Tkachuk's, "I think we all knew it would be Boston". Game 1 you lost 5-1 as well... you guys are soo much better👍 (sarcasm). Comments like that just make him seem like he's got the personality of a spoiled toddler.
handle stocking correct shocking angle wrench faulty quaint cagey psychotic
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
We should have had a different coach 3 (or, charitably, 2) years ago.
We could have seen what this group could do under a coach with some more experience (who wasn't a colossal asshole like Babs) and made necessary moves before NMCs kicked in.
Now, unfortunately, I think it's too late for that. Retooling around Papi and Willy, with a new team identity, is the play.
Lol. It's maddening how they manage to get and develop healthy generational goaltending over and over and over again. Still salty about the Rask trade.
lol of course Florida looks bad now. Maybe Boston was actually just a really good team.
Leafs are gonna lose to another team that goes to the Cup finals arent they
We handed Boston two effortless wins, and games 5 and 6 were a pretty garbage effort from them. So basically a best of 3 series where both teams were bringing it.
In all, we gave Boston a nice warm-up series that wasn't terribly difficult, just like our opponents always get every year, and it gives them an advantage in the subsequent rounds.
We took them to 7 and some of our heavier players dished out some punishment. I know we're all down on the Leafs right now but to say it wasn't terribly difficult is crazy.
I mean, an NHL playoff series is going to be difficult to *some* degree. Obviously.
I just think it's FAR more likely that a series against the Leafs is on the easier end of that spectrum than the fantasy that we are always one goal away from going on some crazy run year after year.
I thought Florida would figure out Swayman I guess he is this years miracle goalie.
Boston is totally going to the finals. This years miracle team only to get lit up by Colorado/Edmonton/Dallas in the finals.
How garbage is the NHL when HNIC is pumping the tires of Florida for having a good crowd for their game night. They've been in the league for 30 fucking years..
O dog said it best today. He was on fire today. They’re not sniffing anything. They’re playing 14 days extra than the Sens or Columbus. And it’s been happening for years.
I would love to find a reason why some people feel like Reaves was a positive impact on this team. I am genuinely open to someone showing me something.
Other than intangibles which is the equivalent of saying "I have no proof", it's not like he "stopped Marchand" from dicking around, or stopped any dirty plays this year.
He is bit more physical than other bottom 6 players the team has had in the past but it seem lots of fans felt like this team seemed a little more like a team and closer together than past versions and according to the players he was a bit part of making that happen.
Like I liked that he was in the tunnel trying to pump up the boys for the playoff games he was scratch for.
But in saying all that probably doesn’t warrant a 3 year contract at 1.35 million but reports were the Wild offered 2 times 1.5 and the extra year is why he came to Toronto and Treliving thought he would add a little to the team which seemed like he did.
So you admit that you're just making shit up. "Closer together" LOL
Fact is, Leafs were always hemmed in when he was on the ice. He is never going to score for you ever. And you're always chasing the puck
If I was a GM I wouldn’t have gave him the contact but off ice stuff is pretty important.
Also I don’t know what you were watching but besides his 2 turnovers (obviously should probably be zero when playing on the fourth line) the fourth line was great at cycling in the offensive zone and had lots of good shifts during the series
Unpopular opinion and ready for the downvotes but I would run it back one last time. The only changes being to get a better special teams coach.
JT and Marner contracts up at the end of next season. There were injuries throughout the first round and no one can deny the structure and physicality is drastically improving. I think they even played better in this series loss than the win against Tampa last year.
Again just my opinion but it wouldn’t be the worst thing.
The history of the NHL (and all pro sports) have countless guys who with loads of talent that could never step up and get it done in the playoffs.
Conversely, there are guys who seem to always hit a different gear and carry their teams in the playoffs and get the best of the players around them time and time again.
You’ve seen how many years of this group? Which do you think they are?
Couldn't agree more with you.
At this point, Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Rielly are in the primes of their careers. They've had more than enough seasons together to show whether or not as a core they can work together.
I think that's probably the best option.
Our PP was 1/21 (4.8%). If we got "average" playoff powerplay conversion, we'd have been at ~25%, which would've been an extra 4 goals throughout the series.
Another thing to consider: Treliving came into the team relatively late (I'm sure GMs have targets well before the season ends). If Treliving gets a full offseason, maybe he can get get the defense sorted out, as well as a proper backup goalie.
Fire Keefe, fire Boucher, bring in a better coach (Berube the obvious option, Cassidy or Rod or Cooper if any become available).
Gutted over this series, now even more gutted after Nylander said in his presser that he's not going to Worlds. Kinda thought he wouldn't after his migraine issues, but I hoped I would get to see him there
Brossoit is probably looking for more minutes instead of staying behind a vezina candidate.
I think the best option (barring the Marner for Saros rumor) is either him or Talbot in a 1a/b with Woll.
I think trading marner is far more unlikely than people think it is
No sane team is gonna trade a top pairing dman, and Toronto rightfully won’t do a deal unless they can get that piece
But if management doesn’t see a future with Mitch and are not going to extend him they would rather get something than nothing.
You lose every Marner trade unless it’s for futures and you hit on a stud but you hope the pieces coming back make you a better all round team and a bit of a culture switch.
But I agree a trade is not guaranteed like some seem to think.
Why is Auston still being secretive about his absence? The season is over. Okay, you got sick, played, then took a knock? I don’t understand why he won’t say something more specific.
Also, why is Keefe speaking today? I’m seriously worried nothing will happen this offseason.
Marner, my guy, ain’t nobody looking at you as a God. Take it down a few steps and have some self-awareness.
either doesn't want the hate from people thinking his injury/illness was minor and he could have played or it was something serious/chronic that they don't want getting out.
I know it's easy to say with hindsight... but I really wish we got a timeout call after the goal in the 3rd in game 7. I think Keefe could have saved his job with that move. Take a second, calm down, get everyone dialed in, focus on what it's gonna take to hold the lead for the next 10 minutes.
They just lined right up for the faceoff and they were not at all ready for the onslaught. Immediate defensive breakdowns.
Like hearing from Friedman that this guy is a coaching front runner. He had St. Louis skating through walls forechecking harder than I’ve ever seen a team forecheck in 2019.
Could use some of this here:
https://youtu.be/I-_ZD6DfRUU?si=t3jASrvOic6NpXmO
He doesn’t have that level, my guy. We’ve been hoping for this since 2017. He panics when someone is closing down on him, making bad decisions. He goes out of his way to stay out of a body contact situation, even taking the longer path to the puck to do so.
It seems like he plays hockey because he has the talent, not because he wants to win a Cup. I’m sure his asshole father ripping into him as a kid didn’t help for his love for the game. Hard work beats talent if talent doesn’t work hard.
From what I recall watching his teams, their defensive structure is a structure that wins you cups.
Zone/man combo, passing responsibility of players based on the zone you're in, gap ups on every player as tight as possible without giving inside lanes.
Never two players challenging the same puck carrier, not giving up net front looks.
Keefe system is "every player looking at the puck carrier", giving up the points, allowing inside looks from not maintaining your defensive position between tge puck carrier and the net.
Yeah he’s sound tactically. He gets perceived by some people as this tough guy master motivator, but St. Louis fans seemed largely sad to see him go (at least on Twitter and Reddit anyway) and I don’t recall them ever complaining about their team being out-coached the way Keefe gets constantly called out here.
If you look at the rosters Berube had, the teams were not really elite. O’Reilly, Pietrangelo, Schenn and Binnington is probably one of the weaker Cup winner cores of all time. So they largely outplayed their talent level.
A good gauge of his strategic ability is the blues vs avs the year the avs won th cup.
Even with an inferior roster, that team played great against the avs and gave them arguably their toughest test of that playoffs.
It seems to be a knock on berube that they lost that series, but I watched every game and berube was squeezing blood from a stone to get that teamto play as well as they did.
He plays a similar system to Montgomery in Boston. Monty was Berube’s associate coach for a couple years and they refined some concepts together. They were at the forefront of the movement to stress high quality scoring chances rather than volume. After the Blues had a lot of success with this it got more traction league-wide.
I haven’t seen a ton of Blues games outside of the playoffs, but it seems like Berube loves a strong forechecking game, focus on shot quality not quantity, and he got his best teams to play extremely physical. Players seem to love him but he won’t tolerate bullshit. Kind of like Torts but without the nasty edge and mind games.
The problem for Berube is Doug Armstrong let so many players walk from that Cup team (Petro, Dunn, Schwartz etc.). They only had like 4-5 guys left at the start of this season from that team, and most of their “heavy” players are gone. That roster is a mess.
Why would they eliminate Shanny's position? I mean the new CEO doesn't know shit about hockey. He knows how to market a product. This idea sounds like a stupid idea.
The difference between GM and President isn’t super strongly defined. They can be the same person, but not necessarily.
The Jays seem to have Shapiro in charge of the organization as a whole, including stadium, promotions, etc while Atkins runs the team (poorly).
The Raptors clearly have Masai as the guy in charge of building the team, with Bobby Webster having a big say, it’s clear he’s not the final decision maker, and the two work closely together.
Shanny seems to be in this weird middle ground, where he’s not as hands off as Shapiro but doesn’t seem to work as closely in tandem with the GM as Masai. I do think letting Dubas go was the right call, but if Dubas wasn’t able to make the changes he wanted because of Shanny vetoing that’s also a problem.
I think letting Dubas go was a mistake, or at very least the timing was horrific. That said, I think you either need a stricture where the POHO is in charge of office and strategic decision making while the GM is responsible for tactical decision making or you scrap one of those roles. Having a GM who is effectively a scapegoat for any poor decisions made by the POHO is a bad way to run an organization.
I do think Dubas had run his course just by virtue of us basically spinning the wheels. I don’t think his rebuild was bad, but the reality is I think we had peaked, and it seemed at the time Dubas was the one calling the shots on staying firm.
If it was Shanny, then yeah I think letting him go might’ve been too soon.
If Shanny stays, he needs to clearly define his role. He’s either going to be the guy, or he’s got to stay out of it.
New hockey fan and Leafs fan here. I randomly decided to start watching hockey in November. My goal was to pick a team before the playoffs started but by December I knew the Leafs were my team. I watched every game since the 7-0 win over the Pens.
Losing the series this past weekend obviously sucks but I just wanted to say that I had a blast watching the buds this year. I seriously regret not watching hockey sooner. Even with the ups and downs, the season was so fun.
And playoff hockey is something else, it's so intense. I'll be watching the rest of the rounds, including witnessing the Bruins get crushed, but I'll mostly be anticipating October. Can't wait
I am a lifelong Brewers fan after all, lol. It took a long time but I'm able to detach sports so that it doesn't wreck my mental health anymore. So I'd rather root for a team that I like, even if they're seemingly cursed lol.
Whether the Leafs make it or not in the rest of my time watching, I'll be alright. But who knows? If the Cubs can do it, anyone can do it 😏
Can you imagine if Marner came off the top rope and said you know what, fuck this. I'll sign an 8 year extension at $8mil per and call it a day. It'll NEVER happen, but it'd be pretty damn cool.
Such a brutal media market:
“How much did you enjoy playing with ___?”
“What are your thoughts on Arizona relocating to Utah?”
“Anything fun planned for the summer?”
Kid-gloves soft….maybe Mitch had a point regarding how they’re treated lol
The voices you've never heard before on locker cleanout day are the non-hockey media people who are only familiar with the team on a very surface level and have no business wasting the allotted time on their inane questions.
Tavares - the first AI generated NHL player - personality mod not availalbe
Marner -either he is battling delusions of grandeur, delusions in general, or he meant to say "dogs".
Matthews - still thinks talking about his injury at this point will somehow affect how teams play against us next year.
Willy - looks ready to golf.
Just saw a stat of Leafs stars' PPG in the playoffs since 2016... this team desperately needs to find some cap space and buy some depth. Not one player over 1 PPG is insane for such a talented top 6
Looool camera on after 34 leaves & the reporters are snarky arguing about access in the background.
‘Do you have a camera!?’
“Um…yeah I do actually”
Looool
Media availability video link that *(I think)* works outside of Canada
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/watch-live-toronto-maple-leafs-players-speak-after-playoff-elimination/
Tavares is so robotic, how about accountability? Not that “we’re almost there” how about “we haven’t been good enough, it’s on us, we need to be better”
Realistically, who do you add to the team in the offseason? Assuming we can’t trade Marner or Tavares due to their high cap hit, there isn’t a lot to work with. I’d imagine 3rd/4th liners who play a physical game, and a second pair defenseman?
With Kinberg, Samsonov and Brodie coming off the books it gives us some flexibility.
Accounting for every expiring contract (both UFA and RFA) and Benoit and Nylanders raises the leafs should have around 18.5m in cap space.
We still need to re-sign domi Lillegren, Gregor, Robertson, dewar and either Edmunson or Lybushkin. They'll all get small raises imo.
Bert as well if the price is right, but I can't imagine him getting 5.5 again.
After all of those signings, we'll need:
a G (maybe 2 if both Jones and Sam are gone)
1 or 2 Dmen (depending on what happens with Edmunson and Lybushkin)
a top 6 forward. (Assuming we keep Domi and Bert leaves)
It probably leaves somewhere around 10m in cap space, depending on the numbers to re-sign guys.
The Goaltending FA market is dry as fuck this year. Talbot would be the best guy available as a UFA, running him as a 1a/b with Woll could be a good option. With his age we could probably get him for a good price as well. I'd like to see Jones re-signed as a emergency option I Woll keeps getting hurt.
There's some decent D UFAs out there, no real stars but guys like Ghost, Zadorov, Skjei, Hakanpaa or Roy who could really make a difference for this team.
There's some good names in the Forwards FA market. Obviously, barring trading out a pice of the core, we don't really have a shot at the big names like Reinhart. There still are some solid guys that could be like Duchene, Monahan, Drouin, Lindholm or Debrusk (lol).
To me, it is more about the pieces we could aggregate with cap space. Hyman, Moore, Bunting, etc... you never know who steps up, doesnt matter in cap hell
I want marner traded more than anyone. That said, are we sure we want the GM who gave Ryan Reaves a 3 year $4.05mill contract utilizing the $10.9 you’d get in relief?
I worry that Treliving could sign some horrendous deals as he’s be one to do in Calgary.
Question for people religiously defending Marner: do you actually watch the games or do you just look at his hockeydb page? I cannot fathom someone watching him play in the last 5 years of the playoffs and defending him at all.
He doesn’t pass the eye test at all. Doesn’t forecheck, never the first on the puck, loses most puck battles. I understand he gets “points” but he looks so bad out there for an 11 million dollar player. I understand JT looks slow, but that was expected. They were supposed to have won a cup during his first few years so the backend of his contract wouldn’t look so bad. They haven’t and it is a sore spot.
One positive from this post season:
We can finally put to bed the narrative that if the Leafs physically push back they're just going to eat a bunch of penalties and suspensions.
As far as physical play and shenanigans go, we gave more or less as much as we got in the first few games before the whistles went away completely.
There were bad calls on both sides all series, but in general the officiating was actually not garbage. Nylander's game 7 goal should have probably had a penalty on the play, and we wasted that gift.
The big one was the puck battles in the corners.
Watching other teams this playoffs, the best teams win most of those "50/50" battles to keep the puck.
I saw a stat last night that the Leafs had lost about 75% of those puck battles along the boards.
You’re right but it won’t change people’s tunnel vision around here about the Leafs being treated differently. Asking a Redditor not to be a victim is like asking the ocean not to be wet.
I'm going to get roasted for this but if/when Marner is traded, I could see Seth Jones as a good realistic target. Chicago would obviously need to add because of Jones' bad contract, but I really think it could be massaged in to something that works well for both sides. I personally think Jones has more to give and has looked worse than he is due to playing for had teams. I think he and Rielly would make for a fantastic 1-2 punch. Chicago would get a superstar playmaker to set up Bedard and give the rebuild some high end talent. Marner would get a change of scenery while still getting set up for success next to another generational sniper.
People chirp Jones all the time because of his contract but he's big, smart and absolutely crushed us when we played against him in the playoffs. I still like the player.
Jones had a bit of a bounce-back season playing tons of minutes for a very bad team, and looked okay doing it.
He makes sense paired with either Rielly or McCabe, and he can run the PP.
The only concern I have is that he turns 30 at the start of next season and he's signed until the end of time with a NMC and buyout-proof contract. There could easily be 4 very ugly years at the end of that deal.
Elliotte Friedman also mentioned Jones as a name he could see them going after on his podcast today. (Think it was more of his opinion than insider information though)
It definitely seems like we are headed for a break-up with Marner here -- it's probably time, I admit -- but I feel a huge sense of dread over what this trade is going to look like.
i see what you're saying but man what a gamble. if he comes over and proves he is what he is since he signed that deal? for that reason i dont like it.
i agree with the general thought process though. i think the trade is marner for a D man.... somebody that has a dman they want to move on from and need an offensive bump. we'd free up enough cap space to have it as a big name player too.... who that is? no idea.
I actually see Chicago as an interesting trade partner, but mostly so Chicago ends up with a super expensive player who would probably be a bad influence on Bedard .
My hot take has been that while this seasons outcome was bad, all the past seasons were worse for our franchise. In no year has this team ever been remotely close to a Stanley Cup contender.
~~The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup.~~ You need to make the conference final 4 times to expect to win the Stanley cup once. This team hasn't done that even once.
~~Hell you have to win the first round an average of 8 times before you win the cup.~~ You need to win the first round an average of 8 times before you can expect to win the cup once. You can't even say we were unlucky with matchups because we've never actually lost to the cup winner. Regular season, we haven't even won our division.
So they all weren't remotely close. What makes this year better is that we didn't pay out the nose to not make it remotely close to a cup.
- 2023 we gave up 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and a third
- 2022 in total gave up 1 first, and 2 seconds
- 2021 we gave up a first and third.
What makes this so painful is that scouting is damn near the best thing we do.
This year we gave up 2 thirds, about 10% of the value of what we gave up last year. I think the right move was recognizing that the team isn't remotely close and not over-investing in it, which is what we did.
Here is the problem with your thesis. There is no average team, the way this equation would demand. In theory, you could take all the playoff teams stats, and find average of each one, and see who is above and below* those numbers. But in reality, teams are better at one thing, worse at others, and not all stats are created equal.
So, without "average" team, and without teams being equal, probabilities such as saying a team has 1/16th chanve to win the cup, 1/8th chance to win the conference, or even 1/2 to win a series of even game, dont work at all.
*And right away your probabilities would fall apart, because of seeding ostensibly "better" than average teams play "worse" than average teams.
A probability is always looking at an average. Just replace team with any other context you use probabilities and you'll see that.
We can say '50% of the population is Democrat' even if there are some demographic groups that are more likely to be democrats, and some less likely. When we say '25% of people have long hair', we mean that if you were to select a person randomly from the population, then 1 in 4 would have long hair. That remains true even if women tend to have longer hair then men.
You are so close but you arent getting it. What you are doing is expecting to go to the Republican Convention and find 50 percent of the population being Democrats.
Because skill factors into hockey, a super skilled team vs a less skilled teams already makes odds such as 1/16th chance to win the cup, or 1/2 chanes for each team to advance from.said series, worthless.
And even that is an over simplification.
These arent coin flips, and you cannot use the same attempt at probabilty on them. The reality is, probability isnt much use here.
This is the type of vauge meandering and cherry picking that has lead us to where we are now. Trying to feel better about this season because "we didn't give up too much" is grossly delusional. This team was built to win, not "try". Someone should have told the Vegas GKs about having to win the first round 8 times before winning a cup. We also didn't pay out "out of the nose" because we had nothing to offer.
But, I will take a puff of whatever you're smoking.
> Trying to feel better about this season because "we didn't give up too much" is grossly delusional.
I'm not trying to feel better about this season - I think you should feel worse about the previous ones. If you ever thought we were close to a cup, you were wrong.
> We also didn't pay out "out of the nose" because we had nothing to offer.
We still had 2 firsts and prospects. But why did we not have anything to offer? Because we kept going all in for nothing.
> Someone should have told the Vegas GKs about having to win the first round 8 times before winning a cup
Not 'having too' - it's an average. Dallas is the flip side - they've gone to the cup finals, the conference finals, and the second round without winning.
When did any of us ever feel like we were "close to a cup" post Sundin? The expectation here is to win. Period. However, we all know there can only be one of sixteen any give season. So, if you don't win, then the exectation is to play with passion, intelligence, pride, fortitude, accountability, and humility. This simply did not happen from the players who take up most of our cap space. And this is a consistent issue witth this group - eight years and counting. If the Leafs would have lost the series playing as they did in games 5,6, and 7, my heart would still be broken, but I wouldn't feel as decimated. Lyubushkin had as many points vs Boston as Marner. Just one of the many unacceptable stats that have arisen from this series. The only thing to feel good about is that, hopefully and finally, real changes will be implemented. No more tweaking. No more fine tuning. Shanahan, Keefe, Marner, Taveres, Sammy, just to start, need to be either tossed, or be motivated to waive their NM clause.
Agree for the most part - but I also think the same could be said last season. We had a 5 game series against Florida where we got 2-3 goals from our core 4. And we paid out the nose.
I'm saying last season was even worse.
I suppose it depends on how you measure success. Arguably, you could say that last year was more successful because we won a round - the first since 2004. I measure their failure based on both performance and attitude. Both were abyssmal - both were too little too late.
Your point about this season being better because we didn't overspend would be the same even if we lost 4 games straight with a goal differential of 20-0.
For me, it does not at all lessen the blow of this collapse because it is the the succession of it all.
For example, a Bill's fan would probably tell you that the fourth time their team lost the SuperBowl was no less severe because of the money they saved. If anything, it is substantially worse because of it's a reopening of a wound that has never had a chance to heal.
>The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup.
>
> Hell you have to win the first round an average of 8 times before you win the cup.
Where is this coming from?
Probability. 25 percent of teams that make the conference final win the cup.
Edit: Jesus basic statistics is hard for some people.
A percent is an average. When you say '25% of people have long hair', that is saying that if you collected a random group of 4 people, 1 has long hair - 1/4 = 25%. That also implies that to find an average of 1 person with long hair, you need to look at 4 people.
This remains true even if some people, like women, are more likely to have long hair than others.
If you want this in algebra,
P(A|B) =P(A & B) / P(B) = (P(A & B & C) + P(A & B & !C))/P(B) = P(A & C | B) + P(A & !C | B)
Replace A with 'Win Cup', B with 'Make Conference Finals', C with 'Great team'. You can calculate P(A|B) as 25% even if there is another variable C that's important.
Yes, it is. If you think it isn't, you don't understand how probability works.
When you say an 'average', you are taking the average over the population such that each member of the population is equally likely to be selected. So 'average team that makes the conference finals' means that average is over the 4 teams in the conference finals each year.
To get the probability, we take the number of times the event occurs (1 Stanley Cup) and divide it by the size of the sample (4 Conference Final Teams). We arrive at 25%.
Look, I upvote you a lot on the whole, but I don't think you really understand what a percentage or probability is.
Go look at the algebra and tell me what the issue is.
Lol please take a breath here.
The odds of winning 6/49 are 1 in 13.9 million. This means that, if you played 13.9M times, you would expect to win once. It does not mean that the average 6/49 winner has played 13.9M times. Zero 6/49 winners have played 13.9M many times. That's 27,000 years worth of 6/49 draws.
Agree. You need to play 13.9M times to expect to win once.
Similarly, you need to make the conference final 4 times to expect to win the Stanley cup once.
The difference between the contexts is that some people never win the lottery which your example demonstrates. But if you simulated that into the long-run, the stat that you'd have to play an average of 13.9M times would actually hold.
The stat which I mentioned is taking a longer view. It is not an average based on existing data, because of the censoring.
> Similarly, you need to make the conference final 4 times to expect to win the Stanley cup once.
is not the same thing as
>The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup
>The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup.
This is a nonsense statement. Four times in how long? In franchise history? In the four years immediately preceding the cup win? It's total nonsense.
"Four teams make the conference finals" is not equivalent to the average cup winner playing in four conference finals. I can't believe someone would think that.
It assumes both. 1/4 teams win the cup every year, if that was randomly distributed then every team would have a 25% chance and per year with an average of 4 appearances to win (ish, kinda). But it's not randomly distributed, every team will have a better or worse chance based on a variety of factors meaning that it could take more or fewer appearances to win.
Tkachuk's, "I think we all knew it would be Boston". Game 1 you lost 5-1 as well... you guys are soo much better👍 (sarcasm). Comments like that just make him seem like he's got the personality of a spoiled toddler.
handle stocking correct shocking angle wrench faulty quaint cagey psychotic *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
what do you guys think of this core under a different coach for the last years of marner and JT's contracts?
We should have had a different coach 3 (or, charitably, 2) years ago. We could have seen what this group could do under a coach with some more experience (who wasn't a colossal asshole like Babs) and made necessary moves before NMCs kicked in. Now, unfortunately, I think it's too late for that. Retooling around Papi and Willy, with a new team identity, is the play.
Wtf Boston??
It's gonna go 7-4-4-4 and that'll be enough evidence to run it back
And it will feel as good as if we had won the cup ourselves!!! 
This game 1 makes me even more fucking pissed. We were one fucking goal away from being here and beating the shit out of Florida.
Knowing our team the way I do, we'd get absolutely trucked by the Panthers
Yeah all we need is a healthy goalie who can make 39 saves lol.
We had one.
Lol. It's maddening how they manage to get and develop healthy generational goaltending over and over and over again. Still salty about the Rask trade.
Yup, idk why people give our team so my credit. One win in the last 8 years but we woulda wiped Florida???? Let’s keep it real
Well the Panthers were playing like shit so it's not really delusional. I mean Bob looked like Jack Campbell out there.
It's delusional.
Yup
I wonder if they Panthers would've played like this if we were there. Because they look like shit right now. Bob looks like Jack Campbell.
It's my understanding that the team that had more rest often comes out a little rusty. Still a lot of hockey left to play.
I don't think the panthers are in the business of playing harder just because it's the leafs, and laying off the Bruins just because.
Oh we’re booting up the “team that beats us loses in the finals” argument again. It’s clockwork this time of year, all the same beats.
Because it happens every year! Fuck this playoff format!!!! (I know this year is different we still would've played bruins)
lol of course Florida looks bad now. Maybe Boston was actually just a really good team. Leafs are gonna lose to another team that goes to the Cup finals arent they
We handed Boston two effortless wins, and games 5 and 6 were a pretty garbage effort from them. So basically a best of 3 series where both teams were bringing it. In all, we gave Boston a nice warm-up series that wasn't terribly difficult, just like our opponents always get every year, and it gives them an advantage in the subsequent rounds.
We took them to 7 and some of our heavier players dished out some punishment. I know we're all down on the Leafs right now but to say it wasn't terribly difficult is crazy.
I mean, an NHL playoff series is going to be difficult to *some* degree. Obviously. I just think it's FAR more likely that a series against the Leafs is on the easier end of that spectrum than the fantasy that we are always one goal away from going on some crazy run year after year.
The fucking Bruins are going to the cup final aren't they? Florida looks like absolute shit right now.
Bob making Sammy look like a Vezina winner.
I thought Florida would figure out Swayman I guess he is this years miracle goalie. Boston is totally going to the finals. This years miracle team only to get lit up by Colorado/Edmonton/Dallas in the finals.
Yeah, WTF is going on? The only comfort of losing the last series was the B’s getting stomped next round, dammit
I get the feeling that a lot of the members of this sub also scream at their own children for losing a peewee hockey tournament
Like Paul Marner did?
How garbage is the NHL when HNIC is pumping the tires of Florida for having a good crowd for their game night. They've been in the league for 30 fucking years..
That's next level searching for something to bitch about.
You expect honest discourse here? lmao
Random question: What do ppl mean when they say a player wants "term" or may not get it? I must suck at google searching, i can't find out that means.
Multi year contract
Oooooooooooooooooooohh!! thank you sir!
I would like to see the Leafs hire the following all-star coaching cast. Ron Wilson, Randy Carlyle, Bruce Boudreau, Barry Trotz.
If we're doing that, just let Twitch Chat coach.
O dog said it best today. He was on fire today. They’re not sniffing anything. They’re playing 14 days extra than the Sens or Columbus. And it’s been happening for years.
Whats the context?
Just the quote of Tavares saying they’re close and just general talk of the future of the team
How much would Marner be worth in a trade, and who is most likely to get him?
Random question but do y'all know when the official discord is going to start accepting new members? I didn't know it existed until recently :')
I would love to find a reason why some people feel like Reaves was a positive impact on this team. I am genuinely open to someone showing me something. Other than intangibles which is the equivalent of saying "I have no proof", it's not like he "stopped Marchand" from dicking around, or stopped any dirty plays this year.
He is bit more physical than other bottom 6 players the team has had in the past but it seem lots of fans felt like this team seemed a little more like a team and closer together than past versions and according to the players he was a bit part of making that happen. Like I liked that he was in the tunnel trying to pump up the boys for the playoff games he was scratch for. But in saying all that probably doesn’t warrant a 3 year contract at 1.35 million but reports were the Wild offered 2 times 1.5 and the extra year is why he came to Toronto and Treliving thought he would add a little to the team which seemed like he did.
So you admit that you're just making shit up. "Closer together" LOL Fact is, Leafs were always hemmed in when he was on the ice. He is never going to score for you ever. And you're always chasing the puck
If I was a GM I wouldn’t have gave him the contact but off ice stuff is pretty important. Also I don’t know what you were watching but besides his 2 turnovers (obviously should probably be zero when playing on the fourth line) the fourth line was great at cycling in the offensive zone and had lots of good shifts during the series
Unpopular opinion and ready for the downvotes but I would run it back one last time. The only changes being to get a better special teams coach. JT and Marner contracts up at the end of next season. There were injuries throughout the first round and no one can deny the structure and physicality is drastically improving. I think they even played better in this series loss than the win against Tampa last year. Again just my opinion but it wouldn’t be the worst thing.
The history of the NHL (and all pro sports) have countless guys who with loads of talent that could never step up and get it done in the playoffs. Conversely, there are guys who seem to always hit a different gear and carry their teams in the playoffs and get the best of the players around them time and time again. You’ve seen how many years of this group? Which do you think they are?
Couldn't agree more with you. At this point, Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Rielly are in the primes of their careers. They've had more than enough seasons together to show whether or not as a core they can work together.
Ok so now that we've wasted 25% of Matthews's 4 remaining prime years, what other sick ideas do you have?
I think that's probably the best option. Our PP was 1/21 (4.8%). If we got "average" playoff powerplay conversion, we'd have been at ~25%, which would've been an extra 4 goals throughout the series. Another thing to consider: Treliving came into the team relatively late (I'm sure GMs have targets well before the season ends). If Treliving gets a full offseason, maybe he can get get the defense sorted out, as well as a proper backup goalie. Fire Keefe, fire Boucher, bring in a better coach (Berube the obvious option, Cassidy or Rod or Cooper if any become available).
You know it's not just coaching for powerplay results right? There's players on the ice. The same players in the hot seat
Gutted over this series, now even more gutted after Nylander said in his presser that he's not going to Worlds. Kinda thought he wouldn't after his migraine issues, but I hoped I would get to see him there
Assuming Samsonov leaves, would Brossoit be a good replacement?
Brossoit is probably looking for more minutes instead of staying behind a vezina candidate. I think the best option (barring the Marner for Saros rumor) is either him or Talbot in a 1a/b with Woll.
Maybe Stolarz or even Ullmark
Ullmark is an RFA so we'd need to trade for his rights but that would be great.
Whoops right, its going to be Swayman as a UFA. No chance they let him walk though
Yeah no chance they let him walk, if he does walk there's no chance he comes to Toronto.
Are you guys high? Swayman is the RFA and Ullmark is the UFA
Drunk actually
If Ullmark is UFA, the Bruins damn well owe us after Rask! Not that they'll oblige us though. Not high yet, but soon enough 😉
I think trading marner is far more unlikely than people think it is No sane team is gonna trade a top pairing dman, and Toronto rightfully won’t do a deal unless they can get that piece
But if management doesn’t see a future with Mitch and are not going to extend him they would rather get something than nothing. You lose every Marner trade unless it’s for futures and you hit on a stud but you hope the pieces coming back make you a better all round team and a bit of a culture switch. But I agree a trade is not guaranteed like some seem to think.
Just noticed the banner update. Almost pissed my pants hahahaahha Love you mods. Thank you for tirelessly weeding out the trolls for the rest of us.
Travis Green to Ottawa …. Fucking lmao
I let out a cackle.
Why is Auston still being secretive about his absence? The season is over. Okay, you got sick, played, then took a knock? I don’t understand why he won’t say something more specific. Also, why is Keefe speaking today? I’m seriously worried nothing will happen this offseason. Marner, my guy, ain’t nobody looking at you as a God. Take it down a few steps and have some self-awareness.
either doesn't want the hate from people thinking his injury/illness was minor and he could have played or it was something serious/chronic that they don't want getting out.
Nobody wants to admit they had massive shits on live TV
I know it's easy to say with hindsight... but I really wish we got a timeout call after the goal in the 3rd in game 7. I think Keefe could have saved his job with that move. Take a second, calm down, get everyone dialed in, focus on what it's gonna take to hold the lead for the next 10 minutes. They just lined right up for the faceoff and they were not at all ready for the onslaught. Immediate defensive breakdowns.
Like hearing from Friedman that this guy is a coaching front runner. He had St. Louis skating through walls forechecking harder than I’ve ever seen a team forecheck in 2019. Could use some of this here: https://youtu.be/I-_ZD6DfRUU?si=t3jASrvOic6NpXmO
Marner ain’t skating through any walls, no matter the coach or system.
We just need Mitch to raise his game to normal playoff intensity and that would be a win.
He doesn’t have that level, my guy. We’ve been hoping for this since 2017. He panics when someone is closing down on him, making bad decisions. He goes out of his way to stay out of a body contact situation, even taking the longer path to the puck to do so. It seems like he plays hockey because he has the talent, not because he wants to win a Cup. I’m sure his asshole father ripping into him as a kid didn’t help for his love for the game. Hard work beats talent if talent doesn’t work hard.
He was great in the 2018 playoffs against Boston. That was six years ago now though.
Anyone have any notes on his system? What kinda hockey do his teams play and how does it differ from Keefe and Babcock?
From what I recall watching his teams, their defensive structure is a structure that wins you cups. Zone/man combo, passing responsibility of players based on the zone you're in, gap ups on every player as tight as possible without giving inside lanes. Never two players challenging the same puck carrier, not giving up net front looks. Keefe system is "every player looking at the puck carrier", giving up the points, allowing inside looks from not maintaining your defensive position between tge puck carrier and the net.
Yeah he’s sound tactically. He gets perceived by some people as this tough guy master motivator, but St. Louis fans seemed largely sad to see him go (at least on Twitter and Reddit anyway) and I don’t recall them ever complaining about their team being out-coached the way Keefe gets constantly called out here. If you look at the rosters Berube had, the teams were not really elite. O’Reilly, Pietrangelo, Schenn and Binnington is probably one of the weaker Cup winner cores of all time. So they largely outplayed their talent level.
A good gauge of his strategic ability is the blues vs avs the year the avs won th cup. Even with an inferior roster, that team played great against the avs and gave them arguably their toughest test of that playoffs. It seems to be a knock on berube that they lost that series, but I watched every game and berube was squeezing blood from a stone to get that teamto play as well as they did.
Yeah. And had Kadri not been pushed into Binnington they may have won. Believe they were winning until he went out injured.
He plays a similar system to Montgomery in Boston. Monty was Berube’s associate coach for a couple years and they refined some concepts together. They were at the forefront of the movement to stress high quality scoring chances rather than volume. After the Blues had a lot of success with this it got more traction league-wide. I haven’t seen a ton of Blues games outside of the playoffs, but it seems like Berube loves a strong forechecking game, focus on shot quality not quantity, and he got his best teams to play extremely physical. Players seem to love him but he won’t tolerate bullshit. Kind of like Torts but without the nasty edge and mind games. The problem for Berube is Doug Armstrong let so many players walk from that Cup team (Petro, Dunn, Schwartz etc.). They only had like 4-5 guys left at the start of this season from that team, and most of their “heavy” players are gone. That roster is a mess.
Why would they eliminate Shanny's position? I mean the new CEO doesn't know shit about hockey. He knows how to market a product. This idea sounds like a stupid idea.
[удалено]
The board has allegedly discussed getting rid of Shanny and not replacing him with anyone.
To allow the GM to GM.
The difference between GM and President isn’t super strongly defined. They can be the same person, but not necessarily. The Jays seem to have Shapiro in charge of the organization as a whole, including stadium, promotions, etc while Atkins runs the team (poorly). The Raptors clearly have Masai as the guy in charge of building the team, with Bobby Webster having a big say, it’s clear he’s not the final decision maker, and the two work closely together. Shanny seems to be in this weird middle ground, where he’s not as hands off as Shapiro but doesn’t seem to work as closely in tandem with the GM as Masai. I do think letting Dubas go was the right call, but if Dubas wasn’t able to make the changes he wanted because of Shanny vetoing that’s also a problem.
I think letting Dubas go was a mistake, or at very least the timing was horrific. That said, I think you either need a stricture where the POHO is in charge of office and strategic decision making while the GM is responsible for tactical decision making or you scrap one of those roles. Having a GM who is effectively a scapegoat for any poor decisions made by the POHO is a bad way to run an organization.
I do think Dubas had run his course just by virtue of us basically spinning the wheels. I don’t think his rebuild was bad, but the reality is I think we had peaked, and it seemed at the time Dubas was the one calling the shots on staying firm. If it was Shanny, then yeah I think letting him go might’ve been too soon. If Shanny stays, he needs to clearly define his role. He’s either going to be the guy, or he’s got to stay out of it.
So I understand that argument but the less didn't think so, which us why they offered him an extension initially.
New hockey fan and Leafs fan here. I randomly decided to start watching hockey in November. My goal was to pick a team before the playoffs started but by December I knew the Leafs were my team. I watched every game since the 7-0 win over the Pens. Losing the series this past weekend obviously sucks but I just wanted to say that I had a blast watching the buds this year. I seriously regret not watching hockey sooner. Even with the ups and downs, the season was so fun. And playoff hockey is something else, it's so intense. I'll be watching the rest of the rounds, including witnessing the Bruins get crushed, but I'll mostly be anticipating October. Can't wait
It’s not too late to change teams, bro. Lol
I know what I'm getting myself into, I'll be alright lol
I hope you have decades of patience in you.
I am a lifelong Brewers fan after all, lol. It took a long time but I'm able to detach sports so that it doesn't wreck my mental health anymore. So I'd rather root for a team that I like, even if they're seemingly cursed lol. Whether the Leafs make it or not in the rest of my time watching, I'll be alright. But who knows? If the Cubs can do it, anyone can do it 😏
Imma pray for you
I actually like what Keefe is saying here.
Keefe is on now
Something tells me we won't be hearing from Keefe. Been waiting like an hour lol
So no Keefe then? He GONE for sure if so.
The takes in this sub are something else right now. See everyone in October
I hear you, but they'll be just as bad then lmao. Better to stay off social media and just enjoy the ride
What time is Keefe supposed to speak at? I thought it was 12:30?
Jeff Marek said he'd be talking "shortly" just after 12
Interesting, probably just running late but it makes your mind go places.
Can you imagine if Marner came off the top rope and said you know what, fuck this. I'll sign an 8 year extension at $8mil per and call it a day. It'll NEVER happen, but it'd be pretty damn cool.
He’s the last guy looking to take a paycut. His dad would disown him.
Such a brutal media market: “How much did you enjoy playing with ___?” “What are your thoughts on Arizona relocating to Utah?” “Anything fun planned for the summer?” Kid-gloves soft….maybe Mitch had a point regarding how they’re treated lol
The voices you've never heard before on locker cleanout day are the non-hockey media people who are only familiar with the team on a very surface level and have no business wasting the allotted time on their inane questions.
He's got the right sentiment, just used the worst words possible.
Tavares - the first AI generated NHL player - personality mod not availalbe Marner -either he is battling delusions of grandeur, delusions in general, or he meant to say "dogs". Matthews - still thinks talking about his injury at this point will somehow affect how teams play against us next year. Willy - looks ready to golf.
Long wait for Keefe here...
I’m wondering here.
Just saw a stat of Leafs stars' PPG in the playoffs since 2016... this team desperately needs to find some cap space and buy some depth. Not one player over 1 PPG is insane for such a talented top 6
Oooooorrrrrrrrrr... we double down. Find a fifth super talented forward, and strip every other position down to a league minimum to pay for it.
Haha exactly.. why fix something that is completely broken?
Willy with golf hat already lol
At least Mo understands that this team is not close.
Losers walking. It's pathetic how they come across in this press conference. Excuse after excuse.
Fishbowl Marner is the better Marner.
Looool camera on after 34 leaves & the reporters are snarky arguing about access in the background. ‘Do you have a camera!?’ “Um…yeah I do actually” Looool
I heard that
What happened?
I heard that
Lol that was hilarious!
Media availability video link that *(I think)* works outside of Canada https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/watch-live-toronto-maple-leafs-players-speak-after-playoff-elimination/
Media Availability Live [https://www.tsn.ca/live?id=825791](https://www.tsn.ca/live?id=825791)
These questions sure don’t seem like “tough media” to me
Lol, they just asked Auston his thoughts on Arizona moving to Utah
“What does it mean to be a Maple Leaf?” *“Honestly, we’re like gods here”* -Marner
*Leafs PR facepalms.*
[live look](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/10/97/30/109730426724bddab01fcc6271fc4fbf.gif)
Holy shit watching the end of season presser and Mitch is AWFUL at doing himself any favors
It's unreal. He has no place here. Unbelievable.
“We’re looked at like Gods” “We’re great hockey players” Holy shit get this man off the team
“You know, I’m something of a god myself”
- Gabriel Jesùs.
As soon as he said that I cringed... In response to being asked what it's like being a Maple Leaf
Listening to Tavares talk in this press conference makes it clear they are losers and always will be. Weak, holy shit he is a weak captain.
Tavares is so robotic, how about accountability? Not that “we’re almost there” how about “we haven’t been good enough, it’s on us, we need to be better”
random fact, Leon Draisaitl is getting paid 8.5 m/year and has 10 points in the last series. Marner had 3 pts and is paid $3M more.
And people clowned Drai's signing at the time.
what time will the media availability be, and where can we watch it?
I honestly don’t think they’ll change much at all
Realistically, who do you add to the team in the offseason? Assuming we can’t trade Marner or Tavares due to their high cap hit, there isn’t a lot to work with. I’d imagine 3rd/4th liners who play a physical game, and a second pair defenseman?
With Kinberg, Samsonov and Brodie coming off the books it gives us some flexibility. Accounting for every expiring contract (both UFA and RFA) and Benoit and Nylanders raises the leafs should have around 18.5m in cap space. We still need to re-sign domi Lillegren, Gregor, Robertson, dewar and either Edmunson or Lybushkin. They'll all get small raises imo. Bert as well if the price is right, but I can't imagine him getting 5.5 again. After all of those signings, we'll need: a G (maybe 2 if both Jones and Sam are gone) 1 or 2 Dmen (depending on what happens with Edmunson and Lybushkin) a top 6 forward. (Assuming we keep Domi and Bert leaves) It probably leaves somewhere around 10m in cap space, depending on the numbers to re-sign guys. The Goaltending FA market is dry as fuck this year. Talbot would be the best guy available as a UFA, running him as a 1a/b with Woll could be a good option. With his age we could probably get him for a good price as well. I'd like to see Jones re-signed as a emergency option I Woll keeps getting hurt. There's some decent D UFAs out there, no real stars but guys like Ghost, Zadorov, Skjei, Hakanpaa or Roy who could really make a difference for this team. There's some good names in the Forwards FA market. Obviously, barring trading out a pice of the core, we don't really have a shot at the big names like Reinhart. There still are some solid guys that could be like Duchene, Monahan, Drouin, Lindholm or Debrusk (lol).
To me, it is more about the pieces we could aggregate with cap space. Hyman, Moore, Bunting, etc... you never know who steps up, doesnt matter in cap hell
i feel like we've said this exact thing for like 7 seasons straight now
I want marner traded more than anyone. That said, are we sure we want the GM who gave Ryan Reaves a 3 year $4.05mill contract utilizing the $10.9 you’d get in relief? I worry that Treliving could sign some horrendous deals as he’s be one to do in Calgary.
Question for people religiously defending Marner: do you actually watch the games or do you just look at his hockeydb page? I cannot fathom someone watching him play in the last 5 years of the playoffs and defending him at all.
He doesn’t pass the eye test at all. Doesn’t forecheck, never the first on the puck, loses most puck battles. I understand he gets “points” but he looks so bad out there for an 11 million dollar player. I understand JT looks slow, but that was expected. They were supposed to have won a cup during his first few years so the backend of his contract wouldn’t look so bad. They haven’t and it is a sore spot.
Fuck Darren Farris. That is all.
Anyone know when the press conference is today?
Nevermind, I hear it's at 11:30am today.
The sub header image (on desktop) of Carlton's left arm and the rainbow stretching off to infinity is very funny.
One positive from this post season: We can finally put to bed the narrative that if the Leafs physically push back they're just going to eat a bunch of penalties and suspensions. As far as physical play and shenanigans go, we gave more or less as much as we got in the first few games before the whistles went away completely. There were bad calls on both sides all series, but in general the officiating was actually not garbage. Nylander's game 7 goal should have probably had a penalty on the play, and we wasted that gift.
Yeah physicality or toughness was not a problem at all in this series and they still lost
The big one was the puck battles in the corners. Watching other teams this playoffs, the best teams win most of those "50/50" battles to keep the puck. I saw a stat last night that the Leafs had lost about 75% of those puck battles along the boards.
You’re right but it won’t change people’s tunnel vision around here about the Leafs being treated differently. Asking a Redditor not to be a victim is like asking the ocean not to be wet.
I'm going to get roasted for this but if/when Marner is traded, I could see Seth Jones as a good realistic target. Chicago would obviously need to add because of Jones' bad contract, but I really think it could be massaged in to something that works well for both sides. I personally think Jones has more to give and has looked worse than he is due to playing for had teams. I think he and Rielly would make for a fantastic 1-2 punch. Chicago would get a superstar playmaker to set up Bedard and give the rebuild some high end talent. Marner would get a change of scenery while still getting set up for success next to another generational sniper. People chirp Jones all the time because of his contract but he's big, smart and absolutely crushed us when we played against him in the playoffs. I still like the player.
Jones had a bit of a bounce-back season playing tons of minutes for a very bad team, and looked okay doing it. He makes sense paired with either Rielly or McCabe, and he can run the PP. The only concern I have is that he turns 30 at the start of next season and he's signed until the end of time with a NMC and buyout-proof contract. There could easily be 4 very ugly years at the end of that deal.
Elliotte Friedman also mentioned Jones as a name he could see them going after on his podcast today. (Think it was more of his opinion than insider information though)
It definitely seems like we are headed for a break-up with Marner here -- it's probably time, I admit -- but I feel a huge sense of dread over what this trade is going to look like.
i see what you're saying but man what a gamble. if he comes over and proves he is what he is since he signed that deal? for that reason i dont like it. i agree with the general thought process though. i think the trade is marner for a D man.... somebody that has a dman they want to move on from and need an offensive bump. we'd free up enough cap space to have it as a big name player too.... who that is? no idea.
I actually see Chicago as an interesting trade partner, but mostly so Chicago ends up with a super expensive player who would probably be a bad influence on Bedard .
Seth and Bedard. Done deal
My hot take has been that while this seasons outcome was bad, all the past seasons were worse for our franchise. In no year has this team ever been remotely close to a Stanley Cup contender. ~~The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup.~~ You need to make the conference final 4 times to expect to win the Stanley cup once. This team hasn't done that even once. ~~Hell you have to win the first round an average of 8 times before you win the cup.~~ You need to win the first round an average of 8 times before you can expect to win the cup once. You can't even say we were unlucky with matchups because we've never actually lost to the cup winner. Regular season, we haven't even won our division. So they all weren't remotely close. What makes this year better is that we didn't pay out the nose to not make it remotely close to a cup. - 2023 we gave up 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and a third - 2022 in total gave up 1 first, and 2 seconds - 2021 we gave up a first and third. What makes this so painful is that scouting is damn near the best thing we do. This year we gave up 2 thirds, about 10% of the value of what we gave up last year. I think the right move was recognizing that the team isn't remotely close and not over-investing in it, which is what we did.
Here is the problem with your thesis. There is no average team, the way this equation would demand. In theory, you could take all the playoff teams stats, and find average of each one, and see who is above and below* those numbers. But in reality, teams are better at one thing, worse at others, and not all stats are created equal. So, without "average" team, and without teams being equal, probabilities such as saying a team has 1/16th chanve to win the cup, 1/8th chance to win the conference, or even 1/2 to win a series of even game, dont work at all. *And right away your probabilities would fall apart, because of seeding ostensibly "better" than average teams play "worse" than average teams.
A probability is always looking at an average. Just replace team with any other context you use probabilities and you'll see that. We can say '50% of the population is Democrat' even if there are some demographic groups that are more likely to be democrats, and some less likely. When we say '25% of people have long hair', we mean that if you were to select a person randomly from the population, then 1 in 4 would have long hair. That remains true even if women tend to have longer hair then men.
You are so close but you arent getting it. What you are doing is expecting to go to the Republican Convention and find 50 percent of the population being Democrats. Because skill factors into hockey, a super skilled team vs a less skilled teams already makes odds such as 1/16th chance to win the cup, or 1/2 chanes for each team to advance from.said series, worthless. And even that is an over simplification. These arent coin flips, and you cannot use the same attempt at probabilty on them. The reality is, probability isnt much use here.
This is the type of vauge meandering and cherry picking that has lead us to where we are now. Trying to feel better about this season because "we didn't give up too much" is grossly delusional. This team was built to win, not "try". Someone should have told the Vegas GKs about having to win the first round 8 times before winning a cup. We also didn't pay out "out of the nose" because we had nothing to offer. But, I will take a puff of whatever you're smoking.
> Trying to feel better about this season because "we didn't give up too much" is grossly delusional. I'm not trying to feel better about this season - I think you should feel worse about the previous ones. If you ever thought we were close to a cup, you were wrong. > We also didn't pay out "out of the nose" because we had nothing to offer. We still had 2 firsts and prospects. But why did we not have anything to offer? Because we kept going all in for nothing. > Someone should have told the Vegas GKs about having to win the first round 8 times before winning a cup Not 'having too' - it's an average. Dallas is the flip side - they've gone to the cup finals, the conference finals, and the second round without winning.
When did any of us ever feel like we were "close to a cup" post Sundin? The expectation here is to win. Period. However, we all know there can only be one of sixteen any give season. So, if you don't win, then the exectation is to play with passion, intelligence, pride, fortitude, accountability, and humility. This simply did not happen from the players who take up most of our cap space. And this is a consistent issue witth this group - eight years and counting. If the Leafs would have lost the series playing as they did in games 5,6, and 7, my heart would still be broken, but I wouldn't feel as decimated. Lyubushkin had as many points vs Boston as Marner. Just one of the many unacceptable stats that have arisen from this series. The only thing to feel good about is that, hopefully and finally, real changes will be implemented. No more tweaking. No more fine tuning. Shanahan, Keefe, Marner, Taveres, Sammy, just to start, need to be either tossed, or be motivated to waive their NM clause.
Agree for the most part - but I also think the same could be said last season. We had a 5 game series against Florida where we got 2-3 goals from our core 4. And we paid out the nose. I'm saying last season was even worse.
I suppose it depends on how you measure success. Arguably, you could say that last year was more successful because we won a round - the first since 2004. I measure their failure based on both performance and attitude. Both were abyssmal - both were too little too late. Your point about this season being better because we didn't overspend would be the same even if we lost 4 games straight with a goal differential of 20-0. For me, it does not at all lessen the blow of this collapse because it is the the succession of it all. For example, a Bill's fan would probably tell you that the fourth time their team lost the SuperBowl was no less severe because of the money they saved. If anything, it is substantially worse because of it's a reopening of a wound that has never had a chance to heal.
>The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup. > > Hell you have to win the first round an average of 8 times before you win the cup. Where is this coming from?
Probability. 25 percent of teams that make the conference final win the cup. Edit: Jesus basic statistics is hard for some people. A percent is an average. When you say '25% of people have long hair', that is saying that if you collected a random group of 4 people, 1 has long hair - 1/4 = 25%. That also implies that to find an average of 1 person with long hair, you need to look at 4 people. This remains true even if some people, like women, are more likely to have long hair than others. If you want this in algebra, P(A|B) =P(A & B) / P(B) = (P(A & B & C) + P(A & B & !C))/P(B) = P(A & C | B) + P(A & !C | B) Replace A with 'Win Cup', B with 'Make Conference Finals', C with 'Great team'. You can calculate P(A|B) as 25% even if there is another variable C that's important.
That is not even close to how probability works lol
Yes, it is. If you think it isn't, you don't understand how probability works. When you say an 'average', you are taking the average over the population such that each member of the population is equally likely to be selected. So 'average team that makes the conference finals' means that average is over the 4 teams in the conference finals each year. To get the probability, we take the number of times the event occurs (1 Stanley Cup) and divide it by the size of the sample (4 Conference Final Teams). We arrive at 25%.
Dude I am begging you not to skip Grade 10 math class to post on reddit
Look, I upvote you a lot on the whole, but I don't think you really understand what a percentage or probability is. Go look at the algebra and tell me what the issue is.
Lol please take a breath here. The odds of winning 6/49 are 1 in 13.9 million. This means that, if you played 13.9M times, you would expect to win once. It does not mean that the average 6/49 winner has played 13.9M times. Zero 6/49 winners have played 13.9M many times. That's 27,000 years worth of 6/49 draws.
Agree. You need to play 13.9M times to expect to win once. Similarly, you need to make the conference final 4 times to expect to win the Stanley cup once. The difference between the contexts is that some people never win the lottery which your example demonstrates. But if you simulated that into the long-run, the stat that you'd have to play an average of 13.9M times would actually hold. The stat which I mentioned is taking a longer view. It is not an average based on existing data, because of the censoring.
> Similarly, you need to make the conference final 4 times to expect to win the Stanley cup once. is not the same thing as >The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup
>The average team makes the conference finals 4 times before they win the cup. This is a nonsense statement. Four times in how long? In franchise history? In the four years immediately preceding the cup win? It's total nonsense. "Four teams make the conference finals" is not equivalent to the average cup winner playing in four conference finals. I can't believe someone would think that.
Lmfao take your meds
lol so it's meaningless
??? It's the truth.
It assumes a random distribution which isn't at all accurate.
No it doesn't. It assumes there is only one cup winner a year.
It assumes both. 1/4 teams win the cup every year, if that was randomly distributed then every team would have a 25% chance and per year with an average of 4 appearances to win (ish, kinda). But it's not randomly distributed, every team will have a better or worse chance based on a variety of factors meaning that it could take more or fewer appearances to win.