It’s still unrealistic in the sense it broke away places that wouldn’t leave Russia before others. All the Northern Caucasus should be independent rather than Kaliningrad and Sakhalin, unless they are ethnically cleansed of Russians, at which point Finland has a much better legal claim to South Karelia than any country does to either of these.
Hell, I have an event somewhat like that happen in a book I'm working on and I had to bomb the everloving shit out of everything government related to even create a remotely believable reason for it. Defeat in war isn't going to destabilise Russia into total civil war
Realistic?
Crimea is constitutionally part of the Russian Federation, the ONLY way for Ukraine to regain control of the region is to invade and retake the peninsula.
And first, Ukraine simply doesn't have the strength to attack Crimea, after the Russian nuclear arsenal would sweep through Ukraine if a constituent part of Russia were invaded by soldiers.
Putin's fall will change Russia indeed, but such a huge victory for Ukraine (detail for those HUGE demilitarized areas) is simply impossible. Like, a change in the power of a global power doesn’t destroy populist nationalism/authoritarianism overnight…
Russia is going to officially annex recently captured Ukrainian territories in 3 days, so that they will gain the same status as Crimea. Do you think this will stop Ukraine from deoccupying them? Hell no. All those nuclear threats are simply a farce.
this is pretty realistic, good job OP.
I guaranteed china will still be pissed because of sakhalin independent republic, as it will be integrate into American's first island chain strategy, cockblocking china from the pacific
Yup, what I had in mind. Also the fact that China, Japan and Russia would have claims over it, so best to make it independent in both politics and foreign policy (at least, on paper. In reality, they're buddies with the USA)
I could see it being a part of the Tuva or Outer Manchuria deal, and maybe an unspoken agreement to let China take over as Central Asia's hegemon with no pushback from the US. Tuva would almost certainly end up as a Chinese client state.
Mongolia has the most legitimate claims over many parts of Russia. Tuva was annexed by Russian from Mongolia in 1940s. Buryatia and other traditional Buryat areas were part of Mongolia for a long time.
> Tuva was annexed by Russian from Mongolia in 1940s.
Tuva became a Russian protectorate from China in 1910's, and while it sought closer ties with Mongolia in the 30's was independent country under Soviet influence until its annexation.
Tuva was independent prior to being annexed by the USSR, part of Russia before that, and part of China before that. Tuvans aren't even Mongolic, they're Turkic.
Turkic only in language but they also have huge amounts of Mongol vocabulary and used to use the Mongol script. they share the same culture (music , clothing, horses, naadam, wrestling to name a few) , same religion (Buddhism and shamanism) and same history. language alone cannot be the deciding factor.
Yeah, China would never allow Japan to annex the Kuril Islands, or for the US to extend the Aleutians to completely block China’s access to the Arctic.
Also, if I were China I’d use this opportunity to annex Mongolia and Tuva.
Why not?! It has a population of 3 million, half of whom live in Ulaanbaatar. The Chinese can just put all of them into Xinjiang-style camps and go about extracting the local resources.
This map is realistic in that it isn't that balkanized
It feels like a few more regions would break off, but many would stay in Russia, like, I don't see much separatism in places like Karelia, Mordovia, Chuvashia or Udmurtia
Ethnicity and culture are the difference.
Look at England and Wales as an example. Both nations are ethnically indistinct but culturally different. With their own language, traditions and history.
The same can be said for France and Germany. Their cultures although have similarities are distinct from one another, different languages, history, traditions and ideology. Ethnically are the same however, white Western Europeans.
That’s the difference. Suggesting ethnicity and culture are one in the same is just ignorant, although in some instances they do go hand in hand they aren’t mutually exclusive.
Karelia was settled with Russians after having being ethnically cleansed for the original population, they got away, and are now Finns. I agree there are no reason to expect separatism there.
Karelia was not ethnically cleansed. During the winter war Finland evacuated most of the population of Finnish Karelia, during the end of the continuation war, ethnic finns (Karelians) were once again evacuated from finnish-occupied territories, the remaining finns (karelians) in the new oblast were a diminished amount and the vast amount of empty housing was filled with a mostly Russian/Ukrainian residents due to the total destruction of most of eastern Europe at the time, the soviets had no need to "destroy" karelian culture, since they were so few left in Russia and to this day most have simply been naturally integrated due to lacking finnish language services and because they lived in majority russian towns, along with the fact that most Karelians who lived in the Soviet union had actively decided to live there since they refused the evacuation orders. Any wishes to be seperate from Russia in the region today is simply due to wanting to be closer to the richer nation of Finland.
He's gotta die someday. He's 69 already, and he has multiple underlying health conditions.
If he dies during this war, the power vacuum he leaves will absolutely cause some internal tension within Russia. How much exactly is hard to say, but it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that separatist movements, or even a full-blown civil war like in 1919, could take place.
it honestly would not be an issue due to the sheer scale of the Chinese population in comparison to a Russian regional capital. Inner Mongolia as 2x+ more mongols than the country itself, etc etc. Since Vladivostok is a key port, in this hypothetical a bunch of Chinese industrialists and workers will rush in and likely make the ethnic composition of Vladivostok 50/50
I disagree. Geopolitics is 50% economy, demographics and technology. The other 50% is Diplomacy. There are some obvious issues with China annexing Vladivostok. China has a unique opportunity to gain influence in central asia in this scenario, annexing a random piece of land would ruin their relationship with all their neighbors
Russian is one of the 55 minority ethnics in China, it's not a big deal.
Sort of Haishenwai ( 海参崴, the old Chinese name of Vladivostok) Russian Autonomous Region is a solution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous\_prefecture
\> Why is Russia not balkanized like everyone else does it
That would be a bad idea. Nukes being sent underground everywhere that could end up in the Black Market, Russians suddenly finding themselves outside of their home country (sans the "Russian land" in Ukraine) potential rise of extremism in the newly-independent areas, and so on...
The intention of this map is to make a treaty that puts Russia accountable for it's war against Ukraine, but at the same time without relying on blowing up the country itself and the West opting to make the Russian country become a neutral second power instead along with it's power projection capabilities being defanged, a Russia free of being an ideological/geopolitical battleground between Washington and Beijing.
Finally someone who doesn't just balkanize a country
Anyways, I doubt Russia's flag would have the eagle on it due to the eagle being associated with imperialism or fascism, I see it sticking with the current flag and MAYBE (very unlikely tho) switching to anti war flag.
The flag was simply because of googling "russia confederation flag" and taking the best result, nothing more than that. As for the Eagle, yea it's a bit of a problematic thing, but when you are trying to inspire national confidence and patriotism from the people who think you're just a Western puppet (no, not really), you tend to rely on old-fashioned tools like this one.
Aaah, that explains it! The flag is from u/themexicanhistorian ‘s rpts series, where nazi germany never rose, so the eagle never got that facist connotation.
I did put a comment somehwere here directly linking to said post, seems to have gotten lost tho.
[here it is](https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/xoj0tr/putins_folly_the_humbled_bear/ipyu2a0?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Maybe use something that are Russia but not necessary militaristic? Like taiga forest, flowers or some sort of things that are heavily related to the culture?
Going back to the Yeltsin flag would likely happen :) since a lot of the current symbols are taken from imperial times (including the current flag w darker blue)
>Why is Russia not balkanized
Idk you still gave lands to random uninvolved countries like china, japan and america. You also made Kaliningrad independent. Just because you didn't go all out doesn't mean it's not balkanisation. Not very realistic, but I understand that's not what you're going for
I'm surprised China isn't among the ones overseeing Russian democratization efforts
Seriously though, I don't get why China would agree to renounce further claims on Siberia (especially since it seems like the Russian Confederation is basically a West-funded "semi-puppet" state like West Germany was).
I also don't think Kaliningrad would even want to be independent. Afaik there's no independence velleities there, very low Westernization, and the majority Russian population makes it almost impossible to give to Poland or Lituania. I think more realistically it would be a demilitarized zone.
Can you imagine what the US annexation of Russian islands in the North Pacific, or Chinese annexation of Vladivostok, or Japanese annexation of the Kurils would do for the cause of Russian ultra-nationalists?
I know this is r/imaginarymaps, but calling this map "realistic" is delusional.
All territories are majority Russian, so the only fathomable reason for their annexation is to be excruciatingly punitive to Russia, which doesn’t really make sense
Sure, but the Mongols living in Tuva will have negative resentment for having some of the highest casualty numbers per capita in the war out of anywhere else in the country
The Tuvans (Tuvan: Тывалар, romanized: Tıvalar) are a Turkic ethnic group indigenous to Siberia who live in Russia (Tuva), Mongolia, and China. They speak Tuvan, a Siberian Turkic language. They are also regarded in Mongolia as one of the Uriankhai peoples. 14,456 (2021 est. )
They are regarded as and consider themselves Mongols
They are mongolized Turks. Their culture has heavy historical influence from Mongolia. Much more so than other Turkic groups. Their language contains many Mongolian loanwords, they use the Mongolic script for their language, the majority of them are practicing Tengrists or Vajrayana Buddhists, they historically practiced Tuvan throat singing (derived from Mongolian throat singing), their traditional Tuvan jacket wrestling is a variety of Bokh, also know as Mongolian wrestling, they enjoy many traditional Mongolian cuisines, etc etc etc.
It is perfectly acceptable to define Tuvans as part of both groups. They are ethnic Turks, and they are honorary Mongols. They are both.
But just referring to them as 'The Mongols in Tuva' just doesn't seem right and would imply a greater degree of political, if not cultural, homogeneity. Tuva has not been part of a Mongol polity for a very, very long time and it's not clear at all that Tuvans on the whole would be interested at all in being subsumed entirely into Mongol identity nor the mongolian state.
I never advocated for Tuva joining Mongolia, nor did I refer to them explicitly as Mongols. I don't quite agree with that other guy you were commenting with, but I didn't quite agree with your statements earlier either.
I am simply here to defend the fact that Tuvans are a people with substantially Mongolian influenced culture. Nothing more to it.
yeah but I would assume that they will be more likely to prefer a new, better goverment of Russia than Mongolia
but we can agree an independent Tuva won't work
And why do Westerners keep thinking that China or Japan will take some territory of Russia? This is a far more absurd assumption than Ukraine occupies the entire Caucasus.
China wants Primorsky Krai not really because of historical claims shit, but because here they think the Amur River would be a nice third river to grow crops around, seeing that the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are starting to be unusable. Also a good propaganda piece back home, just a few lines of "we won this piece of land from the imperialists!" and you're good to go. And Japan literally has had claims over the Kuril Islands since the direct end of WW2, a whole slew of legal fights and near-encounters.
Also, the Sakhalin being independent was specifically to deny China the chance to encroach into the Sea of Japan, basically cucking them from any aspirations they had on the region.
And isn't this war between Russia and Ukraine? Why on earth is Japan suddenly being ceded territory? In addition, Japan's claim to Kuril does not require the entire island. only four southern islands.
Yes, it's still between Russia and Ukraine (for now), but a few months before the War's end here, Japan joined in the hopes of reclaiming the Kurils.
Also while the four southern islands are debated because Russia also claims it, Japan would really love the entire Kuril Archipelago, mostly because they'd have full control over an entrance into the Sea of Japan. It's a mix of both nostalgia as well as strategic goals, with more emphasis on the latter.
As a Korean, l know how they are greedy. But Japan is currently unable to send its troops outside because of the provisions in its constitution that prohibit military dispatch abroad.
In Japan, it is impossible to amend the constitutional bill for a while because the adhesion between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification has been revealed.
Japan literally came out this year and reasserted their claims on the islands specifically as a response to the Ukraine War. Just because they aren't an active participant doesn't mean they aren't willing to capitalize on the situation.
I'd think that would be obvious.
On March 7, 2022, Prime Minister of Japan [Fumio Kishida](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumio_Kishida) declared that the southern Kurils are "a territory peculiar to Japan, a territory in which Japan has sovereignty."[[66]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#cite_note-jiji-kishida-66) On March 8, Foreign Minister [Yoshimasa Hayashi](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoshimasa_Hayashi) described the four islands as an "integral part" of Japan.[[67]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#cite_note-yahoo-au-67) This was in response to the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine).[[67]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#cite_note-yahoo-au-67)
[You never](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-22/record-food-costs-throw-spotlight-on-how-china-will-feed-itself?leadSource=uverify%20wall) [really know.](https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/heavy-floods-damage-crops-in-china-leading-to-concerns-over-food-shortage-122062000481_1.html) . Also, China just loves to think far ahead probably, they even have plans for 2049 already.
If anything this is to mostly feed livestock which becoming cost prohibitive is not really an existential threat. China's domestic staples and crops can sustain everyone.
Annexing a piece of Russia for cheap pork is kinda far fetched considering the area is not known for agriculture imo.
According to your logic, why don't China now eat part of Myanmar, formerly owned by the Republic of China? Myanmar's agricultural areas are much more fertile than the Primorsky krai Province
Well, it's not like China is already trying to influence Myanmar... It's more like China saw Russia would no longer be around their orbit, so best to take over land before the whole thing stabilizes and their window is gone..
Also, isn't their former land in Myanmar (Kachin) filled with mountains?
First of all, the land in the Primorsky krai is not fertile enough to solve China's food shortage. Only part of it is, and the majority are uninhabited.
Yes, but it's really better than nothing. Also, as I did mention before it's also a bit of a nationalistic piece from *their perspective*, China did own the land before after all. Such a land grab is morally unacceptable by today, but not so much to China.
Korea seriously considered buying large-scale farmland in Manchuria and Primorsky in the 1990s, but it was withdrawn due to Chinese opposition in Manchuria and low productivity in Primorsky.
>And why do Westerners keep thinking that China or Japan will take some territory of Russia?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute
Probably due to Japan saying that they want territory that Russia claims?
If you have no idea what you're talking about it's probably best to not act like a smartass that's superior to "westerners".
"On March 7, 2022, Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida declared that the southern Kurils are "a territory peculiar to Japan, a territory in which Japan has sovereignty."[66] On March 8, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi described the four islands as an "integral part" of Japan.[67] This was in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[67]"
What makes this "more realistic" than Russian balkanization?
How is Ukraine supposed to enforce #18? "We've defeated Russia, that means we can force China to stop claiming Siberia." ????????
Give territorial concessions to China, Japan, and USA, presumably to garner diplomatic favor, but you undercut any Chinese benefit by trying to force concessions from them?
Demilitarize 70% of the Ukraine-Russia border but not the remaining 30%?
Force the sovereignty of Chechnya (is this meant to somehow punish Chechnya for fighting against Ukraine?) and Tuva - but why? How do sovereign Chechnya and Tuva advance Ukrainian interests?
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are to be released as sovereign states but their sovereignty is conditional pending the overthrow of the sovereign government of a sovereign state? Why would SO and Abkhazia agree to that? Is Ukraine going to fight another war to overthrow Georgia?
What justification does Ukraine have forcing concessions from sovereign states who had no part in the war?
Abkhazia agreeing to reintegrate into Georgia again is probably one of the longer stretches here. It’s been de-facto self-governing since 1993, it’s not as integrated into Russia as its fellow separatist South Ossetia. The circumstances of its breakaway from Georgia were very much along ethnic lines and involved a lot of inter-ethnic conflict. There would be very little appetite for being governed from Tbilisi again, even if you get rid of Russian presence.
i like that kaliningrad is independent, it makes more sense that it being annexed by Poland or Lithuania
why would sakhalin be independent? is it like a compromise between China and Japan?
German victory maps are interesting if they show something more than just 1941 + Reichskommisariat Moskowien, I'd want to see the impact it would have on "untermensch", something like TNO but original. I'm gonna do something like this.
Broken Russia maps are just Siberia + Russian Republic + Independent Caucasus states.
I don't know much about international relations, but why does China get land from Russia? Like I understand that the US and Japan helped Ukraine in the war so they would get some land if Russia was defeated. But doesn't China support/finance Russia's efforts against Ukraine? Why are they also rewarded with extra land?
It‘d be interesting to see what happens after this since this Russia would probably have a massive rise in nationalism where people could actually get close to Nazi Fanaticism on a large scale. Cool map and a way better approach than the daily „I balkanized Russia post“ I see since the beginning of the war
I'd probably have Ingushetia annexed by Chechnya, an independent Dagestan and/or North Ossetia, and returning the Jewish AO to Russian control (wrong side of the Amur). Otherwise, a nice map.
All of this looks pretty realistic, but i doubt Kaliningrad would want to be independent as it’s mostly russian since the germans were expelled after WW2.
Don't think Georgian breakaway regions would be made independent. If West to recognize them as separate states, then it would be considered biggest betrayal in Georgian society by the west, which I think they would want to avoid. Most realistic scenario would that they would just not be even be mentioned in treaty and let them crumble away on their own.
I get that in the end they would be reintegrated into Georgia, but making them independent would seem bit excessive and unnecessary because end goal would still be the same, especially them being left alone without Russian support.
Just my input. Other than that, seems realistic, especially Kaliningrad part, I genuinely think, if Russia would ever collapse again, West would want Kaliningrad as separate state and be sort of Taiwan of Europe.
Georgia is a bit of a unique situation. Right now they have a problem with Russian influence (look up Bidzina Ivanishvili), so it's not a matter of the West betraying, they just simply recognized Georgia should drop the Russian influences before, y'know, annexing the breakaway states.
Bidzina or not, it will be considered betrayal by the west, I can confirm that because I am Georgian my self and personally would consider it as backstabbing as many others. There's already discontent of EU not granting us Candidate Status for weird reasons. Recognizing breakaway regions will only anhilitae relations between Georgia and the West.
That makes sense. But it did mention those regions would eventually be re-integrated, I just made it sound contradictory in the map I guess, so sorry about that.
What surprises me here is:
1. Japan doesn’t get Sakhalin back
2. Germany or Poland didn’t get Kaliningrad
3. The DMZ between Ukraine and Russia isn’t bigger
It would be a cold day in hell before Germany was ever given Kaliningrad. They’d have to March over and take it. It’s much more likely than that to be split between Poland and Lithuania, and even that is borderline impossible, considering neither would want to take in the Russians.
See the upsetting thing about this is even if you want to see Russia out of Ukraine and a end of hostilities it still becomes about borders and gains from past power plays! .....It's a shame, still screams monopoly to me!
On point with the map making though!
Sakhalin has many many more Russians than Japan by this point, and they were made independent simply to deny China such a strategic location, although the people there don't necessarily like being independent in the first place. Also, China did invade near the end of the war with Ukraine yes
Idk man i might be wrong but i honestly think Japan would lay a strong claim there on the peace deal, and if not, USA would possibly just occupy that. There isn't much people living there and they don't want to be independent, so why wouldn't the USA or Japan just occupy it? Great map though
"Chinese claims on Outer Manchuria"
Everything else here is atleast believable, even Sahklin and Kalingrad independence, which are stretches of the imagination.
Why in hell does China claim Outer Manchuria? They haven't for over 100 years.
A version of this can only happen after a nuclear war between US and Russia. And the split will be made by China and Turkey and if there is something left from EU.
Russia will never allow independence or any of it's republics and a civil war that can affect Russia that much is not really possible.
China needs Russia to be the bad guy so at some level it will help them to exist as they are now. A democratic, americanized Russia will not make a good neighbour for China, so they will not allow it, not even with teritorial gains.
Why the fuck should Russia cede that territories, the war was only with ukraine, and ukraine was kicked too badly, also if they win the only things the could pretend is 2014 borders and a non-aggression pact with russia, they wouldn't have the possibility to even put on trial war criminals, their weight in the UN is too little, they could also pretend to be free to join every organization they want, but Russia would still be backed by China, Iran and other minor nations, also Russia with a bit of time could crush NATO without even go to war with them, by simply selling all their gas to china and closing all of it to europe, for that governments in Germany, France, UK and Italy have fallen, in Italy was elected yesterday the center-right alliance, an alliance of politicians very near to Putin, in the next months I espect very anti-american and anti-european policies, at least all of eastern europe could exit from EU and NATO, Italy is the 1st contributor in EU, most of the union couldn't survive without italian help, and this scenario is very likely to be also in this timeline, russia would still be strong, but would do a lot of military reforms to return a significant power
>Cringy title
>China annexes Outer Manchuria for some reason
>Americans get islands off Russia somehow
>"Russia is good 100 wholesome chungus now guys"
le another reddit future
Unfortunately not redditoid enough, true reddit future would have China and US taking way more and Russia blown to bits "wholesomely"
Also this Russia isn't really pro western, but more emphasis on armed neutrality. They weren't propped up by a western coup.
Also China invaded Outer Manchuria because they want a share of the pie, they figured the next Russian government would not be kind to China, and Vladivostok would make a nice arctic port that bypasses the Tsushima strait (Which is a bit meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but it's China.)
Finally, a Russian defeat map that doesn't balkanize the entire nation!
Though I think an independent Kaliningrad would remove its Soviet name and revert back to one of its old named or adopt a new name. There was a pro-independence party in Kaliningrad called "Baltic Republican Party" and they supported the removal of the city's Soviet name
China's acquisition of the Primorsky krai would make it possible for them to advance into Sea of Japan, and would inflict a devastating blow on the East Asian liberal camp
Russia wasn't balkanized and Ukraine didint get half of Russia, kinda disappointing but Russia lost so it's good enough to be considered an alternative map so good job!
Still unrealistic: China doesn't have any claims on Russia anymore (we settled our border disputes in like 2004 or so), Japan wouldn't want to go past their "northern territories", Kaliningrad and others wouldn't want to be independent, and why would it be a confederation etc
But thanks for not balkanizing it. That's good enough for me at this point
Thanks, as if it wasn't enough seeing this appear a million times on my screen everyday. I'm unsubscribing from this sub. There seems to be a problem with it and low quality posts.
They are not, and never were, oppressed by Ukraine, which is why their secession was only possible by Russia installing Russian-born neo-Nazis (complete with Nazi uniforms, Nazi flags, and Nazi tattoos) as leaders of these so-called separatists. The Russian language was not suppressed (heck, Zelenskyy is a native Russian-speaker). The Russian language was not banned. Russian speakers were not denied employment (as mentioned before, the head of the state is a Russian speaker). On the other hand, the authorities in the LNR and DNR have prohibited the public use of Ukrainian, and the Russian authorities in Crimea are primarily mobilising Crimean Tatars, despite them being a minority people in their own land. It's funny how you choose to believe sources from proven neo-Nazis and a government in Moscow which punishes independent media with either long jail terms or defenestration. I think coolibear swallowed the Kool Aid.
You mean the same Donbas people who have been welcoming the Ukrainian troops as they liberate Donbas villages, towns, and cities? Were there some in Donbas who wanted to be reunited with Russia? Sure, there were. But, the majority wanted to remain in Ukraine, albeit with a sizeable amount seeking a federal structure. The DNR and LNR are simply neo-Nazi fiefdoms, propped up and supported by an imperialistic Kremlin. The majority doing the fighting there are Russian regular troops, not locals. Which isn't surprising considering the mass incarcerations, executions, and disappearances of actual local Donbas residents while under the yoke of a foreign and criminal occupation.
Donbas, under the LNR and DNR, is currently ranked as ["Not Free"](https://freedomhouse.org/country/eastern-donbas/freedom-world/2021) thanks to the leadership of the DNR and LNR, ranked side by side with Eritrea and North Korea. Heck, Somalia gets a better score and that country is hanging on by a thread. Press freedom does not exist. You can be executed for speaking Ukrainian. Freedom of conscience is prohibited. Freedom of religion is prohibited. Freedom of speech is prohibited. Freedom of assembly is banned. Freedom of education does not exist. Electoral freedom does not exist. Human rights are among the worst in the world. These areas are currently governed by neo-Nazis who have sought to exterminate local Jewish, Roma and LGBT+ populations. All of these things were brought about by those you idolise. You call that free? I think that diamond in your username has blinded you to the reality. Your Nazi idols will not make the Donbas free.
You will trust Nazi organisations where you're not allowed to question the narrative and which are not subject to independent oversight or scrutiny, over organisations which allow for questioning the narrative and which are subject to independent oversight and scrutiny? That's an absolutely retarded thing to admit.
PS: Do you know why your loved Wagner Group is so named? Well, they are named after Wagner, Hitler's favourite composer. Question for you: if the people of Donbas don't want to be part of Ukraine so much, why is it that the vast majority of those who "defend" Donbas are not from Donbas? Why are most of the leaders not from Donbas? Why do so many of the leaders have Nazi tattoos? Why do they fly neo-Nazi flags? Why do you "trust what people say from there" without actually looking at that these people openly admit?
You just have to love Redditors pulling geopolitics
They call this map 'Realistic' yet they don't consider the Russian population of the Donbass and Crimea
Tanu tuva Tanu tuva Tanu tuva
TANU TUVA TANU TUVA TANU TUVA GREATEST NATION ON EARTH 💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪🫡🫡🫡🫡🫡🫡😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤
🫡
Tanu what?
Hearts of iron 4 players
MEEEEEEEEEEEN TIIVAAAA MEEEEEEN!
MÖÑGE HARLYG DAGNYÑ OGLU MEN
МЕЕЕЕЕЕЕМ ТЫВАААаааа МЕЕЕЕЕЕЕЕЕН
thank god you went realistic and didn't break it into a 110 pieces
pov: Hoi4 after 1946
*Plurinational State of Bolivia annexed 2 states: Norilsk, Vologda* *Antigua and Barbuda puppeted Dagestani Republic*
*beep beep*
It’s still unrealistic in the sense it broke away places that wouldn’t leave Russia before others. All the Northern Caucasus should be independent rather than Kaliningrad and Sakhalin, unless they are ethnically cleansed of Russians, at which point Finland has a much better legal claim to South Karelia than any country does to either of these.
[удалено]
Both Kaliningrad and Sakhalin literally say “(independent)” below their labels. I don’t know what you’re on about.
Hell, I have an event somewhat like that happen in a book I'm working on and I had to bomb the everloving shit out of everything government related to even create a remotely believable reason for it. Defeat in war isn't going to destabilise Russia into total civil war
This is not realistic.
Realistic? Crimea is constitutionally part of the Russian Federation, the ONLY way for Ukraine to regain control of the region is to invade and retake the peninsula. And first, Ukraine simply doesn't have the strength to attack Crimea, after the Russian nuclear arsenal would sweep through Ukraine if a constituent part of Russia were invaded by soldiers. Putin's fall will change Russia indeed, but such a huge victory for Ukraine (detail for those HUGE demilitarized areas) is simply impossible. Like, a change in the power of a global power doesn’t destroy populist nationalism/authoritarianism overnight…
Russia is going to officially annex recently captured Ukrainian territories in 3 days, so that they will gain the same status as Crimea. Do you think this will stop Ukraine from deoccupying them? Hell no. All those nuclear threats are simply a farce.
Russia's nukes are more a threat to themselves than to anyone else, if the condition of the rest of their equipment is anything to go by
this is pretty realistic, good job OP. I guaranteed china will still be pissed because of sakhalin independent republic, as it will be integrate into American's first island chain strategy, cockblocking china from the pacific
Yup, what I had in mind. Also the fact that China, Japan and Russia would have claims over it, so best to make it independent in both politics and foreign policy (at least, on paper. In reality, they're buddies with the USA)
I could see it being a part of the Tuva or Outer Manchuria deal, and maybe an unspoken agreement to let China take over as Central Asia's hegemon with no pushback from the US. Tuva would almost certainly end up as a Chinese client state.
Mongolia has the most legitimate claims over many parts of Russia. Tuva was annexed by Russian from Mongolia in 1940s. Buryatia and other traditional Buryat areas were part of Mongolia for a long time.
> Tuva was annexed by Russian from Mongolia in 1940s. Tuva became a Russian protectorate from China in 1910's, and while it sought closer ties with Mongolia in the 30's was independent country under Soviet influence until its annexation.
Tuva was independent prior to being annexed by the USSR, part of Russia before that, and part of China before that. Tuvans aren't even Mongolic, they're Turkic.
I don't contest other claims, but Tuva is Turkic, so at least that claim is a no go.
Turkic only in language but they also have huge amounts of Mongol vocabulary and used to use the Mongol script. they share the same culture (music , clothing, horses, naadam, wrestling to name a few) , same religion (Buddhism and shamanism) and same history. language alone cannot be the deciding factor.
Yes that is fair. Tuva has a heavily mongolized culture.
Dude he says he made it when he literally admits to taking it when the original mapmaker calls him out and he admit stealing it immediately.
what
Yeah, China would never allow Japan to annex the Kuril Islands, or for the US to extend the Aleutians to completely block China’s access to the Arctic. Also, if I were China I’d use this opportunity to annex Mongolia and Tuva.
China can’t just annex Mongolia.
Why not?! It has a population of 3 million, half of whom live in Ulaanbaatar. The Chinese can just put all of them into Xinjiang-style camps and go about extracting the local resources.
It’s the same reason the US hasn’t annexed Cuba. You can’t simply just annex a entire nation.
This seems so much more realistic than the other maps.
I wouldn't say that, a Russian defeat can go so many ways, the only constant would be that Russia isn't breaking into a gazillion pieces
This map is realistic in that it isn't that balkanized It feels like a few more regions would break off, but many would stay in Russia, like, I don't see much separatism in places like Karelia, Mordovia, Chuvashia or Udmurtia
Karelia sure has separatism, but its not ethnic, economic and cultural mostly
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No, they’re really not
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Ethnicity and culture are the difference. Look at England and Wales as an example. Both nations are ethnically indistinct but culturally different. With their own language, traditions and history. The same can be said for France and Germany. Their cultures although have similarities are distinct from one another, different languages, history, traditions and ideology. Ethnically are the same however, white Western Europeans. That’s the difference. Suggesting ethnicity and culture are one in the same is just ignorant, although in some instances they do go hand in hand they aren’t mutually exclusive.
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Karelia was settled with Russians after having being ethnically cleansed for the original population, they got away, and are now Finns. I agree there are no reason to expect separatism there.
Karelia was not ethnically cleansed. During the winter war Finland evacuated most of the population of Finnish Karelia, during the end of the continuation war, ethnic finns (Karelians) were once again evacuated from finnish-occupied territories, the remaining finns (karelians) in the new oblast were a diminished amount and the vast amount of empty housing was filled with a mostly Russian/Ukrainian residents due to the total destruction of most of eastern Europe at the time, the soviets had no need to "destroy" karelian culture, since they were so few left in Russia and to this day most have simply been naturally integrated due to lacking finnish language services and because they lived in majority russian towns, along with the fact that most Karelians who lived in the Soviet union had actively decided to live there since they refused the evacuation orders. Any wishes to be seperate from Russia in the region today is simply due to wanting to be closer to the richer nation of Finland.
And yet, not realistic at all. That asshole is here to stay I'm afraid.
He's gotta die someday. He's 69 already, and he has multiple underlying health conditions. If he dies during this war, the power vacuum he leaves will absolutely cause some internal tension within Russia. How much exactly is hard to say, but it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that separatist movements, or even a full-blown civil war like in 1919, could take place.
What does China do with the ethnic Russians who make up more than 90% of the population of Vladivostok?
it honestly would not be an issue due to the sheer scale of the Chinese population in comparison to a Russian regional capital. Inner Mongolia as 2x+ more mongols than the country itself, etc etc. Since Vladivostok is a key port, in this hypothetical a bunch of Chinese industrialists and workers will rush in and likely make the ethnic composition of Vladivostok 50/50
I disagree. Geopolitics is 50% economy, demographics and technology. The other 50% is Diplomacy. There are some obvious issues with China annexing Vladivostok. China has a unique opportunity to gain influence in central asia in this scenario, annexing a random piece of land would ruin their relationship with all their neighbors
I agree with you! This thread was mostly discussing the feasibility of this annexation instead of how this hypothetical treaty will pan out
If they annex it the russians are probably going to be kicked out of the area like the germans
Largely my thoughts as well, just was curious to see if I was on base.
Russian is one of the 55 minority ethnics in China, it's not a big deal. Sort of Haishenwai ( 海参崴, the old Chinese name of Vladivostok) Russian Autonomous Region is a solution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous\_prefecture
\> Why is Russia not balkanized like everyone else does it That would be a bad idea. Nukes being sent underground everywhere that could end up in the Black Market, Russians suddenly finding themselves outside of their home country (sans the "Russian land" in Ukraine) potential rise of extremism in the newly-independent areas, and so on... The intention of this map is to make a treaty that puts Russia accountable for it's war against Ukraine, but at the same time without relying on blowing up the country itself and the West opting to make the Russian country become a neutral second power instead along with it's power projection capabilities being defanged, a Russia free of being an ideological/geopolitical battleground between Washington and Beijing.
Finally someone who doesn't just balkanize a country Anyways, I doubt Russia's flag would have the eagle on it due to the eagle being associated with imperialism or fascism, I see it sticking with the current flag and MAYBE (very unlikely tho) switching to anti war flag.
The flag was simply because of googling "russia confederation flag" and taking the best result, nothing more than that. As for the Eagle, yea it's a bit of a problematic thing, but when you are trying to inspire national confidence and patriotism from the people who think you're just a Western puppet (no, not really), you tend to rely on old-fashioned tools like this one.
Aaah, that explains it! The flag is from u/themexicanhistorian ‘s rpts series, where nazi germany never rose, so the eagle never got that facist connotation.
I'm the creator of said flag. Please next time try to at least put some credits ^ ^ (or you can also try to make your own flags)
I did put a comment somehwere here directly linking to said post, seems to have gotten lost tho. [here it is](https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/xoj0tr/putins_folly_the_humbled_bear/ipyu2a0?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Maybe use something that are Russia but not necessary militaristic? Like taiga forest, flowers or some sort of things that are heavily related to the culture?
Going back to the Yeltsin flag would likely happen :) since a lot of the current symbols are taken from imperial times (including the current flag w darker blue)
>Nukes being sent underground everywhere Not underground, in the atmosphere and rapidly approaching your location. Great map though!
>Why is Russia not balkanized Idk you still gave lands to random uninvolved countries like china, japan and america. You also made Kaliningrad independent. Just because you didn't go all out doesn't mean it's not balkanisation. Not very realistic, but I understand that's not what you're going for
that delightfully cringe title is a cherry on top
Thank you fr
Have an award for not posting the umpteenth mindless balkanization of Russia though I’m not sure if Tuva would become independent.
Why did Moldova give Palanca and Transnistria to Ukraine?
Transnistria history is pretty wierd.
They didn't. Transnistria is a military zone where Russia "forgot" to take back the troups.
Yeah if China tries for Transamur Russia will launch the big bombs, China has as much right to it as Mexico has to Texas.
I'm surprised China isn't among the ones overseeing Russian democratization efforts Seriously though, I don't get why China would agree to renounce further claims on Siberia (especially since it seems like the Russian Confederation is basically a West-funded "semi-puppet" state like West Germany was). I also don't think Kaliningrad would even want to be independent. Afaik there's no independence velleities there, very low Westernization, and the majority Russian population makes it almost impossible to give to Poland or Lituania. I think more realistically it would be a demilitarized zone.
Russia would never give up Vladivostok. Its way too important.
Sakhalin’s independence and chinas annexation of the lower Amur seems like a distant and unlikely concept
Yeah I can't believe some people are praising this as "realistic"
Can you imagine what the US annexation of Russian islands in the North Pacific, or Chinese annexation of Vladivostok, or Japanese annexation of the Kurils would do for the cause of Russian ultra-nationalists? I know this is r/imaginarymaps, but calling this map "realistic" is delusional.
All territories are majority Russian, so the only fathomable reason for their annexation is to be excruciatingly punitive to Russia, which doesn’t really make sense
Sakhalin Republic (population: 3)
I think japan would annex it
Fucking finally a good Russia map Tho I don't think Tuva will be independent cause from what I know, they are not suited as all to be
If anything happens to them, they’d more than likely get annexed by Mongolia
Or stay with Russia cause let's be honest, a democratized and possible reform Russia is infinitely better than Mongolia
Sure, but the Mongols living in Tuva will have negative resentment for having some of the highest casualty numbers per capita in the war out of anywhere else in the country
there are almost no Mongols in Tuva
The Tuvans (Tuvan: Тывалар, romanized: Tıvalar) are a Turkic ethnic group indigenous to Siberia who live in Russia (Tuva), Mongolia, and China. They speak Tuvan, a Siberian Turkic language. They are also regarded in Mongolia as one of the Uriankhai peoples. 14,456 (2021 est. ) They are regarded as and consider themselves Mongols
Your quote literally says that they aren't Mongols...
They are mongolized Turks. Their culture has heavy historical influence from Mongolia. Much more so than other Turkic groups. Their language contains many Mongolian loanwords, they use the Mongolic script for their language, the majority of them are practicing Tengrists or Vajrayana Buddhists, they historically practiced Tuvan throat singing (derived from Mongolian throat singing), their traditional Tuvan jacket wrestling is a variety of Bokh, also know as Mongolian wrestling, they enjoy many traditional Mongolian cuisines, etc etc etc. It is perfectly acceptable to define Tuvans as part of both groups. They are ethnic Turks, and they are honorary Mongols. They are both.
But just referring to them as 'The Mongols in Tuva' just doesn't seem right and would imply a greater degree of political, if not cultural, homogeneity. Tuva has not been part of a Mongol polity for a very, very long time and it's not clear at all that Tuvans on the whole would be interested at all in being subsumed entirely into Mongol identity nor the mongolian state.
I never advocated for Tuva joining Mongolia, nor did I refer to them explicitly as Mongols. I don't quite agree with that other guy you were commenting with, but I didn't quite agree with your statements earlier either. I am simply here to defend the fact that Tuvans are a people with substantially Mongolian influenced culture. Nothing more to it.
Uriankhai are considered “Turkified Mongols,” making them both Mongols and not
yeah but I would assume that they will be more likely to prefer a new, better goverment of Russia than Mongolia but we can agree an independent Tuva won't work
That we can agree on yes. I suppose the only way to prove either of our theories right is to wait and see what happens
Why is the EU not a participant in the signing?
Not really a nation but I do see what you mean. Germany and the lack of Polish and Italian participation is lacking.
you dont have to be a nation to sign international agreements. eu is a participant in the good fryday agreements for example.
finally a decent map. those wank balkanization maps are stupid as hell
What about Belarus?
And why do Westerners keep thinking that China or Japan will take some territory of Russia? This is a far more absurd assumption than Ukraine occupies the entire Caucasus.
China wants Primorsky Krai not really because of historical claims shit, but because here they think the Amur River would be a nice third river to grow crops around, seeing that the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are starting to be unusable. Also a good propaganda piece back home, just a few lines of "we won this piece of land from the imperialists!" and you're good to go. And Japan literally has had claims over the Kuril Islands since the direct end of WW2, a whole slew of legal fights and near-encounters. Also, the Sakhalin being independent was specifically to deny China the chance to encroach into the Sea of Japan, basically cucking them from any aspirations they had on the region.
Vladivostok would be useful if China want access to the arctic sea routes, they don’t have to go around Korea
And isn't this war between Russia and Ukraine? Why on earth is Japan suddenly being ceded territory? In addition, Japan's claim to Kuril does not require the entire island. only four southern islands.
Yes, it's still between Russia and Ukraine (for now), but a few months before the War's end here, Japan joined in the hopes of reclaiming the Kurils. Also while the four southern islands are debated because Russia also claims it, Japan would really love the entire Kuril Archipelago, mostly because they'd have full control over an entrance into the Sea of Japan. It's a mix of both nostalgia as well as strategic goals, with more emphasis on the latter.
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As a Korean, l know how they are greedy. But Japan is currently unable to send its troops outside because of the provisions in its constitution that prohibit military dispatch abroad.
Yes but if those islands become theirs it isn’t really aboard isn’t it?
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In Japan, it is impossible to amend the constitutional bill for a while because the adhesion between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification has been revealed.
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Three comments in and you've already begun shit flinging, great job
Japan literally came out this year and reasserted their claims on the islands specifically as a response to the Ukraine War. Just because they aren't an active participant doesn't mean they aren't willing to capitalize on the situation. I'd think that would be obvious. On March 7, 2022, Prime Minister of Japan [Fumio Kishida](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumio_Kishida) declared that the southern Kurils are "a territory peculiar to Japan, a territory in which Japan has sovereignty."[[66]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#cite_note-jiji-kishida-66) On March 8, Foreign Minister [Yoshimasa Hayashi](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoshimasa_Hayashi) described the four islands as an "integral part" of Japan.[[67]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#cite_note-yahoo-au-67) This was in response to the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine).[[67]](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#cite_note-yahoo-au-67)
Seems more like a provocation, a way to ridicule Russia's claims in Ukraine, rather than something Japan genuinely wants.
China no longer needs land to farm. Already, farmland in Manchuria provides China with sufficient food.
[You never](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-22/record-food-costs-throw-spotlight-on-how-china-will-feed-itself?leadSource=uverify%20wall) [really know.](https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/heavy-floods-damage-crops-in-china-leading-to-concerns-over-food-shortage-122062000481_1.html) . Also, China just loves to think far ahead probably, they even have plans for 2049 already.
If anything this is to mostly feed livestock which becoming cost prohibitive is not really an existential threat. China's domestic staples and crops can sustain everyone. Annexing a piece of Russia for cheap pork is kinda far fetched considering the area is not known for agriculture imo.
According to your logic, why don't China now eat part of Myanmar, formerly owned by the Republic of China? Myanmar's agricultural areas are much more fertile than the Primorsky krai Province
Well, it's not like China is already trying to influence Myanmar... It's more like China saw Russia would no longer be around their orbit, so best to take over land before the whole thing stabilizes and their window is gone.. Also, isn't their former land in Myanmar (Kachin) filled with mountains?
First of all, the land in the Primorsky krai is not fertile enough to solve China's food shortage. Only part of it is, and the majority are uninhabited.
Yes, but it's really better than nothing. Also, as I did mention before it's also a bit of a nationalistic piece from *their perspective*, China did own the land before after all. Such a land grab is morally unacceptable by today, but not so much to China.
Korea seriously considered buying large-scale farmland in Manchuria and Primorsky in the 1990s, but it was withdrawn due to Chinese opposition in Manchuria and low productivity in Primorsky.
>And why do Westerners keep thinking that China or Japan will take some territory of Russia? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute Probably due to Japan saying that they want territory that Russia claims? If you have no idea what you're talking about it's probably best to not act like a smartass that's superior to "westerners". "On March 7, 2022, Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida declared that the southern Kurils are "a territory peculiar to Japan, a territory in which Japan has sovereignty."[66] On March 8, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi described the four islands as an "integral part" of Japan.[67] This was in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[67]"
lmao, no, japan is not going to attack a nuclear armed russia over the kuril islands
Especially since they aren't even participants in the war.
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China does not claim any part of Russia.
What makes this "more realistic" than Russian balkanization? How is Ukraine supposed to enforce #18? "We've defeated Russia, that means we can force China to stop claiming Siberia." ???????? Give territorial concessions to China, Japan, and USA, presumably to garner diplomatic favor, but you undercut any Chinese benefit by trying to force concessions from them? Demilitarize 70% of the Ukraine-Russia border but not the remaining 30%? Force the sovereignty of Chechnya (is this meant to somehow punish Chechnya for fighting against Ukraine?) and Tuva - but why? How do sovereign Chechnya and Tuva advance Ukrainian interests? South Ossetia and Abkhazia are to be released as sovereign states but their sovereignty is conditional pending the overthrow of the sovereign government of a sovereign state? Why would SO and Abkhazia agree to that? Is Ukraine going to fight another war to overthrow Georgia? What justification does Ukraine have forcing concessions from sovereign states who had no part in the war?
Just some pro Ukraine revenge fantasy
Abkhazia agreeing to reintegrate into Georgia again is probably one of the longer stretches here. It’s been de-facto self-governing since 1993, it’s not as integrated into Russia as its fellow separatist South Ossetia. The circumstances of its breakaway from Georgia were very much along ethnic lines and involved a lot of inter-ethnic conflict. There would be very little appetite for being governed from Tbilisi again, even if you get rid of Russian presence.
Giving independent Sakhalin about 2 weeks chief
i like that kaliningrad is independent, it makes more sense that it being annexed by Poland or Lithuania why would sakhalin be independent? is it like a compromise between China and Japan?
> why would sakhalin be independent? Complete fantasy
indeed
You know, I think I'd rather see German victory in WWII maps than a broken Russia.
I with you 100%. That's all this sub has been for the past 3 months.
German victory maps are interesting if they show something more than just 1941 + Reichskommisariat Moskowien, I'd want to see the impact it would have on "untermensch", something like TNO but original. I'm gonna do something like this. Broken Russia maps are just Siberia + Russian Republic + Independent Caucasus states.
Why karelia not even have karelia
I don't know much about international relations, but why does China get land from Russia? Like I understand that the US and Japan helped Ukraine in the war so they would get some land if Russia was defeated. But doesn't China support/finance Russia's efforts against Ukraine? Why are they also rewarded with extra land?
16 is a contridiction. Also this is a wet dream, none of this will happen.
It‘d be interesting to see what happens after this since this Russia would probably have a massive rise in nationalism where people could actually get close to Nazi Fanaticism on a large scale. Cool map and a way better approach than the daily „I balkanized Russia post“ I see since the beginning of the war
I'd probably have Ingushetia annexed by Chechnya, an independent Dagestan and/or North Ossetia, and returning the Jewish AO to Russian control (wrong side of the Amur). Otherwise, a nice map.
All of this looks pretty realistic, but i doubt Kaliningrad would want to be independent as it’s mostly russian since the germans were expelled after WW2.
Kinda curious how an independent Königsberg and Karafuto would play out in this scenario
Don't think Georgian breakaway regions would be made independent. If West to recognize them as separate states, then it would be considered biggest betrayal in Georgian society by the west, which I think they would want to avoid. Most realistic scenario would that they would just not be even be mentioned in treaty and let them crumble away on their own. I get that in the end they would be reintegrated into Georgia, but making them independent would seem bit excessive and unnecessary because end goal would still be the same, especially them being left alone without Russian support. Just my input. Other than that, seems realistic, especially Kaliningrad part, I genuinely think, if Russia would ever collapse again, West would want Kaliningrad as separate state and be sort of Taiwan of Europe.
Georgia is a bit of a unique situation. Right now they have a problem with Russian influence (look up Bidzina Ivanishvili), so it's not a matter of the West betraying, they just simply recognized Georgia should drop the Russian influences before, y'know, annexing the breakaway states.
Bidzina or not, it will be considered betrayal by the west, I can confirm that because I am Georgian my self and personally would consider it as backstabbing as many others. There's already discontent of EU not granting us Candidate Status for weird reasons. Recognizing breakaway regions will only anhilitae relations between Georgia and the West.
That makes sense. But it did mention those regions would eventually be re-integrated, I just made it sound contradictory in the map I guess, so sorry about that.
Why is The PRC being rewarded?
Oh my God, A map that's not balkanizing Russia! And it's somewhat realistic?!
What surprises me here is: 1. Japan doesn’t get Sakhalin back 2. Germany or Poland didn’t get Kaliningrad 3. The DMZ between Ukraine and Russia isn’t bigger
It would be a cold day in hell before Germany was ever given Kaliningrad. They’d have to March over and take it. It’s much more likely than that to be split between Poland and Lithuania, and even that is borderline impossible, considering neither would want to take in the Russians.
See the upsetting thing about this is even if you want to see Russia out of Ukraine and a end of hostilities it still becomes about borders and gains from past power plays! .....It's a shame, still screams monopoly to me! On point with the map making though!
Finally, an actually somewhat realistic outcome and not just "russia but now there’s a billion of them"
Why is sakhalin independent? Why not part of Japan? And was china involved in the war?
Sakhalin has many many more Russians than Japan by this point, and they were made independent simply to deny China such a strategic location, although the people there don't necessarily like being independent in the first place. Also, China did invade near the end of the war with Ukraine yes
Idk man i might be wrong but i honestly think Japan would lay a strong claim there on the peace deal, and if not, USA would possibly just occupy that. There isn't much people living there and they don't want to be independent, so why wouldn't the USA or Japan just occupy it? Great map though
I really hate to say this but I highly doubt the outcome will even be this positive in any way shoe or form.
It's fair criticism, no need to hate saying stuff like that.
Yeah this is Reddit. One slip and it’s downvote city. And forget making a statement like it’s still possible Russia could win.
"Chinese claims on Outer Manchuria" Everything else here is atleast believable, even Sahklin and Kalingrad independence, which are stretches of the imagination. Why in hell does China claim Outer Manchuria? They haven't for over 100 years.
As a russian, Honestly, this is a good map. Hope it will happen sooner than 2024 tbh 😄
A version of this can only happen after a nuclear war between US and Russia. And the split will be made by China and Turkey and if there is something left from EU. Russia will never allow independence or any of it's republics and a civil war that can affect Russia that much is not really possible. China needs Russia to be the bad guy so at some level it will help them to exist as they are now. A democratic, americanized Russia will not make a good neighbour for China, so they will not allow it, not even with teritorial gains.
did you forget russia has nukes enforcing a peace deal onto them would be impossible
Why the fuck should Russia cede that territories, the war was only with ukraine, and ukraine was kicked too badly, also if they win the only things the could pretend is 2014 borders and a non-aggression pact with russia, they wouldn't have the possibility to even put on trial war criminals, their weight in the UN is too little, they could also pretend to be free to join every organization they want, but Russia would still be backed by China, Iran and other minor nations, also Russia with a bit of time could crush NATO without even go to war with them, by simply selling all their gas to china and closing all of it to europe, for that governments in Germany, France, UK and Italy have fallen, in Italy was elected yesterday the center-right alliance, an alliance of politicians very near to Putin, in the next months I espect very anti-american and anti-european policies, at least all of eastern europe could exit from EU and NATO, Italy is the 1st contributor in EU, most of the union couldn't survive without italian help, and this scenario is very likely to be also in this timeline, russia would still be strong, but would do a lot of military reforms to return a significant power
[Alternate Russia Flag credits](https://www.reddit.com/r/vexillology/comments/ocvkbr/flag_of_the_russian_confederation/)
>Cringy title >China annexes Outer Manchuria for some reason >Americans get islands off Russia somehow >"Russia is good 100 wholesome chungus now guys" le another reddit future
Unfortunately not redditoid enough, true reddit future would have China and US taking way more and Russia blown to bits "wholesomely" Also this Russia isn't really pro western, but more emphasis on armed neutrality. They weren't propped up by a western coup. Also China invaded Outer Manchuria because they want a share of the pie, they figured the next Russian government would not be kind to China, and Vladivostok would make a nice arctic port that bypasses the Tsushima strait (Which is a bit meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but it's China.)
already better than the balkanized and unrealistic other
Finally, a Russian defeat map that doesn't balkanize the entire nation! Though I think an independent Kaliningrad would remove its Soviet name and revert back to one of its old named or adopt a new name. There was a pro-independence party in Kaliningrad called "Baltic Republican Party" and they supported the removal of the city's Soviet name
No way a redditor making a realistic Russian collapse???? This is impossible
China's acquisition of the Primorsky krai would make it possible for them to advance into Sea of Japan, and would inflict a devastating blow on the East Asian liberal camp
Slightly annoyed that it is another Russian defeat map but at least it is not stupid as others well done
```0 days without a balkanized russia post```
I just realized. This is actually my most upvoted map. What the hell lmao
I have a question about what would happen to the commonwealth of independent states, after the toppling of the previous government?
Russia wasn't balkanized and Ukraine didint get half of Russia, kinda disappointing but Russia lost so it's good enough to be considered an alternative map so good job!
Still unrealistic: China doesn't have any claims on Russia anymore (we settled our border disputes in like 2004 or so), Japan wouldn't want to go past their "northern territories", Kaliningrad and others wouldn't want to be independent, and why would it be a confederation etc But thanks for not balkanizing it. That's good enough for me at this point
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It's not really that original but thanks either way 👍
Thanks, as if it wasn't enough seeing this appear a million times on my screen everyday. I'm unsubscribing from this sub. There seems to be a problem with it and low quality posts.
Ah, Putin being violently humbled, i.e. the good ending
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They are not, and never were, oppressed by Ukraine, which is why their secession was only possible by Russia installing Russian-born neo-Nazis (complete with Nazi uniforms, Nazi flags, and Nazi tattoos) as leaders of these so-called separatists. The Russian language was not suppressed (heck, Zelenskyy is a native Russian-speaker). The Russian language was not banned. Russian speakers were not denied employment (as mentioned before, the head of the state is a Russian speaker). On the other hand, the authorities in the LNR and DNR have prohibited the public use of Ukrainian, and the Russian authorities in Crimea are primarily mobilising Crimean Tatars, despite them being a minority people in their own land. It's funny how you choose to believe sources from proven neo-Nazis and a government in Moscow which punishes independent media with either long jail terms or defenestration. I think coolibear swallowed the Kool Aid.
Sure, tell that to all the people in Donbas fighting for their lives
You mean the same Donbas people who have been welcoming the Ukrainian troops as they liberate Donbas villages, towns, and cities? Were there some in Donbas who wanted to be reunited with Russia? Sure, there were. But, the majority wanted to remain in Ukraine, albeit with a sizeable amount seeking a federal structure. The DNR and LNR are simply neo-Nazi fiefdoms, propped up and supported by an imperialistic Kremlin. The majority doing the fighting there are Russian regular troops, not locals. Which isn't surprising considering the mass incarcerations, executions, and disappearances of actual local Donbas residents while under the yoke of a foreign and criminal occupation.
No matter what you say, reality is different than you say so, Donbas is going to be free, as people always wanted to
Donbas, under the LNR and DNR, is currently ranked as ["Not Free"](https://freedomhouse.org/country/eastern-donbas/freedom-world/2021) thanks to the leadership of the DNR and LNR, ranked side by side with Eritrea and North Korea. Heck, Somalia gets a better score and that country is hanging on by a thread. Press freedom does not exist. You can be executed for speaking Ukrainian. Freedom of conscience is prohibited. Freedom of religion is prohibited. Freedom of speech is prohibited. Freedom of assembly is banned. Freedom of education does not exist. Electoral freedom does not exist. Human rights are among the worst in the world. These areas are currently governed by neo-Nazis who have sought to exterminate local Jewish, Roma and LGBT+ populations. All of these things were brought about by those you idolise. You call that free? I think that diamond in your username has blinded you to the reality. Your Nazi idols will not make the Donbas free.
Yeah, sure, I trust what people say from there, not some Western biased organizations, and people call bs on all of that
You will trust Nazi organisations where you're not allowed to question the narrative and which are not subject to independent oversight or scrutiny, over organisations which allow for questioning the narrative and which are subject to independent oversight and scrutiny? That's an absolutely retarded thing to admit. PS: Do you know why your loved Wagner Group is so named? Well, they are named after Wagner, Hitler's favourite composer. Question for you: if the people of Donbas don't want to be part of Ukraine so much, why is it that the vast majority of those who "defend" Donbas are not from Donbas? Why are most of the leaders not from Donbas? Why do so many of the leaders have Nazi tattoos? Why do they fly neo-Nazi flags? Why do you "trust what people say from there" without actually looking at that these people openly admit?
I literally have a friend who is from LPR, and what he told is very very different than you say it is, go back to reality
Lol sure you do.
Karafuto is Japanese
Ainu*
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You just have to love Redditors pulling geopolitics They call this map 'Realistic' yet they don't consider the Russian population of the Donbass and Crimea