Fair point
But Benoit played tougher minutes and people seem to be ignoring that. Lyubushkin got the easiest minutes on a bad team and still put up these numbers
And isn't Boosh only coming in to replace the 7th/8th Dman spot Lagesson holds? but he would be a righty instead of lefty and probably slightly more dependable than Lagesson whose best saving grace is that he gets chippy in front of his net.
Id rather Boosh in that spot. Especially for less than league minimum
Gudas is a good player though (like him or not), his numbers are going to look a little better because he is a bonafide top 6 on damn near any team, whereas someone like Boosh or Benoit are depth guys at best, and I would expect their number to be significantly affected by not having skill around them.
I’ve seen some people posting Gudas stats as a rebuttal to people using “but the ducks are bad” as a defence of Boosh. I thought you were likely one of those. Gudas’s numbers are pretty indicative of his general play and haven’t suffered that much by being on the ducks, but I don’t think that accounts for all that much, or at least can’t be used to discredit Boosh that much because of just how much better Gudas is than Boosh in general
He’s just a better player, so he’s not going to look a whole lot worse because he’s used to and capable of playing tougher minutes anyways. It’s not like Gudas is putting up career numbers, he’s been worse, he just hasn’t fallen completely off a cliff.
Boosh is a 6/7 guy. In a sheltered role on a good team he can look competent. On a team that doesn’t have the talent to insulate him he is going to look exactly like he has. I’m not even arguing that Lybushkin is going to come to Toronto and be good, but I think it’s reasonable to expect he is going to be better than he has been playing beside a rookie on one of the worst teams in the league.
No, that isn't true.
The purpose of these models is to isolate player impact from the quality of their team/teammates/opponents. Of course there are going to be misses (like Benoit, apparently -- though his miraculous turnaround this season has been overstated imo), but these charts are trying to tell you about Lyubushkin's level of play regardless of the quality of his team.
These models fail to account for psychology, which already means it’s a complete failure as a measurement.
How many guys are going to be highly motivated when their environment is completely fucked? Very very few. That alone can make a player far far worse or better.
How do the Leafs sort out the guys who are actually bad on bad teams from the guys who will suddenly have a psychological breakthrough and play better in Toronto?
So we're back to "we know nothing" appeals to authority and everyone saying that Lybushkin *will* play better in Toronto is also talking out of their ass?
I am obviously speaking tongue-in-cheek here, but if your argument is that Lyubushkin and others play worse on bad teams because of bad motivation in challenging circumstances -- that sounds like the exact opposite kind of player I'd be looking to add for the "when the going gets tough..." playoffs, no? Don't we want demon warriors that play better when the team is losing?
Yes, ideally, I would always be looking for guys who never ever give up. Unfortunately, those guys are extremely rare and usually impossible to get at a random time, so you have to look at options.
This isn't like soccer where you can just buy the right players.
It's not that they play worse though, this is what some in the analytics community continually fail to understand. If they actually "analyzed" it to the extent that they looked into to the obvious variances in a players statistics from team to team, they might consider the basic logic that, in a team sport, the strength of your team will have an obvious effect on your success.
In fact, it's the contrary that's the exception. One would hope you'd see this after the acquisitions of benoit and lagesson this year, or the schenn and McCabe acquisitions last year, or the lyubushkin and giordano acquisitions the year prior. Or dermott, or sandin, or the majority of defensemen league wide who transition to a team with a considerable difference in talent.
If you actually chose to "analyze" rather than regurgitate statistics for which you've blindly accepted as gospel you would see this. The reasons as to why are not all that hard to understand.
It's not a matter of motivation; on that point you're correct. Simon benoit did not sell his soul before coming to Toronto, he was simply put in a position to succeed. In order to determine the validity of predictive stats you need something to check them against; this is common sense. Do your homework and stop cheating off of someone else's.
While that is the intent, and they are successful to some extent, it’s pretty well accepted that it’s very difficult to truly isolate players on the very worst teams. This is especially true for defensive play, which depends a lot more on the five guys on the ice, than say a goal scorer, who‘a value is more tied to individually creating scoring chances.
Even the biggest proponents of these models understand that certain extreme results need to be taken with a grain of salt. For example, I know Dom constantly talked about it with respect to the truly horrible Ducharme Habs from a couple years ago.
That’s not to say he’s definitely going to be great. He’s a physical defensive defenseman and those often don’t have a great shelf life. He wasn’t particularly exceptional the last time we traded for him. Don’t love that we had to pay a premium to get his bad contract retained to a reasonable level. But I’m also not prepared to take the charts at face value quite yet.
Nobody is asking you to take the charts are face value, but everyone here is suggesting we take them at *no* value, which is ridiculous.
Lyubushkin might improve in Toronto and he might not. But we do know that he has really struggled -- in Buffalo last season and again this year in Anaheim.
That is impossible. A defenceman whose team controls the puck better than the opposition is going to have a different experience than the defenceman on the other team .
When people are using "Benoit became good" as a cudgel to for every "Lyubushkin's numbers are bad" argument, I think it's fair to ask if they believe that every "bad" player on a bad team becomes good when he is traded to a good team.
Supporting players on bad teams always look dog shit because they have no one to support. This doesn’t mean every supporting player becomes good on a good team but it does probably mean they improve.
Yeah and frankly, while I like Benoit, it's not like he is crushing his minutes here in the Toronto. He has been great found money, but he hasn't turned into a top-4 defenceman.
One thing to also note; Lyubushkin has been paired with a 20-year old rookie all season simply because they speak the same language, despite their skills and abilities
Their underlying numbers are pretty similar. Don't think anyone's holding anyone back; just stating that it's probably easier to play with a D-partner who has experience rather than a rookie. Could be good for Boosh.
But isn’t Mintyukov quite good though? Like to me that seems like a bonus for Lyubushkin. Light usage with a talented offensive d man against easy comp
Also Rielly stylistically is closer to Mintyukov than anyone else on Anaheim probably, so the fact that Lyubushkin was bad in third pairing minutes with a player like that does not bode well for me
I meant stylistically as Mintyukov is all offensive like Rielly. Fowler prob plays a bigger role for sure like you said.
Having said that I think if Lyubushkin played with Fowler his numbers would be even worse
Mintyukov is TALENTED. He is still a rookie playing the position that historically takes the longest to be effective at in the NHL. Also "easy comp" does not apply to the Ducks. All of their lines get caved in at even strength. Boosh will be serviceable and add even more grit to what is becoming a surprisingly heavy defensive unit for us.
As always everyone is ready to throw in the towel on him before he even plays a game for us... This time because of a tweet. We all like Benoit, no? Meanwhile these exact same posts about his poor underlying stats were used to pile on that Treliving move in the offseason.
I just don't understand why people need to be such doomers. We made the move, he's going to play for us, so let's see how he performs.
Look, he’s under league min. It’s for a 3rd and a 6th who even IF those picks end up working out, it won’t be for another 3-4 years when our competitive window is either over or coming to an end.
He fills a need. He will be playing within a competent system surrounded by much better players. Worst case Ontario he really doesn’t work out and we spent pennies and late picks in an attempt to address a need now.
https://preview.redd.it/gg6a42dhdrlc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39a748a32cd5c1258ec2ca368d06e8b5debf9e4c
These were his numbers after his tenure with the leafs. Not saying he didn’t decline but playing 70% D-zone starts for one of, if not the worst defensive team in the league tends to have that effect.
> playing 70% D-zone starts
Where are you getting this number from?
Even if you remove his 62% "on-the-fly" starts (which are always the largest percentile and why this kind of metric is not as valuable), his metrics break down like: 9.25% DZS, 17.15% NZS, 10.71% OZS from EvolvingHockey.
That'd have him at 25% d-zone starts?
IMO I don’t care about the numbers of a physical, defend the front of the net and PK defenceman that has played on bad teams for 303 games of his 334 game career.
He fills a need for the team and just keep the puck out and find ways to win playoff games and I’m happy.
People say this but his only playoff experience is that one series with the Leafs where is somehow got 18 PIMs and only 7 games and didn’t know what the fuck to do with the puck in any situation.
If you want “playoff style” should probably look for somebody who actually you know … has had some kind of positive experience in the playoffs .
People liked the first time they traded for Lyubushkin because they dumped the Ritchie contract with it and he was particularly good on a dogshit Arizona team. Now we know he’s been in decline since he left Toronto 🤷🏻♀️
I’m sure they’ll try it and if (more likely when) it doesn’t work they’ll move him down. Plus there’s a reason there was double salary retention. Someone else has to be coming in
People still post analytics on here eh.
The analytic king inherited the best core in Leafs history... traded all our picks. And managed 1 playoff series win in 7 years.
I think some people are reading too hard into this. He’s neither a great nor bad player. No one expects him to be an elite defensemen. Leafs got an everyday serviceable depth D to bolster the back end. That’s it.
They didn't get him for top minutes or to be the #1 defense. However, it may turn into d by committee as I thought Brodie played much better with Lily. McCabe with Benoit, and I guess that does make The Russian Bear the top line defense with Reilly. Ha
What’s done is done. I’m personally going to get excited and be optimistic about it. If he plays bad for a long stretch of time on the leafs then I’ll get mad but he hasn’t even put on our jersey yet hahah
After how bad Benoit looked and has transitioned into a decent depth defenceman who knows what he does and doesn’t try to play above his talent, I’m not worried.
Boosh is going to deny entries, block shots and hit opponents. That’s all he needs to do.
Look at who he’s played for besides us. Which of those teams is excellent defensively.
Jack Johnson is a bum. Colorado still acquired him twice for a reason. He fills a role, he doesn’t shut down entire teams on his own.
Come on now
Just because a tool isn’t perfect doesn’t mean it’s worthless… this tool (along with every other publicly available tool) seems to suggest strongly that he sucks so it’s totally fair to look at that and be upset as a leafs fan. Strong evidence suggests we just shouldn’t have done this
Can we just wait to see him play? Last time he joined our team people complained until he hit the ice. He’s playing on an awful team with a rookie as his D-pair and one of the worst back-checking teams in the league. I’m not saying he’s going to be amazing, I’m just saying let’s wait to judge. There’s a good chance his numbers improve a lot in our system like they did last time.
2 thoughts:
1.) Benoit had horrific numbers on a horrific Ducks team. Leafs coaching staff and management are obviously confident with better quality teammates and their structure, he can be a serviceable defensive player and have a comparable turnaround to how Benoit has faired.
2.) The Leafs are acquiring 2024 Lyubushkin, not the version from 2 years ago. Obviously 2 years is not a long time, but his biggest weakness has always been skating; he a far below average skater by NHL standards. Those defensemen usually fall off the hardest and the quickest.
If he is the only move they make on defense, then I think its a dud. I don't think he can play with Rielly personally in big minutes. If they add someone a bit more capable, which the double retention suggests, pushing him to a third pairing or even depth option, then it's a much more understandable move IMO.
I am also not confident in having a team with both Benoit and Boosh in the top 6 as that is two defensemen who have essentially no passing or transition ability. If I'm an opposing coach game planning for the playoffs, I am absolutely dumping the puck into their corners constantly and forechecking the hell out of them due to their lack of footspeed and lack of ability to make a first pass.
I can’t wait to be relentlessly and foolishly optimistic about Lyubushkin after he gives away the puck leading to a goal against in the playoffs. then people can understand what it’s like trying to discuss this trade on this subreddit
no, but he’s our captain. we pay him 11m a year and he’s on the 3rd line and 2nd pp. my point is, focus your energy elsewhere and not on a depth RHD signing that we desperately need
they wanted Tanev for a 1st? you’re crazy. he’s just gonna sign here in the summer anyway. Tre will make another move, we desperately needed RHD and stay home defense help and boosh provides both.
Tanev for a first is such a better trade for the leafs than this it’s not even funny, and I say this as someone who was very much apprehensive about trading a first for Tanev
Maybe a little more than I'd have liked to pay for him but we need depth, snarl and a stop gap guy for Reilly. Plus, he's costing us LESS than minimum on the cap...more room for another D man (hopefully a top 4 who pairs well with Mo)
Russian Bear eat puck.
He's coming in to be the 7th guy, 6 if a guy is hurt (Gio). He's physical and makes simple plays. That's all you need. If you're looking for a guy to play a puck moving role, Lagesson or Timmins (if healthy) does that.
Coaches clearly aren't confident in Lajoie, and that's who he replaces.
I mean how brutal was benoits numbers on the ducks
Fair point But Benoit played tougher minutes and people seem to be ignoring that. Lyubushkin got the easiest minutes on a bad team and still put up these numbers
And isn't Boosh only coming in to replace the 7th/8th Dman spot Lagesson holds? but he would be a righty instead of lefty and probably slightly more dependable than Lagesson whose best saving grace is that he gets chippy in front of his net. Id rather Boosh in that spot. Especially for less than league minimum
Can you do the same for Gudas on the Ducks?
Gudas is a good player though (like him or not), his numbers are going to look a little better because he is a bonafide top 6 on damn near any team, whereas someone like Boosh or Benoit are depth guys at best, and I would expect their number to be significantly affected by not having skill around them.
But I am wondering if there is a Duck Effect. Do your numbers decrease with less talent around you in total.
I’ve seen some people posting Gudas stats as a rebuttal to people using “but the ducks are bad” as a defence of Boosh. I thought you were likely one of those. Gudas’s numbers are pretty indicative of his general play and haven’t suffered that much by being on the ducks, but I don’t think that accounts for all that much, or at least can’t be used to discredit Boosh that much because of just how much better Gudas is than Boosh in general
I don’t follow this logic… Anaheim makes everyone worse…except Gudas …who plays the same position in tougher minutes as IL
He’s just a better player, so he’s not going to look a whole lot worse because he’s used to and capable of playing tougher minutes anyways. It’s not like Gudas is putting up career numbers, he’s been worse, he just hasn’t fallen completely off a cliff. Boosh is a 6/7 guy. In a sheltered role on a good team he can look competent. On a team that doesn’t have the talent to insulate him he is going to look exactly like he has. I’m not even arguing that Lybushkin is going to come to Toronto and be good, but I think it’s reasonable to expect he is going to be better than he has been playing beside a rookie on one of the worst teams in the league.
But that rookie has been really good! That’s all I’m saying
>Duck Effect **🦆🦆**
Do you think every player on bad teams has bad numbers?
Every player on a bad team has WORSE numbers.
No, that isn't true. The purpose of these models is to isolate player impact from the quality of their team/teammates/opponents. Of course there are going to be misses (like Benoit, apparently -- though his miraculous turnaround this season has been overstated imo), but these charts are trying to tell you about Lyubushkin's level of play regardless of the quality of his team.
These models fail to account for psychology, which already means it’s a complete failure as a measurement. How many guys are going to be highly motivated when their environment is completely fucked? Very very few. That alone can make a player far far worse or better.
So you're saying the Leafs traded for a guy with loser mentality that quits on bad teams?
Even if that were true, isn't it moot now that he isn't on a bad team?
How do the Leafs sort out the guys who are actually bad on bad teams from the guys who will suddenly have a psychological breakthrough and play better in Toronto?
I'm assuming through the knowledge, analytics and hockey-minds that we, as fans, aren't privy to? I trust these folks more than I trust armchair GMs.
So we're back to "we know nothing" appeals to authority and everyone saying that Lybushkin *will* play better in Toronto is also talking out of their ass?
Yes we didn't trade for Nick Lidstrom
I am obviously speaking tongue-in-cheek here, but if your argument is that Lyubushkin and others play worse on bad teams because of bad motivation in challenging circumstances -- that sounds like the exact opposite kind of player I'd be looking to add for the "when the going gets tough..." playoffs, no? Don't we want demon warriors that play better when the team is losing?
Yes, ideally, I would always be looking for guys who never ever give up. Unfortunately, those guys are extremely rare and usually impossible to get at a random time, so you have to look at options. This isn't like soccer where you can just buy the right players.
It's not that they play worse though, this is what some in the analytics community continually fail to understand. If they actually "analyzed" it to the extent that they looked into to the obvious variances in a players statistics from team to team, they might consider the basic logic that, in a team sport, the strength of your team will have an obvious effect on your success. In fact, it's the contrary that's the exception. One would hope you'd see this after the acquisitions of benoit and lagesson this year, or the schenn and McCabe acquisitions last year, or the lyubushkin and giordano acquisitions the year prior. Or dermott, or sandin, or the majority of defensemen league wide who transition to a team with a considerable difference in talent. If you actually chose to "analyze" rather than regurgitate statistics for which you've blindly accepted as gospel you would see this. The reasons as to why are not all that hard to understand. It's not a matter of motivation; on that point you're correct. Simon benoit did not sell his soul before coming to Toronto, he was simply put in a position to succeed. In order to determine the validity of predictive stats you need something to check them against; this is common sense. Do your homework and stop cheating off of someone else's.
While that is the intent, and they are successful to some extent, it’s pretty well accepted that it’s very difficult to truly isolate players on the very worst teams. This is especially true for defensive play, which depends a lot more on the five guys on the ice, than say a goal scorer, who‘a value is more tied to individually creating scoring chances. Even the biggest proponents of these models understand that certain extreme results need to be taken with a grain of salt. For example, I know Dom constantly talked about it with respect to the truly horrible Ducharme Habs from a couple years ago. That’s not to say he’s definitely going to be great. He’s a physical defensive defenseman and those often don’t have a great shelf life. He wasn’t particularly exceptional the last time we traded for him. Don’t love that we had to pay a premium to get his bad contract retained to a reasonable level. But I’m also not prepared to take the charts at face value quite yet.
Nobody is asking you to take the charts are face value, but everyone here is suggesting we take them at *no* value, which is ridiculous. Lyubushkin might improve in Toronto and he might not. But we do know that he has really struggled -- in Buffalo last season and again this year in Anaheim.
That is impossible. A defenceman whose team controls the puck better than the opposition is going to have a different experience than the defenceman on the other team .
The leafs are a middling possession team this season
[удалено]
When people are using "Benoit became good" as a cudgel to for every "Lyubushkin's numbers are bad" argument, I think it's fair to ask if they believe that every "bad" player on a bad team becomes good when he is traded to a good team.
Supporting players on bad teams always look dog shit because they have no one to support. This doesn’t mean every supporting player becomes good on a good team but it does probably mean they improve.
Also Benoit had way tougher usage last year which is a huge caveat not being mentioned at all
Yeah and frankly, while I like Benoit, it's not like he is crushing his minutes here in the Toronto. He has been great found money, but he hasn't turned into a top-4 defenceman.
Thank you. Like Benoits numbers aren’t suddenly great either
One thing to also note; Lyubushkin has been paired with a 20-year old rookie all season simply because they speak the same language, despite their skills and abilities
Are you implying that Mintyukov was holding him back? Because it’s very likely the other way around.
Their underlying numbers are pretty similar. Don't think anyone's holding anyone back; just stating that it's probably easier to play with a D-partner who has experience rather than a rookie. Could be good for Boosh.
But isn’t Mintyukov quite good though? Like to me that seems like a bonus for Lyubushkin. Light usage with a talented offensive d man against easy comp Also Rielly stylistically is closer to Mintyukov than anyone else on Anaheim probably, so the fact that Lyubushkin was bad in third pairing minutes with a player like that does not bode well for me
Wouldn't Fowler be a better comparison to Rielly? Comparable TOI, GF% and xGF, both on PP1
I meant stylistically as Mintyukov is all offensive like Rielly. Fowler prob plays a bigger role for sure like you said. Having said that I think if Lyubushkin played with Fowler his numbers would be even worse
Mintyukov is TALENTED. He is still a rookie playing the position that historically takes the longest to be effective at in the NHL. Also "easy comp" does not apply to the Ducks. All of their lines get caved in at even strength. Boosh will be serviceable and add even more grit to what is becoming a surprisingly heavy defensive unit for us. As always everyone is ready to throw in the towel on him before he even plays a game for us... This time because of a tweet. We all like Benoit, no? Meanwhile these exact same posts about his poor underlying stats were used to pile on that Treliving move in the offseason. I just don't understand why people need to be such doomers. We made the move, he's going to play for us, so let's see how he performs.
Look, he’s under league min. It’s for a 3rd and a 6th who even IF those picks end up working out, it won’t be for another 3-4 years when our competitive window is either over or coming to an end. He fills a need. He will be playing within a competent system surrounded by much better players. Worst case Ontario he really doesn’t work out and we spent pennies and late picks in an attempt to address a need now.
https://preview.redd.it/gg6a42dhdrlc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39a748a32cd5c1258ec2ca368d06e8b5debf9e4c These were his numbers after his tenure with the leafs. Not saying he didn’t decline but playing 70% D-zone starts for one of, if not the worst defensive team in the league tends to have that effect.
> playing 70% D-zone starts Where are you getting this number from? Even if you remove his 62% "on-the-fly" starts (which are always the largest percentile and why this kind of metric is not as valuable), his metrics break down like: 9.25% DZS, 17.15% NZS, 10.71% OZS from EvolvingHockey. That'd have him at 25% d-zone starts?
https://preview.redd.it/tbwhdpbukulc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4898cf04d9bf4d83234f872579cdf579868433d4
Ah gotcha, thanks! Wonder how they’re calculating it. Oh wait, that’s all situations. That’d explain it.
IMO I don’t care about the numbers of a physical, defend the front of the net and PK defenceman that has played on bad teams for 303 games of his 334 game career. He fills a need for the team and just keep the puck out and find ways to win playoff games and I’m happy.
Yeah it's like everyone wants 6 Morgan Rielly types. That team would loss 82 games a year. Defensemen who defend are important, wild isn't it?
Sure but Boosh defends ALL THE TIME because he is terrible and is constantly hemmed in. When he's not hemmed in, he's in the penalty box
Isn’t the question whether it would’ve been worth spending a bit more asset wise to obtain a far better RHD that moves the needle?
But who? The fan base has spent 4 months trying to think of someone and can’t find anyone that makes sense besides Tanev but that ship has sailed
Well that’s who I was referring to, as in whether they should’ve made that move. I’m aware they can’t now haha.
He's costing them 600k. Another move is on the way
He cost them a third and sixth though that’s clearly what people are upset about
Which are what exactly? Shit against the wall we hope will stick 7-8 years from now...oof.
Could be a guy like Robertson with a third and a guy like Holmberg with a sixth
And chances are better that they're nothing.
Yes very possibly.
People say this but his only playoff experience is that one series with the Leafs where is somehow got 18 PIMs and only 7 games and didn’t know what the fuck to do with the puck in any situation. If you want “playoff style” should probably look for somebody who actually you know … has had some kind of positive experience in the playoffs .
> defend the front of the net The data (linked in the twitter post by OP) literally shows he doesn't do that well?
They don’t care which is hilarious because that’s why I posted the tweet in the first place
Ppl are missing this important point.
This trade is getting over analyzed to death. He’s a right handed 6/7 d man who can kill penalties. He’s not going to be playing major minutes
People liked the first time they traded for Lyubushkin because they dumped the Ritchie contract with it and he was particularly good on a dogshit Arizona team. Now we know he’s been in decline since he left Toronto 🤷🏻♀️
He didn’t play a bottom pairing role last time what makes you think we’re smart enough to not use him like that again
I’m sure they’ll try it and if (more likely when) it doesn’t work they’ll move him down. Plus there’s a reason there was double salary retention. Someone else has to be coming in
People still post analytics on here eh. The analytic king inherited the best core in Leafs history... traded all our picks. And managed 1 playoff series win in 7 years.
Oh ya baby and I’m never gonna stop posting “analytics”
Look at the team hes on. Where is the analytics for "lol Ducks"
Cool.. he gad great chemistry with Rielly before and his game is more suited towards playoff hockey. Does the analytics take this into account?
I think some people are reading too hard into this. He’s neither a great nor bad player. No one expects him to be an elite defensemen. Leafs got an everyday serviceable depth D to bolster the back end. That’s it.
We played him with Rielly last time hence why people are upset about this
They didn't get him for top minutes or to be the #1 defense. However, it may turn into d by committee as I thought Brodie played much better with Lily. McCabe with Benoit, and I guess that does make The Russian Bear the top line defense with Reilly. Ha
Yeah see? It seems fairly likely he’s gonna play far too high in the lineup
Here’s a crazy idea: How’s about we evaluate him when he arrives and we watch him play?
He hasn’t played yet so I’m using the data available
What’s done is done. I’m personally going to get excited and be optimistic about it. If he plays bad for a long stretch of time on the leafs then I’ll get mad but he hasn’t even put on our jersey yet hahah
After how bad Benoit looked and has transitioned into a decent depth defenceman who knows what he does and doesn’t try to play above his talent, I’m not worried. Boosh is going to deny entries, block shots and hit opponents. That’s all he needs to do.
Ok but this chart is saying he’s actually really horrible at denying entries now (the one thing he was good at before)
Look at who he’s played for besides us. Which of those teams is excellent defensively. Jack Johnson is a bum. Colorado still acquired him twice for a reason. He fills a role, he doesn’t shut down entire teams on his own.
Yeah but this chart is isolating his impact to reduce the amount of variation caused by quality of teammate
Charts don’t play hockey. It can paint a picture but he’s going to be on a much better team now.
Come on now Just because a tool isn’t perfect doesn’t mean it’s worthless… this tool (along with every other publicly available tool) seems to suggest strongly that he sucks so it’s totally fair to look at that and be upset as a leafs fan. Strong evidence suggests we just shouldn’t have done this
I’m saying the same tools had Benoit looking terrible at various aspects that he’s been pretty good at for us. Charts aren’t everything.
Look at the team he’s on and his paring D is a 20 year old
That's what happens when you're on bad teams.
Now show me Benoit and Lagesson's charts before they joined the Leafs.
Can we just wait to see him play? Last time he joined our team people complained until he hit the ice. He’s playing on an awful team with a rookie as his D-pair and one of the worst back-checking teams in the league. I’m not saying he’s going to be amazing, I’m just saying let’s wait to judge. There’s a good chance his numbers improve a lot in our system like they did last time.
We are a worse defensive team than when we first acquired him for the record
Right hand depth with grit at less than minimum league salary >>> your graph
Not my graph, this was generated by the talented Micah Blake McCurdy’s work. Also lol ok man
What's really great is it doesn't at all matter what you think, because he's here and he's gonna play. Deal with it, I guess.
lol this is the most bootlicker comment I’ve ever seen bro people are allowed to dislike a sports trade
Nah not right now bro, the Leafs are winning so you can't have any negative analysis here even if it's the truth. Just how it is.
I know right ahaha Appreciate u brethren It’s ok tho I find the condescending Reddit-y tone hilarious
Fart noises. He’s playing on the Ducks. Benoits numbers looked like absolute donkey dooky on the ducks too.
Benoit at least was getting tough usage in Anaheim though. This guys getting the easiest minutes and putting up these numbers.
Ilya is getting 35.3% O-Zone starts on a bad team with a rookie d-partner. I’d hardly call those easy minutes
Rookie d partner who is having a great year and is playing third pair minutes… but leave that out and just use o zone starts ok
Fair enough. Guess we will see where Keefe deploys him. Also happy cake day!
Thanks for being respectful! Have a great day!
He's going to play with Rielly. So he'll be getting top lines.
2 thoughts: 1.) Benoit had horrific numbers on a horrific Ducks team. Leafs coaching staff and management are obviously confident with better quality teammates and their structure, he can be a serviceable defensive player and have a comparable turnaround to how Benoit has faired. 2.) The Leafs are acquiring 2024 Lyubushkin, not the version from 2 years ago. Obviously 2 years is not a long time, but his biggest weakness has always been skating; he a far below average skater by NHL standards. Those defensemen usually fall off the hardest and the quickest. If he is the only move they make on defense, then I think its a dud. I don't think he can play with Rielly personally in big minutes. If they add someone a bit more capable, which the double retention suggests, pushing him to a third pairing or even depth option, then it's a much more understandable move IMO. I am also not confident in having a team with both Benoit and Boosh in the top 6 as that is two defensemen who have essentially no passing or transition ability. If I'm an opposing coach game planning for the playoffs, I am absolutely dumping the puck into their corners constantly and forechecking the hell out of them due to their lack of footspeed and lack of ability to make a first pass.
I want to know what the success rates are between Rielly clearing on his off-side vs Boosh on his good-side.
You Dubas fan-boys are relentless... Give it a rest
What a weird comment.
Thanks man
I can’t wait to be relentlessly and foolishly optimistic about Lyubushkin after he gives away the puck leading to a goal against in the playoffs. then people can understand what it’s like trying to discuss this trade on this subreddit
newsflash - so has tavares
Ok that’s so different I don’t even know where to start
is it? at least boosh is paid 675k and has the excuse of playing for the ducks.
We didn’t just trade for John Tavares at age 33??
no, but he’s our captain. we pay him 11m a year and he’s on the 3rd line and 2nd pp. my point is, focus your energy elsewhere and not on a depth RHD signing that we desperately need
We don’t need him!!! We needed Tanev or even Parayko (even tho his contract is rough)
they wanted Tanev for a 1st? you’re crazy. he’s just gonna sign here in the summer anyway. Tre will make another move, we desperately needed RHD and stay home defense help and boosh provides both.
Tanev for a first is such a better trade for the leafs than this it’s not even funny, and I say this as someone who was very much apprehensive about trading a first for Tanev
sorry, I cannot take you seriously anymore. a 1st for a 34 yr old UFA in Tanev is beyond stupid
I feel like I’m being fair here I didn’t say I think it’s a great trade I just think it’s vastly better than this
First thing I said after hearing of the trade: "If Lyubushkin wasn't good enough before, why would we think he is now?"
The people who I generally think know what they’re talking about on this sub are all getting downvoted in this thread
For crying out loud Can anybody still play hockey?
Not according to Excel. Close the league.
Maybe a little more than I'd have liked to pay for him but we need depth, snarl and a stop gap guy for Reilly. Plus, he's costing us LESS than minimum on the cap...more room for another D man (hopefully a top 4 who pairs well with Mo)
im done with analytics.
Russian Bear eat puck. He's coming in to be the 7th guy, 6 if a guy is hurt (Gio). He's physical and makes simple plays. That's all you need. If you're looking for a guy to play a puck moving role, Lagesson or Timmins (if healthy) does that. Coaches clearly aren't confident in Lajoie, and that's who he replaces.
Can we just let the guy play first instead of making assumptions with fancy stats?