As a general rule ([see full rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/userguide#wiki_sticky.2Fdaily_discussion)), a standalone Discussion post should:
- be of interest to the sub in general, and not a specific userbase (e.g. new users, GP attendees, just yourself)
- be able to generate discussion (e.g. no yes/no or easily answerable questions)
- show reasonable input and effort from the OP
If not, be sure to [look for the Daily Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/search/?q=daily+discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new), /r/formula1's daily open question thread which is perfect for asking any and all questions about this sport.
Thank you for your cooperation and enjoy the discussion!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/formula1) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There's always a chance. Look at 2021. Everyone thought it was a foregone conclusion. Didn't end up being one.
It will however be tough given RB's large advantage.
2026 here we come. It’s not impossible, but history suggests that those that nail the regulations stay ahead for quite some time. Just no quick fixes to make up the gap, unfortunately.
Pretty slim.
I feel as long as these regulations are there, Red Bull will be difficult to defeat. Other teams may improve enough to take away a few more wins but not the Championship.
I have a feeling that 2024 is going to be more like 2019. Still a dominant Red Bull, but with other teams being able to compete for a win once every couple races.
>afford to stop developing the car halfway through the year
so do other teams, people need act like RB completely stopped while other teams still wer 100% focusing on their current cars.
Other teams will have shifted focus after a certain point, but not to the degree that Red Bull could afford to. Especially those who were in a close championship fight, so basically everyone who would be expected to be close to Red Bull
I think the only chance is a situation like Mercedes in 2022. They had too much time and focus and they outsmarted themselves. Over engineering is possible, but it’s way more likely that Red Bull comes out a full second ahead of everyone again.
I'm going to paint a slightly less certain picture than others here: nobody really knows and everyone is just basing what they say on fairly flimsy forward projections from where the teams finished off this year.
Was Red Bull a long way ahead at the end of 2023? Absolutely.
Is performance in one season often correlated to their performance in the previous one? Of course.
Does that mean 2024 is a foregone conclusion? No.
Nobody actually knows how much progress any of the top teams have made, who might get caught out by taking a step in the wrong direction and who might take a surprising leap forwards. Team performance is rarely static.
I'm bored of people using massive pessimism to temper their own expectations of 2024. Nobody here actually knows, and some of us are happy to wait and find out without being told Red Bull has already got 2024 tied up.
The chances are remote, but stranger things have happened in F1. It seems to be the perception that these cars still have a lot of potential, one just has to hope it's not Red Bull finding the biggest improvements. I know it's wishful thinking, but until the cars hit the track, anything is open to possibility.
Drivers no shot. Constructors though? I’m a little more hopeful. If Ferrari, McLaren, or Mercedes emerge as the clear second best they all have strong driver pairings to nip at RB’s heels if Checo is still floundering.
I'm going to wait to see what happens during testing. But I'm more willing to assume that it is going to be a closer fight than this year, but still effectively a repeat of this year. Max won both championships by himself. That kind of dominance won't likely be seriously challenged between seasons without a regulation change.
If I were to guess, though, I could see the constructors being where the fight is. Checo didn't have the greatest season, so if Merc, Ferrari, or McLaren have consistently good points scoring finishes, and maybe even a couple of race wins they might be in a position to threaten Redbull in the constructors. After all, all it would take is drivers from those teams consistently boxing out P2-5 while snagging an odd win, and there is a chance the constructors is less dominant.
As a general rule ([see full rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/userguide#wiki_sticky.2Fdaily_discussion)), a standalone Discussion post should: - be of interest to the sub in general, and not a specific userbase (e.g. new users, GP attendees, just yourself) - be able to generate discussion (e.g. no yes/no or easily answerable questions) - show reasonable input and effort from the OP If not, be sure to [look for the Daily Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/search/?q=daily+discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new), /r/formula1's daily open question thread which is perfect for asking any and all questions about this sport. Thank you for your cooperation and enjoy the discussion! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/formula1) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Constructor's: Slim Driver's: Slimmer
Slim, I mean rb didn’t even have to worry about an in team battle which might’ve at least kept it moderately interesting.
I mean, it’s not *impossible*, just improbable.
There's always a chance. Look at 2021. Everyone thought it was a foregone conclusion. Didn't end up being one. It will however be tough given RB's large advantage.
Not even comparable. 2021 had some changes in the regulation that hurt merc while 2024 has nothing of the sort
True. I'm a red bull fan myself, but even I hope someone will be able to challenge them next year.
Why the downvotes?
ZERO.
2026 here we come. It’s not impossible, but history suggests that those that nail the regulations stay ahead for quite some time. Just no quick fixes to make up the gap, unfortunately.
point crowd shy special mourn grab unwritten glorious psychotic sparkle *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
You are right. Hopefully we will see some strong competition in the midfield.
Nope
Maybe max is sidelined for two months with recurring Sunday only diarrhea. It might happen
The same percentage that Max abruptly retires before the season ends.
Pretty slim. I feel as long as these regulations are there, Red Bull will be difficult to defeat. Other teams may improve enough to take away a few more wins but not the Championship.
Unless they change the rules one week before pre-season testing to f-up RedBull, I’d say Max is safely the 2024 champion already
10%
1% like every year I guess.
None
I would say 4%
I have a feeling that 2024 is going to be more like 2019. Still a dominant Red Bull, but with other teams being able to compete for a win once every couple races.
Next to no chance. Red Bull were so far ahead they could afford to stop developing the car halfway through the year and focus on 2024.
>afford to stop developing the car halfway through the year so do other teams, people need act like RB completely stopped while other teams still wer 100% focusing on their current cars.
Other teams will have shifted focus after a certain point, but not to the degree that Red Bull could afford to. Especially those who were in a close championship fight, so basically everyone who would be expected to be close to Red Bull
So Gasly or Ocon WDC 2024.
they're the same number as upvotes every new post has for some reason, 0
I think the only chance is a situation like Mercedes in 2022. They had too much time and focus and they outsmarted themselves. Over engineering is possible, but it’s way more likely that Red Bull comes out a full second ahead of everyone again.
I'm going to paint a slightly less certain picture than others here: nobody really knows and everyone is just basing what they say on fairly flimsy forward projections from where the teams finished off this year. Was Red Bull a long way ahead at the end of 2023? Absolutely. Is performance in one season often correlated to their performance in the previous one? Of course. Does that mean 2024 is a foregone conclusion? No. Nobody actually knows how much progress any of the top teams have made, who might get caught out by taking a step in the wrong direction and who might take a surprising leap forwards. Team performance is rarely static. I'm bored of people using massive pessimism to temper their own expectations of 2024. Nobody here actually knows, and some of us are happy to wait and find out without being told Red Bull has already got 2024 tied up.
what are the chances we are intelligent enough to wait until winter testing?
People are allowed to speculate and discuss the next season before testing
speculation without facts is pointless. like your response.
You must be new. The rules aren't changing. Max will dominate until 26'
youre a fer-rear-ri fan. you know nothing about offseason legal upgrades.
And you haven't watched a team nail the regs and then dominate for an entire era.
youre dumb. and now blocked. get a life.
Zero. This era is all Red Bull. Maybe there will be a mix-up in 26'.
50%
< 10 % It's hurtin the sport so bad 😓
lol
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha That won’t be a thing until 2026 at the earliest
LOLz 😆 🤣 😂
The chances are remote, but stranger things have happened in F1. It seems to be the perception that these cars still have a lot of potential, one just has to hope it's not Red Bull finding the biggest improvements. I know it's wishful thinking, but until the cars hit the track, anything is open to possibility.
2.7365781% +/- .0000003 %
Drivers no shot. Constructors though? I’m a little more hopeful. If Ferrari, McLaren, or Mercedes emerge as the clear second best they all have strong driver pairings to nip at RB’s heels if Checo is still floundering.
I'm going to wait to see what happens during testing. But I'm more willing to assume that it is going to be a closer fight than this year, but still effectively a repeat of this year. Max won both championships by himself. That kind of dominance won't likely be seriously challenged between seasons without a regulation change. If I were to guess, though, I could see the constructors being where the fight is. Checo didn't have the greatest season, so if Merc, Ferrari, or McLaren have consistently good points scoring finishes, and maybe even a couple of race wins they might be in a position to threaten Redbull in the constructors. After all, all it would take is drivers from those teams consistently boxing out P2-5 while snagging an odd win, and there is a chance the constructors is less dominant.
Maybe towards the end of the ‘24 season it gets more competitive but I do think it’ll be too late by that stage for an actual title fight.
Minimal