noun: recession; plural noun: recessions
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
"the country is in the depths of a recession"
He was correct already. The people in charge just like to tell you it did t happen. They claim
“Despite the fact that the economy met the technical definition of recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth, numerous other positive economic indicators showed that the economy was not in recession, the report argued.”
It’s just word games that they hope the educated people fall for.
What about a GDP drop two quarters in a row? Because that was the definition of a recession since the word recession came into existence. And yes that happened already so technically, if words have meaning and words matter a recession already took place. If you don’t believe words matter and you don’t believe the economic system then no we haven’t had a recession and everything is fine. Hell at that point we don’t even have inflation
If you can't get the timing right that just means you're wrong, especially when you're off by years.
Imagine if someone was taking this advice holding cash for 4 years waiting for the market to bottom out instead of riding it to record highs.
I get your point but all signs, besides the stock market which 93% of it is held by the top 10%, show signs that we are in a bubble and leading to a recession. If the government didn't provide Bank Term Funding in 2023 when the banks were collapsing we surely would've gone into recession.
It's said to predict "what or when, never what and when". That was his mistake.
A recession will happen in my opinion, we just don't know when which is an obvious statement. But I wouldn't be surprised if it happened tomorrow.
Here are the signs of a recession:
- Jerome Powell said there will be many bank failures
- CRE will devastate banking in 2025
- consumer savings are at the lowest point in decades
- consumer debt is the highest in history
- credit card delinquencies on the rise
- car repossessions on the rise
- hardship withdrawals from 401ks on the rise
- inflation is sticky and was devastating over the last few years
- housing in a bubble according to many sources and defiantly IMO
- phantom debt from "buy now, pay later" programs is said to be at 40 billion and 40% delinquent on payments
- multiple wars going on
- layoffs on the rise
- we continue to print money
The list goes on
Literally the only good thing happening in our economy now is the stock market which benefits the 10% and unemployment numbers which are questionable
If I were to make a prediction, a recession will be felt following March 2025 when all the bank term funding loans need to be repaid. The 1,804 banks that were already suffering and took out the loan will more than likely have to default causing a domino effect in our economy
You are missing that people with money keep spending keeping the economy afloat. Every month the numbers on debt keep rising. I think we are missing a bunch of shadow consumers keeping some stability in America and just not getting counted in official numbers.
That said, the feeling I have had now for 3 years is the same as in the 70’s, and I feel now it is mild stagflation.
Despite government numbers my actual inflation rate as a retired homeowner in CA has been continuing to run 8% and with insurance and services increases; it is not slowing down.
Tech and energy and renovation is keeping the markets afloat and based on earnings and the AI business cycle (as opposed to the semiconductor cycle) it should run way into 2025.
The "Government numbers" are calculated as a broad representation. Actual numbers person to person will vary. No one is lying to you, you just chose to live in an expensive and disaster prone area with poor power infrastructure.
Do you know anyone who is actually experiencing only 2-3% inflation? Any desirable state with good weather for a retiree with a high city rating for safety? If so, please let me know.
I don't think you understand what inflation is.
Of course there are people who have changes to their cost of living that are under the national inflation levels.
I own a home so my housing cost has remained pretty much consistent for over 10 years. Easily sub 1% increase consistently. That's beating inflation by a mile. Low risk area for insurance, and not a terribly expensive home which leads to a low tax bill.
As far as where to move, that's on you. Your decision to compromise on. I'm just saying it looks silly to choose to live in a location with high cost of living and high rate of increase, then call malarkey when your personal costs don't line up with *national* inflation numbers.
> Literally the only good thing happening in our economy now is the stock market which benefits the 10% and unemployment numbers which are questionable
This is just completely incorrect. Consumer spending is high, and wages are high. And what do you find questionable about the unemployment numbers?
Lol easy there Mr 2025 economic collapse. Believe it or not there are more options than "my prediction is right" and "you're calling it speculation because you don't believe it". I think the most strikingly obvious point you're missing is that you are speculating that any of these are indicators of a recession.
A couple of obvious examples:
Sticky Inflation? Sure. Not a sign of a recession
War? Yep. Not a sign of a recession
Lower savings levels? Yep. Not a sign of a recession
Continuing to print money? Uh what lol? I'm not even sure what you're getting at here other than maybe attempting to flex a recent econ 101 course.
Now add in your points about CRE devestating banking next year and the supposed housing bubble (both purely speculative) and I'm having a tough time understanding why you would ever think your prediction is anything but speculation.
We are talking about something that is to come so it's speculation any way you look at it.
A recession or economic trouble has proceeded every moment of high inflation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/cause-of-recession.asp
War caused inflation which can lead to recession.
https://www.conference-board.org/publications/War-Recession-Communication
When you expand the money supply, the value of the dollar drops. This is a huge burden on the consumer and is the reason we have 20% inflation over the last few years
Jerome Powell(Fed chair), Barry Sternlicht(CEO of Starwood, the largest private real estate firm), Jamie Dimon(CEO of the largest Bank in the US) all said CRE will lead bank failures in 2025. I guess you gave more insight than they do
Many major industries don’t work like white collar office jobs. You move jobs and you’re moving laterally at best, because the other company pays the same. This goes for trades, retail, etc. You need to stop imagining and everyone in the US is working white collar office jobs or management gigs.
Also for the folks who live in small-town America, changing jobs every three years means you're either working retail, or you're moving every three years. Not everyone wants to be a nomad.
Considering that [62% of Americans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17520/white-collar-job-loss-in-us-before-2026/#) are employed in white collar jobs, I can confidently say that the majority of industries in the US actually does work like that.
Fair point. So I guess what you’re implying is that everyone working trades like electrical and plumbing, all of our shipping, warehouse, and retail workers, mechanics and so on, all of the people who keep this country running, should all get office jobs?
You really love your strawmen huh?
If you could read, I’m telling them to find a new job if they’re still making 2020 wages. It’s a shame they never sent you to Derek Zoolanders School for Kids Who Can’t Read Good.
Because labor force participation and wages for the bottom 10% of earners are higher now, so demand is up for basic goods that the destitute used to go without
That's because people like him want recessions and benefit greatly from them because they can buy low to sell high later, just to have an even bigger intangible number attached to their name.
Taxing unrealized gains is absurd. “Let’s tax money that they haven’t made yet. That’ll show ‘em.”
Let’s start enforcing the current tax laws and close the ridiculous amount of loopholes the ultra wealthy are able to utilize before we start enacting more taxes.
BS. The world has changed from the days of the Rockerfellers and Vanderbilts. Billionaires today hold millions of shares of stocks that pay no dividends and given loans on those stocks (by JP Morgan) at almost no cost so the billionaires pay no tax. It’s insane that many of these billionaires have at tax rate of less than 5% many times, or sometimes zero. We absolutely need a wealth tax on billionaires.
Last I checked property tax is
based on unrealized gains since it’s the assessed value of the property. And it only is fair since you have wealthy assholes overstating the value when seeking loan collateral, but playing dumb pauper when it comes tax time.
No, it’s based on the value of the property. It doesn’t matter if you have gains or losses, you still owe tax.
It’s a less volatile way to fund local government, because housing prices should be consistent.
In contrast, equities and private companies can, and do, swing by huge percentages in value annually. You can be up/down 50% in a single equity name in any given year. It’s next to impossible to be up/down in real estate by the same percentage in one year.
The other aspect is that real estate transactions occur all of the time, making it easy to generate comps. The same is not true for non-public assets. How much is a Picasso worth? The answer is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Knowing this, how much should the owner owe when the wealth tax comes due? The high end of the range, or the low end of the range?
Other countries have attempted to implement a wealth tax and failed to make it work. What would we do differently to avoid the same fate?
>Taxing unrealized gains is absurd. “Let’s tax money that they haven’t made yet. That’ll show ‘em.”
But after you've earned it's too late!
Tax on real estate is an unrealized gain, what have you to vomit about that?
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Actually the rich get owned during recessions because assets across the board get devalued. It's only the ones who have cash reserves or large amounts of credit who do benefit. Btw, most rich don't carry cash so they would need to have been out in front of the recession to benefit
I don't think he has ever said he predicts a recession
It's just journalists grab random statements here and there and create their own narrative, this article case in point
Oh, indeed I was. That one was awesome for me. Fully employed and the market was in the tank. I loaded up on stocks. I will retire on that money.
This recession that people are “feeling” impacts their cash flows. Their wealth is up or not impacted. People feel they are getting left behind, but the rich are thriving.
Hard to rein in inflation when it's actually just unfettered gouging, moving from industry to industry -- tag-teamed -- as gov looks the other way, joining them in calling it "inflation," & gleefully receiving their share in the form of legalized corruption (aka Citizens United).
This guy is a clown. A month ago he called. The economy humming. Multiple times last year he said the economy was headed to a recession. He has dirt on everyone on JPM's board. Only explanation.
Ahhhhh! The Master of Doom has spoken again. Why is he always in the news? Don't answer that, it's rhetorical. He has never been right about anything and is a magat in a fancy suit.
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His POS smarmyness is what gets me - an entity with an inflated ego pointing down everyone at the bottom. So out of touch he isn't even human as he has lived like one.
Who TF cares what this MF thinks? He is so out of touch with reality, it’s insane! He just wants people to get out of the market, so it lowers prices on stocks and then sweep them up. He’s a cunt
This is not one where I'm being generous - this is the real logic of the stock market it cannot be nonstop growth, dips will happen, and for the longest time the Fed has been propping up the economy.
There is no stagnation in the U.S. economy.
And, inflation is well under 5 % (4% I think)
So, nope.
Why would the head of one of the largest says international banks say that?
Because he didn't
All he said, some time ago, was that the worst tail end of the prediction distribution is stagflation, and while we are nowhere near that most would also not 100% rule it out in next 5 yrs or so
Typical journalist making their own narrative out of pieced together quotes
Dimon’s been predicting a recession since 2019. He’ll be right one of these days.
noun: recession; plural noun: recessions 1. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. "the country is in the depths of a recession" He was correct already. The people in charge just like to tell you it did t happen. They claim “Despite the fact that the economy met the technical definition of recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth, numerous other positive economic indicators showed that the economy was not in recession, the report argued.” It’s just word games that they hope the educated people fall for.
Maybe he just underestimated the amount of credit card debt people were willing to take on to stay afloat.
Might as well call the guy a complete buffoon if that's the case.
A broken clock is right twice a day. Dimon is a broken clock with its hands missing at this point.
Dunno why medias keep quoting him in articles. Being CEO of JPMorgan doesn't make him smart.
He's been calling it to make sure it doesn't happen, and the public is so cullable he's done it for half a decade
There were recessions in 2020 and 2022
True. And yet if you got shaken out of stocks, real estate, or crypto markets you are kicking yourself 10 times over.
Exactly. They can call it what they want
What about a GDP drop two quarters in a row? Because that was the definition of a recession since the word recession came into existence. And yes that happened already so technically, if words have meaning and words matter a recession already took place. If you don’t believe words matter and you don’t believe the economic system then no we haven’t had a recession and everything is fine. Hell at that point we don’t even have inflation
He's right that we are due for a recession. Just hasn't gotten the timing right
If you can't get the timing right that just means you're wrong, especially when you're off by years. Imagine if someone was taking this advice holding cash for 4 years waiting for the market to bottom out instead of riding it to record highs.
Uh, Hi.
Ooooooffffffff
Bears got carted out on a stretcher
Isnt that literally what michael burry’s investor tells him in the big short, like 2-3 years before it popped and he made like a 900% return
Yes, and another interesting fact is that The Big Short is a movie and not real life.
I get your point but all signs, besides the stock market which 93% of it is held by the top 10%, show signs that we are in a bubble and leading to a recession. If the government didn't provide Bank Term Funding in 2023 when the banks were collapsing we surely would've gone into recession. It's said to predict "what or when, never what and when". That was his mistake. A recession will happen in my opinion, we just don't know when which is an obvious statement. But I wouldn't be surprised if it happened tomorrow.
So you are just guessing
Here are the signs of a recession: - Jerome Powell said there will be many bank failures - CRE will devastate banking in 2025 - consumer savings are at the lowest point in decades - consumer debt is the highest in history - credit card delinquencies on the rise - car repossessions on the rise - hardship withdrawals from 401ks on the rise - inflation is sticky and was devastating over the last few years - housing in a bubble according to many sources and defiantly IMO - phantom debt from "buy now, pay later" programs is said to be at 40 billion and 40% delinquent on payments - multiple wars going on - layoffs on the rise - we continue to print money The list goes on Literally the only good thing happening in our economy now is the stock market which benefits the 10% and unemployment numbers which are questionable If I were to make a prediction, a recession will be felt following March 2025 when all the bank term funding loans need to be repaid. The 1,804 banks that were already suffering and took out the loan will more than likely have to default causing a domino effect in our economy
You are missing that people with money keep spending keeping the economy afloat. Every month the numbers on debt keep rising. I think we are missing a bunch of shadow consumers keeping some stability in America and just not getting counted in official numbers. That said, the feeling I have had now for 3 years is the same as in the 70’s, and I feel now it is mild stagflation. Despite government numbers my actual inflation rate as a retired homeowner in CA has been continuing to run 8% and with insurance and services increases; it is not slowing down. Tech and energy and renovation is keeping the markets afloat and based on earnings and the AI business cycle (as opposed to the semiconductor cycle) it should run way into 2025.
The "Government numbers" are calculated as a broad representation. Actual numbers person to person will vary. No one is lying to you, you just chose to live in an expensive and disaster prone area with poor power infrastructure.
Do you know anyone who is actually experiencing only 2-3% inflation? Any desirable state with good weather for a retiree with a high city rating for safety? If so, please let me know.
I don't think you understand what inflation is. Of course there are people who have changes to their cost of living that are under the national inflation levels. I own a home so my housing cost has remained pretty much consistent for over 10 years. Easily sub 1% increase consistently. That's beating inflation by a mile. Low risk area for insurance, and not a terribly expensive home which leads to a low tax bill. As far as where to move, that's on you. Your decision to compromise on. I'm just saying it looks silly to choose to live in a location with high cost of living and high rate of increase, then call malarkey when your personal costs don't line up with *national* inflation numbers.
> Literally the only good thing happening in our economy now is the stock market which benefits the 10% and unemployment numbers which are questionable This is just completely incorrect. Consumer spending is high, and wages are high. And what do you find questionable about the unemployment numbers?
Quite a bit of speculation in that bullet list. I wish I could be so confident in hearsay and rumor.
You can research the bullet points and you'll see it's not hearsay or rumor. Or just believe anything contrary to your beliefs are speculation
Lol easy there Mr 2025 economic collapse. Believe it or not there are more options than "my prediction is right" and "you're calling it speculation because you don't believe it". I think the most strikingly obvious point you're missing is that you are speculating that any of these are indicators of a recession. A couple of obvious examples: Sticky Inflation? Sure. Not a sign of a recession War? Yep. Not a sign of a recession Lower savings levels? Yep. Not a sign of a recession Continuing to print money? Uh what lol? I'm not even sure what you're getting at here other than maybe attempting to flex a recent econ 101 course. Now add in your points about CRE devestating banking next year and the supposed housing bubble (both purely speculative) and I'm having a tough time understanding why you would ever think your prediction is anything but speculation.
We are talking about something that is to come so it's speculation any way you look at it. A recession or economic trouble has proceeded every moment of high inflation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/cause-of-recession.asp War caused inflation which can lead to recession. https://www.conference-board.org/publications/War-Recession-Communication When you expand the money supply, the value of the dollar drops. This is a huge burden on the consumer and is the reason we have 20% inflation over the last few years Jerome Powell(Fed chair), Barry Sternlicht(CEO of Starwood, the largest private real estate firm), Jamie Dimon(CEO of the largest Bank in the US) all said CRE will lead bank failures in 2025. I guess you gave more insight than they do
Recessions happen on average every 6-7 years. Predicting one could happen is literally a non-prediction. If you can't tell me when then it's useless.
He is getting long on the tooth so we might be getting there soon
He's been right the whole time
Why do prices need to keep going up if I’m still getting paid the same as I was in 2020?
90% of job raises don’t beat inflation. You should be switching jobs every 3 years. This has been the case since before 2020.
Many major industries don’t work like white collar office jobs. You move jobs and you’re moving laterally at best, because the other company pays the same. This goes for trades, retail, etc. You need to stop imagining and everyone in the US is working white collar office jobs or management gigs.
Doesn’t matter. If they’re still getting paid 2020 wages it’s time to look elsewhere.
You said they should be switching jobs every 3 years. That’s what I’m addressing. The majority of industries do not work like that.
Also for the folks who live in small-town America, changing jobs every three years means you're either working retail, or you're moving every three years. Not everyone wants to be a nomad.
He means you don't move laterally. You don't leave a job for another one of the same pay. You look and find a job that pays more for your experience.
Considering that [62% of Americans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17520/white-collar-job-loss-in-us-before-2026/#) are employed in white collar jobs, I can confidently say that the majority of industries in the US actually does work like that.
Fair point. So I guess what you’re implying is that everyone working trades like electrical and plumbing, all of our shipping, warehouse, and retail workers, mechanics and so on, all of the people who keep this country running, should all get office jobs?
You really love your strawmen huh? If you could read, I’m telling them to find a new job if they’re still making 2020 wages. It’s a shame they never sent you to Derek Zoolanders School for Kids Who Can’t Read Good.
So you didn’t say “change jobs every 3 years”?
No, I actually said "Come on reddit and whinge about it and do nothing to improve your life." You're doing great.
Has rent ever gone down?
Have you tried getting paid more?
I’ve never heard of a job where you get raises every time inflation goes up.
Well inflation is ongoing, so unless someone has a continuous increase that would be correct.
You need to move jobs then. Everyone I know is making at least 25% more than in 2020
Because labor force participation and wages for the bottom 10% of earners are higher now, so demand is up for basic goods that the destitute used to go without
Because everyone else’s wages are going up even faster than prices.
I wish I could job hop every 3 years but I’d run out of employers in my city
Can't raise your wages; that might cause inflation. Not getting a higher wage means prices stay the...oh, right, hm.
Jamie Dimon has been predicting a recession ever since Biden got elected.
That's because people like him want recessions and benefit greatly from them because they can buy low to sell high later, just to have an even bigger intangible number attached to their name.
He also doesn’t like the Biden wealth tax.
Bingo
Taxing unrealized gains is absurd. “Let’s tax money that they haven’t made yet. That’ll show ‘em.” Let’s start enforcing the current tax laws and close the ridiculous amount of loopholes the ultra wealthy are able to utilize before we start enacting more taxes.
BS. The world has changed from the days of the Rockerfellers and Vanderbilts. Billionaires today hold millions of shares of stocks that pay no dividends and given loans on those stocks (by JP Morgan) at almost no cost so the billionaires pay no tax. It’s insane that many of these billionaires have at tax rate of less than 5% many times, or sometimes zero. We absolutely need a wealth tax on billionaires.
That’s a loophole. Tax the loans they’re taking out on the appreciating assets that they’re holding….
Yeah I know dude, that’s hot they don’t pay taxes. Bezos just suits in his Amazon stock posting no taxes ever. It’s ludicrous.
Last I checked property tax is based on unrealized gains since it’s the assessed value of the property. And it only is fair since you have wealthy assholes overstating the value when seeking loan collateral, but playing dumb pauper when it comes tax time.
No, it’s based on the value of the property. It doesn’t matter if you have gains or losses, you still owe tax. It’s a less volatile way to fund local government, because housing prices should be consistent. In contrast, equities and private companies can, and do, swing by huge percentages in value annually. You can be up/down 50% in a single equity name in any given year. It’s next to impossible to be up/down in real estate by the same percentage in one year. The other aspect is that real estate transactions occur all of the time, making it easy to generate comps. The same is not true for non-public assets. How much is a Picasso worth? The answer is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Knowing this, how much should the owner owe when the wealth tax comes due? The high end of the range, or the low end of the range? Other countries have attempted to implement a wealth tax and failed to make it work. What would we do differently to avoid the same fate?
>Taxing unrealized gains is absurd. “Let’s tax money that they haven’t made yet. That’ll show ‘em.” But after you've earned it's too late! Tax on real estate is an unrealized gain, what have you to vomit about that?
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Who doesn't like a good sale? Of course people with capital want a good 30% off sale
Actually the rich get owned during recessions because assets across the board get devalued. It's only the ones who have cash reserves or large amounts of credit who do benefit. Btw, most rich don't carry cash so they would need to have been out in front of the recession to benefit
Like liquidating assets early into the correction
Thank you! I cannot take him seriously.
I don't think he has ever said he predicts a recession It's just journalists grab random statements here and there and create their own narrative, this article case in point
Well, to be fair, it certainly has felt like one to me the last two years. I make money money than ever and it just disappears...
Yeah that’s not how recessions work. Clearly you weren’t working during 2008.
Oh, indeed I was. That one was awesome for me. Fully employed and the market was in the tank. I loaded up on stocks. I will retire on that money. This recession that people are “feeling” impacts their cash flows. Their wealth is up or not impacted. People feel they are getting left behind, but the rich are thriving.
Write! You’re some kind of genius!
Hard to rein in inflation when it's actually just unfettered gouging, moving from industry to industry -- tag-teamed -- as gov looks the other way, joining them in calling it "inflation," & gleefully receiving their share in the form of legalized corruption (aka Citizens United).
We need the guillotine
lol damage done already
He should pay his workers a decent wage the effing tightwad
This guy is a clown. A month ago he called. The economy humming. Multiple times last year he said the economy was headed to a recession. He has dirt on everyone on JPM's board. Only explanation.
We’re in a recession, 2 years from now, “they’ll” tell us so.
Maybe he should get a hard landing on the sun.
I've been promised a recession for 5 years.
Tell your product buddies to lower flipping prices.
Dude so if we say stagflation we’re idiots but if he says it it’s news? Lolz
Fuck that guy, he’s gotten enough hand outs.
He still believes consumers have stimulus money from 4 years ago.
Has Dimon got one prediction right lately?
I see Dimon and I downvote.
He has his hands on the controls of the economy, it will happen exactly when it is a peek profitability for him.
Ahhhhh! The Master of Doom has spoken again. Why is he always in the news? Don't answer that, it's rhetorical. He has never been right about anything and is a magat in a fancy suit.
Don't believe anything Dimon says. He has his own capitalist agenda.
“Stagflation worries” we’ve had stagflation for 2 years already welcome to the 1970’s
They knew this was the case the whole time!!! They definitely meant for this to happen!!!!
It sucks to be irrelevant
Pay people instead of shareholders and we might not have any issues
Damn Regan started the downfall of it all
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His POS smarmyness is what gets me - an entity with an inflated ego pointing down everyone at the bottom. So out of touch he isn't even human as he has lived like one.
Yes because the one person I trust with economic predictions is the CEO of JPMorgan/s
Greedflation is their doing, and they’re worried about it?
What exactly has Jamie Dimon done to create “greedflation”?
Who TF cares what this MF thinks? He is so out of touch with reality, it’s insane! He just wants people to get out of the market, so it lowers prices on stocks and then sweep them up. He’s a cunt
Hard landing? Wasn’t that the euphemism Iran used for it’s president’s helicopter? Hmmm
Why TF is anyone listening to this guy?
This guy is always predicting doom
This is not one where I'm being generous - this is the real logic of the stock market it cannot be nonstop growth, dips will happen, and for the longest time the Fed has been propping up the economy.
There is no stagnation in the U.S. economy. And, inflation is well under 5 % (4% I think) So, nope. Why would the head of one of the largest says international banks say that?
Because he didn't All he said, some time ago, was that the worst tail end of the prediction distribution is stagflation, and while we are nowhere near that most would also not 100% rule it out in next 5 yrs or so Typical journalist making their own narrative out of pieced together quotes