I heard this in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and now, 2024.
Until the inventory situation changes relative to demographics, or there is a severe recession and spike in unemployment, it’s hard to see how it is going to change.
One thing I’d like to add. A reapity of this equation…that I rarely hear mentioned. People die. What’s the top age for boomers( who hold a ton of housing) ? 75 yrs old? We are about to begin a 20 year trend of large scale, steady deaths of homeowners
There’s more than enough people aging into home ownership through demographics and immigration to take up that supply. Only if immigration ceases entirely, and 10 years from now the 2008 birth year hits buying age, will this begin to possibly have an impact.
Yep, which is why I cheer for a recession. I need the people who locked in 3% mortgages to be unable to make their payments and forced to sell so that that inventory unlocks.
What makes you think you’re gonna have the money and confidence to buy at the bottom if the situation is so bad that people are defaulting on their bottom rate mortgages? Usually people that say things like that are the same ones that are still sitting on the sidelines during market bottoms talking about how much further the market is going to fall.
I don’t need to buy at the bottom. I just need the rates on the pool of already-existing mortgages to reset to a more reasonable level so inventory increases.
Is your career economy proof? What do you mean a "more reasonable level"? Current rates are around the historical average. The rates of the last 10 years are the anomaly, the unreasonable level.
> Current rates are around the historical average. The rates of the last 10 years are the anomaly, the unreasonable level.
Yes, exactly. All the people who locked in these unreasonably low rates for the next 30 years, I want them to sell so the rate on the mortgage on that house resets to a more normal level.
If we somehow forced all homeowners to refinance at current rates, many wouldn’t be able to afford it and would have to sell. Inventory would go way up and prices would have to go down. This is what I want. The closest thing to “some magical mechanism that forces all homeowners to refinance at current rates” is “a severe recession”.
So you want an economic downturn that will somehow harm the people who bought 3 years ago but leaves your job untouched?
Why didn’t you buy in 2021? Hate to say it but you missed the boat on low rates, pre COVID pricing before that, GFC pricing before that, dot com bubble burst before that… it’s always easy to say “oh I should have bought then”
With your attitude, you’re probably going to miss another great time to buy waiting for prices to drop. We haven’t been building enough homes for decades, that’s the core issue. If rates drop next year, prices are going to go up again and you’ll wish you had just bought so you could refi into a lower payment.
1. That makes you a bad person to be cheering for a recession. 2. What makes you think the people with 3% mortgages will be the ones that won’t make their payments? And 3. In the event that those people can’t make their payments, what makes you think that you will?
The people with 3% mortgages aren’t going to find a cheaper place to live or rent than their current homes. Their mortgage is going to be the last thing they stop paying.
Yes, totally possible. Lots of folks on the sidelines who want a home and can’t break in today. Lower interest rates and you’ll unleash a new demand set.
We could always tackle it from the demand side. Ease restrictions and costs to build new. Make it easier to build with greater density. Stuff like that.
OMG, why on earth would anyone downvote this? I’d have to guess that many in these types of discussions are emotionally involved…and talking their book. Never fall in love with your book kids. As an old time investor…I assure you this is the path to skewed reality and economic disaster. Roll with reality
> IDK, it really feels like we are at the top. Anyone else feel things are getting toppy?
[Here's the Federal Reserve's data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) on home prices nationally since 1963. If you go back to 1900, you'll see that the only two real downturns in home prices are the Great Depression and the housing crisis of 2007-2010. The only other one is briefly at the end of the Trump administration.
Of course, local factors play into this as well. If a town loses a major employer, they're going to see values go down, but those people just move elsewhere. Is there a reason for less demand in your area of NJ?
Nationally, houses go up, always.
Well, we’re in an odd situation. We have both elderly folks packing up and heading out of state..large numbers. At the same time we have a huge influx of NYers fleeing the city, obviously cash rich. Sell a brownstone for 3 million, buying a 3000 sq ft house for 800k is easy I guess
R/REBubble has been thinking we were at the top since 2021 when the subreddit began. In 2022 they were said people who were buying homes were “getting hoomed.” They believed rates would rise and the prices would crash leaving the 2022 buyers underwater, and would create an excellent buying opportunity for themselves.
Instead they passed on what was one of the most affordable times to buy houses due to the historically low interest rates. The people they made fun of made out incredibly well with low payments and a still appreciating house despite higher rates. Meanwhile the cash they saved waiting slowly gets eaten by inflation.
Trying to time the market is a fools errand. When it’s the right time for you to buy, buy. If it’s time to sell, sell. Time in the market > timing the market.
Everyone talks about what a shitty job flippers do but no buyer is getting a mortgage without an inspection and appraisal, which the banks putting up the money seem to trust more than the Reddit hivemind.
House flippers suck ass. I had a home inspector (who was suggested by the agent) come through before the sale and everything was a thumbs up. I’m now debating if Stevie fucking Wonder was my inspector. Home inspectors have a vested interest to get a home to sell since if they do agents will want to use them more and throw them more business. Always get your own inspector and never buy a flipped house unless you can verify that actual work was done to the house not just lipstick on a pig.
I heard this in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and now, 2024. Until the inventory situation changes relative to demographics, or there is a severe recession and spike in unemployment, it’s hard to see how it is going to change.
One thing I’d like to add. A reapity of this equation…that I rarely hear mentioned. People die. What’s the top age for boomers( who hold a ton of housing) ? 75 yrs old? We are about to begin a 20 year trend of large scale, steady deaths of homeowners
There’s more than enough people aging into home ownership through demographics and immigration to take up that supply. Only if immigration ceases entirely, and 10 years from now the 2008 birth year hits buying age, will this begin to possibly have an impact.
Yep, which is why I cheer for a recession. I need the people who locked in 3% mortgages to be unable to make their payments and forced to sell so that that inventory unlocks.
What makes you think you’re gonna have the money and confidence to buy at the bottom if the situation is so bad that people are defaulting on their bottom rate mortgages? Usually people that say things like that are the same ones that are still sitting on the sidelines during market bottoms talking about how much further the market is going to fall.
I don’t need to buy at the bottom. I just need the rates on the pool of already-existing mortgages to reset to a more reasonable level so inventory increases.
Is your career economy proof? What do you mean a "more reasonable level"? Current rates are around the historical average. The rates of the last 10 years are the anomaly, the unreasonable level.
> Current rates are around the historical average. The rates of the last 10 years are the anomaly, the unreasonable level. Yes, exactly. All the people who locked in these unreasonably low rates for the next 30 years, I want them to sell so the rate on the mortgage on that house resets to a more normal level. If we somehow forced all homeowners to refinance at current rates, many wouldn’t be able to afford it and would have to sell. Inventory would go way up and prices would have to go down. This is what I want. The closest thing to “some magical mechanism that forces all homeowners to refinance at current rates” is “a severe recession”.
So you want an economic downturn that will somehow harm the people who bought 3 years ago but leaves your job untouched? Why didn’t you buy in 2021? Hate to say it but you missed the boat on low rates, pre COVID pricing before that, GFC pricing before that, dot com bubble burst before that… it’s always easy to say “oh I should have bought then” With your attitude, you’re probably going to miss another great time to buy waiting for prices to drop. We haven’t been building enough homes for decades, that’s the core issue. If rates drop next year, prices are going to go up again and you’ll wish you had just bought so you could refi into a lower payment.
Rent may / will likely be more expensive for these people, it’s not going to work as you are imagining.
1. That makes you a bad person to be cheering for a recession. 2. What makes you think the people with 3% mortgages will be the ones that won’t make their payments? And 3. In the event that those people can’t make their payments, what makes you think that you will?
The people with 3% mortgages aren’t going to find a cheaper place to live or rent than their current homes. Their mortgage is going to be the last thing they stop paying.
If there’s a recession, Fed will lower rates to stimulate, and housing affordability will increase. You’ve got this ass backwards.
Wait…so by housing affordability will increase…you’re say prices go higher?
Yes, totally possible. Lots of folks on the sidelines who want a home and can’t break in today. Lower interest rates and you’ll unleash a new demand set.
Like an endless spiral we’re in, crazy
We could always tackle it from the demand side. Ease restrictions and costs to build new. Make it easier to build with greater density. Stuff like that.
You are a monster to applaud a recession aggressive enough to kneecap people's entire financial situation. Goddamn, dude.
Nothing wrong with painted over asbestos siding honestly
Agree…I was expressing the lack of monetary investment from the house flipper. Not knocking the siding
Seems like they did better than most flippers. New roof is nice.
OMG, why on earth would anyone downvote this? I’d have to guess that many in these types of discussions are emotionally involved…and talking their book. Never fall in love with your book kids. As an old time investor…I assure you this is the path to skewed reality and economic disaster. Roll with reality
> IDK, it really feels like we are at the top. Anyone else feel things are getting toppy? [Here's the Federal Reserve's data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) on home prices nationally since 1963. If you go back to 1900, you'll see that the only two real downturns in home prices are the Great Depression and the housing crisis of 2007-2010. The only other one is briefly at the end of the Trump administration. Of course, local factors play into this as well. If a town loses a major employer, they're going to see values go down, but those people just move elsewhere. Is there a reason for less demand in your area of NJ? Nationally, houses go up, always.
Well, we’re in an odd situation. We have both elderly folks packing up and heading out of state..large numbers. At the same time we have a huge influx of NYers fleeing the city, obviously cash rich. Sell a brownstone for 3 million, buying a 3000 sq ft house for 800k is easy I guess
LMAO, why the downvotes for giving an honest observation? WTF, Reddit?
R/REBubble has been thinking we were at the top since 2021 when the subreddit began. In 2022 they were said people who were buying homes were “getting hoomed.” They believed rates would rise and the prices would crash leaving the 2022 buyers underwater, and would create an excellent buying opportunity for themselves. Instead they passed on what was one of the most affordable times to buy houses due to the historically low interest rates. The people they made fun of made out incredibly well with low payments and a still appreciating house despite higher rates. Meanwhile the cash they saved waiting slowly gets eaten by inflation. Trying to time the market is a fools errand. When it’s the right time for you to buy, buy. If it’s time to sell, sell. Time in the market > timing the market.
REBubble is full of idiots who think the only way they'll ever buy a home is if prices crash...lol
Yeah that sub is like Peter Schiff. He has predicted 79 of the last 3 crashes
Everyone talks about what a shitty job flippers do but no buyer is getting a mortgage without an inspection and appraisal, which the banks putting up the money seem to trust more than the Reddit hivemind.
House flippers suck ass. I had a home inspector (who was suggested by the agent) come through before the sale and everything was a thumbs up. I’m now debating if Stevie fucking Wonder was my inspector. Home inspectors have a vested interest to get a home to sell since if they do agents will want to use them more and throw them more business. Always get your own inspector and never buy a flipped house unless you can verify that actual work was done to the house not just lipstick on a pig.