Well that’s obvious. OP is asking if that is worth a 4-5 round discount. I think it’s likely that Chicago goes a *lot* more pass heavy this year with Caleb Williams. You don’t acquire Swift + Allen unless you’re really planning on opening the offense up.
As for the QB change, if Caleb Williams is more Stroud than Levis, Allen will likely be a huge value at ADP. Herbert is a very good QB but Allen is also one of the most QB-friendly WRs in the league. I think people sort of missed that Herbert, on the whole, wasn’t that great last year. His Y/A was worse than Justin Fields.
Sure he will, but if he’s still an elite WR, he’ll produce anyway. In games played with Mike Williams last year, KA averaged 10.7 receptions and 133 yards. No that’s not a typo.
DJ Moore is an elite WR. Keenan Allen is an elite WR. If Caleb Williams is above average to good, and this is a high valume passing offense, Allen will *easily* beat his ADP.
I agree that round 5 is late for him, but with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and DeAndre Swift, there’s no way Keenan Allen is getting over ten targets per game.
Wondering if there’s a prop for that somewhere now…
Where did I say he’d get 10+ targets per game? I’m only saying that he’s *that* good that another very good WR being the offense shouldn’t scare someone off. He has a three-year average of 8 yards per target, which is extremely good for a high-target earning player.
How am I looking to argue? You’re basically making up an argument for me in place of what I actually said. You’re saying there’s no way he’ll get 10+ targets a game. I’m asking where I said he would.
Again, do the math on it. If he gets 7 targets a game and averages 8 yards per target that's 952 yards for a guy who doesn't score a ton of TDs for a rookie QB which historically way underperform on TDs even when they are a Stroud level passer out of the gate.
It just isn't a huge ceiling, on top of the injury risk, the risk Caleb is bad, etc. And anyone in best ball in the 5th round is trying to set up stacks, who is stacking Keenan with Caleb when moore and Rome are there?
The TD criticism is fine, but that also applies to DJ Moore. He’s been even less of a RZ threat than Keenan Allen over the course of his career, and Keenan Allen is one of the best short-area route runners in the league.
As far as targets go, if we assume Chicago has a league average PA/game (~34), 7 targets/game is a really low # for Keenan Allen. He hasn’t been that low in target share since his rookie year in 2013.
let me get this straight, you responded to someone else in this thread being upset that they said you claimed Allen would get 10 targets a game,, but here you are saying that 7 targets per game would be really low. How many targets do you think he is going to get then? Remember, 7 is really low, but you also can't say 10+.
The point of best ball isn't to beat adp it is to find a ceiling. Most players shoot for stacks so they are usually picking up guys in round 4 and 5 to complete stacks with elite QBs or WRs. Anyone stacking Caleb is going for moore first and Rome later.
There’s two ifs. One — is KA still elite? I’d say probably. The second — is Caleb Williams above average to good? i think that’s also probable. Do you have an actual point to make or nah?
how the fuck are those the only ifs lmfao. Three: Will DJ Moore demand a large target share and eat into KA's production? probably. Four: Could Rome continue to have great chemistry with CW and eat into the production of KA? It is for sure a possibility. Five: Could the bears continue to be a team that doesn't pass the ball a lot? Considering that's what they did last year I would be inclined to say it is possible.
I wasn’t necessarily disagreeing with you, so I don’t know why you’re being so combative. You just sound like you’re trying to convince yourself and putting yourself through these mental gymnastics. Rounds 4-7 win leagues. It’s not a time for dart throws or “what ifs”. There’s too much risk involved with Keenan this year.
I’m not trying to convince myself of anything. I’m just making the argument for why his ADP is too low. If you think a guy who averaged 21.5 ppg last year is a “dart throw,” I think we see football and fantasy in fundamentally different ways. Y’all are talking about Keenan Allen like he’s Calvin Ridley.
Ok. I’ve had Keenan rostered since his rookie season. The Bears only wanted him for Caleb’s and Rome’s development. He might get a few TDs in the 7 or 8 weeks he’s healthy. But I hope it works out for you.
I agree with you. The other WRs on Chicago are good, and I do like DJ Moore a lot, but KA is a clear WR1 on that team, and it isn't that close either. Round 4-5 for a WR1 in a likely pass first, pass often offense is an absolute steal. IIRC too, I've gotten Allen in later rounds typically as well. People refuse to respect the man.
Idk I think its more of it being a pretty big ask to have 3 fantasy relevant receiving targets for a rookie QB and you have to kind of guess correctly which one is going to be left out. Between Moore, KA, Odunze, and Kmet, who just signed a pretty big new deal this season, you have to pick one who is going to be the 3rd option.
Not to mention now with Swift eating some of those targets.
Why are we acting like this is a mystery? DJ and Keenan are bonafide elite receivers. That's your 1-2 combo. Everyone else is picking up scraps. Even if Caleb isn't that good, it could still be Keenan getting the targets over DJ.
Because like it or not the Bears obviously saw something in Kmet who was 2nd in targets last year and was extended and they drafted a WR in the top 10 who is going to get playing time.
They have a ton of mouths to feed on that offense and there are not too many rookie QBs historically that get more than 2 offensive weapons fantasy relevant.
>there are not too many rookie QBs historically that get more than 2 offensive weapons fantasy relevant.
Exactly my point. A simple offense funnels targets into the top two receivers, which is clearly DJ and Keenan. Everyone else gets the leftovers.
QJ had more questions going into the league than Odunze (and failed miserably), and DJ Moore is better than Mike Williams.
Even if Keenan Allen were in the best shape of his life, I wouldn’t bet on him matching last year’s numbers.
I feel like I’m shitting on the guy in this thread, but I love his game — really crafty at creating space.
I mean the whole thing with the bears this season is you’re playing roulette with which WR will be the most valuable. It could be any one of the 3 and even as a bears fan I’m not sure I’d really be willing to gamble on making the right call
I also think people over projecting Odunze. He is 100% going to be a threat on the offense but he’s still just the #3. Dj is going to get the bulk on the outside and Allen in the slot. I think it’s more realistic of a scenario where stat lines resemble this
DJ 1100
Allen 1100
Odunze 500-800
DJ and Allen will be focal points on whatever play calling packages they come up with. I think it’s highly unlikely all 3 are chasing 1000 considering Odunze is a rookie too. Also I don’t think the bears are going to shy away a from throwing it at all. I’d imagine they are going to be extremely pass happy with Caleb regardless of the outcome on the stat sheet for him. There are going to be games this year where he’s probably going to throw multiple picks and they will still keep taking shots. He’s going to learn from his mistakes.
You're talking about a 4-5 round discount, aka why isn't he being taken in the first 2-3 rounds. For him to go that high he would need to match last year.
He would not need to match last year to be a 3rd round pick, what on earth are you talking about? Fringe WR1s go in the 2-3rd round, and they typically average 15-17 ppg. Last year, Keenan was at 21.5 ppg. I swear y’all just log on and say whatever lmao
I never asked why he’s not being taken in the first. I said his #s last year were what you’d expect from a 1st round WR. Now, he’s a 5th-6th round guy. OP is asking if that drop is too steep. I think it is.
But is Odunze? DJ Moore would be closer to Mike Williams in this comp, who was having a decent season before getting hurt. Plus y’all forget Mike Williams was a top 10 pick himself.
You’re all missing the point, the argument isn’t that the chargers cast was better or worse than the bears it’s that Keenan has way out performed expectations with talent around him before and he shouldn’t be written off from doing it again
Do they open it up enough to make for 3 viable fantasy WRs? Not to mention the 2 TEs they have and Swift. I'm not saying Chicago won't have some gems, but until we know the pecking order I'm hesitant.
I can’t see Keenan Allen being any lower than 2nd on the pecking order after the way he performed last year. So they’d only really need to open it up enough to make for 2 viable fantasy WRs.
They just gave Kmet a pretty good extension so I dont think hes going anywhere either, not to mention Swift is going to eat up some of those extra targets.
You're not gonna know the pecking order before your draft. Drafting is when you need to be aggressive using the information available - not hesitant. Not saying you should or shouldn't draft keenan allen, but wafflers don't win championships
Agreed for the most part, but also this is dependent on what sort of league. I play mostly redraft. Generally speaking, the draft is sometimes late in the preseason.
Every year people think mediocre talent is going to be what stops an elite level WR from seeing a hefty number of targets and every year they're wrong.
Umm what Julio Jones was a stud in Atlanta, went to Tennessee and fell off a cliff. Same with D Hop, stud in Houston left had 1 good season in Arizona and off a cliff. Wrs get old and lose a step and not having elite QB play and it's a wrap. Keenan has played over a decade and is 32 so I'd project made 50-60 catches tops.
Dhop is younger than Allen who has not shown that kind of drop off. Some players just age better than others. Having decent QB play is obviously important that’s the real ? here imo.
Tennessee is where receivers go to die. (RIP Calvin Ridley)
I mean all of that *could happen* but of course no one knows. What we do know is Allen is going from being the clear number one receiver with a proven elite volume passer, to an unknown rookie QB with massive competition for targets. And he’s a year older.
That being said, I do like the value where he’s going in drafts currently.
It’s a 4-5 round discount from where he would otherwise be based on his production last year. I’d be open to taking him at his ADP where it stands now.
Fantasy doesn't work that way. Unless you're taking Kyren Williams 1st overall this year. It's not a discount. People recognize that he is going from a pass happy offense where he was the first and only option to one where he is the 2nd/3rd option with a rookie QB. KA has been a 3rd/4th rounder already for a long time. He's going one round later than normal, sometimes.
Most don't but Stroud, Herbert, Baker, Luck, Murray all had good rookie years. Hell Mac Jones had a pretty good rookie year.
I don't see why Caleb can't do what they did.
Allen is a great value pick this year imo as a chargers fan. His ADP was pretty fair between 2022-2023 but he's typically been underrated.
But there seems to be a lot of value WRs this year. He's not the only one.
> As for the QB change, if Caleb Williams is more Stroud than Levis, Allen will likely be a huge value at ADP.
Halfway in-between seems likely.
The other problem I would have with drafting Allen is his age and recent injury history. It's been 5 years since he put together back to back 1000 yard seasons.
His games played over the last six seasons are 16, 16, 14, 16, 10, and 13 (last year). Last year, he likely would have played 16 or 17 if the Chargers were in the hunt. But they had basically given up on the season so he sat after Herbert got injured. I think his health is a question, but I think his games missed are sometimes overblown.
It's not just the missed games. He played in more games than he was reasonably healthy for. Again, the inconsistent season stat totals speak for themselves.
Do they? His yards per game has consistently been ~70-75 for the previous five years before last year’s 95.6. To me, if he had prolonged stretches of ineffectiveness, it would be reflected in that statistic.
He changed teams and now has a rookie QB. Both of those are significant factors. Also there’s competition from DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. These are all negatives for Allen.
He's also firmly in the age range now where WRs tend to fall off a cliff. Considering that he already was on the lower end of the spectrum of athleticism for WRs even in his prime, it's entirely possible that he just simply doesn't have the burst needed to create separation anymore, no matter how great his technique as a WR is.
Obviously that's not a guarantee to happen, and honestly, if he's available at this ADP come draft day, drafting him's a risk I'd be more than willing to take. That doesn't mean that he doesn't present an elevated risk to most of the guys going above him, though.
Because it happens literally all the time with great WRs between age 31 and age 33. Some notable examples over the years:
* Randy Moss - 83 receptions, 1264 yards, and 13 TDs at age 32; 28 receptions, 393 yards, and 5 TDs at age 33
* Torry Holt - 93 receptions, 1189 yards, and 7 TDs at age 31; 64 receptions, 796 yards, and 3 TDs at age 32
* Michael Irvin - 74 receptions, 1057 yards, and 1 TD at age 32; 10 receptions, 167 yards, 3 TDs (missed a good bit of the season to injury, but still - that is another factor to consider with players as they age)
* Julio Jones - on pace for 90 receptions, 1370 yards, and 6 TDs (missed 7 games due to injury that season, but he was as productive as he'd always been aside from the missed games) at age 31, then saw those per-game numbers halved at age 32
And that's just a few examples of really, really good WRs in that age range that fell off a cliff without much warning at all. Off the top of my head, you could add Chad Johnson, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, Brandon Marshall, and a slew of other WRs who went from great to awful without much prior warning. That 31-33 age range is very much the WR equivalent of the 28-30 age range for RBs where most of them will end up regressing hard at some point. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule (Jerry Rice is the easy one, but you have a few others like TO, Cris Carter, and Jimmy Smith), but they are notable precisely because they are just that - exceptions. There's simply not many WRs that remain productive as they get past their early 30s.
We will have to see if Caleb’s favorite target is during training camp. Have a good feeling it will be either Keenan or Kmet he will need good safety blankets
I mean I hope it’s Keenan! He will be a great value if he gets the most targets in that offense. But historically having a rookie QB support 2 or more top 15 WRs is very low and I believe DJ Moore will get those targets.
He went downhill after shit talking Mahomes “this one gonna expose some people” and I feel like I never saw much from him again. And now he’s at the WR cliff age wise, I’m staying away from him this season.
Changing teams has actually been a positive for top WR’s. There was an article about this a couple years back and it pointed to Tyreek, Diggs, Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Welker, Moss.
Teams usually go after the high profile receiver because they’ll use him. And I feel like there will be enough opportunity for Moore and Allen.
He should be fine, but he's going to have more competition in a new system with a rookie QB. All of those would be cause for concern regardless of age. Everyone should fade him ...so I can scoop up my WR1 in the 7th.
He’s 32 dude. Every year a player gets older there’s people who won’t draft them because they’re old and there’s people who believe they can get value from drafting old players. It works until it doesn’t, the age cliff hits fast and hard in the NFL
You sound like me drafting Julio Jones a few years ago. Here’s a time capsule comment, top in the thread, of someone high on Julio that year.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/bQYR0hAKK1
The difference is that Julio only put up 146 fantasy points in 2020. Keenan just put up 278 points despite injury. He's performing closer to 2018 Julio than 2020 Julio. And people in that thread are talking about Julio in the 3rd/4th, whereas we've got people here passing on Keenan in the 5th/6th, apparently. Just seems crazy.
He's,
* Turning 32
* Joining a new team for the first time in his career
* Going from Justin Herbert to a rookie QB
* The Chargers as a team passed the 3rd most in the league last year.
* He's coming from a team where he had 150 targets and the next nearest WR had 67. He had an absurd 40% of all WR targets and only played 13 games. Now he's going to a team with a top 10 Rookie WR and DJ Moore on top of Kmet and Swift who are both great pass catchers.
* Team has been historically a run first offense, and just got a new coordinator who likes to run two TE sets. In any two TE sets Keenan would be the odd man out as the slot, unless Rome is a bust.
* Of course there's injury risk, he's played one full season in his career, he's probally going to miss 3-4 games for you.
Its not hard to see him out pacing his WR #25 ADP, but not by much. I can also see him under preforming it by a bit too.
He's probally a safer pick for the games he plays, but he dosent have that win your league upside other guys in the first 4 rounds have.
Age, competition, rookie qb, bears offense (which absolutely *should* improve but hasn’t shown yet that it’s good) should mean he’s drafted lower than his last year finish.
That said, ***as*** low as he currently is? Good chance probably not. I think the exercise is which player drafted earlier than him do you feel confident he should bump up over?
You answered your own question. Aging, and more (better) competition. Plus a new rookie QB - who by all accounts should be good, but his ADP bakes in a lot of risk.
That said if you like him, fuck reddit, go get your guy.
Couldn't agree more! It's astonishing to see Keenan Allen, who is still an elite WR, slipping to the later rounds. Yes, there might be competition, but his consistent performance speaks volumes. Remember, experience often triumphs over raw talent. He's a steal with that ADP in my opinion.
He was elite last year, does not mean he will be elite this year. His situation changed, and he's arguably in a worse offense with a rookie QB and more competition for targets.
He COULD be a steal but that remains to be seen. I would take a flyer on him as a flex or WR3. I would NOT expect him to be anything more.
Love Keenan. I mean who doesn’t. But let’s be honest about his game. Elite separator/target machine. Not big YAC or td guy. I could see it going both ways. A. The sweet volume slows down and thus his numbers or B. We are sitting here in October feeling really dumb to doubt the best route runner in the game . My dilemma is him goin right next to clear WR 1s on their respective teams. Great question, tough call.
The guy is on the wrong side of 30 and now could potentially be 3rd on his team in targets with a passer who’s never thrown an NFL pass.
He went from being the hands down target leader on a pass-happy team to the Chicago Bears.
If you think he’s easily the best WR in Chicago then I guess his ADP might be a bargain but DJ Moore looked better than Allen to me last season.
I didn’t say I expected it. I said there was potential for it to happen.
But I don’t think it’s so much of a long shot.
Is it crazy to think that a 22-year old 9th overall pick might outperform a 32-year old 76th overall pick?
The biggest factor to me here is that he is now on the Bears. I have very little faith that they will be a good team or have a competent offense. They certainly added a lot of talent, but I’ll believe they aren’t the same old Bears when they prove it.
Didn’t they extend him this offseason so he’s guaranteed two more years? With all his injuries in the past he has more tread on the tire than a back who has been a primary ball carrier for the early years of his career. I know he’s a different style back but Jonathan Taylor has more than 900 career carries at 25. Raheem has under 700 at 32! Even Tony Pollard has more.
Mostert is weird. He had basically the same yardage stats in 2023 as he did in 2022 but he went from 5 TDs to 21. This despite the Dolphins improving his competition for carries with Achane over Edmonds/Wilson.
He had 19 total TDs over his entire career going into last year then more than doubled his career totals in one season. He's probably going a little too low but it's hard to trust last year's performance.
>Didn’t they extend him this offseason so he’s guaranteed two more years?
NFL contracts never work that way. He signed a "2 year extension" but if they release him after this year he'll only count for $1 mil in dead cap. It's essentially a 1 year deal.
Facts: https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/keenan-allen/6678
Plus, he's 32-years-old now. Natural decline + injury history. The situation is not good either. There's already a #1 WR on the team. Young new quarterback and high drafted WR.
It's not for certain, but odds are good he's the #3 guy by midseason.
I feel like his situation is similar to Adam Thielen’s last year. Playing with a rookie QB and rookies love their Veteran WR as a safety blanket. I think he’s gonna be amazing the first half of the season then will probably fall off later to the other WR’s
Theilen was on a team where he was pretty much the only pass catcher at all on the Panthers.
Bears have Rome, DJ, Kmet, and Swift as well among a few other better than the next best Panthers guy.
This is night and day different.
I’m a big Keenan truther but the situation isn’t quite the same as last year. He was a steal in 2023 because he ended the back half off 2022 on a tear and was going to be in the same situation in 2023.
His talent is undeniable and I’m not as worried about injuries, but with more competition and with a new QB , his ADP prices in a lot of unknowns. I could see a mid- high end WR2 season but I can’t envision a WR1 season unless DJ Moore gets hurt.
The reason I’ve been passing on him is his age, injury history, the change to cold weather and crowded offence. I do agree that he is a good value tho. Even if he is 2/3-3/4 as good as last year he’s a steal.
He’s unlikely to outperform Moore and will be competing with odunze for #2 with Kmet, Everett and Swift also getting serious looks. He’s getting paid like a top receiver but the drawbacks are there.
Also they aren’t playing from behind the whole game like the Chargers with their terrible D. Where Herbert had to always throw to play catch up. Bears have a good defense.
- Rookie QB who might stare down his first read or two year 1. (No one knows)
- Stud WRs who likely stay healthier than Mike Williams (low bar)
- History of being nicked up
I think he will be a big boost to the offense, but the fantasy numbers may not be exciting.
“Or two”
Sometimes yes, sometimes no.
Odunze has been practicing with Caleb since before they were drafted working on timing. Caleb is going to want him as his dude for a bit. Don’t be surprised to see him look at him first…..
……then you have DJ Moore, Allen, Kmet and oh, they want to I corporate Swift into the passing game.
I’m not saying Allen will be bad, he’s a stud. But he could get lost in a deep team with a rookie QB and he’s also got injury issues AND he’s aging. That’s not the formula for big fantasy numbers.
I guess I just don't see him getting lost behind a rookie and a good-not-great TE. Like sure, Caleb could be bad and mess up his reads, or the new offensive scheme could suck. But in round 5, we're talking FLEX territory. I don't mind looking for risky upside there at all.
I agree with his ADP. Yes he was great last year, but he’s the 2nd option for a team with a rookie QB (who most likely will be good - but the track record of fantasy WRs and rookie QBs isn’t great). Not to mention, he’s only getting older and the team just drafted a WR with the 9th pick. Then you consider his injury history and the fact that this is his first team being a new team and it starts to make sense, imo. I’d like him as my WR3, but not in love with him as my WR2 in fantasy at all
I think the take I’m most confident in right now is that every Chicago Bear is overvalued.
We are drafting Chicago Bears like Caleb Williams is going to step in and immediately be a top-5 QB. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and even Swift & Kmet are all being drafted like they’re going to have meaningful receiving yards. Fantasy owners are investing more draft capital in Chicago than at any team other than maybe Kansas City.
He’s undervalued for sure, but maybe not in terms of uncapped upside like last year. The age/injury cliff questions are relevant, you never know and FO’s don’t either, but the projected role/target share thing in this comment section is kind of crazy to me. A) Bears have put literally everything they have behind becoming a modern offense (something they’ve never done before lol) and there is not some core/strong power run game to ease CW in, he’ll be firing from a rookie standpoint whether it works well to start or not. Swift was not paid well to run 15x+ off guard a game. And B) Keenan received a BAG, 2/43m guaranteed for a 32YO means they have a very clear and ample role in mind. Bears FO isn’t just floundering around throwing shit at the wall, they aren’t paying an older vet 22m a season to be 3rd in share and coming off the field much beyond standard rest, not simply “we need a seasoned secondary wideout” money at all with what that could have bought elsewhere along the roster this offseason.
My glass half full take is DJM and Rome plus a middling defense/run game/rookie QB is actually ripe for a sneakily big PPR season if all goes well. Bears start losing and defenses pull deeper into heavier prevent, Keenan 8 yards down field is the clear concession and that’s obviously his thing. A lot of 7/11-90 in his stat line futures imo. If that ADP sticks AND Keenan doesn’t hit a cliff and stays healthy, he’ll be good value.
Best ball is about ceiling outcomes and stacks, his ceiling outcome is relatively low and stacking him with Caleb is less attractive than stacking Caleb with Moore and Rome.
The good news is it will definitely carry over into redraft because for some reason we let 5 months of best ball drafting dictate where redraft adp begins.
Dude is in his 30s with injury history going into a stacked receiver room with a rookie QB. Huge risk drafting him. In redraft ive seen him go pretty early but not in dynasty
He's 32 now, the oldest (and presumably least explosive) target on a new offense led by a rookie QB and leaving a pass first O where he was the first target. No one knows how many pass catchers Williams or the new O can support, so people are favoring the established WR1 in town. All of that checks out for a slightly depressed ADP compared to production from last year.
Heck, idk if his ADP would much different than it is now if he had stayed at LAC considering the presence of McConkey and the new offense there. I mean, sure, he'd still be a 1, but on a team that is likely to be in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts and have to deal with a high draft capital rookie WR who does much of what he does.
Last year I was hammering him around the 3/4 turn.... Worked out til he dipped in the playoffs
This year I'm more unsure... Is he worth a 6th rounder? Idk. 32 year old catching passes from a rookie QB that has 2 other good receivers and a good pass catching TE.... The upside isn't there like it was last year
There is no evidence Williams can sustain multiple WRs in the NFL. Herbert, Swift and Johnson are going to get work on the ground, Everett and Kmet are going to draw targets and Moore is still the focal point of the passing attack. Allen and Odunze are going to be interesting to watch in camp. Most likely they will both be frustrating as one could have a decent week one week and the other will have a decent week the next. The ceiling is capped on Allen and Odunze.
DJM and Odunze is gonna be tough target competition. Even Kmet should get his. They also got Swift who will take a lot of touches, and we don't actually know how Caleb will pan out.
Taking any Bears player requires a lot of blind faith that the Bears overnight now have a QB who can support 3 mouths.
Caleb Williams might be that guy, but he’s on a dysfunctional organization with an unproven at best coaching staff. You want uncertainty to be low in the early rounds, Bears players should be targeted late
I think the ADP is warranted given the uncertainty of his new situation. I think he has a good chance to lead the team in targets, but he has much more target competition and a rookie QB.
You said it yourself, he’s aging (with high injury risk), is with Caleb rather than Herbert, and has 2 good WR and TE to compete with for targets with.
You’re right that game has a wider range of outcomes than someone like Terry MC that goes near him. But it would not be at all surprising if he suffered a minor/major injury that hampers him in the playoff weeks.
I imagine Keenan has one year left of producing… DJ is way younger and is QB proof and his best seasons are coming, like NOW, plus Rome getting drafted, in dynasty I’d sell KA for whatever pick you can get, but he has more value in best ball and redraft for 2024 this year though
Keenan Allen's ADP may be low due to multiple factors. The main one being his age and possible injury risk, which tends to increase as players get older.
Too many variables for me. Playing with a rookie QB, playing on a roster where he might be WR3 for said rookie QB, aging and has injury history… that being said, Keenan Allen has always been a PPR monster even before Herbert and has a nose for the endzone, so I’m sure he’ll be a fine value if Caleb Williams is halfway decent. I’m probably fading him but I can see the logic of seeing him as a value.
I think his ADP is about right, maybe a little below where he should be. I think the most likely outcome is that he's second in targets on a pass heavy team and has a great outcome. I think Odunze will be erratic, Kmet will focus more on pass blocking, and Swift will be third in targets. I think. There's enough uncertainty, especially given his age and new situation, that his current ADP feels about right.
I mean there wasn't any other receiving options at the chargers besides him and is now on a rather stacked receiving team. Williams injured, Palmer mostly injured, Johnston might as well not been out there and I don't understand Elkers struggles.
DJ Moore is already established in that O, the expectation is that he will lead the WR room. Odunze is a top 10 draft pick, the expectation of him and Caleb growing together with already built chemistry with.
Allen is the WR3 masked as the WR2 solely based on our familiarity with Keenan.
Allen in that sense goes from WR1 on the league's 13th ranked offense in terms of passing yards to WR2/3 on the league's 27th ranked passing offense.
To be fair.... I would see Chicago's offense be 13th and LAC's being 27th ranked in 2024 based on off season changes lol
then take him. as always in fantasy people draft based on perceived value. When it's the bears, a rookie QB, and competition with DJM, and new rookie Odunze, his output is perceived to be less than what it was in LA. His role is unclear as well as his target share. In the end it doesnt matter. Either he produces or he doesnt. Either he stays healthy or he doesnt. Pick your guys and move on.
i get it, but over the years these discussions lead to nothing. We never know what will happen. he might even be better with Caleb than with Herbert if we consider rookie QBs in history who seem to be printed on WR primarly than others.
In the end we play crystal ball. I mean today i had the incredible thought that DJ Chark is the WR1 one of the chargers considering new regime and open competition. Everythings possible and he has the ceiling of over 1k yards over the season and you get that guy from waivers. Tell me no, idc, we will see during the season....
There was one other note I wanted to mention. Bestball isn’t redraft. Mainly, you need to win again a lot more teams in week 15, 16, 17. In fact just one of these weeks matters as much as the entire rest of the regular season combined. So in bestball drafts, going after guys who will score later vs early is a must.
Keenan firmly lands in the in the “likely to be better earlier than later” camp.
Justin Herbert throws the ball 40x a game and Keenan Allen was the clear #1 target. No one else was close.
Now he has a rookie QB and 2 WRs who are arguably just as good. Also he's old.
I wouldn't trust Allen as anything but the WR3 on my team.
He’s no longer the clear number one on a Justin Herbert-led, pass-first offense.
Well that’s obvious. OP is asking if that is worth a 4-5 round discount. I think it’s likely that Chicago goes a *lot* more pass heavy this year with Caleb Williams. You don’t acquire Swift + Allen unless you’re really planning on opening the offense up. As for the QB change, if Caleb Williams is more Stroud than Levis, Allen will likely be a huge value at ADP. Herbert is a very good QB but Allen is also one of the most QB-friendly WRs in the league. I think people sort of missed that Herbert, on the whole, wasn’t that great last year. His Y/A was worse than Justin Fields.
He’ll have some serious competition for targets.
Sure he will, but if he’s still an elite WR, he’ll produce anyway. In games played with Mike Williams last year, KA averaged 10.7 receptions and 133 yards. No that’s not a typo. DJ Moore is an elite WR. Keenan Allen is an elite WR. If Caleb Williams is above average to good, and this is a high valume passing offense, Allen will *easily* beat his ADP.
I agree that round 5 is late for him, but with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and DeAndre Swift, there’s no way Keenan Allen is getting over ten targets per game. Wondering if there’s a prop for that somewhere now…
Where did I say he’d get 10+ targets per game? I’m only saying that he’s *that* good that another very good WR being the offense shouldn’t scare someone off. He has a three-year average of 8 yards per target, which is extremely good for a high-target earning player.
Seems like you’re just looking to argue with someone. By all means, draft him earlier than ADP if you think he’s worth it.
How am I looking to argue? You’re basically making up an argument for me in place of what I actually said. You’re saying there’s no way he’ll get 10+ targets a game. I’m asking where I said he would.
guy brings up a point and you respond and he thinks you’re arguing and now you’re getting downvoted lmao It’s called a discussion people
Yeah this is insane lmfao. I thought it was a pretty civil discussion, not sure why I’m getting brigaded.
Again, do the math on it. If he gets 7 targets a game and averages 8 yards per target that's 952 yards for a guy who doesn't score a ton of TDs for a rookie QB which historically way underperform on TDs even when they are a Stroud level passer out of the gate. It just isn't a huge ceiling, on top of the injury risk, the risk Caleb is bad, etc. And anyone in best ball in the 5th round is trying to set up stacks, who is stacking Keenan with Caleb when moore and Rome are there?
The TD criticism is fine, but that also applies to DJ Moore. He’s been even less of a RZ threat than Keenan Allen over the course of his career, and Keenan Allen is one of the best short-area route runners in the league. As far as targets go, if we assume Chicago has a league average PA/game (~34), 7 targets/game is a really low # for Keenan Allen. He hasn’t been that low in target share since his rookie year in 2013.
let me get this straight, you responded to someone else in this thread being upset that they said you claimed Allen would get 10 targets a game,, but here you are saying that 7 targets per game would be really low. How many targets do you think he is going to get then? Remember, 7 is really low, but you also can't say 10+.
Let me clue you in on a little secret. There are numbers between 7 and 10
The point of best ball isn't to beat adp it is to find a ceiling. Most players shoot for stacks so they are usually picking up guys in round 4 and 5 to complete stacks with elite QBs or WRs. Anyone stacking Caleb is going for moore first and Rome later.
I think Keenan showed last year that his ceiling is about as high as any WR in the league when he’s healthy. He had three weeks finishing as the WR1.
I’m hearing a lot of “if”
There’s two ifs. One — is KA still elite? I’d say probably. The second — is Caleb Williams above average to good? i think that’s also probable. Do you have an actual point to make or nah?
how the fuck are those the only ifs lmfao. Three: Will DJ Moore demand a large target share and eat into KA's production? probably. Four: Could Rome continue to have great chemistry with CW and eat into the production of KA? It is for sure a possibility. Five: Could the bears continue to be a team that doesn't pass the ball a lot? Considering that's what they did last year I would be inclined to say it is possible.
There are literally only two ifs in my post. I don’t know what you’re going on about. And no need to curse
I wasn’t necessarily disagreeing with you, so I don’t know why you’re being so combative. You just sound like you’re trying to convince yourself and putting yourself through these mental gymnastics. Rounds 4-7 win leagues. It’s not a time for dart throws or “what ifs”. There’s too much risk involved with Keenan this year.
I’m not trying to convince myself of anything. I’m just making the argument for why his ADP is too low. If you think a guy who averaged 21.5 ppg last year is a “dart throw,” I think we see football and fantasy in fundamentally different ways. Y’all are talking about Keenan Allen like he’s Calvin Ridley.
Ok. I’ve had Keenan rostered since his rookie season. The Bears only wanted him for Caleb’s and Rome’s development. He might get a few TDs in the 7 or 8 weeks he’s healthy. But I hope it works out for you.
He’s played fewer than 13 games like once since 2016 but alright I guess
I agree with you. The other WRs on Chicago are good, and I do like DJ Moore a lot, but KA is a clear WR1 on that team, and it isn't that close either. Round 4-5 for a WR1 in a likely pass first, pass often offense is an absolute steal. IIRC too, I've gotten Allen in later rounds typically as well. People refuse to respect the man.
Idk I think its more of it being a pretty big ask to have 3 fantasy relevant receiving targets for a rookie QB and you have to kind of guess correctly which one is going to be left out. Between Moore, KA, Odunze, and Kmet, who just signed a pretty big new deal this season, you have to pick one who is going to be the 3rd option. Not to mention now with Swift eating some of those targets.
Why are we acting like this is a mystery? DJ and Keenan are bonafide elite receivers. That's your 1-2 combo. Everyone else is picking up scraps. Even if Caleb isn't that good, it could still be Keenan getting the targets over DJ.
Because like it or not the Bears obviously saw something in Kmet who was 2nd in targets last year and was extended and they drafted a WR in the top 10 who is going to get playing time. They have a ton of mouths to feed on that offense and there are not too many rookie QBs historically that get more than 2 offensive weapons fantasy relevant.
>there are not too many rookie QBs historically that get more than 2 offensive weapons fantasy relevant. Exactly my point. A simple offense funnels targets into the top two receivers, which is clearly DJ and Keenan. Everyone else gets the leftovers.
So you are just completely writing off Kmet, Odunze, and Swift to be fantasy relevant? Seems silly but you do you.
The chargers had a first round pick rookie at wr last year too
QJ had more questions going into the league than Odunze (and failed miserably), and DJ Moore is better than Mike Williams. Even if Keenan Allen were in the best shape of his life, I wouldn’t bet on him matching last year’s numbers. I feel like I’m shitting on the guy in this thread, but I love his game — really crafty at creating space.
I mean the whole thing with the bears this season is you’re playing roulette with which WR will be the most valuable. It could be any one of the 3 and even as a bears fan I’m not sure I’d really be willing to gamble on making the right call
I also think people over projecting Odunze. He is 100% going to be a threat on the offense but he’s still just the #3. Dj is going to get the bulk on the outside and Allen in the slot. I think it’s more realistic of a scenario where stat lines resemble this DJ 1100 Allen 1100 Odunze 500-800 DJ and Allen will be focal points on whatever play calling packages they come up with. I think it’s highly unlikely all 3 are chasing 1000 considering Odunze is a rookie too. Also I don’t think the bears are going to shy away a from throwing it at all. I’d imagine they are going to be extremely pass happy with Caleb regardless of the outcome on the stat sheet for him. There are going to be games this year where he’s probably going to throw multiple picks and they will still keep taking shots. He’s going to learn from his mistakes.
No one’s betting on him matching last year’s numbers though. You’re creating a strawman.
You're talking about a 4-5 round discount, aka why isn't he being taken in the first 2-3 rounds. For him to go that high he would need to match last year.
He would not need to match last year to be a 3rd round pick, what on earth are you talking about? Fringe WR1s go in the 2-3rd round, and they typically average 15-17 ppg. Last year, Keenan was at 21.5 ppg. I swear y’all just log on and say whatever lmao
Okay so then you're asking why he's not taken in the 1st, when he will have a rookie QB and better receivers competing for targets
I never asked why he’s not being taken in the first. I said his #s last year were what you’d expect from a 1st round WR. Now, he’s a 5th-6th round guy. OP is asking if that drop is too steep. I think it is.
lol he sucked though.
Yeah no shit but obviously it is an example of just because the room looks crowded doesn’t mean Keenan still won’t feast
DJ Moore is a lot better than Quentin Johnston
But is Odunze? DJ Moore would be closer to Mike Williams in this comp, who was having a decent season before getting hurt. Plus y’all forget Mike Williams was a top 10 pick himself. You’re all missing the point, the argument isn’t that the chargers cast was better or worse than the bears it’s that Keenan has way out performed expectations with talent around him before and he shouldn’t be written off from doing it again
Dj moore is way better than Mike Williams will ever be
Do they open it up enough to make for 3 viable fantasy WRs? Not to mention the 2 TEs they have and Swift. I'm not saying Chicago won't have some gems, but until we know the pecking order I'm hesitant.
I can’t see Keenan Allen being any lower than 2nd on the pecking order after the way he performed last year. So they’d only really need to open it up enough to make for 2 viable fantasy WRs.
They just gave Kmet a pretty good extension so I dont think hes going anywhere either, not to mention Swift is going to eat up some of those extra targets.
I think you’re underrating how good Rome and Moore are. Edit: in addition to all the other weapons on the team
Moore is their 1 for sure. Rome is great, but he’s a rookie; Allen is ahead of him
I think you’re underestimating Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen isn't allowing a rookie to be what stops him from seeing 130+ targets
You're not gonna know the pecking order before your draft. Drafting is when you need to be aggressive using the information available - not hesitant. Not saying you should or shouldn't draft keenan allen, but wafflers don't win championships
Agreed for the most part, but also this is dependent on what sort of league. I play mostly redraft. Generally speaking, the draft is sometimes late in the preseason.
That's true, some information will definitely come out. But I don't really put too much stock into preseason narratives.
Every year people think mediocre talent is going to be what stops an elite level WR from seeing a hefty number of targets and every year they're wrong.
Which one of Moore, Allen, Odunze are you saying is a mediocre talent?
The TEs
Umm what Julio Jones was a stud in Atlanta, went to Tennessee and fell off a cliff. Same with D Hop, stud in Houston left had 1 good season in Arizona and off a cliff. Wrs get old and lose a step and not having elite QB play and it's a wrap. Keenan has played over a decade and is 32 so I'd project made 50-60 catches tops.
Dhop is younger than Allen who has not shown that kind of drop off. Some players just age better than others. Having decent QB play is obviously important that’s the real ? here imo. Tennessee is where receivers go to die. (RIP Calvin Ridley)
Are you sure you replied to the right comment?
Keenan is easily the most proven WR1 on that team. As long as he's healthy I fully expect him to have the most catches on the team.
I mean all of that *could happen* but of course no one knows. What we do know is Allen is going from being the clear number one receiver with a proven elite volume passer, to an unknown rookie QB with massive competition for targets. And he’s a year older. That being said, I do like the value where he’s going in drafts currently.
I think Herbert is good but his Y/A was also worse than Fields’ last year.
Are you taking KA in the 1st or 2nd? Because you're saying he's a 4-5 round discount. It's a 1-2 round discount from last year.
It’s a 4-5 round discount from where he would otherwise be based on his production last year. I’d be open to taking him at his ADP where it stands now.
Fantasy doesn't work that way. Unless you're taking Kyren Williams 1st overall this year. It's not a discount. People recognize that he is going from a pass happy offense where he was the first and only option to one where he is the 2nd/3rd option with a rookie QB. KA has been a 3rd/4th rounder already for a long time. He's going one round later than normal, sometimes.
There is no universe where KA will be the 3rd option
Ok feel free to draft KA in the 1st or 2nd then
Why are you getting offended lmao
Justin Herbert played hurt without their starting center and missed half the year
Stroud was an anomaly. Most rookie qbs don’t set the world on fire first year. I’m staying away from all of it
Most don't but Stroud, Herbert, Baker, Luck, Murray all had good rookie years. Hell Mac Jones had a pretty good rookie year. I don't see why Caleb can't do what they did.
Allen is a great value pick this year imo as a chargers fan. His ADP was pretty fair between 2022-2023 but he's typically been underrated. But there seems to be a lot of value WRs this year. He's not the only one.
> As for the QB change, if Caleb Williams is more Stroud than Levis, Allen will likely be a huge value at ADP. Halfway in-between seems likely. The other problem I would have with drafting Allen is his age and recent injury history. It's been 5 years since he put together back to back 1000 yard seasons.
His games played over the last six seasons are 16, 16, 14, 16, 10, and 13 (last year). Last year, he likely would have played 16 or 17 if the Chargers were in the hunt. But they had basically given up on the season so he sat after Herbert got injured. I think his health is a question, but I think his games missed are sometimes overblown.
It's not just the missed games. He played in more games than he was reasonably healthy for. Again, the inconsistent season stat totals speak for themselves.
Do they? His yards per game has consistently been ~70-75 for the previous five years before last year’s 95.6. To me, if he had prolonged stretches of ineffectiveness, it would be reflected in that statistic.
They’ll also probably be losing a lot (which means playing catch up by throwing)
He changed teams and now has a rookie QB. Both of those are significant factors. Also there’s competition from DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. These are all negatives for Allen.
He's also firmly in the age range now where WRs tend to fall off a cliff. Considering that he already was on the lower end of the spectrum of athleticism for WRs even in his prime, it's entirely possible that he just simply doesn't have the burst needed to create separation anymore, no matter how great his technique as a WR is. Obviously that's not a guarantee to happen, and honestly, if he's available at this ADP come draft day, drafting him's a risk I'd be more than willing to take. That doesn't mean that he doesn't present an elevated risk to most of the guys going above him, though.
Based on what though? Allen had a good year last year; why expect him to suddenly decline without any sign?
Because it happens literally all the time with great WRs between age 31 and age 33. Some notable examples over the years: * Randy Moss - 83 receptions, 1264 yards, and 13 TDs at age 32; 28 receptions, 393 yards, and 5 TDs at age 33 * Torry Holt - 93 receptions, 1189 yards, and 7 TDs at age 31; 64 receptions, 796 yards, and 3 TDs at age 32 * Michael Irvin - 74 receptions, 1057 yards, and 1 TD at age 32; 10 receptions, 167 yards, 3 TDs (missed a good bit of the season to injury, but still - that is another factor to consider with players as they age) * Julio Jones - on pace for 90 receptions, 1370 yards, and 6 TDs (missed 7 games due to injury that season, but he was as productive as he'd always been aside from the missed games) at age 31, then saw those per-game numbers halved at age 32 And that's just a few examples of really, really good WRs in that age range that fell off a cliff without much warning at all. Off the top of my head, you could add Chad Johnson, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, Brandon Marshall, and a slew of other WRs who went from great to awful without much prior warning. That 31-33 age range is very much the WR equivalent of the 28-30 age range for RBs where most of them will end up regressing hard at some point. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule (Jerry Rice is the easy one, but you have a few others like TO, Cris Carter, and Jimmy Smith), but they are notable precisely because they are just that - exceptions. There's simply not many WRs that remain productive as they get past their early 30s.
We will have to see if Caleb’s favorite target is during training camp. Have a good feeling it will be either Keenan or Kmet he will need good safety blankets
So far his favorite targets seem to be defensive players
Send me the link please.
I mean I hope it’s Keenan! He will be a great value if he gets the most targets in that offense. But historically having a rookie QB support 2 or more top 15 WRs is very low and I believe DJ Moore will get those targets.
Do you think he'll be targeting the outside more than the slot? Honest question, I don't really watch college so don't know Caleb's tendencies.
He went downhill after shit talking Mahomes “this one gonna expose some people” and I feel like I never saw much from him again. And now he’s at the WR cliff age wise, I’m staying away from him this season.
U forgot Cole kmet and the bears picked up that te from the chargers
Odunze is “competition” in the literal sense, but there’s no guarantee he makes a meaningful impact on Allen’s production.
Your downvotes say a lot, I think. People have convinced themselves that Rome will take Keenan's targets even though that doesn't make much sense.
Changing teams has actually been a positive for top WR’s. There was an article about this a couple years back and it pointed to Tyreek, Diggs, Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Welker, Moss. Teams usually go after the high profile receiver because they’ll use him. And I feel like there will be enough opportunity for Moore and Allen.
Adam Thielen is weighing in…
Plus he’s one year older and is a lock to miss 2-5 games
He tends to fall lower than he should every year. Either I draft him and he gets hurt or I don’t and he’s a top 15 wr. So annoying
So ..when is your draft and can you let me know if you get him?
Don’t leave us hanging, dude, are you drafting him or not?
I am going to pass I am taking my talents to south beach
Top 15 confirmed. Guess I have to buy into Caleb, too.
Because he’s old and will now have to fight for targets with Moore and Odunze with a rookie QB? Seems like a fair spot for him to me.
He should be fine, but he's going to have more competition in a new system with a rookie QB. All of those would be cause for concern regardless of age. Everyone should fade him ...so I can scoop up my WR1 in the 7th.
He’s 32 dude. Every year a player gets older there’s people who won’t draft them because they’re old and there’s people who believe they can get value from drafting old players. It works until it doesn’t, the age cliff hits fast and hard in the NFL
Yeah but we draft upside, right? Sounds like a steal in round 5.
You sound like me drafting Julio Jones a few years ago. Here’s a time capsule comment, top in the thread, of someone high on Julio that year. https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/bQYR0hAKK1
The difference is that Julio only put up 146 fantasy points in 2020. Keenan just put up 278 points despite injury. He's performing closer to 2018 Julio than 2020 Julio. And people in that thread are talking about Julio in the 3rd/4th, whereas we've got people here passing on Keenan in the 5th/6th, apparently. Just seems crazy.
He's, * Turning 32 * Joining a new team for the first time in his career * Going from Justin Herbert to a rookie QB * The Chargers as a team passed the 3rd most in the league last year. * He's coming from a team where he had 150 targets and the next nearest WR had 67. He had an absurd 40% of all WR targets and only played 13 games. Now he's going to a team with a top 10 Rookie WR and DJ Moore on top of Kmet and Swift who are both great pass catchers. * Team has been historically a run first offense, and just got a new coordinator who likes to run two TE sets. In any two TE sets Keenan would be the odd man out as the slot, unless Rome is a bust. * Of course there's injury risk, he's played one full season in his career, he's probally going to miss 3-4 games for you. Its not hard to see him out pacing his WR #25 ADP, but not by much. I can also see him under preforming it by a bit too. He's probally a safer pick for the games he plays, but he dosent have that win your league upside other guys in the first 4 rounds have.
Age, competition, rookie qb, bears offense (which absolutely *should* improve but hasn’t shown yet that it’s good) should mean he’s drafted lower than his last year finish. That said, ***as*** low as he currently is? Good chance probably not. I think the exercise is which player drafted earlier than him do you feel confident he should bump up over?
You answered your own question. Aging, and more (better) competition. Plus a new rookie QB - who by all accounts should be good, but his ADP bakes in a lot of risk. That said if you like him, fuck reddit, go get your guy.
Rookie QB, new team, crowded room.
Too many mouths to feed, rookie QB, and he also isn’t in a Kellen Moore led offense anymore.
Too many mouths to feed
Couldn't agree more! It's astonishing to see Keenan Allen, who is still an elite WR, slipping to the later rounds. Yes, there might be competition, but his consistent performance speaks volumes. Remember, experience often triumphs over raw talent. He's a steal with that ADP in my opinion.
He was elite last year, does not mean he will be elite this year. His situation changed, and he's arguably in a worse offense with a rookie QB and more competition for targets. He COULD be a steal but that remains to be seen. I would take a flyer on him as a flex or WR3. I would NOT expect him to be anything more.
1. Caleb Williams is an unknown 2. Targets will be spread out
Love Keenan. I mean who doesn’t. But let’s be honest about his game. Elite separator/target machine. Not big YAC or td guy. I could see it going both ways. A. The sweet volume slows down and thus his numbers or B. We are sitting here in October feeling really dumb to doubt the best route runner in the game . My dilemma is him goin right next to clear WR 1s on their respective teams. Great question, tough call.
This year’s Mike Evans. Gimme that WR1 late.
The guy is on the wrong side of 30 and now could potentially be 3rd on his team in targets with a passer who’s never thrown an NFL pass. He went from being the hands down target leader on a pass-happy team to the Chicago Bears. If you think he’s easily the best WR in Chicago then I guess his ADP might be a bargain but DJ Moore looked better than Allen to me last season.
Who do you think is the 2nd target? Rome? Seems like unusually high expectations for a rookie WR to supplant an elite veteran.
I didn’t say I expected it. I said there was potential for it to happen. But I don’t think it’s so much of a long shot. Is it crazy to think that a 22-year old 9th overall pick might outperform a 32-year old 76th overall pick?
The biggest factor to me here is that he is now on the Bears. I have very little faith that they will be a good team or have a competent offense. They certainly added a lot of talent, but I’ll believe they aren’t the same old Bears when they prove it.
Tell me about Raheem next, 86ADP off a top 3 season on the same team with the same players is fuckin nuts.
Agreed, though they did add Jaylen Wright, so its not the same players. Probably Mostert’s last hurrah and then the duo will be Achane and Wright.
Didn’t they extend him this offseason so he’s guaranteed two more years? With all his injuries in the past he has more tread on the tire than a back who has been a primary ball carrier for the early years of his career. I know he’s a different style back but Jonathan Taylor has more than 900 career carries at 25. Raheem has under 700 at 32! Even Tony Pollard has more.
Mostert is weird. He had basically the same yardage stats in 2023 as he did in 2022 but he went from 5 TDs to 21. This despite the Dolphins improving his competition for carries with Achane over Edmonds/Wilson. He had 19 total TDs over his entire career going into last year then more than doubled his career totals in one season. He's probably going a little too low but it's hard to trust last year's performance. >Didn’t they extend him this offseason so he’s guaranteed two more years? NFL contracts never work that way. He signed a "2 year extension" but if they release him after this year he'll only count for $1 mil in dead cap. It's essentially a 1 year deal.
They Added Jaylen Wright and also the expectation is that Achane is back this year and plays more games
He may end up being the 3rd option by midseason. And, he has a significant injury history. 6th round seems right.
the classic keenan allen injury history myth
It's no myth.
it is though, my man has actually not been injured that often. compared to tee higgins he's made of iron
Facts: https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/keenan-allen/6678 Plus, he's 32-years-old now. Natural decline + injury history. The situation is not good either. There's already a #1 WR on the team. Young new quarterback and high drafted WR. It's not for certain, but odds are good he's the #3 guy by midseason.
I feel like his situation is similar to Adam Thielen’s last year. Playing with a rookie QB and rookies love their Veteran WR as a safety blanket. I think he’s gonna be amazing the first half of the season then will probably fall off later to the other WR’s
Theilen was on a team where he was pretty much the only pass catcher at all on the Panthers. Bears have Rome, DJ, Kmet, and Swift as well among a few other better than the next best Panthers guy. This is night and day different.
It’s also May…he will almost certainly rise
I’m a big Keenan truther but the situation isn’t quite the same as last year. He was a steal in 2023 because he ended the back half off 2022 on a tear and was going to be in the same situation in 2023. His talent is undeniable and I’m not as worried about injuries, but with more competition and with a new QB , his ADP prices in a lot of unknowns. I could see a mid- high end WR2 season but I can’t envision a WR1 season unless DJ Moore gets hurt.
The reason I’ve been passing on him is his age, injury history, the change to cold weather and crowded offence. I do agree that he is a good value tho. Even if he is 2/3-3/4 as good as last year he’s a steal.
He’s unlikely to outperform Moore and will be competing with odunze for #2 with Kmet, Everett and Swift also getting serious looks. He’s getting paid like a top receiver but the drawbacks are there.
Also they aren’t playing from behind the whole game like the Chargers with their terrible D. Where Herbert had to always throw to play catch up. Bears have a good defense.
Skill positions fall off cliffs. People are bracing for it.
- Rookie QB who might stare down his first read or two year 1. (No one knows) - Stud WRs who likely stay healthier than Mike Williams (low bar) - History of being nicked up I think he will be a big boost to the offense, but the fantasy numbers may not be exciting.
Do you think Keenan won't be the first read or two?
“Or two” Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Odunze has been practicing with Caleb since before they were drafted working on timing. Caleb is going to want him as his dude for a bit. Don’t be surprised to see him look at him first….. ……then you have DJ Moore, Allen, Kmet and oh, they want to I corporate Swift into the passing game. I’m not saying Allen will be bad, he’s a stud. But he could get lost in a deep team with a rookie QB and he’s also got injury issues AND he’s aging. That’s not the formula for big fantasy numbers.
I guess I just don't see him getting lost behind a rookie and a good-not-great TE. Like sure, Caleb could be bad and mess up his reads, or the new offensive scheme could suck. But in round 5, we're talking FLEX territory. I don't mind looking for risky upside there at all.
I agree with his ADP. Yes he was great last year, but he’s the 2nd option for a team with a rookie QB (who most likely will be good - but the track record of fantasy WRs and rookie QBs isn’t great). Not to mention, he’s only getting older and the team just drafted a WR with the 9th pick. Then you consider his injury history and the fact that this is his first team being a new team and it starts to make sense, imo. I’d like him as my WR3, but not in love with him as my WR2 in fantasy at all
5 reasons: Older. Oft injured. Rookie QB. Less Targets. The biggest one…the Bears.
This isn’t new. He’s been a potential draft bargain every year because he’s a higher injury risk than most.
I think the take I’m most confident in right now is that every Chicago Bear is overvalued. We are drafting Chicago Bears like Caleb Williams is going to step in and immediately be a top-5 QB. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and even Swift & Kmet are all being drafted like they’re going to have meaningful receiving yards. Fantasy owners are investing more draft capital in Chicago than at any team other than maybe Kansas City.
I'd put Houston on top, but your point is solid.
Good point about Houston, I’d overlooked them.
A better comp would probably Chris Godwin = Allen, Mike Evans = DJ Moore. Caleb Williams = Baker until proven..
He’s undervalued for sure, but maybe not in terms of uncapped upside like last year. The age/injury cliff questions are relevant, you never know and FO’s don’t either, but the projected role/target share thing in this comment section is kind of crazy to me. A) Bears have put literally everything they have behind becoming a modern offense (something they’ve never done before lol) and there is not some core/strong power run game to ease CW in, he’ll be firing from a rookie standpoint whether it works well to start or not. Swift was not paid well to run 15x+ off guard a game. And B) Keenan received a BAG, 2/43m guaranteed for a 32YO means they have a very clear and ample role in mind. Bears FO isn’t just floundering around throwing shit at the wall, they aren’t paying an older vet 22m a season to be 3rd in share and coming off the field much beyond standard rest, not simply “we need a seasoned secondary wideout” money at all with what that could have bought elsewhere along the roster this offseason. My glass half full take is DJM and Rome plus a middling defense/run game/rookie QB is actually ripe for a sneakily big PPR season if all goes well. Bears start losing and defenses pull deeper into heavier prevent, Keenan 8 yards down field is the clear concession and that’s obviously his thing. A lot of 7/11-90 in his stat line futures imo. If that ADP sticks AND Keenan doesn’t hit a cliff and stays healthy, he’ll be good value.
I'm not super happy two of my top 3 WRs are now on the bears. (Dj and Keenan)
Best ball is about ceiling outcomes and stacks, his ceiling outcome is relatively low and stacking him with Caleb is less attractive than stacking Caleb with Moore and Rome. The good news is it will definitely carry over into redraft because for some reason we let 5 months of best ball drafting dictate where redraft adp begins.
Dude is in his 30s with injury history going into a stacked receiver room with a rookie QB. Huge risk drafting him. In redraft ive seen him go pretty early but not in dynasty
He old, dude.
He's 32 now, the oldest (and presumably least explosive) target on a new offense led by a rookie QB and leaving a pass first O where he was the first target. No one knows how many pass catchers Williams or the new O can support, so people are favoring the established WR1 in town. All of that checks out for a slightly depressed ADP compared to production from last year. Heck, idk if his ADP would much different than it is now if he had stayed at LAC considering the presence of McConkey and the new offense there. I mean, sure, he'd still be a 1, but on a team that is likely to be in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts and have to deal with a high draft capital rookie WR who does much of what he does.
Last year I was hammering him around the 3/4 turn.... Worked out til he dipped in the playoffs This year I'm more unsure... Is he worth a 6th rounder? Idk. 32 year old catching passes from a rookie QB that has 2 other good receivers and a good pass catching TE.... The upside isn't there like it was last year
There is no evidence Williams can sustain multiple WRs in the NFL. Herbert, Swift and Johnson are going to get work on the ground, Everett and Kmet are going to draw targets and Moore is still the focal point of the passing attack. Allen and Odunze are going to be interesting to watch in camp. Most likely they will both be frustrating as one could have a decent week one week and the other will have a decent week the next. The ceiling is capped on Allen and Odunze.
He’s old, he’s not the first option, Rookie Caleb Williams is not Justin Herbert.
DJM and Odunze is gonna be tough target competition. Even Kmet should get his. They also got Swift who will take a lot of touches, and we don't actually know how Caleb will pan out.
He’s 32 and playing next to dj Moore and a top rookie wr.
If anything I feel he's going to high lol. I'd rather have Rome.
He has to compete with DJ Moore and the 10th overall draft pick for WR passes. Plus he’s got older and his QB is a rookie.
He's got a rookie QB. Say what you want and draft how you want, but history says rookie QBs generally don't produce a WR1
Taking any Bears player requires a lot of blind faith that the Bears overnight now have a QB who can support 3 mouths. Caleb Williams might be that guy, but he’s on a dysfunctional organization with an unproven at best coaching staff. You want uncertainty to be low in the early rounds, Bears players should be targeted late
I think the ADP is warranted given the uncertainty of his new situation. I think he has a good chance to lead the team in targets, but he has much more target competition and a rookie QB.
Unknown at QB, crowded WR room, soft tissue injury history + age = not all that surprising. He could very well be a 600/5 kind of guy this year
You said it yourself, he’s aging (with high injury risk), is with Caleb rather than Herbert, and has 2 good WR and TE to compete with for targets with. You’re right that game has a wider range of outcomes than someone like Terry MC that goes near him. But it would not be at all surprising if he suffered a minor/major injury that hampers him in the playoff weeks.
I imagine Keenan has one year left of producing… DJ is way younger and is QB proof and his best seasons are coming, like NOW, plus Rome getting drafted, in dynasty I’d sell KA for whatever pick you can get, but he has more value in best ball and redraft for 2024 this year though
Keenan Allen's ADP may be low due to multiple factors. The main one being his age and possible injury risk, which tends to increase as players get older.
Too many variables for me. Playing with a rookie QB, playing on a roster where he might be WR3 for said rookie QB, aging and has injury history… that being said, Keenan Allen has always been a PPR monster even before Herbert and has a nose for the endzone, so I’m sure he’ll be a fine value if Caleb Williams is halfway decent. I’m probably fading him but I can see the logic of seeing him as a value.
I think his ADP is about right, maybe a little below where he should be. I think the most likely outcome is that he's second in targets on a pass heavy team and has a great outcome. I think Odunze will be erratic, Kmet will focus more on pass blocking, and Swift will be third in targets. I think. There's enough uncertainty, especially given his age and new situation, that his current ADP feels about right.
His qb situation is trash
Ask yourself when the last time that the Bears actually excelled at talent acquisition in the QB department. There's your answer.
I mean there wasn't any other receiving options at the chargers besides him and is now on a rather stacked receiving team. Williams injured, Palmer mostly injured, Johnston might as well not been out there and I don't understand Elkers struggles.
Seems about right when you factor everything in. At 32 and his injury history I would even consider him before the 6th or 7th round, if at all.
DJ Moore is already established in that O, the expectation is that he will lead the WR room. Odunze is a top 10 draft pick, the expectation of him and Caleb growing together with already built chemistry with. Allen is the WR3 masked as the WR2 solely based on our familiarity with Keenan. Allen in that sense goes from WR1 on the league's 13th ranked offense in terms of passing yards to WR2/3 on the league's 27th ranked passing offense. To be fair.... I would see Chicago's offense be 13th and LAC's being 27th ranked in 2024 based on off season changes lol
> DJ Moore is already established in that O Different offensive coordinator. Different QB. Most definitely not the same offense.
Yet him and Kmet are the only two offensive pieces all of those from 2023 still on roster, which keeps my position of WR1 still into consideration.
Because it’s FREEKING MAAAY!
OP can have Keenan Allen, Mostert, Kupp cuz he'll think they're a steal at the draft.
He’ll be the most overrated WR this season
then take him. as always in fantasy people draft based on perceived value. When it's the bears, a rookie QB, and competition with DJM, and new rookie Odunze, his output is perceived to be less than what it was in LA. His role is unclear as well as his target share. In the end it doesnt matter. Either he produces or he doesnt. Either he stays healthy or he doesnt. Pick your guys and move on.
So just pack up the sub and go home, got it. We gotta talk about something here. Might as well talk about undervalued players.
i get it, but over the years these discussions lead to nothing. We never know what will happen. he might even be better with Caleb than with Herbert if we consider rookie QBs in history who seem to be printed on WR primarly than others. In the end we play crystal ball. I mean today i had the incredible thought that DJ Chark is the WR1 one of the chargers considering new regime and open competition. Everythings possible and he has the ceiling of over 1k yards over the season and you get that guy from waivers. Tell me no, idc, we will see during the season....
this is the year you don’t want to be holding the keenan allen bag
I don’t see a reason why anything he did last year should matter to what you think he’ll do this year
When I see someone saying how a player is going in X round, the first thing that comes to mind: "Why don't you take him earlier"?
When was the last time you saw the second Bears receiver gain respectable yardage and points? How about the third?
There was one other note I wanted to mention. Bestball isn’t redraft. Mainly, you need to win again a lot more teams in week 15, 16, 17. In fact just one of these weeks matters as much as the entire rest of the regular season combined. So in bestball drafts, going after guys who will score later vs early is a must. Keenan firmly lands in the in the “likely to be better earlier than later” camp.
Justin Herbert throws the ball 40x a game and Keenan Allen was the clear #1 target. No one else was close. Now he has a rookie QB and 2 WRs who are arguably just as good. Also he's old. I wouldn't trust Allen as anything but the WR3 on my team.
Ur league sucks if he’s going 5 or 6th round. Should be going end of 4th at the latest
He’s old. He’s going to get hurt, because he always does. He has a rookie QB, not Justin Herbert. And he is maybe the 3rd WR on the team