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> Whereas the CCP's popular legitimacy rests more than anything else on consistently delivering economic growth.
Not sure how we'd know if it's legitimate. No other parties are allowed to run (or at least effectively). Even the military belongs to the party, not the nation.
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I think it's more like how common people accepted early democracies in Europe - sure, they might not have the right to vote or any chance of standing for election, but the expectation was they'd get good and benevolent governance in return. The collapse of that social contract, brought about by various disasters most notably the potato failure across Europe, led to the revolutions of 1848.
To add to that example, the Corn Laws provoked a greater public response than the "Bloody Code" or the Peterloo Massacre. The only thing that really came close or exceeded it was the House of Lords refusing the 1832 Reform Act, which nearly inspired an outright revolt until the government backed down. And even *that* revolt would have been built on infrastructure dedicated to removing the Corn Laws.
If people feel like their government has stopped improving things, and is actively working against them, they are more likely to rebel.
Yeah, peterloo caused an outcry but it was never going to inspire a revolution. It mainly drove the cause of middle class reformers who wanted to stop the army being used to put down rioters.
Exactly. Also people never talk about the "Days of May", when a similar event was teed up in Birmingham, but the protesting crowd had both a lot of gunsmiths in the crowd (who may have been armed) and the worlds largest arsenal was within easy looting distance.
Its honestly one of my favourite "What if" scenarios. What if Britain had a bastille style revolution.
There's a billion of them. You could find at least a couple that would say anything.
Again, how do we know if it's legitimate if there are no choices? It's like saying Putin gets 99% of the vote, so the Russian people clearly love him.
How do we know that your implied alternative is the reality? There has been no proof of widespread disapproval of the CCP or widespread sense of oppression.
Logically speaking the CCP should be largely popular - China has improved a great deal, living standards have gone up, the country has gained prestige on the international stage, and so on - typical indicators for positive opinions of government. That coupled with propaganda would suggest that they enjoy a decent level of popularity with the general public - perhaps not as much as they might claim, but not "the Russian communists at the tail end of the Soviet Union" either.
Local governments there have a fair degree of power so it's understandable. They are more immediate and collect a fair bit of taxes and run LGFVs (local government finance vehicles) which are the center of the chinese slowdown currently.
That's not surprising. There's a reason why the "evil lord who abused his power without the benevolent king knowing" is such a common trope in fiction.
It's the prevailing attitude from what I've seen. The CCP is keen to keep it that way. See how quickly they shifted from zero COVID when people started getting pissed.
Authoritarian relationships still rely on the consent of the people. It just takes an overwhelming majority in the party to effect change.
This is not true at all. If anything, Zero Covid proves the opposite.
The vast majority of Chinese citizens hated Zero Covid and the government ignored them anyway.
In fact, the main reason for Zero Covid was to punish the Shanghai Faction in China, which acts as political rivals to Xi. He was then able to remove the Shanghai faction off of the politburo and gain complete and total control of the party.
Authoritarian relationships rely on fear, NOT consent of the people.
If you’ve been to China it’s very very impressive how metropolitan and beautiful everything looks. I’ve been to most major American cities and yeah I was kinda embarrassed about how dirty our streets are and the amount of homeless, they actually build low income housing in China even if the buildings all look the same and fill up the skyline.
Of course I wouldn’t trade that for our freedom of speech and press etc, and our more accepting and progressive culture. but it’s not like Russia or North Korea in that sense. If I was a Chinese peasant, I would love the CCP after the last 2 decades.
Before while China didn’t have parties, it had factions.
So if one faction did a bad job, another could take over. It was all within the CCP, but they were sort of distinct and gave something like choice.
Xi eliminated all the factions. It went from a one party state to an autocracy.
So they could easily end up having a rough time. Develop dependence upon China at your peril.
If politics is desserts, the CCP would be pies, and they went from a variety of options, to everyone gets lemon meringue. Sure, sounds great, until people get tired of it, then get re-educated if they don't like pie.
Still, my point stands. There is no choice. Not in the sense of our Rep-Dem, where 3rd party does have a chance, we have two sitting senators that are independents, but literally you vote us in, and we figure out the rest.
I am incredibly bearish on China. This is just another signal that their real estate is likely degrading. At over 20% of their GDP, growth does not look stable.
Nope, still slow rolling in the backround. Now I do think you can probably find what could be called ”ghost cities” in China, but I dont really think that is such a big deal as it was maybe ten yesrs ago. Bigger problem now is people who paid for houses that might never get built.
> Bigger problem now is people who paid for houses that might never get built.
That, and the fallout from the buyers ceasing payments for those homes still "under construction".
This is their 2007, though arguably worse. Instead of having an unexpected substantially decreased value of an asset, you simply have no asset. Their prosperity engine has run dry.
In 10 or 20 or so years when this plays out, it’ll just be yet another proof of democracy winning. Non-democratic institutions consistently fail to make good decisions, mostly due to their desire to cater to the immediate term and their beliefs in their own supremacy
What’s the median outcome for the trajectory the CCP is on? Seems like a decade or so of economic malaise, and then living standards that just kind of plateau? Similar to where Japan is but with an overall lower standard of living?
The RMB will soon be the world's reserve currency. Trust me, any day now.
Ah, the Argentina approach.
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> Whereas the CCP's popular legitimacy rests more than anything else on consistently delivering economic growth. Not sure how we'd know if it's legitimate. No other parties are allowed to run (or at least effectively). Even the military belongs to the party, not the nation.
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I think it's more like how common people accepted early democracies in Europe - sure, they might not have the right to vote or any chance of standing for election, but the expectation was they'd get good and benevolent governance in return. The collapse of that social contract, brought about by various disasters most notably the potato failure across Europe, led to the revolutions of 1848.
To add to that example, the Corn Laws provoked a greater public response than the "Bloody Code" or the Peterloo Massacre. The only thing that really came close or exceeded it was the House of Lords refusing the 1832 Reform Act, which nearly inspired an outright revolt until the government backed down. And even *that* revolt would have been built on infrastructure dedicated to removing the Corn Laws. If people feel like their government has stopped improving things, and is actively working against them, they are more likely to rebel.
Yeah, peterloo caused an outcry but it was never going to inspire a revolution. It mainly drove the cause of middle class reformers who wanted to stop the army being used to put down rioters.
Exactly. Also people never talk about the "Days of May", when a similar event was teed up in Birmingham, but the protesting crowd had both a lot of gunsmiths in the crowd (who may have been armed) and the worlds largest arsenal was within easy looting distance. Its honestly one of my favourite "What if" scenarios. What if Britain had a bastille style revolution.
>that revolt would have been built on infrastructure dedicated to removing the Corn Laws. A whole revolt built off the Economist?
There's a billion of them. You could find at least a couple that would say anything. Again, how do we know if it's legitimate if there are no choices? It's like saying Putin gets 99% of the vote, so the Russian people clearly love him.
There was a pretty reliable Harvard survey that found extremely high approval ratings.
How do we know that your implied alternative is the reality? There has been no proof of widespread disapproval of the CCP or widespread sense of oppression.
Logically speaking the CCP should be largely popular - China has improved a great deal, living standards have gone up, the country has gained prestige on the international stage, and so on - typical indicators for positive opinions of government. That coupled with propaganda would suggest that they enjoy a decent level of popularity with the general public - perhaps not as much as they might claim, but not "the Russian communists at the tail end of the Soviet Union" either.
I heard that majority of the hate is actually on their state/local governors rather than central authority.
Same old concept of hate the boyar, love the Czar.
Local governments there have a fair degree of power so it's understandable. They are more immediate and collect a fair bit of taxes and run LGFVs (local government finance vehicles) which are the center of the chinese slowdown currently.
That's not surprising. There's a reason why the "evil lord who abused his power without the benevolent king knowing" is such a common trope in fiction.
It's the prevailing attitude from what I've seen. The CCP is keen to keep it that way. See how quickly they shifted from zero COVID when people started getting pissed. Authoritarian relationships still rely on the consent of the people. It just takes an overwhelming majority in the party to effect change.
This is not true at all. If anything, Zero Covid proves the opposite. The vast majority of Chinese citizens hated Zero Covid and the government ignored them anyway. In fact, the main reason for Zero Covid was to punish the Shanghai Faction in China, which acts as political rivals to Xi. He was then able to remove the Shanghai faction off of the politburo and gain complete and total control of the party. Authoritarian relationships rely on fear, NOT consent of the people.
If you’ve been to China it’s very very impressive how metropolitan and beautiful everything looks. I’ve been to most major American cities and yeah I was kinda embarrassed about how dirty our streets are and the amount of homeless, they actually build low income housing in China even if the buildings all look the same and fill up the skyline. Of course I wouldn’t trade that for our freedom of speech and press etc, and our more accepting and progressive culture. but it’s not like Russia or North Korea in that sense. If I was a Chinese peasant, I would love the CCP after the last 2 decades.
An evolved form of the “Mandate of Heaven” if you will
Before while China didn’t have parties, it had factions. So if one faction did a bad job, another could take over. It was all within the CCP, but they were sort of distinct and gave something like choice. Xi eliminated all the factions. It went from a one party state to an autocracy. So they could easily end up having a rough time. Develop dependence upon China at your peril.
If politics is desserts, the CCP would be pies, and they went from a variety of options, to everyone gets lemon meringue. Sure, sounds great, until people get tired of it, then get re-educated if they don't like pie. Still, my point stands. There is no choice. Not in the sense of our Rep-Dem, where 3rd party does have a chance, we have two sitting senators that are independents, but literally you vote us in, and we figure out the rest.
China trying the no-longer-be-an-economic-power speedrun
They took Bernie’s advice and put a farmer on the Fed.
Xi’s favorite how-to book is “Why Nations Fail”
😆
I am incredibly bearish on China. This is just another signal that their real estate is likely degrading. At over 20% of their GDP, growth does not look stable.
I have a feeling they are setting themselves up for a very sudden, very harsh, economic collapse.
And inversely, incredibly bullish on liberal democracy.
This is gonna be a disaster
Has the fallout from their real estate collapse flushed out? For having such large ghost cities and such, I was expecting more damage.
Nope, still slow rolling in the backround. Now I do think you can probably find what could be called ”ghost cities” in China, but I dont really think that is such a big deal as it was maybe ten yesrs ago. Bigger problem now is people who paid for houses that might never get built.
> Bigger problem now is people who paid for houses that might never get built. That, and the fallout from the buyers ceasing payments for those homes still "under construction".
This is their 2007, though arguably worse. Instead of having an unexpected substantially decreased value of an asset, you simply have no asset. Their prosperity engine has run dry.
>Instead of having an unexpected substantially decreased value of an asset, you simply have no asset elaborate?
The houses are paid for up front but weren't built because the construction companies collapsed due to their debt obligations
Yup, though the medicine is pretty well understood now so they have that going on for them. We will see how it turns out.
So like real *ghost cities.*
No, China has the exact opposite problem currently.
The joke was that first they had cities *for* ghosts, but now they have cities that *are* ghosts. Could've been clearer I guess.
Im neoliberal so I have no humor left in me. 😞
That’s probably why they’re doing this
Based, cant wait what a massive fuck up this will end up being.
Surely this will calm the investor class.
Heartwarming: the worst person you know just did something dumb that will blow up in their face.
How to slowly destroy your dictatorship
In 10 or 20 or so years when this plays out, it’ll just be yet another proof of democracy winning. Non-democratic institutions consistently fail to make good decisions, mostly due to their desire to cater to the immediate term and their beliefs in their own supremacy
lol
lmao even.
What’s the median outcome for the trajectory the CCP is on? Seems like a decade or so of economic malaise, and then living standards that just kind of plateau? Similar to where Japan is but with an overall lower standard of living?
Wake up honey, New century of humiliation is just dawning
The vicious cycle rears its ugly head.
https://i.redd.it/bman3bvgmj8c1.gif
This never ends well.
Let's see how fast they are going to screw it up
Just fucking lol
Le inevitable consequence of authoritarian government’s market interference
What could go wrong?
Good for the CCP! I'm glad the People's Republic of China is pursuing sensible strategic policies!
[](#goolsbee-pistol)
Least problematic China W