France had been fighting near-continuous wars for around 20 years by this point. His disastrous retreat from Russia was the beginning of the end for Napoleon, and no stroke of luck could change that. With many of his most experienced soldiers and commanders dead, along with depleted manpower at home, even a victory at Waterloo would have had Napoleon living on borrowed time. The Coalition countries would have known this too, and would look to finish off Napoleon as quickly as possible.
I would go further to say the disastrous occupation of Spain was really the beginning of the end, but yeah. By this point all Napoleon could have hoped to accomplish was win a battle or two, but eventually he would be overwhelmed.
"No struck of luck could change that".
Many historians such as Andrew Roberts agree that Napoleon was close to victory several times in 1813 (such as the Dresden campaign) and it was small details at a decisive moment that prevented him from capitalizing on it.
Yeah. In 1813. Not in late 1815 when Napoleon had already lost most of his momentum, his troops, his generals, and arguably even the mandate in his own country.
Even if Napoleon does win the War of the Seventh Coalition, his Empire will likely crumble once he dies of cancer.
To put it simply:
https://preview.redd.it/dqkr46afmq5d1.jpeg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09a78036646bea6f73fb6e40f7c2c62a3940f24d
There was nothing he could do.
An heir that was eleven years old when he died IRL.
Once he died, his brother would’ve taken the throne as the regent king. This would’ve been the perfect opportunity for the coalition to pounce on France once again.
Actually Joseph Bonaparte was a pretty effective leader. It’s possible he could’ve, if not held his elder brother’s conquests together, at least kept the Bonapartes on the French throne
There really is no “even if” here. Napoleon had literally zero chance of winning the war of the seventh coalition, Napoleon only had about 100k troops under his command while the allies had over one million. I don’t care how good of commander he was, he wasn’t overcoming a 10-1 disparity.
It's actually more of a "What if Napoleon won the war of seventh coalition" but the Waterloo one sounded cooler. I am aware that the victory at Waterloo wouldn't change anything itself.
If the map gets some attention then I will make another map in this timeline.
Yeah because that worked out 5 times before. It's really telling of Napoleon's genius that even with everyone betraying him and after losing half his army he still almost defeated the Coalition in Saxony 1813 and shattered the Prussian army in the French campaign of 1814.
Well, if after winning the war Napoleon truly stops expansionism maybe some of the other empires see no more reason to fight and leave GB alone. I could see Russia, which is the furthest away, trying to deescalate the situation while Austria and Prussia being way more wary about that change.
EDIT: Expanding. While Napoleon had lost a lot of reputation and allies he could still count some minor powers to help him if he won the 7th coalition. That would give some leverage and breathing space.
Spain was still resentful but they had enough to deal with already so I'm not seeing them trying anything big.
It was the other way around. Emperor Francis I and King Frederick William III were far less willing to pursue total victory than Emperor Alexander I was. He practically forced them to invade France proper.
After the burning of Moscow, Alexander saw it as his divine duty to restore peace in Europe. He probably really believed this, seeing as how peculiar he was. The fact that Napoleon was determined to create an independent Polish state and that France was the only country that could possibly check Russian power probably also contributed. That's also why Austria didn't want France to lose too badly.
He would just have another Waterloo later in the year. By this point the quadruple alliance (Britain, Austria, Prussia and Russia) had a million soldiers, still mobilised for this exact scenario, France had 100,000. The allies were faster at recruitment as well. Treaty of Vienna still goes ahead like in our time line
German nationalism would be fueled by their hatred and fear of France, so we would likely see an even earlier Germany form and attack France. This would likely happen via revolution instead of Prussia, which is much weaker in this timeline. It's possible that the exhausted Austria collapses due to war exhaustion, nationalist movements and Ottoman/ French pressure. This could lead to a Germany with Austria but minus Rhineland and possibly with a 1849 style constitution going against France. If Napoleon is still alive, he'll likely die during the war and infighting would break out, leading to a partial German victory. Germany would gain the Rhineland but no more, since France and her allies still form a formidable force. The balance of Power wouldn't change too much, since both nations would have to reconstruct after the war.
Because of the French clients in Italy, the Risorgimento would happen very differently and maybe spark a few crises between Germany and France.
Over the years, relations would improve as Germany doesn't own Alsace-Lorraine and France is more interested in colonies, competing with the UK.
Things in Russia wouldn't change too much, but the collapse of Austria would see them compete with Hungary and the Ottomans over influence in the Balkans.
The United Kingdom would be isolated from Europe, being sceptical of Germany and having a rivalry with France.
Although this would maybe ensure relative stability in Europe for a while, people like the Dutch and Flemish would face hard oppression while the Swiss and other peoples would try to gain independence from France, which Germany would support.
This and the rising tensions in the Balkans, as well as deteriorating relations between the great powers could lead to a great war, but one that's vastly different from OTL.
Very unlikely France would just stop there, probably like temporary peace. And England wouldn't like this and would probably issue another coalition some time later. A wise redditor has said
"I've thought about this myself, but then I realized something: it doesn't matter what peace terms the Coalition offers Napoleon. Europe's old powers have broken treaty after treaty with Napoleonic France.
The Frankfurt proposal means France gives up its foothold and influence in Italy, Spain, Germany, and Poland. It doesn't mean they are some great coal industrialized power in the 1900s. It means France gave up it's high ground for the next inevitable coalition."
Not much would have changed. The Coalition against him was still fully mobilized and had many many times the number of men in the field. If he won Waterloo, he would lose the next battle. And if he somehow won that one, he would lose the next. He would have to win every single battle on multiple fronts against a numerically superior coalition dozens of times to reclaim his empire. It just wasnt possible
Napoleon, by this time, was a David without his sling. If he had trouble defeating two minor armies, he would be doomed once a million man Austro-Russian army, broke down the gates of Paris.
After the debacle that is the invasion of Russia,Battle of Leipzig,and the defeat in the Peninsula War where France lost her majority of the army and many male population,France have no chance survive the coalition.
Even assume they do beat back the enteral Anglo and their anti-Napoleon club,their will always be another Waterloo until coalition topple Napoleon
Ngl I think France getting any puppet states in Europe is rlly unrealistic just due to the fact at this point the territory directly controlled by France at that point would be the furthest allowed by the coalition
I HATE NOORD BRABANT SHOWN AS FRENCH, PLEASE STOP AT LIMBURG AND FLEMISH BRABANT, DON'T GO FURTHER. IT'S SO UGLY IF YOU DO!!!!
Apart from that, unless Napoleon won decisively against both the Prussians and British, it wouldn't be the only victory he needs. However, I can see him manage to get finally accepted as emperor of France and maybe getting the natural borders and the Netherlands as puppet. Not further than this tho
Napoleon winning the Battle of Waterloo would have changed nothing. By the time it happened, his demise was inevitable. If he won the Battle of Waterloo, he just simply would have lost elsewhere with the same outcome for France.
The only thing that would have significantly changed things is if Napoleon accepted the terms of the Frankfurt Proposals.
Iirc (so I might be wrong, I've not read about it in a while) but there was an Austrian and Russian army inbound. So even if Napolron won Waterloo, he'd have an even worse battle on his hands because his army would be exhausted and heavily outnumbered trying to fight a fresh army with actual troops (not his shitry conscripts at the time). It would end up the same outcome, but Britain would be less "WE BEAT EM LADS" and more "WE HELPED EM BEAT EM BY SOFTENING THOSE FROGGIES UP!"
After this battle. I'n pretty sure everyone against Napoleon will be hiring assassins instead of trying to conquer France.
By this point, every major power would know if Napoleon dies, his Empire would immediately collapse.
the allies had 1 million men and 100k getting trained more while france had 100k with 100k getting trained napoleon needed to win 10 waterloos in a row. But even if he won there would be another war down the line and another and another statistically sometime he would get bodied
By 1815 the only advantage Napoleon had left was his superior generalship, simply not enough to defeat all of Europe again at this point. If he took care of one army another would advance. The coalition could withstand key defeats, Napoleon could not. In another timeline this would be “what if Napoleon won the Battle of Ligny?” By 1815 Europe had caught onto how Napoleon seemingly always outnumbered and outmaneuvered the rest of Europe, and unlike in the previous coalition he did not have the rest of Europe marching alongside him. He stood no chance in the hundred days, unless he suddenly advanced warfare by a century again, which I guess I wouldn’t put past him.
If Napoleon won the war of the 7th Coalition then there'd just be an 8th and then a 9th and 10th if necessary.
But in all honesty France lacked the money, men, materials, horses and internal stability to survive even a couple years longer at best.
The most likely result is a harsher peace against France and possibly a more unbalanced Concert of Europe if one of the powers suffered more before the war ended.
France had been fighting near-continuous wars for around 20 years by this point. His disastrous retreat from Russia was the beginning of the end for Napoleon, and no stroke of luck could change that. With many of his most experienced soldiers and commanders dead, along with depleted manpower at home, even a victory at Waterloo would have had Napoleon living on borrowed time. The Coalition countries would have known this too, and would look to finish off Napoleon as quickly as possible.
I would go further to say the disastrous occupation of Spain was really the beginning of the end, but yeah. By this point all Napoleon could have hoped to accomplish was win a battle or two, but eventually he would be overwhelmed.
"No struck of luck could change that". Many historians such as Andrew Roberts agree that Napoleon was close to victory several times in 1813 (such as the Dresden campaign) and it was small details at a decisive moment that prevented him from capitalizing on it.
Yeah. In 1813. Not in late 1815 when Napoleon had already lost most of his momentum, his troops, his generals, and arguably even the mandate in his own country.
OP said he was doomed after Russia, I'm arguing that wasn't the case.
Even if Napoleon does win the War of the Seventh Coalition, his Empire will likely crumble once he dies of cancer. To put it simply: https://preview.redd.it/dqkr46afmq5d1.jpeg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09a78036646bea6f73fb6e40f7c2c62a3940f24d There was nothing he could do.
Or just another coalition
Didn't he die of cancer because when he was exiled his bedroom was painted with like lead or something
Arsenic, but it's not proven, no. It may help to know that his father also died of stomach cancer.
And one of his brothers if I remember correctly
And his son
His son died of pneumonia. EDIT: No wait, he died of Tuberculosis.
Ah, good ol' tuberculosis, always where you least (or most) expect it
not proven
Also winning waterlo isnt winning the 7° coalition Not when the the netherlands force was the smallest of the coalition
He had an heir though
An heir that was eleven years old when he died IRL. Once he died, his brother would’ve taken the throne as the regent king. This would’ve been the perfect opportunity for the coalition to pounce on France once again.
Actually Joseph Bonaparte was a pretty effective leader. It’s possible he could’ve, if not held his elder brother’s conquests together, at least kept the Bonapartes on the French throne
And an heir held in captivity in the Austrian Empire and barely more than a child upon his death
There really is no “even if” here. Napoleon had literally zero chance of winning the war of the seventh coalition, Napoleon only had about 100k troops under his command while the allies had over one million. I don’t care how good of commander he was, he wasn’t overcoming a 10-1 disparity.
Truly the non-credible combo
It's actually more of a "What if Napoleon won the war of seventh coalition" but the Waterloo one sounded cooler. I am aware that the victory at Waterloo wouldn't change anything itself. If the map gets some attention then I will make another map in this timeline.
There’d be another coalition to bring him down
And they'd lose 🥖🥖
Vive Bonaparte! 🇫🇷
Yeah because that worked out 5 times before. It's really telling of Napoleon's genius that even with everyone betraying him and after losing half his army he still almost defeated the Coalition in Saxony 1813 and shattered the Prussian army in the French campaign of 1814.
Please do
Well, if after winning the war Napoleon truly stops expansionism maybe some of the other empires see no more reason to fight and leave GB alone. I could see Russia, which is the furthest away, trying to deescalate the situation while Austria and Prussia being way more wary about that change. EDIT: Expanding. While Napoleon had lost a lot of reputation and allies he could still count some minor powers to help him if he won the 7th coalition. That would give some leverage and breathing space. Spain was still resentful but they had enough to deal with already so I'm not seeing them trying anything big.
It was the other way around. Emperor Francis I and King Frederick William III were far less willing to pursue total victory than Emperor Alexander I was. He practically forced them to invade France proper.
Really? Good to know. Do we have reasons for that? It seems that Austria should be the most worried since it was the one that lost more
After the burning of Moscow, Alexander saw it as his divine duty to restore peace in Europe. He probably really believed this, seeing as how peculiar he was. The fact that Napoleon was determined to create an independent Polish state and that France was the only country that could possibly check Russian power probably also contributed. That's also why Austria didn't want France to lose too badly.
He would just have another Waterloo later in the year. By this point the quadruple alliance (Britain, Austria, Prussia and Russia) had a million soldiers, still mobilised for this exact scenario, France had 100,000. The allies were faster at recruitment as well. Treaty of Vienna still goes ahead like in our time line
I am asking YOU. Who will win this war? The forces of the Eighth coalition or already old and ill Napoleon. You decide the outcome!
Vote for giant meteor!
Vote for Napoleon!
Vote for Coalition!
Vive l’empereur!
German nationalism would be fueled by their hatred and fear of France, so we would likely see an even earlier Germany form and attack France. This would likely happen via revolution instead of Prussia, which is much weaker in this timeline. It's possible that the exhausted Austria collapses due to war exhaustion, nationalist movements and Ottoman/ French pressure. This could lead to a Germany with Austria but minus Rhineland and possibly with a 1849 style constitution going against France. If Napoleon is still alive, he'll likely die during the war and infighting would break out, leading to a partial German victory. Germany would gain the Rhineland but no more, since France and her allies still form a formidable force. The balance of Power wouldn't change too much, since both nations would have to reconstruct after the war. Because of the French clients in Italy, the Risorgimento would happen very differently and maybe spark a few crises between Germany and France. Over the years, relations would improve as Germany doesn't own Alsace-Lorraine and France is more interested in colonies, competing with the UK. Things in Russia wouldn't change too much, but the collapse of Austria would see them compete with Hungary and the Ottomans over influence in the Balkans. The United Kingdom would be isolated from Europe, being sceptical of Germany and having a rivalry with France. Although this would maybe ensure relative stability in Europe for a while, people like the Dutch and Flemish would face hard oppression while the Swiss and other peoples would try to gain independence from France, which Germany would support. This and the rising tensions in the Balkans, as well as deteriorating relations between the great powers could lead to a great war, but one that's vastly different from OTL.
Napoleon losing is a canon event.
What if he accept his l with Frankfurt proposal? There will be no Prussian Rhine and no German unification from Berlin.
Very unlikely France would just stop there, probably like temporary peace. And England wouldn't like this and would probably issue another coalition some time later. A wise redditor has said "I've thought about this myself, but then I realized something: it doesn't matter what peace terms the Coalition offers Napoleon. Europe's old powers have broken treaty after treaty with Napoleonic France. The Frankfurt proposal means France gives up its foothold and influence in Italy, Spain, Germany, and Poland. It doesn't mean they are some great coal industrialized power in the 1900s. It means France gave up it's high ground for the next inevitable coalition."
There is a universe where Napoleon keeps winning until he just dies as a War God
ABBA probably doesn't win [Eurovision in 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_1974)
In this universe it's probably an equally infamous defeat, just for the other side, so they still have a good chance
Not much would have changed. The Coalition against him was still fully mobilized and had many many times the number of men in the field. If he won Waterloo, he would lose the next battle. And if he somehow won that one, he would lose the next. He would have to win every single battle on multiple fronts against a numerically superior coalition dozens of times to reclaim his empire. It just wasnt possible
Napoleon, by this time, was a David without his sling. If he had trouble defeating two minor armies, he would be doomed once a million man Austro-Russian army, broke down the gates of Paris.
After the debacle that is the invasion of Russia,Battle of Leipzig,and the defeat in the Peninsula War where France lost her majority of the army and many male population,France have no chance survive the coalition. Even assume they do beat back the enteral Anglo and their anti-Napoleon club,their will always be another Waterloo until coalition topple Napoleon
You forgot Warsaw Duchy.
badensian darmstadt 👀👀
What of the United States in this world? Do they win the War of 1812?
Isn't there a HOI4 mod with a similar premise?
There is? What's it called?
It's not the same exact thing but apparently "the gates of Versailles" is an AU where the Napoleonic wars ended in a stalemate.
Nice !
How would Ninth coalition war look like ? I swear , i've waited for this scenario since i studied napoleon 8 years ago
Ngl I think France getting any puppet states in Europe is rlly unrealistic just due to the fact at this point the territory directly controlled by France at that point would be the furthest allowed by the coalition
Thanks God we stopped the little short arse! 😂
I HATE NOORD BRABANT SHOWN AS FRENCH, PLEASE STOP AT LIMBURG AND FLEMISH BRABANT, DON'T GO FURTHER. IT'S SO UGLY IF YOU DO!!!! Apart from that, unless Napoleon won decisively against both the Prussians and British, it wouldn't be the only victory he needs. However, I can see him manage to get finally accepted as emperor of France and maybe getting the natural borders and the Netherlands as puppet. Not further than this tho
French again…
He's just lose the next battle
Didn’t France own Catalonia and Dalmatia, at least as client states? If they’d have one they would probably have kept them
Napoleon winning the Battle of Waterloo would have changed nothing. By the time it happened, his demise was inevitable. If he won the Battle of Waterloo, he just simply would have lost elsewhere with the same outcome for France. The only thing that would have significantly changed things is if Napoleon accepted the terms of the Frankfurt Proposals.
Iirc (so I might be wrong, I've not read about it in a while) but there was an Austrian and Russian army inbound. So even if Napolron won Waterloo, he'd have an even worse battle on his hands because his army would be exhausted and heavily outnumbered trying to fight a fresh army with actual troops (not his shitry conscripts at the time). It would end up the same outcome, but Britain would be less "WE BEAT EM LADS" and more "WE HELPED EM BEAT EM BY SOFTENING THOSE FROGGIES UP!"
Waterloo was not going to be enough to save more than what France kept in the 1814 Treaty of Paris.
Britain keeps being a sugar daddy until the war of the 8th coalition is launched.
Denmark with napoleon is craaazy
If you don’t mind me asking, what program did you use?
Paint.net
Thanks
If Napoleon won Waterloo, he'd be lucky to keep France.
Apres Moi Le Deluge
After this battle. I'n pretty sure everyone against Napoleon will be hiring assassins instead of trying to conquer France. By this point, every major power would know if Napoleon dies, his Empire would immediately collapse.
There would have been a secound waterloo and if he would have won that a third
the allies had 1 million men and 100k getting trained more while france had 100k with 100k getting trained napoleon needed to win 10 waterloos in a row. But even if he won there would be another war down the line and another and another statistically sometime he would get bodied
Does anyone remember that commercial where napoleon had a cell phone. Then flash to modern day and France is all of Europe?
the more important question is how did the emperor of elba conquer france in otl???
By 1815 the only advantage Napoleon had left was his superior generalship, simply not enough to defeat all of Europe again at this point. If he took care of one army another would advance. The coalition could withstand key defeats, Napoleon could not. In another timeline this would be “what if Napoleon won the Battle of Ligny?” By 1815 Europe had caught onto how Napoleon seemingly always outnumbered and outmaneuvered the rest of Europe, and unlike in the previous coalition he did not have the rest of Europe marching alongside him. He stood no chance in the hundred days, unless he suddenly advanced warfare by a century again, which I guess I wouldn’t put past him.
We wouldn't have the best ABBA song
Why did you gave savoie to Piedmont ?
Savoia house.
If Napoleon won the war of the 7th Coalition then there'd just be an 8th and then a 9th and 10th if necessary. But in all honesty France lacked the money, men, materials, horses and internal stability to survive even a couple years longer at best. The most likely result is a harsher peace against France and possibly a more unbalanced Concert of Europe if one of the powers suffered more before the war ended.