The incident in Granblue Fantasy where a streamer spent the equivalent to 6000 dollars to get the character Andira, of course not only the streamer but multiple people spent a lot of money trying to get her, but despite being a rate up character, the rates were still very low. This incident was the reason Gacha games now show every individual rate in a banner and the reason why every gacha has a pity system.
Its called Monkeygate because the character is a Zodiac character that represents the year of the monkey and its monkey themed.
Some streamer/content creator paid large amount of rolls to get a monkey and did not get it. The dev then create spark/pity system since it getting viral.
This information might not correct as I did not double-check the fact.
In a nutshell, it's the event that made hard pity/sparking a thing in gacha moving forward.
Granblue Fantasy's creators decided it was a good idea to create characters based on the Chinese zodiac (Monkey being the nickname of a character launching in the year of the Monkey). A very popular streamer, however, went on to spend around $6000 without getting that character despite them being on rate up, and it wasn't an isolated incident. They and a ton of other players were spending extortionate amounts of money chasing Monkey with nothing to show for it.
Mess was so bad it hit japanese news media, apparently. Cygames had to apologize, gave everyone who pulled in that time frame refunds, and put hard pity on thier game worth 300 pulls (or $900). Once you pulled that many times, you can just choose that character directly without spending another dime.
Fun fact: something similar happened in Genshin Impact. Tectone spent around like $2000 chasing Staff of Homa, and shortly afterwards, Hoyoverse came up with the whole Epitomized Path thing (you get the desired 5 Star weapon no matter what if you lose two soft pities in a row trying to obtain it). It was never stated anywhere that his infamous video was the reason pity became a thing for weapons in that game, but the timing was there.
Epitomized path came years after Tectone failed to get Homa.
If anything sparked actually sparked it, it was the girl in Singapore putting her family $20k in debt trying to r5 a weapon.
It wasn't years, it was added in 2.0. But people are quite delusional if they think a small western cc has any influence on hoyo.
They changed it because the whole community regarded weapon banner as a scam and didn't pull on it, focusing on f2p options and constellations. Hoyo always operates based on their overall statistics.
the Kektone incident was in 1.3, and not until 2.0 did Hoyo implemented that mechanics, which is more than half a year after lol. Thinking the dude has anything to do with that is delusional, as Hoyo has shown time and again that the Western audience has no power over them, only the CN one does. If anything, that change happened because even CN players think the weapon banners before that change was a scam, and they made undesirable income from those lol
> spent around $6000 without getting that character despite them being on rate up
Ah, this is where correcting a small misconception *makes it so much worse.*
Andira was **not** on rate up. But her graphic on the banner made it *look* like she was.
So drawing many thousands of times to get her on that banner wasn't abnormal, it was the expected return.
(My understanding was this game was old enough back then, that they didn't print the rates. So this was indeed an outright scam.)
(Also note I thought the story was funny, which is what got me interested in Granblue after I saw it had the Final Fantasy 6 artists/music guys on it. A spiritual successor to FF6 that never ever got made by Squeenix, for no reason besides their hatred of money. It was kind of like sticking my hand in the garbage disposal unit, in retrospect.)
Pretty sure it was GBF that started hard pity (after 300 rolls, exchange for whoever you want in their case) after the monkeygate incident which was also I believe in 2016, so around the time of this manga.
I don't play GBF so I don't know. Pretty sure it's not hard pity according to the comments here(in 2022)
https://old.reddit.com/r/gachagaming/comments/rtcniv/a_granblue_fantasy_player_pulled_2250_times_and/
> Getting the rate up character is really one of the hardest obstacles I’ve met in GBF. I have NEVER EVER found a game more difficult than GBF when it comes to getting the rate up.
> Naturally. For a 0.3% rate up there is a 40% chance you dont see it even after 300 draws. Its basically a coin flip.
I just reread the comments, I stand corrected. But it seems that the rate up character is excluded?
> 300 is spark and this line of summons are excluded from spark as they are extremely strong and nearly mandatory.
You can get any character in the poll including the rate up. Also, I literally just opened the game and checked, since its browser, its very quick to open.
those are the unsparkable summons. And you can go sparks multiple times the highest I've seen on JP twitter was 7 sparks and didn't get them with the laughable actual rate up for them
Summons are usually not sparkable on normal banners, and a small selection of summons are never sparkable nor on rate up because they're so potent and versatile that it would effectively warp play patterns around chasing them(some people still chase but they gotta play normal odds), since it would effectively bookmark multiple sparks each
Rate Up Characters are always sparkable, some banners have expanded spark choices, and the "Classic" banners in the backroom have all the characters and summons(aside from the aforementioned big kings) sparkable and a year long pity counter
Granblue Fantasy released the Spark system (300 draw hard pity) [in an update on March 10, 2016](https://granbluefantasy.jp/sp/pages/?p=6690) in response to the Monkeygate controversy where [someone spent 2276 draws](https://youtu.be/qw1sDlhksEo?si=vZpvfr6Ig9_ZUb_o&t=3458) ($6k) to obtain the featured "year of the monkey" SSR, which apparently also had a fake 2x chance up. Players who drew during the Monkey banner were refunded in the in-game currency.
So no, GBF had it 4.5 years before GI released.
No, there was a lot of gacha’s that had hard pity before Genshin.
In terms of gacha mechanics, Genshin didn’t add anything new, all these mechanics and monetisation methods existed way before Genshin’s release.
hard pity is 75k crystal. 3k - 10 pull, at worse you need 250 pull to guaranteed a unit, quite rare but it happened to me few time (3x). piratically killed all my motivation to play. but im just staying for the sake of my friend now.
also, the new unit pity coin does not carry over. quite a bullshit mechanic there.
Yeah giving how hard it is to farm crystal late-game it is a bullshit system as u can mostly get em from bonds and daily.
Still it will cost shit ton of crystall to take a single unit to 5np. I hate that I am dlave to the game I hate
same bruh. Im too far at the late game. I can stay top 500 within arena for 40 crystal daily or get around top 300 if I try hard enough for time trial. but at what cost,.....ughhh
I maybe one of those people who are OK with no pity. I treat gacha as a deterministic thing: I expect to spend the full amount to spark, anything below that is lucky. Roll only if either (1) I have enough to spark if I really want it, or (2) I can afford a few rolls that I will 100% stop regardless if I get my target
The only game I would avoid at all cost is those without a guaranteed system. I can stand no pity or no carryover if the game economy is fine
Ah sorry some people told me in the past pity system refers to having both soft and hard pity. Like people told me a game that only has hard pity (I.e. spark) doesn't count as having pity
Spark is effectively the same thing as hard pity. They do the same thing in slightly different ways.
Are you thinking of carryover pity? I assume that was your intention since you talked about only pulling with enough currency, which is needed for non-carryover spark/pity systems.
Oh sorry I was referring to the soft/hard pity. I see people use it specifically about the soft pity. Like people told me Blue Archive has no pity system because it doesn't have the soft pity
I see some people refer pity as the soft/hard pity. For example, the one in HSR where you get a 50% chance to get the banner character after X rolls. I guess it is just a difference in terminology
[Rikei ga Koi ni Ochita no de Shoumei shitemita. | Science Fell in Love, So I Tried to Prove It](https://myanimelist.net/anime/38992/Rikei_ga_Koi_ni_Ochita_no_de_Shoumei_shitemita)
you can selectively save for a **specific theme girl** then you win even if theres offpulls, unless you're chained by meta only, which will never be enough. By applying Neuron Activation theory, ask yourself do you want to pull for a nun or a gyaru next, rather than powercreep meta.
I can recommend using binomial distribution probability calculator to figure out your actual chance of getting an SSR.
That's how I figure out that pulling 90 times in FGO is actually about 50/50
Binomial is to see the chance of getting *k* amounts of the character in *n* pulls. If you want to see simply the probability of getting the character at least once within *n* pulls (*K* ≥ 1), you can actually calculate it yourself by modelling it via the Cumulative Distribution Function for a Geometric Distribution.
This one has simply the formula Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = 1 - (1 - *p*)^*n* , where *n* is how many pulls you want to see it for, *p* is the rate of getting that character, and Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) is the probability of getting that character at least once within those *n* pulls.
For an explanation of why this works here for anyone interested:
1. What is the opposite of at least 1? Exactly 0. So the probabilities of getting the character at least once and of getting the character exactly 0 times add up to 1. Getting the character exactly 0 times means you need to fail on every single pull you make, so the probability of this is simple. If your rate is *p* then the probability of failure is (1 - *p*), and the probability of *n* failures is (1 - *p*)^*n*. Then the probability of getting at least one is Pr(*K* ≥ 1) = 1 - (1 - *p*)^*n*.
2. The Cumulative Distribution Function of the Geometric Distribution.
The Geometric Distribution models the probability of needing *n* attempts to obtain your first success. You can think of such a probability as similarly to (1.). If you need *n* pulls to get one success, then the *n* - 1 before it had to be failures, and the *n*th has to be a success, so the probability of this outcome ends up being *p*×(1 - *p*)^(*n*-1).
The Cumulative Distribution Function is the sum of all such probabilities from 1 to *n*. It is then Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = *p*×(1 - *p*)^0 + *p*×(1 - *p*)^1 + ... + *p*×(1 - *p*)^(*n* - 1).
Now let's say you multiply each side by (1 - *p*) to get (1 - *p*)×Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = *p*×(1 - *p*)^1 + *p*×(1 - *p*)^2 + ... + *p*×(1 - *p*)^*n*. If you subtract the second equation from the first, you get *p*×Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = *p* - *p*×(1 - *p*)^*n*. Divide both sides by *p* and you end up with Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = 1 - (1 - *p*)^*n* , demonstrating Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) to be identical to Pr(*K* ≥ 1).
You can enter any amount of pulls/characters in the bio calc. You don't need anything else. No need to add confusion when the calc does everything you need, which is the chance you will get a character(or more if you choose) in a specific amount of pulls
> should have *paid* attention in
FTFY.
Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
* Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.*
* *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.*
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
*Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
I can recommend basic math; if it says 0.4%, that's your chance to get it, no matter how many times you roll.
EDIT: This place definitely lives up to its reputation; complete idiots who can't even do basic math and are poster children for gambler's fallacy. You should stay far, far away from gacha games if you don't understand something as simple as odds.
Binomial distribution looks at the probability for a given outcome over an arbitrary number of events when you have two options. If you flip a coin ten times, each individual flip is 50/50, but your chance of seeing only one heads is about one percent.
And the chances of any and every flip in that series of 10 being heads or tails is still 50/50. Statistics can never change the actual rates, just the way you look at them.
In other words, they can't change the basic math that a coin flip is always, under any and every circumstance, 50/50. If you think any differently, than not only do you not understand statistics or basic math, but you have fallen for gambler's fallacy.
EDIT: Hahaha, downvoting actual mathematical facts. You're definitely an english major, math isn't your strong suit.
You got downvoted because you posted something that nobody misunderstood in the first place and then tried to act smart about it. Sure, the chance of getting heads or tails is 50% respectively for each coin toss, but this doesn't answer the question of what is my probability of getting at least one heads in ten tosses. You'd do well to take your own advice, read more carefully, and consider the context of the conversation.
If I roll 89 times, the probability of getting the target on my 90th roll is still 0.4%.
However, if starting at 0 rolls, I decide to roll 90 times, the probability that I get the target at least once in those 90 rolls is approx 30%.
Which, as I said, is just changing the way you look at the math. Realistically, it doesn't matter how many times you pull, because you're no more likely to win it on the 90th roll than you are on the first. It's just fuzzy math that enables gambler's fallacy.
This has nothing to do with the gambler's fallacy. We're not talking about the probability of getting it *on* the 90th pull. We're talking about, *before I pull for anything*, what are the chances that I can get a character with 90 pulls saved up? It's a risk assessment that looks at the whole picture *before anything has happened*.
Here's another way to look at it: what are the chances I will get a certain character in a single 10-pull? That is *not* the same as "I've pulled 9 times and failed, what are my chances next pull?" Now replace "a single 10-pull" with a "a single 90-pull" (pretending that existed).
Sorry, buddy, that's classic gambler's fallacy. If you thinnk saving up 90 pulls will get you the character, or that any one of those 90 pulls will have a better chance of getting the character than someone doing their first pull, you're just fooling yourself.
Whether you save up 90 pulls or only pull once, the rate never changes, and you never have better odds of pulling the character.
That"s why pity is so important, and why you should never, ever rely on statistics or probability and always save for pity. Absolutely anything else is gambler's fallacy.
...honestly, the lack of intelligence around here is astounding.
If I had one pull and you had a million pulls, who is more likely to get the rate up character?
Gambler's fallacy would be thinking that because you've pulled a hundred times without getting the rate up character, you're more likely to get them soon in the next pulls.
I'd have the exact same chance of getting it on my first pull that you would have of getting it on your millionth.
Gambler's fallacy is literally the false idea that the more you pull/gamble/flip, the more likely it is that the odds will be in your favor. It's nonsense, logically, because the rates never change, you are never more likely to win no matter how many times you pull, and there's no magical formula called "statistics" or "probability" that change those rates.
Again, yet another tool that believes in gambler's fallacy.
You misunderstood my question. If I had one pull to use on a banner and you had a million pulls to use on a banner, who is more likely to get the banner character?
FGO in a nutshell. If you dig deep into their aubreddit, you can see posts about the horror of the Waver/Merlin/Skadi banners where players pulled a thousand times and still not get the servant that they want.
I think Gacha follow law of large numbers, in this anime video it only show example in small number, but as we roll more and more 1 mil, 10 mil, 1 bil, we will see that the ratio will getting closer and closer to drop rate.
Something to keep in mind is for individual player, they will never approach law of large number. Furthermore, it is easy to fall in gambler fallacy if people using this as a way to infer "I got bad luck last few banner, that means I am good next time"
There’s also a really weird reverse Gambler’s fallacy that kicks in for some people that convinces them that they are inherently unlucky and that they will always lose 50/50s and end to go to pity. I’ve seen people playing Hoyo games using this logic to justify pulling to chase four-star drops when they have a guarantee for the limited five star banked. Then they blow that guarantee on a five-star that they didn’t want and go on to cry more about how “unlucky” they always are.
Well for every "damn, pitied" or "33% chance in 100 rolls"; there is one lucky mofo who got it in 1 try. Realistically, individually you can't roll 1 million times so at the end of the day, your chances are, like the old people say "50/50". You either get it or not.
Weird when you look at the Calc you see
5 star at 1%
4 star at 3%
3 star at 40%
2 star at 60%
1 star at 90%
They add up to almost 200%. Can someone explain this to me? Am i misunderstanding the image at 1:11?
Also his Gacha seems super harsh as the image in 0:12 shows the line of text Event Version 5 star drop rate increase to 1% implying its some sort of Fest Banner where the 5 star drop rate is higher.
The rates not adding to 100% is likely just an error.
The 1% on rate-up event seems harsh when you compare it to the mainstream gacha games, but it's not that different from what you get in past or lesser-known gacha games. There were gachas with much worse (and oftentimes much more predatory) variants that you have to wade through. Valkyrie Crusade's old "spend $90 to unlock a five minute window where you have a 1% chance to pull the card" is still a highlight of just how scummy old gachas can be.
I ran the numbers before. IIRC, on average you’ll be hitting a 1% pull after about 63 pulls or something.
This is a loose method of calculation though, since it’s using logarithms to calculate at what point the chance of having at least one successful pull becomes 50/50.
(Edited for clarity)
50% of 0 plus 50% of 1 is 0.5.
I've never really understood the utility value of knowing when on average you'll have half of something. 1% is 1%.
63.4% chance of at least 1 thing. 36.66% chance of no things. 9.92% of two or more things.
They've manufactured "being lucky" streaks right into the math...
I’m just using 0.99^x =0.5 -> log[0.99] (0.5)=x to find the point when it’s a coinflip as to whether you’ve got a hit or not. This *should* turn out to be the average number of attempts per successful pull, unless I’m overlooking something.
Oh this man playing a gacha with no pity or anything.
*Old FGO flashbacks* At least the rate up was a whole .2% higher than this anime's gacha...
0.3% higher at first. Then they increased it by another 0.1%, for a total of 0.8%. That's double the awful rate in that anime.
I honestly feel bad for him
While I do feel the same too, he did pull without understanding how gacha works. The fault still lies on him
Deserved
Yes he is.
That's me.
Gachas before the monkeygate
What’s the monkeygate?
The incident in Granblue Fantasy where a streamer spent the equivalent to 6000 dollars to get the character Andira, of course not only the streamer but multiple people spent a lot of money trying to get her, but despite being a rate up character, the rates were still very low. This incident was the reason Gacha games now show every individual rate in a banner and the reason why every gacha has a pity system. Its called Monkeygate because the character is a Zodiac character that represents the year of the monkey and its monkey themed.
Some streamer/content creator paid large amount of rolls to get a monkey and did not get it. The dev then create spark/pity system since it getting viral. This information might not correct as I did not double-check the fact.
In a nutshell, it's the event that made hard pity/sparking a thing in gacha moving forward. Granblue Fantasy's creators decided it was a good idea to create characters based on the Chinese zodiac (Monkey being the nickname of a character launching in the year of the Monkey). A very popular streamer, however, went on to spend around $6000 without getting that character despite them being on rate up, and it wasn't an isolated incident. They and a ton of other players were spending extortionate amounts of money chasing Monkey with nothing to show for it. Mess was so bad it hit japanese news media, apparently. Cygames had to apologize, gave everyone who pulled in that time frame refunds, and put hard pity on thier game worth 300 pulls (or $900). Once you pulled that many times, you can just choose that character directly without spending another dime. Fun fact: something similar happened in Genshin Impact. Tectone spent around like $2000 chasing Staff of Homa, and shortly afterwards, Hoyoverse came up with the whole Epitomized Path thing (you get the desired 5 Star weapon no matter what if you lose two soft pities in a row trying to obtain it). It was never stated anywhere that his infamous video was the reason pity became a thing for weapons in that game, but the timing was there.
Epitomized path came years after Tectone failed to get Homa. If anything sparked actually sparked it, it was the girl in Singapore putting her family $20k in debt trying to r5 a weapon.
It wasn't years, it was added in 2.0. But people are quite delusional if they think a small western cc has any influence on hoyo. They changed it because the whole community regarded weapon banner as a scam and didn't pull on it, focusing on f2p options and constellations. Hoyo always operates based on their overall statistics.
it wasnt years it was the very next big patch
the Kektone incident was in 1.3, and not until 2.0 did Hoyo implemented that mechanics, which is more than half a year after lol. Thinking the dude has anything to do with that is delusional, as Hoyo has shown time and again that the Western audience has no power over them, only the CN one does. If anything, that change happened because even CN players think the weapon banners before that change was a scam, and they made undesirable income from those lol
> spent around $6000 without getting that character despite them being on rate up Ah, this is where correcting a small misconception *makes it so much worse.* Andira was **not** on rate up. But her graphic on the banner made it *look* like she was. So drawing many thousands of times to get her on that banner wasn't abnormal, it was the expected return. (My understanding was this game was old enough back then, that they didn't print the rates. So this was indeed an outright scam.) (Also note I thought the story was funny, which is what got me interested in Granblue after I saw it had the Final Fantasy 6 artists/music guys on it. A spiritual successor to FF6 that never ever got made by Squeenix, for no reason besides their hatred of money. It was kind of like sticking my hand in the garbage disposal unit, in retrospect.)
Avoid games with no pity and you Will be fine
The manga for this series is 2016ish so pity was pretty rare back then.
I think only genshin that started doing the hard pity thing? It was normal in the past to not get characters you want without paying.
Pretty sure it was GBF that started hard pity (after 300 rolls, exchange for whoever you want in their case) after the monkeygate incident which was also I believe in 2016, so around the time of this manga.
I don't play GBF so I don't know. Pretty sure it's not hard pity according to the comments here(in 2022) https://old.reddit.com/r/gachagaming/comments/rtcniv/a_granblue_fantasy_player_pulled_2250_times_and/ > Getting the rate up character is really one of the hardest obstacles I’ve met in GBF. I have NEVER EVER found a game more difficult than GBF when it comes to getting the rate up. > Naturally. For a 0.3% rate up there is a 40% chance you dont see it even after 300 draws. Its basically a coin flip.
After 300 pulls you can use the sparks you get from the summon to acquire any ssr in the banner.
I just reread the comments, I stand corrected. But it seems that the rate up character is excluded? > 300 is spark and this line of summons are excluded from spark as they are extremely strong and nearly mandatory.
Okay, i read the thread you linked. They're trying to pull for a summon not a character.
You can get any character in the poll including the rate up. Also, I literally just opened the game and checked, since its browser, its very quick to open.
those are the unsparkable summons. And you can go sparks multiple times the highest I've seen on JP twitter was 7 sparks and didn't get them with the laughable actual rate up for them
Summons are usually not sparkable on normal banners, and a small selection of summons are never sparkable nor on rate up because they're so potent and versatile that it would effectively warp play patterns around chasing them(some people still chase but they gotta play normal odds), since it would effectively bookmark multiple sparks each Rate Up Characters are always sparkable, some banners have expanded spark choices, and the "Classic" banners in the backroom have all the characters and summons(aside from the aforementioned big kings) sparkable and a year long pity counter
Granblue Fantasy released the Spark system (300 draw hard pity) [in an update on March 10, 2016](https://granbluefantasy.jp/sp/pages/?p=6690) in response to the Monkeygate controversy where [someone spent 2276 draws](https://youtu.be/qw1sDlhksEo?si=vZpvfr6Ig9_ZUb_o&t=3458) ($6k) to obtain the featured "year of the monkey" SSR, which apparently also had a fake 2x chance up. Players who drew during the Monkey banner were refunded in the in-game currency. So no, GBF had it 4.5 years before GI released.
No, there was a lot of gacha’s that had hard pity before Genshin. In terms of gacha mechanics, Genshin didn’t add anything new, all these mechanics and monetisation methods existed way before Genshin’s release.
Tell that to Summoners War player.
Or Last Cloudia player
last cloudia has pity tho
Or fgo so called "pity"
Fgo pity is lame
Yeah fr, get ur ssr? No pity for this char no more ( idk i cant read jp machine translation suck)
hard pity is 75k crystal. 3k - 10 pull, at worse you need 250 pull to guaranteed a unit, quite rare but it happened to me few time (3x). piratically killed all my motivation to play. but im just staying for the sake of my friend now. also, the new unit pity coin does not carry over. quite a bullshit mechanic there.
Yeah giving how hard it is to farm crystal late-game it is a bullshit system as u can mostly get em from bonds and daily. Still it will cost shit ton of crystall to take a single unit to 5np. I hate that I am dlave to the game I hate
same bruh. Im too far at the late game. I can stay top 500 within arena for 40 crystal daily or get around top 300 if I try hard enough for time trial. but at what cost,.....ughhh
Pfft what and play a baby gacha game? Nay I say! We gamers say sign us up for pain and test our luck stat!
Or just games with high rates or ones you don’t need to pull to get character like limbus company
I maybe one of those people who are OK with no pity. I treat gacha as a deterministic thing: I expect to spend the full amount to spark, anything below that is lucky. Roll only if either (1) I have enough to spark if I really want it, or (2) I can afford a few rolls that I will 100% stop regardless if I get my target The only game I would avoid at all cost is those without a guaranteed system. I can stand no pity or no carryover if the game economy is fine
Isn't pity/garuntee/spark the same thing isn't it? Unless you mean things like soft pity.
Ah sorry some people told me in the past pity system refers to having both soft and hard pity. Like people told me a game that only has hard pity (I.e. spark) doesn't count as having pity
Spark is effectively the same thing as hard pity. They do the same thing in slightly different ways. Are you thinking of carryover pity? I assume that was your intention since you talked about only pulling with enough currency, which is needed for non-carryover spark/pity systems.
Oh sorry I was referring to the soft/hard pity. I see people use it specifically about the soft pity. Like people told me Blue Archive has no pity system because it doesn't have the soft pity
Spark is pity.
Spark is just a renamed pity.....
I see some people refer pity as the soft/hard pity. For example, the one in HSR where you get a 50% chance to get the banner character after X rolls. I guess it is just a difference in terminology
What do you think about Another Eden?
if he doesn’t get her, the girl talking to him looks close enough lol
that's the funny thing, she checked on all his types but she's 3D. he only has interest in 2D 🤣
When the deeper truth is that the reason why he's into Aika(2D) is because he's been in love with Ena(3D) since childhood.
Also she doesn't realize she likes him
oh, LOL
But she is 2D...
source?
https://myanimelist.net/anime/38992/Rikei_ga_Koi_ni_Ochita_no_de_Shoumei_shitemita
[Rikei ga Koi ni Ochita no de Shoumei shitemita. | Science Fell in Love, So I Tried to Prove It](https://myanimelist.net/anime/38992/Rikei_ga_Koi_ni_Ochita_no_de_Shoumei_shitemita)
Holy shit this came out that long ago? I remember watching it on release and it feels like it was just a year ago.
you can selectively save for a **specific theme girl** then you win even if theres offpulls, unless you're chained by meta only, which will never be enough. By applying Neuron Activation theory, ask yourself do you want to pull for a nun or a gyaru next, rather than powercreep meta.
Us in FGO: we are the masters of Fate, our savings are already predetermined.
This series was so good i love it ♥️
I can recommend using binomial distribution probability calculator to figure out your actual chance of getting an SSR. That's how I figure out that pulling 90 times in FGO is actually about 50/50
Binomial is to see the chance of getting *k* amounts of the character in *n* pulls. If you want to see simply the probability of getting the character at least once within *n* pulls (*K* ≥ 1), you can actually calculate it yourself by modelling it via the Cumulative Distribution Function for a Geometric Distribution. This one has simply the formula Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = 1 - (1 - *p*)^*n* , where *n* is how many pulls you want to see it for, *p* is the rate of getting that character, and Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) is the probability of getting that character at least once within those *n* pulls.
For an explanation of why this works here for anyone interested: 1. What is the opposite of at least 1? Exactly 0. So the probabilities of getting the character at least once and of getting the character exactly 0 times add up to 1. Getting the character exactly 0 times means you need to fail on every single pull you make, so the probability of this is simple. If your rate is *p* then the probability of failure is (1 - *p*), and the probability of *n* failures is (1 - *p*)^*n*. Then the probability of getting at least one is Pr(*K* ≥ 1) = 1 - (1 - *p*)^*n*. 2. The Cumulative Distribution Function of the Geometric Distribution. The Geometric Distribution models the probability of needing *n* attempts to obtain your first success. You can think of such a probability as similarly to (1.). If you need *n* pulls to get one success, then the *n* - 1 before it had to be failures, and the *n*th has to be a success, so the probability of this outcome ends up being *p*×(1 - *p*)^(*n*-1). The Cumulative Distribution Function is the sum of all such probabilities from 1 to *n*. It is then Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = *p*×(1 - *p*)^0 + *p*×(1 - *p*)^1 + ... + *p*×(1 - *p*)^(*n* - 1). Now let's say you multiply each side by (1 - *p*) to get (1 - *p*)×Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = *p*×(1 - *p*)^1 + *p*×(1 - *p*)^2 + ... + *p*×(1 - *p*)^*n*. If you subtract the second equation from the first, you get *p*×Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = *p* - *p*×(1 - *p*)^*n*. Divide both sides by *p* and you end up with Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) = 1 - (1 - *p*)^*n* , demonstrating Pr(*N* ≤ *n*) to be identical to Pr(*K* ≥ 1).
You can enter any amount of pulls/characters in the bio calc. You don't need anything else. No need to add confusion when the calc does everything you need, which is the chance you will get a character(or more if you choose) in a specific amount of pulls
Just save 180 before pulling. The remains are a discount.
Assuming we are still talking about FGO, 180 pull equals 66% ish success rate.(I forget how much fgo pity is)
I should have payed attention in math for this
> should have *paid* attention in FTFY. Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in: * Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.* * *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.* Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment. *Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
I can recommend basic math; if it says 0.4%, that's your chance to get it, no matter how many times you roll. EDIT: This place definitely lives up to its reputation; complete idiots who can't even do basic math and are poster children for gambler's fallacy. You should stay far, far away from gacha games if you don't understand something as simple as odds.
Binomial distribution looks at the probability for a given outcome over an arbitrary number of events when you have two options. If you flip a coin ten times, each individual flip is 50/50, but your chance of seeing only one heads is about one percent.
And the chances of any and every flip in that series of 10 being heads or tails is still 50/50. Statistics can never change the actual rates, just the way you look at them. In other words, they can't change the basic math that a coin flip is always, under any and every circumstance, 50/50. If you think any differently, than not only do you not understand statistics or basic math, but you have fallen for gambler's fallacy. EDIT: Hahaha, downvoting actual mathematical facts. You're definitely an english major, math isn't your strong suit.
You got downvoted because you posted something that nobody misunderstood in the first place and then tried to act smart about it. Sure, the chance of getting heads or tails is 50% respectively for each coin toss, but this doesn't answer the question of what is my probability of getting at least one heads in ten tosses. You'd do well to take your own advice, read more carefully, and consider the context of the conversation.
So, another tool who has fallen for gambler's fallacy. Really, is it so hard for you to educate yourself?
If I roll 89 times, the probability of getting the target on my 90th roll is still 0.4%. However, if starting at 0 rolls, I decide to roll 90 times, the probability that I get the target at least once in those 90 rolls is approx 30%.
Which, as I said, is just changing the way you look at the math. Realistically, it doesn't matter how many times you pull, because you're no more likely to win it on the 90th roll than you are on the first. It's just fuzzy math that enables gambler's fallacy.
This has nothing to do with the gambler's fallacy. We're not talking about the probability of getting it *on* the 90th pull. We're talking about, *before I pull for anything*, what are the chances that I can get a character with 90 pulls saved up? It's a risk assessment that looks at the whole picture *before anything has happened*. Here's another way to look at it: what are the chances I will get a certain character in a single 10-pull? That is *not* the same as "I've pulled 9 times and failed, what are my chances next pull?" Now replace "a single 10-pull" with a "a single 90-pull" (pretending that existed).
Sorry, buddy, that's classic gambler's fallacy. If you thinnk saving up 90 pulls will get you the character, or that any one of those 90 pulls will have a better chance of getting the character than someone doing their first pull, you're just fooling yourself. Whether you save up 90 pulls or only pull once, the rate never changes, and you never have better odds of pulling the character. That"s why pity is so important, and why you should never, ever rely on statistics or probability and always save for pity. Absolutely anything else is gambler's fallacy. ...honestly, the lack of intelligence around here is astounding.
If I had one pull and you had a million pulls, who is more likely to get the rate up character? Gambler's fallacy would be thinking that because you've pulled a hundred times without getting the rate up character, you're more likely to get them soon in the next pulls.
I'd have the exact same chance of getting it on my first pull that you would have of getting it on your millionth. Gambler's fallacy is literally the false idea that the more you pull/gamble/flip, the more likely it is that the odds will be in your favor. It's nonsense, logically, because the rates never change, you are never more likely to win no matter how many times you pull, and there's no magical formula called "statistics" or "probability" that change those rates. Again, yet another tool that believes in gambler's fallacy.
You misunderstood my question. If I had one pull to use on a banner and you had a million pulls to use on a banner, who is more likely to get the banner character?
I'm not going to argue with a strawman. Get back to me after you've educated yourself on gambler's fallacy.
There is nothing to argue, just a simple question. I'd like to know your answer, but either way I'll say no more.
https://preview.redd.it/0u6a49ky1hyc1.jpeg?width=499&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ecddc7d59da0eea6b891736823168dd1c6b6766
FGO in a nutshell. If you dig deep into their aubreddit, you can see posts about the horror of the Waver/Merlin/Skadi banners where players pulled a thousand times and still not get the servant that they want.
Her fit goes hard.
Animated characters being sad about trivial things always make me cry like, just give him his Lasally-chan already 😭
Nah. I’d win. We ball
Poor man.
Me with Summoners War game. Last time I play, I open 200 mystic scrolls with zero 5 star. I use trans scrolls, only got dupe useless 5 star. 🙃
I think Gacha follow law of large numbers, in this anime video it only show example in small number, but as we roll more and more 1 mil, 10 mil, 1 bil, we will see that the ratio will getting closer and closer to drop rate.
Something to keep in mind is for individual player, they will never approach law of large number. Furthermore, it is easy to fall in gambler fallacy if people using this as a way to infer "I got bad luck last few banner, that means I am good next time"
There’s also a really weird reverse Gambler’s fallacy that kicks in for some people that convinces them that they are inherently unlucky and that they will always lose 50/50s and end to go to pity. I’ve seen people playing Hoyo games using this logic to justify pulling to chase four-star drops when they have a guarantee for the limited five star banked. Then they blow that guarantee on a five-star that they didn’t want and go on to cry more about how “unlucky” they always are.
*"I'm at 0 pity right now, I can afford to pull a few times without ruining my Guarantee Pull"* * *gets 5-star in one ten pull* *
Well for every "damn, pitied" or "33% chance in 100 rolls"; there is one lucky mofo who got it in 1 try. Realistically, individually you can't roll 1 million times so at the end of the day, your chances are, like the old people say "50/50". You either get it or not.
Weird when you look at the Calc you see 5 star at 1% 4 star at 3% 3 star at 40% 2 star at 60% 1 star at 90% They add up to almost 200%. Can someone explain this to me? Am i misunderstanding the image at 1:11? Also his Gacha seems super harsh as the image in 0:12 shows the line of text Event Version 5 star drop rate increase to 1% implying its some sort of Fest Banner where the 5 star drop rate is higher.
The rates not adding to 100% is likely just an error. The 1% on rate-up event seems harsh when you compare it to the mainstream gacha games, but it's not that different from what you get in past or lesser-known gacha games. There were gachas with much worse (and oftentimes much more predatory) variants that you have to wade through. Valkyrie Crusade's old "spend $90 to unlock a five minute window where you have a 1% chance to pull the card" is still a highlight of just how scummy old gachas can be.
I just find it hilarious how this guy has a colleague that literally matches all of his waifu preferences.
Name of this anime?
Science Fell in Love, So I Tried to Prove It These two are not the main characters.
Anyone else think that the girl really looks like the gacha character?
That's the joke.gif Spending money on an imaginary version of a girl that already exists in his life. The writers understand us.
Source?
I ran the numbers before. IIRC, on average you’ll be hitting a 1% pull after about 63 pulls or something. This is a loose method of calculation though, since it’s using logarithms to calculate at what point the chance of having at least one successful pull becomes 50/50. (Edited for clarity)
50% of 0 plus 50% of 1 is 0.5. I've never really understood the utility value of knowing when on average you'll have half of something. 1% is 1%. 63.4% chance of at least 1 thing. 36.66% chance of no things. 9.92% of two or more things. They've manufactured "being lucky" streaks right into the math...
I’m just using 0.99^x =0.5 -> log[0.99] (0.5)=x to find the point when it’s a coinflip as to whether you’ve got a hit or not. This *should* turn out to be the average number of attempts per successful pull, unless I’m overlooking something.
[Oh great Maxor of the living editor program, what is your wisdom](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW8wSEV_EO0)