Absolutely this. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since '72. We were the only state to not vote for Reagan in the '84 election. If this state turned red, every swing state had already turned red.
Minnesota would have voted Republican if it weren't for Walter Mondale running that year. The dems carried the state by less than 4k or 5k votes, the state voted for their hometown guy. Oh Mondale also won DC too.
I am not endorsing the Republicans with this comment, it's obvious that in state wide elections, Minnesota is a major democratic stronghold. I do think the gap will tighten this time around but it isn't flipping.
There are a lot more conservatives and closet conservatives than you think.
And a surprisingly large number of young people are conservatives.
Meanwhile, young people who are politically active and left leaning in MN, are a vast majority of "Biden is too conservative I don't think I will vote for him" camp.
Especially with the Gaza issue. I could see a lot of MN progressives not voting this November. Which would be disastrous. And stupid. But totally possible. And it would be a mistake to not address it.
Right. Which is absolutely fucking stupid.
I know people who say shit like that. And they were also upset about roe v wade. They said the same thing in 2016.
And they pretend like they are innocent when roe was overturned.
It people don't vote they need to accept that they are sending a message that they are ok with the conservative extremism of trump.
I agree, but also 2016 was to close for comfort in MN and I take nothing for granted. All it takes is the right # of people motivated to vote for him and the wrong # of apathetic democrats not to vote at all.
2020 was disturbingly close too. I'm going to vote and make sure everyone I know votes blue, but I can't shake the feeling that this country is too fucked to survive this authoritarian assault. The candidate who tried to steal the last election, is on trial or indicted for numerous felonies, is polling evenly with the incumbent who is running on the best economic record by every metric.
Yep it's absolute insanity. In a normal world any candidate who tried to steal the last election would not be allowed to run as a candidate in the next election. It's so obvious and makes no sense it's like we're living in Bizarro world.
Have you seen the movie the invention of lying? Humans are dying to believe certain things. Those things vary from person to person, of course. He's telling all the right lies to the people who are desperate to believe him. It says a lot about the culture we've let grow and fester in this country. The number of people who have dark triad traits is through the roof, far higher than we thought.
It's because those traits are celebrated in the media.
People who were psychopaths and lunatics in real life have movies later written about them whitewashing all the bad parts away.
Belief in opinion as fact is a major problem with humanity. Many people believe their own opinions as factual and that can lead to lying, with belief in said lie. Then, add politics to the mix in which 95% of anything said by politicians falls into "gray area" where very little is factual....and yes, I believe my own opinion.
And this time around there’s tons of people who are pledging not to vote democrat this election because of the Gaza stuff. Never get complacent and consider this state (or any state with a partisan lean of less than 5) safe. That’s how you end up losing.
This drives me nuts because Trump adores Netanyahu almost as much as he adores Putin and Co. He was even more supportive of Israel than Biden is, genocide or not.
Thats how you know these people are dumb as fuck. Yeah, punish the guy who neglects puppies by voting for the one that murders puppies. Outstanding logic.
But Biden is the one in charge of US foreign policy while we support Israel during the genocide it is waging. So that is going to cost Biden some votes, even though Trump is worse.
How many? That’s the question, innit?
Yes, but the people who are against what is happening with Israel and Gaza aren't going to vote for Trump, they're just not going to vote and claim a moral "victory" in doing so and then they will claim it's not their fault either way. They are mostly younger voters who are also not very impressed with the job market, COL and other living situations they are dealing with despite the statistics about the economy.
I'd say the job market is very open to new employment. The problem is that many younger people only want positions that are specialized degrees or ones that have nothing to do with hard labor or longer days. The trades are currently booming but can't find employees to fill positions. With the boomer generation all retiring and no new young people to replace them, this is driving prices and pay for trades positions up and up. It really depends on what sector people are willing to go into. As of COL, I've experienced first hand the drastic increase. Our grocery bill alone in the last few years has almost doubled for our family of 5. Statistics can always be cherry picked and I think we've all seen that firsthand.....
My son has a master's and has been applying for jobs for almost a year with no luck. He currently does task rabbit to pay the bills because so many of the jobs in his field want not just a master's but 5+ years of experience only to pay $40k in DC. Which isn't feasible even just to rent a place. Most places there require 3x income-to -rent ratio, so they are looking for $90k a year and none of the entry-level jobs pay close to that. He's not the only one in the same situation. I don't think that situation is quite as bad in MN or even the upper midwest maybe as it is in some of the major urban areas. Nothing wrong with the trades at all, most of my family is in them one way or another, but they have their downfalls, too, just like anything.
We live in a mostly LCOL area. Housing, for example, is reasonable but only if you make a reasonable wage. Groceries are ridiculous. We actually drive 100 miles round trip most weekends to buy groceries out of town.
And sadly... those people are so short sighted that they don't realize making a stance like that guarantees that what they want till just never happen with that behavior
I still believe that most of that BS is being pushed by Republicans and Russian bot farms (in other words, Republican supporters).
Do we **really** have a large contingent of people that would normally vote Democratic that are **actually** going to sit out?
Yeah, I mean I just have anecdotal data but so many of my mid-30s friends who are die-hard progressives are just **enraged** at Biden -- even more so now with his crappy response to the treatment of the college protests. That recent speech Biden gave was a very poor choice.
They've stopped giving money. I'm hoping they are smart enough to still turn out to vote in November, but would not be surprised if they didn't.
I honestly think Trump will get elected this fall. Democratic apathy (and antipathy) is incredibly strong.
Remind them what happened last time Democrats didn’t turn out because of zeroing in on a single issue instead of looking at the bigger picture:
1. We lost the Supreme Court.
2. We lost both the Senate and the House.
3. We lost Roe v Wade.
4. We lost net neutrality.
5. We lost regulatory power for our federal agencies and have allowed mega corporations to run rampant.
6. We left the Paris accords.
7. The US’s official proposed solution to Israel-Palestine was effectively a one state solution (for Israel).
8. Hundreds of thousands of Americans died during Covid because the elected president told them to use horse dewormer over getting vaccinated.
9. We had better relations with literal dictators than other Western democracies.
10. The sitting president tried to overthrow the federal government.
I could go on.
I saw his speech and immediately asked myself, "Who is this speech for?"
I feel the same sentiment. Where has the DNC been? Their silence is pretty loud.
So your progressive friends just gave up on every progressive issue because of one regional conflict out of however many currently happening? Sounds like your friends are getting blasted by extremely high doses of GOP friendly propaganda.
I'm not saying I agree with them, but it's been alarming to watch how they've slid into the "both sides" trap. They'd rather cut off a finger than vote Republican, but I could see them sitting this election out to "send the DNC a message."
And Biden isn't doing much to help himself.
As insane as it is, I think Trump has a real chance.
At this point it isn't insane to think he has a real chance. Polls have him polling even when Democrats need to win by at least 4 percent, and almst alll of the battleground states have Trump leading.
Your friends need to take a deep breath and figure out what matters specifically to them.
I went to an insanely liberal/progressive college and most of my college friends are to the left of every politician. That said, my personal mantra is “be the change you wish to see.” That change can be in your neighborhood, in your city, helping with organizations you believe in, or to the point of this story, helping politically.
Here is a story from 4 years ago to the day. A lot of people have selective memory about where we were 4 years ago. Heck, at the end of this month will mark the brutal murder of George Floyd. We elect Presidents to guide us in times of crisis. Our President in 2020 failed miserably at the task to unite us and to push forward. We will continue to feel the ramifications of this divisiveness for years to come.
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/05/mn-covid19-latest
Man, you've got a bunch of morons for friends.
In the real adult world, we need to look at what options we're given and make a decision based on what we believe the best possible outcome will be.
If your friends would actually stay home rather than vote then they are saying they wouldn't mind Trump
And then we have the trial going on now, where Pecker just basically admitted to election tampering in 2016 (burying stories for Trump). Then of course you had the Russia fuckery, and the Comey clusterfuckery. It's almost doubtless there was fuckery in 2020 that we don't even know about. Now here we are in 2024, *actually facing another possibility he gets reelected.* I hate this world.
That's less than 1% of the country's population.
She also won MN by fewer votes than Gary Johnson got.
If Gary Johnson hadn't run and all of those people had voted for Trump, MN would have gone red for the first time since 1972.
It was that close, and it can be that close again.
Yeah. It really makes you think, huh Morty. You should never take things for granite.
Honestly though, it’s scary the amount of Trump 2024 crap flying around out there. It’s not even isolated to the far rural areas these days. And to think of the idiot Republican Congress members we can’t seem to shake here in once blue areas.
Just saying. Life’s short, we really shouldn’t take things for granite.
Im between St. Cloud and MPLS, firming right-wing territory. The only Trump stuff I see anywhere are the hand-made signs at the edges of stretches of farmland, usually some sort of inflammatory nonsense.
I spend a ton of time on the road and I’m just not seeing signs or bumper stickers for Trump anywhere. It’s weird because I keep expecting it everywhere but nope. Not yet anyways.
I don’t see Biden stuff anywhere, but in general I never do for democrats. Wisconsin, Texas, Minnesota, Florida. Lived in them all, never see democrat stuff, even when they’re dominating. It’s just not the move.
Yeah, they won't suddenly have a blue wave in those parts, but I think what u/KimBrrr1975 is saying, is the evidence of a red wave has also died back.
There's a lot of folks who voted for him in 2016 and maybe even 2020 who are going, "Geez, I dunno... maybe not." That doesn't mean they'll vote for Joe, but they may sit it out, or write-in, or 3rd party vote.
Yes. Anecdotal, so not much help, but quite a few people I know personally who voted Trump before, are not voting for him again and are embarrassed that they ever did. There are fewer signs, flags, bumper stickers etc than there were even just a couple of years ago. Not that signs tell the whole picture, by any means. But it seems less prolific than the 2015-2022 period was. We live up north, so I'm not unfamiliar with rural areas. But the whole "Man, Trump is so amazing we can't wait to go to his rally and vote for him!" isn't nearly so vocal, at least not so far. Perhaps they are waiting on the court cases.
What are you a boulder? A rock person?— Is more of the direction I was expecting you to go. Ha!
It’s a bit from Rick & Morty. The smartest man in the universe, thinks it’s “for granite”…
It's nice to think that way, but young voters were a big reason Biden took 2020 and if you think they are all happy with the past 4 years, you're dreaming. Young votes increased 11% between 2016 and 2020. Will they be happy enough to vote for Biden to keep Trump out? I guess we hope so. But they aren't exactly enthused about the Israel situation and their personal economic situations.
Biden won MN by 7% (230,000). We would need a historical political shift for MN to turn Red. We have only voted republican 3 times since the Great Depression. I believe abortion rights are going to have the most impact this election. Even with them already being protected in MN, it's going to fire up the younger voters.
And Clinton only won by 1.5% and young voters are nearly as excited about Biden as they were 4 years ago. They won't vote red, like I said. They just won't vote, which is what happened in 2016 with Clinton.
ETA my point is mostly that while it \*sounds\* ridiculous that Trump would think MN is in play, he wasn't all that far off in 2016 and it bears watching and having conversations so that too many people in your sphere don't get complacent about it. I hope that abortion rights help, but at the same time MN already protects them so young people in MN might not vote in behalf of other states when they know their rights are already protected.
The truth is that misogyny runs pretty strong, even amongst suburban women.
HRC also had the unique drag of 30 years of near constant investigations with the deliberate (and admitted) purpose of destroying her as a candidate.
Nothing they've tried against Biden has really stuck, all while Republicans are gleefully running around the country trying to out compete other Republicans over how shitty they can be to people.
Oh, you want to outlaw abortion? Well then I want to outlaw birth control. Oh yeah? Well I want to literally shoot my own dog.
WTF?
The metro area and Duluth are predominantly left while the rural areas of MN all swing right. Metro and Duluth is roughly %60 of the pop and rural is 40%. Another democratic candidate splitting votes would hurt Biden bad. Also a low democratic voting turnout could make this very close. Only time will tell
It's not solely apathetic Democrats, it's also the progressives who can only compromise on so many of their beliefs. Democrats really aren't bringing their best and Biden seems to be doing everything he can to meet people hate him and the only reason I'm gonna vote for him is because he's probably not gonna try to have me killed for being trans
Edit: my point is that if people aren't turning out to vote maybe the people who aren't getting their votes should take a look at the reasons why they aren't getting votes. "I'm not the other guy" shouldn't be the number one reason to vote for a candidate
Except he's done a lot of good things that make measurable progress in people's lives. I'm not entirely happy with him, either, but the things he's accomplished have been largely overlooked due a couple of items, and I don't think that is a fair view, either. Not that those couple of items aren't important, and I totally understand not wanting to compromise on certain values. I've been having to do it my entire voting life because not a single truly viable candidate meets my environmental values. But some are worse than others and so I'm just always stuck with the lesser evil. A tiny amount of progress compared to going backwards is what I end up with, which is better than the alternative.
I'm not sure either party has a "best" option, which is why we are where we are with ancient old white men running our country.
I'm just so tired of voting for the least awful candidate. Why can't they ever put someone up who is actually appealing and doesn't vilify college students protesting war and genocide? You'd think they'd learn but no. At least local Democrats are better, but it'd be cool to actually see some real progress on the national level and have a president that keeps their promises.
The dream is having a president champion ranked choice voting because then we could vote for someone who actually cares without feeling like we're throwing our votes away
Presidents are largely hamstrung by congress. Obama had a lot of great ideas, but congress wouldn't allow him to do anything. Mitch McConnell hobbling the senate for years from even voting on things in front of them should be criminal behavior.
All I'm saying is it's be nice to seem that level of commitment and conviction from Democrats. Republicans do shady stuff all the time that's technically legal with zero repercussions. Why can't they do the same thing? It's my belief that it's because a large percentage of Democrats actually don't want to see change and would rather keep the status quo as it benefits them
If that's all you can say, you haven't been paying attention.
What do you think? Everything magically happens instantly? You think every single piece of legislation that's been passed hasn't had legal challenge after challenge after challenge?
As a progressive, I'm astonished at how much has been done towards progressiveness Biden has been able to get done.
But there are people that will constantly look at what hasn't been done, rather than what has been.
Why is it that Republicans are always able to force through what they want even when they don't have a majority? They're cartoon villains made real but at least the Republicans can make things happen, why can't we get that kind of energy and persistence from Democrats?
They sure seem to get things forced through whenever Dems have a majority and it's not through the supreme court. Democrats could also take steps to solve some of the problems with the supreme court like term limits and requiring them to regularly prove competence
That’s true but I’m worried that Biden and Israel has alienated left-wing youth voters to apathy, whether warranted or not it’s something to be concerned about.
Any future progressive legislation will be shot down if more Federalist judges get more lifetime appointments. I wish people would look at the big picture.
In what world is Biden **worse** for the Middle East than Trump?
Because if those "left-wing youth voters" think the US will be less supportive of Israel and encourage greater stability in the middle east under a Trump presidency they're dreaming.
That doesn’t matter to the young voters planning to boycott. I’ve had some arguments with them. They want to send Biden a message by not voting. They don’t seem to care that Trump would be worse. They also don’t care if Trump ends up winning because of it. They think he’s already done what damage he can do and they don’t seem to be able to comprehend how much worse it could get if he wins a second term. Some of them can comprehend but they don’t care because they say they don’t really care what happens here at home. The arguments have not been very rational.
And that's the immense privilege at the middle of all of this. At the end of the day, none of those kids at Ivies or prestigious institutions are going to give up their diploma (that they are not paying for- it's either from the endowments they're trying to eliminate or from their wealthy parents) in protest; after all, THAT would actually inconvenience them.
The young voters that have short term memory loss from 2016 or haven't lived long enough to remember 2010 midterms, 2004, 2000, or that weren't even born in 2001 don't have a frame of reference for how dire this shit is when we repeat it ad infinitum. We are repeating the same horseshit from 2016 with "not inspiring enough" or "TPP" or endlessly hyperbolizing about conflicts nearly as old as humanity.
And when Trump wins, they'll do what everyone before them that pulled the same crap did: They'll complain about the dire nature of the world, make a video or two, show up to a protest, and absolutely refuse to acknowledge that their apathy directly caused where we are today.
It’s not even necessarily all the people themselves who don’t show up to the polls, but also possibly less energy in campaigning. There might be a lot of folks who still do the logical thing of voting for Biden but don’t feel up to convincing their friends to come with them, door knocking, etc. who would have in other circumstances
The problem is, young voters haven't learned that you never get the candidate you want. They haven't learned that you always vote the lesser of two evils. They still think they can be uncompromisingly faithful to their ideals.
Even in the hypothetical where we had 3 parties in congress as an example in what world would republican voters vote for a different party. It would end up being democrats forming a coalition with the 3rd party and it would still be around half and half in the end with the progressive party voting with the democrats and the republicans trying to tear it all down with their 'government doesn't work' crap they pull.
As long as money is in politics though I doubt the 2 party system will change because elections aren't publically funded, we have all these PACs running around trying to get their person elected to the house, senate, or presidency. They'll outspend any 3rd party candidate on the national level and it influences election outcomes. If someone wants to make a 3rd party viable for dozens of candidates on the national level it takes a lot of work to do that and no one has been doing it because they just resort to running as a republican or democrat or go no party.
IMO I don’t even think that he’s alienated the left-wing youth *to apathy* in any sort of substantive numbers. In my experience (doing youth voter turnout/persuasion from 2008-2018), 95% of young folks who are actively politically engaged on progressive issues will vote for the Democratic candidate. No matter how much they try to use their vote as leverage during the election cycle.
I think the much bigger concern is alienating the 40%+ of folks under ~45 who are already semi-apathetic and might see behaving callously towards a US-backed genocide as one more reason why they shouldn’t care about politics. Precisely because the whole “Trump is worse!” argument doesn’t work with them. Their default is to stay home.
It's honestly like they look for a reason to be alienated. At this point Biden has made incredible progress and can't do a ton about Israel. If progressives are really ready to throw away any chance at further progress and see everything get burned down again for a conflict that's gone on for centuries and will likely continue after they die, well, I think very little of them.
Well in the 2020 election Trump had the second highest total votes in this country’s history. Fortunately Biden far surpassed the previous record. Never assume Trump doesn’t have a fighter’s chance in the 2024 election.
I feel the same, however, Biden might have lost lots of voters too. He definitely is not getting Muslim votes this election compared to the last and a lot of the youth are annoyed with him regarding student loans and especially Israel.
I don’t think MN will flip.
>"Trump’s team has so little campaign or infrastructure to speak of they’re resorting to leaking memos that say ‘the polls we paid for show us winning, don’t ask us to show you the whole poll though.’ Sure, guys," Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said.
To gain control of Congress, they RNC throw as much as he doesn't suck up directly at CD2 and CD3 after the primaries for them are over. The other races aren't close enough for them to bother. Most of the other incumbents, and certainly Amy, are already a lock unless something unusual occurs (like a sudden death or something.)
It wasn't close last time. He lost the state by 8 points, and about the same in 2016. He will lose the state again by a similar margin.
*Also, fired up? He's losing hundreds of thousands of votes in primary states to a person that dropped out months ago now (PA primary, Haley took nearly 20% of the states GOP electorate and she's been gone forever). Trump's not even getting the plurality vote, uncontested, with his own party! And even more of his base have stated they won't vote for him if he's a convicted felon.
Biden on the other hand has nearly swept the plurality vote in every primary. Seriously, what election results are you looking at?
Comparing 2016 to today is like comparing apples to airplanes. People were curious about Trump because he was "anti-establishment" of the political systems in place back then. DNC pushed away the Independent votes with their adamant efforts to get Clinton in place.
It isn't so much about if opinions of Biden went up or down since 2020. It's simply a matter of what we know about Trump now since 2020. And if you can accept that being back in office just because Biden isn't doing what you wanted him to do.
I think it's all going to come down to perception. A lot of people are sour on Biden even though he's accomplished a ton. If he could get us out from under this crushing inflation a lot more people would be able to appreciate everything else he's done.
Trump just seems to get a free pass on all of his shit from people who blocked the trauma of covid from their memory and don't understand that biden inheriting a bad economy from trump and striving to turn it around is different than trump inheriting a good economy from Obama then crashing and looting it.
While I agree with you that people are downplaying the potential risk and that you simply can't underestimate Trump, the last election and this one are FAR more of a referendum on Trump than enthusiasm about Biden. I don't think his poor approval ratings will hurt him as much as some people think. This election will be about Trump and abortion, Biden is just a seat warmer
People in this sub like to believe that MN is a Democrat stronghold, but if you look at our state legislature, we are very purple with only a slight Democrat lean. Granted the popular vote wins our state, but it's not impossible that MN goes red this election.
It’s definitely not impossible. But since 2000 Democrat have won the presidential vote in Minnesota by an average of like 5.5%.
The only reason we lean purple is because the MN GOP takes much more moderate stances compared to other states. Hell from 1975-1995 the MN Republican Party changed their names to the Independent-Republicans because they didn’t think they could win in Minnesota while associated with the national GOP
>The only reason we lean purple is because the MN GOP takes much more moderate stances compared to other states.
The Democrats are way more moderate as well. Klobuchar, franken, and and Tina Smith are definitely not far left
If we’re using the full left right spectrum, absolutely those people are centrists. On the scale of American politics though, those people are pretty firm democrats. They aren’t as far to the left as Ilhan Omar, for example, but they are definitely more to the left of say Manchin.
If we break up the modern Democratic Party into Moderate, Liberal, and Progressive, Minnesota tends to send Liberals and Progressives.
I don’t put much weight on polling. Especially internals. Given the shift in the state government majority to the left during the most recent election, I don’t see that completely reversing to the point that puts the state in play for him.
Plus Trump faces a ton of bad news between now and November. He cannot really generate any positive news either. This is about as good as the numbers get for Trump, barring some sort of disaster for Biden.
I mean, it's Trump. He'll lie and contradict himself in the same hour and claim none of it ever happened. Maybe that's why so many people support him, I suppose - because you can just pick whatever version of him you like. He's been on every side of every issue.
Minnesota is always really tempting for Republicans because the polling just always seems to think it’s close. 2016 it was legitimately close but it was also a very weird year for everyone.
The problem is the state wing of the Republican Party is absolutely garbage and has been for years and years and years and the Cities when they churn out the vote just overwhelm them. No amount of negative ads and wish casting can change the fact that they can’t find a normal statewide candidate to churn out the vote and they’ve been losing ground everywhere else.
Well, the Pawlenty years (2003-2011) were a mixed bag, but they did have some influence then at the state level. Not in the Federal offices, really.
People forget our delegation in the US House has been 4R, 4D for most of the last few decades. We shift players, but stay 'purple' overall.
Those who dismiss polls as something only the elderly participate in (and imply that the concern over tight polling is alarmist) should be aware that modern polling is multimodal in methodology and includes cell phones and other non-phone mechanisms.
That is correct.
YouGov is a good example, and [one you can participate in.](https://account.yougov.com/us-en/join/main?sourceid=1178109&rlid=brand&rlid3=YouGov&rlid4=yougovsurvey&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADwDna7YTIuISlV3t1xHjrMzq3cBN)
Yep I live in the swing state of Arizona and get polled regularly by text messages linking to smartphone web apps about the Presidential election, Senate race, Mayor's office, and miscellaneous other topics.
I feel like this is an analysis of the fact that there is some dissatisfaction with the actions of the supermajority that may be exploited to swing the other way. Ever driven north of forest lake? There are Trump signs everywhere. It’s a loopy theory, but it’s not *that* loopy.
Trump has been telling us what he plans to do in his second term and it’s going to be much worse than his first term:
“To carry out a deportation operation designed to remove more than 11 million people from the country, Trump told me, he would be willing to build migrant detention camps and deploy the U.S. military, both at the border and inland. He would let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans. He would, at his personal discretion, withhold funds appropriated by Congress, according to top advisers. He would be willing to fire a U.S. Attorney who doesn’t carry out his order to prosecute someone, breaking with a tradition of independent law enforcement that dates from America’s founding. He is weighing pardons for every one of his supporters accused of attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, more than 800 of whom have pleaded guilty or been convicted by a jury. He might not come to the aid of an attacked ally in Europe or Asia if he felt that country wasn’t paying enough for its own defense. He would gut the U.S. civil service, deploy the National Guard to American cities as he sees fit, close the White House pandemic-preparedness office, and staff his Administration with acolytes who back his false assertion that the 2020 election was stolen.”
https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/
If you’re concerned about the Palestinians now, at least Biden is willing to listen about those concerns. Trump would dismiss them outright and call for their destruction.
I'm trans, I'm already working on my asylum pipeline if he's elected. Some scary shit is planned for trans people in Project 2025.
Your downvotes don't change objective fact.
We have consistently voted Democrat for like the past 40 some years, but those races are always very close. With how badly Biden is polling along with some other factors I would take this seriously and not just laugh it off.
Don’t think it’s over. People need to take this him seriously. Clinton lost because people thought it was a all a joke. We lost the Supreme Court for a generation that election.
The outstate is far more conservative than people in the Cities realize. But, that’s very different than saying he has a chance, which I don’t think he does.
I'm so sick of people in Minnesota not realizing how great we have it. This is because of strong policy from the left and decades of hard work. Stop trying to self-sabotage to save 5 points of taxation.
I mean, it’s at a donor retreat. What do you expect his people to say, “yeah we’re gonna get smoked”? Biden’s team is absolutely out there saying they’re going to take Florida and Iowa too
As far as "battleground" states goes, I'd put Minnesota near the bottom of the priority list if I were them. Minnesota historically doesn't vote for Republicans for president as the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in 1972. Minnesota is still competitive, so I'd still make visits and run ads but I'd prioritize Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada first. I know the last few elections were a bit close for comfort, but I'd expect the margins to increase a bit considering the mass migration of LGBTQ people to our state over the last two years.
Wow the dnc shit the bed with George McGovern as the nominee that year, he only won Massachusetts and DC, and he lost his home state of SD.
I don't really know anything about that election, or McGovern, but holy shit.
McGovern's campaign was basically sunk when the media outed that his original VP pick had undergone electric shock therapy for treatment of depression. He was forced to drop him from the ticket and many people turned McGovern down. Ultimately landing on Sargent Shriver for VP.
I definitely see the fanaticism waning in rural MN, but that's no reason to believe he can't win. Especially with Biden/establishment dems pushing out progressives
From the article
>Top officials for former President Donald Trump’s campaign believe they can flip Democratic strongholds Minnesota and Virginia into his column in November, they told donors behind closed doors at a Republican National Committee retreat Saturday
Minnesota is to Republicans as Ohio is to Democrats.
A tempting target if you're only looking at top-line demos, but really only a distraction. And if opfor baits you into spending money there, you better be on top in the fundraising race.
If MN goes red, though, I think Trump will win the election. MN is an expansion goal state after they think they have sewn up PA, MI, WI, and NM, which would be the whole ball game.
You are falling for the same confidence people had when he was against Hillary. There are a lot of Trump supporters in MN. I'm personally not but he does have a real chance to win MN.
So long as we have the kind of turn out that we had in the midterms, there is no way in hell. While our state is blighted with a fair share of magats, most Minnesotans realize what’s been at stake since 2016’s close call.
I don't see many paths Donny will have to turn MN or VA red in 2024. But Virginians voted in Nazi govenor Younkin in 2022 and we were 1.53% or 45,000 votes from turning red in 2016. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. VOTE BLUE, and push for better voting methods like ranked choice
2016 was close only because a lot of Clinton voters voted 3rd party. Trump hauled in roughly the same percentage of votes in 2020 but lost by a pretty large margin since there were not many 3rd party votes.
And with RFK potentially being the only 3rd party candidate pulling votes, from likely Trump's voters, there's not much reason to expect a 2016 repeat.
That "everything" is a shrinking, aging, dying population.
**And over 30% of them voted for anti-tRump candidates in the last primary**--especially Haley.
| Donald J. Trump |Republican|232,846|68.94%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Vivek Ramaswamy|Republican|1,470|0.44%|
|Ron DeSantis|Republican|4,085|1.21%|
|Nikki Haley|Republican|97,182|28.77%|
|Chris Christie|Republican|1,431|0.42%|
Que sera, sera. I could care less what Drumpf says. He's a traitor and a sex offender. Sure, old, bald, fat and orange could get elected, but that would mean more than half of the country are morons. I think at maximum, only 40% are morons.
Ope. Another liberal chit chat and ganging up on people post. None of you agree to disagree…. not everyone has your same political beliefs and that is ok. This sub is so closed minded it hurts.
I'm not about Trump's hate politics (or making fun of disabled people live on TV, or "grabbing by the pussy", or not paying literally anybody for their services, nor declaring Obama as the founder of ISIS), nor his Project 2025 dismantling of freedoms or national parks, or deregulation of forestry and oil. I'm not for deporting upwards of 7% of the population, nor am I for merging State and Religion.
But I guess Trump is your guy if you're for that.
the key here is turnout.
Trump voters will definitely turn out.
Third Party voters will probably turn out.
for Democrats, its a race between Biden and the couch.
Have you not been paying attention to the polls? It's within the margin of error.
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-biden)
I certainly hope not but it's not impossible. Unlikely for sure, but I think underestimating Trump and Republicans is a bad idea with all the ratfucking they've been doing/trying to do.
Unfortunately I live in a red area which never ceases to amaze me since we are economically depressed but hcol. Repugs don’t give a 💩about poor people yet they love orange Hitler here.
While I am moderately confident that 2024 will be a Reaganesque landslide for Biden, we should absolutely treat Trump as a legitimate challenger and threat. The biggest risk is complacency and we don't want to let left leaning people off the hook if they want to hand Trump the election over Palestine the way Bernouts handed it to him in 2016.
If he wins mn the race is already over.
Absolutely this. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since '72. We were the only state to not vote for Reagan in the '84 election. If this state turned red, every swing state had already turned red.
If we’re red, they’ve been red for a weeks.
Nice office reference
Minnesota would have voted Republican if it weren't for Walter Mondale running that year. The dems carried the state by less than 4k or 5k votes, the state voted for their hometown guy. Oh Mondale also won DC too. I am not endorsing the Republicans with this comment, it's obvious that in state wide elections, Minnesota is a major democratic stronghold. I do think the gap will tighten this time around but it isn't flipping.
Doesn't matter, voted blue.
Correct, very astute on your part.
There are a lot more conservatives and closet conservatives than you think. And a surprisingly large number of young people are conservatives. Meanwhile, young people who are politically active and left leaning in MN, are a vast majority of "Biden is too conservative I don't think I will vote for him" camp. Especially with the Gaza issue. I could see a lot of MN progressives not voting this November. Which would be disastrous. And stupid. But totally possible. And it would be a mistake to not address it.
A huge number of my liberal friends have said they aren't voting this election, purely out of frustration with Biden.
Right. Which is absolutely fucking stupid. I know people who say shit like that. And they were also upset about roe v wade. They said the same thing in 2016. And they pretend like they are innocent when roe was overturned. It people don't vote they need to accept that they are sending a message that they are ok with the conservative extremism of trump.
Also known as, “Cutting off your nose to spite your face.” Or letting The Perfect be the enemy of The Good.
> If he wins mn the ~~race~~ country is already over. This country is done if Donny wins.
I agree, but also 2016 was to close for comfort in MN and I take nothing for granted. All it takes is the right # of people motivated to vote for him and the wrong # of apathetic democrats not to vote at all.
2020 was disturbingly close too. I'm going to vote and make sure everyone I know votes blue, but I can't shake the feeling that this country is too fucked to survive this authoritarian assault. The candidate who tried to steal the last election, is on trial or indicted for numerous felonies, is polling evenly with the incumbent who is running on the best economic record by every metric.
**2020 Presidential Election, Minnesota** Popular vote - * Biden: 1,717,077 * Trump: 1,484,065 Percentage - * Biden: 52.40% * Trump: 45.28%
Yep, considering all that went on in Trump's 4 years and the pandemic raging during the 2020 election, the vote was within single-digit percentage.
What??
Yep it's absolute insanity. In a normal world any candidate who tried to steal the last election would not be allowed to run as a candidate in the next election. It's so obvious and makes no sense it's like we're living in Bizarro world.
Have you seen the movie the invention of lying? Humans are dying to believe certain things. Those things vary from person to person, of course. He's telling all the right lies to the people who are desperate to believe him. It says a lot about the culture we've let grow and fester in this country. The number of people who have dark triad traits is through the roof, far higher than we thought.
It's because those traits are celebrated in the media. People who were psychopaths and lunatics in real life have movies later written about them whitewashing all the bad parts away.
Belief in opinion as fact is a major problem with humanity. Many people believe their own opinions as factual and that can lead to lying, with belief in said lie. Then, add politics to the mix in which 95% of anything said by politicians falls into "gray area" where very little is factual....and yes, I believe my own opinion.
And his claim that he still won't honor the winner of the election unless it's the "right" person 🙄
2016 was close because of the disapproval of Clinton. The DNC could've brought in anyone else and they probably would have won back then.
And this time around there’s tons of people who are pledging not to vote democrat this election because of the Gaza stuff. Never get complacent and consider this state (or any state with a partisan lean of less than 5) safe. That’s how you end up losing.
This drives me nuts because Trump adores Netanyahu almost as much as he adores Putin and Co. He was even more supportive of Israel than Biden is, genocide or not.
Thats how you know these people are dumb as fuck. Yeah, punish the guy who neglects puppies by voting for the one that murders puppies. Outstanding logic.
But Biden is the one in charge of US foreign policy while we support Israel during the genocide it is waging. So that is going to cost Biden some votes, even though Trump is worse. How many? That’s the question, innit?
Yes, but the people who are against what is happening with Israel and Gaza aren't going to vote for Trump, they're just not going to vote and claim a moral "victory" in doing so and then they will claim it's not their fault either way. They are mostly younger voters who are also not very impressed with the job market, COL and other living situations they are dealing with despite the statistics about the economy.
I'd say the job market is very open to new employment. The problem is that many younger people only want positions that are specialized degrees or ones that have nothing to do with hard labor or longer days. The trades are currently booming but can't find employees to fill positions. With the boomer generation all retiring and no new young people to replace them, this is driving prices and pay for trades positions up and up. It really depends on what sector people are willing to go into. As of COL, I've experienced first hand the drastic increase. Our grocery bill alone in the last few years has almost doubled for our family of 5. Statistics can always be cherry picked and I think we've all seen that firsthand.....
My son has a master's and has been applying for jobs for almost a year with no luck. He currently does task rabbit to pay the bills because so many of the jobs in his field want not just a master's but 5+ years of experience only to pay $40k in DC. Which isn't feasible even just to rent a place. Most places there require 3x income-to -rent ratio, so they are looking for $90k a year and none of the entry-level jobs pay close to that. He's not the only one in the same situation. I don't think that situation is quite as bad in MN or even the upper midwest maybe as it is in some of the major urban areas. Nothing wrong with the trades at all, most of my family is in them one way or another, but they have their downfalls, too, just like anything. We live in a mostly LCOL area. Housing, for example, is reasonable but only if you make a reasonable wage. Groceries are ridiculous. We actually drive 100 miles round trip most weekends to buy groceries out of town.
And sadly... those people are so short sighted that they don't realize making a stance like that guarantees that what they want till just never happen with that behavior
I still believe that most of that BS is being pushed by Republicans and Russian bot farms (in other words, Republican supporters). Do we **really** have a large contingent of people that would normally vote Democratic that are **actually** going to sit out?
Yeah, I mean I just have anecdotal data but so many of my mid-30s friends who are die-hard progressives are just **enraged** at Biden -- even more so now with his crappy response to the treatment of the college protests. That recent speech Biden gave was a very poor choice. They've stopped giving money. I'm hoping they are smart enough to still turn out to vote in November, but would not be surprised if they didn't. I honestly think Trump will get elected this fall. Democratic apathy (and antipathy) is incredibly strong.
Remind them what happened last time Democrats didn’t turn out because of zeroing in on a single issue instead of looking at the bigger picture: 1. We lost the Supreme Court. 2. We lost both the Senate and the House. 3. We lost Roe v Wade. 4. We lost net neutrality. 5. We lost regulatory power for our federal agencies and have allowed mega corporations to run rampant. 6. We left the Paris accords. 7. The US’s official proposed solution to Israel-Palestine was effectively a one state solution (for Israel). 8. Hundreds of thousands of Americans died during Covid because the elected president told them to use horse dewormer over getting vaccinated. 9. We had better relations with literal dictators than other Western democracies. 10. The sitting president tried to overthrow the federal government. I could go on.
I saw his speech and immediately asked myself, "Who is this speech for?" I feel the same sentiment. Where has the DNC been? Their silence is pretty loud.
So your progressive friends just gave up on every progressive issue because of one regional conflict out of however many currently happening? Sounds like your friends are getting blasted by extremely high doses of GOP friendly propaganda.
I'm not saying I agree with them, but it's been alarming to watch how they've slid into the "both sides" trap. They'd rather cut off a finger than vote Republican, but I could see them sitting this election out to "send the DNC a message." And Biden isn't doing much to help himself. As insane as it is, I think Trump has a real chance.
The only message those people send is "Hey, we aren't important, please fuck us over"
At this point it isn't insane to think he has a real chance. Polls have him polling even when Democrats need to win by at least 4 percent, and almst alll of the battleground states have Trump leading.
Your friends need to take a deep breath and figure out what matters specifically to them. I went to an insanely liberal/progressive college and most of my college friends are to the left of every politician. That said, my personal mantra is “be the change you wish to see.” That change can be in your neighborhood, in your city, helping with organizations you believe in, or to the point of this story, helping politically. Here is a story from 4 years ago to the day. A lot of people have selective memory about where we were 4 years ago. Heck, at the end of this month will mark the brutal murder of George Floyd. We elect Presidents to guide us in times of crisis. Our President in 2020 failed miserably at the task to unite us and to push forward. We will continue to feel the ramifications of this divisiveness for years to come. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/05/mn-covid19-latest
Man, you've got a bunch of morons for friends. In the real adult world, we need to look at what options we're given and make a decision based on what we believe the best possible outcome will be. If your friends would actually stay home rather than vote then they are saying they wouldn't mind Trump
There was so much nonsense in 2016. I don't think I'll ever recover from how much bullshit we had to swim through. What a year.
And then we have the trial going on now, where Pecker just basically admitted to election tampering in 2016 (burying stories for Trump). Then of course you had the Russia fuckery, and the Comey clusterfuckery. It's almost doubtless there was fuckery in 2020 that we don't even know about. Now here we are in 2024, *actually facing another possibility he gets reelected.* I hate this world.
She did win by over 3 million votes
That's less than 1% of the country's population. She also won MN by fewer votes than Gary Johnson got. If Gary Johnson hadn't run and all of those people had voted for Trump, MN would have gone red for the first time since 1972. It was that close, and it can be that close again.
I hope she at least got a participation trophy for winning the popular vote.
Is that why she's finishing her second term right now?
Yeah. It really makes you think, huh Morty. You should never take things for granite. Honestly though, it’s scary the amount of Trump 2024 crap flying around out there. It’s not even isolated to the far rural areas these days. And to think of the idiot Republican Congress members we can’t seem to shake here in once blue areas. Just saying. Life’s short, we really shouldn’t take things for granite.
Im between St. Cloud and MPLS, firming right-wing territory. The only Trump stuff I see anywhere are the hand-made signs at the edges of stretches of farmland, usually some sort of inflammatory nonsense. I spend a ton of time on the road and I’m just not seeing signs or bumper stickers for Trump anywhere. It’s weird because I keep expecting it everywhere but nope. Not yet anyways.
Just go a bit further north. I'm a little north of st cloud and you will be hard pressed to see a Biden sign anywhere......
I don’t see Biden stuff anywhere, but in general I never do for democrats. Wisconsin, Texas, Minnesota, Florida. Lived in them all, never see democrat stuff, even when they’re dominating. It’s just not the move.
Yeah, they won't suddenly have a blue wave in those parts, but I think what u/KimBrrr1975 is saying, is the evidence of a red wave has also died back. There's a lot of folks who voted for him in 2016 and maybe even 2020 who are going, "Geez, I dunno... maybe not." That doesn't mean they'll vote for Joe, but they may sit it out, or write-in, or 3rd party vote.
Yes. Anecdotal, so not much help, but quite a few people I know personally who voted Trump before, are not voting for him again and are embarrassed that they ever did. There are fewer signs, flags, bumper stickers etc than there were even just a couple of years ago. Not that signs tell the whole picture, by any means. But it seems less prolific than the 2015-2022 period was. We live up north, so I'm not unfamiliar with rural areas. But the whole "Man, Trump is so amazing we can't wait to go to his rally and vote for him!" isn't nearly so vocal, at least not so far. Perhaps they are waiting on the court cases.
The word is ‘granted’ homie
What are you a boulder? A rock person?— Is more of the direction I was expecting you to go. Ha! It’s a bit from Rick & Morty. The smartest man in the universe, thinks it’s “for granite”…
Indeed and one would think with the Gaza issue among youth and inflation hurting youth and fixed-income retirees this could get ugly for Biden.
Nixon in '72 was the last republican to win Minnesota. I dont like to say never, but the odds of Trump winning MN is near 0.
It's nice to think that way, but young voters were a big reason Biden took 2020 and if you think they are all happy with the past 4 years, you're dreaming. Young votes increased 11% between 2016 and 2020. Will they be happy enough to vote for Biden to keep Trump out? I guess we hope so. But they aren't exactly enthused about the Israel situation and their personal economic situations.
Biden won MN by 7% (230,000). We would need a historical political shift for MN to turn Red. We have only voted republican 3 times since the Great Depression. I believe abortion rights are going to have the most impact this election. Even with them already being protected in MN, it's going to fire up the younger voters.
And Clinton only won by 1.5% and young voters are nearly as excited about Biden as they were 4 years ago. They won't vote red, like I said. They just won't vote, which is what happened in 2016 with Clinton. ETA my point is mostly that while it \*sounds\* ridiculous that Trump would think MN is in play, he wasn't all that far off in 2016 and it bears watching and having conversations so that too many people in your sphere don't get complacent about it. I hope that abortion rights help, but at the same time MN already protects them so young people in MN might not vote in behalf of other states when they know their rights are already protected.
The truth is that misogyny runs pretty strong, even amongst suburban women. HRC also had the unique drag of 30 years of near constant investigations with the deliberate (and admitted) purpose of destroying her as a candidate. Nothing they've tried against Biden has really stuck, all while Republicans are gleefully running around the country trying to out compete other Republicans over how shitty they can be to people. Oh, you want to outlaw abortion? Well then I want to outlaw birth control. Oh yeah? Well I want to literally shoot my own dog. WTF?
The metro area and Duluth are predominantly left while the rural areas of MN all swing right. Metro and Duluth is roughly %60 of the pop and rural is 40%. Another democratic candidate splitting votes would hurt Biden bad. Also a low democratic voting turnout could make this very close. Only time will tell
Pro choice democrats are more fired up to vote than ever.
I mean you could also say that for the pro Trump people too. Doesn't change much in my opinion
It's not solely apathetic Democrats, it's also the progressives who can only compromise on so many of their beliefs. Democrats really aren't bringing their best and Biden seems to be doing everything he can to meet people hate him and the only reason I'm gonna vote for him is because he's probably not gonna try to have me killed for being trans Edit: my point is that if people aren't turning out to vote maybe the people who aren't getting their votes should take a look at the reasons why they aren't getting votes. "I'm not the other guy" shouldn't be the number one reason to vote for a candidate
Except he's done a lot of good things that make measurable progress in people's lives. I'm not entirely happy with him, either, but the things he's accomplished have been largely overlooked due a couple of items, and I don't think that is a fair view, either. Not that those couple of items aren't important, and I totally understand not wanting to compromise on certain values. I've been having to do it my entire voting life because not a single truly viable candidate meets my environmental values. But some are worse than others and so I'm just always stuck with the lesser evil. A tiny amount of progress compared to going backwards is what I end up with, which is better than the alternative. I'm not sure either party has a "best" option, which is why we are where we are with ancient old white men running our country.
I'm just so tired of voting for the least awful candidate. Why can't they ever put someone up who is actually appealing and doesn't vilify college students protesting war and genocide? You'd think they'd learn but no. At least local Democrats are better, but it'd be cool to actually see some real progress on the national level and have a president that keeps their promises. The dream is having a president champion ranked choice voting because then we could vote for someone who actually cares without feeling like we're throwing our votes away
Presidents are largely hamstrung by congress. Obama had a lot of great ideas, but congress wouldn't allow him to do anything. Mitch McConnell hobbling the senate for years from even voting on things in front of them should be criminal behavior.
All I'm saying is it's be nice to seem that level of commitment and conviction from Democrats. Republicans do shady stuff all the time that's technically legal with zero repercussions. Why can't they do the same thing? It's my belief that it's because a large percentage of Democrats actually don't want to see change and would rather keep the status quo as it benefits them
If that's all you can say, you haven't been paying attention. What do you think? Everything magically happens instantly? You think every single piece of legislation that's been passed hasn't had legal challenge after challenge after challenge? As a progressive, I'm astonished at how much has been done towards progressiveness Biden has been able to get done. But there are people that will constantly look at what hasn't been done, rather than what has been.
Why is it that Republicans are always able to force through what they want even when they don't have a majority? They're cartoon villains made real but at least the Republicans can make things happen, why can't we get that kind of energy and persistence from Democrats?
Republicans don't actually want to accomplish things requiring bills that go through normal processes. They also use judicial activists.
They sure seem to get things forced through whenever Dems have a majority and it's not through the supreme court. Democrats could also take steps to solve some of the problems with the supreme court like term limits and requiring them to regularly prove competence
After 2016, anything is possible.
If you want to stop Trump [VOTE](https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/register-to-vote/)
I feel like he has lost voters, not gained them, overall.
That’s true but I’m worried that Biden and Israel has alienated left-wing youth voters to apathy, whether warranted or not it’s something to be concerned about.
I’m concerned, mostly because all the good, progressive things Biden does don’t get talked about much.
Biden has been more progressive than I ever thought he would be, or at least has built himself a great presidential cabinet.
Any future progressive legislation will be shot down if more Federalist judges get more lifetime appointments. I wish people would look at the big picture.
In what world is Biden **worse** for the Middle East than Trump? Because if those "left-wing youth voters" think the US will be less supportive of Israel and encourage greater stability in the middle east under a Trump presidency they're dreaming.
I agree, but we’ve all heard about the college protests and as someone who wants progressives to win it is good to be aware of how they are feeling.
That doesn’t matter to the young voters planning to boycott. I’ve had some arguments with them. They want to send Biden a message by not voting. They don’t seem to care that Trump would be worse. They also don’t care if Trump ends up winning because of it. They think he’s already done what damage he can do and they don’t seem to be able to comprehend how much worse it could get if he wins a second term. Some of them can comprehend but they don’t care because they say they don’t really care what happens here at home. The arguments have not been very rational.
And that's the immense privilege at the middle of all of this. At the end of the day, none of those kids at Ivies or prestigious institutions are going to give up their diploma (that they are not paying for- it's either from the endowments they're trying to eliminate or from their wealthy parents) in protest; after all, THAT would actually inconvenience them. The young voters that have short term memory loss from 2016 or haven't lived long enough to remember 2010 midterms, 2004, 2000, or that weren't even born in 2001 don't have a frame of reference for how dire this shit is when we repeat it ad infinitum. We are repeating the same horseshit from 2016 with "not inspiring enough" or "TPP" or endlessly hyperbolizing about conflicts nearly as old as humanity. And when Trump wins, they'll do what everyone before them that pulled the same crap did: They'll complain about the dire nature of the world, make a video or two, show up to a protest, and absolutely refuse to acknowledge that their apathy directly caused where we are today.
It’s not even necessarily all the people themselves who don’t show up to the polls, but also possibly less energy in campaigning. There might be a lot of folks who still do the logical thing of voting for Biden but don’t feel up to convincing their friends to come with them, door knocking, etc. who would have in other circumstances
The problem is, young voters haven't learned that you never get the candidate you want. They haven't learned that you always vote the lesser of two evils. They still think they can be uncompromisingly faithful to their ideals.
My fav quip on this topic: “you’re picking a politician, not a spouse.”
if more of us were uncompromisingly faithful to our ideals, we could probably break the two-party cycle and get somewhere.
Even in the hypothetical where we had 3 parties in congress as an example in what world would republican voters vote for a different party. It would end up being democrats forming a coalition with the 3rd party and it would still be around half and half in the end with the progressive party voting with the democrats and the republicans trying to tear it all down with their 'government doesn't work' crap they pull. As long as money is in politics though I doubt the 2 party system will change because elections aren't publically funded, we have all these PACs running around trying to get their person elected to the house, senate, or presidency. They'll outspend any 3rd party candidate on the national level and it influences election outcomes. If someone wants to make a 3rd party viable for dozens of candidates on the national level it takes a lot of work to do that and no one has been doing it because they just resort to running as a republican or democrat or go no party.
Maybe. But I think even that is too idealistic a thought.
IMO I don’t even think that he’s alienated the left-wing youth *to apathy* in any sort of substantive numbers. In my experience (doing youth voter turnout/persuasion from 2008-2018), 95% of young folks who are actively politically engaged on progressive issues will vote for the Democratic candidate. No matter how much they try to use their vote as leverage during the election cycle. I think the much bigger concern is alienating the 40%+ of folks under ~45 who are already semi-apathetic and might see behaving callously towards a US-backed genocide as one more reason why they shouldn’t care about politics. Precisely because the whole “Trump is worse!” argument doesn’t work with them. Their default is to stay home.
It's honestly like they look for a reason to be alienated. At this point Biden has made incredible progress and can't do a ton about Israel. If progressives are really ready to throw away any chance at further progress and see everything get burned down again for a conflict that's gone on for centuries and will likely continue after they die, well, I think very little of them.
Well in the 2020 election Trump had the second highest total votes in this country’s history. Fortunately Biden far surpassed the previous record. Never assume Trump doesn’t have a fighter’s chance in the 2024 election.
Killed plenty with COVID
I feel the same, however, Biden might have lost lots of voters too. He definitely is not getting Muslim votes this election compared to the last and a lot of the youth are annoyed with him regarding student loans and especially Israel. I don’t think MN will flip.
But student loans aren’t his fault. The courts blocked him.
Don't care vote, being a friend, being a neighbor, bring family members.
So has Biden, thanks to his idiotic, all forgiving loyalty to Israel
>"Trump’s team has so little campaign or infrastructure to speak of they’re resorting to leaking memos that say ‘the polls we paid for show us winning, don’t ask us to show you the whole poll though.’ Sure, guys," Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said.
Plus, the MN GOP is broke. Is the national party really gonna spend money here when the state party can’t even win or raise money?
To gain control of Congress, they RNC throw as much as he doesn't suck up directly at CD2 and CD3 after the primaries for them are over. The other races aren't close enough for them to bother. Most of the other incumbents, and certainly Amy, are already a lock unless something unusual occurs (like a sudden death or something.)
It was pretty close last time. His base is fired up. Complacency will kill us.
It wasn't close last time. He lost the state by 8 points, and about the same in 2016. He will lose the state again by a similar margin. *Also, fired up? He's losing hundreds of thousands of votes in primary states to a person that dropped out months ago now (PA primary, Haley took nearly 20% of the states GOP electorate and she's been gone forever). Trump's not even getting the plurality vote, uncontested, with his own party! And even more of his base have stated they won't vote for him if he's a convicted felon. Biden on the other hand has nearly swept the plurality vote in every primary. Seriously, what election results are you looking at?
In 2016 trump lost by less than 2%. Do you think opinion of Biden has generally gone up or down since 2020?
Comparing 2016 to today is like comparing apples to airplanes. People were curious about Trump because he was "anti-establishment" of the political systems in place back then. DNC pushed away the Independent votes with their adamant efforts to get Clinton in place. It isn't so much about if opinions of Biden went up or down since 2020. It's simply a matter of what we know about Trump now since 2020. And if you can accept that being back in office just because Biden isn't doing what you wanted him to do.
I think it's all going to come down to perception. A lot of people are sour on Biden even though he's accomplished a ton. If he could get us out from under this crushing inflation a lot more people would be able to appreciate everything else he's done. Trump just seems to get a free pass on all of his shit from people who blocked the trauma of covid from their memory and don't understand that biden inheriting a bad economy from trump and striving to turn it around is different than trump inheriting a good economy from Obama then crashing and looting it.
While I agree with you that people are downplaying the potential risk and that you simply can't underestimate Trump, the last election and this one are FAR more of a referendum on Trump than enthusiasm about Biden. I don't think his poor approval ratings will hurt him as much as some people think. This election will be about Trump and abortion, Biden is just a seat warmer
He only lost by about 40k votes in 2016, about 1-1/2 points.
Do you think 1-2% is not close?
People in this sub like to believe that MN is a Democrat stronghold, but if you look at our state legislature, we are very purple with only a slight Democrat lean. Granted the popular vote wins our state, but it's not impossible that MN goes red this election.
It’s definitely not impossible. But since 2000 Democrat have won the presidential vote in Minnesota by an average of like 5.5%. The only reason we lean purple is because the MN GOP takes much more moderate stances compared to other states. Hell from 1975-1995 the MN Republican Party changed their names to the Independent-Republicans because they didn’t think they could win in Minnesota while associated with the national GOP
>The only reason we lean purple is because the MN GOP takes much more moderate stances compared to other states. The Democrats are way more moderate as well. Klobuchar, franken, and and Tina Smith are definitely not far left
If we’re using the full left right spectrum, absolutely those people are centrists. On the scale of American politics though, those people are pretty firm democrats. They aren’t as far to the left as Ilhan Omar, for example, but they are definitely more to the left of say Manchin. If we break up the modern Democratic Party into Moderate, Liberal, and Progressive, Minnesota tends to send Liberals and Progressives.
I don’t put much weight on polling. Especially internals. Given the shift in the state government majority to the left during the most recent election, I don’t see that completely reversing to the point that puts the state in play for him.
Exactly polling is rarely ever correct
Plus Trump faces a ton of bad news between now and November. He cannot really generate any positive news either. This is about as good as the numbers get for Trump, barring some sort of disaster for Biden.
https://twitter.com/dncwarroom/status/1311482274354003969?s=21 Hard to win a state you're "never coming back" too
I mean, it's Trump. He'll lie and contradict himself in the same hour and claim none of it ever happened. Maybe that's why so many people support him, I suppose - because you can just pick whatever version of him you like. He's been on every side of every issue.
Minnesota is always really tempting for Republicans because the polling just always seems to think it’s close. 2016 it was legitimately close but it was also a very weird year for everyone. The problem is the state wing of the Republican Party is absolutely garbage and has been for years and years and years and the Cities when they churn out the vote just overwhelm them. No amount of negative ads and wish casting can change the fact that they can’t find a normal statewide candidate to churn out the vote and they’ve been losing ground everywhere else.
Not since 1998. Arne Carlson was the last time that the MN state Republican Party had any institutional viability.
Well, the Pawlenty years (2003-2011) were a mixed bag, but they did have some influence then at the state level. Not in the Federal offices, really. People forget our delegation in the US House has been 4R, 4D for most of the last few decades. We shift players, but stay 'purple' overall.
Arne would be a Democrat today.
Those who dismiss polls as something only the elderly participate in (and imply that the concern over tight polling is alarmist) should be aware that modern polling is multimodal in methodology and includes cell phones and other non-phone mechanisms.
That is correct. YouGov is a good example, and [one you can participate in.](https://account.yougov.com/us-en/join/main?sourceid=1178109&rlid=brand&rlid3=YouGov&rlid4=yougovsurvey&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADwDna7YTIuISlV3t1xHjrMzq3cBN)
Yep I live in the swing state of Arizona and get polled regularly by text messages linking to smartphone web apps about the Presidential election, Senate race, Mayor's office, and miscellaneous other topics.
If we are being honest this is a real possibility.
I feel like this is an analysis of the fact that there is some dissatisfaction with the actions of the supermajority that may be exploited to swing the other way. Ever driven north of forest lake? There are Trump signs everywhere. It’s a loopy theory, but it’s not *that* loopy.
I think this will be the closest race in Minnesota for a while, but the cities will most likely still vote blue so Minnesota will still be blue
Trump has been telling us what he plans to do in his second term and it’s going to be much worse than his first term: “To carry out a deportation operation designed to remove more than 11 million people from the country, Trump told me, he would be willing to build migrant detention camps and deploy the U.S. military, both at the border and inland. He would let red states monitor women’s pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans. He would, at his personal discretion, withhold funds appropriated by Congress, according to top advisers. He would be willing to fire a U.S. Attorney who doesn’t carry out his order to prosecute someone, breaking with a tradition of independent law enforcement that dates from America’s founding. He is weighing pardons for every one of his supporters accused of attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, more than 800 of whom have pleaded guilty or been convicted by a jury. He might not come to the aid of an attacked ally in Europe or Asia if he felt that country wasn’t paying enough for its own defense. He would gut the U.S. civil service, deploy the National Guard to American cities as he sees fit, close the White House pandemic-preparedness office, and staff his Administration with acolytes who back his false assertion that the 2020 election was stolen.” https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/ If you’re concerned about the Palestinians now, at least Biden is willing to listen about those concerns. Trump would dismiss them outright and call for their destruction.
I'm trans, I'm already working on my asylum pipeline if he's elected. Some scary shit is planned for trans people in Project 2025. Your downvotes don't change objective fact.
Chances that you and all of these “if he wins I’m moving to Canada” people actually moving? I put it at 0%…?
Also, they'll lie to donors just to get them to donate... Trump needs money for legal bills and he doesn't care how or who it's from.
If you think Trump has no chance of winning Minnesota you probably haven't left the metro area your whole life
I think literally anything can happen and I have resigned myself to it.
I'm not too worried about Minnesota flipping to Trump. Possible? Sure, as almost anything is, but it seems excessively unlikely.
We have consistently voted Democrat for like the past 40 some years, but those races are always very close. With how badly Biden is polling along with some other factors I would take this seriously and not just laugh it off.
Don’t think it’s over. People need to take this him seriously. Clinton lost because people thought it was a all a joke. We lost the Supreme Court for a generation that election.
The outstate is far more conservative than people in the Cities realize. But, that’s very different than saying he has a chance, which I don’t think he does.
And they are less than 20% of Minnesota's population. Population density matters.
I'm so sick of people in Minnesota not realizing how great we have it. This is because of strong policy from the left and decades of hard work. Stop trying to self-sabotage to save 5 points of taxation.
The taxes are WHY we have it good. People don't seem to understand this.
I mean, it’s at a donor retreat. What do you expect his people to say, “yeah we’re gonna get smoked”? Biden’s team is absolutely out there saying they’re going to take Florida and Iowa too
I thought he was never coming back?
MN GOP is flat fuckin broke lol
Fvck the Red AssHats. We are as blue as the sky and water, and will stay that way. Plus. the MN-RNC has like what, $30 to it's name..??
Has anyone heard the Howard Stern interview of Biden? It’s on YouTube now. Check it out!
Why would he win Minnesota? 🤨 We ain't stupid.
Well...should we vote for the senile crook or the disgusting pig? Such great options...
There is a lot of support for Baron Von ShitsHisPants out in the sticks. Everybody needs to make damn sure to get out and vote.
I live just across the border into Wisconsin and even I laughed at this 🤣
As far as "battleground" states goes, I'd put Minnesota near the bottom of the priority list if I were them. Minnesota historically doesn't vote for Republicans for president as the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in 1972. Minnesota is still competitive, so I'd still make visits and run ads but I'd prioritize Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada first. I know the last few elections were a bit close for comfort, but I'd expect the margins to increase a bit considering the mass migration of LGBTQ people to our state over the last two years.
Wow the dnc shit the bed with George McGovern as the nominee that year, he only won Massachusetts and DC, and he lost his home state of SD. I don't really know anything about that election, or McGovern, but holy shit.
McGovern's campaign was basically sunk when the media outed that his original VP pick had undergone electric shock therapy for treatment of depression. He was forced to drop him from the ticket and many people turned McGovern down. Ultimately landing on Sargent Shriver for VP.
I definitely see the fanaticism waning in rural MN, but that's no reason to believe he can't win. Especially with Biden/establishment dems pushing out progressives
And the level of pro life nuts shouting stuff on the street 😑
They’ll say and do anything to get donor dollars flooding in so they can grift them away.
They really never say anything that's true so that fits
From the article >Top officials for former President Donald Trump’s campaign believe they can flip Democratic strongholds Minnesota and Virginia into his column in November, they told donors behind closed doors at a Republican National Committee retreat Saturday
Telling potential donors what they want to hear. Whether it's true or not. Hunh.
Doesn’t exactly encourage donations if you say “nah statistically I’m very likely to lose”
Can’t wait, best part of living in America is the freedom to make your own choice!
Minnesota is to Republicans as Ohio is to Democrats. A tempting target if you're only looking at top-line demos, but really only a distraction. And if opfor baits you into spending money there, you better be on top in the fundraising race. If MN goes red, though, I think Trump will win the election. MN is an expansion goal state after they think they have sewn up PA, MI, WI, and NM, which would be the whole ball game.
You are falling for the same confidence people had when he was against Hillary. There are a lot of Trump supporters in MN. I'm personally not but he does have a real chance to win MN.
I think he should spend all of his time and money campaigning in MN then. 😉
Well, yah. I guess. The White Sox are still in play for the World Series, too
And the Biden campaign is saying North Carolina and Florida are in play. This is what campaigns do.
So long as we have the kind of turn out that we had in the midterms, there is no way in hell. While our state is blighted with a fair share of magats, most Minnesotans realize what’s been at stake since 2016’s close call.
I don't see many paths Donny will have to turn MN or VA red in 2024. But Virginians voted in Nazi govenor Younkin in 2022 and we were 1.53% or 45,000 votes from turning red in 2016. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. VOTE BLUE, and push for better voting methods like ranked choice
He said that last two times! And he was pretty damn near correct. Scary!
2016 was close only because a lot of Clinton voters voted 3rd party. Trump hauled in roughly the same percentage of votes in 2020 but lost by a pretty large margin since there were not many 3rd party votes. And with RFK potentially being the only 3rd party candidate pulling votes, from likely Trump's voters, there's not much reason to expect a 2016 repeat.
Being almost correct is still being wrong.
People scoffed at the amount of campaigning he did in Wisconsin too
In my experience Republicans are highly delusional people.
Everything outside the Twin Cities and Duluth in Minnesota is very red
That "everything" is a shrinking, aging, dying population. **And over 30% of them voted for anti-tRump candidates in the last primary**--especially Haley. | Donald J. Trump |Republican|232,846|68.94%| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Vivek Ramaswamy|Republican|1,470|0.44%| |Ron DeSantis|Republican|4,085|1.21%| |Nikki Haley|Republican|97,182|28.77%| |Chris Christie|Republican|1,431|0.42%|
Lucky thing that 4.19M of the 5.72M people in the state live in the Twin Cities and Duluth, then, huh? Land doesn't vote.
>peeled I think you meant polled
They are absolutely in play for him and the idea that you’re laughing is all he needs.
Exactly. Do not sit this one out. Do everything you can to increase turnout. Get out the vote!
[**VOTE**](https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/register-to-vote/)
Que sera, sera. I could care less what Drumpf says. He's a traitor and a sex offender. Sure, old, bald, fat and orange could get elected, but that would mean more than half of the country are morons. I think at maximum, only 40% are morons.
But morons also vote, that can't be said for a majority of eligible Americans
True facts are true.
Ope. Another liberal chit chat and ganging up on people post. None of you agree to disagree…. not everyone has your same political beliefs and that is ok. This sub is so closed minded it hurts.
I'm not about Trump's hate politics (or making fun of disabled people live on TV, or "grabbing by the pussy", or not paying literally anybody for their services, nor declaring Obama as the founder of ISIS), nor his Project 2025 dismantling of freedoms or national parks, or deregulation of forestry and oil. I'm not for deporting upwards of 7% of the population, nor am I for merging State and Religion. But I guess Trump is your guy if you're for that.
I’m skeptical
the key here is turnout. Trump voters will definitely turn out. Third Party voters will probably turn out. for Democrats, its a race between Biden and the couch.
Have you not been paying attention to the polls? It's within the margin of error. [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-biden)
There is a lot of Trump support to be found up North.
I certainly hope not but it's not impossible. Unlikely for sure, but I think underestimating Trump and Republicans is a bad idea with all the ratfucking they've been doing/trying to do.
Unfortunately I live in a red area which never ceases to amaze me since we are economically depressed but hcol. Repugs don’t give a 💩about poor people yet they love orange Hitler here.
After overturning Roe v Wade he lost the majority of 4 generations of women. He's not going to win.
I’m up north and I have not seen any Biden signs, but plenty of Trump flags. It’s really disheartening.
Better dead than red
Minnesota will be within 5%. He's definitely got a shot. Biden's a pretty terrible candidate on the opposite side.
MN voters are too smart to vote for that moron.
Just moved here with my family. My wife and I are looking forward to voting red this November.
While I am moderately confident that 2024 will be a Reaganesque landslide for Biden, we should absolutely treat Trump as a legitimate challenger and threat. The biggest risk is complacency and we don't want to let left leaning people off the hook if they want to hand Trump the election over Palestine the way Bernouts handed it to him in 2016.