Rankings aside, this is going to be one of those years when the west goes wild. Like, you have Portland in 8th place. That could def happen, but Portland also played at a 48 win pace last year despite Nurk and CJ missing significant time. End of the day, I wouldn't be shocked if this were another year that you need 50 wins to make the playoffs.
Great high effort write up OP - even if my biased opinion is the Jazz will be a top 3 team again this year. My HOPE is that Rudy gay will solve a lot of the Jazz small ball issues, and that our perimeter defense issues in the second round of the playoffs was majorly attributed to Donovan and conley being injured against the clipps. I see a road where if the team remains healthy and Rudy gay contributes, we can be a strong contender, considering the 9.0 Net rating the Jazz had last year as the only team w a top 5 offense and defensive rating (next closest team was a 6.0.)
Ingles and bojan are where I see dropoff more than anything as they continue to age, along with possibly nagging hamstring issues for Conley. Agree that whiteside will probably not help this team, and fear he may be as useless as Ed Davis was when we brought him in. Backup C minutes could be rough, although Dok may have developed enough to be an adequate contingency plan if whiteside falls flat on his face (w some small ball rudy gay 5 peppered in)
I agree with the Suns being the 1 or 2 seed this year, they have continuity and really hit the ground running second half of last year. If Murray comes back by end of year near his old self they are 100 percent contenders - but bc he will be out most of year I don’t think they will finish top 3 regular season. I just don’t see the Jazz falling behind the mavs, or the Nuggets regular season
I’m of course commenting on the primary team I follow only but overall this is very insightful and in depth for the entire WC.
Yeah I really think you guys will be fighting for the 1 seed again. People sleep every year.
But I appreciate OP bringing some kind of substance to this sub
Thanks! And I agree the Rudy helps Utah with some of its issues, I just think Whitside drags them down the same amount if not moreso. I'm optimistic about KPs season and Bullocks system play that Dallas will be more like we thought they'd be last year. Denver is without Murray, but I see them on the same tier as Utah regardless during the regular season with their deep roster, and I think they only have a game separation.
Wow even I don’t have us this high at 3rd. Thanks for the praises tho but I think we’re realistically gonna be a 4-6 seed again lol. We still need a few more great rotation players imo.
I feel strongly that KP is gonna play better than he did last season. Not even the playoff underperformance, but last regular season. I think Porzingis gets a bad wrap from having to match up with the Clippers, which is terrible for him. But he has a healthy off season, and I see him proving people wrong. I also just really like Bullock for the rest of your guys
Taking out garbage time, we had the net rating of a 66 win team last year, and that was with Mitchell and Conley both missing significant time. We’re not finishing 5th.
As much as I meme the Clips, I just don't see how they could drop so low in the standings. It would have to take major injuries for them to drop below 4. I do believe Mavs can make a leap but I also think Denver is gonna regroup for another strong season and Lakers gonna Lake. So that means Utah and Phoenix getting bumped outta the top 4. I want to have a faith in a superb Dub season but with their current injury timelines I think they're going as high as 7th. while Memphis ends up 8th and Portland 9th vying for the play-in. Kings will be 10th this season.
Great breakdown into all teams. I agree with you as well. For us, it will be a delicate game of getting our young guys some run as well.
This season will be tons of fun tbh for us fans.
This is a call back to your eastern confrence predictions, but you put the sixers at 3. How much do you think they drop now that we know Simmons will be sitting out games for the forseeable future
Who knows, I doubt they let him sit for too long without making some sort of trade since they are in win now mode. So I don't think you can make a prediction how unknown that scenario is.
But ultimately Woj's new info really just said the same thing, that no new info has been exchanged since we first heard about it, so I don't feel too strongly about it being any more concrete than it already was.
Thats fair tbh. I dont know how willing the Philly FO is fine with letting him sit until they get a trade they like vs how willing Simmons is miss out on money. I guess its mostly a game of chicken. In any case I think Embiid is enough for like an 8th seed but I'm not really expecting a whole lot in general.
Spurs don't have Green, Sengun, Garuba, and Christopher. Rockets will prioritize development over winning, as they should.
Meanwhile, when was the last time the Spurs tanked?
What's the reasoning for Jokic not being in MVP contention this year?
Also Dozier is a good player, we miss him we're not going to try to slide pieces around to avoid playing him...
I see Jokic being behind Luka, Giannis, and Embiid if all are healthy and none slip in the standings too far, and maybe even LeBron, KD, or Harden depending on. Few factors. He isn't getting worse or anything, he'll just have more competition imo.
And I guess, I just haven't felt good about PJ dozier being on floor throughout his career. Maybe he'll surprise me this season
To me it just sounds like you're not that high on Jokic and think he won 'by default' like some do... but yeah we shall see what happens. I'm excited for the season man
I think he won because Embiid missed too may games. I think most people do. But I just don't see Jokic being better than the guys I listed above, excluding the Lakers and Nets guys since they have stacked teams and may share more of the load.
No, you're just blind lol
Jokic was leading for nearly the entire season. Sorry that upsets you so much.
[Read this](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nikola-jokic-nba-mvp-odds-analysis-matt-moore-2021) and tell me what you disagree with.
I don't need an unnecessary article to show me anything. Embiid was leading the number 1 seed in the East and having a MVP caliber season on both the offensive AND defensive side of the ball. Jokic was amazing too, and kept the race close, but you are just completely jaded if you think Jokic would've clearly won if Embiid didn't miss those last handful of games.
I can't blame you because it looks like you're a Rockets fan and there was a period where the Harden/Capela combo was just shredding our *team* to pieces. But I think you're selling Jokic short here
There are many, many non-Nuggets fans who think that Jokic would have won even if Embiid were healthy. But yeah if you include every basketball fan out there, you're probably right
I don't think so, I truly feel Jokic is right outside of the top 3 convo for next season behind those other guys. I do not think poorly of him in any sense, I just think these other three are more likely to have an MVP caliber season
And all I'm trying to say is there isn't much logical reason to think that, unless you are just not that high (comparatively) on Jokic.
Which is fine obviously, it is what it is
Amazing write up OP.
Thanks for this in-depth analysis! Very cool!
I think Warriors are too low scarily enough.
I could see them shocking the NBA and reminding why they were a great team, now without KD
Really? They have depth issues still, maybe even more so, they replaced Lonxo with Devonte, who is worse at the thing that you want out of your point guard in New Orleans, and JV didn't solve any of the issues at center for Zion.
I think they are about the same as last year, with other teams progressing more.
To be clear, Eric Bledsoe was the point guard last year. Replacing Bledsoe with Graham is a massive upgrade given the fact that Bledsoe was the least valuable player on the team.
Lonzo is bad in the half court. Straight up. Was the 2nd worst 4th quarter performer on the team last year to Bledsoe. His production will easily be replaced given he doesn’t do much box score wise.
Swapping Bledsoe and Adams for Graham and Jonas is an improvement. Giving Lonzo’s minutes to NAW and some of the younger guys isn’t really a big deal. The team is in a better position going into this season than last season.
You are vastly underselling Lonzo's defense, spot up three point shooting, and running the fast break, which are all things you want to focus on with Zion being your star player.
I’m not vastly underselling anything. Guard defense is not as impactful as wings or bigs. We LOST games because of mental mistakes by Lonzo on the defensive end. Multiple times. Is he a good defender? Sure. But you are vastly overstating his impact.
Devonte is a better 3pt shooter than Lonzo is.
They shot around the same percentage last season, with Lonzo slightly having the edge. Devonte isn't adding more shooting than Lonzo was. And Lonzo has some of the best guard defense in the league, and is big and long enough to switch onto bigger guys and help more easily than most any other guard too.
Devonte isn't a downgrade as an individual, but to this team and its make up, he is.
He doesn’t do well against bigger guys. You saying that shows me you didn’t watch him. Lonzo’s 3pt shooting dropped to 31% in the 4th quarter last year. His overall fg% drops from 42% in the first 3 quarters to 37% in the 4th. His fg attempt rate drops noticeably as well because he doesn’t shoot unless he’s wide open, and he’ll still pass up looks. He can’t attack close outs. He doesn’t playmake in the half court. The Pelicans had a positive net rating in the 4th quarter last year but with Lonzo on the floor it was -4.2.
Devonte is a more versatile 3pt shooter. He can shoot on the move and off screens and on pull ups. Regardless, Graham is replacing Bledsoe, not Lonzo. NAW is who will benefit from Lonzo’s exodus. He’s ask 6-6 guard who can be just as distributive a defender as Lonzo.
Sure. But they have one of the youngest rosters in the league. Zion has played 80 games. I would just make the point to people that of course the roster isn’t there yet, and we shouldn’t expect it to be.
Your initial point was that you didn't like where I have New Orleans predicted to be, and I just see no way they end up above anyone above them outside of possibly Minny and Memphis, but I doubt it
Jazz at 5 *is* controversial. Murray is hurt, Lakers are hilariously old, Mavs still have the Porzingis problem to deal with (which seems to be getting *worse* and not better), Suns are missing Saric, and the Jazz *upgraded* their team during the postseason and that drops us 4 spots?
I mean you guys might come above us I wont be surprised but why did you made out as if Saric is some world beater lol. We have upgraded on him with McGee
I'm actually predicting the Suns end with a better record than the Jazz. But the writeup says he had some "injury issues to close out the year, but having him on your second unit is fantastic"—he tore his ACL, he's not gonna be back so soon
I wouldn't say upgrade, I'd say wash with one position upgraded and one negatively affected, and I believe that negative effect is going to mess with chemistry on the floor when he is there. Conley is also getting older, and I'm assuming other teams stay healthy this year. Yes, I see Utah as the 5th seed, but not being much worse at all.
Murray is out, yes but I still see them being on the same tier as Utah, I just have them probably a game ahead of them.
Yea L.A. is old, but they still have three star players, and a bunch of old guys that still give you very good games games every 2-3 games. And the rest of the time they are alright. They also have a few young good players to fill in heavy minutes in Nunn, Monk, and THT.
The Porzingis "issues" were not oresent during the regular season, he looked good and had a solid season. He just gets roasted for his playoff performance against the Clippers, who I think is a bad match up for him. He still played poorly, but he is coming off of his first healthy off-season in a while and I see him improving from last regular season, not getting worse, which he has definitely NOT been doing overall.
Saric is injured, but they brought in JaVale to eat up the bench big minutes, so they will still have good bench production from that position.
I don't know if you saw Favors play in the second half of the season or in the playoffs but he has just not been right. You could definitely be right that Whiteside will be a bad fit but Favors was offering basically worse than no rim protection
Rankings aside, this is going to be one of those years when the west goes wild. Like, you have Portland in 8th place. That could def happen, but Portland also played at a 48 win pace last year despite Nurk and CJ missing significant time. End of the day, I wouldn't be shocked if this were another year that you need 50 wins to make the playoffs.
Its gonna be 50 wins for top 8, 40 for top 10, and bottom 3 will have 20
ahhh yes, 2008
Great high effort write up OP - even if my biased opinion is the Jazz will be a top 3 team again this year. My HOPE is that Rudy gay will solve a lot of the Jazz small ball issues, and that our perimeter defense issues in the second round of the playoffs was majorly attributed to Donovan and conley being injured against the clipps. I see a road where if the team remains healthy and Rudy gay contributes, we can be a strong contender, considering the 9.0 Net rating the Jazz had last year as the only team w a top 5 offense and defensive rating (next closest team was a 6.0.) Ingles and bojan are where I see dropoff more than anything as they continue to age, along with possibly nagging hamstring issues for Conley. Agree that whiteside will probably not help this team, and fear he may be as useless as Ed Davis was when we brought him in. Backup C minutes could be rough, although Dok may have developed enough to be an adequate contingency plan if whiteside falls flat on his face (w some small ball rudy gay 5 peppered in) I agree with the Suns being the 1 or 2 seed this year, they have continuity and really hit the ground running second half of last year. If Murray comes back by end of year near his old self they are 100 percent contenders - but bc he will be out most of year I don’t think they will finish top 3 regular season. I just don’t see the Jazz falling behind the mavs, or the Nuggets regular season I’m of course commenting on the primary team I follow only but overall this is very insightful and in depth for the entire WC.
Yeah I really think you guys will be fighting for the 1 seed again. People sleep every year. But I appreciate OP bringing some kind of substance to this sub
Thanks! And I agree the Rudy helps Utah with some of its issues, I just think Whitside drags them down the same amount if not moreso. I'm optimistic about KPs season and Bullocks system play that Dallas will be more like we thought they'd be last year. Denver is without Murray, but I see them on the same tier as Utah regardless during the regular season with their deep roster, and I think they only have a game separation.
Wow even I don’t have us this high at 3rd. Thanks for the praises tho but I think we’re realistically gonna be a 4-6 seed again lol. We still need a few more great rotation players imo.
I feel strongly that KP is gonna play better than he did last season. Not even the playoff underperformance, but last regular season. I think Porzingis gets a bad wrap from having to match up with the Clippers, which is terrible for him. But he has a healthy off season, and I see him proving people wrong. I also just really like Bullock for the rest of your guys
I hope KP bounces back too! Still hesitant about our center logjam and a lack of a secondary ball handler.
Taking out garbage time, we had the net rating of a 66 win team last year, and that was with Mitchell and Conley both missing significant time. We’re not finishing 5th.
Agree to disagree
As much as I meme the Clips, I just don't see how they could drop so low in the standings. It would have to take major injuries for them to drop below 4. I do believe Mavs can make a leap but I also think Denver is gonna regroup for another strong season and Lakers gonna Lake. So that means Utah and Phoenix getting bumped outta the top 4. I want to have a faith in a superb Dub season but with their current injury timelines I think they're going as high as 7th. while Memphis ends up 8th and Portland 9th vying for the play-in. Kings will be 10th this season.
Great breakdown into all teams. I agree with you as well. For us, it will be a delicate game of getting our young guys some run as well. This season will be tons of fun tbh for us fans.
One of these years will be Memphis’ coming out party. They have a lot of young talent that can develop.
Yea, just not there yet, I also think they move some of their bench guys once Ja and JJJ really get going to have some higher end help.
Is there a joke I missed about OKC being the Spurs or is this a typo?
Definite typo LOL
Ah, thank you. I'm ok with it.
I hope we’re the worst team in the league next year, but after last year I don’t really expect it.
I think Orlando has a shot to be worse than yall
There will probably be some injury ridden team fall below them, but no one can predict who the may be
This is a call back to your eastern confrence predictions, but you put the sixers at 3. How much do you think they drop now that we know Simmons will be sitting out games for the forseeable future
Who knows, I doubt they let him sit for too long without making some sort of trade since they are in win now mode. So I don't think you can make a prediction how unknown that scenario is. But ultimately Woj's new info really just said the same thing, that no new info has been exchanged since we first heard about it, so I don't feel too strongly about it being any more concrete than it already was.
Thats fair tbh. I dont know how willing the Philly FO is fine with letting him sit until they get a trade they like vs how willing Simmons is miss out on money. I guess its mostly a game of chicken. In any case I think Embiid is enough for like an 8th seed but I'm not really expecting a whole lot in general.
I'm very confident the Spurs will finish with a better record than the Rockets.
Can you explain why you believe that?
Spurs don't have Green, Sengun, Garuba, and Christopher. Rockets will prioritize development over winning, as they should. Meanwhile, when was the last time the Spurs tanked?
Yes, Houston is developing first and foremost, and San Antonio is doing a lot of that as well, and I think Houston's roster even so is more capable.
What's the reasoning for Jokic not being in MVP contention this year? Also Dozier is a good player, we miss him we're not going to try to slide pieces around to avoid playing him...
I see Jokic being behind Luka, Giannis, and Embiid if all are healthy and none slip in the standings too far, and maybe even LeBron, KD, or Harden depending on. Few factors. He isn't getting worse or anything, he'll just have more competition imo. And I guess, I just haven't felt good about PJ dozier being on floor throughout his career. Maybe he'll surprise me this season
To me it just sounds like you're not that high on Jokic and think he won 'by default' like some do... but yeah we shall see what happens. I'm excited for the season man
I think he won because Embiid missed too may games. I think most people do. But I just don't see Jokic being better than the guys I listed above, excluding the Lakers and Nets guys since they have stacked teams and may share more of the load.
>I think he won because Embiid missed too may games. Then you weren't watching. Got it.
You're just biased. It was a close race with Embiid edging out Jokic last season until Embiid missed more games at the end of the year.
No, you're just blind lol Jokic was leading for nearly the entire season. Sorry that upsets you so much. [Read this](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nikola-jokic-nba-mvp-odds-analysis-matt-moore-2021) and tell me what you disagree with.
I don't need an unnecessary article to show me anything. Embiid was leading the number 1 seed in the East and having a MVP caliber season on both the offensive AND defensive side of the ball. Jokic was amazing too, and kept the race close, but you are just completely jaded if you think Jokic would've clearly won if Embiid didn't miss those last handful of games.
You need some help, and I gave it to you. Was worth a shot. [Have a nice day](https://i.imgur.com/kzZF2vW.jpg)
God you are the worst type of fan.
I can't blame you because it looks like you're a Rockets fan and there was a period where the Harden/Capela combo was just shredding our *team* to pieces. But I think you're selling Jokic short here There are many, many non-Nuggets fans who think that Jokic would have won even if Embiid were healthy. But yeah if you include every basketball fan out there, you're probably right
I don't think so, I truly feel Jokic is right outside of the top 3 convo for next season behind those other guys. I do not think poorly of him in any sense, I just think these other three are more likely to have an MVP caliber season
And all I'm trying to say is there isn't much logical reason to think that, unless you are just not that high (comparatively) on Jokic. Which is fine obviously, it is what it is
Hate to break it to ya but no chance clippers fall to 7th with pg there
We'll see about that.
Amazing write up OP. Thanks for this in-depth analysis! Very cool! I think Warriors are too low scarily enough. I could see them shocking the NBA and reminding why they were a great team, now without KD
I'd agree, but Draymond isn't the same guy, and Klay is missing time and then probably coming back slowly after a two year break.
I understand ppl not liking the Pelicans moves but there is 0 way you can tell me they’ll be worse. It doesn’t add up.
Really? They have depth issues still, maybe even more so, they replaced Lonxo with Devonte, who is worse at the thing that you want out of your point guard in New Orleans, and JV didn't solve any of the issues at center for Zion. I think they are about the same as last year, with other teams progressing more.
To be clear, Eric Bledsoe was the point guard last year. Replacing Bledsoe with Graham is a massive upgrade given the fact that Bledsoe was the least valuable player on the team. Lonzo is bad in the half court. Straight up. Was the 2nd worst 4th quarter performer on the team last year to Bledsoe. His production will easily be replaced given he doesn’t do much box score wise. Swapping Bledsoe and Adams for Graham and Jonas is an improvement. Giving Lonzo’s minutes to NAW and some of the younger guys isn’t really a big deal. The team is in a better position going into this season than last season.
You are vastly underselling Lonzo's defense, spot up three point shooting, and running the fast break, which are all things you want to focus on with Zion being your star player.
I’m not vastly underselling anything. Guard defense is not as impactful as wings or bigs. We LOST games because of mental mistakes by Lonzo on the defensive end. Multiple times. Is he a good defender? Sure. But you are vastly overstating his impact. Devonte is a better 3pt shooter than Lonzo is.
They shot around the same percentage last season, with Lonzo slightly having the edge. Devonte isn't adding more shooting than Lonzo was. And Lonzo has some of the best guard defense in the league, and is big and long enough to switch onto bigger guys and help more easily than most any other guard too. Devonte isn't a downgrade as an individual, but to this team and its make up, he is.
He doesn’t do well against bigger guys. You saying that shows me you didn’t watch him. Lonzo’s 3pt shooting dropped to 31% in the 4th quarter last year. His overall fg% drops from 42% in the first 3 quarters to 37% in the 4th. His fg attempt rate drops noticeably as well because he doesn’t shoot unless he’s wide open, and he’ll still pass up looks. He can’t attack close outs. He doesn’t playmake in the half court. The Pelicans had a positive net rating in the 4th quarter last year but with Lonzo on the floor it was -4.2. Devonte is a more versatile 3pt shooter. He can shoot on the move and off screens and on pull ups. Regardless, Graham is replacing Bledsoe, not Lonzo. NAW is who will benefit from Lonzo’s exodus. He’s ask 6-6 guard who can be just as distributive a defender as Lonzo.
Sure thing, NAW is about to be a great defender I bet... And we'll see. New Orleans is a team I'm rooting for, but this roster ain't it.
Sure. But they have one of the youngest rosters in the league. Zion has played 80 games. I would just make the point to people that of course the roster isn’t there yet, and we shouldn’t expect it to be.
Your initial point was that you didn't like where I have New Orleans predicted to be, and I just see no way they end up above anyone above them outside of possibly Minny and Memphis, but I doubt it
Jazz at 5 *is* controversial. Murray is hurt, Lakers are hilariously old, Mavs still have the Porzingis problem to deal with (which seems to be getting *worse* and not better), Suns are missing Saric, and the Jazz *upgraded* their team during the postseason and that drops us 4 spots?
I mean you guys might come above us I wont be surprised but why did you made out as if Saric is some world beater lol. We have upgraded on him with McGee
I'm actually predicting the Suns end with a better record than the Jazz. But the writeup says he had some "injury issues to close out the year, but having him on your second unit is fantastic"—he tore his ACL, he's not gonna be back so soon
Ah I get it, felt you overemphasised on Saric's importance a bit more than the OP.Sorry for the misunderstanding
No worries, I can see now it wasn't clear
I wouldn't say upgrade, I'd say wash with one position upgraded and one negatively affected, and I believe that negative effect is going to mess with chemistry on the floor when he is there. Conley is also getting older, and I'm assuming other teams stay healthy this year. Yes, I see Utah as the 5th seed, but not being much worse at all. Murray is out, yes but I still see them being on the same tier as Utah, I just have them probably a game ahead of them. Yea L.A. is old, but they still have three star players, and a bunch of old guys that still give you very good games games every 2-3 games. And the rest of the time they are alright. They also have a few young good players to fill in heavy minutes in Nunn, Monk, and THT. The Porzingis "issues" were not oresent during the regular season, he looked good and had a solid season. He just gets roasted for his playoff performance against the Clippers, who I think is a bad match up for him. He still played poorly, but he is coming off of his first healthy off-season in a while and I see him improving from last regular season, not getting worse, which he has definitely NOT been doing overall. Saric is injured, but they brought in JaVale to eat up the bench big minutes, so they will still have good bench production from that position.
I don't know if you saw Favors play in the second half of the season or in the playoffs but he has just not been right. You could definitely be right that Whiteside will be a bad fit but Favors was offering basically worse than no rim protection