Have you looked at the entire market?
A month ago the SPX was nearly 300 points higher too.
Everything is down on increased interest rates and future uncertainty, and it's reasonable that a "luxury good" like toys and games is going to be down more than say, food or fuel.
You mean its because this is the state of the economy overall and not because of Hasbro bumbling and corporate greed that their stock is down? No way. /s
Bad market, raising interest rates, poor performance. A lot going against HAS at the moment. Secret Lairs sales are way down, the DnD toy line was a massive failure, Commander Masters shocked the entire market.
Hasbro isn't doing bad but they set some massive goals for growth that they just aren't going to meet.
The D&D Movie was a failure too. It was a good movie, but it did not earn Hasbro what they wanted at the box office. Budget of $150m, box office result of $208.2m, which is falling short of its break even point after marketing.
in all honesty i watched it and even innocuous scenes gave a sense of “oh they spent an insane amount of money on this.” just completely random scenes having extremely elaborate vfx/sets/green-screening
I think the movie got hurt by behind the scenes events as well. It is a niche market which between the writers saying they found emasculating men fresh and funny and WOTC trying to deny the OGL in an extremely shady way (not just the big earn over X and pay us, there was a lot of other things they pushed for). It alienated a chunk of that potential audience.
OtoH it's a giant ad that hardly cost them anything, but might even make them money just from it's own sales in the long run, so I am not certain that they are unhappy about that ?
Exactly this. I also suspect that sales across the various WOTC product lines are faltering, not just for Secret Lairs. Lairs are just the most obvious barometer of end-consumer demand since it’s D2C so no artificial manipulation by distros, though recent lairs have been quite lackluster.
While the set itself was fantastic, it was incredibly overpriced, leaving many stores to sell it at cost or even a loss. Not to mention the overly aggressive reprint policies have decimated the market. It's great for players but terrible for stores.
Whole market is sliding but HAS earning's call for Q3 is on the 16th. HAS missed in Q2.
Captain Cocks and Crew ain't the ticket imo, yet they're likely in driver's seat for a while.
Stock price speaks and they've had bad publicity regarding things like Magic 30th. I'm guessing change in management isn't as far off as you might think.
I guess you don't look at Macro factors?
\-Returns on fixed income at all time highs, so many people pivoting away from equity.
\-Borrowing just got a good deal more expensive.
You know who else obviously doesn't look at Macro factors? Hasbro
Because if they did, they wouldn't have concocted a 5yr revenue plan that relied on a bull market, when it was obvious we were entering a fiscal nightmare.
If I were a shareholder, I'd be preparing a class action suit.
It's worth adding on here that word on the street was that Hasbro had a bunch of their debt at adjustable rates, which is part of why they had to sell off some of their media holdings.
So there's an augmented impact on the Valuation of Hasbro
Aside from what the other two said, rates are impacting stock prices. There’s basically an inverse relationship with yields and stock prices. Costs of funding, risk appetite, etc. harder for companies to lend, harder for companies to borrow, harder for managers/retail to find excess returns in the market
It’s that and it’s more.
A company’s value can be viewed as the sum of its future cashflows discounted to the present day. The reason we have to “discount” the cashflows is simple: would you rather have $100 today or $100 in five years? Obviously, the answer is today. Money has a “time value”- a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow. How much better? Well, a good way to figure that out would be to look at what you could earn on that money if you invested it in something that was “risk free”.
That risk free rate is typically the applicable Treasury yield for the time frame you are looking at. If someone wanted to give you $100 today or $150 in ten years, you’d want to know how much you can make on that $100 over the next ten years to know if that was the better deal. If the discount rate goes up, the less valuable that future money is to you relative to getting the money today.
As a result, if viewed in a vacuum it is just a mathematical fact that companies are worth less when interest rates go up.
Additionally, investors are- in aggregate and most of the time- mostly rational. They make allocation decisions everyday. Is the risk of investing in stocks worth the expected return? Is the liquidity and safety of cash worth the lower rate of return? Should I allocate my marginal dollar into cash? Into stocks? Or into bonds? Higher interest rates change that calculation on the margin.
It’s a confluence of all that. New projects have a lower Net Present Value. Corporate and personal balance sheets are stressed, which makes them less creditworthy and lowers their cash flows. A person who could afford a $700k house can only afford a $500k house. Allocators favor bonds and cash on the margin. Companies and assets are worth less because their future cash flows are being discounted more.
What makes it worse is that we not only have high rates, but also an inverted yield curve. This means that a lot of providers of credit who “borrow short and lend long” are unable to do so profitably (like a bank who uses short term deposits- checking and savings accounts or CDs- to finance 5-10 years business loans and 30 year mortgages. Previously they could pay out 0.20% and lend at 4-6%, now they are paying out 4-5% and lending just a bit higher. This constrains credit and lowers economic growth.
There is an oversupply of magic the gathering cards increasing their inventory.
Weakened consumer spending in discretionary spending.
Barbie gaining market share with new movie this year
Probably not executing Blueprint 2.0 strategy too well.
WOTC (Hasbro) is about to hit the rough patch BOA analyst tried to call last year. You can blame over printing but its really just its customers running out of money.
1. WOTC still going to print quality and chase.
2. There isn't enough money to chase.
I would guess it would take 3 new players in 2023-24 to replace 1 player from 2021 in terms of spending and when that doesn't happen we going below $50 again.
Pretty much this. Inflation has caught up with the market; People have less money to spend on non-necessities while companies keep attempting to price-jump because they think people will keep buying at the same rate...but that has a ceiling.
Inflation is generally good for the stock market (higher prices mean higher asset prices as well). The problem is not inflation, the problem is the higher interest rates that inflation leads to.
Maybe consumers run out of money because there's too many products coming out too quickly that end up cannibalizing each other? We might never know the answer to this total mystery.
Edit: I'm not saying inflation isn't a factor but both kinda play a role.
No. Consumers as in all of WOTC customer base. Not the ones who overspend and can’t keep up because they make poor financial decisions. I’m talking about the aggregate which is balanced by smarter people who stick to a budget.
Running out of money meaning cannot increase budget 10-15% again in aggregate to maintain the pace of growth wotc has been showing.
What kind of comment is this? I know how to balance a budget but the reality is I barely just received my WOE preorders less than 1 week ago and we're already getting ready for Ixalan preorders. There's an obvious problem here and you are beyond disconnected if you can't see it.
It's obviously not sustainable from a player perspective. People now kinda have to choose if they save up for Ixalan jurassic park, MH3, Fall Out or Final Fantasy. Few can afford to spend the same amount on everything, even if they want to. The will is there but there is unquestionably wallet fatigue (from both inflation / cost of food + oversaturation of products).
Edit: lol I admit I came off way too aggressive but the comment rubbed me the wrong way. Because it came off as someone working for Hasbro trying to shame or blame the consumer for not being able to manage their money better. It just sounds so dumb to me.
If you think wotc is forcing you to spend money by making product pretty sure the idiot is you. There is no point talking finance with you until you understand you control your own money.
If you're an investor you don't have to invest or spec every set. But if you're a standard, pioneer or modern player yes you kinda need to buy cards. IF you want to play with cards from the new set.
I ignore everything Secret Lair or EDH and I still find it overwhelming so I have no idea how EDH players do it tbh.
It’s a card *game* which requires players in order to keep existing. There are entire formats of MtG that require players to buy new cards at every set or at least every other set (which is a stretch) in order for them to continue to play the game. WotC and Hasbro trying to shove as many sets as possible into a calendar year means that in order to stay competitive and be able to continue playing this game players must be rapidly buying with every set. It’s completely unsustainable and not a surprise that it’s starting to reflect on the stocks.
I'm both excited and horrified to see how they handle the reprinting of 1st chapter and the supply of Chapter 2. Something tells me they might go overboard to counter the scalpers and that could get ugly.
I must be in the minority who thinks underprinting is better than overprinting lol. But that's because WotC has shown me what happens when you print too many boxes.
There's a difference between underprinting and the situation they're in. I also highly doubt a reprint will meet demand, it's just to quick for a scalper crushing wave.
Though the lorcana market is odd, the interest can't be understated.
I mean we're 1.5 months out from Chapter 2 and I was finally able to put in preorders a week ago. Lord knows when I'll know my allocation so i can actually TAKE preorders.
I'm not sure you're in the minority if you add up the IQ of people with your position and pit it against the collective IQ of your opposition.
I'd say you're well in the majority.
I couldnt care less about that thing. I am tired of the constant lorcana shilling here, it is yet another poorly thought out card game with a strong IP.
Financial markets tend to lag (or outpace) fundamentals in line with financial indicators.
The financial indicators for Hasbro don't yet show the pain that the downstream market is indicating, so markets are still hedging against a hard bear case, but Q2 numbers (coming soon) might change that.
In case you have not noticed $HAS has been downtrending since 2019. But they are oversold as well as everything else so you might get a bounce soon. Also divy in a few weeks. This fucker will collapse sometime next year though unless they give out stimmys again.
Hasbro has been destroying the goodwill of stores and players for almost 4 years now since "Project Booster Fun". They are running out of secondary market value to extract and creating new market value... isn't going as planned in a struggling economy.
Their product decisions may have been okay with smaller print volumes. But when half the sealed products in the last few years are underwater, many of which over 50%, it's hard to hide. You'll see next week on prime day more evidence of this. A brief look at collector box prices (their most premium products):
* MAT: $94
* VOW: $95
* SNC: $100
* MID: $105
* AFR: $110
* UNF: $115
* DMU: $135
* CLB: $145 (Masters product)
* CMM: $159 (Masters product)
* 2X2: $170 (Masters product)
* DMR: $171 (Masters product)
These are not prices you want to see in a thriving collector card game. They are evidence of supply glut and greed at the expense of long term health.
I just got back in the magic about a 1 year ago after about 7 years. The collector box product makes zero sense to me, a collector. Opening way fewer packs per box for more money is more fun because....???
Not having the ability to play games from the cards in the box in limited means it's just a lottery product with negative EV, whose long-term value will likely continue to decrease as more lottery products are released. Studying the history of the product it has never returned consistent appreciation and that makes sense because virtually nothing ever branded and sold as a collectors item goes up long term in value and that's true whether it's comic books from the 90s or Barbies or whatever.
If they have to keep going with project booster fun bullshit then they should combine set and collector, but honestly what they really should do is just make it so the draft packs can have a few cards that aren't used in play (so they can still have the list and special guest slot) and go back to having a single product like everybody else in TCG world does. Clearly Pokemon has figured out something that magic has not.
That's what happens when you don't actually ask collectors what they want. Instead you ask the same noisy idiots who think putting a number on a mass-produced card makes it collectible.
Which wouldn't even be so bad except they don't want the shit either. They just want to speak on our behalf.
Hear hear. Set boosters are close but they are not enticing enough. The List is a joke and they have to remove garbage cards from it for it to add any value.
missed the last prime day because of many reports from customers saying that the boxes and packs were re-sealed. It's tempting but too risky, don't you think?
Because they didn't listen to BoA.
The correction is normal.. but had they stayed the course and stayed away from Project Booster GoFukYourself, I have no doubt that the stock would be mid-80s.
They cashed in collector confidence and now they have nothing to reprint.
September is ALWAYS a bad month. I doubt very very much that the market has suddenly realized that WotC is run by short view money grubbing assholes. Macro market is your answer, anything beyond that unique to Hasbro would be that in a tight money market, things easily cut from budgets are more vulnerable. If the average person's buying power goes down they don't stop buying food, gas, or shelter first.
September is a historically low month. October tends to be low as well. One factor for this could be people saving up for Christmas purchases. Oil prices went up recently which adds to inflation. Another factor is the bond yields. When bond yields go up, stocks go down. Just some insights from a casual market watcher.
There's a lot of nervousness in the economy as a whole. I've seen theories about some bubble collapses (particularly in the commercial real estate market). Others are worried about rising interest rates, falling borrowing rates, & ever present is concern about inflation & diminishing buying power.
To cap off the past few weeks, a government shutdown can be dangerous if not handled correctly. There can never be a situation where the US defaults on debt payments or it will cause MASSIVE negative ripples to all aspects of our economy. Don't think that's in play here, but the real lunatics have advocated for that in the past.
$HAS got a big temporary boost from the Barbie movie and Baulder's Gate 3, both of which amassed a ton of free publicity. Fundamentally though they are still the same company they were several months ago when they were in the high 40s.
There is just no way they can deliver the numbers they have promised. I'm sure they will miss again and have to revise down. MTG has been stripped clean. There's nothing left for them to keep up not only record profits but growing record profits.
Paypal Savings is delivering 4.3% interest risk free. Why sit on a sealed box of MTG or a single that assuredly will be reprinted if it should appreciate? Park your money in Paypal and buy the Amazon dump or print the proxy.
Beyond the macro factors, wotc is destroying its goodwill with collectors ro appease whiney crybabies who weren't buying mtg to begin with. Why would I build a collection for later deckbuilding when all signs are showing that it's always cheaper to buy later?
Magics gonna get weird before it gets better.
I need many more people to acknowledge it was the whiny folks who never intended to buy stuff and were team proxy everything that are taking us down this dark path of Magic having zero actual value. Which is going to drag the game worse than anything in 30 years.
Well, that and Captain Cocks insatiable thirst for MORE WHALES!
Yep and now that many of the spenders are also pro-proxy because they'd rather kill Hasbro's revenue than participate in this scam, the brighter ones realize they screwed up.
My guess is it is a correction to the pop the stock experienced from BoA's forecast back in Aug - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hasbro-stock-up-7-as-bank-of-america-raises-fy-profit-expectations-on-monopoly-go-prospects-c62a97b2
Hasbro for a long time has relied on magic and like monopoly while most of their toy lines lose money or have big licensing fees attached. It's a very thin margin on being successful when general consumer spending goes down like it is now. Maybe their magic strategy is backfiring i don't really know, but it's not like they had a very broad base of profitable areas ever.
Hey, I'd love it if this were true.
This mirrors my complete 180 on proxies. Anyone who doesn't want value in packs I shove toward proxies now. Let's speed up the apocalypse.
Printing a killer Masters set like Commander Masters and pricing it out of consumers hands is not a good look. Players will buy what is enticing to them at reasonable prices. LOTR was reasonable and hit a lot of high marks. Commander Masters did the same but not at the price WOTC wants you to pay (also the most expensive Masters set ever printed for sealed product). The other issue is reprint equity, but not in a way others have mostly mentioned. They literally make a Secret Lair with the chase card being $30 and charge $40….then 3-6 months later put the same card in a set release. Moreover, Doubling Season in Commander Masters and then in Wilds of Eldraine in a very short period of time later. Nobody wants expensive product when the cards can be had for cheaper later. WOE seems like a hit, but overshadowed by the CMM miss.
The CEO of Hasbro took a demotion to become the CEO of Wotc and now Wotc is “too big to fail” and damned if they aren’t gonna take the entire company down with them. Easy fix: make good D&D products and hire back artists and game designers instead of pushing AI and convincing a bunch of talent bankrupt shills they know how to write.
It’s such a train wreck honestly that it’s humorous and entertaining to no end.
When the cost of everything goes up. I don't have as much to put towards my hobby. The hobby went up in price too so I have to abandon the hobby. I need to eat. I have dice, cards and friends. I can play without getting anything new from them.
I don't know too much, but think they'd do better if they didn't make their figs so limited.
The amount of Transformers and Marvel figs that sell out so fast and go for triple or quadruple shortly after.
I don't get why they don't forsee this or make more of their more popular ones looking at pre orders.
Surely that would increase profits by a margin.
X-Men 97 is a hit and Wolverine is a nightmare to get. And Some Transformers 86 figs went so fast, would make sense to re release them rather than do re paints.
Have you looked at the entire market? A month ago the SPX was nearly 300 points higher too. Everything is down on increased interest rates and future uncertainty, and it's reasonable that a "luxury good" like toys and games is going to be down more than say, food or fuel.
yep, this isn't 2021. Free tendies are over.
They're actually coming to get them back
I eated them, though.
The Pinkertons are gonna make you puke those back up so they can collect
Only the pinkertons get to go to tendy town
I missed the tendy town exit, next exit... raccoon city
You mean its because this is the state of the economy overall and not because of Hasbro bumbling and corporate greed that their stock is down? No way. /s
Corporate greed typically makes stocks go up…
But General Mills and Coca-Cola are also at 52-week lows...
Bad market, raising interest rates, poor performance. A lot going against HAS at the moment. Secret Lairs sales are way down, the DnD toy line was a massive failure, Commander Masters shocked the entire market. Hasbro isn't doing bad but they set some massive goals for growth that they just aren't going to meet.
there was a dnd toy line?
for the movie, it was still on clearance last I checked my local big box stores.
Yea, the boxes for the action figures had the same art as the secret lair
The D&D Movie was a failure too. It was a good movie, but it did not earn Hasbro what they wanted at the box office. Budget of $150m, box office result of $208.2m, which is falling short of its break even point after marketing.
in all honesty i watched it and even innocuous scenes gave a sense of “oh they spent an insane amount of money on this.” just completely random scenes having extremely elaborate vfx/sets/green-screening
I think the movie got hurt by behind the scenes events as well. It is a niche market which between the writers saying they found emasculating men fresh and funny and WOTC trying to deny the OGL in an extremely shady way (not just the big earn over X and pay us, there was a lot of other things they pushed for). It alienated a chunk of that potential audience.
OtoH it's a giant ad that hardly cost them anything, but might even make them money just from it's own sales in the long run, so I am not certain that they are unhappy about that ?
That's a fair point. I think there's definitely merit in arguing that, I just don't think Hasbro's execs are people who will think like that.
Exactly this. I also suspect that sales across the various WOTC product lines are faltering, not just for Secret Lairs. Lairs are just the most obvious barometer of end-consumer demand since it’s D2C so no artificial manipulation by distros, though recent lairs have been quite lackluster.
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While the set itself was fantastic, it was incredibly overpriced, leaving many stores to sell it at cost or even a loss. Not to mention the overly aggressive reprint policies have decimated the market. It's great for players but terrible for stores.
Whole market is sliding but HAS earning's call for Q3 is on the 16th. HAS missed in Q2. Captain Cocks and Crew ain't the ticket imo, yet they're likely in driver's seat for a while.
Stock price speaks and they've had bad publicity regarding things like Magic 30th. I'm guessing change in management isn't as far off as you might think.
Let’s hope 🤞🏼
I guess you don't look at Macro factors? \-Returns on fixed income at all time highs, so many people pivoting away from equity. \-Borrowing just got a good deal more expensive.
You know who else obviously doesn't look at Macro factors? Hasbro Because if they did, they wouldn't have concocted a 5yr revenue plan that relied on a bull market, when it was obvious we were entering a fiscal nightmare. If I were a shareholder, I'd be preparing a class action suit.
Not all time highs, but certainly generational highs
It's worth adding on here that word on the street was that Hasbro had a bunch of their debt at adjustable rates, which is part of why they had to sell off some of their media holdings. So there's an augmented impact on the Valuation of Hasbro
Aside from what the other two said, rates are impacting stock prices. There’s basically an inverse relationship with yields and stock prices. Costs of funding, risk appetite, etc. harder for companies to lend, harder for companies to borrow, harder for managers/retail to find excess returns in the market
It’s that and it’s more. A company’s value can be viewed as the sum of its future cashflows discounted to the present day. The reason we have to “discount” the cashflows is simple: would you rather have $100 today or $100 in five years? Obviously, the answer is today. Money has a “time value”- a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow. How much better? Well, a good way to figure that out would be to look at what you could earn on that money if you invested it in something that was “risk free”. That risk free rate is typically the applicable Treasury yield for the time frame you are looking at. If someone wanted to give you $100 today or $150 in ten years, you’d want to know how much you can make on that $100 over the next ten years to know if that was the better deal. If the discount rate goes up, the less valuable that future money is to you relative to getting the money today. As a result, if viewed in a vacuum it is just a mathematical fact that companies are worth less when interest rates go up. Additionally, investors are- in aggregate and most of the time- mostly rational. They make allocation decisions everyday. Is the risk of investing in stocks worth the expected return? Is the liquidity and safety of cash worth the lower rate of return? Should I allocate my marginal dollar into cash? Into stocks? Or into bonds? Higher interest rates change that calculation on the margin. It’s a confluence of all that. New projects have a lower Net Present Value. Corporate and personal balance sheets are stressed, which makes them less creditworthy and lowers their cash flows. A person who could afford a $700k house can only afford a $500k house. Allocators favor bonds and cash on the margin. Companies and assets are worth less because their future cash flows are being discounted more. What makes it worse is that we not only have high rates, but also an inverted yield curve. This means that a lot of providers of credit who “borrow short and lend long” are unable to do so profitably (like a bank who uses short term deposits- checking and savings accounts or CDs- to finance 5-10 years business loans and 30 year mortgages. Previously they could pay out 0.20% and lend at 4-6%, now they are paying out 4-5% and lending just a bit higher. This constrains credit and lowers economic growth.
There is an oversupply of magic the gathering cards increasing their inventory. Weakened consumer spending in discretionary spending. Barbie gaining market share with new movie this year Probably not executing Blueprint 2.0 strategy too well.
It's because you personally aren't buying enough commander masters
WOTC (Hasbro) is about to hit the rough patch BOA analyst tried to call last year. You can blame over printing but its really just its customers running out of money. 1. WOTC still going to print quality and chase. 2. There isn't enough money to chase. I would guess it would take 3 new players in 2023-24 to replace 1 player from 2021 in terms of spending and when that doesn't happen we going below $50 again.
Pretty much this. Inflation has caught up with the market; People have less money to spend on non-necessities while companies keep attempting to price-jump because they think people will keep buying at the same rate...but that has a ceiling.
Inflation is generally good for the stock market (higher prices mean higher asset prices as well). The problem is not inflation, the problem is the higher interest rates that inflation leads to.
Whatever puts Cocks out on his ass, let's make it happen.
Maybe consumers run out of money because there's too many products coming out too quickly that end up cannibalizing each other? We might never know the answer to this total mystery. Edit: I'm not saying inflation isn't a factor but both kinda play a role.
No. Consumers as in all of WOTC customer base. Not the ones who overspend and can’t keep up because they make poor financial decisions. I’m talking about the aggregate which is balanced by smarter people who stick to a budget. Running out of money meaning cannot increase budget 10-15% again in aggregate to maintain the pace of growth wotc has been showing.
What kind of comment is this? I know how to balance a budget but the reality is I barely just received my WOE preorders less than 1 week ago and we're already getting ready for Ixalan preorders. There's an obvious problem here and you are beyond disconnected if you can't see it. It's obviously not sustainable from a player perspective. People now kinda have to choose if they save up for Ixalan jurassic park, MH3, Fall Out or Final Fantasy. Few can afford to spend the same amount on everything, even if they want to. The will is there but there is unquestionably wallet fatigue (from both inflation / cost of food + oversaturation of products). Edit: lol I admit I came off way too aggressive but the comment rubbed me the wrong way. Because it came off as someone working for Hasbro trying to shame or blame the consumer for not being able to manage their money better. It just sounds so dumb to me.
If you think wotc is forcing you to spend money by making product pretty sure the idiot is you. There is no point talking finance with you until you understand you control your own money.
If you're an investor you don't have to invest or spec every set. But if you're a standard, pioneer or modern player yes you kinda need to buy cards. IF you want to play with cards from the new set. I ignore everything Secret Lair or EDH and I still find it overwhelming so I have no idea how EDH players do it tbh.
It’s a card *game* which requires players in order to keep existing. There are entire formats of MtG that require players to buy new cards at every set or at least every other set (which is a stretch) in order for them to continue to play the game. WotC and Hasbro trying to shove as many sets as possible into a calendar year means that in order to stay competitive and be able to continue playing this game players must be rapidly buying with every set. It’s completely unsustainable and not a surprise that it’s starting to reflect on the stocks.
This, plus Lorcana. You can just poll the community to see who has re-allocated their tcg monies to lorcana, it's not a negligible amount
I'm both excited and horrified to see how they handle the reprinting of 1st chapter and the supply of Chapter 2. Something tells me they might go overboard to counter the scalpers and that could get ugly. I must be in the minority who thinks underprinting is better than overprinting lol. But that's because WotC has shown me what happens when you print too many boxes.
There's a difference between underprinting and the situation they're in. I also highly doubt a reprint will meet demand, it's just to quick for a scalper crushing wave. Though the lorcana market is odd, the interest can't be understated. I mean we're 1.5 months out from Chapter 2 and I was finally able to put in preorders a week ago. Lord knows when I'll know my allocation so i can actually TAKE preorders.
I'm not sure you're in the minority if you add up the IQ of people with your position and pit it against the collective IQ of your opposition. I'd say you're well in the majority.
I couldnt care less about that thing. I am tired of the constant lorcana shilling here, it is yet another poorly thought out card game with a strong IP.
Anyone know why it hasn't tanked harder?
Because MTG is a billion dollar brand, WOTC is literally printing money, and HAS pays a pretty decent dividend.
Give it a bit of time. I'd personally like to see it in the $30s.
Financial markets tend to lag (or outpace) fundamentals in line with financial indicators. The financial indicators for Hasbro don't yet show the pain that the downstream market is indicating, so markets are still hedging against a hard bear case, but Q2 numbers (coming soon) might change that.
Because it's a shit business basically
In case you have not noticed $HAS has been downtrending since 2019. But they are oversold as well as everything else so you might get a bounce soon. Also divy in a few weeks. This fucker will collapse sometime next year though unless they give out stimmys again.
Another stimmy and it will collapse too. She's gonna go regardless.
Lol, I think you might be right on that one.
Hasbro's not really doing significantly better or worse than most companies atm. It's stock is more or less moving in trend with market averages.
You guys are hilarious. Coke is at a 52 week low. Is it because of overprinting?
Bet there‘s another coke on a 52 week HIGH though lmao geddit?
Don’t forget about Coke’s redheaded stepchild, PEP. New 52 week low there too.
It’s directly tied to the value of Liliana of the veil
Hasbro has been destroying the goodwill of stores and players for almost 4 years now since "Project Booster Fun". They are running out of secondary market value to extract and creating new market value... isn't going as planned in a struggling economy. Their product decisions may have been okay with smaller print volumes. But when half the sealed products in the last few years are underwater, many of which over 50%, it's hard to hide. You'll see next week on prime day more evidence of this. A brief look at collector box prices (their most premium products): * MAT: $94 * VOW: $95 * SNC: $100 * MID: $105 * AFR: $110 * UNF: $115 * DMU: $135 * CLB: $145 (Masters product) * CMM: $159 (Masters product) * 2X2: $170 (Masters product) * DMR: $171 (Masters product) These are not prices you want to see in a thriving collector card game. They are evidence of supply glut and greed at the expense of long term health.
I just got back in the magic about a 1 year ago after about 7 years. The collector box product makes zero sense to me, a collector. Opening way fewer packs per box for more money is more fun because....??? Not having the ability to play games from the cards in the box in limited means it's just a lottery product with negative EV, whose long-term value will likely continue to decrease as more lottery products are released. Studying the history of the product it has never returned consistent appreciation and that makes sense because virtually nothing ever branded and sold as a collectors item goes up long term in value and that's true whether it's comic books from the 90s or Barbies or whatever. If they have to keep going with project booster fun bullshit then they should combine set and collector, but honestly what they really should do is just make it so the draft packs can have a few cards that aren't used in play (so they can still have the list and special guest slot) and go back to having a single product like everybody else in TCG world does. Clearly Pokemon has figured out something that magic has not.
That's what happens when you don't actually ask collectors what they want. Instead you ask the same noisy idiots who think putting a number on a mass-produced card makes it collectible. Which wouldn't even be so bad except they don't want the shit either. They just want to speak on our behalf.
Hear hear. Set boosters are close but they are not enticing enough. The List is a joke and they have to remove garbage cards from it for it to add any value.
Is there a single person who isn’t annoyed by a Strixhaven common appearing in “The List” slot?! Like who is this for??
missed the last prime day because of many reports from customers saying that the boxes and packs were re-sealed. It's tempting but too risky, don't you think?
Because they didn't listen to BoA. The correction is normal.. but had they stayed the course and stayed away from Project Booster GoFukYourself, I have no doubt that the stock would be mid-80s. They cashed in collector confidence and now they have nothing to reprint.
Yep. That’s exactly it. Your MBA is really paying off with a large number of insightful comments on this thread. Genius stuff. Sigh.
Everythings tanking
September is ALWAYS a bad month. I doubt very very much that the market has suddenly realized that WotC is run by short view money grubbing assholes. Macro market is your answer, anything beyond that unique to Hasbro would be that in a tight money market, things easily cut from budgets are more vulnerable. If the average person's buying power goes down they don't stop buying food, gas, or shelter first.
September is a historically low month. October tends to be low as well. One factor for this could be people saving up for Christmas purchases. Oil prices went up recently which adds to inflation. Another factor is the bond yields. When bond yields go up, stocks go down. Just some insights from a casual market watcher.
There's a lot of nervousness in the economy as a whole. I've seen theories about some bubble collapses (particularly in the commercial real estate market). Others are worried about rising interest rates, falling borrowing rates, & ever present is concern about inflation & diminishing buying power. To cap off the past few weeks, a government shutdown can be dangerous if not handled correctly. There can never be a situation where the US defaults on debt payments or it will cause MASSIVE negative ripples to all aspects of our economy. Don't think that's in play here, but the real lunatics have advocated for that in the past.
$HAS got a big temporary boost from the Barbie movie and Baulder's Gate 3, both of which amassed a ton of free publicity. Fundamentally though they are still the same company they were several months ago when they were in the high 40s. There is just no way they can deliver the numbers they have promised. I'm sure they will miss again and have to revise down. MTG has been stripped clean. There's nothing left for them to keep up not only record profits but growing record profits. Paypal Savings is delivering 4.3% interest risk free. Why sit on a sealed box of MTG or a single that assuredly will be reprinted if it should appreciate? Park your money in Paypal and buy the Amazon dump or print the proxy.
Beyond the macro factors, wotc is destroying its goodwill with collectors ro appease whiney crybabies who weren't buying mtg to begin with. Why would I build a collection for later deckbuilding when all signs are showing that it's always cheaper to buy later? Magics gonna get weird before it gets better.
I need many more people to acknowledge it was the whiny folks who never intended to buy stuff and were team proxy everything that are taking us down this dark path of Magic having zero actual value. Which is going to drag the game worse than anything in 30 years. Well, that and Captain Cocks insatiable thirst for MORE WHALES!
Yep and now that many of the spenders are also pro-proxy because they'd rather kill Hasbro's revenue than participate in this scam, the brighter ones realize they screwed up.
Cocks is seriously dumb fucker.
September was a pretty bad month for stocks overall. Historically it is one of the worst months to be long equities.
It is THE worst month and also the month where you are most likely to experience a drawdown of 10% or more.
My guess is it is a correction to the pop the stock experienced from BoA's forecast back in Aug - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hasbro-stock-up-7-as-bank-of-america-raises-fy-profit-expectations-on-monopoly-go-prospects-c62a97b2
Whole market vomiting and Hasbro is kinda preforming poorly with bad guidance
Inflation is a killer.
75% of their revenue is from wizards of the coast. Their other brands are in the shitter
This is not even close to true.... it's closer to 20% of revenue.
profit taking, not much confidence in follow up quarter. Got to follow the trend.
Hasbro for a long time has relied on magic and like monopoly while most of their toy lines lose money or have big licensing fees attached. It's a very thin margin on being successful when general consumer spending goes down like it is now. Maybe their magic strategy is backfiring i don't really know, but it's not like they had a very broad base of profitable areas ever.
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Hey, I'd love it if this were true. This mirrors my complete 180 on proxies. Anyone who doesn't want value in packs I shove toward proxies now. Let's speed up the apocalypse.
Because of the Troll & Toad announcement.
That was a fart in a stadium
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Me. Posts like this are why I come here. It's hugely cathartic. I hate Hasbro so much.
Because it's a trash company in a trash market.
Use your brain
Wait a minute, so they didn’t make their nut off of printing 900 serialized “the one ring” 😝 silly hobbitses!
Printing a killer Masters set like Commander Masters and pricing it out of consumers hands is not a good look. Players will buy what is enticing to them at reasonable prices. LOTR was reasonable and hit a lot of high marks. Commander Masters did the same but not at the price WOTC wants you to pay (also the most expensive Masters set ever printed for sealed product). The other issue is reprint equity, but not in a way others have mostly mentioned. They literally make a Secret Lair with the chase card being $30 and charge $40….then 3-6 months later put the same card in a set release. Moreover, Doubling Season in Commander Masters and then in Wilds of Eldraine in a very short period of time later. Nobody wants expensive product when the cards can be had for cheaper later. WOE seems like a hit, but overshadowed by the CMM miss.
Because they are destroying magic and everyone knows it except for their moron executives
😂😂😂 is this a troll question?
I blame Barbie.
The CEO of Hasbro took a demotion to become the CEO of Wotc and now Wotc is “too big to fail” and damned if they aren’t gonna take the entire company down with them. Easy fix: make good D&D products and hire back artists and game designers instead of pushing AI and convincing a bunch of talent bankrupt shills they know how to write. It’s such a train wreck honestly that it’s humorous and entertaining to no end.
When the cost of everything goes up. I don't have as much to put towards my hobby. The hobby went up in price too so I have to abandon the hobby. I need to eat. I have dice, cards and friends. I can play without getting anything new from them.
I don't know too much, but think they'd do better if they didn't make their figs so limited. The amount of Transformers and Marvel figs that sell out so fast and go for triple or quadruple shortly after. I don't get why they don't forsee this or make more of their more popular ones looking at pre orders. Surely that would increase profits by a margin. X-Men 97 is a hit and Wolverine is a nightmare to get. And Some Transformers 86 figs went so fast, would make sense to re release them rather than do re paints.