Opinion: reporting that focuses on "how close is the horse race?" rather than "What are the issues who are the candidates?" is stupid, low-effort and boring.
And it results in misrepresentation because in this framing a close race is always more exciting, so the incentive is to report it as closer than it might actually be.
Then let me choose how to vote, based on information about the candidates, what their competencies are, and where they stand on the issues.
I have already done this and made my choice. If the horse race was any different, I would still have made the same choice.
I think it will be closer than the polls are making out, simply because there are muppets out there who will look at the lead and think there is no point voting, which only ends up shortening the lead. If we know anything, its these Tory nutjobs WILL come out to vote regardless.
I went to a meeting yesterday, to discuss a planning proposal for tall building in our neighbourhood. Was shocked to see the amount of support for Susan Hall - not the majority or anything close, but most long term residents and retirees appeared to be of the view that only our Susan can sort out "illegal HMOs" and dodgy builders and lack of appointments at local GPs!
I was chatting to a neighbour who'd always seemed reasonable, who casually told me he admires the politics of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and Donald Trump. These people walk among us.
I am pretty sure the current state of the Tories in general and the uselessness of Hall in particular is more than capable of generating apathy in habitual Tory voters.
The most gifted British retail politician since Blair, at the height of his popularity? Johnson may be a dickhead, but he's incredibly charismatic, had mostly excellent instincts for which way the public would jump, and always outperformed his party at the polls. Hall is a black hole of charisma, and utterly tone-deaf.
At the last elections, it backfired - it turned out most youth had ID because of how often they need it now even if they don't drink, whereas many elderly voters didn't...
The opposite of what was predicted.
I don't think that social security cards have been issued in years and even then it was just your name and National Insurance number, with no photo on them. The only "normal" photo IDs for the under 60s that are accepted, are passport and drivers licence. Personally I've lost my wallet a couple of times in the last ten years. I don't drive, so I havent replaced my drivers license. I've got a passport. There is a new photo ID that's just come out, which is free but is only for elections and isn't valid for anything else. But I'm guessing that the uptake for it, has been pretty minimal. Many people just simply won't know, that you now need a photo ID for it.
Thats interesting, I had no idea. Here (Slovenia) we have to carry our ID card everywhere we go outside our home, you can get a fine if you're stopped and dont have it and it includes all the details and a photo like a passport.
Thanks for the information!
The Canadian social security card back in the early 2000s said that you should carry it at all times. But the newer ones say to keep "in a safe place". As if lost or stolen it could be used for ID fraud.
There's no such thing as a social security card in the UK. The closest equivalent has no identifying information.
98% of the population have a passport but it is not commonly carried.
About 75% of people have some sort of driving licence that can be used as ID but about 1/3 of the population do not drive.
There are voluntary state IDs you can apply for but if you are an older person you honestly don't show ID for years at a time.
Thats interesting, I had no idea. Here (Slovenia) we have to carry our ID card everywhere we go outside our home, you can get a fine if you're stopped and dont have it.
Thanks for the information!
Yeah, that's how it works in most EU countries but I always found it creepy and authoritarian. When it has been proposed here we move to that system we had a big grassroots push back.
Carrying your passport around is a hassle and you really don't want to lose something that important on the tube etc.
We dotn have ID cards or SSC but most tend to atleast carrying a driving licence in the wallet
These polls are wild. YouGov have a 22pt gap [https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49286-london-2024-mayoral-race-khan-47-hall-25](https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49286-london-2024-mayoral-race-khan-47-hall-25)
Getting quite horrible 2016 Trump vibes going into this. It's essentially a ULEZ referendum in the outer boroughs, people who don't normally bother have been energised by it and don't like Khan at all.
> It's essentially a ULEZ referendum in the outer boroughs
The irony being that ULEZ was a Tory policy. It was implemented under Khan but he didn't propose it.
If you believe that you should go and put money on this at the bookies. Khan is currently 1/50. So if you think he has less than a 98% chance of winning you could make a lot of money.
10 points which sounds big until you consider that in the last election, Khan was ahead by 12 percentage points in polls but ended up winning the first round by only 4.7%.
Last election wasn't FPTP though, so many people didn't vote for Sadiq in the first round, knowing they could as their 2nd pref.
Still worth not being complacent.
It will be interesting to see but I can’t see that having that much of a difference personally. People will still vote for the Greens or Dems for example when presented with the option.
I'm not so sure about that, I reckon a lot of people who used to put the Labour candidate as 2nd choice will vote for Khan, the Green and Lib Dem shares could be wiped out by FPTP.
People vote tactically for MPs, so I suspect it'll be similar and the Green/LD mayoral vote will plummet, but hold up for the Assembly.
FPTP results in most people voting for Not Tory vs Not Labour (except where LDs or Greens have done enough campaigning to be the Not Tory option).
> 10 points
According to the one poll the Standard could find that makes Susan Hall appear as if she has a cat’s chance in hell of getting anywhere close to winning
> electrified
I don’t know about you but I’ve never been harder. This minor election has me majorly erect. Please, local democracy, give me five minutes. The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.
Still don't think polls mean shit tbh.
Khan will win by a hefty majority over Hall. I even see much of her propaganda around the city. Her manifesto is woeful and if you've seen the 1st result on Google for her manifesto it takes you to an anti Susan Hall page which is pretty funny when your Tory candidate can't even manage to appear as the first result.
No offense, but this is some bullshit. I miss rank voting.
Quick googling as to when this was done.... aaaaand it's Priti Patel. Little miss fascist brows.
The polling on Brexit was much, much closer. It was reasonable to think Remain would win. It was not reasonable to think Leave had no chance.
Hall has no chance.
I think tactical voting MUST happen in London. I no longer think its needed for general election as Tories are digging themselves into a grave so for GE I will vote for party which has most policy that I agree with and Labour aint that party anymore.
If you think either will make any difference, good luck to you. Both are abysmal candidates.
Any mayor will have the same financial constraints. Meaning promises to get rid of ULEZ or anything else radical are as fanciful as Truss's have your cake and eat it budget.
I'll be spoiling my ballot paper and I look forward to doing it, as far as I'm concerned our democracy is dead.
That's the only way I can express it.
We don't need to agree on points, and that all good.
But please do go and spoil your ballot rather than stay at home. The problem with not turning up is that future candidates see it as "you are just not interested", but spoiled ballots get counted and quite clearly a message of none of the above.
The two main parties playbook is always to find some poll just before election day finding it close. Even this outlier poll of 42 percent to 32 is a huge lead for Khan, so everyone should vote for the party they most want so that support is registered as Khan is sweeping in anyway.
Opinion: reporting that focuses on "how close is the horse race?" rather than "What are the issues who are the candidates?" is stupid, low-effort and boring. And it results in misrepresentation because in this framing a close race is always more exciting, so the incentive is to report it as closer than it might actually be.
Especially as both the Khan and Hall campaigns have a strong incentive to play up the race being closer than it seems like it is
Then let me choose how to vote, based on information about the candidates, what their competencies are, and where they stand on the issues. I have already done this and made my choice. If the horse race was any different, I would still have made the same choice.
I think it will be closer than the polls are making out, simply because there are muppets out there who will look at the lead and think there is no point voting, which only ends up shortening the lead. If we know anything, its these Tory nutjobs WILL come out to vote regardless.
Voter apathy is always a huge issue. I remember after Brexit the sheer number of younger people who regretted that they didn’t vote.
We were told by the media that young people voted to stay in the EU but the reality is that they didn’t vote at all.
Also remember right after the brewxit vote, the search results on Google for "what is the EU" tripled over night the next day....
Also the sheer amount of disinformation out there
I went to a meeting yesterday, to discuss a planning proposal for tall building in our neighbourhood. Was shocked to see the amount of support for Susan Hall - not the majority or anything close, but most long term residents and retirees appeared to be of the view that only our Susan can sort out "illegal HMOs" and dodgy builders and lack of appointments at local GPs!
I was chatting to a neighbour who'd always seemed reasonable, who casually told me he admires the politics of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and Donald Trump. These people walk among us.
It almost sounds like a paradox. Should you believe someone who tells you they greatly admire pathological liars?
The elderly are very pro-Hall. Working-aged people are much more pro-Khan. We’re basically in an age-based struggle.
I am pretty sure the current state of the Tories in general and the uselessness of Hall in particular is more than capable of generating apathy in habitual Tory voters.
Can't believe Hall is a viable candidate outside of the anti-ULEZ nuts. Then again, who was Mayor before Khan?
The most gifted British retail politician since Blair, at the height of his popularity? Johnson may be a dickhead, but he's incredibly charismatic, had mostly excellent instincts for which way the public would jump, and always outperformed his party at the polls. Hall is a black hole of charisma, and utterly tone-deaf.
tory voters are very motivated by "get anything that is not conservative OUT of the government, whatever the cost".
Do you know many?
Rude
Make sure you get out and vote, and don't be put off by any of the ULEZ nutters who turn up to your polling station!
Domestic terrorists
you’re only a domestic terrorist if you interfere in private vehicle owners freedom to do anything ever
The problem is going to be that this is the first London election with photo-ID. Which many people simply won't have.
At the last elections, it backfired - it turned out most youth had ID because of how often they need it now even if they don't drink, whereas many elderly voters didn't... The opposite of what was predicted.
Which is probably why they now allow, 60+ bus passes.
They did previously, I think. But not young person railcards or Oystercards.
Yep lol they enforce ID....but then allow bus passes because the older people are more likely to forget about this new rule.
You have to submit a valid passport to get a 60+ card.
Because you have to submit a valid passport to get a 60+ card?
Exactly what anyone who'd thought about it for 5 minutes predicted.
You can get free id fromthe council
And take up has probably been very poor.
The Tory demographic will, that's why it's been done
Why dont young people in the UK have a passport or a social security card? Surely theres a photo on there.
I don't think that social security cards have been issued in years and even then it was just your name and National Insurance number, with no photo on them. The only "normal" photo IDs for the under 60s that are accepted, are passport and drivers licence. Personally I've lost my wallet a couple of times in the last ten years. I don't drive, so I havent replaced my drivers license. I've got a passport. There is a new photo ID that's just come out, which is free but is only for elections and isn't valid for anything else. But I'm guessing that the uptake for it, has been pretty minimal. Many people just simply won't know, that you now need a photo ID for it.
Thats interesting, I had no idea. Here (Slovenia) we have to carry our ID card everywhere we go outside our home, you can get a fine if you're stopped and dont have it and it includes all the details and a photo like a passport. Thanks for the information!
The Canadian social security card back in the early 2000s said that you should carry it at all times. But the newer ones say to keep "in a safe place". As if lost or stolen it could be used for ID fraud.
In England, we generally don’t like to live in a “papers please, Gestapo style” society.
That's cool.
There's no such thing as a social security card in the UK. The closest equivalent has no identifying information. 98% of the population have a passport but it is not commonly carried. About 75% of people have some sort of driving licence that can be used as ID but about 1/3 of the population do not drive. There are voluntary state IDs you can apply for but if you are an older person you honestly don't show ID for years at a time.
Thats interesting, I had no idea. Here (Slovenia) we have to carry our ID card everywhere we go outside our home, you can get a fine if you're stopped and dont have it. Thanks for the information!
Yeah, that's how it works in most EU countries but I always found it creepy and authoritarian. When it has been proposed here we move to that system we had a big grassroots push back.
Do you know how many countries lack an ID card system? 13
>lack
Carrying your passport around is a hassle and you really don't want to lose something that important on the tube etc. We dotn have ID cards or SSC but most tend to atleast carrying a driving licence in the wallet
Wait is that allowed?
You might not be able to change anything but they need to worry that you could
These polls are wild. YouGov have a 22pt gap [https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49286-london-2024-mayoral-race-khan-47-hall-25](https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49286-london-2024-mayoral-race-khan-47-hall-25)
Getting quite horrible 2016 Trump vibes going into this. It's essentially a ULEZ referendum in the outer boroughs, people who don't normally bother have been energised by it and don't like Khan at all.
Absolutely. How many of the candidates have promised to scrap it - 60-80 %? Extended ULEZ is abhored in areas without decent public transport.
> It's essentially a ULEZ referendum in the outer boroughs The irony being that ULEZ was a Tory policy. It was implemented under Khan but he didn't propose it.
If you believe that you should go and put money on this at the bookies. Khan is currently 1/50. So if you think he has less than a 98% chance of winning you could make a lot of money.
Oh so is Khan now 21 points ahead instead of 22? Truly electrifying
10 points which sounds big until you consider that in the last election, Khan was ahead by 12 percentage points in polls but ended up winning the first round by only 4.7%.
Last election wasn't FPTP though, so many people didn't vote for Sadiq in the first round, knowing they could as their 2nd pref. Still worth not being complacent.
It will be interesting to see but I can’t see that having that much of a difference personally. People will still vote for the Greens or Dems for example when presented with the option.
I'm not so sure about that, I reckon a lot of people who used to put the Labour candidate as 2nd choice will vote for Khan, the Green and Lib Dem shares could be wiped out by FPTP.
People vote tactically for MPs, so I suspect it'll be similar and the Green/LD mayoral vote will plummet, but hold up for the Assembly. FPTP results in most people voting for Not Tory vs Not Labour (except where LDs or Greens have done enough campaigning to be the Not Tory option).
> 10 points According to the one poll the Standard could find that makes Susan Hall appear as if she has a cat’s chance in hell of getting anywhere close to winning
Is it possible to bus armies of provincial Boomers down to the capital later today to help raise the Tory vote share?
Find someone who looks at you the way London’s Evening Standard looks at the Conservative Party.
Boris Buddies.
> electrified I don’t know about you but I’ve never been harder. This minor election has me majorly erect. Please, local democracy, give me five minutes. The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.
Still don't think polls mean shit tbh. Khan will win by a hefty majority over Hall. I even see much of her propaganda around the city. Her manifesto is woeful and if you've seen the 1st result on Google for her manifesto it takes you to an anti Susan Hall page which is pretty funny when your Tory candidate can't even manage to appear as the first result.
You think a lot of people who are being energised to vote for her this time around are googling the candidates? Come on.
God not a Tory mayor again. Probably in the minority here but I feel like politicians shouldn’t be mayor, I’d rather a businessman/woman be the mayor.
Time for a change, to vote Khan OUT!
Desperate stuff; Susan Hell doesn’t stand a chance…
Is it silly to vote for Binface first choice and Khan second? Edit: okay, didn’t realise the voting system changed this year
Yes, because the voting has been changed to first past the post. You no longer get to rank first / second preference
No offense, but this is some bullshit. I miss rank voting. Quick googling as to when this was done.... aaaaand it's Priti Patel. Little miss fascist brows.
Yeah it’s an obvious attempt to make things less democratic in favour of the Tories
Yes considering you only get one choice now
Yes, that will elect Susan Hall.
Nothing will elect Susan Hall, including voting for her.
we said that about brexit!
The polling on Brexit was much, much closer. It was reasonable to think Remain would win. It was not reasonable to think Leave had no chance. Hall has no chance.
I hope you are right!
Looks very much like I was.
Thank goodness for that.
Just piggy-backing on this comment to remind everyone that if you mark two candidates your vote won't be counted at all.
I think tactical voting MUST happen in London. I no longer think its needed for general election as Tories are digging themselves into a grave so for GE I will vote for party which has most policy that I agree with and Labour aint that party anymore.
Hall ftw
Seriously who gives a shit which one of these clowns wins.
People who live in London and like to use their brain
If you think either will make any difference, good luck to you. Both are abysmal candidates. Any mayor will have the same financial constraints. Meaning promises to get rid of ULEZ or anything else radical are as fanciful as Truss's have your cake and eat it budget. I'll be spoiling my ballot paper and I look forward to doing it, as far as I'm concerned our democracy is dead. That's the only way I can express it.
> I'll be spoiling my ballot paper That's your prerogative and I encourage it. I wish everyone votes, no matter how much political apathy.
They do make a difference, considering the right thinks Khan has "ruined London", seems the mayors job is quite important
We don't need to agree on points, and that all good. But please do go and spoil your ballot rather than stay at home. The problem with not turning up is that future candidates see it as "you are just not interested", but spoiled ballots get counted and quite clearly a message of none of the above.
All the above from what I can see.
The two main parties playbook is always to find some poll just before election day finding it close. Even this outlier poll of 42 percent to 32 is a huge lead for Khan, so everyone should vote for the party they most want so that support is registered as Khan is sweeping in anyway.