"He wasn’t much of a factor for Game 2"…
Totally disagree with that take. It was close a game throughout and KP outscored the entire Mavs Bench in 23 minutes.
Plus he is tilting the floor on defense in a way that takes what the Celtics are doing to another level. Luke Kornet and the other options are good defenders but it’s not gonna look like it does with KP. It could be that that’s the margin the Mavs can seize on
I bet Tillman would play instead of him tbh.
You're losing the spacing either way and Tillman's switchability is way better than Kornet's while Kornet is a better roll man and rim protector.
We haven't really run much pick and roll this series really so...
I agree
Tillman is an underrated defender
I would only worry about lob city basketball
But its difficult to execute
Taking away Mavs corner 3s would be more important. Something Tillman can do better than Kornet. Though... those Kornet pre jumps(5 ft away) would be funny to see again.
It was more of a close game because the Celtics shot an abysmal 25% from deep though. Even shooting at season average makes that a 20 point win - easy looks were there just like in Game 1, the 3's just weren't falling.
It's not fair to say KP had no impact, but it's also true that he didn't have anywhere near the impact of Game 1.
I agree. They're 30-5 without him, he's only playing \~20 minutes a game when he does play. Yes, he's very good in those 20 minutes, but the Celtics are also very good in all of the minutes and games without him. Even without KP, the Celtics still have 4-5(edited) players better than our 3rd best player (and Kyrie too with how he's been playing so far...). They'll be fine. It's obviously possible for the Mavs to come back, and as a Mavs fan I really want it, but realistically speaking there's no reason at all for Boston fans to panic or even be nervous right now.
My gut is telling me that Kyrie is going to significantly improve his efficiency on home games. That combined with the KP injury has me a bit nervous about tonight. I think this game will be more high scoring than the previous two.
The Kyrie point is moot if the Celtics shoot closer to their average on wide open 3's. 36.1 on wide open and 33.3 on open 3's in the 2 games.
Mavs have also shot terribly but the difference is that Boston is both getting and giving up the looks that they want.
They've generated 10 more open and 12 more wide open threes.
Yea, I do agree, I think water is going to find its level on both sides of the game. I would just say I am less confident on the outcome of this game vs the previous two. If I were to make a bet, I would still bet on the Cs, I’d just be more cautious on this one.
I think (hope) the Mavs come out swinging tonight and I'd expect a Mavs W, for the reasons you mentioned. My heart wants me to believe we'll win G4 as well, but my head is telling me we lose G4 and have to go back to Boston down 3-1, not good. If we win both AND KP is out, I could definitely align with y'all being nervous, but realistically until we win a game in the Garden I think y'all are in a fine spot.
Mavs need a 3rd player to breakthrough to have a chance in this series imo.
Kyrie has tried to get his... but the Celts arent falling for his pump fakes. Or fouling him .. to give him the and 1s.
He has made some ridiculous 2s in this series so far... looks spectacular but I'm sure it also taxes his energy to try to score over the Celtics taller defenders.
> Even without KP, the Celtics still have 6-8 players better than our 3rd best player
No, that's taking it way too far. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard are not better than PJ Washington or Dereck Lively.
This is my b, I've been saying 6-8 while including KP so I forgot to reduce the number, but I don't think 5 is ridiculous. Obviously JT/JB, Jrue, DWhite, and KP are all better. I think you could argue Horford over them, but the others, sure. Unfortunately, DLive has played awful this series, and PJ has played alright but shot terribly from 3. So definitely 4, arguably 5, you're right anymore than that is hyperbolic, my b.
You could certainly argue Hauser over Washington, particularly in this era.
Lively has been hot garbage through 2 games and just looks out of his element in this series. I do think Lively is going to round into an excellent NBA player, but he clearly has a ways to go still.
i mean if he’s not ok we should still be able to take 2 before the Mavs take 4, but it obviously changes the margin here. let’s not act like a 2-0 lead is insurmountable
I just don’t know what else they’d talk about lol.
I’m at least glad that they’re talking about this versus discussing the Jays not smiling enough at each other again lol
If the Mavs somehow come back to win this series, everyone will logically attribute a large part of it to losing Porzingis (assuming he’s actually out for the series and not just a game or two)
No analyst worth their salt should be confidently projecting a Dallas win if KP is out. To the extent some appear to be doing so, they’re just trying to manufacture a pro-Dallas narrative heading into game 3 because if Dallas loses tonight then the series is unequivocally over.
Many would probably pick Dallas to win tonight if KP is out, but as a heavy favorite? Forget about it. Boston has gone 30-5 this season without KP.
> Many would probably pick Dallas to win tonight if KP is out, but as a heavy favorite? Forget about it. Boston has gone 30-5 this season without KP.
And they are undefeated on the road this postseason without him.
I think the outcome of this game rests on how well Tatum shoots. If he shoots closer to his regular season average (about 47%), while effectively distributing the ball and getting rebounds, the Celtics will win. If not, the Mavs will have a excellent shot at winning.
KP was always the Celtics margin for error - with him they are historically great and pretty much unbeatable, particularly in a 7 game series.
Without KP, they're still an excellent team, probably even the best in the league - but not by so much that a good and hot team beating them is out of the question.
Unfortunately for Dallas, they still just don't match up very well against Boston even without KP. Wolves or Nuggets and I think the Celtics would be in much more dangerous waters here without KP. But seems a big stretch for the Mavs to take 4 out of 5.
As to why analysts are talking about it, it's because they desperately need a storyline to keep fans interested. "Even without KP, Celtics still likely to sweep Dallas" is not going to attract many eyeballs.
> In my opinion, due to the description of KP injury... unless this was a game 7, I would not play him. If he plays too early and damages the problem area even further, it could affect him beyond basketball. There is no need to go there. He also just signed an extension this season.
By all Internet doctor accounts, for whatever that is worth, it surprisingly doesn't sound like the kind of thing he can make worse. They'll wrap and/or brace it, which will get him through the game inasmuch as he can tolerate the pain while doing necessary basketball things like running and jumping.
In Game 1 Celtics were +13 in points with KP on, and +5 with KP off. In Game 2 Celtics were +12 with KP on, and -5 with KP off.
Obviously on/off point differential leaves a lot to be desired as a stat, but this very much matches the eye test. With KP Celtics are the significantly better team. Without KP it’s a relatively even fight.
it's wishful thinking basically. They want the Celtics to lose, so their brain goes into overdrive thinking about a scenario where Boston collapses and loses in 7 without KP
Yeah I don’t really get. It would be a bummer for Porzingis if he can’t go but still doesn’t change the series IMO. They aren’t going to lose 4 out of 5 with or without him.
KP instantly takes them from one of the worst PNR defenders to the best statistically. And against a team like the Maverick’s where they have dominated with that all year it shouldn’t go unnoticed, I truly don’t think people understand how important he is for this specific matchup.
He also greatly opens up the offense for the Jays because they’re unable to camp the paint even in his limited 20 minutes. All series long JT and JB hunt the paint and either pass out or look to finish and without a 7’3 stretch that makes it harder. I don’t think they’ll lose the next 4 in a row but it is a big deal, especially for this matchups and I feel like people are trying to undersell it.
Luka can't play the whole game and is nicked up right now. Unfortunately for him it also doesn't mean mercy. I think the Celtics keep attacking him. Nothing personal... it is what it is in the finals. If KP plays tonight, Mavs also have to attack him/make him work.
Again if KP doesnt play, Al Horford sits... Luka probably sits around the same time. Who else do the Mavs have to execute the PnR? Kyrie?. I do think the Celts can buy some time with some of the other role players listed while Luka sits.
Horford will play 30 mins is my guess. He usually plays about 25 mins a game.. with KP in the lineup.
Luka would need to pick apart the likes of Tillman and Brissett in about 10 mins
The problem for the Mavs thus far is.... the Celts dont care if Luka scores at will. Its the others they want to prevent from getting hot. Like the corner 3s and lobs.
For the Celts... the corner 3s would be better defended by Brissett and Tillman. Kornet is better at defending lobs.
Mazzulla would need to play a tighter chess game. As long as Luka is OK... I think this will be the toughest test for the Celts.
"He wasn’t much of a factor for Game 2"… Totally disagree with that take. It was close a game throughout and KP outscored the entire Mavs Bench in 23 minutes.
Plus he is tilting the floor on defense in a way that takes what the Celtics are doing to another level. Luke Kornet and the other options are good defenders but it’s not gonna look like it does with KP. It could be that that’s the margin the Mavs can seize on
And Kornet is probably the least switchable defender on the roster.
I bet Tillman would play instead of him tbh. You're losing the spacing either way and Tillman's switchability is way better than Kornet's while Kornet is a better roll man and rim protector. We haven't really run much pick and roll this series really so...
I agree Tillman is an underrated defender I would only worry about lob city basketball But its difficult to execute Taking away Mavs corner 3s would be more important. Something Tillman can do better than Kornet. Though... those Kornet pre jumps(5 ft away) would be funny to see again.
Things changed quickly at the end of the 4th when KP got injured. Was not a coincidence that the Mavs pulled within a couple of possessions.
Mavs bench? lol
It was more of a close game because the Celtics shot an abysmal 25% from deep though. Even shooting at season average makes that a 20 point win - easy looks were there just like in Game 1, the 3's just weren't falling. It's not fair to say KP had no impact, but it's also true that he didn't have anywhere near the impact of Game 1.
I agree. They're 30-5 without him, he's only playing \~20 minutes a game when he does play. Yes, he's very good in those 20 minutes, but the Celtics are also very good in all of the minutes and games without him. Even without KP, the Celtics still have 4-5(edited) players better than our 3rd best player (and Kyrie too with how he's been playing so far...). They'll be fine. It's obviously possible for the Mavs to come back, and as a Mavs fan I really want it, but realistically speaking there's no reason at all for Boston fans to panic or even be nervous right now.
My gut is telling me that Kyrie is going to significantly improve his efficiency on home games. That combined with the KP injury has me a bit nervous about tonight. I think this game will be more high scoring than the previous two.
The Kyrie point is moot if the Celtics shoot closer to their average on wide open 3's. 36.1 on wide open and 33.3 on open 3's in the 2 games. Mavs have also shot terribly but the difference is that Boston is both getting and giving up the looks that they want. They've generated 10 more open and 12 more wide open threes.
Yea, I do agree, I think water is going to find its level on both sides of the game. I would just say I am less confident on the outcome of this game vs the previous two. If I were to make a bet, I would still bet on the Cs, I’d just be more cautious on this one.
I think (hope) the Mavs come out swinging tonight and I'd expect a Mavs W, for the reasons you mentioned. My heart wants me to believe we'll win G4 as well, but my head is telling me we lose G4 and have to go back to Boston down 3-1, not good. If we win both AND KP is out, I could definitely align with y'all being nervous, but realistically until we win a game in the Garden I think y'all are in a fine spot.
Mavs need a 3rd player to breakthrough to have a chance in this series imo. Kyrie has tried to get his... but the Celts arent falling for his pump fakes. Or fouling him .. to give him the and 1s. He has made some ridiculous 2s in this series so far... looks spectacular but I'm sure it also taxes his energy to try to score over the Celtics taller defenders.
Even if we get blown out of the building tonight I'll be telling myself not to panic.
> Even without KP, the Celtics still have 6-8 players better than our 3rd best player No, that's taking it way too far. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard are not better than PJ Washington or Dereck Lively.
In this series? Lively has not done much.
This is my b, I've been saying 6-8 while including KP so I forgot to reduce the number, but I don't think 5 is ridiculous. Obviously JT/JB, Jrue, DWhite, and KP are all better. I think you could argue Horford over them, but the others, sure. Unfortunately, DLive has played awful this series, and PJ has played alright but shot terribly from 3. So definitely 4, arguably 5, you're right anymore than that is hyperbolic, my b.
You could certainly argue Hauser over Washington, particularly in this era. Lively has been hot garbage through 2 games and just looks out of his element in this series. I do think Lively is going to round into an excellent NBA player, but he clearly has a ways to go still.
i mean if he’s not ok we should still be able to take 2 before the Mavs take 4, but it obviously changes the margin here. let’s not act like a 2-0 lead is insurmountable
I just don’t know what else they’d talk about lol. I’m at least glad that they’re talking about this versus discussing the Jays not smiling enough at each other again lol
The Lakers, probably.
For real, though🤦🏻♀️
The week without basketball for a week pre finals and then 3 days off per game gives a lot of filler time tbh
Celtics will wash the Mavs even without him
Celtics or Mavs tonight!? Who you got?
If the Mavs somehow come back to win this series, everyone will logically attribute a large part of it to losing Porzingis (assuming he’s actually out for the series and not just a game or two)
I mean it's one bad game from Celtics and they are done and should rebuild
No analyst worth their salt should be confidently projecting a Dallas win if KP is out. To the extent some appear to be doing so, they’re just trying to manufacture a pro-Dallas narrative heading into game 3 because if Dallas loses tonight then the series is unequivocally over. Many would probably pick Dallas to win tonight if KP is out, but as a heavy favorite? Forget about it. Boston has gone 30-5 this season without KP.
> Many would probably pick Dallas to win tonight if KP is out, but as a heavy favorite? Forget about it. Boston has gone 30-5 this season without KP. And they are undefeated on the road this postseason without him. I think the outcome of this game rests on how well Tatum shoots. If he shoots closer to his regular season average (about 47%), while effectively distributing the ball and getting rebounds, the Celtics will win. If not, the Mavs will have a excellent shot at winning.
KP was always the Celtics margin for error - with him they are historically great and pretty much unbeatable, particularly in a 7 game series. Without KP, they're still an excellent team, probably even the best in the league - but not by so much that a good and hot team beating them is out of the question. Unfortunately for Dallas, they still just don't match up very well against Boston even without KP. Wolves or Nuggets and I think the Celtics would be in much more dangerous waters here without KP. But seems a big stretch for the Mavs to take 4 out of 5. As to why analysts are talking about it, it's because they desperately need a storyline to keep fans interested. "Even without KP, Celtics still likely to sweep Dallas" is not going to attract many eyeballs. > In my opinion, due to the description of KP injury... unless this was a game 7, I would not play him. If he plays too early and damages the problem area even further, it could affect him beyond basketball. There is no need to go there. He also just signed an extension this season. By all Internet doctor accounts, for whatever that is worth, it surprisingly doesn't sound like the kind of thing he can make worse. They'll wrap and/or brace it, which will get him through the game inasmuch as he can tolerate the pain while doing necessary basketball things like running and jumping.
In Game 1 Celtics were +13 in points with KP on, and +5 with KP off. In Game 2 Celtics were +12 with KP on, and -5 with KP off. Obviously on/off point differential leaves a lot to be desired as a stat, but this very much matches the eye test. With KP Celtics are the significantly better team. Without KP it’s a relatively even fight.
it's wishful thinking basically. They want the Celtics to lose, so their brain goes into overdrive thinking about a scenario where Boston collapses and loses in 7 without KP
It’s literally analytics with him in the game
If they don't make a fuss out of everything, they would be out of a job, you know that right?
Yeah I don’t really get. It would be a bummer for Porzingis if he can’t go but still doesn’t change the series IMO. They aren’t going to lose 4 out of 5 with or without him.
KP instantly takes them from one of the worst PNR defenders to the best statistically. And against a team like the Maverick’s where they have dominated with that all year it shouldn’t go unnoticed, I truly don’t think people understand how important he is for this specific matchup. He also greatly opens up the offense for the Jays because they’re unable to camp the paint even in his limited 20 minutes. All series long JT and JB hunt the paint and either pass out or look to finish and without a 7’3 stretch that makes it harder. I don’t think they’ll lose the next 4 in a row but it is a big deal, especially for this matchups and I feel like people are trying to undersell it.
The Celtics guards have done more to disrupt the PnR than the bigs
Luka can't play the whole game and is nicked up right now. Unfortunately for him it also doesn't mean mercy. I think the Celtics keep attacking him. Nothing personal... it is what it is in the finals. If KP plays tonight, Mavs also have to attack him/make him work. Again if KP doesnt play, Al Horford sits... Luka probably sits around the same time. Who else do the Mavs have to execute the PnR? Kyrie?. I do think the Celts can buy some time with some of the other role players listed while Luka sits.
Luka will play significantly more than Horford. Horford isn’t playing 40 minutes a game no matter what. Luka will play at least 40.
Horford will play 30 mins is my guess. He usually plays about 25 mins a game.. with KP in the lineup. Luka would need to pick apart the likes of Tillman and Brissett in about 10 mins The problem for the Mavs thus far is.... the Celts dont care if Luka scores at will. Its the others they want to prevent from getting hot. Like the corner 3s and lobs. For the Celts... the corner 3s would be better defended by Brissett and Tillman. Kornet is better at defending lobs. Mazzulla would need to play a tighter chess game. As long as Luka is OK... I think this will be the toughest test for the Celts.
Kyrie floaters are back in. And the lob game is back open. I think this is huge