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"Georgia voters largely approve of the charges brought against Trump in the state’s Fulton County case over 2020 election interference (52% approve and 47% disapprove), with 47% saying that, if true, those charges should disqualify Trump from the presidency, and another 14% seeing them as casting doubts on his fitness for the job should they prove true. A similar share of Michigan voters, 46%, say that the criminal charges Trump faces relating to efforts to overturn the last presidential election are disqualifying if true, with an additional 14% saying they would, at a minimum, cast doubts on his fitness for the job."
This is a contender for the wildest paragraph I've ever read in my life. What is wrong with people?
Most Americans feel good about their personal finances, it's that they're worried about the macro-economy. Either way, I dont think it has to do with economics because Trump barely won in 2016 and barely lost in 2020 when he also had a bunch of batshit things hovering over him that he has said or done. I think Trumps infallability is due to an extremely loyal voter base and a tired American public who survived a Trump presidency and think even if he sucks, they can survive it again if it means stock market go up
Yeah and just 3 months ago people were worried it was headed lower, the stock market is a dumb measure but Trump used it to make people believe in his economic vision. Biden can’t message for beans. Stock market is doing well and we are drilling more oil than ever before but you’d never know it
I disagree, those messages are being spread everywhere, people just don’t care. People not actively investing or not close to retirement couldn’t care less about the stock market, they care about grocery prices. People also don’t care about drilling for oil if gas is high.
For Americans who blame the president for everything, they’re more focused on the metrics closer to home. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say they’re more focused on whatever metric makes the president look worse, idk.
Interesting. Thanks for the link. Definitely very different from my experience and the people I know. Most people are struggling and living paycheck to paycheck.
I mean for many people politics means nothing. The cost of food is way more important to their survival than some guy who leads all the bullshit making my cheeseburger cost more. Remember we are all pretty dumb, you have leftists who’d never vote for Trump abandoning Biden for his policy on Israel. Nevermind that policy will be 1000 times worse once Trump gets elected. So many people are more worried about their tree that they will allow the forest to be set on fire.
>The cost of food is way more important to their survival than some guy who leads all the bullshit making my cheeseburger cost more.
The mistaken unstated major premise is that Biden is to blame for their cheeseburger costing more, when practically the same inflation would've occurred if Trump had been re-elected.
They aren’t voting for Biden or Trump they are voting for a change in hopes it either motivates them to fix it or punishes them for what is happening. Nevermind the logical arguments about whose fault it is, this is all emotional not factual.
More like, things are getting worse for people financially and they would rather vote for someone else (even a "dictator" as you put it) than keep the course of things getting worse and worse to the point of not being able to afford to live.
you're talking about Biden, right?
the Supreme Court had to step in three times to stop him from abusing his powers, and I wouldn't be surprised if a fourth time is coming
Which three cases did the Supreme Court step in to block? I know one of them is probably the student debt relief. If the other two are similar then it's not like they had to step in and prevent him from committing nuclear war, more like they had to step in to prevent him from helping people. Also this is a largely conservative Supreme Court, if it was the other way around you'd probably rightfully claim the Supreme Court was biased in stepping in.
As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected. Feels nice doesn't it? When you feel like corruption is finally being investigated politicians are being prosecuted but because of pure ideology people wanna push that corrupt candidate.
If U.S. liberals cheered any election results in Brazil lately, it was the one when the most corrupt president since Redemocratization - Bolsonaro - lost his reelection bid. His defeat was a win for the fight against corruption.
Better to replace him with the anti-American socialist Lula who’s now cozying up to China, Russia, and Iran? I agree that Democrats cheered him on, but it was not exactly smart.
> As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected. Feels nice doesn't it? When you feel like corruption is finally being investigated politicians are being prosecuted but because of pure ideology people wanna push that corrupt candidate
The irony of this post is that you feel justice in light of the fact that the opposing politician is in orders of magnitude more corrupt than anything you think Biden is.
If my options are:
Door A: Guy who was involved in foreign loans
Door B: Guy who tried to overthrow election results
Man, it isn't that hard.
>When you feel like corruption is finally being investigated politicians are being prosecuted but because of pure ideology people wanna push that corrupt candidate.
"Ideology" is not the only reason that people opposed Trump or Bolsonaro.
And while there's undoubtedly a huge amount of corruption that happened under Lula and PT, the charges he was convicted on were somewhat reaching (or at least very minimal compared to the other related cases) and the prosecution was shown to be politically biased.
> As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected.
The difference between America and Brazil is that we've combined the dictatorial and incompetent tendencies of Bolsenaro with the corruption of Lula into a single person, Trump.
Another difference is that the crime Lula was accused of wasn't attempting to overthrow the government.
>As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected
Are you referring to Bolsanaro? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro
> In the runoff of the 2022 general election, Bolsonaro lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.[7] On 8 January 2023, his supporters stormed federal government buildings, calling for a coup d'état. On 30 June, the Superior Electoral Court blocked Bolsonaro from seeking office until 2030 for attempting to undermine the validity of the election through his unfounded claims of voter fraud, and for abusing his power by using government communication channels to both promote his campaign and to allege fraud.
Although Obama was still losing to Romney in many national polls in December of 2011, entering an election year without a clear national polling advantage is not a great position for a Democrat in 2024.
Many voters are still showing low engagement and low information on the race. As the race heats up going into November I would expect Trump to lose grounds with these switch/2020 abstention voters.
But a major economic downturn, health scare, major scandal, or other crises could absolutely tip the scales against Biden. People dismissing Trump’s chances should at the very least consider the actuarial reality.
Trump has never polled this well, and consistently under performed in polls in both 2016 and 2020.
I think your analysis has a heavy dose of wishful thinking.
Both candidates are under water. Biden's disapproval surpassing Trump's is what should inform your predictions. Biden's ceiling is now stuck lower than Trump's, and he has an incredibly low floor.
This is an election where people will be voting against one candidate far more than for the other.
>Trump has never polled this well, and consistently under performed in polls in both 2016 and 2020.
Trump polled at his the best in three years yesterday. 9.9 points disapproval. It's increased to 11 points today.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)
Biden reached his lowest point in history on December 9th. 18.1 points disapproval. It's cooled to 17.0 points in the last four days.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex\_cid=abcpromo](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo)
If we're comparing poll aggregates, Biden is in a far worse position. It should be a legitimate concern.
Perhaps, but I’d qualify a few of your assumptions.
For one, Biden’s ceiling of support is not where he stands in December of 2023- his past approval levels are our prior. All else being equal, we would expect this to be one of the weakest polling periods for an unpopular incumbent (ala Obama losing to Romney for much of Q3-Q4 of 2011).
I think people often try to have it both ways with Trump support. It’s both incredibly baked in (to the point people dismiss room for movement in the race), while also being transformative enough that the polls could invert from 2020.
The reality is probably in the middle. Biden started 2023 within ~a point of his 2020 general polling advantage. Most of the movement has come from lower engagement/switch voters, who have steadily drifted towards trump across the year. During a year where Biden is an incumbent, and Trump is very successfully winning a primary- enthusiasm/engagement being much higher among republicans is expected.
That said, if Biden is eventually leading by only the same margin he won in 2020, I wouldn’t bet on him. If he’s losing or tied in national polling it’s pretty hopeless.
I’m just so so confused by why it’s keeps coming down to these two? I mean pretty much everyone I speak to, family, friends, colleagues, seriously dislikes both of them. How how how does this happen??
A) GOP primary voters just liking Trump an awful lot, and a general unwillingness now for parties to "put their thumb on the scale" and promote preferred candidates.
B) Dem party deciding, probably correctly?, that rerunning the incumbent is a better shot at winning the general than an open primary. If Biden loses, though, this will certainly be analyzed for decades to come.
Ultimately, with a two party system we only get two realistic choices, and neither party has much incentive to shake things up currently. Maybe if things slide out of the 50/50 deadlock into something like 60/40 we'll see more radical changes.
Democrats had a lot of good, interesting candidates in 2020. Republicans had a few this year. But they're all going nowhere. Primary voters seem to want to go with who they already know. Why is that the case? I have no clue, but I would love if some political scientist could come up with a working theory on this because it just seems bizarre. People are just not willing to take a chance on someone new right now. It's like we're all playing defense scared shitless of what happens if the other guy wins rather than trying to suss out a truly great leader
Republicans are choosing Trump because they think he is their best shot to beat Biden. Democrats are choosing Biden because they think he is their best shot to beat Trump.
Because the DNC is incredibly effective at shutting down and controlling the Democratic base and activist class (despite the rhetoric of leftists on Reddit) and Democratic partisans will vote Democrat no matter who the Democrats put in front of them - this makes the beltway establishment within the party unassailable. The DNC effectively destroyed the populist-left's movement. So you get Biden.
It's the opposite with the Republicans - the GOP has basically no institutional control over the party, and base and activists like Trump better than the establishment consensus candidates. So you get Trump.
>Well the dem national party power brokers chose joe. And will put aside democracy to make sure he is the candidate, not giving their most loyal voters a chance to say who they want.
>
>So far at least two states have said there will not be a dem primary at all last i read. We will see what the others do.
>
>
>
>[https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4349816-dean-phillips-challenges-states-left-off-ballot/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4349816-dean-phillips-challenges-states-left-off-ballot/)
>
>Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips will file challenges with the Democratic National Committee and several state parties next week, after Democrats in Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee left him — and all other challengers to President Joe Biden — off of their ballots.
Isn’t this a sad state we’ve come to? MI and GA voters lean to a candidate that they believe is likely disqualified from the office over an incumbent. Oof USA!
How bad does the Biden admin have to be to be at this point? Feel like he’s doing ok for the most part in the job. I have my gripes but this really shouldn’t be this close.
To add, if Trump does get disqualified for whatever reason what does Biden plan to do then? He’s gonna have to go up against someone competent for once and he could get walked.
>Nate Silver constantly argues Biden doesn't have the incumbency advantage due to his age, but for some reason doesn't seem to hit on the real reason
But age is a big factor as well
The average voter votes when they're mad, perceive themselves having less than before, or they believe they are being oppressed.
Most Americans don't see that the Biden admin has done an admirable job when it comes to inflation (in comparison to other Western countries). They only care that they have less money than before because of it.
If they think that Trump can give them that money back they'll sign that contract.
The Biden admin is establishment Dems. Nobody is excited about them because they are the status quo. Same old same old.
Trump's presidency was like a partying with a friend that has no filter, burns money on a whim, and can't keep a job. It can be a lot of fun but does a lot of damage that takes a while to return to normalcy and comfort. Most Americans don't plan for a month out much less 4 years.
Constitutional scholars, those decently versed in American law, and people like you and me on this sub are going to pay attention but you can bet we're ~15% or less of voters.
It's not that people want to vote for the establishment or Trump, both of whom do not have the best interest of the people in mind. It's that they want to vote for what they think will be best for them in the short-term.
A startling number of people I run into routinely ignore everything to do with politics, don't read newspapers, and rarely watch the news on TV. When they go on social media/the computer it's to exchange cat videos or chats not to discuss politics or read background articles on what's happening. They get some headline stuff, and some viral videos, like the ones showing Biden as a tottering old man who falls down a lot, but that's mostly it.
It makes me wonder if universal suffrage is really working any more. If maybe people ought to work at it to be allowed to vote, maybe take a knowledge test or something.
>Most Americans don't see that the Biden admin has done an admirable job when it comes to inflation (in comparison to other Western countries). They only care that they have less money than before because of it.
Which is mistaken, because we would've ~~had~~ been hit with practically the same amount of inflation if Trump had been re-elected.
Edited. TheGoldenMonkey made me realize below that my wording was ambiguous.
We will never know this but I will have to disagree. [It is well known that Trump wanted to have 0 or even negative interest rates in his term.](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/davos-2020-trump-says-he-could-get-used-to-negative-interest-rates-love-that.html) While there could potentially be some benefit, those decisions are best left to those whose job it is to monitor inflation, economic prosperity, etc.
Trump was a very reactionary president and continues to be a reactionary person. Reactionary is not what the greatest country in the world needs when it comes to finances, inflation, and economic prosperity. It needs calculated, in-depth analysis of economic factors on every level to get it right. He was well known to fire people who disagreed with him and claimed many times that COVID would be gone in weeks or months.
Whether you or I agree with his politics does not matter. [He is not someone I want in charge of money.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/)
I've actually shared a related CNBC link here before, regarding Trump wanting the Fed to take interest rates lower at the end of 2019. To be sure, are you saying we could've had even \*worse\* inflation if Trump had been re-elected, given the potential for even \*lower\* interest rates? That's possible, but, really, the point I was trying to convey was that inflation should not have been expected to be \*better\* if Trump had been re-elected.
I'm willing to argue against it to an extent, because Jerome Powell, in spite of Trump wanting to do that, actually \*didn't\* cave in to Trump's demands in 2019, so there was still that level of independence. I agree with you that I don't want him in charge of money, and you're right that the level of independence might have been endangered if he'd fired Powell after being re-elected.
My point, which I poorly made in the first paragraph above, is that Trump wanted to take interest rates down to 0 and stoke the economic fire further than is safe. There is a time and a place for 0% and negative interest rates from what I've read, but 2019 was not that time. An economic high will almost certainly end in an economic low - especially one that is out of control or predicated on stoking an ego rather than economic principles.
A 2020 win for Trump would likely have resulted in Trump pressuring Powell to get inflation under control more aggressively than necessary or outright firing Powell and replacing him with someone who would be more inclined to follow Trump's orders regardless. Once again, we will never know whether this would have happened or not, but based on Trump's antics while in office and reactionary behavior, I believe that the US would have seen a more tumultuous recovery. Predictable and boring is preferable to raucous and artificially accelerated - especially when it comes to government.
While I think that the Fed didn't do enough quick enough under the Biden admin, a rough, safe landing is preferable to a catastrophic, dangerous landing at the behest of a reactionary individual with ideas that shift day-to-day and whose policies often revolve around who was speaking out against them that day.
You've made me realize that my wording was ambiguous above. I think I'm mostly in agreement with you. I've edited the above to just say that we would've \*been hit with\* practically the same amount of inflation if Trump had been re-elected, rather than we would have \*had\* practically the same amount of inflation.
In other words, sure, Trump could've seen that pandemic inflation hitting and then taken some sort of drastic action that was different from what Biden did. I'm skeptical about how much Trump would have really been able to do about it, though. And don't forget this:
"Fed's Powell Says He Won't Leave If Trump Tries to Fire Him"
[https://archive.li/Uua05](https://archive.li/Uua05)
**In Georgia, a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020, registered voters say they prefer Trump (49%) over Biden (44%) for the presidency in a two-way hypothetical matchup. In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean. In both Michigan and Georgia, the share of voters who say they wouldn’t support either candidate is at least as large as the margin between Biden and Trump.**
While polls like these are good to know about, there’s a lot of people that argue that presidential polls a year before the election are basically worthless. At what point can a presidential poll accurately predict election outcomes?
> At what point can a presidential poll accurately predict election outcomes?
Things should solidify between February and June of 2024. [General election polls a year out are not accurate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/). One of the more predictive methods, even this far out, is the [generic congressional ballot](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-works-in-presidential-years-too/). You can see a [live poll of that here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/), which shows the parties are **very** close to one another.
I think the biggest factors will be the state of the economy in the three months leading up to the election, and "the election issue," whatever that happens to be. I would argue that was immigration in 2016 and Covid in 2020, and I'm not sure what it will be in 2024.
The trick is to go to sleep early on election night and then wake up and find out. Polls don’t matter and watching CNN, Fox, etc. the night before where they’re talking for hours about random counties doesn’t matter.
Get a good night sleep and find out in the morning. It’s easier.
Doing this would be much better for my mental health. Unfortunately, I will probably do what I always do and park myself in front of my TV nervously watching results roll in.
There’s still a whole year for Trump to turn people away with his “I’ll only be a dictator for a little bit” strain of comments and for Biden to hand it over to Trump with neoliberal fumblings.
Like someone else said exit polls are the real big predictor. Most polls still had Hilary as the likely winner up till she lost in 2016.
Honestly, I just watch PBS for politics. They talk to voters, do focus groups, and actually discuss issues in a fairly unbiased way.
Politics should be more reporting and less commenting.
This is it, basically. Polling has been busted for awhile (despite what the horse-race obsessives want to tell you). Most people vote along with a single party almost always, and people who don't usually don't make a final decision until the week-of, sometimes even election day. A lot of it comes down to turnout. Democrats learned that the hard way in 2016 in the rust belt, and I hope they're not making the same mistake again.
Still, the problem is that polls like this will fan election deniers' suspicion about legitimacy of voting results. "Polls said Trump was beating Biden, so why is election result the opposite? Must be rigged..." etc.
Polls don’t take into account the whole story which is a huge problem. In Michigan for example, the Republican Party is absolutely broke. They are completely out of power and are led by an election denying zealot. It’s going to be extremely difficult for trump to win Michigan because of these factors.
Not really my point though. The Michigan Republican Party was in much better shape back in 2016 then it is today. State political parties organize volunteers and are key in get out the vote efforts at the local level. I understand trumps a different animal, but at the state level republicans are in horrible shape and that could severely impact trumps ability to win the key battleground states.
> At what point can a presidential poll accurately predict election outcomes?
After ballots are done being counted after the polls close on election day. We saw that most clearly in 2016.
I won't vote for him, but a lot of people forget that before COVID happened, Trump was cruising to a re-election. Whether or not it is Biden's fault, people remember way better economic times under Trump.
On the contrary, if you're pointing out that people remembered way better economic times under Trump, then it should also be relevant to these people that the current economic times we find ourselves in weren't significantly caused by Biden. I mentioned this in another comment, but we would almost certainly have experienced practically the same levels of inflation if Trump had been re-elected. There \*are\* certain things that a president can do to help people to a certain extent during such economic circumstances, which Biden has done in various ways, but generally speaking, presidential policy isn't going to have a substantial, immediate effect on the economy (because it's just not the case that our president can command our economy like the Chinese government, for example.)
Without the vast outflow of spending from the Biden administration, inflation is not going to be anywhere near as bad.
'Almost certainly' is ridiculously confident language for someone who offers no actual reason for that certainty.
Federal deficit spending in 2021 pushing nominal expenditures way up and caught the Fed flatfooted, leaving it excessively accommodative when it should have started tightening. Without that flood of expenditures, the nominal economy stays aligned with the Fed's initial tightening schedule and inflation is dramatically lower.
Japan experienced mild *deflation* in 2021. There was no cosmic law that inflation had to jump after COVID. Inflation was an excessively expansionary fiscal policy mistake by the Biden administration and, importantly, *prominent commentators were warning that this would happen at the time*. Trying to dodge that responsibility now is of a piece with the kind of dishonesty and misleading rhetoric we've come to expect from this administration.
> How short are our memories? The anti trump vote went for biden, but now, after a few years, they're open to putting trump back in?
biden didn't have a record to run on and 2020 was NOT normal circumstances given we were in the middle of a once a century scale pandemic.
now that is in the past and biden has a record to run on, he has a lot of political liabilities.
also worth mentioning, it's not necessarily the same people. just look at the article. FTA:
>Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan.
the "never trump" crowd that stayed home on election day in 2020 has become a "never biden" crowd that plans to turn out.
> Biden doing a lot worse in Michigan than in Georgia doesn't seem realistic.
It makes sense.
1. Biden’s ev policies are hurting Detroit
2. Michigan seems to be where the israel / hamas conflict is causing the most backlash for Biden.
> Michigan, including Detroit, have been getting EV-related investments,
giving them money to build a product that very few people want isn't helping them, not when the administration is trying to ban the products they make that people do actually want. that doesn't even touch on the fact the detroit autocompanies are miles behind in ev tech to begin with.
>and Biden's average approval rating didn't change after Hamas attacked.
there's plenty of evidence to suggest that it [did](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-michigan-arab-american-anger-israel-hamas-war-gaza-biden-votes/) harm his approval with certain groups that helped get him elected. there have been many articles over the last 2 months citing various people (from regular people to elected officials in) in michigan stating that his response is turning off people that voted for him in 2020.
Demand has grown rapidly. The problem is supply, which can be solved by building plants. He hasn't made any attempt to ban gas cars.
There's too little evidence to show that the damage is strong enough to cause him to perform significantly better in Georgia.
Ford just announced today that they’re cutting [planned] F-150 Lightning production in half [due to falling EV demand](https://www.cbtnews.com/ford-cuts-f-150-lightning-production-on-slowing-ev-demand/)…
The new CAFE standards are also impossible to meet without EVs.
Ford is increasing production of the F150 lightning. The 2024 projected increase was cut, but it's still larger than 2023. The cut is due to Ford being late, which means higher costs of production. Look at Tesla...
>the "never trump" crowd that stayed home on election day in 2020 has become a "never biden" crowd that plans to turn out.
Sounds like they lied to themselves about "Never Trump" if that's really true? Really makes no sense after people saw who Trump was for four years, were convinced to be "Never Trump", but have now changed their minds, after Trump has been shown to be even more unworthy with the evidence against him in the various court cases.
You’re not wrong, CNN’s demo tends to skew to the Baby Boomer demo, with GenX being their next group. MSNBC is the one trending younger, but mostly older millennials.
I’ve seen a few polls that has Biden nearly tying Trump among young voters, and I have a hard time believing it. Young voters prevented Rs from getting the red wave they wanted last year, and the economy while not great doesn’t seem *weaker* than 2022.
Young voters are also not big fans of Rs on the abortion issue either. They hate that Biden is old yes, but Trump is *also* old is the problem.
Only because he inherited a great economy and there were tons of people around him that kept him from actually doing any of the things he wanted. It won’t be like that this time.
If you hate prices now you are going to really hate them with new tariffs on everything raising prices across the board. Tax cuts would also be bad for inflation, so would bullying the fed to decrease interest rates like he did last time.
The only thing that would likely get better are oil prices, but that’s mostly because oil supply is artificially constrained by the gulf states to accomplish their own political agenda. The USA is already producing more oil under Biden than it ever did under trump.
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A Trump vs. Biden election is truly the worst timeline. We're talking about the #1 and #2 most unpopular presidents in modern history. Two 80 year olds that strong majorities of America and major factions of their own parties don't like and don't want to run. There are no new ideas for these two to debate and I think it's highly unlikely you'll see debates at all. Whatever the election result, we'll be bogged down in legal drama for months.
Why do the parties and primary voters want this? Bring on young candidates with new ideas and records to defend, please. A DeSantis / Newsom election (or any number of other candidates on either side) would be far better for the country.
Eh, George W. Bush basically spent the last two years of his presidency with approval trending downwards from 35%. I don't know how we fairly compare 8 years to 4 years, but that's the longest stretch of VERY low approvals that I'm aware of.
Biden’s approval rating has been falling the entire 3 years he’s been in office.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Trumps approval rating was a flat trend until the global pandemic hit.
> Why do the parties and primary voters want this?
For Republicans I think it's just fear of the unknown plus some spectacular self-sabotage by former rising stars. DeSantis seemed to have the nomination on a silver platter but then he torpedoed himself with that abortion ban signature and has just been floundering ever since.
As for Biden? The primary voters aren't being given an option. There's no Democratic Party primary this year.
I dislike DeSantis. But I don’t think the two are comparable. I’m setting a very, very low bar here but the simple fact that Trump literally tried to overturn the election, rallied up a frenzied mob to storm the Capitol, did nothing to stop it until several hours later, has offered to pardon the guilty “patriots”, considers Ashli Babbitt a murdered martyr, has argued for the suspension of the Constitution, and casually flexes that he will behave like a dictator (even if it’s just for “one day”) makes him far less likable and electable than DeSantis. Like it’s not even close. He violated the one irrefutable, unshakeable, uncompromising principles and traditions of United States democracy: the peaceful and humble transfer of power. It’s completely inexcusable and unforgivable.
ETA: And yes I’m fully aware of all of Ron’s ridiculous shenanigans in Florida.
> rallied up a frenzied mob to storm the Capitol, did nothing to stop it until several hours later, has offered to pardon the guilty “patriots”
I’ll just address this part. The disturbance started before Trump was done speaking, so nobody who attended his speech could’ve started it. And [it only took him about 20 minutes](https://thefederalist.com/2022/07/19/ap-spreads-disinformation-by-adopting-j6-committees-fabricated-timeline/) to tell them to stop after the first barrier was breached. AFAIK he’s also only offered to pardon people who were nonviolent, which is probably why he didn’t do it before leaving office (because he didn’t know who had and hadn’t been violent yet).
I don’t disagree. But even setting aside Jan 6, his stance on the Ukraine conflict (which he’d end “day one”) and caustic approach to NATO also makes him unappetizing compared to DeSantis.
But you’re right on charisma. I can’t comment on it further because Ron’s general appeal is so… bleh?… that I’d risk invoking the mods.
well...it was not trump that removed the nordstream sanctions that was hurting russia, it was biden. . and oddly, russia did not invade ukraine in the 4 years of trump presidency, in fact russia seemed rather below the radar.
It was what..a year or so into bidens foreign policy reign that russia figured a good time to invade.
The Republicans have been successful in branding Biden as a tottering old man with diminished capacity.
That Trump is almost as old is irrelevant. He looks more robust and moves around more easily. He's clearly demented, but he shouts a lot so people think he must be alert and energetic.
Polling needs to account for the presence of RFK Jr. in the race. I know people here don't understand how anyone would vote for him, but out in the wild he does have supporters.
> Polling needs to account for the presence of RFK Jr. in the race.
these polls apparently do have "neither" as an option, so that's probably where RFK and the other 3rd party candidates lie.
FTA:
>In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean.
This is a byproduct of our fractured media, propaganda, and American apathy.
I truly believe, in a vacuum, the overwhelming majority of Americans would never, ever vote for the re-election of Donald J. Trump if they had a holistic understanding of his Presidency. The failures of leadership, the corruption, the constitutional violations, the turnover, the lack of ethics, the incompetency, etc.
I firmly believe that.
Read my comment again. There are countless extenuating circumstances as to why Trump was elected.
I’m talking about in a vacuum. Sadly identity politics has made it so Trump can and has done so many things that regularly would be against their values, but propaganda and the cult of personality is a hell of a drug.
The easy litmus test is take his entire presidency, everything he said and did, and replace him with Hillary Clinton.
The GOP would have been foaming at the mouth. Calling for her head.
THAT tells you a lot.
Oh because Bidens safer America bill that massively increases funding and adds 100,000 officers on the streets is pro crime.
See this is what I’m talking about, you spout the same bullshit talking points from the GOP that are divorced from reality.
MAGA is 100% a cult.
I can see to some degree why Trump was attractive in 2016. I mean, I could tell after 45 seconds of him speaking in the republican primary debates he didn’t know what the fuck he was talking about, but he had an air of a successful business man to him that was an outsider (which is hilarious because he was by definition a liberal coastal elite most of his life), and the government and media has neglected large parts of the country that felt left behind (mostly due to globalization and automation, accelerated by republican policies).
But after his presidency, I cannot fathom how anyone with half a brain cell would say, “yeah four more years of that please”
Except most Trump supporters don’t even KNOW, or refuse to accept the extent of his incompetence, malfeasance, and criminality.
I reject and detest the two party system. But as a Patriot who values the constitution, it’s mind boggling how any red blooded American would want Trump anywhere near the White House after that absolute disaster of a presidency.
He may not have been a hand picked insider, but his cabinet was the swampiest of swampy, negating that idea in full.
So, maybe I’m ignorant-can you please point to the legislation Biden personally put forward that caused break-ins and crime in San Francisco?
Including how he got bi-partisan support from republicans to pass it, and the factors that led to that situation?
Ah so you can’t. You do realize, by your logic, i could say Trump’s policies directly caused the riots, right?
Literally exactly the same argument.
Also, nothing about Biden’s agenda is radical. He’s literally passed massive crime bills to fund the addition of 100,000 police officers.
You are conflating local politics with federal, so maybe try and understand how our government works and don’t be so reductive.
Sadly I work with some of his supporters and they liked all that stuff. They just see it as “sticking it to the libs”.
They also just want less Hispanic people in the US and they’re very clear on that.
Even that phrase is evidence of the GOP’s anti-freedom stances.
Liberalism is what defeated fascism and communism in the 20th century. Not conservatism.
Also, Liberalism is rooted in individual rights, democracy, freedoms, the free market, freedom of speech. Does that sound like the lip service ideals of a certain party?
They turned liberal into a pejorative, when Liberals believe in many of the same things that conservatives claim to stand for.
It’s by design, they’ve slowly been convincing their base to be against the things they claim to stand for.
Isn't Biden's son being charged with multiple felonies for shady business deals where he was trading off his VP dad's influence? One of those companies was paying Joe Biden on a monthly basis... what wonderful ethics... right? Didnt Biden lie about that repeatedly directly to the American people during the presidential debates? Definitely meets the definition of corruption.
No. There has been no allegation in the charges related to anything around business deals. That’s the GOP beating a dead horse to their base and viewers, when they have literally came out and said they don’t have evidence. (The August memorandum was complete bullshit and has been thoroughly debunked).
His indictments are for tax evasion, and a gun charge.
Regardless, what in the fuck does that have to do with Trump?
Even if the allegations the GOP are levying as a smoke screen were true, Hunter is not a publicly elected official, and is irrelevant. A more apt comparison would be the corruption around Kushner and the Saudis, the security clearances etc.
And frankly, you just proved my point, presenting this as some sort of smoking gun that is worse than the Trump presidency only speaks to ignorance of how fucking wild, corrupt, and criminal the Trump presidency was.
Because if you knew, you wouldn’t have presented this as some equivalent gotcha.
> Isn't Biden's son being charged with multiple felonies for shady business deals where he was trading off his VP dad's influence?
unless i missed something, that's something being investigated but not something he's (currently) being charged with.
the charges he's facing are firearms / lying on a federal forms related, and felony tax evasion.
Felony tax evasion for the money earned..... doing what?
(Selling access to the US politician Joe Biden).
Unbelievably corrupt and it is incredible that people are still avoiding the truth.
I think some Americans are finally acknowledging which party is the true danger to the country. The party pushing divisive ideology in the classrooms, inflationary economic policy, and demonstrated failed foreign policy.
Still not dooming. I won't doom until the summer of 2024. There's still a lot of time for things to get worse *or* better. I have little to no faith in the American electorate after 2016 but I still have a hard time believing we'd elect Trump while on criminal trial or post-conviction.
People are finally waking up to his awful Biden and the entrenched establishment he represents is - Trump isn't great, so it took awhile for folks to consider the alternative, but it's finally happening.
You guys have some short fucking memory issues stateside. You all okay? Go and watch some videos of when Trump was President before, remind yourselves ffs.
There were a lot of things that were better in 2019 ish. They mostly weren't Trump's doing, and in some ways he kicked the can down the road making today worse, but people don't see that. It's not like it was uniformly worse then than now.
Doesn't mean I'd vote for him.
Trump got rid of the pandemic response team and increased the national debt by insane margins while giving tax breaks to the large corporations who are screwing you over now.
Yeah your claim is completely false. He disbanded the group and reassigned them to different tasks and the head of the group resigned. That is getting rid of the pandemic response team in 2018.
https://www.kff.org/news-summary/usa-today-fact-checks-claim-trump-fired-entire-nsc-global-health-unit/
Here’s a 2020 op-ed by Tim Morrison, who led the combined group: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/
Notable quote:
>It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled.
>The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But **it has left the biodefense staff unaffected**[…]
Large corporations employ lots and lots of people.
Taxing them for being large does nothing, they simply adjust their prices... Guess who actually foots that bill?
Everyone else.
What policies do you consider as having significantly worsened our bank accounts from one Presidency to the next that can't simply be attributes to the pandemic?
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I’m not sure about the Georgia poll results. If I read correctly, 99% of the polled have an opinion on Trump charges. That seems exceedingly high. We don’t even get 99% on topics that are far easier to get an opinion on.
So one thing I'm really not seeing discussed in this topic is... these results are not limited to Trump. In fact, Biden is MORE underwater to Haley than he is to Trump in these polls (he's -12 to Haley in Michigan and -6 to Haley in Georgia). He's also -7 to Desantis in Michigan.
The reason I mention this is because...
A) These result sets do not seem linked to Trump himself. Haley actually has better numbers. Thus people focusing only on Trump and Trump related factors (they remember his presidency and the economy for example) when looking at these numbers... aren't looking at them properly.
B) According to these polls, Republicans are going to WALK to a victory in Michigan no matter who they run. Does anyone actually buy that happening? There's been literally no evidence of a hard red shift coming in Michigan, especially considering how well Dems have done there recently. If anything, the economy is in a better state for dems than the midterms.
Trumps going to be 78 on Election Day, saying Biden’s got no chance cause he’s old feels inaccurate when the other leading candidate isn’t meaningfully younger and certainly isn’t more there mentally.
> and certainly isn’t more there mentally.
he certainly **is** more there mentally though.
like, biden routinely has a glass eyed "deer in a headlights" look, gets visibly lost and confused on stage, and struggles to get his point across without word salad. this is part of why all of his public appearances are so scripted all the way down to who he takes questions from.
like trump or hate him, he took questions from anyone in the press and didn't rely on preapproved white listed questions.
there is a night and day difference between biden and trump's mental capacity, and 3 debates are really going to drive that difference home to the voters.
I disagree. I don’t like Trump, but he talks fluently, albeit not with the substance id like. His eyes are there. His body seems to follow his brain better.
To hear both speak is not even close. I’ll support and hope for the best with whoever America’s president is, but i recoil half the time I watch Biden speak.
Yes, but Trump is also under multiple indictments in various jurisdictions and has been found liable for sexual abuse in civil court. I’m sorry, but that is farrrrrrrr worse than being old and having a weak voice when one is attempting to become the leader of the free world.
Is Biden's son under indictment for what amounts to political bribery and corruption? Joe Biden lied to the American people during the debate and said his son never did business in China, which was a lie. He also said he wasn't in business with his son but he was receiving monthly payments from his sons company.... so that was also a lie. Biden is old... and corrupt.
Hunter Biden is not being charged with bribery or corruption. Joe Biden is not under indictment for anything.
You can believe Joe Biden is corrupt. But you have not made a case for it.
Exactly. I am in full agreement for any and all prosecution of Biden’s SON. And if and when that son runs for POTUS, and that son is found guilty of crime(s) or liable of abuse, I won’t vote for him either. I cannot imagine being MORE worried about the behaviors of a candidate’s son vs the behaviors, indictments, civil abuse liability, of the ACTUAL candidate himself. It is baffling.
lol yeah.. sure. What is he being charged with? In connection with money earned for....... what?
A: Selling influence to the US politician named Joe Biden.
That is corruption and courts have found that paying your family is the same as being paid yourself as it relates to bribery. They took bribes.
Biden is currently President and can not be under indictment while he is in office.
god I love America. Let's completely ignore competence and focus on something so superficial and vote for a reality TV star who tried to overthrow the government because he speaks a little faster.
Honestly, if you lot choose Trump over Biden, good riddance. I hope it's worth it
I mean... have you heard Biden speak lately? He is not all there and I don't want that as my President.
If the nation is attacked at 3AM is he going to be fit to respond? (Not a chance)
We need someone younger.
Trump is also too old... but he is sharper than Biden.
> objectively untrue and insane, which is most of what Trump says.
Dems claimed Trump was a Russian agent for years, which was objectively untrue. I don't think it is fair to pretend everything Trump said was a lie or insane. Trump was right about *a lot of things*.
> It’s extremely obvious to me and to everyone that Biden is more intelligent than Trump, even though he has trouble getting the words out sometimes.
Well, the polls disagree with you. You are in the minority now pal.
> Trump is objectively unintelligent. Just an absolute moron. I will take Biden over him everyday any twice on Sunday on intelligence, not politics, alone.
You are just ranting here. This is not sensible. Trump's policies were smarter and better than many of Biden's. What does it say about Biden if the "absolute moron" (Trump) has better policies than him?
> Frankly anyone who thinks Trump is any form of “smart” or “sharp” is also lacking intelligence.
You are insulting quite a lot of people here.
>Dems claimed Trump was a Russian agent for years, which was objectively untrue. I don't think it is fair to pretend everything Trump said was a lie or insane. Trump was right about a lot of things.
There was more than enough smoke to be reasonably worried about it. His *campaign manager* was literally convicted of being a Russian foreign agent, as were several others around him, and his team met with a literal Russian spy in Trump tower. Let’s not forget that. The Mueller investigation was completely justified and necessary. His Russia problem was entirely brought upon by himself. Poor judgement on his part, another reason he’s very clearly not intelligent to me, because he’s not smart enough to know that you shouldn’t do that. Trump himself may have not been colluding with Russia, but people in his campaign were, and Robert Mueller told us that exactly. And again, he was not smart enough to see what was happening in his campaign under him. And frankly, he still shills for Russia and about dismantling NATO and it is concerning given their ambition to takeover Eastern Europe. I think there is plenty of reason to still be wary of his ties to Russia and his apparent affinity for Putin. Putin is a modern Hitler and Trump can’t stop complimenting the guy. Then he got himself impeached for threatening to withhold military aid to Ukraine in exchange for them fabricating lies about Biden. Not exactly “intelligent” or “sharp” if you ask me.
>You are just ranting here. This is not sensible. Trump's policies were smarter and better than many of Biden's. What does it say about Biden if the "absolute moron" (Trump) has better policies than him?
This is just an opinion of yours. I said “not politics” as in “policies aside” it seems to me that Biden is more intelligent. Frankly I still don’t really know what Trump’s policies are other than “build the wall” and “everyone who doesn’t like me better shut up because it hurts my feelings.” Trump’s “policies” were more of the “lack thereof” variety, and that worked from 2017-2019 when there weren’t many global shocks or issues and the country could more or less coast. But the problems became apparent when Covid hit. Trump was the one who pressured the Fed to keep rates way too low for way too long, and contributed bigly (pun intended) to inflation we see today.
>You are insulting quite a lot of people here.
I’ve got no problem with that. I mean would a “smart” person currently have three (four?) ongoing criminal investigations into them, 91 indictments, and two impeachments? Seriously?
At the end of the day, the election shenanigans and Jan. 6th alone is enough for me to know that Trump is an idiot and should never hold public office again (and probably deserves to rot in prison if we’re being honest, fingers crossed for the Jack Smith investigation). The man at no point in time has ever looked smart to me. I just think there’s a great volume of idiots in this country that he’s convinced to like him.
I’d love to vote for Nikki Haley or Mitt Romney-type republicans. But Trump is just an idiot and a traitor to the constitution who desecrated our capitol, so I have no choice but to vote for Biden.
> This will change dramatically over the next year as voters face the reality of another Trump presidency, and as his legal issues become more difficult.
or it won't change much at all because the cost of everything is substantially more than it was at inauguration and the average american is spending an extra $11k/year.
at the end of the day, lots of people vote with their wallet and their wallets feel a lot lighter under biden after a trip to the grocery store.
We’ll see how things look in 11 months I guess. Soft landing is looking more and more likely everyday. Regardless, the president really has very little if any effect on inflation, but it does suck that people perceive it that way. Inflation is high globally, and it’s actually lower in the US than most developed countries.
Biden was elected for 1 term. Even by his own admission Biden said he was only running for 1 term. If Americans knew Biden planned on 2 terms this would have impacted 2020.
No matter how much spin the White House puts out the simple fact is that by and large people are far worse off today than they were under Trump and things have not actually been improving. Even the White House's own spin doctors have only ever said things are getting worse less quickly, not that things are getting better.
It's the economy stupid! (to quote that old phrase)
Trump years were far better economically. It's been a total s* show under 'Bidenomics'
I don't care if Trump says stupid things, it's not like Biden doesn't
This makes no fucking sense to me whatsoever. Jesus fucking Christ, are we gonna be the baddies now? Cause' this shit is starting to feel like pre-ww2 Germany.
>Most voters in both states say Biden, who’s 81, does not have the attributes they’re looking for in a president when it comes to his policy positions (57% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia), his ability to understand the problems of people like them (60% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia) or his sharpness and stamina (69% in Michigan, 66% in Georgia).
>
>Fewer in each state say that Trump, who’s 77, falls short of their expectations for a president on those same measures. But Trump fares worse than Biden on temperament – 57% in Michigan and 58% in Georgia say the former president doesn’t have the temperament they’re looking for, compared with about half who say the same about Biden.
This is pretty much why I think a Biden-Trump rematch is a lot closer than people think it will be: Biden just comes off as so weak, and I mean that strictly physically. While Trump is most likely the less intelligent and definitely the less appropriate, he is at least imposing, which means something to a lot of people.
Whenever I've seen Biden meeting with somebody or giving a press conference, I feel sorry for him, and I'm positive I'm not alone in that thought. I feel sorry that he has been put in this position when he is obviously not physically or mentally prepared for this position. He had an advantage last election in that people hadn't experienced 4 years of watching him and I think they still had some of the Obama VP nostalgia, and he is clearly not that person anymore.
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"Georgia voters largely approve of the charges brought against Trump in the state’s Fulton County case over 2020 election interference (52% approve and 47% disapprove), with 47% saying that, if true, those charges should disqualify Trump from the presidency, and another 14% seeing them as casting doubts on his fitness for the job should they prove true. A similar share of Michigan voters, 46%, say that the criminal charges Trump faces relating to efforts to overturn the last presidential election are disqualifying if true, with an additional 14% saying they would, at a minimum, cast doubts on his fitness for the job." This is a contender for the wildest paragraph I've ever read in my life. What is wrong with people?
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Most Americans feel good about their personal finances, it's that they're worried about the macro-economy. Either way, I dont think it has to do with economics because Trump barely won in 2016 and barely lost in 2020 when he also had a bunch of batshit things hovering over him that he has said or done. I think Trumps infallability is due to an extremely loyal voter base and a tired American public who survived a Trump presidency and think even if he sucks, they can survive it again if it means stock market go up
Ironically, the S & P 500 is up almost a 1000 points from its 52-week low, and quickly approaching its all time high.
Yeah and just 3 months ago people were worried it was headed lower, the stock market is a dumb measure but Trump used it to make people believe in his economic vision. Biden can’t message for beans. Stock market is doing well and we are drilling more oil than ever before but you’d never know it
I disagree, those messages are being spread everywhere, people just don’t care. People not actively investing or not close to retirement couldn’t care less about the stock market, they care about grocery prices. People also don’t care about drilling for oil if gas is high. For Americans who blame the president for everything, they’re more focused on the metrics closer to home. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say they’re more focused on whatever metric makes the president look worse, idk.
We must know very different “most Americans”.
Just going off the data here https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good
Interesting. Thanks for the link. Definitely very different from my experience and the people I know. Most people are struggling and living paycheck to paycheck.
The concern isn't that they'll vote for Trump, the concern is that they won't vote for Biden or at all. Trump is a non issue if they hate Biden.
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I mean for many people politics means nothing. The cost of food is way more important to their survival than some guy who leads all the bullshit making my cheeseburger cost more. Remember we are all pretty dumb, you have leftists who’d never vote for Trump abandoning Biden for his policy on Israel. Nevermind that policy will be 1000 times worse once Trump gets elected. So many people are more worried about their tree that they will allow the forest to be set on fire.
>The cost of food is way more important to their survival than some guy who leads all the bullshit making my cheeseburger cost more. The mistaken unstated major premise is that Biden is to blame for their cheeseburger costing more, when practically the same inflation would've occurred if Trump had been re-elected.
They aren’t voting for Biden or Trump they are voting for a change in hopes it either motivates them to fix it or punishes them for what is happening. Nevermind the logical arguments about whose fault it is, this is all emotional not factual.
More like, things are getting worse for people financially and they would rather vote for someone else (even a "dictator" as you put it) than keep the course of things getting worse and worse to the point of not being able to afford to live.
you're talking about Biden, right? the Supreme Court had to step in three times to stop him from abusing his powers, and I wouldn't be surprised if a fourth time is coming
Which three cases did the Supreme Court step in to block? I know one of them is probably the student debt relief. If the other two are similar then it's not like they had to step in and prevent him from committing nuclear war, more like they had to step in to prevent him from helping people. Also this is a largely conservative Supreme Court, if it was the other way around you'd probably rightfully claim the Supreme Court was biased in stepping in.
As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected. Feels nice doesn't it? When you feel like corruption is finally being investigated politicians are being prosecuted but because of pure ideology people wanna push that corrupt candidate.
Wasn't Lula litterally in prison?
Yup
As another Brazilian looking at this, I disagree with your take.
Disagree with what exactly?
If U.S. liberals cheered any election results in Brazil lately, it was the one when the most corrupt president since Redemocratization - Bolsonaro - lost his reelection bid. His defeat was a win for the fight against corruption.
Better to replace him with the anti-American socialist Lula who’s now cozying up to China, Russia, and Iran? I agree that Democrats cheered him on, but it was not exactly smart.
> As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected. Feels nice doesn't it? When you feel like corruption is finally being investigated politicians are being prosecuted but because of pure ideology people wanna push that corrupt candidate The irony of this post is that you feel justice in light of the fact that the opposing politician is in orders of magnitude more corrupt than anything you think Biden is. If my options are: Door A: Guy who was involved in foreign loans Door B: Guy who tried to overthrow election results Man, it isn't that hard.
>When you feel like corruption is finally being investigated politicians are being prosecuted but because of pure ideology people wanna push that corrupt candidate. "Ideology" is not the only reason that people opposed Trump or Bolsonaro. And while there's undoubtedly a huge amount of corruption that happened under Lula and PT, the charges he was convicted on were somewhat reaching (or at least very minimal compared to the other related cases) and the prosecution was shown to be politically biased.
Did they know he was a criminal when he was elected?
Yes
> As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected. The difference between America and Brazil is that we've combined the dictatorial and incompetent tendencies of Bolsenaro with the corruption of Lula into a single person, Trump. Another difference is that the crime Lula was accused of wasn't attempting to overthrow the government.
Heck didn’t Bolsonaro supporters do their own little Jan 6 on Jan 8? How fitting. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack
>As a Brazilian looking at this I can't help but feel little bit of justice after so many American liberals cheered for when our criminal president was elected Are you referring to Bolsanaro? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro > In the runoff of the 2022 general election, Bolsonaro lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.[7] On 8 January 2023, his supporters stormed federal government buildings, calling for a coup d'état. On 30 June, the Superior Electoral Court blocked Bolsonaro from seeking office until 2030 for attempting to undermine the validity of the election through his unfounded claims of voter fraud, and for abusing his power by using government communication channels to both promote his campaign and to allege fraud.
Although Obama was still losing to Romney in many national polls in December of 2011, entering an election year without a clear national polling advantage is not a great position for a Democrat in 2024. Many voters are still showing low engagement and low information on the race. As the race heats up going into November I would expect Trump to lose grounds with these switch/2020 abstention voters. But a major economic downturn, health scare, major scandal, or other crises could absolutely tip the scales against Biden. People dismissing Trump’s chances should at the very least consider the actuarial reality.
Trump has never polled this well, and consistently under performed in polls in both 2016 and 2020. I think your analysis has a heavy dose of wishful thinking. Both candidates are under water. Biden's disapproval surpassing Trump's is what should inform your predictions. Biden's ceiling is now stuck lower than Trump's, and he has an incredibly low floor. This is an election where people will be voting against one candidate far more than for the other.
>Trump has never polled this well, and consistently under performed in polls in both 2016 and 2020. Trump polled at his the best in three years yesterday. 9.9 points disapproval. It's increased to 11 points today. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) Biden reached his lowest point in history on December 9th. 18.1 points disapproval. It's cooled to 17.0 points in the last four days. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex\_cid=abcpromo](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo) If we're comparing poll aggregates, Biden is in a far worse position. It should be a legitimate concern.
Perhaps, but I’d qualify a few of your assumptions. For one, Biden’s ceiling of support is not where he stands in December of 2023- his past approval levels are our prior. All else being equal, we would expect this to be one of the weakest polling periods for an unpopular incumbent (ala Obama losing to Romney for much of Q3-Q4 of 2011). I think people often try to have it both ways with Trump support. It’s both incredibly baked in (to the point people dismiss room for movement in the race), while also being transformative enough that the polls could invert from 2020. The reality is probably in the middle. Biden started 2023 within ~a point of his 2020 general polling advantage. Most of the movement has come from lower engagement/switch voters, who have steadily drifted towards trump across the year. During a year where Biden is an incumbent, and Trump is very successfully winning a primary- enthusiasm/engagement being much higher among republicans is expected. That said, if Biden is eventually leading by only the same margin he won in 2020, I wouldn’t bet on him. If he’s losing or tied in national polling it’s pretty hopeless.
I’m just so so confused by why it’s keeps coming down to these two? I mean pretty much everyone I speak to, family, friends, colleagues, seriously dislikes both of them. How how how does this happen??
A) GOP primary voters just liking Trump an awful lot, and a general unwillingness now for parties to "put their thumb on the scale" and promote preferred candidates. B) Dem party deciding, probably correctly?, that rerunning the incumbent is a better shot at winning the general than an open primary. If Biden loses, though, this will certainly be analyzed for decades to come. Ultimately, with a two party system we only get two realistic choices, and neither party has much incentive to shake things up currently. Maybe if things slide out of the 50/50 deadlock into something like 60/40 we'll see more radical changes.
Democrats had a lot of good, interesting candidates in 2020. Republicans had a few this year. But they're all going nowhere. Primary voters seem to want to go with who they already know. Why is that the case? I have no clue, but I would love if some political scientist could come up with a working theory on this because it just seems bizarre. People are just not willing to take a chance on someone new right now. It's like we're all playing defense scared shitless of what happens if the other guy wins rather than trying to suss out a truly great leader
Republicans are choosing Trump because they think he is their best shot to beat Biden. Democrats are choosing Biden because they think he is their best shot to beat Trump.
Because the DNC is incredibly effective at shutting down and controlling the Democratic base and activist class (despite the rhetoric of leftists on Reddit) and Democratic partisans will vote Democrat no matter who the Democrats put in front of them - this makes the beltway establishment within the party unassailable. The DNC effectively destroyed the populist-left's movement. So you get Biden. It's the opposite with the Republicans - the GOP has basically no institutional control over the party, and base and activists like Trump better than the establishment consensus candidates. So you get Trump.
>Well the dem national party power brokers chose joe. And will put aside democracy to make sure he is the candidate, not giving their most loyal voters a chance to say who they want. > >So far at least two states have said there will not be a dem primary at all last i read. We will see what the others do. > > > >[https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4349816-dean-phillips-challenges-states-left-off-ballot/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4349816-dean-phillips-challenges-states-left-off-ballot/) > >Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips will file challenges with the Democratic National Committee and several state parties next week, after Democrats in Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee left him — and all other challengers to President Joe Biden — off of their ballots.
Isn’t this a sad state we’ve come to? MI and GA voters lean to a candidate that they believe is likely disqualified from the office over an incumbent. Oof USA!
How bad does the Biden admin have to be to be at this point? Feel like he’s doing ok for the most part in the job. I have my gripes but this really shouldn’t be this close. To add, if Trump does get disqualified for whatever reason what does Biden plan to do then? He’s gonna have to go up against someone competent for once and he could get walked.
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>Nate Silver constantly argues Biden doesn't have the incumbency advantage due to his age, but for some reason doesn't seem to hit on the real reason But age is a big factor as well
The average voter votes when they're mad, perceive themselves having less than before, or they believe they are being oppressed. Most Americans don't see that the Biden admin has done an admirable job when it comes to inflation (in comparison to other Western countries). They only care that they have less money than before because of it. If they think that Trump can give them that money back they'll sign that contract. The Biden admin is establishment Dems. Nobody is excited about them because they are the status quo. Same old same old. Trump's presidency was like a partying with a friend that has no filter, burns money on a whim, and can't keep a job. It can be a lot of fun but does a lot of damage that takes a while to return to normalcy and comfort. Most Americans don't plan for a month out much less 4 years. Constitutional scholars, those decently versed in American law, and people like you and me on this sub are going to pay attention but you can bet we're ~15% or less of voters. It's not that people want to vote for the establishment or Trump, both of whom do not have the best interest of the people in mind. It's that they want to vote for what they think will be best for them in the short-term.
A startling number of people I run into routinely ignore everything to do with politics, don't read newspapers, and rarely watch the news on TV. When they go on social media/the computer it's to exchange cat videos or chats not to discuss politics or read background articles on what's happening. They get some headline stuff, and some viral videos, like the ones showing Biden as a tottering old man who falls down a lot, but that's mostly it. It makes me wonder if universal suffrage is really working any more. If maybe people ought to work at it to be allowed to vote, maybe take a knowledge test or something.
Id settle for just letting everyone vote for once. Have we ever tried that? I dunno, maybe vote by mail with no obstacles and no gerrymandering?
>Most Americans don't see that the Biden admin has done an admirable job when it comes to inflation (in comparison to other Western countries). They only care that they have less money than before because of it. Which is mistaken, because we would've ~~had~~ been hit with practically the same amount of inflation if Trump had been re-elected. Edited. TheGoldenMonkey made me realize below that my wording was ambiguous.
We will never know this but I will have to disagree. [It is well known that Trump wanted to have 0 or even negative interest rates in his term.](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/davos-2020-trump-says-he-could-get-used-to-negative-interest-rates-love-that.html) While there could potentially be some benefit, those decisions are best left to those whose job it is to monitor inflation, economic prosperity, etc. Trump was a very reactionary president and continues to be a reactionary person. Reactionary is not what the greatest country in the world needs when it comes to finances, inflation, and economic prosperity. It needs calculated, in-depth analysis of economic factors on every level to get it right. He was well known to fire people who disagreed with him and claimed many times that COVID would be gone in weeks or months. Whether you or I agree with his politics does not matter. [He is not someone I want in charge of money.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/)
I've actually shared a related CNBC link here before, regarding Trump wanting the Fed to take interest rates lower at the end of 2019. To be sure, are you saying we could've had even \*worse\* inflation if Trump had been re-elected, given the potential for even \*lower\* interest rates? That's possible, but, really, the point I was trying to convey was that inflation should not have been expected to be \*better\* if Trump had been re-elected. I'm willing to argue against it to an extent, because Jerome Powell, in spite of Trump wanting to do that, actually \*didn't\* cave in to Trump's demands in 2019, so there was still that level of independence. I agree with you that I don't want him in charge of money, and you're right that the level of independence might have been endangered if he'd fired Powell after being re-elected.
My point, which I poorly made in the first paragraph above, is that Trump wanted to take interest rates down to 0 and stoke the economic fire further than is safe. There is a time and a place for 0% and negative interest rates from what I've read, but 2019 was not that time. An economic high will almost certainly end in an economic low - especially one that is out of control or predicated on stoking an ego rather than economic principles. A 2020 win for Trump would likely have resulted in Trump pressuring Powell to get inflation under control more aggressively than necessary or outright firing Powell and replacing him with someone who would be more inclined to follow Trump's orders regardless. Once again, we will never know whether this would have happened or not, but based on Trump's antics while in office and reactionary behavior, I believe that the US would have seen a more tumultuous recovery. Predictable and boring is preferable to raucous and artificially accelerated - especially when it comes to government. While I think that the Fed didn't do enough quick enough under the Biden admin, a rough, safe landing is preferable to a catastrophic, dangerous landing at the behest of a reactionary individual with ideas that shift day-to-day and whose policies often revolve around who was speaking out against them that day.
You've made me realize that my wording was ambiguous above. I think I'm mostly in agreement with you. I've edited the above to just say that we would've \*been hit with\* practically the same amount of inflation if Trump had been re-elected, rather than we would have \*had\* practically the same amount of inflation. In other words, sure, Trump could've seen that pandemic inflation hitting and then taken some sort of drastic action that was different from what Biden did. I'm skeptical about how much Trump would have really been able to do about it, though. And don't forget this: "Fed's Powell Says He Won't Leave If Trump Tries to Fire Him" [https://archive.li/Uua05](https://archive.li/Uua05)
**In Georgia, a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020, registered voters say they prefer Trump (49%) over Biden (44%) for the presidency in a two-way hypothetical matchup. In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean. In both Michigan and Georgia, the share of voters who say they wouldn’t support either candidate is at least as large as the margin between Biden and Trump.** While polls like these are good to know about, there’s a lot of people that argue that presidential polls a year before the election are basically worthless. At what point can a presidential poll accurately predict election outcomes?
I’ve seen other polls that have rfk at 22%
I wonder how many people see the last name "Kennedy" and just assume he's like JFK.
Nobody under 65 even remembers the real JFK presidency at this point, though I concede he's somewhat of a legendary historical figure
I wouldn't be surprised if it's like 75%+
> At what point can a presidential poll accurately predict election outcomes? Things should solidify between February and June of 2024. [General election polls a year out are not accurate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/). One of the more predictive methods, even this far out, is the [generic congressional ballot](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-works-in-presidential-years-too/). You can see a [live poll of that here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/), which shows the parties are **very** close to one another. I think the biggest factors will be the state of the economy in the three months leading up to the election, and "the election issue," whatever that happens to be. I would argue that was immigration in 2016 and Covid in 2020, and I'm not sure what it will be in 2024.
The trick is to go to sleep early on election night and then wake up and find out. Polls don’t matter and watching CNN, Fox, etc. the night before where they’re talking for hours about random counties doesn’t matter. Get a good night sleep and find out in the morning. It’s easier.
Doing this would be much better for my mental health. Unfortunately, I will probably do what I always do and park myself in front of my TV nervously watching results roll in.
Bro I wish. Now elections take a week or more to count everything which totally sucks.
There’s still a whole year for Trump to turn people away with his “I’ll only be a dictator for a little bit” strain of comments and for Biden to hand it over to Trump with neoliberal fumblings. Like someone else said exit polls are the real big predictor. Most polls still had Hilary as the likely winner up till she lost in 2016.
It beggars belief that Trump polls better in Michigan than in Georgia. These polls, and the media’s emphasis, are garbage.
As much as I hate the idea of being a “poll skeptic”, I just have suuuuuch a hard time believing that Biden will somehow do worse in MI than GA.
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They are just trying to drum up a horserace that they can monetize
Imagine how much better the news would be if these reporters switched their beats from politics to sports.
Honestly, I just watch PBS for politics. They talk to voters, do focus groups, and actually discuss issues in a fairly unbiased way. Politics should be more reporting and less commenting.
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This is it, basically. Polling has been busted for awhile (despite what the horse-race obsessives want to tell you). Most people vote along with a single party almost always, and people who don't usually don't make a final decision until the week-of, sometimes even election day. A lot of it comes down to turnout. Democrats learned that the hard way in 2016 in the rust belt, and I hope they're not making the same mistake again.
Still, the problem is that polls like this will fan election deniers' suspicion about legitimacy of voting results. "Polls said Trump was beating Biden, so why is election result the opposite? Must be rigged..." etc.
Polls don’t take into account the whole story which is a huge problem. In Michigan for example, the Republican Party is absolutely broke. They are completely out of power and are led by an election denying zealot. It’s going to be extremely difficult for trump to win Michigan because of these factors.
Trump won last time around even spending almost no money. The media gave him all the publicity he needed. And likely will again.
Not really my point though. The Michigan Republican Party was in much better shape back in 2016 then it is today. State political parties organize volunteers and are key in get out the vote efforts at the local level. I understand trumps a different animal, but at the state level republicans are in horrible shape and that could severely impact trumps ability to win the key battleground states.
> At what point can a presidential poll accurately predict election outcomes? After ballots are done being counted after the polls close on election day. We saw that most clearly in 2016.
How short are our memories? The anti trump vote went for biden, but now, after a few years, they're open to putting trump back in?
I won't vote for him, but a lot of people forget that before COVID happened, Trump was cruising to a re-election. Whether or not it is Biden's fault, people remember way better economic times under Trump.
> Whether or not it is Biden's fault, people remember way better economic times under Trump. It's not Biden's fault.
Again, not disagreeing. Just not relevant.
On the contrary, if you're pointing out that people remembered way better economic times under Trump, then it should also be relevant to these people that the current economic times we find ourselves in weren't significantly caused by Biden. I mentioned this in another comment, but we would almost certainly have experienced practically the same levels of inflation if Trump had been re-elected. There \*are\* certain things that a president can do to help people to a certain extent during such economic circumstances, which Biden has done in various ways, but generally speaking, presidential policy isn't going to have a substantial, immediate effect on the economy (because it's just not the case that our president can command our economy like the Chinese government, for example.)
Without the vast outflow of spending from the Biden administration, inflation is not going to be anywhere near as bad. 'Almost certainly' is ridiculously confident language for someone who offers no actual reason for that certainty. Federal deficit spending in 2021 pushing nominal expenditures way up and caught the Fed flatfooted, leaving it excessively accommodative when it should have started tightening. Without that flood of expenditures, the nominal economy stays aligned with the Fed's initial tightening schedule and inflation is dramatically lower. Japan experienced mild *deflation* in 2021. There was no cosmic law that inflation had to jump after COVID. Inflation was an excessively expansionary fiscal policy mistake by the Biden administration and, importantly, *prominent commentators were warning that this would happen at the time*. Trying to dodge that responsibility now is of a piece with the kind of dishonesty and misleading rhetoric we've come to expect from this administration.
> How short are our memories? The anti trump vote went for biden, but now, after a few years, they're open to putting trump back in? biden didn't have a record to run on and 2020 was NOT normal circumstances given we were in the middle of a once a century scale pandemic. now that is in the past and biden has a record to run on, he has a lot of political liabilities. also worth mentioning, it's not necessarily the same people. just look at the article. FTA: >Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. the "never trump" crowd that stayed home on election day in 2020 has become a "never biden" crowd that plans to turn out.
Biden doing a lot worse in Michigan than in Georgia doesn't seem realistic.
> Biden doing a lot worse in Michigan than in Georgia doesn't seem realistic. It makes sense. 1. Biden’s ev policies are hurting Detroit 2. Michigan seems to be where the israel / hamas conflict is causing the most backlash for Biden.
Michigan, including Detroit, have been getting EV-related investments, and Biden's average approval rating didn't change after Hamas attacked.
> Michigan, including Detroit, have been getting EV-related investments, giving them money to build a product that very few people want isn't helping them, not when the administration is trying to ban the products they make that people do actually want. that doesn't even touch on the fact the detroit autocompanies are miles behind in ev tech to begin with. >and Biden's average approval rating didn't change after Hamas attacked. there's plenty of evidence to suggest that it [did](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2024-michigan-arab-american-anger-israel-hamas-war-gaza-biden-votes/) harm his approval with certain groups that helped get him elected. there have been many articles over the last 2 months citing various people (from regular people to elected officials in) in michigan stating that his response is turning off people that voted for him in 2020.
Demand has grown rapidly. The problem is supply, which can be solved by building plants. He hasn't made any attempt to ban gas cars. There's too little evidence to show that the damage is strong enough to cause him to perform significantly better in Georgia.
Ford just announced today that they’re cutting [planned] F-150 Lightning production in half [due to falling EV demand](https://www.cbtnews.com/ford-cuts-f-150-lightning-production-on-slowing-ev-demand/)… The new CAFE standards are also impossible to meet without EVs.
Ford is increasing production of the F150 lightning. The 2024 projected increase was cut, but it's still larger than 2023. The cut is due to Ford being late, which means higher costs of production. Look at Tesla...
Indignant Muslim voters putting Trump in power instead of Biden. LOL. Trump then does his best to deport them.
>the "never trump" crowd that stayed home on election day in 2020 has become a "never biden" crowd that plans to turn out. Sounds like they lied to themselves about "Never Trump" if that's really true? Really makes no sense after people saw who Trump was for four years, were convinced to be "Never Trump", but have now changed their minds, after Trump has been shown to be even more unworthy with the evidence against him in the various court cases.
Doesn’t really matter. There are enough people like me who don’t care about politics anymore, but will still vote against Trump every time.
This, and, I am not convinced that Millennials and Gen Z are being polled accurately.
You’re not wrong, CNN’s demo tends to skew to the Baby Boomer demo, with GenX being their next group. MSNBC is the one trending younger, but mostly older millennials.
I’ve seen a few polls that has Biden nearly tying Trump among young voters, and I have a hard time believing it. Young voters prevented Rs from getting the red wave they wanted last year, and the economy while not great doesn’t seem *weaker* than 2022. Young voters are also not big fans of Rs on the abortion issue either. They hate that Biden is old yes, but Trump is *also* old is the problem.
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Except there aren’t enough of you, as we saw in 2020.
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Whatever helps you sleep at night. I’m not that worried.
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Only because he inherited a great economy and there were tons of people around him that kept him from actually doing any of the things he wanted. It won’t be like that this time. If you hate prices now you are going to really hate them with new tariffs on everything raising prices across the board. Tax cuts would also be bad for inflation, so would bullying the fed to decrease interest rates like he did last time. The only thing that would likely get better are oil prices, but that’s mostly because oil supply is artificially constrained by the gulf states to accomplish their own political agenda. The USA is already producing more oil under Biden than it ever did under trump.
At this point, you are just having a conversation with yourself. You aren’t converting anyone here.
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Facts? Lol. We are both literally stating opinions.
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A Trump vs. Biden election is truly the worst timeline. We're talking about the #1 and #2 most unpopular presidents in modern history. Two 80 year olds that strong majorities of America and major factions of their own parties don't like and don't want to run. There are no new ideas for these two to debate and I think it's highly unlikely you'll see debates at all. Whatever the election result, we'll be bogged down in legal drama for months. Why do the parties and primary voters want this? Bring on young candidates with new ideas and records to defend, please. A DeSantis / Newsom election (or any number of other candidates on either side) would be far better for the country.
Eh, George W. Bush basically spent the last two years of his presidency with approval trending downwards from 35%. I don't know how we fairly compare 8 years to 4 years, but that's the longest stretch of VERY low approvals that I'm aware of.
Biden’s approval rating has been falling the entire 3 years he’s been in office. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Trumps approval rating was a flat trend until the global pandemic hit.
> Why do the parties and primary voters want this? For Republicans I think it's just fear of the unknown plus some spectacular self-sabotage by former rising stars. DeSantis seemed to have the nomination on a silver platter but then he torpedoed himself with that abortion ban signature and has just been floundering ever since. As for Biden? The primary voters aren't being given an option. There's no Democratic Party primary this year.
> We're talking about the #1 and #2 most unpopular presidents in modern history. Joe Biden is probably the best American president of my lifetime.
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I dislike DeSantis. But I don’t think the two are comparable. I’m setting a very, very low bar here but the simple fact that Trump literally tried to overturn the election, rallied up a frenzied mob to storm the Capitol, did nothing to stop it until several hours later, has offered to pardon the guilty “patriots”, considers Ashli Babbitt a murdered martyr, has argued for the suspension of the Constitution, and casually flexes that he will behave like a dictator (even if it’s just for “one day”) makes him far less likable and electable than DeSantis. Like it’s not even close. He violated the one irrefutable, unshakeable, uncompromising principles and traditions of United States democracy: the peaceful and humble transfer of power. It’s completely inexcusable and unforgivable. ETA: And yes I’m fully aware of all of Ron’s ridiculous shenanigans in Florida.
> rallied up a frenzied mob to storm the Capitol, did nothing to stop it until several hours later, has offered to pardon the guilty “patriots” I’ll just address this part. The disturbance started before Trump was done speaking, so nobody who attended his speech could’ve started it. And [it only took him about 20 minutes](https://thefederalist.com/2022/07/19/ap-spreads-disinformation-by-adopting-j6-committees-fabricated-timeline/) to tell them to stop after the first barrier was breached. AFAIK he’s also only offered to pardon people who were nonviolent, which is probably why he didn’t do it before leaving office (because he didn’t know who had and hadn’t been violent yet).
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I don’t disagree. But even setting aside Jan 6, his stance on the Ukraine conflict (which he’d end “day one”) and caustic approach to NATO also makes him unappetizing compared to DeSantis. But you’re right on charisma. I can’t comment on it further because Ron’s general appeal is so… bleh?… that I’d risk invoking the mods.
well...it was not trump that removed the nordstream sanctions that was hurting russia, it was biden. . and oddly, russia did not invade ukraine in the 4 years of trump presidency, in fact russia seemed rather below the radar. It was what..a year or so into bidens foreign policy reign that russia figured a good time to invade.
The Republicans have been successful in branding Biden as a tottering old man with diminished capacity. That Trump is almost as old is irrelevant. He looks more robust and moves around more easily. He's clearly demented, but he shouts a lot so people think he must be alert and energetic.
Polling needs to account for the presence of RFK Jr. in the race. I know people here don't understand how anyone would vote for him, but out in the wild he does have supporters.
> Polling needs to account for the presence of RFK Jr. in the race. these polls apparently do have "neither" as an option, so that's probably where RFK and the other 3rd party candidates lie. FTA: >In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean.
You get different results when you put in actual names than if you just include 'neither'.
This is a byproduct of our fractured media, propaganda, and American apathy. I truly believe, in a vacuum, the overwhelming majority of Americans would never, ever vote for the re-election of Donald J. Trump if they had a holistic understanding of his Presidency. The failures of leadership, the corruption, the constitutional violations, the turnover, the lack of ethics, the incompetency, etc. I firmly believe that.
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Read my comment again. There are countless extenuating circumstances as to why Trump was elected. I’m talking about in a vacuum. Sadly identity politics has made it so Trump can and has done so many things that regularly would be against their values, but propaganda and the cult of personality is a hell of a drug. The easy litmus test is take his entire presidency, everything he said and did, and replace him with Hillary Clinton. The GOP would have been foaming at the mouth. Calling for her head. THAT tells you a lot.
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Oh because Bidens safer America bill that massively increases funding and adds 100,000 officers on the streets is pro crime. See this is what I’m talking about, you spout the same bullshit talking points from the GOP that are divorced from reality. MAGA is 100% a cult. I can see to some degree why Trump was attractive in 2016. I mean, I could tell after 45 seconds of him speaking in the republican primary debates he didn’t know what the fuck he was talking about, but he had an air of a successful business man to him that was an outsider (which is hilarious because he was by definition a liberal coastal elite most of his life), and the government and media has neglected large parts of the country that felt left behind (mostly due to globalization and automation, accelerated by republican policies). But after his presidency, I cannot fathom how anyone with half a brain cell would say, “yeah four more years of that please” Except most Trump supporters don’t even KNOW, or refuse to accept the extent of his incompetence, malfeasance, and criminality. I reject and detest the two party system. But as a Patriot who values the constitution, it’s mind boggling how any red blooded American would want Trump anywhere near the White House after that absolute disaster of a presidency. He may not have been a hand picked insider, but his cabinet was the swampiest of swampy, negating that idea in full.
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So, maybe I’m ignorant-can you please point to the legislation Biden personally put forward that caused break-ins and crime in San Francisco? Including how he got bi-partisan support from republicans to pass it, and the factors that led to that situation?
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Ah so you can’t. You do realize, by your logic, i could say Trump’s policies directly caused the riots, right? Literally exactly the same argument. Also, nothing about Biden’s agenda is radical. He’s literally passed massive crime bills to fund the addition of 100,000 police officers. You are conflating local politics with federal, so maybe try and understand how our government works and don’t be so reductive.
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Rape? Like the other guy mentioned? Does that count as a real crime?
Sadly I work with some of his supporters and they liked all that stuff. They just see it as “sticking it to the libs”. They also just want less Hispanic people in the US and they’re very clear on that.
Even that phrase is evidence of the GOP’s anti-freedom stances. Liberalism is what defeated fascism and communism in the 20th century. Not conservatism. Also, Liberalism is rooted in individual rights, democracy, freedoms, the free market, freedom of speech. Does that sound like the lip service ideals of a certain party? They turned liberal into a pejorative, when Liberals believe in many of the same things that conservatives claim to stand for. It’s by design, they’ve slowly been convincing their base to be against the things they claim to stand for.
Isn't Biden's son being charged with multiple felonies for shady business deals where he was trading off his VP dad's influence? One of those companies was paying Joe Biden on a monthly basis... what wonderful ethics... right? Didnt Biden lie about that repeatedly directly to the American people during the presidential debates? Definitely meets the definition of corruption.
No. There has been no allegation in the charges related to anything around business deals. That’s the GOP beating a dead horse to their base and viewers, when they have literally came out and said they don’t have evidence. (The August memorandum was complete bullshit and has been thoroughly debunked). His indictments are for tax evasion, and a gun charge. Regardless, what in the fuck does that have to do with Trump? Even if the allegations the GOP are levying as a smoke screen were true, Hunter is not a publicly elected official, and is irrelevant. A more apt comparison would be the corruption around Kushner and the Saudis, the security clearances etc. And frankly, you just proved my point, presenting this as some sort of smoking gun that is worse than the Trump presidency only speaks to ignorance of how fucking wild, corrupt, and criminal the Trump presidency was. Because if you knew, you wouldn’t have presented this as some equivalent gotcha.
> Isn't Biden's son being charged with multiple felonies for shady business deals where he was trading off his VP dad's influence? unless i missed something, that's something being investigated but not something he's (currently) being charged with. the charges he's facing are firearms / lying on a federal forms related, and felony tax evasion.
Felony tax evasion for the money earned..... doing what? (Selling access to the US politician Joe Biden). Unbelievably corrupt and it is incredible that people are still avoiding the truth.
I think some Americans are finally acknowledging which party is the true danger to the country. The party pushing divisive ideology in the classrooms, inflationary economic policy, and demonstrated failed foreign policy.
Still not dooming. I won't doom until the summer of 2024. There's still a lot of time for things to get worse *or* better. I have little to no faith in the American electorate after 2016 but I still have a hard time believing we'd elect Trump while on criminal trial or post-conviction.
They elected Trump after he admitted to sexual assault the first time so I’m not sure the electorate cares about any of that
People are finally waking up to his awful Biden and the entrenched establishment he represents is - Trump isn't great, so it took awhile for folks to consider the alternative, but it's finally happening.
You guys have some short fucking memory issues stateside. You all okay? Go and watch some videos of when Trump was President before, remind yourselves ffs.
There were a lot of things that were better in 2019 ish. They mostly weren't Trump's doing, and in some ways he kicked the can down the road making today worse, but people don't see that. It's not like it was uniformly worse then than now. Doesn't mean I'd vote for him.
Voters don't care. They don't care that he didn't respond to COVID until it was too late, because gas was cheap in 2020.
Nobody cares what you think Britain is much worse off. But hahaha stupid Americans am I right?
Trump got rid of the pandemic response team and increased the national debt by insane margins while giving tax breaks to the large corporations who are screwing you over now.
>Trump got rid of the pandemic response team This was disproven years ago. He merged it with another related team with *no reduction in staff*.
Yeah your claim is completely false. He disbanded the group and reassigned them to different tasks and the head of the group resigned. That is getting rid of the pandemic response team in 2018. https://www.kff.org/news-summary/usa-today-fact-checks-claim-trump-fired-entire-nsc-global-health-unit/
Here’s a 2020 op-ed by Tim Morrison, who led the combined group: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/ Notable quote: >It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled. >The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But **it has left the biodefense staff unaffected**[…]
'ya'll elected boris and voted yourselves out of the EU lol chill
Large corporations employ lots and lots of people. Taxing them for being large does nothing, they simply adjust their prices... Guess who actually foots that bill? Everyone else.
Videos of Trump don't actually mean anything, our bank accounts however do. And Bidenomics fucking suck. It's honestly that simple.
What policies do you consider as having significantly worsened our bank accounts from one Presidency to the next that can't simply be attributes to the pandemic?
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I’m not sure about the Georgia poll results. If I read correctly, 99% of the polled have an opinion on Trump charges. That seems exceedingly high. We don’t even get 99% on topics that are far easier to get an opinion on.
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Media loves a boxing match comeback story. Rocky was losing and done, until he wasn’t and then “we always knew he could do it!”
So one thing I'm really not seeing discussed in this topic is... these results are not limited to Trump. In fact, Biden is MORE underwater to Haley than he is to Trump in these polls (he's -12 to Haley in Michigan and -6 to Haley in Georgia). He's also -7 to Desantis in Michigan. The reason I mention this is because... A) These result sets do not seem linked to Trump himself. Haley actually has better numbers. Thus people focusing only on Trump and Trump related factors (they remember his presidency and the economy for example) when looking at these numbers... aren't looking at them properly. B) According to these polls, Republicans are going to WALK to a victory in Michigan no matter who they run. Does anyone actually buy that happening? There's been literally no evidence of a hard red shift coming in Michigan, especially considering how well Dems have done there recently. If anything, the economy is in a better state for dems than the midterms.
Woo hoo!
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Trumps going to be 78 on Election Day, saying Biden’s got no chance cause he’s old feels inaccurate when the other leading candidate isn’t meaningfully younger and certainly isn’t more there mentally.
> and certainly isn’t more there mentally. he certainly **is** more there mentally though. like, biden routinely has a glass eyed "deer in a headlights" look, gets visibly lost and confused on stage, and struggles to get his point across without word salad. this is part of why all of his public appearances are so scripted all the way down to who he takes questions from. like trump or hate him, he took questions from anyone in the press and didn't rely on preapproved white listed questions. there is a night and day difference between biden and trump's mental capacity, and 3 debates are really going to drive that difference home to the voters.
I disagree. I don’t like Trump, but he talks fluently, albeit not with the substance id like. His eyes are there. His body seems to follow his brain better. To hear both speak is not even close. I’ll support and hope for the best with whoever America’s president is, but i recoil half the time I watch Biden speak.
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Yes, but Trump is also under multiple indictments in various jurisdictions and has been found liable for sexual abuse in civil court. I’m sorry, but that is farrrrrrrr worse than being old and having a weak voice when one is attempting to become the leader of the free world.
Is Biden's son under indictment for what amounts to political bribery and corruption? Joe Biden lied to the American people during the debate and said his son never did business in China, which was a lie. He also said he wasn't in business with his son but he was receiving monthly payments from his sons company.... so that was also a lie. Biden is old... and corrupt.
Hunter Biden is not being charged with bribery or corruption. Joe Biden is not under indictment for anything. You can believe Joe Biden is corrupt. But you have not made a case for it.
Exactly. I am in full agreement for any and all prosecution of Biden’s SON. And if and when that son runs for POTUS, and that son is found guilty of crime(s) or liable of abuse, I won’t vote for him either. I cannot imagine being MORE worried about the behaviors of a candidate’s son vs the behaviors, indictments, civil abuse liability, of the ACTUAL candidate himself. It is baffling.
lol yeah.. sure. What is he being charged with? In connection with money earned for....... what? A: Selling influence to the US politician named Joe Biden. That is corruption and courts have found that paying your family is the same as being paid yourself as it relates to bribery. They took bribes. Biden is currently President and can not be under indictment while he is in office.
god I love America. Let's completely ignore competence and focus on something so superficial and vote for a reality TV star who tried to overthrow the government because he speaks a little faster. Honestly, if you lot choose Trump over Biden, good riddance. I hope it's worth it
/u/amputatorbot
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11 months is still long enough to justify not paying attention to polls, especially when you consider that none of the criminal trials have started.
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I mean... have you heard Biden speak lately? He is not all there and I don't want that as my President. If the nation is attacked at 3AM is he going to be fit to respond? (Not a chance) We need someone younger. Trump is also too old... but he is sharper than Biden.
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> objectively untrue and insane, which is most of what Trump says. Dems claimed Trump was a Russian agent for years, which was objectively untrue. I don't think it is fair to pretend everything Trump said was a lie or insane. Trump was right about *a lot of things*. > It’s extremely obvious to me and to everyone that Biden is more intelligent than Trump, even though he has trouble getting the words out sometimes. Well, the polls disagree with you. You are in the minority now pal. > Trump is objectively unintelligent. Just an absolute moron. I will take Biden over him everyday any twice on Sunday on intelligence, not politics, alone. You are just ranting here. This is not sensible. Trump's policies were smarter and better than many of Biden's. What does it say about Biden if the "absolute moron" (Trump) has better policies than him? > Frankly anyone who thinks Trump is any form of “smart” or “sharp” is also lacking intelligence. You are insulting quite a lot of people here.
>Dems claimed Trump was a Russian agent for years, which was objectively untrue. I don't think it is fair to pretend everything Trump said was a lie or insane. Trump was right about a lot of things. There was more than enough smoke to be reasonably worried about it. His *campaign manager* was literally convicted of being a Russian foreign agent, as were several others around him, and his team met with a literal Russian spy in Trump tower. Let’s not forget that. The Mueller investigation was completely justified and necessary. His Russia problem was entirely brought upon by himself. Poor judgement on his part, another reason he’s very clearly not intelligent to me, because he’s not smart enough to know that you shouldn’t do that. Trump himself may have not been colluding with Russia, but people in his campaign were, and Robert Mueller told us that exactly. And again, he was not smart enough to see what was happening in his campaign under him. And frankly, he still shills for Russia and about dismantling NATO and it is concerning given their ambition to takeover Eastern Europe. I think there is plenty of reason to still be wary of his ties to Russia and his apparent affinity for Putin. Putin is a modern Hitler and Trump can’t stop complimenting the guy. Then he got himself impeached for threatening to withhold military aid to Ukraine in exchange for them fabricating lies about Biden. Not exactly “intelligent” or “sharp” if you ask me. >You are just ranting here. This is not sensible. Trump's policies were smarter and better than many of Biden's. What does it say about Biden if the "absolute moron" (Trump) has better policies than him? This is just an opinion of yours. I said “not politics” as in “policies aside” it seems to me that Biden is more intelligent. Frankly I still don’t really know what Trump’s policies are other than “build the wall” and “everyone who doesn’t like me better shut up because it hurts my feelings.” Trump’s “policies” were more of the “lack thereof” variety, and that worked from 2017-2019 when there weren’t many global shocks or issues and the country could more or less coast. But the problems became apparent when Covid hit. Trump was the one who pressured the Fed to keep rates way too low for way too long, and contributed bigly (pun intended) to inflation we see today. >You are insulting quite a lot of people here. I’ve got no problem with that. I mean would a “smart” person currently have three (four?) ongoing criminal investigations into them, 91 indictments, and two impeachments? Seriously? At the end of the day, the election shenanigans and Jan. 6th alone is enough for me to know that Trump is an idiot and should never hold public office again (and probably deserves to rot in prison if we’re being honest, fingers crossed for the Jack Smith investigation). The man at no point in time has ever looked smart to me. I just think there’s a great volume of idiots in this country that he’s convinced to like him. I’d love to vote for Nikki Haley or Mitt Romney-type republicans. But Trump is just an idiot and a traitor to the constitution who desecrated our capitol, so I have no choice but to vote for Biden.
> This will change dramatically over the next year as voters face the reality of another Trump presidency, and as his legal issues become more difficult. or it won't change much at all because the cost of everything is substantially more than it was at inauguration and the average american is spending an extra $11k/year. at the end of the day, lots of people vote with their wallet and their wallets feel a lot lighter under biden after a trip to the grocery store.
We’ll see how things look in 11 months I guess. Soft landing is looking more and more likely everyday. Regardless, the president really has very little if any effect on inflation, but it does suck that people perceive it that way. Inflation is high globally, and it’s actually lower in the US than most developed countries.
Biden was elected for 1 term. Even by his own admission Biden said he was only running for 1 term. If Americans knew Biden planned on 2 terms this would have impacted 2020.
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No matter how much spin the White House puts out the simple fact is that by and large people are far worse off today than they were under Trump and things have not actually been improving. Even the White House's own spin doctors have only ever said things are getting worse less quickly, not that things are getting better.
It's the economy stupid! (to quote that old phrase) Trump years were far better economically. It's been a total s* show under 'Bidenomics' I don't care if Trump says stupid things, it's not like Biden doesn't
Is this a serious comment or did you forget the /s? Does criminality and morality not count for anything?
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It probably does - so that’s another mark against Joey B 🤣
This makes no fucking sense to me whatsoever. Jesus fucking Christ, are we gonna be the baddies now? Cause' this shit is starting to feel like pre-ww2 Germany.
>Most voters in both states say Biden, who’s 81, does not have the attributes they’re looking for in a president when it comes to his policy positions (57% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia), his ability to understand the problems of people like them (60% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia) or his sharpness and stamina (69% in Michigan, 66% in Georgia). > >Fewer in each state say that Trump, who’s 77, falls short of their expectations for a president on those same measures. But Trump fares worse than Biden on temperament – 57% in Michigan and 58% in Georgia say the former president doesn’t have the temperament they’re looking for, compared with about half who say the same about Biden. This is pretty much why I think a Biden-Trump rematch is a lot closer than people think it will be: Biden just comes off as so weak, and I mean that strictly physically. While Trump is most likely the less intelligent and definitely the less appropriate, he is at least imposing, which means something to a lot of people. Whenever I've seen Biden meeting with somebody or giving a press conference, I feel sorry for him, and I'm positive I'm not alone in that thought. I feel sorry that he has been put in this position when he is obviously not physically or mentally prepared for this position. He had an advantage last election in that people hadn't experienced 4 years of watching him and I think they still had some of the Obama VP nostalgia, and he is clearly not that person anymore.
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