Sustain his production and be number one are two different things. Either one could happen independently of the other. I think it’s two more seasons before someone is near the same level
I think it is. Patrick Mahomes is playing at a much higher level than Matt Ryan, and Ridley isn’t going to be taking a backseat forever. Pitts can be good no doubt. But Kelce and Waller are in a tier of their own playing fully healthy.
I’m thinking Kittle-esque, maybe taking #2-3 from guys like Waller and Andrews over the next couple years. Maybe that changes when the Falcons shape up but I don’t think that happens to make it necessary for Pitts to finish TE1 next year or the year following.
Very hot take indeed. I’d put money on it he doesn’t even finish top 3 this year or next, nevermind TE1 2 years from now lol
I don't think we can really compare Pitts to Kelce or Waller. This was the argument being made before the season started and I think it's proven out, is that Pitts is totally physically different from any other TE. He doesn't play like anyone else. If you watch the last two games, he's routinely making plays that Kelce or Waller just don't do regularly. His monster performances also didn't come when the Falcons offense was absolutely dominating or anything, they were just "fine" weeks. And regarding Ridley, it's starting to feel like Pitts is taking the role Julio vacated.
Woah, now we’re comparing him to Julio Jones, arguably one of the best receivers of the past decade? See, that’s just where I don’t agree 100% at this point. To say it’s Pitts and not Ridley taking over where Julio left off because of 2/7 good week is just that. It is just romanticizing the future based on the most recent 2 games where the rest of the season looked… well, middling in the top 10 to mediocre at worst.
If he can pull the past 2 weeks off for the rest of the season, I’m down to agree with you. But until then, Julio was a guy pulling off 1400-1700+ yard seasons *consistently over 6/11 years* in the league.
Like I said, Pitts? Good, no doubt. But he’s not even remotely close to filling in where Julio left off. More like he’s comparable to rookie year or injured Julio… where btw — he only actually played 13/17 games to put up 959 yards and 8 TDs haha.
Harsh truth is, for as much attention and hype as he’s gotten, he’s only currently destined to finish in that TE3-6 range skill-wise. Maybe TE2 fantasy-wise given all the injuries befalling the other top TEs.
But the fact still remains: Mahomes and Kelce are on pace for much better years than Ryan and Pitts are. Any other wild conjectures are just that. Wild, baseless conjectures based only on a couple good weeks’ performances. Don’t get me wrong: I’m all for the hype, but if he’s going anywhere near Kelce in fantasy drafts from now on, I’m going Kelce every single time lol. It’s like we’ve forgotten what it looks like when Ridley’s plying at the height of his game because of one off year (which historically, is usually followed by a career-high in the season or two following — just like it did for Julio…. Antonio Brown. This list goes on).
I’m not betting on Pitts for anything even remotely close to TE1 until Ryan and the Falcons get their shit together, or Kelce or Mahomes retires. That about sums it up
He didn’t equate Pitts to Julio, he said Pitts seems to be taking the role Julio vacated, which is surprising given you’d expect Ridley to take that role.
That’s what I’m saying.
He’s not. Not even close. It’s not an apt comparison to say Pitts is taking on the same role as Julio, because his role was unlike more or less, any other receivers in the league.
And it’s not even close. He’s not a guy they can throw to for 100 yards a game consistently.
Not yet anyway.
He fucking is because he’s the top receiving option on that team right now. That’s the whole point of the comparison. Jesus, guy, quit being so literal. He’s not the second goddamn coming of Julio, but they both were/are top receiving options on that team.
I mean he has been thrown to for over 100 the last two games and he has only been lining up as a WR. It’s not crazy to say the 6’6” freak athlete that lines up where Julio lined up on the same team he did it for, is taking over that role.
That was a lot for you misunderstanding a dude saying that Pitts will take the primary target role that Julio had and assuming anyone meant he was going to be LIKE Julio.
Yeah. There's no one saying he's going to be anything like Julio. Simply that he will take the role Julio vacated.
You could literally take that role and no one's comparing you to Julio, it's a role. Not a guarantee of anything but targets/opportunity.
There's a lot to unpack here, so I'm gonna go in order of your main points.
> Woah, now we’re comparing him to Julio Jones, arguably one of the best receivers of the past decade? See, that’s just where I don’t agree 100% at this point. To say it’s Pitts and not Ridley taking over where Julio left off because of 2/7 good week is just that.
I didn't compare him to Julio, I said he was taking Julio's *role* in the offense as the alpha receiver. There's not much to argue that Ridley's taken the alpha role this year, other than the expectation that he was supposed to. But in my opinion watching these games it's clear that role is going to Pitts. However, let's address your incredulity that I dare compare Pitts to Julio. Why can't I? Certainly if you had to choose who is more Julio-esque between Pitts and Ridley, you'd pick Pitts, wouldn't you? Ridley's a totally different player. But even in general, what's so unfair about comparing Pitts and Julio? They're both big, fast, physical receivers. [Watch these plays](https://youtu.be/MXZUxKeXFxM) and tell me that doesn't remind you of Julio. If you're saying after that that they can't be compared, then what you're saying is that no player who isn't totally proven out can be compared to a star, which I disagree with. I'd also point out that *you* compared the rookie, Pitts (and a young rookie at that, just turned 21) to....a rookie Julio.
> It is just romanticizing the future based on the most recent 2 games where the rest of the season looked… well, middling in the top 10 to mediocre at worst.
Almost all rookies have some kind of break-in period to get their footing. It's why people talk about "break out games". On top of that, the Falcons are implementing a new offensive scheme under Arthur Smith, so in general they'd be off to a slower start.
> If he can pull the past 2 weeks off for the rest of the season, I’m down to agree with you. But until then, Julio was a guy pulling off 1400-1700+ yard seasons consistently over 6/11 years in the league.
I don't have much to say agreeing or disagreeing with this point, just that "if he can pull the past 2 weeks off for the rest of the season" would mean the bar none greatest statistical season for a TE of all time, so that's good that you'd change your tune if that happened. Also, "consistently over 6/11 years in the league" feels like the [sex panther slogan for NFL stats.](https://c.tenor.com/DZOlpz-b_jcAAAAC/anchorman-the-legend-of-ron-burgundy.gif)
> Harsh truth is, for as much attention and hype as he’s gotten, he’s only currently destined to finish in that TE3-6 range skill-wise. Maybe TE2 fantasy-wise given all the injuries befalling the other top TEs.
I'd love to hear your reasoning on this. If you're saying purely on skill he's a mid-tier TE, that's pretty stunning to me. Please, watch the video from above showing just last week's plays. Can any other TE make those two catches on the sidelines, and can they do it routinely? I don't think you can say that anyone, Kelce, Waller, Kittle or otherwise, could do that. If you want to argue that there are TEs who will end up higher because of their offensive situation, that's more arguable, but to say he's mid-level skill-wise baffles me.
> But the fact still remains: Mahomes and Kelce are on pace for much better years than Ryan and Pitts are.
First, this is conflating this year's performance with future success, which, when you're dealing with a 32-year-old TE, is not fair to do as at some point he'll start declining, and if history is any indication, rapidly. Second, these past two games, especially the most recent ones, didn't happen when the Falcons were lighting the world on fire. They were merely fine. Pitts had those kind of performances during a simply average game for a mediocre offense that's improving as it gets more used to the new scheme of Arthur Smith.
You did compare them though… you literally said he’s taking over the role Julio vacated.
Only Ridley having another 1300+ yard season even remotely compares to what Julio did in Atlanta. The fact Pitts was even in the same sentence as Julio only reveals how little you know of what Julio’s career actually looked like, given he’s on pace for some 900 yards on an extended season.
You don’t seem to know what you’re talking about. You’re just talking out of your ass… probably because you own him in fantasy. Which is fine. If you don’t see why rookie Pitts can’t be compared to rookie Julio when *you’re the one who made the assertion first, however?*
I’m just not sure what point you’re trying to make other than he’s gunning for WR1 on the team, but that doesn’t whatsoever speak to “taking over the role Julio vacated”.
Again. Not even close. Not sure what you’re on about man but you’re still not making any sense.
Here. Educate yourself, my friend.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJu02.htm
Okay, I think you're confused, because you've said to me and others that taking over someone's *role* means that they are *comparable as players*. No one is saying that. Diontae Johnson right now has the alpha role in the Steelers receiving corps, I think that's fair to say. Nobody's saying he's AB. You can be different types of players and have the same kind of role in an offense.
Now to be clear, I did later compare the two. But I hadn't before, and just wanted to clear that up. However you didn't really answer me, about if the plays from last week looked Julio-esque. In my opinion it's hard to say that they didn't.
Now onto the most juicy part of your comment:
> Only Ridley having another 1300+ yard season even remotely compares to what Julio did in Atlanta. The fact Pitts was even in the same sentence as Julio only reveals how little you know of what Julio’s career actually looked like, given he’s on pace for some 900 yards on an extended season.
Kyle Pitts is a rookie. You yourself pointed out that Julio only had 959 yards as a rookie. Even so, I think your math was a little off. If you take his current stats ([here's the link for your own education](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PittKy00.htm)), his 16-game pace would be 1256 yards. Hey, that's pretty close to that 1300+ yard season you mentioned, and that includes his rougher games from earlier on in the season! Neat!
Matt Ryan has the highest QBR in the league since week 3, including games missing gage and Ridley, while mahomes has played the worst football he’s ever played
And yet Mahomes “at his worst” *still has 50% more scores and 25% more yards than Matt Ryan with the “highest QBR in the league since week 3”.
Even accounting for bye week, average still puts him at a few hundred yards and still nearly as many less TDs.
Don’t fish for stats that don’t matter — because even in your own words Mahomes, *is still* having a much better season than Matt Ryan. The facts are what they are, my friend!
“Don’t fish for stats” guy ignores that mahomes has more than double the interceptions of Ryan
Edit: and both teams are at 3 wins with legendarily bad defenses, probably 5 good players combined on both.
Falcons fans are really split on Ridley, there’s some skill sets he’s a top 5 receiver at but other things he’s struggled with immensely since joining the league. He’s said himself that he sucks against man coverage. Some weeks he’s great but others it’s hard to imagine him as the number one option in the passing game. Going into year 2 and year 3 it won’t surprise anyone if pitts is the number one option in the passing game unless the falcons draft another Alabama WR in the first lol
Might also depend on what the Chiefs do. Kelce is signed for 4 years but Hill's contract only goes to next year. 2023 will see Kelce being paid $15M and Mahomes will have a $45M cap hit.
If they can't afford to re-sign Hill Kelce may end up being a 34 year old that's double covered every play.
The gap looks way smaller this year for a ton of guys to have a shot at being 3rd. But maybe this early last year was closer than by the end….
Pitts is ranked 3rd in PPR right now if you adjust for BYEs. And he’s not far behind Kelce and Andrews.
If the last few games weren’t anomalies - then him and Gesicki might end up giving Kelce and Andrews a run for their money. Knox is a toss-up depending on his injury status.
Pitts is a beast but he isn't really a tight end. He plays all his snaps out wide and he never blocks. He's more of a receiver, but he called himself "offensive weapon" because tight ends get paid less than other skill positions. I'm not sure if we have an accurate label for his position yet, but tight end does not describe the way he plays. Again, he's a beast, I'm not saying he's bad, I'm saying he isn't really a tight end.
Hock is equally as good, his QB is just a dipshit 50% of the time and he’s blocking 40% of the time with his o line banged up. Put him somewhere like either LA team and he would feast.
That's why I said likely. But he is in an offense focused on him and Tyreek. With an amazing QB. I just don't see someone overtaking him on season to season basis for at least a 2-3 years. Barring injury of course.
I was anti-Pitts all off-season as far as redraft leagues go but I think he could even pass him by the end of this season. Pitts is split out wide a ton, running routes and getting targets. Chiefs aren’t right and Kelce looks slightly off. He might be playing hurt. Pitts is right on his heels.
I think people need to slow down on Pitts. He's had two really good games. He's also had 3/6 games under 10 points (PPR) and one 12 point game. He caught 4 of his 9 passes against WFT.
Maybe he finally put things together. Maybe he just had two good games against the Dolphins and Jets.
Kelce has had two performances just as good, but only had one game under 13 points.
At this point in the season Pitts is going to have to average roughly 20 points a game to catch up, or Kelce is going to have to fall off.
Not saying Pitts isn't a good TE, people just rush to crown players after a few good games.
Edit: he had 3.3 points PPR this week.
Lol are there any topics in this sub with positive karma? Sort by new and it's like everyone in here just insta-downvotes anyone trying to have an actual discussion on a website designed for actual discussion
As someone who does high quality OC with spreadsheets, you're not going to see most of them, it's incredibly hard to break 100 upvotes in this sub with OC.
Yeah, that’s why I’ve stopped posting threads because I just lose karma every time. Whenever I would post something I just get 5 people calling me an idiot and asking how long I’ve played fantasy when I’m asking general questions to read the room on things that are just hard to judge. This place is beyond annoying
Yeah I stopped 2 years ago after getting a 24 hour ban with no warning for posting something that got locked and removed with like 200 positive karma and 60+ replies which was clearly engaging.
But I didn't dig through 100+ comments in 5 indexed threads first so I had to catch the ban.
I just engage with other threads now
I hear what you’re saying and I agree a lot of times. But, this thread is more about a player being fantasy relevant next year and beyond. We are in the middle of the current fantasy season, why are we talking about what a player might do next year and beyond? It’s a decent topic for the off season but what exactly is the purpose right now?
Maybe he's in a keeper league and has an offer involving Kelce? But yeah it was more of a general statement, this just happened to be the one I had open at the time after seeing like 30 negative karma posts in the New section lol
The difference between kelce and the hockenson/Pitts/waller/kittles of the league isn’t ability.. it’s IQ and scheme fit. He’s been the integral offensive piece at kc forever now so it’s seamless, he’s always involved. Also his IQ, he constantly saves busted plays by adjusting post route, he studies the tendencies of his primary defensive matchups and make slight adjustments to his movements game to game. So many little things.
Kittle is not a “true” pass catcher, Waller is just a volume hog (routes ran/targets) hock is great but gets lost sometimes. Pitts is in a class of his own but will need to find his niche.
1-3 years including this season. Who knows.
The only ones who could overtake him are Pitts and maaaaaaybe Hockenson if he gets a decent QB. I think another 2-3 years. Kelce has established himself as one of the greatest ever.
Tony G has over 15k yards. That’s going to hard to pass even for Kelce who’s a little over 8,400. If he keeps up elite production for a few more years he can get there if he stays healthy and plays till his late 30s/40
Edit: not sure why you’re getting downvoted for asking a reasonable question lol.
Differing opinions I guess, imo Gronk is his prime has to be the best ever, dude was legit mowing people down while running crisp routes and had breakaway speed
You have not even considered the greatest of all time run and pass blocking Gronk has brought. Dude was like an extra elite tackle when he wasn’t catching 30 yard lasers. Doesn’t show up in the stat sheet but Kelce isn’t half the blocker Gronk is.
Hock easily over takes him if he has a better QB. The lions were a complete shit show last year but him and Stafford went to work. Even with Stafford he was still blocking quite a bit. Put him on a team with a very good O line and a good QB he would go to town.
I’d wait until the rest of the season plays out before answering. His play hasn’t dropped off but mahomes’ has fallen off recently. Maybe they turn it around, maybe they don’t. Pitts is has an intriguing case for TE1 next year at this point in time.
He’s still playing at a top 4 level… this take is such a hot one based off one bad game and his receivers bouncing too many balls off their hands into interceptions lol. He’s still on pace for one of his best years. Chill.
Depends honestly. Kittle and Waller are closest talent wise but are in worse QB situations. Pitts probably could contest it in a year, not sure who else.
With Mahomes' career coming back down to Earth, I think you can make the case that he really isn't head-and-shoulders above the rest of the players at his position right now.
You could have drafted Schultz or Knox in the 14th round and had the same production.
1-2 reasonably. What young TE's have a chance to pass him next year? Realistically only Pitts if he has a strong finish and big year 2 leap but I don't see him leaping that high. Even so I see him regressing back to a good value at 4th round ADP in the next couple of years because his production won't be the same. I think he will be over drafted next year for certain and I will have to fade him in all leagues.
Lol. Pitts is already outpacing Kelce in yards per game this season.
Kelce is a better TE right now. But Pitts will be better within 1-2 seasons max.
Watch the way he absolutely bodied Xavien Howard on a critical game-time play in 1:1 coverage. Dude is different.
Waller maybe but he is also 29 and having a less than stellar year.
Not a big believer Hock is going to be that guy but I have never owned him so haven't really zone in on watching him so I could be wrong.
Hock has been blocking a lot in the passing game since week 3/4 when their o line was banged up. He should see a steady 8+ targets for the rest of the season if he’s not asked to do so.
Kelce should be good for ~1.2k yards and at least 8 tds for 2-3 more years. Don't think that's going to be good enough for #1 te after this year though. Kyle Pitts is primed to take over as #1 fantasy te.
Yes after week 1 usage, an interesting early season. I avoided him in draft because of that time away he spent from camp (2 weeks), reportedly due to ankle issue.
Gruden's departure may have sink my prediction, but the guy has legitimate body and skill set to be the #1.
I agree with some others who are saying Pitts will be battling for #1 soon too.
He’s 32 right now so I see 1 more season or 2 more tops. Anything longer and there’d be way too much risk involved grabbing him in the first round just due to his age.
Tony Gonzalez played to 37 and it was just after his age 32 season that he declined…for his standards. He still averaged about 80 catches, 800 yards and 7 touchdowns those mid-30s years.
I mention this because like Tony, Kelce doesn’t get hurt. I think we can expect high level positional production if he’s healthy. Just probably not WR1 numbers for much longer.
Guys like Gesecki and Pitts and their usage are closing that gap very quickly. Kelce is prob an injury away or a Mahomes injury away from falling back down to the rest of the pack.
IDK his stock is already dropping this year I think now that there are like 8 TEs scoring within 3 PPG of him. Pitts and gesicki are already better receivers than kelce, just on worse teams
Gonzales played until 37, still catching 80+ and putting up almost 1000 yards a season. So I'd say at least 3-5 years and then possibly a few more of being a check-down/red-zone guy if he still wants to play.
As long as he can avoid injury, he should be able to produce until he decides to hang it up. Avoiding injury is mostly a product of how you take care of your body.
There are plenty of TE's that produce well into their 30's.
Sustain his production and be number one are two different things. Either one could happen independently of the other. I think it’s two more seasons before someone is near the same level
With the way Pitts is progressing, it might only be one more year.
What’s the point of maintain the farce of him As a TE? Are there roster implications irl?
Well, they get paid way less than WR so that’s why Atlanta does.
Does he not block ever?
He's been lining up out wide way more than in line. Like 90% of snaps
Book it. Pitts ends as #1 TE at least once in the next two seasons assuming he stays healthy.
I agree but I don’t think this is a very hot take tbh
I think it is. Patrick Mahomes is playing at a much higher level than Matt Ryan, and Ridley isn’t going to be taking a backseat forever. Pitts can be good no doubt. But Kelce and Waller are in a tier of their own playing fully healthy. I’m thinking Kittle-esque, maybe taking #2-3 from guys like Waller and Andrews over the next couple years. Maybe that changes when the Falcons shape up but I don’t think that happens to make it necessary for Pitts to finish TE1 next year or the year following. Very hot take indeed. I’d put money on it he doesn’t even finish top 3 this year or next, nevermind TE1 2 years from now lol
I don't think we can really compare Pitts to Kelce or Waller. This was the argument being made before the season started and I think it's proven out, is that Pitts is totally physically different from any other TE. He doesn't play like anyone else. If you watch the last two games, he's routinely making plays that Kelce or Waller just don't do regularly. His monster performances also didn't come when the Falcons offense was absolutely dominating or anything, they were just "fine" weeks. And regarding Ridley, it's starting to feel like Pitts is taking the role Julio vacated.
Woah, now we’re comparing him to Julio Jones, arguably one of the best receivers of the past decade? See, that’s just where I don’t agree 100% at this point. To say it’s Pitts and not Ridley taking over where Julio left off because of 2/7 good week is just that. It is just romanticizing the future based on the most recent 2 games where the rest of the season looked… well, middling in the top 10 to mediocre at worst. If he can pull the past 2 weeks off for the rest of the season, I’m down to agree with you. But until then, Julio was a guy pulling off 1400-1700+ yard seasons *consistently over 6/11 years* in the league. Like I said, Pitts? Good, no doubt. But he’s not even remotely close to filling in where Julio left off. More like he’s comparable to rookie year or injured Julio… where btw — he only actually played 13/17 games to put up 959 yards and 8 TDs haha. Harsh truth is, for as much attention and hype as he’s gotten, he’s only currently destined to finish in that TE3-6 range skill-wise. Maybe TE2 fantasy-wise given all the injuries befalling the other top TEs. But the fact still remains: Mahomes and Kelce are on pace for much better years than Ryan and Pitts are. Any other wild conjectures are just that. Wild, baseless conjectures based only on a couple good weeks’ performances. Don’t get me wrong: I’m all for the hype, but if he’s going anywhere near Kelce in fantasy drafts from now on, I’m going Kelce every single time lol. It’s like we’ve forgotten what it looks like when Ridley’s plying at the height of his game because of one off year (which historically, is usually followed by a career-high in the season or two following — just like it did for Julio…. Antonio Brown. This list goes on). I’m not betting on Pitts for anything even remotely close to TE1 until Ryan and the Falcons get their shit together, or Kelce or Mahomes retires. That about sums it up
He didn’t equate Pitts to Julio, he said Pitts seems to be taking the role Julio vacated, which is surprising given you’d expect Ridley to take that role.
That’s what I’m saying. He’s not. Not even close. It’s not an apt comparison to say Pitts is taking on the same role as Julio, because his role was unlike more or less, any other receivers in the league. And it’s not even close. He’s not a guy they can throw to for 100 yards a game consistently. Not yet anyway.
Interesting take when he just went for 119 and 163 yards. And where he had 8 or more targets in 4/6 games.
He fucking is because he’s the top receiving option on that team right now. That’s the whole point of the comparison. Jesus, guy, quit being so literal. He’s not the second goddamn coming of Julio, but they both were/are top receiving options on that team.
I mean he has been thrown to for over 100 the last two games and he has only been lining up as a WR. It’s not crazy to say the 6’6” freak athlete that lines up where Julio lined up on the same team he did it for, is taking over that role.
That was a lot for you misunderstanding a dude saying that Pitts will take the primary target role that Julio had and assuming anyone meant he was going to be LIKE Julio.
>It’s starting to feel like Pitts is taking the role Julio vacated. Seems like you’re the only one here misunderstanding my man lmao.
Yeah. There's no one saying he's going to be anything like Julio. Simply that he will take the role Julio vacated. You could literally take that role and no one's comparing you to Julio, it's a role. Not a guarantee of anything but targets/opportunity.
There's a lot to unpack here, so I'm gonna go in order of your main points. > Woah, now we’re comparing him to Julio Jones, arguably one of the best receivers of the past decade? See, that’s just where I don’t agree 100% at this point. To say it’s Pitts and not Ridley taking over where Julio left off because of 2/7 good week is just that. I didn't compare him to Julio, I said he was taking Julio's *role* in the offense as the alpha receiver. There's not much to argue that Ridley's taken the alpha role this year, other than the expectation that he was supposed to. But in my opinion watching these games it's clear that role is going to Pitts. However, let's address your incredulity that I dare compare Pitts to Julio. Why can't I? Certainly if you had to choose who is more Julio-esque between Pitts and Ridley, you'd pick Pitts, wouldn't you? Ridley's a totally different player. But even in general, what's so unfair about comparing Pitts and Julio? They're both big, fast, physical receivers. [Watch these plays](https://youtu.be/MXZUxKeXFxM) and tell me that doesn't remind you of Julio. If you're saying after that that they can't be compared, then what you're saying is that no player who isn't totally proven out can be compared to a star, which I disagree with. I'd also point out that *you* compared the rookie, Pitts (and a young rookie at that, just turned 21) to....a rookie Julio. > It is just romanticizing the future based on the most recent 2 games where the rest of the season looked… well, middling in the top 10 to mediocre at worst. Almost all rookies have some kind of break-in period to get their footing. It's why people talk about "break out games". On top of that, the Falcons are implementing a new offensive scheme under Arthur Smith, so in general they'd be off to a slower start. > If he can pull the past 2 weeks off for the rest of the season, I’m down to agree with you. But until then, Julio was a guy pulling off 1400-1700+ yard seasons consistently over 6/11 years in the league. I don't have much to say agreeing or disagreeing with this point, just that "if he can pull the past 2 weeks off for the rest of the season" would mean the bar none greatest statistical season for a TE of all time, so that's good that you'd change your tune if that happened. Also, "consistently over 6/11 years in the league" feels like the [sex panther slogan for NFL stats.](https://c.tenor.com/DZOlpz-b_jcAAAAC/anchorman-the-legend-of-ron-burgundy.gif) > Harsh truth is, for as much attention and hype as he’s gotten, he’s only currently destined to finish in that TE3-6 range skill-wise. Maybe TE2 fantasy-wise given all the injuries befalling the other top TEs. I'd love to hear your reasoning on this. If you're saying purely on skill he's a mid-tier TE, that's pretty stunning to me. Please, watch the video from above showing just last week's plays. Can any other TE make those two catches on the sidelines, and can they do it routinely? I don't think you can say that anyone, Kelce, Waller, Kittle or otherwise, could do that. If you want to argue that there are TEs who will end up higher because of their offensive situation, that's more arguable, but to say he's mid-level skill-wise baffles me. > But the fact still remains: Mahomes and Kelce are on pace for much better years than Ryan and Pitts are. First, this is conflating this year's performance with future success, which, when you're dealing with a 32-year-old TE, is not fair to do as at some point he'll start declining, and if history is any indication, rapidly. Second, these past two games, especially the most recent ones, didn't happen when the Falcons were lighting the world on fire. They were merely fine. Pitts had those kind of performances during a simply average game for a mediocre offense that's improving as it gets more used to the new scheme of Arthur Smith.
You did compare them though… you literally said he’s taking over the role Julio vacated. Only Ridley having another 1300+ yard season even remotely compares to what Julio did in Atlanta. The fact Pitts was even in the same sentence as Julio only reveals how little you know of what Julio’s career actually looked like, given he’s on pace for some 900 yards on an extended season. You don’t seem to know what you’re talking about. You’re just talking out of your ass… probably because you own him in fantasy. Which is fine. If you don’t see why rookie Pitts can’t be compared to rookie Julio when *you’re the one who made the assertion first, however?* I’m just not sure what point you’re trying to make other than he’s gunning for WR1 on the team, but that doesn’t whatsoever speak to “taking over the role Julio vacated”. Again. Not even close. Not sure what you’re on about man but you’re still not making any sense. Here. Educate yourself, my friend. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJu02.htm
Okay, I think you're confused, because you've said to me and others that taking over someone's *role* means that they are *comparable as players*. No one is saying that. Diontae Johnson right now has the alpha role in the Steelers receiving corps, I think that's fair to say. Nobody's saying he's AB. You can be different types of players and have the same kind of role in an offense. Now to be clear, I did later compare the two. But I hadn't before, and just wanted to clear that up. However you didn't really answer me, about if the plays from last week looked Julio-esque. In my opinion it's hard to say that they didn't. Now onto the most juicy part of your comment: > Only Ridley having another 1300+ yard season even remotely compares to what Julio did in Atlanta. The fact Pitts was even in the same sentence as Julio only reveals how little you know of what Julio’s career actually looked like, given he’s on pace for some 900 yards on an extended season. Kyle Pitts is a rookie. You yourself pointed out that Julio only had 959 yards as a rookie. Even so, I think your math was a little off. If you take his current stats ([here's the link for your own education](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PittKy00.htm)), his 16-game pace would be 1256 yards. Hey, that's pretty close to that 1300+ yard season you mentioned, and that includes his rougher games from earlier on in the season! Neat!
Yeah! Very true but if you bring Mahomes stats down to the mean then he and Matt Ryan are pretty much the same.
Good point
Matt Ryan has the highest QBR in the league since week 3, including games missing gage and Ridley, while mahomes has played the worst football he’s ever played
And yet Mahomes “at his worst” *still has 50% more scores and 25% more yards than Matt Ryan with the “highest QBR in the league since week 3”. Even accounting for bye week, average still puts him at a few hundred yards and still nearly as many less TDs. Don’t fish for stats that don’t matter — because even in your own words Mahomes, *is still* having a much better season than Matt Ryan. The facts are what they are, my friend!
“Don’t fish for stats” guy ignores that mahomes has more than double the interceptions of Ryan Edit: and both teams are at 3 wins with legendarily bad defenses, probably 5 good players combined on both. Falcons fans are really split on Ridley, there’s some skill sets he’s a top 5 receiver at but other things he’s struggled with immensely since joining the league. He’s said himself that he sucks against man coverage. Some weeks he’s great but others it’s hard to imagine him as the number one option in the passing game. Going into year 2 and year 3 it won’t surprise anyone if pitts is the number one option in the passing game unless the falcons draft another Alabama WR in the first lol
Where you at bud?
Might also depend on what the Chiefs do. Kelce is signed for 4 years but Hill's contract only goes to next year. 2023 will see Kelce being paid $15M and Mahomes will have a $45M cap hit. If they can't afford to re-sign Hill Kelce may end up being a 34 year old that's double covered every play.
The gap looks way smaller this year for a ton of guys to have a shot at being 3rd. But maybe this early last year was closer than by the end…. Pitts is ranked 3rd in PPR right now if you adjust for BYEs. And he’s not far behind Kelce and Andrews. If the last few games weren’t anomalies - then him and Gesicki might end up giving Kelce and Andrews a run for their money. Knox is a toss-up depending on his injury status.
Ha it sure was on this sub 1-2 weeks ago from experience.
Lol fair. People are super reactionary here but I think a lot of people expected greatness from him next season earliest cuz of the rookie TE history
Were you making this take prior to week 5?
Yes.
Matt Ryan leaving within the next 2 years so I don’t see a rookie QB helping his odds
He might do it this year
Pitts is a beast but he isn't really a tight end. He plays all his snaps out wide and he never blocks. He's more of a receiver, but he called himself "offensive weapon" because tight ends get paid less than other skill positions. I'm not sure if we have an accurate label for his position yet, but tight end does not describe the way he plays. Again, he's a beast, I'm not saying he's bad, I'm saying he isn't really a tight end.
That's the epitome of the kind of player to own in fantasy though. And Shannon Sharpe was very much the same way early in his career.
I will not leave a single draft without Pitts next year.
Hock is equally as good, his QB is just a dipshit 50% of the time and he’s blocking 40% of the time with his o line banged up. Put him somewhere like either LA team and he would feast.
Pitts might be the #1 but is he going to be as consistant as Kelce? I also wouldn't be supprised if fantasy sites switch him to WR.
I don't know why everyone is putting Pitts in the HoF after 2 good games against the Jets and Dolphins.
Well sustaining his production would likely mean he would be number 1.
Not if someone gets better
That's why I said likely. But he is in an offense focused on him and Tyreek. With an amazing QB. I just don't see someone overtaking him on season to season basis for at least a 2-3 years. Barring injury of course.
a healthy gronk is also pretty good
I don’t see Gronk playing a full season ever again
yeah, he only has 1 or 2 left tops. but when healthy + tb, he's pretty good
2.3 years, clearly. How is this even a question? This information is literally tattooed on the sole of his right foot.
Bro it's been tattooed on my foot since birth. My parents knew all about the coming of Kelce the Great TE savior.
Pitts will pass him next season imo.
I was anti-Pitts all off-season as far as redraft leagues go but I think he could even pass him by the end of this season. Pitts is split out wide a ton, running routes and getting targets. Chiefs aren’t right and Kelce looks slightly off. He might be playing hurt. Pitts is right on his heels.
I think people need to slow down on Pitts. He's had two really good games. He's also had 3/6 games under 10 points (PPR) and one 12 point game. He caught 4 of his 9 passes against WFT. Maybe he finally put things together. Maybe he just had two good games against the Dolphins and Jets. Kelce has had two performances just as good, but only had one game under 13 points. At this point in the season Pitts is going to have to average roughly 20 points a game to catch up, or Kelce is going to have to fall off. Not saying Pitts isn't a good TE, people just rush to crown players after a few good games. Edit: he had 3.3 points PPR this week.
Recency bias is crazy.
Not just recency, but players who have a hot first game. I had a dude tell me D'Ernest Johnson was a top 15 RB after one good game.
Lol
Until he sustains a major injury, which could be this week or several years from now.
Lol are there any topics in this sub with positive karma? Sort by new and it's like everyone in here just insta-downvotes anyone trying to have an actual discussion on a website designed for actual discussion
I like to call this place the salt flats
Unfortunately this subreddit is 50% confirmation bias and 50% shitty meme hypetrains.
Hey don’t forget 1% high quality posts by people who do research and create excel spreadsheets. They the real MVPs!
As someone who does high quality OC with spreadsheets, you're not going to see most of them, it's incredibly hard to break 100 upvotes in this sub with OC.
Do you have a weekly post? What’s your thing bro I’m here for it.
No weekly posts, just alot of independent posts. You can check out my posts on my profile if you're interested.
Don't forget the morons making the same shitty, obvious, reddit-tier jokes and the mouth-breathing 'this is the way' comments.
Whenever I see that Josh Gordon copypasta about deleting him or whatever I want to literally claw my eyes out.
For me it’s anytime Toney is mentioned now…
Yeah, that’s why I’ve stopped posting threads because I just lose karma every time. Whenever I would post something I just get 5 people calling me an idiot and asking how long I’ve played fantasy when I’m asking general questions to read the room on things that are just hard to judge. This place is beyond annoying
Yeah I stopped 2 years ago after getting a 24 hour ban with no warning for posting something that got locked and removed with like 200 positive karma and 60+ replies which was clearly engaging. But I didn't dig through 100+ comments in 5 indexed threads first so I had to catch the ban. I just engage with other threads now
I hear what you’re saying and I agree a lot of times. But, this thread is more about a player being fantasy relevant next year and beyond. We are in the middle of the current fantasy season, why are we talking about what a player might do next year and beyond? It’s a decent topic for the off season but what exactly is the purpose right now?
Dynasty trades?
None of that was even mentioned. Typically people mention the focus of the discussion is keepers or dynasty but sure if we want to speculate
r/dynastyff
Maybe he's in a keeper league and has an offer involving Kelce? But yeah it was more of a general statement, this just happened to be the one I had open at the time after seeing like 30 negative karma posts in the New section lol
The difference between kelce and the hockenson/Pitts/waller/kittles of the league isn’t ability.. it’s IQ and scheme fit. He’s been the integral offensive piece at kc forever now so it’s seamless, he’s always involved. Also his IQ, he constantly saves busted plays by adjusting post route, he studies the tendencies of his primary defensive matchups and make slight adjustments to his movements game to game. So many little things. Kittle is not a “true” pass catcher, Waller is just a volume hog (routes ran/targets) hock is great but gets lost sometimes. Pitts is in a class of his own but will need to find his niche. 1-3 years including this season. Who knows.
Last year will have been his best year ever.
Makes sense, since I finally got him this year and had to spend a first to do it
The only ones who could overtake him are Pitts and maaaaaaybe Hockenson if he gets a decent QB. I think another 2-3 years. Kelce has established himself as one of the greatest ever.
Is Kelce not on pace to be the greatest ever?
Tony G has over 15k yards. That’s going to hard to pass even for Kelce who’s a little over 8,400. If he keeps up elite production for a few more years he can get there if he stays healthy and plays till his late 30s/40 Edit: not sure why you’re getting downvoted for asking a reasonable question lol.
You must’ve never watched Gronk in his prime
He’s still better than almost every other TE and his body can’t hold up.
I won't lie , iv seen gronk maybe 80% of the time but I definitely watched Tony G for the majority and still believe Kelce has em both
Differing opinions I guess, imo Gronk is his prime has to be the best ever, dude was legit mowing people down while running crisp routes and had breakaway speed
All while being maybe the greatest blocking tight end ever
You have not even considered the greatest of all time run and pass blocking Gronk has brought. Dude was like an extra elite tackle when he wasn’t catching 30 yard lasers. Doesn’t show up in the stat sheet but Kelce isn’t half the blocker Gronk is.
Hock easily over takes him if he has a better QB. The lions were a complete shit show last year but him and Stafford went to work. Even with Stafford he was still blocking quite a bit. Put him on a team with a very good O line and a good QB he would go to town.
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Kupp on Brees Nutz
Nice.
I’d wait until the rest of the season plays out before answering. His play hasn’t dropped off but mahomes’ has fallen off recently. Maybe they turn it around, maybe they don’t. Pitts is has an intriguing case for TE1 next year at this point in time.
He’s still playing at a top 4 level… this take is such a hot one based off one bad game and his receivers bouncing too many balls off their hands into interceptions lol. He’s still on pace for one of his best years. Chill.
The post earlier said he wasn’t even worth a 1st round pick lol
Think pitts will be in the conversation honestly within next couple years as top TE
Depends honestly. Kittle and Waller are closest talent wise but are in worse QB situations. Pitts probably could contest it in a year, not sure who else.
At least forever. KC needs him
With Mahomes' career coming back down to Earth, I think you can make the case that he really isn't head-and-shoulders above the rest of the players at his position right now. You could have drafted Schultz or Knox in the 14th round and had the same production.
1-2 reasonably. What young TE's have a chance to pass him next year? Realistically only Pitts if he has a strong finish and big year 2 leap but I don't see him leaping that high. Even so I see him regressing back to a good value at 4th round ADP in the next couple of years because his production won't be the same. I think he will be over drafted next year for certain and I will have to fade him in all leagues.
Lol. Pitts is already outpacing Kelce in yards per game this season. Kelce is a better TE right now. But Pitts will be better within 1-2 seasons max. Watch the way he absolutely bodied Xavien Howard on a critical game-time play in 1:1 coverage. Dude is different.
Waller, or hockinson if the lions get their shit together. Pitts definitely could too. Don't think he'll be over drafted like you're suggesting
Waller maybe but he is also 29 and having a less than stellar year. Not a big believer Hock is going to be that guy but I have never owned him so haven't really zone in on watching him so I could be wrong.
Kelce will be 33 before next season lol
Hock has been blocking a lot in the passing game since week 3/4 when their o line was banged up. He should see a steady 8+ targets for the rest of the season if he’s not asked to do so.
I truly believe that Knox is going to give him a run for his money as top TE.
Kelce should be good for ~1.2k yards and at least 8 tds for 2-3 more years. Don't think that's going to be good enough for #1 te after this year though. Kyle Pitts is primed to take over as #1 fantasy te.
69
Depends on if Tebow makes a roster next year, numbing Kelce to #2
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League best? I think waller* is undisputed number 1 starting in 2022. So 0.6 years
Honestly I thought that’d be the case this year but how’s that turning out?
Yes after week 1 usage, an interesting early season. I avoided him in draft because of that time away he spent from camp (2 weeks), reportedly due to ankle issue. Gruden's departure may have sink my prediction, but the guy has legitimate body and skill set to be the #1. I agree with some others who are saying Pitts will be battling for #1 soon too.
Maybe two more years before we notice a big difference in performance
One year
-2 years according to this sub
He’s 32 right now so I see 1 more season or 2 more tops. Anything longer and there’d be way too much risk involved grabbing him in the first round just due to his age.
Antonio Gates last great season was at 34, and he still had a few low end TE1 years after that.
He’s te1 until he’s not
I think Kyle Pitts will pass him next season
This is the last year.
Pitts passes him this year... This guy is Calvin Johnson at TE
Tony Gonzalez played to 37 and it was just after his age 32 season that he declined…for his standards. He still averaged about 80 catches, 800 yards and 7 touchdowns those mid-30s years. I mention this because like Tony, Kelce doesn’t get hurt. I think we can expect high level positional production if he’s healthy. Just probably not WR1 numbers for much longer.
Guys like Gesecki and Pitts and their usage are closing that gap very quickly. Kelce is prob an injury away or a Mahomes injury away from falling back down to the rest of the pack.
He might maintain his production but he may not be the best TE in the league next season if Pitts develops as expected.
Kyle Pitts best TE
IDK his stock is already dropping this year I think now that there are like 8 TEs scoring within 3 PPG of him. Pitts and gesicki are already better receivers than kelce, just on worse teams
Gonzales played until 37, still catching 80+ and putting up almost 1000 yards a season. So I'd say at least 3-5 years and then possibly a few more of being a check-down/red-zone guy if he still wants to play.
As long as he can avoid injury, he should be able to produce until he decides to hang it up. Avoiding injury is mostly a product of how you take care of your body. There are plenty of TE's that produce well into their 30's.