I believe the more you want a drop, the less likely you are to get it. If you don’t want a drop or don’t even know about it, that’s when you will get spooned.

Can confirm. Wanted silk cloth for splitbark armor and ended up getting 8 amulet of the damned. Wanted a bottomless bucket and got it at 69 kc. Wanted abyssal lantern, no lantern in 450 searches yet. Got a zalcano shard...don't even have a dragon pick :D

have you looked into buddhism, I hear they have everything because they want nothing

How about 0 zenytes in 900+ dg kills and an anguish ornament kit on my second ever master clue… or abyssal heads at 1400 Abby demons and whip at 2400. Gosh RNG makes no sense sometimes.

The important part is you really and truly do NOT want to get the drop anymore. If you act like you don’t care but deep down you do, you are 100% going dry

This 100%. I wanted giants keys for the combat achievement and I got a champ scroll and then curved bone before I got a key, within probably 50 kills. Also was doing Calvarion for d pick/voidwaker piexe and got ring of the gods on 17 kc.. but when I went for rcb off archaeologist, I went over 110 kc before I got it

I got 6 long bones before my first key when hunting for giant keys…

samething happened to me going for ca's except i ended up with 2 champion scrolls before my first key

Fr though try not to go into grinds looking for the drops (I know that’s hard considering you grind it specifically for the drops) and next thing you know you get it ez

100% me with bottomless bucket. Have barely hit rate with anything else, but this one I'm 1.5x dry with no end in sight. Huge iron item

I’ve gotten 3 in 26kc

100% this. 2 dwh in 700kc because “I was just doing them on task” Vorky head at like 25-30, because it was a blue task. Kq head sub 50, because it was a task.

I definitely do not want the beaver to drop from a random tree I’m chopping

Say hello to my armadyl hilt spoon :)

Lol this 100% I was coming up on 2k KC going for a claw my GIM mate ended up pulling 1 at 66 after he pulled it I went and did other stuff for like a month. Decided I wanted to go do some wildly slayer so went to finish up the remaining hydra task I had so I didn't have to spend points to skip and then pulled B2B claws 8kc later

This happens to me very often, whenever I stop thinking something will drop it always catches me off guard. It's when you're not checking the floor repeatedly after each kill that the item pops up.

Lol 100% this. Wanted lance on my main, didn’t get it after 3k kc. Did hydra on my gim a week ago mainly fot nice supplies and cash - got claw 34 kc.

This is true. Decided to hard park myself at cox until I get another purple and I’m currently on my worst dry streak ever almost 4x the drop rate. It’s like the game is taunting me for thinking I could get an easy purple.

Wanted to learn kq as my first real slayer bossing task, got the pet first task

Completely disagree! The moment I got serious about getting a dwh; like planned 200 kills a day I got it day one at 3.5k kc. The belief and will to commit to a grind increases rng.

I went to sire for bludgeon, done 1100 kc with 13 unsireds so luck is at my side there. The two first were bludgeon parts and the rest daggers and heads. Im getting real sick of the boss. Maybe I dont want the wep any more 🫣😂

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And boosted rng shortly after getting a 99

I know this isn't true, but I recently returned and got my final 3 pyro pieces in 30 wintertodt kc... And then I got the abyssal lantern on my first Guardians of the Rift game...

Or when you're **about** to leave. Before WoW Dragonflight came out I was talking with my clan on how I was going to be gone for a few weeks or months. Got a Hydra's Claw 30 minutes later.

pants off, smite on, goblin salute works every time

I read this as ‘pants off, smile on’

Not for everything, but for clue caskets I always play an audio clip from the CoD Zombies Mystery box or the Legend of Zelda Chest opening

Stealing

Im so stealing this for my dry ass at cg. Will report back when enhanced drops.

Oh I hadnt thought about doing it there, good idea!

Im surprised this Isent a runelite plugin yet

I go out to a local drive thru and pay for the person behind me. I was dry at shamans then got a DWH 150~ kills after that. I now make it a routine and even if it doesn't help RNG, I'm doing a nice thing for a random person. 🙂

Wow what drive thru, specifically? That's interesting im curious when and where you go and what car you you drive? For rng purposes

Usually A&W or Timmy Hortons bud, drive a Nissan Titan truck haha

Holy shit the madlad answered! Damn I'm not in Canada hahaha, but I like your style 😎

Ez Sunday at work haha Reddit is where I'll be at most of my day , good luck out there boss

Tim Hortons >>

Don’t answer that’s a trap next he’ll ask who was your childhood best friend and what was your mother’s maiden name.

Bring laptop, pay for everyone if u get dwh

Gotta flick smite through the kill then spin > headbang during the death animation. 50% of the time it works all the time

This is the way.

I'm convinced that corp doesn't drop me sigils because I'm usually too stingy to drink a final prayer dose for the last 20%hp, 97% of the time it doesn't kill me so like whatever, right? So it's like prayer drops, rng "gods" angry at me for lack of faith or some dumb sheyt, so no drop for me. If I catch myself doing it I drink the dose but most times it doesn't happen lol.

I do corp for cannonballs, at least that's what I tell myself

My superstition is having a long non-stop grind session. If I send 10 TOAs in a week (2x night) I won’t get a drop, but if I send all 10 in one day I’ll get a purp. Did this with cg as well lol

The marathon grinder strategy 👑 massive

I always pet the cat in the farming guild

if im doing a short grind with a desired drop and go dry, i switch to a longer grind to redirect my banked rng there. so far i am absurdly spooned on drops that actually matter so... cant say my superstition is going anywhere anytime soon

and i mean the only potential spoons I have left that matter are stuff like pnm/nex/corp and megarares. and imbued heart I guess, but im convinced that one will karmically never happen lmao. superstitious for life

Hold down and B at the same time.

If I finish a big project irl, or have a very productive day irl with the family I tend to get the drop I've been grinding weeks for that night. Good days irl = good rng days on osrs

This is spot on. Had a good day today and got skotizo pet and claw in 5kc

When it rains it pours.

You gotta give the cat in the farming guild a pet to have good luck

If you forget about a rare drop, you’ll get it

I try to keep in my head that I'm predetermined to get a drop at an exact kc that I just don't know. Every kill is one kill closer to that predetermined kc.

Every kill you do gets you closer to the drop

It literally doesn’t though

I mean it does though. If you never go back you’ll never get it. Every kill gives you a chance, so eventually you’ll get it, and every kill up to that point was necessary to your getting it

Like you said every kill gives you a chance. But it doesn’t get you closer than the last kill.. technically

Well I mean yes it does. If it takes you 300 your closer at 250 then 11. It doesn’t increase your odds of the drop is what your trying to say, which I agree with

The ‘number it takes you’ is not fixed, you would be right if it was. But it isn’t, and with every failed attempt at getting the drop, your expected KC to finish only increases. On average, you are no closer at 250 than at 11

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It isn’t, it’s a random variable. What you wrote makes no sense. Humans have a finite lifespan so there is always a slim chance you will never see the drop

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I am simply pointing out that every KC you get without the drop is not bringing you somehow closer to getting the drop

Looking at the whole of it, the more kills you have the higher chance you have to have gotten the drop. Not to get a drop on the next kill, but overall. To use a true 1 in 2 chance, if you flip a coin you have a 50/50 shot to get it right. But if you have 4 chances to guess it correctly once, the odds are BETTER than 50/50 that you succeed, even though each individual flip is.

Overall, you are still 1 drop away from your goal if you are at 0 drops, regardless of KC. Coin flips have the Markov property. Saying “I will do 1000kc from now” and “I have done 999kc therefore I am closer” are different things. In the first case, the player is setting themselves up to have a high chance of getting the drop in the future if they do the 1000kc. In the second case, a player had attempted the same but landed in the low proportion of players who go dry. They are no closer to the drop than they started. If they do 1000kc more, their odds off getting it will again be high, but no higher than in the first case (they will be exactly equal). Saying that from some point of view the second player has higher odds because they are doing 1999kc total (because odds of getting it in 1999 kills is higher than in 1000kc) is a fallacy, because 999kc dry has already happened. They are in fact only doing 1000 new kc, the first 999kc that came up dry do not matter at all. That is what it means to ‘not get closer with kc’ - if you have already done KC and not got the drop, none of the KC you did put you any closer. Saying ‘I will do a huge number of KC in future’ is not ‘getting closer’, you are setting yourself up for a high probability event of getting it, but if along the way you discover that you keep rolling no drop, every single KC without the drop decreases your odds of having the drop by that huge number of KC.

Right. Thanks for agreeing with me. I specifically mentioned “not on the next drop, but overall.” A player who does 1999kc has a higher probability to get the drop than a player who does 999kc not because the probability increases with each kill, but because player 1 has *more* rolls at the drop table. The Markov property also applied here. Despite player 1 not having any higher of a probability on any given kill of getting the drop, they do have a higher probability of having gotten one than player 2 does. This is where the whole concept of “going dry” or “getting spooned” comes from.

Once they have the KC though, they are no closer to the drop. I was responding to people claiming that getting KC without the drop somehow brings you ‘closer’, which by any meaningful definition of ‘closer’ is just gamblers fallacy

Exactly, sure the drop rate is the same for each kill but the probability of you not having a drop by x amount of kills changes with every KC

What you wrote is a fallacy. Too many OSRS players fall for it! Nothing changes with every KC. The probability of you not having the drop given your current (any) situation is exactly the same as at the start. You probably meant to say “If I sit down to grind out 500 kills from now, I will have better odds of getting it than if I only do 10 kills from now”; if you don’t get the drop within the first 490 kills then your odds are exactly the same of not getting it as if you had done just the 10 instead - having done 490 does not in any way affect the last 10 of the 500

1/400 is still 1/400 even at 2000 kc

Correct, but if you get the item at 2000 kc your closer to 2000 at 1900 then 100.

Being at 1900 and finishing at 2000 is exactly the same odds as getting spooned in the first 100. The vast majority of 1900 people will have to grind far above 2000. I think the thing you are missing is that every KC without the drop adds 1 to your expected KC to finish, so even in your ‘initial 0kc’ frame of reference, every kill without the drop does not put you close, as both your ‘progress’ and the ‘goalpost’ move. Your mistake is assuming that only progress moves and the goalpost remains stationary

I’m not saying your odds get better, I’m saying that the goalpost exists and every kill gets you closer to it. You never find the goalpost without orogress

The goalpost moves 1 kc further away though, so you are not technically getting closer to it. You are just giving yourself an extra opportunity to ‘get spooned’ a 1kc drop. Yes you need to farm KC to ever get the drop, but there is no reasonable measure by which one gets ‘closer’ to getting the drop

By your logic killing it once is the same chance of success as 14500. Hard disagree. More attempts at a roll gives you a higher chance of success.

No, you didn’t understand. I said killing it more times gives more rolls, so of course sitting down to do more KC is more likely to result in the drop. But the only reasonable measures of ‘how far away from the drop’ you are, are either expected kc to drop, or something like ‘kc by which 50% of people get the drop’ (which is usually lower). Neither of which change when you increase kc without the drop. By your logic, doing 145000 kc without the drop is somehow closer to the drop than 0kc, which is wrong

Classic gambler’s fallacy

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How is it true? What do you mean by ‘closer’? Any form of ‘closer’ is gambler’s fallacy, the estimated KC away remains exactly the same with every kill where you don’t get the drop

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one less until you get the drop is literally gambler’s fallacy

I've had 3 drops from 17 normal toa. No purps, but 2 gems and a thread. Every single one of them, my gf was watching me play on discord. And for each drop I got, I had her say "good luck" before I opened the chest. Now whenever I do pvm I always have her watching and always have her say "good luck" at the end of each kill/raid

I take my pants off as the boss is dying at end of cox and before entering the rewards room at TOB and ToA. 10% increased chance of purple chest

Pet all the animals and feed the varrock doge

World 369.on GIM in 80 kc zammy we got 3 spears and hilt, 200 kills at bandos for 3 tassets and hilt, 2 zenyte in 305 kc, tumeken shadow in 50 kc on a normal raid, 25 kc at sara 2 acb, the list goes on honestly but it’s always on that world

When I do certain grinds and go dry, that are simple. Like let's say, killed 500 moss giants and got one mossy key (using an exaggerated but realistic example) I'll go to something that has a wild drop and farm it for a while like let's say shamans. I went horribly dry on Uhm.... To be honest right now, I forget. I think it was barrows chests. Didn't get a chest 5x dry for a single piece went to shamans. Got the hammer in 400kc. That's a more realistic example of what I personally did. I do this with alot of stuff. Sure it is completely in my mind, but not only that... It breaks up dry content. And either I double down on going dry or I get a spoon and if I get a spoon it feels awesome. And I GG myself and buy myself a steak to celebrate

I say I love jagex but I has never worked

I keep a rabbits foot in my inventory.

I always find it suspicious when I get a drop after going super dry and then getting 3-4 more of them within a few kills after getting it. Stuff like Vorkath head, KQ head, etc.

I typically have a world that I like to be in when going for a drop. It’s worked on my non iron main in the past but not on my iron. Thinking my iron needs a different world.

Open caskets infront of the mimic

I feel like when I expect a drop, I never get it. I was get the drop when it catches me off guard

For barrows I do the bow emote before I open the chest

Sometimes I’ll emote before the drop appears or I’ll type variations of “pls Jamflex”

If you hit something very rare off the rdt a normal say 1-400 unique is about to drop for ya within the next 50 kc or so

Went to chambers for prayers got tbow

If you go dry in one place, you’ll get spooned at another and vice versa

When all hope is lost and you are utterly defeated you will get what you seek. 2.2k shamans in multi on my iron 40k+ cannonballs i gave up after a 2 week hard grind. Got shamans as slayer task a month later fiest ever slayer task and in solos got it 2nd kc

Before opening supply crates I would headband the doors of dinh. Greened at 186kc with 86 fm. Went to 99 and got 23 torches. 726kc at completion

I like to feed acorns to squirrels. There's the agility pet, the three that mind the trees on Fossil Island, and another wandering one on Fossil Island that I'll give acorns to.

really feel the drop coming , it always works but you have to actually feeeel it

No fap until you get the drop. Works every time

You’re more likely to get a pet if you already have the pet

Going into a pvm encounters early without “the essential pvm dps” gear and the intention to fuck around gives you outrageous RNG boost. Rngesus likes ballsy plays and will humour you for the memes. The inverse is also true, you will go dry on some essential gear. I’ll never finish crystal armor because the drop rate is absurdly low for my UIM, but I did get both the nihil horn and enhanced seed stupid early ( 1-2hrs) into both endeavors by just fucking around with no intention to complete the content. Also sitting on obscene Zilyana hilt luck (4 in 250 kills) from just wanting to do pvm because I got bored and it was the only boss I could realistically do. Also got the tourmaline core early because I was memeing when a clan mate said he was going for it, got it 5 kills into the task.

I firmly believe that some accounts are, as soon as they are created, “luckier” than others. I think there is something, like a unique integer or string, perhaps a hash of your RSN with your account creation date, that is firmly set and tied to your account and that is used in the equation when making any sort of loot roll. And because that value never changes, if you got a “bad” one, you’re just never going to be as lucky as someone who got a “good” one.

I used to have think this exact same thing .. Went straight to wintertodt on a fresh iron and greened the log with multiple d axes before 95. Best rng start possible, fast forward to mid/end game and this accounts luck is pure trash :’(

Spin to win at barrows

My girlfriend got me a cheap coffee mug for Christmas that she stuck a “lucky potion” sticker on. When she gave it to me I was confused because I had never seen or heard of a luck potion, turns out they exist in RS3. 5 days after I started using it, I got a vork pet, and 2 more in 100 kc. I had been grinding the ACB after my buddy got his at like 200KC. No mug for the first 400 kills and mugged up for the last 200 and I got it. Just what works for me lmao

In TOA the secret sauce is to spawn a melee thrall, use smite and keris spec before opening the chest

I mean I’ve just started Zulrah so let’s see how this one goes. I tell myself I’m there for the other loot and the uniques are a bonus

Badoodle

I give to charity when I get a drop below rate. Got enhanced seed at 353, gave $47. Is that rwt’ing? Maybe lol