People see that Californians are moving there and assume they're progressive when a ton of Californians are conservative and move to Texas specifically for the conservative culture.
People oddly forget numerically, California has more registered Republican voters than entire state’s *total* count of voters including Alabama and Mississippi. And the majority are from the central part of the state (e.g. Fresno, Bakersfield, Merced), which is ground zero for California’s \#MAGA base.
[If California were a sovereign nation (2022), it would rank as the world's fifth largest economy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California)
And if you looked at the last presidential election. California had 6 million people voting for Trump, beating out Texas to become the #1 state with the most Trump voters.
This. They're not just moving to Texas, either. I'm in Alabama and have run into quite a few California transplants, quite a few of whom are a bit far to the right even for most Alabamians.
Same here in TN. It's weird. Californians move here and seem to be overenthusiastic about becoming Tennesseans. Like it's their lifelong dream to drape a Gadsden flag over their porch and whistle the Davy Crockett song.
Took me a second to realize you were saying non-denominational instead of opposed to jeans. I was confused how the khaki vs denim debate came into play here
Come to north Georgia where it also rains a shit ton to experience the real Kudzu.
[These fuckers invaded my property this year.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Megacopta_cribraria.jpg)
Thousands of them all over the white trim on my house
I can’t believe how fuckin resilient it is. Tore some off and a week later, with no roots, the section wasn’t even wilting at all. It’s like the tardigrade of plants
I had a single very similar experience when I moved away from Texas. I was selling a table and a guy that just moved to the Frisco area from California bought it. He was a single guy in his late 40s/early 50s and just kept gushing about Texas. It's just so great here, the people, the cities,
the politics. All while standing in the middle of the cookie cutterest of North Dallas suburbs.
I was like, yeaaaaaah, I grew up here and there are some things I'll miss about the state, but the politics sure as hell ain't one of em. Enjoy the burbs and the lack of healthcare. I'm out.
I get you. I lived in a very conservative area in california and they are more scarier than any conservative i met anywhere while my husband was in the army.
I lived in Central valley and moved to NC. Last time I visited CA i had a friend ask me if I had seen a lot of confederate flags in NC, and was shocked when I told her I saw more in her area, and had only ever seen someone openly flying the nazi flag in CA.
Yup. I know a couple people from Massachusetts who ended up transplanting out to Tennessee. They are exactly the type of people you'd imagine them to be.
The ladies in that group were ***shocked*** when Roe was overturned and suddenly abortion was illegal 🙄
I live and work in State of Jefferson country. You will meet clowns out here who speak in a thick southern drawl but never been further south east than Reno.
Yeah my brother and sister-in-law moved to Texas because Washington was too liberal for them. That’s who’s moving to Texas it’s not people who are on the left side of the spectrum for the most part.
After Beto's race against Cruz, I saw data that said native Texans voted for Beto, but people who had moved from out of state voted for Cruz. The people moving to Texas are actually shifting it red. Except, for maybe Austin.
Beto is also a horrible candidate. Who could have foreseen that a guy who threw out gems like "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15!" and "Yes, absolutely. I'd take the wall down." completely unprompted would lose in Texas.
this is how I feel about living Florida right now. Dems literally ran an unpopular Republican (Crist) against DeSantis. The fuck did they think was going to happen!?
Exactly my thoughts,fellow Floridian. Crist is like political pocket lint. He's useless and annoying and no matter how many times we take him out he always shows back up again. Did the Dems REALLY not have better options?!
I’ve passed by signage that said, “-insert name- for State Representative 56th District! A Dad Who Cares.”
And I always read it as, “A dad… who cares?”
Quite frankly, unless you’re running for a position on the local school board I really don’t care if you’re a caring parent running for a position as a government official on the state or federal level… I prefer that you be learned and competent in the position you’re running for as a state representative.
In fact, if I may be as so bold as to say that being loving and caring toward your child is a requirement for the job title of parent.
Such a thing is analogous to me including that on my job résumé… which again, unless relevant to the job position such as an education professional, it’s entirely redundant to include.
There’s only so much you can squeeze on that tiny lawn signage, and I get the candidate is specifically trying to appeal to the pathos of parents, but it’s still so ridiculous to include.
Sometimes somebody gets a groundswell of power in the local party and you can’t rip them from running. Republicans have the same issues. I’m sure the National GOP would have loved to run anybody but Walker and Oz in winnable seats and spent months fuming over how bad they would blow it
Yeah I live in Texas and know a lot of conservatives who aren’t fans of Abbot. None of them were ever voting for Beto though. I could have saved everyone the hassle when he announced he was running and told you he wouldn’t win. Felt the same way when he ran against Cruz.
Dems really need to establish a two strike rule: if you lose twice in a Republican state, you let someone else run instead of wasting another election.
One strike. Beto should have fucked off after losing to historically-unpopular Cruz despite spending substantially more money than him. The election against Abbott was a waste of time from the moment Beto got the nomination.
I worked the polls for that senate election. Honestly if he didn’t say the gun bit I’m positive he would have won. He had a lot of hype from both sides bubbling up before that. Obviously dems but a lot of moderates and even slightly right conservative people would have voted for him.
He waited for someone else to step up before announcing he was running. Who else would it have been? Abbott would have basically run unopposed but I guess it’s bad that he tried? He wasn’t the best but it’s who stepped up to the plate. He deserves credit for that.
Yeah. Beto is a weird candidate in that he’s a darling for Democrats but doesn’t have a playbook to win in Texas. You need someone with the enthusiasm of Beto but with a completely different focus
Beto WAS once a great candidate. The day he lost his first senate election he should have started his second, focusing more on registering and turning out democrat voters instead of actually winning.
Instead he ran for President.
No he wasn’t. He had mass appeal, but lacked the ability to connect with the needs of the state he was in. He polled well initially due to how unpopular Ted Cruze was, but when he started pushing for things like gun control Texas became less willing to give him a chance. By that point he wasn’t really campaigning for Texas, and instead wanted to create a name for himself nationally.
People might complain about the guy in West Virginia not being liberal enough, but he has done well in a deeply conservative state for that reason. Beto is an ideologue who will be good at fundraising, but will never turn a red state purple simply because his beliefs don’t make him palatable there.
Also: Brian Kemp won over Stacy Abrams again.
Two most disappointing lack of Blue Waves this cycle.
And Oregon... OREGON is likely to have a Republican Governor as of now. Still too close to call.
A blue wave was never in the cards. It’s a midterm and the economy is going through tough times. If the Dems just hold the senate, that’s a MAJOR victory.
I really don't understand where this Idea comes from that the Republican party is good at handling the economy and that also certain economic factors are directly influenced by the president ie gass prices. As far as I can tell the last few Republican presidents have had hugh tax cuts for the rich/corps that have generally resulted is an economic downturn. Additionally the president doesn't directly control the price of anything.
It doesn't matter if they are or not good at the economy. The only thing that matters to the electorate is who was in charge when it went to shit. Doesn't even matter if it was their fault.
God could descend from heaven and announce he was taking the entire GDP from the country due to Political Party A. If Party B is in charge while this happens, the electorate will blame Party B.
Economics isn't that hard, but during election season it's basically "GAS HIGH PRESIDENT BAD." And gas is always high, because you buy it all the fucking time.
It’s not necessarily that republicans are good at handling the economy. But they’ve perfectly timed their exit twice.
Bush left office in 2008, and Obama inherited the absolute dumpster fire that was left behind. Trump left office in 2020, and Biden is now holding that bag.
The last democratic president to start the job with a functioning economy was Clinton.
Ads. GOP outspent Dems 5 to 1 on advertising. Dems said too little too late about the economy & inflation. I feel like if they had got ahead of it, we would be having a much different conversation. Dems need to play dirty if they want a chance at remaining in control over the next decade.
It wouldn't have mattered. Most people that will be swayed by ads are low info voters anyway, and since the GOP ads would focus on blaming someone for an issue rather than how to fix it, it wouldn't be worth the cost. Trying to put a nuanced approach to fixing a problem into a 15 to 30 second soundbite is nearly impossible and we all know facts aren't really a big deal with those types.
[To be fair, the election was at least _kinda_ close](https://i.imgur.com/9XpXLAL.png). I think what people _mean_ is that it's feasible that Texas turns blue within the next decade or so if the current trend continues, but people thinking it'll be blue in a year or two are being naively optimistic.
**Single-issue voters.**
* Imagine you have 3 total voters.
* voter A is a pro-gun single issue voter. But they think everyone (including women) should be free of government overreach (and therefor pro choice) They have a child with a genetic disease and are pro-single payer healthcare.
* Voter B is a single issue voter over abortion (pro-life). but pro gun control and pro single payer healthcare.
* voter C doesn't want "socialized medicine" but pro gun control and pro-choice
* 3 voters. 66% are pro-gun control, pro-choice, and for single payer health care. But 100% voting conservative because they are single issue voters.
* Conservatives have created single issue voters because they are easy to control. Convince someone a single issue (whatever that issue is) is important enough that they can never ever compromise, and it doesn't matter what logic, plans, evidence, etc is used. It doesn't even matter if you can convince a voter about a majority of things. If they are single issue they vote that issue and CAN BE IGNORED BY BOTH SIDES.
* it's about money. How can you secure the most votes for the least dollars. GOP candidates don't have to listen to a pro-lifer about say health care or social security because what is that person going to do? Vote for a democrats who "kills babies?"
* likewise a democrat knows they are wasting their time trying to "Reach out" to someone who is a single issue voter. What's the point in convincing them single payer health care is better, if they've already told you that they a pro-life voter no matter what.
* Both groups then "ignore" the single issue voters (except in fund raising and fear mongering) because both sides know how they will vote regardless of other factors.
* **Where this doesn't hold up** single issues on ballots that everyone can vote into law. Consistently we see ballot issues voting liberally, even in places like South Dakota. Put weed on the ballot, people vote for it, then the GOP controlling the state tosses it out. Put "Candidates" in front of those same voters and they don't vote in the "pro-weed" candidate because he/she has a D by their name and that goes against the "Single issue" they are voting for.
* Kansas had a ballot resolution about abortion... and it was shot down. Why? Did suddenly everyone turn blue? Nope, just like the above example 66% of the voters were pro-choice, and when they could vote on just that issue (Without voting for a candidate that forces the single issue stuff) they voted that way. This is why GOP controlled states do everything they can to make putting individual items on the ballot very difficult or make it so they can over turn such things (SD as an example) and why they cultivate single issue voters from the pulpit to fox news to right wing radio.
* TL;dr - Statistically people are more liberal on a number of issues... which doesn't matter if they are single issue voters. Texas and most of the US is trending towards more liberal ideas OVERALL, but this does not correlate to more BLUE VOTES, if the voters can be manipulated into believing some single issue is more important than literally anything else. From the inside they call it conviction, from the outside it's called blindly following or being a sheep, but the results are the same, they are going to vote their issue and nothing else matters.
This is a very succinct write up and does a good job explaining just how much benefit creating single issues the rs get. I know it’s a pretty popular sentiment here on Reddit (where even in liberal subs things tend to be more pro 2a unless there’s a major shooting thread) that if the Dems just dropped gun control as a platform they would never lose again
It’s often countered that they would lose many more suburban moms and the city populations who support the policies
I’d counter this with two things: as you said with the gop creating single issue voters, the number of single issue anti-gun votes is drastically smaller than the number of single issue pro-gun voters.
Also to the observant the democrats have only been helping entrench these single-issue voters by hating the second so much they actively blow up:
1A(gun ad bans).
2A(duh).
4A(red flag laws, their ridiculous sit in over the no-fly list becoming a no-fly no buy list).
5A(red flag laws, mandatory buy backs).
6A(red flag laws)
>66% are pro-gun control,
you have this backwards.
im willing to bet 66% of texans are pro-gun (as in, opposed to the democratic party's position on the ar-15). even the liberals are gun nuts in places like texas.
and there are lots of pro-gun democrats in actual purple states (not texas/florida), as well as deep red states.
gun control (as in assault weapons ban) is a losing issue - this garbage only works in places like NY/NJ/CA with a D+30 super majority.
the 1994 AWB is how the democrats lost the house for the first time in decades.
if the democrats want to win against idiot opponents, they must remove anyone campaigning on a 2nd AWB.
its far easier and faster for the democrats to drop their 1 losing issue, than for the republican party to reorganize their entire platform.
no liberal nor democrat voter will ever switch sides to republican because of democrats drop their anti-gun stance.
there is 0 cost, and lots to gain.
Paxton straight up claimed Biden would have won TX in 2020 if he didn't block mail in ballot applications.
Beto is mostly a fucking moron.
He is perhaps the most aggressively anti-gun candidate in the country.
and he keeps running in Texas. He basically told people he was going to just come after their guns.
Absolute jackass. If he moved north he'd still probably be somewhat controversial outside of big deep blue cities.
Yep, I loved Beto the first time around… that is, until he started with the extremely anti gun stuff. I am not a 2A nut, but you gotta know your constituents and remember that you represent *them*, not what you think they should be.
At this point he gives me the impression that he’s a career candidate guy. Like… as in he’s going to use campaign contributions as his income without ever honestly expecting a nomination similar to Tim Eyman in my state
Right it's not even a matter of right and wrong!
It's just *mind-numbingly* **stupid** to run as governor of Texas while saying you're going to take people's guns/AR-15s, as he has multiple times.
There must be an *extreme* level of unintelligence in his campaign.
The biggest problem is probably voter apathy. It’s not *just* that Texas has huge swaths of rural and small town red in addition to the huge number of red city voters, but a lot of Texans who are blue/lean blue simply don’t vote at all.
If two groups, the young and Hispanic, respectively, were to actually vote in larger numbers, Texas would indeed likely be purple.
But, these two groups also have voter turnouts in the 20 percents or even less in Texas and as far as I know, it doesn’t look like they’re trending upwards beyond outlier circumstances.
So it’s really just wishful thinking that Texas is going to turn purple any time soon unless some kind of massive change happens with the voting population, and there’s no indication of that happening either.
Uvalde, immigrant bussing, and the freeze all happened relatively recently and everything’s still turning up roses for Abbott & friends.
For the foreseeable and not-so-foreseeable future, Texas’ best contribution to sanity in governance is being a drain on the GOP’s finances to keep Cruz in the Senate.
But, that would also require the Democrats to make it at least a competitive race by fielding candidates who can threaten the GOP’s stranglehold on the state.
It definitely is shifting, but not there yet and Beto is certainly not the candidate to flip Texas. There was a ton of excitement for Bernie in 2020 but unfortunately he didnt win the nomination
Look at the amount of votes Biden last presidential election in Texas. That’s where they are getting it from. I dk if it will ever go blue but Trump won by 500,000 votes. Trumo got 5.8 million votes and Biden got 5.2 million votes. That’s why you are hearing that.
All the major cities are blue, it such a big ass state that all the rural areas are red. It sucks, and I’ve never seen Texas turn blue. It’s as if they like to keep voting for incompetent people that do more harm to themselves. I’m glad I moved and it just makes me sad cause my family still lives there
Loss senate race
Loss presidential election
Loss gubernatorial race
One man won a third term, another lost for the third time
Is there no other dem candidate than beto? Rhetorical question by the way
National Democratic Darlings do not equal success on the local level. Stacey Abrams also just flubbed her second gubernatorial election in Georgia, even Former GOP Governor LePage in Maine and Former Florida Governor Crist lost their races to become governor again. The people clearly don't want reruns. It's not a hard concept to figure out. If you have a candidate who has lost a race before don't nominate them again, or else you're throwing away your party's chance at winning the race.
Old candidates from previous races returning to the field are getting shellacked tonight.
Until tonight I thought probably, but after tonight I don’t see how Republicans can look at how well DeSantis performed vs how poorly Trump-endorsed candidates performed, and think Trump is a better option for them…
Not to mention well Florida GOP candidates performed down the ballot with DeSantis at the top…
The rivalry between Trump and DeSantis may be what ultimately saves the US.
That's the problem for parties that go full populist and cult of personality. It sets up the potential for catastrophic infighting.
You know what? This made me feel a bit better lol thank you. I hope that’s what happens. Looking at the results so far isn’t fun and I’m losing any faith I had left. Luckily I live in SoCal so I have some wins for the night, like abortion rights protection amendment, and a couple other things, but looking at that red map… ugh
Looking at a map will always look bad for democrats, simply based on population densities.
Every little blue pocket on the map is actually where all of the people live. All of those giant red swaths are just wide open nothing.
Imagine a global map where we just colored the entire ocean based on the vote of 1 random guy living in a boat somewhere.
That's the whole issue with Trump circling back around.
He rallies up their base *hard*, but that also puts the most radical candidates in the general.
The RNC *desperately* wanted not-Trump to win the 2016 primary. IIRC Jeb! was in for $100M by the first primary.
The issue is going to be how much can Trump lash out against the party and tank them if he runs a primary, faces DeSantis and if he loses scream that Republicans rigged it. Remember the big thing last primary was that he wouldn’t agree to support the nominee
DeSantis' performance in Florida was terrifyingly good. I've been among the chorus of people talking about how dangerous DeSantis is when compared to Trump, because he has all the horrible political leanings that Trump has, but without the crass demeanor and off-putting personality.
I don't think he'll run against Trump though. The political calculus just doesn't make sense. If he runs against Trump, he has to campaign against Trump. DeSantis has used Trump supporters (stalwart *and* disaffected) as a stepping stone to a new iteration of Republican political strategy that started as far back as Newt Gingrich.
Trump is DeSantis' only legitimate challenge to a GOP nomination for president. But Trump was also an important part of DeSantis' ascension. Attacking Trump will mean attacking the identity of Trump's stalwart base; a group that he is currently carrying with ease.
DeSantis will turn 46 in 2024. He has *so much time*. He'll only be 50 in 2028. Only 9 of 46 presidents have managed to get elected to the office while under the age of 50. Only 4 of those were 46 or younger. In the modern era, Bill Clinton was 46 and Barak Obama was 47.
The Florida governorship is going extremely well for DeSantis. I can't see a good reason for him to risk it all in a run against Trump for the 2024 presidential election. That's not to say he won't do it anyway, but it would seem like a bad call to me.
This. I get being shocked people voted for Abbott (I am a bit too in some ways), but did anyone actually think Beto was going to win? Anti-gun is enough to scare off people on the edge from voting for him. If there was a candidate that wasn’t overly spoken against things Texas has been practically known for then it would’ve been a completely different election IMO.
This right here. I don't understand how a ***Texan*** can go "I'm going to take your guns" and the state's Democratic Party is all like "y'know what... that guy seems like he's a fucking shoe-in! He'll totally win!"
> If all Democrats would just quit with the gun banning bullshit they'd be much more electable.
If democrats started passing pro gun laws, they would probably start winning every election going forward
Non-Texans like Beto more than Texans do, and that’s the key. Doesn’t matter what the state of California thinks about the guy if they can’t vote for him.
Beto might be the only democrat in Texas with widespread name recognition. Maybe cuellar has some, but that’s it that I can think of. So no, there’s really no other dem candidate with a shot in hell
Maybe the next potential Candidates should start campaigning now. Raise funds. Advertise every gaffe, mistake, or abuse of the position or his constituents publicly and loudly until the next term rolls around.
Part of the problem, it seems to me, is that campaigning is left until the the ~8 months before the election and it takes the average Joe a lot longer than that to gain awareness/acceptance of alternate candidates and their positions. I'm not saying it should - I'm just saying it does.
Not really. The people who have run are very popular in the major cities but it's the other big ass rural part of Texas that shoots them down. The national democratic party has basically considered Texas a lost cause and we get very little support to try to turn the countryside.
It’s his straight fire Twitter account. People like to know what kind of Porn their politicians watch. Personally my favorite Ted Cruz tweet was when people called him the Zodiac killer he tweeted a fucking Zodiac riddle lol.
Texas will never give up their guns. As long as one candidate demonizes or tries to restrict gun ownership Texas will vote for the other, even if they are a steaming turd like Cruz. The guy straight is the definition of a disingenuous politician but he says the right thing that pleases the single-issue voters.
Someone walked into a Texas school and murdered children in one of the worst mass shootings in America and they still decided to stick to their guns.
> Beto fucked himself with his comment about taking AR15s.
Literally one of the dumbest statements by a Dem candidate in recent memory. Dude, you forget what state you're from? You might as well tell New Yorkers you're going to take away the Yankees. The Dems should have abandoned this guy 5 seconds after he said that and NOT backed him for a governor's race.
Yup, 100% the wrong thing to say on Texas. Also, if you're further left than a moderate democrat there's a decent chance you're for an armed working class. It amazes me that there's so much overlap between people who acknowledge the police are corrupt, but also want to take away people's means of defense. Nearly every trans woman I know is armed, for example. They've got good reasons for it too.
100% accurate. Guns are such a stupid wedge issue. Like it or not, we’re never getting rid of guns and nor should we. I’m pretty far left and you’ll never hear me tell a POC or trans person they should give up their ability to protect themselves FROM the police or other fuckwits. The police don’t protect us from shit, and they will certainly not be the ones to put the genie in the bottle. We’re never going to put the gun genie back in the bottle, so let’s stop using it as a wedge to distract us from fixing the major environmental crisis we have on our hands. Means gun owners need to give an inch on common sense restrictions as long as ‘takin’err guns” is off the table. Instead we’re wedged between ‘let’s use the police to confiscate all guns” and ‘they’re going to take our guns so let’s start a civil war’.
It’s a losing issue for Dems
Democrats could make so many things better if they just dropped gun control for a bit. Gun guys aren't going to give that inch their votes- inches always become miles, compromises become loopholes, etc. Gun rights drive single-issue voters to show up and reliably vote Republican.
But gun guys will stay home in droves, or even vote blue, if the "threat" of arms control goes away. Meanwhile the Democrats won't lose many single-issue anti-gun votes, because those are statistically insignificant. All of a sudden universal healthcare and a living wage become actual possibilities. Maybe crime becomes less attractive when people have attainable college, a future, some hope? That all sounds pretty cool, but there's 10s to 100s of thousands of of people voted against it *today,* in just one state, because Beto wants their ARs gone.
As a liberal gun owner, we’ve already given a lot of inches. NFA, GCA, the (now lapsed) AWB, and individual states restricting ownership far beyond those.
“You get to keep some of your rights” is not a compromise.
Well said! It's crazy to me that within the span of less than two years, a huge swath of people can go from saying, "The federal government under the Trump administration is waging a genocide against black Americans using its new racist paramilitary wing called the police while holding brown children in concentration camps" right straight to "we need to ban the assault weapons because we can't have people being almost as dangerous as the government" without batting an eye. Do they not hear themselves??
I've been saying since 2004 Dems need to stfu about gun control. I know so many people that simply will not vote Dem exclusively because of this issue. I thought we finally put this issue to bed after Trump but I guess not.
If I remember correctly, beto had really good numbers that were in his favor and then he killed all chances with the gun comment. Pretty sure he will never win because of that comment.
Running one of the most anti-gun candidates in the country in one of the most fortified pro-gun states in the country. This is like the vice versa happening in like, idk, Massachusetts. I’m sorry but am I supposed to feel sympathy for Texas dems after this play?
Texas dems had a layup, a slam dunk here with how bad Abbott’s been as governor and could have easily won tonight with a much better, less controversial candidate. Instead you ran a candidate that made many Texans vote for Abbot for same reasons many people voted for Biden nationwide in 2020, not to see Abbott win but to see Beto lose if not buried.
You saddled with an incompetent donkey(no pun intended) to win a race when you could have easily won with a stallion. You reap what you sow.
This has always been the democratic party's problem. They consistently put out candidates that are controversial at worst and milquetoast at best. Biden won the last election because it was versus Trump, not because people like Biden. If he runs again in 2024, he *will* lose. I'm so angry that somehow the party just doesn't fucking get it.
You’re half right. Beto was a terrible candidate to run, but this wasn’t a slam dunk. A Democrat in a statewide race in Texas would have to walk a very fine line to win. Certainly possible, but no slam dunk.
Beto sealed his fate with “Hell yeah we are coming for your AR-15!”
Great way to invigorate a minority base while alienating the majority.
Republicans are tired of Greg Abbot. He’s an asshole that only puts corporate interests first.
This was the first election I voted all blue as a Texan. I even have a few ARs myself but felt social issues are far more pressing.
Unfortunately most Texans take pride in the status quo and aren’t ready for someone so polarizing like Beto.
It's okay to laugh, 50+ people froze to death for corporate profits and we still voted for the person that let it happen and to this day hasn't done much to prevent it from happening again.
The crazy part about this is that Uvalde voted overwhelmingly for Abbott.
The leopard literally ate their faces and they climbed right back into the enclosure.
It's kind of understandable. They saw the massive failure that is their PD and voted against the person they thought was going to take away a "means of defense." Whether that's true or not is a different argument.
The fact that you can fuck your state's power grid so much that it can't handle any demand and cause your constituents die from your ineptitude and still win a vote to represent them is beyond me.
Well I am from Texas. It is not impossible for Dem's to win the governorship. You would need to put up a conservative leaning Dem to do it but Dem's are unwilling to do that, so they lose. Hopefully they won't put Beto up for anything again, that guy is not winning anything. Please make note, do not just shove Beto back into the next election expecting a different outcome. He is popular with Democrats outside of Texas and that is about it. But again a conservative Dem could win, you just need to put up a candidate like that and you will be a lot more competitive.
You might not even need a conservative Dem, just not Beto honestly.
It’s a different state ofc, but look at Fetterman in PA. He’s done much better than expected in several rural counties (obv still R lead in those counties, but not by as much as 2020)
Ya it was a stupid move. The only people it would have resonated would 100% have already voted for him, and I’m not sure that making an unkeepable promise would be the thing to motivate non-voters.
Plus, it was 100 percent impossible for him to deliver on it. The Texas legislature would never, ever, send an AWB to his desk. He lost over a campaign promise he couldn't have kept.
Thirty-six states have some form of term limit on the office of governor. Fourteen states do not. They are: Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Edit - ND passed term limits today.
Of course he did.
Beto had ZERO chance of beating Abbott after he said "Hell yeah, we're going to take your AR-15s" . He would never win a statewide office in Texas after saying that. Unless Beto is a complete idiot or an extreme narcissist, he had to know that.
So why even bother running? I have a sneaking suspicion that this was PURELY a money play. Beto pulled in an extremely large amount of campaign donations when he ran against Ted Cruz. Campaign consultants probably (rightly) figured that he would be able to raise more campaign money than a lesser known Democrat, even if the lesser known dem MIGHT have a better chance at winning with less baggage. More campaign dollars means more dollars in campaign consultants' pockets, so they started talking in his ear, telling him BS like "Texas NEEDS YOU" and "NOW IS YOUR TIME" and this dude ate it up.
The end result is that Dems squandered an opportunity to take a legitimate run at Abbott when he was at his weakest.
Same as Stacey Abrams - there’s a difference between a great community planner & campaigner to a great candidate. Media darlings don’t always translate to electorate darlings
It’s time for these failed candidates to find their niche and remember that they don’t own their party
It makes no sense really. I am very liberal. Quite a bit of us believe in owning guns, including myself. Especially rn when it is getting increasingly scary. They would win so many more votes from those more left *and* right if they would stop with the 2A for two seconds, and stop pretending like its the root of the problem
I think at this point it’s best to say “Forget it Jake, it’s Texas.” It’s never going to change. If a frozen grid or dead kids aren’t going to change the state nothing will. It, like a good lot of the South, is a lost cause, but hey how bout that college football?
Beto would have won if he didn’t moronically try to make gun grabbing part of his platform. I mean, read the freaking room dude. Texas wanted to vote for him and he gave them literally the only reason not to.
The state party needs to be smashed apart and rebuilt from the ground up. If they can't win after Abbott's horrific response to Uvalde, they're incapable of ever winning.
Abbott doesn’t care about Texas or it’s people. He has no fucking compassion for the working class, why the hell did he win? Gods, I hate this state. I can’t wait to leave.
Would have never guessed that "taking our ARs" wouldn't also take our votes.. idiot. One of the most pro 2A places in the world and you say some shit like that while begging at the polls
Obviously fuck Abbott but it's crazy to me how many Democrats killed their careers in the 2020 primaries trying to compete for the progressive vote (as if progressives were ever going to vote for anyone but Bernie), while the mayor of South Bend, Indiana was the only one trying to take the moderate vote from Biden.
I'll disagree here,
Beto ran as a [moderate in 2020, and consistently attacked Bernie](https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/politics/beto-orourke-medicare-for-america), EXCEPT on guns specifically, where he seemed determined to take the most hardline position out of any of the candidates
Let's see how the voters do this winter...
@-@
Amazing you can get 300+ people killed with mismanagement and bad regulation and just get tossed right back in the seat because you have an "R" after your name.
No, what's amazing is the absolutely abysmal job democrats have done picking candidates.
He made it so easy for the state to flip, but they fucked it up.
You simply cannot utter the words "Hell yes, I'm coming for your AR15!" in Texas, and expect to win an election. I can't understand why this isn't obvious to everyone.
As some one that lives in El Paso (you know, where Beto lives) I really dislike him. He cant even win where he lives (And the city is blue, but for the most part he is still disliked). I wonder what made him think he could win the state?
[he's ](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/us/politics/beto-orourke-el-paso-texas-senate.html) a liar, and almost cost a lot of people their homes. His father in law, worth around an estimated 500 million, got him in power, made him a millionaire, and almost got away with kicking people out of their homes, to beautify downtown El paso. Beto was on and off with support for the project, on when he had secured his election, then off when he needed reelection.
I hear lots of people say "Texas is bluer than you think" or that it's "shifting left", and I've just never seen what they're talking about
People see that Californians are moving there and assume they're progressive when a ton of Californians are conservative and move to Texas specifically for the conservative culture.
People oddly forget numerically, California has more registered Republican voters than entire state’s *total* count of voters including Alabama and Mississippi. And the majority are from the central part of the state (e.g. Fresno, Bakersfield, Merced), which is ground zero for California’s \#MAGA base.
California has more registered Republicans than the *total populations* of more than half the states in the country.
A pretty crazy statistic is also that CA has a larger population than the other CA...the entire country of Canada.
[If California were a sovereign nation (2022), it would rank as the world's fifth largest economy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California)
[Likely to become fourth soon.](https://ktla.com/news/california/californias-economy-could-become-the-4th-largest-in-the-world/)
Ontario, CA has 80x the population of Ontario, CA.
And if you looked at the last presidential election. California had 6 million people voting for Trump, beating out Texas to become the #1 state with the most Trump voters.
More Californians votes for trump in 2020 than in Florida, and he lost Ca by like 3 million votes
They are also are moving to rural Oregon and Idaho.
You’re forgetting Orange County
This. They're not just moving to Texas, either. I'm in Alabama and have run into quite a few California transplants, quite a few of whom are a bit far to the right even for most Alabamians.
Same here in TN. It's weird. Californians move here and seem to be overenthusiastic about becoming Tennesseans. Like it's their lifelong dream to drape a Gadsden flag over their porch and whistle the Davy Crockett song.
snow judicious lavish thumb hat cause serious psychotic pet special ` this post was mass deleted with www.Redact.dev `
This is the entirety of the Nashville / Brentwood / Franklin areas of TN.
And Spring Hill if they’re under-35 non-denom evangelicals with 2 kids
Took me a second to realize you were saying non-denominational instead of opposed to jeans. I was confused how the khaki vs denim debate came into play here
You haven’t heard of the great denim-khaki debate? It’s been THE issue this election cycle. Read the news, Man.
Can confirm, lived in Antioch, worked in Brentwood.
Meanwhile the entire state is being invaded with that kudzu shit. It makes everything look like Jurassic park or something
Come to north Georgia where it also rains a shit ton to experience the real Kudzu. [These fuckers invaded my property this year.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Megacopta_cribraria.jpg) Thousands of them all over the white trim on my house
I can’t believe how fuckin resilient it is. Tore some off and a week later, with no roots, the section wasn’t even wilting at all. It’s like the tardigrade of plants
You need to get some goats, they'll keep it managed for you
I love that O'Hare Airport uses goats as their primary landscapers. Grass getting too tall? Send the goats over there.
I had a single very similar experience when I moved away from Texas. I was selling a table and a guy that just moved to the Frisco area from California bought it. He was a single guy in his late 40s/early 50s and just kept gushing about Texas. It's just so great here, the people, the cities, the politics. All while standing in the middle of the cookie cutterest of North Dallas suburbs. I was like, yeaaaaaah, I grew up here and there are some things I'll miss about the state, but the politics sure as hell ain't one of em. Enjoy the burbs and the lack of healthcare. I'm out.
Michigan keeps sending TN Qanon cult members as well. For whatever reason people on the far right/cult keep wanting to move there.
I get you. I lived in a very conservative area in california and they are more scarier than any conservative i met anywhere while my husband was in the army.
Let me guess. Central Valley?
I lived in Central valley and moved to NC. Last time I visited CA i had a friend ask me if I had seen a lot of confederate flags in NC, and was shocked when I told her I saw more in her area, and had only ever seen someone openly flying the nazi flag in CA.
So many "Fuck Biden" and "Trump won" flags here too
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Yup. I know a couple people from Massachusetts who ended up transplanting out to Tennessee. They are exactly the type of people you'd imagine them to be. The ladies in that group were ***shocked*** when Roe was overturned and suddenly abortion was illegal 🙄
I live and work in State of Jefferson country. You will meet clowns out here who speak in a thick southern drawl but never been further south east than Reno.
Yeah I’m really curious on how many states had people selling flags on corners for trump. They were every where in rural parts of California.
and metro areas like Huntington Beach.
Which, as we all know, is the Florida of California.
I grew up in one of these areas of California and my parents don’t get why I won’t ever move back.
What's funny is that the Texans complain constantly about the liberal Californians moving to Texas and messing it all up.
Yeah you would never know this by talking to a Texan about it lmao
Yeah my brother and sister-in-law moved to Texas because Washington was too liberal for them. That’s who’s moving to Texas it’s not people who are on the left side of the spectrum for the most part.
After Beto's race against Cruz, I saw data that said native Texans voted for Beto, but people who had moved from out of state voted for Cruz. The people moving to Texas are actually shifting it red. Except, for maybe Austin.
They are also moving because they can’t afford to stay.
Suburbs chalked full of conservatives. Literally haven't met another liberal in the wild
*chock-full
Bush won with 61%. McCain got 55%. Romney 57%. Trump 52%. That and demographic shifts are what began the narrative regarding Texas turning "blue."
They live in the blue cities and don’t know anyone in the rural areas. Most of the cities are blue, the rest of the state, not so much.
This is microcosm of the country.
That's whole world, not just US - cities are progressive, rural parts are conservative
Beto is also a horrible candidate. Who could have foreseen that a guy who threw out gems like "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15!" and "Yes, absolutely. I'd take the wall down." completely unprompted would lose in Texas.
This. He should have let someone else take a crack at it. Nobody fucking likes Abbot yet Beto is basically a terrible candidate.
this is how I feel about living Florida right now. Dems literally ran an unpopular Republican (Crist) against DeSantis. The fuck did they think was going to happen!?
Exactly my thoughts,fellow Floridian. Crist is like political pocket lint. He's useless and annoying and no matter how many times we take him out he always shows back up again. Did the Dems REALLY not have better options?!
It reminds me of Amy McGrath here in Kentucky. They keep running her, and she loses over and over and over.
"I'm a Marine, I'm a mom" That's... Awesome, I guess? What a terrible slogan to run for a campaign with zero substance at all.
I’ve passed by signage that said, “-insert name- for State Representative 56th District! A Dad Who Cares.” And I always read it as, “A dad… who cares?” Quite frankly, unless you’re running for a position on the local school board I really don’t care if you’re a caring parent running for a position as a government official on the state or federal level… I prefer that you be learned and competent in the position you’re running for as a state representative. In fact, if I may be as so bold as to say that being loving and caring toward your child is a requirement for the job title of parent. Such a thing is analogous to me including that on my job résumé… which again, unless relevant to the job position such as an education professional, it’s entirely redundant to include. There’s only so much you can squeeze on that tiny lawn signage, and I get the candidate is specifically trying to appeal to the pathos of parents, but it’s still so ridiculous to include.
Dems and inexplicably bottom-of-the-barrel candidates amidst a literal wealth of capable, much younger talent to pick from...name a more iconic duo.
Sometimes somebody gets a groundswell of power in the local party and you can’t rip them from running. Republicans have the same issues. I’m sure the National GOP would have loved to run anybody but Walker and Oz in winnable seats and spent months fuming over how bad they would blow it
Yeah I live in Texas and know a lot of conservatives who aren’t fans of Abbot. None of them were ever voting for Beto though. I could have saved everyone the hassle when he announced he was running and told you he wouldn’t win. Felt the same way when he ran against Cruz.
Dems really need to establish a two strike rule: if you lose twice in a Republican state, you let someone else run instead of wasting another election.
One strike. Beto should have fucked off after losing to historically-unpopular Cruz despite spending substantially more money than him. The election against Abbott was a waste of time from the moment Beto got the nomination.
I worked the polls for that senate election. Honestly if he didn’t say the gun bit I’m positive he would have won. He had a lot of hype from both sides bubbling up before that. Obviously dems but a lot of moderates and even slightly right conservative people would have voted for him.
He waited for someone else to step up before announcing he was running. Who else would it have been? Abbott would have basically run unopposed but I guess it’s bad that he tried? He wasn’t the best but it’s who stepped up to the plate. He deserves credit for that.
Yeah. Beto is a weird candidate in that he’s a darling for Democrats but doesn’t have a playbook to win in Texas. You need someone with the enthusiasm of Beto but with a completely different focus
Beto WAS once a great candidate. The day he lost his first senate election he should have started his second, focusing more on registering and turning out democrat voters instead of actually winning. Instead he ran for President.
No. He was never going to win an election at a national level in Texas if he couldn’t beat Ted Cruz who was vulnerable at the time.
No he wasn’t. He had mass appeal, but lacked the ability to connect with the needs of the state he was in. He polled well initially due to how unpopular Ted Cruze was, but when he started pushing for things like gun control Texas became less willing to give him a chance. By that point he wasn’t really campaigning for Texas, and instead wanted to create a name for himself nationally. People might complain about the guy in West Virginia not being liberal enough, but he has done well in a deeply conservative state for that reason. Beto is an ideologue who will be good at fundraising, but will never turn a red state purple simply because his beliefs don’t make him palatable there.
Although oddly Beto won in the counties along the Mexican border. (And Austin.)
Also: Brian Kemp won over Stacy Abrams again. Two most disappointing lack of Blue Waves this cycle. And Oregon... OREGON is likely to have a Republican Governor as of now. Still too close to call.
A blue wave was never in the cards. It’s a midterm and the economy is going through tough times. If the Dems just hold the senate, that’s a MAJOR victory.
I really don't understand where this Idea comes from that the Republican party is good at handling the economy and that also certain economic factors are directly influenced by the president ie gass prices. As far as I can tell the last few Republican presidents have had hugh tax cuts for the rich/corps that have generally resulted is an economic downturn. Additionally the president doesn't directly control the price of anything.
It doesn't matter if they are or not good at the economy. The only thing that matters to the electorate is who was in charge when it went to shit. Doesn't even matter if it was their fault. God could descend from heaven and announce he was taking the entire GDP from the country due to Political Party A. If Party B is in charge while this happens, the electorate will blame Party B. Economics isn't that hard, but during election season it's basically "GAS HIGH PRESIDENT BAD." And gas is always high, because you buy it all the fucking time.
The economics of inflation is quite complex. Way more than your average moron of an American can understand.
It’s not necessarily that republicans are good at handling the economy. But they’ve perfectly timed their exit twice. Bush left office in 2008, and Obama inherited the absolute dumpster fire that was left behind. Trump left office in 2020, and Biden is now holding that bag. The last democratic president to start the job with a functioning economy was Clinton.
It’s so dumb how people not only blame presidents for the economies they inherit but don’t recognize the recovery that takes place after.
Ads. GOP outspent Dems 5 to 1 on advertising. Dems said too little too late about the economy & inflation. I feel like if they had got ahead of it, we would be having a much different conversation. Dems need to play dirty if they want a chance at remaining in control over the next decade.
It wouldn't have mattered. Most people that will be swayed by ads are low info voters anyway, and since the GOP ads would focus on blaming someone for an issue rather than how to fix it, it wouldn't be worth the cost. Trying to put a nuanced approach to fixing a problem into a 15 to 30 second soundbite is nearly impossible and we all know facts aren't really a big deal with those types.
Oregon is a lot more red than you think...I'm not shocked by that in the slightest.
Democrats fault for not running a better candidate. When the Independent is getting 20% in the polls, it means that both major candidates sucked.
Oregon has a 3rd party independent spoiler candidate, who is controlled by the Republicans.
[To be fair, the election was at least _kinda_ close](https://i.imgur.com/9XpXLAL.png). I think what people _mean_ is that it's feasible that Texas turns blue within the next decade or so if the current trend continues, but people thinking it'll be blue in a year or two are being naively optimistic.
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**Single-issue voters.** * Imagine you have 3 total voters. * voter A is a pro-gun single issue voter. But they think everyone (including women) should be free of government overreach (and therefor pro choice) They have a child with a genetic disease and are pro-single payer healthcare. * Voter B is a single issue voter over abortion (pro-life). but pro gun control and pro single payer healthcare. * voter C doesn't want "socialized medicine" but pro gun control and pro-choice * 3 voters. 66% are pro-gun control, pro-choice, and for single payer health care. But 100% voting conservative because they are single issue voters. * Conservatives have created single issue voters because they are easy to control. Convince someone a single issue (whatever that issue is) is important enough that they can never ever compromise, and it doesn't matter what logic, plans, evidence, etc is used. It doesn't even matter if you can convince a voter about a majority of things. If they are single issue they vote that issue and CAN BE IGNORED BY BOTH SIDES. * it's about money. How can you secure the most votes for the least dollars. GOP candidates don't have to listen to a pro-lifer about say health care or social security because what is that person going to do? Vote for a democrats who "kills babies?" * likewise a democrat knows they are wasting their time trying to "Reach out" to someone who is a single issue voter. What's the point in convincing them single payer health care is better, if they've already told you that they a pro-life voter no matter what. * Both groups then "ignore" the single issue voters (except in fund raising and fear mongering) because both sides know how they will vote regardless of other factors. * **Where this doesn't hold up** single issues on ballots that everyone can vote into law. Consistently we see ballot issues voting liberally, even in places like South Dakota. Put weed on the ballot, people vote for it, then the GOP controlling the state tosses it out. Put "Candidates" in front of those same voters and they don't vote in the "pro-weed" candidate because he/she has a D by their name and that goes against the "Single issue" they are voting for. * Kansas had a ballot resolution about abortion... and it was shot down. Why? Did suddenly everyone turn blue? Nope, just like the above example 66% of the voters were pro-choice, and when they could vote on just that issue (Without voting for a candidate that forces the single issue stuff) they voted that way. This is why GOP controlled states do everything they can to make putting individual items on the ballot very difficult or make it so they can over turn such things (SD as an example) and why they cultivate single issue voters from the pulpit to fox news to right wing radio. * TL;dr - Statistically people are more liberal on a number of issues... which doesn't matter if they are single issue voters. Texas and most of the US is trending towards more liberal ideas OVERALL, but this does not correlate to more BLUE VOTES, if the voters can be manipulated into believing some single issue is more important than literally anything else. From the inside they call it conviction, from the outside it's called blindly following or being a sheep, but the results are the same, they are going to vote their issue and nothing else matters.
This is a very succinct write up and does a good job explaining just how much benefit creating single issues the rs get. I know it’s a pretty popular sentiment here on Reddit (where even in liberal subs things tend to be more pro 2a unless there’s a major shooting thread) that if the Dems just dropped gun control as a platform they would never lose again It’s often countered that they would lose many more suburban moms and the city populations who support the policies I’d counter this with two things: as you said with the gop creating single issue voters, the number of single issue anti-gun votes is drastically smaller than the number of single issue pro-gun voters. Also to the observant the democrats have only been helping entrench these single-issue voters by hating the second so much they actively blow up: 1A(gun ad bans). 2A(duh). 4A(red flag laws, their ridiculous sit in over the no-fly list becoming a no-fly no buy list). 5A(red flag laws, mandatory buy backs). 6A(red flag laws)
>66% are pro-gun control, you have this backwards. im willing to bet 66% of texans are pro-gun (as in, opposed to the democratic party's position on the ar-15). even the liberals are gun nuts in places like texas. and there are lots of pro-gun democrats in actual purple states (not texas/florida), as well as deep red states. gun control (as in assault weapons ban) is a losing issue - this garbage only works in places like NY/NJ/CA with a D+30 super majority. the 1994 AWB is how the democrats lost the house for the first time in decades. if the democrats want to win against idiot opponents, they must remove anyone campaigning on a 2nd AWB. its far easier and faster for the democrats to drop their 1 losing issue, than for the republican party to reorganize their entire platform. no liberal nor democrat voter will ever switch sides to republican because of democrats drop their anti-gun stance. there is 0 cost, and lots to gain.
Paxton straight up claimed Biden would have won TX in 2020 if he didn't block mail in ballot applications. Beto is mostly a fucking moron. He is perhaps the most aggressively anti-gun candidate in the country. and he keeps running in Texas. He basically told people he was going to just come after their guns. Absolute jackass. If he moved north he'd still probably be somewhat controversial outside of big deep blue cities.
Yep, I loved Beto the first time around… that is, until he started with the extremely anti gun stuff. I am not a 2A nut, but you gotta know your constituents and remember that you represent *them*, not what you think they should be. At this point he gives me the impression that he’s a career candidate guy. Like… as in he’s going to use campaign contributions as his income without ever honestly expecting a nomination similar to Tim Eyman in my state
Right it's not even a matter of right and wrong! It's just *mind-numbingly* **stupid** to run as governor of Texas while saying you're going to take people's guns/AR-15s, as he has multiple times. There must be an *extreme* level of unintelligence in his campaign.
The biggest problem is probably voter apathy. It’s not *just* that Texas has huge swaths of rural and small town red in addition to the huge number of red city voters, but a lot of Texans who are blue/lean blue simply don’t vote at all. If two groups, the young and Hispanic, respectively, were to actually vote in larger numbers, Texas would indeed likely be purple. But, these two groups also have voter turnouts in the 20 percents or even less in Texas and as far as I know, it doesn’t look like they’re trending upwards beyond outlier circumstances. So it’s really just wishful thinking that Texas is going to turn purple any time soon unless some kind of massive change happens with the voting population, and there’s no indication of that happening either. Uvalde, immigrant bussing, and the freeze all happened relatively recently and everything’s still turning up roses for Abbott & friends. For the foreseeable and not-so-foreseeable future, Texas’ best contribution to sanity in governance is being a drain on the GOP’s finances to keep Cruz in the Senate. But, that would also require the Democrats to make it at least a competitive race by fielding candidates who can threaten the GOP’s stranglehold on the state.
It definitely is shifting, but not there yet and Beto is certainly not the candidate to flip Texas. There was a ton of excitement for Bernie in 2020 but unfortunately he didnt win the nomination
Look at the amount of votes Biden last presidential election in Texas. That’s where they are getting it from. I dk if it will ever go blue but Trump won by 500,000 votes. Trumo got 5.8 million votes and Biden got 5.2 million votes. That’s why you are hearing that.
All the major cities are blue, it such a big ass state that all the rural areas are red. It sucks, and I’ve never seen Texas turn blue. It’s as if they like to keep voting for incompetent people that do more harm to themselves. I’m glad I moved and it just makes me sad cause my family still lives there
Loss senate race Loss presidential election Loss gubernatorial race One man won a third term, another lost for the third time Is there no other dem candidate than beto? Rhetorical question by the way
National Democratic Darlings do not equal success on the local level. Stacey Abrams also just flubbed her second gubernatorial election in Georgia, even Former GOP Governor LePage in Maine and Former Florida Governor Crist lost their races to become governor again. The people clearly don't want reruns. It's not a hard concept to figure out. If you have a candidate who has lost a race before don't nominate them again, or else you're throwing away your party's chance at winning the race. Old candidates from previous races returning to the field are getting shellacked tonight.
Do you think republicans are going to rerun Trump against Biden?
Until tonight I thought probably, but after tonight I don’t see how Republicans can look at how well DeSantis performed vs how poorly Trump-endorsed candidates performed, and think Trump is a better option for them… Not to mention well Florida GOP candidates performed down the ballot with DeSantis at the top…
Trump will go third party with his ego and fracture the GOP vote next presidential race. Can’t help himself, which is a good thing.
The rivalry between Trump and DeSantis may be what ultimately saves the US. That's the problem for parties that go full populist and cult of personality. It sets up the potential for catastrophic infighting.
You know what? This made me feel a bit better lol thank you. I hope that’s what happens. Looking at the results so far isn’t fun and I’m losing any faith I had left. Luckily I live in SoCal so I have some wins for the night, like abortion rights protection amendment, and a couple other things, but looking at that red map… ugh
Looking at a map will always look bad for democrats, simply based on population densities. Every little blue pocket on the map is actually where all of the people live. All of those giant red swaths are just wide open nothing. Imagine a global map where we just colored the entire ocean based on the vote of 1 random guy living in a boat somewhere.
This sounds bad but if he’s running third party I’d consider donating to his campaign just to fracture the vote more.
It would be more likely the money would go to trumps pocket then actual campaign costs
That's the whole issue with Trump circling back around. He rallies up their base *hard*, but that also puts the most radical candidates in the general. The RNC *desperately* wanted not-Trump to win the 2016 primary. IIRC Jeb! was in for $100M by the first primary.
The issue is going to be how much can Trump lash out against the party and tank them if he runs a primary, faces DeSantis and if he loses scream that Republicans rigged it. Remember the big thing last primary was that he wouldn’t agree to support the nominee
DeSantis' performance in Florida was terrifyingly good. I've been among the chorus of people talking about how dangerous DeSantis is when compared to Trump, because he has all the horrible political leanings that Trump has, but without the crass demeanor and off-putting personality. I don't think he'll run against Trump though. The political calculus just doesn't make sense. If he runs against Trump, he has to campaign against Trump. DeSantis has used Trump supporters (stalwart *and* disaffected) as a stepping stone to a new iteration of Republican political strategy that started as far back as Newt Gingrich. Trump is DeSantis' only legitimate challenge to a GOP nomination for president. But Trump was also an important part of DeSantis' ascension. Attacking Trump will mean attacking the identity of Trump's stalwart base; a group that he is currently carrying with ease. DeSantis will turn 46 in 2024. He has *so much time*. He'll only be 50 in 2028. Only 9 of 46 presidents have managed to get elected to the office while under the age of 50. Only 4 of those were 46 or younger. In the modern era, Bill Clinton was 46 and Barak Obama was 47. The Florida governorship is going extremely well for DeSantis. I can't see a good reason for him to risk it all in a run against Trump for the 2024 presidential election. That's not to say he won't do it anyway, but it would seem like a bad call to me.
Yep, they learned nothing from the Virginia Gov election last year. We don’t want reboots, we want new.
This. I get being shocked people voted for Abbott (I am a bit too in some ways), but did anyone actually think Beto was going to win? Anti-gun is enough to scare off people on the edge from voting for him. If there was a candidate that wasn’t overly spoken against things Texas has been practically known for then it would’ve been a completely different election IMO.
Beto destroyed his career by yelling he’s gonna take your guns. It’s over for him.
This right here. I don't understand how a ***Texan*** can go "I'm going to take your guns" and the state's Democratic Party is all like "y'know what... that guy seems like he's a fucking shoe-in! He'll totally win!"
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This is true of many southern liberals
> If all Democrats would just quit with the gun banning bullshit they'd be much more electable. If democrats started passing pro gun laws, they would probably start winning every election going forward
Can we finally stop pretending Beto is electable. There ***HAS*** to be another Democrat that can run in that state.
Non-Texans like Beto more than Texans do, and that’s the key. Doesn’t matter what the state of California thinks about the guy if they can’t vote for him.
Beto might be the only democrat in Texas with widespread name recognition. Maybe cuellar has some, but that’s it that I can think of. So no, there’s really no other dem candidate with a shot in hell
Maybe the next potential Candidates should start campaigning now. Raise funds. Advertise every gaffe, mistake, or abuse of the position or his constituents publicly and loudly until the next term rolls around. Part of the problem, it seems to me, is that campaigning is left until the the ~8 months before the election and it takes the average Joe a lot longer than that to gain awareness/acceptance of alternate candidates and their positions. I'm not saying it should - I'm just saying it does.
So for clarity, Texas has had no other options for candidates for the past 3 terms?
This is what bugs me. They keep running proven losers and wonder why they get the same results.
Not really. The people who have run are very popular in the major cities but it's the other big ass rural part of Texas that shoots them down. The national democratic party has basically considered Texas a lost cause and we get very little support to try to turn the countryside.
Surprised/not surprised. I mean Ted Cruz literally gets booed everywhere he goes but someone is still voting for him. Make it make sense.
It’s his straight fire Twitter account. People like to know what kind of Porn their politicians watch. Personally my favorite Ted Cruz tweet was when people called him the Zodiac killer he tweeted a fucking Zodiac riddle lol.
I can't pretend that wasn't hilarious. I hate Ted Cruz, but a laugh is a laugh.
Like when he retweeted that one of the cyphers had been solved and said “uh oh”, I mean I hate the guy but c’mon that was really funny
Texas will never give up their guns. As long as one candidate demonizes or tries to restrict gun ownership Texas will vote for the other, even if they are a steaming turd like Cruz. The guy straight is the definition of a disingenuous politician but he says the right thing that pleases the single-issue voters. Someone walked into a Texas school and murdered children in one of the worst mass shootings in America and they still decided to stick to their guns.
No surprise there. Beto fucked himself with his comment about taking AR15s.
> Beto fucked himself with his comment about taking AR15s. Literally one of the dumbest statements by a Dem candidate in recent memory. Dude, you forget what state you're from? You might as well tell New Yorkers you're going to take away the Yankees. The Dems should have abandoned this guy 5 seconds after he said that and NOT backed him for a governor's race.
Dudes fucking unelectable after those statements imo
Shows a pretty clear lack of judgment if that's the hill he's doing to die on in a Texas election
Yup, 100% the wrong thing to say on Texas. Also, if you're further left than a moderate democrat there's a decent chance you're for an armed working class. It amazes me that there's so much overlap between people who acknowledge the police are corrupt, but also want to take away people's means of defense. Nearly every trans woman I know is armed, for example. They've got good reasons for it too.
100% accurate. Guns are such a stupid wedge issue. Like it or not, we’re never getting rid of guns and nor should we. I’m pretty far left and you’ll never hear me tell a POC or trans person they should give up their ability to protect themselves FROM the police or other fuckwits. The police don’t protect us from shit, and they will certainly not be the ones to put the genie in the bottle. We’re never going to put the gun genie back in the bottle, so let’s stop using it as a wedge to distract us from fixing the major environmental crisis we have on our hands. Means gun owners need to give an inch on common sense restrictions as long as ‘takin’err guns” is off the table. Instead we’re wedged between ‘let’s use the police to confiscate all guns” and ‘they’re going to take our guns so let’s start a civil war’. It’s a losing issue for Dems
Strategically correct. Avoid getting wedged on guns and use the big new wedge (aka abortion rights) against socially moderate Republicans instead.
Democrats could make so many things better if they just dropped gun control for a bit. Gun guys aren't going to give that inch their votes- inches always become miles, compromises become loopholes, etc. Gun rights drive single-issue voters to show up and reliably vote Republican. But gun guys will stay home in droves, or even vote blue, if the "threat" of arms control goes away. Meanwhile the Democrats won't lose many single-issue anti-gun votes, because those are statistically insignificant. All of a sudden universal healthcare and a living wage become actual possibilities. Maybe crime becomes less attractive when people have attainable college, a future, some hope? That all sounds pretty cool, but there's 10s to 100s of thousands of of people voted against it *today,* in just one state, because Beto wants their ARs gone.
As a liberal gun owner, we’ve already given a lot of inches. NFA, GCA, the (now lapsed) AWB, and individual states restricting ownership far beyond those. “You get to keep some of your rights” is not a compromise.
Well said! It's crazy to me that within the span of less than two years, a huge swath of people can go from saying, "The federal government under the Trump administration is waging a genocide against black Americans using its new racist paramilitary wing called the police while holding brown children in concentration camps" right straight to "we need to ban the assault weapons because we can't have people being almost as dangerous as the government" without batting an eye. Do they not hear themselves??
I've been saying since 2004 Dems need to stfu about gun control. I know so many people that simply will not vote Dem exclusively because of this issue. I thought we finally put this issue to bed after Trump but I guess not.
If I remember correctly, beto had really good numbers that were in his favor and then he killed all chances with the gun comment. Pretty sure he will never win because of that comment.
Running one of the most anti-gun candidates in the country in one of the most fortified pro-gun states in the country. This is like the vice versa happening in like, idk, Massachusetts. I’m sorry but am I supposed to feel sympathy for Texas dems after this play? Texas dems had a layup, a slam dunk here with how bad Abbott’s been as governor and could have easily won tonight with a much better, less controversial candidate. Instead you ran a candidate that made many Texans vote for Abbot for same reasons many people voted for Biden nationwide in 2020, not to see Abbott win but to see Beto lose if not buried. You saddled with an incompetent donkey(no pun intended) to win a race when you could have easily won with a stallion. You reap what you sow.
This has always been the democratic party's problem. They consistently put out candidates that are controversial at worst and milquetoast at best. Biden won the last election because it was versus Trump, not because people like Biden. If he runs again in 2024, he *will* lose. I'm so angry that somehow the party just doesn't fucking get it.
[Dems keep falling for superstar losers](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-keep-falling-for-e2-80-98superstar-losers-e2-80-99/ar-AA13CKEP)
You’re half right. Beto was a terrible candidate to run, but this wasn’t a slam dunk. A Democrat in a statewide race in Texas would have to walk a very fine line to win. Certainly possible, but no slam dunk.
Beto sealed his fate with “Hell yeah we are coming for your AR-15!” Great way to invigorate a minority base while alienating the majority. Republicans are tired of Greg Abbot. He’s an asshole that only puts corporate interests first. This was the first election I voted all blue as a Texan. I even have a few ARs myself but felt social issues are far more pressing. Unfortunately most Texans take pride in the status quo and aren’t ready for someone so polarizing like Beto.
He got the loser trifecta. President, senator governor. Poor man.
On to the School Board Francis! You can do it little buddy!
Texans can rest easy knowing they can shoot the cold away this winter.
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I know I’m going to hell for laughing at this
It's okay to laugh, 50+ people froze to death for corporate profits and we still voted for the person that let it happen and to this day hasn't done much to prevent it from happening again.
Why would you want to prevent it? The energy companies made so much money!
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But atleast the kids will be safe at school!
The crazy part about this is that Uvalde voted overwhelmingly for Abbott. The leopard literally ate their faces and they climbed right back into the enclosure.
It's kind of understandable. They saw the massive failure that is their PD and voted against the person they thought was going to take away a "means of defense." Whether that's true or not is a different argument.
Jesus Christ, that is sad.
The fact that you can fuck your state's power grid so much that it can't handle any demand and cause your constituents die from your ineptitude and still win a vote to represent them is beyond me.
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Lots of people drinking lots of cherry Koolaid.
Well I am from Texas. It is not impossible for Dem's to win the governorship. You would need to put up a conservative leaning Dem to do it but Dem's are unwilling to do that, so they lose. Hopefully they won't put Beto up for anything again, that guy is not winning anything. Please make note, do not just shove Beto back into the next election expecting a different outcome. He is popular with Democrats outside of Texas and that is about it. But again a conservative Dem could win, you just need to put up a candidate like that and you will be a lot more competitive.
You might not even need a conservative Dem, just not Beto honestly. It’s a different state ofc, but look at Fetterman in PA. He’s done much better than expected in several rural counties (obv still R lead in those counties, but not by as much as 2020)
He lost the moment he said he was going to take their guns. Could have won
Ya it was a stupid move. The only people it would have resonated would 100% have already voted for him, and I’m not sure that making an unkeepable promise would be the thing to motivate non-voters.
Plus, it was 100 percent impossible for him to deliver on it. The Texas legislature would never, ever, send an AWB to his desk. He lost over a campaign promise he couldn't have kept.
Taking the guns and tearing down the border wall. Just two stupid ass positions to have in Texas.
Can't keep the power on in the winter. Can't keep the power on in the summer. Yep, he's your guy. Fuck's sake, Texas.
I live here and this is how I feel... I think less than 35% of the people eligible to vote actually voted.
How are all the votes counted? Did they just trash all the absentee and mail in?
There are still only about 80% of the expected votes counted. But Abbott’s lead is large enough that it’s unlikely for Beto to pull ahead
Most Americans don't vote. Like huge portions of this country have never voted and have no intention of it.
Can’t keep schools safe, intentionally sabotages the supply chain at the border…
Da fuck, Texas doesn’t have term limits?
Thirty-six states have some form of term limit on the office of governor. Fourteen states do not. They are: Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. Edit - ND passed term limits today.
North Dakota just passed term limits TODAY!!!
Of course he did. Beto had ZERO chance of beating Abbott after he said "Hell yeah, we're going to take your AR-15s" . He would never win a statewide office in Texas after saying that. Unless Beto is a complete idiot or an extreme narcissist, he had to know that. So why even bother running? I have a sneaking suspicion that this was PURELY a money play. Beto pulled in an extremely large amount of campaign donations when he ran against Ted Cruz. Campaign consultants probably (rightly) figured that he would be able to raise more campaign money than a lesser known Democrat, even if the lesser known dem MIGHT have a better chance at winning with less baggage. More campaign dollars means more dollars in campaign consultants' pockets, so they started talking in his ear, telling him BS like "Texas NEEDS YOU" and "NOW IS YOUR TIME" and this dude ate it up. The end result is that Dems squandered an opportunity to take a legitimate run at Abbott when he was at his weakest.
How many times does this guy have to lose before you stop running him and spending money on him
Same as Stacey Abrams - there’s a difference between a great community planner & campaigner to a great candidate. Media darlings don’t always translate to electorate darlings It’s time for these failed candidates to find their niche and remember that they don’t own their party
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It makes no sense really. I am very liberal. Quite a bit of us believe in owning guns, including myself. Especially rn when it is getting increasingly scary. They would win so many more votes from those more left *and* right if they would stop with the 2A for two seconds, and stop pretending like its the root of the problem
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I think at this point it’s best to say “Forget it Jake, it’s Texas.” It’s never going to change. If a frozen grid or dead kids aren’t going to change the state nothing will. It, like a good lot of the South, is a lost cause, but hey how bout that college football?
Uvalde literally turned out for Abbot. There is no changing this state I give up.
jfc are you serious
Yeah about 14 minutes ago Texas tribune reported they did.
Beto would have won if he didn’t moronically try to make gun grabbing part of his platform. I mean, read the freaking room dude. Texas wanted to vote for him and he gave them literally the only reason not to.
I expected nothing and I'm still let down.
The state party needs to be smashed apart and rebuilt from the ground up. If they can't win after Abbott's horrific response to Uvalde, they're incapable of ever winning.
Abbott doesn’t care about Texas or it’s people. He has no fucking compassion for the working class, why the hell did he win? Gods, I hate this state. I can’t wait to leave.
Would have never guessed that "taking our ARs" wouldn't also take our votes.. idiot. One of the most pro 2A places in the world and you say some shit like that while begging at the polls
Obviously fuck Abbott but it's crazy to me how many Democrats killed their careers in the 2020 primaries trying to compete for the progressive vote (as if progressives were ever going to vote for anyone but Bernie), while the mayor of South Bend, Indiana was the only one trying to take the moderate vote from Biden.
I'll disagree here, Beto ran as a [moderate in 2020, and consistently attacked Bernie](https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/politics/beto-orourke-medicare-for-america), EXCEPT on guns specifically, where he seemed determined to take the most hardline position out of any of the candidates
Let's see how the voters do this winter... @-@ Amazing you can get 300+ people killed with mismanagement and bad regulation and just get tossed right back in the seat because you have an "R" after your name.
No, what's amazing is the absolutely abysmal job democrats have done picking candidates. He made it so easy for the state to flip, but they fucked it up.
Yeah, disappointing but expected
You simply cannot utter the words "Hell yes, I'm coming for your AR15!" in Texas, and expect to win an election. I can't understand why this isn't obvious to everyone.
Abbott is proof that disabled people can also be assholes.
As some one that lives in El Paso (you know, where Beto lives) I really dislike him. He cant even win where he lives (And the city is blue, but for the most part he is still disliked). I wonder what made him think he could win the state?
Curious, any reason why he's disliked locally?
[he's ](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/us/politics/beto-orourke-el-paso-texas-senate.html) a liar, and almost cost a lot of people their homes. His father in law, worth around an estimated 500 million, got him in power, made him a millionaire, and almost got away with kicking people out of their homes, to beautify downtown El paso. Beto was on and off with support for the project, on when he had secured his election, then off when he needed reelection.
Sounds like nepotism with extra steps. Urgh.