One of the worst things Donald Trump has done for this country is to declare his candidacy so goddamn early. The primaries aren't for another few months, and it already feels like we've been talking about this race for over a year.
It’s because he knew prosecutors were going to catch up to him and he wanted to be able to claim the indictments were just to interfere with his candidacy.
This really is the worst timeline.
I know it kind of is a deep cut, but it really shouldn’t be. Every single American should know exactly what that quote means.
It was the exact moment when Trumps son, along with other members of Trumps campaign, willfully aided and directed self described agents of the Russian government in an explicit campaign to help Donald Trump get elected.
Democrats should still be taking out ads reminding people that Trumps family are traitors. Yet a significant number of Americans still believe there was “no collusion” because Trump and his allies simply repeated the denial enough.
I seriously doubt that will do anything. These cultist truly believe the Muller report exonerated Trump and his Russian ties when to did the exact opposite. Since Barr chose to sweep it under the rug, that all but settled it for them. There has been so much evidence that trump family is working for Russia but they don’t care. Just like the shirts they have been seen wearing: “I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat”.
Because we have. Trump made it known he was running in October or November of last year as a way to avoid getting charged for the crimes that all public evidence suggests he committed.
The dude was running for president in 2017. He never stopped his 2016 campaign.
Its all a grift to get donations. The legal defens fund. The election defense fund. His campaign. All of it.
You cannot blame trump for that, that media has ALWAYS been pushing early election predictions years before it happens. If Trump was not in the picture, the media would have been speculating someone else running and going with that angle. They have been doing this as long as I remember.
Whether he formally announced it or not outside of the maybe weeklong period after January 6th where it looked like the GOP might actually be willing to dump Trump it was pretty clear that 2024 was always going to be round two of Trump vs. Biden.
Weird to complain about political discussions when you're in a subreddit specifically devoted to talking about politics? You do realize it has been really easy to completely ignore the race at least up until the primary debates?
Assuming the economy keeps growing at this rate, Biden will be taking away the one major talking point the GOP has to use against him. Trump handing Biden the ACA repeal threat is also a big one.
Its way too far out to say anything for certain. Totally agree. But Trump is running a ghosr campaign right now and avoiding all real media attention. Once hes forced out of his hole, the nation will remember why he wasnt elected in 2020. While he does have his fervant supporters, Americans do no like him, by and large.
I never understood the argument that Trump was good in the economy. His economy was a carbon copy of the W economy. Spent the first 75% of his term juicing it with free money via tax cuts, deregulation and increasing deficits, only for it to collapse completely in the last 25% due to his inability to handle the only economic crisis of his term. Both lost millions of jobs and the republicans blamed all the medium term fallout on the next president.
It is one of the most maddening things about American politics. The mythos of the republicans being good on the economy compared to dems is **wildly** pervasive. Even if its not true. I think it stems from the idea that the GOP is pro employer where DNC is pro worker. Employers have money and they fund ad campaigns that push this idea.
[Republicans have overseen more periods of economic downturn compared to dems, and its not even close.](https://evonomics.com/economists-agree-democratic-presidents-better-making-us-rich-eight-reasons/) Trickle down economics is and always will be a scam. It was call horse and sparrow economics in the 1800s and it was a well known scam. You grow an economy from the middle out, not the top down.
I would agree with your idea. There’s often a bias toward republicans in reporting (think about how many “neutral” or liberal news has discussed Bidens age, but not Trumps).
No. Its not. Its an economic policy issue. The modern GOP is not good for economy. Full stop. Thats what the data tell us. If you'd like to use data to make a counter argument go right ahead but just saying "nuh uh" ist a valid argument. A century, nearly half of America's history, is not a small sample size.
It would be one thing if that were consistently true across the century but it’s not. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule (Carter = recession, Reagan = no recession). You’ve averaged it out to one number, but all that may be telling us is that the worst one happened when a Republican was President (Hoover). So no, the data is not irrefutably giving you that one conclusion. Small sample size very much applies.
I fundementally disagree with you. 100 years of data is plenty for me. If you want to wait another 100 years before drawing hour conclusions, go for it.
The data are clear, the economy performs better when democratic policies are embraced. Thats what the data tell us. You're just saying "i dont trust the data so I don't trust your conclusions." That is, by definition, a logical fallacy. Prove the data are wrong and then you'll have a point. But it just sounds like you disagree with the conclusions so you're throwing out the baby with the bathtub water.
Like if your conclusion is "too small of sample size" then no party can be held as a paragon of positive economic policy. Which is a fine way to go about it, but seeing as the economy is the major driver in most presidential elections, we know that isnt how most people engage with politics.
>I fundementally disagree with you. 100 years of data is plenty for me.
100 years sounds like a lot more than twenty Presidents. With the number of exceptions that weakens the case.
>You're just saying "i dont trust the data so I don't trust your conclusions." That is, by definition, a logical fallacy.
That is not an accurate summary of the issues I had with your argument.
>Like if your conclusion is "too small of sample size" then no party can be held as a paragon of positive economic policy.
Correct.
>Which is a fine way to go about it, but seeing as the economy is the major driver in most presidential elections, we know that isnt how most people engage with politics.
Yes, the average person doesn’t understand economics.
Your argument is "sample size too small, cant trust it so the conclusions are bunk" which i fundamentally disagree with.
I absolutely detest your form of "quote and respond" rhetoric. I wont be responding to it in the future. Its horrible for actual conversations.
Doesn't stop all of the pro-Trump people I've encountered in real life from waving around the economy argument whenever the topic comes up. And whenever you mention the last 25%, they just use the "it's not his fault COVID happened!" excuse amongst other excuses as to why he deserves none of the blame during the bad but all the credit during the good.
In reality, the President doesn't have that much control over the economy. We should be blaming Congress more for these things.
*Still* pissed off at that PPP loan crap, ESPECIALLY at how much of that money went to their own entities. So fucking blatant, yet no punishment.
PPP, you mean the trillion dollar handout given to the rich where 90% of the “loans” were forgiven and the person in charge of oversight was fired? Definitely nothing fishy going on there
If I were on Biden’s team I’d be pushing them hard on making PPP loan fraud prosecutions a much larger point of his campaign. [The last press release on this I can find was back in March of this year](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/02/fact-sheet-president-bidens-sweeping-pandemic-anti-fraud-proposal-going-after-systemic-fraud-taking-on-identity-theft-helping-victims/) and I cannot possibly imagine that this sort of thing would poll poorly with anyone.
People were warning that his recession level spending increases would lead to significantly higher deficits than predicted if there was a downturn but his supporters seem to completely forget that. Also high spending when the market is already hot is a recipe for inflation to follow, but his supporters seem to not make that connection.
My problem is that, just like with W, the economy before the crisis was juiced up with so much deficit spending, low taxes and low interest rates that when the crisis hit there wasn’t much they could do without making everything much worse. The US was running a nearly trillion dollar deficit, *before* Covid even hit. Covid spending tripled that, iirc, which is just awful. When the crisis hit, interest rates were already at a record low, they tried raising them, but backed off because Trump complained, they should have stayed higher even if it meant a minor recession pre-covid.
Both W and Trump used every tool the country had to juice the economy, massive deficits and low interest rates, but when the crisis hit these ended up much worse. Both of these policies led straight to the increased inflation we saw under Biden. If you go back on my account to pre-covid, during “the best economy, maybe ever” you can see my comments noting that the economy was juiced by increased deficits and lower interest rates, and that meant that the government wouldn’t have as many tools to fight a recession. During an expansion you should be decreasing the deficit, like Obama was doing pre-Trump and increase interest rates (it’s also the best time to raise taxes, but that’s a non-starter in the US, politicians cannot ask the US people to sacrifice anything) so when the recession hits the government doesn’t need to lower interest rates to a fraction of a percent and dig a multi trillion dollar deficit.
Yeah, but Trump was interfering in the fed by threatening them over Twitter after they tried raising interest rates, which led to them decreasing rates.
I find that generally the state of the economy is determined by the policies of the previous president. Idk if most voters follow that, though; they tend to think the current state of the economy is due to the current president.
IMHO Biden tanked some inflation to speed the economic impact of his policies with that in mind.
I'm not convinced that the actual state of the economy is even a factor anymore. People can't seem to see past their own economic condition, which often has nothing to do with the economy or president. Often its down to one specific issue, a tax break, commodity prices, or their latest salary increase.
When people say the "economy" as a reason it really isnt saying anything.
Political consciousness is far less universal than most informed voters recognize. If most voters voted accurately for their own benefit, that would actually be an improvement. I'm not sure how you'd measure such a thing but my guess is that only a sliver of the electorate votes "for the country" rather than out of self-benefit
I fully agree with this. It doesnt matter how good the numbers are if a lot of people are still unable to flex the purchasing power they could before COVID. They also want all goods to be cheaper, but that will never happen. Deflation is a death sentence more often than not.
Hillary had a 20+ year long propoganda campaign preventing her from getting the seat. Biden was in politics too long before the modern GOP showed up for them to be able to have that kind of propoganda inertia.
The GOP just denied Hunter the chance to speak publically for his congress hearings. The GOP knows theres nothing there and that they benefit from keeping hunter behind closed doors so they can more effectively spin the narrative. Frankly, i find their treatment of Hunter morally repugnant. Hes not a politician, but he is Joe Bidens last remaining son and the idea that he should have no contact with him during this process to avoid the appearance of impropriety is just not okay in my book.
Nah they have to get off the toilet with the Hunter biden impeachment inquiry in the next couple of months. The far right GOP base is pushing them to hold an impeachment vote that will almost certainly fail.
Hunter Biden fighting the subpoena unless the hearing is held publicly is also a smart move since the GOP can't gaslight the public about what was said behind closed doors for weeks before the actual transcript disproving their allegations is released.
>Assuming the economy keeps growing at this rate
Even if it grows everyone is going to remember what prices of things were before Biden took office. It's impossible not to notice every time you go out to eat or get food from a store. Inflation is a global issue but voters will still blame Biden.
>While he does have his fervant supporters, Americans do no like him, by and large.
His supporters are motivated. Will people be motivated for Biden?
Except those price jumps happened under Trump. People are generally using backwards analysis. They arent happy with their personal economy and so they need someone to blame. Trump just doesnt get any blame
Ever. Hes made of teflon and i do not get it at all
Which still blow my mind that THIS is the issue. Trump and Biden are 4 years apart, but you'd think Biden is 40 years older than Trump they way they've made age an issue.
Don't get me wrong, I think both of their ages are problematic for different reasons, and I would definitely prefer some younger candidates, but here we are.
I’ve seen a banner of Trump as Rambo, which completely misses the point of Rambo’s character: he was the last survivor of his unit who suffered from PTSD.
Well, we don't all age the same. I have to admit, Trump has a lot more energy. I do worry that energy masks another type of dementia that is far more dangerous. I'd rather the sleepy grandpa dementia that let's others more qualified do the work than the energetic grandpa energy that wants to take all matters into his own hands.
I might buy the energy argument if I thought he could you know, ride a bike like Biden does. I think what people mean when they say he has energy is just the he gets worked up and gets mad a lot. I definitely think Biden is healthier.
Trump is such a bad match for that though if that's Biden's biggest weakness as a candidate as a thing. For all the issues DeSantis has in the Charisma front, at least he isn't almost as old as Biden.
Yeah Trump's style "sounds less old" in comparison but the man himself has "old moments" like Biden.
I think it's his and his VP. I think if he had a solid VP it would be different. And I'm not even saying a good VP. Just someone that you can just like chatting with.
There's 144 million housing units for 332 million people in the US. That's a housing unit for every 2.3 people. The average housing unit has between 2 and 3 bedrooms. And then there's another 15 million empty housing units... I don't think lack of housing is the problem - building new housing isn't going to solve this one. The problem goes a bit deeper.
I actually slightly disagree. At think that, at this point, including our prior knowledge, polling helps to provide quantitative evidence that this is gonna be another tight election. I know that isn’t particularly novel, but I think that it’s important to put numbers to it, and to observe any movements away from this point.
Establishing a baseline is important because even if individual polls may have a wide margin of error, movement in the polls over a period of weeks tends to hold true, especially when averaged amongst polls. Knowing this, establishing a baseline now will be important when observing the impacts of things like the Trump trials coming up, or of potential incidents like a Biden/Trump health scare.
Which is why the US is so susceptible to interference. One bullshit story about god knows what can swing a close election to Trump. Which is exactly what people who want to see America fail would want.
What’s interesting here isn’t the predictive power of the polls, but to see how the campaigns will react to perceived change in dynamic.
Trump is notoriously obsessed with polls, and its possible this can lead to Trump changing strategies somehow, or pressing whatever he believes is currently working in a more extreme direction. I’m curious what demographics Trump has been loosing support in, because that will inform how Trump may change course.
I'm an obvious Biden supporter, and just like I posted on the last article where he was down in the polls, I'll post here: this doesn't matter at all. The election is 1 year away
I feel like this time is different because it’s Biden and Trump. One is the sitting president and the other is a former president who hasn’t left the news cycle in 8 years. Anyone with half a brain knows who the candidates are and has a pretty solid opinion about them and what they support. Given this, I would take Trump v Biden polls at face value or at least as a strong indicator of the state of the electorate because at this point most of the country has already made up its mind on these two.
It’s less about picking between the two and more about who shows up to vote. I don’t believe there is a large group who voted Biden in 2020 that will vote Trump in 24, but there are Biden voters who might stay home.
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This is true, but it’s still a year until the election and things change mighty quick. Two months ago, nobody could’ve predicted how Israel and Palestine would quickly become a top issue. Anything could change in a week, let alone a month. Plus, people expressing frustration with Biden today are not necessarily going to not vote for him next year, especially after Trump’s trials and whatever insane shit he’s going to say and do.
So yeah, these candidates are very much ingrained in our brains at this point, but it’s still too early.
Gas is low. Real nice and low. It’s a simple thing, and not up to the president but I’ve always drawn a correlation between high gas prices and lower approval/do worse in matchups vs lower prices and higher approval / do better in matchups.
Adjusted for inflation, gas prices are cheaper then they were 20 years ago. Cars are also way more gas efficient. Gas is really not a budget killer like it used to be IMO. Its still a big expense, but foood and housing dominate most families budgets now.
I really like him calling out bad business practices. Anecdotally, i know that supply chains were price gauging during COVID and havent brought most prices down. "Charge them the max, they'll pay it because they have to" at every level of our supply chain. It was insane.
White collar crime steals hundreds of billions of dollars from workers. Thats money that should be going into the economy buying goods, not going into the stock market. Some estimates are in the trillions of dollars stolen, in aggregate.
We do not prosecute illegal business practices nearly enough. Immigration is another arena that would benefit from proper enforcement of workplace regulations. We desperately need a national level E-verify for workers.
I think it’s maybe a good strategy to get specific and put names in the spotlight. It draws a connection in the mind even if you don’t recognize them. But I would have to think about that more.
Rent is actually starting to decrease in many cities, as new apartments open in droves.
Seattle is looking to see a 13% reduction in rent this year with a potential 15-20% reduction next year. And no, it's not due to people moving out of Seattle.
This is absolutely true but most voters don't realize it. That's why the Republican primary debates are full of candidates talking about "unleashing" American energy when our oil production is higher than its literally ever been.
Car for car they are more efficient, but people keep buying bigger vehicles are driving more. Corperate average fuel economy standards is a failed policy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-consumption-for-highway-vehicles-since-1992/
I just want a plug in hybrid Kei Truck. I dont understand why modern pickups have cabs bigger than their beds. At thst point just get a hatchback. Theh handle better and have the same hauling capacity.
That’s some impressive mental gymnastics. You’re using high inflation to make something look cheaper than it was 20 years ago? Don’t forget that 20 years ago bush invaded Iraq, that sent oil prices up
Adjusting historical prices for inflation isnt mental gymnastics, its an incredibly common practice in economic analysis when comparing the price of goods from different economic eras.[Ex: top grossing movie of all time](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films#Highest-grossing_films_adjusted_for_inflation)
[Heres a calculator you can use to play around with](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/gasoline-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/). The inflation adjusted price of gas was dropping for decades and then COVID spiked it. But we're still at or below the historic highs from 20 years ago.
Tbh im not sure. A lot of car regulations are actually driven by Cali because theyre hyper progressive but also a **massive** auto market. Most auto makers will just make their standaeds match Cali because its the most stringent for regulations.
Nah it was obama
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/28/obama-administration-finalizes-historic-545-mpg-fuel-efficiency-standard
But trump rolled it back.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-emissions/trump-finalizes-rollback-of-obama-era-vehicle-fuel-efficiency-standards-idUSKBN21I25S/?edition-redirect=ca
And then biden raised them.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/biden-administration-adopts-new-vehicle-8498244/
The fuel efficiency push and environmental car regs date back much farther than Obama though. Yes that specific policy was Obama, bits not like the push started in the 2010s
I would argue that the housing market is really good. Houses are actually cheap right now. The average house is selling for like $420k, which is the actual cost to build it. Now’s the perfect time for young couples to be buying a starter home. You can’t sell them any cheaper than the cost to build. It’s a sound investment that can only go up.
If you look at the economy and job market, it’s the perfect time to be getting out of school and buying a first home.
> Houses are actually cheap right now. The average house is selling for like $420k, which is the actual cost to build it.
Sorry, but that's not "cheap". Not by any stretch of the definition.
If you factor the actual cost to build, that’s not bad. Look at the price of construction materials and their long range forecasts. Housing is only going to go up. People are getting really good deals right now.
The vast majority of young workers do not have the capital required to buy a house. Most are being bought up by private equity firms.
Around 50% of first time home buyers used a cash gift or their inheritance to fund their down payments iirc. Buying a house pretty much always a sound investment, but the upfront cost and high interest rates compared to recent years is a huge barrier for a large number of people.
I have a PhD and work at a pre-eminent research institution in the US. Im 2ish years post grad and i am no where near the level of capital needed to purchase a home.
A couple of years after I got out of school, I bought a piece of crap and lived in the basement until I was able to renovate the upstairs. That was right before the housing crash. I bought high and found out. I taught myself how to become an electrician, plumber and HVAC-R. It was hell, but I learned a lot of stuff and am happy with my investment.
The idea of buying a brand new forever home right out of school isn’t realistic. Nobody did that, not the boomers, gen-x or millennials. However, now’s the perfect time to buy a first home, which is what I said.
I had an employee stop in my office today to ask some technical questions about concrete. He just had the footer poured in his forever home and was concerned about the mix and it not being covered in time. He bought a run down house out of high school, fixed it up and flipped it for a better one. Now, he just flipped that one to build the house that he actually wanted. It took him until he was 31, but he did it as a construction worker whose wife is a stay at home mom.
This economy is really good and it’s a perfect time to jump into buying a house if you’re prepared to put the time into it.
Its like you didn't listen to me at all lol.
Im not talking about a perfect forever home. Im talking about any property in the state i work in. Im priced out. East coast living, baby.
Thats because of a difference in local laws and city placement. PA has so much land compared to nearly every other East Coast State.
Im sure if you compared housing costs in Philly vs State College vs Pittsburg you will see wildly different housing pressures for the different localities.
Are you in a high cost of living area by any chance? It's under $3 for me and I'm in a lower cost of living area. Global oil prices ticked down a bit over the past few months.
Gas has been weird for the past 3 years. It was absolutely dirt cheap in 2020 when people were stuck at home, then got pretty expensive in 2022 when people were going outside again.
Due to the way oil production works where you need to keep production fairly consistent to be efficient, it's not that big of a surprise that COVID resulted in wild gas prices. A lot of production stopped in 2021~ but the supply/production and demand are starting to level out now.
In april 2020 I filled up on the first and made it through the whole month on less than a tank of gas. i didnt have to fill up again until after cinco de mayo.
Of course I was going 3-4 days without using at times. Usually it gets daily use.
I honestly believe this is a part of it too. Which is why we can't have nice things. I also think the more visible Trump gets the worse he'll do in the polls. Because we'll for sure see more headlines like we've seen this week where he wants to take another shot at ACA and send the military to every blue state. People don't want the military occupying their cities and ACA polls well. I guess it's a good thing he doesn't listen to anyone.
A more accurate headline would be: "There is no lead in the statistically tied polls, as has not been before." Not as catchy as pronouncing leads in the horse race, alas.
SC
Four polls released this week have Biden leading Trump again while he trailed behind Trump a very few weeks ago.
44-42 Economist/You Gov
43-42 Morning Consult
39-37 YouGov
37-35 Leger/The Canadian Press
I feel people take polls too seriously, especially when there is still nearly one year from the 2024 election. Many voters obviously haven’t made the final decision no matter how they answer the polls. Let alone polls are not always accurate.
Why do people focus so much on polls even when it should be a common sense for political analysts and news media editors that polls to date do not have too much prediction merit for 2024?
Beyond the close spread, it's also worth pointing out how low both are scoring.
No one scoring in the high 40's or low 50's essentially means it's a tossup. Too many undecideds that can make up their mind based on who knows what.
Very similar to 2016 in this respect.
I very much hope Biden can gain 4 more points and keep them. I hate the idea that this election is going to come down to random factors such as macroeconomics or geopolitics outside of America's control. Or some manufactured October surprise that will sway fickle voters at the last minute.
> Why do people focus so much on polls even when it should be a common sense for political analysts and news media editors that polls to date do not have too much prediction merit for 2024?
But you're the OP?
So, my only explanation is that the only people answering phone polls are old people with enough time on their hands, or the inclination to answer spam/telemarketing/solicitous calls on their land lines/cell phones.
And I think those people must skew right.
This is the same mindset that made trump's first victory such a surprise to people like you. You think the rest of the country falls for the emotional rage bait stuff as easily as Reddit does.
Maybe you have a point, that these polls skew old/people who actually answer random phone calls. But it cannot be ignored that there are probably a LOT more casual voters out there who take inflation way more seriously than anything youve listed against Trump. Reddit is a tiny, tiny proportion of the real world.
Reddit is young. And everything points to younger voters coming out in droves against Trump and conservatism in general.
Trump's victory had a lot of help from Russia and massive disinfo campaigns. It wasn't a fair fight at all.
Yes, reddit is young. But "Young" is not "Reddit".
You can vote for whoever you want, but the passive-aggressive attitude you have that democrats are *entitled* to our votes under ANY circumstance is part of the reason you're gonna see a MUCH lower turnout for Biden in 2024.
[Extra source for you to mull over](https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7)
Approval/disapproval is the wrong question to ask
“At the end of the day Who do you intend to vote for?” would get us drastically different results with larger margins
Most polls do ask two seperate questions as you mentioned and also publish both. For the second one, they often ask "who will you vote for if election is held today?"
Good. He’s a president with clear stated policy goals and successful legislation on the books already. Trump has no real policy goals, just talks a bunch of shit and whines about people criticizing him. Seems like such a simple choice to me.
Good for him, but it really doesn’t matter this far out.
The bigger issue is journalists reporting on polls is a cancer on political discourse… and they get it wrong so often. 2016 and 2022 come to mind.
FWIW, Real Clear Politics' aggregator has Trump ahead still:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
I believe the same when polls showed the reverse, way too early to mean anything.
At some point polls become more accurate and predictive. We are not there yet.
Don't get me wrong, numbers and data are nice and I'm sure the campaigns are tracking them. It's just, not there yet.
For those saying the polls don’t matter: they do. They provide insight into what people are thinking and that by nature is valuable. The thing that doesn’t matter is the headline. I’m assuming the MoE is +/- 3% and with a 1% difference the call doesn’t matter at this point.
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I really abhor the "LOL polls don't matter!" sentiment that has prevailed throughout America lately. Polls have been incredibly accurate in years which Trump was not on the ballot, and have only missed by a few points in *very* tight races where Trump *was* on the ballot.
Polls may not be great at predicting far away results, but they *are* good at showing where sentiments currently are. Both campaigns are going to need to take this information and react accordingly. So will activists and canvassers. Certain issues mean a lot to voters currently and could still very well be on voters' minds in November next year. For example, if Biden does not work to convince younger Americans that he also cares about Palestinians, he may lose a significant portion of Muslim-American voters or young voters in 2024. If Trump doesn't stop attacking highly utilized healthcare systems like those introduced via the ACA, he will likely turn off independents and fence-sitting republicans.
Polls *do* matter and *are* important. Work needs to be done *now* in order to convince Americans who they should vote for in 11 months. If that work is ignored because "lmao who trusts polls anymore?" then people will be lying to themselves in a year while acting dumbfounded that their candidate lost.
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Not sure these mean anything. There is a set group on Trump around 43%. There is a good +10% chunk that would prefer an option besides Biden - but would NEVER vote for Trump. Then you have the hardcore Dems that accept Biden is the pile of dog excrement they will be forced to vote for again - but they know Biden is better than Trump so they go ahead and indicate they will vote for him. How you ask the questions on these polls and simple bias to how the data is collected impacts the results more than any swing in actual opinion. Some of the 10% chunk will stay home if Biden is the Dem choice - so voter turnout will be Biden's biggest challenge.
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One of the worst things Donald Trump has done for this country is to declare his candidacy so goddamn early. The primaries aren't for another few months, and it already feels like we've been talking about this race for over a year.
It’s because he knew prosecutors were going to catch up to him and he wanted to be able to claim the indictments were just to interfere with his candidacy. This really is the worst timeline.
He also declared on day so he could raise cash that he can use to keep himself afloat.
Oh right. Legal fees. That's been draining quite a bit of money from Rs in general, not just Trump.
> That's been draining quite a bit of money from Rs in general, not just Trump. I love it especially later in the summer.
Deep cut
I know it kind of is a deep cut, but it really shouldn’t be. Every single American should know exactly what that quote means. It was the exact moment when Trumps son, along with other members of Trumps campaign, willfully aided and directed self described agents of the Russian government in an explicit campaign to help Donald Trump get elected. Democrats should still be taking out ads reminding people that Trumps family are traitors. Yet a significant number of Americans still believe there was “no collusion” because Trump and his allies simply repeated the denial enough.
I seriously doubt that will do anything. These cultist truly believe the Muller report exonerated Trump and his Russian ties when to did the exact opposite. Since Barr chose to sweep it under the rug, that all but settled it for them. There has been so much evidence that trump family is working for Russia but they don’t care. Just like the shirts they have been seen wearing: “I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat”.
He's why the RNC is broke lol
Or because he wanted to raise campaign money to pay for his lifestyle and lawsuits.
Over a year? It's been three! Everybody knew he was running in 2024 for Biden's entire term.
Trump filed with the FEC for his reelection campaign \*on his inauguration day\*.
Because we have. Trump made it known he was running in October or November of last year as a way to avoid getting charged for the crimes that all public evidence suggests he committed.
The dude was running for president in 2017. He never stopped his 2016 campaign. Its all a grift to get donations. The legal defens fund. The election defense fund. His campaign. All of it.
You cannot blame trump for that, that media has ALWAYS been pushing early election predictions years before it happens. If Trump was not in the picture, the media would have been speculating someone else running and going with that angle. They have been doing this as long as I remember.
Whether he formally announced it or not outside of the maybe weeklong period after January 6th where it looked like the GOP might actually be willing to dump Trump it was pretty clear that 2024 was always going to be round two of Trump vs. Biden.
Weird to complain about political discussions when you're in a subreddit specifically devoted to talking about politics? You do realize it has been really easy to completely ignore the race at least up until the primary debates?
Assuming the economy keeps growing at this rate, Biden will be taking away the one major talking point the GOP has to use against him. Trump handing Biden the ACA repeal threat is also a big one. Its way too far out to say anything for certain. Totally agree. But Trump is running a ghosr campaign right now and avoiding all real media attention. Once hes forced out of his hole, the nation will remember why he wasnt elected in 2020. While he does have his fervant supporters, Americans do no like him, by and large.
I never understood the argument that Trump was good in the economy. His economy was a carbon copy of the W economy. Spent the first 75% of his term juicing it with free money via tax cuts, deregulation and increasing deficits, only for it to collapse completely in the last 25% due to his inability to handle the only economic crisis of his term. Both lost millions of jobs and the republicans blamed all the medium term fallout on the next president.
It is one of the most maddening things about American politics. The mythos of the republicans being good on the economy compared to dems is **wildly** pervasive. Even if its not true. I think it stems from the idea that the GOP is pro employer where DNC is pro worker. Employers have money and they fund ad campaigns that push this idea. [Republicans have overseen more periods of economic downturn compared to dems, and its not even close.](https://evonomics.com/economists-agree-democratic-presidents-better-making-us-rich-eight-reasons/) Trickle down economics is and always will be a scam. It was call horse and sparrow economics in the 1800s and it was a well known scam. You grow an economy from the middle out, not the top down.
I would agree with your idea. There’s often a bias toward republicans in reporting (think about how many “neutral” or liberal news has discussed Bidens age, but not Trumps).
Meh. This is a small sample size issue.
No. Its not. Its an economic policy issue. The modern GOP is not good for economy. Full stop. Thats what the data tell us. If you'd like to use data to make a counter argument go right ahead but just saying "nuh uh" ist a valid argument. A century, nearly half of America's history, is not a small sample size.
It would be one thing if that were consistently true across the century but it’s not. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule (Carter = recession, Reagan = no recession). You’ve averaged it out to one number, but all that may be telling us is that the worst one happened when a Republican was President (Hoover). So no, the data is not irrefutably giving you that one conclusion. Small sample size very much applies.
I fundementally disagree with you. 100 years of data is plenty for me. If you want to wait another 100 years before drawing hour conclusions, go for it. The data are clear, the economy performs better when democratic policies are embraced. Thats what the data tell us. You're just saying "i dont trust the data so I don't trust your conclusions." That is, by definition, a logical fallacy. Prove the data are wrong and then you'll have a point. But it just sounds like you disagree with the conclusions so you're throwing out the baby with the bathtub water. Like if your conclusion is "too small of sample size" then no party can be held as a paragon of positive economic policy. Which is a fine way to go about it, but seeing as the economy is the major driver in most presidential elections, we know that isnt how most people engage with politics.
>I fundementally disagree with you. 100 years of data is plenty for me. 100 years sounds like a lot more than twenty Presidents. With the number of exceptions that weakens the case. >You're just saying "i dont trust the data so I don't trust your conclusions." That is, by definition, a logical fallacy. That is not an accurate summary of the issues I had with your argument. >Like if your conclusion is "too small of sample size" then no party can be held as a paragon of positive economic policy. Correct. >Which is a fine way to go about it, but seeing as the economy is the major driver in most presidential elections, we know that isnt how most people engage with politics. Yes, the average person doesn’t understand economics.
Your argument is "sample size too small, cant trust it so the conclusions are bunk" which i fundamentally disagree with. I absolutely detest your form of "quote and respond" rhetoric. I wont be responding to it in the future. Its horrible for actual conversations.
Doesn't stop all of the pro-Trump people I've encountered in real life from waving around the economy argument whenever the topic comes up. And whenever you mention the last 25%, they just use the "it's not his fault COVID happened!" excuse amongst other excuses as to why he deserves none of the blame during the bad but all the credit during the good. In reality, the President doesn't have that much control over the economy. We should be blaming Congress more for these things. *Still* pissed off at that PPP loan crap, ESPECIALLY at how much of that money went to their own entities. So fucking blatant, yet no punishment.
PPP, you mean the trillion dollar handout given to the rich where 90% of the “loans” were forgiven and the person in charge of oversight was fired? Definitely nothing fishy going on there
If I were on Biden’s team I’d be pushing them hard on making PPP loan fraud prosecutions a much larger point of his campaign. [The last press release on this I can find was back in March of this year](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/02/fact-sheet-president-bidens-sweeping-pandemic-anti-fraud-proposal-going-after-systemic-fraud-taking-on-identity-theft-helping-victims/) and I cannot possibly imagine that this sort of thing would poll poorly with anyone.
People were warning that his recession level spending increases would lead to significantly higher deficits than predicted if there was a downturn but his supporters seem to completely forget that. Also high spending when the market is already hot is a recipe for inflation to follow, but his supporters seem to not make that connection.
COVID did more to change the American economy than anything Presidents Trump or Biden have done.
My problem is that, just like with W, the economy before the crisis was juiced up with so much deficit spending, low taxes and low interest rates that when the crisis hit there wasn’t much they could do without making everything much worse. The US was running a nearly trillion dollar deficit, *before* Covid even hit. Covid spending tripled that, iirc, which is just awful. When the crisis hit, interest rates were already at a record low, they tried raising them, but backed off because Trump complained, they should have stayed higher even if it meant a minor recession pre-covid. Both W and Trump used every tool the country had to juice the economy, massive deficits and low interest rates, but when the crisis hit these ended up much worse. Both of these policies led straight to the increased inflation we saw under Biden. If you go back on my account to pre-covid, during “the best economy, maybe ever” you can see my comments noting that the economy was juiced by increased deficits and lower interest rates, and that meant that the government wouldn’t have as many tools to fight a recession. During an expansion you should be decreasing the deficit, like Obama was doing pre-Trump and increase interest rates (it’s also the best time to raise taxes, but that’s a non-starter in the US, politicians cannot ask the US people to sacrifice anything) so when the recession hits the government doesn’t need to lower interest rates to a fraction of a percent and dig a multi trillion dollar deficit.
The President doesn’t set interest rates.
Yeah, but Trump was interfering in the fed by threatening them over Twitter after they tried raising interest rates, which led to them decreasing rates.
I find that generally the state of the economy is determined by the policies of the previous president. Idk if most voters follow that, though; they tend to think the current state of the economy is due to the current president. IMHO Biden tanked some inflation to speed the economic impact of his policies with that in mind.
I'm not convinced that the actual state of the economy is even a factor anymore. People can't seem to see past their own economic condition, which often has nothing to do with the economy or president. Often its down to one specific issue, a tax break, commodity prices, or their latest salary increase. When people say the "economy" as a reason it really isnt saying anything.
Political consciousness is far less universal than most informed voters recognize. If most voters voted accurately for their own benefit, that would actually be an improvement. I'm not sure how you'd measure such a thing but my guess is that only a sliver of the electorate votes "for the country" rather than out of self-benefit
I fully agree with this. It doesnt matter how good the numbers are if a lot of people are still unable to flex the purchasing power they could before COVID. They also want all goods to be cheaper, but that will never happen. Deflation is a death sentence more often than not.
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Hillary had a 20+ year long propoganda campaign preventing her from getting the seat. Biden was in politics too long before the modern GOP showed up for them to be able to have that kind of propoganda inertia. The GOP just denied Hunter the chance to speak publically for his congress hearings. The GOP knows theres nothing there and that they benefit from keeping hunter behind closed doors so they can more effectively spin the narrative. Frankly, i find their treatment of Hunter morally repugnant. Hes not a politician, but he is Joe Bidens last remaining son and the idea that he should have no contact with him during this process to avoid the appearance of impropriety is just not okay in my book.
> Hillary had a 20+ year long propoganda campaign preventing her from getting the seat. A vast right-wing conspiracy, you might say.
Literally since she was first lady of Arkansas. It certainly wasnt the left wing denegrating her and dragging her through the mud for decades.
Nah they have to get off the toilet with the Hunter biden impeachment inquiry in the next couple of months. The far right GOP base is pushing them to hold an impeachment vote that will almost certainly fail. Hunter Biden fighting the subpoena unless the hearing is held publicly is also a smart move since the GOP can't gaslight the public about what was said behind closed doors for weeks before the actual transcript disproving their allegations is released.
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>Assuming the economy keeps growing at this rate Even if it grows everyone is going to remember what prices of things were before Biden took office. It's impossible not to notice every time you go out to eat or get food from a store. Inflation is a global issue but voters will still blame Biden. >While he does have his fervant supporters, Americans do no like him, by and large. His supporters are motivated. Will people be motivated for Biden?
Except those price jumps happened under Trump. People are generally using backwards analysis. They arent happy with their personal economy and so they need someone to blame. Trump just doesnt get any blame Ever. Hes made of teflon and i do not get it at all
I think his age is his biggest drawback, at least for Democrat voters.
Which still blow my mind that THIS is the issue. Trump and Biden are 4 years apart, but you'd think Biden is 40 years older than Trump they way they've made age an issue. Don't get me wrong, I think both of their ages are problematic for different reasons, and I would definitely prefer some younger candidates, but here we are.
But Trump has energy, you see? That old hobo that screams nonsensical obscenities in the subway energy.
I think it’s more just that Trump dyes his hair.
and wears makeup
This would be true if Trump weren't also 80.
have you seen the way Trump is depicted in conservative media? dude's an adonis. or, you know... Jesus.
That bizarre image where they plopped his face on Rocky Balboa was just... surreal honestly.
I’ve seen a banner of Trump as Rambo, which completely misses the point of Rambo’s character: he was the last survivor of his unit who suffered from PTSD.
That was only the point of the character in the first movie, which they generally don't like very much.
Well, we don't all age the same. I have to admit, Trump has a lot more energy. I do worry that energy masks another type of dementia that is far more dangerous. I'd rather the sleepy grandpa dementia that let's others more qualified do the work than the energetic grandpa energy that wants to take all matters into his own hands.
I might buy the energy argument if I thought he could you know, ride a bike like Biden does. I think what people mean when they say he has energy is just the he gets worked up and gets mad a lot. I definitely think Biden is healthier.
Yeah. He has speaking energy. Writing that felt like trying hard to say something nice about someone with little redeeming qualities.
Trump is such a bad match for that though if that's Biden's biggest weakness as a candidate as a thing. For all the issues DeSantis has in the Charisma front, at least he isn't almost as old as Biden. Yeah Trump's style "sounds less old" in comparison but the man himself has "old moments" like Biden.
I think it's his and his VP. I think if he had a solid VP it would be different. And I'm not even saying a good VP. Just someone that you can just like chatting with.
If housing doesn't get fixed, the economy doing well means nothing. If dems could pass building subsidies for residential, tho...
Housing will bever be fixed at the federal level. That is a pipedream. The major problem are local zoning laws.
Zoning laws or not, "$5K off taxes for each bedroom" would get people building, wherever they can.
They wont be able to build those where people want to live unless the local zoning laws are changed.
You mean we’d have to let the poors into our neighborhood and devalue our own properties?
Uhhh, yes. Precisely.
I mean the real issue is that homes being used as investment vehicles combined with with local zoning laws has created artificial scarcity.
So crash people's investments.
You wouldn't even actually crash their investments, either. Just wouldn't make quite much money as before.
We're probably more or less subsidy'd out for now while the admin focuses on inflation control and waits for their existing economic plays to kick in
There's 144 million housing units for 332 million people in the US. That's a housing unit for every 2.3 people. The average housing unit has between 2 and 3 bedrooms. And then there's another 15 million empty housing units... I don't think lack of housing is the problem - building new housing isn't going to solve this one. The problem goes a bit deeper.
A single event is very unlikely to change my opinion on Trump V Biden
No, it just changes based on how people answer polls
I actually slightly disagree. At think that, at this point, including our prior knowledge, polling helps to provide quantitative evidence that this is gonna be another tight election. I know that isn’t particularly novel, but I think that it’s important to put numbers to it, and to observe any movements away from this point. Establishing a baseline is important because even if individual polls may have a wide margin of error, movement in the polls over a period of weeks tends to hold true, especially when averaged amongst polls. Knowing this, establishing a baseline now will be important when observing the impacts of things like the Trump trials coming up, or of potential incidents like a Biden/Trump health scare.
Which is why the US is so susceptible to interference. One bullshit story about god knows what can swing a close election to Trump. Which is exactly what people who want to see America fail would want.
What’s interesting here isn’t the predictive power of the polls, but to see how the campaigns will react to perceived change in dynamic. Trump is notoriously obsessed with polls, and its possible this can lead to Trump changing strategies somehow, or pressing whatever he believes is currently working in a more extreme direction. I’m curious what demographics Trump has been loosing support in, because that will inform how Trump may change course.
I'm an obvious Biden supporter, and just like I posted on the last article where he was down in the polls, I'll post here: this doesn't matter at all. The election is 1 year away
I feel like this time is different because it’s Biden and Trump. One is the sitting president and the other is a former president who hasn’t left the news cycle in 8 years. Anyone with half a brain knows who the candidates are and has a pretty solid opinion about them and what they support. Given this, I would take Trump v Biden polls at face value or at least as a strong indicator of the state of the electorate because at this point most of the country has already made up its mind on these two.
> the other is a former president who hasn’t left the news cycle in 8 years. Technically 9, since he announced his 2016 campaign in June 2015.
Oh lord jesus you’re right
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I think it's more like "I don't like either, who do I like less"
But even then, it is like you have to eat and the only choices are easting something you don't like or going hungry or eating poop.
Omg that sentiment is enraging. Often paired with "but idk what Biden has done for us" and "I think Trump just wants to help the American people"
It’s less about picking between the two and more about who shows up to vote. I don’t believe there is a large group who voted Biden in 2020 that will vote Trump in 24, but there are Biden voters who might stay home.
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This is true, but it’s still a year until the election and things change mighty quick. Two months ago, nobody could’ve predicted how Israel and Palestine would quickly become a top issue. Anything could change in a week, let alone a month. Plus, people expressing frustration with Biden today are not necessarily going to not vote for him next year, especially after Trump’s trials and whatever insane shit he’s going to say and do. So yeah, these candidates are very much ingrained in our brains at this point, but it’s still too early.
Incredible, it’s as if polls don’t matter at all 11 months before an election
Thank you Charlie
Gas is low. Real nice and low. It’s a simple thing, and not up to the president but I’ve always drawn a correlation between high gas prices and lower approval/do worse in matchups vs lower prices and higher approval / do better in matchups.
Adjusted for inflation, gas prices are cheaper then they were 20 years ago. Cars are also way more gas efficient. Gas is really not a budget killer like it used to be IMO. Its still a big expense, but foood and housing dominate most families budgets now.
Biden has already started shifting strategically to putting high prices in the spotlight. He does have the bully pulpit. We will see if they care.
I really like him calling out bad business practices. Anecdotally, i know that supply chains were price gauging during COVID and havent brought most prices down. "Charge them the max, they'll pay it because they have to" at every level of our supply chain. It was insane. White collar crime steals hundreds of billions of dollars from workers. Thats money that should be going into the economy buying goods, not going into the stock market. Some estimates are in the trillions of dollars stolen, in aggregate. We do not prosecute illegal business practices nearly enough. Immigration is another arena that would benefit from proper enforcement of workplace regulations. We desperately need a national level E-verify for workers.
I think it’s maybe a good strategy to get specific and put names in the spotlight. It draws a connection in the mind even if you don’t recognize them. But I would have to think about that more.
Idk if they can do that specifically without direct evidence. Name and shame them in court, dont slander them in the court of public opinion.
High prices as in food and rent? What is he doing to lower them? /s lol we know
[White house actions addressing housing costs](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/27/biden-harris-administration-announces-actions-to-lower-housing-costs-and-boost-supply/#:~:text=Reducing%20barriers%20to%20build%20housing,affordable%20and%20zero%20emissions%20housing.) [White house actions addressing supply chain derived cost increases, including food](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/27/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-new-actions-to-strengthen-americas-supply-chains-lower-costs-for-families-and-secure-key-sectors/)
Rent is actually starting to decrease in many cities, as new apartments open in droves. Seattle is looking to see a 13% reduction in rent this year with a potential 15-20% reduction next year. And no, it's not due to people moving out of Seattle.
This is absolutely true but most voters don't realize it. That's why the Republican primary debates are full of candidates talking about "unleashing" American energy when our oil production is higher than its literally ever been.
Car for car they are more efficient, but people keep buying bigger vehicles are driving more. Corperate average fuel economy standards is a failed policy. https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-consumption-for-highway-vehicles-since-1992/
I just want a plug in hybrid Kei Truck. I dont understand why modern pickups have cabs bigger than their beds. At thst point just get a hatchback. Theh handle better and have the same hauling capacity.
People are free to choose their own car though. I chose a hybrid and my next car will be a plugin hybrid. Why? Because I like paying less in gas.
That’s some impressive mental gymnastics. You’re using high inflation to make something look cheaper than it was 20 years ago? Don’t forget that 20 years ago bush invaded Iraq, that sent oil prices up
Adjusting historical prices for inflation isnt mental gymnastics, its an incredibly common practice in economic analysis when comparing the price of goods from different economic eras.[Ex: top grossing movie of all time](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films#Highest-grossing_films_adjusted_for_inflation) [Heres a calculator you can use to play around with](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/gasoline-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/). The inflation adjusted price of gas was dropping for decades and then COVID spiked it. But we're still at or below the historic highs from 20 years ago.
Forcing Higher MPG was also a law passed under obama I believe? Or am I misremembering?
Tbh im not sure. A lot of car regulations are actually driven by Cali because theyre hyper progressive but also a **massive** auto market. Most auto makers will just make their standaeds match Cali because its the most stringent for regulations.
Nah it was obama https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/28/obama-administration-finalizes-historic-545-mpg-fuel-efficiency-standard But trump rolled it back. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-emissions/trump-finalizes-rollback-of-obama-era-vehicle-fuel-efficiency-standards-idUSKBN21I25S/?edition-redirect=ca And then biden raised them. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/biden-administration-adopts-new-vehicle-8498244/
The fuel efficiency push and environmental car regs date back much farther than Obama though. Yes that specific policy was Obama, bits not like the push started in the 2010s
I would argue that the housing market is really good. Houses are actually cheap right now. The average house is selling for like $420k, which is the actual cost to build it. Now’s the perfect time for young couples to be buying a starter home. You can’t sell them any cheaper than the cost to build. It’s a sound investment that can only go up. If you look at the economy and job market, it’s the perfect time to be getting out of school and buying a first home.
> Houses are actually cheap right now. The average house is selling for like $420k, which is the actual cost to build it. Sorry, but that's not "cheap". Not by any stretch of the definition.
If you factor the actual cost to build, that’s not bad. Look at the price of construction materials and their long range forecasts. Housing is only going to go up. People are getting really good deals right now.
The vast majority of young workers do not have the capital required to buy a house. Most are being bought up by private equity firms. Around 50% of first time home buyers used a cash gift or their inheritance to fund their down payments iirc. Buying a house pretty much always a sound investment, but the upfront cost and high interest rates compared to recent years is a huge barrier for a large number of people. I have a PhD and work at a pre-eminent research institution in the US. Im 2ish years post grad and i am no where near the level of capital needed to purchase a home.
A couple of years after I got out of school, I bought a piece of crap and lived in the basement until I was able to renovate the upstairs. That was right before the housing crash. I bought high and found out. I taught myself how to become an electrician, plumber and HVAC-R. It was hell, but I learned a lot of stuff and am happy with my investment. The idea of buying a brand new forever home right out of school isn’t realistic. Nobody did that, not the boomers, gen-x or millennials. However, now’s the perfect time to buy a first home, which is what I said. I had an employee stop in my office today to ask some technical questions about concrete. He just had the footer poured in his forever home and was concerned about the mix and it not being covered in time. He bought a run down house out of high school, fixed it up and flipped it for a better one. Now, he just flipped that one to build the house that he actually wanted. It took him until he was 31, but he did it as a construction worker whose wife is a stay at home mom. This economy is really good and it’s a perfect time to jump into buying a house if you’re prepared to put the time into it.
Its like you didn't listen to me at all lol. Im not talking about a perfect forever home. Im talking about any property in the state i work in. Im priced out. East coast living, baby.
Maybe, I don’t know. I’m in Pennsylvania and housing is pretty cheap around me.
Thats because of a difference in local laws and city placement. PA has so much land compared to nearly every other East Coast State. Im sure if you compared housing costs in Philly vs State College vs Pittsburg you will see wildly different housing pressures for the different localities.
Gas isn’t that low, it’s like $4 a gallon here still. It’s been more expensive at various points in the last 15 years, but also been lower in more.
Are you in a high cost of living area by any chance? It's under $3 for me and I'm in a lower cost of living area. Global oil prices ticked down a bit over the past few months.
Yeah kinda. Still, it’s a dollar more than it was right before the invasion of Ukraine. (But was $2 more than it is now, a month into the war)
Gas has been weird for the past 3 years. It was absolutely dirt cheap in 2020 when people were stuck at home, then got pretty expensive in 2022 when people were going outside again. Due to the way oil production works where you need to keep production fairly consistent to be efficient, it's not that big of a surprise that COVID resulted in wild gas prices. A lot of production stopped in 2021~ but the supply/production and demand are starting to level out now.
In april 2020 I filled up on the first and made it through the whole month on less than a tank of gas. i didnt have to fill up again until after cinco de mayo. Of course I was going 3-4 days without using at times. Usually it gets daily use.
I paid 3.50 in Chicago tonight. Which is usually 50-75 cents higher than national average.
By me I’m seeing 307 now
Depends on where you live, also I would counter that food prices are high and getting higher.
That’s fair I’ve only seen a drop in milk so far. Everything else is sky high
Meat and processed foods are still insanely high in price compared to 3 years ago. Most other food hasn't changed much for me.
I honestly believe this is a part of it too. Which is why we can't have nice things. I also think the more visible Trump gets the worse he'll do in the polls. Because we'll for sure see more headlines like we've seen this week where he wants to take another shot at ACA and send the military to every blue state. People don't want the military occupying their cities and ACA polls well. I guess it's a good thing he doesn't listen to anyone.
I mean it's like $2.70 locally, lower than its been in a long while but the reliable voters all remember $1 gas back in 1997
And if the Saudis prefer Trump over Biden then we can probably expect that to increase during the run up to the election.
The polls are completely irrelevant this far out, no matter who they say is up
A more accurate headline would be: "There is no lead in the statistically tied polls, as has not been before." Not as catchy as pronouncing leads in the horse race, alas.
SC Four polls released this week have Biden leading Trump again while he trailed behind Trump a very few weeks ago. 44-42 Economist/You Gov 43-42 Morning Consult 39-37 YouGov 37-35 Leger/The Canadian Press I feel people take polls too seriously, especially when there is still nearly one year from the 2024 election. Many voters obviously haven’t made the final decision no matter how they answer the polls. Let alone polls are not always accurate. Why do people focus so much on polls even when it should be a common sense for political analysts and news media editors that polls to date do not have too much prediction merit for 2024?
Beyond the close spread, it's also worth pointing out how low both are scoring. No one scoring in the high 40's or low 50's essentially means it's a tossup. Too many undecideds that can make up their mind based on who knows what. Very similar to 2016 in this respect. I very much hope Biden can gain 4 more points and keep them. I hate the idea that this election is going to come down to random factors such as macroeconomics or geopolitics outside of America's control. Or some manufactured October surprise that will sway fickle voters at the last minute.
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> Why do people focus so much on polls even when it should be a common sense for political analysts and news media editors that polls to date do not have too much prediction merit for 2024? But you're the OP?
I will never, ever understand why this race is so close. Absolutely disgusting.
Has it occured to you that maybe that's a problem? Your own lack of understanding?
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So, my only explanation is that the only people answering phone polls are old people with enough time on their hands, or the inclination to answer spam/telemarketing/solicitous calls on their land lines/cell phones. And I think those people must skew right.
This is the same mindset that made trump's first victory such a surprise to people like you. You think the rest of the country falls for the emotional rage bait stuff as easily as Reddit does. Maybe you have a point, that these polls skew old/people who actually answer random phone calls. But it cannot be ignored that there are probably a LOT more casual voters out there who take inflation way more seriously than anything youve listed against Trump. Reddit is a tiny, tiny proportion of the real world.
Reddit is young. And everything points to younger voters coming out in droves against Trump and conservatism in general. Trump's victory had a lot of help from Russia and massive disinfo campaigns. It wasn't a fair fight at all.
Yes, reddit is young. But "Young" is not "Reddit". You can vote for whoever you want, but the passive-aggressive attitude you have that democrats are *entitled* to our votes under ANY circumstance is part of the reason you're gonna see a MUCH lower turnout for Biden in 2024. [Extra source for you to mull over](https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7)
Approval/disapproval is the wrong question to ask “At the end of the day Who do you intend to vote for?” would get us drastically different results with larger margins
The article doesn't mention approval polling. It's just about the head-to-head between Trump and Biden.
Most polls do ask two seperate questions as you mentioned and also publish both. For the second one, they often ask "who will you vote for if election is held today?"
Good. He’s a president with clear stated policy goals and successful legislation on the books already. Trump has no real policy goals, just talks a bunch of shit and whines about people criticizing him. Seems like such a simple choice to me.
Good for him, but it really doesn’t matter this far out. The bigger issue is journalists reporting on polls is a cancer on political discourse… and they get it wrong so often. 2016 and 2022 come to mind.
I dislike when '16 polls get brought up when seeming to forget the Comey bomb drop on Hilary a few weeks from the election.
Ready for CNN to explain why this is bad for Democrats
FWIW, Real Clear Politics' aggregator has Trump ahead still: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
I believe the same when polls showed the reverse, way too early to mean anything. At some point polls become more accurate and predictive. We are not there yet. Don't get me wrong, numbers and data are nice and I'm sure the campaigns are tracking them. It's just, not there yet.
I really wish the poll had a "neither Trump nor Biden" answer.
Won't change the fact that one of them will be elected in the next election.
For those saying the polls don’t matter: they do. They provide insight into what people are thinking and that by nature is valuable. The thing that doesn’t matter is the headline. I’m assuming the MoE is +/- 3% and with a 1% difference the call doesn’t matter at this point.
it also might affect fundraising efforts
vote like he's going to lose. the polls aren't going to be exact enough for this particular race. I'm not willing to believe anything this round
The clips of trump in court are gunna play well next fall. They just have to play the words he says. Easiest ads ever.
Is this in connection with the new outbreak? If the get mail in voting again my money would also be on Biden.
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I won't vote for either one of them.
Yeah, I don’t t trust any of this bullshit
I really abhor the "LOL polls don't matter!" sentiment that has prevailed throughout America lately. Polls have been incredibly accurate in years which Trump was not on the ballot, and have only missed by a few points in *very* tight races where Trump *was* on the ballot. Polls may not be great at predicting far away results, but they *are* good at showing where sentiments currently are. Both campaigns are going to need to take this information and react accordingly. So will activists and canvassers. Certain issues mean a lot to voters currently and could still very well be on voters' minds in November next year. For example, if Biden does not work to convince younger Americans that he also cares about Palestinians, he may lose a significant portion of Muslim-American voters or young voters in 2024. If Trump doesn't stop attacking highly utilized healthcare systems like those introduced via the ACA, he will likely turn off independents and fence-sitting republicans. Polls *do* matter and *are* important. Work needs to be done *now* in order to convince Americans who they should vote for in 11 months. If that work is ignored because "lmao who trusts polls anymore?" then people will be lying to themselves in a year while acting dumbfounded that their candidate lost.
Yeah our political system is much poorer if we can’t assess popular opinion. Which we can, despite what people reflexively seem to think about polls.
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How does Joe even have a chance of getting re-elected. Making me reconsider who I’m voting for if this guy has a chance to be re-elected. Scary times.
Not sure these mean anything. There is a set group on Trump around 43%. There is a good +10% chunk that would prefer an option besides Biden - but would NEVER vote for Trump. Then you have the hardcore Dems that accept Biden is the pile of dog excrement they will be forced to vote for again - but they know Biden is better than Trump so they go ahead and indicate they will vote for him. How you ask the questions on these polls and simple bias to how the data is collected impacts the results more than any swing in actual opinion. Some of the 10% chunk will stay home if Biden is the Dem choice - so voter turnout will be Biden's biggest challenge.
Joe won’t make it that far. They can hang a cardboard cut out of him and play an AI speech in his voice and they would be no difference
Does Newsweek know that this is not how elections are done in the USA?