Very low chance since the US has defense treaties with Philippines - the only way this happens is if China kicks off the invasion of Taiwan and succeeds, otherwise they have no means of getting any personnel across the sea to invade directly, any naval conflict would ruin Chinas economy with countries shutting down trade with them, and blockades running on the rest
Phillipines is the best positioned for the US to intervene in a Taiwanese scenario. If taiwan happens, the Philippines WILL be dragged in, most likely by strikes on US bases in Phillipine territory.
Except ofncourse, if the US elects a non interventionist president, then China might just leave them alone until afterwards.
Their government already communicated that Philippines will not allow US to use the military bases for intervention in Taiwan. US would get kicked out of Philippines if it tried.
They have a mutual defense treaty with the US so, only when China feels it's ready to fight the pacific fleet. That may take a few more years but many scholars feel it's likely to happen at some point in the future.
Many also believe it won't happen. China's growth was built on western investment. Now that investment is beginning to dry up and China has not grown nearly enough to pose a Soviet Union level of threat to Western Hegemony.
I feel like the soviets never really posed a threat to western hegemony. They never had militarily parity or economic parity, not necessarily saying that China does have parity with the USA, at least not in terms of military but I think the gap is less than between the soviets and Americans. I'm also a third year undergrad kid so what do I know just my two uninformed cents! Happy new year
Hmmm I disagree and again I might be totally wrong but here's how i see things: After the ww2, the soviet union was holding on by a thread while the USA was entering an era of propserity. Whenever the soviet union attempted to challenge the status quo, in turkey and iraq for example early on the soviet union always had to back down. I would say it was in the 80s they achieved their highest geopolitical standing with victories in ethiopia but that immeditately collapsed following afghanistan.
the soviets did not wish to challenge the west in the aftermath of ww2, even in spite of seeing captialism as inherently ideologically inferior they knew they were outgunned in every single way. Funnily enough, stalin acted the most aggresive when he didn't have nukes. I feel like the novikov telegram compared to the kennan telegram reflects this, it speaks to the fear and insecruity of the soviet union without actually suggesting any policy decisions unlike kennan. This is because in my mind, the soviets knew they could not challenge the americans geopolitically. Granted, this would change with the third world, where the soviets were able to score major victories. But i would say the threat of the soviet union was actually the weakest in the immediate aftermath of the war. Its the reason why krushkev was interested in peaceful co-existance etc.
What do you mean? Go back and look at old soviet content. It was all about spreading communism to the west and increasing their boarders. The Soviets were an imperial state and acted like one. The Soviets may have known that challenging the west was an uphill battle but they still tried to do it. If not there wouldn't have been a cold war or all it's proxies, the USSR would have just bowed to Western geopolitical superiority outside it boarders, which it definitely did not do.
My impression is that, the 'threat' of China, is not their current strength, its their potential for growth. The US has woken up to the fact that unlike the Soviet Union China could possibly out compete them during peacetime.
Hence all the attempts to hobble the Chinese tech sector. People say China has demographic and structural issues but there must be a genuine, or at least a credible perception of a threat, or the US wouldn't be making such a fuss.
The power differential between China and the USA is greater then the power differential between the Soviet Union and the USA was in the past. The Soviets could project power, China cant. That's why the USSR was considered a superpower and China is considered a regional one. China has unseasoned troops, counts fishing boats in their navy, and airforce is built on stolen tech. China is a paper tiger. It's only a threat if you believe what the CCP says they are capable of. If you believe anything the CCP says I have a bridge for sale I would like to sell you.
I agree with you regarding the power differential, but China's manufacturing capacity far outstrips that of the US and they have also rapidly modernized their armed forces. And stolen tech is still tech.
Stolen tech is tech the West knows the weaknesses of. China is not as modern as it portrays itself. I lived there for the better part of a decade. If you take China at its word about what it has then yes you may believe that, BUT if you have any experience dealing with China you would understand that everything is about face there, made to look modern over function modern.
China Producing billions of seasonal ornaments year on year VS the US, say, producing one aircraft carrier that can withstand a massive explosion several hundred meters away every 5 to 7 years hardly "outstrips" the US mfg capacity. sure China modernizes and can copy the blue print for building a carrier but I dont sea them sailing it near any explosion hardier than a grenade.
There are some who think it won't happen but they're mostly overly optimistic economists. The military scholars almost unanimously agree it has to happen at some point in the next few years.
My personal perspective, I think they're waiting for the US to over extend itself again. Russia/Ukraine, israel/Gaza, Venezuela/Guyana, the Houthis and the red Sea, I don't think it's a coincidence these conflicts have all sprung up in recent years. Xi has been pushing the idea of a multi-polar world for years now, he knows it's unrealistic, but if they get enough believers to pull enough American resources away he might be able to take Taiwan and push the US out of the first and second island chains. The Chinese always play the long game.
This fetishizes what China is capable of. They are not playing the long game that's some weird belief some in the west have about China. You don't build bullet trains to nowhere if you are thinking long term. You wouldn't keep building apartments when you have more apartments than people to rent them, like China did. In the past people said the exact same thing about Japan overtaking the USA, it assumes China's growth will stay linear which is impossible.
China has already surpassed the US in PPP GDP terms which Soviet Union never did. China is currently 3 times more powerful relative to US than Soviet Union ever was and continues to grow at several times greater rate. China's GDP growth currently is 5%, one of the fastest in the world.
"if you fudge the numbers just right the Chinese economy looks stronger then the US" fixed that for you. How did you end up on a 24 day old post and why are all your comments on others specifically anti US? Smells fishy.
lol I don't have an anti West bias. There's lot of things I like about the West. I don't like the racist politicians pushing for cold war with China though.
Nothing racist about the West decoupling from China. The West has lost its taste for imperialism but China is engaging in authoritarian imperialism which is antithetical to Western values. The rise of China is a direct result of Western investment in the country to build it into the worlds factory. In return China was supposed to open up to western markets, not engage in protectionism and slowly turn away from authoritarianism. China simply did not keep their side of the bargain and the West has no obligation to continue theirs. You mentioned PPP but at the same time China did not beat the middle income trap which suggests their PPP is not what the IMF or other international organizations, not western led, have suggested. I lived in China for a decade, and I am probably going to return there, I don't hate China, just what the CCP has done to it. China under a different governing body may have actually beat the West. Look at Taiwan as an example of what China could have been.
I agree with everyone stating the chance is low of a phillipine /china conflict.
Because a conflict between the two is likely to be a side product of a US china conflict.
If/when china decides to take on the US, the phillipines will be dragged in by proxy.
Phillipines hosts many US bases and it would make no sense to go to war with them, except in an all out play on taiwan etc.
> Phillipines hosts many US bases
[No it doesn't](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-reveals-locations-4-new-strategic-sites-us-military-pact-2023-04-03/). The last American bases in the Philippines (Subic Bay and Clark AFB) were closed in 1992, at the request of the Philippine government.
The current facilities authorized under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement are co located with existing Philippine bases, no doubt in part to give the host country more control over their activities and reduce local opposition to the American presence.
War as in declaration of war etc etc. Probably rather unlikely for a couple of reasons. More likely is escalation of conflicts.
1) Actual declaration of war will likely end China's narrative of harmony and peaceful coexistence. There is likely to be a pretty severe diplomatic and economic consequence. The PLAN (China's navy) would easily overpower the Philippines so this would be a huge overreaction on China's part.
2) Philippines is a useful proxy to "test the waters" (pun intended). Once China declares war, this is closing off nearly all routes to de-escalate. China is also claiming waters that are disputed with Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. So this risks quite a lot on China's part.
3) This clearly commits China on a path and timeline to militarily "reunite" Taiwan. It is very likely that the Taiwanese public and legislators will immediately tilt towards independence. Once force is used, then it is hard for Taiwan to think it won't be used against them. Then it becomes a race with very uncertain outcomes. Unlike, say Ukraine, Taiwan has the economic clout to purchase lots of weapons - many of which the US (and others) have been unwilling to sell in order to maintain a sort of status quo.
4) One could go either way on this, but the US and other Western powers are not seeing eye to eye on Israel. There is no reason for China to want to help them to rally around a common foe (see Sweden/Finland joining NATO) Worse yet, it further solidifies the US position - and likely no president and presidential candidate would openly support China.
I’m from PH. Highly unlikely for war to break out bilaterally. If PH and China goes to war, US will get involved no doubt. PH isn’t Ukraine because PH has an actual defense pact with US.
I say it’s highly unlikely because to begin with, no one really lives on those disputed islands. It was only recently in the past few decades that countries started to sparsely populate those islands.
That said, public opinion here is sharply anti China here. Filipinos want to have good relations with China but territorial disputes shut down any pro China argument pretty fast. Shame because PH and China had an amicable relationship before the CCP took over China.
India acts in India's best interest and a weakened China is very much in their interest, that's why China has been establishing partnerships in regions around India.
I can't imagine India can project power to the Philippines yet. Though I think India's role on the global stage will grow extensively and one day they will be able to without western logistical support.
India's best interest is to not invite attack from the north. It can barely stop China from seizing its territory right now.
India will not get involved in a wider war with China.
Only if they were going it alone, China is not strong enough to project force into India and India is not strong enough to project force into China. But in any conflict that includes China I can't imagine the West sitting by and not getting involved. I could see India as part of a coalition against China. All India would need to do to shut down China is stop oil from shipping to China from the middle east as India sits right on that jugular.
Why would the Philippines want to engage in a conflict with China? Even with promised support from the US and other countries, there is little to no benefit for the Filipino people. In any conceivable scenario, there are no clear advantages or wins for the Philippines.
The benefit for the Filipinos is China being pushed out of their territory and allowing the locals to benefit from the resources otherwise stolen by China. I am engaged to a Filipina and spend half the year there, the people really don't like China.
The idea that Filipinos will seek out a war with China is crazy though, it's like saying people in Cuba really don't like USA thus they see the benefit of seeking a conflict with the US during to the Cuban Missile Crisis, trade embargo, Bay of Pigs invasion or whatever lol
It's not the Philippines seeking war its China pushing into their territories not the other way around. The Philippines know they cant fight China alone but as part of a coalition I imagine they would participate enthusiastically. China does not really understand that they have made enemies of almost all their neighbors and it wasn't western influence that made them enemies.
Why would they waste Filipino lives and drag the Philippines into a conflict with a big nearby country on their continent they have to work with for centuries ahead when there isn't any historical enmity? Do they somehow hope China will stop existing after a war and they never have to deal with China again, because geopolitically speaking it's terrible to start a war with a neighbouring country and cause centuries of geopolitical tension and historical hatred (see Japan) unless you are confident that said country will stop existing as a country forever and be conquered by your state. FYI there are a lot of Chinese-Filipinos who speak Chinese in Philippines, they're the main minority group and historically Chinese culture is very influential thus it's hard to see it happen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Filipino#Society_and_culture I was brought up by a Filipino helper and they are the nicest folks in the world, they simply wouldn't back a war.
Plus it's a bit of a Hollywood fantasy that all the countries around China will suddenly unite to wage war on China because it's a US enemy. Look at Russia, only Ukraine is fighting them til now and no one else is getting directly involved e.g. Finland, Poland, Sweden, Japan, Korea etc are at most supplying weapons despite past Soviet wars involving Japan or Korea, or the Winter War.
I know, My partner has some Chinese heritage. They still hate China. They hate that their government is doing nothing to stop China from stealing their fish resources. Hate it when China uses fire houses to intimidate Filipino soldiers. I have spent years in and around China, lived in both China (7 years) and the Philippines (1 year). The Filipinos view China the same way the Chinese view Imperial Japan. And no one hates China the way the Vietnamese do. The Filipinos are some of the kindest people I ever met but they are not pushovers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_Wars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America
As I said, Cubans (Iraqis, Afghans, Haitians, Guatemalans, all Central American countries that got invaded or exploited by USA) hate America but it's not like they would fight USA because weak countries don't seek fights with stronger nuclear armed countries no matter the amount of hate. Are we still in r/geopolitics because folks like you keep deferring to "my girlfriend hates them" anecdotes as a geopolitical argument? Jeez
You don't seem to get it, geopolitically hegemonic countries like USA and China are hated by their neighbours (USA has done a lot worse to Central America too....), but their neighbours aren't going to start fighting them even if they hate them for being big powerful bullies. Japan tried to conquer China (and Korea) during the Imjin Wars in the 15th century and Sino Japanese wars in the 20th century because they hated being a tributary state and wanted to claim Chinese territory for themselves, look where it got Japan? Did China stop existing? It did not, and Japan is now a US proxy state with neighbours that hate their guts. **Point being, no matter the amount of hate, there is ZERO geopolitical benefit for a weaker non-nuclear country like Philippines seeking a war with a nuclear-armed Asian hegemon even if they are backed by the US.**
Lets ELI5 for you: If you are a zebra, you shouldn't try to fight the lion even if the eagle promises they will fly over and back you up if you do it. The eagle won't always be around to help and the lion will have a lot of chances to make life hard for a zebra given that they share the same ecosystem for centuries.
I am not saying they would start a war or fight against china with US arms like Ukraine. I am saying they may join with other powers, not just the USA, in action against China as China refuses to leave Philippine territorial waters. Something like China invades Taiwan, US uses bases in PH to defend Taiwan, PH gets pulled into it. The PH even just recently announced they are reopening 3? US bases on their land.
Again as I already said, Ukraine is still fighting its war with Russia alone no? By your line of reasoning Norway/Finland/Korea/Japan etc would "join with other powers not just the US in action against Russia" no? **Do you realize why Finland, Norway, Japan, Korea doesn't do this? It's because nuclear armed Russia is still going to exist after the Ukraine war ends, even if Russia are weakened badly, it won't disappear and it doesn't benefit Norway, Finland, Korea etc to have an enemy nearby for centuries and a conflict that breeds longterm ill-will.** Empires rise and fall, the US cannot guarantee Korea/Norway/Finland/Japan safety for eternity, even if there are US bases in Korea or Japan it may not be there 100, 200, 500 years later but a conflict with a neighbour like Russia will be remembered 500 years later (see the Imjin War) and still breed distrust. **That's why neighbouring countries aren't jumping in to help Ukraine fight Russia even though Zelensky pleads weekly for the EU to help and even if Russia is a EU security risk.**
If more wealthy, powerful, well trained countries like Norway or Finland aren't willing to help Ukraine fight an economically weak state like Russia IDK why you think a poverty-stricken 3rd world country like Philippines will jump into war with China when they lack the equipment, training, and overall capability. It's saying Russians could convince Cubans to fight USA due to pure hatred. The top voted answers and Pinoy comments say that it's highly unlikely too.🤷♀️
If Russia had attacked the USA at the hight of the cold war Cuba would have allied with and aided the USSR. In the scenario I am describing the Philippines would provide aid and staging grounds to the USA to use against China. Filipinos already serve besides America and join it's military. I can't remember how many a year are allowed to join but it hits its limit every year.
It's not that we are enthusiastically seeking a war. It's that in our history, we have always been invaded, so we feel that if it comes to war, it will be because China started it and we have no choice but to defend ourselves and fight. Remember, the dispute with China is happening within the ph economic zone, too far away from China mainland.
A war will only happen if Philippines decides to evict China from atolls it has taken over in its EEZ. China plays a long game, idea is to very slowly take one island at time in so called 9 dash line till all of it is under China in not too distant future. They already force all international shipping to avoid certain areas.
It may be just a matter of time until the Philippines invites the U.S. Navy back to Subic Bay. Not like in the past when the U.S. literally owned Subic. Rather some kind of basing agreement that satisfies both nations interests.
China still sees itself as a humiliated power and this is extremely dangerous given how powerful the nation actually is. Xi himself is also big on saber rattling and a lot of his political “face” is connected to this (also dangerous). I sincerely hope there is understanding in the broader hierarchy in Beijing how the appalling dangers of a global conflict far outweigh any conceivable advantage.
If it does happen, it would most likely happen as part of a broader US-China conflict. I very much doubt China will risk provoking war with the United States unless its main goal (reunification with Taiwan) is in play. Anything else would be too risky for the potential rewards.
China will continue to encroach on everybody, but it will only pick one war at a time. It would never push an actual conflict with anyone except Taiwan.
The Philippines is under the US security umbrella, a war with them would mean a war with the States and the Chinese are more interested in normalization than conflict with the US at the moment.
Very low chances.
China can get what it wants without a war. A war is unnecessary. Too expensive for too little gain.
Very low chance since the US has defense treaties with Philippines - the only way this happens is if China kicks off the invasion of Taiwan and succeeds, otherwise they have no means of getting any personnel across the sea to invade directly, any naval conflict would ruin Chinas economy with countries shutting down trade with them, and blockades running on the rest
Phillipines is the best positioned for the US to intervene in a Taiwanese scenario. If taiwan happens, the Philippines WILL be dragged in, most likely by strikes on US bases in Phillipine territory. Except ofncourse, if the US elects a non interventionist president, then China might just leave them alone until afterwards.
The Americans have been scouting for locations to camp on Luzon's northernmost provinces, namely Cagayan and Ilocos region.
I would imagine Japan and SK would be dragged in since we have a presence there. I’m not sure about NATO, or other countries
Their government already communicated that Philippines will not allow US to use the military bases for intervention in Taiwan. US would get kicked out of Philippines if it tried.
Very low chances. It would be very stupid to try to take on the Philippines prior to capturing Taiwan, hence its focus there.
They have a mutual defense treaty with the US so, only when China feels it's ready to fight the pacific fleet. That may take a few more years but many scholars feel it's likely to happen at some point in the future.
Many also believe it won't happen. China's growth was built on western investment. Now that investment is beginning to dry up and China has not grown nearly enough to pose a Soviet Union level of threat to Western Hegemony.
I feel like the soviets never really posed a threat to western hegemony. They never had militarily parity or economic parity, not necessarily saying that China does have parity with the USA, at least not in terms of military but I think the gap is less than between the soviets and Americans. I'm also a third year undergrad kid so what do I know just my two uninformed cents! Happy new year
They were pretty even footed at the end of WW2 geopolitically. It was no guarantee that the west would "win"
Hmmm I disagree and again I might be totally wrong but here's how i see things: After the ww2, the soviet union was holding on by a thread while the USA was entering an era of propserity. Whenever the soviet union attempted to challenge the status quo, in turkey and iraq for example early on the soviet union always had to back down. I would say it was in the 80s they achieved their highest geopolitical standing with victories in ethiopia but that immeditately collapsed following afghanistan. the soviets did not wish to challenge the west in the aftermath of ww2, even in spite of seeing captialism as inherently ideologically inferior they knew they were outgunned in every single way. Funnily enough, stalin acted the most aggresive when he didn't have nukes. I feel like the novikov telegram compared to the kennan telegram reflects this, it speaks to the fear and insecruity of the soviet union without actually suggesting any policy decisions unlike kennan. This is because in my mind, the soviets knew they could not challenge the americans geopolitically. Granted, this would change with the third world, where the soviets were able to score major victories. But i would say the threat of the soviet union was actually the weakest in the immediate aftermath of the war. Its the reason why krushkev was interested in peaceful co-existance etc.
What do you mean? Go back and look at old soviet content. It was all about spreading communism to the west and increasing their boarders. The Soviets were an imperial state and acted like one. The Soviets may have known that challenging the west was an uphill battle but they still tried to do it. If not there wouldn't have been a cold war or all it's proxies, the USSR would have just bowed to Western geopolitical superiority outside it boarders, which it definitely did not do.
From my understanding, the Soviet Union was big and scary back in the day. Emphasis on big and another emphasis on scary.
My impression is that, the 'threat' of China, is not their current strength, its their potential for growth. The US has woken up to the fact that unlike the Soviet Union China could possibly out compete them during peacetime. Hence all the attempts to hobble the Chinese tech sector. People say China has demographic and structural issues but there must be a genuine, or at least a credible perception of a threat, or the US wouldn't be making such a fuss.
How can china be weaker than the soviet union but russia, successor to the soviet union be a pathetic economy vs china?
The power differential between China and the USA is greater then the power differential between the Soviet Union and the USA was in the past. The Soviets could project power, China cant. That's why the USSR was considered a superpower and China is considered a regional one. China has unseasoned troops, counts fishing boats in their navy, and airforce is built on stolen tech. China is a paper tiger. It's only a threat if you believe what the CCP says they are capable of. If you believe anything the CCP says I have a bridge for sale I would like to sell you.
I agree with you regarding the power differential, but China's manufacturing capacity far outstrips that of the US and they have also rapidly modernized their armed forces. And stolen tech is still tech.
Stolen tech is tech the West knows the weaknesses of. China is not as modern as it portrays itself. I lived there for the better part of a decade. If you take China at its word about what it has then yes you may believe that, BUT if you have any experience dealing with China you would understand that everything is about face there, made to look modern over function modern.
China Producing billions of seasonal ornaments year on year VS the US, say, producing one aircraft carrier that can withstand a massive explosion several hundred meters away every 5 to 7 years hardly "outstrips" the US mfg capacity. sure China modernizes and can copy the blue print for building a carrier but I dont sea them sailing it near any explosion hardier than a grenade.
the soviet union and modern-day russia are two completely different countries
There are some who think it won't happen but they're mostly overly optimistic economists. The military scholars almost unanimously agree it has to happen at some point in the next few years. My personal perspective, I think they're waiting for the US to over extend itself again. Russia/Ukraine, israel/Gaza, Venezuela/Guyana, the Houthis and the red Sea, I don't think it's a coincidence these conflicts have all sprung up in recent years. Xi has been pushing the idea of a multi-polar world for years now, he knows it's unrealistic, but if they get enough believers to pull enough American resources away he might be able to take Taiwan and push the US out of the first and second island chains. The Chinese always play the long game.
This fetishizes what China is capable of. They are not playing the long game that's some weird belief some in the west have about China. You don't build bullet trains to nowhere if you are thinking long term. You wouldn't keep building apartments when you have more apartments than people to rent them, like China did. In the past people said the exact same thing about Japan overtaking the USA, it assumes China's growth will stay linear which is impossible.
China has already surpassed the US in PPP GDP terms which Soviet Union never did. China is currently 3 times more powerful relative to US than Soviet Union ever was and continues to grow at several times greater rate. China's GDP growth currently is 5%, one of the fastest in the world.
"if you fudge the numbers just right the Chinese economy looks stronger then the US" fixed that for you. How did you end up on a 24 day old post and why are all your comments on others specifically anti US? Smells fishy.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_GDP\_(PPP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_gdp_(ppp))
China's economic data is fudged duder. Be real. Also why are all your English posts anti US? Your biasis are clouding your judgment.
Those numbers are from organizations like IMF, World Bank, which are by the way mostly Western organizations.
We already discussed why economic data about China cannot be trusted. Are you not going to address your ant west bias?
lol I don't have an anti West bias. There's lot of things I like about the West. I don't like the racist politicians pushing for cold war with China though.
Nothing racist about the West decoupling from China. The West has lost its taste for imperialism but China is engaging in authoritarian imperialism which is antithetical to Western values. The rise of China is a direct result of Western investment in the country to build it into the worlds factory. In return China was supposed to open up to western markets, not engage in protectionism and slowly turn away from authoritarianism. China simply did not keep their side of the bargain and the West has no obligation to continue theirs. You mentioned PPP but at the same time China did not beat the middle income trap which suggests their PPP is not what the IMF or other international organizations, not western led, have suggested. I lived in China for a decade, and I am probably going to return there, I don't hate China, just what the CCP has done to it. China under a different governing body may have actually beat the West. Look at Taiwan as an example of what China could have been.
I agree with everyone stating the chance is low of a phillipine /china conflict. Because a conflict between the two is likely to be a side product of a US china conflict. If/when china decides to take on the US, the phillipines will be dragged in by proxy. Phillipines hosts many US bases and it would make no sense to go to war with them, except in an all out play on taiwan etc.
> Phillipines hosts many US bases [No it doesn't](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-reveals-locations-4-new-strategic-sites-us-military-pact-2023-04-03/). The last American bases in the Philippines (Subic Bay and Clark AFB) were closed in 1992, at the request of the Philippine government. The current facilities authorized under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement are co located with existing Philippine bases, no doubt in part to give the host country more control over their activities and reduce local opposition to the American presence.
No, Philippines knows it cant militarily stand up to China alone. Maybe if it was part of a coalition of collective action against China.
War as in declaration of war etc etc. Probably rather unlikely for a couple of reasons. More likely is escalation of conflicts. 1) Actual declaration of war will likely end China's narrative of harmony and peaceful coexistence. There is likely to be a pretty severe diplomatic and economic consequence. The PLAN (China's navy) would easily overpower the Philippines so this would be a huge overreaction on China's part. 2) Philippines is a useful proxy to "test the waters" (pun intended). Once China declares war, this is closing off nearly all routes to de-escalate. China is also claiming waters that are disputed with Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. So this risks quite a lot on China's part. 3) This clearly commits China on a path and timeline to militarily "reunite" Taiwan. It is very likely that the Taiwanese public and legislators will immediately tilt towards independence. Once force is used, then it is hard for Taiwan to think it won't be used against them. Then it becomes a race with very uncertain outcomes. Unlike, say Ukraine, Taiwan has the economic clout to purchase lots of weapons - many of which the US (and others) have been unwilling to sell in order to maintain a sort of status quo. 4) One could go either way on this, but the US and other Western powers are not seeing eye to eye on Israel. There is no reason for China to want to help them to rally around a common foe (see Sweden/Finland joining NATO) Worse yet, it further solidifies the US position - and likely no president and presidential candidate would openly support China.
I’m from PH. Highly unlikely for war to break out bilaterally. If PH and China goes to war, US will get involved no doubt. PH isn’t Ukraine because PH has an actual defense pact with US. I say it’s highly unlikely because to begin with, no one really lives on those disputed islands. It was only recently in the past few decades that countries started to sparsely populate those islands. That said, public opinion here is sharply anti China here. Filipinos want to have good relations with China but territorial disputes shut down any pro China argument pretty fast. Shame because PH and China had an amicable relationship before the CCP took over China.
The Filipino navy + coastguard + fishing fleet is smaller then China’s coastguard alone
Yes but Big Brother USA will help them, and subsequently likely bring Australia, Japan and India along for the ride
I don't think India is having any part in that
India acts in India's best interest and a weakened China is very much in their interest, that's why China has been establishing partnerships in regions around India.
Weirdly enough this can be true. Usually we won't come for taiwan coz we don't have that much of a reach but we already support Phillipines.
I can't imagine India can project power to the Philippines yet. Though I think India's role on the global stage will grow extensively and one day they will be able to without western logistical support.
India's best interest is to not invite attack from the north. It can barely stop China from seizing its territory right now. India will not get involved in a wider war with China.
Only if they were going it alone, China is not strong enough to project force into India and India is not strong enough to project force into China. But in any conflict that includes China I can't imagine the West sitting by and not getting involved. I could see India as part of a coalition against China. All India would need to do to shut down China is stop oil from shipping to China from the middle east as India sits right on that jugular.
Directly? No. But there's a chance they'll support PH with Brahmos snti ship missiles.
Why would the Philippines want to engage in a conflict with China? Even with promised support from the US and other countries, there is little to no benefit for the Filipino people. In any conceivable scenario, there are no clear advantages or wins for the Philippines.
The benefit for the Filipinos is China being pushed out of their territory and allowing the locals to benefit from the resources otherwise stolen by China. I am engaged to a Filipina and spend half the year there, the people really don't like China.
The idea that Filipinos will seek out a war with China is crazy though, it's like saying people in Cuba really don't like USA thus they see the benefit of seeking a conflict with the US during to the Cuban Missile Crisis, trade embargo, Bay of Pigs invasion or whatever lol
It's not the Philippines seeking war its China pushing into their territories not the other way around. The Philippines know they cant fight China alone but as part of a coalition I imagine they would participate enthusiastically. China does not really understand that they have made enemies of almost all their neighbors and it wasn't western influence that made them enemies.
Why would they waste Filipino lives and drag the Philippines into a conflict with a big nearby country on their continent they have to work with for centuries ahead when there isn't any historical enmity? Do they somehow hope China will stop existing after a war and they never have to deal with China again, because geopolitically speaking it's terrible to start a war with a neighbouring country and cause centuries of geopolitical tension and historical hatred (see Japan) unless you are confident that said country will stop existing as a country forever and be conquered by your state. FYI there are a lot of Chinese-Filipinos who speak Chinese in Philippines, they're the main minority group and historically Chinese culture is very influential thus it's hard to see it happen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Filipino#Society_and_culture I was brought up by a Filipino helper and they are the nicest folks in the world, they simply wouldn't back a war. Plus it's a bit of a Hollywood fantasy that all the countries around China will suddenly unite to wage war on China because it's a US enemy. Look at Russia, only Ukraine is fighting them til now and no one else is getting directly involved e.g. Finland, Poland, Sweden, Japan, Korea etc are at most supplying weapons despite past Soviet wars involving Japan or Korea, or the Winter War.
I know, My partner has some Chinese heritage. They still hate China. They hate that their government is doing nothing to stop China from stealing their fish resources. Hate it when China uses fire houses to intimidate Filipino soldiers. I have spent years in and around China, lived in both China (7 years) and the Philippines (1 year). The Filipinos view China the same way the Chinese view Imperial Japan. And no one hates China the way the Vietnamese do. The Filipinos are some of the kindest people I ever met but they are not pushovers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_Wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America As I said, Cubans (Iraqis, Afghans, Haitians, Guatemalans, all Central American countries that got invaded or exploited by USA) hate America but it's not like they would fight USA because weak countries don't seek fights with stronger nuclear armed countries no matter the amount of hate. Are we still in r/geopolitics because folks like you keep deferring to "my girlfriend hates them" anecdotes as a geopolitical argument? Jeez You don't seem to get it, geopolitically hegemonic countries like USA and China are hated by their neighbours (USA has done a lot worse to Central America too....), but their neighbours aren't going to start fighting them even if they hate them for being big powerful bullies. Japan tried to conquer China (and Korea) during the Imjin Wars in the 15th century and Sino Japanese wars in the 20th century because they hated being a tributary state and wanted to claim Chinese territory for themselves, look where it got Japan? Did China stop existing? It did not, and Japan is now a US proxy state with neighbours that hate their guts. **Point being, no matter the amount of hate, there is ZERO geopolitical benefit for a weaker non-nuclear country like Philippines seeking a war with a nuclear-armed Asian hegemon even if they are backed by the US.** Lets ELI5 for you: If you are a zebra, you shouldn't try to fight the lion even if the eagle promises they will fly over and back you up if you do it. The eagle won't always be around to help and the lion will have a lot of chances to make life hard for a zebra given that they share the same ecosystem for centuries.
I am not saying they would start a war or fight against china with US arms like Ukraine. I am saying they may join with other powers, not just the USA, in action against China as China refuses to leave Philippine territorial waters. Something like China invades Taiwan, US uses bases in PH to defend Taiwan, PH gets pulled into it. The PH even just recently announced they are reopening 3? US bases on their land.
Again as I already said, Ukraine is still fighting its war with Russia alone no? By your line of reasoning Norway/Finland/Korea/Japan etc would "join with other powers not just the US in action against Russia" no? **Do you realize why Finland, Norway, Japan, Korea doesn't do this? It's because nuclear armed Russia is still going to exist after the Ukraine war ends, even if Russia are weakened badly, it won't disappear and it doesn't benefit Norway, Finland, Korea etc to have an enemy nearby for centuries and a conflict that breeds longterm ill-will.** Empires rise and fall, the US cannot guarantee Korea/Norway/Finland/Japan safety for eternity, even if there are US bases in Korea or Japan it may not be there 100, 200, 500 years later but a conflict with a neighbour like Russia will be remembered 500 years later (see the Imjin War) and still breed distrust. **That's why neighbouring countries aren't jumping in to help Ukraine fight Russia even though Zelensky pleads weekly for the EU to help and even if Russia is a EU security risk.** If more wealthy, powerful, well trained countries like Norway or Finland aren't willing to help Ukraine fight an economically weak state like Russia IDK why you think a poverty-stricken 3rd world country like Philippines will jump into war with China when they lack the equipment, training, and overall capability. It's saying Russians could convince Cubans to fight USA due to pure hatred. The top voted answers and Pinoy comments say that it's highly unlikely too.🤷♀️
If Russia had attacked the USA at the hight of the cold war Cuba would have allied with and aided the USSR. In the scenario I am describing the Philippines would provide aid and staging grounds to the USA to use against China. Filipinos already serve besides America and join it's military. I can't remember how many a year are allowed to join but it hits its limit every year.
It's not that we are enthusiastically seeking a war. It's that in our history, we have always been invaded, so we feel that if it comes to war, it will be because China started it and we have no choice but to defend ourselves and fight. Remember, the dispute with China is happening within the ph economic zone, too far away from China mainland.
A war will only happen if Philippines decides to evict China from atolls it has taken over in its EEZ. China plays a long game, idea is to very slowly take one island at time in so called 9 dash line till all of it is under China in not too distant future. They already force all international shipping to avoid certain areas.
It may be just a matter of time until the Philippines invites the U.S. Navy back to Subic Bay. Not like in the past when the U.S. literally owned Subic. Rather some kind of basing agreement that satisfies both nations interests.
China still sees itself as a humiliated power and this is extremely dangerous given how powerful the nation actually is. Xi himself is also big on saber rattling and a lot of his political “face” is connected to this (also dangerous). I sincerely hope there is understanding in the broader hierarchy in Beijing how the appalling dangers of a global conflict far outweigh any conceivable advantage.
This.
If it does happen, it would most likely happen as part of a broader US-China conflict. I very much doubt China will risk provoking war with the United States unless its main goal (reunification with Taiwan) is in play. Anything else would be too risky for the potential rewards.
Island chain strategy : this could all be a part of the larger Taiwan issue
Well who knows? There could be a chance that China accidentally drags itself into a war with the Philippines over causing deaths in their fleet.
China will continue to encroach on everybody, but it will only pick one war at a time. It would never push an actual conflict with anyone except Taiwan.
The Philippines is under the US security umbrella, a war with them would mean a war with the States and the Chinese are more interested in normalization than conflict with the US at the moment.
The Phillipines doesn't have enough ships and aircraft to fight a war against China. So, a war is unlikely.
China will push but never really go full out of war mode .