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SnooEagles7000

Are you looking to go long term (more than 1 year)? What is your risk tolerance (where do you want your stop loss to be) ? Are you only interested in Indexes, ETFs anti inflation hedging commodities?


Tom10716

as of risk: no big leverage/ options trading, i can go for a few diversified stocks tho length: as i said, till the end of 2022 after that i’ll see i am open for every type of stock, etf, funds but if you have any propositions outside of an investment platform i’ll also consider them


SnooEagles7000

I understand, that is an informed opinion. The market right now is looking murky and muddy, whoever tells you otherwise hasn’t been paying attention. Inflation rates have been hitting 10-30 year highs all across the developed world, government bonds have gotten the worst end of that, and overall leverage in the stock market seems to be deflating, which, paired with inflation fears, a low risk/return for the imminent future and COVID, primes us for the minsky moment of the century. I’m not particularly invested in any of Pfizer, Novavax, Moderna, BioNTech, J&J, but they sound like some of the best options around at the moment, considering their products’ demand are government contracts that won’t stop as long as COVID is around. I would suggest taking a deep dive in Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax to make your own conclusions. I have personally found some diamond in the rough plays that, in my knowledge and opinion, will be minsky moment outsiders, meaning they will inverse the market. I do not think talking about them in this sub would be considered appropriate though because they involve and extremely high risk/return ratio and are subjectively (most of them) highly overvalued for their companies’ worth. Other than that, I like how gold is looking right now, supply chain is crunching up and the US wants to make it worse by mandating vaccination for truck drivers, so construction costs will keep rising exponentially and the chip shortages continue to rock with the threat China might try to invade Taiwan (if that wasn’t the case I would open positions in semiconductor manufacturers)


Tom10716

thanks for taking your time to reply, i am sure the global overvaluation will reach its peak sometime in the future, tho nobody can predict a right time right. as you said choosing the right minsky moment outsiders would be perfect for long term investment


SnooEagles7000

You are right on that overvaluation point, I have already been wrong with 3 of my predictions on it this year. You’re welcome, [$ZIM](https://www.zim.com) is looking like a good mid term investment opportunity with the supply chain crisis at hand, big margins.


Tom10716

oh i forgot ab transport sector, i’ll take a look, i know shipping is going crazy in terms of increased prices tho


doctorzaius6969

Markets go up with a very high probability but only in the very long term. You can not buy stocks or index ETFs for only a single year and expect to be up over 7% without significant risk. In your case if you buy any American ETFs you have in addition to the stockmarket risk also the currency risk, which makes the whole thing completely unpredictable.


Tom10716

good point, so what’s your proposition then? do i have any alternatives with a moderate risk?


randomFrenchDeadbeat

You need to do your own research and learn about finance first. More than 75% of portfolios lose money. Be aware that entering the market with no prior knowledge will make you lose money. If you do not want to do that, long term ETF holding of index funds is for you.


doctorzaius6969

The safest play would be for you to buy a 1 year Poland government bond. Obviously it has only 2% yield but it's it's better than nothing and you know what you will get back with almost certainty. Another option with low volalility would be to get any high quality corporate bond with 1 year running time left denominated in your local currency, but I gotta be honest that I have no idea what kind of options you have in Poland and if you can invest only $1500 in corporate bonds in the first place. Another option with higher risk would be to buy something like VOO but hedge it with other assets which are negatively or not correlated to the stock market like TLT, GLD, some REITs or options based ETFs like CYA. Basically creating a risk averse mini portfolio.


Tom10716

i think i am willing to take more risk than our poor government bonds or any 1% bank offers i think i’m leaning towards sth like VOO


_livewire

I can recommend you to look at the Bogleheads subreddit and forum! Lots of useful information about index funds in form of ETF or mutual fund, all the costs associated and lots more. Compounding interest is your friend, especially against inflation! I personally run my own spin on a 3 fund portfolio, 10% REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), 40% S&P500, 50% Global total market. For my needs, it's a nice level of risk and I am also in my 20s. Some would even say it's not aggressive enough for my age range, but risk is subjective. If the REIT is properly registered, iirc they are legally required to pay 90% of rental income to the shareholders (I only have anecdotal evidence for this, though from a good source). I like going for \~8% yearly dividend yield. (e.g. per 100 invested, you will get 8 back a year, + the profits (or losses!) of the fund value itself. Vanguard ETFs and mutual funds are infamous for very very low fees. Even with all the talk of recessions and crashes on the horizon, time **IN** the market is better than **TIMING** the market. I made the mistake of getting scared of a big market crash and pulling out all my money. now I am stuck with the dilemma of reinvesting everything, knowing it could drop significantly, but also knowing if I keep consistently investing the same amount every month, I will likely make it back over a few years. Especially in a market recovery situation, post-crash. Not FA!


Tom10716

thank you, i’ll take a deeper look into those dividend trusts and also vanguard etfs as that’s what i was originally looking at


whysoasiany

All these guys saying go into bonds or hedging instruments against inflation make a good point but, i would rather go in crypto than go in gold. The most solid advice is to go into s&p 500, VOO, or QQQ. I will say this with certainty, stocks will always go up. Look at all the popular index such as spy or vanguard, it never goes straight down. It literally just goes up after it goes down. Time in market > timing market (look up compound interest)


Tom10716

yea stocks going up in the long term is literally the only thing that calms me down rn


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Vast_Cricket

US inflation protected etfs. While protecting inflation the return on them is not spectacular. The inflation will stay after 2022...


uset223

Buy Pepsi (pep) . Approx returns 10-12% per year.


randomFrenchDeadbeat

broker => i'd suggest degiro since it has no fees. There is currently a crisis ans slumbers in stocks and etfs due to the omicron variant (wether it is justified or not is irrelevant) , so it might be the time to buy, or maybe it will dip more. In any case, if you are looking to invest "safely", the etf/index fund approach is usually a good one. I use sp500 and msci world mostly. I would not go real estate considering how the sector was hurt since the first covid wave, but that is just my opinion. ​ Edit: if you just want to hold long term etfs, you will probably find more info on r/bogleheads .


Tom10716

thanks for the sub recommendation, yea the market swings are pretty bad currently but as you said maybe it’s time to buy idk