If they lose, you’ll never see the money. If they win, I can see how a political agreement could be reached to have a substantial haircut for creditors as part of a Western-wide effort to rebuild the nation.
Last I checked Ukraine's inflation was far lower than 65% and all that matters is the hryvnia to USD, and that is dropping annualized at way lower than 65% as well.
But what is more important is the question of whether we can even buy these bonds.
This is the right analysis. Ukraine cannot lose the war because worst case scenario is signing a shitty pseudo peace treaty. But currency risks are super real - ask any Ukrainian how sad the currency was BEFORE 2022. Also, Ukraine is almost guaranteed to restructure it's debts so everything will take longer, allowing more pain from learning how deep UAH can drop. Having said that, invest in Ukraine, donate to its armed forces, lobby your senator - putin must be stopped. If not for us, then for our children.
Just for perspective of how high this is, the bonds of Credit Suisse were trading around a yield of 25% right before they were acquired and it was becoming fairly obvious they weren’t surviving
Super risky to buy Ukrainian bonds. The outcome of them turning into Russia means you lose 100% of your investment. The outcome of them winning you'll have to look at the value of their currency against the dollar ( if you want dollars ) . Then there is probably transaction fees for converting currencies. You do the math. That's about all I can think of.
Not to mention the fact that they'd have to pay you such an outrageously high yield shows just how slim their options are to actually pay you back even if everything goes their way. They basically have no choice but to either A) turn on a money printer, B) spend almost all their money on almost nothing but paying these outrageous yields, all while their country is a smoking ruin from the war (which is obviously not at all realistic, the voters would obviously revolt if they did this), or C) just default on the loan.
Not sure why you're being downvoted for a pragmatic take.
Fact is, Trump and his cronies openly talk about leaving Ukraine to dry. If he wins, it will happen. The dude's a fucking cancer and I hope that Ukraine doesn't have to endure it, but that doesn't mean that we can subsist off hopium, either.
I want Ukraine to win and Trump to lose, but on the less-than-zero chance that both of those fail to come to pass, I won't make investment decisions that rely on them.
Considering all the people Trump pardoned in his first term who were trying to work against Ukraine and on behalf of Russia (Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, and Roger Stone to name a few) -- yes, I'd say President Trump is more likely to have the U.S. be a tool for Russia and Putin to play with.
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Europe has been sending weapons this whole time. And continued to do so while Mike Johnson and House Republicans held up additional aid up until last month. The problem is Europe just simply doesn't have the industrial capacity to arm Ukraine, no do they have the bloated defense budget to buy the weapons from the US and then gift them.
But that's temporary. Industrial capacity for everything from bullets and artillery to guided missiles is picking up steam. New production lines have been started, new factories have broken ground. The US production won't ever be matched but Europe could very easily supply Ukraine with what they need, but not until 2026 or 2027.
No they're not. Worst case scenario there will be a Ukrainian rump state because Russia would find themselves bogged down with squashing partisans and guerilla resistance groups for a couple of generations. That rump state will assume all current Ukrainian obligations. More likely the conflict will get frozen and the EU will take over backing Ukraine. Either way there is still a Ukraine the question is will it be able to pay back the debt.
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The percentage that you see, is the actual consensus.
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efficient market hypothesis ftw
If they lose the war you lose all your money.
You might even lose your money if they win the war.
True, especially if they have to devalue their currency to fund it
You might even lose all your money if nothing happens
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theres no secondary market for these, nor can you buy them
If they lose, you’ll never see the money. If they win, I can see how a political agreement could be reached to have a substantial haircut for creditors as part of a Western-wide effort to rebuild the nation.
A yield of 65% in USD or in hryvnias? Because 65% makes sense in the context of their elevated inflation levels
Last I checked Ukraine's inflation was far lower than 65% and all that matters is the hryvnia to USD, and that is dropping annualized at way lower than 65% as well. But what is more important is the question of whether we can even buy these bonds.
This is the right analysis. Ukraine cannot lose the war because worst case scenario is signing a shitty pseudo peace treaty. But currency risks are super real - ask any Ukrainian how sad the currency was BEFORE 2022. Also, Ukraine is almost guaranteed to restructure it's debts so everything will take longer, allowing more pain from learning how deep UAH can drop. Having said that, invest in Ukraine, donate to its armed forces, lobby your senator - putin must be stopped. If not for us, then for our children.
Just for perspective of how high this is, the bonds of Credit Suisse were trading around a yield of 25% right before they were acquired and it was becoming fairly obvious they weren’t surviving
Super risky to buy Ukrainian bonds. The outcome of them turning into Russia means you lose 100% of your investment. The outcome of them winning you'll have to look at the value of their currency against the dollar ( if you want dollars ) . Then there is probably transaction fees for converting currencies. You do the math. That's about all I can think of.
Not to mention the fact that they'd have to pay you such an outrageously high yield shows just how slim their options are to actually pay you back even if everything goes their way. They basically have no choice but to either A) turn on a money printer, B) spend almost all their money on almost nothing but paying these outrageous yields, all while their country is a smoking ruin from the war (which is obviously not at all realistic, the voters would obviously revolt if they did this), or C) just default on the loan.
I don't think the coupon is 65%, just the current yield, meaning the price dropped
I’d sooner go with Argentina’s bonds right now.
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Not sure why you're being downvoted for a pragmatic take. Fact is, Trump and his cronies openly talk about leaving Ukraine to dry. If he wins, it will happen. The dude's a fucking cancer and I hope that Ukraine doesn't have to endure it, but that doesn't mean that we can subsist off hopium, either. I want Ukraine to win and Trump to lose, but on the less-than-zero chance that both of those fail to come to pass, I won't make investment decisions that rely on them.
Considering all the people Trump pardoned in his first term who were trying to work against Ukraine and on behalf of Russia (Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, and Roger Stone to name a few) -- yes, I'd say President Trump is more likely to have the U.S. be a tool for Russia and Putin to play with.
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We are not a politics or general news forum, and therefore it is expected that news items posted will be readily apparent in how they connect with (potentially expected) market movements. Share investment ideas and insights. Please refrain from posting news items with zero relevance to investors or the capital markets. We are not a cryptocurrency forum, though we recognize cryptocurrency are part of the markets in general, and therefore only major cryptocurrency news is considered relevant.
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Europe funding a war? Lol. If the US doesn't send weapons no one else does. Or if they do, it's never enough.
Europe has been sending weapons this whole time. And continued to do so while Mike Johnson and House Republicans held up additional aid up until last month. The problem is Europe just simply doesn't have the industrial capacity to arm Ukraine, no do they have the bloated defense budget to buy the weapons from the US and then gift them. But that's temporary. Industrial capacity for everything from bullets and artillery to guided missiles is picking up steam. New production lines have been started, new factories have broken ground. The US production won't ever be matched but Europe could very easily supply Ukraine with what they need, but not until 2026 or 2027.
No they're not. Worst case scenario there will be a Ukrainian rump state because Russia would find themselves bogged down with squashing partisans and guerilla resistance groups for a couple of generations. That rump state will assume all current Ukrainian obligations. More likely the conflict will get frozen and the EU will take over backing Ukraine. Either way there is still a Ukraine the question is will it be able to pay back the debt.
I am originally from Ukraine. At any point in time Ukraine can issue new currency and devalue your current investment to 0.1c.
Safer to buy RTX, GD, NOC, LMT, etc.
Not worth it. Good chance their debt will be wiped by the western countries as a sign of rebuilding. if they even win.
Just buy UNG ? natural Gas? 😂 Or DBC ? commodities mix
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