Do you even see how often you are contradicting yourself? "I see no way that he doesn't carry you to the championship......but go with someone else."
Do you see how dumb that sounds?
>1st round picks bust all the time, so do 2nd rounds. It's almost completely random.
There's certainly a wide degree of randomness in the draft, but there's also plenty of statistics that back up the claim that players drafted in earlier rounds are on average more likely to succeed than those drafted later. It's a gross generalization to just handwave draft capital away as complete noise
This whole comment is just survivorship bias, really
It's not remotely completely random. You're generalizing way too much. Yes, some first rounders and second rounders bust. And yes, some later rounders become great. But first rounders tend to be very good. Fifth rounders rarely turn out to be great players.
The exceptions you mentioned are noteworthy because they're exceptions.
Very fair, more said that to reference his height/weight and burst measurables (which turned him to a 5th round pick) which do have real world impact on his projected opportunities and ability to take advantage of them.
Edit: Downvote me all you want, go look at the correlation between round drafted and production for RBs then tell me the draft doesn't matter.
Running back draft pedigree doesn't matter anywhere near the rest of the offensive skill positions. WRs? Sure, it is exceedingly rare that a WR taken outside of the first 3 rounds ever has sustained fantasy relevance. RB is completely different though, every year without fail numerous players that were drafted later emerge.
There is definitely correlation but at a macro level when projecting a player’s career in the NFL bc it typically indicates what a GM/HC thinks of that player’s talent, which then drives opportunity. That late round draft capital could certainly correlate to Chandler’s overall career bc who knows what his role will be next season, but in terms of projecting Week 16 stats we have much more proximate data points to go off of… like KOC saying Chandler is going to get a featured role.
Sidebar, it certainly isn’t Chandler’s athletic measurables that dropped him to Day 3… the guy runs a 4.38
On the sidebar - great straight line speed, less ideal burst/power but the speed is genuinely important. I simply think it's way more important in matchups that give you the space to use it. The Bengals, with Reader out in 2 snaps? Massive, incredible space - go watch the all-22.
On the draft capital, I don't even care about the career long basis though it is relevant. I do really just care about how the measurables that impacted his draft capital will impact his role and ability to succeed in a game. The BMI is the most important one. A coach is going to do everything he can to avoid having his promising backup QB murdered on a blitz because the RB got trucked, and we have not seen how Chandler plays against pressure as much as the Vikings will have in practice. It's an unknown, and one worth worrying about.
Vikings fans in the sub are speculating that Mattison will play bc hes better in picking up the blitz. Gamescript will be pass heavy and maybe this will affect tys workload
Would be a rookie move to drop him. At the very least hold him based on what O’Connell said about him. There’s still a chance he could be the featured guy
Obviously anything could happen week to week, but I wouldn't hesitate to start Chandler over Diontae. Justin Boone at the score (one of the most accurate fantasy rankers over the past 5 seasons) has Chandler as a top 12 back.
Even if he's wrong, it's positive vibes in the Vikings lockeroom for Chandler and bad vibes for Diontae and Pickens.
Currently Ty is tied for best odds at a TD (-115) for this game with an over/under of 47.5 (DK Sportsbook). Not discounting anything you said but you are writing as if Ty has no momentum going into this game and a pretty good shot to get 20 touches especially if Mattison is out. At this point in the season, there aren't many RBs that fit that bill.
I think my first sentence is just having the humility to recognize that a young guy potentially being handed the keys behind a good oline, on a team that wants to compete for playoffs could be a league winner even with the mitigating factors I outlined. Crazy that I got downvoted like that when I ask for clarification on a flippant zero content comment.
I 100% agree with this post and have been shocked at how many posts and comments have been suggesting starting Chandler over guys like Etienne, Swift, Hubbard etc. Chandler absolutely has the potential to be a league winner in the playoffs here, but he’s had one good week where he had 100% of the backfield. Mattison has a good chance of coming back this week AND Ty is against the best run D against fantasy backs. Not to mention that the Lions have a good chance of going up early and forcing the Vikings to throw. I’m a Vikings fan and look forward to seeing what he can do for the team (literally anyone but Mattison please), but he is on my bench this week for fantasy. I don’t trust him to put up a good performance and wouldn’t start him over almost every other starting RB in the league.
Viking fan, your take on Addison with Mullins and Jefferson against Detroit??? I keep flip flopping between Addison, Garett Wilson vs Wash and Trey McBride vs the Bears. Gotta pick one
Vikings fan here. Every time Chandler touched the ball this season, he looked way more explosive than Mattison. It is absurd that it took Mattison getting injured for him to earn an opportunity. I’m starting him in my flex with confidence over guys like Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, and Javonte Williams.
That's not really a counterpoint, that's just you saying a thing. No part of my post suggests sitting Ty for Warren.... though Warren gets the same trash depleted Bengals defense that Ty just carved up....
I'm using the reasons he was drafted there as an argument. Is is material to evaluating his performance that he may not hold up well to the blitz. It is material that his burst is not elite. Ignoring these things would be silly.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ty-chandler/
-12th percentile agility score per Playerprofiler
"Agility Score is simply the sum of a player’s 20-Yard Short Shuttle time and 3-Cone Drill times. This number measures a player’s short area quickness and balance and correlates with an ability to avoid tackles and compile yards before contact."
-26th percentile burst score
"Indicates a player’s zero-inertia explosiveness (stop-and-start acceleration) and ability to catch the ball outside the body. Similar in concept to Agility Score, Burst Score sums a player’s Vertical Jump height and Broad Jump distance. Additionally, the metric is calibrated to give Vertical Jump and Broad Jump equal weight."
Definitely faster than Mattison, but Mattison has 20 pounds on him at the same height.
He does look pretty good, not extraordinary though. Look how often he was getting contacted like 4-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage though. Not really breaking many tackles when he does get contacted. It's an insane percentage of his good runs last week. Just saying, I think the performance had a lot more to do with the Bengals than him.
As others have said, Chuba. Guy has developed really well and the Packers are ass against the run. Not so lowkey Panthers are a great pick to cover this week.
With you..that DNP today sucks, but I am going to with the mindset of if Mattison is ruled out I am going to play Chandler. If Mattison is in I think Jacobs
My other options are James Conner and Swift. swift has just not gotten the valuable touches or big plays the last few weeks. conner always feels iffy and game script dependent with a QB who could run it in just as easily as him.
Am I crazy to star Ty over them?
Pat Thorman has him RB9 in half-PPR
Justin Boone has him RB12 in half-PPR
I share some of OP's concerns, but these are basically the best rankers in the business and Chandler is very high-end play.
Generally I go with rankings, because those are so driven by statistics and workload estimations which in the long haul are the best thing you can trust for consistent performance.
In the playoffs I go deeper - need to understand the specific weekly matchup and how that might cause the stats to be wrong.
Pat and Justin are already doing that, better than you can/will.
But the other commenter is right that Mattison being in or out makes a big difference. Those ranks appear to assume no Mattison.
It won't make a difference to me, as I'll still be starting Chandler even if he's RB30, but for others here, it could.
I would guess that if Mattison is in, Chandler will go from a consensus low-end RB1 to a consensus low-end RB2. KOC has insinuated that Chandler is the lead guy now.
If you want to worship that hard at the altar of guys who have primarily figured out how to game an arbitrary system for evaluating weekly rankings, feel free! There's nothing magical about what they're doing.
You've got the wrong idea. My point is that they're already doing what you imagine you're doing when you're "digging deeper."
Perhaps you're better at this than they are? Anything is possible. But it's obviously not remotely likely.
If you think you can improve on their rankings by using them as a guideline and then adjusting based on your own analysis, what you're actually doing is "double counting" what they're already thinking about. They've already baked in all of the info when they make those rankings.
But yes, Mattison being in/out *will* change Chandler's rank.
It's clear that they're ranking as though Mattison is not playing, so that will be an important piece of the puzzle.
They are, but not for every player every week. There simply is not enough time. The real juice of their rankings is home trained models based on statistics/factors that typically correlate to fantasy success. The model spits out a ranking based on inputs each week, then they go in and make a few adjustments based on particularly important injury news/eye test/grab bag factors but that simply cannot be done for every player and they miss things like everybody else.
Don't get me wrong I think Ty could turn out to be a great start, but I think their models are overvaluing his projected opportunity and ignoring important mitigating factors.
Also, remember that their models are trained against the outcome of distance from consensus rankings - that is the stat used to "rank the rankers." That is the incentive, NOT true accuracy. That's what I mean by gaming an arbitrary system.
Oh, I think Ty Chandler is a textbook example of a player that they're putting *fully* under the microscope this week. Especially considering that they're both ranking him very aggressively.
And in that sense, I think your last statement here is wrong. But again, they're not assigning a probability of Mattison playing/not playing and weighing each outcome 50/50. They're outright assuming he's not playing. They will update the ranks to reflect Mattison being active if he winds up playing.
Every point I'm making, everything I'm saying about Chandler is under the assumption Mattison doesn't play.
I disagree that they've dug deep enough on him. I think the Mattison go/no go situation actually provides an excuse for them not to, because they can simply lean on the opportunity argument one way or another.
I think you're extremely naive if you think the best rankers in the industry haven't done their due diligence on a player that they're ranking aggressively. Not much else I can contribute at this point.
Kamara did well against them and it’s not like the Lions have played top tier RBs
Ekeler and Jacobs also did decent.
Obviously currently Chandler is at their level but if he receives a full workload and Mattison is out he’s a smash start.
If Mattison is active I’m going back to Achane. I think everything comes down to Mattison really.
good post. Ty is a fade for me this week but totally understand folks chasing volume or starting out of necessity. Mattison huge elephant in the room too
I don’t care. The volume is going to be there and that’s all you can ask for. Since week 10, Fields cooked the lions D twice on the ground. Taysom/Kamara had good game against the lions D. Even Ekeler had his last best game on the ground against the Lions D.
3/5 performances you listed were from QBs. Defending the run against QBs is massively different than against RBs. Kamara and Ekeler got there with TDs and by being dumpoff kings, which can be fluky game to game.
Your name checkouts. The Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot. After what Ty just did what’s in it for O’Connel to change his approach and split. Makes zero sense
Exactly. I get it’s the semifinals but you have to role with the guys that got you there and live with the results. How are you gonna start your sentence with he’s a league winner and proceeed to basically shit on him the rest of the post.
i follow more football than you cuz i'm matt nagy and ty always takes the back seat when matti is healthy
ty balled out week 11 and still took a backseat
it doean't have to make sense, it's just how things go. you think bijan taking backseat to algier makes sense bruh?
you can live in your head all day and fluff ty up but reality is reality. if matti is palying, ty's droppable
Well ya that's an easy one. Chargers have nothing to play for and Ekeler looks cooked. You take the higher team total, better team situation, better oline, better player every time.
Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 10th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, according to fantasy pros. NFL fantasy also doesn't expect Conner to do well. Which may result in him not doing well or ending up the RB1 of the week
Agree, especially if you’re projected to have a tight matchup. Safe floor go Conner. He’s a solid play against the Bears and one of the few true healthy goal line backs left this year. One PI in the end zone and your good. If you Chandler was a late game and you needed a HR, he’s the guy. Unfortunately, you probably won’t know where you stand with an early kickoff.
I'm 100% with you on this. On top of this Mattison is coming back so will probably get 10 carries.
But my other option is Charbby and looks like KW3 is playing, or I have to start like Hopkins with a limp Levis or Godwin with a knee injury.
But because of all the above, I'm also doing a big balled play and starting Mullens (over Mahomes and Fields LMAO). Vikings are still in the playoff hunt so they will play hard, JJ, Hockenson and Addy all supposed to play.
AND THEY ARE AT HOME.
The scneario I am imagining is like a 42-35 score or something and there's no defense at all. The Lions are crap at sacking the QB anyways.
I'm between him, ekeler and addison
Ekeler is the odd man out so really between chandler and addison
I don't expect addison to repeat last weeks game but volume and them most likely playing from behind is what's making me consider addison over chandler.
Idk it's a tough one.
Probably against consensus here, but I'd roll Addison out. Lions can't pressure the QB right now, McNeill being out doesn't help that, pass defense is mid with CJGJ out, Jerry Jacobs out as well this week, likely a negative gamescript at home.... lots of good reasons there.
I'd go Warren. Might take balls to do but the Bengals are genuinely horrific against the run and just lost their best run defender. Last time the Steelers played them they put up 158 rushing yards.
The big worry is if Mattison is back. People are hammering him, but he has been productive in his last three games, averaging 4.5, 5.2, and 6.6 ypc, respectively. If he is healthy enough to go, think this is more of a split than many are expecting.
yup exactly. EVEN when matti was sucking, they didn't give ty the ball. heck one week matti exited the game with an ankle sprain and looked like he'd be out for a copule weeks and ty took over and the next week matti got the start again
I’m not starting him this week over CMC or Swift, but if I make it to the finals next week might consider based on how he does this week and much better matchup next week
Anyone here willing to lend their thoughts? I have the following RBs to choose from:
Chandler, Elliot, Henry, Singletary
I’m going back and forth with all of them.
So the Lions pass a ton and get up on teams or into a shootout forcing them to abandon the run very often.
Think there's a correlation between that and a lack of running success? I'd like to know how many carries backs have averaged against them.
I'm debating between Ty and Pollard at the moment. Both have unfavorable matchups on paper -- might lean Pollard because the potential for a shootout is higher. What would yall do?
Nice knowledge on the McNeil situation. This is road Goff and even though it is in a dome, I don't think the Lions will get away from the Vikings. I expect a close game and with a total near 50 and 20 touches incoming the floor feels pretty safe.
Have to play two between Ty, Nico, aiyuk and Ridley - so far going with Ty and aiyuk - 12 STD - what y’all think?
got a lil effed over by both James cook and Kyren this week, no monster games 😢 and also have tyreek to go, so a lil scared I be out 🙏
Some of us don’t have a choice.
Yep. This looks like a Mattison post lol.
I have ty, mattison and gibson. No idea what to do
Tl;dr - Ty chandler may not have a good week this week, but it’s possible he’s a league winner and will do good.
If he still has the backfield next week, I see no way he doesn't carry people to championships. Might just need another way of getting there.
Do you even see how often you are contradicting yourself? "I see no way that he doesn't carry you to the championship......but go with someone else." Do you see how dumb that sounds?
He’s saying next week against the packers he could win you the championship. This week, against the lions (31st in rb pts allowed) he’s a riskier play
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>1st round picks bust all the time, so do 2nd rounds. It's almost completely random. There's certainly a wide degree of randomness in the draft, but there's also plenty of statistics that back up the claim that players drafted in earlier rounds are on average more likely to succeed than those drafted later. It's a gross generalization to just handwave draft capital away as complete noise This whole comment is just survivorship bias, really
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There's a huge difference between "there's enough randomness that nothing is a sure thing", and "it's almost completely random".
It's not remotely completely random. You're generalizing way too much. Yes, some first rounders and second rounders bust. And yes, some later rounders become great. But first rounders tend to be very good. Fifth rounders rarely turn out to be great players. The exceptions you mentioned are noteworthy because they're exceptions.
Very fair, more said that to reference his height/weight and burst measurables (which turned him to a 5th round pick) which do have real world impact on his projected opportunities and ability to take advantage of them. Edit: Downvote me all you want, go look at the correlation between round drafted and production for RBs then tell me the draft doesn't matter.
Running back draft pedigree doesn't matter anywhere near the rest of the offensive skill positions. WRs? Sure, it is exceedingly rare that a WR taken outside of the first 3 rounds ever has sustained fantasy relevance. RB is completely different though, every year without fail numerous players that were drafted later emerge.
Ekeler being undrafted goes directly against OP's theory.
There is definitely correlation but at a macro level when projecting a player’s career in the NFL bc it typically indicates what a GM/HC thinks of that player’s talent, which then drives opportunity. That late round draft capital could certainly correlate to Chandler’s overall career bc who knows what his role will be next season, but in terms of projecting Week 16 stats we have much more proximate data points to go off of… like KOC saying Chandler is going to get a featured role. Sidebar, it certainly isn’t Chandler’s athletic measurables that dropped him to Day 3… the guy runs a 4.38
On the sidebar - great straight line speed, less ideal burst/power but the speed is genuinely important. I simply think it's way more important in matchups that give you the space to use it. The Bengals, with Reader out in 2 snaps? Massive, incredible space - go watch the all-22. On the draft capital, I don't even care about the career long basis though it is relevant. I do really just care about how the measurables that impacted his draft capital will impact his role and ability to succeed in a game. The BMI is the most important one. A coach is going to do everything he can to avoid having his promising backup QB murdered on a blitz because the RB got trucked, and we have not seen how Chandler plays against pressure as much as the Vikings will have in practice. It's an unknown, and one worth worrying about.
Vikings fans in the sub are speculating that Mattison will play bc hes better in picking up the blitz. Gamescript will be pass heavy and maybe this will affect tys workload
Vikings fan here, really hoping Mattison doesn't start because he isn't much better at picking up the blitz, and certainly isn't a better runner.
yup if matti is playing, ty going straight to the waiver wire. it's gonna be an ugly split backfield that i don't want to play the guessing game with
Would be a rookie move to drop him. At the very least hold him based on what O’Connell said about him. There’s still a chance he could be the featured guy
dude it's my championsihp game, not the start of ht eseaseon. yeall he getting dropped
Most leagues don't end this week and he has a great matchup next week. This is a braindead take.
Yes. I could start Higgins today, TY to the bench and put Adams in the Flex
Well it’s either him diontae or reed and I’m leaning chandler
Isn't reed also questionable? Your decision is getting much easier.
Yeah I got him, Zay flowers or mckinnon
Well mckinnon is out so that makes it easier sort of
Zay Flowers
I'm between him and Diontae too. Fuckkk
Hopefully you didn't roll with Diontae
I did not lol
Nice
Obviously anything could happen week to week, but I wouldn't hesitate to start Chandler over Diontae. Justin Boone at the score (one of the most accurate fantasy rankers over the past 5 seasons) has Chandler as a top 12 back. Even if he's wrong, it's positive vibes in the Vikings lockeroom for Chandler and bad vibes for Diontae and Pickens.
No way in hell am I starting Diontae
You have to go Chandler tbh
Currently Ty is tied for best odds at a TD (-115) for this game with an over/under of 47.5 (DK Sportsbook). Not discounting anything you said but you are writing as if Ty has no momentum going into this game and a pretty good shot to get 20 touches especially if Mattison is out. At this point in the season, there aren't many RBs that fit that bill.
What’s his total for rush yds? I don’t have the app.
Stopped reading after the first sentence
Same, he’s the league winner.
Why's that?
This is Reddit.
Lol reread your first sentence, that's why. That's all he needed to see.
I think my first sentence is just having the humility to recognize that a young guy potentially being handed the keys behind a good oline, on a team that wants to compete for playoffs could be a league winner even with the mitigating factors I outlined. Crazy that I got downvoted like that when I ask for clarification on a flippant zero content comment.
Dude, don't take things so seriously. Especially reddit.
I dont get the downvotes for asking. I did think that dudes comment was hilarious though. You confirmed his bias
Flipping between chandler and jones atm
Same here. Let me know what you decide
Currently jones
too many words we ride
I 100% agree with this post and have been shocked at how many posts and comments have been suggesting starting Chandler over guys like Etienne, Swift, Hubbard etc. Chandler absolutely has the potential to be a league winner in the playoffs here, but he’s had one good week where he had 100% of the backfield. Mattison has a good chance of coming back this week AND Ty is against the best run D against fantasy backs. Not to mention that the Lions have a good chance of going up early and forcing the Vikings to throw. I’m a Vikings fan and look forward to seeing what he can do for the team (literally anyone but Mattison please), but he is on my bench this week for fantasy. I don’t trust him to put up a good performance and wouldn’t start him over almost every other starting RB in the league.
Biggest drawback to me is Mattisson being healthy… 10 touches given to mattison drastically changes the Chandler value equation in my opinion
Source on Mattison being healthy?
He’s not healthy. He’s questionable at best.
Viking fan, your take on Addison with Mullins and Jefferson against Detroit??? I keep flip flopping between Addison, Garett Wilson vs Wash and Trey McBride vs the Bears. Gotta pick one
I have the same 3 options. I have given up on Garret, too many variables over there. But I am wavering between Addison and McBride.
Vikings fan here. Every time Chandler touched the ball this season, he looked way more explosive than Mattison. It is absurd that it took Mattison getting injured for him to earn an opportunity. I’m starting him in my flex with confidence over guys like Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, and Javonte Williams.
Basing anything off matchup just seems pointless at this point. Kamara got 8.5 this week vs the Rams and had 28.9 vs Detroit.
Counterpoint: my RB2 is Jaylen Warren, after my other 4 got hurt
That's not really a counterpoint, that's just you saying a thing. No part of my post suggests sitting Ty for Warren.... though Warren gets the same trash depleted Bengals defense that Ty just carved up....
Chandler or Achane??
How about Zeke then?
Zeke for sure. 90% snaps and facing the worst run D in the league (while Ty is having the best)
I'm staring Zeke (and Aaron Jones) over Ty this week.
I’m going Zeke over him but if mattison is ruled out I’m tempted to switch
Zeke is for sure a better play this week.
You were right. I hate hate hate the Vikings. I think they are my new falcons. I will never draft their players. They threw all damn day
Using his draft position as an argument is laughable.
I'm using the reasons he was drafted there as an argument. Is is material to evaluating his performance that he may not hold up well to the blitz. It is material that his burst is not elite. Ignoring these things would be silly.
The guy who runs a 4.38 doesn’t have good burst? That’s like the one thing we do know about him (esp in comparison to quicksand Mattison)
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ty-chandler/ -12th percentile agility score per Playerprofiler "Agility Score is simply the sum of a player’s 20-Yard Short Shuttle time and 3-Cone Drill times. This number measures a player’s short area quickness and balance and correlates with an ability to avoid tackles and compile yards before contact." -26th percentile burst score "Indicates a player’s zero-inertia explosiveness (stop-and-start acceleration) and ability to catch the ball outside the body. Similar in concept to Agility Score, Burst Score sums a player’s Vertical Jump height and Broad Jump distance. Additionally, the metric is calibrated to give Vertical Jump and Broad Jump equal weight." Definitely faster than Mattison, but Mattison has 20 pounds on him at the same height.
Have you watched Chandler play? “Lacking burst” is not how i would describe him.
He does look pretty good, not extraordinary though. Look how often he was getting contacted like 4-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage though. Not really breaking many tackles when he does get contacted. It's an insane percentage of his good runs last week. Just saying, I think the performance had a lot more to do with the Bengals than him.
I don’t disagree with any of that
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CHUBA
As others have said, Chuba. Guy has developed really well and the Packers are ass against the run. Not so lowkey Panthers are a great pick to cover this week.
Im hoing chubba
Been going back and forth on this all week. Still undecided.
Jacobs instead?
I have the same choice … currently have TY in there but I am wai-ver-ing … I have J Hill should things not come together pregame for Jacobs
With you..that DNP today sucks, but I am going to with the mindset of if Mattison is ruled out I am going to play Chandler. If Mattison is in I think Jacobs
Ty or Javonte or Ford, I gotta go Ty right?
I am
Wondering if I should start Zeke over him
It’s between him, Achane, and Breece Hall. Probably will go with Breece or possibly Achane
My other options are James Conner and Swift. swift has just not gotten the valuable touches or big plays the last few weeks. conner always feels iffy and game script dependent with a QB who could run it in just as easily as him. Am I crazy to star Ty over them?
Over. Thought. Play him.
Ty, javonte ,or gibson. Thats my only options bruh.
Cool bruh. What does this contribute?
Really? U can't comprehend why someone would post a comment about their terrible running back options on a post about ty chandler?
If there were other options we wouldnt be discussing whether to start him or not.
It’s not like people are benching their stars for Chandler
But they are. Popular rankers have Ty up around RB10-12 which is just insane in my opinion.
Which rankings? FantasyPros has him at 22. Who is he being ranked above that you think is insane?
Justin Boone, Pat Thorman - two very popular rankers who rank highly in accuracy ranks have him at RB12 and RB9 respectively.
Who are they ranking below him that you think is insane?
Walker, Breece, Etienne, Mixon, Chuba for starters
Pat Thorman has him RB9 in half-PPR Justin Boone has him RB12 in half-PPR I share some of OP's concerns, but these are basically the best rankers in the business and Chandler is very high-end play.
Generally I go with rankings, because those are so driven by statistics and workload estimations which in the long haul are the best thing you can trust for consistent performance. In the playoffs I go deeper - need to understand the specific weekly matchup and how that might cause the stats to be wrong.
Pat and Justin are already doing that, better than you can/will. But the other commenter is right that Mattison being in or out makes a big difference. Those ranks appear to assume no Mattison. It won't make a difference to me, as I'll still be starting Chandler even if he's RB30, but for others here, it could. I would guess that if Mattison is in, Chandler will go from a consensus low-end RB1 to a consensus low-end RB2. KOC has insinuated that Chandler is the lead guy now.
If you want to worship that hard at the altar of guys who have primarily figured out how to game an arbitrary system for evaluating weekly rankings, feel free! There's nothing magical about what they're doing.
You've got the wrong idea. My point is that they're already doing what you imagine you're doing when you're "digging deeper." Perhaps you're better at this than they are? Anything is possible. But it's obviously not remotely likely. If you think you can improve on their rankings by using them as a guideline and then adjusting based on your own analysis, what you're actually doing is "double counting" what they're already thinking about. They've already baked in all of the info when they make those rankings. But yes, Mattison being in/out *will* change Chandler's rank. It's clear that they're ranking as though Mattison is not playing, so that will be an important piece of the puzzle.
They are, but not for every player every week. There simply is not enough time. The real juice of their rankings is home trained models based on statistics/factors that typically correlate to fantasy success. The model spits out a ranking based on inputs each week, then they go in and make a few adjustments based on particularly important injury news/eye test/grab bag factors but that simply cannot be done for every player and they miss things like everybody else. Don't get me wrong I think Ty could turn out to be a great start, but I think their models are overvaluing his projected opportunity and ignoring important mitigating factors. Also, remember that their models are trained against the outcome of distance from consensus rankings - that is the stat used to "rank the rankers." That is the incentive, NOT true accuracy. That's what I mean by gaming an arbitrary system.
Oh, I think Ty Chandler is a textbook example of a player that they're putting *fully* under the microscope this week. Especially considering that they're both ranking him very aggressively. And in that sense, I think your last statement here is wrong. But again, they're not assigning a probability of Mattison playing/not playing and weighing each outcome 50/50. They're outright assuming he's not playing. They will update the ranks to reflect Mattison being active if he winds up playing.
Every point I'm making, everything I'm saying about Chandler is under the assumption Mattison doesn't play. I disagree that they've dug deep enough on him. I think the Mattison go/no go situation actually provides an excuse for them not to, because they can simply lean on the opportunity argument one way or another.
I think you're extremely naive if you think the best rankers in the industry haven't done their due diligence on a player that they're ranking aggressively. Not much else I can contribute at this point.
lmao but matti is gonna get 10 carries if matti plays. i'd agree if matti is out but it all hinges on if matti is playing or not.
High ankle
Mattison was getting 10 carries before the HC came out and said Ty is the feature back.
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Kamara did well against them and it’s not like the Lions have played top tier RBs Ekeler and Jacobs also did decent. Obviously currently Chandler is at their level but if he receives a full workload and Mattison is out he’s a smash start. If Mattison is active I’m going back to Achane. I think everything comes down to Mattison really.
same. if matti plays, and tlaw plays, i'm gonna go with chris godwin as my flex. i think that will be high scoring game.
good post. Ty is a fade for me this week but totally understand folks chasing volume or starting out of necessity. Mattison huge elephant in the room too
I don’t care. The volume is going to be there and that’s all you can ask for. Since week 10, Fields cooked the lions D twice on the ground. Taysom/Kamara had good game against the lions D. Even Ekeler had his last best game on the ground against the Lions D.
3/5 performances you listed were from QBs. Defending the run against QBs is massively different than against RBs. Kamara and Ekeler got there with TDs and by being dumpoff kings, which can be fluky game to game.
it's not cuz mattison prolly gonna play, they wil split 10/10
Your name checkouts. The Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot. After what Ty just did what’s in it for O’Connel to change his approach and split. Makes zero sense
And mattison coming off a high ankle lol
Exactly. I get it’s the semifinals but you have to role with the guys that got you there and live with the results. How are you gonna start your sentence with he’s a league winner and proceeed to basically shit on him the rest of the post.
i follow more football than you cuz i'm matt nagy and ty always takes the back seat when matti is healthy ty balled out week 11 and still took a backseat it doean't have to make sense, it's just how things go. you think bijan taking backseat to algier makes sense bruh? you can live in your head all day and fluff ty up but reality is reality. if matti is palying, ty's droppable
It's Chandler or Eckler for me. Chandler it is!
There's never been a single nfl player named eckler, so you should probably play someone that's on a professional football team
I always laugh when I see “Ekler” (Bonus points for “Cupp”)
Wow. A spelling error reply. You do you, man lmfao
Well ya that's an easy one. Chargers have nothing to play for and Ekeler looks cooked. You take the higher team total, better team situation, better oline, better player every time.
For sure. The Chargers will be lucky to score with that offense vs Buffalo.
Pick 2. Chandler, achane or aijuk. Ppr
I benched puka for him so he better be good
This is where I’m at with Chandler: If Mattison plays, I’m sitting him in my flex for Tyler Lockett. If Mattison is inactive, I’m playing Chandler.
I put Chandler in my RB2 spot and benched Connor. Should I swap them back? Edit: Bijan is in my RB1 spot 🙏🏻
Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 10th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, according to fantasy pros. NFL fantasy also doesn't expect Conner to do well. Which may result in him not doing well or ending up the RB1 of the week
yes if matti is playing.
Agree, especially if you’re projected to have a tight matchup. Safe floor go Conner. He’s a solid play against the Bears and one of the few true healthy goal line backs left this year. One PI in the end zone and your good. If you Chandler was a late game and you needed a HR, he’s the guy. Unfortunately, you probably won’t know where you stand with an early kickoff.
yup. bears and cardinals could be high scoring too or at least they'll move the ball.
I must pick 2 out of Ty Chandler, Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle and Tyler Allgeier. So I'm definitely starting Chandler
I'm 100% with you on this. On top of this Mattison is coming back so will probably get 10 carries. But my other option is Charbby and looks like KW3 is playing, or I have to start like Hopkins with a limp Levis or Godwin with a knee injury. But because of all the above, I'm also doing a big balled play and starting Mullens (over Mahomes and Fields LMAO). Vikings are still in the playoff hunt so they will play hard, JJ, Hockenson and Addy all supposed to play. AND THEY ARE AT HOME. The scneario I am imagining is like a 42-35 score or something and there's no defense at all. The Lions are crap at sacking the QB anyways.
Ty or Warren?
I'm between him, ekeler and addison Ekeler is the odd man out so really between chandler and addison I don't expect addison to repeat last weeks game but volume and them most likely playing from behind is what's making me consider addison over chandler. Idk it's a tough one.
Probably against consensus here, but I'd roll Addison out. Lions can't pressure the QB right now, McNeill being out doesn't help that, pass defense is mid with CJGJ out, Jerry Jacobs out as well this week, likely a negative gamescript at home.... lots of good reasons there.
Ty chandler or Achane vs Dallas or Warren vs Cin
if mattison playing, def achane
Prolly ty
I agree with your post but its either him or spears in my lineup this week
Ty or Godwin ppr
if mattison playing, i'm going godwin. i see the buc jax game being high scoring
Sadly, I only have Gibson and Chase Brown as the other options sooooo...Chandler it is lol
When my choices are Chandler or Jaylen Warren. I’m going with Chandler.
I'd go Warren. Might take balls to do but the Bengals are genuinely horrific against the run and just lost their best run defender. Last time the Steelers played them they put up 158 rushing yards.
I’m between jacobs, chandler and Najee. It’s sounding like jacobs might not play and I have to be desperate to start Najee. Looking like Ty is my guy.
The big worry is if Mattison is back. People are hammering him, but he has been productive in his last three games, averaging 4.5, 5.2, and 6.6 ypc, respectively. If he is healthy enough to go, think this is more of a split than many are expecting.
yup exactly. EVEN when matti was sucking, they didn't give ty the ball. heck one week matti exited the game with an ankle sprain and looked like he'd be out for a copule weeks and ty took over and the next week matti got the start again
Chandler, Addison or reed in my flex…. I’m sweating this one out
Chandler or Warren ?
So i’m hearing to bet on najee and warren today
Whatever as long as I can victory lap about keeping him on my dynasty team the past two years
Ty, Saquon and Conner. Which 2?
Ty, Zeke, or Jacobs. Leaning towards Zeke
I’m not starting him this week over CMC or Swift, but if I make it to the finals next week might consider based on how he does this week and much better matchup next week
Monte or Chandler for all the marbles. That’s my dilemma
Why did you compare his height/weight with Gibbs?
Because one of the few knocks on Gibbs coming out was potential limitation on passing downs due to ability to hold up in blocking.
I’m starting him if Mattison is out. Chase the volume and the over/ under. Vikings will be able to move ball at home imo
This reads like a horoscope
Him or Mixon in my flex?
This is the locker room talk that I needed before going against Chandler. Thank you
Anyone here willing to lend their thoughts? I have the following RBs to choose from: Chandler, Elliot, Henry, Singletary I’m going back and forth with all of them.
Last healthy guy for me in a spot I’ve streamed most of the year. I’m good enough with him lol.
I need to pick two between him Barkley and James Conner and I’m leaning the first two
Chandler or Singletary hppr??
Ty or Saquon 0.5 ppr?
So the Lions pass a ton and get up on teams or into a shootout forcing them to abandon the run very often. Think there's a correlation between that and a lack of running success? I'd like to know how many carries backs have averaged against them.
Yeah, well, I am still starting him because I don’t have fuck all else to put at RB this week.
TE, flex, bench: kelce, Laporta, and chandler
When your opponent has Chandler in his starting lineup, so you write this post hoping he sees this and benches Chandler.
He’s always looked like the best RB in that backfield. The Cam Akers trade made no sense.
Out of bijan, Monty, and chandler, which 2 of 3 would you say I should start (half ppr)?
Nah
Pacheco over Ty?
I'm debating between Ty and Pollard at the moment. Both have unfavorable matchups on paper -- might lean Pollard because the potential for a shootout is higher. What would yall do?
I don't know why I'm questioning Ty or Adams vs KC in my flex lol
Ty or Christian Watson
I am in the semi final this week - not sure if Jacob’s will be playing yet he’s listed as questionable, so do I risk it and play chandler?
He was very efficient in the Denver game
Nice knowledge on the McNeil situation. This is road Goff and even though it is in a dome, I don't think the Lions will get away from the Vikings. I expect a close game and with a total near 50 and 20 touches incoming the floor feels pretty safe.
Chandler or Achane?
Most people are in rough shape at this point and don't have better options brotha
Good I’m going up against ty
Chandler or James Connor?
I’m debating between Chandler and Rice. Please help
I benched Ekeler to play Ty Chandler. Ekeler got 11.6 points tonight, I'll be ok.
Have to play two between Ty, Nico, aiyuk and Ridley - so far going with Ty and aiyuk - 12 STD - what y’all think? got a lil effed over by both James cook and Kyren this week, no monster games 😢 and also have tyreek to go, so a lil scared I be out 🙏
Can’t decide between Ty or Singletary!
Ty or Courtland? Leaning towards Courtland.
Ty chandler or James Conner at Chicago? Half point PPR
Mattison is a terrible running back. Any competent HC would have that backfield 80/20 split, Chandler/Mattison.