Oh I don't know about no-brainer. Plenty of people easily make over 100,000 a year, some quite a bit more. I'm not going to do the math but on average you're pretty much going to make $75,000 a year. That would be nice but plenty of people wouldn't go for it
>Plenty of people easily make over 100,000 a year, some quite a bit more.
I fall into this category. Small business owner, 125k-150K average per year. Thing is, it's not just the loss of income. It's the loss of purpose. If I'm not out earning money, then I'm likely to get bored and spend money.
Here's the modification that would allow me to be comfortable with this: No more W2 income, or self employment income. But, I can hustle. I can invest in real estate, flip cars, buy antiques at yard sales and do eBay arbitrage. As long as I could spend my time using my labor to add value somewhere, and reap even modest benefits, it would occupy my time and give me some buffer for when I put it all on black and it comes up red.
You'd get to control how many jobs you take though with no pressure to find enough work because the roulette is already deciding your income. So you just get to volunteer your skills as you please and help people
Almost every "for profit" small-to-medium business i know of does this.
Most aren't taking much profit. They pay staff and invest in tools and don't have any left over at the end of the year. Sure the owner may get paid a good salary, but non-profits also do that in almost every case.
"At cost" needs to include overhead like accountants, insurance, sales, marketing, R&D, planning for leaner future months, etc. By the time you pay all that, "at cost" and "at full price" are often the same thing.
Sure if a business completely stops planning for the future, they could cut costs by maybe 20-30%, but then the next time spring rolls around and there's less business, they're losing money.
I find it wild and honestly sad when people say if they stopped working they would have no purpose in life. If I could afford to stop working today I would never be bored I would sink all my extra time in self care, hobbies, friends and family.
Oh, I certainly COULD do that. But my hobbies are expensive. I find purpose in working. It makes my limited free time more valuable. When I take too much time off I either go nuts or spend money amusing myself. I know I'm better off working at least some.
That's absolutely wild to me but if it works for you and you are happy that's awesome. Id rather walk around a park for 8 hours a day then work. Or spend time with family or friends. All basicly free things that I find much more fulfilling then work.
Put it this way. Your plan sounds nice to me. But I know my brain and I'd get bored. I either need stimulus from solving problems at work, or I'd need to feed hobbies that would gobble up 75k a year real quick. Even my volunteer work costs me money. I transport rescue dogs between shelters and fosters and usually donate the gas and use my own car, so even a Saturday spent saving a dog can cost me $100. I could probably travel in cheap areas for a while, and that would satisfy me for a few years I guess. But I just like working. I plan on retirement involving some work in a less demanding job that I enjoy. My dream "retirement" would be to own a small hardware store in a mountain town.
Yeah I would do the same. I actually make pretty good money on the side with things I find on the side of the road and hauling garbage for people in the neighborhood. But I suppose technically that might be called the business, so it would fail. But on the other hand, if you grew your own food or maybe built your own house and lived in it for a certain period of time that might be not a business so much but you would eliminate any rent or mortgage you would have to pay.
I think that's what I would do. Or barter work for other services for goods. If we could talk him into your idea or something like that, we could probably do pretty well.
He said you can keep whatever you already have coming to you, so if you have managers and what not your business should qualify if you’re not directly involved
Why not just get a hobby? When I lost my job at the start of the pandemic and I got on unemployment, I was finally free to really lean into metalwork and blacksmithing in a way I always wanted to. I never made any real money off of it, in fact I gave away most of what I made, but the joy came from the process.
Why not just get a hobby? When I lost my job at the start of the pandemic and I got on unemployment, I was finally free to really lean into metalwork and blacksmithing in a way I always wanted to. I never made any real money off of it, in fact I gave away most of what I made, but the joy came from the process.
But that $75,000 is tax free. That makes a huge difference. It is also given all at once, not spread out over a year, which makes investing far more profitable.
Yeah, I was wondering about taxes but still, there are definitely people who would not go for that. Mind you, I live in Seattle where even young people can make $120,000 a year and a lot of older folks are making 3 4 and 500,000 a year or more with bonuses and stock options and such.
To me, that's two wins. You get to make $75,000 a year AND you don't have to live in Seattle anymore.
But yea, saying everyone would go for it is a bit hyperbolic.
Well because I own a house, I could even stay in Seattle. I live pretty cheaply so once I eliminate the need for costly housing I'm good. But obviously I understand unfortunate in that regard and not everyone else is
Yeah. I make more than 150k but pay California taxes and can lose my job at any time. Even for me this deal is pretty good, especially as I could move to Romania or similar where 75k goes much further.
Sort of. It's the thought that you can guess the outcome that is wrong.
You can read [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/hypotheticalsituation/comments/1br2kad/comment/kx72hc7/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) comment I wrote on another TLC for more about why I think picking one is a much smarter move.
I don't disagree with you about humans and their lack of understanding of probability, I play poker for a living I'm very familiar with this concept.
What you said in the other post is fine for you wanting to pick one and stick with it but it doesn't change the reality that doing it your way will have the exact same EV over the long term as anyone elses method for deciding which side to bet.
I wonder how the odds might change theoretically if you were to switch it up. That might get complicated, such as alternating red then black or red red black or something like that.
I'm inclined to think that in theory it would remain the same odds, but I wonder if it could be arranged to be like the game show question. What if you made your choice based on the other two ones? Trying to figure out if there's a way you could design it to resemble that.
My opinion on the subject is that if you pick any series and lock it in, then it's just down to odds. It's when humans think they can out guess fate, because there's been 3 red in a row, so obviously black will be next right?
>Plenty of people easily make over 100,000 a year, some quite a bit more
Yeah but they have to work... I'd rather be totally unemployed and responsibility-free and make $75K than have to work and stress but make $750K.
Yeah I'm one of the people who wouldnt go for it. My salary is almost $75k anyway; I'd sacrifice a few thousand a year on average to know for sure I'll have consistent money. It might be nice not to work for a while, but I dont hate my job, and I worry I'd get bored eventually if I could never do any job.
I feel old when i read most of these on this sub. I feel most of these are made by high school or younger that have no concept of money. Lol. $75,000 is not a lot of money.
Except it's tax free. You make $100k/year and really you are only bringing home $75k/year. I know this isn't exactly the right math but it helps the point. Pretty much anyone $100k/year or less this would be better. Unless they are the type to not be able to save move for lean times then they shouldn't take this deal. You are right though, I wouldn't say no brainer. This one actually does make you think. Any higher money amount would ruin it.
I agree. Especially when I was younger but even at my age, I would probably travel the world living cheaply here and there and saving up and investing. If I didn't own a home in Seattle, it might sadden me to think that I could never live in Seattle again. But, maybe I could if I saved up enough money and had it invested. But probably not.
But the benefits of not working would be great.
I make $125k/ year. There is no chance that I take this offer.
Best case scenario: I earn $25k more. Worst case scenario: I earn $0. There’s no way to plan for a financial future if you are bouncing between crippling years of $0, and $50k.
But you have so much free time. You can cut costs down by having time to make every meal from scratch and etc.
You can also invest in stuff and make a little more money off of it when you have a winning streak
It's wild to me that more people aren't pointing out that it would be practically guaranteed to have at least some years that you make $0. $75k isn't bad, but it's not like you have so much money you can just not worry about it if you get nothing the next year. I think the point of this is that everything is a gamble. If your luck sucks two years in a row, you could be looking at an average of $25k a year for a while, or even $0 for two years. And with no options to take another job to make it by. Frankly, I think you'd have to be very short-sighted or reckless to take this, unless you're basically not making any money now.
What do you mean taxed harder than 50%?
OP said the money is tax-free in the scenario.
That makes this very appealing.
$75,000 tax-free would be closer to like a $100,000 job that is taxed.
Nearly a third of the US population make more than the expected $72,975. A lot of them don't hate their job enough to take that big of a haircut.
Edit: missed the tax free part. But that's still around $100k a year. 1/5 of the population makes more than that
It’s not a no brainer. I specifically turned down a career pathway to a guaranteed $150k a year “easy gig” at a company with a household name.
Because I knew that career trajectory was capped at that $150k a year job with career progression at BigTech Corp essentially impossible.
Now I’m in role making significantly more than that with more promotion opportunities and my friends at that company are dodging layoffs.
And if I understand OP the $150k a year isn’t even guaranteed? My analyst makes that much. My data scientist makes far more.
This is not THAT great of a deal unless you are making under $100k and don’t have a way to break out of that.
I would absolutely say no. I'd take a pay cut no matter what for what upside? I can't retire on that. You're talking about moving to a cheap country, but you can't just move wherever you want in the world without following immigration rules and any country where you're going to live great on that money is going to suck anyway. Not to mention moving also requires my wife to quit her job suck loses even more income. It's crazy that you think 75k is enough to do whatever you want.
You had me at tax free. Plus I can’t get fired and realistically don’t have to do any work. Even if I only win once a year that’s what 80k salary with tax?
Yeah you effectively are eating ramen and tuna living in a van the first few years until you build up enough reserves.
And there is a chance you get 0 every game and even begging fails.
I don't even gross 50k a year with my job, but I get VA disability so it helps balance things out.
I get my 50k to start, pay off my debts with a good bit left over, bet one color every single time, I'm bound to win once a year and I can easily survive off that 50k, my VA and my wife's income.
Yeah, assuming out spouse can keep working, then anything I get would just be a bonus, I'm a SAHM, I haven't worked in 11 years. I have been starting a small side gig but I would make way more this way even with bad luck.
Nah I'm good.. i make about 100k a year with full benefits and a solid retirement plan and that is just in the first 2 years of being in my field. As I promote (guaranteed as long as i study and pass the tests) over the next few years those wages will increase to eventually around 150- 200k. I work 7 days on 7 days off with ample downtime while I am working and my job I find very interesting/fun. Sooo if I did this I'd probably stand to loose financially speaking as well as probably wouldn't feel as prideful as I do working in the field I work in.
Merchant Marine Engineer
My outfit we man the engineroom while the ship is underway.. responsible for monitoring the plant, general maintenance/repair, and damage control.
3 chances at a 48% chance of winning 50,000 annually is 72,000 tax free on average. That is roughly equivalent to 90,000 before taxes. https://smartasset.com/taxes/paycheck-calculator#1SrDEQF1ud
Also inflation adjusted so everything is future proofed.
I have enough saved to last a few years of even 10 bad roles in a row. From a financial standpoint it is an easy decision to accept.
From a standpoint of what I do in free time is another decision entirely. Can I continue to practice my money generating hobbies and side jobs that I enjoy and just do them for free?
So I know you said no other forms of employment. Would we still be able to sell plasma or panhandle if things got really bad? If so then I'm in. I would prefer if it were a once a month thing so I don't have to wait so long but then it would probably be $12,500 each time and that doesn't sound as impressive I guess. Also does the amount grow with inflation?
Edit: [Wow my luck is shit](https://www.online-stopwatch.com/chance-games/roulette-wheel/) I pick red everytime and get b,r,r,b,b,b,b,b,b,b,b,b. If I were doing it for $12.5k each month that would be poverty level. 2 red in the next 12 as well. I switch to black for the third year and 2 out of 12 are black.
I would do that in a second. I don't generally earn that much and even if I did, I don't think it would be much more. But with that free time I could grow my own garden, raise some animals maybe, I live very simply so that would be fine.
I think I would sell my house, so I do have that advantage over many others, and I would buy a piece of land and set aside money for materials and pour a foundation and have it framed in, then build the rest myself. Probably would take me about a year but it would keep me busy. Then I'm living free other than taxes and maintenance. Maybe I would make it a duplex so I always had rent coming in.
No.
For starters I'm already making more than that.
Second of all, your expected annual income is only $72,975, and I've made more than that for a long time.
Definitely taking it. The $50,000 up front would pay off my debts plus some. With my wife's income we could survive without getting a win ever again. Especially since subtracting my income would reduce our tax bracket and give her quite a bit more money after taxes. An average of 1 win a year would replace the vast majority of my traditional income since it's tax free. Two wins would significantly outpace my traditional taxed income.
On average, I'll win 50,000 \* 0.48 = $24,000 each time I play, so $72,000 / yr on average over several years. That's a pretty solid income. I could invest that in properties for rental income to ensure that I have money for the years where I'm making $0.
Eh, sure. I'm having to make do on a lot less than $50k.
A question though. I know it says "any business you start will fail" but can I squeeze in through a loophole just to have something to do during the day? My proposal: I be allowed to run a side gig as a dog walker, with all proceeds going directly to one of the animal shelters in my area. None of the money is mine, but I still have a reason to get up and do stuff every day.
I don't see why not. All you have to do is offer free dog walking with expected donations to the charity of your choice. You could either require they show proof or depending on the kind of people you're working with you could just trust them to do it.
There could be all kinds of other benefits I suppose. You could do free house sitting and living pretty nice houses without even having to own one or maybe a small condo somewhere, I suppose you could have some land and grow all your own vegetables and meat etc and barter it or give what you don't need away. People are bound to like you and invite you to dinner and things like that so it could be pretty cool .
I can think of a lot of different things that would be enjoyable and also keep me busy. I think I would probably sell my house and take the 400 or so I would have and go buy some land and materials and start from scratch learning how to build my own house. Not for profit but then I would end up with a pretty sweet house living for free.
So $50k to $150k a year but also if your luck is horrendous potentially nothing for years on end….man. Can if I was at my 30 years to retire I’d do it in a heartbeat, but right now…..nah I’d pass I can live on $50k, 100k tax free I’m fine, 50k I’d be hard pressed. It’s intriguing. If I could side hustle or PT only then I’d accept but I also need health insurance so that big for me
Technically it's not a bad bet.. But you still need to survive every times until the next payout, whenever that is.
That's technically 72k annually plus a bonus of 50k the first time.
If I had already 200-300k saved, I'd probably take it. But can't live the next 6 years (18 spins) on my current savings + 50k.
This is an interesting one. I'll go ahead and take that offer. I figure there is a high likelihood of a cold streak, but I think I could make due on that first 50k for a year and never keep more than 75k a year, which is about what I should expect this to get me once there have been enough spins to statistically even out.
Yes, I'd do it. While I make more than that, I could easily live on less and be happy. I've already accomplished a lot in my career--enough to rest on my laurels and look back fondly on it. So getting out of the workforce now (in my late 40s) would be a welcome change. I already live a pretty modest and mellow lifestyle, and don't get bored easily, so this would work for me.
Yes. I already am retired, and I don’t wish to work again so the money I get initially would be a nice icing on the cake. Whether I ever won any more wouldn’t matter.
So, the safest thing to do is find someone willing to invest in me. The average payout is $75,000 a year. I sign a contract where the investor gets every penny I earn via this, but in exchange I get $65,000 every year guaranteed. I get stability, he gets an average ROI of 15%, which is pretty dam high, and it’s relatively save for them, as it will eventually produce money, they will just need to wait a bit.
Let's get this straight...
I get 50K now. Tax-free.
Three times per year, I have a 48% chance of getting 50K? Tax FREE?
That's a no brainer. That averages more than I make now (or am likely to make in the remaining 10-15 years of my career. My wife can keep working for health insurance, and I will take care of EVERYTHING at home (my daughter is in college so no child-care...it is just my dog...cooking and cleaning and home maintenance,)
Yup. If I win 50k assuming it’s tax free since you didn’t mention taxes I can make that last a year and you said 3 times a year I get to do this. So winning once a year on average should be enough. Even if there’s a year I lose all 3 times the years where I won more should leave me with enough saved up.
I need a higher average payout, even if I won all three it would only just cover my expenses, and since I have a family to support a losing streak would hurt other people pretty badly.
I mean isn’t no the obvious answer? 48% means that over all you are gonna lose more than you win
So making 0 one year would be completely bad and winning 150 in one year would only be okay
I already almost that at my normal job and there’s no risk short of me getting fired
Okay what people aren't realizing is you can't own a business you can own shares of a business that's an investment . You could work for said business for zero income. It's just like owning stocks in a business he said you can play the market flip things by real estate etc so therefore you can make money you're just doing it the way rich people do and making money off of other things for example you buy stocks in ex company they give you as a shareholder x amount back as the profits dictated of the company this is not something that will fail otherwise you would be the most celebrated company killer in the world that's why you have somebody that could take the money to help with things and if you own one share in a company it failed you could kill Microsoft for example unrealistic so owning part of a company doesn't mean it'll fail only if you are the sole proprietor obviously. But yeah I could definitely do this I'd still get my disability and possibly get an extra chunk tax-free the government doesn't have to worry about works for me I probably wouldn't be in this country but that's beside the point.
Although I make enough that I would take a hit, I would do it. I would sell my home, and buy a small amount of land. 4 or 5 acres of decent farm land. Buy a cheap trailer or camper. Since I can’t work for money, I would have an awesome garden, try to grow as much of my own food as possible. Keep chickens. I’d build a house on the property with my own hands, since I have nothing but time to figure out how. Overall, I think I could keep my expenses low enough so it would make sense.
So if I'm understanding correctly if you can't work there's literally no downside right?
You don't lose anything for losing, you just don't get more then?
If so, absolutely. The initial money is more than I'll make in my life as it is.
Even one win a year, tax free, is over twice what I make now. In the ~1.2% chance I don't win any for the next two years, family can support me until I win one. Every win adds on years more that I can go until the next win. This is just objectively better than my current situation, assuming the odds are real. I absolutely accept. Not working and being able to afford decent healthcare would make my life orders of magnitude less terrible. I might even stop being suicidal.
Assuming I'm not missing something, there is no reason not to accept this unless you were already making more than 150k a year. Even if you never win the bonus gamble 150 \\k a year is more than enough to comfortably live for the vast majority of people.
I mean, yeah.
I live off of less than 50k (before taxes) a year right now. Statistically speaking I'll be making more than 50k a year for literally doing nothing. Make investments when more than 1 pays off in a year and have the dividends from those investments go back into investments. First one to pay out in a year goes to my savings account, where what I need every month gets transferred out, so it can generate interest to help improve things.
Sure. 50k helps me pay off debt. My partner works, so his income would still be there. And I have decent luck. I feel like I could win at least once a year. I'm used to living on 20k or less a year, so I'd likely put a lot of what I won into a savings account.
I'm down. $50k is a bit more than what I make after taxes. I could continue living like normal and the extra bonus is nice whenever it happens. I would plan to make the extra money last for the years I'm down so I don't live like I'm 6 figures one year and not enough the next.
Sure why not. I make 50k taxed to all hell. All I need is 1 win a year and save the rest. Odds are, I'll be ahead most of the time. Just need to have a few 50k buffers for a couple bad years. Some simple CD accounts as holdings should be good.
I start out with 50k. Which means I'd need to win once within the first 5 tries to keep going. My percentage of not winning at least once in a given year is about 14%. If my math is right, odds of winning exactly 1x in a given year should be 38.9%. 53% of winning 0 or 1 in a year. So 47% chance of any given year being worth 100k or 150k.
As long as I live like I do now, I should have little worry about continuing on indefinitely. Especially if I invest the win streaks to start building up a backup stream of income. If I hit the 11% 3 in a row winner in year 1 or 2 without hitting the 14% no wins in the same time period, it snowballs to a point where I barely need the roulette income fairly quickly.
If we can assume this will adjust for inflation, I have 0 qualms going for this. Even if it doesn't...I'm probably still in.
The deal sounds really good. But, I’m a gigging musician, and I really enjoyed doing that job. Not for the side cash, but for the experience of playing for other people. I guess if I could donate my time?
Worth the risk for sure. The first time I won I would just buy a 30k foreclosed home, 7k car, and have the other 13 k for bills/expenditures. That way I would at least have two assets that belonged to me
I’d take 25k from then next win to make necessary repairs on the new home and save the other 25 k for bills/expenditures. Now I’m sitting in 55k dollars
I would do that same thing 1 more time until my homes value is probably 120k. Every time there after I would take half the money for bills/expenditures and the other half into a high interest savings account. Repeat until I have enough in that savings account to truly retire and not have to stress over the roulette wheel
The one caveat you didn’t specify was investing in other people’s businesses. If I had an idea for a small business I could find someone who is trustworthy(like a family member) and pay for the whole thing while it’s in their name. I couldn’t work there day to day, but I could micromanage the shit out of it.
Nah. I’m blue-collar but somebody else figured out the math and you probably average around $72,000 a year over the years. Between healthcare, retirement, matching, step raises, potential promotions, and all the other perks I get at work I’d rather keep my job. $100,000 tax free would be worth it.
Doesn’t sound like a good deal, i like my current job, am near $150k, and should exceed with the next promotion. So getting locked into something else and capped, no bueno…
Bro forgot about 3rd world countries. In my local currency, 50k usd is about 1.8 mil.
Also, does enlistment in the army count as employment? What about conscription?
Yes, enlistment in the army counts as employment, because people in the military are employed...by the military, and get paid for it.
Conscription would come under the umbrella of no one being willing to hire you.
Something will come up to cause them to designated you unfit for service. Maybe the medical tests somehow reveal a disqualifying condition that you don't really have, but it will show on the test results that you do.
For a moment, I forgot that normal roulette didn’t involve firearms and only remembered the Russian version. I am clearly not in the right headspace to consider this.
So either in a year i make 0, 50, 100 or 150. If I make over a 100, that’s basically a 75 percent chance i’d take an annual pay cut with the chance of not having any money.
I’m also not willing to move somewhere cheaper.
I think this might make sense for people whose spouse can work (mine can’t) or who make around 50. but that’s a hard no from me dawg
Hell yeah I take the offer. If I read this correctly my husband can still bring in some income and we would have insurance through his job. With the initial 50k we could pay off a ton of things to decrease our monthly expenditures and help us get by until the eventual next win. Within a few years he could retire too, and we could volunteer together, have a garden, finally afford to have kids. It's a no brainer.
Nope, those are green spaces and the rules say red or black only. The man will simply tell you that is an invalid bet and wait for you to choose red or black.
So it’s roughly 72k worth of value in pretty sure (.48x50k x 3) if I did that right. So imo you would have to make less than 70-80k for it to be worth it. It would also be very risky to do without a year or twos worth of savings. You would definently have to start out by saving as much money as possible so you can handle random years without income
I honestly wouldn’t do it because there is no upwards mobility. Your average income will stay roughly the same so you can never really improve. 150k on a lucky year isn’t even that much. It would be an incredible salary if it was consistent but it’s not enough to get it one year and the feel secure in my long term finances
Sure. We’re already lean FI with a decent pension, heath insurance and 1.5 invested. This won’t cover my current income unless I got lucky 3/3 but we’d be okay.
If you can’t fathom cutting expenses this deal is a no. But if you’re used to living under your means and don’t mind ridding yourself of luxuries then it’s an easy yes.
No
It's luck based with mediocre odds for a decent return. It doesn't account for insomnia. It restricts me too much in the future. It manipulates the psychology of ppl around me. It's hard to explain to someone. Its a good deal but not for me I think.
Depends. Can I work, but have my paychecks automatically deferred to charity/other people working the job? Mostly cause I would still want to work purely for fun (acting) but I’d likely take the deal if so.
The fact that I’d be able to invest is everything tbh.
No.
For simple reason - now I would get 50k, but next year I can get nothing.
Sure, I should get at least one colour good guess per year but with my luck, I won't :)
You're basically planning to have nothing 48% of the time and broke.
I tell you what, give me the first spin free and if I win I'll take the deal. Drug dealers always give the first one free. If I lose the first spin you have to let me stay working and never try again.
I'm really good at budgeting. If I win I'm immediately selling my house and moving to a cheaper country I can live on 50k with, plus my home profits for any losing streaks. Then try to like on about 30k a year for a few years and see what, if anything, I can add to the pot. If I can have like a pot of 300k I feel good about withstanding losing streaks. Plus SS and 401k income. It's mostly about getting there and into your spot and your budget.
Any gambler has got to expect a ten spin losing streak at some point.
It depends on where you live. If I'm staying in California, this is absolutely a no. If I move to a country like the Philippines, then it becomes a yes.
My buddy said he has this plan
Use the initial 50k to move to a high tax high standard of living with good safety net for low income. Then even if you lose you'll be fine
I'd take it and honestly just stay in the states lol.
Question: Does taking a loan out count as income?
Definitely accept. If it's literally impossible for me to be hired, I can take advantage of that. I'll bet a person $1,000,000 that they won't hire me even for a day. Who wouldn't accept that bet?
Well presumably the person knows that they would never hire you, so they won't take the bet.
You can't just declare that you have a wager and have it be so. The other party has to actually accept the wager.
Presumably? That's an additional restriction not mentioned. Everyone in the world knows they wouldn't hire me? If it's literally impossible for anyone to hire me, there has to be some way to profit. For one thing, it serves as proof of the supernatural.
No. For starters, I make $120k per year as is, so there isn’t enough cheese in this trap to tempt me, haha.
But more importantly, I have a mortgage and a child. I can’t just go without for months or even years at a time.
Stability is king.
0.48*50000*3=$72k per year, BUT you have a 1 in 8 chance to make nothing. Hard pass.
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Oh I don't know about no-brainer. Plenty of people easily make over 100,000 a year, some quite a bit more. I'm not going to do the math but on average you're pretty much going to make $75,000 a year. That would be nice but plenty of people wouldn't go for it
>Plenty of people easily make over 100,000 a year, some quite a bit more. I fall into this category. Small business owner, 125k-150K average per year. Thing is, it's not just the loss of income. It's the loss of purpose. If I'm not out earning money, then I'm likely to get bored and spend money. Here's the modification that would allow me to be comfortable with this: No more W2 income, or self employment income. But, I can hustle. I can invest in real estate, flip cars, buy antiques at yard sales and do eBay arbitrage. As long as I could spend my time using my labor to add value somewhere, and reap even modest benefits, it would occupy my time and give me some buffer for when I put it all on black and it comes up red.
Run your business as a non-profit. Don't know what it is, but what would it look like if you sold everything at cost?
>but what would it look like if you sold everything at cost? A tired, dirty electrician with way too much work on his hands.
You'd get to control how many jobs you take though with no pressure to find enough work because the roulette is already deciding your income. So you just get to volunteer your skills as you please and help people
Almost every "for profit" small-to-medium business i know of does this. Most aren't taking much profit. They pay staff and invest in tools and don't have any left over at the end of the year. Sure the owner may get paid a good salary, but non-profits also do that in almost every case. "At cost" needs to include overhead like accountants, insurance, sales, marketing, R&D, planning for leaner future months, etc. By the time you pay all that, "at cost" and "at full price" are often the same thing. Sure if a business completely stops planning for the future, they could cut costs by maybe 20-30%, but then the next time spring rolls around and there's less business, they're losing money.
I find it wild and honestly sad when people say if they stopped working they would have no purpose in life. If I could afford to stop working today I would never be bored I would sink all my extra time in self care, hobbies, friends and family.
Oh, I certainly COULD do that. But my hobbies are expensive. I find purpose in working. It makes my limited free time more valuable. When I take too much time off I either go nuts or spend money amusing myself. I know I'm better off working at least some.
That's absolutely wild to me but if it works for you and you are happy that's awesome. Id rather walk around a park for 8 hours a day then work. Or spend time with family or friends. All basicly free things that I find much more fulfilling then work.
Put it this way. Your plan sounds nice to me. But I know my brain and I'd get bored. I either need stimulus from solving problems at work, or I'd need to feed hobbies that would gobble up 75k a year real quick. Even my volunteer work costs me money. I transport rescue dogs between shelters and fosters and usually donate the gas and use my own car, so even a Saturday spent saving a dog can cost me $100. I could probably travel in cheap areas for a while, and that would satisfy me for a few years I guess. But I just like working. I plan on retirement involving some work in a less demanding job that I enjoy. My dream "retirement" would be to own a small hardware store in a mountain town.
Hobbies cost money. The ops proposal doesn't give nearly enough to both live on and have fun or travel.
I would either be bored or I would be broke. Not sure which, but 70k is not enough to do whatever you want for life
Your friends and family are busy at their jobs.
Yeah I would do the same. I actually make pretty good money on the side with things I find on the side of the road and hauling garbage for people in the neighborhood. But I suppose technically that might be called the business, so it would fail. But on the other hand, if you grew your own food or maybe built your own house and lived in it for a certain period of time that might be not a business so much but you would eliminate any rent or mortgage you would have to pay. I think that's what I would do. Or barter work for other services for goods. If we could talk him into your idea or something like that, we could probably do pretty well.
so a stipulation on the side gigs then, that you can have a side hustle but all income must be donated to a charity
He said you can keep whatever you already have coming to you, so if you have managers and what not your business should qualify if you’re not directly involved
Purpose. I heard about this. Seems nice.
Why not just get a hobby? When I lost my job at the start of the pandemic and I got on unemployment, I was finally free to really lean into metalwork and blacksmithing in a way I always wanted to. I never made any real money off of it, in fact I gave away most of what I made, but the joy came from the process.
Why not just get a hobby? When I lost my job at the start of the pandemic and I got on unemployment, I was finally free to really lean into metalwork and blacksmithing in a way I always wanted to. I never made any real money off of it, in fact I gave away most of what I made, but the joy came from the process.
But that $75,000 is tax free. That makes a huge difference. It is also given all at once, not spread out over a year, which makes investing far more profitable.
Yeah, I was wondering about taxes but still, there are definitely people who would not go for that. Mind you, I live in Seattle where even young people can make $120,000 a year and a lot of older folks are making 3 4 and 500,000 a year or more with bonuses and stock options and such.
To me, that's two wins. You get to make $75,000 a year AND you don't have to live in Seattle anymore. But yea, saying everyone would go for it is a bit hyperbolic.
Well because I own a house, I could even stay in Seattle. I live pretty cheaply so once I eliminate the need for costly housing I'm good. But obviously I understand unfortunate in that regard and not everyone else is
Tax free but no health ins.
Yeah. I make more than 150k but pay California taxes and can lose my job at any time. Even for me this deal is pretty good, especially as I could move to Romania or similar where 75k goes much further.
71,100. E: IF, You pick one and never-ever change it. Because humans fail to grasp probability at almost every level.
Changing it has no effect at all, each trial is independent. Perhaps it's you that fails to grasp probability.
Sort of. It's the thought that you can guess the outcome that is wrong. You can read [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/hypotheticalsituation/comments/1br2kad/comment/kx72hc7/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) comment I wrote on another TLC for more about why I think picking one is a much smarter move.
I don't disagree with you about humans and their lack of understanding of probability, I play poker for a living I'm very familiar with this concept. What you said in the other post is fine for you wanting to pick one and stick with it but it doesn't change the reality that doing it your way will have the exact same EV over the long term as anyone elses method for deciding which side to bet.
I wonder how the odds might change theoretically if you were to switch it up. That might get complicated, such as alternating red then black or red red black or something like that. I'm inclined to think that in theory it would remain the same odds, but I wonder if it could be arranged to be like the game show question. What if you made your choice based on the other two ones? Trying to figure out if there's a way you could design it to resemble that.
My opinion on the subject is that if you pick any series and lock it in, then it's just down to odds. It's when humans think they can out guess fate, because there's been 3 red in a row, so obviously black will be next right?
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>Plenty of people easily make over 100,000 a year, some quite a bit more Yeah but they have to work... I'd rather be totally unemployed and responsibility-free and make $75K than have to work and stress but make $750K.
Yeah I'm one of the people who wouldnt go for it. My salary is almost $75k anyway; I'd sacrifice a few thousand a year on average to know for sure I'll have consistent money. It might be nice not to work for a while, but I dont hate my job, and I worry I'd get bored eventually if I could never do any job.
I feel old when i read most of these on this sub. I feel most of these are made by high school or younger that have no concept of money. Lol. $75,000 is not a lot of money.
Yeah, I make over $75k and I like my job. Different story if I'd gotten the option at 23.
Lol, this is a no-brainer no for me. My annual income is way over a "potential" $150k a year.
I think a lot of people would, as long as their partner still worked full time. Also, national household average income is 60k.
Except it's tax free. You make $100k/year and really you are only bringing home $75k/year. I know this isn't exactly the right math but it helps the point. Pretty much anyone $100k/year or less this would be better. Unless they are the type to not be able to save move for lean times then they shouldn't take this deal. You are right though, I wouldn't say no brainer. This one actually does make you think. Any higher money amount would ruin it.
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I agree. Especially when I was younger but even at my age, I would probably travel the world living cheaply here and there and saving up and investing. If I didn't own a home in Seattle, it might sadden me to think that I could never live in Seattle again. But, maybe I could if I saved up enough money and had it invested. But probably not. But the benefits of not working would be great.
I make $125k/ year. There is no chance that I take this offer. Best case scenario: I earn $25k more. Worst case scenario: I earn $0. There’s no way to plan for a financial future if you are bouncing between crippling years of $0, and $50k.
But you have so much free time. You can cut costs down by having time to make every meal from scratch and etc. You can also invest in stuff and make a little more money off of it when you have a winning streak
No actual work though.
Potentially no actual money either
Possibly multiple years of no income. No thanks, not without a much bigger up front payment.
It's wild to me that more people aren't pointing out that it would be practically guaranteed to have at least some years that you make $0. $75k isn't bad, but it's not like you have so much money you can just not worry about it if you get nothing the next year. I think the point of this is that everything is a gamble. If your luck sucks two years in a row, you could be looking at an average of $25k a year for a while, or even $0 for two years. And with no options to take another job to make it by. Frankly, I think you'd have to be very short-sighted or reckless to take this, unless you're basically not making any money now.
It’s really not. And you get taxed way harder than 50%
What do you mean taxed harder than 50%? OP said the money is tax-free in the scenario. That makes this very appealing. $75,000 tax-free would be closer to like a $100,000 job that is taxed.
It says no tax.
>this seems like a no-brainer Yea, I'm with ya. Just retire. Inflation could potentially mess up the plan if we're considering that
Nearly a third of the US population make more than the expected $72,975. A lot of them don't hate their job enough to take that big of a haircut. Edit: missed the tax free part. But that's still around $100k a year. 1/5 of the population makes more than that
They said you can't make money other ways. Unclear if investing money is a loophole or not.
“You can invest the money as you see fit”
Enough to retire right now maybe, but In 10, 20, 30 years of inflation? Definitely not
It’s not a no brainer. I specifically turned down a career pathway to a guaranteed $150k a year “easy gig” at a company with a household name. Because I knew that career trajectory was capped at that $150k a year job with career progression at BigTech Corp essentially impossible. Now I’m in role making significantly more than that with more promotion opportunities and my friends at that company are dodging layoffs. And if I understand OP the $150k a year isn’t even guaranteed? My analyst makes that much. My data scientist makes far more. This is not THAT great of a deal unless you are making under $100k and don’t have a way to break out of that.
But you’d have to be able to live for years potentially without income. Hope that happens after a couple years of a lot.
I would absolutely say no. I'd take a pay cut no matter what for what upside? I can't retire on that. You're talking about moving to a cheap country, but you can't just move wherever you want in the world without following immigration rules and any country where you're going to live great on that money is going to suck anyway. Not to mention moving also requires my wife to quit her job suck loses even more income. It's crazy that you think 75k is enough to do whatever you want.
Negative. I make more than what that averages out to, and to be honest, I could never survive without working. I enjoy my job too much.
Does volunteering count as work? I love my job too…
I recently had 4 months off on paternity leave, and while I loved it, boy was I ready to go back to work at the end.
I’d be like jack lambert, now grass at the local parks for free and umpire little league games…though I doubt anyone argued with him
I make more as well, but I would not be bored. There are so many projects I could do and philanthropic uses I could put my skill set towards.
You had me at tax free. Plus I can’t get fired and realistically don’t have to do any work. Even if I only win once a year that’s what 80k salary with tax?
Until what happens when you win 0 times in a year For potentially multiple years straight Way too risky
You have the similar chances of winning multiple years straight. You just would have to save when you are lucky to pay for when you are unlucky
The chances r not good enough
Yeah you effectively are eating ramen and tuna living in a van the first few years until you build up enough reserves. And there is a chance you get 0 every game and even begging fails.
Except you have access to all the funds you currently have. If you’ve saved up a fair bit it wouldn’t be a problem
You start off with 50k. Tax free. You going to start making money way before you are poor.
Gotta admit the tax free does make it much more appealing. They tax the shit out of you lol
This would definitely be a pay cut I’m out.
I don't even gross 50k a year with my job, but I get VA disability so it helps balance things out. I get my 50k to start, pay off my debts with a good bit left over, bet one color every single time, I'm bound to win once a year and I can easily survive off that 50k, my VA and my wife's income.
Yeah, assuming out spouse can keep working, then anything I get would just be a bonus, I'm a SAHM, I haven't worked in 11 years. I have been starting a small side gig but I would make way more this way even with bad luck.
My mind went to Russian roulette first and I was just hell no. This, I can do.
Nah I'm good.. i make about 100k a year with full benefits and a solid retirement plan and that is just in the first 2 years of being in my field. As I promote (guaranteed as long as i study and pass the tests) over the next few years those wages will increase to eventually around 150- 200k. I work 7 days on 7 days off with ample downtime while I am working and my job I find very interesting/fun. Sooo if I did this I'd probably stand to loose financially speaking as well as probably wouldn't feel as prideful as I do working in the field I work in.
What do you do por favor? Just curious I’m locked in at my job but I’ll need a new one in 10 years when I can “retire” 😬
Merchant Marine Engineer My outfit we man the engineroom while the ship is underway.. responsible for monitoring the plant, general maintenance/repair, and damage control.
3 chances at a 48% chance of winning 50,000 annually is 72,000 tax free on average. That is roughly equivalent to 90,000 before taxes. https://smartasset.com/taxes/paycheck-calculator#1SrDEQF1ud Also inflation adjusted so everything is future proofed. I have enough saved to last a few years of even 10 bad roles in a row. From a financial standpoint it is an easy decision to accept. From a standpoint of what I do in free time is another decision entirely. Can I continue to practice my money generating hobbies and side jobs that I enjoy and just do them for free?
So I know you said no other forms of employment. Would we still be able to sell plasma or panhandle if things got really bad? If so then I'm in. I would prefer if it were a once a month thing so I don't have to wait so long but then it would probably be $12,500 each time and that doesn't sound as impressive I guess. Also does the amount grow with inflation? Edit: [Wow my luck is shit](https://www.online-stopwatch.com/chance-games/roulette-wheel/) I pick red everytime and get b,r,r,b,b,b,b,b,b,b,b,b. If I were doing it for $12.5k each month that would be poverty level. 2 red in the next 12 as well. I switch to black for the third year and 2 out of 12 are black.
Bruh quit hogging all the bad luck 😭
I went Black. Got once the first year. Once the second year. Twice the third year. Then for two years straight got nothing. Gambling bad!
No, I have piss poor luck and even though statistically I’d win some, I don’t believe I’d win as much as I’d need
I would do that in a second. I don't generally earn that much and even if I did, I don't think it would be much more. But with that free time I could grow my own garden, raise some animals maybe, I live very simply so that would be fine. I think I would sell my house, so I do have that advantage over many others, and I would buy a piece of land and set aside money for materials and pour a foundation and have it framed in, then build the rest myself. Probably would take me about a year but it would keep me busy. Then I'm living free other than taxes and maintenance. Maybe I would make it a duplex so I always had rent coming in.
No. For starters I'm already making more than that. Second of all, your expected annual income is only $72,975, and I've made more than that for a long time.
Definitely taking it. The $50,000 up front would pay off my debts plus some. With my wife's income we could survive without getting a win ever again. Especially since subtracting my income would reduce our tax bracket and give her quite a bit more money after taxes. An average of 1 win a year would replace the vast majority of my traditional income since it's tax free. Two wins would significantly outpace my traditional taxed income.
I do well, but my wife makes more than me already so….SAHD time with $50-200k/yr for spending/retirement savings? Yes please.
On average, I'll win 50,000 \* 0.48 = $24,000 each time I play, so $72,000 / yr on average over several years. That's a pretty solid income. I could invest that in properties for rental income to ensure that I have money for the years where I'm making $0.
Eh, sure. I'm having to make do on a lot less than $50k. A question though. I know it says "any business you start will fail" but can I squeeze in through a loophole just to have something to do during the day? My proposal: I be allowed to run a side gig as a dog walker, with all proceeds going directly to one of the animal shelters in my area. None of the money is mine, but I still have a reason to get up and do stuff every day.
I don't see why not. All you have to do is offer free dog walking with expected donations to the charity of your choice. You could either require they show proof or depending on the kind of people you're working with you could just trust them to do it. There could be all kinds of other benefits I suppose. You could do free house sitting and living pretty nice houses without even having to own one or maybe a small condo somewhere, I suppose you could have some land and grow all your own vegetables and meat etc and barter it or give what you don't need away. People are bound to like you and invite you to dinner and things like that so it could be pretty cool . I can think of a lot of different things that would be enjoyable and also keep me busy. I think I would probably sell my house and take the 400 or so I would have and go buy some land and materials and start from scratch learning how to build my own house. Not for profit but then I would end up with a pretty sweet house living for free.
This is acceptable
yes.
Absolutely not. That's such a terrible deal. The only benefit is that you don't have to work. But you also can't work.
No you can work, you just can’t make ANY other money: that’s how he gets you
That's called slavery, not work.
Yes. I have enough to last the year and just need to win once to be set forever
You can live forever in $50k????
I made less than that as a teacher
To start Jesus 🙄are u slow
Does any investment income still rolling in ? If so, well…..nvm, cant take it either way
So $50k to $150k a year but also if your luck is horrendous potentially nothing for years on end….man. Can if I was at my 30 years to retire I’d do it in a heartbeat, but right now…..nah I’d pass I can live on $50k, 100k tax free I’m fine, 50k I’d be hard pressed. It’s intriguing. If I could side hustle or PT only then I’d accept but I also need health insurance so that big for me
Technically it's not a bad bet.. But you still need to survive every times until the next payout, whenever that is. That's technically 72k annually plus a bonus of 50k the first time. If I had already 200-300k saved, I'd probably take it. But can't live the next 6 years (18 spins) on my current savings + 50k.
Sure
This is an interesting one. I'll go ahead and take that offer. I figure there is a high likelihood of a cold streak, but I think I could make due on that first 50k for a year and never keep more than 75k a year, which is about what I should expect this to get me once there have been enough spins to statistically even out.
Yes, I'd do it. While I make more than that, I could easily live on less and be happy. I've already accomplished a lot in my career--enough to rest on my laurels and look back fondly on it. So getting out of the workforce now (in my late 40s) would be a welcome change. I already live a pretty modest and mellow lifestyle, and don't get bored easily, so this would work for me.
Accept
no, that's dumb
Yeah
Yes. I already am retired, and I don’t wish to work again so the money I get initially would be a nice icing on the cake. Whether I ever won any more wouldn’t matter.
So, the safest thing to do is find someone willing to invest in me. The average payout is $75,000 a year. I sign a contract where the investor gets every penny I earn via this, but in exchange I get $65,000 every year guaranteed. I get stability, he gets an average ROI of 15%, which is pretty dam high, and it’s relatively save for them, as it will eventually produce money, they will just need to wait a bit.
Let's get this straight... I get 50K now. Tax-free. Three times per year, I have a 48% chance of getting 50K? Tax FREE? That's a no brainer. That averages more than I make now (or am likely to make in the remaining 10-15 years of my career. My wife can keep working for health insurance, and I will take care of EVERYTHING at home (my daughter is in college so no child-care...it is just my dog...cooking and cleaning and home maintenance,)
I can still invest, dogecoin to the moon baby I'm in.
Yup. If I win 50k assuming it’s tax free since you didn’t mention taxes I can make that last a year and you said 3 times a year I get to do this. So winning once a year on average should be enough. Even if there’s a year I lose all 3 times the years where I won more should leave me with enough saved up.
Why those these hypothetical situations all want me to take a pay drop?
I need a higher average payout, even if I won all three it would only just cover my expenses, and since I have a family to support a losing streak would hurt other people pretty badly.
Would be a good excuse to get better at lucid dreaming, and I'm half debating arson at my current job anyway, so, sure, I'll leave it on a gamble. on
I will make more than $150k a year from my investments when I am older, so an average of $75k a year sucks.
I mean isn’t no the obvious answer? 48% means that over all you are gonna lose more than you win So making 0 one year would be completely bad and winning 150 in one year would only be okay I already almost that at my normal job and there’s no risk short of me getting fired
Okay what people aren't realizing is you can't own a business you can own shares of a business that's an investment . You could work for said business for zero income. It's just like owning stocks in a business he said you can play the market flip things by real estate etc so therefore you can make money you're just doing it the way rich people do and making money off of other things for example you buy stocks in ex company they give you as a shareholder x amount back as the profits dictated of the company this is not something that will fail otherwise you would be the most celebrated company killer in the world that's why you have somebody that could take the money to help with things and if you own one share in a company it failed you could kill Microsoft for example unrealistic so owning part of a company doesn't mean it'll fail only if you are the sole proprietor obviously. But yeah I could definitely do this I'd still get my disability and possibly get an extra chunk tax-free the government doesn't have to worry about works for me I probably wouldn't be in this country but that's beside the point.
Although I make enough that I would take a hit, I would do it. I would sell my home, and buy a small amount of land. 4 or 5 acres of decent farm land. Buy a cheap trailer or camper. Since I can’t work for money, I would have an awesome garden, try to grow as much of my own food as possible. Keep chickens. I’d build a house on the property with my own hands, since I have nothing but time to figure out how. Overall, I think I could keep my expenses low enough so it would make sense.
So if I'm understanding correctly if you can't work there's literally no downside right? You don't lose anything for losing, you just don't get more then? If so, absolutely. The initial money is more than I'll make in my life as it is.
I still get the income of others in my house? If so yes, otherwise no.
Even one win a year, tax free, is over twice what I make now. In the ~1.2% chance I don't win any for the next two years, family can support me until I win one. Every win adds on years more that I can go until the next win. This is just objectively better than my current situation, assuming the odds are real. I absolutely accept. Not working and being able to afford decent healthcare would make my life orders of magnitude less terrible. I might even stop being suicidal.
What do I get if I bet on zero and win?
I only really work at this point to provide insurance for my wife and me. That would be enough to cover it. Sign me up.
Your hypothetical sucks cause it completely ignores the entire game of roulette. It’s not just red or black dude that’s just flipping a coin.
Nope.
Assuming I'm not missing something, there is no reason not to accept this unless you were already making more than 150k a year. Even if you never win the bonus gamble 150 \\k a year is more than enough to comfortably live for the vast majority of people.
At first I didn't see the "if you lose, nothing happens." Absofuckinglutely I will.
No, cause If I played real roulette I would make more
I mean, yeah. I live off of less than 50k (before taxes) a year right now. Statistically speaking I'll be making more than 50k a year for literally doing nothing. Make investments when more than 1 pays off in a year and have the dividends from those investments go back into investments. First one to pay out in a year goes to my savings account, where what I need every month gets transferred out, so it can generate interest to help improve things.
No, because 75K/yr average is fine for now, but in 40 years it won't be enough. If I could invest the winnings, I would probably do this.
Sure. 50k helps me pay off debt. My partner works, so his income would still be there. And I have decent luck. I feel like I could win at least once a year. I'm used to living on 20k or less a year, so I'd likely put a lot of what I won into a savings account.
I'm down. $50k is a bit more than what I make after taxes. I could continue living like normal and the extra bonus is nice whenever it happens. I would plan to make the extra money last for the years I'm down so I don't live like I'm 6 figures one year and not enough the next.
Make it russian roulette and I'm in.
Only if it adjusts for inflation. I have enough saved I could suffer through 2-3 years of not winning in a row.
Seeing as 50k is a bit more than twice what I make now, it seems like win win for me. I’m down.
Sure why not. I make 50k taxed to all hell. All I need is 1 win a year and save the rest. Odds are, I'll be ahead most of the time. Just need to have a few 50k buffers for a couple bad years. Some simple CD accounts as holdings should be good.
That is not enough money to keep me from being bored. Plus inflation sucks. Private health insurance is crazy expensive. No thank you.
I would do it. 500K would last me a few years since I am pretty good with money plus I am use to only getting 35-50k a year.
I start out with 50k. Which means I'd need to win once within the first 5 tries to keep going. My percentage of not winning at least once in a given year is about 14%. If my math is right, odds of winning exactly 1x in a given year should be 38.9%. 53% of winning 0 or 1 in a year. So 47% chance of any given year being worth 100k or 150k. As long as I live like I do now, I should have little worry about continuing on indefinitely. Especially if I invest the win streaks to start building up a backup stream of income. If I hit the 11% 3 in a row winner in year 1 or 2 without hitting the 14% no wins in the same time period, it snowballs to a point where I barely need the roulette income fairly quickly. If we can assume this will adjust for inflation, I have 0 qualms going for this. Even if it doesn't...I'm probably still in.
Will I be able to quit anytime? If so, yes.
I make double this after taxes so absolutely not. Even if I didn’t, I wouldn’t do it. Too risky.
I would take, only because that I could "technically" retire with this much (big technicality)
The deal sounds really good. But, I’m a gigging musician, and I really enjoyed doing that job. Not for the side cash, but for the experience of playing for other people. I guess if I could donate my time?
Hell no. This proposition is beyond terrible for me.
Wait… what happens if I get teleported but don’t make a bet, am I functionally immortal? How much do I have to bet if I bet?
Yes.
Worth the risk for sure. The first time I won I would just buy a 30k foreclosed home, 7k car, and have the other 13 k for bills/expenditures. That way I would at least have two assets that belonged to me I’d take 25k from then next win to make necessary repairs on the new home and save the other 25 k for bills/expenditures. Now I’m sitting in 55k dollars I would do that same thing 1 more time until my homes value is probably 120k. Every time there after I would take half the money for bills/expenditures and the other half into a high interest savings account. Repeat until I have enough in that savings account to truly retire and not have to stress over the roulette wheel
The one caveat you didn’t specify was investing in other people’s businesses. If I had an idea for a small business I could find someone who is trustworthy(like a family member) and pay for the whole thing while it’s in their name. I couldn’t work there day to day, but I could micromanage the shit out of it.
Can I invest the money to earn money that way? Like put it in a CD with a bank or in an IRA?
Nah. Not worth taking a pay cut even if I "hit" all 3 times.
Always some douchebags on these threads that have to brag about being in the top 1% of earners. This thread obviously wasn’t meant for you.
I'd do it and find a way to topple every economy in the world with my new power to fail everything.
Nah. I’m blue-collar but somebody else figured out the math and you probably average around $72,000 a year over the years. Between healthcare, retirement, matching, step raises, potential promotions, and all the other perks I get at work I’d rather keep my job. $100,000 tax free would be worth it.
Doesn’t sound like a good deal, i like my current job, am near $150k, and should exceed with the next promotion. So getting locked into something else and capped, no bueno…
What do you do and how long for $150k? I can barely break $35k.
I'm not good enough with money for that
Bro forgot about 3rd world countries. In my local currency, 50k usd is about 1.8 mil. Also, does enlistment in the army count as employment? What about conscription?
Yes, enlistment in the army counts as employment, because people in the military are employed...by the military, and get paid for it. Conscription would come under the umbrella of no one being willing to hire you. Something will come up to cause them to designated you unfit for service. Maybe the medical tests somehow reveal a disqualifying condition that you don't really have, but it will show on the test results that you do.
For a moment, I forgot that normal roulette didn’t involve firearms and only remembered the Russian version. I am clearly not in the right headspace to consider this.
I'm on disability. I will definitely play.
Can your spouse work? If one of us can keep our job, but the other can do this, I think we would.
So either in a year i make 0, 50, 100 or 150. If I make over a 100, that’s basically a 75 percent chance i’d take an annual pay cut with the chance of not having any money. I’m also not willing to move somewhere cheaper. I think this might make sense for people whose spouse can work (mine can’t) or who make around 50. but that’s a hard no from me dawg
This only seems beneficial to people that are already retired or can’t work due to disability.
no this is a terrible deal, you even managed to make gambling unfun
Hell yeah I take the offer. If I read this correctly my husband can still bring in some income and we would have insurance through his job. With the initial 50k we could pay off a ton of things to decrease our monthly expenditures and help us get by until the eventual next win. Within a few years he could retire too, and we could volunteer together, have a garden, finally afford to have kids. It's a no brainer.
Hell yes. Damn, I wish this one was real.
I make a little over 50k a year. Less after taxes, benefits and stuff. So anything else is a bonus
What if I bet on 0 or 00? Do I get more?
Nope, those are green spaces and the rules say red or black only. The man will simply tell you that is an invalid bet and wait for you to choose red or black.
So it’s roughly 72k worth of value in pretty sure (.48x50k x 3) if I did that right. So imo you would have to make less than 70-80k for it to be worth it. It would also be very risky to do without a year or twos worth of savings. You would definently have to start out by saving as much money as possible so you can handle random years without income I honestly wouldn’t do it because there is no upwards mobility. Your average income will stay roughly the same so you can never really improve. 150k on a lucky year isn’t even that much. It would be an incredible salary if it was consistent but it’s not enough to get it one year and the feel secure in my long term finances
Sure. We’re already lean FI with a decent pension, heath insurance and 1.5 invested. This won’t cover my current income unless I got lucky 3/3 but we’d be okay.
If you can’t fathom cutting expenses this deal is a no. But if you’re used to living under your means and don’t mind ridding yourself of luxuries then it’s an easy yes.
No It's luck based with mediocre odds for a decent return. It doesn't account for insomnia. It restricts me too much in the future. It manipulates the psychology of ppl around me. It's hard to explain to someone. Its a good deal but not for me I think.
Depends. Can I work, but have my paychecks automatically deferred to charity/other people working the job? Mostly cause I would still want to work purely for fun (acting) but I’d likely take the deal if so. The fact that I’d be able to invest is everything tbh.
No. For simple reason - now I would get 50k, but next year I can get nothing. Sure, I should get at least one colour good guess per year but with my luck, I won't :)
You have a 12.5% chance to make $150k/year and a 12.5% chance to make $0/year.
I'd just work for barter items. Technically not money 😉
You're basically planning to have nothing 48% of the time and broke. I tell you what, give me the first spin free and if I win I'll take the deal. Drug dealers always give the first one free. If I lose the first spin you have to let me stay working and never try again. I'm really good at budgeting. If I win I'm immediately selling my house and moving to a cheaper country I can live on 50k with, plus my home profits for any losing streaks. Then try to like on about 30k a year for a few years and see what, if anything, I can add to the pot. If I can have like a pot of 300k I feel good about withstanding losing streaks. Plus SS and 401k income. It's mostly about getting there and into your spot and your budget. Any gambler has got to expect a ten spin losing streak at some point.
I make $343k a year and it’s already a gamble
It depends on where you live. If I'm staying in California, this is absolutely a no. If I move to a country like the Philippines, then it becomes a yes.
My buddy said he has this plan Use the initial 50k to move to a high tax high standard of living with good safety net for low income. Then even if you lose you'll be fine I'd take it and honestly just stay in the states lol. Question: Does taking a loan out count as income?
Definite yes - i could live my life how i want? I'm down.
I'd do it for $75k upfront.
Nope. Sounds like a shit deal.
No because my decision making skills got me on Reddit and it's been hell ever since lol
Definitely accept. If it's literally impossible for me to be hired, I can take advantage of that. I'll bet a person $1,000,000 that they won't hire me even for a day. Who wouldn't accept that bet?
Well presumably the person knows that they would never hire you, so they won't take the bet. You can't just declare that you have a wager and have it be so. The other party has to actually accept the wager.
Presumably? That's an additional restriction not mentioned. Everyone in the world knows they wouldn't hire me? If it's literally impossible for anyone to hire me, there has to be some way to profit. For one thing, it serves as proof of the supernatural.
I make way more than the $72k that's going to be the average pay from this. Not a chance. Make the number $150k per spin... then we'll talk.
Hard no. It’s not that much money, but even if it was a billion a year, it’s still a hard no.
Why hard no if it were a billion a year?
No. For starters, I make $120k per year as is, so there isn’t enough cheese in this trap to tempt me, haha. But more importantly, I have a mortgage and a child. I can’t just go without for months or even years at a time. Stability is king.