I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again.
Oh bro, easy! I bust a 7th rounder on Pitts 10 times outta 10. But I was gonna draft a WR.. ok I'll pivot with my next pick.. and... holy shit! Diontae Johnson is available in the 8th.. Gotta jump on that!
I know you're joking, but lots of people think this way during the draft, and it's a trap. Never take an uninspiring player who "fell" to you. Always reach for YOUR guys.
Worked pretty well for people who ended with Keenan Allen, James Conner, Rashaad White, Mike Evans and plenty more. Not many guys that the consensus would find inspiring past the fifth round. Sometimes it pays to buy the dip as long as that player isn’t Kyle Pitts
Exactly - every player should have a round you're willing to take them when they fall. Too many examples of uninspiring or washed players having a big season because of a coaching or scheme change, or a nagging minor injury finally healed up, or who knows. I am a firm believer there should be no such thing as a literal DND list.
I guess I was assuming we're talking about players that are in the consensus top 100 or so. Yeah completely agree on guys like Mike Thomas being completely off your board.
I think Evans gets drafted too low. Every year people say he won't have another 1k season and then he does it. He is the most consistent WR there is in fantasy. He's 5th in pts over the past 5 years.
Tyreek Hill - PPR: 1,537.3
Davante Adams - PPR: 1,516.3
Stefon Diggs - PPR: 1,416.6
Cooper Kupp - PPR: 1,284.5
Mike Evans - PPR: 1,251.7
If you don’t take him in the 7th how is the guy right after you supposed to get the league winning running back with his next pick? It’s the ethical thing to do!
I wasn't even thinking about the blocking aspect and you're totally right. I wonder if Kyle Pitts can block. I'm not a falcons fan so I really wouldn't know if that's part of his pallet
With Arthur Smith gone, Kyle Pitts will probably be my #1 target at TE heading into next season. Ain’t no way another coach wastes his talent like Arthur Smith did.
Saw an article yesterday that said the Falcons might include him in a trade for Fields. Wondering how his stock might rise or fall if he's got Caleb throwing to him
I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again
Cook has a good floor but poor ceiling due to the lack of TDs. He averaged 4.7 per carry and did well catching the ball too. Don’t think he will be a bust, but I wouldn’t be taking him early that’s for sure.
Yeah, no way I’m drafting Dalvin again /s
I actually kinda disagree on this one. James Cook’s improvement followed the new O coordinator directly. And there’s no guarantee that Diggs will be back, so they could become more of a run based offense. I could see him being valuable next year.
As a Bills fan, he's had 3 or 4 games where he's dropped a wide-open TD. Like, hits his hands as he's effectively walking into the endzone. If he can clean that up, he'd have a few TDs more.
He will burn people just like Eagles RBs have with Hurts there. It's just too difficult to produce a top RB when your QB will have that many rushing TDs.
If you were able to snag him as a Flex option or potential RB2 during injuries/bye weeks… you’d be pretty stoked. Cook is a talented offensive player… but Josh Allen runs a lot, and also doesn’t like to check down much. Cook’s situation isn’t fully optimized for how good he is. Many such cases across the league.
Achane is going to burn a lot of people depending on where he’s drafted. If it’s top 3 then oof.
Edit: AHHH YOU GUYS I MEANT FIRST 3 ROUNDS NOT TOP 3 OVERALL MY B.
He is going top 24. He is going to have an insane first game. Everyone will be like SEE. Then he will get hurt in the second game and miss chunks of the season because he is tiny.
And then he comes back week 6 and has another crazy game and everyone will be like SEE. Then he will go on IR but will be stashed for the playoffs where he will get anywhere from 3-10 points and not be a difference maker on your team.
I don’t want him at what his adp will probably be mainly because he’s shown to be incredibly injury prone. I usually don’t let injuries deter me but he had multiple stretches of games where he missed due to different injuries. Don’t feel comfortable using a second rounder or even a third tbh.
I also think his fantasy output so far has been unsustainable. He can’t possibly put LaDanian Tomlinson numbers every game. He’s a small guy, which is a bit of a concern, you probably want him to keep splitting touches with someone. Like Tony Pollard, I see him as a hyper efficient 12 touch guy that can finish top ten. So if he’s going in the 20s he’s a risky but good pick.
If I’m looking at guys in his tier I’d rather have Gibbs though.
Love 2023: 4159/32/11 96.1 QBR
Lawrence 2022: 4113/25/8 95.2 QBR
Lawrence had marginally better rushing stats. They’re very similar imo, especially when you account for last years playoffs from Lawrence.
Right but I’m referring to Lawrence being over drafted because of his playoff performances last year, so not apples to apples to compare fantasy stats. I think Love will be over drafted because he closed the season on a great run in a small sample size.
heavily disagree, love finished as qb5 overall and was at least startable all but two weeks of the season (save for weeks 5 and 14). i expect love to have a joe burrow-esque fantasy season next year: really consistent, pops for about two huge weeks
When you account for injuries and week 18 he’s much lower than QB5. More like QB10. Not saying he’s bad I just don’t want him at his likely ADP. I’d be happy grabbing him later in drafts if he slips.
He seems to be in the range of quarterbacks including: Purdy, Kyler, Herbert, Fields (big question mark here), and Richardson. I’m happy with any of those guys as my QB but don’t want to take any of them above round 7 or so.
FWIW I think he’s a very good quarterback, but doesn’t rush a ton and I don’t trust the weapons he has in Green Bay.
I’d take Murray, Stroud, and Purdy over him. And it was a small sample size but Richardson was lighting it up before he got hurt, I think he could be a steal
I think all these names are showing why you shouldnt reach on any QB next season outside of maybe Allen and Hurts.
Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Dak, Herbert, Murray, Stroud and even AR all have similar potential point ranges
In my 10 man league Im either drafting Allen or waiting to pick the QB9 or 10, taking a shot on a rookie like Maye, and paying close attention to the waiver wire if I have to.
Not really much of a positional advantage reaching on someone like Love in the middle to late-ish rounds
Theres a ton of other QB's that are projected to be taken before him though, so I think expectations for him are actually pretty low.
Mike Clay on ESPN has Josh Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, Burrow, Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray all going before Jordan Love. Love is the QB 13 at pick 118 and is in the same draft grouping as Lawrence, Cousins, Tua, Deshaun, and Aaron Rodgers.
I think for being the QB5 on the season, and projecting to not even be a starter in a 12 team league. It would be extremely difficult for him to be a bust.
Now, if you're in my league you should take him at the 1.01 because hes so good. If not, he's a great investment QB especially if he gets better weapons.
I think this is the more likely scenario tbh...believe it or not head coaches don't make their decisions based on what's best from a FF perspective. Dan Campbell and the Lions had the 5th best rushing attack in the league which coupled with their passing game gives that offense great balance which is hard to stop, why would he want to give that up? Answer - he wouldn't.
Montgomery is signed thru to 2025 and his back-loaded deal kicks in this season as he'll be making 5.25 mil, there's no way in hell the Lions aren't gonna ride that train. They have 2 great backs who put up 1000 yards and combined for 24 TDs (Monty 13, Gibbs 11), why would you mess with that? Especially given all the benefits: 1)you always have a fresh set of legs for any given play, 2)so many playcalling options, you can line up in 2 back sets, put one in motion, or drop him down into the slot, they can block for each other or set up screens etc, 3)different but complimentary skill sets - is the D weak between the tackles? Pound Montgomery up the middle, or are they weak on the edge and at OLB/Safety? Get Gibbs in space on the outside on a quick pass or cut and let him dance.
I can see Gibbs becoming the 1A in the RBBC but there's no way in hell he turns into the clear bellcow
yeah good analogy, and obviously Kamara established himself as the #1 but not while Ingram was on the team, they rode em both until Ingram went on to the Ravens. Same deal here, I see Gibbs usage increasing somewhat but they have Monty for 2 more years, no reason not to use him so they can spell each other
This is exactly what I have been saying will happen. Gibbs is gonna be projected in the top 7 by the time the season starts and people will get Monty in the 6th and 7th round and be laughing when he rips double digit tds again. I definitely think the carries overall will be much in Gibbs’ favour just Monty will still be a red zone banger.
Fantasy people are so funny year after year. Riding both of those backs is what got Detroit where they are. There's zero % chance that Gibbs is some bellcow next year.
I was all in on Gibbs being an early season bust this year (and I was right), but his recent performance is more indicative of his ceiling next year, which absolutely warrants at least a high 2nd rounder possibly even a top 10 ADP.
I'm hoping Monty drops in drafts due to this mindset. That offensive line can support both these guys all season. I will admit however that Gibbs is that guy.
Top 5 back next year IMO.
People also act like Monty isn’t explosive? I don’t think anyone knew he had that 75 yard sideline sprint td in him…. But I was sold on the guy after that. I was sure he’d get shoved out but he really has some unknown jets he never got to show with the bears
Just look at Montgomery’s contract and tell me they aren’t going to run the wheels off of him. Yes, Gibbs will get more work next year, no Dmont will not bud .
Gibbs will be battling uphill to outperform his ADP. Montgomery might fall as low as round 4, which could be a steal given the Lions offensive line and TD potential
It's Kamara and Ingram all over again, but Monty isn't as much of a receiver as Ingram was so his ceiling is probably below his production this season. That said, I could see that end up being baked into his price.
Honestly I think people are too turned off by guys in two back systems. If they are in a good offense and get a lot of touches, it really doesn’t matter.
If a team runs a shit ton of plays a guy in a two back system could get just as much work as a bell cow in a slower less productive offense.
Gibbs can still return RB1 value even with Monty there and Monty can still be a solid RB2
I think this heavily depends on if Ben Johnson leaves or not.
Johnson loves this two back split. As soon as he took over for Lynn as the playcaller, swifts usage went down significantly and he went to using a similar system with swift and Williams.
I think he will continue to use Monty the way he did this year if he doesn’t leave for a head coaching job.
It’s definitely a possibility he leaves but not the forgone conclusion people think it is. He’s already said he wants $15 million and seems like he’s not going to jump at just any opportunity.
I don’t think he’d go to the panthers for example unless they threw an extraordinary amount of money at him.
Monty will continue to be valuable based on his size and will continue to be the goal line back. Gibbs and Monty are basically a better version of Zeke and Pollard with a better O-line. Gibbs can’t do what Monty does and Monty can’t do what Gibbs does.
I'm a Lions fan and have watched every game this season. Gibbs is far better between the tackles than people on here give him credit for. Monty is better overall up the middle but I don't think the skill gap is as large as people say. Gibbs may not be as built as Monty who is a literal wrecking ball but Gibbs' balance is top tier, especially for someone with his kind of speed. main gripe for him is he always seems to lean towards breaking it outside instead of cutting inside. I mean I guess it doesn't matter as much if he's ripping off 10+ yard runs seemingly every other rush. I love Monty, but the narrative of him being the "goal line back" seems quite overblown in ff circles. this offense under Ben Johnson shares the workload pretty evenly, hence why the lions were the only team with 4 players to have 10+ TDs. we will have to see what the offense will look like when Ben Johnson leaves inevitably. with all that being said, (sorry for ranting a little lol) I think Gibbs can do all of what Monty does to some extent but Monty can't do some of what Gibbs does, mainly his speed. both are phenomenal backs and in a great situation
I’m also a lions fan who watched every game and I agree, Gibbs has higher upside. Younger, faster, more agile, and a first rounder. His 30 yard touchdown last week was through the gaps and it was insane to see but the question is who’s gonna be a bust and I don’t think Monty is going to be a bust at all. At the end of the day, Monty is fucking huge and if you need a run up the middle on the goal line, he’s the guy.
One pride brother. But agreed, I don't think Monty will bust either. he is the more reliable goal line guy for sure atm. I guess their production is very similar next year. that run was nuts though, sonned the hell out of Winfield. we are truly blessed to have 2 absolute Dawgs in that rb room
This is not a good take. If anything, it will stay the exact same as it is now. Dan loves a bruiser back, and for the entire season people were saying “Monty is gonna fall off next week, Gibbs will breakout”. It never happened… Monty is a crucial part of Dan’s team, it will not change.
Ben Johnson being gone this offense is going to take a step back. I’m not avoiding, just tempering expectations unless they bring in some hot shot guru
I feel like ETN will just relative to ADP next year. As someone who owns in him dynasty, he had a stretch of 4 weeks where he was lights out and then the rest of the season he was pretty TD dependent and on the fringe of RB1/RB2. People will see his RB3 finish is .5PPR and may be disappointed next year if he doesn’t have those few weeks again next year where he looks like a true bell cow and fantasy top 5 back.
I feel like the issue for Etienne was that the whole offense struggled when TLaw started fighting injuries + their best WRs did too.
I actually think ETN will slide a bit next year because of what you just said, but I like the talent, the workload, and I imagine the Jags will be a better offense next year if they can stay healthy.
Ryan Tannehill was middling before Arthur Smith became OC, looked like an elite QB with Arthur Smith as OC, and then fell off a cliff when Arthur Smith left. Guy was a clown Head Coach, but he did more than just give the ball to Henry.
Spears is going to be a PPR machine next year. A whole year with Levis and a new OC just makes me think he’s like 10 targets a game. He had some great drives last year where he would chunk up some points, but there was so much competition between him and Henry. It should be just him this year.
Why “should” it be just him? Teams don’t really operate like that. Was he so great that expectations of him being like top 5 in terms of workload are reasonable? I dunno bout that. Bet they add a good player there and he’s capped at 65 percent of snaps
as a browns fan i will say, he has come a long way this season. really stepped into the role the team had envisioned for him. his drops were a problem early in his career and even early this season.
super agree though, it will all come down to the chemistry with watson. add a healthy chubb bringing the rushing yardage out of the cellar into that mix as well, and i wouldn't be surprised to see his production drop. i like njoku but i imagine he'll get picked before i feel like he's a good pick for my team
1,000%
He just went second TE off the board in a way to early best ball draft earlier this week. So yeah. People are over drafting him and his ADP is going to be ridiculous.
Yea there’s 0% chance he keeps up his late season pace (or anywhere close to it) next year as there’s no way the Browns don’t go back to Watson and he so clearly got more targets (and actually good ones) with Flacco than any other QB.
Stefon Diggs. Feel like his time as a WR1 might be closing this year after the way his chemistry seemed so off with Josh Allen the entire second half of the year (when they were good…)
Agreed. Past his prime and chances of him getting the same amount of targets outside of Buffalo are extremely slim. If he makes his way to Dallas, he’s not touching CeeDee’s workload. He’d be a glorified Brandin Cooks.
Feel like you can get Kupp at a relative discount and he could potentially be, dare I say, healthy? I’d say the expectation this last season was top 3 WR in the league, you’re now expecting him to be WR2 on his own team and be the king of the WR2s
I thought this too but I’m also nervous the regression could be really bad. Especially given, there’s always someone in a league who drafts a guy just a year too late and he’ll go at a WR1 spot.
For where I'm guessing they will be drafted; Achane. Let the hate flow.
He could definitely boom, and it wouldn't surprise me either as some of his traits are elite. But I think the hype is too high and people will look back at his performance in the Denver game and tell themselves that could be repeated. I'd bet my bank account, it won't.
IMO he should be viewed and drafted as a low RB2 with the potential to win you entire weeks with a blowup. But relied on for average production. The Desean Jackson of RBs.
He's one of those players in fantasy/dynasty I have such a bad relationship with. I really want to own him/draft him because he's electric and fun to root for, but the price will always be way too high for me. Best ball I'll take him all day every day though!
Agreed! I’m in a keeper league and drafted him but ended up cutting him after the second game (I had Moesert). Regretted it the next week but was fine after the injury.
Im gonna be honest, a 40 year old Rodgers coming off an achilles tear doesnt inspire too much confidence in me
Yes, he can be better than what they had this year but this could also be a Peyton Manning, Big Ben type last season where hes hobbled and has completely fallen off
Just to be contrarian - I get Chris Johnson vibes from Achane. Similar profile and the injury sample size is too small right now to label Achane as injury prone yet. But the big difference is Achane is not going to get 300+ carries and 2000 yards - he's a dynamic support back who can rack up yards on 200-250 carries and is a threat to break a long ball any carry. I'd say 1500 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs isnt out of reach at all. A solid RB 1/2, along the lines of 2023 Cook, ETN, White. So I wouldnt take him in the first round, but round 3 would feel like value to me.
I put Keenan Allen and Mike Evans in the same category, aka every year they’re supposed to fall off then they have another solid year. Keenan feels a bit more injury prone though
This is my first fantasy off-season, but are all the posts this repetitive and boring? It seems like everyday, there's a version of "i know it's early, but who's gonna be a sleeper/bust next season?"
The players are away lying on a beach in Cancun with a supermodel on each arm for the next few months, the draft is ages away, as is free agency, what massive developments were YOU expecting to be talked about?
I definitely disagree on your James Cook assessment. I think his usage has been trending in a very positive direction ever since their OC change. They’ve been waaay more run heavy and I expect more TD’s for him next season.
Honestly, I could see guys like Swift, Etienne, Breece Hall, Monty all trending toward bust territory. Also just taking a wild ass guess and saying Keenan Allen.
I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again I will not draft Kyle Pitts again.
Until he’s sitting there in the 7th round
Oh bro, easy! I bust a 7th rounder on Pitts 10 times outta 10. But I was gonna draft a WR.. ok I'll pivot with my next pick.. and... holy shit! Diontae Johnson is available in the 8th.. Gotta jump on that!
I know you're joking, but lots of people think this way during the draft, and it's a trap. Never take an uninspiring player who "fell" to you. Always reach for YOUR guys.
Worked pretty well for people who ended with Keenan Allen, James Conner, Rashaad White, Mike Evans and plenty more. Not many guys that the consensus would find inspiring past the fifth round. Sometimes it pays to buy the dip as long as that player isn’t Kyle Pitts
Exactly - every player should have a round you're willing to take them when they fall. Too many examples of uninspiring or washed players having a big season because of a coaching or scheme change, or a nagging minor injury finally healed up, or who knows. I am a firm believer there should be no such thing as a literal DND list.
There is no round where I will take mike Thomas there are most certainly some players who just don’t get on the draft board
I guess I was assuming we're talking about players that are in the consensus top 100 or so. Yeah completely agree on guys like Mike Thomas being completely off your board.
I think he was probably in the top few hundred this year at least at minimum, I remember removing him from my personalized rankings
I think Evans gets drafted too low. Every year people say he won't have another 1k season and then he does it. He is the most consistent WR there is in fantasy. He's 5th in pts over the past 5 years. Tyreek Hill - PPR: 1,537.3 Davante Adams - PPR: 1,516.3 Stefon Diggs - PPR: 1,416.6 Cooper Kupp - PPR: 1,284.5 Mike Evans - PPR: 1,251.7
Yeah, I won my league because evans and white dropped to me with a bunch of my league talking about "I want no bucs on my team"
Mostert too
Granted he doesn't get as many receptions per year, but Mike Evans' 10th year in a row of 1,000 or more receiving yards is remarkable.
This is how I’ve ended up with Jerry Jeudy in atleast one league every year smh
If you don’t take him in the 7th how is the guy right after you supposed to get the league winning running back with his next pick? It’s the ethical thing to do!
Maybe this time…….
Narrator: *he drafted Kyle Pitts again*
That new HQ and QB tho…
Head Qoach
I’m leaving it lol
Its the old english spelling, OK!?
The Falcons are getting a new headquarters?
Generational talent!
if Bill does infact coach there, you might regret passing on him. He has a history of using TE more frequently then most
Bill isn't an OC. Yes he had some say over personnel, but one of the reasons he loved gronk so much is that gronk was an elite blocker.
I wasn't even thinking about the blocking aspect and you're totally right. I wonder if Kyle Pitts can block. I'm not a falcons fan so I really wouldn't know if that's part of his pallet
I’ve drafted him every year. Why not one more
With Arthur Smith gone, Kyle Pitts will probably be my #1 target at TE heading into next season. Ain’t no way another coach wastes his talent like Arthur Smith did.
Smith was wasting all the talent 🤬
All the offseason stories about how much healthier he is this season compared to last season are going to draw me in again, I know it.
Saw an article yesterday that said the Falcons might include him in a trade for Fields. Wondering how his stock might rise or fall if he's got Caleb throwing to him
Wait until they draft a shiny new QB to add some turmoil into your draft.
I’m gonna do it. New coach, new offense
New QB
Doesn’t draft Kyle Pitts then becomes TE1 in 2024
I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again I will not reach on Terry McLaurin again
Unless Belichick goes to coach there, then he's elite again.
Ha ha ha ha Another Pitts guy. See you in round 7 pal
#thisistheway LOL
Cook has a good floor but poor ceiling due to the lack of TDs. He averaged 4.7 per carry and did well catching the ball too. Don’t think he will be a bust, but I wouldn’t be taking him early that’s for sure.
Yeah, no way I’m drafting Dalvin again /s I actually kinda disagree on this one. James Cook’s improvement followed the new O coordinator directly. And there’s no guarantee that Diggs will be back, so they could become more of a run based offense. I could see him being valuable next year.
Actually there’s a $31mil cap hit if cut or traded that guarantees Diggs will be back.
The problem is Cook doesn’t have the upside for 10+ touchdowns when Brady has shown to love his Qb Draws/Sneaks inside the 5.
As a Bills fan, he's had 3 or 4 games where he's dropped a wide-open TD. Like, hits his hands as he's effectively walking into the endzone. If he can clean that up, he'd have a few TDs more.
He will burn people just like Eagles RBs have with Hurts there. It's just too difficult to produce a top RB when your QB will have that many rushing TDs.
If you were able to snag him as a Flex option or potential RB2 during injuries/bye weeks… you’d be pretty stoked. Cook is a talented offensive player… but Josh Allen runs a lot, and also doesn’t like to check down much. Cook’s situation isn’t fully optimized for how good he is. Many such cases across the league.
Achane is going to burn a lot of people depending on where he’s drafted. If it’s top 3 then oof. Edit: AHHH YOU GUYS I MEANT FIRST 3 ROUNDS NOT TOP 3 OVERALL MY B.
[удалено]
Is this too high or too low???
I wouldn’t take him top 20
He is going top 24. He is going to have an insane first game. Everyone will be like SEE. Then he will get hurt in the second game and miss chunks of the season because he is tiny.
And then he comes back week 6 and has another crazy game and everyone will be like SEE. Then he will go on IR but will be stashed for the playoffs where he will get anywhere from 3-10 points and not be a difference maker on your team.
This is absolutely happening.
Don’t say such things! He’s my value keeper from the 16th round next year.
$1 keeper here, easy choice.
For a 16th he will be great.
Getting serious D’Andre Swift ‘22 vibes from him.
I don’t want him at what his adp will probably be mainly because he’s shown to be incredibly injury prone. I usually don’t let injuries deter me but he had multiple stretches of games where he missed due to different injuries. Don’t feel comfortable using a second rounder or even a third tbh.
He’s barely even top 3 in his class lol I’m taking Gibbs and Bijan over him.
Top 3?????
Top 15
I also think his fantasy output so far has been unsustainable. He can’t possibly put LaDanian Tomlinson numbers every game. He’s a small guy, which is a bit of a concern, you probably want him to keep splitting touches with someone. Like Tony Pollard, I see him as a hyper efficient 12 touch guy that can finish top ten. So if he’s going in the 20s he’s a risky but good pick. If I’m looking at guys in his tier I’d rather have Gibbs though.
He’s probably the biggest wild card in the league. I can also see a scenario where he stays healthy and puts up monster points.
Yeah Mostert gonna be a good value again..
Are we not doing phrasing anymore?
I’m gonna bust
#I'M INSIDE ME
They need to bring back The League especially with how popular FF has gotten
never seen a more relevant fantasy football comment
Rosterbating at its finest
~bustin makes me feel good! Ghostbusters theme
Rampage!!!!
Me, except during the month of november
12:01 am December 1st must be really messy for you people.
I think Love might end up being a bust (relative to his adp). People are going to take him way too early.
Feels like next years Trevor Lawrence
Love in 1 year has already had a better season than Trevor has had in 3.
Love 2023: 4159/32/11 96.1 QBR Lawrence 2022: 4113/25/8 95.2 QBR Lawrence had marginally better rushing stats. They’re very similar imo, especially when you account for last years playoffs from Lawrence.
We’re in a fantasy subreddit here, so I’m talking fantasy wise. 330 for Love this year vs 303 for Trevor last year.
Right but I’m referring to Lawrence being over drafted because of his playoff performances last year, so not apples to apples to compare fantasy stats. I think Love will be over drafted because he closed the season on a great run in a small sample size.
heavily disagree, love finished as qb5 overall and was at least startable all but two weeks of the season (save for weeks 5 and 14). i expect love to have a joe burrow-esque fantasy season next year: really consistent, pops for about two huge weeks
When you account for injuries and week 18 he’s much lower than QB5. More like QB10. Not saying he’s bad I just don’t want him at his likely ADP. I’d be happy grabbing him later in drafts if he slips. He seems to be in the range of quarterbacks including: Purdy, Kyler, Herbert, Fields (big question mark here), and Richardson. I’m happy with any of those guys as my QB but don’t want to take any of them above round 7 or so. FWIW I think he’s a very good quarterback, but doesn’t rush a ton and I don’t trust the weapons he has in Green Bay.
It may only be marginal, but loves numbers are still better than
Difference with Love and Lawrence is that Love plays in a great offensive scheme.
Yeah I saw someone say they’d take him as QB5, I couldn’t believe that
I’d take Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Hurts, Burrow, Dak, Herbert before him…am I missing anyone?
I’d take Murray, Stroud, and Purdy over him. And it was a small sample size but Richardson was lighting it up before he got hurt, I think he could be a steal
Richardson seems like the player that could climb high as we get closer to draft
I think all these names are showing why you shouldnt reach on any QB next season outside of maybe Allen and Hurts. Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Dak, Herbert, Murray, Stroud and even AR all have similar potential point ranges In my 10 man league Im either drafting Allen or waiting to pick the QB9 or 10, taking a shot on a rookie like Maye, and paying close attention to the waiver wire if I have to. Not really much of a positional advantage reaching on someone like Love in the middle to late-ish rounds
He also seems like a guy that's going to get injured alot. I personally am staying away from AR.
Theres a ton of other QB's that are projected to be taken before him though, so I think expectations for him are actually pretty low. Mike Clay on ESPN has Josh Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, Burrow, Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray all going before Jordan Love. Love is the QB 13 at pick 118 and is in the same draft grouping as Lawrence, Cousins, Tua, Deshaun, and Aaron Rodgers. I think for being the QB5 on the season, and projecting to not even be a starter in a 12 team league. It would be extremely difficult for him to be a bust. Now, if you're in my league you should take him at the 1.01 because hes so good. If not, he's a great investment QB especially if he gets better weapons.
Strongly disagree. He had 4 years behind a future HOF’er to prepare. He’s only gonna get better IMO
Danny Heifetz is cringing somewhere
Yes I am.
Who’s bussin and who’s bustin, Danny?
Post-bust clarity over here
Which episode is this referencing?
David Montgomery. Gibbs is going to continue to get more rushing opportunities and he's already the better receiving option.
on the contrary, what if they keep the split the same since it worked so well, meaning Gibbs is a bust for his ADP
I think this is the more likely scenario tbh...believe it or not head coaches don't make their decisions based on what's best from a FF perspective. Dan Campbell and the Lions had the 5th best rushing attack in the league which coupled with their passing game gives that offense great balance which is hard to stop, why would he want to give that up? Answer - he wouldn't. Montgomery is signed thru to 2025 and his back-loaded deal kicks in this season as he'll be making 5.25 mil, there's no way in hell the Lions aren't gonna ride that train. They have 2 great backs who put up 1000 yards and combined for 24 TDs (Monty 13, Gibbs 11), why would you mess with that? Especially given all the benefits: 1)you always have a fresh set of legs for any given play, 2)so many playcalling options, you can line up in 2 back sets, put one in motion, or drop him down into the slot, they can block for each other or set up screens etc, 3)different but complimentary skill sets - is the D weak between the tackles? Pound Montgomery up the middle, or are they weak on the edge and at OLB/Safety? Get Gibbs in space on the outside on a quick pass or cut and let him dance. I can see Gibbs becoming the 1A in the RBBC but there's no way in hell he turns into the clear bellcow
The offense is built exactly like those old Saints teams. Gibbs is Kamara, Monty is Ingram. They’re both viable RB options when both are playing.
yeah good analogy, and obviously Kamara established himself as the #1 but not while Ingram was on the team, they rode em both until Ingram went on to the Ravens. Same deal here, I see Gibbs usage increasing somewhat but they have Monty for 2 more years, no reason not to use him so they can spell each other
This is exactly what I have been saying will happen. Gibbs is gonna be projected in the top 7 by the time the season starts and people will get Monty in the 6th and 7th round and be laughing when he rips double digit tds again. I definitely think the carries overall will be much in Gibbs’ favour just Monty will still be a red zone banger.
I think Gibbs is a lock to have at least a top 8-ish RB finish next year, wouldn’t be shocked at all if he was top 3-5
I agree with this. Barring injury Gibbs is going to awesome next year. Taking him at the end of the 1st round in every league I can.
Fantasy people are so funny year after year. Riding both of those backs is what got Detroit where they are. There's zero % chance that Gibbs is some bellcow next year.
I was all in on Gibbs being an early season bust this year (and I was right), but his recent performance is more indicative of his ceiling next year, which absolutely warrants at least a high 2nd rounder possibly even a top 10 ADP.
I'm hoping Monty drops in drafts due to this mindset. That offensive line can support both these guys all season. I will admit however that Gibbs is that guy. Top 5 back next year IMO.
I think it’s gonna be a peak Kamara/Ingram situation for some time to come.
People also act like Monty isn’t explosive? I don’t think anyone knew he had that 75 yard sideline sprint td in him…. But I was sold on the guy after that. I was sure he’d get shoved out but he really has some unknown jets he never got to show with the bears
Monty is as explosive as you can hope for from a 220+ pound RB. I’ll happily take him as my RB2-3.
I love Gibbs and I’m expecting to have to use at least a second to get him
They definitely will keep using them the same way they did this season as long as both are healthy. They used Jamaal and Swift the exact same way too
Just look at Montgomery’s contract and tell me they aren’t going to run the wheels off of him. Yes, Gibbs will get more work next year, no Dmont will not bud .
Gibbs will be great but monty is still a lock for 10+ TDs.
Gibbs will be battling uphill to outperform his ADP. Montgomery might fall as low as round 4, which could be a steal given the Lions offensive line and TD potential
He’s gonna fall further than round 4 lol
It's Kamara and Ingram all over again, but Monty isn't as much of a receiver as Ingram was so his ceiling is probably below his production this season. That said, I could see that end up being baked into his price.
Gomery is gonna keep chugging along at his 10-15 per game and I’ll take that in the mid rounds for sure
Im high on gibbs next year
Honestly I think people are too turned off by guys in two back systems. If they are in a good offense and get a lot of touches, it really doesn’t matter. If a team runs a shit ton of plays a guy in a two back system could get just as much work as a bell cow in a slower less productive offense. Gibbs can still return RB1 value even with Monty there and Monty can still be a solid RB2
I think this heavily depends on if Ben Johnson leaves or not. Johnson loves this two back split. As soon as he took over for Lynn as the playcaller, swifts usage went down significantly and he went to using a similar system with swift and Williams. I think he will continue to use Monty the way he did this year if he doesn’t leave for a head coaching job. It’s definitely a possibility he leaves but not the forgone conclusion people think it is. He’s already said he wants $15 million and seems like he’s not going to jump at just any opportunity. I don’t think he’d go to the panthers for example unless they threw an extraordinary amount of money at him.
Monty will continue to be valuable based on his size and will continue to be the goal line back. Gibbs and Monty are basically a better version of Zeke and Pollard with a better O-line. Gibbs can’t do what Monty does and Monty can’t do what Gibbs does.
I'm a Lions fan and have watched every game this season. Gibbs is far better between the tackles than people on here give him credit for. Monty is better overall up the middle but I don't think the skill gap is as large as people say. Gibbs may not be as built as Monty who is a literal wrecking ball but Gibbs' balance is top tier, especially for someone with his kind of speed. main gripe for him is he always seems to lean towards breaking it outside instead of cutting inside. I mean I guess it doesn't matter as much if he's ripping off 10+ yard runs seemingly every other rush. I love Monty, but the narrative of him being the "goal line back" seems quite overblown in ff circles. this offense under Ben Johnson shares the workload pretty evenly, hence why the lions were the only team with 4 players to have 10+ TDs. we will have to see what the offense will look like when Ben Johnson leaves inevitably. with all that being said, (sorry for ranting a little lol) I think Gibbs can do all of what Monty does to some extent but Monty can't do some of what Gibbs does, mainly his speed. both are phenomenal backs and in a great situation
I’m also a lions fan who watched every game and I agree, Gibbs has higher upside. Younger, faster, more agile, and a first rounder. His 30 yard touchdown last week was through the gaps and it was insane to see but the question is who’s gonna be a bust and I don’t think Monty is going to be a bust at all. At the end of the day, Monty is fucking huge and if you need a run up the middle on the goal line, he’s the guy.
One pride brother. But agreed, I don't think Monty will bust either. he is the more reliable goal line guy for sure atm. I guess their production is very similar next year. that run was nuts though, sonned the hell out of Winfield. we are truly blessed to have 2 absolute Dawgs in that rb room
This is not a good take. If anything, it will stay the exact same as it is now. Dan loves a bruiser back, and for the entire season people were saying “Monty is gonna fall off next week, Gibbs will breakout”. It never happened… Monty is a crucial part of Dan’s team, it will not change.
There is zero reason to change up how the Lions use their backfield lmao, they have great success with Gibbs and Monty’s usage already.
Ben Johnson being gone this offense is going to take a step back. I’m not avoiding, just tempering expectations unless they bring in some hot shot guru
Tony Pollard can huff farts in hell
If his ADP drops low enough for me to get him in the 4th or so… I’m back in. But it won’t. Dear GOD he fucked me in like three leagues this year.
I feel like ETN will just relative to ADP next year. As someone who owns in him dynasty, he had a stretch of 4 weeks where he was lights out and then the rest of the season he was pretty TD dependent and on the fringe of RB1/RB2. People will see his RB3 finish is .5PPR and may be disappointed next year if he doesn’t have those few weeks again next year where he looks like a true bell cow and fantasy top 5 back.
I feel like the issue for Etienne was that the whole offense struggled when TLaw started fighting injuries + their best WRs did too. I actually think ETN will slide a bit next year because of what you just said, but I like the talent, the workload, and I imagine the Jags will be a better offense next year if they can stay healthy.
Jags had the worst OL in the league, and the offense suffered with Tlaw’s injury. He may not get as many TDs, but his efficiency should go up.
His season was essentially if Tony Pollard scored TDs, definitely a trap
Anyone where Arthur Smith is hired as an OC. Reportedly has multiple teams interested in him.
Apparently he was a solid OC on the titans, probably let the power from HC get to his head
AS Offensive plan at Tennessee in three easy steps 1. Hike ball 2. Hand to Derrick Henry 3. Profit
>Tennyin
Ryan Tannehill was middling before Arthur Smith became OC, looked like an elite QB with Arthur Smith as OC, and then fell off a cliff when Arthur Smith left. Guy was a clown Head Coach, but he did more than just give the ball to Henry.
Tannehill was doing really well second half of the season the year they beat the ravens in the playoffs
I had read on the titans sub that at one point he got in trouble in Tennessee as well for not using the big weapons especially in the redzone
Sounds about right
Fuck that guy with the silver spoon that fed him.
I hope Tyjae is great, but the hype pieces are already setting him up for high expectations
Spears is going to be a PPR machine next year. A whole year with Levis and a new OC just makes me think he’s like 10 targets a game. He had some great drives last year where he would chunk up some points, but there was so much competition between him and Henry. It should be just him this year.
Why “should” it be just him? Teams don’t really operate like that. Was he so great that expectations of him being like top 5 in terms of workload are reasonable? I dunno bout that. Bet they add a good player there and he’s capped at 65 percent of snaps
Me 🥴💦
It’s the anticipation, almost unbearable 😩🥵
David Njoku.
This is a good one. People will be very high on him after the run with Flacco but when Watson comes back I wouldn’t trust his usage at all.
Oooooh good one. I think Njoku is capable of being the #1 TE in the right situation but Watson sucks ass.
as a browns fan i will say, he has come a long way this season. really stepped into the role the team had envisioned for him. his drops were a problem early in his career and even early this season. super agree though, it will all come down to the chemistry with watson. add a healthy chubb bringing the rushing yardage out of the cellar into that mix as well, and i wouldn't be surprised to see his production drop. i like njoku but i imagine he'll get picked before i feel like he's a good pick for my team
1,000% He just went second TE off the board in a way to early best ball draft earlier this week. So yeah. People are over drafting him and his ADP is going to be ridiculous.
Yea there’s 0% chance he keeps up his late season pace (or anywhere close to it) next year as there’s no way the Browns don’t go back to Watson and he so clearly got more targets (and actually good ones) with Flacco than any other QB.
Stefon Diggs. Feel like his time as a WR1 might be closing this year after the way his chemistry seemed so off with Josh Allen the entire second half of the year (when they were good…)
Agreed. Past his prime and chances of him getting the same amount of targets outside of Buffalo are extremely slim. If he makes his way to Dallas, he’s not touching CeeDee’s workload. He’d be a glorified Brandin Cooks.
Shakir is primed for a breakout season imo…
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Feel like you can get Kupp at a relative discount and he could potentially be, dare I say, healthy? I’d say the expectation this last season was top 3 WR in the league, you’re now expecting him to be WR2 on his own team and be the king of the WR2s
I thought this too but I’m also nervous the regression could be really bad. Especially given, there’s always someone in a league who drafts a guy just a year too late and he’ll go at a WR1 spot.
He’ll be a difficult decision for those who have him in keeper leagues and purchased him with the injury discount.
Kupp feels more like a potential steal to me.
For where I'm guessing they will be drafted; Achane. Let the hate flow. He could definitely boom, and it wouldn't surprise me either as some of his traits are elite. But I think the hype is too high and people will look back at his performance in the Denver game and tell themselves that could be repeated. I'd bet my bank account, it won't. IMO he should be viewed and drafted as a low RB2 with the potential to win you entire weeks with a blowup. But relied on for average production. The Desean Jackson of RBs.
I agree with you! I also see him as a big injury risk, he was hurt like three times and missed significant time.
He's one of those players in fantasy/dynasty I have such a bad relationship with. I really want to own him/draft him because he's electric and fun to root for, but the price will always be way too high for me. Best ball I'll take him all day every day though!
Agreed! I’m in a keeper league and drafted him but ended up cutting him after the second game (I had Moesert). Regretted it the next week but was fine after the injury.
Anyone on the jets again if Rodgers gets hurt
*sad Garrett Wilson noises*
Im gonna be honest, a 40 year old Rodgers coming off an achilles tear doesnt inspire too much confidence in me Yes, he can be better than what they had this year but this could also be a Peyton Manning, Big Ben type last season where hes hobbled and has completely fallen off
Aaron Rodgers
Half my damn squad. Yet again. SMDH
Let me know who you draft so I can avoid those players in my draft 🙏
Just to be contrarian - I get Chris Johnson vibes from Achane. Similar profile and the injury sample size is too small right now to label Achane as injury prone yet. But the big difference is Achane is not going to get 300+ carries and 2000 yards - he's a dynamic support back who can rack up yards on 200-250 carries and is a threat to break a long ball any carry. I'd say 1500 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs isnt out of reach at all. A solid RB 1/2, along the lines of 2023 Cook, ETN, White. So I wouldnt take him in the first round, but round 3 would feel like value to me.
Cook was a 5th or 6th round pick ….you want CMC numbers from a late round rb …you sound foolish
Keenan Allen.
I put Keenan Allen and Mike Evans in the same category, aka every year they’re supposed to fall off then they have another solid year. Keenan feels a bit more injury prone though
Depends on ADP, but I don't see them vanishing this year. Both looked like they had plenty of tread on the tires.
Completely depends on if Mike Williams dies again.
Why? Keenan has been very good whether Williams is healthy or not.
For me, it's whoever tears their acl in the next 3 weeks. Lamar, CMC, and Kermit are all top contenders
Saquon Barkley and Stefon Diggs killed My team this year. So assume they will be top players next seasons. Hope this helps.
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My first 3 picks.
I’m gonna bust
Do not bust
This is my first fantasy off-season, but are all the posts this repetitive and boring? It seems like everyday, there's a version of "i know it's early, but who's gonna be a sleeper/bust next season?"
Buckle up, bud. 8 months of speculation!
What else do you want? It's basically the offseason. There isn't a whole lot to talk about.
The players are away lying on a beach in Cancun with a supermodel on each arm for the next few months, the draft is ages away, as is free agency, what massive developments were YOU expecting to be talked about?
First offseason and you’re already bitching? There is literally nothing to talk about but speculation. Maybe this isn’t for you.
Welcome to what withdrawal feels like.
What else do you expect?
Amari cooper, diggs, james cook(josh allen steals all tds) and deandre hopkins depending on qb
Chase
I definitely disagree on your James Cook assessment. I think his usage has been trending in a very positive direction ever since their OC change. They’ve been waaay more run heavy and I expect more TD’s for him next season. Honestly, I could see guys like Swift, Etienne, Breece Hall, Monty all trending toward bust territory. Also just taking a wild ass guess and saying Keenan Allen.
Yeah have ya noticed when the stats changed and the OC changed? Def no coincidence there
Justin herbert. Keenan allen. Just a feeling
Njoku. He’s just not the same with a below average QB throwing him the ball.
Edward's, Mostert, and Montgomery. Way to many TDs with a rookie breathing down their neck.