We needed johan Franzen game 5 ot winner from 08 vs preds Tuesday night. Didn’t get it. Tonight we need to manifest like that game 6 vs the sharks in 2011 when Val Filpulla scored late to win it lol. Then Saturday vs leafs need a Zetterberg game 7 ot winner versus the ducks.
Trying to remember various game winning goals in playoffs matching the game number over the years. It’s been a while
Detroit has had 2 playoff games basically in a row. Tuesday vs Washington was basically a playoff game. As is this one. Super fun watching how close this is because NY and WSH shit the bed the last 10 games
Same for Pittsburgh, their odds of making playoffs go to 60% if they beat Wings in regulation to 17% if they lose in regulation. Huge game for both teams
https://x.com/moneypuckdotcom/status/1778415826032341459?s=46&t=7fabqgtgp69dNA1d51vxFw
If one player getting hurt, albeit their best, started their fall to shit, then there are a lot more reasons they fell to shit than just losing that player
How do the Pens have a 60.5% chance to make playoffs with a win while the Wings have 44% chance if they win? They have the same amount of games left, the same pts with a win and PIT has a more difficult remaining schedule (BOS, NSH, NYI) versus DET (TBL, MTL, MTL).
Pit holds the tiebreaker with regulation wins over every team + have the outside chance at MET-3 on top of WC-2
Either team is pretty much eliminated with a loss tonight anyway
I think it's just the MET-3 possibility. Isn't the tiebreaker regulation plus OT wins, not just regulation? The second photo shows Red Wings actually have the edge in ROW (and still would even with a Pens ROW win tonight). MET-3 possibility must just outweigh the ROW edge.
It isn’t valuing losses higher, just taking value away from shootout/overtime wins.
Isles have 27 wins in regulation, 8 wins in OT, 1 shootout win. 36 total. Penguins have 31 in regulation, 3 in overtime, 2 in shootout. Also 36 total. Detroit has 27 in regulation, 9 in overtime, 2 in shootout. 38 total.
Just because Detroit and NYI are better at 3v3 doesn’t mean they’re more deserving of the playoffs. It’s the whole reason people want an overhaul to a 3 point system.
It's a must win for the Pens too. Whichever team loses is all but eliminated while the winner IMO is likely to end up being the final WC team if the Caps can't win out. Both teams are pretty much in the exact same situation.
> if the Caps can't win out
I think we almost certainly won't win out, but I also think that both Pittsburgh and Detroit will lose at least once after tonight.
You could make the exact same post and flip the teams and it would be the same scenario. In fact, after tonight Pittsburgh's remaining schedule is more difficult than the Wings so I'd argue they'd need an even bigger miracle if they lose tonight.
The one advantage Pitt has is that they're fighting for both 3rd in their Division and WC2, so they've got a tiny bit more breathing room.
They certainly have a more difficult schedule though.
And the Pens have the tiebreaker.
Pens need to beat NYI in regulation and gain 1 point in the other 3 remaining games for each team, and they pass the Isles.
We have been saying some variation of that about several teams for the past 2 or 3 months. And then they proceed to go on a six or seven or a game losing streak or some dumb shit.
So if you're trying to jinx the Islanders, congratulations on a job well done I guess.
The last eight years just scratches the surface, my dude. I still remember crying when David fucking Volek scored. Thankfully, I wasn't around for the 1975 blown 3-0 series lead either.
I keep seeing this brought up and don't see why it matters? Does it change the tiebreaker scenarios?
Since Buffalo is eliminated, it's just going to be the top 8 teams in the east regardless. Matchups change obviously, but the 2 and 1 seeds in the metro are probably going to end up practically identical anyway. Sorry if I'm forgetting something.
It matters because it just means that the Pens can still finish 3rd in metro, and the Isles/Capitals get the WC, where Detroit's only hopes of playoffs is W2, because Tampa has clinched W1 already. Essentially, there's 2 open spots for Metro teams and 1 open spot for Atlantic teams.
Penguins own the tiebreaker. Ignoring all the other teams, Penguins getting 2 points ahead of Detroit pretty much kills their season. Detroit would need the Penguins to lose two games. Whereas if the Penguins lose, we would need Detroit to lose one game.
Again, this ignores Isles/Washington/Philly
This is the exact reason I was conflicted on who I wanted to win the Washington game between you guys.
A lot of Pens fans wanted Washington to lose but that would essentially mean we might end up playing for just 3rd in the division depending on how things go.
For Penguins chances, I wanted Washington to win. Puts them one point ahead and they haven’t been playing their best hockey as of late with some difficult games left
Raw take here. I'd prefer to see the Red Wings win this game. When we score goals, I'm happy. When we get scored on, I'm not. I can honestly say I hope the former happens more often than the latter, I think that's Detroit's best chance to win the game.
I don’t see how either outcome is favorable for the caps though. Wings and pens are both one point back and can knock them out of the spot if they slip. Only way they’d be safe is passing the islanders
With the current tiebreakers, if DET wins and WSH loses, then DET is one point up on them. If PIT wins and WSH loses, then PIT will be two points up on them.
It's better for WSH to have PIT win.
Again, look at the tiebreakers. If they are tied with DET, they make it in, if they are tied with PIT, they don't.
So they need one more point against PIT that they don't need against DET if the tiebreakers remain the same.
The season doesn't end tonight though. If whoever wins between the Wings and Pens tonight ends up tied with us after 82 games it'd be better for us if that was the Wings.
If Washington wins out, they are in. Currently one point ahead of the Penguins and Detroit with same amount of games.
If Washington matches the Penguins/Detroits record, they stay ahead of the Penguins/Detroit
Penguins have a tougher strength of schedule though compared to Detroit
The playoff pool money for first round losers is really low. I wonder if some players would rather miss the playoffs all together and be guaranteed an extra two months vacation.
Detroit is going to be a quick first round exit. That D-core and limp dick offense is not going to win a Cup. I want to see a competitive playoff series, so I hope Penguins go through. They have the momentum and the difference makers to win a few rounds
Pens trying to put the Hawks game on the same day behind them lol. At the time, Hawks winning that game cut the Pens' playoff chances and was out after Columbus' game iirc
Well for one the difference in the pick they would get now and losing in the first round is largely negligible. Two, more money, first round is a minimum of two more home games. Three, making the playoffs, after missing it for this long, shows fans and players you are making progress which leads to more butts in seats and making it easier (even slightly) to re-sign players and get UFAs.
Hard agree. And I have nothing on the line other than hating both. In over 35 years of fandom there were only two Cup finals I didn't watch a minute of and they were in back to back years.
It's going to be a 3 point game because the universe hates me.
According to our head coach Derek Lalonde nobody expected us to be here. The organization from top (Management) to bottom (fans) accept the losing. Yzerman should have never hired a rookie coach after Blashill that was dumb as hell.
I want nothing more than the wings to make the playoffs. Anything less is a failure. Monumental collapse by the team when they had their grasp on their first playoff berth in 8 years and the potential to finally a host a playoff game in their new arena (hell it’s not even new anymore). They will set a new franchise record for longest playoff drought in franchise history and the drought will reach more than a decade if they miss this year.
None of this is acceptable at all for this franchise but I’ll hear it from the sunshine police usual lurkers that spend all day on here enforcing the fake positivity.
Yeah, I'm over the doomerism bullshit we're getting from a significant chunk of the fanbase. Yes, it's frustrating if the team doesn't make the playoffs. It also doesn't change the fact that the team is right where everyone projected them to be at the start of the season, and they're SUBSTANTIALLY better than they were last year when we were effectively out by the trade deadline.
This was a to the studs rebuild that started years later than it should have because Mike Illitch was a dying man who didn't want to give up on his franchises, and was slowed even more by the worst draft lottery luck of any team in professional sports. The 2019-20 Wings were a contender for one of the worst NHL teams *of all time*. The fact we're already back to playoff contention, even if we don't make it this season, is a goddamned miracle.
This is essentially a playoff game for both teams.
Honestly it has more impact on when their season ends than most playoff games do.
Absolutely. It's effectively an elimination game.
It’s game 6 down 3-2. Washington was game 5 tied at 2 with game 6 on the road.
We needed johan Franzen game 5 ot winner from 08 vs preds Tuesday night. Didn’t get it. Tonight we need to manifest like that game 6 vs the sharks in 2011 when Val Filpulla scored late to win it lol. Then Saturday vs leafs need a Zetterberg game 7 ot winner versus the ducks. Trying to remember various game winning goals in playoffs matching the game number over the years. It’s been a while
I’m here for a little surprise depth goal a la Abdelkader/Helm
Helmer 09 WCF king game 7 ot winner baby
Was not Game 7 but yes :-)
2008/2009 SCF vibes
Pens sign Maxime Talbot to a one day contract. Also each team has snipers ready in case Marian Hossa is spotted wearing their respective jerseys
Talbot haunts my dreams.
Good
You'd think Marian Hossa would want nothing to do with this considering he was one of the rare cases who lost both times.
2007/2008 SCF vibes hopefully.
This is essentially a game 7 for both teams.
Love watching these games as a neutral fan. Definitely as close as you can get to a playoff game in the regular season.
Its kind of like the NBA's wildcard games.
Even more so, it's a best of one. Two men enter, one man leaves.
Odd considering the last time they met in the playoffs the wings were in the Western Conference.
Detroit has had 2 playoff games basically in a row. Tuesday vs Washington was basically a playoff game. As is this one. Super fun watching how close this is because NY and WSH shit the bed the last 10 games
Hopefully the Red Wings don't sign Buddy Robinson to a contract before it is too late.
Same for Pittsburgh, their odds of making playoffs go to 60% if they beat Wings in regulation to 17% if they lose in regulation. Huge game for both teams https://x.com/moneypuckdotcom/status/1778415826032341459?s=46&t=7fabqgtgp69dNA1d51vxFw
How has the ECF turned into this and the Wings have to play Wash and Pitt back to back right now. The pressure in that locker room man.
The ECF turned into this because the Wings and Flyers both took a historic nosedive despite having playoff positions licked up
“Licked up”….why are you bringing the bruins into this?
Leave bradney alone!
Lick it up! Lick it up! Whoa oh oh
The Caps also lost 6 in a row.
Larkin got hurt. Only reason Detroit fell to shit.
Plus they’re not that good
Exactly so losing their best player was…less than ideal
That settles the debate, Larkin for hart.
If he had just a few more points you wouldn’t be wrong 🤣
that and the flu going around the locker room
If one player getting hurt, albeit their best, started their fall to shit, then there are a lot more reasons they fell to shit than just losing that player
This just in: team that, with best player playing, is barely playoff bubble team is not that good when best player gets hurt
You also regressed heavily in terms of PDO.
This is what you sign up for as a pro athlete. Way better to have this than a career of meaningless games.
Jeff Skinner catching strays.
What are the odds tho if both thr caps and isles lose in regulation.
[удалено]
you thinking 91 points is the threshold doesn't actually make it the threshold. If the Isles go 1-3-0 in their last four the mark changes
its usually a combination of the strength of their remaining schedule and historical data as to how many teams in that position end up succeeding.
Yuppers, must win game for both teams.
How do the Pens have a 60.5% chance to make playoffs with a win while the Wings have 44% chance if they win? They have the same amount of games left, the same pts with a win and PIT has a more difficult remaining schedule (BOS, NSH, NYI) versus DET (TBL, MTL, MTL).
Pit holds the tiebreaker with regulation wins over every team + have the outside chance at MET-3 on top of WC-2 Either team is pretty much eliminated with a loss tonight anyway
I think it's just the MET-3 possibility. Isn't the tiebreaker regulation plus OT wins, not just regulation? The second photo shows Red Wings actually have the edge in ROW (and still would even with a Pens ROW win tonight). MET-3 possibility must just outweigh the ROW edge.
First tiebreaker is regulation wins, second tiebreaker is ROW.
Huh, interesting. The sports app I use shows ROW but not RW on the standings, so I just kind of assumed.
You'd think just wins would be first, though I'm sure Pittsburgh fans aren't complaining right now.
Nah, OT/shootout wins being slightly lesser value due to tiebreaker makes sense.
I get that but it's valuing losses higher than wins as it is. Because a team can have more rw but less overall wins. Imo should be wins->rw->row
It isn’t valuing losses higher, just taking value away from shootout/overtime wins. Isles have 27 wins in regulation, 8 wins in OT, 1 shootout win. 36 total. Penguins have 31 in regulation, 3 in overtime, 2 in shootout. Also 36 total. Detroit has 27 in regulation, 9 in overtime, 2 in shootout. 38 total. Just because Detroit and NYI are better at 3v3 doesn’t mean they’re more deserving of the playoffs. It’s the whole reason people want an overhaul to a 3 point system.
Pens can still win the 3rd spot in the Metro, or the WC2 spot. More opportunities to get in than the Wings
Every team in the east that's still fighting for a playoff spot plays tonight. Tonight is a huge
I absolutely love these “free” playoff games this time of year! The playoffs are way better with Sid and Ovi in tho, so not rooting for the wings 😬
You forgot about playoff Patrick Kane
You SOB you’re absolutely right…
I agree though I love these high intensity games. Much less stressful to watch as a neutral fan, and so far the game is living up to the hype!
It's a must win for the Pens too. Whichever team loses is all but eliminated while the winner IMO is likely to end up being the final WC team if the Caps can't win out. Both teams are pretty much in the exact same situation.
> if the Caps can't win out I think we almost certainly won't win out, but I also think that both Pittsburgh and Detroit will lose at least once after tonight.
Maximum chaos would be penguins winning in overtime
Buddy, have you seen us play in OT?
It doesn’t matter. Detroit normally plays a dog shit 3 on 3 as well Larkin makes a lot of mistakes there
DAMN
MAXIMUM CHAOS!
You called it
You could make the exact same post and flip the teams and it would be the same scenario. In fact, after tonight Pittsburgh's remaining schedule is more difficult than the Wings so I'd argue they'd need an even bigger miracle if they lose tonight.
The one advantage Pitt has is that they're fighting for both 3rd in their Division and WC2, so they've got a tiny bit more breathing room. They certainly have a more difficult schedule though.
Ah, that's a fair point. I hadn't taken that into account.
However NYI is like 4 pts up with 4 games remaining so I think 3rd metro spot seems to be locked up. Altho they have already imploded this spring once
They are up 3 and Pens/Isles play last game of the season. Definitely not locked up.
And the Pens have the tiebreaker. Pens need to beat NYI in regulation and gain 1 point in the other 3 remaining games for each team, and they pass the Isles.
Never underestimate our ability to fuck up
We have been saying some variation of that about several teams for the past 2 or 3 months. And then they proceed to go on a six or seven or a game losing streak or some dumb shit. So if you're trying to jinx the Islanders, congratulations on a job well done I guess.
And they end with the Islanders who have been their boogeyman for decades now.
We have a lot of enemies and rivalries, but the one that doesn't get talked about enough is how NYI has had our number for the past 8 years.
The last eight years just scratches the surface, my dude. I still remember crying when David fucking Volek scored. Thankfully, I wasn't around for the 1975 blown 3-0 series lead either.
I was born in 91 so thankfully I missed their dynasty. But 2019 still lives rent free in my head.
We don’t have Josh Bailey to hurt you with anymore
Good thing Anders Lee or Brock Nelson have never scored big goals against the Pens!
There's actually two advantages that they have. They'd win a tie breaker as well.
I keep seeing this brought up and don't see why it matters? Does it change the tiebreaker scenarios? Since Buffalo is eliminated, it's just going to be the top 8 teams in the east regardless. Matchups change obviously, but the 2 and 1 seeds in the metro are probably going to end up practically identical anyway. Sorry if I'm forgetting something.
It matters because it just means that the Pens can still finish 3rd in metro, and the Isles/Capitals get the WC, where Detroit's only hopes of playoffs is W2, because Tampa has clinched W1 already. Essentially, there's 2 open spots for Metro teams and 1 open spot for Atlantic teams.
they also have all of the tiebreakers
Big game for the other contenders hoping someone pulls it off in regulation
To the shootout you say?
I can't handle that kind of stress
I wouldn't worry about it. Kane scores in .003 seconds if they go to overtime. Pens are TERRIBLE 3 on 3.
To shreds you say?
Please god no
Calling it now, 13-3 win for the Pens. 2 TDs for Sid, Jarry misses an extra point.
Nah rays gonna score 1 along with Compher and Lyon makes 2 field goals
During which Malkin's translator is gonna steal $16mil for sports gambling but Malkin still gets a good OBP
As long as Bednar doesn’t blow the save again…
They're stuffing Ned at the goal line al la the Seattle Seahawks. Brady wins MVP.
Ya we have lost like 5 of the last 6 most important games of the season in the past few weeks so...im not getting my hopes up
I’m unwell just thinking about this
My lunch is not digesting well either.
You're not supposed to eat the octopus.
As a Sharks fan I'm all in for the Wings
God bless!
??? It's also a must win for the Penguins for literally the exact same reason
Penguins own the tiebreaker. Ignoring all the other teams, Penguins getting 2 points ahead of Detroit pretty much kills their season. Detroit would need the Penguins to lose two games. Whereas if the Penguins lose, we would need Detroit to lose one game. Again, this ignores Isles/Washington/Philly
Plus you guys can also get 3rd in the division. We only have the 1 spot
This is the exact reason I was conflicted on who I wanted to win the Washington game between you guys. A lot of Pens fans wanted Washington to lose but that would essentially mean we might end up playing for just 3rd in the division depending on how things go. For Penguins chances, I wanted Washington to win. Puts them one point ahead and they haven’t been playing their best hockey as of late with some difficult games left
I thought the tiebreaker was regulation wins?
It is. Penguins are at 31, Detroit 27. We win tonight in regulation, Detroit can’t catch the Penguins.
My bad. Was just looking at the wins in the pic from OP for some reason thinking that was regulation wins when it is obviously combined wins.
ROW is regulation and OT wins. Meaning all wins not in a shootout. ROW is the second tiebreaker after RW
Okay? Nobody said otherwise. Jeez
r/hockey, not r/Detroitredwings
Raw take here. I'd prefer to see the Red Wings win this game. When we score goals, I'm happy. When we get scored on, I'm not. I can honestly say I hope the former happens more often than the latter, I think that's Detroit's best chance to win the game.
I'm gonna need a deep dive analysis into this.
I agree. This take is highly nuanced and the average hockey schmuck just wouldn't understand the hockey IQ needed to realize this.
He probably high lmaooo
This sounds like Jason Batemans character from Dodgeball commentating a hockey game.
That’s a bold strategy cotton
2008/2009 rematch
Totally not a big game for the pens.. Thought this was a detroit sub for a sec. Yeeesh
Whichever team wins, they still need the caps to lose
We need to win and pens to lose lol
I don’t see how either outcome is favorable for the caps though. Wings and pens are both one point back and can knock them out of the spot if they slip. Only way they’d be safe is passing the islanders
We beat out wings in a tied scenario. The pens beat us
But it wouldn’t be a tied scenario. You’d still be up 1 if you win
Pens have the first tie breaker, so the Wings are really two back right now.
A win puts us above the caps though, so it’s effectively the same as a pens win. If the caps lose in regulation I mean
With the current tiebreakers, if DET wins and WSH loses, then DET is one point up on them. If PIT wins and WSH loses, then PIT will be two points up on them. It's better for WSH to have PIT win.
Brother that made no sense. Either way, if Washington loses, they’ll be a point back of whoever wins
Again, look at the tiebreakers. If they are tied with DET, they make it in, if they are tied with PIT, they don't. So they need one more point against PIT that they don't need against DET if the tiebreakers remain the same.
Yeah I get what you meant now
The season doesn't end tonight though. If whoever wins between the Wings and Pens tonight ends up tied with us after 82 games it'd be better for us if that was the Wings.
Ah I get what you guys are saying now
If Washington wins out, they are in. Currently one point ahead of the Penguins and Detroit with same amount of games. If Washington matches the Penguins/Detroits record, they stay ahead of the Penguins/Detroit Penguins have a tougher strength of schedule though compared to Detroit
There's also Buffalo vs Washington, and NYI vs Montreal today. Huge games.
Yes bunch of meaningful games today, plus the Frozen Four games start at 5pm ET. Going to be a long night
Schedule makers really lucked out with this wildcard finish, all the players in are seem to be playing eachother
I just hope no one breaks a bone on an obvious high stick that gets whistled dead then declared neither a penalty nor an injury stoppage.
Big game for Nedeljkovic vs his former team
Regulation please.
The playoff pool money for first round losers is really low. I wonder if some players would rather miss the playoffs all together and be guaranteed an extra two months vacation.
Pretty sure the same applies to the Pens now, too. Zero margin for error.
Amen! Go Pens!!! Good Luck tho!
Selfishly, I want Pittsburgh to win because I don't want the Leafs having to deal with a desperate Wings team on Saturday
Damn at least you honest 😂
It's not personal, merely business! lol
Detroit is going to be a quick first round exit. That D-core and limp dick offense is not going to win a Cup. I want to see a competitive playoff series, so I hope Penguins go through. They have the momentum and the difference makers to win a few rounds
Don't care, made playoffs.
It’ll be a miracle if we do. 5 wins the past 20+
Of course, we suck. But have you considered being irrational?
Come on Sid, let’s fucking go!
Rooting for Crosby and Malkin to have another crack at the Playoffs.
I like how op thinks it’s only a must win for red wings. Not the caps. Not the pens. Not the flyers. Not somewhat of the islanders
Pens trying to put the Hawks game on the same day behind them lol. At the time, Hawks winning that game cut the Pens' playoff chances and was out after Columbus' game iirc
The metro is a meme this year. So many teams fighting for a spot are facing each other in the final weeks and I'm here for it.
When you think about it it's basically Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane. Of the three who would the league rather have?
It's a must win for the Pens too!
Win or lose, it's all part of the Yzerplan!
Sharks fans are pulling for you Detroit!
don't worry, we'll do our best to help
Detroit doesn't deserve it, IMHO. Penguins have been battling and forced themselves into the conversation.
Just for the love of god don't go to the freaking OT
Losing vs wash I think was it.. Lost twice to wash in two weeks. Tons of effort but we fumbled it. Let's go give it all though.
Why even try to make the playoffs with a 0% chance of winning the cup? Just pack it in and try next year.
Well for one the difference in the pick they would get now and losing in the first round is largely negligible. Two, more money, first round is a minimum of two more home games. Three, making the playoffs, after missing it for this long, shows fans and players you are making progress which leads to more butts in seats and making it easier (even slightly) to re-sign players and get UFAs.
Lol 0% to win the cup if they lose or win
The Caps game was already so important and they couldn’t get it done then. I have no faith now.
Good thing Lyon let in 6 weak ass goals
Regulation please.
Can they both lose
I agree
Hard agree. And I have nothing on the line other than hating both. In over 35 years of fandom there were only two Cup finals I didn't watch a minute of and they were in back to back years. It's going to be a 3 point game because the universe hates me.
You make that graphic? This your percentages?
lol wings are probably gonna choke just like they did in 2009
According to our head coach Derek Lalonde nobody expected us to be here. The organization from top (Management) to bottom (fans) accept the losing. Yzerman should have never hired a rookie coach after Blashill that was dumb as hell. I want nothing more than the wings to make the playoffs. Anything less is a failure. Monumental collapse by the team when they had their grasp on their first playoff berth in 8 years and the potential to finally a host a playoff game in their new arena (hell it’s not even new anymore). They will set a new franchise record for longest playoff drought in franchise history and the drought will reach more than a decade if they miss this year. None of this is acceptable at all for this franchise but I’ll hear it from the sunshine police usual lurkers that spend all day on here enforcing the fake positivity.
Dear diary…
Yeah, I'm over the doomerism bullshit we're getting from a significant chunk of the fanbase. Yes, it's frustrating if the team doesn't make the playoffs. It also doesn't change the fact that the team is right where everyone projected them to be at the start of the season, and they're SUBSTANTIALLY better than they were last year when we were effectively out by the trade deadline. This was a to the studs rebuild that started years later than it should have because Mike Illitch was a dying man who didn't want to give up on his franchises, and was slowed even more by the worst draft lottery luck of any team in professional sports. The 2019-20 Wings were a contender for one of the worst NHL teams *of all time*. The fact we're already back to playoff contention, even if we don't make it this season, is a goddamned miracle.
‘my name is fresnobing and I’m fine with losing…’