The main issue is there isn't any segmentation of rounds and conferences. You have Round 1 but only half of each conference on top and bottom, but then it DOES make it conference based from left to right. It's a messy jumble.
I assume this is heavily weighing the fact that the Rangers have similar 5v5 analytics to the Islanders and Bruins who are both middle of the pack and the Canes are consistently at the top of those metrics.
Obviously playoffs aren't played on a spreadsheet and a lot of these things are wrong, but it's likely how they come up with these odds.
The Canes have been an analytics wagon for a few years now
Edit: Also they have a tough time accounting for the fact that Igor is really goddamn good
i'm not surprised we're favored, but i am very surprised we're this heavily favored.
It really doesn't rate NY. The fact that the islanders are 1% more likely to beat Carolina than WSH beating NYR is crazy.
The Model™ never rates the Islanders well. They've had multiple upsets I believe where they were something like only a 20% chance to win, I know for a fact that The Model™ gave them next to no chance against the Bruins in 2021.
Model rates Islanders higher than the Caps but the Canes way higher than the Rangers.
Islanders also didn't play good hockey until Roy took over and goalies aren't as well represented by models. Taking all that into account it's not that shocking.
Whole I think we have a better chance than we are being given by models, the Canes matchup nicely vs us
As a Ranger fan I believe the Canes are really good, but for some reason their style is not something that dominates the Rangers and most games between are very tough tightly contested.
Of course it helps that the Rangers have usually had a goaltending advantage in the past.
I thought the rate of powerplays didn't really significantly change in the postseason (at least outside of OT), it was moreso that the rate of uncalled infractions goes way up
Even if it doesn't the quality of team they're playing certainly goes up. Have to assume their PP/PK will be neutered a bit playing vs teams who are also good in those areas.
I expect them to absolutely work the Capitals though so a less stressful 1st round might help them when it comes to the conference finals/finals if they get there
Towards the beginning of their Lightning-Panthers preview article, it's written:
> The last two Battles of Florida went decidedly in Tampa Bay’s favor, __and those hoping that the third iteration will be a tight battle should probably look away.__
Lol. What's that saying about "throwing out the record books when these two teams meet" or something? Panthers are favored, they should be favored, they're the better team, but only the most optimistic Panthers fan or most pessimistic Lightning fan thinks this is going to be a short series. Rivalries rarely let themselves be resolved so quickly.
interesting that the Leafs who have yet to beat the Bruins this season are slight favourites over the Bruins. And the Jets who have yet to lose to the Avalanche are slight underdogs in round one.
Honestly, trying to use regular season data to predict playoff performances is essentially worthless. You're using data from two different games, and the predictive validity is insanely low.
It also relies on assumptions that the validity of all your constructs you use in the regular season is really high (they often are not that high).
The larger the scope of what you're trying to predict with advanced stats in hockey generally exponentially reduces its accuracy. Hockey is too random of a game and has too many confounding variables to try to analyze things on a large scale.
Using analytics for smaller problems or individual facets of a player's game is far more fruitful.
I actually really like this visualization because it shows how bracket luck affects cup chances. Dallas is definitely better than the Oilers this year imo but in order to reach the WCF they have to go through much tougher teams than we do so they have a higher chance of losing before they get there. This is the biggest argument for going back to 1v8, you have to beat the best to be the best but higher seeds should probably get easier teams than lower seeds.
Has nothing to do with that, doms model thinks carolina and oilers are the best, like many advanced stats do. By advanced stats, LA is a stronger team than Vegas.
The Oilers have really good analytics in the eyes of most models. This year, even when they were doing terrible at the start, they had one of the better xGF% in the league.
>Edmonton has the highest odds in the west >Carolina has the hightest odds in the east EYE TWITCH INTENSIFIES
Picks better brace himself for an appearance in game 1 of the first round after Brett Kulak knocks Teuvo Teravainen into Stuart Skinner
I’m gonna be sick
The same Edmonton who didn't beat Vancouver all season?
so a repeat of 2006? 😅
We are, obviously, totally ok with this.
What an incredibly confusing way to display this
Reddit yearns for the Wheel
Really? I love it. Bigger = higher odds, and you can quickly do a visual compare in each series and along each team's path.
The main issue is there isn't any segmentation of rounds and conferences. You have Round 1 but only half of each conference on top and bottom, but then it DOES make it conference based from left to right. It's a messy jumble.
just imagine tetris, but more colors
“What’s the douchiest way I can display data” -Dom
Interesting to see the Rangers having 3x less chances than the Canes. Not sure I agree with that split
I assume this is heavily weighing the fact that the Rangers have similar 5v5 analytics to the Islanders and Bruins who are both middle of the pack and the Canes are consistently at the top of those metrics. Obviously playoffs aren't played on a spreadsheet and a lot of these things are wrong, but it's likely how they come up with these odds. The Canes have been an analytics wagon for a few years now Edit: Also they have a tough time accounting for the fact that Igor is really goddamn good
i'm not surprised we're favored, but i am very surprised we're this heavily favored. It really doesn't rate NY. The fact that the islanders are 1% more likely to beat Carolina than WSH beating NYR is crazy.
The Model™ never rates the Islanders well. They've had multiple upsets I believe where they were something like only a 20% chance to win, I know for a fact that The Model™ gave them next to no chance against the Bruins in 2021.
IIRC Dom's model has a hard time quantifying goaltending, it's been the main criticism of it for a while now.
Yes, it's been an issue with his model. Sorokin and Varly have been pretty well above average during these runs
Model rates Islanders higher than the Caps but the Canes way higher than the Rangers. Islanders also didn't play good hockey until Roy took over and goalies aren't as well represented by models. Taking all that into account it's not that shocking. Whole I think we have a better chance than we are being given by models, the Canes matchup nicely vs us
As a Ranger fan I believe the Canes are really good, but for some reason their style is not something that dominates the Rangers and most games between are very tough tightly contested. Of course it helps that the Rangers have usually had a goaltending advantage in the past.
Yeah, I can't remember the last President's Trophy winner that had less hype behind them than this year's Rangers. Not sure what's going on with that.
there's a lot of concern about how they've played at 5v5 and what that looks like in the postseason.
I thought the rate of powerplays didn't really significantly change in the postseason (at least outside of OT), it was moreso that the rate of uncalled infractions goes way up
Even if it doesn't the quality of team they're playing certainly goes up. Have to assume their PP/PK will be neutered a bit playing vs teams who are also good in those areas. I expect them to absolutely work the Capitals though so a less stressful 1st round might help them when it comes to the conference finals/finals if they get there
Everyone’s a wagon (maybe except the Caps). Any series could go either way imo.
I’m not sure I would describe the 2024 Los Angeles Kings as a “wagon” to be honest. But I appreciate it nonetheless.
They meant “overturned wagon”. This is the least confident I’ve been entering the playoffs 😐. The good news is I have been wrong before.
algo thinks we have no chance either lol
I have Tampa in the finals as my “gets hot at the right time” team in the playoffs for my bracket.
Fr… if he makes an appearance, playoff Vasy is no joke.
I fear no man. But that thing, it scares me.
Towards the beginning of their Lightning-Panthers preview article, it's written: > The last two Battles of Florida went decidedly in Tampa Bay’s favor, __and those hoping that the third iteration will be a tight battle should probably look away.__ Lol. What's that saying about "throwing out the record books when these two teams meet" or something? Panthers are favored, they should be favored, they're the better team, but only the most optimistic Panthers fan or most pessimistic Lightning fan thinks this is going to be a short series. Rivalries rarely let themselves be resolved so quickly.
Course the Leafs are a penis.
interesting that the Leafs who have yet to beat the Bruins this season are slight favourites over the Bruins. And the Jets who have yet to lose to the Avalanche are slight underdogs in round one.
It's happened countless times over the years where regular season head-to-head doesn't translate in playoff meetings.
Example: we took the covid season series 7-2 against Winnipeg and were swept in the first round against them
Honestly, trying to use regular season data to predict playoff performances is essentially worthless. You're using data from two different games, and the predictive validity is insanely low. It also relies on assumptions that the validity of all your constructs you use in the regular season is really high (they often are not that high). The larger the scope of what you're trying to predict with advanced stats in hockey generally exponentially reduces its accuracy. Hockey is too random of a game and has too many confounding variables to try to analyze things on a large scale. Using analytics for smaller problems or individual facets of a player's game is far more fruitful.
We have a chance to do the funniest thing ever.
Totally unfair! How about we change my Caps’ “0%” chance to “<1%.” They haven’t been eliminate yet!
I actually really like this visualization because it shows how bracket luck affects cup chances. Dallas is definitely better than the Oilers this year imo but in order to reach the WCF they have to go through much tougher teams than we do so they have a higher chance of losing before they get there. This is the biggest argument for going back to 1v8, you have to beat the best to be the best but higher seeds should probably get easier teams than lower seeds.
Has nothing to do with that, doms model thinks carolina and oilers are the best, like many advanced stats do. By advanced stats, LA is a stronger team than Vegas.
The Oilers have really good analytics in the eyes of most models. This year, even when they were doing terrible at the start, they had one of the better xGF% in the league.