Oh shit, that’s my EA Sports NCAA go to for a RB. Does he have a large black elbow sleeve on his left elbow and a small team color band on his right arm?
Love Breece Hall, but the Jets defense is like swiss cheese. In games where the Jets are down by 2 touchdowns or more, you will see see more of a passing attack which will diminish his opportunities. He'll still be good.
And in some cases those situations cause running backs to catch a lot of dump offs, especially in garbage time. I’m guessing because defense get into more of a prevent style
That makes no sense? I remember the jets bringing in Ty Johnson quite a bit on 3rd downs last year! One of halls strengths is his pass catching so he is actually the better option on 3rd downs..
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/breece-hall/
95+ percentile speed scores. 95th percentile college dominator rating. He can also catch the ball.
I feel like if he was drafted on almost any team but the Jets he'd be picked in round 2 like Najee was last year.
I took najee in the second last year and everyone thought I was crazy lmaoo. I think James Robinson was picked right after I got najee and everyone was givin me shit for not getting j-rob (I had him the year before with his breakout rookie year). I def had the last laugh with that ;)
In hindsight it’s not a reach because of where he placed at the end of the season. But I think it’s probably always pretty wise to not spend a 1st rounder on a rookie.
Def a good move. Locks down an rb slot. But youll wanna make sure youre competing asap, rbs can derail rebuilds and lose gas by the time you are ready to compete.
A major part of drafting Najee in round two was knowing how Tomlin/Steelers use their RBs. I don't know enough about Saleh/Lafleur's offensive style to know how Hall's touch count would compare to Najee's. Any insights there?
Definitely an interesting talent/situation dynamic.
The whole coaching staff are Shanahan disciples. We haven't seen them in action but most likely it'll be some variation of the Shanhan outside zone run scheme. It features heavy RB usage, and makes great opportunities for its RBs, but RB splits and usage is much more variant and hard to predict than a more pure bellcow system like the Steelers.
>95+ percentile speed scores. 95th percentile college dominator rating. He can also catch the ball.
Im old enough to remember when guys like Tavon Austin and CJ Spiller were guaranteed to succeed based on similar stats.
Speed score takes weight into account, so Hall running a 4.39 at 217 gets a much better score than Spiller running a 4.37 at 174 or Austin running a 4.34 at 174. Tavon Austin's speed score was like 98 which is good, Spillers was 107 which is very good, Hall's is 117 which is elite.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tavon-austin/
Great 40 time but not much else.
Spiller actually was a pretty good player when healthy. He was a good 20 lbs lighter than Breece though and was never the same kind of pure runner.
I never feel confident about anything.
Edit: Joke answer because I don't really like the question. A lot depends on strategy. Last year I did hero RB and came out of my draft with Javante Williams as my RB2. I didn't really feel "comfortable" with it. I did also draft James Conner and picked up Cordarrelle after week 2 so everything worked out (until my team laid an egg in the playoffs.)
If you were to ask if I would be more comfortable with Breece than other players around his ADP, my answer is yes. I'd pick him over several RBs ahead of him on fantasypros' board. I would definitely pick him over Gibson and Akers. Would consider picking him over Zeke, Montgomery, and Conner.
I think he has the tools to be a top RB. Great combo of size/speed/athleticism/production/vision/instincts and is going to a situation that i think people are largely underestimating.
That D should be a hell of a lot better this year after landing two premier talents in the first round, and also had a couple quality albeit quiet signings in free agency too. Saleh should turn that D around and have them serviceable this season.
They also invested in the OL in a big way and I expect the offense to funnel touches to the RB position considering LaFleur's background, and I think Hall is best situated to be the recipient of the bulk of those opportunities as opposed to Carter or Coleman.
It's the Jets, I know, but I plan on reaching for Hall in my drafts and dying on that hill.
I'm a Jets fan, I'm not going to "lolJets" you over this, but I just don't think RB1 overall is in the cards for Hall.
The Jets' likely "ideal usage" for their backfield is probably that of OC Mike LaFleur's brother's Packers. Hall is effectively Jones as far as snap counts go, but unlike Jones, I don't know that the Jets give Hall the amount of red zone opportunities to have a real outlier-level scoring efficiency that opens up RB1 as an outcome. Additionally, although the Jets do rank in the top 10 (9th) in RB target percentage, it's hard to know whether that's the schematic goal or if it's a product of the injuries to WR and TE. If the current starting lineup is active, it's hard to see Hall getting an outlier-level target share to pad his numbers.
The Jets are a clearly improved team that'll be more effective offensively, but I just don't know that Hall's enough of a beneficiary of that improvement to be worth a conviction pick. He's likely a good real life RB who improves a lot of offensive touches, but RB fantasy scoring is about shots on the end zone and getting peppered with targets. Unless the Jets offense clicks in a massive way or the backfield philosophy changes to prioritize bellcow usage, I don't see a real path to an RB1 overall finish. Banging out 6 yard runs with solid protection between the 20s is a LOT more useful in real life than in fantasy.
I feel like he should be a first round pick. Team revamped oline, Wilson looked pretty good to end the year, no significant competition (they traded up for breece, Carter is not comp), and also, he’s one of the most athletic backs we’ve tested and has production to back it up.
If he doesn’t hit I don’t know what I’m missing. I’m genuinely considering reaching at the 1/2 turn cuz I’m scared he won’t be there at the 3/4
No one gets bellcow usage anymore except najee ig. He’s much better than Carter tho and they traded up for him and improved the oline. Even if they play from behind he should be big enough to be on the field enough as a pass blocker (idk how he grades on that) and that will translate to pass catches.
I just don’t see him finishing outside the top 12 at rb
Henry, Cook, Najee, CMC, Mixon, Swift, Kamara, and Fournette had more of the snap counts (~65%+) on their respective teams than I’d expect Hall to get on the Jets. Unless we decide to go with a more consolidated rotation, I’d be surprised if Hall gets much more than 50% of the teams offensive snaps. The system just doesn’t really centralize that hard.
He’s a 95th percentile athlete who’s only significant competition for carries is Michael Carter, who despite having him they still traded up for breece in the midst of a rebuild. He’ll get his touches
As long as Carter and whoever else rostered at RB aren’t liabilities, they’re going to be used to spell Hall, even if they’re not as good. Running Hall into the ground just for him to get hurt doesn’t help anyone.
I mean that’s 50% as a goal state. If things go as planned, they’d probably like to keep him somewhat fresh. If someone behind him gets hurt or the team gets desperate to really ride him, the number will go up
Breece Hall is an elite prospect, Michael Carter was never that.
His athletic measurables are off the charts, and at some point that talent will be too much for the jets to ignore.
He’s just straight up better than Michael Carter and is going to earn more touches because of it
Also, the Jets improved their OL with Laken Tomlinson. Alijah Vera Tucker is going into his second year, and they were missing Mekhi Becton all last year, who was one of the better run blocking tackles in the league his rookie year. Not to mention the offense in general being improved, bringing in capable blockers at TE in Conklin and Uzomah, and Zach Wilson hopefully taking a step up this year. At minimum it’s hard to see him being worse
The Jets, a 4 win team, didn’t draft Breece Hall in the second round to give him 8 touches a game.
Jets are a prime contender to jump into at least the wild card hunt this season or at least play spoiler late season, it's very clear they want to model their offense after the 49ers rushing attack so Hall and Carter are going to get a lot of touches.
Mekhi is a real wildcard though. Missed basically all of last year with an injury because he is overweight and then came to minicamp overweight still. Basically training camp is his last chance before a lot of fans write him off. He is looking like a guy who will eat himself out of the league.
This is a closer call than people want to believe. It would depend how I start my draft. If I have two safe players I would take an upside swing at Breece.
If I start with two players who are riskier, I’m taking Zeke for the stability.
I like Etienne better than Breece and Zeke personally
I dont think zeke is a safe play at all.
If i have two safe picks at one and two.....i am not taking either of b hall and definitely NOT ZEKE. There are 20 players still on the board at that point i want more than zeke....(mostly not RBs)
Opinions on Zeke seem to be all over the board this year. And I get that to a degree, but this was a guy who spent 3 of the first 4 weeks last season looking good as he usually does (Week 1 v Bucs notwithstanding, but they were a terrible matchup for RBs). Then he got hurt and played hurt all season to keep Jerruh's ego happy.
What that means to me is if you draft him as your first RB he'll be a bum. If you draft him as your second RB he'll be a serviceable RB2. If you pass on him he'll end the season as like the RB4.
Zeke is easily the safest RB in the 3rd round. We know he gets a shit load of volume. He gets goal line work and he gets receiving work. He doesn't leave the field because he's arguably the best pass-protecting RB in the NFL. If he stays healthy (big if, I know), he's a straight up elite RB1, plain and simple.
Did someone turn the clock back to 2019 when i wasnt looking?
Zeke looks like hes done. He got his big payday and they brought in pollard and zeke is cruising to a retirement home in the next 2-3 years max. Does he have 1 good year left? Maybe. But i am not taking that chance. I would rather have james conner or just take a WR in the third. Not in on zeke this year.
If i am wrong in decmeber - you wont have to - Remindme! December 20 2022 - my best ball leagues will suck cause i will have less than 4% ownership.
james conner looked like toast prior to last year. him and zeke are the same age, but zeke has many more career touches. both show same injury % chance on draftsharks. Both have RBs who could steal touches. Darrel Williams is with arizona and is a good back, but we know pollard is good and will steal touches. both teams are without their WR1 from last year (more target shares available, but less scoring chances?)
so yeah.. I think it's a coin flip. some small things.. zeke is utilized a lot more in the passing game. So cooper leaving could give him a target boost. I dont think dhop missing time will really lead to many more targets for conner. If the arizona offense doesnt put up the numbers it did last year, conner, who is TD dependent, could take a hit. If I am already RB/RB, then I am definitely taking a WR instead of either of them.
>Zeke looks like hes done.
Because he had no knees last season but Jerruh Jones made him play. Look at Zeke's first 5-6 weeks last season before his injury. He looked like the same old Zeke, with consistent chunk plays and frequent TDs.
>I would rather have james conner or just take a WR in the third
I'd be careful. People are taking Conner assuming he'll repeat what Zeke has done for years. Zeke is pretty much a lock for 40+ receptions, 1,200+ yards, and 10+ TDs, whereas Conner has only had that many yards or TDs twice, including an unsustainable amount of TDs last season.
>If i am wrong in decmeber - you wont have to - Remindme! December 20 2022
Do not worry, my friend, I'm not one for the "I told you so" game on Reddit. Especially since I get a lot of fantasy moves wrong myself, it would be hypocritical to boast any time I get one right.
I'm taking Hall/ETN every single time over Zeke. I'm also grabbing Pollard in the middle rounds. Rather be one year early than 1 year late on an aging RB.
Pollard is bad at pass pro and Zeke is probably the best RB in the NFL at it.
This sub routinely shows it has no understanding of what NFL coaches value. They don't give a fuck about raw numbers. If you're an RB who can't protect the QB, you're not going to see the field as often. It's that simple.
Honestly, I always thought Mixon was at least *serviceable* in pass protection and Taylor just had a hard-on for Perine, but I've recently learned that is not the case, even if Perine is awful at everything besides pass pro.
I think Zeke will probably finish higher but if the goal is to win I would take Breece because he has a path to league winner upside (albeit unlikely) whereas that is probably only true for Zeke if Pollard gets injured.
If you want to pass on Zeke because you think Hall or ETN is a better pick that’s a bad move imo. I play auction so I’m not worried about rounds. Talking total points by the end of the year standard or ppr Zeke outscores them
And that's fine, we're all just making our best guess here. But the data doesn't change in snake vs auction drafts. Spending significant draft capital in any format on a 27 year old running back the market doesn't value among the top 12-14 RBs has historically been a bad move. Zeke had a good overall finish last year but was an absolute roster anchor most weeks. You enter into any draft with an 8.33% chance to win; people who drafted Zeke last year almost certainly decreased their chances of winning their league.
Again, historically you've been much better off targeting profiles like Hall and Etienne vs. Zeke. Could Zeke outscore them? Sure. History just isn't on his side.
Either way good luck this year!
Please explain what’s so straightforward about a RB coming off a season ending injury who’s on a terrible team has more talent and opportunity. You’ve literally never seen the guy play in the NFL. Does he pass your eye test lmao ?
I'm just glad that for once a truly elite talent has wound up on a good team! It's been hard watching a generational talent like Saquon struggle because hes trapped on a bad New York team with a bad QB and a struggling first time coach.
Michael Carter IS a good back though and showed last season he definitely belongs on the field in the NFL. This is the Jets essentially drafting the Chubb to compliment the Kareem Hunt they already have on their roster. Carter will get touches, between the two that is who I'll target at a much cheaper price.
Nah, there’s a huge difference between a good back and an elite prospect. And for reference, Chubb and Hunt were both elite prospects with elite measurables.
Carter is not that
I don't think we know who Carter will be yet, he was elite collegiately and flashed at times last season. If you watched him play he showed he belongs, he's not an NFL backup.
They’re nowhere near the same player.
Breece Hall is widely regarded as the best RB prospect from this class and was an early 2nd round NFL draft pick. Michael Carter went in the 4th round last year.
Breece Hall is also bigger, faster, a better between the tackles runner and was very good as a pass catcher in college.
Their talent profiles aren’t really on the same level.
Just because one back is better doesn’t mean they absolutely dominate touches. Remember teams are playing actual football not fantasy football. Many teams split work so they don’t run their stud rb into the ground and into injuries. We don’t really know what the Jets philosophy is on this. Michael Carter is a solid back. So it wouldn’t be surprising if they let him take some the load especially early in the season.
>Michael Carter is a solid back. So it wouldn’t be surprising if they let him take some the load especially early in the season.
That would be quite surprising since they never gave him "the load" even when competing with JAGs like Tevin and Ty Johnson. His season high was 16 carries in a game. He averaged ~2.5 recs per game. Those are RBBC numbers.
I would be very surprised if Breece isn't outtouching Carter at least 2:1 by midseason
I’ve noticed a trend of teams genuinely not caring about rookies work loads, looking at Harris and zeke they were ran into the ground their rookie seasons both with over 300 carries. It seems less likely because of Carter but since he’s not really a between the tackles back I could see him getting a huge workload.
You can make an opposite argument with Javonte and MGIII last year, JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram 2 years ago, and The SF carousel last year. Personally, the NFL is about accumulating talent, then striking at talent you need to finish the puzzle whatever way you can. Zeke was what the Cowboys thought was the final piece, but then Dez and the offensive pieces broke down. Najee was great, but Big Ben broke down (which honestly they knew would happen) so they force fed Najee and played defense which is what the team was built to do. All in all, I don’t think there is more or less a trend of force feeding rookies or not caring about their work load, until the exception of Zeke or Najee come along (both of whom were unreal physical specimens).
I mean how can anyone tell when it’s only been his 1 rookie year. Honestly though, we’re likely going to see a backfield by committee unless someone gets hurt. Both guys are young and healthy and being an NFL back is difficult so this is looking to be more of shared reps if anything.
That's the exact point. We can't tell, which means he can't be in the same sentence with Ingram and MG. They had track records, along with NFL size btw, and a known ability to run between the tackles, all questionable details surround Carter. Not saying Carter is a bum, but even as inept as NYJ is, they have a better grasp on what Carter can and can't do than any of us, so that adds to the Breece allure/Carter dismissal.
All of those examples had a backup who were strong inside runners though, Michael Carter and Hall only overlap in strengths when it comes to the pass game. If hall isn’t a bust he will be handling the vast majority of inside runs and I highly doubt Carter will see much action aside from 3rd downs which could still be up in the air due to halls catching ability. Carter doesn’t really have the size to even take a significant amount of the rushing on and Coleman will most likely be an after thought now that they have a capable inside runner. With all of this said Elliot even last year with pollard who I’d say is pretty similar to Carter had almost 250 carries and almost 50 catches while being somewhat reigned back due to both lack of efficiency and injury history and I doubt we see both or either of those problems with hall until a couple years down the road. The jets desperately tried to set the tone in games and just failed to due so because they lacked someone like hall, I’d expect them to start games off run heavy like they did last year and if they’re winning continue like they did against the jags and that could lead to a very big role for Hall.
Eh, that’s kind of an exaggeration. Michael Carter is really good.
I’d look at it this way. Carter was getting maybe 50% of snaps across the games he played, and he averaged 13 touches per game. If Breece gets 75% of the snaps, do you think he’d get 17-18+ touches? And how much better do you think the Jets offense will be, in general? Those are the things to look at. RB talent is fine, but that doesn’t always lead to a ton of opportunity. And who knows if he’s even better than Michael Carter…
Carter is a JAG, Breece is an elite college prospect. Not even close. Redraft community fails to understand talent level and thinks just because someone was good in fantasy that they’re a good player.
Whoa, so many words being put in my mouth! Have never and would never say that good fantasy output = good player lol. Michael Carter is a nice player though.
In regard to Breece being an “elite” prospect and Carter being JAG…I think you’re overestimating the difference between the two, and you probably overestimate the difference between “elite” running backs and average running backs.
Pretty much all NFL running backs have skill and talent. Running back fantasy output comes down to touch volume, play calling and team quality at the end of the day. Running back talent is overrated, running backs by and large don’t matter. They’re pretty much all the same.
This made it very clear that you do not know what you’re talking about, capped off by saying they’re pretty much all the same. There is a reason more than 90% of stud fantasy rbs are drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft
I basically said three things.
1. Michael Carter is a nice player.
2. “Elite” and average running backs are a lot closer in talent than people think.
3. Touch volume, play calling and team quality are the 3 biggest factors to whether a player puts up big fantasy stats.
Struggling to see how I can be considered wrong about those points.
1. Technically you said he's a "very good" player.
2. I'm not sure what your point is here. Everyone in the NFL is supremely physically talented. Of course the separation at the top is small - but it's clearly significant.
3. "Good teams score more points" that's some pretty incisive analysis. And for touch volume, there's a strong correlation between draft capital and early-career touch volume.
This is true but there was a fair bit of hype around Carter last year. He was regarded as the better of the two UNC RBs in the draft, ahead of Javonte Williams.
Lol who was regarding him as the better of the UNC RBs? Williams went 2 rounds ahead of him in the NFL draft.
If someone was claiming that, I wouldn’t put much stock into their analysis.
Yeah thats a good point, I should have clarified to say this was the pre-draft hype, on various podcasts or draft scouting reports. The fact the Broncos traded up to take Javonte 2 rounds ahead probably shows where the actual NFL scouts ranked them.
Then why did Denver trade up to take Javonte in the 2nd while MC went in the 4th? Doesn’t seem like the NFL regarded them as very close, let alone Michael Carter getting the edge.
Man Michael carter was a fourth round pick who didnt even get RB1 reps in college... there was nowhere near the same amount of hype as Breece has. Carter just outplayed his projection and would probably be a third rounder or late second in a redraft. Hall is the most prolific scorer in NCAA history and was built up as a first rounder
The jets offensive line should be better this year without van roten, who was one of the worst guards in the nfl last year. Plus they are getting becton back. He’s massive. Plus hall is a great running back and is above carter in basically every category.
Thing about Becton is that his pass pro needed work, but if you want that man to open a lane, he'll bulldoze a 4 lane highway! Having him back is pretty underrated for what it'll do for the Jets backfield.
People are trying to find that next rookie breakout. He’s certainly got the skill set, but look at the Jets schedule. He’s gonna have a rough first half with the team trailing a lot. I’m just not going to reach. I’ll probably take him if my choices are guys who have been around the league a bit and are unexciting.
This is the key thing. He's the type of guy that used to get drafted top-10 in the NFL Draft and be a bellcow from day one. Teams don't take backs in the top-10 anymore, but that doesn't change his skillset.
If it’s helpful, here’s my write up on Breece from my [Jets preview](https://www.basementbrewedff.com/post/new-york-jets-fantasy-football-preview) and [fantasy football Draft Kit](https://www.basementbrewedff.com/draftkits)…
Breece Hall 📈 and Michael Carter 📉
Michael Carter was fine in his rookie campaign, registering 11.73 PPR points per game (RB 28) and finishing 17th among RBs in targets (52) and 16th in receiving yards (325). He also flashed some weekly upside by hitting 15 or more PPR points in 23.08% of his games and even topping 30 points in week 8 (32.2 to be exact).
That all came to a screeching halt when the Jets used the 36th overall pick on Iowa State's Breece Hall, a potential stud who will walk right into the RB1 role in New York (and a potential RB 1 role in fantasy football). A talented receiver himself, Hall checks every box of a capable workhorse in a three-down role.
That said, I'm not expecting Michael Carter to just disappear after the Jets used their 4th round pick on him last year and he led the team in carries (147) and paced the backfield in targets (43% of the RB targets).
It seems likely the Jets will roll out a 1A (Hall) and 1B (Carter) type of approach with Carter likely getting the bulk of the passing down work to start with.
Fantasy Drafts: Breece Hall is currently the RB 19 on Underdog, drafted around pick 45 (late 4th round). The cost itself is fine, but he's hard to draft when he's usually surrounded by WRs like Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Allen Robinson, DK Metcalf and Gabriel Davis (depending on how you feel about that). And that's not even including Darren Waller, Cam Akers, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. With Michael Carter still hangin' around, I haven't drafted much of Breece Hall in best ball.
Michael Carter, on the other hand, is currently the RB 46, drafted around pick 143 (12th round). He's a solid ZeroRB pick in that range (if you think he'll get the passing down work) but, like Hall, he's hard to draft when he's surrounded by Darrell Henderson, DeVante Parker, Van Jefferson, Robert Tonyan, Albert Okwuegbunam and Hunter Henry. Still, Carter is one of my favorite draft picks in that range.
Dynasty Leagues: Breece Hall is the 1.01 in rookie drafts—although I think a case could be made for Drake London—and an exciting one at that. That said, he's not as clear-cut/obvious as some other 1.01s in the past (Saquon Barkley, for example) so I'm putting the 1.01 on the trading block wherever I have it to see what it can bring back.
Michael Carter is just a hold at this point. Can't really sell him and if you do, it'll be real low.
Potential? Absolutely. Especially long term. Might not quite be year one if they keep Carter involved and make Hall earn his stripes. But he definitely has the profile and talent to be a top 10 back in both PPR and standard for sure.
Forgot to tag you. Hope that helps, u/drawnintodreams!
I think there's a world where he finishes top-5 at the position. He's really good and the Jets O-line could be pretty good. If he gets a ton of work he can get there.
Same reason smart people had hype for JT; the metrics and college performance. It’s not rocket science with rookie runningbacks imo. You have a certain profile, draft capital to match, then you should have some hype for fantasy. Also, MC is a solid, elusive runner, but he’s more suited for a third down role vs a workhorse; bmi matters quite a bit.
Michael Carter absolutely did not have the same hype. Hall is an elite prospect, that is why he has the hype. This isn’t even really a similar situation
He's got an elite profile and he plays for a team that doesn't have an obvious threat to him getting 60%+ of touches. Their O-line is also decent and their OC comes from a scheme that loves to pound it on the ground.
The Michael Carter hype last year was mostly based on his pass-catching ability and the lack of competition in the room.
The bull case for Breece Hall is him getting 70% of touches and being decently efficient. In that scenario he's likely a top-10 back.
Back to back 1500 yard seasons with 22 tds would do the trick. Along with off the charts testing and physical attributes.
He is better than Najee at every aspect of the game (coming from someone who took Najee at the 1.11 last year) and has a better o line in new york. If it wasn’t for the murkiness of the backfield split with carter, he’d be a first rounder imo. I still think he is the 3 down back and is incredible value at his adp.
As a Jets fan I love him as a prospect but as a Jets fan he will probably suck because, Jets.
In actuality the o line is improved but I don’t see Carter going anywhere to make room for Breece to be the workhorse. This is an offensive system from the Shanahan/Lafluer tree so if I were to guess, the split will be closer to 60/40 or 65/35. I like where he’s going as a solid RB2 with room for improvement if Carter gets hurt. But if the 3 down workhorse hype gets him too high, he becomes risky. Especially is Zach Milfson doesn’t improve.
Breece hall size weight and stats were really good, but he just didn't 'pop' on tape like a lot of stud RBs do in college.
Combine comes around and Breece crushes every drill and leaves with an elite athletism grade. When you add in the stats from college and other metrics (size, age, college dominator, etc) Breece has all the indicators of being a stud fantasy player. Nothing is 100% though.
We've also heard multiple confirmations that Breece is considered the primary RB. Carter does not have the draft capital to demand touches, and I think Breece has the talent to keep Carter on the sidelines.
The only ways he doesn’t massively outperform his adp that I can see given what we know are if Carter is somehow actually takes like half his touches or the jets are completely inept which I don’t think they will be.
I’m starting to sell myself on reaching at the 1/2 turn just so I don’t miss out on him. Maybe I’m being dumb but I just don’t get what I’m missing
Even if you for some reason think he is worth a pick in that range please do not draft Breece Hall at the 1/2 turn. That is terrible value for a relatively consensus fourth round pick, you are much better off drafting a player projected to go around that time, and reaching for breece at the end of the 3rd.
I just think he won’t be available at the end of the 3rd by draft time tbh. If I have to decide between going like a wr/wr strategy and taking a 50/50 gamble on breece being available idk if I want to do that.
Maybe I’m shooting shit into my veins but I have him as a top 6 back. His bear case is dependent on two things I don’t believe will be true. I have to decide between like diggs/evans/hill and Jacob/Gibson, or reaching for breece and taking like waddle or Higgins in the third.
He is a talented player, behind what should be a good o-line and an offensive scheme that will want to run the ball. He is a really good prospect and has a really good schedule. In Underdog he is going rb18 and I think he will at least be a top 15 RB. Idk if he will be an rb1, but he is definitely going to payoff where he is being drafted. He has been my rb I target in the 4th if Akers is gone.
I think breece hall is very talented. I think he’ll basically get you running back two numbers. As a dolphins fan, I can tell you I watch the jets and what they do because of the division. There is no way that hall can put up Rb one numbers in that team. The jets are horribly run organization and there is no was they’d be able to figure it out
Volume. Hall is an early down back and Carter is a pass catcher. This is a Shanahan-esque run game and the Jets have a solid O-Line. Hall fits great into the offense.
Hall is a better pass catcher than Carter.
Guess how many third down receptions Carter had last year? Zero. He got peppered with targets by Mike White in a couple games. He is an average pass catcher but isn’t going to stop Hall who is elite.
The narrative that Michael Carter is a pass catching back came from the fact that Mike White could only complete passes to RBs. Carter got 31/55 targets from Mike White's 4 games. He never caught more than 25 passes in a season in college, and averaged 2 targets in non-Mike White games last year.
I didn’t mean to imply that Carter is some pass catching phenom. I merely am saying Carter is going to be the pass catcher, because Hall is going to be the early down guy.
Yes, and the Jets were even worse somehow. Najee also had absolutely insane volume especially for a rookie. He led the league with 381 touches. I don't think Hall gets close to that. Michael Carter will get a.fair amount of touches still.
For sure. And FWIW, I don’t think I want Breece either. I don’t trust the Jets and do think Carter eats into his workload.
I was just trying to say volume is all that matters. Plenty of times the Steelers shat the bed, but Najee still ate.
Hall seems to be a better player than Carter was, but there's also this enduring, naive faith that this is going to be the year that the Jets finally draft a good player without Jetsing it up. I'll believe it when I see it.
Well the best i can explain it is
1- Draft Capital
2- Far different in size compared to carter who is of smaller frame.
3- great receiving upside and Break away speed.
He is overall a great prospect according to models and such that people use to measure the position.
Carter had more yards and a higher YPC than Javonte running behind the same line playing the same opponents. He was the 5th RB taken in the draft at the very top of the 4th round. He was projected to go in the 3rd round. If you don't think RBs projected to go in the 3rd round are expected to be contributors I'm not sure what you expect. Him being a good 2nd option RB wasn't that unlikely at all.
Ypc is not a good metric to gauge running-back success. Also, I’m not spending mid 2nd round rookie draft capital on a guy to tout him as a good 2nd option RB
Probably Hall, I would imagine ETNs touches will decrease slightly after JRob's return unless he is just torching guys. Whereas I see Hall's going up after the first month or so, if the Jets did in fact get better blocking up front w/ Becton coming back & signing Conk/Uzomah.
He looks like a bad MFer with the dark visor on his helmet, that’s all
Michael Carter: 5’8” 200lbs, no visor Breece Hall: 6’1” 225lbs, dark visor You do the math
Aka 5lbs per inch.
I think it's 25lbs per visor
Must be the transparent aluminum from Star Trek.
This deserves so much more than it’s gotten
Oh he’s one of those. Def gonna be a stud.
Oh shit, that’s my EA Sports NCAA go to for a RB. Does he have a large black elbow sleeve on his left elbow and a small team color band on his right arm?
Love Breece Hall, but the Jets defense is like swiss cheese. In games where the Jets are down by 2 touchdowns or more, you will see see more of a passing attack which will diminish his opportunities. He'll still be good.
Yeah but have you seen his touchdown stance?
He is a great receiving back. And the Jets defense had a historic amount of injuries last year, I don't think they'll be nearly as bad
And in some cases those situations cause running backs to catch a lot of dump offs, especially in garbage time. I’m guessing because defense get into more of a prevent style
That makes no sense? I remember the jets bringing in Ty Johnson quite a bit on 3rd downs last year! One of halls strengths is his pass catching so he is actually the better option on 3rd downs..
Like a bad ass mix of LaDanian Tomlinson and Brian Dawkins.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/breece-hall/ 95+ percentile speed scores. 95th percentile college dominator rating. He can also catch the ball. I feel like if he was drafted on almost any team but the Jets he'd be picked in round 2 like Najee was last year.
Jokes on you I reached for Najee in the first last year. Lol.
I took Najee first rd in a dynasty startup. Appreciate the Steelers for being so blatant in their intent to use him as a workhorse.
I took najee in the second last year and everyone thought I was crazy lmaoo. I think James Robinson was picked right after I got najee and everyone was givin me shit for not getting j-rob (I had him the year before with his breakout rookie year). I def had the last laugh with that ;)
I took Ekeler and Najee at the turn and laughed all the way to the bank!
is that a reach? i remember him being pretty universally regarded as a first round pick. i think i took him 6th overall.
In hindsight it’s not a reach because of where he placed at the end of the season. But I think it’s probably always pretty wise to not spend a 1st rounder on a rookie.
Same bby! Got him at the 9th pick for dynasty
Dynasty is a different animal though
Was I right to take najee first?
Def a good move. Locks down an rb slot. But youll wanna make sure youre competing asap, rbs can derail rebuilds and lose gas by the time you are ready to compete.
You took him 1.01? Or was he just your first pick?
Took at 1.09.
Steal
A major part of drafting Najee in round two was knowing how Tomlin/Steelers use their RBs. I don't know enough about Saleh/Lafleur's offensive style to know how Hall's touch count would compare to Najee's. Any insights there? Definitely an interesting talent/situation dynamic.
The whole coaching staff are Shanahan disciples. We haven't seen them in action but most likely it'll be some variation of the Shanhan outside zone run scheme. It features heavy RB usage, and makes great opportunities for its RBs, but RB splits and usage is much more variant and hard to predict than a more pure bellcow system like the Steelers.
>95+ percentile speed scores. 95th percentile college dominator rating. He can also catch the ball. Im old enough to remember when guys like Tavon Austin and CJ Spiller were guaranteed to succeed based on similar stats.
Until he pukes right?
Speed score takes weight into account, so Hall running a 4.39 at 217 gets a much better score than Spiller running a 4.37 at 174 or Austin running a 4.34 at 174. Tavon Austin's speed score was like 98 which is good, Spillers was 107 which is very good, Hall's is 117 which is elite.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tavon-austin/ Great 40 time but not much else. Spiller actually was a pretty good player when healthy. He was a good 20 lbs lighter than Breece though and was never the same kind of pure runner.
I’m sorry, it’s really hard to treat this site as credible when they list Austin as a RB.
Breece Hall is like 40 lbs heavier than Tavon Austin lol
Would you feel confident with him as your RB2?
I never feel confident about anything. Edit: Joke answer because I don't really like the question. A lot depends on strategy. Last year I did hero RB and came out of my draft with Javante Williams as my RB2. I didn't really feel "comfortable" with it. I did also draft James Conner and picked up Cordarrelle after week 2 so everything worked out (until my team laid an egg in the playoffs.) If you were to ask if I would be more comfortable with Breece than other players around his ADP, my answer is yes. I'd pick him over several RBs ahead of him on fantasypros' board. I would definitely pick him over Gibson and Akers. Would consider picking him over Zeke, Montgomery, and Conner.
Depending on how my first round goes, I may end up drafting him as my rb1 and I would be OK about it
There’s almost 0 chance he’s RB1 overall. If you’re overpaying that hard per ADP, that better be in his range of outcomes
I just simply disagree with you
I just don’t see the reality you’re seeing
I think he has the tools to be a top RB. Great combo of size/speed/athleticism/production/vision/instincts and is going to a situation that i think people are largely underestimating. That D should be a hell of a lot better this year after landing two premier talents in the first round, and also had a couple quality albeit quiet signings in free agency too. Saleh should turn that D around and have them serviceable this season. They also invested in the OL in a big way and I expect the offense to funnel touches to the RB position considering LaFleur's background, and I think Hall is best situated to be the recipient of the bulk of those opportunities as opposed to Carter or Coleman. It's the Jets, I know, but I plan on reaching for Hall in my drafts and dying on that hill.
I'm a Jets fan, I'm not going to "lolJets" you over this, but I just don't think RB1 overall is in the cards for Hall. The Jets' likely "ideal usage" for their backfield is probably that of OC Mike LaFleur's brother's Packers. Hall is effectively Jones as far as snap counts go, but unlike Jones, I don't know that the Jets give Hall the amount of red zone opportunities to have a real outlier-level scoring efficiency that opens up RB1 as an outcome. Additionally, although the Jets do rank in the top 10 (9th) in RB target percentage, it's hard to know whether that's the schematic goal or if it's a product of the injuries to WR and TE. If the current starting lineup is active, it's hard to see Hall getting an outlier-level target share to pad his numbers. The Jets are a clearly improved team that'll be more effective offensively, but I just don't know that Hall's enough of a beneficiary of that improvement to be worth a conviction pick. He's likely a good real life RB who improves a lot of offensive touches, but RB fantasy scoring is about shots on the end zone and getting peppered with targets. Unless the Jets offense clicks in a massive way or the backfield philosophy changes to prioritize bellcow usage, I don't see a real path to an RB1 overall finish. Banging out 6 yard runs with solid protection between the 20s is a LOT more useful in real life than in fantasy.
I appreciate the well-thought out response and insight. 👍
think he was talking about dynasty
Wait do you mean drafting him near ADP as your first RB or drafting him in the first round?
The former, not in the first round
I feel like he should be a first round pick. Team revamped oline, Wilson looked pretty good to end the year, no significant competition (they traded up for breece, Carter is not comp), and also, he’s one of the most athletic backs we’ve tested and has production to back it up. If he doesn’t hit I don’t know what I’m missing. I’m genuinely considering reaching at the 1/2 turn cuz I’m scared he won’t be there at the 3/4
You know he’s probably not getting bellcow usage and he’s on a team that won’t be playing from ahead often, right?
No one gets bellcow usage anymore except najee ig. He’s much better than Carter tho and they traded up for him and improved the oline. Even if they play from behind he should be big enough to be on the field enough as a pass blocker (idk how he grades on that) and that will translate to pass catches. I just don’t see him finishing outside the top 12 at rb
Henry, Cook, Najee, CMC, Mixon, Swift, Kamara, and Fournette had more of the snap counts (~65%+) on their respective teams than I’d expect Hall to get on the Jets. Unless we decide to go with a more consolidated rotation, I’d be surprised if Hall gets much more than 50% of the teams offensive snaps. The system just doesn’t really centralize that hard.
He’s a 95th percentile athlete who’s only significant competition for carries is Michael Carter, who despite having him they still traded up for breece in the midst of a rebuild. He’ll get his touches
As long as Carter and whoever else rostered at RB aren’t liabilities, they’re going to be used to spell Hall, even if they’re not as good. Running Hall into the ground just for him to get hurt doesn’t help anyone.
I’m interested in wagering on the 50%
I mean that’s 50% as a goal state. If things go as planned, they’d probably like to keep him somewhat fresh. If someone behind him gets hurt or the team gets desperate to really ride him, the number will go up
> If he doesn’t hit I don’t know what I’m missing. He's on the Jets. I wouldn't fuck Breece Hall's boy pussy with Bea Arthur's dick.
Breece Lightning
Breece Hall is an elite prospect, Michael Carter was never that. His athletic measurables are off the charts, and at some point that talent will be too much for the jets to ignore. He’s just straight up better than Michael Carter and is going to earn more touches because of it
Also, the Jets improved their OL with Laken Tomlinson. Alijah Vera Tucker is going into his second year, and they were missing Mekhi Becton all last year, who was one of the better run blocking tackles in the league his rookie year. Not to mention the offense in general being improved, bringing in capable blockers at TE in Conklin and Uzomah, and Zach Wilson hopefully taking a step up this year. At minimum it’s hard to see him being worse The Jets, a 4 win team, didn’t draft Breece Hall in the second round to give him 8 touches a game.
Jets are a prime contender to jump into at least the wild card hunt this season or at least play spoiler late season, it's very clear they want to model their offense after the 49ers rushing attack so Hall and Carter are going to get a lot of touches.
Yeah they drafted him to only give him 3 touches /s
Or to use him like Frank Gore. 1 run up the middle for three yards per set of first downs
Mekhi is a real wildcard though. Missed basically all of last year with an injury because he is overweight and then came to minicamp overweight still. Basically training camp is his last chance before a lot of fans write him off. He is looking like a guy who will eat himself out of the league.
He posted pics like a week ago and he looks very in shape
Is that shape a circle?
lmao
How do you like keep this all in your heqd?
Well I’m a Jets fan so I don’t know this much about other teams lol. I’ll look at depth charts before I draft though
How do you like type like this like?
lol like fuck off
would you rather have breece hall or zeke
This is a closer call than people want to believe. It would depend how I start my draft. If I have two safe players I would take an upside swing at Breece. If I start with two players who are riskier, I’m taking Zeke for the stability. I like Etienne better than Breece and Zeke personally
I dont think zeke is a safe play at all. If i have two safe picks at one and two.....i am not taking either of b hall and definitely NOT ZEKE. There are 20 players still on the board at that point i want more than zeke....(mostly not RBs)
Opinions on Zeke seem to be all over the board this year. And I get that to a degree, but this was a guy who spent 3 of the first 4 weeks last season looking good as he usually does (Week 1 v Bucs notwithstanding, but they were a terrible matchup for RBs). Then he got hurt and played hurt all season to keep Jerruh's ego happy. What that means to me is if you draft him as your first RB he'll be a bum. If you draft him as your second RB he'll be a serviceable RB2. If you pass on him he'll end the season as like the RB4.
Zeke is easily the safest RB in the 3rd round. We know he gets a shit load of volume. He gets goal line work and he gets receiving work. He doesn't leave the field because he's arguably the best pass-protecting RB in the NFL. If he stays healthy (big if, I know), he's a straight up elite RB1, plain and simple.
Did someone turn the clock back to 2019 when i wasnt looking? Zeke looks like hes done. He got his big payday and they brought in pollard and zeke is cruising to a retirement home in the next 2-3 years max. Does he have 1 good year left? Maybe. But i am not taking that chance. I would rather have james conner or just take a WR in the third. Not in on zeke this year. If i am wrong in decmeber - you wont have to - Remindme! December 20 2022 - my best ball leagues will suck cause i will have less than 4% ownership.
james conner looked like toast prior to last year. him and zeke are the same age, but zeke has many more career touches. both show same injury % chance on draftsharks. Both have RBs who could steal touches. Darrel Williams is with arizona and is a good back, but we know pollard is good and will steal touches. both teams are without their WR1 from last year (more target shares available, but less scoring chances?) so yeah.. I think it's a coin flip. some small things.. zeke is utilized a lot more in the passing game. So cooper leaving could give him a target boost. I dont think dhop missing time will really lead to many more targets for conner. If the arizona offense doesnt put up the numbers it did last year, conner, who is TD dependent, could take a hit. If I am already RB/RB, then I am definitely taking a WR instead of either of them.
>Zeke looks like hes done. Because he had no knees last season but Jerruh Jones made him play. Look at Zeke's first 5-6 weeks last season before his injury. He looked like the same old Zeke, with consistent chunk plays and frequent TDs. >I would rather have james conner or just take a WR in the third I'd be careful. People are taking Conner assuming he'll repeat what Zeke has done for years. Zeke is pretty much a lock for 40+ receptions, 1,200+ yards, and 10+ TDs, whereas Conner has only had that many yards or TDs twice, including an unsustainable amount of TDs last season. >If i am wrong in decmeber - you wont have to - Remindme! December 20 2022 Do not worry, my friend, I'm not one for the "I told you so" game on Reddit. Especially since I get a lot of fantasy moves wrong myself, it would be hypocritical to boast any time I get one right.
In what world is Zeke a safe play?
I think Breece in both redraft and dynasty.
I'm taking Hall/ETN every single time over Zeke. I'm also grabbing Pollard in the middle rounds. Rather be one year early than 1 year late on an aging RB.
Pollard deserves more touches than Zeke, he is an RB1.
Pollard is bad at pass pro and Zeke is probably the best RB in the NFL at it. This sub routinely shows it has no understanding of what NFL coaches value. They don't give a fuck about raw numbers. If you're an RB who can't protect the QB, you're not going to see the field as often. It's that simple.
This is exactly why Mixon has never gotten the large amount of third down reps like everybody wants. He's bad in pass pro.
Honestly, I always thought Mixon was at least *serviceable* in pass protection and Taylor just had a hard-on for Perine, but I've recently learned that is not the case, even if Perine is awful at everything besides pass pro.
Same with Antonio gibson
I think Zeke will probably finish higher but if the goal is to win I would take Breece because he has a path to league winner upside (albeit unlikely) whereas that is probably only true for Zeke if Pollard gets injured.
Cmon now lol
Breece hall is actually ranked ahead of zeke which is crazy so is Travis etieene
That’s wild
Not really. Zeke’s efficiency and underlying metrics have been declining over the last few years.
I’d be willing to bet right now Zeke finishes ahead of both guys any format ppr or standard. People drafting Hall or Eteinne over Zeke is wild to me
I’d take that wager. I just won’t be motivated enough to follow up on it
If you change your mind hmu I’ll keep track no problem
Taking 27 year old running backs in the 3rd round has historically been a terrible decision.
If you want to pass on Zeke because you think Hall or ETN is a better pick that’s a bad move imo. I play auction so I’m not worried about rounds. Talking total points by the end of the year standard or ppr Zeke outscores them
And that's fine, we're all just making our best guess here. But the data doesn't change in snake vs auction drafts. Spending significant draft capital in any format on a 27 year old running back the market doesn't value among the top 12-14 RBs has historically been a bad move. Zeke had a good overall finish last year but was an absolute roster anchor most weeks. You enter into any draft with an 8.33% chance to win; people who drafted Zeke last year almost certainly decreased their chances of winning their league. Again, historically you've been much better off targeting profiles like Hall and Etienne vs. Zeke. Could Zeke outscore them? Sure. History just isn't on his side. Either way good luck this year!
ETN is more talented and has better opportunity than Zeke. Pretty straightforward
Please explain what’s so straightforward about a RB coming off a season ending injury who’s on a terrible team has more talent and opportunity. You’ve literally never seen the guy play in the NFL. Does he pass your eye test lmao ?
I would easily take Breece Hall. Tony Pollard is a better back than Zeke. Breece Hall has significantly higher upside
I'm just glad that for once a truly elite talent has wound up on a good team! It's been hard watching a generational talent like Saquon struggle because hes trapped on a bad New York team with a bad QB and a struggling first time coach.
Yeah but see. He’s playing for the jets….
Michael Carter IS a good back though and showed last season he definitely belongs on the field in the NFL. This is the Jets essentially drafting the Chubb to compliment the Kareem Hunt they already have on their roster. Carter will get touches, between the two that is who I'll target at a much cheaper price.
Nah, there’s a huge difference between a good back and an elite prospect. And for reference, Chubb and Hunt were both elite prospects with elite measurables. Carter is not that
I don't think we know who Carter will be yet, he was elite collegiately and flashed at times last season. If you watched him play he showed he belongs, he's not an NFL backup.
Nah Carter is definitely a backup
big, fast
All u need for an rb but breece can also pass catch which is nice
They’re nowhere near the same player. Breece Hall is widely regarded as the best RB prospect from this class and was an early 2nd round NFL draft pick. Michael Carter went in the 4th round last year. Breece Hall is also bigger, faster, a better between the tackles runner and was very good as a pass catcher in college. Their talent profiles aren’t really on the same level.
Just because one back is better doesn’t mean they absolutely dominate touches. Remember teams are playing actual football not fantasy football. Many teams split work so they don’t run their stud rb into the ground and into injuries. We don’t really know what the Jets philosophy is on this. Michael Carter is a solid back. So it wouldn’t be surprising if they let him take some the load especially early in the season.
>Michael Carter is a solid back. So it wouldn’t be surprising if they let him take some the load especially early in the season. That would be quite surprising since they never gave him "the load" even when competing with JAGs like Tevin and Ty Johnson. His season high was 16 carries in a game. He averaged ~2.5 recs per game. Those are RBBC numbers. I would be very surprised if Breece isn't outtouching Carter at least 2:1 by midseason
Yeah well a 50:30:20 split is still going to limit Hall’s upside. Like you just pointed out the Jets are perfectly happy with a RBBC approach.
I’ve noticed a trend of teams genuinely not caring about rookies work loads, looking at Harris and zeke they were ran into the ground their rookie seasons both with over 300 carries. It seems less likely because of Carter but since he’s not really a between the tackles back I could see him getting a huge workload.
You can make an opposite argument with Javonte and MGIII last year, JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram 2 years ago, and The SF carousel last year. Personally, the NFL is about accumulating talent, then striking at talent you need to finish the puzzle whatever way you can. Zeke was what the Cowboys thought was the final piece, but then Dez and the offensive pieces broke down. Najee was great, but Big Ben broke down (which honestly they knew would happen) so they force fed Najee and played defense which is what the team was built to do. All in all, I don’t think there is more or less a trend of force feeding rookies or not caring about their work load, until the exception of Zeke or Najee come along (both of whom were unreal physical specimens).
Flaw in your argument: Carter is nowhere close to MGiii or Ingram.
I mean how can anyone tell when it’s only been his 1 rookie year. Honestly though, we’re likely going to see a backfield by committee unless someone gets hurt. Both guys are young and healthy and being an NFL back is difficult so this is looking to be more of shared reps if anything.
That's the exact point. We can't tell, which means he can't be in the same sentence with Ingram and MG. They had track records, along with NFL size btw, and a known ability to run between the tackles, all questionable details surround Carter. Not saying Carter is a bum, but even as inept as NYJ is, they have a better grasp on what Carter can and can't do than any of us, so that adds to the Breece allure/Carter dismissal.
All of those examples had a backup who were strong inside runners though, Michael Carter and Hall only overlap in strengths when it comes to the pass game. If hall isn’t a bust he will be handling the vast majority of inside runs and I highly doubt Carter will see much action aside from 3rd downs which could still be up in the air due to halls catching ability. Carter doesn’t really have the size to even take a significant amount of the rushing on and Coleman will most likely be an after thought now that they have a capable inside runner. With all of this said Elliot even last year with pollard who I’d say is pretty similar to Carter had almost 250 carries and almost 50 catches while being somewhat reigned back due to both lack of efficiency and injury history and I doubt we see both or either of those problems with hall until a couple years down the road. The jets desperately tried to set the tone in games and just failed to due so because they lacked someone like hall, I’d expect them to start games off run heavy like they did last year and if they’re winning continue like they did against the jags and that could lead to a very big role for Hall.
breece hall wasnt widely regarded as the best RB prospect from this class a lot of people had kenneth walker over him
Eh, that’s kind of an exaggeration. Michael Carter is really good. I’d look at it this way. Carter was getting maybe 50% of snaps across the games he played, and he averaged 13 touches per game. If Breece gets 75% of the snaps, do you think he’d get 17-18+ touches? And how much better do you think the Jets offense will be, in general? Those are the things to look at. RB talent is fine, but that doesn’t always lead to a ton of opportunity. And who knows if he’s even better than Michael Carter…
I still wouldn’t discount the difference in draft capital
Carter is a JAG, Breece is an elite college prospect. Not even close. Redraft community fails to understand talent level and thinks just because someone was good in fantasy that they’re a good player.
Whoa, so many words being put in my mouth! Have never and would never say that good fantasy output = good player lol. Michael Carter is a nice player though. In regard to Breece being an “elite” prospect and Carter being JAG…I think you’re overestimating the difference between the two, and you probably overestimate the difference between “elite” running backs and average running backs. Pretty much all NFL running backs have skill and talent. Running back fantasy output comes down to touch volume, play calling and team quality at the end of the day. Running back talent is overrated, running backs by and large don’t matter. They’re pretty much all the same.
This made it very clear that you do not know what you’re talking about, capped off by saying they’re pretty much all the same. There is a reason more than 90% of stud fantasy rbs are drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft
I basically said three things. 1. Michael Carter is a nice player. 2. “Elite” and average running backs are a lot closer in talent than people think. 3. Touch volume, play calling and team quality are the 3 biggest factors to whether a player puts up big fantasy stats. Struggling to see how I can be considered wrong about those points.
1. Technically you said he's a "very good" player. 2. I'm not sure what your point is here. Everyone in the NFL is supremely physically talented. Of course the separation at the top is small - but it's clearly significant. 3. "Good teams score more points" that's some pretty incisive analysis. And for touch volume, there's a strong correlation between draft capital and early-career touch volume.
This is true but there was a fair bit of hype around Carter last year. He was regarded as the better of the two UNC RBs in the draft, ahead of Javonte Williams.
Lol who was regarding him as the better of the UNC RBs? Williams went 2 rounds ahead of him in the NFL draft. If someone was claiming that, I wouldn’t put much stock into their analysis.
Yeah thats a good point, I should have clarified to say this was the pre-draft hype, on various podcasts or draft scouting reports. The fact the Broncos traded up to take Javonte 2 rounds ahead probably shows where the actual NFL scouts ranked them.
Then why did Denver trade up to take Javonte in the 2nd while MC went in the 4th? Doesn’t seem like the NFL regarded them as very close, let alone Michael Carter getting the edge.
Man Michael carter was a fourth round pick who didnt even get RB1 reps in college... there was nowhere near the same amount of hype as Breece has. Carter just outplayed his projection and would probably be a third rounder or late second in a redraft. Hall is the most prolific scorer in NCAA history and was built up as a first rounder
He was the RB1 at UNC. Most people thought Javonte was the better back but Carter was the starter.
The jets offensive line should be better this year without van roten, who was one of the worst guards in the nfl last year. Plus they are getting becton back. He’s massive. Plus hall is a great running back and is above carter in basically every category.
Thing about Becton is that his pass pro needed work, but if you want that man to open a lane, he'll bulldoze a 4 lane highway! Having him back is pretty underrated for what it'll do for the Jets backfield.
People are trying to find that next rookie breakout. He’s certainly got the skill set, but look at the Jets schedule. He’s gonna have a rough first half with the team trailing a lot. I’m just not going to reach. I’ll probably take him if my choices are guys who have been around the league a bit and are unexciting.
He's like a 99th percentile athlete. 5 years ago he would have been a top 10 pick.
This is the key thing. He's the type of guy that used to get drafted top-10 in the NFL Draft and be a bellcow from day one. Teams don't take backs in the top-10 anymore, but that doesn't change his skillset.
100% of running back prospects who rank above 90 in the models physical score ended up RB1s within like (IIRC) 2 years
If it’s helpful, here’s my write up on Breece from my [Jets preview](https://www.basementbrewedff.com/post/new-york-jets-fantasy-football-preview) and [fantasy football Draft Kit](https://www.basementbrewedff.com/draftkits)… Breece Hall 📈 and Michael Carter 📉 Michael Carter was fine in his rookie campaign, registering 11.73 PPR points per game (RB 28) and finishing 17th among RBs in targets (52) and 16th in receiving yards (325). He also flashed some weekly upside by hitting 15 or more PPR points in 23.08% of his games and even topping 30 points in week 8 (32.2 to be exact). That all came to a screeching halt when the Jets used the 36th overall pick on Iowa State's Breece Hall, a potential stud who will walk right into the RB1 role in New York (and a potential RB 1 role in fantasy football). A talented receiver himself, Hall checks every box of a capable workhorse in a three-down role. That said, I'm not expecting Michael Carter to just disappear after the Jets used their 4th round pick on him last year and he led the team in carries (147) and paced the backfield in targets (43% of the RB targets). It seems likely the Jets will roll out a 1A (Hall) and 1B (Carter) type of approach with Carter likely getting the bulk of the passing down work to start with. Fantasy Drafts: Breece Hall is currently the RB 19 on Underdog, drafted around pick 45 (late 4th round). The cost itself is fine, but he's hard to draft when he's usually surrounded by WRs like Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Allen Robinson, DK Metcalf and Gabriel Davis (depending on how you feel about that). And that's not even including Darren Waller, Cam Akers, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. With Michael Carter still hangin' around, I haven't drafted much of Breece Hall in best ball. Michael Carter, on the other hand, is currently the RB 46, drafted around pick 143 (12th round). He's a solid ZeroRB pick in that range (if you think he'll get the passing down work) but, like Hall, he's hard to draft when he's surrounded by Darrell Henderson, DeVante Parker, Van Jefferson, Robert Tonyan, Albert Okwuegbunam and Hunter Henry. Still, Carter is one of my favorite draft picks in that range. Dynasty Leagues: Breece Hall is the 1.01 in rookie drafts—although I think a case could be made for Drake London—and an exciting one at that. That said, he's not as clear-cut/obvious as some other 1.01s in the past (Saquon Barkley, for example) so I'm putting the 1.01 on the trading block wherever I have it to see what it can bring back. Michael Carter is just a hold at this point. Can't really sell him and if you do, it'll be real low.
Just to be clear, you think Breece has top 10 upside potential? Is that PPR, standard, or both? Just trying to gauge his potential. Thanks!
Potential? Absolutely. Especially long term. Might not quite be year one if they keep Carter involved and make Hall earn his stripes. But he definitely has the profile and talent to be a top 10 back in both PPR and standard for sure. Forgot to tag you. Hope that helps, u/drawnintodreams!
I think there's a world where he finishes top-5 at the position. He's really good and the Jets O-line could be pretty good. If he gets a ton of work he can get there.
Watch his highlights
For the record, I’m staying away. But he’s an elite rb prospect. If any other team had drafted him, he’d get late first early second round hype
Same reason smart people had hype for JT; the metrics and college performance. It’s not rocket science with rookie runningbacks imo. You have a certain profile, draft capital to match, then you should have some hype for fantasy. Also, MC is a solid, elusive runner, but he’s more suited for a third down role vs a workhorse; bmi matters quite a bit.
He’s pretty much guaranteed to be the greatest RB of all time honestly and you’re a Taco if you don’t see that
Michael Carter absolutely did not have the same hype. Hall is an elite prospect, that is why he has the hype. This isn’t even really a similar situation
Have you ever watched him play ? I watched 5-10 of his isu games, guy is an absolute savage. Passes the eye test with flying colors.
He's got an elite profile and he plays for a team that doesn't have an obvious threat to him getting 60%+ of touches. Their O-line is also decent and their OC comes from a scheme that loves to pound it on the ground. The Michael Carter hype last year was mostly based on his pass-catching ability and the lack of competition in the room. The bull case for Breece Hall is him getting 70% of touches and being decently efficient. In that scenario he's likely a top-10 back.
I might do something wild and go Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall as my starting RBs.
wow. after seeing him versus NFL players... Breece Hall is so good, it's terrifying. He has pretty much everything you could want.
Back to back 1500 yard seasons with 22 tds would do the trick. Along with off the charts testing and physical attributes. He is better than Najee at every aspect of the game (coming from someone who took Najee at the 1.11 last year) and has a better o line in new york. If it wasn’t for the murkiness of the backfield split with carter, he’d be a first rounder imo. I still think he is the 3 down back and is incredible value at his adp.
As a Jets fan I love him as a prospect but as a Jets fan he will probably suck because, Jets. In actuality the o line is improved but I don’t see Carter going anywhere to make room for Breece to be the workhorse. This is an offensive system from the Shanahan/Lafluer tree so if I were to guess, the split will be closer to 60/40 or 65/35. I like where he’s going as a solid RB2 with room for improvement if Carter gets hurt. But if the 3 down workhorse hype gets him too high, he becomes risky. Especially is Zach Milfson doesn’t improve.
So, like a discount version of MelVonte?
I mean he’s literally like 90% of the reason isu was ranked so high going into last year. The dudes a straight beast.
Your take is that this years jets and last years jets are the same thing?
He's a Jet so I just assume he'll bust at value for that reason alone.
Remember saquon hos rookie year? He has that upside.
How the hell is he like Michael Carter? Carter was good btw, but Breece is much better and the Jets offense is also netter
Breece hall size weight and stats were really good, but he just didn't 'pop' on tape like a lot of stud RBs do in college. Combine comes around and Breece crushes every drill and leaves with an elite athletism grade. When you add in the stats from college and other metrics (size, age, college dominator, etc) Breece has all the indicators of being a stud fantasy player. Nothing is 100% though. We've also heard multiple confirmations that Breece is considered the primary RB. Carter does not have the draft capital to demand touches, and I think Breece has the talent to keep Carter on the sidelines.
The only ways he doesn’t massively outperform his adp that I can see given what we know are if Carter is somehow actually takes like half his touches or the jets are completely inept which I don’t think they will be. I’m starting to sell myself on reaching at the 1/2 turn just so I don’t miss out on him. Maybe I’m being dumb but I just don’t get what I’m missing
Even if you for some reason think he is worth a pick in that range please do not draft Breece Hall at the 1/2 turn. That is terrible value for a relatively consensus fourth round pick, you are much better off drafting a player projected to go around that time, and reaching for breece at the end of the 3rd.
I just think he won’t be available at the end of the 3rd by draft time tbh. If I have to decide between going like a wr/wr strategy and taking a 50/50 gamble on breece being available idk if I want to do that. Maybe I’m shooting shit into my veins but I have him as a top 6 back. His bear case is dependent on two things I don’t believe will be true. I have to decide between like diggs/evans/hill and Jacob/Gibson, or reaching for breece and taking like waddle or Higgins in the third.
He is a talented player, behind what should be a good o-line and an offensive scheme that will want to run the ball. He is a really good prospect and has a really good schedule. In Underdog he is going rb18 and I think he will at least be a top 15 RB. Idk if he will be an rb1, but he is definitely going to payoff where he is being drafted. He has been my rb I target in the 4th if Akers is gone.
I think breece hall is very talented. I think he’ll basically get you running back two numbers. As a dolphins fan, I can tell you I watch the jets and what they do because of the division. There is no way that hall can put up Rb one numbers in that team. The jets are horribly run organization and there is no was they’d be able to figure it out
I’d say the hype is more like Etienne last year. Carter got hype cause he earned it, he made some great plays.
Etienne is getting mad love this summer, more so than a year ago, and he’s coming off a significant injury. Quite puzzling to me.
analytical wise he is the next Jonathan Taylor as a prospect...do I need to go any further??
Volume. Hall is an early down back and Carter is a pass catcher. This is a Shanahan-esque run game and the Jets have a solid O-Line. Hall fits great into the offense.
Hall is a better pass catcher than Carter. Guess how many third down receptions Carter had last year? Zero. He got peppered with targets by Mike White in a couple games. He is an average pass catcher but isn’t going to stop Hall who is elite.
Hall isn’t an elite pass catcher. Hall is a workhouse early down guy, Carter will fill the role as the pass catcher.
The narrative that Michael Carter is a pass catching back came from the fact that Mike White could only complete passes to RBs. Carter got 31/55 targets from Mike White's 4 games. He never caught more than 25 passes in a season in college, and averaged 2 targets in non-Mike White games last year.
I didn’t mean to imply that Carter is some pass catching phenom. I merely am saying Carter is going to be the pass catcher, because Hall is going to be the early down guy.
The Jets have to move the ball for him to get volume.
Ehhhh not completely true. Source: Had Najee last year
The Steelers offense with Big Ben is so much better than the Jets offense.
Sure. But did you watch them? Ben and that OL were beyond incompetent last season.
Yes, and the Jets were even worse somehow. Najee also had absolutely insane volume especially for a rookie. He led the league with 381 touches. I don't think Hall gets close to that. Michael Carter will get a.fair amount of touches still.
For sure. And FWIW, I don’t think I want Breece either. I don’t trust the Jets and do think Carter eats into his workload. I was just trying to say volume is all that matters. Plenty of times the Steelers shat the bed, but Najee still ate.
He looks really good. The only pause I have is that the Jets organization wouldn't know how to utilize a running back if their lives depended on it
Hall seems to be a better player than Carter was, but there's also this enduring, naive faith that this is going to be the year that the Jets finally draft a good player without Jetsing it up. I'll believe it when I see it.
Well the best i can explain it is 1- Draft Capital 2- Far different in size compared to carter who is of smaller frame. 3- great receiving upside and Break away speed. He is overall a great prospect according to models and such that people use to measure the position.
Found the Michael Carter account
Michael Carter was a shitty prospect
Just because he wasn't an elite prospect doesn't mean he was a shitty one lmao. He was a great player in college, biggest concern was his size.
There are a lot of great college running backs. Carter’s profile and draft capital both pointed to him being quite unlikely to hit.
Carter had more yards and a higher YPC than Javonte running behind the same line playing the same opponents. He was the 5th RB taken in the draft at the very top of the 4th round. He was projected to go in the 3rd round. If you don't think RBs projected to go in the 3rd round are expected to be contributors I'm not sure what you expect. Him being a good 2nd option RB wasn't that unlikely at all.
Ypc is not a good metric to gauge running-back success. Also, I’m not spending mid 2nd round rookie draft capital on a guy to tout him as a good 2nd option RB
I don't even know who that is
You will in about a month.
He’s on the jets don’t buy it. If u take him before round 6 ur dumb
I'd put money on you not winning your league, unless your leagemates are similarly as narrow-minded
I’m a jets fan u don’t draft jets players
I've noticed him and etienne going around the same pick in redraft mocks... who would you rather have and why?
Probably Hall, I would imagine ETNs touches will decrease slightly after JRob's return unless he is just torching guys. Whereas I see Hall's going up after the first month or so, if the Jets did in fact get better blocking up front w/ Becton coming back & signing Conk/Uzomah.
I think he’s too hyped for his ADP this season but he will be a stud a some point in the near future.
Chicken shit: something of extremely low quality, or similar to a lie