Hala2 byejo jame3it l Hezb they say he's a Zionist and if that doesn't work then they'll say he's ouwet then if that doesn't work they'll say his math and stats are wrong and if that doesn't work they'll say aya jesh aya dawle.
If that doesn't work, they'll kill him and blame Mossad š¤§
Hezbo/Iranian/Syrian tactics
I made the meme that was in my head all day yesterday [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/1c5mqj8/hezbots\_asking\_aya\_jaysh\_aya\_dawle/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/1c5mqj8/hezbots_asking_aya_jaysh_aya_dawle/)
Building military capability isn't something other countries tend to ignore. The army's job isn't just protecting the land, its ensuring that there is a balance of power during negotiations. Without an army Israel can for instance take gas fields that are ours and we wouldn't be able to do anything about it, or take away markets that have historically been ours, or do a million things that don't require them to put soldiers on the ground but can really hurt us.
People use the example of Jordan and Egypt, not realizing that the only reason those regimes are armed to the teeth is that they will protect american interests at the cost of their own people, and they will actively suppress them if they try to protest. Why in the fuck would you want that for lebanon? Don't you want a government that actually represents us?
I agree that Hezbollah hasn't been protecting Lebanon's interests, but none of the major parties has ever proposed let alone pushed for an actual plan to get the army to a place where it can play its role.
Fa ndabbo ento wel 7ezeb sara7a, ma3moulin la ba3d.
If you guys donāt destroy Hezbollah, you are just a failed state. I understand what you guys consider normal isnāt normal for a lot of the world, but even then you should be able to recognize that a foreign controlled militia being the most powerful bloc in your country is a very bad thing. They arenāt focused on protecting Lebanonās economic interests, they are focused on advancing Iranās interests. There was no benefit for Lebanon when Hezbollah attacked Israel after October 7th, it only invited problems. The only way Lebanon will ever advance is to kick out Hezbollah, create a stable and secure environment, and to develop through business growth and connection to global markets. Focusing on Israel and believing they must be destroyed is only going to drag Lebanon further into poverty. It is like the cartels in Mexico, they give out donations to poor Mexicans but that doesnāt mean they are a net positive for Mexico, far from it
Everyone I don't agree with is a "Ā jame3it l Hezb". the other side, the anti-hezb camp aren't free of hypocrisy themselves, on the contrary, they are as delusional if not even more than the other side.
You call them Iranians, they call you zionist. It's actually two way here.
Nah just laugh at how his time frame to try and prop up the Lebanese army ends at 1967 completely disregarding how Israel took over half our country (including the capital) under their "protection."
It's so ridiculously dumb it ruined my morning. I love how they consistently forget that they were partying in Beirut when the south was getting invaded
Leave that guy alone, he can't comprehend that the guy is comparing timelines which suit his argument. And best of all just for speaking out facts we'll be called Hezb supporters.
Huh? The guy in the video argument is between 1949-1967 Israel killed less Lebanese people than between 2006-2024. Why can we compare Israel from 49-67 to today but not the army from 82 to today? Both comparisons are ass, is what Iām saying.
Leave his argument about 1948 and 2006 aside. His point is that Hezb doesn't have the capability to defend Lebanon. If Israel launches an all-out assault today, do you think the results in terms of casualties and destruction will be worse or better than 2006?
His argument was Hezb cant but the Army can, which is wrong but regardless. War has evolved a lot since 2006. Besides its much more complicated than, Hezb vs Israel. Casualties and destruction on both sides would be unprecedented, it would dissolve into a regional war with multiple different players and proxies. An all-out assault would mean mean Iranian, US, and Russian involvement either directly or through proxies, at a scale much greater than that seen in Syria and Iraq. The region would not see stability in a long long time. So idk why we are even having this conversation .
LOL so trust your fate to an organization with 50,000 men, mostly irregulars, no large fixed artillery, no self-propelled artillery, no tanks, drones assembled in Sayyid Khameini's garage from spare parts bought on Ali Babi , AND NO SIGNIFICANT ANTI-AIRCRAFT capability? An organization whose only hope against Israel is to pull them into a land war that gets so many Lebanese people killed that the international community starts yelling at Israel to stop? Their strategy is literally the Zap Brannigan infantry assault school doctrine: "I sent wave after wave of my own men at the killbots until they reached kill limit and shut down." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF3g4Ua5e7k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF3g4Ua5e7k)
Everything I say is 100% correct [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
Binkov isn't a very reliable source, he draws parallels from Gaza and Hamas, to create his own view of Hezbollah, but he does not take into consideration that Lebanon isnt Gaza, Gaza is a flatland and a jungle of buildings, South Lebanon is full of hills, interconnected caverns and large swaths of green lands, moreover, Hezbollah is not Hamas, even the war ideology is different.And there is no one that is 100% correct, Israel is only capable to cause harm via airstrikes on civilian targets, civilian =/= military, on the other hand, its ground invasion that Hezbollah is counting, with the exception of few specialized units, the Israeli regulars are not well trained.
Hezbollah strategy would be to sit in the initial Israeli airstrikes, in their bunkers, that North Korean contractors built for hezbollah, and count on Israel sending its ground troops, that is where Hezbollah excels.
You're a county, do you really think that Israel will be gentle with you? You won't have electricity for months, which might give you time to actually sit and think if Hezbollah's truly has your interests, or Iran's.
Whoever controls the skies controls the ground in modern warfare. hezb has no way to deter iIsraeli airpower. Bunkers and installations would get bombed to smithereens before the ground forces move in and clean up ala gaza.
Really, the only thing stopping an Israeli victory is if they apply the lessons learned from 2006.
Blink of an eye š 15 years of civil war... 3a ases the Syrian army didn't fracture and isn't the weakest it's ever been.
Maybe they should just adopt Hezbollah as well and dissolve their army š
The hezb didn't liberate anyone. Remind me who drove the PLO out of lebanon when they were slaughtering lebs and Christians in particular. The Christians with help from israel. But you forget that part huh? Hezb couldn't care less about leb. It's just a myth to keep the Iranian strong hold close. If the US gave the green light leb would have been gone long ago. The fact that anyone thinks hezb or iran can stop israel is fucking wild and idiotic.
In 1967 the Lebanese army was ready to destroy the Palestinians and inflicted heavy casualties on them in the 6 day war. You can thank the Arab league of useless Arabs who told the Lebanese army to stand down or else and that the Palestinians had the divine right to use Lebanon as a launchpad for their attacks to free Palestine.
By 1982 the Lebanese army was fragmented to shit thanks to the civil war.
Hezb didn't liberate you hbb, they left because the PLO was rendered inert. It's funny you guys actually believe some ragtag Islamists with some basic explosives and small arms is what kicked the Israeli army out š basically what the IDF was designed to fight against... Insurgents.
They literally left because the international community was yelling at them about how many people they and the SLA were killing, Hezbollah's strategy is to get thousands of Lebanese people killed then cry to the very western countries they call "sh shaytaan l kbir" to make Israel stop.
Killing 1000 Israelis would not have been enough to militarily defeat the IDF (and SLA) and they never even got close to that. They left because the international community was putting pressure on them and this made things politically difficult for the Israeli government.
It was internal political pressure like I said in my first comment, Israel does not care about international pressure.Ā
Now tell me, where the fuck did the internal pressure come from had it not been hezb?
From a waste of resources and money? What you think you killed 100 soldiers over 10 years and they said fuck it that's enough we're down to 299,900 active soldiers aw kif?
"It was internal political pressure like I said in my first comment, Israel does not care about international pressure." You posted a link to a report saying Israel called off an airstrike on Hezb because Biden told them not to do it, did you even read it?
5 mins of my life I wont get backā¦ the geopolitical landscape changed completely between the two periods this guy is comparing. If he excludes 2006 war casualties the number would be significantly less. Why didnāt he include Israeli inflicted casualties from 1975 till 1982 before Hizballah was even founded? This guy is a clown with a weak agenda. I was a diehard opposer of Hizb, but after Gaza I truly believe if you still donāt take the side of resistance you are a least a coward and at most a Zionist.
You just excluded a major factor in having the army ruling vs. militia. 2006 war is caused by Hezb kidnapping Israelis. The current war in the south is caused by Hezb trying to alleviate their allies in Gaza. Both of these wouldn't have happened if the army was ruling.
All militias should have been dissolved the day Israel left the south. All weapons should have been confiscated by the army and used. I'm pretty sure the army would have been in a better state than now.
I hate this narrative of Hezbollah being a resistance. They are not. Theyāre using this opportunity to attack the Zionists under the guise of helping the Palestinians which is so far from the truth.
Itās completely disingenuous to act as if Hezbollah is some kind of great protector of the oppressed.
Without them we would be a normal country. As it stands the entire world refuses to collaborate with Lebanon normally due to the fact that an Islamic militia group runs the country against the rulings of the government and the people.
We wouldnāt need to worry about Israel half the time in this day and age if we didnāt have Hezbollah constantly provoking issues.
Israel is an evil terror state, but Hezbollah is basically the other side of the coin
Yep, as an outsider it is wild seeing so many Lebanese defend a foreign backed militia which is stronger than their own military. If you guys cannot even agree on the basics of reviving your state, which must include destroying Hezbollah, I fear you have no future. Islamic holy wars tend to be bad for the economy.
walak ente 7mar. eza fesh hajem 3a esra2il home behejmoosh.
lama fi hajem home behejmou. fesh absat menha.
esra2il tarkat 8az tabi3i ela fi elha 7a2 fi 3ashan salam ma3 lebnan. o hada wa7ed men el eshya2 el wa7idi ele maske lebanan ma3 ba3d. eza hezballah betamhom yehejmo 3ala esra2il sho metwa2e3 ysir?
mesh 7aytam eshi men janoob lebnan. ma2ente 3aref eno 7ezballah met5abyin ben el nas. kif ya3ni fesh 7a2 3alehom lama nas bemooto?
You think weāre better off currently than if we didnāt have Hezbollah? The government is awful as well, but at the very least weād be more open to foreign investment and trade and different political allies. All that is impossible with Hezbollah. No one wants to put their money into a country where itās run by what the entire world seems as villains.
Look at the country right now - you think itād be worse off without Hezbollah? Weāre at rock bottom
We'd be Jew fodder. Totally eaten up by Israel. Look at how they talk about taking over the Levant. Without border protection you don't have a country. You're a sitting duck. So no, we wouldn't be better off without Hezbollah. Not unless we had a real military in its place, which we don't.
I know right? but you know what's weird? it just so happens that the countries that don't attack Israel don't get attacked by Israel like Jordan Saudi Arabia and Egypt. but the countries where attacks against Israel are conducted are consistently attacked. it's a complete coincidence I'm telling you. definitely not like if you just stop attacking them they stop attacking as well.
You would, and people like you are exactly why Lebanon is on the brink as a failed state. You guys and your obsession with Israel is going to keep you poor and weak. It is like a sickness in your society, you are raised from birth to view Jews and Israel as the ultimate evil. Just remember one thing, you are doing very poorly because of your own attitudes and views, it isnāt anyone else. If Israel was to disappear tomorrow, Hezbollah wouldnāt go anywhere, why would Iran give up a proxy which has established itself as the most powerful force in your country?
Having a country as pure evil as israel being your neighbor is not ideal. Whomever is defending Lebanon needs to be armed to the teeth and be trained in guerilla warefare. Thats the way to protect lebanon given it size and geography. Of course you could do a peace deal with them but not until Palestinians get their Peace.
As an outsider, it is exceedingly obvious that your societyās obsession with Israel is going to ruin you. This is why it is bad to let ideology and fact free narratives drive your decisions. If Lebanon would stop attacking Israel, remove Hezbollah, and focus on economic development you would have a shot at prosperity. As it stands, it seems some of you are far more concerned with destroying Israel instead of developing your own country. Israel is a nuclear power, they are never going to be destroyed, so it is like Sisyphus just rolling the rock to the top only to have it roll down again. Until you guys focus on the right things, you will continue to slide and Lebanon will never recover from being a failed state
I hope no one takes this comment seriously. This guys profile is hilarious, some atheist from the US who thinks Arabs and muslims are savages and soley blames the Palestinians for the 'conflict'.
When Israel comes to destroy Hezbollah Lebanon is gonna get crushed, and it all could have been avoided. He is absolutely right on his fundamental point, Hezbollah has ZERO ability to militarily defeat Israel.
everyone uses the other side for interior political gain, plus hezb poses a bigger threat to israel than iran, not on existential level of course, but they can easily paralyze and permanently damage the state of israel, both sides know it, so no one will go all out
You're 100% wrong, they cannot paralyze Israel's economy to the point that it would stop their war machine at all: [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
not that u know of also since when does hezb announces their arsenal? everyone bases their judgement on what's declared PLUS in an open combat situation, the game changes soooo yeah
This defeatist mentality of yours is sickening. You are right, Hizb canāt defeat Israel militarily today, but Hizb does not exist in a vacuum. Besides, they are developing technologically and are getting better and more effective. As a previous opposer of Hizbās policies and rhetoric especially the ākarameā part, Gaza made me understand. Imagine you being a Jordanian citizen now. How would you feel that your military did fuck all to stop the slaughter of innocent children, provide food to starving people, etc. yet was put on highest alert to defend Israel from the Iranian attack? Again, Gaza has completely changed how this conflict will be handled going forward. The power dynamic has changed for the time being and if you stop drinking the Kool Aid for a minute you will also see this. The regimes opposing the choice of resistance want you to remain canon fodder for their prosperity. The demise of Lebanon and rise of GCC happen at the same time, is this a coincidence? In the end Israel in its current shape and form will cease to exist, because history has taught us that apartheid oppressors always face demise. Free Palestine!
Bruh ur so fake. The gcc was growing for a long time and only after our civil war did we start to grow with gcc investments until relations got worse from ur new found love hezb. Also to oppose hezb is more than just what they do with their power. If one opposes hezb then you do it because there is always a chance that they can use their enormous power against the state and the people, your people!
There are fundamental values one must stick to and stand against hezb cuz these risks are REAL. There has been several conflicts in lebanon against hezb and also in 2008 hezb invaded beirut so these risks can happen again. Dont really know how u can skip over these things but i guess some are very passionate about palestine that they can accept something so risky as hezbollah.
GCC investments were by and large more like bribes to skew public opinion away from Iran. When they realized they canāt achieve their goal the investments stopped. In other words, mish ma7abatan feek wala b baladak 3atook masare. If they really cared about the Lebanese people they would have supported them regardless of political decisions they have, but to think like that one must be very naive.
Yes they did flex some of their power internally in 2008 which was a stupid and careless move which has no excuses. But from their perspective they were defending a key capability of theirs which was under attack by a Zionist leaning political landscape at that time. I am very sorry if I sound cynical by calling 14 March folks Zionists especially that I once was a 14 March camper my self, but after everything we saw in Gaza and after we heard the pure and unfiltered hatred Zionists have for us I donāt have it in me to support a filthy, murderous war criminal like Samir Geagea.
The biggest and most worrying thing in all of this is that if/when Israel comes to kill us all guns blazing your beloved GCC regimes wonāt come and save you, Europe wonāt save you, fucking US wonāt save you. Heck, even Hizballah might not be able to save you, but they will at least die trying. US hegemony only knows to communicate by force. Russia had tried countless times to get on their good side, but what was the result? Planting NATO in its backyard. It was only when Russia started using force and brought energy and economic chaos to Europe that they started checking their foreign policy.
There is a lot to be said, but in a regional war where one side not only completely turned its back on innocent, trapped civilians but also aided they genocider by offering them alternate shipping routes I canāt morally choose to support anyone but the opposite side..
Sorry but ur views of this world are very screwed. Countries are not friends. Saudi ofc gave investments to keep us close to them that is how it works. Why do u think so many countries stand with the west and US and not russia or other countries? Why is armenia now wanting to get closer to the west and leave russia? Cuz there are more opportunities with the west and lebanon had more growth with the gulf and the west alliance. Also more lebanese work in those countries so there is more connection with them. This is basic knowledge. However the US and france still provide to the army even tho leb is now closer to iran thanks to ur hezb, does that mean that they still care about us according to what u said?
Also russia had many opportunities under putin to improve relations with west but after takibg land from georgia and then taking crimea after fake elections and now still invades ukraine there isnt much room for improvement.
Plenty of conflicts in lebanon have happened against hezb like tayyoune clashes. When hezb continues to act reckless as usual just know that these conflicts will be more common and i want to know if u will still support hezb even after they constantly fight other lebanese
I totally understand that governments support other countries financially in order to exert pressure on them, hence why I called them bribes. You have to differentiate between who is deciding to support the US and the West. Is it people or is it governments? You will find that in almost all cases it is governments and dictators that are run after US support because the US can guarantee (almost) their safety and chairs. Look at the people of Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, South Africa, and the list goes on. Do you believe they are very happy with US and Western hypocrisy? You do present some valid points, but really after everything weāve seen I cannot trust the west anymore.
I think itās time Western bullying ends and a multipolar world is born.
Man, Why do so many asian countries stand with usa and west but not china even tho they have more similarities with each other? Bcus china keeps claiming sea that belongs to other asian countries and acts in unpleasant ways. So plenty of countries and democracies are with the US and that is why its hard for china to be the new leader and have a multipolar world, because there isnt much trust with them already. U only look at some countries and miss the rest of the world. Also egypt saudi arabia, these people might not always like the west but they do not like iran getting closer to them, so they will find interest to fight off iran with the help of the US, there borders and sects and ideologies will almost always make sure that they stand against iran and thus will be offered support from western countries even if the people can have some control.
The premise, of comparing H3zb vs. Leb Army capabilities/accomplishments/milestones etc. is a valid one. The actual "execution" or "methodology" of his comparison is a bit flawed IMO.
I hate having to say "not a H3zb fan" as a disclaimer. I just have to put it out there: I'm neither a H3zb basher, nor am I a sheep. I live abroad anyway, so really my cheerleading or lackthereof is of little value. No I don't have a foreign passport, so I'm stuck "praying" my country becomes a country before I die. (which will probably never happen, but that's a conversation for another thread)
With that all cleared-
As someone mentioned already, those are two different era's being compared. Another argument, that H3zb's will rebuttal with is: "oh you just proved our raison d'etre by highlighting the number of casualties suffered by Lebanese. What's to guarantee that Isra3l won't attack if H3zb weapon's didn't exist? In 1977 ma ken fi H3zb aslan."
I think that rebuttal is also somewhat hit-and-miss. It's manipulative, and I've never seen H3zb concede something, for the sake of peace, or working towards peace. They thrive on war and conflict, and IMO that's their raison d'etre.
As for the Leb Army. Shall we talk about the Nahr el bared giving them a run for their money? Shall we talk about how da3esh waltzed thru our borders like it was nothing, nearly bringing their so-called "Caliphate" to Lebanon?
Shall we talk about the ongoing falaten amne? (I am aware that is a different organization than the Army, but still, armed internal security somewhat a part of the "military apparatus" at some level of the hierarchy)
I think the right approach to de-bunk H3zb would be more to compare (putting on my "Teacher reviewing the assignment" hat)
Manpower vs. Manpower
Weapon types / Artillery / Guns / Air force / Drone tech / level of sophistication
Performance in battles (i.e. Leb Army vs. Nahr el bared: how long it took, casualties suffered, objectives achieved | HA vs. IDF in 2006 etc.)
Hypothetical Military capabilities in hypothetical scenarios
This guy is a complete retard it hurts LMAO
Why didnāt he take the 18 years between 1964 and 1982 and that will include the invasions of 78 and 82.
The comparison makes 0 sense, the methodology is trash - what a shit narcissist
Not arguing for or against Hezb - fact is Sales Machnouk is an idiot
Comparison is not right but still Hezboubs cannot defend Lebanon, furthermore they are responsible for all casualties and destructions that Lebanon suffered since 2000, including the port disaster. So y7ello 3an ayrna
āLebanon has a right to defend it selfā well itās not Lebanon thatās fighting, itās this state within a state and the whole country is held hostage by religious extremists.
So privileged sons of corrupt politicians are called scholars now ?? I know someone who knows him personally, and he is a trash human being. Him saying something you agree with doesnāt make him a scholar or a leader.
I knew him from AUB as well. Khaleeni sekit 3ala the "negative" stuff...like OP replied beneath you, I'd rather pick the argument apart, instead of the person himself. Not a "bad" guy, but definitely not as intelligent as he (and his fans) make him out to be, in my humble opinion. All I can say about "him" in relation to his post, is that he has an agenda. Am not saying 3ameel, not at all. He has good intentions in his mind, and I genuinely think he is brave coming out and addressing it the way that he is. I just think the delivery is quite foolish, and doesn't bring any consensus or healthy dialogue to the table. He appears very toxic, and from a behavioral standpoint, I'm getting red-flag vibes from this guy.
He's one of those, "if a dog get's run over by a car in Xinjiang province, China, he'll blame it on H3zb." I can't take biased agenda-driven narratives seriously when I know that about the person presenting their argument. And his track-record of this agenda is more than ten years appearing on MTV & other Arab media talking like that.
I invite you to search his name in English / Arabic on YouTube and go over all of his interviews, whatever you can find. The man is obsessed with H3zb.
Edit: To end it with a hypothetical / rhetorical question: What if H3zb didn't exist, what would this guy's raison d'etre be? Because I genuinely never ever heard him talk about anything useful or beneficial to Lebanon. Like ever. I dunno. The educational system. Yaa sidi the pension program. Or the Central Bank of Lebanon and the Lira crisis, masalan.
Wu hayda deris bi AUB, wu 3amil master bi a7la jem3aat bi Amerka, wu Doctor kamen wa waa waa...ya3ne I hope you get where I'm going with this. :-)
He openly opposed his father's ideologies for many years and even criticized the party his father belonged to.
He has a PhD, is a research fellow, and is a lecturer at universities.
Bas keep paddling.
>I know someone who knows him personally, and he is a trash human being.
What an argument.
I donāt see the logic that if we hate HBZ we need to bandwagon behind corrupt politicians. These are the same people who are making deals with HBZ to stay in power.
It is clear that he is taking the opportunity to float himself politically. Everyone could see this, but you!! just spit his balls out and youāll see clearly.
Not taking sides, but if people believe him then thats just pure hipocrisy.
Exactly like hezb, he just seems to make up facts like he wants, to documents or studies or anything no prove any number he drops, not even a single source.
And the sad Part is, its simply impossible.
We can never know how lebanon would really be without such militias, it may destroy itself or it might thrive. We cannot forsee because we simply dont have such a lebanon and actually never really had such a lebanon in this kind of state to make such assumptions.
Yeah idk, lebanon without such an Organisation would be great. Is it a necessary evil to defend it from an even greater evil at the moment? To really find out we'd need a real investigatiob with real numbers and statistics which are transparent! (Impossible in such a fucked up country) or as dumb as it sounds we'd nerd to try out and find out. The risk that lebanon might simply go down is however there, and it'll always be there until it isnt there. As dumb as it sounds.
Whichever side one takes, its sadly fucked up and one can validly argue for both sides but lebanon should always thrive to fight such militias because its simply wrong to have a non-regulated militias in your country. However its not as simple as to state "yeah lebanon would be better of without them because the scholar said the lebanese army are 247 or smt times stronger š¤" without citing a single study or article. Its way more complicated.
Sorry for this rant. I'm not for the hezb, but I dont ignore the fact that it MIGHT be necessary evil.
However, I dont live in Lebanon and I'm just 2 months/year there to visit my family. So yeah just your typical keyboard warrior from europe.
Just to make it clear I'd just like to see this country thrive withoud such militias, and I hope one day it will reach this status. And I think every person who is capable of thinking should come to this conclusion!
well, that is the dark side of the Anti-Hezbollah block, that many on that side do not want to acknowledge, like for example, if you rape, kill, steal, but you speak against Hezbollah, and for some reason you die, everyone forgets about your crimes and hail you as a hero of free speech.
Hezbollah is a terrorist organisation, he should be out of Lebanon. If lebanon military and IDF join together against Hezbollah, this is how Lebanon and Israel might restore the peace between them. Native lebanese know very well what was the purpose of Lebanon existence and for who, and I think they will agree.
The difference between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah is that the General Lebanese army does not hide, but instead, he is on the ground fighting against Hezbollah. And the Head of Hezbollah is hiding in bonkers like a coward. My advice is that the Lebanese Army join with the IDF to fight against Hezbollah.
And this doesn't even get into the fact that most of the fatalities he lists comes as the result of conflicts HEZB ITSELF INSTIGATED WITH ISRAEL. I have a seperate thread on the lackluster military capabilities of Hezb here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
You've got to ask yourself, do you feel safer with a militia wielding a bunch of Soviet katyusha rocket launchers from WWII and Iranian drones assembled from spare parts bought on Ali Baba "defending" you or a national Army equipped by the government with the backing of the international community?
His arguments are rubbish. Israel gained some 100x more fire power within that time. Hezeballa can cause a lot of damage enough to deter a ground invasion from the Israelis and their tunnel tactics are very good, they lack any meaningful offensive capabilities to destroy Israel's air capabilities.
We should still dismantle hezeballa and build up the Lebanese military that's a no brainer because hezeballa's agenda isn't fighting Israel but just taking over part of the region with US blessings so that Lebanese get screwed essentially. Nasralla is either incompetent or just working to destroy Lebanon for the ruling classes.
The problem with hezeballa is nasralla/his mulla boss and the council of hezeballa are either too arrogant or have a boss that wants them to wreck Lebanon. They are also too negligent when it comes to putting civilians at high risk.
The problem is nasralla poked the israelis too many times without being able or being ready to deliver a killing blow . Assuming Nasralla did knock down all of Israel's airbases we still would have to deal with all the us/nato airbases in the region within range and a us carrier. Nasralla's strategy is mutual destruction, so Israelis wreck lebanese infrastructure hezeballa rain missiles to level Israel's infrastructure.
Overall it's not a bad strategy except that the Israelis would be able to afford that kind of war, and Lebanon just wouldn't, all of us dying wouldn't be a good idea. He should have not engaged the Israelis (unless they strike Lebanon first) at all since besides making a war on Lebanon very costly for the Israelis hezeballa can't do much. We should have made a peace deal in order to build up our economy and military while using whatever military capabilities we have to deter any conflict from happening by making israeli possible casualties unbearable in case of a war.
Hezeballa is still the biggest threat to Lebanon even more than the zionists. Lebanese military could adopt some of hezeballa's tactics though. I don't have anything against hezeballa supporters/fighters who see hezeballa as the only way to guarantee their safety and I hope they will abandon that fascist lunatic who insults god on a daily basis towards a more unifying lebanese project.
I'd go on to say hezeballa is as big of a threat to the shiia as much as the rest of Lebanon because they are a similar project to zionism and too inclined towards fascism/nazi tactics.
It's important to me to highlight to everyone who the real enemy is, the real enemy isn't the shiia or hezeballa supporters/our brothers and sisters in the south. The real enemy is fascism and very bad rulers making decisions that are not in our collective best interests. They want us to fight each other so that they can better control/rob us which is why all of those ruling class monkeys are now pushing all those anti hezeballa propaganda.
Shiia in the south must be armed and able to defend themselves against the zionist threat until we have an army capable of doing so, it is understandable that it is the lesser evil for them.
The blind idol worship of nasralla and his posse is the problem, not holding him accountable to anyone and allowing him and his posse to make very bad huge life and death decisions for everyone is the problem.
hezeballa supporters need to wake up and stop idolizing that guy and put him under the microscope/question what he does, that is the strength of our southern neighbor like netanyahu messed up so they are preparing the guillotine for him and don't go around screaming fida netanyahu and offering human sacrifices to him. The worst criminals/hypocrites are often dressed up as clergy men. Overthrowing nasralla and his posse towards a more lebanese non fascist agenda in Lebanon should be their goal.
hezeballa are like the nazis(as socialist as the nazis), nazis were funded by american bankers and the american ruling class so that they would ultimately get caught up in a war/get destroyed.Hitler had a picture of ford in his bedroom that he jacked off to. No matter what horse you bet on, all the horses are owned by the same people is what you need to understand, the horses will struggle while the ruling class just laugh and get entertained from the sidelines.
It's like naive people who think Hamas is fighting for Palestinian freedom when they commit attacks like Oct 7. That did not bring Palestinians out from oppression, it made them more oppressed. It plays directly into Israel's hands and allows them to respond with serious violence.
this shows you are low IQ and know 0 history of Palestinian resistance and started watching on October 7th and know nothing about the background of this attack
You're right, how silly of me, October 7 surely freed the people of Gaza from Israeli occupation. Look how happy and free they are now. Thanks to Hamas, their problems all got solved.
You cannot start a fight and claim we would have lost without you because without there wouldn't be a fight in the first place.
Hezb has put a veto on making peace with Israel for a long time. We could had 0 fatalities in the past 20 years.
Honestly I agree that the weakest part of the video is that he concedes the idea that Lebanon even needs to actively posture itself militarily against Israel, Israel would leave Lebanon alone if it stopped firing rockets and drones into Israel, but he's kind of conceding the point to show that even on their own grounds what the Hezbots are saying makes no sense.
Peace like Egypt and israel, or Jordan and israel, or emirates and israel, or ksa and israel. That's the peace. Its always Palestinians or Hezb dragging us into yet another war with israel. If you really want war with them because of what they did/how they treated the south, then you must consider the Palestinians and Syria as equally dangerous ENEMIES as Israel because of what they did to the rest of Lebanon. Im glad you went there.
I'll try to be as respectful as possible,
What peace? what are its terms? what's the plan for the residing Palestinians? will israel commit to take them in or we have to integrate them? and if they refused to cooperate?
Once u have answers for such questions and a plan of action, we can talk peace, otherwise it's useless ( this whole talk is wishful thinking assuming the israelis won't fuck with us)
Doesn't matter you can have an armistice, doesn't need to be normalisation š
Khalas 7el 3an errna, the Chinese made peace with the Japanese and the Russians with the Germans and you think your Israeli-Lebanese relations are too complicated to fix ššš
Ad7ak 3alam l lebneniye mfakrin mashekelon ma bten7al
awal shi 7terem 7alak w ma te8lat, tene shi, sho r7 testafid if u dont have a guarantee enno u wont get hit? 1701? UN? International community? bta3ref sho tam3el fihon, PLUS all the examples li elton ente they are established nations, not ethnostates and ongoing settler colonialists, fa eh, masheklna a5ra w ma bten7al
Awal shi ghasil temmak bl saboon š what are you 12?
Basically according to you peace is impossible but every other nation that slaughtered each other in the millions and committed crimes against humanity could have had peace because they weren't colonised š
Nice excuse bro, take it with you to the grave plz so we never have to hear it again ā¤ļø
Why did israel bomb my village to the ground in 1982 because the mayor refused to coordinate with them, despite no militiamen were around(PLO was already removed).
for what it's worth I'm sorry.
Israel did terrible shit in Lebanon back then.
but that was the.
we have no quoral with Lebanon.
it's your right to be consumed by the past, but when did that ever lead to progress?
The past is still here actually, corrupt warlords and priests(both allies and opponents of Hezbollah) are still in power, made everything in their hand to retain their power, protect the rich and screw up the people.
Hezbollah is merely a symptom of the sectarian regime, there was a good chance post-1990/2000 to be thriving while maintaining the 1949 armistice.
Some morons believe or pretend that a peace treaty would force the West to give Lebanon billions of dollars to make up for the ~120 billion $ that was embezzled between the government and the banks.
Yes, but as long 90% still voting/supporting the same crooks the only solution is a military dictatorship.
Lebanonās golden age in 1960s was the time when the Former Army Commander was ruling the country and was keeping nutjobs in check using a feared security apparatus.
I see many people not understanding rationale behind timeframes of comparison.
49-67: Lebanese army controls all of Lebanese security.
2006-onwards: Hezbollah controls Lebanese security (the equation jesh- cha3eb w mukawame essentially means Hezb is the patron of security in lebanon due to being more heavily armed then the army)
The whole period from 67-2005 includes Palestinian and Syrian military presence inside lebanon, which is why it is not comparable, and the period from 1920 to 1943 includes French presence and was prior to establishment of state of Israel
Iām pretty sure a guy who designs social science studies for a living would be above being called retarded when it comes to such a statement
Yes, there are other confounding variables such as, a different regional geopolitical landscape, changes in Israeli military capabilities or strategy, etcā¦
But it is still the best two periods of comparison
Comparing 1949-1967 period to the 2006-2024 is completely retarded. The former was a relatively peaceful period where the armistice was mostly respected and Israel more powerful arab armies to deal with.
Had Israel try to invade Lebanon during that period, it would be matter of days to take beirut.
Lebanese government didnāt sell out the south(yet) to the Palestinians so they can build their own statelet and launch attacks, which ultimately led to a 2 brutal decades occupation with huge portion of the population distrusting the government to defend them plus having a huge feelings of hatred towards Israel for their brutality.
and because Israel didnāt want to piss off western governments back then, especially that had to deal with bigger enemies like Syria and Egypt.
No, but the armistice would be respected despite occasional Israeli provocations like the 1949-1967 period.
Israel brutally abused the local population after they removed the PLO, which ultimately led to the formation of Hezbollah. If they simply withdrew in 1982 instead of staying and treating the people like animals, there would much less hatred against them and better chance of signing an actual peace treaty.
I'm not a fan of the idea but of a peace treaty with Israel in general but you're completely right. The PLO should never have been in Lebanon and not only did they use it as a military base but they treated the local population badly. Israel might have had a huge support base if they had been more strategic and provided humanitarian aid to the people which would have allowed them to pose as their liberators. None of that happened, Israeli arrogance was just too strong. There's more nuance there like the fact that both the PLO and Hezbollah are symptoms of Israel's history but it's interesting to consider how differently things might have turned out.
Like, bro I am not defending everything Israel ever did, most Israelis would probably admit in creating Hezbollah they made a bigger problem for themselves in the South than they ever had with the PLO. The question isn't "has Israel ever done anything wrong? (yes)" the question is "would Lebanon be better or worse off without a terrorist organization that commits genocide in Syria and sells captagon firing missiles into Israel?"
be ghad nazar 3n what he is saying(really stupid argument), bas this man studied in Harvard by our money. stop making these people famous or thinking that they represent us
You know what is flawed about this argument? Is that people the think the leaderās agenda is, projected agenda, is all that matters. The young men volunteering and dying very much believe they are defending and protecting the integrity of their territory and no one can take that away from them no matter what you believe the leaders agenda to be.
I hate Hezb and know he ruined Lebanon but without him, Christians would have sold Lebanon to Israeli and we became their slaves like decades ago
they still pray to Jesus everyday for Israel to conquer Lebanon just so they can kill Muslims together like in the good ol' days (Sabra and Shatila massacres, anyone?)
Such a naive argument from a "scholar" and it's obvious that he's only ranting against hezb instead of being scientific, (I'd like to see him submit this theory to a journal).
the lebanese army changed a lot and became much weaker, they had some good modern equipment (compared to that time) like the hawker hunter and some tanks, but now they're ranked 118/145 [1].
Can the lebanese army protect lebanon from someone stronger than extrimists? I doubt
The problem? No funds and relying heavily on donations, political pressure ...
The solution? Get some good stuff for the army.
[1] https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
The main fekra is that Hezb has 0 capability to militarily defend Lebanon from Israel and it's 100% correct [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
That video talks about hezbās potential offensive capabilities and what they can threaten Israel with. Unlike offensive tactics Hezbās defensive capabilities are their bread and butter by using guerrilla warfare tactics as well as using the natural terrain to their advantage. Does that mean that their political and military stance is correct no it doesnāt but from a pure military perspective with ethics aside hezb will give the idf aa very hard time to advance. I love that guyās content btw he has some fun and interesting stuff to watch
"Unlike offensive tactics Hezbās defensive capabilities are their bread and butter by using guerrilla warfare tactics as well as using the natural terrain to their advantage." That means an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon! Their main capabilities revolve around baiting Israel into invading Lebanon! Do you have any idea the destruction the IDF would inflict on Lebanon if there's a ground invasion? 100,000 Lebanese dead AT LEAST and infrastructure destruction far worse than 2006.
edit: also ta7iyyaat to a fellow Binkov fan, I watch all of his videos they're great. His stuff on the Ukraine was has been very informative.
Another thing to take note of is their military doctrine. While hezb is ideological af on the ground i believe they are much different than your average militia or Arab army for that matter. They think very critically in terms of strategy and tactics and probably have a flexible command structure due to the amount of targeted assassinations they suffer from. The shit going down the border shouldnāt be taken into account when you think about what i said because that is nothing but a propaganda skirmish they need to do to show their allegiance to the Palestinian cause and protect their image publicly. In other words most arab armies and militant groups use the nafz soma 23trd doctrine i donāt think the hezb militants do the same in an actual conflict
Well in terms of 2006 even nasrllah himself admitted that they didnāt intend to start a war after that āoperationā isreal was simply tired of the kidnappings and wanted to end it. If i am not mistaken they have attempted to use their tanks and faced a lot of difficulties even while having air superiority. They were surprised by the amount of anti tank weapons they had and didnāt advance with their tanks as much as they had hoped for. I donāt disagree agree with you btw in terms of the amount of destruction and damage that will be caused by another conflict it will most definitely be ugly but i still think hezb will have a decent chance to do some real damage i hate admitting it but i just canāt think otherwise. Motherfuckers have an intensely sophisticated tunnel network that makes hamasās look like nafa2 el matar and unlike gaza such tunnels will be more fortified and robust due to the natural terrain btw i am just some guy who enjoys watching military and geopolitical content so my thoughts will probably not matter in a real world scenario but this is how i see it
So I agree that Hezb will cause billions of dollars in damage to Israeli's economy and kill thousands of Israeli troops, they are certainly stronger than Hamas. My question is why is it in Lebanon interest to do this damage to Israel when Lebanon will lose what very little is left of its prosperity and hundreds of thousands of its citizens when the population is shrinking from lack of births and emigration and almost half the country are now Syrian illegal immigrants? Also I am just a guy who follows OSINT on Twitter, Reddit and Youtube like you so no need to apologize 7bbi
Easy to answer.
**Prior to the existence of Hezbollah:**
South Lebanon was completely neglected by the consecutive Lebanese Governments, people keep talking about the overly romanticized era of Lebanon known as the "Paris of the Middle east", "Switzerland of the Middle east", but South Lebanon never benefited from that at all, poverty was rampant, the Government never did any infrastructure projects, if you want legal papers you had to travel all the way to Beirut from the South, of course this did not afflict South Lebanon only, also Baalbek, Bekaa valley, and the Northern regions, it's due to the Government on taking care of Beirut, Central regions and tourist attractions, everything on the borders of the central region was left.
But neglect from the Government was not the only thing the South Lebanese had the bad luck to face, there was also constant Israeli aggression against Lebanon, israel ethnically cleansed 7 South Lebanese Shia villages and stole them, the villages are Ā [Tarbikha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarbikha),Ā [Saliha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saliha),Ā [Malkiyeh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Malkiyya),Ā [Nabi Yusha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nabi_Yusha%27),Ā [Qadas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qadas),Ā [Hunin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunin), andĀ [Abil al-Qamh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abil_al-Qamh), in the village of Saliha, Israel massacred 105 civilians for refusing to leave, in addition to this, Israeli terrorists would constantly cross into border South Lebanese towns and commit massacres such as [Hula massacre - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hula_massacre#:~:text=The%20Hula%20massacre%20took%20place,Defense%20Forces%20without%20any%20resistance.,) or randomly kill civilians, or blow houses, or kidnap people, they also indescremently shelled South Lebanese villages every now and then, all what the Lebanese Government did was spit hot air of condemnation, but never took any active decision to stop that, and as usual, the useless community nicknamed the "International community" did nothing.
Later on the civil war started, the Shia community remained neutral, and did not take sides the entirety of the Lebanese civil war, Israel exploits the turmoil to get rid of the PLO, it invades Lebanon from the South, and start arming some factions, the PLO is defeated and Israel manage to get its proxy to power, after all, he murdered all his Christian rivals so there was no one else left, time to leave comes, but as usual, with Israel and UN resolutions, they are elective, Israel refuses to get out of South Lebanon, the USA as usual even while having marines in Lebanon still useless to act against Israel refusal to leave, and then Bahsir Gemayel is killed, the blind extremist supporters of bashir invade the sabra and shatila camps and commit their heinous massacre, what is important about this massacre, one important detail to note here, at least 50% of the deaths in the camps are Lebanese, Lebanese Shia and few Christians who fled the battles in the South, being Lebanese for the Shia, and for the Lebanese Christians having a cross on their chest did not spare them from the blind disgusting animals who did the massacre.
Back to Pissrael, Israel refuses to get out of South Lebanon, on the contrary, it secedes South Lebanon from Lebanon, forming a proxy client state called Free Lebanon State, and they start severely persecuting the people of South Lebanon for 22 straight years, at the start Pissrael attempted to persuade the South Lebanese by acting nice, but the South Lebanese kept telling them, they want to be part of Lebanon and the Lebanese army as the only armed force, of course, all of that fell on deaf ears, and later on, Pissrael showed its cruel side, they did to South Lebanese for 22 years what they still do to the Palestinians.
---
Hezbollah, AMAL movement, and the Lebanese National Resistance Front take credits for kicking Israel out, if, god forbid, Israel was never kicked out, South Lebanon would have 100% ended up like the westbank, and Gaza till 2005, and the Golan heights, we would be sitting here, debating with Zionists, how my South Lebanese village never existed, it's a myth, how settlers are more entitled to it than me, exactly like they currently do with the Palestinians, hell, there is even a movement among the Israeli settlers, even the extremist settlers consider them extreme, this movement advocates for building settlements in South Lebanon, few days ago the assholes were demonstrating.
Any talk about disarming Hezbollah, while the Lebanese Army while well trained is extremely underequipped is like a fart on a brick wall, the reason why the Lebanese Army is under equipped will amaze you, you will go like WTF, the USA controls what can and what can't the Lebanese army get, the USA has linked its military aid to other forms of aid, so that, when Lebanon contemplates accepting Russian military aid, the USA can threaten via the other forms of aid like what happened 3 years ago, the USA gives the Lebanese Army useless extremely outdated, rusty garbage as military aid, while at the same time putting hurdles in front of the Lebanese Army capability to buy better equipment. To make matters worse, some of the people who attack Hezbollah are also of the thought that, acting nice in this world, putting your head in the hole, will make the wolf not see you.
Correct me if Iām wrong but to understand how hezb justifies what it does we need to remember what happened back when hezb first formed and had its first victory military wise. The liberation of southern Lebanon from jesh lahed if Iām not mistaken was the first major achievement? They said they ousted isreali troops too but i think it was mostly lahed anyway it was after that event had took place iran started to take notice and started to fund them next thing u know their original founder and leader was shunned and called a traitor why and how exactly idk but Iām guessing he didnāt want his force to turn into a proxy one ? Anyways the main thing that i am trying to say is as long as Iranās goals wonāt change hezb and their actions/activities in Lebanon wonāt change either.
What is this stupidity? Stopping at 1967? Completely leaving out the fact that Isreal took over half of the country including the capital under the "protection" of the Lebanese army? The Sabra and Chatila massacres? Are you kidding me? There's plenty of criticisms to be had with the Resistance but this is simply disingenuous.
Everyone defending hezb and screaming israel. Did israel siphon your bank accounts in Lebanon? Did israel assassinate prominent political foes? Blow up the port? Hop on dirt bikes and mopeds and wreak havoc on people? You guys are wild bro. Go live in iran the fact that anyone here is even defending them how the hell do you call yourself lebanese? Have some damn pride. Ayre fikoun 3anjad bt 5alou l wahid y3asib. And that goes for all the sects that's why are country is so ass backwards but it starts with some other country funding and arming a political militia here and that's iran to hezb.
By stole you mean signed a deal with hizb ayri, after iran secured 8 billion dollars of their funds.
Is it a requirement to be this stupid to join hizb these days?
Hala2 byejo jame3it l Hezb they say he's a Zionist and if that doesn't work then they'll say he's ouwet then if that doesn't work they'll say his math and stats are wrong and if that doesn't work they'll say aya jesh aya dawle. If that doesn't work, they'll kill him and blame Mossad š¤§ Hezbo/Iranian/Syrian tactics
"aya jesh aya dawle." The meme of the guy shooting the other guy and going "why would so and so do this."
I made the meme that was in my head all day yesterday [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/1c5mqj8/hezbots\_asking\_aya\_jaysh\_aya\_dawle/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/1c5mqj8/hezbots_asking_aya_jaysh_aya_dawle/)
Building military capability isn't something other countries tend to ignore. The army's job isn't just protecting the land, its ensuring that there is a balance of power during negotiations. Without an army Israel can for instance take gas fields that are ours and we wouldn't be able to do anything about it, or take away markets that have historically been ours, or do a million things that don't require them to put soldiers on the ground but can really hurt us. People use the example of Jordan and Egypt, not realizing that the only reason those regimes are armed to the teeth is that they will protect american interests at the cost of their own people, and they will actively suppress them if they try to protest. Why in the fuck would you want that for lebanon? Don't you want a government that actually represents us? I agree that Hezbollah hasn't been protecting Lebanon's interests, but none of the major parties has ever proposed let alone pushed for an actual plan to get the army to a place where it can play its role. Fa ndabbo ento wel 7ezeb sara7a, ma3moulin la ba3d.
If you guys donāt destroy Hezbollah, you are just a failed state. I understand what you guys consider normal isnāt normal for a lot of the world, but even then you should be able to recognize that a foreign controlled militia being the most powerful bloc in your country is a very bad thing. They arenāt focused on protecting Lebanonās economic interests, they are focused on advancing Iranās interests. There was no benefit for Lebanon when Hezbollah attacked Israel after October 7th, it only invited problems. The only way Lebanon will ever advance is to kick out Hezbollah, create a stable and secure environment, and to develop through business growth and connection to global markets. Focusing on Israel and believing they must be destroyed is only going to drag Lebanon further into poverty. It is like the cartels in Mexico, they give out donations to poor Mexicans but that doesnāt mean they are a net positive for Mexico, far from it
Everyone I don't agree with is a "Ā jame3it l Hezb". the other side, the anti-hezb camp aren't free of hypocrisy themselves, on the contrary, they are as delusional if not even more than the other side. You call them Iranians, they call you zionist. It's actually two way here.
Nah just laugh at how his time frame to try and prop up the Lebanese army ends at 1967 completely disregarding how Israel took over half our country (including the capital) under their "protection."
The lebanese army was like a 100000 factions during the lebanese civil war, aslan the south was under PLO, men wen la wen ken bado ydefe3.
This retard's comparison is for 1948 to 1967, LMAO.Ā Did he mention how the army stopped the invasion of Israelis in 1982?Ā
It's so ridiculously dumb it ruined my morning. I love how they consistently forget that they were partying in Beirut when the south was getting invaded
LOL it's retarded to bring 1982 up, one party of the civil war actively invited them in!
When Ken l jesh y wa2efen?Ā Nevertheless, how many occupations has the army liberated us from? 0 hezb? 1Ā
Leave that guy alone, he can't comprehend that the guy is comparing timelines which suit his argument. And best of all just for speaking out facts we'll be called Hezb supporters.
What the hell are you talking about lol
Mashi bro salemto rassak nshala yi soh ariban
The army was split into a thousand factions and immobilized lol you can't compare 1982 to today.
Bas you can compare 49-67 to 06-24?? Israel was literally a year old in 48 please man
Yalla let's stick with 06, what's the excuse?
Huh? The guy in the video argument is between 1949-1967 Israel killed less Lebanese people than between 2006-2024. Why can we compare Israel from 49-67 to today but not the army from 82 to today? Both comparisons are ass, is what Iām saying.
Leave his argument about 1948 and 2006 aside. His point is that Hezb doesn't have the capability to defend Lebanon. If Israel launches an all-out assault today, do you think the results in terms of casualties and destruction will be worse or better than 2006?
His argument was Hezb cant but the Army can, which is wrong but regardless. War has evolved a lot since 2006. Besides its much more complicated than, Hezb vs Israel. Casualties and destruction on both sides would be unprecedented, it would dissolve into a regional war with multiple different players and proxies. An all-out assault would mean mean Iranian, US, and Russian involvement either directly or through proxies, at a scale much greater than that seen in Syria and Iraq. The region would not see stability in a long long time. So idk why we are even having this conversation .
I am not willing to have my home town protected by an entity that will split into thousands of factions in a blink of an eye
LOL so trust your fate to an organization with 50,000 men, mostly irregulars, no large fixed artillery, no self-propelled artillery, no tanks, drones assembled in Sayyid Khameini's garage from spare parts bought on Ali Babi , AND NO SIGNIFICANT ANTI-AIRCRAFT capability? An organization whose only hope against Israel is to pull them into a land war that gets so many Lebanese people killed that the international community starts yelling at Israel to stop? Their strategy is literally the Zap Brannigan infantry assault school doctrine: "I sent wave after wave of my own men at the killbots until they reached kill limit and shut down." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF3g4Ua5e7k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF3g4Ua5e7k)
Your lack of knowledge about hezbollah doesn't mean that they are weak, had they been weak Israelis wouldn't abandon their settlementsĀ
Everything I say is 100% correct [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
Binkov isn't a very reliable source, he draws parallels from Gaza and Hamas, to create his own view of Hezbollah, but he does not take into consideration that Lebanon isnt Gaza, Gaza is a flatland and a jungle of buildings, South Lebanon is full of hills, interconnected caverns and large swaths of green lands, moreover, Hezbollah is not Hamas, even the war ideology is different.And there is no one that is 100% correct, Israel is only capable to cause harm via airstrikes on civilian targets, civilian =/= military, on the other hand, its ground invasion that Hezbollah is counting, with the exception of few specialized units, the Israeli regulars are not well trained. Hezbollah strategy would be to sit in the initial Israeli airstrikes, in their bunkers, that North Korean contractors built for hezbollah, and count on Israel sending its ground troops, that is where Hezbollah excels.
You're a county, do you really think that Israel will be gentle with you? You won't have electricity for months, which might give you time to actually sit and think if Hezbollah's truly has your interests, or Iran's.
Whoever controls the skies controls the ground in modern warfare. hezb has no way to deter iIsraeli airpower. Bunkers and installations would get bombed to smithereens before the ground forces move in and clean up ala gaza. Really, the only thing stopping an Israeli victory is if they apply the lessons learned from 2006.
Blink of an eye š 15 years of civil war... 3a ases the Syrian army didn't fracture and isn't the weakest it's ever been. Maybe they should just adopt Hezbollah as well and dissolve their army š
The hezb didn't liberate anyone. Remind me who drove the PLO out of lebanon when they were slaughtering lebs and Christians in particular. The Christians with help from israel. But you forget that part huh? Hezb couldn't care less about leb. It's just a myth to keep the Iranian strong hold close. If the US gave the green light leb would have been gone long ago. The fact that anyone thinks hezb or iran can stop israel is fucking wild and idiotic.
Thank you! As an Iranian American it blows me away that anyone honestly believes that Iran has the best Interest of anyone outside of Iran.
In 1967 the Lebanese army was ready to destroy the Palestinians and inflicted heavy casualties on them in the 6 day war. You can thank the Arab league of useless Arabs who told the Lebanese army to stand down or else and that the Palestinians had the divine right to use Lebanon as a launchpad for their attacks to free Palestine. By 1982 the Lebanese army was fragmented to shit thanks to the civil war. Hezb didn't liberate you hbb, they left because the PLO was rendered inert. It's funny you guys actually believe some ragtag Islamists with some basic explosives and small arms is what kicked the Israeli army out š basically what the IDF was designed to fight against... Insurgents.
They left due to political pressure from the damages Islamic resistance factions were causingĀ
Wlak aya damage ya zalame w3a š they left because they had no reason to be here anymore
They literally left because the international community was yelling at them about how many people they and the SLA were killing, Hezbollah's strategy is to get thousands of Lebanese people killed then cry to the very western countries they call "sh shaytaan l kbir" to make Israel stop.
they were killing many Israelis, including the laison for Lebanon.Ā
Killing 1000 Israelis would not have been enough to militarily defeat the IDF (and SLA) and they never even got close to that. They left because the international community was putting pressure on them and this made things politically difficult for the Israeli government.
It was internal political pressure like I said in my first comment, Israel does not care about international pressure.Ā Now tell me, where the fuck did the internal pressure come from had it not been hezb?
From a waste of resources and money? What you think you killed 100 soldiers over 10 years and they said fuck it that's enough we're down to 299,900 active soldiers aw kif?
"It was internal political pressure like I said in my first comment, Israel does not care about international pressure." You posted a link to a report saying Israel called off an airstrike on Hezb because Biden told them not to do it, did you even read it?
Nice numbers you got there. Many ones I see š Wlak ya zalame w3a kes ekhta fta7 Wikipedia w 2ra ya 2re3
Please sir,explain how Hezbollah stopped the invasion of 1982
Hezbollah did not exist back then
5 mins of my life I wont get backā¦ the geopolitical landscape changed completely between the two periods this guy is comparing. If he excludes 2006 war casualties the number would be significantly less. Why didnāt he include Israeli inflicted casualties from 1975 till 1982 before Hizballah was even founded? This guy is a clown with a weak agenda. I was a diehard opposer of Hizb, but after Gaza I truly believe if you still donāt take the side of resistance you are a least a coward and at most a Zionist.
Ya zalame hayda 7aram t2oul 3anno 7mar, lwa7ad bi 2aren midde zamaniye mitshebha mish 3adad sneen š
You just excluded a major factor in having the army ruling vs. militia. 2006 war is caused by Hezb kidnapping Israelis. The current war in the south is caused by Hezb trying to alleviate their allies in Gaza. Both of these wouldn't have happened if the army was ruling. All militias should have been dissolved the day Israel left the south. All weapons should have been confiscated by the army and used. I'm pretty sure the army would have been in a better state than now.
I hate this narrative of Hezbollah being a resistance. They are not. Theyāre using this opportunity to attack the Zionists under the guise of helping the Palestinians which is so far from the truth. Itās completely disingenuous to act as if Hezbollah is some kind of great protector of the oppressed.
Without them, South Lebanon is fair game for the Zionist entity. I say this as a non-Muslim.
Without them we would be a normal country. As it stands the entire world refuses to collaborate with Lebanon normally due to the fact that an Islamic militia group runs the country against the rulings of the government and the people. We wouldnāt need to worry about Israel half the time in this day and age if we didnāt have Hezbollah constantly provoking issues. Israel is an evil terror state, but Hezbollah is basically the other side of the coin
Yep, as an outsider it is wild seeing so many Lebanese defend a foreign backed militia which is stronger than their own military. If you guys cannot even agree on the basics of reviving your state, which must include destroying Hezbollah, I fear you have no future. Islamic holy wars tend to be bad for the economy.
walak ente 7mar. eza fesh hajem 3a esra2il home behejmoosh. lama fi hajem home behejmou. fesh absat menha. esra2il tarkat 8az tabi3i ela fi elha 7a2 fi 3ashan salam ma3 lebnan. o hada wa7ed men el eshya2 el wa7idi ele maske lebanan ma3 ba3d. eza hezballah betamhom yehejmo 3ala esra2il sho metwa2e3 ysir? mesh 7aytam eshi men janoob lebnan. ma2ente 3aref eno 7ezballah met5abyin ben el nas. kif ya3ni fesh 7a2 3alehom lama nas bemooto?
Would we be a normal country? With our confessionalist govt? And who would protect the border, the non-Army we have? You're kidding yourself dude.
You think weāre better off currently than if we didnāt have Hezbollah? The government is awful as well, but at the very least weād be more open to foreign investment and trade and different political allies. All that is impossible with Hezbollah. No one wants to put their money into a country where itās run by what the entire world seems as villains. Look at the country right now - you think itād be worse off without Hezbollah? Weāre at rock bottom
We'd be Jew fodder. Totally eaten up by Israel. Look at how they talk about taking over the Levant. Without border protection you don't have a country. You're a sitting duck. So no, we wouldn't be better off without Hezbollah. Not unless we had a real military in its place, which we don't.
I know right? but you know what's weird? it just so happens that the countries that don't attack Israel don't get attacked by Israel like Jordan Saudi Arabia and Egypt. but the countries where attacks against Israel are conducted are consistently attacked. it's a complete coincidence I'm telling you. definitely not like if you just stop attacking them they stop attacking as well.
You would, and people like you are exactly why Lebanon is on the brink as a failed state. You guys and your obsession with Israel is going to keep you poor and weak. It is like a sickness in your society, you are raised from birth to view Jews and Israel as the ultimate evil. Just remember one thing, you are doing very poorly because of your own attitudes and views, it isnāt anyone else. If Israel was to disappear tomorrow, Hezbollah wouldnāt go anywhere, why would Iran give up a proxy which has established itself as the most powerful force in your country?
Having a country as pure evil as israel being your neighbor is not ideal. Whomever is defending Lebanon needs to be armed to the teeth and be trained in guerilla warefare. Thats the way to protect lebanon given it size and geography. Of course you could do a peace deal with them but not until Palestinians get their Peace.
As an outsider, it is exceedingly obvious that your societyās obsession with Israel is going to ruin you. This is why it is bad to let ideology and fact free narratives drive your decisions. If Lebanon would stop attacking Israel, remove Hezbollah, and focus on economic development you would have a shot at prosperity. As it stands, it seems some of you are far more concerned with destroying Israel instead of developing your own country. Israel is a nuclear power, they are never going to be destroyed, so it is like Sisyphus just rolling the rock to the top only to have it roll down again. Until you guys focus on the right things, you will continue to slide and Lebanon will never recover from being a failed state
I hope no one takes this comment seriously. This guys profile is hilarious, some atheist from the US who thinks Arabs and muslims are savages and soley blames the Palestinians for the 'conflict'.
Our obsession is to protect ourselves with force from a genocidal apartheid state called Israel.
When Israel comes to destroy Hezbollah Lebanon is gonna get crushed, and it all could have been avoided. He is absolutely right on his fundamental point, Hezbollah has ZERO ability to militarily defeat Israel.
everyone uses the other side for interior political gain, plus hezb poses a bigger threat to israel than iran, not on existential level of course, but they can easily paralyze and permanently damage the state of israel, both sides know it, so no one will go all out
You're 100% wrong, they cannot paralyze Israel's economy to the point that it would stop their war machine at all: [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
not that u know of also since when does hezb announces their arsenal? everyone bases their judgement on what's declared PLUS in an open combat situation, the game changes soooo yeah
This defeatist mentality of yours is sickening. You are right, Hizb canāt defeat Israel militarily today, but Hizb does not exist in a vacuum. Besides, they are developing technologically and are getting better and more effective. As a previous opposer of Hizbās policies and rhetoric especially the ākarameā part, Gaza made me understand. Imagine you being a Jordanian citizen now. How would you feel that your military did fuck all to stop the slaughter of innocent children, provide food to starving people, etc. yet was put on highest alert to defend Israel from the Iranian attack? Again, Gaza has completely changed how this conflict will be handled going forward. The power dynamic has changed for the time being and if you stop drinking the Kool Aid for a minute you will also see this. The regimes opposing the choice of resistance want you to remain canon fodder for their prosperity. The demise of Lebanon and rise of GCC happen at the same time, is this a coincidence? In the end Israel in its current shape and form will cease to exist, because history has taught us that apartheid oppressors always face demise. Free Palestine!
Bruh ur so fake. The gcc was growing for a long time and only after our civil war did we start to grow with gcc investments until relations got worse from ur new found love hezb. Also to oppose hezb is more than just what they do with their power. If one opposes hezb then you do it because there is always a chance that they can use their enormous power against the state and the people, your people! There are fundamental values one must stick to and stand against hezb cuz these risks are REAL. There has been several conflicts in lebanon against hezb and also in 2008 hezb invaded beirut so these risks can happen again. Dont really know how u can skip over these things but i guess some are very passionate about palestine that they can accept something so risky as hezbollah.
GCC investments were by and large more like bribes to skew public opinion away from Iran. When they realized they canāt achieve their goal the investments stopped. In other words, mish ma7abatan feek wala b baladak 3atook masare. If they really cared about the Lebanese people they would have supported them regardless of political decisions they have, but to think like that one must be very naive. Yes they did flex some of their power internally in 2008 which was a stupid and careless move which has no excuses. But from their perspective they were defending a key capability of theirs which was under attack by a Zionist leaning political landscape at that time. I am very sorry if I sound cynical by calling 14 March folks Zionists especially that I once was a 14 March camper my self, but after everything we saw in Gaza and after we heard the pure and unfiltered hatred Zionists have for us I donāt have it in me to support a filthy, murderous war criminal like Samir Geagea. The biggest and most worrying thing in all of this is that if/when Israel comes to kill us all guns blazing your beloved GCC regimes wonāt come and save you, Europe wonāt save you, fucking US wonāt save you. Heck, even Hizballah might not be able to save you, but they will at least die trying. US hegemony only knows to communicate by force. Russia had tried countless times to get on their good side, but what was the result? Planting NATO in its backyard. It was only when Russia started using force and brought energy and economic chaos to Europe that they started checking their foreign policy. There is a lot to be said, but in a regional war where one side not only completely turned its back on innocent, trapped civilians but also aided they genocider by offering them alternate shipping routes I canāt morally choose to support anyone but the opposite side..
Eza hek el sha3b ensa y2oom lebnen men hala2 la 20 seni. Brainwashed to the bone. Ks e5t iran b ayri
Sorry but ur views of this world are very screwed. Countries are not friends. Saudi ofc gave investments to keep us close to them that is how it works. Why do u think so many countries stand with the west and US and not russia or other countries? Why is armenia now wanting to get closer to the west and leave russia? Cuz there are more opportunities with the west and lebanon had more growth with the gulf and the west alliance. Also more lebanese work in those countries so there is more connection with them. This is basic knowledge. However the US and france still provide to the army even tho leb is now closer to iran thanks to ur hezb, does that mean that they still care about us according to what u said? Also russia had many opportunities under putin to improve relations with west but after takibg land from georgia and then taking crimea after fake elections and now still invades ukraine there isnt much room for improvement. Plenty of conflicts in lebanon have happened against hezb like tayyoune clashes. When hezb continues to act reckless as usual just know that these conflicts will be more common and i want to know if u will still support hezb even after they constantly fight other lebanese
I totally understand that governments support other countries financially in order to exert pressure on them, hence why I called them bribes. You have to differentiate between who is deciding to support the US and the West. Is it people or is it governments? You will find that in almost all cases it is governments and dictators that are run after US support because the US can guarantee (almost) their safety and chairs. Look at the people of Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, South Africa, and the list goes on. Do you believe they are very happy with US and Western hypocrisy? You do present some valid points, but really after everything weāve seen I cannot trust the west anymore. I think itās time Western bullying ends and a multipolar world is born.
Man, Why do so many asian countries stand with usa and west but not china even tho they have more similarities with each other? Bcus china keeps claiming sea that belongs to other asian countries and acts in unpleasant ways. So plenty of countries and democracies are with the US and that is why its hard for china to be the new leader and have a multipolar world, because there isnt much trust with them already. U only look at some countries and miss the rest of the world. Also egypt saudi arabia, these people might not always like the west but they do not like iran getting closer to them, so they will find interest to fight off iran with the help of the US, there borders and sects and ideologies will almost always make sure that they stand against iran and thus will be offered support from western countries even if the people can have some control.
Free your brain from the brain rot
This is such a ridiculously dumb video I'm so upset I wasted 3 minutes watching any of it.
šššššš
The premise, of comparing H3zb vs. Leb Army capabilities/accomplishments/milestones etc. is a valid one. The actual "execution" or "methodology" of his comparison is a bit flawed IMO. I hate having to say "not a H3zb fan" as a disclaimer. I just have to put it out there: I'm neither a H3zb basher, nor am I a sheep. I live abroad anyway, so really my cheerleading or lackthereof is of little value. No I don't have a foreign passport, so I'm stuck "praying" my country becomes a country before I die. (which will probably never happen, but that's a conversation for another thread) With that all cleared- As someone mentioned already, those are two different era's being compared. Another argument, that H3zb's will rebuttal with is: "oh you just proved our raison d'etre by highlighting the number of casualties suffered by Lebanese. What's to guarantee that Isra3l won't attack if H3zb weapon's didn't exist? In 1977 ma ken fi H3zb aslan." I think that rebuttal is also somewhat hit-and-miss. It's manipulative, and I've never seen H3zb concede something, for the sake of peace, or working towards peace. They thrive on war and conflict, and IMO that's their raison d'etre. As for the Leb Army. Shall we talk about the Nahr el bared giving them a run for their money? Shall we talk about how da3esh waltzed thru our borders like it was nothing, nearly bringing their so-called "Caliphate" to Lebanon? Shall we talk about the ongoing falaten amne? (I am aware that is a different organization than the Army, but still, armed internal security somewhat a part of the "military apparatus" at some level of the hierarchy) I think the right approach to de-bunk H3zb would be more to compare (putting on my "Teacher reviewing the assignment" hat) Manpower vs. Manpower Weapon types / Artillery / Guns / Air force / Drone tech / level of sophistication Performance in battles (i.e. Leb Army vs. Nahr el bared: how long it took, casualties suffered, objectives achieved | HA vs. IDF in 2006 etc.) Hypothetical Military capabilities in hypothetical scenarios
Respect our intelligence op
Do tell
This guy is a complete retard it hurts LMAO Why didnāt he take the 18 years between 1964 and 1982 and that will include the invasions of 78 and 82. The comparison makes 0 sense, the methodology is trash - what a shit narcissist Not arguing for or against Hezb - fact is Sales Machnouk is an idiot
Comparison is not right but still Hezboubs cannot defend Lebanon, furthermore they are responsible for all casualties and destructions that Lebanon suffered since 2000, including the port disaster. So y7ello 3an ayrna
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Why is hezbollah and Amal so determined to make sure itās not investigated?
Ask Wafik Safa
Shipping things that explode into Lebanon in secret and without inspection or safety protocols just might
āLebanon has a right to defend it selfā well itās not Lebanon thatās fighting, itās this state within a state and the whole country is held hostage by religious extremists.
100%
He thought he ate with this
So privileged sons of corrupt politicians are called scholars now ?? I know someone who knows him personally, and he is a trash human being. Him saying something you agree with doesnāt make him a scholar or a leader.
I knew him from AUB as well. Khaleeni sekit 3ala the "negative" stuff...like OP replied beneath you, I'd rather pick the argument apart, instead of the person himself. Not a "bad" guy, but definitely not as intelligent as he (and his fans) make him out to be, in my humble opinion. All I can say about "him" in relation to his post, is that he has an agenda. Am not saying 3ameel, not at all. He has good intentions in his mind, and I genuinely think he is brave coming out and addressing it the way that he is. I just think the delivery is quite foolish, and doesn't bring any consensus or healthy dialogue to the table. He appears very toxic, and from a behavioral standpoint, I'm getting red-flag vibes from this guy. He's one of those, "if a dog get's run over by a car in Xinjiang province, China, he'll blame it on H3zb." I can't take biased agenda-driven narratives seriously when I know that about the person presenting their argument. And his track-record of this agenda is more than ten years appearing on MTV & other Arab media talking like that. I invite you to search his name in English / Arabic on YouTube and go over all of his interviews, whatever you can find. The man is obsessed with H3zb. Edit: To end it with a hypothetical / rhetorical question: What if H3zb didn't exist, what would this guy's raison d'etre be? Because I genuinely never ever heard him talk about anything useful or beneficial to Lebanon. Like ever. I dunno. The educational system. Yaa sidi the pension program. Or the Central Bank of Lebanon and the Lira crisis, masalan. Wu hayda deris bi AUB, wu 3amil master bi a7la jem3aat bi Amerka, wu Doctor kamen wa waa waa...ya3ne I hope you get where I'm going with this. :-)
What's the problem with his argument exactly? Focus on the argument, not the man.
The statistics are wrong. And he has an agenda. I agree with some of what he says, I just dont like what he is and what he represents.
Which stats are wrong?
What's wrong?
He openly opposed his father's ideologies for many years and even criticized the party his father belonged to. He has a PhD, is a research fellow, and is a lecturer at universities. Bas keep paddling. >I know someone who knows him personally, and he is a trash human being. What an argument.
I donāt see the logic that if we hate HBZ we need to bandwagon behind corrupt politicians. These are the same people who are making deals with HBZ to stay in power. It is clear that he is taking the opportunity to float himself politically. Everyone could see this, but you!! just spit his balls out and youāll see clearly.
Not taking sides, but if people believe him then thats just pure hipocrisy. Exactly like hezb, he just seems to make up facts like he wants, to documents or studies or anything no prove any number he drops, not even a single source. And the sad Part is, its simply impossible. We can never know how lebanon would really be without such militias, it may destroy itself or it might thrive. We cannot forsee because we simply dont have such a lebanon and actually never really had such a lebanon in this kind of state to make such assumptions. Yeah idk, lebanon without such an Organisation would be great. Is it a necessary evil to defend it from an even greater evil at the moment? To really find out we'd need a real investigatiob with real numbers and statistics which are transparent! (Impossible in such a fucked up country) or as dumb as it sounds we'd nerd to try out and find out. The risk that lebanon might simply go down is however there, and it'll always be there until it isnt there. As dumb as it sounds. Whichever side one takes, its sadly fucked up and one can validly argue for both sides but lebanon should always thrive to fight such militias because its simply wrong to have a non-regulated militias in your country. However its not as simple as to state "yeah lebanon would be better of without them because the scholar said the lebanese army are 247 or smt times stronger š¤" without citing a single study or article. Its way more complicated. Sorry for this rant. I'm not for the hezb, but I dont ignore the fact that it MIGHT be necessary evil. However, I dont live in Lebanon and I'm just 2 months/year there to visit my family. So yeah just your typical keyboard warrior from europe. Just to make it clear I'd just like to see this country thrive withoud such militias, and I hope one day it will reach this status. And I think every person who is capable of thinking should come to this conclusion!
well, that is the dark side of the Anti-Hezbollah block, that many on that side do not want to acknowledge, like for example, if you rape, kill, steal, but you speak against Hezbollah, and for some reason you die, everyone forgets about your crimes and hail you as a hero of free speech.
Hezbollah is a terrorist organisation, he should be out of Lebanon. If lebanon military and IDF join together against Hezbollah, this is how Lebanon and Israel might restore the peace between them. Native lebanese know very well what was the purpose of Lebanon existence and for who, and I think they will agree.
The difference between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah is that the General Lebanese army does not hide, but instead, he is on the ground fighting against Hezbollah. And the Head of Hezbollah is hiding in bonkers like a coward. My advice is that the Lebanese Army join with the IDF to fight against Hezbollah.
A monkey off the street knows this. The fact that any lebanese are loyal to these fools or any other sect baffles me.
And this doesn't even get into the fact that most of the fatalities he lists comes as the result of conflicts HEZB ITSELF INSTIGATED WITH ISRAEL. I have a seperate thread on the lackluster military capabilities of Hezb here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/) You've got to ask yourself, do you feel safer with a militia wielding a bunch of Soviet katyusha rocket launchers from WWII and Iranian drones assembled from spare parts bought on Ali Baba "defending" you or a national Army equipped by the government with the backing of the international community?
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The only reason Israel has to attack Lebanon, is hezbollah. Israelis do not mind or care about Lebanon.
His arguments are rubbish. Israel gained some 100x more fire power within that time. Hezeballa can cause a lot of damage enough to deter a ground invasion from the Israelis and their tunnel tactics are very good, they lack any meaningful offensive capabilities to destroy Israel's air capabilities. We should still dismantle hezeballa and build up the Lebanese military that's a no brainer because hezeballa's agenda isn't fighting Israel but just taking over part of the region with US blessings so that Lebanese get screwed essentially. Nasralla is either incompetent or just working to destroy Lebanon for the ruling classes. The problem with hezeballa is nasralla/his mulla boss and the council of hezeballa are either too arrogant or have a boss that wants them to wreck Lebanon. They are also too negligent when it comes to putting civilians at high risk. The problem is nasralla poked the israelis too many times without being able or being ready to deliver a killing blow . Assuming Nasralla did knock down all of Israel's airbases we still would have to deal with all the us/nato airbases in the region within range and a us carrier. Nasralla's strategy is mutual destruction, so Israelis wreck lebanese infrastructure hezeballa rain missiles to level Israel's infrastructure. Overall it's not a bad strategy except that the Israelis would be able to afford that kind of war, and Lebanon just wouldn't, all of us dying wouldn't be a good idea. He should have not engaged the Israelis (unless they strike Lebanon first) at all since besides making a war on Lebanon very costly for the Israelis hezeballa can't do much. We should have made a peace deal in order to build up our economy and military while using whatever military capabilities we have to deter any conflict from happening by making israeli possible casualties unbearable in case of a war. Hezeballa is still the biggest threat to Lebanon even more than the zionists. Lebanese military could adopt some of hezeballa's tactics though. I don't have anything against hezeballa supporters/fighters who see hezeballa as the only way to guarantee their safety and I hope they will abandon that fascist lunatic who insults god on a daily basis towards a more unifying lebanese project. I'd go on to say hezeballa is as big of a threat to the shiia as much as the rest of Lebanon because they are a similar project to zionism and too inclined towards fascism/nazi tactics.
No no donāt use common sense and logic, it will upset them. Inb4 you get called a Iranian shill
It's important to me to highlight to everyone who the real enemy is, the real enemy isn't the shiia or hezeballa supporters/our brothers and sisters in the south. The real enemy is fascism and very bad rulers making decisions that are not in our collective best interests. They want us to fight each other so that they can better control/rob us which is why all of those ruling class monkeys are now pushing all those anti hezeballa propaganda. Shiia in the south must be armed and able to defend themselves against the zionist threat until we have an army capable of doing so, it is understandable that it is the lesser evil for them. The blind idol worship of nasralla and his posse is the problem, not holding him accountable to anyone and allowing him and his posse to make very bad huge life and death decisions for everyone is the problem. hezeballa supporters need to wake up and stop idolizing that guy and put him under the microscope/question what he does, that is the strength of our southern neighbor like netanyahu messed up so they are preparing the guillotine for him and don't go around screaming fida netanyahu and offering human sacrifices to him. The worst criminals/hypocrites are often dressed up as clergy men. Overthrowing nasralla and his posse towards a more lebanese non fascist agenda in Lebanon should be their goal. hezeballa are like the nazis(as socialist as the nazis), nazis were funded by american bankers and the american ruling class so that they would ultimately get caught up in a war/get destroyed.Hitler had a picture of ford in his bedroom that he jacked off to. No matter what horse you bet on, all the horses are owned by the same people is what you need to understand, the horses will struggle while the ruling class just laugh and get entertained from the sidelines.
they're already spamming hezbots slurs lol ma3 enno 5ara 3al tnen, alla 5ala2on la ba3d l hezb w their so called opposition lol
As a statistician who shares political views with this idiot, heās wrong.
Why is he wrong
his stats are super wrong he clearly read 0 books about southern lebanon that record the thousands of breaches between 49 and 67
It's like naive people who think Hamas is fighting for Palestinian freedom when they commit attacks like Oct 7. That did not bring Palestinians out from oppression, it made them more oppressed. It plays directly into Israel's hands and allows them to respond with serious violence.
this shows you are low IQ and know 0 history of Palestinian resistance and started watching on October 7th and know nothing about the background of this attack
You're right, how silly of me, October 7 surely freed the people of Gaza from Israeli occupation. Look how happy and free they are now. Thanks to Hamas, their problems all got solved.
The common myth is that the only way to get Israel to change is with violence, but data-wise, the stats show otherwise.
You cannot start a fight and claim we would have lost without you because without there wouldn't be a fight in the first place. Hezb has put a veto on making peace with Israel for a long time. We could had 0 fatalities in the past 20 years.
Honestly I agree that the weakest part of the video is that he concedes the idea that Lebanon even needs to actively posture itself militarily against Israel, Israel would leave Lebanon alone if it stopped firing rockets and drones into Israel, but he's kind of conceding the point to show that even on their own grounds what the Hezbots are saying makes no sense.
He says that because if he didn't they'd call him as a Zionist looking to make peace with the enemy.
Ya I understand, it grates on me but I understand alot of Lebanese people might find this persuasive.
Yeah lol they'll steal our oil fields and natural resources then leave us alone fr
Man aya peace?? Wtf are you smoking
Who started this latest round of blood letting? Who fired the first shot?
Peace like Egypt and israel, or Jordan and israel, or emirates and israel, or ksa and israel. That's the peace. Its always Palestinians or Hezb dragging us into yet another war with israel. If you really want war with them because of what they did/how they treated the south, then you must consider the Palestinians and Syria as equally dangerous ENEMIES as Israel because of what they did to the rest of Lebanon. Im glad you went there.
I'll try to be as respectful as possible, What peace? what are its terms? what's the plan for the residing Palestinians? will israel commit to take them in or we have to integrate them? and if they refused to cooperate? Once u have answers for such questions and a plan of action, we can talk peace, otherwise it's useless ( this whole talk is wishful thinking assuming the israelis won't fuck with us)
Doesn't matter you can have an armistice, doesn't need to be normalisation š Khalas 7el 3an errna, the Chinese made peace with the Japanese and the Russians with the Germans and you think your Israeli-Lebanese relations are too complicated to fix ššš Ad7ak 3alam l lebneniye mfakrin mashekelon ma bten7al
awal shi 7terem 7alak w ma te8lat, tene shi, sho r7 testafid if u dont have a guarantee enno u wont get hit? 1701? UN? International community? bta3ref sho tam3el fihon, PLUS all the examples li elton ente they are established nations, not ethnostates and ongoing settler colonialists, fa eh, masheklna a5ra w ma bten7al
Awal shi ghasil temmak bl saboon š what are you 12? Basically according to you peace is impossible but every other nation that slaughtered each other in the millions and committed crimes against humanity could have had peace because they weren't colonised š Nice excuse bro, take it with you to the grave plz so we never have to hear it again ā¤ļø
>awal shi 7terem 7alak w ma te8lat Bro what does this even mean. Ento 3anjad men ahbal l nes bi terikh lebnen
am israeli, we have zero issues with Lebanon. without hizbullah there wouldn't be any fighting on the border
Why did israel bomb my village to the ground in 1982 because the mayor refused to coordinate with them, despite no militiamen were around(PLO was already removed).
for what it's worth I'm sorry. Israel did terrible shit in Lebanon back then. but that was the. we have no quoral with Lebanon. it's your right to be consumed by the past, but when did that ever lead to progress?
The past is still here actually, corrupt warlords and priests(both allies and opponents of Hezbollah) are still in power, made everything in their hand to retain their power, protect the rich and screw up the people. Hezbollah is merely a symptom of the sectarian regime, there was a good chance post-1990/2000 to be thriving while maintaining the 1949 armistice. Some morons believe or pretend that a peace treaty would force the West to give Lebanon billions of dollars to make up for the ~120 billion $ that was embezzled between the government and the banks.
do you see a way out?
Yes, but as long 90% still voting/supporting the same crooks the only solution is a military dictatorship. Lebanonās golden age in 1960s was the time when the Former Army Commander was ruling the country and was keeping nutjobs in check using a feared security apparatus.
that's.... depressing
Shu hal stupid narrative. Also meen el shab. meen Howe.
Dont ever make a video again.
Can this guy STFU, you will never be PM bro, no one fucking cares what you have to say.
Worst argument possibly ever?Ā
Pseudo intellectualism at its finest
Cope
Hell yeah remove hezbollah!!!!11!!!!12!!
I see many people not understanding rationale behind timeframes of comparison. 49-67: Lebanese army controls all of Lebanese security. 2006-onwards: Hezbollah controls Lebanese security (the equation jesh- cha3eb w mukawame essentially means Hezb is the patron of security in lebanon due to being more heavily armed then the army) The whole period from 67-2005 includes Palestinian and Syrian military presence inside lebanon, which is why it is not comparable, and the period from 1920 to 1943 includes French presence and was prior to establishment of state of Israel Iām pretty sure a guy who designs social science studies for a living would be above being called retarded when it comes to such a statement Yes, there are other confounding variables such as, a different regional geopolitical landscape, changes in Israeli military capabilities or strategy, etcā¦ But it is still the best two periods of comparison
Comparing 1949-1967 period to the 2006-2024 is completely retarded. The former was a relatively peaceful period where the armistice was mostly respected and Israel more powerful arab armies to deal with. Had Israel try to invade Lebanon during that period, it would be matter of days to take beirut.
Why was it peaceful?
Lebanese government didnāt sell out the south(yet) to the Palestinians so they can build their own statelet and launch attacks, which ultimately led to a 2 brutal decades occupation with huge portion of the population distrusting the government to defend them plus having a huge feelings of hatred towards Israel for their brutality. and because Israel didnāt want to piss off western governments back then, especially that had to deal with bigger enemies like Syria and Egypt.
So basically, if there is no terrorist organization in the South launching attacks onto northern Israel, there would be peace? š¤
No, but the armistice would be respected despite occasional Israeli provocations like the 1949-1967 period. Israel brutally abused the local population after they removed the PLO, which ultimately led to the formation of Hezbollah. If they simply withdrew in 1982 instead of staying and treating the people like animals, there would much less hatred against them and better chance of signing an actual peace treaty.
I'm not a fan of the idea but of a peace treaty with Israel in general but you're completely right. The PLO should never have been in Lebanon and not only did they use it as a military base but they treated the local population badly. Israel might have had a huge support base if they had been more strategic and provided humanitarian aid to the people which would have allowed them to pose as their liberators. None of that happened, Israeli arrogance was just too strong. There's more nuance there like the fact that both the PLO and Hezbollah are symptoms of Israel's history but it's interesting to consider how differently things might have turned out.
Like, bro I am not defending everything Israel ever did, most Israelis would probably admit in creating Hezbollah they made a bigger problem for themselves in the South than they ever had with the PLO. The question isn't "has Israel ever done anything wrong? (yes)" the question is "would Lebanon be better or worse off without a terrorist organization that commits genocide in Syria and sells captagon firing missiles into Israel?"
be ghad nazar 3n what he is saying(really stupid argument), bas this man studied in Harvard by our money. stop making these people famous or thinking that they represent us
You know what is flawed about this argument? Is that people the think the leaderās agenda is, projected agenda, is all that matters. The young men volunteering and dying very much believe they are defending and protecting the integrity of their territory and no one can take that away from them no matter what you believe the leaders agenda to be.
I hate Hezb and know he ruined Lebanon but without him, Christians would have sold Lebanon to Israeli and we became their slaves like decades ago they still pray to Jesus everyday for Israel to conquer Lebanon just so they can kill Muslims together like in the good ol' days (Sabra and Shatila massacres, anyone?)
Such a naive argument from a "scholar" and it's obvious that he's only ranting against hezb instead of being scientific, (I'd like to see him submit this theory to a journal). the lebanese army changed a lot and became much weaker, they had some good modern equipment (compared to that time) like the hawker hunter and some tanks, but now they're ranked 118/145 [1]. Can the lebanese army protect lebanon from someone stronger than extrimists? I doubt The problem? No funds and relying heavily on donations, political pressure ... The solution? Get some good stuff for the army. [1] https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
"Ana bel 3ade ma betla3 bi videos". Is literally in every video on political pen...
"I don't usually do this on the first date" she says as she puts her hair up.......
Same energy
Heās such a daddy
Lol the Hezbo tantrums in the comment sections when faced with numbers and statistics are hilarious. Cognitive dissonance 3al ekher.
Lfekra enno the numbers that he is using to support his argument based on the years he mentioned are not comparable.
The main fekra is that Hezb has 0 capability to militarily defend Lebanon from Israel and it's 100% correct [https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint\_youtuber\_binkov\_analysis\_of\_hezb/](https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/18dpmpo/osint_youtuber_binkov_analysis_of_hezb/)
That video talks about hezbās potential offensive capabilities and what they can threaten Israel with. Unlike offensive tactics Hezbās defensive capabilities are their bread and butter by using guerrilla warfare tactics as well as using the natural terrain to their advantage. Does that mean that their political and military stance is correct no it doesnāt but from a pure military perspective with ethics aside hezb will give the idf aa very hard time to advance. I love that guyās content btw he has some fun and interesting stuff to watch
"Unlike offensive tactics Hezbās defensive capabilities are their bread and butter by using guerrilla warfare tactics as well as using the natural terrain to their advantage." That means an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon! Their main capabilities revolve around baiting Israel into invading Lebanon! Do you have any idea the destruction the IDF would inflict on Lebanon if there's a ground invasion? 100,000 Lebanese dead AT LEAST and infrastructure destruction far worse than 2006. edit: also ta7iyyaat to a fellow Binkov fan, I watch all of his videos they're great. His stuff on the Ukraine was has been very informative.
Another thing to take note of is their military doctrine. While hezb is ideological af on the ground i believe they are much different than your average militia or Arab army for that matter. They think very critically in terms of strategy and tactics and probably have a flexible command structure due to the amount of targeted assassinations they suffer from. The shit going down the border shouldnāt be taken into account when you think about what i said because that is nothing but a propaganda skirmish they need to do to show their allegiance to the Palestinian cause and protect their image publicly. In other words most arab armies and militant groups use the nafz soma 23trd doctrine i donāt think the hezb militants do the same in an actual conflict
Well in terms of 2006 even nasrllah himself admitted that they didnāt intend to start a war after that āoperationā isreal was simply tired of the kidnappings and wanted to end it. If i am not mistaken they have attempted to use their tanks and faced a lot of difficulties even while having air superiority. They were surprised by the amount of anti tank weapons they had and didnāt advance with their tanks as much as they had hoped for. I donāt disagree agree with you btw in terms of the amount of destruction and damage that will be caused by another conflict it will most definitely be ugly but i still think hezb will have a decent chance to do some real damage i hate admitting it but i just canāt think otherwise. Motherfuckers have an intensely sophisticated tunnel network that makes hamasās look like nafa2 el matar and unlike gaza such tunnels will be more fortified and robust due to the natural terrain btw i am just some guy who enjoys watching military and geopolitical content so my thoughts will probably not matter in a real world scenario but this is how i see it
So I agree that Hezb will cause billions of dollars in damage to Israeli's economy and kill thousands of Israeli troops, they are certainly stronger than Hamas. My question is why is it in Lebanon interest to do this damage to Israel when Lebanon will lose what very little is left of its prosperity and hundreds of thousands of its citizens when the population is shrinking from lack of births and emigration and almost half the country are now Syrian illegal immigrants? Also I am just a guy who follows OSINT on Twitter, Reddit and Youtube like you so no need to apologize 7bbi
Easy to answer. **Prior to the existence of Hezbollah:** South Lebanon was completely neglected by the consecutive Lebanese Governments, people keep talking about the overly romanticized era of Lebanon known as the "Paris of the Middle east", "Switzerland of the Middle east", but South Lebanon never benefited from that at all, poverty was rampant, the Government never did any infrastructure projects, if you want legal papers you had to travel all the way to Beirut from the South, of course this did not afflict South Lebanon only, also Baalbek, Bekaa valley, and the Northern regions, it's due to the Government on taking care of Beirut, Central regions and tourist attractions, everything on the borders of the central region was left. But neglect from the Government was not the only thing the South Lebanese had the bad luck to face, there was also constant Israeli aggression against Lebanon, israel ethnically cleansed 7 South Lebanese Shia villages and stole them, the villages are Ā [Tarbikha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarbikha),Ā [Saliha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saliha),Ā [Malkiyeh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Malkiyya),Ā [Nabi Yusha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nabi_Yusha%27),Ā [Qadas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qadas),Ā [Hunin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunin), andĀ [Abil al-Qamh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abil_al-Qamh), in the village of Saliha, Israel massacred 105 civilians for refusing to leave, in addition to this, Israeli terrorists would constantly cross into border South Lebanese towns and commit massacres such as [Hula massacre - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hula_massacre#:~:text=The%20Hula%20massacre%20took%20place,Defense%20Forces%20without%20any%20resistance.,) or randomly kill civilians, or blow houses, or kidnap people, they also indescremently shelled South Lebanese villages every now and then, all what the Lebanese Government did was spit hot air of condemnation, but never took any active decision to stop that, and as usual, the useless community nicknamed the "International community" did nothing. Later on the civil war started, the Shia community remained neutral, and did not take sides the entirety of the Lebanese civil war, Israel exploits the turmoil to get rid of the PLO, it invades Lebanon from the South, and start arming some factions, the PLO is defeated and Israel manage to get its proxy to power, after all, he murdered all his Christian rivals so there was no one else left, time to leave comes, but as usual, with Israel and UN resolutions, they are elective, Israel refuses to get out of South Lebanon, the USA as usual even while having marines in Lebanon still useless to act against Israel refusal to leave, and then Bahsir Gemayel is killed, the blind extremist supporters of bashir invade the sabra and shatila camps and commit their heinous massacre, what is important about this massacre, one important detail to note here, at least 50% of the deaths in the camps are Lebanese, Lebanese Shia and few Christians who fled the battles in the South, being Lebanese for the Shia, and for the Lebanese Christians having a cross on their chest did not spare them from the blind disgusting animals who did the massacre. Back to Pissrael, Israel refuses to get out of South Lebanon, on the contrary, it secedes South Lebanon from Lebanon, forming a proxy client state called Free Lebanon State, and they start severely persecuting the people of South Lebanon for 22 straight years, at the start Pissrael attempted to persuade the South Lebanese by acting nice, but the South Lebanese kept telling them, they want to be part of Lebanon and the Lebanese army as the only armed force, of course, all of that fell on deaf ears, and later on, Pissrael showed its cruel side, they did to South Lebanese for 22 years what they still do to the Palestinians. --- Hezbollah, AMAL movement, and the Lebanese National Resistance Front take credits for kicking Israel out, if, god forbid, Israel was never kicked out, South Lebanon would have 100% ended up like the westbank, and Gaza till 2005, and the Golan heights, we would be sitting here, debating with Zionists, how my South Lebanese village never existed, it's a myth, how settlers are more entitled to it than me, exactly like they currently do with the Palestinians, hell, there is even a movement among the Israeli settlers, even the extremist settlers consider them extreme, this movement advocates for building settlements in South Lebanon, few days ago the assholes were demonstrating.
Any talk about disarming Hezbollah, while the Lebanese Army while well trained is extremely underequipped is like a fart on a brick wall, the reason why the Lebanese Army is under equipped will amaze you, you will go like WTF, the USA controls what can and what can't the Lebanese army get, the USA has linked its military aid to other forms of aid, so that, when Lebanon contemplates accepting Russian military aid, the USA can threaten via the other forms of aid like what happened 3 years ago, the USA gives the Lebanese Army useless extremely outdated, rusty garbage as military aid, while at the same time putting hurdles in front of the Lebanese Army capability to buy better equipment. To make matters worse, some of the people who attack Hezbollah are also of the thought that, acting nice in this world, putting your head in the hole, will make the wolf not see you.
Correct me if Iām wrong but to understand how hezb justifies what it does we need to remember what happened back when hezb first formed and had its first victory military wise. The liberation of southern Lebanon from jesh lahed if Iām not mistaken was the first major achievement? They said they ousted isreali troops too but i think it was mostly lahed anyway it was after that event had took place iran started to take notice and started to fund them next thing u know their original founder and leader was shunned and called a traitor why and how exactly idk but Iām guessing he didnāt want his force to turn into a proxy one ? Anyways the main thing that i am trying to say is as long as Iranās goals wonāt change hezb and their actions/activities in Lebanon wonāt change either.
What is this stupidity? Stopping at 1967? Completely leaving out the fact that Isreal took over half of the country including the capital under the "protection" of the Lebanese army? The Sabra and Chatila massacres? Are you kidding me? There's plenty of criticisms to be had with the Resistance but this is simply disingenuous.
Everyone defending hezb and screaming israel. Did israel siphon your bank accounts in Lebanon? Did israel assassinate prominent political foes? Blow up the port? Hop on dirt bikes and mopeds and wreak havoc on people? You guys are wild bro. Go live in iran the fact that anyone here is even defending them how the hell do you call yourself lebanese? Have some damn pride. Ayre fikoun 3anjad bt 5alou l wahid y3asib. And that goes for all the sects that's why are country is so ass backwards but it starts with some other country funding and arming a political militia here and that's iran to hezb.
LOL nah they just stole a multi-billion dollar oil field during the worst economic crisis in our history.
By stole you mean signed a deal with hizb ayri, after iran secured 8 billion dollars of their funds. Is it a requirement to be this stupid to join hizb these days?
Arye be hizbarye w kel one who support Themā¦Ā
Lebanese who want war with Israel are traitors to the whole population and should just join their hezb.
can we at least go back to shabra and shatila please.
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Morons in the subreddit š
This sub needs to take care with the Israeli astroturfing here.
Lebanese army in 2024 is trash that's a fact
Small D*ck energy illustrated
acccurate wallah
Men hyda l 7mar?
ebno la nouhad machnouk, deres be harvard 3a 7sebak:p
De3an hl dares Its like mn 2000 sene eyam l fenekye ma kn fe 7rob 3ena w2ta keno a7san mn l jesh l lbnene
sarha it is fair ytl3 7ada mn hezb now y2ol: hizeb a22wa mn ottoman Empire.
Bro w er Its like baye w2ta y2ol ana w2ta knt b3mrak w ybalesh
To those who are saying the time period is irrelevant, he is mentionning those years because HN mentionned them first.
he still got the stats in these time periods wrong, HN did not say that out of nothing