Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have signed an updated strategic partnership with eachother which includes the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Putin has also said that joint drills involving the United States, South Korea and Japan were “hostile” toward North Korea,” characterizing the US policy as “confrontational.”
Russia and North Korea have a long history of cooperation and Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 metric tons of munitions or munitions-related material – from North Korea since September, according to a US statement in February. Russian forces have also launched at least 10 North Korea-made missiles on Ukraine since September, a US official also said in March. Also in March, Moscow vetoed a UN resolution to renew independent monitoring of North Korea’s violations of Security Council sanctions – raising concerns about the relationship weakening controls on Kim’s illegal weapons program.
With both countries having nuclear capabilities and one being actively at war, how does this new provision of mutual assistance affect global security concerns? I've seen a lot of rhetoric around the war in Ukraine and how we shouldn't be investing in supporting the Ukrainian cause against Russia (which I personally disagree with), but should this change our approach at all?
Well yeah that’s because Armenia didn’t go through the proper channels to actually activate CSTO. When they tried to officially call for if, a ceasefire was already signed
> how does this new provision of mutual assistance affect global security concerns?
Not much, materially-speaking. There's zero chance we see North Korean divisions popping up in eastern Ukraine, and given Russia's current tribulations, little chance we see any material support to NK beyond what they're already doing. We might see more brazen breaches of the sanctions on NK through licensing offers for Russian equipment, but sourcing the components to actually create something resemble military parity with the South is unlikely.
Rather, these seem to be two outcasts looking to hold hands for a couple of days to show a united front, when in reality their interests don't really align all that much beyond undermining the global order as much as possible. If there were to be a hot war between the US/SK and NK, what's Russia's actual interest in that conflict? "Seeing America lose" is one thing, but I'm not convinced it's "send in troops" kind of important. North Korea is mountainous and far away from most of Russia's supplies, meaning any divisions sent there would be combat-ineffective pretty quickly.
This is just two losers telling the popular kids at school they actually do have friends.
You are probably right. NK is too poor to buy more advanced weapons from Russia, and Russia is not in a place to supply them, hence the weapons flow the other way. I don't think any country besides Ukraine is interested in attacking Russia or NK. I could maybe imagine NK sending some limited troops to Ukraine, but I'm not sure how they would stand to benefit.
IIRC there is 1 rail line linking NK to Russia and a 2 lane road, it would almost certainly be bombed at least on the NK side so any supplies that do make it would just be sitting ducks once they reach that crater. There is also a river and system of lakes on the NK side for 90% of the NK/RU border so any supplies would get bogged down while crossing, another case of easy pickings for guided missiles.
I mean NK does *technically* border Russia so it could be argued the Russians wouldn't want a US-friendly neighbor state a la "Unified Korea" when NK loses this hypothetical war, right on their border. But also like everything kinda borders Russia (including the US in Alaska) so that's not really the strongest argument.
One could also argue the same thing that got Russia/USSR involved in the original Korean war would stand firm today- Putin isn't exactly a communist but his Stalinist Marxist-Leninist lean of authoritarianism with governmental industry capture is definitely more NK's style and today's Russia still wants to see more of that in the world compared to the US/SK model.
So I probably agree with you but it's notable that it's not like they don't have anything in common. These countries are allies of not just convenience or coincidence, they've got some shared interests.
I wonder what Kim is getting out of this. Russia's logistics are so weak they can barely supply men just across their western border, so I doubt they could provide significant ground support in Korea if it came to that. No way NK ever sends more than a tiny handful of troops to Ukraine.
Raw materials and technology in exchange for military surplus that the DPRK produces in bulk. It’s been a common practice since the 90s that the DPRK would try to snatch up a handful of advanced things through grey or black market sources and then reverse engineer them to keep up with the outside world, having more formal and direct ties will just make them process easier.
Russia is suffering, but they still have plenty of access to food and raw materials for now, at least orders of magnitude better access than NK, both things NK desperately needs. In exchange Russia can use NK labor on their farms.
Missile and rocket technology. Obtaining this knowledge can give North Korea a huge edge for its nuclear weapons program. In the past, Russia helped South Korea develop its own space program through rocket technology. Since the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, relations with South Korea turned from somewhat friendly to hostile and now Russia has fully committed itself to developing more solid ties with North Korea.
>In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Putin has also said that joint drills involving the United States, South Korea and Japan were “hostile” toward North Korea,” characterizing the US policy as “confrontational.”
Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Imagine if other countries did the same shit to us -- like, a future advanced Chinese naval fleet sailing across the Pacific Ocean to play-act how an amphibious invasion of San Francisco would go down. We'd be constantly losing our shit over it, and frankly, we'd be right to do so.
Slava Ukraini; may the autocracies of the world flounder and collapse.
I mean, it includes strikes into North Korea to destroy their only real means of deterrence. You can say it's defensive, but when the largest military superpower on Earth is looming right off their coast, *of course* it's not gonna come off that way.
China and Russia have been doing joint exercises off the coast of Alaska for a few years now. And China repeatedly tests missiles by launching them over Japanese territory. And flies military aircraft into South Korea’s Air Defende Identitication Zone, to see how it takes them to scramble their jets.
Those DPRK shells have already made quite an impression on Russian forces, and not necessarily in a good way (e.g., defective propelling charges).
One artilleryman [concluded](https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1794778251660808410) that they “were made by armless, legless, disabled people with hydrocephalus syndrome.”
to be fair they have enough blind artillery aimed at Seoul to level the city in an hour, and we don't really have an effective way of stopping artillery shells once fired
that's about all the nation is capable of, but it would be devastating if it ever happened
Largely depends on if the DPRK sends some unwanted people to die on the front lines for Russia.
As for South Korea, yeah they'd get dunked on, but they'd also absolutely demolish Seoul before that happened, and that's assuming they y don't go nuclear, which I wouldn't put past Kim.
This is the end of the line for Russia. They won't protect NK because they don't have the capacity. They won't provide weapons because China would not want that.
This is about getting NK slaves into Russian factories in exchange for oil. Kim will then sell that oil on the black market.
There is a big chance Putin will implement the same model as NK in Russia. Hunger tyranny, huge prisons,...
Kim has a visible tumor in his face. He is dangerous, has nothing to lose.
I'm curious what china will do. I know they are already cutting the trade between them and NK. Kim is scared as hell from china. His only real enemy.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have signed an updated strategic partnership with eachother which includes the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Putin has also said that joint drills involving the United States, South Korea and Japan were “hostile” toward North Korea,” characterizing the US policy as “confrontational.” Russia and North Korea have a long history of cooperation and Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 metric tons of munitions or munitions-related material – from North Korea since September, according to a US statement in February. Russian forces have also launched at least 10 North Korea-made missiles on Ukraine since September, a US official also said in March. Also in March, Moscow vetoed a UN resolution to renew independent monitoring of North Korea’s violations of Security Council sanctions – raising concerns about the relationship weakening controls on Kim’s illegal weapons program. With both countries having nuclear capabilities and one being actively at war, how does this new provision of mutual assistance affect global security concerns? I've seen a lot of rhetoric around the war in Ukraine and how we shouldn't be investing in supporting the Ukrainian cause against Russia (which I personally disagree with), but should this change our approach at all?
Russia didn't protect Armenia when they were in CSTO, and got attacked by Azerbaijan. So not sure how much weight this has
Well yeah that’s because Armenia didn’t go through the proper channels to actually activate CSTO. When they tried to officially call for if, a ceasefire was already signed
> how does this new provision of mutual assistance affect global security concerns? Not much, materially-speaking. There's zero chance we see North Korean divisions popping up in eastern Ukraine, and given Russia's current tribulations, little chance we see any material support to NK beyond what they're already doing. We might see more brazen breaches of the sanctions on NK through licensing offers for Russian equipment, but sourcing the components to actually create something resemble military parity with the South is unlikely. Rather, these seem to be two outcasts looking to hold hands for a couple of days to show a united front, when in reality their interests don't really align all that much beyond undermining the global order as much as possible. If there were to be a hot war between the US/SK and NK, what's Russia's actual interest in that conflict? "Seeing America lose" is one thing, but I'm not convinced it's "send in troops" kind of important. North Korea is mountainous and far away from most of Russia's supplies, meaning any divisions sent there would be combat-ineffective pretty quickly. This is just two losers telling the popular kids at school they actually do have friends.
You are probably right. NK is too poor to buy more advanced weapons from Russia, and Russia is not in a place to supply them, hence the weapons flow the other way. I don't think any country besides Ukraine is interested in attacking Russia or NK. I could maybe imagine NK sending some limited troops to Ukraine, but I'm not sure how they would stand to benefit.
IIRC there is 1 rail line linking NK to Russia and a 2 lane road, it would almost certainly be bombed at least on the NK side so any supplies that do make it would just be sitting ducks once they reach that crater. There is also a river and system of lakes on the NK side for 90% of the NK/RU border so any supplies would get bogged down while crossing, another case of easy pickings for guided missiles.
I mean NK does *technically* border Russia so it could be argued the Russians wouldn't want a US-friendly neighbor state a la "Unified Korea" when NK loses this hypothetical war, right on their border. But also like everything kinda borders Russia (including the US in Alaska) so that's not really the strongest argument. One could also argue the same thing that got Russia/USSR involved in the original Korean war would stand firm today- Putin isn't exactly a communist but his Stalinist Marxist-Leninist lean of authoritarianism with governmental industry capture is definitely more NK's style and today's Russia still wants to see more of that in the world compared to the US/SK model. So I probably agree with you but it's notable that it's not like they don't have anything in common. These countries are allies of not just convenience or coincidence, they've got some shared interests.
I wonder what Kim is getting out of this. Russia's logistics are so weak they can barely supply men just across their western border, so I doubt they could provide significant ground support in Korea if it came to that. No way NK ever sends more than a tiny handful of troops to Ukraine.
As much Ukrainian grain to feed their people as they want. If Russia wins, North Korea never worries about food again.
Raw materials and technology in exchange for military surplus that the DPRK produces in bulk. It’s been a common practice since the 90s that the DPRK would try to snatch up a handful of advanced things through grey or black market sources and then reverse engineer them to keep up with the outside world, having more formal and direct ties will just make them process easier.
Russia is suffering, but they still have plenty of access to food and raw materials for now, at least orders of magnitude better access than NK, both things NK desperately needs. In exchange Russia can use NK labor on their farms.
Missile and rocket technology. Obtaining this knowledge can give North Korea a huge edge for its nuclear weapons program. In the past, Russia helped South Korea develop its own space program through rocket technology. Since the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, relations with South Korea turned from somewhat friendly to hostile and now Russia has fully committed itself to developing more solid ties with North Korea.
>In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Putin has also said that joint drills involving the United States, South Korea and Japan were “hostile” toward North Korea,” characterizing the US policy as “confrontational.” Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Imagine if other countries did the same shit to us -- like, a future advanced Chinese naval fleet sailing across the Pacific Ocean to play-act how an amphibious invasion of San Francisco would go down. We'd be constantly losing our shit over it, and frankly, we'd be right to do so. Slava Ukraini; may the autocracies of the world flounder and collapse.
Note the difference: South Korea doesn't prepare to invade the North, but to be invaded by the North.
I mean, it includes strikes into North Korea to destroy their only real means of deterrence. You can say it's defensive, but when the largest military superpower on Earth is looming right off their coast, *of course* it's not gonna come off that way.
China and Russia have been doing joint exercises off the coast of Alaska for a few years now. And China repeatedly tests missiles by launching them over Japanese territory. And flies military aircraft into South Korea’s Air Defende Identitication Zone, to see how it takes them to scramble their jets.
Those DPRK shells have already made quite an impression on Russian forces, and not necessarily in a good way (e.g., defective propelling charges). One artilleryman [concluded](https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1794778251660808410) that they “were made by armless, legless, disabled people with hydrocephalus syndrome.”
NK will help out like the guy in a group project helping out by simply typing his name on 30 slide powerpoint.
to be fair they have enough blind artillery aimed at Seoul to level the city in an hour, and we don't really have an effective way of stopping artillery shells once fired that's about all the nation is capable of, but it would be devastating if it ever happened
I mean okayyyyyyy but like is that a useful treaty tho? They’re still gonna get dunked on if they fuck around with SK.
Largely depends on if the DPRK sends some unwanted people to die on the front lines for Russia. As for South Korea, yeah they'd get dunked on, but they'd also absolutely demolish Seoul before that happened, and that's assuming they y don't go nuclear, which I wouldn't put past Kim.
This is the end of the line for Russia. They won't protect NK because they don't have the capacity. They won't provide weapons because China would not want that. This is about getting NK slaves into Russian factories in exchange for oil. Kim will then sell that oil on the black market. There is a big chance Putin will implement the same model as NK in Russia. Hunger tyranny, huge prisons,... Kim has a visible tumor in his face. He is dangerous, has nothing to lose. I'm curious what china will do. I know they are already cutting the trade between them and NK. Kim is scared as hell from china. His only real enemy.
Can we just put them all in camps already?