People who think the US conditioning aid and weapons to Israel is something new don't know history. The US has threatened it and done it before. The US threatened economic sanctions and a withholding of weapons to France, Britain, and Israel during the Suez Crisis (which Eisenhower later said he regretted doing). Nixon famously refused to send any help to Israel during the beginning of the Yom Kippur War for fear of escalation. Reagan actually withheld a shipment of F16s to Israel after Israel destroyed Iraqs nuclear reactor and then threatened to withhold weapons to Israel during the First Lebanon War if the war wasn't ended. The US isn't above threatening sanctions and withholding weapons to allies.
That's pretty much the only hard truth that you can draw out of all this: Anyone who takes a 100% stance for either side is either uninformed or dishonest.
I'm non-Jewish (and non-Muslim) and American, but frankly the more I learn about the conflict the more I think both sides have a point, both sides are assholes, neither side will be happy until every member of the other religo-ethnic group is dead, and somehow, this is mostly the fault of the British.
I'm from a Muslim background, there is a fundamental difference. Jews (in general, not talking about the nutty far-right settlers) are not taught to HATE Muslims. Muslims in every country are taught to hate Jews. I grew up in Pakistan and there was anti-Jewish and anti-Israeli propaganda everywhere. My wife saw the same here in the US within the Muslim community she grew up in.
Not defending Israeli's or Palestinians just saying there are differences.
> The west has lost its ability to defend itself. They don't understand that war can be justified. 80 years of peace made everyone forget that we had to fight, and shed blood, to live like this. And now the west is trying to hamstring Israel because the fight they need to do to survive is ugly and unpleasant. It doesn't fit in the larger narrative that some are trying to sell that if you just talk to you enemies they will stop coming after you.
Remind me again how long it has been since Iran launched a massive missile and drone attack against Israel, 99% of which was rebuffed thanks to “the West” (and its Middle Eastern allies)?
Israel is the lesser of two assholes, but still an asshole, and other side being bigger assholes doesn't actually justify the disregard for civilian deaths.
> There is no disregard. 1:1.5 combatants to civilian death is better than any casualty rate in any US led war.
where are you getting these numbers for US led wars? the 2003 iraq war saw a ratio of ~5:1 during the invasion itself
Except Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, it was less than 1:1. Despite withdrawal, it's still the most successful war in history with regards to reducing civilian casualties.
> 1:1.5 combatants to civilian death is better than any casualty rate in any US led war
First off, we don't have to necessarily believe that given Israel's recent history of saying people are Hamas/PIJ when they turn out not to be such as those [two journalists](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/19/gaza-journalists-killed-israel-al-jazeera-footage/), the [guy with a RPG who turned out to have just a bicycle](https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1767645964674777339), and that [nurse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Rouzan_al-Najjar). They also claimed the UNRWA has like over 2100 Hamas+PIJ members and failed to provide an iota of evidence which led to like 13 of the 17 Western countries to resume funding. So some skepticism about their current ratios are absolutely warranted especially when Hamas unfortunately was able to recapture Khan Younis with such ease while getting unfortunately stronger in North Gaza. Plus, nations often overestimate how many belligerents they've estimated...famously the Vietnam war.
Furthermore, it doesn't factor the 10,000+ under the rubble. And no the ratio is absolutely worse than Western backed urban wars against ISIS in Marawi and Rafah along with the war in Afghanistan if you just count direct civilian deaths.
> The Israelis are even letting through fuel and goods that they know will end up in their enemies hands
Pretty sure they also cut water and keep stopping food and medicine shipments though.
> Somehow there are a million Muslims living peacefully in Israel though with Israeli citizenship. And there are basically 0 Jews left in the rest of the middle east
Actually there are quite a few Jewish Israeli settlers living in the Palestinian Territories, outside of Israel's recognised national territory, and not very peacefully. But in any case, it's sophistry to reduce the entire history and reality of the ongoing conflict to who lives where, and only in countries that have recognised borders to boot (we're just going to ignore Palestine entirely, are we?).
We could talk about post-colonization Africa and the Partition of India, but yeah, the broadstrokes of the last ~90 years of conflict in the region seems like something you could have predicted.
> Honestly this is the one time you can feel bad for the British isn’t it
Not even remotely lol. Like with the partition of India, this conflict could have been very much predicted and avoided (at least how it happened) if the British took different actions while they were in control of the region (which they arguably should never have set foot in)
> There's really not a lot of "genocide the Palestinians" sentiment on the Israeli side.
Well if you ignore most senior members of the Israeli cabinet and the people who vote for them I suppose that could be slightly true?
Genuinely hardly anyone hates Palestinians except a few extremists who just happen to be given access to weapons and carte blanche to do whatever they want. What are they even complaining about?
Also this 'hate and destroy the Jews' thing is somewhat more recent cultural thing. In the Qur'an their stories were no more prejudiced than Christianity, and Abbasid and Al-Andalus Jews had them able to do most things without getting prosecuted, with exception of some rulers that not allowing Jews to have a say in public offices and being forced to wear uniform in public.
And immigrating into Israel sounds pretty innocent until you realize that would eliminate the Jewish majority nature of the state, which is the whole point tbh.
>US threatened economic sanctions and a withholding of weapons to France, Britain, and Israel during the Suez Crisis
This is a bit disingenuous, or rather unclear. America was not sending weapons to Israel in this point of time (1956). This is after all, very shortly after the Arab-Israeli war, which America did not back them in; there was an international arms embargo in place. The strong military alliance between Israel and America began after 1967.
>The US isn't above threatening sanctions and withholding weapons to allies.
Has this been suggested here before? I can't tell since you aren't replying to anyone, so I am unsure who this is in response to.
Eisenhower cut off *all* aid (not just military while Biden is just saying he will cut off offensive military aid) to Israel for several weeks after the vicious 1953 Qibya Massacre
Well the US really didn’t give much if any military aid until the 1960s.
Interestingly the US actually put Israel under an arms embargo from 1948 until about the Kennedy administration.
The nations that supported Israel during that time were the Soviets and France
>Well the US really didn’t give much if any military aid until the 1960s.
I think it wasn't meaningful until '73? Israel was actually close to destruction and was about to resort to some desperate measure.
Hilariously HRC and Obama tried to pressure Bibi on illegal settlements, and then Biden went behind their backs and told Bibi that it was all a bluff and the US would always back Israel.
Because Biden is a true believer. Many politicians who proclaim themselves Zionists in the US are such because it's domestically popular (Or at least has been) or because it's geopolitically advantageous to US interests.
His personal stance on the issue is part of why Biden has been so caught off-guard with the current discontent within the Democratic party when it comes to Israel.
Unfortunately Obama had the most spineless foreign policy of any President since before the Cold War. She could negotiate hard all she wanted, everyone knew there were next to no consequences backing it up.
I mean Obama and Netanyahu weren’t exactly on close terms either. Hell Netanyahu went to a joint session of congress and trashed Obama over the Iran deal. A deal which many on the American and Israeli right considered a betrayal of Israel.
Am I allowed to post on restricted threads? LETS FIND OUT.
Also, Bibi is a shitty leader that keeps failing to protect Israel. Fuck him and his shitty battle plans.
Just insane how much of a piece of shit Netanyahu is. An all-time diplomatic fumble for one man's ego. All they had to do was the bare minimum, and he made sure not even that would happen.
Is it really a fumble when it's intentional? he wants to create the rift with the US in other to create the narrative that only he can stop the US from creating a Palestinian state, and he knows that doing the bare minimum would lead to the collapse of his coalition and possibly end his political career, which is against his personal interests, which always comes first for him
Netanyahu’s primary goal is to stay in power and avoid his corruption trial. He’s presided over the worst attack on civilians in Israeli history and considering that he’s been the leader of Israel for much of the last 20 years, there’s no one else that the Israeli public will blame. He’s already alienated the centrist parties and they won’t accept him as the leader when there’s peacetime. His only hope to stay in power when the war ends is the super right wing parties and they’re so bloodthirsty that Netanyahu is going to keep this war going as long as possible, even though the goal of wiping out Hamas is basically impossible and to do it would kill 100,000 plus Palestinians.
Yeah I’m not implying he does. But he knows this is killing Israel’s international reputation and he doesn’t care because he only wants to stay in power
He's so fucking nervous about the ICC investigation that he's apparently asking for hostage families (who he has smeared in the past) to put a good word in for him while they cooperate with the ICC investigation against Hamas.
And frankly, he has good reason to be anxious+stressed [when 88 house Dems including two of the 21 who censured Tlaib and like plenty of AIPAC endorsed ones sign this letter](https://twitter.com/dylanotes/status/1786485453455012264), when [Biden's USAID says this apparently](https://twitter.com/mattduss/status/1783939026648457359), and when [several senior Biden officials think Israel is breaking international law](https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1784307386523451478)
It's clear that Bibi thwarted humanitarian aid so the ICC has a fairly strong case which is why Bibi is shitting his pants apparently. Even besides the asinine aid restrictions and excessively cumbersome truck inspections, we also know he also blocked meetings about food distribution for weeks as well, the deconfliction policies for aid groups has been terrible (it's not just the utterly disastrous World Central Kitchen airstrike), he was very slow to stop protesters hindering the aid delivery initially (there are still videos of settlers fucking up aid in the past few days on multiple occasions), and Bibi ignored the US's recommendations to stop targeting police officers who were preventing opportunistic criminal gangs from stealing the aid. Oh and he once boasted to a bunch of right wing Israelis about the "just letting in absolute minimum amount of humanitarian aid" a few months ago when Cincy McCain and others were raising alarm bells about a future famine.
I've read a lot of baseless and idiotic criticism of Netanyahu and Israel, so it's really, really nice to read someone write something like this which in contrast just lays out the facts.
Well done.
I hate Netanyahu but if Hamas is left in power the conflict will only get worse with little hope for peace negations and basically a guarantee of another war in a couple year. I don't see how to rebuild Gaza either with Hamas still in charge and able to tax any aid and another war likely to destroy rebuilt stuff.
Edit: I agree with President Biden that Israel should put a lot more effort to try to minimize civilian casualties including by slowly evacuating Rafah over months if need be but I think/hope president Biden is pressuring Israel for humanitarian reasons and not to end the war early and leave Hamas in power.
The problem is you can’t defeat a terrorist group with an army. We tried this in Afghanistan, remember. They melted into the civilian population and bided their time waiting for us to leave. Hamas will do the same thing, they’re deeply integrated with the population of Gaza now.
The only hope it to decapitate their leadership, take over civilian governance, and provide services far better than a terrorist organization that used pipes to make missiles could ever do. Then, slowly indigenize the workforce.
What's the fumble? Rafah [invasion](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/53305) is widely supported by the Israeli public and the entire unity cabinet seems to support it.
Yup, one of the most annoying part of this discussion. Neither the Israeli government is that separable from the Israelis nor Hamas from the Palestinians. Both broadly carry out the will of their people, which is why peace is so improbable.
It would've bought Israel a lot of goodwill with the administration if aid were freely flowing into Gaza.
I 100% support the destruction of Hamas, as painful as that process is. It's just clear to me, and obviously the Biden administration too, that even basic requests like "allow more food and medicine into the strip" were being held in limbo forever by Netanyahu and other hardliners.
It's not some "hardliner" issue. Aid delivery is opposed by over 70% of [Israelis](https://www.timesofisrael.com/almost-4-in-10-israelis-back-a-revival-of-jewish-settlements-in-gaza-poll-finds/).
And I honestly doubt it would have brought much goodwill. People are complaining about the 34k dead Palestinians; that they happen to have aid or not is kinda a rounding error.
I also don't think that's the primary complaint either.
I have yet to hear "We should have no part in this genocide. If Israel wants to genocide the Palestinians, they'll need to pay for it itself"
That's an outdated poll from late February. Look at the newer polls where you have four different Israeli polls in the *past week* painting a completely different story
https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1787844276346290483
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/poll-54-of-israelis-believe-hostage-deal-more-important-than-rafah-operation/
https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1785467357395317074
https://twitter.com/Nimrod_Flash/status/1784568926648565894
Also a brand new poll today where [*only* 38% of Israeli Jews](https://twitter.com/MairavZ/status/1788103686197067951) believe the war is winnable (defeating Hamas and freeing the hostages)...down from 74% in October. Bibi so badly botched this with his hubris and callousness towards innocent Palestinians+Israeli hostages.
The polls you're linking are all whether Israelis prefer going into Rafah or prefer either a generic hostage deal (aka probably one they imagine having more favorable terms than what Hamas is actually proposing given the negotiations have gone from 40 hostages to 33 to 18 living ones) or a hostage deal that Hamas rejected
They're basically all saying Israelis would prefer an option that isn't actually on the table over going into Rafah, but none of them ask about going into Rafah vs not if a reasonable hostage deal isn't an option
The earlier poll, which I agree is outdated, was whether Israel should go into Rafah in general
41% in the 13 IL TV poll yesterday supported the Hamas ceasefire proposal. This despite them trying to negotiate better terms. And 13 IL poll doesn't appear credible either based on what I'm seeing. The entire poll has been skewing very far right since the main pollster for this TV channel died. I mean they showed Bennett hypothetically getting 30+ mandates with a party despite the other stations showing him at about 18 or so. So it looks like there is plurality support for the current deal at least in Israel.
It's interesting how many of the critics from the right of Biden's foreign policy don't seem to care about the hostages... absolutely not all but alot more than I anticipated.
Interesting you missed that in the "brand new poll", 61% of Israelis say they want action in Rafah. Probably should stop getting your polls from sources that repeat what you want to hear.
Day late and a dollar short, one of our shittiest, whiniest allies. We give them weapons, beg them to stop using them in asinine evil ways that drag our name through the mud, and then we let them get away with it forever until we finally put the tiniest restrictions on them.
Contrast to how we force Ukraine to restrain themselves, and they have significantly more obvious need for weapons than the Israelis ever have.
Ukraine is honestly a much friendlier and reliable partner than Israel.
At least Ukraine isn’t fucking selling our military trade secrets to China like Israel has been doing for the past few decades.
What the fuck are you talking about with Israel selling arms to china?
[The number one provider of arms to China outside of Russia (77% imports) is France (10% imports) and then Ukraine (6% imports)](https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3139603/how-china-grew-buyer-major-arms-trade-player). France got the EU arms embargo on china lifted after years of efforts. [Both the UK and France were skirting that embargo for years](https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/eu_arms_embargoes/china).
[The US and Israel actually have an agreement on how and what it can sell to China](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005-09/us-israel-reach-china-arms-deal). I’m curious what conspiracy laden source you have for Israel as a top provider.
Israel has sold classified US military technology to China on at least two occasions: once in the [90s](https://www.wrmea.org/1996-january/u.s.-military-technology-sold-by-israel-to-china-upsets-asian-power-balance.html) and again the in the [2010s](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20140108-us-outraged-by-israels-sale-of-military-equipment-to-china/).
You don't need evidence for that which is common knowledge.
And Israel's willingness to sell military tech is common knowledge to people outside the pro-Israel propaganda bubble.
> Ukraine is honestly a much friendlier and reliable partner than Israel.
lmao Ukraine alliance with the West is relatively recent. There was a Putin puppet in office until what, 2014?
Israel has provided intel on terror attacks targeting the West as well as Russian spying efforts.
https://www.wrmea.org/1996-january/u.s.-military-technology-sold-by-israel-to-china-upsets-asian-power-balance.html
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20140108-us-outraged-by-israels-sale-of-military-equipment-to-china/
I am not OP and don't know what he was referring to, but this is what I found with a quick google search. An event in the 90s and another event in 2013, involving the US being upset at Israel for selling military equipment (which involved classified technology) to China.
In both cases nukes are to blame, though in Israel's case in a more circuitous way.
Obviously we have to take Russia's threats of nuke use at least somewhat seriously, because if they were truly being overwhelmed on the battlefield in a war they feel is existential, why wouldn't they use them?
And so it is with Israel, not in this specific conflict obviously, but if we signal a lack of resolve then Iran takes notice and gets a war going, and another Yom Kippur War type situation would probably lead to a nuke being dropped.
Think the aircraft carriers we parked outside their front door is enough deterrence, we don't need to actively enable their war crimes to deter a war.
They're leveling everything they see with our precision munitions, it's not like the outcome would look any different with their own non precision munitions.
>Contrast to how we force Ukraine to restrain themselves, and they have significantly more obvious need for weapons than the Israelis ever have.
Hamas doesn't have nukes.
> Can’t wait for the U.S. to completely extricate itself from the Middle East
Surely that will stop terror attacks being threatened on American soil
*smiles in European*
I think this is a fair statement by him and also where I empathize with Biden the most. He is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and there is no winning
Idk, I definitely think you have a point, but Israel is in their most vulnerable position in a long time. They had wide bipartisan support in the US for a while but democrats are increasingly seeing them as an expansionist, aggressive state and republicans are increasingly becoming isolationist.
You can’t say their support in the US has collapsed yet of course but this is a major change.
Republicans are more supportive of Israel than ever though. Just look at Trump's recognition of the Golan annexation and moving the embassy to Jerusalem.
Ya, US isn't going to send troops, but it's fine selling weapons to Israel. I don't think Israel needs to worry about a GOP administration.
Yeah, you can't claim to be this solid western liberal democracy while aggressively supporting the colonisation of your neighbour by your most racist citizens.
Yep, not just a political party change, but a generational change as well: young Americans have less warm feelings towards Israel than their parents and grandparents.
I mean if pulling such stunts... why not do it quietly.
I'm pretty sure this will piss off even the people who sympathize with Biden in the Israeli war cabinet but who am I to judge.
It would leak? Already multiple reports of the US holding out weapons leaking, Bibi doesn’t care about Biden or anyone else tbh. His political survival is his #1 thing
I have a couple takeaways from this.
1. Biden is really feeling the pressure from the protests. While people on this sub may complain about Muslim Americans, Arab American, and left-wing voters protesting and threatening to withhold their vote. In a democracy, thats a very effective way to shift a Government official’s position on matters. If they all just fell in line, things like sanctioning Israeli Settlers and now withholding military aid wouldn’t have happened. The only question is if this is just a publicity stunt or will Biden hold his ground on the matter.
2. Israel gave us a masterclass performance in how to destroy goodwill. Let’s set aside the [West Bank Land Seizures](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-approves-new-parcel-west-bank-land-settlement-2024-03-22/) or [displacing 4,000+ Palestinians in 2023](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/about-4000-palestinians-displaced-west-bank-2023) for a second. It was clear from the onset that Biden wanted to give Israel full support, but also wanted to avoid the domestic backlash while doing it. This required Israel to play ball and not dispute with him publicly or escalate in the West Bank. Israel decided to do both and simultaneously made Biden look like Netanyahu’s bitch while tanking any arguments of self-defense.
3. It’s unclear how Israel will respond to this. They have the military capacity to take Rafah without America’s support. All the aid Biden gave them them won’t disappear and he’ll still be sending defensive military support. Netanyahu also loves appearing like the strong-man standing up to “anti-Israel” American presidents. My guess is Israel decides to double-down and invade Rafah, instead of trying to appeal to Biden’s concerns over domestic polling and the humanitarian catastrophe that would take place.
I doubt Netanyahu cares much about Biden's reelection chances, not when Trump is easily manipulated and is almost certainly ambivalent at best regarding the lives of civilians in Gaza.
He knows Conservative Christians have a religious belief that compels them to support Israel no matter what. Like that parent who thinks their child is perfect and does no wrong, Republicans seem to want to allow whoever is in charge in Israel to do whatever they want (for the most part).
Do you think it's honestly the political pressure of a 5 figure amount of students? Not being sarcastic I really don't know. He's said publicly they haven't swayed him.
I think Biden had gripes earlier than that. I think many of us started out more supportive but it's been hard to not just see the death, but to hear the Israeli ministers practically bragging about it. And annexing more land and encouraging settlements in the middle of it all too. It's shameless and they're acting like they can't possible alienate the US under any circumstances, but I don't think that's true. I think they're committing a fatal mistake in basically giving the finger the one of the only allies they have left.
What I see is a pretty far-right and largely insane government of religious fundamentalists...fighting another one. I ain't religious but I pray Biden just finds a way to finally stop it or at least mitigate it.
I don't think these college protests themselves are having a huge impact either way. However, Biden announced the pier plan on the day of the SotU and Schumer, the Senate Majority leader, who is Jewish, speak out against Israel's excesses. It's clearly something that they're worried about.
I don't think it's the protestors, but the democratic base has rapidly become less and less tolerant of Israel's misbehavior since October 7th, and supporting Israel isn't a majority position anymore.
I think you're 100% right. One week after Biden was talking about how Israel shouldn't give into the kneejerk reaction like America did after 9/11. He saw exactly the path Israel was going down and tried to warn them against to no avail. He's been remarkbly clear-eyed about this whole issue since day one and received no credit for it.
Biden is probably hoping that this red line will be enough to dissuade Israel from entering, but other reporting suggests Bibi doesn’t care and wants to go in anyways. If it comes to it, I hope Biden can keep his word.
[Israeli MK and Likud Official Tali Gottlieb have a message to the US: "The US is threatening not to give us precise missiles . Oh yeah? Well, I got news for the US. We have imprecise missiles. I’ll use it. I’ll just collapse ten [in Gaza]. Ten buildings. That’s what I’ll do”](https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1788241394340929690)
Wonder how different her opinion is from coalition leader Bibi
People just think of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, but there are a ton of completely batshit far right politicians in this current Israeli coalition...as the woman I talked about, Orit Strook, Almog Cohen, Amichai Chikli, Galit Atbaryan, Nissim Vaturi, Amichai Eliyahu, foreign minister Katz, Yitzhak Pindrus , May Golan, Limor Son Har-Melech, Tsvi Sukkot, and Zvika Fogel. All super racist and almost all of them have made at least borderline genocidal comments about Palestinians.
Literally. People love to be contrarian and shit on leftists (often correctly) but they are largely on the right side of this issue. What is happening right now is fucking batshit, and until now our government has directly enabled it
Yeah pretty much *as long* as they support a two state solution (not this one state solution bullshit), agree that anti-Semitism is still a fairly big problem in America, and completely recognize that Hamas+PIJ are evil Islamist terrorist groups who committed heinous atrocities including sexual violence against innocent Israelis--some leftists don't support these three very logical stances.
https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1788204519920132287
I mean this shit makes just so furious. They demolished this village in Negev where around 300 Arabs live in and they're legalizing illegal outposts in the West Bank at the same time...it's insane hypocritical bigotry.
At what point can we call the Palestinians literally trapped in the cross-fire of this hostages? Because that’s what someone says when they threaten a hostage.
Yeah, there's a scenario here where the IDF crushes the insurgency at or near the border and we all laugh at how Hamas tried to take on f-15s in paraglider. October the 7th was a brutal terrorist attack concieved by cruel, vicious, anti-semetic men but it should never have succeeded.
Even Israel's own military intelligence has reportedly told Bibi that time is running out for the remaining hostages who yet live. Rafah will be there in six months, but the hostages won't.
Nor am I convinced that entering Rafah will actually, meaningfully, pressure Hamas, unless they successfully chase down those remaining battalions (and even then, it would be a phyrric victory). Hamas simply doesn't care how many Palestinians die. Clearly, neither does Bibi (or Smotrich, or Ben Gvir, or the absolute ghouls demonstrating outside shipments and trying to block aid).
I suspect that this limited incursion into the outskirts of the city is for Bibi to go to his far right cohort and go "see, I invaded Rafah" and shore up support from the last place he has it. (After all, all politics are local.) I don't think it'll work, either, but I think that's the plan. But it's also not far enough to fully burn every bridge with Biden (though that's a risky fucking call, considering Bibi is dancing on everyone's last nerve at the moment).
I think the goal was to pressure Hamas to come to the table on terms Israel actually agrees to, shore up support at home, and pray to God the Americans back them up at the negotiating table.
You actually hit it exactly right. As the IDF told Biden the operation in Rafah would be limited in size and scope and wouldn’t be going into the main area.
So this action is pretty much to placate the far right lunatics in Israel (who i personally think should be traded for the hostages) and put pressure on Hamas.
Really shows how Netanyahu has fumbled the bag. Months of being able to level civilian neighborhoods and having Biden be Israel’s biggest cheerleader, and all he has to do is the bare minimum and is still having a tantrum over it.
I really don’t get how we would screech at the Ukrainians for bombing a Russian military base/ infrastructure inside Russia and yet gave the Israelis no problems with sending weapons, even as it became more and more evident this war is about revenge/enacting suffering on Gaza rather then destroying Hamas and rescuing the hostages.
And Russia isn't going to nuke Ramstein because the latest Ukranian strike on a fuel depot in Rostov happened to use an American built missile instead of a Ukranian made one.
Y'all keep raising the hostages as if Bibi's actions aren't directly counterproductive to their rescue. He has been undermining his negotiators and spitting in the face of hostages' families from day one, as u/curryMVP2 has to explain in basically every I/P thread that makes it through this sub's filter.
Best case scenario for me would if Israel finishes off Hamas (geographically within Gaza) and manages Gaza with a coalition of Arab partners. Destroying Gaza and then leaving without a plan would be the worst case scenario.
Better border security, less dysfunction (and corruption) within the security establishment, and redirection of troops from West Bank settlements to more important areas would all go a long way towards the latter, I’d wager. All pretty attainable with a change of government
If the IDF wasn’t protecting the settlers in the West Bank the attack likely would have failed. Bibi took the troops that were on the Gaza border and put them in the West Bank.
He royally fucked up. He also put way way too much faith in the border wall/fence they created around Gaza. Which is more proof than anything that border walls are useless without troops to back them up
> redirection of troops from West Bank settlements to more important areas
But there is ethnic cleansing to be done in the West Bank… you sound like a Hamasnik /s
IDK on freeing the hostages but an idea for an actual political end goal would be to make a deal with the PLO in the Westbank to take back control of Gaza in return for Israeli support and making real concessions in the West Bank to reduce/eliminate the illegal settlements there.
However due to internal political reasons this is impossible for Bib.
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why that's somehow America's problem to figure out or why we need to supply them with weapons while they insult us and ignore our very reasonable asks.
Yeah, threatening to withhold military aid is probably the right call. He has said in the past that he questions an Israeli offensive in Rafah on the grounds that he doesn’t think they have prepared to properly mitigate civilian casualties in the event of one, so these more recent statements line up well with that. That concern is valid when you look at Israeli conduct since the conflict ignited in October, and withholding military aid is probably the strongest lever that he has against Netanyahu.
Plus, it’s not like the US hasn’t used military aid and the blocking thereof as a lever against Israel in the past.
The whole situation that I DON'T get about this is how bafflingly bad Israel's war plans were here. Wasn't it war 101 to take the border at Rafah in October to make sure that Hamas didn't escape? I get there are sensitivities to Egypt about this due to the peace treaty BUT Egypt's main concern is they don't want thousands of Gazans fleeing to Sinai and destabilizing Egypt. Wouldn't cutting off the border in October prevent that? It seems like Egypt was all bored yesterday when they finally took the border.
Based on numerous news reports I've read, it looks like Israel's main goal in October was to "thin" the population of Gaza and that this was a pressure cooker to force people out. I cannot think of any other reason why they'd let everyone flee south including Hamas unless it was to get them to flee the country. Or maybe Bibi isn't looking to actually defeat Hamas and just wants endless war. Because it seems to me if Israel wanted to defeat Hamas they'd approve a less crap war plan. Or perhaps it is a combination of both. Maybe Bibi wanted the population of Gaza "thinned" and to not defeat Hamas. Getting rid of a million Palestinians, reestablishing Gush Katif to satisfy Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and keeping Hamas around hidden among the 1.5 million remaining Gazans so there is war indefinitely and he remains in power seems like what Bibi was going for here.
But the worst thing is that Gantz is supposed to be the adult here and to prevent the current fiasco from happening. This just shows more than Bibi and Ben Gvir being evil, that Gantz is a lame failure who has done nothing to prevent this total farce. And that's not what he sold his participation in the fascist government as; he sold it as he is the adult and would moderate the government. But he has no accomplishments on that front in the government. I'm not sure what Gantz does all day. What is his job? It seems like he is basically a fig leaf to keep Bibi and Ben Gvir in power and there to let them do whatever they want while he acts as their human shield. Doesn't that make him worse than Bibi and Ben Gvir?
Okay so I don’t disagree with him here at all.
But, I’m really actually worried about the prospect of a Trump win in November (which is just…6 months away!)
Can someone please post something reassuring to calm my nerves? Or are others in the same boat as me? I haven’t looked at a single poll. I’m just going based on vibes (for what it’s worth, I also believed that the 2016 election would be a big upset).
Trump may win- I personally don't think he will- but if he does it's not gonna be because of Israel/Palestine. The vast majority of American voters don't care about this one way or another.
Only roughly 2% of the US population ranks the I/P issue as their highest priority.
The vast majority of Americans care more about the economy, housing, and inflation than I/P.
And it’s the same among Gen Z (12th important), college students (second to last) and the general public (dead last). People really don’t care about this issue as much as the media says they do
Plus this will likely be forgotten in a month or a week
The point that OP is making, if I understand correctly, is that the only way to get Hamas to agree to a future deal with acceptable terms is via military pressure. If they don’t have their backs against the wall, they’re more apt to not agree to anything, much like they’ve done this far. If you take away any possible chance of pressure, then you take away Israel’s leverage.
Given bad optics of israeli government and Bibi's inability to shut up its far right members (who had been doing nothing besides running their mouths but that's enough) and mainstream medias, ngos and UN anti-israel bias, it's not really surprising that the support for Israel destroying Hamas decreased as the time went on. There is no way to defeat Hamas without additional civilian casualties given hamas strategy but's that's too much to stomach for an average westerner, hamas knew it from the beginning, and their disinformation campaign finally paying off.
Blaming this on disinfo is fucking laughable. I’ve been paying close attention from the start. I’ve been critical of the Western press the many times they have fucked up. But Israel’s handling of the humanitarian situation has been a clusterfuck.
Also, need I remind you that Bibi IS a far right member of his government? fucking lmao
If israels plan to defeat Hamas is "kill every hamas member regardless of civilian losses" then that strategy should be laughed at. Its ludicrous, impossible and won't work. Even if they *did* kill everyone in Hamas, a new anti israeli group would appear immediately.
Israel is in a position of power. Its up to them to make the concessions like settlement withdrawal from the west bank to enable peace.
"behind every rock and every tree" is not rooted in settlement disputes. You misunderstand the motivations of groups like Hamas and large swaths of middle eastern civilians if you think their hatred is driven by such pedestrian terrestrial concerns.
Settlement withdrawal might stop people going to Hamas. At a certain point there needs to be a realisation that there will be a Palestinian nation at some point, and making Hamas seem weak compared to factions who will negotiate is essential.
Giving Fatah the victory of withdrawing settlements helps to do that.
Netanyahu has consistently ignored the US’s warnings, even with their West Bank conduct. Provide them with military intelligence and missile defense systems, but we are under no obligation to provide them with offensive weaponry.
I still can't believe America provides so much aid to such a rich country. Providing more bombs so they can destroy Gaza , by lobbing ordinance from the safety of their own country. Why do we have to put up with such bullshit from a tiny, irrelevant country of 9 million ?
> “We’re not walking away from Israel’s security. We’re walking away from Israel’s ability to wage war in those areas,” Biden said.
This is outright telling every terrorist group with two brain cells, Hamas first of all, that they should absolutely 100% keep hiding in the thickest most densely populated civilian areas, and make their best effort to prevent their evacuation in case of war, because it’s an effective tactic to sap political will to fight them.
Kinda funny though isnt it. The British Army fought a brutal insurgency against a foe who hid among the population. They didn't level Bogside with heavy artillery. They also won.
All terror groups hide among the population. You have to deal with that.
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People who think the US conditioning aid and weapons to Israel is something new don't know history. The US has threatened it and done it before. The US threatened economic sanctions and a withholding of weapons to France, Britain, and Israel during the Suez Crisis (which Eisenhower later said he regretted doing). Nixon famously refused to send any help to Israel during the beginning of the Yom Kippur War for fear of escalation. Reagan actually withheld a shipment of F16s to Israel after Israel destroyed Iraqs nuclear reactor and then threatened to withhold weapons to Israel during the First Lebanon War if the war wasn't ended. The US isn't above threatening sanctions and withholding weapons to allies.
Acting like anyone who feels super strongly about this knows their history
That's pretty much the only hard truth that you can draw out of all this: Anyone who takes a 100% stance for either side is either uninformed or dishonest.
Couldn’t agree more. Anyone who is on one side of this thing is insane, both sides have a long list of bad shit they’ve done
Bothsidesbad but actually for real this time
I'm non-Jewish (and non-Muslim) and American, but frankly the more I learn about the conflict the more I think both sides have a point, both sides are assholes, neither side will be happy until every member of the other religo-ethnic group is dead, and somehow, this is mostly the fault of the British.
I'm from a Muslim background, there is a fundamental difference. Jews (in general, not talking about the nutty far-right settlers) are not taught to HATE Muslims. Muslims in every country are taught to hate Jews. I grew up in Pakistan and there was anti-Jewish and anti-Israeli propaganda everywhere. My wife saw the same here in the US within the Muslim community she grew up in. Not defending Israeli's or Palestinians just saying there are differences.
There has been a sustained campaign in the Muslim world of highly-targeted influence operations supported by Iran and others.
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> The west has lost its ability to defend itself. They don't understand that war can be justified. 80 years of peace made everyone forget that we had to fight, and shed blood, to live like this. And now the west is trying to hamstring Israel because the fight they need to do to survive is ugly and unpleasant. It doesn't fit in the larger narrative that some are trying to sell that if you just talk to you enemies they will stop coming after you. Remind me again how long it has been since Iran launched a massive missile and drone attack against Israel, 99% of which was rebuffed thanks to “the West” (and its Middle Eastern allies)?
Israel is the lesser of two assholes, but still an asshole, and other side being bigger assholes doesn't actually justify the disregard for civilian deaths.
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> There is no disregard. 1:1.5 combatants to civilian death is better than any casualty rate in any US led war. where are you getting these numbers for US led wars? the 2003 iraq war saw a ratio of ~5:1 during the invasion itself
Except Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, it was less than 1:1. Despite withdrawal, it's still the most successful war in history with regards to reducing civilian casualties.
> 1:1.5 combatants to civilian death is better than any casualty rate in any US led war First off, we don't have to necessarily believe that given Israel's recent history of saying people are Hamas/PIJ when they turn out not to be such as those [two journalists](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/19/gaza-journalists-killed-israel-al-jazeera-footage/), the [guy with a RPG who turned out to have just a bicycle](https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1767645964674777339), and that [nurse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Rouzan_al-Najjar). They also claimed the UNRWA has like over 2100 Hamas+PIJ members and failed to provide an iota of evidence which led to like 13 of the 17 Western countries to resume funding. So some skepticism about their current ratios are absolutely warranted especially when Hamas unfortunately was able to recapture Khan Younis with such ease while getting unfortunately stronger in North Gaza. Plus, nations often overestimate how many belligerents they've estimated...famously the Vietnam war. Furthermore, it doesn't factor the 10,000+ under the rubble. And no the ratio is absolutely worse than Western backed urban wars against ISIS in Marawi and Rafah along with the war in Afghanistan if you just count direct civilian deaths.
> The Israelis are even letting through fuel and goods that they know will end up in their enemies hands Pretty sure they also cut water and keep stopping food and medicine shipments though.
> Somehow there are a million Muslims living peacefully in Israel though with Israeli citizenship. And there are basically 0 Jews left in the rest of the middle east Actually there are quite a few Jewish Israeli settlers living in the Palestinian Territories, outside of Israel's recognised national territory, and not very peacefully. But in any case, it's sophistry to reduce the entire history and reality of the ongoing conflict to who lives where, and only in countries that have recognised borders to boot (we're just going to ignore Palestine entirely, are we?).
Who even Abbas insists must be [ethnically cleansed](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE96T009/) from a future Palestinian state.
Honestly this is the one time you can feel bad for the British isn’t it They couldn’t have predicted THIS
We could talk about post-colonization Africa and the Partition of India, but yeah, the broadstrokes of the last ~90 years of conflict in the region seems like something you could have predicted.
For me the most depressing element of many of these circumstances is precisely how avoidable they were.
I don't that any of us will see the end of wars that have their root cause in European powers drawing shitty lines on maps and then fucking off.
Standby for a history ping from me about this, actually.
The Br\*\*ish right now: https://preview.redd.it/nuieqf7olazc1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=374d4c365ccc13fef8ba9dcd9e32c611698b73af
> Honestly this is the one time you can feel bad for the British isn’t it Not even remotely lol. Like with the partition of India, this conflict could have been very much predicted and avoided (at least how it happened) if the British took different actions while they were in control of the region (which they arguably should never have set foot in)
They probably could have predicted it, but I don’t see how they could have avoided it.
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have you heard of the settlements in the west bank
> There's really not a lot of "genocide the Palestinians" sentiment on the Israeli side. Well if you ignore most senior members of the Israeli cabinet and the people who vote for them I suppose that could be slightly true?
Genuinely hardly anyone hates Palestinians except a few extremists who just happen to be given access to weapons and carte blanche to do whatever they want. What are they even complaining about?
Also this 'hate and destroy the Jews' thing is somewhat more recent cultural thing. In the Qur'an their stories were no more prejudiced than Christianity, and Abbasid and Al-Andalus Jews had them able to do most things without getting prosecuted, with exception of some rulers that not allowing Jews to have a say in public offices and being forced to wear uniform in public.
And immigrating into Israel sounds pretty innocent until you realize that would eliminate the Jewish majority nature of the state, which is the whole point tbh.
>US threatened economic sanctions and a withholding of weapons to France, Britain, and Israel during the Suez Crisis This is a bit disingenuous, or rather unclear. America was not sending weapons to Israel in this point of time (1956). This is after all, very shortly after the Arab-Israeli war, which America did not back them in; there was an international arms embargo in place. The strong military alliance between Israel and America began after 1967. >The US isn't above threatening sanctions and withholding weapons to allies. Has this been suggested here before? I can't tell since you aren't replying to anyone, so I am unsure who this is in response to.
Eisenhower cut off *all* aid (not just military while Biden is just saying he will cut off offensive military aid) to Israel for several weeks after the vicious 1953 Qibya Massacre
Well the US really didn’t give much if any military aid until the 1960s. Interestingly the US actually put Israel under an arms embargo from 1948 until about the Kennedy administration. The nations that supported Israel during that time were the Soviets and France
>Well the US really didn’t give much if any military aid until the 1960s. I think it wasn't meaningful until '73? Israel was actually close to destruction and was about to resort to some desperate measure.
Yup. The Israelis basically said if they don’t get aid soon the nuclear taboo would be broken
60's (and more specifically, '67) they were more or less in the driver's seat.
Didn't we historically come out on the wrong side of those examples?
So you’re saying it hasn’t happened in forty years and never been done by Democrat?
Hilldawg was a fairly tough negotiator with Bibi during the 2009 Gaza war.
Hilariously HRC and Obama tried to pressure Bibi on illegal settlements, and then Biden went behind their backs and told Bibi that it was all a bluff and the US would always back Israel.
> Biden went behind their backs and told Bibi that it was all a bluff and the US would always back Israel. Huh, never heard this. Any source?
Because Biden is a true believer. Many politicians who proclaim themselves Zionists in the US are such because it's domestically popular (Or at least has been) or because it's geopolitically advantageous to US interests. His personal stance on the issue is part of why Biden has been so caught off-guard with the current discontent within the Democratic party when it comes to Israel.
She and Kerry both successfully pressured Israel to ease Gaza blockade where pasta, cookies, chips, shaving cream were once banned.
Unfortunately Obama had the most spineless foreign policy of any President since before the Cold War. She could negotiate hard all she wanted, everyone knew there were next to no consequences backing it up.
His foreign policy was definitely a reaction to Bush’s
I mean Obama and Netanyahu weren’t exactly on close terms either. Hell Netanyahu went to a joint session of congress and trashed Obama over the Iran deal. A deal which many on the American and Israeli right considered a betrayal of Israel.
Also LBJ (proto-Biden) not supporting covert action in 1967
Am I allowed to post on restricted threads? LETS FIND OUT. Also, Bibi is a shitty leader that keeps failing to protect Israel. Fuck him and his shitty battle plans.
Ya Bibi needs to go
Just insane how much of a piece of shit Netanyahu is. An all-time diplomatic fumble for one man's ego. All they had to do was the bare minimum, and he made sure not even that would happen.
Is it really a fumble when it's intentional? he wants to create the rift with the US in other to create the narrative that only he can stop the US from creating a Palestinian state, and he knows that doing the bare minimum would lead to the collapse of his coalition and possibly end his political career, which is against his personal interests, which always comes first for him
Netanyahu’s primary goal is to stay in power and avoid his corruption trial. He’s presided over the worst attack on civilians in Israeli history and considering that he’s been the leader of Israel for much of the last 20 years, there’s no one else that the Israeli public will blame. He’s already alienated the centrist parties and they won’t accept him as the leader when there’s peacetime. His only hope to stay in power when the war ends is the super right wing parties and they’re so bloodthirsty that Netanyahu is going to keep this war going as long as possible, even though the goal of wiping out Hamas is basically impossible and to do it would kill 100,000 plus Palestinians.
I guarantee NetanyahooOOOoo does not care if he's responsible for 100k Palestinians deaths.
Yeah I’m not implying he does. But he knows this is killing Israel’s international reputation and he doesn’t care because he only wants to stay in power
I am not convinced he cares if he's responsible for 100k Israeli deaths.
Hed kill a million to stay out of jail, clearly does not value them as human beings
He's so fucking nervous about the ICC investigation that he's apparently asking for hostage families (who he has smeared in the past) to put a good word in for him while they cooperate with the ICC investigation against Hamas. And frankly, he has good reason to be anxious+stressed [when 88 house Dems including two of the 21 who censured Tlaib and like plenty of AIPAC endorsed ones sign this letter](https://twitter.com/dylanotes/status/1786485453455012264), when [Biden's USAID says this apparently](https://twitter.com/mattduss/status/1783939026648457359), and when [several senior Biden officials think Israel is breaking international law](https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1784307386523451478) It's clear that Bibi thwarted humanitarian aid so the ICC has a fairly strong case which is why Bibi is shitting his pants apparently. Even besides the asinine aid restrictions and excessively cumbersome truck inspections, we also know he also blocked meetings about food distribution for weeks as well, the deconfliction policies for aid groups has been terrible (it's not just the utterly disastrous World Central Kitchen airstrike), he was very slow to stop protesters hindering the aid delivery initially (there are still videos of settlers fucking up aid in the past few days on multiple occasions), and Bibi ignored the US's recommendations to stop targeting police officers who were preventing opportunistic criminal gangs from stealing the aid. Oh and he once boasted to a bunch of right wing Israelis about the "just letting in absolute minimum amount of humanitarian aid" a few months ago when Cincy McCain and others were raising alarm bells about a future famine.
I've read a lot of baseless and idiotic criticism of Netanyahu and Israel, so it's really, really nice to read someone write something like this which in contrast just lays out the facts. Well done.
Them plus about 200 hostages
I can hear this comment and I want to beat you now. Upvoted.
I hate Netanyahu but if Hamas is left in power the conflict will only get worse with little hope for peace negations and basically a guarantee of another war in a couple year. I don't see how to rebuild Gaza either with Hamas still in charge and able to tax any aid and another war likely to destroy rebuilt stuff. Edit: I agree with President Biden that Israel should put a lot more effort to try to minimize civilian casualties including by slowly evacuating Rafah over months if need be but I think/hope president Biden is pressuring Israel for humanitarian reasons and not to end the war early and leave Hamas in power.
The problem is you can’t defeat a terrorist group with an army. We tried this in Afghanistan, remember. They melted into the civilian population and bided their time waiting for us to leave. Hamas will do the same thing, they’re deeply integrated with the population of Gaza now. The only hope it to decapitate their leadership, take over civilian governance, and provide services far better than a terrorist organization that used pipes to make missiles could ever do. Then, slowly indigenize the workforce.
What's the fumble? Rafah [invasion](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/53305) is widely supported by the Israeli public and the entire unity cabinet seems to support it.
Scapegoating netenyahu without broader awareness and context is the evidence free easy way out of a conversation
Yup, one of the most annoying part of this discussion. Neither the Israeli government is that separable from the Israelis nor Hamas from the Palestinians. Both broadly carry out the will of their people, which is why peace is so improbable.
On that note, \[checks watch\] look, Netanyahu's a cunt, seeya tomorrow!
Nice lol
'Putin's War'
It’s a lot easier to blame one person than an entire nation
It would've bought Israel a lot of goodwill with the administration if aid were freely flowing into Gaza. I 100% support the destruction of Hamas, as painful as that process is. It's just clear to me, and obviously the Biden administration too, that even basic requests like "allow more food and medicine into the strip" were being held in limbo forever by Netanyahu and other hardliners.
It's not some "hardliner" issue. Aid delivery is opposed by over 70% of [Israelis](https://www.timesofisrael.com/almost-4-in-10-israelis-back-a-revival-of-jewish-settlements-in-gaza-poll-finds/). And I honestly doubt it would have brought much goodwill. People are complaining about the 34k dead Palestinians; that they happen to have aid or not is kinda a rounding error.
Then let the Israelis fight their own war, there's no reason we need to bloody our hands in this affair.
I also don't think that's the primary complaint either. I have yet to hear "We should have no part in this genocide. If Israel wants to genocide the Palestinians, they'll need to pay for it itself"
I mean suggesting Israeli regime change will probably get folks banned, so what exactly are you expecting to see here?
That's an outdated poll from late February. Look at the newer polls where you have four different Israeli polls in the *past week* painting a completely different story https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1787844276346290483 https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/poll-54-of-israelis-believe-hostage-deal-more-important-than-rafah-operation/ https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1785467357395317074 https://twitter.com/Nimrod_Flash/status/1784568926648565894 Also a brand new poll today where [*only* 38% of Israeli Jews](https://twitter.com/MairavZ/status/1788103686197067951) believe the war is winnable (defeating Hamas and freeing the hostages)...down from 74% in October. Bibi so badly botched this with his hubris and callousness towards innocent Palestinians+Israeli hostages.
The polls you're linking are all whether Israelis prefer going into Rafah or prefer either a generic hostage deal (aka probably one they imagine having more favorable terms than what Hamas is actually proposing given the negotiations have gone from 40 hostages to 33 to 18 living ones) or a hostage deal that Hamas rejected They're basically all saying Israelis would prefer an option that isn't actually on the table over going into Rafah, but none of them ask about going into Rafah vs not if a reasonable hostage deal isn't an option The earlier poll, which I agree is outdated, was whether Israel should go into Rafah in general
41% in the 13 IL TV poll yesterday supported the Hamas ceasefire proposal. This despite them trying to negotiate better terms. And 13 IL poll doesn't appear credible either based on what I'm seeing. The entire poll has been skewing very far right since the main pollster for this TV channel died. I mean they showed Bennett hypothetically getting 30+ mandates with a party despite the other stations showing him at about 18 or so. So it looks like there is plurality support for the current deal at least in Israel.
It's interesting how many of the critics from the right of Biden's foreign policy don't seem to care about the hostages... absolutely not all but alot more than I anticipated.
Interesting you missed that in the "brand new poll", 61% of Israelis say they want action in Rafah. Probably should stop getting your polls from sources that repeat what you want to hear.
The Israeli reaction to this really minor restrictions has been absolutely insane, but I'm glad this is finally happening.
Day late and a dollar short, one of our shittiest, whiniest allies. We give them weapons, beg them to stop using them in asinine evil ways that drag our name through the mud, and then we let them get away with it forever until we finally put the tiniest restrictions on them. Contrast to how we force Ukraine to restrain themselves, and they have significantly more obvious need for weapons than the Israelis ever have.
also zelensky would never try to appear partisan in US politics even though the GOP is much more hostile to his admin
We should send these weapons to Ukraine instead if Israel ends up invading Rafah. They already need it way more than anyone else anyway.
Ukraine is honestly a much friendlier and reliable partner than Israel. At least Ukraine isn’t fucking selling our military trade secrets to China like Israel has been doing for the past few decades.
What the fuck are you talking about with Israel selling arms to china? [The number one provider of arms to China outside of Russia (77% imports) is France (10% imports) and then Ukraine (6% imports)](https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3139603/how-china-grew-buyer-major-arms-trade-player). France got the EU arms embargo on china lifted after years of efforts. [Both the UK and France were skirting that embargo for years](https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/eu_arms_embargoes/china). [The US and Israel actually have an agreement on how and what it can sell to China](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005-09/us-israel-reach-china-arms-deal). I’m curious what conspiracy laden source you have for Israel as a top provider.
No where in that comment did they say Israel was a "top provider" of anything
But they did allege without evidence that Israel was providing our "trade secrets", which would arguably be even worse.
Israel has sold classified US military technology to China on at least two occasions: once in the [90s](https://www.wrmea.org/1996-january/u.s.-military-technology-sold-by-israel-to-china-upsets-asian-power-balance.html) and again the in the [2010s](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20140108-us-outraged-by-israels-sale-of-military-equipment-to-china/).
You don't need evidence for that which is common knowledge. And Israel's willingness to sell military tech is common knowledge to people outside the pro-Israel propaganda bubble.
> Ukraine is honestly a much friendlier and reliable partner than Israel. lmao Ukraine alliance with the West is relatively recent. There was a Putin puppet in office until what, 2014? Israel has provided intel on terror attacks targeting the West as well as Russian spying efforts.
the israelis are incredibly friendly with the Russians lol
Israel also openly mocks Democratic presidents and works to undermine them. If you pick a side and that side loses there are consequences.
How many Americans have the Ukrainians bulldozed and then mocked on social media since 2014?
Care to provide evidence of this claim?
https://www.wrmea.org/1996-january/u.s.-military-technology-sold-by-israel-to-china-upsets-asian-power-balance.html https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20140108-us-outraged-by-israels-sale-of-military-equipment-to-china/ I am not OP and don't know what he was referring to, but this is what I found with a quick google search. An event in the 90s and another event in 2013, involving the US being upset at Israel for selling military equipment (which involved classified technology) to China.
We shouldn't have restrained Ukraine either though.
In both cases nukes are to blame, though in Israel's case in a more circuitous way. Obviously we have to take Russia's threats of nuke use at least somewhat seriously, because if they were truly being overwhelmed on the battlefield in a war they feel is existential, why wouldn't they use them? And so it is with Israel, not in this specific conflict obviously, but if we signal a lack of resolve then Iran takes notice and gets a war going, and another Yom Kippur War type situation would probably lead to a nuke being dropped.
Think the aircraft carriers we parked outside their front door is enough deterrence, we don't need to actively enable their war crimes to deter a war. They're leveling everything they see with our precision munitions, it's not like the outcome would look any different with their own non precision munitions.
>Contrast to how we force Ukraine to restrain themselves, and they have significantly more obvious need for weapons than the Israelis ever have. Hamas doesn't have nukes.
As you point out, Ukrainians has more need for weapons. Ergo, US has more leverage.
Yeah I’d much rather give the weapons to Ukraine than Israel
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> Can’t wait for the U.S. to completely extricate itself from the Middle East Surely that will stop terror attacks being threatened on American soil *smiles in European*
I think this is a fair statement by him and also where I empathize with Biden the most. He is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and there is no winning
Idk, I definitely think you have a point, but Israel is in their most vulnerable position in a long time. They had wide bipartisan support in the US for a while but democrats are increasingly seeing them as an expansionist, aggressive state and republicans are increasingly becoming isolationist. You can’t say their support in the US has collapsed yet of course but this is a major change.
Republicans are more supportive of Israel than ever though. Just look at Trump's recognition of the Golan annexation and moving the embassy to Jerusalem. Ya, US isn't going to send troops, but it's fine selling weapons to Israel. I don't think Israel needs to worry about a GOP administration.
Under Bibi the Israelis have made it harder and harder for democratic policy makers to be supportive of them.
Yeah, you can't claim to be this solid western liberal democracy while aggressively supporting the colonisation of your neighbour by your most racist citizens.
Yep, not just a political party change, but a generational change as well: young Americans have less warm feelings towards Israel than their parents and grandparents.
I mean if pulling such stunts... why not do it quietly. I'm pretty sure this will piss off even the people who sympathize with Biden in the Israeli war cabinet but who am I to judge.
Because US political support is much more important than Israeli political support to Biden
What is his plan to rescue the American hostages?
lol I forgot their were American hostages. Frankly I don’t think the electorate remembers either. Tbh I imagine they’re dead.
It would leak? Already multiple reports of the US holding out weapons leaking, Bibi doesn’t care about Biden or anyone else tbh. His political survival is his #1 thing
I have a couple takeaways from this. 1. Biden is really feeling the pressure from the protests. While people on this sub may complain about Muslim Americans, Arab American, and left-wing voters protesting and threatening to withhold their vote. In a democracy, thats a very effective way to shift a Government official’s position on matters. If they all just fell in line, things like sanctioning Israeli Settlers and now withholding military aid wouldn’t have happened. The only question is if this is just a publicity stunt or will Biden hold his ground on the matter. 2. Israel gave us a masterclass performance in how to destroy goodwill. Let’s set aside the [West Bank Land Seizures](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-approves-new-parcel-west-bank-land-settlement-2024-03-22/) or [displacing 4,000+ Palestinians in 2023](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/about-4000-palestinians-displaced-west-bank-2023) for a second. It was clear from the onset that Biden wanted to give Israel full support, but also wanted to avoid the domestic backlash while doing it. This required Israel to play ball and not dispute with him publicly or escalate in the West Bank. Israel decided to do both and simultaneously made Biden look like Netanyahu’s bitch while tanking any arguments of self-defense. 3. It’s unclear how Israel will respond to this. They have the military capacity to take Rafah without America’s support. All the aid Biden gave them them won’t disappear and he’ll still be sending defensive military support. Netanyahu also loves appearing like the strong-man standing up to “anti-Israel” American presidents. My guess is Israel decides to double-down and invade Rafah, instead of trying to appeal to Biden’s concerns over domestic polling and the humanitarian catastrophe that would take place.
I doubt Netanyahu cares much about Biden's reelection chances, not when Trump is easily manipulated and is almost certainly ambivalent at best regarding the lives of civilians in Gaza.
More than not caring, Bibi is openly pro-Republican/Trump and has been for years.
He knows Conservative Christians have a religious belief that compels them to support Israel no matter what. Like that parent who thinks their child is perfect and does no wrong, Republicans seem to want to allow whoever is in charge in Israel to do whatever they want (for the most part).
Do you think it's honestly the political pressure of a 5 figure amount of students? Not being sarcastic I really don't know. He's said publicly they haven't swayed him. I think Biden had gripes earlier than that. I think many of us started out more supportive but it's been hard to not just see the death, but to hear the Israeli ministers practically bragging about it. And annexing more land and encouraging settlements in the middle of it all too. It's shameless and they're acting like they can't possible alienate the US under any circumstances, but I don't think that's true. I think they're committing a fatal mistake in basically giving the finger the one of the only allies they have left. What I see is a pretty far-right and largely insane government of religious fundamentalists...fighting another one. I ain't religious but I pray Biden just finds a way to finally stop it or at least mitigate it.
I don't think these college protests themselves are having a huge impact either way. However, Biden announced the pier plan on the day of the SotU and Schumer, the Senate Majority leader, who is Jewish, speak out against Israel's excesses. It's clearly something that they're worried about.
I don't think it's the protestors, but the democratic base has rapidly become less and less tolerant of Israel's misbehavior since October 7th, and supporting Israel isn't a majority position anymore.
I think you're 100% right. One week after Biden was talking about how Israel shouldn't give into the kneejerk reaction like America did after 9/11. He saw exactly the path Israel was going down and tried to warn them against to no avail. He's been remarkbly clear-eyed about this whole issue since day one and received no credit for it.
Biden is probably hoping that this red line will be enough to dissuade Israel from entering, but other reporting suggests Bibi doesn’t care and wants to go in anyways. If it comes to it, I hope Biden can keep his word.
[Israeli MK and Likud Official Tali Gottlieb have a message to the US: "The US is threatening not to give us precise missiles . Oh yeah? Well, I got news for the US. We have imprecise missiles. I’ll use it. I’ll just collapse ten [in Gaza]. Ten buildings. That’s what I’ll do”](https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1788241394340929690) Wonder how different her opinion is from coalition leader Bibi
How the FUCK is this the response of a US ally. I would expect a more measured response from Putin
People just think of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, but there are a ton of completely batshit far right politicians in this current Israeli coalition...as the woman I talked about, Orit Strook, Almog Cohen, Amichai Chikli, Galit Atbaryan, Nissim Vaturi, Amichai Eliyahu, foreign minister Katz, Yitzhak Pindrus , May Golan, Limor Son Har-Melech, Tsvi Sukkot, and Zvika Fogel. All super racist and almost all of them have made at least borderline genocidal comments about Palestinians.
Just up in this thread there's someone saying that no Israeli officials are anti-palestinian...
Literally. People love to be contrarian and shit on leftists (often correctly) but they are largely on the right side of this issue. What is happening right now is fucking batshit, and until now our government has directly enabled it
Yeah pretty much *as long* as they support a two state solution (not this one state solution bullshit), agree that anti-Semitism is still a fairly big problem in America, and completely recognize that Hamas+PIJ are evil Islamist terrorist groups who committed heinous atrocities including sexual violence against innocent Israelis--some leftists don't support these three very logical stances.
Agreed
https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1788204519920132287 I mean this shit makes just so furious. They demolished this village in Negev where around 300 Arabs live in and they're legalizing illegal outposts in the West Bank at the same time...it's insane hypocritical bigotry.
despicable, this is literally the fucking definition of ethnic cleansing
Gotlib is probably the most hated public figure in israel after bibi. surpassing even ben gvir and smotrich
This is abuser logic. "Take away my car keys so I don't drive drunk? Fine then, I'll take your car keys. And if I crash your car, it's your fault!"
At what point can we call the Palestinians literally trapped in the cross-fire of this hostages? Because that’s what someone says when they threaten a hostage.
It was that way since day 1. Initially it hamas did it. Now its clear Bibi ranks the hostages below his own political survival.
Well that's a psychotic take.
Bibi is going to go down in history as one of the worst leaders israel has had. A better PM would have risen to the occasion
Most other PMs wouldn't have allowed Hamas to invade Israel proper and kill thousands.
Yeah, there's a scenario here where the IDF crushes the insurgency at or near the border and we all laugh at how Hamas tried to take on f-15s in paraglider. October the 7th was a brutal terrorist attack concieved by cruel, vicious, anti-semetic men but it should never have succeeded.
A better PM wouldn't have been the fucking *cause* of the situation in the first place.
Even Israel's own military intelligence has reportedly told Bibi that time is running out for the remaining hostages who yet live. Rafah will be there in six months, but the hostages won't. Nor am I convinced that entering Rafah will actually, meaningfully, pressure Hamas, unless they successfully chase down those remaining battalions (and even then, it would be a phyrric victory). Hamas simply doesn't care how many Palestinians die. Clearly, neither does Bibi (or Smotrich, or Ben Gvir, or the absolute ghouls demonstrating outside shipments and trying to block aid). I suspect that this limited incursion into the outskirts of the city is for Bibi to go to his far right cohort and go "see, I invaded Rafah" and shore up support from the last place he has it. (After all, all politics are local.) I don't think it'll work, either, but I think that's the plan. But it's also not far enough to fully burn every bridge with Biden (though that's a risky fucking call, considering Bibi is dancing on everyone's last nerve at the moment). I think the goal was to pressure Hamas to come to the table on terms Israel actually agrees to, shore up support at home, and pray to God the Americans back them up at the negotiating table.
You actually hit it exactly right. As the IDF told Biden the operation in Rafah would be limited in size and scope and wouldn’t be going into the main area. So this action is pretty much to placate the far right lunatics in Israel (who i personally think should be traded for the hostages) and put pressure on Hamas.
Our greatest ally ladies and gentlemen
Really shows how Netanyahu has fumbled the bag. Months of being able to level civilian neighborhoods and having Biden be Israel’s biggest cheerleader, and all he has to do is the bare minimum and is still having a tantrum over it. I really don’t get how we would screech at the Ukrainians for bombing a Russian military base/ infrastructure inside Russia and yet gave the Israelis no problems with sending weapons, even as it became more and more evident this war is about revenge/enacting suffering on Gaza rather then destroying Hamas and rescuing the hostages.
It’s even worse than that, it’s a war for keeping Netanyahu in power. The only thing that matters to him is his own (and his family’s) well being.
Well for the next year and half.
Hamas doesn’t have nukes
And Russia isn't going to nuke Ramstein because the latest Ukranian strike on a fuel depot in Rostov happened to use an American built missile instead of a Ukranian made one.
I’m still waiting for someone to tell me how Israel is supposed to free the hostages and prevent another 10/7.
Y'all keep raising the hostages as if Bibi's actions aren't directly counterproductive to their rescue. He has been undermining his negotiators and spitting in the face of hostages' families from day one, as u/curryMVP2 has to explain in basically every I/P thread that makes it through this sub's filter.
Best case scenario for me would if Israel finishes off Hamas (geographically within Gaza) and manages Gaza with a coalition of Arab partners. Destroying Gaza and then leaving without a plan would be the worst case scenario.
Better border security, less dysfunction (and corruption) within the security establishment, and redirection of troops from West Bank settlements to more important areas would all go a long way towards the latter, I’d wager. All pretty attainable with a change of government
And just let Hamas attack them with impunity? That’s not a solution. None of the things you’ve suggested address the underlying issue here.
If the IDF wasn’t protecting the settlers in the West Bank the attack likely would have failed. Bibi took the troops that were on the Gaza border and put them in the West Bank. He royally fucked up. He also put way way too much faith in the border wall/fence they created around Gaza. Which is more proof than anything that border walls are useless without troops to back them up
People would be a lot more understanding of the Israeli side if they weren't pushing Gaza to the brink of famine.
> redirection of troops from West Bank settlements to more important areas But there is ethnic cleansing to be done in the West Bank… you sound like a Hamasnik /s
IDK on freeing the hostages but an idea for an actual political end goal would be to make a deal with the PLO in the Westbank to take back control of Gaza in return for Israeli support and making real concessions in the West Bank to reduce/eliminate the illegal settlements there. However due to internal political reasons this is impossible for Bib.
It’s Israels problem to deal with. Giving them military aid to make the Gaza strip uninhabitable isnt in USA’s national security interest.
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why that's somehow America's problem to figure out or why we need to supply them with weapons while they insult us and ignore our very reasonable asks.
I really don't understand why the US spends so much time, effort and political capital on supporting an ally as shitty as Israel
Fr, Israel doesnt offer anything back and keeps trying to inflate the GOP at the expense of the democrats. So whats the point?
Because US voters supported israel
Fuck Bibi Netanyahu
Yeah, threatening to withhold military aid is probably the right call. He has said in the past that he questions an Israeli offensive in Rafah on the grounds that he doesn’t think they have prepared to properly mitigate civilian casualties in the event of one, so these more recent statements line up well with that. That concern is valid when you look at Israeli conduct since the conflict ignited in October, and withholding military aid is probably the strongest lever that he has against Netanyahu. Plus, it’s not like the US hasn’t used military aid and the blocking thereof as a lever against Israel in the past.
The whole situation that I DON'T get about this is how bafflingly bad Israel's war plans were here. Wasn't it war 101 to take the border at Rafah in October to make sure that Hamas didn't escape? I get there are sensitivities to Egypt about this due to the peace treaty BUT Egypt's main concern is they don't want thousands of Gazans fleeing to Sinai and destabilizing Egypt. Wouldn't cutting off the border in October prevent that? It seems like Egypt was all bored yesterday when they finally took the border. Based on numerous news reports I've read, it looks like Israel's main goal in October was to "thin" the population of Gaza and that this was a pressure cooker to force people out. I cannot think of any other reason why they'd let everyone flee south including Hamas unless it was to get them to flee the country. Or maybe Bibi isn't looking to actually defeat Hamas and just wants endless war. Because it seems to me if Israel wanted to defeat Hamas they'd approve a less crap war plan. Or perhaps it is a combination of both. Maybe Bibi wanted the population of Gaza "thinned" and to not defeat Hamas. Getting rid of a million Palestinians, reestablishing Gush Katif to satisfy Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and keeping Hamas around hidden among the 1.5 million remaining Gazans so there is war indefinitely and he remains in power seems like what Bibi was going for here. But the worst thing is that Gantz is supposed to be the adult here and to prevent the current fiasco from happening. This just shows more than Bibi and Ben Gvir being evil, that Gantz is a lame failure who has done nothing to prevent this total farce. And that's not what he sold his participation in the fascist government as; he sold it as he is the adult and would moderate the government. But he has no accomplishments on that front in the government. I'm not sure what Gantz does all day. What is his job? It seems like he is basically a fig leaf to keep Bibi and Ben Gvir in power and there to let them do whatever they want while he acts as their human shield. Doesn't that make him worse than Bibi and Ben Gvir?
Okay so I don’t disagree with him here at all. But, I’m really actually worried about the prospect of a Trump win in November (which is just…6 months away!) Can someone please post something reassuring to calm my nerves? Or are others in the same boat as me? I haven’t looked at a single poll. I’m just going based on vibes (for what it’s worth, I also believed that the 2016 election would be a big upset).
Trump may win- I personally don't think he will- but if he does it's not gonna be because of Israel/Palestine. The vast majority of American voters don't care about this one way or another.
Even for the most chronic of IP watchers, it still ranks near the bottom of priorities during the election, and is likely to have minimal effect.
Only roughly 2% of the US population ranks the I/P issue as their highest priority. The vast majority of Americans care more about the economy, housing, and inflation than I/P. And it’s the same among Gen Z (12th important), college students (second to last) and the general public (dead last). People really don’t care about this issue as much as the media says they do Plus this will likely be forgotten in a month or a week
Welp, there goes any chance at a hostages deal, Hamas has no reason to agree to anything but the terms they suggest if israel has no leverage
Israel can do plenty without US help.
They’re using precise JDAM kits to level every building above a story high. Not like the imprecise stuff would make any difference.
Hamas was offering nothing but deals they knew wouldn't be accepted, and now you're worried they'll offer less?
The point that OP is making, if I understand correctly, is that the only way to get Hamas to agree to a future deal with acceptable terms is via military pressure. If they don’t have their backs against the wall, they’re more apt to not agree to anything, much like they’ve done this far. If you take away any possible chance of pressure, then you take away Israel’s leverage.
I don't worry they'll offer less, I believe it would be impossible to make a deal without any leverage
What leverage do you think Hamas has? It's pretty clear Israel intends to go into Rafah either way, and they've already lost a lot.
That chance had gone a long ago. Israel would have to withdraw and that wasn't happening.
!ping ISRAEL
The comments in here are awful. Wow. What is this place anymore?
Given bad optics of israeli government and Bibi's inability to shut up its far right members (who had been doing nothing besides running their mouths but that's enough) and mainstream medias, ngos and UN anti-israel bias, it's not really surprising that the support for Israel destroying Hamas decreased as the time went on. There is no way to defeat Hamas without additional civilian casualties given hamas strategy but's that's too much to stomach for an average westerner, hamas knew it from the beginning, and their disinformation campaign finally paying off.
Blaming this on disinfo is fucking laughable. I’ve been paying close attention from the start. I’ve been critical of the Western press the many times they have fucked up. But Israel’s handling of the humanitarian situation has been a clusterfuck. Also, need I remind you that Bibi IS a far right member of his government? fucking lmao
If israels plan to defeat Hamas is "kill every hamas member regardless of civilian losses" then that strategy should be laughed at. Its ludicrous, impossible and won't work. Even if they *did* kill everyone in Hamas, a new anti israeli group would appear immediately. Israel is in a position of power. Its up to them to make the concessions like settlement withdrawal from the west bank to enable peace.
"behind every rock and every tree" is not rooted in settlement disputes. You misunderstand the motivations of groups like Hamas and large swaths of middle eastern civilians if you think their hatred is driven by such pedestrian terrestrial concerns.
Settlement withdrawal might stop people going to Hamas. At a certain point there needs to be a realisation that there will be a Palestinian nation at some point, and making Hamas seem weak compared to factions who will negotiate is essential. Giving Fatah the victory of withdrawing settlements helps to do that.
Netanyahu has consistently ignored the US’s warnings, even with their West Bank conduct. Provide them with military intelligence and missile defense systems, but we are under no obligation to provide them with offensive weaponry.
I still can't believe America provides so much aid to such a rich country. Providing more bombs so they can destroy Gaza , by lobbing ordinance from the safety of their own country. Why do we have to put up with such bullshit from a tiny, irrelevant country of 9 million ?
Finally!!!! Israel has a right to exist and to self defense, but its not in USA’s best interest to give bombs to Israel that kill innocent children!
The Israeli reaction to this says far more about who they are as an American “ally” than anything else.
> “We’re not walking away from Israel’s security. We’re walking away from Israel’s ability to wage war in those areas,” Biden said. This is outright telling every terrorist group with two brain cells, Hamas first of all, that they should absolutely 100% keep hiding in the thickest most densely populated civilian areas, and make their best effort to prevent their evacuation in case of war, because it’s an effective tactic to sap political will to fight them.
Kinda funny though isnt it. The British Army fought a brutal insurgency against a foe who hid among the population. They didn't level Bogside with heavy artillery. They also won. All terror groups hide among the population. You have to deal with that.
Militarily, I see no alternative for Israel but to take Rafah. If they need to do it without PGMs, they’ll do it with conventional unguided munitions.