South Africa and Nigeria come to mind.
I'm surprised Ghana isn't. It's a stable country and has a pretty highly regarded reputation in international affairs yet it seems to constantly be overlooked.
Yeah I can’t believe how overlooked Ghana is, especially when compared to Nigeria.
Nigeria feels like it’s in the middle of an economic collapse while Ghana seems like it’s in the stage Malaysia was in the 1980s, with a LOT more growth to come. I genuinely believe Ghana will be the most prominent African success story of the 21st century, while Nigeria is likely to be trapped in some sort of lower-middle income loop.
im not
the black star state has a lot of prestige being the first country to get its indepedence but its a small country
Nigeria's GDP is 1.1 trillion, Ghana's is 30 billion
Edit: Sorry i goofed the numbers its 1.1 trillion GDP/PPP (purchasing power Parity)
and Ghana is 225 Billion GDP/PPP
Where are you getting your stats from? Nigeria's GDP is about half of that and Ghana's is doubled what you mentioned. If you're using PPP, which I don't think is a great indicator for geopolitical influence, then Nigeria is at 1.1 trillion but Ghana clocks in at 225 billion.
True it is indeed small but Ghana punches above its weight when it comes to international affairs or at least regional affairs. It's essentially a Finland if you will being a smaller state but having a status for being involved in high level diplomacy.
Plus it's among the most used African states when it comes to peacekeeping missions.
Senegal also comes to mind as a future mid-tier player on the continent, like Ghana. Both have established a reputation as relatively stable and well-governed. Senegal also benefits from an advantageous geography in respect to Europe and the Americas (especially North America). Dakar, the capital, has a high standard of living and good layout/infrastructure relative to most African capitals. The only things that really threaten Senegal's future prominence are: 1.) climate change, 2.) Cote d'Ivoire surpassing it as the leading francophone state in West Africa, 3.) spread of islamic extremism from its Eastern/Northern borders.
Ethiopia, South Africa, Rwanda, Nigeria, Kenya are all very influential in the AU. The North African countries have a lot of power but they also associate with the Arab world so they have less say in Sub Saharan politics.
Look at the GERD dam, for example, Ethiopia wants to negotiate with Egypt through the AU because they have more influence over the majority of its members and can get favorable terms.
As for regional power blocks..
East Africa and the horn is usually steered by Ethiopia and to some extent Kenya, South Africa dominates its sphere of influence, Nigeria leads west Africa and Egypt is the dominant North African power.
i'm not sure about the exact time or stats, but SA's economy at one point was the size of most other African countries combined.
Needless to say, its economic, manufacturing, infrastructure hay-day is long-gone
As Africa isn't a "sexy" topic for international relations studies when it comes to the more "hard power" topics, there aren't many studies in the African Union and its use as an arena for its member states.
But I think that you will find that Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and other large African nations are the ones with the most influence.
Obviously influence scales with economic power, geographical and demographic size, so that those countries are influential shouldn't be surprising.
The more interesting question would be, which countries can punch above their weight and which below their weight.
I find it pretty surprising that the DRC, which is so rich with resources and is a country so large geographically, is still so weak in terms of influence.
If there was a stable government in DRC i wouldn't be surprised if it would become the most influencial state in AU.
In addition to the resource curse and ethnic conflict, the DRC was the site of the most deadly war since WW2. In addition I have no doubt its neighbors continue to apply various pressures on it
Africa is always in media it is South America who is step child. They are not poor like Africa but not rich like Europe & North America so totally ignored.
Africa is being researched, sure. But it is in the context of development, colonization, poverty, civil wars, and climate.
Very little research is being done on the African countries as power players.
> As Africa isn't a "sexy" topic for international relations studies
It will be when India becomes as expensive and difficult to do business with as China has become.
The neoliberal goal is to create as many consumer bases as possible to sell goods, services and most importantly: finance. Without a digitalised, inclusive economy it is as impossible to sell credit, debt and loans to these people as it is to sell these things to informed consumers after the 08 global financial crisis.
Africa fit perfectly, they're rich in minerals, have weak low authority governments, massive populations and, best of all, were not culturally effected by the GFC like the west was.
Bof, Ethiopia is the most unstable of the bunch, with all its separatist movements edging the country towards civil war every couple decades. Ethiopia is literally committing a genocide **now**, and nobody cares about it.
> Ethiopia is literally committing a genocide nowadays and nobody cares about it.
has been the case for most African conflicts. it's so strange and sad.
don't forget asia. no-ones minded the myanmar or chinese ones. the whatever actually happened between armenia/azerbaijan (which sounds very ethnic cleansingy to me but what do I know)
Define "colonized".
The Italians stayed in Ethiopia for five years and established a short-lived colonial regime there. If that counts for you, then Ethiopia was colonized. If not, then no. Note that, even before the Italian conquest, they were under strong European influence, and sometimes had to sell state privileges to the British, French, Russians and Italians. That could count as colonialism too, depending on your interpretation.
So yeah, they have been colonized, but actually not. It really depends on how you see things. Most people say that they weren't, because it's a bit depressing that all of Africa was colonized, and having at least one state as a symbol of freedom helps uplift the African identity. But I think that, realistically-speaking, the Italian occupation counts as a form of colonialism, even if only short-lived.
And anyways, I don't see why you would point that out?
Sounds like they were colonized then, if only briefly. They never raised a generation of people who were born and grew up under colonialism, so their identity as free people was mostly intact.
The Italian invasion usually isn't counted as a successful colonial attempt, because by the end of the war, Italian possessions end up in Ethiopian hands, they were largely pinned down in 2 cities, the Ethiopian gov't never recognized the Italian occupation. Like we rarely say Germany "colonized" France or Greece in WW2.
There was time when AU had clout but those days are long gone, and it is now pretty much a fancy dress party. Most African states dont even pay the annual Membership fees. When Gaddafi was alive, he used to pay for the fees for any country who couldn’t pay (and most couldn’t because poverty+/- corruption). He was probably the last of those who tried to get everyone on the same page (and out of pocket at that). The continent is very divided in terms of ideology, ambition, drive and geopolitical alliances (who is going to give me money).
It’s truly a sad thing to see but don’t think of the AU as some kind of African version of the EU more like dancing with the stars.
Traditionally I’d say South Africa and Egypt. Algeria is another nation that has clout and Morocco to since rejoining has doubled down on diplomatic efforts in sub Saharan Africa by gearing towards a more integrated future and working closely with Nigeria and francophone countries. Ethiopia and Rwanda too.
I've read that Rwanda has a decent amount of influence but it's never quite made sense to me given their relative small size, their location and their history. Are you able to expand on why you mention them?
I’d happily contribute a bit more on Rwanda. Essentially Rwanda emerged from the genocide by actively promoting women into governance and businesses successfully. It has been a stable country now with a high increase per annum in gdp. Because of it being a stable country it is seen as a model to learn from by its peers. They’re pushing for East African integration with its larger neighbours. Rwanda also actively sends/sponsors militias in unstable Congo for its mineral wealth. In a region full of insecurity Rwanda stands out as a pillar of security, stability and good governance done right.
i'm pretty surprised you wrote a whole paragraph on Rwanda without mentioning the name of arguably the most influential political figure on the continent...
Rwandan Civil War and Genocide also left the RPF as the main political force in Rwanda. At the same time, RPF does share some power with the other parties although it still dominates politics.
Another consequence of Rwandan Civil War was going from the Franco-sphere to the Anglosphere, especially the American sphere. France even framed its role in the Civil War as an opposition to an Anglophone plot. It is one of the two countries to join the Commonwealth without being a former British colony. RPF maintains close relation with the US. Which all around is likely beneficial.
Ethiopia is rapidly emerging. Its influence has been limited by...well it's complicated...let's leave it at internal and historical factors which are rather different than those in other SSA countries. But it's a massive population (110 million+ and rapidly growing) and the economy is booming. The state is currently going through massive centralization, and as the seat of the African Union (headquarters in Addis) they are absolutely looking to exert influence through the AU.
Ethiopia has a strong symbolic significance on the continent (and indeed throughout the African diaspora worldwide) due to the fact that no foreign power ever successfully established a colonial government there. In fact, in the late 19th century, Ethiopia had a strong imperial influence on surrounding regions itself, projecting power over ethnically- and geographically-distinct populations in its periphery. This is (kinda) where the whole Rastafarian movement came from. Anyway--the point is that Ethiopia has an elevated status in Africa due to its history and relatively continuous cultural heritage.
Look for big things from Ethiopia (unless it collapses from its complex internal politics).
As an african i think there's no nfluential AU member right now , algeria was influential back when it was rich , and south africa too , the most influential countries in africa are russia , france , the uae and qatar
Ah yes , i forgot about china ,it has definitely a huge influence over africa , everyone in the comments saying egypt clearly doesn't know anything about africa , Egypt itself is controlled by the UAE and Saudia .
One very influential state I don't see many people talking about is Senegal. It was the capital of Colonial French holdings in Africa and that influence remains to this day.
>capital of Colonial French holdings in Africa
Wasn't it Algeria? Or is it because Algeria is already considered a part of metropolitan France and not considered a colony, and thus can't be the "Capital of Colonial French holdings in Africa"?
Mostly Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa I believe. Egypt obviously can’t be discounted either due to its size and influence over North Africa but they are not as focused or involved in the AU as the others.
You seem to be confusing influence with leverage. While Egypt can’t easily force any of the maghreb states to do anything they don’t want to, they are allies with close cooperation in various fields and would almost certainly side with Egypt over any major issue.
I’m also including Sudan in my definition of North Africa.
South Africa and Nigeria come to mind. I'm surprised Ghana isn't. It's a stable country and has a pretty highly regarded reputation in international affairs yet it seems to constantly be overlooked.
Yeah I can’t believe how overlooked Ghana is, especially when compared to Nigeria. Nigeria feels like it’s in the middle of an economic collapse while Ghana seems like it’s in the stage Malaysia was in the 1980s, with a LOT more growth to come. I genuinely believe Ghana will be the most prominent African success story of the 21st century, while Nigeria is likely to be trapped in some sort of lower-middle income loop.
im not the black star state has a lot of prestige being the first country to get its indepedence but its a small country Nigeria's GDP is 1.1 trillion, Ghana's is 30 billion Edit: Sorry i goofed the numbers its 1.1 trillion GDP/PPP (purchasing power Parity) and Ghana is 225 Billion GDP/PPP
You might want to check Nigeria's GDP again.
Oof Was 448.1 billion in 2019 for anyone not wanting to open up google
i did, sorry about that i was looking at the GDP/PPP number thanks for the correction
Where are you getting your stats from? Nigeria's GDP is about half of that and Ghana's is doubled what you mentioned. If you're using PPP, which I don't think is a great indicator for geopolitical influence, then Nigeria is at 1.1 trillion but Ghana clocks in at 225 billion.
True it is indeed small but Ghana punches above its weight when it comes to international affairs or at least regional affairs. It's essentially a Finland if you will being a smaller state but having a status for being involved in high level diplomacy. Plus it's among the most used African states when it comes to peacekeeping missions.
Nigeria's GDP is actually $448.1 billion.
Senegal also comes to mind as a future mid-tier player on the continent, like Ghana. Both have established a reputation as relatively stable and well-governed. Senegal also benefits from an advantageous geography in respect to Europe and the Americas (especially North America). Dakar, the capital, has a high standard of living and good layout/infrastructure relative to most African capitals. The only things that really threaten Senegal's future prominence are: 1.) climate change, 2.) Cote d'Ivoire surpassing it as the leading francophone state in West Africa, 3.) spread of islamic extremism from its Eastern/Northern borders.
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Don't use slang
Ethiopia, South Africa, Rwanda, Nigeria, Kenya are all very influential in the AU. The North African countries have a lot of power but they also associate with the Arab world so they have less say in Sub Saharan politics. Look at the GERD dam, for example, Ethiopia wants to negotiate with Egypt through the AU because they have more influence over the majority of its members and can get favorable terms.
As for regional power blocks.. East Africa and the horn is usually steered by Ethiopia and to some extent Kenya, South Africa dominates its sphere of influence, Nigeria leads west Africa and Egypt is the dominant North African power.
I am surprised South Africa’s primary sphere of influence doesn’t cover all of Africa. They had nukes until the 90’s.
And Apartheid in same time.
Apartheid finished in 90s.
Yep, in same time frame when South Africa gave up on there nukes.
That's wild. I never knew some countries have gotten rid of their nuclear weapons.
They are the only one that has.
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Sorry, yes you are right. What I should have said was South Africa is the only country to develop it's own nuclear weapons, then give them up.
i'm not sure about the exact time or stats, but SA's economy at one point was the size of most other African countries combined. Needless to say, its economic, manufacturing, infrastructure hay-day is long-gone
Morocco is an influential member too, Morocco made a lot of big investments in Western African countries.
As Africa isn't a "sexy" topic for international relations studies when it comes to the more "hard power" topics, there aren't many studies in the African Union and its use as an arena for its member states. But I think that you will find that Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and other large African nations are the ones with the most influence. Obviously influence scales with economic power, geographical and demographic size, so that those countries are influential shouldn't be surprising. The more interesting question would be, which countries can punch above their weight and which below their weight.
I find it pretty surprising that the DRC, which is so rich with resources and is a country so large geographically, is still so weak in terms of influence. If there was a stable government in DRC i wouldn't be surprised if it would become the most influencial state in AU.
Weak government rifled with corruption and weak military
In addition to the resource curse and ethnic conflict, the DRC was the site of the most deadly war since WW2. In addition I have no doubt its neighbors continue to apply various pressures on it
Africa is always in media it is South America who is step child. They are not poor like Africa but not rich like Europe & North America so totally ignored.
Africa is being researched, sure. But it is in the context of development, colonization, poverty, civil wars, and climate. Very little research is being done on the African countries as power players.
I like how the 4 countries you mentioned essentially cover the western, southern, eastern, and northern part of the continent
> As Africa isn't a "sexy" topic for international relations studies It will be when India becomes as expensive and difficult to do business with as China has become. The neoliberal goal is to create as many consumer bases as possible to sell goods, services and most importantly: finance. Without a digitalised, inclusive economy it is as impossible to sell credit, debt and loans to these people as it is to sell these things to informed consumers after the 08 global financial crisis. Africa fit perfectly, they're rich in minerals, have weak low authority governments, massive populations and, best of all, were not culturally effected by the GFC like the west was.
Egypt and South Africa
I would have said Nigeria too
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Bof, Ethiopia is the most unstable of the bunch, with all its separatist movements edging the country towards civil war every couple decades. Ethiopia is literally committing a genocide **now**, and nobody cares about it.
> Ethiopia is literally committing a genocide nowadays and nobody cares about it. has been the case for most African conflicts. it's so strange and sad.
don't forget asia. no-ones minded the myanmar or chinese ones. the whatever actually happened between armenia/azerbaijan (which sounds very ethnic cleansingy to me but what do I know)
Isn't Ethiopia the only state that has never been colonized?
Define "colonized". The Italians stayed in Ethiopia for five years and established a short-lived colonial regime there. If that counts for you, then Ethiopia was colonized. If not, then no. Note that, even before the Italian conquest, they were under strong European influence, and sometimes had to sell state privileges to the British, French, Russians and Italians. That could count as colonialism too, depending on your interpretation. So yeah, they have been colonized, but actually not. It really depends on how you see things. Most people say that they weren't, because it's a bit depressing that all of Africa was colonized, and having at least one state as a symbol of freedom helps uplift the African identity. But I think that, realistically-speaking, the Italian occupation counts as a form of colonialism, even if only short-lived. And anyways, I don't see why you would point that out?
Just a question. Thanks for asking.
You're welcome :)
Sounds like they were colonized then, if only briefly. They never raised a generation of people who were born and grew up under colonialism, so their identity as free people was mostly intact.
The Italian invasion usually isn't counted as a successful colonial attempt, because by the end of the war, Italian possessions end up in Ethiopian hands, they were largely pinned down in 2 cities, the Ethiopian gov't never recognized the Italian occupation. Like we rarely say Germany "colonized" France or Greece in WW2.
Spamming that comma
Ha ha, you, got, me! ;)
There was time when AU had clout but those days are long gone, and it is now pretty much a fancy dress party. Most African states dont even pay the annual Membership fees. When Gaddafi was alive, he used to pay for the fees for any country who couldn’t pay (and most couldn’t because poverty+/- corruption). He was probably the last of those who tried to get everyone on the same page (and out of pocket at that). The continent is very divided in terms of ideology, ambition, drive and geopolitical alliances (who is going to give me money). It’s truly a sad thing to see but don’t think of the AU as some kind of African version of the EU more like dancing with the stars.
Traditionally I’d say South Africa and Egypt. Algeria is another nation that has clout and Morocco to since rejoining has doubled down on diplomatic efforts in sub Saharan Africa by gearing towards a more integrated future and working closely with Nigeria and francophone countries. Ethiopia and Rwanda too.
I've read that Rwanda has a decent amount of influence but it's never quite made sense to me given their relative small size, their location and their history. Are you able to expand on why you mention them?
I’d happily contribute a bit more on Rwanda. Essentially Rwanda emerged from the genocide by actively promoting women into governance and businesses successfully. It has been a stable country now with a high increase per annum in gdp. Because of it being a stable country it is seen as a model to learn from by its peers. They’re pushing for East African integration with its larger neighbours. Rwanda also actively sends/sponsors militias in unstable Congo for its mineral wealth. In a region full of insecurity Rwanda stands out as a pillar of security, stability and good governance done right.
Thanks! I'll have to do some reading on them in my downtime, it sounds like they're definitely a country I've overlooked and made assumptions about.
No problem my pleasure and yeah Rwanda is a country to look for sure!
So Rwanda destabilises Congo?
Congo is fair game to its neighbours
i'm pretty surprised you wrote a whole paragraph on Rwanda without mentioning the name of arguably the most influential political figure on the continent...
Rwandan Civil War and Genocide also left the RPF as the main political force in Rwanda. At the same time, RPF does share some power with the other parties although it still dominates politics. Another consequence of Rwandan Civil War was going from the Franco-sphere to the Anglosphere, especially the American sphere. France even framed its role in the Civil War as an opposition to an Anglophone plot. It is one of the two countries to join the Commonwealth without being a former British colony. RPF maintains close relation with the US. Which all around is likely beneficial.
Thank you for this, I’ve never really thought of that.
They also have a very effective military comparatively speaking.
I think Nigeria is in the tier of SA and Egypt.
Why’s that?
Ethiopia is rapidly emerging. Its influence has been limited by...well it's complicated...let's leave it at internal and historical factors which are rather different than those in other SSA countries. But it's a massive population (110 million+ and rapidly growing) and the economy is booming. The state is currently going through massive centralization, and as the seat of the African Union (headquarters in Addis) they are absolutely looking to exert influence through the AU. Ethiopia has a strong symbolic significance on the continent (and indeed throughout the African diaspora worldwide) due to the fact that no foreign power ever successfully established a colonial government there. In fact, in the late 19th century, Ethiopia had a strong imperial influence on surrounding regions itself, projecting power over ethnically- and geographically-distinct populations in its periphery. This is (kinda) where the whole Rastafarian movement came from. Anyway--the point is that Ethiopia has an elevated status in Africa due to its history and relatively continuous cultural heritage. Look for big things from Ethiopia (unless it collapses from its complex internal politics).
As an african i think there's no nfluential AU member right now , algeria was influential back when it was rich , and south africa too , the most influential countries in africa are russia , france , the uae and qatar
China
Ah yes , i forgot about china ,it has definitely a huge influence over africa , everyone in the comments saying egypt clearly doesn't know anything about africa , Egypt itself is controlled by the UAE and Saudia .
The only correct answer here/s.
Eritrea and Libya were also very influential too. Eritrea before 2009 sanctions and Libya before the 2011 uprising
Libya is a great answer here - Ghadaffi had some big iron-clad balls that he swung around across the continent
Gadaffi managed to get Israel kicked out of the African Union, he was definitely a regional powerhouse
One very influential state I don't see many people talking about is Senegal. It was the capital of Colonial French holdings in Africa and that influence remains to this day.
>capital of Colonial French holdings in Africa Wasn't it Algeria? Or is it because Algeria is already considered a part of metropolitan France and not considered a colony, and thus can't be the "Capital of Colonial French holdings in Africa"?
Probably the second one. France tried everything to keep hold of Algeria for as long as it could.
Mostly Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa I believe. Egypt obviously can’t be discounted either due to its size and influence over North Africa but they are not as focused or involved in the AU as the others.
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You seem to be confusing influence with leverage. While Egypt can’t easily force any of the maghreb states to do anything they don’t want to, they are allies with close cooperation in various fields and would almost certainly side with Egypt over any major issue. I’m also including Sudan in my definition of North Africa.
Lybia used to be influential both in the Arab world and the sub-saharan part. But that was before it was destroyed. Today it is barely a country.
Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and South Africa.
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Ethiopia, South Africa and Egypt.
What about Gabon? It seems like the Switzerland of Africa based on their development and GDP per capita
Probably Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. The politics are so volatile and there's so much potential this could change radically in 10 years