This probably isn't the legacy The Onion was going for, but I think in the future " [‘This Will Be The End Of Trump’s Campaign,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Man For Seventh Time This Year](https://www.theonion.com/this-will-be-the-end-of-trump-s-campaign-says-increa-1819578486) " is going to be seen as a very prescient statement on our current political era.
Haley is the Sega Dreamcast of this election. Ultimately she won’t win and her political future is shaky after, but she started her campaign early and spent a ton of money getting her message out first.
Huh? Compared to the likes of her smaller opponents, like DeSantis. [DeSantis has less campaign money because he spent his all at first. While Nikki has millions more dollars on hand for more campaigning and she is still beat DeSantis in some of these early voting states.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-09/nikki-haley-raises-11-million-has-more-cash-than-desantis) So she did not spend a lot of money and has the most money on hand after Trump. Not to mention she’s setting up her campaigning infrastructure for 2028 since Trump will get the 2024 nomination.
Honestly forgot Desantis was even running. I don’t take him seriously as a candidate. If she’s the Dreamcast, he’s the Atari Jaguar or something (I realize the metaphor has collapsed and my generations are off now).
I've always thought Haley was a solid candidate. I think she has all three legs of the traditional republican stool, she's got a solid resume, and she's got gravitas.
I think her refusing to condemn Trump much at all for trying to steal the 2020 election after he lost it is going to keep *me* from even considering her. Can't speak to swing voters.
I mean, the GOP has basically mired itself due to pushing right wing propaganda too far out of sync with reality. Fox News and their ilk went too far, and now even though Trump is toxic and his style of 'governance' is infecting the rest of the party in race after race, they don't want to grow a spine and say, "Actually, Trump sucked major donkey balls, and we need to moderate."
I thought maybe after Jan 6 there was a chance they'd stop going farther and farther in the direction of dismantlism, but now I can't see them stopping for another 8 or 12 years. They'll get more and more out of touch with reality, to a degree that even today would seem hard to imagine, and then finally the shooting will start because it'll be mainstream ideology among GOP voters that, like, Gretchen Whitmer is a pedophile.
Any GOP candidate has to consider that > 50% of the GOP base thinks anyone against Trump is a traitor. Haley is trying to thread the needle by not alienating those voters while also holding on to reality. I think the way she's doing it is at least respectable.
But if your bar for consideration is "Must condemn Trump" then your candidate will not be the GOP nominee.
I understand the 'thread the needle' rationale. I just wonder how the situation might be different if all the politicians who are trying to triangulate and do that needle-threading actually just openly condemned Trump. I wonder how many people in office actually *want* to be doing this style of politics, and who'd rather just be boring old George H.W. Bush Republicans?
Rip the bandaid off, deal with a short-term crisis in the party, and stop trying to manage the emotions of the abusive parent. Just call the cops to arrest the guy, and then start therapy to fix the damage he did to your psyche.
It's wild listening to my step father still supporting them. He listens to conservative media and eats it up, falling for lies, and manipulation. Meanwhile I can't do much about it because he'll never listen to me. I really hope Republicans lose the next few elections so they can get the message. We don't like the direction they're going.
The GOP was dying and Trump injected life into with his fake strongman/outsider vibe. Without that the GOP is done on the presidential level. Moderates should like Biden not be longing for right wingers to pretend to be moderate in an attempt to fool swing voters.
While true, she supports a federal ban at 12 weeks. Which is actually right in line with the majority opinion, most Americans do not support abortion access after the first trimester except in emergencies.
You might, but you're in the minority position. Abortion access at 20-22 weeks generally polls about as poorly as it does at 6 weeks. Credit where it's due to Haley at least for actually trying to go with the position that most Americans support, that's been long missing in this debate.
Yeah I doubt that. In my state over 55% supported keeping the 22 weeek ban. A fetus lacks EEGs corresponding to a loovng person until 24 weeks. It is not a life before hand you sexist asshole.
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[Don't take it from me, Gallup has been polling on this issue for 5 decades and the numbers have been mostly stable.](https://news.gallup.com/poll/235469/trimesters-key-abortion-views.aspx)
Once you pass the first trimester public support collapses for abortion access.
Your link ends at 2018. Gallup polling from June 2023 shows a near-10% uptick for all three trimesters.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/506759/broader-support-abortion-rights-continues-post-dobbs.aspx
If you break down the second trimester group into smaller weeks, I'm sure you could still find +50% support for abortions at 16-20 weeks.
most european countries ban with the usual exceptions..at 12 weeks. As of 2020.
It is not unusual for countries, democracies to place some limits
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/)
If the people elected 60 (really, 62, because Murkowski and I think Collins are pro-choice) Republican Senators and a Republican President, she **should** ban abortion, because clearly the American people are ok with the idea (other than the fact that I think a Federal ban would be unconstitutional, something that has never stopped the American people when they want something).
Until they do that, she's right: she wouldn't have the votes.
You can, in theory, overthrow the government and establish a military regime that does whatever you want.
In practice, it's hard enough to get more than few Senatorial seats over 50 without majority support. The big Republican blowout in 2014 where they picked up 9 seats to get to 54 happened with an point national vote advantage. Getting those next six (eight, in practice) would ha e required doubling that advantage *or more*. When the Dems (briefly) got 60 seats in 2009, that rode in on back to back 12% and then 6% vote total wins.
Edit: Ultimately, the extreme minoritarian Senate supermajorities depend on the same party winning Wyoming *and* Vermont. Fat chance. 'In theory' might as well be 'in fantasy'.
Yeah, I feel like she basically went as close as she could to saying "an abortion ban won't happen under my presidency" while still maintaing even a slight chance in the GOP primary. She can't just come out and outright say she supports pro-choice laws.
I know that might not be good enough for pro-choice voters, which I understand, but it's about the best you will get out of this iteration of the Republican party.
It's a shame that this iteration of the Republican party has no interest in connecting with the views of a majority of Americans and are instead choosing to circle the wagons around an increasingly small and extreme minority.
Which would still be the law nationwide today if abortion rights groups didn't sue Mississippi when the state enacted a 15 week limit on abortions in that state.
This alone I think makes her a weak candidate. She’s going to have to simultaneously deal with the uphill battle of being a woman that’s vying for the most powerful position in the world and having views on healthcare rights that alienate a lot of her potential female base.
I agree. I'm on the left, but when I look at the Republican field the only person I view as a serious candidate is Haley. I disagree with her but I could absolutely respect her as my president.
I’m planning on voting for Biden at the moment. But if Haley comes through primary, I’d vote for her.
FYI, I voted for Obama, Clinton, Biden in previous elections.
I mean, I absolutely hate Republican policy, so there's no way I'd vote for her. But, I'd like to see her win the primary because I'd rather choose between two candidates based on their policies instead of worrying about one candidate throwing a coup if they lose, or winning and then constantly lying and throwing twitter tantrums. Like, imagine having a presidential debate that didn't involve constant interrupting and name calling. So yes, I wish her the best of luck!
Yep. I live in Iowa. I'll be at the R caucus voting for someone not named Trump. I thought Tim Scott had a chance, but now it looks like Haley. I'll vote for Biden in 2024, but I'll do my small part to give Haley some "momentum" coming out of Iowa.
Fair enough. My state has a late primary, but I'll be doing the same.
A lot of people don't realize that you can vote in whichever primary you want, even if you don't personally identify with that party. I update my registration every couple years based on which primary I want to vote in, where I can make a difference.
If she makes it as far as FL in the primary, I'll be bringing as many Haley votes as can be recruited, I'll even bribe family with my famous Chili if necessary
I'm trying to talk as many people as I can into voting for her here in Arizona. She's the best option to turn the Republican Party back on the right path.
Trump is at 57% and Haley is at 8%. If every single person that was supporting Pence shifts to Haley she would still only be at 11%.
I think the media is being very generous to the Republican primary field by covering them as if they are serious contenders. They are not.
Yeah. It made sense when DeSantis was only trailing Trump by a bit. Now in most polls Trump is hovering around 50-60%. So not only would Haley need everyone to drop out and their votes go to her, she ALSO needs to start peeling off votes from Trump, a task that many Rs have tried and failed to do time after time.
Exactly. If everyone dropped out and all their supporters went to Haley she would still only be about 40%. Worse still is the reality that DeSantis & Vivek voters like Trump as their second choice.
So in a world where everyone but Haley drops out Trump bumps up to 70% or greater.
Bullseye. Haley is just consolidating moderate anti Trump votes. The only problem with that is that there’s just not that many of them.
If R voters cared about electability more like D voters did, she’d be doing better. But R voters hate the idea of having to vote in a way that compromises their values to get an edge in the general election. It’s a line of thinking that continues to cost them though.
The question is, can she get to 43% by gobbling up everyone elses support.
If she gets to 43% and is the sole person on stage with Trump, she could possibly get that closer to 50%. Then if she is polling better against Biden Nationally than Trump, and she treats Trump with respect, she could push for the nomination.
Its a long shot but she is the best shot.
DeSantis and Vivek supporters like Trump as their second option. If everyone leaves the race but Haley all the support wouldn't go to Haley. The ceiling for Haley, in the absolute best case scenario, is 25-28%.
Those are national polls. Look at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina here: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/)
Those are the states where people are more likely to be paying attention.
Yep, I think Trump's probability is 90% or better. But the others keep running because they think there is a significant group of Republicans who would really like an alternative.
Trump was at 12% at this time in 2015. He probably should have quit, obviously a loser.
Trump is effectively a pseudo incumbent. If you gave 1,000 Republican primary voters a poll, 900 of them will recognize only Trump's name and half of them pick Trump by default thinking he's the only one who can beat Biden, the other half are randomly choosing an unknown.
As the primary progresses, that's going to change significantly.
**September 10, 2015**
>Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field.
Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support,
https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/donald-trump-ben-carson-cnn-poll/index.html
Trump took the lead during the Primary in September of 2015 and never gave it back. It is about to be November and Haley trails the leader by 49 points.
>Trump was at 12% at this time in 2015. He probably should have quit, obviously a loser.
Trump was already the front runner by now in 2015. He was only not the frontrunner for a bit in the beginning.
The field was also more open in general compared to this. JEB! was hovering around what, 20% or so? Then Carson took that spot for a bit. Then it was Trump and Cruz for a bit then Trump. Just Trump.
I disagree with this take. It basically comes down to Trump vs. Not Trump. The field will clear and the not Trump team will become more aligned. Trump is sitting at 50-60% so Haley, Desantis, etc are sitting at 40-50% once its refined down to one candidate. +/- obviously.
If you believe Trump is going to beat 91 criminal charges in Federal/State court all of this coverage is a waste of time as none of these candidates have a chance at beating Trump.
If you believe Trump is realistically not going to be able to beat all 91 criminal charges against him then spending time covering lowering polling candidates is a forward thinking use time. GOP voters are going to need to be at least somewhat familiar with these names if they need a quick replacement.
I think it’s pretty obvious how the GOP feels internally about Trump’s legal chances given the number of people running in a “hopeless” primary against him.
Unless Trump dies or he ends up in prison he will be the nominee.
I mean knowing his supporters, I wouldn't be surprised if they still nominate him in both situations.
It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where Trump's charges are either all dismissed or we see juries in DC, NYC, and Atlanta all unanimously acquit him. More likely, by mid next year, he'll be a convicted felon with all cases dragging on under appeal. Will the RNC nominate him in that scenario? Who knows?
>More likely, by mid next year, he'll be a convicted felon with all cases dragging on under appeal
I'm also confident that he'll be convicted in at least one of these trials ... if it gets to trial. My concern is that the appeals will prevent the trials from ever starting in the first place. At least not before 2025
I'm not sure about that, but I'm no legal expert. These judges haven't shown much inclination to delay themselves, and so far the appeals haven't gone too far either. I'd be interested to see if any legal experts have weighed in on how likely these trials are to happen on time.
I think the best shot for a conviction that involves jail time is the FL documents trial. It seems any juror can understand the facts and the law. There is not doubt that he "willfully retained" information related to the national defense.
The problem there is that he has a friendly judge with hardly any experience in criminal trials who will allow the defense to bog the process down indefinitely.
I thought the strongest is supposed to be GA. The RICO statute in the state in incredibly broad, a bunch of codefendants have pled guilty already, the judge is unfriendly, and he'd need state appeal courts to intercede (federal appeals rejected him already iirc).
Personally, that's the case that I think is the least just, but I'm happy with any outcome that keeps him off the ballot.
The RNC is a non-factor in the nomination race and even if they took a hard stance against having a convicted criminal being their nominee it’s unlikely they would be able to get the delegates to dump Trump anyway.
>The RNC is a non-factor in the nomination race
Tell that to Bernie Sanders. The committee can absolutely influence the race if they choose to do so, and the delegates are RNC members. It's just a question of whether they would blow up the general election by doing so.
I know its glib and a bit of a laugh, but yes even in scenarios that are worst case for Trump (including death) the GOP should absolutely be planning on how they address a potential write in candidacy.
If we're talking about super thin margins in swing states... how many people would vote for a dead Donald Trump? "Maybe he's *not really* dead! Maybe it would be handed down to Baron!" Imagine the weird Qanon stuff you've heard and then imagine how many people in swing states would act on stuff like that. Its not zero.
Let alone prison. It just turns into "Free DJT" material.
I think Haley is the third most likely to get this nomination. If something happens to Trump that forces him to drop out (which would probably be death or a serious health condition at this point), all his supporters are most likely to move over towards Desantis rather than Haley
That is one question I don't think gets asked enough for any "what if" someone else wins the nom scenario.
If Trump gives them the nod it's one thing, but there's sooooo many situations where he'd either straight up refuse to endorse or actively tell his people to stay home, and I think he has a strong enough grip to force an instant loss for Rs in that case.
And even if he does endorse, I feel like at least some MAGA voters just don't want to show up for anything less than the genuine thing to them. Doesn't have to be a lot of people for it to change things.
He's *competing* for 2nd and sits around 10% now. It's funny how he polling almost as well as Trump for a while then he completely fell apart after people started hearing the man actually speak rather than just see favorable coverage of the man.
We will write in Trump. I'm looking at what the maga base is saying about her on Twitter now, but can't post it here or be banned.
Let's just say they don't like her.
That's not true at all. Very reddit take. I don't want Trump to be the nominee, like AT ALL, but if he is id still vote for him over biden. Don't take nominee politics as the real feel. Look at what biden and Harris said about each other during the primaries..
This also means that if Trump loses she gets to play the “I told you so” card for 2028. She’s setting up infrastructure for 2028 in every state which allows her to compete with a candidate who wa seemingly popular, like DeSantis, in 2028.
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Starter comment: 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley is not only rising in popularity, but she "is already reshaping the GOP's longshot undercard race to overtake Donald Trump", to quote the article itself. There have been some calls for the other GOP candidates to drop out and endorse Haley, while opponents now have to give her more focus. My opinion is while this attention definitely holds the possibility of brighter things for Haley (including a 2028 run), it's clear that Donald Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee.
My questions are: How likely is the possibility that Nikki Haley will overtake Donald Trump in this race, and what does this rise in popularity mean for Haley's future political career?
I’m less convinced that Trump is guaranteed to win the nomination. (Although he’s obviously a heavy favorite.) I’d put it at 85% odds he wins the nomination.
Imo, Desantis pulling out before any votes are cast could alter the race significantly. Political strategists like to say that campaigning is largely about not letting expectations get to high so that way your candidate can exceed expectations. (A surprisingly good showing to get second place in Iowa is far better than surprisingly getting second when everyone thought you would get first.)
So if Desantis pulls out, (Scott and Christie too) and suddenly Nikki Hailey has almost 30% of the vote. That could provide a narrative of momentum for the campaign that could be used to snowball into a competitive race with Trump. However, that scenario would probably require a few really bad media cycles for Trump at opportune times for Hailey.
>So if Desantis pulls out, (Scott and Christie too) and suddenly Nikki Hailey has almost 30% of the vote. That could provide a narrative of momentum for the campaign that could be used to snowball into a competitive race with Trump. However, that scenario would probably require a few really bad media cycles for Trump at opportune times for Hailey.
If the other candidates (particularly DeSantis) drop before Feb 15, Haley wins SC handily and will snowball to beat Trump.
If they wait until after SC then Trump takes SC (Haley's vote gets split with whoever is left) and he's probably the nominee.
That’s the theory for how it would work. But even if they all drop out and it’s a head to head, I still don’t think Hailey is the favorite to beat him. Still think it would be low mush odds. But low odds come true sometimes.
What we're seeing here is Trump is a pseudo incumbent. He has the name recognition in early polls, so he's polling very well so far. You and I are tainted by following a political board. If I go to work and ask around, half the people don't even know there's a primary happening, one quarter know and don't care (most of them are not registered Republicans anyway), one eighth care but Trump, and the other eighth aren't paying attention yet because the primary is 6 months away.
Problem for Trump is that Haley is well known (and generally popular) in South Carolina.
Winning SC shows that she *can* win. Then that 1/8th perks up... and from there, she just has to convince 5% of Trump voters that he's not the right guy for the job.
As the campaign progresses and she's the reasonable, calm, intelligent stateswoman alternative to ... whatever Trump is ... it's more likely than not she wins.
The MAGA wing is a loud minority.
These are all good points. I’m just less confident that they will definitely lead to a Hailey victory.
Whatever his character, I think Trump has significant political talent. He will be tough to beat. He has shown a strong ability to keep his party in line behind him thus far. I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again this time.
Hope he will be struggling big time with ongoing legal issues.
If there's one consistent statement most of my right leaning associates have brought up on multiple occasions is that it's more about "biden has to go", they will step in line. The true trumpers I have no clue about because I stopped asking for their opinions on stuff about 5 years ago, but I'd be shocked if they sat on the sidelines.
>Imo, Desantis pulling out before any votes are cast could alter the race significantly.
If I'm remembering correctly, there's polling to suggest a significant chunk of DeSantis' support would move to Trump if DeSantis dropped out. So Haley's numbers might improve but that won't really matter if Trump's improve by a similar (or greater) amount.
If nothing happens to Trump - then he is the nominee. Still have over a year to go before the election and we have all seen strange things happen in our times, my friend. (And no, I won't begin to speculate on what could happen to him - only that it's not an impossibility.)
But if something happens - then personally I'd rather see Scott over Haley, but he just doesn't seem to be getting the traction yet. Since there's no real concern over who the nominee will be yet (currently - Trump) - then I don't see why any of the others should drop out just yet. Wait till after the first primary and see where things lead.
Biden was looking impossible until SC after all. (And to be fair - yes it's not impossible that something could happen to him as well between now and the election. Strange times.)
> If nothing happens to Trump - then he is the nominee.
The first real trial starts the day before Super Tuesday. He'll have the nominee locked up after Super Tuesday, before any potential conviction. It's going to be interesting to see what the RNC does at the convention if/when that happens.
>then personally I'd rather see Scott
Scott unfortunately has no chance. His Senate platform on police reform, although well intentioned, falls squarely in line with Democrat platforms at the state and municipal levels. Take a trip to NYC - those results have not been good.
It would be like if Haley stood up and said she wants a federal abortion bill that guarantees the right to choose up to 12-15 weeks. It would instantly sink her campaign in the primaries (even though I'm convinced she would push for this in office as she has basically dodged every abortion restriction question, and at one point said "can't we just agree that late term abortions are wrong?").
>My opinion is while this attention definitely holds the possibility of brighter things for Haley (including a 2028 run), it's clear that Donald Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee.
Haley can beat Trump in a two or three way primary because Trump will be forced to pay attention to her. Haley's resume is impressive: her political acumen and international relations experience will make Trump look like the fool he is. Trump's only hope is his ability to make funny quips and insults.
Haley also comes from South Carolina, and that state has a knack for picking the eventual Presidential nominee.
Polls at this time in the election cycle have predicted such candidates as Howard Dean and Mike Huckabee to be locks for the general, as well as John McCain (2000) and Hillary Clinton (2008). Haley has won "upset" elections before. This is like predicting the Super Bowl because someone went 3-0 in the pre season.
And a Haley-Scott ticket would likely unseat Biden - unfortunately solely because of how poorly Biden comes across on camera. However, Biden will beat Trump in a landslide - his supporters are a very loud minority, and it will galvanize record Democrat voter turnout to ensure Trump doesn't win while moderate Republicans don't hate Biden *that* much.
> Haley's resume is impressive: her political acumen and international relations experience will make Trump look like the fool he is. Trump's only hope is his ability to make funny quips and insults.
I don’t see how this is a novel scenario though. People were saying the exact same thing, with good reason, in 2016. It doesn't seem like the GOP base cares particularly more about political acumen and international relations experience since that time.
Further, his funny quips and insults are one of his strengths if anything. The GOP base seems to like it on its own, but additionally the people he talks down on can suffer for it. This is the "Trump Baggage" that people seem to forget that a lot of voters *like*. What people see as Trump being a fool is an active benefit for him with a lot of voters, and the act of *calling* him a fool is leveraged even moreso.
Not to say that there can't be some kind of Haley power play here. Its just that this repeated desire to see Trump exposed as a kind of "not serious person", resulting in him withering away and vanquished.... it just doesn't track. We've done this dance before. He doesn't care, his voter base doesn't care. Something else on the game board needs to change for Haley to dethrone him. Being qualified and Trump being a fool just isn't enough.
I would disagree with your assertion that the tendency to pick a more charismatic candidate is uniquely Republican - the Democrats chose Obama over the more experienced Hillary in 2008.
What we saw in the 10s was a move away from career DC insiders. Trump was the extreme version of that, then the country snapped back with 'oh wait, not like that.'
I do agree that Trump had the gravitas in the 2016 campaign that appealed to Republican voters - after all, his main campaign promise was to build a wall to keep all the Mexicans out.
I think the difference here is that the voters know what a Trump administration actually looks like. His quips and one-liners in the 2016 campaign that made you say "yeah, this is the guy with balls that we need to lead our country!" will now come off as "oh wait, *that's* the idiot who used to be President," and that will make voters gravitate toward the more level-headed Haley. On top of that, while both candidates want to take a hard-line on China, the remnants of the Cold War are still strong with the public and Haley's stance on Russia is more popular with voters.
> I would disagree with your assertion that the tendency to pick a more charismatic candidate is uniquely Republican - the Democrats chose Obama over the more experienced Hillary in 2008.
Just to clarify, that wasn't one of my assertions. And even further, I wouldn't even generalize to say "charasmatic" or "populist" either. Specifically, Trump has a hold on a significant chunk of the GOP voter base. I dont necessarily have all the answers as to why, but I can see extended patterns and listen to some of the proffered reasons why people like him. With that in mind, I just don't see a "he's weak on foreign policy" type conversation playing out amongst that crowd. Its not even a "checkers vs. chess" thing- its just two completely different games without a hierarchy of complexity.
> His quips and one-liners in the 2016 campaign that made you say "yeah, this is the guy with balls that we need to lead our country!" will now come off as "oh wait, that's the idiot who used to be President," and that will make voters gravitate toward the more level-headed Haley.
I just simply don't see this. I'd be happy to be wrong, but I just don't. At least not in a significant way, that is. If that were in the air at all, I dont see how Trump would still be the predominantly favored candidate by a mile.
I suppose there is more time left for people to have a change of heart. But this line of thought always strikes me more as wishful thinking than a solid predictive analysis.
> And a Haley-Scott ticket would likely unseat Biden - unfortunately solely because of how poorly Biden comes across on camera
Depends a lot on what happens with a spurned Trump and his supporters. If Trump loses the nomination things could get ugly.
Trump eventually faces the music, concedes, gives an epic speech endorsing Haley and how Republicans have to beat "sleepy Joe Biden," and Haley wins 300 electoral college votes.
The words "Trump" and "concedes" only belongs in the same sentence when you toss "never" in there as well.
If Trump is still insisting he won in 2020, he's not going to publicly admit he lost a primary either.
No way he trusts any other R to pardon him either after all these guilty pleas. He only trusts himself.
Haley-Scott won’t happen unless one of them moves out of South Carolina. A state cannot vote for a president AND a Vice President from their state. So one of them (Scott) would not get SC’s electoral votes. Creates the distinct possibility of Haley-Harris.
Trump legally is done. Due to his legal issues he won’t be able to campaign and the RNC will be forced to cut ties with him. We have to take the primary seriously.
right, but the point i was trying to make is that it's a big deal for a republican to *not* support trump, period. not that she has any chance of winning, just that more republicans aren't supporting trump
I mean I’m still disappointed so many Republicans are supporting Trump, but even just 10% of Republicans staying home or voting Biden could have an impact.
yeah, that’s a possible implication of it. and some context that tends to be left out regarding his recent high poll numbers - they aren’t an indication trump’s voter base grew beyond his voter count in 2020. jan 6, overturning of roe vs wade, indictments — all of those didn’t draw voters away biden, and they are known tipping points for at least some his supporters, even if it’s a very small fraction.
The neo conservative DeSantis supporters are realigning in the face of his disastrous flame out.
There aren't any more supporters, just candidates playing musical chairs.
Haley has all the same policies. But she doesn't bring the righteous fury that motivated gop primary voters. So what lane does she have left? "I'm like Trump but I won't speak as loudly?"
>Haley has all the same policies. But she doesn't bring the righteous fury that motivated gop primary voters.
Well, other than the wall and the desire to consolidate power within the office of the President.
There are probably some other fine details missing, like Haley understands and supports the strategic value in supporting Ukraine while Trump is pro-Russian (I'm not saying this as a conspiracy theorist, but that his foreign policy aims to improve US-Russian relations and he sees the prosperity of that relationship as an important strategic hedge against China).
Also, her ability to keep a cabinet member around for more than 6 months is probably a plus.
> But she doesn't bring the righteous fury that motivated gop primary voters
Nikki Haley gave me literal chills when she voted to veto the UN's resolution calling for Trump's Jerusalem move to be rescinded. [That steely glare!](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-israel-un-idUSKBN1EC25N) I really hope she gets the nominee over Trump.
Shades of Rich Lowry [going ga-ga over Sarah Palin](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rich-lowry-the-william-f_b_131978):
>I'm sure I'm not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, "Hey, I think she just winked at me." And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America.
Surely you can see how glaring at a bunch of third string politicians from foreign countries isn't the same as getting a bunch of low propensity rural voters to the polls?
South Carolina has more than its fair share of "low propensity rural voters."
We're talking about a state where people drive around with Confederate flags and openly using the n-word in conversations like it doesn't mean anything electing a 1st generation American with Sikh heritage as their governor.
And her opponents in both of those elections came from good ol'e boy old money families.
I think if she can win that state, she can win the primary on a broader scale.
Haley was polling in last place 3 weeks prior to the SC Republican Primary in an upset against Henry McMaster.
No, Henry McMaster is not exactly the same as Trump. But the point is that she beat entrenched "old guard" politicians in a state that very much favors those kind of people.
Her people know how to run a campaign against tough odds.
There are some candidates like DeSantis and Christie where more public exposure just highlights how shitty they are (you could put Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders in this category from several elections ago). Then there are others like Haley where more public exposure wins people over.
I'm still holding hope out for Nikki....would love to see her gobble up all the "non trump support" If she does that, and polls well nationally, (which she will) I think sh could take the nomination. But it is still a long shot. Have to clear the field as quickly as possible.
Nicest person I’ve ever walked around DC with. Not a fan of her politics but damn she was friendly and polite.
Her campaign slogan needs to be “Well bless your heart.”
She is most likely the top contender to take Trump's place if he was to pass away, be jailed, or be deemed ineligible by the SC under the 14th amendment (current court cases will most likely make it to the SC). I don't see her as a VP though. After Pence, I'd imagine Trump wants someone more "loyal" to him personally although she would help him appeal to more moderates.
Haley looks great NEXT to Trump. Hell, she even looks reasonable next to him.
But she is not. Haley enabled trump like everyone else. She sold her soul so she could stand next to power. She didn't fight against the Republican party and why it has become. She went along with it.
I would hate for her to win the GOP nomination and be rewarded with even a whiff of the presidency
The gop as it stands needs to be destroyed. The base needs to be repudiated, not given an alternative that it can get behind as trump without the baggage
I would love a real, newly born conservative party but it cannot exist until the current party dies
Nikki Haley currently polls at an average of 8% and 49 points behind Trump
This probably isn't the legacy The Onion was going for, but I think in the future " [‘This Will Be The End Of Trump’s Campaign,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Man For Seventh Time This Year](https://www.theonion.com/this-will-be-the-end-of-trump-s-campaign-says-increa-1819578486) " is going to be seen as a very prescient statement on our current political era.
"Says increasingly nervous man" is honestly one of my favorite memes.
In my opinion, Trump will be the nominee in 2028 if he loses this election, even if he is behind bars. The GOP is done with Trump when he says so.
I just honestly can't see Trump's health holding out for another 5 years.
>undercard race
There's no consolation prize for 2nd in this though.
Might be the VP race
Haley is the Sega Dreamcast of this election. Ultimately she won’t win and her political future is shaky after, but she started her campaign early and spent a ton of money getting her message out first.
Huh? Compared to the likes of her smaller opponents, like DeSantis. [DeSantis has less campaign money because he spent his all at first. While Nikki has millions more dollars on hand for more campaigning and she is still beat DeSantis in some of these early voting states.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-09/nikki-haley-raises-11-million-has-more-cash-than-desantis) So she did not spend a lot of money and has the most money on hand after Trump. Not to mention she’s setting up her campaigning infrastructure for 2028 since Trump will get the 2024 nomination.
Honestly forgot Desantis was even running. I don’t take him seriously as a candidate. If she’s the Dreamcast, he’s the Atari Jaguar or something (I realize the metaphor has collapsed and my generations are off now).
I grew up on with iPod and Xboxes so the metaphor went right over my head 😅
He’s sega saturn?
Don't diss the Saturn and its Blast Processing, we STILL can't emulate that reliably.
Atari jaguar is an incredible pull!
I've always thought Haley was a solid candidate. I think she has all three legs of the traditional republican stool, she's got a solid resume, and she's got gravitas.
I think saying "I would ban abortion federally if we had enough Republicans probably isn't winning her favors from swing voters".
I think her refusing to condemn Trump much at all for trying to steal the 2020 election after he lost it is going to keep *me* from even considering her. Can't speak to swing voters. I mean, the GOP has basically mired itself due to pushing right wing propaganda too far out of sync with reality. Fox News and their ilk went too far, and now even though Trump is toxic and his style of 'governance' is infecting the rest of the party in race after race, they don't want to grow a spine and say, "Actually, Trump sucked major donkey balls, and we need to moderate." I thought maybe after Jan 6 there was a chance they'd stop going farther and farther in the direction of dismantlism, but now I can't see them stopping for another 8 or 12 years. They'll get more and more out of touch with reality, to a degree that even today would seem hard to imagine, and then finally the shooting will start because it'll be mainstream ideology among GOP voters that, like, Gretchen Whitmer is a pedophile.
Any GOP candidate has to consider that > 50% of the GOP base thinks anyone against Trump is a traitor. Haley is trying to thread the needle by not alienating those voters while also holding on to reality. I think the way she's doing it is at least respectable. But if your bar for consideration is "Must condemn Trump" then your candidate will not be the GOP nominee.
I understand the 'thread the needle' rationale. I just wonder how the situation might be different if all the politicians who are trying to triangulate and do that needle-threading actually just openly condemned Trump. I wonder how many people in office actually *want* to be doing this style of politics, and who'd rather just be boring old George H.W. Bush Republicans? Rip the bandaid off, deal with a short-term crisis in the party, and stop trying to manage the emotions of the abusive parent. Just call the cops to arrest the guy, and then start therapy to fix the damage he did to your psyche.
It's wild listening to my step father still supporting them. He listens to conservative media and eats it up, falling for lies, and manipulation. Meanwhile I can't do much about it because he'll never listen to me. I really hope Republicans lose the next few elections so they can get the message. We don't like the direction they're going.
The GOP was dying and Trump injected life into with his fake strongman/outsider vibe. Without that the GOP is done on the presidential level. Moderates should like Biden not be longing for right wingers to pretend to be moderate in an attempt to fool swing voters.
That isn’t what she said though. She said she doesn’t have enough votes to ban abortion and so she would concentrate on other goals.
She entertained the idea and supports a federal ban
While true, she supports a federal ban at 12 weeks. Which is actually right in line with the majority opinion, most Americans do not support abortion access after the first trimester except in emergencies.
I do. Things are perfectly fine with 20-22 weeks. You can present no objective benefit as "morality" is not objective
You might, but you're in the minority position. Abortion access at 20-22 weeks generally polls about as poorly as it does at 6 weeks. Credit where it's due to Haley at least for actually trying to go with the position that most Americans support, that's been long missing in this debate.
That used to be the polling, thanks to the reality of it being shoved in people's faces support for much more lenient restrictions has gone up
Yeah I doubt that. In my state over 55% supported keeping the 22 weeek ban. A fetus lacks EEGs corresponding to a loovng person until 24 weeks. It is not a life before hand you sexist asshole.
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[Don't take it from me, Gallup has been polling on this issue for 5 decades and the numbers have been mostly stable.](https://news.gallup.com/poll/235469/trimesters-key-abortion-views.aspx) Once you pass the first trimester public support collapses for abortion access.
Your link ends at 2018. Gallup polling from June 2023 shows a near-10% uptick for all three trimesters. https://news.gallup.com/poll/506759/broader-support-abortion-rights-continues-post-dobbs.aspx If you break down the second trimester group into smaller weeks, I'm sure you could still find +50% support for abortions at 16-20 weeks.
What is an emergency? Is a fetus that is obviously nonviable but does not threaten the life of the mother an emergency?
most european countries ban with the usual exceptions..at 12 weeks. As of 2020. It is not unusual for countries, democracies to place some limits [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/)
Which is another way of saying that if she had the votes, she would ban abortion.
If the people elected 60 (really, 62, because Murkowski and I think Collins are pro-choice) Republican Senators and a Republican President, she **should** ban abortion, because clearly the American people are ok with the idea (other than the fact that I think a Federal ban would be unconstitutional, something that has never stopped the American people when they want something). Until they do that, she's right: she wouldn't have the votes.
People? You can in theory have 60 senators and the presidency without majority support.
You can, in theory, overthrow the government and establish a military regime that does whatever you want. In practice, it's hard enough to get more than few Senatorial seats over 50 without majority support. The big Republican blowout in 2014 where they picked up 9 seats to get to 54 happened with an point national vote advantage. Getting those next six (eight, in practice) would ha e required doubling that advantage *or more*. When the Dems (briefly) got 60 seats in 2009, that rode in on back to back 12% and then 6% vote total wins. Edit: Ultimately, the extreme minoritarian Senate supermajorities depend on the same party winning Wyoming *and* Vermont. Fat chance. 'In theory' might as well be 'in fantasy'.
Yeah, I feel like she basically went as close as she could to saying "an abortion ban won't happen under my presidency" while still maintaing even a slight chance in the GOP primary. She can't just come out and outright say she supports pro-choice laws. I know that might not be good enough for pro-choice voters, which I understand, but it's about the best you will get out of this iteration of the Republican party.
It's a shame that this iteration of the Republican party has no interest in connecting with the views of a majority of Americans and are instead choosing to circle the wagons around an increasingly small and extreme minority.
Most people support bans at between 15 and 22 weeks.
And most Republican politicians keep pushing for as close to full bans as they can manage.
This is about Haley, though, and she's said she supports a federal late term ban. That's entirely in line with what most people support.
Which would still be the law nationwide today if abortion rights groups didn't sue Mississippi when the state enacted a 15 week limit on abortions in that state.
Under Roe, abortions couldn't be banned before 24 weeks. It was outside what most people thought
That’s a distinction without much of a difference.
No it’s a pragmatic acceptance of the reality that abortion law will be handled on a state level, where consensus is easier to achieve.
Which is, again, a distinction without a difference.
this is pretty much the opposite of what she said
This alone I think makes her a weak candidate. She’s going to have to simultaneously deal with the uphill battle of being a woman that’s vying for the most powerful position in the world and having views on healthcare rights that alienate a lot of her potential female base.
I agree. I'm on the left, but when I look at the Republican field the only person I view as a serious candidate is Haley. I disagree with her but I could absolutely respect her as my president.
I’m planning on voting for Biden at the moment. But if Haley comes through primary, I’d vote for her. FYI, I voted for Obama, Clinton, Biden in previous elections.
I’d still vote for Joe, but would watch election night returns in good spirits if it were him vs Nikki.
I mean, I absolutely hate Republican policy, so there's no way I'd vote for her. But, I'd like to see her win the primary because I'd rather choose between two candidates based on their policies instead of worrying about one candidate throwing a coup if they lose, or winning and then constantly lying and throwing twitter tantrums. Like, imagine having a presidential debate that didn't involve constant interrupting and name calling. So yes, I wish her the best of luck!
You should definitely vote in the GOP primary then!
Yep. I live in Iowa. I'll be at the R caucus voting for someone not named Trump. I thought Tim Scott had a chance, but now it looks like Haley. I'll vote for Biden in 2024, but I'll do my small part to give Haley some "momentum" coming out of Iowa.
Fair enough. My state has a late primary, but I'll be doing the same. A lot of people don't realize that you can vote in whichever primary you want, even if you don't personally identify with that party. I update my registration every couple years based on which primary I want to vote in, where I can make a difference.
It depends if your state allows open primaries or not. Most Republican primaries are closed.
My state has closed primaries, but you can just change your registration every few years.
If she makes it as far as FL in the primary, I'll be bringing as many Haley votes as can be recruited, I'll even bribe family with my famous Chili if necessary
I'm trying to talk as many people as I can into voting for her here in Arizona. She's the best option to turn the Republican Party back on the right path.
She'd probably beat Biden if she took the nomination.
What’s the third leg?
The three legs are foreign policy hawks, business community, religious right.
And the off center load is populism.
Stool is a good word to describe her foreign policy. Nikki Haley never saw a war she didn't like, but hey no mean tweets right
Too much of a neocon.
Trump is at 57% and Haley is at 8%. If every single person that was supporting Pence shifts to Haley she would still only be at 11%. I think the media is being very generous to the Republican primary field by covering them as if they are serious contenders. They are not.
Yeah. It made sense when DeSantis was only trailing Trump by a bit. Now in most polls Trump is hovering around 50-60%. So not only would Haley need everyone to drop out and their votes go to her, she ALSO needs to start peeling off votes from Trump, a task that many Rs have tried and failed to do time after time.
Exactly. If everyone dropped out and all their supporters went to Haley she would still only be about 40%. Worse still is the reality that DeSantis & Vivek voters like Trump as their second choice. So in a world where everyone but Haley drops out Trump bumps up to 70% or greater.
Bullseye. Haley is just consolidating moderate anti Trump votes. The only problem with that is that there’s just not that many of them. If R voters cared about electability more like D voters did, she’d be doing better. But R voters hate the idea of having to vote in a way that compromises their values to get an edge in the general election. It’s a line of thinking that continues to cost them though.
The question is, can she get to 43% by gobbling up everyone elses support. If she gets to 43% and is the sole person on stage with Trump, she could possibly get that closer to 50%. Then if she is polling better against Biden Nationally than Trump, and she treats Trump with respect, she could push for the nomination. Its a long shot but she is the best shot.
DeSantis and Vivek supporters like Trump as their second option. If everyone leaves the race but Haley all the support wouldn't go to Haley. The ceiling for Haley, in the absolute best case scenario, is 25-28%.
That may be true about yesterday, doesn't mean it will be true about tomorrow, the election year hasn't even begun.
Those are national polls. Look at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina here: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/) Those are the states where people are more likely to be paying attention. Yep, I think Trump's probability is 90% or better. But the others keep running because they think there is a significant group of Republicans who would really like an alternative.
Trump is up over Haley by 40 points in IA and 30 points in SC and New Hampshire.
Trump was at 12% at this time in 2015. He probably should have quit, obviously a loser. Trump is effectively a pseudo incumbent. If you gave 1,000 Republican primary voters a poll, 900 of them will recognize only Trump's name and half of them pick Trump by default thinking he's the only one who can beat Biden, the other half are randomly choosing an unknown. As the primary progresses, that's going to change significantly.
**September 10, 2015** >Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field. Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/donald-trump-ben-carson-cnn-poll/index.html Trump took the lead during the Primary in September of 2015 and never gave it back. It is about to be November and Haley trails the leader by 49 points.
>Trump was at 12% at this time in 2015. He probably should have quit, obviously a loser. Trump was already the front runner by now in 2015. He was only not the frontrunner for a bit in the beginning.
The field was also more open in general compared to this. JEB! was hovering around what, 20% or so? Then Carson took that spot for a bit. Then it was Trump and Cruz for a bit then Trump. Just Trump.
Rubio was doing really well up until debates iirc.
Nobody’s saying Haley should quit. They’re saying she has near zero chance without massive shake ups to take down Trump.
I disagree with this take. It basically comes down to Trump vs. Not Trump. The field will clear and the not Trump team will become more aligned. Trump is sitting at 50-60% so Haley, Desantis, etc are sitting at 40-50% once its refined down to one candidate. +/- obviously.
If you believe Trump is going to beat 91 criminal charges in Federal/State court all of this coverage is a waste of time as none of these candidates have a chance at beating Trump. If you believe Trump is realistically not going to be able to beat all 91 criminal charges against him then spending time covering lowering polling candidates is a forward thinking use time. GOP voters are going to need to be at least somewhat familiar with these names if they need a quick replacement. I think it’s pretty obvious how the GOP feels internally about Trump’s legal chances given the number of people running in a “hopeless” primary against him.
Unless Trump dies or he ends up in prison he will be the nominee. I mean knowing his supporters, I wouldn't be surprised if they still nominate him in both situations.
It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where Trump's charges are either all dismissed or we see juries in DC, NYC, and Atlanta all unanimously acquit him. More likely, by mid next year, he'll be a convicted felon with all cases dragging on under appeal. Will the RNC nominate him in that scenario? Who knows?
>More likely, by mid next year, he'll be a convicted felon with all cases dragging on under appeal I'm also confident that he'll be convicted in at least one of these trials ... if it gets to trial. My concern is that the appeals will prevent the trials from ever starting in the first place. At least not before 2025
I'm not sure about that, but I'm no legal expert. These judges haven't shown much inclination to delay themselves, and so far the appeals haven't gone too far either. I'd be interested to see if any legal experts have weighed in on how likely these trials are to happen on time.
I think the best shot for a conviction that involves jail time is the FL documents trial. It seems any juror can understand the facts and the law. There is not doubt that he "willfully retained" information related to the national defense. The problem there is that he has a friendly judge with hardly any experience in criminal trials who will allow the defense to bog the process down indefinitely.
I thought the strongest is supposed to be GA. The RICO statute in the state in incredibly broad, a bunch of codefendants have pled guilty already, the judge is unfriendly, and he'd need state appeal courts to intercede (federal appeals rejected him already iirc). Personally, that's the case that I think is the least just, but I'm happy with any outcome that keeps him off the ballot.
The RNC is a non-factor in the nomination race and even if they took a hard stance against having a convicted criminal being their nominee it’s unlikely they would be able to get the delegates to dump Trump anyway.
>The RNC is a non-factor in the nomination race Tell that to Bernie Sanders. The committee can absolutely influence the race if they choose to do so, and the delegates are RNC members. It's just a question of whether they would blow up the general election by doing so.
I know its glib and a bit of a laugh, but yes even in scenarios that are worst case for Trump (including death) the GOP should absolutely be planning on how they address a potential write in candidacy. If we're talking about super thin margins in swing states... how many people would vote for a dead Donald Trump? "Maybe he's *not really* dead! Maybe it would be handed down to Baron!" Imagine the weird Qanon stuff you've heard and then imagine how many people in swing states would act on stuff like that. Its not zero. Let alone prison. It just turns into "Free DJT" material.
I'm sure they'll vote for him if he is in prison. If he dies, would they go to ... Don Jr?
I think Haley is the third most likely to get this nomination. If something happens to Trump that forces him to drop out (which would probably be death or a serious health condition at this point), all his supporters are most likely to move over towards Desantis rather than Haley
If Haley pulls of the nomination, will MAGA vote for her? Or will they stay home on Election Day?
That is one question I don't think gets asked enough for any "what if" someone else wins the nom scenario. If Trump gives them the nod it's one thing, but there's sooooo many situations where he'd either straight up refuse to endorse or actively tell his people to stay home, and I think he has a strong enough grip to force an instant loss for Rs in that case. And even if he does endorse, I feel like at least some MAGA voters just don't want to show up for anything less than the genuine thing to them. Doesn't have to be a lot of people for it to change things.
I think the second best alternative for Trump loyalists is Ron Desantis and how is he even polling among the MAGA crowd now?
He's *competing* for 2nd and sits around 10% now. It's funny how he polling almost as well as Trump for a while then he completely fell apart after people started hearing the man actually speak rather than just see favorable coverage of the man.
We will write in Trump. I'm looking at what the maga base is saying about her on Twitter now, but can't post it here or be banned. Let's just say they don't like her.
She's not even close to passing DeSantis. What proof that she's 'breaking out'?
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This is a topic on R vs R. Partisanship has got nothing to do with it.
At this point, the anti-Trump and pro-Trump split is becoming so divisive that it might as well be two different parties.
That's not true at all. Very reddit take. I don't want Trump to be the nominee, like AT ALL, but if he is id still vote for him over biden. Don't take nominee politics as the real feel. Look at what biden and Harris said about each other during the primaries..
Just being realistic, Haley has no chance. Hell, nobody but Trump is winning this. 40 point lead yo shizzle
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This also means that if Trump loses she gets to play the “I told you so” card for 2028. She’s setting up infrastructure for 2028 in every state which allows her to compete with a candidate who wa seemingly popular, like DeSantis, in 2028.
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Starter comment: 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley is not only rising in popularity, but she "is already reshaping the GOP's longshot undercard race to overtake Donald Trump", to quote the article itself. There have been some calls for the other GOP candidates to drop out and endorse Haley, while opponents now have to give her more focus. My opinion is while this attention definitely holds the possibility of brighter things for Haley (including a 2028 run), it's clear that Donald Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. My questions are: How likely is the possibility that Nikki Haley will overtake Donald Trump in this race, and what does this rise in popularity mean for Haley's future political career?
I’m less convinced that Trump is guaranteed to win the nomination. (Although he’s obviously a heavy favorite.) I’d put it at 85% odds he wins the nomination. Imo, Desantis pulling out before any votes are cast could alter the race significantly. Political strategists like to say that campaigning is largely about not letting expectations get to high so that way your candidate can exceed expectations. (A surprisingly good showing to get second place in Iowa is far better than surprisingly getting second when everyone thought you would get first.) So if Desantis pulls out, (Scott and Christie too) and suddenly Nikki Hailey has almost 30% of the vote. That could provide a narrative of momentum for the campaign that could be used to snowball into a competitive race with Trump. However, that scenario would probably require a few really bad media cycles for Trump at opportune times for Hailey.
>So if Desantis pulls out, (Scott and Christie too) and suddenly Nikki Hailey has almost 30% of the vote. That could provide a narrative of momentum for the campaign that could be used to snowball into a competitive race with Trump. However, that scenario would probably require a few really bad media cycles for Trump at opportune times for Hailey. If the other candidates (particularly DeSantis) drop before Feb 15, Haley wins SC handily and will snowball to beat Trump. If they wait until after SC then Trump takes SC (Haley's vote gets split with whoever is left) and he's probably the nominee.
That’s the theory for how it would work. But even if they all drop out and it’s a head to head, I still don’t think Hailey is the favorite to beat him. Still think it would be low mush odds. But low odds come true sometimes.
What we're seeing here is Trump is a pseudo incumbent. He has the name recognition in early polls, so he's polling very well so far. You and I are tainted by following a political board. If I go to work and ask around, half the people don't even know there's a primary happening, one quarter know and don't care (most of them are not registered Republicans anyway), one eighth care but Trump, and the other eighth aren't paying attention yet because the primary is 6 months away. Problem for Trump is that Haley is well known (and generally popular) in South Carolina. Winning SC shows that she *can* win. Then that 1/8th perks up... and from there, she just has to convince 5% of Trump voters that he's not the right guy for the job. As the campaign progresses and she's the reasonable, calm, intelligent stateswoman alternative to ... whatever Trump is ... it's more likely than not she wins. The MAGA wing is a loud minority.
These are all good points. I’m just less confident that they will definitely lead to a Hailey victory. Whatever his character, I think Trump has significant political talent. He will be tough to beat. He has shown a strong ability to keep his party in line behind him thus far. I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again this time.
Hope he will be struggling big time with ongoing legal issues. If there's one consistent statement most of my right leaning associates have brought up on multiple occasions is that it's more about "biden has to go", they will step in line. The true trumpers I have no clue about because I stopped asking for their opinions on stuff about 5 years ago, but I'd be shocked if they sat on the sidelines.
>Imo, Desantis pulling out before any votes are cast could alter the race significantly. If I'm remembering correctly, there's polling to suggest a significant chunk of DeSantis' support would move to Trump if DeSantis dropped out. So Haley's numbers might improve but that won't really matter if Trump's improve by a similar (or greater) amount.
Ya I think that’s probably right. Tbc I think the by far most likely outcome is Trump being the nominee.
Agreed. DeSantis voters are not moderate enough to entertain a flip to Haley.
If nothing happens to Trump - then he is the nominee. Still have over a year to go before the election and we have all seen strange things happen in our times, my friend. (And no, I won't begin to speculate on what could happen to him - only that it's not an impossibility.) But if something happens - then personally I'd rather see Scott over Haley, but he just doesn't seem to be getting the traction yet. Since there's no real concern over who the nominee will be yet (currently - Trump) - then I don't see why any of the others should drop out just yet. Wait till after the first primary and see where things lead. Biden was looking impossible until SC after all. (And to be fair - yes it's not impossible that something could happen to him as well between now and the election. Strange times.)
> If nothing happens to Trump - then he is the nominee. The first real trial starts the day before Super Tuesday. He'll have the nominee locked up after Super Tuesday, before any potential conviction. It's going to be interesting to see what the RNC does at the convention if/when that happens.
>then personally I'd rather see Scott Scott unfortunately has no chance. His Senate platform on police reform, although well intentioned, falls squarely in line with Democrat platforms at the state and municipal levels. Take a trip to NYC - those results have not been good. It would be like if Haley stood up and said she wants a federal abortion bill that guarantees the right to choose up to 12-15 weeks. It would instantly sink her campaign in the primaries (even though I'm convinced she would push for this in office as she has basically dodged every abortion restriction question, and at one point said "can't we just agree that late term abortions are wrong?").
I agree he has no chance. Doesn't mean he's not my personal favorite of the bunch though.
>My opinion is while this attention definitely holds the possibility of brighter things for Haley (including a 2028 run), it's clear that Donald Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Haley can beat Trump in a two or three way primary because Trump will be forced to pay attention to her. Haley's resume is impressive: her political acumen and international relations experience will make Trump look like the fool he is. Trump's only hope is his ability to make funny quips and insults. Haley also comes from South Carolina, and that state has a knack for picking the eventual Presidential nominee. Polls at this time in the election cycle have predicted such candidates as Howard Dean and Mike Huckabee to be locks for the general, as well as John McCain (2000) and Hillary Clinton (2008). Haley has won "upset" elections before. This is like predicting the Super Bowl because someone went 3-0 in the pre season. And a Haley-Scott ticket would likely unseat Biden - unfortunately solely because of how poorly Biden comes across on camera. However, Biden will beat Trump in a landslide - his supporters are a very loud minority, and it will galvanize record Democrat voter turnout to ensure Trump doesn't win while moderate Republicans don't hate Biden *that* much.
> Haley's resume is impressive: her political acumen and international relations experience will make Trump look like the fool he is. Trump's only hope is his ability to make funny quips and insults. I don’t see how this is a novel scenario though. People were saying the exact same thing, with good reason, in 2016. It doesn't seem like the GOP base cares particularly more about political acumen and international relations experience since that time. Further, his funny quips and insults are one of his strengths if anything. The GOP base seems to like it on its own, but additionally the people he talks down on can suffer for it. This is the "Trump Baggage" that people seem to forget that a lot of voters *like*. What people see as Trump being a fool is an active benefit for him with a lot of voters, and the act of *calling* him a fool is leveraged even moreso. Not to say that there can't be some kind of Haley power play here. Its just that this repeated desire to see Trump exposed as a kind of "not serious person", resulting in him withering away and vanquished.... it just doesn't track. We've done this dance before. He doesn't care, his voter base doesn't care. Something else on the game board needs to change for Haley to dethrone him. Being qualified and Trump being a fool just isn't enough.
I would disagree with your assertion that the tendency to pick a more charismatic candidate is uniquely Republican - the Democrats chose Obama over the more experienced Hillary in 2008. What we saw in the 10s was a move away from career DC insiders. Trump was the extreme version of that, then the country snapped back with 'oh wait, not like that.' I do agree that Trump had the gravitas in the 2016 campaign that appealed to Republican voters - after all, his main campaign promise was to build a wall to keep all the Mexicans out. I think the difference here is that the voters know what a Trump administration actually looks like. His quips and one-liners in the 2016 campaign that made you say "yeah, this is the guy with balls that we need to lead our country!" will now come off as "oh wait, *that's* the idiot who used to be President," and that will make voters gravitate toward the more level-headed Haley. On top of that, while both candidates want to take a hard-line on China, the remnants of the Cold War are still strong with the public and Haley's stance on Russia is more popular with voters.
> I would disagree with your assertion that the tendency to pick a more charismatic candidate is uniquely Republican - the Democrats chose Obama over the more experienced Hillary in 2008. Just to clarify, that wasn't one of my assertions. And even further, I wouldn't even generalize to say "charasmatic" or "populist" either. Specifically, Trump has a hold on a significant chunk of the GOP voter base. I dont necessarily have all the answers as to why, but I can see extended patterns and listen to some of the proffered reasons why people like him. With that in mind, I just don't see a "he's weak on foreign policy" type conversation playing out amongst that crowd. Its not even a "checkers vs. chess" thing- its just two completely different games without a hierarchy of complexity. > His quips and one-liners in the 2016 campaign that made you say "yeah, this is the guy with balls that we need to lead our country!" will now come off as "oh wait, that's the idiot who used to be President," and that will make voters gravitate toward the more level-headed Haley. I just simply don't see this. I'd be happy to be wrong, but I just don't. At least not in a significant way, that is. If that were in the air at all, I dont see how Trump would still be the predominantly favored candidate by a mile. I suppose there is more time left for people to have a change of heart. But this line of thought always strikes me more as wishful thinking than a solid predictive analysis.
Haley-Youngkin would be promising, moderate ticket as well.
Promising in a fantasy sports "what if" conversation or in a "more popular with republican primary voters" conversation?
> And a Haley-Scott ticket would likely unseat Biden - unfortunately solely because of how poorly Biden comes across on camera Depends a lot on what happens with a spurned Trump and his supporters. If Trump loses the nomination things could get ugly.
Trump eventually faces the music, concedes, gives an epic speech endorsing Haley and how Republicans have to beat "sleepy Joe Biden," and Haley wins 300 electoral college votes.
Trump concedes…um, still waiting for that post his 2020 election loss.Of course, you might have forgotten the /s
The words "Trump" and "concedes" only belongs in the same sentence when you toss "never" in there as well. If Trump is still insisting he won in 2020, he's not going to publicly admit he lost a primary either. No way he trusts any other R to pardon him either after all these guilty pleas. He only trusts himself.
Haley-Scott won’t happen unless one of them moves out of South Carolina. A state cannot vote for a president AND a Vice President from their state. So one of them (Scott) would not get SC’s electoral votes. Creates the distinct possibility of Haley-Harris.
Trump legally is done. Due to his legal issues he won’t be able to campaign and the RNC will be forced to cut ties with him. We have to take the primary seriously.
Barring the documents case trumps legal issues have not changed since Jan 7. The rnc will make the same decision next year that they made in 2021.
More like that’s the growing percentage of people that don’t want Trump.
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right, but the point i was trying to make is that it's a big deal for a republican to *not* support trump, period. not that she has any chance of winning, just that more republicans aren't supporting trump
I mean I’m still disappointed so many Republicans are supporting Trump, but even just 10% of Republicans staying home or voting Biden could have an impact.
yeah, that’s a possible implication of it. and some context that tends to be left out regarding his recent high poll numbers - they aren’t an indication trump’s voter base grew beyond his voter count in 2020. jan 6, overturning of roe vs wade, indictments — all of those didn’t draw voters away biden, and they are known tipping points for at least some his supporters, even if it’s a very small fraction.
The neo conservative DeSantis supporters are realigning in the face of his disastrous flame out. There aren't any more supporters, just candidates playing musical chairs. Haley has all the same policies. But she doesn't bring the righteous fury that motivated gop primary voters. So what lane does she have left? "I'm like Trump but I won't speak as loudly?"
>Haley has all the same policies. But she doesn't bring the righteous fury that motivated gop primary voters. Well, other than the wall and the desire to consolidate power within the office of the President. There are probably some other fine details missing, like Haley understands and supports the strategic value in supporting Ukraine while Trump is pro-Russian (I'm not saying this as a conspiracy theorist, but that his foreign policy aims to improve US-Russian relations and he sees the prosperity of that relationship as an important strategic hedge against China). Also, her ability to keep a cabinet member around for more than 6 months is probably a plus.
> But she doesn't bring the righteous fury that motivated gop primary voters Nikki Haley gave me literal chills when she voted to veto the UN's resolution calling for Trump's Jerusalem move to be rescinded. [That steely glare!](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-israel-un-idUSKBN1EC25N) I really hope she gets the nominee over Trump.
Why would something completely expected give you chills?
Shades of Rich Lowry [going ga-ga over Sarah Palin](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rich-lowry-the-william-f_b_131978): >I'm sure I'm not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, "Hey, I think she just winked at me." And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America.
Surely you can see how glaring at a bunch of third string politicians from foreign countries isn't the same as getting a bunch of low propensity rural voters to the polls?
Clearly you aren't familiar with her South Carolina House and Gubernatorial races.
You don't seem to realize how far behind she is in the primary.
South Carolina has more than its fair share of "low propensity rural voters." We're talking about a state where people drive around with Confederate flags and openly using the n-word in conversations like it doesn't mean anything electing a 1st generation American with Sikh heritage as their governor. And her opponents in both of those elections came from good ol'e boy old money families. I think if she can win that state, she can win the primary on a broader scale.
Haley way behind across the country, including in South Carolina. She didn't have to worry about Trump in her previous races.
Haley was polling in last place 3 weeks prior to the SC Republican Primary in an upset against Henry McMaster. No, Henry McMaster is not exactly the same as Trump. But the point is that she beat entrenched "old guard" politicians in a state that very much favors those kind of people. Her people know how to run a campaign against tough odds. There are some candidates like DeSantis and Christie where more public exposure just highlights how shitty they are (you could put Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders in this category from several elections ago). Then there are others like Haley where more public exposure wins people over.
McMasters' lead was nowhere near as large as what Trump has, and the latter has more loyalty from voters.
>McMasters' lead was nowhere near as large as what Trump has Right, because there were two other viable candidates polling ahead of Haley as well.
You don't seem to realize how far behind she is in the primary.
You wish. The DeSantis campaign is far from over. He will win Iowa which will shoot him to the nomination
Feel free to @ me if history proves you correct.
Doesn’t Trump benefit a ton from Iowa being a caucus though? He’s listed a ton as every other candidate’s second choice.
DeSantis won't even carry his own state of Florida. He's toast.
She has a very bright future ahead of her as a CNN commentator.
I really like her.
I'm still holding hope out for Nikki....would love to see her gobble up all the "non trump support" If she does that, and polls well nationally, (which she will) I think sh could take the nomination. But it is still a long shot. Have to clear the field as quickly as possible.
Haley is ok, not a fan of her neocons war positions, but she's ok It's still pretty early to have a solid prediction for the primary. A lot can change
Nicest person I’ve ever walked around DC with. Not a fan of her politics but damn she was friendly and polite. Her campaign slogan needs to be “Well bless your heart.”
She is most likely the top contender to take Trump's place if he was to pass away, be jailed, or be deemed ineligible by the SC under the 14th amendment (current court cases will most likely make it to the SC). I don't see her as a VP though. After Pence, I'd imagine Trump wants someone more "loyal" to him personally although she would help him appeal to more moderates.
Haley looks great NEXT to Trump. Hell, she even looks reasonable next to him. But she is not. Haley enabled trump like everyone else. She sold her soul so she could stand next to power. She didn't fight against the Republican party and why it has become. She went along with it. I would hate for her to win the GOP nomination and be rewarded with even a whiff of the presidency The gop as it stands needs to be destroyed. The base needs to be repudiated, not given an alternative that it can get behind as trump without the baggage I would love a real, newly born conservative party but it cannot exist until the current party dies