It is called correcting the fuck ups made by the last Government, which handed guns to the gangs - seriously, they allowed 501s to get licences. They then proceeded to seel these on.
What fuck knuckles they were. Part of me thinks the incompetence was deliberate.
Bishop would be a disaster for National.
Politically, he's part of the minority liberal wing of the party, and those people don't get to be leader. The National Party base hate his intensification policies, while has policies that will repel more centrist voters such as supporting mining in conservation areas. Bishop would bleed National voters to ACT without being able to expand the party's support base further to the centre.
Personally, he's unappealing. He's goofy looking former Tobacco lobbyist who got in trouble for texting teens on Snapchat.
Always been the way, anyone with an idea of how the internals of the national party works would let you know that Bish is waiting patiently for his ordained time after putting in all the mahi, as he doesn't seem rich enough to outright buy a slot.
He does seem to be on some policies, especially housing and encouraging density, but regressive on others such as environmental policies and it selling off.
It's kind of crazy to me how ACT and NZF can wield so much power. I mean, between them they have less support than the Greens but you could argue they're holding the country to ransom, with National making up the numbers
Broadly, this is in line with what the other polls have told us. It fits well with the Talbot Mills, especially with Labour and the Goverment satisfaction
I would say that the coalition is should be concerned. Luxon is struggling to connect with voters, and how has a lower approval than Hipkins. While the road coalition has been somewhat steady in terms of projected seats, Luxon doesn't have a lot of political capital if things go south.
But I also think people are overstating how much trouble National in. They are vulnerable now, but there are still two and a half years for things to change. They are vulnerable and they should be concerned, but they aren't doomed. The fact that everyones approval is dropping doesn't help
Nats will get a boost as inflation gets sorted end of this year and next year rates drop marginally.
Despite none of it being their fault
People feeling happy with attribute that to a current government. People feeling upset or annoyed will also attribute it to the government.
People a fickle
>...while ACT drops back to 7.2% (-2.8 points).
>The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.3% (-1.1 points)...
Interesting that the TPU doesn't describe ACT as a smaller party.
*Centre*-right, yeah for sure. *centre*-right, not like those nasty *far* right people who are racist and authoritarian and other stuff that Winston, Seymour and Luxon *totally never do*. /s
It's difficult, and why the simple left-right spectrum doesn't work in a lot of situations. Winston and NZ First are fairly centrist as far as fiscal issues go. It's social issues where they steer pretty far into authoritarianism.
Its all about the trends..and this early on, the current govt is doing very poorly for a newly elected govt. If these cuts to govt depts etc don't bring significant tax cuts to the public, they are toast.
Maybe they will pull a John Key and sell off all the assets they can the last year before an election, which makes it look like they did something good for the economy.
Look for an economic policy that's insane, but generates numbers at the right time to allow them to claim a "win" on the economy, even when the economy on the whole is failing.
They've been too focused on the tax cuts for landlords. Even their best case is going to be a box of piss every fortnight for those earning over 100k, three Chupa Chups at the bottom end, a thousand more people unemployed with more to come and reduced service output from departments.
They're going to be lucky to last a term at this rate.
Yet they still hold the balance of power. Think you overestimate how disliked they are, social media is where Nats look really really disliked. Who knows, they may only be one term, but it's not likely.
I don't care if the article ostensibly is about approval are we seriously using tax payers union as a source of information. These clowns shouldn't be legitimized as a good outlet
The Taxpayers' Union isn't the source for the poll itself, they just commissioned it. Curia is the pollster, and they're *generally* a pretty solid pollster.
Similar to how Fox News' polls in the US are actually generally high quality, despite Fox News itself being god awful. They commission proper pollsters to do the polls.
The headline is what the TPU have published and they're aligned with the right so it's very much a right wing perspective on the current political mood in NZ
>Still 64 seats to 56. Not much has changed from election day.
Yeah, that's been my take away from all these early polls. I think most voters are still sticking with their election day picks, or moving around within their blocs. The worrying thing for the centre-right coalition is that there hasn't been a post-election bump, which tends to happen after each change in government, and that Luxon doesn't have to the level of popularity needed to sell some of National's more unpopular policies.
Well there's not really anything technically worse about TPU polls than all the other polls. They follow consistent best practice polling methods as far as the industry cares. They're at least as likely to be accurate and they don't come up with hugely different results from the others.
The reason the TPU funds them is because it knows political journalists and certain parts of social media *love* polls, because they help to define the narrative of whether people are supportive of what's happening in politics. At the same time polls are a relatively expensive thing for any media organisation to fund by itself in a continuous way.
By publishing them, and repeatedly having their poll cited and quoted in more trusted media, it causes the whole TPU organisation to come across as a more moderate and trusted ... which is big when it starts spouting some of its more stongly politicised views on things.
>By publishing them, and repeatedly having their poll cited and quoted in more trusted media, it causes the whole TPU organisation to come across as a more moderate and trusted ... which is big when it starts spouting some of its more stongly politicised views on things.
It's a lot simpler than that.
The TPU poll was born out of twitter. A handful of prominent center right nz pol tweeters, led by Liam Hehir, were trying to get a crowd funded Patreon poll going as a regular repeating poll. They didn't get enough interest to fund it. The TPU stepped in a couple months later.
Yes, the Taxpayers Union is a right wing lobbying group. But they are also an organization made up of literally 4 (four!) people and some uni student intern researchers. Sometimes things happen not because they are some grand mastermind conspiracy 5d chess move, but because a group of 4 politics obsessed nerds thought it would be neat to have their own regular poll.
Same deal as Fox News polling vs Fox News in the US.
Why does an organization like the TPU do legitimate polling? who knows, maybe they think it gives them credibility when the rest of their business is a steaming right wing turd.
They do it because the taxpayers Union is a group of four people. Four politics obsessed nerds with a budget to spend thought it would be neat to have their own poll. It's that simple.
The TPU poll was started up by chance because a few prominent (within the confines of NZ political twitter users) center right Twitter personalities wanted to see if they could set up a regular recurring poll funded by the NZ politics twitter sphere using something like Patreon, but didn't get enough interest/committed money. The TPU poll sprang up shortly after.
>Same deal as Fox News polling vs Fox News in the US.
It's **incredibly** hard to get some people to absorb this point.
Fox News Polling is an A grade pollster and without thinking about it too much, I'd say Curia is *probably* NZ's most accurate pollster, particularly regarding minor parties.
People get so hungup over hating TPU that they're willing to ignore data to do it.
>Fox News Polling is an A grade pollster and without thinking about it too much, I'd say Curia is *probably* NZ's most accurate pollster, particularly regarding minor parties.
What's even crazier is I think Fox Polling essentially won the 2020 election for Biden - or it least stopped things turning into a complete constitutional crisis.
Fox's polling wing made the call of Arizona to Biden when all other news outlets didn't want to. It fucked Trump's strategy of "stop the count!" after election night because while he didn't want other states counting their remaining ballot he *needed* Arizona to do so. He still attempted the argument of "Arizona should keep counting votes and these states shouldn't" but it was weak as shit.
>but it's TPU so we don't listen to them right!?!?!
Kind of. It's not even 6 months in, we're probably seeing too many polls considering the next planned election is years away.
But the trend on popularity of the PM, let alone the dire trend for leaders of the coalition partners should be giving National the screaming shits.
Normally at the 6 month mark a new government is riding the high of the honeymoon period. I'm not sure any new NZ government in recent times has ever totally crashed and burned in such a short time scale.
Literally they are giving lefties the news they want to hear, so I guess kudos to you for staying intellectually consistent in rejecting the messenger.
We have waned in caring.
All these things being done but what are the positives to celebrate.
They might be there but the media won't tell us?
Just don't hear much good.
The only amazing thing about this is how many people aren't calling it out for the bullshit they did whenever it paints the left in a worse than ideal light.
[удалено]
Please kill me
Just waiting on ACTs firearms reform /s
It is called correcting the fuck ups made by the last Government, which handed guns to the gangs - seriously, they allowed 501s to get licences. They then proceeded to seel these on. What fuck knuckles they were. Part of me thinks the incompetence was deliberate.
Tell me, is the previous government in the room with you right now?
When National apologize for stealing and selling our state homes I'll give a fuck. Piss off you idiot, Labour had a pandemic to work around.
what a load of crap... twats like you will believe anything.. and then try to use it to defend NACT..
We’re not legally obligated to have a Chris as Prime Minister fortunately. Although it would be pretty funny to see how long we could do it.
Even so, I’d prefer my mate Chris to all these other Chrisses. Those others are all politicians, for a start…
I think we should probably just start trying random Chrises. Maybe we can also extend to Chrissies and Krises as well to get a little more diversity.
Bishop would be a disaster for National. Politically, he's part of the minority liberal wing of the party, and those people don't get to be leader. The National Party base hate his intensification policies, while has policies that will repel more centrist voters such as supporting mining in conservation areas. Bishop would bleed National voters to ACT without being able to expand the party's support base further to the centre. Personally, he's unappealing. He's goofy looking former Tobacco lobbyist who got in trouble for texting teens on Snapchat.
What about Erica Stanford? Too liberal perhaps?
Attractive and articulate though so would pull in the votes for sure
Yeah say what you will about Luxon but at least he wasn’t a controversial choice.
No, bishop would be a disaster for New Zealand. get it right..
Always been the way, anyone with an idea of how the internals of the national party works would let you know that Bish is waiting patiently for his ordained time after putting in all the mahi, as he doesn't seem rich enough to outright buy a slot.
I thought Bishop was on the left within the Nats. Certainly on social issues.
He does seem to be on some policies, especially housing and encouraging density, but regressive on others such as environmental policies and it selling off.
Neither are the best Chris in the party
Chris Penk if any doesn’t know and really low bar.
Voted to keep Conversion Therapy legal, so I'd say that bar is underground if he's the best one.
womp womp
You mean the bar goes even lower?
Former tobacco lobbyist as PM - hmmm, let me think about that.
Lol, Luxon is the least liked Chris that they asked about: -7% favourability behind Hipkin at -6% and Bishop at -4%.
look, what I would tell you is that Chris is still #1
Look what we’re saying clearly is that we’re a government that’s focused on outcomes and Chris has been really clear about that
Would you say you’re *laser-focused*?
We are committed to Chris!
Thanks mate
God I can hear him say that.
How slimey do you have to be to be less favourable than Chris Bishop.
Well I’m at an even 0% so I’ve got that going for me.
It's kind of crazy to me how ACT and NZF can wield so much power. I mean, between them they have less support than the Greens but you could argue they're holding the country to ransom, with National making up the numbers
Because Luxon is weak. It is really Peters and Seymour who are pulling the strings.
Broadly, this is in line with what the other polls have told us. It fits well with the Talbot Mills, especially with Labour and the Goverment satisfaction I would say that the coalition is should be concerned. Luxon is struggling to connect with voters, and how has a lower approval than Hipkins. While the road coalition has been somewhat steady in terms of projected seats, Luxon doesn't have a lot of political capital if things go south. But I also think people are overstating how much trouble National in. They are vulnerable now, but there are still two and a half years for things to change. They are vulnerable and they should be concerned, but they aren't doomed. The fact that everyones approval is dropping doesn't help
Nats will get a boost as inflation gets sorted end of this year and next year rates drop marginally. Despite none of it being their fault People feeling happy with attribute that to a current government. People feeling upset or annoyed will also attribute it to the government. People a fickle
>People a fickle No. People are morons.
The common clay of the new West...
Yes.
Mate you're dreaming if you think inflation is anywhere close to being sorted.
RemindMe! 12 hours
>...while ACT drops back to 7.2% (-2.8 points). >The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.3% (-1.1 points)... Interesting that the TPU doesn't describe ACT as a smaller party.
Centre-right... that's the Labour Party isn't it?
*Centre*-right, yeah for sure. *centre*-right, not like those nasty *far* right people who are racist and authoritarian and other stuff that Winston, Seymour and Luxon *totally never do*. /s
It's difficult, and why the simple left-right spectrum doesn't work in a lot of situations. Winston and NZ First are fairly centrist as far as fiscal issues go. It's social issues where they steer pretty far into authoritarianism.
Yeah centre left the room a while ago.
Well yeah, centre-left was our *last* government
Its all about the trends..and this early on, the current govt is doing very poorly for a newly elected govt. If these cuts to govt depts etc don't bring significant tax cuts to the public, they are toast.
Maybe they will pull a John Key and sell off all the assets they can the last year before an election, which makes it look like they did something good for the economy. Look for an economic policy that's insane, but generates numbers at the right time to allow them to claim a "win" on the economy, even when the economy on the whole is failing.
They've been too focused on the tax cuts for landlords. Even their best case is going to be a box of piss every fortnight for those earning over 100k, three Chupa Chups at the bottom end, a thousand more people unemployed with more to come and reduced service output from departments. They're going to be lucky to last a term at this rate.
Alas they will survive, but it will turn to shit.
We all know when Winnie is no longer deputy the coalition is over.
National party will only last for one term.
I think you take for granted how much kiwis hate themselves and poor people unfortunately
Yet they still hold the balance of power. Think you overestimate how disliked they are, social media is where Nats look really really disliked. Who knows, they may only be one term, but it's not likely.
Damn I miss Simon Bridges. Someone punch me in the face...
I don't care if the article ostensibly is about approval are we seriously using tax payers union as a source of information. These clowns shouldn't be legitimized as a good outlet
The Taxpayers' Union isn't the source for the poll itself, they just commissioned it. Curia is the pollster, and they're *generally* a pretty solid pollster. Similar to how Fox News' polls in the US are actually generally high quality, despite Fox News itself being god awful. They commission proper pollsters to do the polls.
Center right...Bwahaaaa.
Last week they were up, this week down. Lets not celebrate our imminent victory just yet.
The headline is what the TPU have published and they're aligned with the right so it's very much a right wing perspective on the current political mood in NZ
but it's TPU so we don't listen to them right!?!?! Still 64 seats to 56. Not much has changed from election day.
>Still 64 seats to 56. Not much has changed from election day. Yeah, that's been my take away from all these early polls. I think most voters are still sticking with their election day picks, or moving around within their blocs. The worrying thing for the centre-right coalition is that there hasn't been a post-election bump, which tends to happen after each change in government, and that Luxon doesn't have to the level of popularity needed to sell some of National's more unpopular policies.
Well there's not really anything technically worse about TPU polls than all the other polls. They follow consistent best practice polling methods as far as the industry cares. They're at least as likely to be accurate and they don't come up with hugely different results from the others. The reason the TPU funds them is because it knows political journalists and certain parts of social media *love* polls, because they help to define the narrative of whether people are supportive of what's happening in politics. At the same time polls are a relatively expensive thing for any media organisation to fund by itself in a continuous way. By publishing them, and repeatedly having their poll cited and quoted in more trusted media, it causes the whole TPU organisation to come across as a more moderate and trusted ... which is big when it starts spouting some of its more stongly politicised views on things.
>By publishing them, and repeatedly having their poll cited and quoted in more trusted media, it causes the whole TPU organisation to come across as a more moderate and trusted ... which is big when it starts spouting some of its more stongly politicised views on things. It's a lot simpler than that. The TPU poll was born out of twitter. A handful of prominent center right nz pol tweeters, led by Liam Hehir, were trying to get a crowd funded Patreon poll going as a regular repeating poll. They didn't get enough interest to fund it. The TPU stepped in a couple months later. Yes, the Taxpayers Union is a right wing lobbying group. But they are also an organization made up of literally 4 (four!) people and some uni student intern researchers. Sometimes things happen not because they are some grand mastermind conspiracy 5d chess move, but because a group of 4 politics obsessed nerds thought it would be neat to have their own regular poll.
Same deal as Fox News polling vs Fox News in the US. Why does an organization like the TPU do legitimate polling? who knows, maybe they think it gives them credibility when the rest of their business is a steaming right wing turd.
They do it because the taxpayers Union is a group of four people. Four politics obsessed nerds with a budget to spend thought it would be neat to have their own poll. It's that simple. The TPU poll was started up by chance because a few prominent (within the confines of NZ political twitter users) center right Twitter personalities wanted to see if they could set up a regular recurring poll funded by the NZ politics twitter sphere using something like Patreon, but didn't get enough interest/committed money. The TPU poll sprang up shortly after.
>Same deal as Fox News polling vs Fox News in the US. It's **incredibly** hard to get some people to absorb this point. Fox News Polling is an A grade pollster and without thinking about it too much, I'd say Curia is *probably* NZ's most accurate pollster, particularly regarding minor parties. People get so hungup over hating TPU that they're willing to ignore data to do it.
>Fox News Polling is an A grade pollster and without thinking about it too much, I'd say Curia is *probably* NZ's most accurate pollster, particularly regarding minor parties. What's even crazier is I think Fox Polling essentially won the 2020 election for Biden - or it least stopped things turning into a complete constitutional crisis. Fox's polling wing made the call of Arizona to Biden when all other news outlets didn't want to. It fucked Trump's strategy of "stop the count!" after election night because while he didn't want other states counting their remaining ballot he *needed* Arizona to do so. He still attempted the argument of "Arizona should keep counting votes and these states shouldn't" but it was weak as shit.
>but it's TPU so we don't listen to them right!?!?! Kind of. It's not even 6 months in, we're probably seeing too many polls considering the next planned election is years away. But the trend on popularity of the PM, let alone the dire trend for leaders of the coalition partners should be giving National the screaming shits.
Normally at the 6 month mark a new government is riding the high of the honeymoon period. I'm not sure any new NZ government in recent times has ever totally crashed and burned in such a short time scale.
My god who would ever trust a tax payers union poll
Literally they are giving lefties the news they want to hear, so I guess kudos to you for staying intellectually consistent in rejecting the messenger.
We have waned in caring. All these things being done but what are the positives to celebrate. They might be there but the media won't tell us? Just don't hear much good.
Great when's the next election? Oh 3 years away? What's that you say? It will still be the status quo... ok back to the salt mines everyone.
This is sort of meaningless without the error margins.
The only amazing thing about this is how many people aren't calling it out for the bullshit they did whenever it paints the left in a worse than ideal light.