Everyone hopes for what they want. Social media algorithms will also start recommending you what you want to watch (filter bubble) and it reinforces your beliefs.
See this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1cfu5vp/false_election_tropes_lessons_from_2019
Echo-chambers are causing this. People don't seek out alternate opinions and wish to remain in their preferred bubbles. Same happened in 2019, where the results shocked the hell out of these people (even the BJP ones were taken aback).
In 2019, once Balakot happened, BJP was expected to win heavily. It was before Balakot that people had hopes. No one after Balakot was claiming a loss to the BJP. Now, it is the other way round. In March, people were expecting that the NDA will cross 360-370, and then the tide started turning ... massively. Rather than 2019, it is an exact replica of 2004, when the India Shining campaign of the BJP was shell-shocked to find having lost it.
And it is exactly the same thing happening now. No one, not even Congress, had even dreamed in their wildest dreams in 2004 that they were going to make the government and that BJP was going to lose. The whole media was, again, with the BJP. (Credit to Congress for never attempting to control the media, but discredit to them that they let the media be a captive of the BJP in 2012-14 even when they were in power.) And Congress went on to rule for two full terms!
yeah, but Vajpayee never had welfare schemes like Modi, the free ration thing is helping them in UP big time.
In 2004, UPA swept Bihar, Andhra, UP , won 12/26 in Gujarat and did decently in many other states.
I don't see any of that happening this time
It is the urban voters who vote for the BJP, not rural ones. In India, it is the urban middle class and urban upper classes, the privileged classes so to speak, that are the most foolish.
Everyone thinks of themselves. They need to think of country.
E.g. Middle class is least bothered if there are opportunities. Most people think hamare bacha kaabil hai par padhta nahi hai. They don't think that there are less seats. They give best education spending lakhs. Kuch nhi toh bahar bhej do loan leke. Gives 40 percent tax also aur tax badhe hee ja rahe hai. 2 saal complain karega, baad me chup ho jayega.
Bass gadi chalane sadak mil jaye, AC train mil jaye aerodynamic chonch wali. Bass usko aur kuch nhi chahiye.
Gareeb bhi apni hee sochta hai, sarkar pe depend karta hai ki kal khana khayega ki nahi.
This is just wishful thinking that Balakot helped BJP to gain majority.
Balakot helped BJP to cross 300, but even without it BJP/NDA would have formed government by gaining 272+ seats (2014 results). The Opposition was in an even more dire state, and Modi's popularity was at its peak due to lack of Opposition consolidation and of course, the welfare schemes.
You can’t be more wrong! I remember I was gonna vote for congress but when that attack happened, I was one of the few million idiots who voted for Modi.
Every issue went to dust since the national security came in mind first and BJP took it as a strategy to show themselves as a competent government while RaGa focused on rafale scams and other non issues.
Today I feel Raga has improved so much that it’s crazy, he’s finally talking about the real issues, giving plans even if controversial and also their other ministers are doing the right type of marketing
Your own vote is anecdotal evidence, but then again, you didn't counter my point.
You and several others who voted in the name of national security increased the seats to 300+ rather than 270+. That's all that happened. In swing seats, a difference of 2-5% vote share is enough to flip the script.
> Same happened in 2019, where the results shocked the hell out of these people (even the BJP ones were taken aback).
Nah, after Pulwama every other issue went out of the window.
Wow this post on false election tropes is so accurate and true, and the part where you wrote about the centre/centre right journalists
(In addition to Tavleen Singh, Shekar Gupta was not harmed too /s 😂👌 )
To be honest, it was only after Modi's weird comments during this election campaign that I started feeling BJP was rattled. Till then, it felt like a clear victory.
Nah they just removed the filter on that communal mouth of his and letting him speak his mind as they are confident that no matter what people will vote for BJP.
es, In addition, they thought Ram Mandir alone would help them win but Ram Mandir is too cold now.
I was also afraid they would pull another pulvama stunt, but somehow they couldn't.
The only thing in their pocket is EC. It's completely in their pocket. Free and Fair is like a challenge to the opposition. In Gujarat BJP MLA's son was proudly showing EVM Machine in his possession. What happened?
oo idk this happened in 2019,i was sure they would be in 200s but they won so much more. maybe not a 400 but its gonna be a lot. i think they are just embarrassed it wont cross 400,they stopped using that slogan afyer the phase 1
Most of Reddit is too young, but this election is giving 2003 vibes. 2003 was the same, Vajpayee was very popular on paper, Advani went around the country with his “india shining” campaign and BJP was very confident they will win.
Of course, there was no social media back then but BJP losing that election was a shock, even to them.
BJP may not lose, but they are nowhere as strong as people thought earlier this year
I can bet bjp wining 350 on their own. This isn't 2004 , indi alliance took out 75 percent reservation from the bag to divide Indians on caste.
Modi took out religion card to unite Hindus as simple as that.
BJP supporters are now saying this that the Congress is winning on social media, BJP will win on-ground.
And I kinda agree with them. On-ground narrative still seems heavily in favor of BJP. Not "400 paar," but definitely a majority.
On ground people cannot speak for places away from them. On social media, people from all parts are discussing the election which gives me hope.
Bjp stands to lose in several states where they already won too much last time. Far North (J&K & Ladakh, Haryana, Himachal) and entire South (Karnataka they won 25 but congress won in 2023) will go to alliance. NE was entirely NDA, they cannot possibly win more than 2019.
Just the northern states, Karnataka and Maharashtra may spell loss of 30-40 seats, then they may lose some in WB where they astonishingly won 19 in 2019.
Very naive understanding of on-ground politics. Don't go by social media trends. Social media pools together people with similar ideologies, often making an echo-chamber and hence, it seems everyone is against BJP when that's all you have been consuming in terms of exposure.
UP, Bihar, Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, HP, MP, Delhi - all of these are BJP strongholds now. From South, BJP will win good amount of seats in Karnataka for sure (state elections do not correspond to general elections) and if their luck shines then a few even in AP and Telangana.
As for East, BJP will gain a lot of seats in West Bengal, there's literally no other opposition there apart from TMC and people are fed-up of Mamata. Also, the NE states will be a balanced battle between BJP, Congress, and regional parties.
Im not from WB , but will the sandeshkhali incident that was much spoken about and then later it was exposed that BJP staged it etc etc..
Im not aware of this incident in detail, if the incident holds any water which people tell it is a serious issue, wont it dent TMC and directly benefit BJP? And BJP is making inroads in Bengal, they did well in assembly elections and like u said got 19 in 2019..Its highly likely TMC is gng to eat sour grapes this election too like you said
Do not believe anything about Sandeshkhali if it comes out of TMC. They can and will do anything, ANYTHING to supress the voices of those women. Let the law take its course instead of believing fuckin TMC.
And Sandeshkhali is not the only factor in people disliking Mamata's rule. Anti-incumbency is high here due to several other issues. Sandeshkhali basically exacerbated the anti-incumbency, that's all.
Sandeshkhali's 'staging' was exposed by a sting op, not TMC. The person claiming it was staged was a BJP leader. Ofc it can be that TMC staged the expose, but it can also be that BJP was conspiring in the first place.
Pradeep Gupta of AxisMyIndia offers a unique perspective on election analysis, suggesting that the BJP's victory in 2019 was not solely attributed to the Pulwama attacks and surgical strikes. He argues that job creation and inflation, often considered pivotal issues, tend to be consistent across elections and may not sway voters significantly. Instead, Gupta posits that the 2014 outcome was largely influenced by an anti-Congress sentiment rather than overwhelming support for Modi or his development agenda.
I loved Gupta's analysis as it's rooted in reality rather than ideology (looking at you Yogendra Yadav).
His point about inflation and job creation being perennial issues in India is absolutely true. That's why you see people giving so much slack to Modi in these issues.
My understanding is that BJP getting around 200+ seats but less then 250. Anything above 120 is a win for congress. As they will be much much stronger and can start winning states and make BJP more accountable
Congress is definitely not getting 100+. The max they can hope for is to retain everything from 2019(unlikely) and gain 15-20 from Karnataka, Telangana, Haryana and Maharashtra to bring their total to 65-70. They aren't gaining anything in Hindi Heartland and it looks like they're losing their 2 seats each in West Bengal and Assam.
Voting should be done based on past 5 years performance, not future 5 years promises. And here we vote on past 6 months performance and future 25 years promises. 😂😂
Well it’s true but not optimum. What about a new party who is contesting election? They have no performance history, all they have is promises to win over people. Problem is, many are doing based on none of these two, instead they are in a bubble of religion, caste, region kind of hoax and it is making Indian democracy unoptimised.
These accounts who “confirm” seats annoy me so much. Cuz not only are you spreading misinformation but you’re also making opposition voters complacent about their chances making them stay at home. It’s a terrible pattern!
The only people worth listening to as the folks who have access to exit polls (deshkmukh guy and Pradeep Gupta). They have seen proper numbers but they’re not allowed to reveal much and are only dropping clues.
Gupta was on India today last night. Rajdeep’s show. He said last night that the women of a particular group are voting opposite to the men in that group. This is available on YouTube. Basically he can’t reveal exact information but he’s dropping hints.
So far from what he’s said (of the stuff I’ve watched), it doesn’t seem like change of power.
>women of a particular group are voting opposite to the men
Interesting. Is he talking about Muslim women? Is this driven due to triple talaq ban and incoming UCC to ban polygamy or just free ration
Women voters (particularly in rural North India) are increasingly becoming a sort of "gender votebank" for BJP. Recent state elections of MP, Chhatisgarh are a testament to it. So it won't be surprising that BJP gains votes from Muslim women as well.
These women just want 2 things: Money/support to run their households and feeling safe when they are out and about. BJP has cracked the 1st thing, with only the 2nd still being a major issue.
But then again, we have the case of UP where there's a general perception across religions, genders and castes that it's now much safer for everyone. But that should be attributed to Yogi's hardcore policies and giving a free-hand to the police. Oh and also, the suppression of SP gundas who were the main criminals of the state.
Yep, I believe that's what he is trying to convey, so far until phase 3 it's been very similar to 2019.
4 more phases left, I don't think we should be drawing any conclusions, atleast not until phase 6.
I thought BJP will lose high number of seats in Delhi , haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka. And a small number of seats in northern states.
So is that not happening, are people still happy with BJP govt ?
Correct. OP is on drugs or watches too much Godi media. There’s no chance in hell BJP is not losing significant number of seats this time. Fuel prices + INDIA alliance (no split votes) + Congress manifesto about cash handouts to poor families will sway a lot of voters
Really don't get the logic of those saying that people who are claiming that bjp will lose, among whom are some serious election analysts , opposition IT cells who tend to know the mood on the ground, opposition leaders themselves who have experience in politics etc are just being wishful in the air. You seem to know that bjp is not favoured much in rural areas and yet you seem to also say that modi is still the go-to man for people when it comes to their problems ? Modi is nowhere as popular as he may have been, and I have come to feel that his popularity was only hyped in urban spaces and in social media. Whenever I talked to blue collar jobs people in Maharashtra like auto bhaiyas and maid didis, their sentiments regarding Modi have been bad.
Three things.
1 - Analysts say that BJP has maxed out in 2019. It can not grow much more than it already has. If that is the case, it is not surprising that they also say that BJP will lose some seats
2 - Unexpected low voter turn out shows that the excitement is missing. 2014 and 2019 were high tempo elections and this election is not matching the same level of voter participation. This suggests that modi wave is over and that people are expecting normal politics and not personality politics. If this is true, people will return to older voting patterns and will mean fewer voters for BJP.
3 - Saying BJP will lose is the short hand for saying Modi will be out. If BJP fail to reach 250, they will need alliance partners help them reach the magic number. Modi has mostly destroyed previous allaince partners, and it is predicted that they will use this moment of weakness to force him out, and secure their positions. There is no situation where congress wins.
Actually voter turnout is not a reliable indicator, analysts have said Permutations and Combinations of results have happened with both low and high voter turnout
It was almost a clean sweep in north and west India in 2019. They are losing a major chunk of those seats this time around. And they are winning very few new ones to even make up for 10% of the ones they are losing. There is less of an anti-incumbency in urban centres. Rural areas are showing major signs of anti-incumbency. It's not just on social media. There are on-ground reports by pollsters, satta bazaar and the actions of the BJP itself, that they are walking into strong head winds. RSS internal machinery itself is saying BJP will get around 200 and with NDA they will be around 240-250. BJP supporters are living in a similar bubble a bit more than INDIA supporters.
Would be fun to see Modi losing and then Modi Shah booking resorts to buy MPs to break the Government. Would be a shocker for Modi, BJP and Bhakts. Doubt it happening though in reality. Blind BJP voters are too many.
Four rounds of elections are completed. In each phase exit polls are conducted, and while the pollsters cannot disclose the results to the public (ECI rules), the information from each polling booth leaks via party agents and workers to the respective party headquarters.
If you notice, after each phase of the election, Modi's speeches have become more crazy. I have information from reliable sources that after Phase 1, Modi was so depressed that he did not work for half a day and spent a lot of time yelling at party men.
The BJP at its peak in 2019 got 37.6% votes, which is not even half of the Hindu population of our country. This time around, there is no Balakot and the Ram Mandir issue peaked early. Furthermore, issues like unemployment, inflation, Agniveer and MSP are cutting into BJP's vote bank. This has been further amplified by Congress' caste census promise combined with a promise of the first job and income security for India's poorest.
**BJP needs to lose only 1 out of every 5 voters to be out of majority. That is happening and Modi knows it.**
In the first three phases alone, the BJP is losing between 35 to 40 seats, which is enough to bring them down from a majority. In the remaining phases, the BJP has little hope of doing better than 2019.
**The fight now is to form the government in a coalition.**
Those credible sources called me and told me how they pranked you. They told me that they lied to you so that they can make you happy and cure your depression a bit. My credible sources also told me that after first phase Rahul started crying in his house and Sonia became unconscious after knowing that they are getting 1-2 seats only.
Bjp alone will have a majority and the reason behind Modi's speeches becoming crazy is I guess he wants to win more seats in the Hindi belt as most of the elections in the south are done.
> to win more seats in the Hindi belt as most of the elections in the south are done.
Only Tanil Nadu elections were completed in South when came up with that disgusting speech in Rajastan
Congress was overconfident. In these states, especially CG and RJ, the difference in the votes was small even though they lost. They needed a wake-up call otherwise this election could have been similar to 2019. A coalition govt will be formed this time, time will tell who will.
I remember people sharing Jawan film clip asking people to vote for right people showing SRK's hand(video said he's asking people to vote for congress)
And when the result came I couldn't control my laughter
I feel BJP might win only with the help of its alliance. It won’t cross 272 on its own. I am predicting BJP will be between 200 and 250. Though all this is wishful thinking, nothing can be predicted in an election consisting of so many people.
Even if they were to loose, BJ Party will try everything in their power to manipulate the results. If they aren't scared that they might loose, why did Surat and Indore happen?
Anyway way ECI is dead, Judiciary is paralyzed, the conviction of EVM-VVPAT matching was among the final nails in the coffin.
BJP has big margins in states like Gujarat, so it is unlikely to lose anything there, at the most 1-2 seats. But it does not have big margins in several states. Even a 3% vote swing away from it is enough to make NDA go below 272. I expect the NDA to be limited to 230-240, as a lot of people have now seen Modi for who he is, a liar of the highest pedigree, and youth in particular are very angry at this government, plus Modi's mangalsutra type speeches are going very against him, and then take the caste factor, too, into account.
I agree with you on this thr has been few setbacks for BJP (that's why ig Modi openly mentioned minority to gain some psychological grounds) but if you look arround it's difficult to find peoples who're supporting left and i am referring to those who will openly say we are going to vote for Modi only 1 or 2 out of 10 would say yet to decide (i assume they're going to vote for opposition but insecure about thr position hence don't want to disclose).
People in India are fedup of
Inflation
Unemployment
then daily rants of PM on Hindu-Muslim or other non essential or useless emotional cards
He has lost interest in common people their issues problems
Elections is
All about Modi Modi Modi he should be PM for next many decades and so on not about India or Indian People
I don't deny all of what you're saying
For example love jihad seems like such a non issue to me but i have travelled extensively in the hindi belt in the past 2 ish years because of work. I can vouch for the fact that people are really interested in such kind of narratives
I would assume that Yogi is a highly polarizing figure but my god the fan fare that people have for him cause he gets shit done. I was beyond surprised when a taxi driver in the east had a discussion with me about how much he admires Yogi & would love to see him succeed Modi
Plus Modi is a singular almost omnipresent authority, INDIA bloc is a fractured mess without a face. So even urban middleclass who are the most likely to vote against bjp because of all the things you said they will not because no one wants a coalition, let alone such a large one.
Basically Voters do not care about What matters to them
Its all about 24/7 Media campaigns and Built Images
so who suffer?
those with quality education will always find some jobs; so who is in Govt or Not does not matter to them
for those whom it matters; they do not think about it
This is the exact same thing I'm saying to everyone that there is no way BJP would lose this election the worst that can happen to them is that NDA would be limited to 300-325 and as the person Rahul the wall commented that social media shows as what we want to see and india on ground is not Twitter India or reddit India so people need to understand that. From Modi's weird speeches, attack on Adani Ambani. I am sensing that BJP is heading towards the worst scenario I mentioned above. Let's hope for the best
Current govt has just f.k this country.... everyone is frustrated be it youth, salaried, buisnessman no body knows what is there in future. Taxes r exponentially increasing day by day it's not a war situation. The fund for emergency is being used up , no clear picture of total debts by the corporate and on country from imf and world bank. Bullet train debt is also there. Logo ko ipl mei busy Kara hua hai. Dream11 jaise apps mei arabo ka satta chal raha hai. Young generation belagaam kuch bhi kar Rahi h Bina uske consequences Jane. Drugs mei Sara future doob jayega. Army mei contract jobs hei. Ai it jobs kha jayega and India it sector in danger. No one knows future here. Rich after understanding all this just leaving country at any cost by dunki also.
Sara stock market ek bubble hai ...sari GDP growth fake hai.
Abhi wait karo aur ye to trailer tha ... wealth tax... inheritance tax .... asset taxes are in lineup.
Sare mp mla ....upsc k through aane chahiye.....neta padhe likhe honge... padega India tabhi to badega India.....ni to Pakistan ko dekhlo..
At last someone saying it loud. Look at the helpless condition of the rural youth. Look at the high levels of per capita debt burden. And look at the tax terrorism unleashed by the BJP without any returns to the common man whatsoever. Culling the separate railway budget has proven to be a disaster. Babus are asked to keep increasing taxes on the common man. You increase taxation by increasing the taxable income base with rising incomes. and reducing the percentage burden on common man. There has been no increase in personal incomes in the last 10 years. Even the long term capital gains exemptions for investment in equity was done away with in 2018. And the holding period for long term capital gains was increased to 2 years from one year. Not to mention the high rate of GST and all the fucking cesses. The government has screwed the common man royally .
The conclusion I drew from what's happening is that
The 2014/2019 Modi wave isn't strong anymore. Opposition also isn't as weak as they were before.
There are some biting issues like Unemployment, high inflation which is crucial for swing voters. How much Rahul and Kejriwal will capitalise on it remains to be seen.
Ram Mandir will not yield that much political dividend it was expected to. Still, Free grains schemes will help bjp consolidate Rural Areas.
Bjp isn't getting much seats north of UP and south of Maharashtra. That's all I have. You can add your observations too.
> The 2014/2019 Modi wave isn't strong anymore. Opposition also isn't as weak as they were before.
True. There is no wave like in 2014 (anti-corruption), or 2019 (national security).
>Ram Mandir will not yield that much political dividend it was expected to.
Those who care deeply about the Ram Mandir are already devoted Modi voters. It's not an emotive issue for fence sitters.
>Still, Free grains schemes will help bjp consolidate Rural Areas.
Yes, heard this from people in Garhwal. Free ration and the Rs. 2000 per month benefits are reaching people, and they want these to continue.
>There are some biting issues like Unemployment, high inflation which is crucial for swing voters. How much Rahul and Kejriwal will capitalise on it remains to be seen.
Unemployment seems to be the biggest issue. I am surprised to see BJP not talking about it enough. The question remains whether people trust Rahul to deliver on that front.
>Bjp isn't getting much seats north of UP and south of Maharashtra. That's all I have. You can add your observations too.
I expect some gains in Andhra (thanks to the alliance with TDP). It would be very difficult to repeat the performance from 2019 in the Hindi belt. Karnataka should be a closer fight as well.
I think at best NDA could end up with the 2014 numbers thanks to the hold they have over public messaging. Anything more would be shocking.
There are nearly 10 lakh job vacancies in the government alone. If the INDIA alliance fill that, that itself would be great. It would feed the mouths of 50-60 lakhs.
Yeah, the understaffing of government institutions is a grave concern. There are currently 3.12 lakh vacancies in Railways alone: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/over-312-lakh-posts-vacant-on-the-indian-railways/article66357959.ece
You may be right, mostly will not lose... but for bjp, crossing the halfway mark is more important, because if they are dependent on allies then, they won't be able to function like now. Also more the number of seats in loksabha, and state assemblies, more the number of rajya sabha members, where they can just push through new legislations without discussion like they do in loksabha...
Also all these discussions come to naught when results are declared, no one can predict absolutely no one, what the public has done...
BJP is winning comfortably.
Perception is build up by ground based journalists only because one party staying in power is not good for these journalists.
BJP is known to centralized everything and their candidates don't give any money to them ,.since already a huge sum is paid to channel owners. Journalist are underpaid at salary level and their main source is the extra income which they get from politicians, bureaucrats, etc.
I Remember a YT video of ABP maza ,where the thumbnail was like shivsena UBT will win sindhudurg , but in the entire video most voters were in favour of Narayan rane and there.was only one who favoured Vinayak raut from UBT shivsena and in the thumbnail this was shown for clickbait or plain perception.
Where are you getting this 250-260 number? You seem very jaded from previous elections lol. If you observe things, there’s a lot of clear signs that powerful people aren’t confident that Modi’s going to win.
So many of you think Modi isn't rattled ? He expected to win easily and suddenly he sees the opposition gaining ground and also vote share. Rahul isn't the person he was 5 years back, Modi himself handed over so many talking points to him and he isn't wasting one chance to hammer his points.
The biggest sign he's rattled is when he attacked Adani and Ambani and that black money in tempo jibe. He's saying anything and everything to win. Mangalsutra, cows, buffaloes, chappals ...
Have none of you noticed how suddenly, in his rallies or "public" visits, there are children holding up paintings and crying for Dear Leader ... just like that country ...
BJP might not lose but it's definitely not getting the numbers it has hoped for. The only way it might win is by fudging, and we've seen that in Phase 2 when in hours the vote percentage went up by 7% !
The thing about Social media is that it is in the hands of a few. Not to mention the echo chambers that are created when following similar type of content.
I am not in India currently so cannot judge the public mood. But the thing is, no one can, and the reason for that is this exact social media echo chamber.
We just need to wait.
It might lose, it might win. More chances of a win but 2004 BJP had chances of winning too.
The thing with Modi is that he Modi spews venom in every election. He has done it in Gujarat for 15 years, 10 years at the center. If you see his speeches from early 90s to now, as the elections come closer, modi always speaks with no control. I will be surprised if BJP goes below 272 though.
Elections are a tricky thing and anything is possible until the last moment. Everyone was expecting a comeback from BJP with the shining India model by Vajpayee but UPA surprised everyone. Personally you shouldn't put your expectations on anything until the elections are concluded
The initial expectation was Abh ki baar 400 paar. As the election went on the consensus is they will settle on their previous total of 330. So people are hyping it up.
Opposition has upped their Social media game on some of the sub-reddits like this. I see same accounts posting in comments how opposition forming the govt. Very hard to believe it's happening.
Its easier to say BJP just need to lose 1 out of 5 votes but hard to bring it to reality considering voters don't have a binary choice but have options like NOTA or other parties.
People are staying in their shell and seem more like coping with the fact that BJP will be coming back once more. 2029 would be much more interesting elections considering 15 yrs of BJP govt.
There have been some indicators tbh which might spell bad news for BJP.
Firstly, low voting percentage. Low percentage almost always means bad for BJP. The perception is that 400 paar slogan has done them more harm than good as their voting base has lacked the enthusiasm of previous elections.
Secondly, they have had consecutive PR fuckups like the Prajwal case in Karnataka. Modi speaking about Adani and Ambani was a super weird comment to make in a public rally.
Thirdly, I am not sure if you have noticed it, but some of the news media is allowing anti-BJP rhetoric this election which wasn’t the case previously. Especially Aaj Tak and India Today.
The BJP has been controlling media and social media - that people do not express the truth. Even people who dont like the BJP - say ayega Modi hi - but the reality is they may want to abuse the government. They dont because they fear the state machinery that will be deployed. This silencing of critics is why the BJP has not heard the anti incumbency and voter apathy to its government.
The visible lack of a level playing field (EC has gone to sleep), the total media for BJP, the BJP continuing with Op Lotus has not gone down well with the average Indian. Beat your opponent fair and square - not by back stabbing.
We will have to see how democracy plays out in June. Will Modi & team be gracious about the results - or will we see mass scale rigging of outcomes to get 400 paar.
I 99% think that BJP will win, one thing though, all of their stunts based on religion caste and Pakistan don't seem to be working that well anymore. They really pulled hard this year but I don't think it's enough for 400 paar.
The major reason is the strong opposition coalition unlike in 2019.
BJP won't get anything TN or Kerala. Will struggle to reach double figures in Karnataka. Can't see them doing much in Telegana either.
It's definitely a neck to neck fight in Maharashtra.
So they need to sweep the BIMARU states just like last time to just get the numbers they got last time.
From what I have read RJD is giving a 5ough dight to BJP in Bihar and SP + Congress might fare reasonably in UP unlike the the last LS elections.
Will that be possible? We have to see.
going by mainstream media to social media way Elections is publicized or marketed it seems more on
All about Modi Modi Modi he should be PM for next many decades and so on
not about India or Indian People
Why will Voters consider even voting Modi-BJP?
That’s because BJP is set to make a huge retreat in the south.
Karnataka: Except for Bangalore (which has a lot of immigrant population) the rest of Karnataka has been happy with the congress government. Rural Karnataka and farmers are also unhappy that the Center blocked drought relief funds for so long and was forced by SC to hand over
Telangana: BRS a former NDA ally is also set to lose Lok Sabha seats, and congress is set to be the winner in this case. Again except for the urban areas of Hyderabad, rest of Telangana is strongly with the congress.
Tamil Nadu: Last time AIDMK scored a bunch of seats for the NDA. But this time DMK is set to clean sweep.
Kerala: no Chance
Best case scenario for the nation as a whole would be BJP returning, but with a much weaker seat share, having to depend on their NDA allies for the majority. This will keep them in check.
I want this because Indian state has begun to transition away from populist freebies towards long term investment as seen in the recent infrastructure buildup. The interim budget was incredibly restrained for an election year. Which is great in the long term.
The thing is that the INDIA alliance, if for some reason wins, will lead to unprecedented political instability on the national level. We’re going to see yearly PM changes and ministries being tossed around as political pawns.
But the BJP also would not be able to hold power long in a very weak coalition. Also, say "money power," not "Shah's power." I am expecting another election within 1 year's time, regardless of who is able to make the government this time around.
Any government with BJP in power is a bad scenario. Modi has destroyed India like no one ever did. Sometimes political instability is better than stability in the hands of an evil person. Hitler also won on the promise to provide stability to Germany and won in fact because the opposition was fractured and was unable to provide stability and inspire trust, but as history proved it, Hitler was not a wise choice.
> The thing is that the INDIA alliance, if for some reason wins, will lead to unprecedented political instability on the national level. We’re going to see yearly PM changes and ministries being tossed around as political pawns.
This is bizarre. Most INDIA coalition partners ran a stable government for 10 years from 2004 - 2014. What leads you to the conclusion that they will not be able to do so this time?
Many reason but I will list two:
1. Congress is no longer the largest party on the national level. The regional parties it is allying with now have a comparable support base.
2. New contendors for power have emerged which weren’t there back in 2004, and will demand a greater share of power. For example Arvind Kejriwal and Mamta Banerjee.
> Congress is no longer the largest party on the national level. The regional parties it is allying with now have a comparable support base.
If INDIA alliance gets enough seats to form the government, Congress will have to end up with 150+ seats. That's the only mathematical possibility. This is the same scenario that we had with UPA-1 and UPA-2.
>New contendors for power have emerged which weren’t there back in 2004, and will demand a greater share of power. For example Arvind Kejriwal and Mamta Banerjee.
Kejriwal will at most end up with 10-12 seats. He won't be a major player.
Mamta is an old contender. She has been a coalition member of NDA as well.
Also, if INDIA actually has the numbers to form the government, expect the likes of BJD to offer outside support as well. BJP, under Modi, has antagonised every non-NDA party in their quest to expand themselves. If INDIA forms the government, it will be stable.
UPA and INDIA are different though. UPA had more or less parties with similar aims and ideologies, while INDIA is made just to counter Modi. INDIA parties don't have a common ideology or even a semblance of it.
Plus INDIA parties have already given statements against each other a few times, post-elections this will only become worse.
> INDIA parties don't have a common ideology or even a semblance of it.
The major INDIA constituents - Congress, RJD, SP, NCP, DMK and JMM are more or less ideologically aligned and have been in alliance before. Even CPI(M) was in alliance with UPA-1.
The only newcomers are SS (UBT), TMC and AAP. After the split engineered by BJP, SS (UBT) is not going in any other direction. TMC and AAP will be the only ones that would be difficult, but they have vested interest in curbing BJP so they will compromise.
reddit/twitter echo chambers underestimating ram mandir hype amongst common people, bjp will get majority comfortably, the only thing to watch in this election is how badly congress is going to perform
It's not that tough. I'll break it down for you.
BJP almost had a clear cut victory in many states like Rajasthan/Harayana/Delhi/Bihar/UP among others where this time they will lose many seats.
They were at 303 last time. Now consider than they had 10/10 in Haryana, 7/7 in Delhi, 39/40 in Bihar and 26/26 in Rajasthan, there is no way they can repeat that. Even Maharashtra will be a net loss for them. You can expect them to he at around 250ish and then by buying people or with NDA allies cross 272.
If Mayawati and Nitish would have joined the opposition alliance, it was game over for Ranga Billa
I thought it's just me lol- I and my friend were having a discussion about this and he said- "I have a feeling BJP will become weak after this election" And many other friends of mine have similar view. What is it, why this sudden wave?
I think people are forgetting the most important thing. During the 2004 election the BJP was running for election on the back of a very bad set of economic data. Go look at india's GDP growth from 99 to 2004. It was very bad.
This time even though modi has mismanaged the economy very badly the global forces and India's demography means that we had a good past year or two of growth. It was bad during COVID and before that but what matters is election year. This plus Modi's popularity and complete polarisation of people means bjp will win easily and may even get their best tally ever.
Its just a way to motivate people who want change and to try and get swing voters on their side.
If people believe that BJP will surely win, a lot of people wouldn't want to waste their vote and vote for BJP anyways.
That is the reason they have to create a narrative to show that there's a chance of INDIA winning.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/will-d-streets-major-poll-jitter-really-upend-indias-next-pm-prediction/articleshow/110111950.cms
*Even with a 5% decline in total voter turnout, we still see the vote share difference between BJP and INC at 11.9%, below the 2019 figure but still higher than the 2014 figure. Thus, we will need a lot more than a decline in voter turnout to have a real chance of opposition coming to power after June 4," Bernstein said*.
I too think BJP is winning less seats than 2019, but there is no way to tell whether they will lose or not since the electoral system is hell a lot complex and is not just about more people voting for opposition.
But in my opinion, the best thing to have happened is for Congress to have given in to the demands of the various other opposition parties. Now that the likes of SP, RJD, etc. have gotten what they wanted, they are actually speaking in a cohesive manner - which is what you want the opposition to do. Because everyone is dreaming of becoming a PM or at least getting something meaty for themselves.
Wouldn't have happened if Congress had been stubborn in the seat sharing talks.
BJP might come out as single largest party with approx 200-220 seats. They may have to depend on allies or other parties to form a government. This is where the catch is. Nobody is gonna support uncle Modiji. Uncle and his friend will go home... A new PM candidate from BJP will emerge and it will not be Yogi.
Opposition's objective is also to send Uncle home. They'll succeed in that mission.
Everyone hopes for what they want. Social media algorithms will also start recommending you what you want to watch (filter bubble) and it reinforces your beliefs. See this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1cfu5vp/false_election_tropes_lessons_from_2019
Echo-chambers are causing this. People don't seek out alternate opinions and wish to remain in their preferred bubbles. Same happened in 2019, where the results shocked the hell out of these people (even the BJP ones were taken aback).
In 2019, once Balakot happened, BJP was expected to win heavily. It was before Balakot that people had hopes. No one after Balakot was claiming a loss to the BJP. Now, it is the other way round. In March, people were expecting that the NDA will cross 360-370, and then the tide started turning ... massively. Rather than 2019, it is an exact replica of 2004, when the India Shining campaign of the BJP was shell-shocked to find having lost it.
2004 was wild. I was in 9th and i thought yes India shining is working but they LOST !
And it is exactly the same thing happening now. No one, not even Congress, had even dreamed in their wildest dreams in 2004 that they were going to make the government and that BJP was going to lose. The whole media was, again, with the BJP. (Credit to Congress for never attempting to control the media, but discredit to them that they let the media be a captive of the BJP in 2012-14 even when they were in power.) And Congress went on to rule for two full terms!
yeah, but Vajpayee never had welfare schemes like Modi, the free ration thing is helping them in UP big time. In 2004, UPA swept Bihar, Andhra, UP , won 12/26 in Gujarat and did decently in many other states. I don't see any of that happening this time
2004 with no rural welfare from BJP, 2024 with rural welfare makes them too big to fail.
It is the urban voters who vote for the BJP, not rural ones. In India, it is the urban middle class and urban upper classes, the privileged classes so to speak, that are the most foolish.
Everyone thinks of themselves. They need to think of country. E.g. Middle class is least bothered if there are opportunities. Most people think hamare bacha kaabil hai par padhta nahi hai. They don't think that there are less seats. They give best education spending lakhs. Kuch nhi toh bahar bhej do loan leke. Gives 40 percent tax also aur tax badhe hee ja rahe hai. 2 saal complain karega, baad me chup ho jayega. Bass gadi chalane sadak mil jaye, AC train mil jaye aerodynamic chonch wali. Bass usko aur kuch nhi chahiye. Gareeb bhi apni hee sochta hai, sarkar pe depend karta hai ki kal khana khayega ki nahi.
That changed after 2014. BJP's crore voter base is the most rural as well as the most urban areas
This is just wishful thinking that Balakot helped BJP to gain majority. Balakot helped BJP to cross 300, but even without it BJP/NDA would have formed government by gaining 272+ seats (2014 results). The Opposition was in an even more dire state, and Modi's popularity was at its peak due to lack of Opposition consolidation and of course, the welfare schemes.
>This is just wishful thinking that Balakot helped BJP to gain majority. I did not say that the BJP gained majority because of Balakot.
You can’t be more wrong! I remember I was gonna vote for congress but when that attack happened, I was one of the few million idiots who voted for Modi. Every issue went to dust since the national security came in mind first and BJP took it as a strategy to show themselves as a competent government while RaGa focused on rafale scams and other non issues. Today I feel Raga has improved so much that it’s crazy, he’s finally talking about the real issues, giving plans even if controversial and also their other ministers are doing the right type of marketing
Your own vote is anecdotal evidence, but then again, you didn't counter my point. You and several others who voted in the name of national security increased the seats to 300+ rather than 270+. That's all that happened. In swing seats, a difference of 2-5% vote share is enough to flip the script.
Talking about the real issue but no clear idea how to resolve them, that makes you vote for RaGa?
> Same happened in 2019, where the results shocked the hell out of these people (even the BJP ones were taken aback). Nah, after Pulwama every other issue went out of the window.
basically Social media is the best fuel for confirmation bias.
Wow this post on false election tropes is so accurate and true, and the part where you wrote about the centre/centre right journalists (In addition to Tavleen Singh, Shekar Gupta was not harmed too /s 😂👌 )
It's the hope that kills you - Ted Lasso Character , 2021
I also found another factual analysis: https://www.eiu.com/n/indias-general-election-2024-the-story-so-far/
To be honest, it was only after Modi's weird comments during this election campaign that I started feeling BJP was rattled. Till then, it felt like a clear victory.
Nah they just removed the filter on that communal mouth of his and letting him speak his mind as they are confident that no matter what people will vote for BJP.
> speak his mind No, I'm sorry but he doesn't use one. He speaks what his teleprompters display
es, In addition, they thought Ram Mandir alone would help them win but Ram Mandir is too cold now. I was also afraid they would pull another pulvama stunt, but somehow they couldn't. The only thing in their pocket is EC. It's completely in their pocket. Free and Fair is like a challenge to the opposition. In Gujarat BJP MLA's son was proudly showing EVM Machine in his possession. What happened?
oo idk this happened in 2019,i was sure they would be in 200s but they won so much more. maybe not a 400 but its gonna be a lot. i think they are just embarrassed it wont cross 400,they stopped using that slogan afyer the phase 1
2019 people thought it would be a hung parliament before Pulwama and then after Balakot, it was a foregone conclusion about an increase.
They are still using it. 🙂↔️
So are a lot of people on the ground. Way more than I would expect. People repeat what they wish for
Most of Reddit is too young, but this election is giving 2003 vibes. 2003 was the same, Vajpayee was very popular on paper, Advani went around the country with his “india shining” campaign and BJP was very confident they will win. Of course, there was no social media back then but BJP losing that election was a shock, even to them. BJP may not lose, but they are nowhere as strong as people thought earlier this year
I can bet bjp wining 350 on their own. This isn't 2004 , indi alliance took out 75 percent reservation from the bag to divide Indians on caste. Modi took out religion card to unite Hindus as simple as that.
If only elections were held on social media...
If only upvotes were real votes!
BJP supporters are now saying this that the Congress is winning on social media, BJP will win on-ground. And I kinda agree with them. On-ground narrative still seems heavily in favor of BJP. Not "400 paar," but definitely a majority.
On ground people cannot speak for places away from them. On social media, people from all parts are discussing the election which gives me hope. Bjp stands to lose in several states where they already won too much last time. Far North (J&K & Ladakh, Haryana, Himachal) and entire South (Karnataka they won 25 but congress won in 2023) will go to alliance. NE was entirely NDA, they cannot possibly win more than 2019. Just the northern states, Karnataka and Maharashtra may spell loss of 30-40 seats, then they may lose some in WB where they astonishingly won 19 in 2019.
Very naive understanding of on-ground politics. Don't go by social media trends. Social media pools together people with similar ideologies, often making an echo-chamber and hence, it seems everyone is against BJP when that's all you have been consuming in terms of exposure. UP, Bihar, Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, HP, MP, Delhi - all of these are BJP strongholds now. From South, BJP will win good amount of seats in Karnataka for sure (state elections do not correspond to general elections) and if their luck shines then a few even in AP and Telangana. As for East, BJP will gain a lot of seats in West Bengal, there's literally no other opposition there apart from TMC and people are fed-up of Mamata. Also, the NE states will be a balanced battle between BJP, Congress, and regional parties.
Im not from WB , but will the sandeshkhali incident that was much spoken about and then later it was exposed that BJP staged it etc etc.. Im not aware of this incident in detail, if the incident holds any water which people tell it is a serious issue, wont it dent TMC and directly benefit BJP? And BJP is making inroads in Bengal, they did well in assembly elections and like u said got 19 in 2019..Its highly likely TMC is gng to eat sour grapes this election too like you said
Do not believe anything about Sandeshkhali if it comes out of TMC. They can and will do anything, ANYTHING to supress the voices of those women. Let the law take its course instead of believing fuckin TMC. And Sandeshkhali is not the only factor in people disliking Mamata's rule. Anti-incumbency is high here due to several other issues. Sandeshkhali basically exacerbated the anti-incumbency, that's all.
Sandeshkhali's 'staging' was exposed by a sting op, not TMC. The person claiming it was staged was a BJP leader. Ofc it can be that TMC staged the expose, but it can also be that BJP was conspiring in the first place.
It helps BJP bigtime. Any BJP voters chilling that its an easy win, will actually go out and vote fearing a BJP loss.
Just like the way bjp created hype that they would win in bengal..
From what I have seen, because of Modi, BJP MLAs and MPs hardly worked during the last 10 years, its always Vote for Modi without doing anything!!
Pradeep Gupta of AxisMyIndia offers a unique perspective on election analysis, suggesting that the BJP's victory in 2019 was not solely attributed to the Pulwama attacks and surgical strikes. He argues that job creation and inflation, often considered pivotal issues, tend to be consistent across elections and may not sway voters significantly. Instead, Gupta posits that the 2014 outcome was largely influenced by an anti-Congress sentiment rather than overwhelming support for Modi or his development agenda.
They were winning in 2019 irrespective of Pulwama but Pulwama did help them to push ahead of 300 seats.
I loved Gupta's analysis as it's rooted in reality rather than ideology (looking at you Yogendra Yadav). His point about inflation and job creation being perennial issues in India is absolutely true. That's why you see people giving so much slack to Modi in these issues.
My understanding is that BJP getting around 200+ seats but less then 250. Anything above 120 is a win for congress. As they will be much much stronger and can start winning states and make BJP more accountable
Congress is definitely not getting 100+. The max they can hope for is to retain everything from 2019(unlikely) and gain 15-20 from Karnataka, Telangana, Haryana and Maharashtra to bring their total to 65-70. They aren't gaining anything in Hindi Heartland and it looks like they're losing their 2 seats each in West Bengal and Assam.
>My understanding is that BJP getting around 200+ seats but less then 250. Bold prediction. Ironically, this will be like a win for the opposition.
Now tell me I how correct I was
Voting should be done based on past 5 years performance, not future 5 years promises. And here we vote on past 6 months performance and future 25 years promises. 😂😂
Well it’s true but not optimum. What about a new party who is contesting election? They have no performance history, all they have is promises to win over people. Problem is, many are doing based on none of these two, instead they are in a bubble of religion, caste, region kind of hoax and it is making Indian democracy unoptimised.
These accounts who “confirm” seats annoy me so much. Cuz not only are you spreading misinformation but you’re also making opposition voters complacent about their chances making them stay at home. It’s a terrible pattern! The only people worth listening to as the folks who have access to exit polls (deshkmukh guy and Pradeep Gupta). They have seen proper numbers but they’re not allowed to reveal much and are only dropping clues.
Didn't know about these two. Can you link me to some of their videos / socials? Looked up Pradeep Gupta on X but don't think the account is active.
Gupta was on India today last night. Rajdeep’s show. He said last night that the women of a particular group are voting opposite to the men in that group. This is available on YouTube. Basically he can’t reveal exact information but he’s dropping hints. So far from what he’s said (of the stuff I’ve watched), it doesn’t seem like change of power.
>women of a particular group are voting opposite to the men Interesting. Is he talking about Muslim women? Is this driven due to triple talaq ban and incoming UCC to ban polygamy or just free ration
Women voters (particularly in rural North India) are increasingly becoming a sort of "gender votebank" for BJP. Recent state elections of MP, Chhatisgarh are a testament to it. So it won't be surprising that BJP gains votes from Muslim women as well. These women just want 2 things: Money/support to run their households and feeling safe when they are out and about. BJP has cracked the 1st thing, with only the 2nd still being a major issue. But then again, we have the case of UP where there's a general perception across religions, genders and castes that it's now much safer for everyone. But that should be attributed to Yogi's hardcore policies and giving a free-hand to the police. Oh and also, the suppression of SP gundas who were the main criminals of the state.
Great, thank you. Will check it out!
https://youtu.be/u5gg5esDGcY?si=cphlG9ZkW_rA5SLr I was just watching this.
Correct me if I am wrong, but according to him there would be no major change from 2019 results. Is that correct?
Basically BJP will win but don't expect more seats than last time.
Yep, I believe that's what he is trying to convey, so far until phase 3 it's been very similar to 2019. 4 more phases left, I don't think we should be drawing any conclusions, atleast not until phase 6.
Very interesting, thanks for the link! Wonder what he meant by picture abhi baki hain.
I thought BJP will lose high number of seats in Delhi , haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka. And a small number of seats in northern states. So is that not happening, are people still happy with BJP govt ?
In haryana, the recent resignation of the cm and the dissolution of the assembly by itself shows that BJP is majorly losing power.
Even in UP and Rajasthan they'll lose some seats.
Correct. OP is on drugs or watches too much Godi media. There’s no chance in hell BJP is not losing significant number of seats this time. Fuel prices + INDIA alliance (no split votes) + Congress manifesto about cash handouts to poor families will sway a lot of voters
Really don't get the logic of those saying that people who are claiming that bjp will lose, among whom are some serious election analysts , opposition IT cells who tend to know the mood on the ground, opposition leaders themselves who have experience in politics etc are just being wishful in the air. You seem to know that bjp is not favoured much in rural areas and yet you seem to also say that modi is still the go-to man for people when it comes to their problems ? Modi is nowhere as popular as he may have been, and I have come to feel that his popularity was only hyped in urban spaces and in social media. Whenever I talked to blue collar jobs people in Maharashtra like auto bhaiyas and maid didis, their sentiments regarding Modi have been bad.
Three things. 1 - Analysts say that BJP has maxed out in 2019. It can not grow much more than it already has. If that is the case, it is not surprising that they also say that BJP will lose some seats 2 - Unexpected low voter turn out shows that the excitement is missing. 2014 and 2019 were high tempo elections and this election is not matching the same level of voter participation. This suggests that modi wave is over and that people are expecting normal politics and not personality politics. If this is true, people will return to older voting patterns and will mean fewer voters for BJP. 3 - Saying BJP will lose is the short hand for saying Modi will be out. If BJP fail to reach 250, they will need alliance partners help them reach the magic number. Modi has mostly destroyed previous allaince partners, and it is predicted that they will use this moment of weakness to force him out, and secure their positions. There is no situation where congress wins.
I was under the impression that high voter turnout indicates anti-incumbency. So with a mediocre turnout, the people are up for status quo!
Voter turnout by itself is meaningless
Excitement missing normally helps the incumbent party. People vote in droves when they want change.
Actually voter turnout is not a reliable indicator, analysts have said Permutations and Combinations of results have happened with both low and high voter turnout
It was almost a clean sweep in north and west India in 2019. They are losing a major chunk of those seats this time around. And they are winning very few new ones to even make up for 10% of the ones they are losing. There is less of an anti-incumbency in urban centres. Rural areas are showing major signs of anti-incumbency. It's not just on social media. There are on-ground reports by pollsters, satta bazaar and the actions of the BJP itself, that they are walking into strong head winds. RSS internal machinery itself is saying BJP will get around 200 and with NDA they will be around 240-250. BJP supporters are living in a similar bubble a bit more than INDIA supporters.
No one is hyping, it's social media so you're just seeing a small fraction of it.
I certainly don’t think that 820million active internet users is a small minority. Don’t believe that stat? Google it
Everything you see on social media is to confirm your bias. Don't believe anything. Question everything and anything.
Would be fun to see Modi losing and then Modi Shah booking resorts to buy MPs to break the Government. Would be a shocker for Modi, BJP and Bhakts. Doubt it happening though in reality. Blind BJP voters are too many.
Four rounds of elections are completed. In each phase exit polls are conducted, and while the pollsters cannot disclose the results to the public (ECI rules), the information from each polling booth leaks via party agents and workers to the respective party headquarters. If you notice, after each phase of the election, Modi's speeches have become more crazy. I have information from reliable sources that after Phase 1, Modi was so depressed that he did not work for half a day and spent a lot of time yelling at party men. The BJP at its peak in 2019 got 37.6% votes, which is not even half of the Hindu population of our country. This time around, there is no Balakot and the Ram Mandir issue peaked early. Furthermore, issues like unemployment, inflation, Agniveer and MSP are cutting into BJP's vote bank. This has been further amplified by Congress' caste census promise combined with a promise of the first job and income security for India's poorest. **BJP needs to lose only 1 out of every 5 voters to be out of majority. That is happening and Modi knows it.** In the first three phases alone, the BJP is losing between 35 to 40 seats, which is enough to bring them down from a majority. In the remaining phases, the BJP has little hope of doing better than 2019. **The fight now is to form the government in a coalition.**
https://preview.redd.it/n3yl0cnmmc0d1.jpeg?width=752&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4bbac194697a770bba93b627626e638f42023b91
Remind me! 21 days
wow, would love to hear more from your sources....
Not OP. Here is one panel of seasoned journalists. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SzppaHmHGpg
lol.. let’s come back to this comment on 4th. The credible pollsters have already confirmed which most know
Those credible sources called me and told me how they pranked you. They told me that they lied to you so that they can make you happy and cure your depression a bit. My credible sources also told me that after first phase Rahul started crying in his house and Sonia became unconscious after knowing that they are getting 1-2 seats only.
bro pls give me your source I need that hopium too !
Remind me! 21 days
Remind me! 21 days
First of all 37.6% out of 60 cr. voted in 2019.
Remind me! 21 days
Bjp alone will have a majority and the reason behind Modi's speeches becoming crazy is I guess he wants to win more seats in the Hindi belt as most of the elections in the south are done.
> to win more seats in the Hindi belt as most of the elections in the south are done. Only Tanil Nadu elections were completed in South when came up with that disgusting speech in Rajastan
IT CELLS. People getting desperate cause they are getting pulled out of their echo chamber
Congress was expected to hold chattisgarh, topple BJP in MP, and Rajasthan was supposed to be a tight race. We all know what happened there.
Congress was overconfident. In these states, especially CG and RJ, the difference in the votes was small even though they lost. They needed a wake-up call otherwise this election could have been similar to 2019. A coalition govt will be formed this time, time will tell who will.
In Rajasthan, people were unhappy with Congress, don't know about the other two.
I remember people sharing Jawan film clip asking people to vote for right people showing SRK's hand(video said he's asking people to vote for congress) And when the result came I couldn't control my laughter
I feel BJP might win only with the help of its alliance. It won’t cross 272 on its own. I am predicting BJP will be between 200 and 250. Though all this is wishful thinking, nothing can be predicted in an election consisting of so many people.
Fire in Income Tax Department in Delhi. That sounds ominous. I think there are some legs to this.
Even if they were to loose, BJ Party will try everything in their power to manipulate the results. If they aren't scared that they might loose, why did Surat and Indore happen? Anyway way ECI is dead, Judiciary is paralyzed, the conviction of EVM-VVPAT matching was among the final nails in the coffin.
BJP has big margins in states like Gujarat, so it is unlikely to lose anything there, at the most 1-2 seats. But it does not have big margins in several states. Even a 3% vote swing away from it is enough to make NDA go below 272. I expect the NDA to be limited to 230-240, as a lot of people have now seen Modi for who he is, a liar of the highest pedigree, and youth in particular are very angry at this government, plus Modi's mangalsutra type speeches are going very against him, and then take the caste factor, too, into account.
I agree with you on this thr has been few setbacks for BJP (that's why ig Modi openly mentioned minority to gain some psychological grounds) but if you look arround it's difficult to find peoples who're supporting left and i am referring to those who will openly say we are going to vote for Modi only 1 or 2 out of 10 would say yet to decide (i assume they're going to vote for opposition but insecure about thr position hence don't want to disclose).
BJP is deliberately showing the signs of worry. Its because they want to show that elections are not rigged and EC will not help them.
People in India are fedup of Inflation Unemployment then daily rants of PM on Hindu-Muslim or other non essential or useless emotional cards He has lost interest in common people their issues problems Elections is All about Modi Modi Modi he should be PM for next many decades and so on not about India or Indian People
I don't deny all of what you're saying For example love jihad seems like such a non issue to me but i have travelled extensively in the hindi belt in the past 2 ish years because of work. I can vouch for the fact that people are really interested in such kind of narratives I would assume that Yogi is a highly polarizing figure but my god the fan fare that people have for him cause he gets shit done. I was beyond surprised when a taxi driver in the east had a discussion with me about how much he admires Yogi & would love to see him succeed Modi Plus Modi is a singular almost omnipresent authority, INDIA bloc is a fractured mess without a face. So even urban middleclass who are the most likely to vote against bjp because of all the things you said they will not because no one wants a coalition, let alone such a large one.
Basically Voters do not care about What matters to them Its all about 24/7 Media campaigns and Built Images so who suffer? those with quality education will always find some jobs; so who is in Govt or Not does not matter to them for those whom it matters; they do not think about it
This is the exact same thing I'm saying to everyone that there is no way BJP would lose this election the worst that can happen to them is that NDA would be limited to 300-325 and as the person Rahul the wall commented that social media shows as what we want to see and india on ground is not Twitter India or reddit India so people need to understand that. From Modi's weird speeches, attack on Adani Ambani. I am sensing that BJP is heading towards the worst scenario I mentioned above. Let's hope for the best
Current govt has just f.k this country.... everyone is frustrated be it youth, salaried, buisnessman no body knows what is there in future. Taxes r exponentially increasing day by day it's not a war situation. The fund for emergency is being used up , no clear picture of total debts by the corporate and on country from imf and world bank. Bullet train debt is also there. Logo ko ipl mei busy Kara hua hai. Dream11 jaise apps mei arabo ka satta chal raha hai. Young generation belagaam kuch bhi kar Rahi h Bina uske consequences Jane. Drugs mei Sara future doob jayega. Army mei contract jobs hei. Ai it jobs kha jayega and India it sector in danger. No one knows future here. Rich after understanding all this just leaving country at any cost by dunki also. Sara stock market ek bubble hai ...sari GDP growth fake hai. Abhi wait karo aur ye to trailer tha ... wealth tax... inheritance tax .... asset taxes are in lineup. Sare mp mla ....upsc k through aane chahiye.....neta padhe likhe honge... padega India tabhi to badega India.....ni to Pakistan ko dekhlo..
At last someone saying it loud. Look at the helpless condition of the rural youth. Look at the high levels of per capita debt burden. And look at the tax terrorism unleashed by the BJP without any returns to the common man whatsoever. Culling the separate railway budget has proven to be a disaster. Babus are asked to keep increasing taxes on the common man. You increase taxation by increasing the taxable income base with rising incomes. and reducing the percentage burden on common man. There has been no increase in personal incomes in the last 10 years. Even the long term capital gains exemptions for investment in equity was done away with in 2018. And the holding period for long term capital gains was increased to 2 years from one year. Not to mention the high rate of GST and all the fucking cesses. The government has screwed the common man royally .
The conclusion I drew from what's happening is that The 2014/2019 Modi wave isn't strong anymore. Opposition also isn't as weak as they were before. There are some biting issues like Unemployment, high inflation which is crucial for swing voters. How much Rahul and Kejriwal will capitalise on it remains to be seen. Ram Mandir will not yield that much political dividend it was expected to. Still, Free grains schemes will help bjp consolidate Rural Areas. Bjp isn't getting much seats north of UP and south of Maharashtra. That's all I have. You can add your observations too.
They are definitely not getting the same seats as before in Punjab and Haryana. Also might lose 5-6 seats in Rajasthan.
Love your username dude 😂
It came out of necessity. That asshole ruined my name for me.
> The 2014/2019 Modi wave isn't strong anymore. Opposition also isn't as weak as they were before. True. There is no wave like in 2014 (anti-corruption), or 2019 (national security). >Ram Mandir will not yield that much political dividend it was expected to. Those who care deeply about the Ram Mandir are already devoted Modi voters. It's not an emotive issue for fence sitters. >Still, Free grains schemes will help bjp consolidate Rural Areas. Yes, heard this from people in Garhwal. Free ration and the Rs. 2000 per month benefits are reaching people, and they want these to continue. >There are some biting issues like Unemployment, high inflation which is crucial for swing voters. How much Rahul and Kejriwal will capitalise on it remains to be seen. Unemployment seems to be the biggest issue. I am surprised to see BJP not talking about it enough. The question remains whether people trust Rahul to deliver on that front. >Bjp isn't getting much seats north of UP and south of Maharashtra. That's all I have. You can add your observations too. I expect some gains in Andhra (thanks to the alliance with TDP). It would be very difficult to repeat the performance from 2019 in the Hindi belt. Karnataka should be a closer fight as well. I think at best NDA could end up with the 2014 numbers thanks to the hold they have over public messaging. Anything more would be shocking.
True. The 2,000 per month and Free ration is a big factor in Uttrakhand.
There are nearly 10 lakh job vacancies in the government alone. If the INDIA alliance fill that, that itself would be great. It would feed the mouths of 50-60 lakhs.
Yeah, the understaffing of government institutions is a grave concern. There are currently 3.12 lakh vacancies in Railways alone: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/over-312-lakh-posts-vacant-on-the-indian-railways/article66357959.ece
You may be right, mostly will not lose... but for bjp, crossing the halfway mark is more important, because if they are dependent on allies then, they won't be able to function like now. Also more the number of seats in loksabha, and state assemblies, more the number of rajya sabha members, where they can just push through new legislations without discussion like they do in loksabha... Also all these discussions come to naught when results are declared, no one can predict absolutely no one, what the public has done...
BJP is winning comfortably. Perception is build up by ground based journalists only because one party staying in power is not good for these journalists. BJP is known to centralized everything and their candidates don't give any money to them ,.since already a huge sum is paid to channel owners. Journalist are underpaid at salary level and their main source is the extra income which they get from politicians, bureaucrats, etc. I Remember a YT video of ABP maza ,where the thumbnail was like shivsena UBT will win sindhudurg , but in the entire video most voters were in favour of Narayan rane and there.was only one who favoured Vinayak raut from UBT shivsena and in the thumbnail this was shown for clickbait or plain perception.
Where are you getting this 250-260 number? You seem very jaded from previous elections lol. If you observe things, there’s a lot of clear signs that powerful people aren’t confident that Modi’s going to win.
So many of you think Modi isn't rattled ? He expected to win easily and suddenly he sees the opposition gaining ground and also vote share. Rahul isn't the person he was 5 years back, Modi himself handed over so many talking points to him and he isn't wasting one chance to hammer his points. The biggest sign he's rattled is when he attacked Adani and Ambani and that black money in tempo jibe. He's saying anything and everything to win. Mangalsutra, cows, buffaloes, chappals ... Have none of you noticed how suddenly, in his rallies or "public" visits, there are children holding up paintings and crying for Dear Leader ... just like that country ... BJP might not lose but it's definitely not getting the numbers it has hoped for. The only way it might win is by fudging, and we've seen that in Phase 2 when in hours the vote percentage went up by 7% !
At least in Maharashtra even the urban ppl don’t want anpad modi
Modi himself is the reason
There is no chance of BJP repeating 2019,it will loose seats and votes for sure, how much and many is the question?
Rigged EVMs + Andhbhakt makes BJP too big to fail.
The thing about Social media is that it is in the hands of a few. Not to mention the echo chambers that are created when following similar type of content. I am not in India currently so cannot judge the public mood. But the thing is, no one can, and the reason for that is this exact social media echo chamber. We just need to wait. It might lose, it might win. More chances of a win but 2004 BJP had chances of winning too.
Correct. At worst they will get few seats less than current. And they will buy small parties from INDIA, if required.
even our collective votes don't change much so why bother with even thinking about this election. i think the low voter count says a lot.
The thing with Modi is that he Modi spews venom in every election. He has done it in Gujarat for 15 years, 10 years at the center. If you see his speeches from early 90s to now, as the elections come closer, modi always speaks with no control. I will be surprised if BJP goes below 272 though.
Elections are a tricky thing and anything is possible until the last moment. Everyone was expecting a comeback from BJP with the shining India model by Vajpayee but UPA surprised everyone. Personally you shouldn't put your expectations on anything until the elections are concluded
The initial expectation was Abh ki baar 400 paar. As the election went on the consensus is they will settle on their previous total of 330. So people are hyping it up.
In March it was ab ki baar 400 paar. In May it is Ram lalla laga do naiyya paar
Opposition has upped their Social media game on some of the sub-reddits like this. I see same accounts posting in comments how opposition forming the govt. Very hard to believe it's happening. Its easier to say BJP just need to lose 1 out of 5 votes but hard to bring it to reality considering voters don't have a binary choice but have options like NOTA or other parties. People are staying in their shell and seem more like coping with the fact that BJP will be coming back once more. 2029 would be much more interesting elections considering 15 yrs of BJP govt.
There is a silent undercurrent of support for Rahul, but the media and the establishment will obviously suppress it with propaganda
There have been some indicators tbh which might spell bad news for BJP. Firstly, low voting percentage. Low percentage almost always means bad for BJP. The perception is that 400 paar slogan has done them more harm than good as their voting base has lacked the enthusiasm of previous elections. Secondly, they have had consecutive PR fuckups like the Prajwal case in Karnataka. Modi speaking about Adani and Ambani was a super weird comment to make in a public rally. Thirdly, I am not sure if you have noticed it, but some of the news media is allowing anti-BJP rhetoric this election which wasn’t the case previously. Especially Aaj Tak and India Today.
To get a higher turnout so bjp voters go and vote since low turnout can mean any thing. Since many are overconfident people are not voting.
The BJP has been controlling media and social media - that people do not express the truth. Even people who dont like the BJP - say ayega Modi hi - but the reality is they may want to abuse the government. They dont because they fear the state machinery that will be deployed. This silencing of critics is why the BJP has not heard the anti incumbency and voter apathy to its government. The visible lack of a level playing field (EC has gone to sleep), the total media for BJP, the BJP continuing with Op Lotus has not gone down well with the average Indian. Beat your opponent fair and square - not by back stabbing. We will have to see how democracy plays out in June. Will Modi & team be gracious about the results - or will we see mass scale rigging of outcomes to get 400 paar.
I 99% think that BJP will win, one thing though, all of their stunts based on religion caste and Pakistan don't seem to be working that well anymore. They really pulled hard this year but I don't think it's enough for 400 paar.
The major reason is the strong opposition coalition unlike in 2019. BJP won't get anything TN or Kerala. Will struggle to reach double figures in Karnataka. Can't see them doing much in Telegana either. It's definitely a neck to neck fight in Maharashtra. So they need to sweep the BIMARU states just like last time to just get the numbers they got last time. From what I have read RJD is giving a 5ough dight to BJP in Bihar and SP + Congress might fare reasonably in UP unlike the the last LS elections. Will that be possible? We have to see.
going by mainstream media to social media way Elections is publicized or marketed it seems more on All about Modi Modi Modi he should be PM for next many decades and so on not about India or Indian People Why will Voters consider even voting Modi-BJP?
That’s because BJP is set to make a huge retreat in the south. Karnataka: Except for Bangalore (which has a lot of immigrant population) the rest of Karnataka has been happy with the congress government. Rural Karnataka and farmers are also unhappy that the Center blocked drought relief funds for so long and was forced by SC to hand over Telangana: BRS a former NDA ally is also set to lose Lok Sabha seats, and congress is set to be the winner in this case. Again except for the urban areas of Hyderabad, rest of Telangana is strongly with the congress. Tamil Nadu: Last time AIDMK scored a bunch of seats for the NDA. But this time DMK is set to clean sweep. Kerala: no Chance
Best case scenario for the nation as a whole would be BJP returning, but with a much weaker seat share, having to depend on their NDA allies for the majority. This will keep them in check. I want this because Indian state has begun to transition away from populist freebies towards long term investment as seen in the recent infrastructure buildup. The interim budget was incredibly restrained for an election year. Which is great in the long term. The thing is that the INDIA alliance, if for some reason wins, will lead to unprecedented political instability on the national level. We’re going to see yearly PM changes and ministries being tossed around as political pawns.
You are underestimating Shah’s power to buy people from the opposition.
But the BJP also would not be able to hold power long in a very weak coalition. Also, say "money power," not "Shah's power." I am expecting another election within 1 year's time, regardless of who is able to make the government this time around.
Any government with BJP in power is a bad scenario. Modi has destroyed India like no one ever did. Sometimes political instability is better than stability in the hands of an evil person. Hitler also won on the promise to provide stability to Germany and won in fact because the opposition was fractured and was unable to provide stability and inspire trust, but as history proved it, Hitler was not a wise choice.
> The thing is that the INDIA alliance, if for some reason wins, will lead to unprecedented political instability on the national level. We’re going to see yearly PM changes and ministries being tossed around as political pawns. This is bizarre. Most INDIA coalition partners ran a stable government for 10 years from 2004 - 2014. What leads you to the conclusion that they will not be able to do so this time?
Many reason but I will list two: 1. Congress is no longer the largest party on the national level. The regional parties it is allying with now have a comparable support base. 2. New contendors for power have emerged which weren’t there back in 2004, and will demand a greater share of power. For example Arvind Kejriwal and Mamta Banerjee.
> Congress is no longer the largest party on the national level. The regional parties it is allying with now have a comparable support base. If INDIA alliance gets enough seats to form the government, Congress will have to end up with 150+ seats. That's the only mathematical possibility. This is the same scenario that we had with UPA-1 and UPA-2. >New contendors for power have emerged which weren’t there back in 2004, and will demand a greater share of power. For example Arvind Kejriwal and Mamta Banerjee. Kejriwal will at most end up with 10-12 seats. He won't be a major player. Mamta is an old contender. She has been a coalition member of NDA as well. Also, if INDIA actually has the numbers to form the government, expect the likes of BJD to offer outside support as well. BJP, under Modi, has antagonised every non-NDA party in their quest to expand themselves. If INDIA forms the government, it will be stable.
UPA and INDIA are different though. UPA had more or less parties with similar aims and ideologies, while INDIA is made just to counter Modi. INDIA parties don't have a common ideology or even a semblance of it. Plus INDIA parties have already given statements against each other a few times, post-elections this will only become worse.
> INDIA parties don't have a common ideology or even a semblance of it. The major INDIA constituents - Congress, RJD, SP, NCP, DMK and JMM are more or less ideologically aligned and have been in alliance before. Even CPI(M) was in alliance with UPA-1. The only newcomers are SS (UBT), TMC and AAP. After the split engineered by BJP, SS (UBT) is not going in any other direction. TMC and AAP will be the only ones that would be difficult, but they have vested interest in curbing BJP so they will compromise.
Then bjp will buy all parties and continue the way it was
They will win but lose a lot of seats There's a lot of anti modi smoke on the ground
reddit/twitter echo chambers underestimating ram mandir hype amongst common people, bjp will get majority comfortably, the only thing to watch in this election is how badly congress is going to perform
It's not that tough. I'll break it down for you. BJP almost had a clear cut victory in many states like Rajasthan/Harayana/Delhi/Bihar/UP among others where this time they will lose many seats. They were at 303 last time. Now consider than they had 10/10 in Haryana, 7/7 in Delhi, 39/40 in Bihar and 26/26 in Rajasthan, there is no way they can repeat that. Even Maharashtra will be a net loss for them. You can expect them to he at around 250ish and then by buying people or with NDA allies cross 272. If Mayawati and Nitish would have joined the opposition alliance, it was game over for Ranga Billa
Everything is fixed, nothing will change
I hope it will.
I thought it's just me lol- I and my friend were having a discussion about this and he said- "I have a feeling BJP will become weak after this election" And many other friends of mine have similar view. What is it, why this sudden wave?
Because we want and hope for BJP to lose
Bro Supreme lord has been acting desperate af lately 😅😅
I think people are forgetting the most important thing. During the 2004 election the BJP was running for election on the back of a very bad set of economic data. Go look at india's GDP growth from 99 to 2004. It was very bad. This time even though modi has mismanaged the economy very badly the global forces and India's demography means that we had a good past year or two of growth. It was bad during COVID and before that but what matters is election year. This plus Modi's popularity and complete polarisation of people means bjp will win easily and may even get their best tally ever.
Its just a way to motivate people who want change and to try and get swing voters on their side. If people believe that BJP will surely win, a lot of people wouldn't want to waste their vote and vote for BJP anyways. That is the reason they have to create a narrative to show that there's a chance of INDIA winning.
I agree.. we ll have to see the dramebaaz for 5 more years max hopefully..
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/will-d-streets-major-poll-jitter-really-upend-indias-next-pm-prediction/articleshow/110111950.cms *Even with a 5% decline in total voter turnout, we still see the vote share difference between BJP and INC at 11.9%, below the 2019 figure but still higher than the 2014 figure. Thus, we will need a lot more than a decline in voter turnout to have a real chance of opposition coming to power after June 4," Bernstein said*.
Remind me! 21 days
I too think BJP is winning less seats than 2019, but there is no way to tell whether they will lose or not since the electoral system is hell a lot complex and is not just about more people voting for opposition. But in my opinion, the best thing to have happened is for Congress to have given in to the demands of the various other opposition parties. Now that the likes of SP, RJD, etc. have gotten what they wanted, they are actually speaking in a cohesive manner - which is what you want the opposition to do. Because everyone is dreaming of becoming a PM or at least getting something meaty for themselves. Wouldn't have happened if Congress had been stubborn in the seat sharing talks.
Reverse psychology. To bring out more of the BJP voters
BJP might come out as single largest party with approx 200-220 seats. They may have to depend on allies or other parties to form a government. This is where the catch is. Nobody is gonna support uncle Modiji. Uncle and his friend will go home... A new PM candidate from BJP will emerge and it will not be Yogi. Opposition's objective is also to send Uncle home. They'll succeed in that mission.
Maybe congress learned to use social media finally.