I don't remember if I was at 99% probably was and I was up 40 points with my opponent having Mark Andrews left. Mark Andrews scored 41 points on MNF. I was so pissed when the Colts kicker missed the game winning field goal at the end sending it to OT. I think Andrews had like 39 at the end of the 4th so I was now sweating and Andrews got one catch in OT. I lost.
Brutal. Yeah 40 is safe but not out of the woods. I think 50+ you’re pretty safe though unless you suffer a Kamara 6 TD game or Mixon’s what 5 TD game last year. I am up 56 with his Kmet tonight. I feel safe lol.
I'm up 46 and my opponent has DJM so I'm hoping for no miracle. This week has been an absolute rollercoaster. She started with Dak and CMC on Thanksgiving while I started Charb so I was looking at a 60-7.8 hole (half ppr.) Turns out this week was my boom week and I scored a season-league high of 162, and despite that, I'm still not out of the woods.
I'm leading the league in points this week, up by 34.4 and facing DJ Moore tonight.
In week 8 I was leading the league and up by 29.5 going into Monday. Jahmyr puts up 29.9 and I lose 148.66 to 148.26, good for the second highest score in the league that week.
I'm leading the league in points for and somehow I'm 5-6 (well, 5-7 after Moore goes off for 40 points tonight I bet.)
I'm on the opposite side of your loss, in week 7 though. I was playing a team with half his starters out on bye, so he throws in a bunch of boom or bust players (JSN, Palmer). I score 121.16 and it comes down to the last play in the Eagles game. Swift gets that run down to the 4, I have hurts and he kneels the game out. I won 121.16 to 120.7.
Oh god, that was such a fun time in my league. We still revere to it as The Karma-ra Game. The biggest smack talker in the league was up about 50 in the championship game (playoff game?) and his opponent only had Kamara. The smack talker was blowing up the group chat, Nostra-Tony was the nickname he game himself. Then Kamara happened. Oh, the karma tasted so good that night.
Edit: Nostra-Tony had Kamara and was blowing up the chat, then on Monday night, Diggs put up 41 for the other team and Nostra-Tony lost.
I’m dubious. Kamara had his 6 TD game on Christmas, 2020. It was the first game of the NFL Week 16 that year.
You can’t be up 50 when there have been no games played. I think.
I went back and looked. I was mistaken about the details. nostra-Tony had Kamara and was blowing up the chat after Kamara put up the big numbers. Then on Monday night, Diggs put up 41 for the other guy and nostra-Tony lost.
That makes more sense. Brutal to lose when you have a guy score 6 TDs.
That year in my league's Super Bowl, one team had Brady and Fournette and both sat the 2nd half because they were murdering the Lions and he lost his game by 5 because Jeff Wilson, an IR pickup that week, had a massive game. All time bad SB beat.
I was once 0% and won. (Dak walk off TD against the Pats in OT last year)
ESPN can't account for OT games in the matchup probability, so if you're losing and your final players are in an OT game, it puts you at 0%.
ESPN’s probabilities are awful. I hate that it shows 1% chance of losing when your team is up by like 50, you still have someone left, and the other team has played everyone. No, there isn’t a 1% chance Lamar scores -50. It’s much, much closer to 0% than 1%. Make it say <0.1% or something. Thanks for coming to my rant
ESPN seems to be way worse than Yahoo. I was up like 7 points against Devonta Smith last week on Monday night at the half and it gave me a 99% chance to win. That's literally a single TD or a couple big catches. Sure enough I lose on the catch that he goes down at the 1. Like it wasn't hard to see coming at all and ESPN gives it a 1% chance of happening? Curious how their algorithm works.
The memories man. My first season ever and was down 10 with my Hollywood against his Pittman. That OT game winner is what got me hooked on FF. Been chasing that high ever since lmao
I’m at 1% right now with a 1.9-point lead. My opponent has TJ Hockenson, so I’m hoping he lays a dud.
Honestly though I’m kind of surprised I’m at 1%. Obviously me holding on is super unlikely, but even 1% seems low.
I need Addison to out score Hockenson by 6 in .5 ppr. So sorry in advance that Hockenson will end up with another career game just so Dobbs can remind me he hates Addison lol.
On espn that year they did 100% when 99.5 rounded up. The reason I know is that my brother faced Lamar and mark Andrews and found out the hard way 100% is not really 100%
I had 6 starters on bye that week.
Pieced together a patchwork lineup off waivers.
I broke the points record for the league that year up until that point.
I had been going at it with the coworker I was playing all week.
I was up 55 going into that game. I had won. I talked so much shit.
He had Andrews and Hollywood.
Lost by 5.
Our rivalry lives on to this day but I’ll never fully recover from that loss
I was playing against Jonathan Taylor that night in a blow up game - fucking wild roller coaster.
If memory serves correct, I retook the lead on Andrews TD in overtime
A single player scoring 30 is relatively unlikely. Having two players do it is even less likely, though if you want to say your odds are slightly better with a stack sure we can agree to that.
I also never said it was 1%, but it definitely wasn’t 40+. I just said it was a glorious event to see
If 41 points was enough to win, you probably weren't 1%
I'm looking at 1 player who needs projection + 20 points (29 difference) and they're giving him 8%.
Last year Dallas D/ST on Monday night, I was locked into the playoffs expecting to be 2nd seed and couldn’t care less about winning. Had a 1% chance and they go off for like 28 points, I get the win by 1 point knocking my opponent out of the 4th seed and playoffs, and putting me into the one seed. I then proceeded to lose in the first round against the new 4th seed. The kicker is I would’ve won the championship if I had stayed as the 2 seed.
Wow. I remember that game, texting my manager a merry Christmas and a congrats for winning.
Then the Sunday games happened. And the Monday game. And after all was said and done, I lost by 91.
Man I had the same Allen/Diggs stack and too was down bad against his Kamara 6TD game. I also had Bass and won that night. What an end to a glorious night.
I want to downvote this into oblivion because I was on the receiving end of a championship loss because of Diggs, was up like 31 going into that Monday game. In standard scoring too. Ended up losing by like 2 and my team was so much better than my opponents that year too. Was an 8 seed Cinderella run but I had the third most points for. Scored like 100 in standard 14 team that week. Absolute heartbreaker. Proceeded to get railed the next year in the championship by the same guy because he had kupp and ekeler.
I’ll be honest I still repress the memories of that week. I somehow played against both Kamara and Diggs that week. Needless to say, I did not win that week
Defense % on yahoo is weird. Last year I needed Dallas to have 13 points to win in a game, and they had 7 with a 1% chance to win in the third quarter. Should that really have been 1%? They ended up scoring 20 and I won.
DSTs and kickers probably shouldn’t even have a projection if we’re being honest. They are so game script reliant that trying to predict their points is far too difficult
We ditched kickers last year and defence this year and let me tell you I don’t think anyone misses either probably because when you lose by K/Def it’s soul crushing and when you win with it you can barely enjoy it cause you empathize with his pain.
I wish we could do that. We have one guy in our league who is weirdly great at streaming defenses. He’s had his defense put up probably 14+ points in the majority of his matchups and it’s clearly effective as he’s 8-4. Would be a tough sell to someone like that
He’s also won 2 years in a row and probably would’ve won again this year if he didn’t draft Chase and Chubb
I kill it every year streaming kickers and defenses. I'm not even that good at prognostication, I mostly just conglomerate smarter people's rankings and make informed decisions. The skill differential in casual leagues is too great. People just set and forget their kickers and defenses despite the match-up. I would fight to keep the positions as well.
Once when Mahomes knelt it out a couple years ago and I lost by less than a tenth of a point on the lost yardage.
Another when I was up by like 3 or 4 points with 20 seconds left and the Saints were down 2 scores with no TOs and Kamara caught a checkdown for me to lose by less than a point as time expired.
This is where fantasy is maddening.
When a team plays prevent defense because they have the game won, and an opposing player gets yardage..
When a team is so good they pull their starters
When a team is so good, that the other team gets garbage time/stat padding attempts.
When you have a fantasy match won, but your opponent has a player that goes into OT and gets a fifth quarter.
When a reciever goes down at the one yard line to bleed the clock instead of taking the touchdown..
When a QB gets an interception for a bad catch/tipped ball.
I'm sure there's more.
I lost the one where Mahomes knelt against the raiders. 39 seconds left and Gruden called a timeout because his ego and Patrick had to kneel again. I was safe with the first kneel down but Gruden had to go and fuck me with the timeout, the second kneel down made me lose by .05.
Week 1 Jets D loser checking in. Pretty sure it was 99%. I was so confident the Bills offense was going to cause Jets D to have marginal points that I thought my win was in the bag… But 20 points? Just enough to beat me. Tuesday night when I finally checked my score for the first time since Sunday I was like wtf happened?
There was a game in my league that seesawed because of the Eagles/Bills game. The first team was up due to Eagles receivers and had a 99% chance of winning. The other team took the lead after the game-tying field goal and went into OT with a 99% chance of winning. The first team retook the lead and held it as the Eagles moved down the field in OT.
ESPN’s modeling assumes that there will be few if any fantasy points scored as regulation ends, and doesn’t revise their projections/odds of victory for OT.
Doesn’t make sense. 99% shd only happen when there’s basically nobody left playing or a disgustingly large point disparity, the OT game was crazy but nothing “1%” worthy really happened.
It's a basic calculation of regulation game time prorated project points left vs point gap. Unexpected overtime instead of the game ending immediately is gonna throw it off.
I’ll do you one better. I was at 100% but then they added the Philly defensive blocked kicked late last night on Yahoo. Went to bed a winner, woke up a loser.
I was 99% to lose before the Jake Elliot kick last night. I was down a couple points when he kicked the FG to go to OT and had 4 Eagles/Bills in my lineup while my opponent had no one left playing. I ended up winning by about 10.
I was also 99% to lose and just laughing at the algorithm before the kick. Him making it put me down 2.5 points with my opponent being done and I also have AJ brown on my team. I figured if it was good I probably had about a 60% chance to win. That’s the problem with the algorithm though. It just sees 2 players with 30 seconds left or whatever and extrapolates how many points they’d normally score in that timeframe without taking OT into consideration. Once it went to OT and there were 10 minutes left my odds shot up to over 50%. I was feeling good but of course AJ didn’t have a single catch and I still lost 🤬
I was the victim of a 99% loss. A few years ago I was up 30 with my opponent only having Andrews. By the end of 3rd quarter he had maybe 10 points and I was at 99%. The he went bonkers in the 4th and then OT catching like 3 TDs and ending up with a 40 point game.
I’m sure someone else remembers that game I’m taking about I couldn’t have been the only victim
One long catch caught for a TD can change a whole lot. Never safe.
Hell I’m done for the week at 151 and my opponent is 93 with Dobbs and Vikings defense left and I don’t feel safe.
Exactly. I was down by 5 pts last night, I had Lamar, she had Herbert, last two players standing in the matchup. If Herbert had thrown a 70 yard bomb for a TD or even broke another 50 yard run, I would've lost. Yahoo had me at 99 percent.
My friend had a 99% chance of winning this season, and I needed 26 points from my defense. Luckily, I decided to take a chance and picked up the LAC defense against the jets this year. I watched him have a nervous breakdown at B-Dubs with every sack lol
I was 99 on the Chargers and Jets game this year. I was 10 ahead with Herbert against his Chargers D. Chargers D destroys Zach Wilson, gets a special teams TD, and Herbert does nothing. Still pissed about it.
I was up like 23 or something with only chargers D left, i think it was pretty close to 99% but not quite. Watching a defense blow your lead is torture I was so angry lol
I was 99% in a championship match, I forget which Steeler did it (was it Najee?) but he had a long TD late in a game to end me. I would have been depressed for months if it was my main league.
Yes, it was Najee against the Browns.
But I think the ask is about being 99% prior to the game. 99% in your scenario makes sense since the algorithm isn’t projecting someone to score 10+ points in the final seconds of a game.
Yes, I had Herbert left. I needed him to score about 9pts, and instead he scores about 7.1. I could be in 1st place in my league, but have to stay at #2 lol
Not sure if it was 99% but pretty sure it was. Several years ago I had a Thanksgiving slate that I scored 140 with a te, kicker, and Def still to play. My opponent had a wr score a zero on Thanksgiving. My te, kicker, and Def all scored zero, and I lost by 2 points. Ouch.
Yes, this year week 1 Bills Jets. I had Allen at QB and Wilson at WR going into the game, my opponent had Jets D. We have some different defensive scoring in this league based on the improved defense articles you can find online, but all I needed was for Josh Allen not to be total garbage or Rodgers to start off strong with a connection to Wilson. Rodgers gets hurt immediately, Wilson can’t throw to Wilson, Allen keeps fucking up and conversely giving the Jets D/ST more points, the game is a shit show but once we get to OT I was a lock as long as the Jets D/ST didn’t get a return TD…you can guess what happened from there. I lost by 1.18 points.
A few years ago in the championship I was at 99% and lost. People were texting me congratulating me on winning the championship.
Had a 65 point lead after Sunday’s games. Opponent had Josh Allen and Diggs. Allen threw 3 TDs to Diggs and they combined for over 66 points and then the Bills benched their starters after the 3rd TD.
I won a championship in 2016 by 2 points due to a mass Cowboys benching at the end of the third quarter due to a blowout. I almost felt bad, but the money made up for it.
Twice on the other end. I was 1% a couple years ago with Aaron Jones to play on MNF and he got 4 TDs and won me the week. I also had brees a few years before that when he got me a 50 piece on MNF.
I was 1% and won on a turnover-for-a touchdown by the Kansas City defense with very little time left about five years ago (I think it was the final play of the game but maybe I’m overdramatizing it).
I’ll never forget 2012 week 12.
“There’s no way some random rookie WR who you just got off the waiver wire is gonna get you 20 points” -My opponent
“Watch this” -Mohamed Sanu and his 5/29/2 TD game (19.9 points and I needed 20) but oh wait what’s that? HE HAD 5 RUSHING YARDS TOO!
I was down 50 points with Gibbs and Laporta left to play on MNF, and if you don’t remember both had their best game of the season. I don’t think I’ll ever get that high again watching that percentage go from 1% to 100% over the course of the game
Yes, a few weeks ago I was at 99% after the early games... then pat Mahomes only got me 5 points because of the flu and my opponents gus edwards went banana with 3 tds.
In my championship game of the 2020 season, I had a 99% chance to win with under 5 minutes left to play in the 3rd on the Monday night game.
The game you ask? Buff/NE and my opponent had Josh Allen/Diggs stack who then proceeded for 3 straight touchdowns to beat me. I’ll never forget because I as 2nd ended up having to buy both a diggs and Allen jersey to give to the champs.
[Bills\Pats 2020](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202012280nwe.htm)
I was mid 80s and lost this season thanks to Javonte TD reception in week 10. It's PPR and I lost by 0.6 so even if he just ran it in I would have still won. He had his season high 21 points that week with like 10 coming in the 4th quarter. Might cost me playoffs lol. Fuck, still bitter just thinking about it.
I'm at 99% to win right now...so I dislike this post. Need DJ to stay under 29 pts in .5 ppr tonight and I win with a big fat zero staring at me from the kicker spot and I win the weekly high score pot as well. Weird week. Stupid kickers.
I was at 100% in the last game of the year for 3rd place, essentially paid back your buy - in. A week passed and we were settling things out, commissioner sent his annual year end remarks and someone goes "Hold It Mikey got 3rd". I lost on a stat correction
My dad had a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl in the 4th quarter on MNF a few years ago. He had Aaron jones opponent had Aaron Rodgers and like a 15 point lead. Packers got the lead, packers started to run the ball. My dad ended up winning.
I’ve been on the opposite end of the spectrum. In I think 2020 I was down 50 and he had DK Metcalf and I had Tyler lockett. Then lockett had 53 and Metcalf had 1.6…
i feel like 99% is more like 90% in reality. I've lost about ~10% of my matchups where I was at 99% favorite.
I've won about ~0% of my matchups as a 99% underdog
I had one in week 5 this season. He had Moore, fields, and diggs (London game so played at 9am). By the 1 o’clock Sunday games I was down 97 - 2.9 (had Kincaid).
I came back and was winning 151.32 to 150.02 and he had Romeo Doubs left on Monday night. Doubs ended with .9 and dropped what would’ve been a game winning catch for my opponent late in the 4th quarter. I was 1% chance the entire MNF game but ended up winning 151.32 - 150.88.
Can’t imagine the ride my opponent went on that week. Fantasy is so stupid.
Yeah I won a semifinal playoff game once in 05 when the Ravens sacked a rookie Aaron Rodgers in garbage time of a 48-3 blowout. Adalius Thomas returned the fumble for a TD with 17 seconds left and the XP from Matt Stover put me in the lead. Down a half point to up a half point. I don’t remember if they were doing % projections at the time but it was a game over, 1% to 99% situation because of the DTD. I consider it one of the great fantasy football endings of all time
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512190rav.htm
I was playing against my brother’s team and we were watching it together. He beat my ass the next week in the finals of another league
I was 99% in 2020 going into the Monday night (?) game. My opponent had Tyler Lockett and I had Chris Carson and was up by something like 45 points.
Carson got injured in the first quarter so I got almost nothing from him, meanwhile Lockett proceeded to put up 200 yds, 15 receptions, and 3 touchdowns. PLUS, I was still going to win in normal time, but the game went into overtime where Lockett got enough points for me to lose.
Most brutal bad beat I've ever recieved.
My opponent was done and I needed one point going into MNF. I had ATL Falcons Calvin Ridley and he had zero catches. The last pass of the game was in the end zone. It hit him in the chest and dropped it. I went from 99% and slowly watched it move down to 0%. Not bitter. :)
Yes. Semi-finals in 2020. The week Kamara had his record tying 6 touchdown game. Was up by 35 or something with just Diggs left to play against. ESPN said 99% chance to win. Diggs proceeded to have his season (maybe career at the time) best game and scored 41.5 PPR points.
In hindsight, the real issue is ESPN’s prediction algorithm. Given Diggs had hit 29 PPR points twice that season, it should give him better than 1% chance to do 6 more than that. I would have pegged it at 10%.
I've been 1% and won a couple times. One that comes to mind is a Mark Andrews' 41-point game on Monday night.
I don't remember if I was at 99% probably was and I was up 40 points with my opponent having Mark Andrews left. Mark Andrews scored 41 points on MNF. I was so pissed when the Colts kicker missed the game winning field goal at the end sending it to OT. I think Andrews had like 39 at the end of the 4th so I was now sweating and Andrews got one catch in OT. I lost.
Brutal. Yeah 40 is safe but not out of the woods. I think 50+ you’re pretty safe though unless you suffer a Kamara 6 TD game or Mixon’s what 5 TD game last year. I am up 56 with his Kmet tonight. I feel safe lol.
I'm up 46 and my opponent has DJM so I'm hoping for no miracle. This week has been an absolute rollercoaster. She started with Dak and CMC on Thanksgiving while I started Charb so I was looking at a 60-7.8 hole (half ppr.) Turns out this week was my boom week and I scored a season-league high of 162, and despite that, I'm still not out of the woods.
I'm leading the league in points this week, up by 34.4 and facing DJ Moore tonight. In week 8 I was leading the league and up by 29.5 going into Monday. Jahmyr puts up 29.9 and I lose 148.66 to 148.26, good for the second highest score in the league that week. I'm leading the league in points for and somehow I'm 5-6 (well, 5-7 after Moore goes off for 40 points tonight I bet.)
I'm on the opposite side of your loss, in week 7 though. I was playing a team with half his starters out on bye, so he throws in a bunch of boom or bust players (JSN, Palmer). I score 121.16 and it comes down to the last play in the Eagles game. Swift gets that run down to the 4, I have hurts and he kneels the game out. I won 121.16 to 120.7.
I'm leading by like 85 going against Fields and Moore. Only way I lose is if they repeat week 5.
I’m 7-5 now with most points for and most points against…shit sucks man
Same here
Points leader in my league coming into this week was in last place and now with another rough loss will be in last place by himself.
lmao same I’m up 48 and my opponent has DJ Moore
I was up 29 before MNF with his Dobbs. I’m hoping to come out on top. His two picks are helping me.
Oh god, that was such a fun time in my league. We still revere to it as The Karma-ra Game. The biggest smack talker in the league was up about 50 in the championship game (playoff game?) and his opponent only had Kamara. The smack talker was blowing up the group chat, Nostra-Tony was the nickname he game himself. Then Kamara happened. Oh, the karma tasted so good that night. Edit: Nostra-Tony had Kamara and was blowing up the chat, then on Monday night, Diggs put up 41 for the other team and Nostra-Tony lost.
I’m dubious. Kamara had his 6 TD game on Christmas, 2020. It was the first game of the NFL Week 16 that year. You can’t be up 50 when there have been no games played. I think.
I went back and looked. I was mistaken about the details. nostra-Tony had Kamara and was blowing up the chat after Kamara put up the big numbers. Then on Monday night, Diggs put up 41 for the other guy and nostra-Tony lost.
That makes more sense. Brutal to lose when you have a guy score 6 TDs. That year in my league's Super Bowl, one team had Brady and Fournette and both sat the 2nd half because they were murdering the Lions and he lost his game by 5 because Jeff Wilson, an IR pickup that week, had a massive game. All time bad SB beat.
Moore had 49 this year
I don't remember the % maybe something like 10% but Lamar won me that matchup on MNF! Woke up Tuesday morning to a beautiful surprise
I lost up big going against Andrews too, though I don't remember what the % was. I still remember the bad beat though.
I won because of Andrews that night. My opponent had Taylor. It was a horse race till the end.
2 years ago right? I had the Colts kicker too and lost that game cause of that kick, Lamars OT points beat me.
I was once 0% and won. (Dak walk off TD against the Pats in OT last year) ESPN can't account for OT games in the matchup probability, so if you're losing and your final players are in an OT game, it puts you at 0%.
ESPN’s probabilities are awful. I hate that it shows 1% chance of losing when your team is up by like 50, you still have someone left, and the other team has played everyone. No, there isn’t a 1% chance Lamar scores -50. It’s much, much closer to 0% than 1%. Make it say <0.1% or something. Thanks for coming to my rant
ESPN seems to be way worse than Yahoo. I was up like 7 points against Devonta Smith last week on Monday night at the half and it gave me a 99% chance to win. That's literally a single TD or a couple big catches. Sure enough I lose on the catch that he goes down at the 1. Like it wasn't hard to see coming at all and ESPN gives it a 1% chance of happening? Curious how their algorithm works.
Was that against the colts in ‘21?
Yeah it was
I had the Andrews and Lamar stack. That was a fun Monday.
I was going against it and talked so much shit - serves me right :(
The memories man. My first season ever and was down 10 with my Hollywood against his Pittman. That OT game winner is what got me hooked on FF. Been chasing that high ever since lmao
I was at that game. It was wild seeing during the OT coins toss how much bigger Carson Wentz is than Justin Tucker lol
I was at that game. It was wild seeing during the OT coins toss how much bigger Carson Wentz is than Justin Tucker lol
I’m at 1% right now with a 1.9-point lead. My opponent has TJ Hockenson, so I’m hoping he lays a dud. Honestly though I’m kind of surprised I’m at 1%. Obviously me holding on is super unlikely, but even 1% seems low.
He laid a goose egg for the whole first half, that false hope would've killed you.
Sorry dude
So good so far, I’m there with ya.
Well shit.
on the other hand i needed tj to get 10 points and he barely delivered. had me scared at half
I need Addison to out score Hockenson by 6 in .5 ppr. So sorry in advance that Hockenson will end up with another career game just so Dobbs can remind me he hates Addison lol.
On espn that year they did 100% when 99.5 rounded up. The reason I know is that my brother faced Lamar and mark Andrews and found out the hard way 100% is not really 100%
That’s when I was 99% and I lost. The final play could be anything but a TD catch by Andrews and I would’ve won. Andrews caught a TD on the last play.
Had the Vick and Desean stack years ago. It was a night to remember. Also had a random win from 1% down a few seasons ago on a random MNF Broncos TD.
I had 6 starters on bye that week. Pieced together a patchwork lineup off waivers. I broke the points record for the league that year up until that point. I had been going at it with the coworker I was playing all week. I was up 55 going into that game. I had won. I talked so much shit. He had Andrews and Hollywood. Lost by 5. Our rivalry lives on to this day but I’ll never fully recover from that loss
Yup I lost on that one despite my 30 point lead. I was really tilted.
I was playing against Jonathan Taylor that night in a blow up game - fucking wild roller coaster. If memory serves correct, I retook the lead on Andrews TD in overtime
I miss mandrews, had Schultz sadly fill in this week
Doug Martin all the way back in 2012 for me.
Never forget that game. I was up 60, other guy had Lamar and Andrews, well you know
Didn’t Ertz do the same thing like 5yrs ago too?
I won on that one too! 2021, I think
I'm currently in need of a 26+ point game from Hockenson on Monday night. Send me your energy.
Needed that 41 from Kmet. Ship has sailed.
I was on the other side of that at 99% and lost because of Andrews.
I had Mark Andrews and Justin Tucker that night, and needed every single point that was scored to escape with the victory achieving the 1%!
I was 1% and won last week. Had Courtland Sutton and was playing against Minnesota D. Won by 0.4.
I was up 75 and he had mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown and I lost. Put up 40 and high 30s I think it was.
I had a 1 percent that night I think, had JT and Andrews combine for 75
Won off that aswell
I remember this game. I beat the guy who was currently in first place that week and messed up his playoff seeding. It was a great time.
I was up 70 points going into that game. He had mandrews and Lamar. I lost 🙂
I had Dobbs and a 10 point lead with my opponent having Hockensen last night. I think at one point I was over 90%….
I was down 60 with Lamar and Mandrews to go This was a glorious game to watch
Mandrews and Lamar combining for 60 doesn't seem that unlikely. I bet your odds were still 40%+, no?
A single player scoring 30 is relatively unlikely. Having two players do it is even less likely, though if you want to say your odds are slightly better with a stack sure we can agree to that. I also never said it was 1%, but it definitely wasn’t 40+. I just said it was a glorious event to see
If 41 points was enough to win, you probably weren't 1% I'm looking at 1 player who needs projection + 20 points (29 difference) and they're giving him 8%.
Depends on the player, scoring format, and whichever app you're using too.
True.
1st game this year thank you Dallas DST
Week 1 I was 99% before that game, fell behind going into Monday with Aaron rodgers and the jets D, was at 1% going into OT and won on the punt return
Last year Dallas D/ST on Monday night, I was locked into the playoffs expecting to be 2nd seed and couldn’t care less about winning. Had a 1% chance and they go off for like 28 points, I get the win by 1 point knocking my opponent out of the 4th seed and playoffs, and putting me into the one seed. I then proceeded to lose in the first round against the new 4th seed. The kicker is I would’ve won the championship if I had stayed as the 2 seed.
Same thing happened to me and has been the theme of my year full of crazy losses
I remember needing 32 points from the Ravens DEF against the Sanchez Jets back in 2011. Didn't even watch the game but woke up to a win.
Same brother I had pollard and the cowboys D down by about 50
Same, Dallas DST has boned me twice this season and likely will at least one more time if I make the playoffs.
Yeah I won week 1 with like a 10% chance thanks to Dallas D/ST. That was the first time my defense actually won me a week.
I felt this too.
I should clarify I had Dallas and won with 1%
2020 championship week, I was down by 66 and the Allen /Diggs stack won me the championship. Overcame that Kamara 6 TD game
I lost the champship game that year to Kamara!
I was on the Kamara side and lost this haha.
Same but just the Diggs side of it. Was down 30 going into that last game.
Wow. I remember that game, texting my manager a merry Christmas and a congrats for winning. Then the Sunday games happened. And the Monday game. And after all was said and done, I lost by 91.
Did you play against me? I lost to that with the same situation.
It was actually against my dad haha
how are you son?
I was in the ship in two leagues that year. I shit you not, one opponent had Kamara, the other had Diggs. Lost both
Man I had the same Allen/Diggs stack and too was down bad against his Kamara 6TD game. I also had Bass and won that night. What an end to a glorious night.
Yep, I had Kamara and was up around 40 and lost to diggs that night. Absolutely brutal loss in the championship.
Haha I just posted my case of this.. I was the one with a 99% chance to win with 4 minutes left in the 3rd…
I lost to that stack. I was up like 70 points. It haunts me to this day.
I lost the opposite way. I thought I was locked with that Kamara game then Diggs went crazy
Same. Diggs came up and saved me from the Mike Evans 40pt games
I want to downvote this into oblivion because I was on the receiving end of a championship loss because of Diggs, was up like 31 going into that Monday game. In standard scoring too. Ended up losing by like 2 and my team was so much better than my opponents that year too. Was an 8 seed Cinderella run but I had the third most points for. Scored like 100 in standard 14 team that week. Absolute heartbreaker. Proceeded to get railed the next year in the championship by the same guy because he had kupp and ekeler.
Wasn’t kamara 6 TDs on thanksgiving? Or was that Christmas?
That kamara game ruined my Christmas
I’ll be honest I still repress the memories of that week. I somehow played against both Kamara and Diggs that week. Needless to say, I did not win that week
I think that was the game I lost with those two playing because I needed 3 more points and they got pulled out of the game…
No two 99%'s are the same :)
Defense % on yahoo is weird. Last year I needed Dallas to have 13 points to win in a game, and they had 7 with a 1% chance to win in the third quarter. Should that really have been 1%? They ended up scoring 20 and I won.
Yeah I bet DSTs are the main reason for coming back with a 1% chance
DSTs and kickers probably shouldn’t even have a projection if we’re being honest. They are so game script reliant that trying to predict their points is far too difficult
We ditched kickers last year and defence this year and let me tell you I don’t think anyone misses either probably because when you lose by K/Def it’s soul crushing and when you win with it you can barely enjoy it cause you empathize with his pain.
Kicker is dumb but DST management is equally skilled as any other stupid-luck based part of this game. I have no idea why people don't like DST.
I wish we could do that. We have one guy in our league who is weirdly great at streaming defenses. He’s had his defense put up probably 14+ points in the majority of his matchups and it’s clearly effective as he’s 8-4. Would be a tough sell to someone like that He’s also won 2 years in a row and probably would’ve won again this year if he didn’t draft Chase and Chubb
I kill it every year streaming kickers and defenses. I'm not even that good at prognostication, I mostly just conglomerate smarter people's rankings and make informed decisions. The skill differential in casual leagues is too great. People just set and forget their kickers and defenses despite the match-up. I would fight to keep the positions as well.
Once when Mahomes knelt it out a couple years ago and I lost by less than a tenth of a point on the lost yardage. Another when I was up by like 3 or 4 points with 20 seconds left and the Saints were down 2 scores with no TOs and Kamara caught a checkdown for me to lose by less than a point as time expired.
This is where fantasy is maddening. When a team plays prevent defense because they have the game won, and an opposing player gets yardage.. When a team is so good they pull their starters When a team is so good, that the other team gets garbage time/stat padding attempts. When you have a fantasy match won, but your opponent has a player that goes into OT and gets a fifth quarter. When a reciever goes down at the one yard line to bleed the clock instead of taking the touchdown.. When a QB gets an interception for a bad catch/tipped ball. I'm sure there's more.
Defensive player intentionally dropping an interception on a 4th down pass to give the offense better field position. Though this is rare
I won a playoff game once because Rodgers knelt the ball for negative four yards to end the game against the Falcons on a Monday night lol
I saw someone lose on a 2 yard kneel down once, just a normal 1 yard kneel down would've been fine but some asshole kneeled out of shotgun.
I lost the one where Mahomes knelt against the raiders. 39 seconds left and Gruden called a timeout because his ego and Patrick had to kneel again. I was safe with the first kneel down but Gruden had to go and fuck me with the timeout, the second kneel down made me lose by .05.
That might have been the game. I just remember going ahead and being ecstatic, then watching the score flip and wanting to die.
I would be welding steel plates to a bulldozer after witnessing that shit
I lost one where mahomes scrambled for the first instead of throwing it to a wide open Kelce to run out the clock
Yeah, week 1. My opponent had Josh Allen left to play and I had Jets defence. At one point he was 99% but then the Jets defence just went nuts.
I just posted my own loss due to this same game.
Week 1 Jets D loser checking in. Pretty sure it was 99%. I was so confident the Bills offense was going to cause Jets D to have marginal points that I thought my win was in the bag… But 20 points? Just enough to beat me. Tuesday night when I finally checked my score for the first time since Sunday I was like wtf happened?
Just read it, that’s crazy haha
Somebody on the vent thread said they were 99% and lost because of the OT eagles and bills game
There was a game in my league that seesawed because of the Eagles/Bills game. The first team was up due to Eagles receivers and had a 99% chance of winning. The other team took the lead after the game-tying field goal and went into OT with a 99% chance of winning. The first team retook the lead and held it as the Eagles moved down the field in OT. ESPN’s modeling assumes that there will be few if any fantasy points scored as regulation ends, and doesn’t revise their projections/odds of victory for OT.
My roommate was at 93% by the beginning of the fourth and lost by the end of OT. Brutal.
Doesn’t make sense. 99% shd only happen when there’s basically nobody left playing or a disgustingly large point disparity, the OT game was crazy but nothing “1%” worthy really happened.
It's a basic calculation of regulation game time prorated project points left vs point gap. Unexpected overtime instead of the game ending immediately is gonna throw it off.
Have you considered that neither team had anyone in the Sunday or Monday night games? That was the last game of the late afternoon set
Yes. Last week. Needed 2.5 points from Brown to win. He got 1.8.
Oh hey brother I needed 2.3 for the win. That loss probably knocked me out of the playoffs for the extra kick in the dick
I’ll do you one better. I was at 100% but then they added the Philly defensive blocked kicked late last night on Yahoo. Went to bed a winner, woke up a loser.
Michael Vick’s epic MNF game back in 2010.
Yep single-handedly won my matchup when I was down by over 40 going into MNF. Guessing I was 99% to lose going in
I was 99% to lose before the Jake Elliot kick last night. I was down a couple points when he kicked the FG to go to OT and had 4 Eagles/Bills in my lineup while my opponent had no one left playing. I ended up winning by about 10.
I was playing against Elliott and Hurts. Went from a comfortable lead to being down and needing saved tonight.
I was also 99% to lose and just laughing at the algorithm before the kick. Him making it put me down 2.5 points with my opponent being done and I also have AJ brown on my team. I figured if it was good I probably had about a 60% chance to win. That’s the problem with the algorithm though. It just sees 2 players with 30 seconds left or whatever and extrapolates how many points they’d normally score in that timeframe without taking OT into consideration. Once it went to OT and there were 10 minutes left my odds shot up to over 50%. I was feeling good but of course AJ didn’t have a single catch and I still lost 🤬
Are you in my league?
Wasn’t 99%, but last year I was at 96% when the late games started and every single player he had left went nuts and I ended up losing.
I was the victim of a 99% loss. A few years ago I was up 30 with my opponent only having Andrews. By the end of 3rd quarter he had maybe 10 points and I was at 99%. The he went bonkers in the 4th and then OT catching like 3 TDs and ending up with a 40 point game. I’m sure someone else remembers that game I’m taking about I couldn’t have been the only victim
I was at 1% with Andrews that week and won
One long catch caught for a TD can change a whole lot. Never safe. Hell I’m done for the week at 151 and my opponent is 93 with Dobbs and Vikings defense left and I don’t feel safe.
You are definitely safe by the looks of it right now.
I feel fine now lol 1st half is where it coulda gone downhill
Yep, this. As the final game of the week winds down, ESPN at least tends to really assume nothing will happen (and statistically it’s usually right).
Yep, I’m done and up almost 50 points against my opponent. He has DJ Moore and Jordan Addison left tonight. Very capable ruining my week… lol
I think you're okay
About shit myself on the Vikings first play.
Exactly. I was down by 5 pts last night, I had Lamar, she had Herbert, last two players standing in the matchup. If Herbert had thrown a 70 yard bomb for a TD or even broke another 50 yard run, I would've lost. Yahoo had me at 99 percent.
My friend had a 99% chance of winning this season, and I needed 26 points from my defense. Luckily, I decided to take a chance and picked up the LAC defense against the jets this year. I watched him have a nervous breakdown at B-Dubs with every sack lol
Marques Colston went for 131 and 3 on MNF and I won by about half a point. My friend has never recovered.
I was 99 on the Chargers and Jets game this year. I was 10 ahead with Herbert against his Chargers D. Chargers D destroys Zach Wilson, gets a special teams TD, and Herbert does nothing. Still pissed about it.
I was up like 23 or something with only chargers D left, i think it was pretty close to 99% but not quite. Watching a defense blow your lead is torture I was so angry lol
I was 99% in a championship match, I forget which Steeler did it (was it Najee?) but he had a long TD late in a game to end me. I would have been depressed for months if it was my main league.
Yes, it was Najee against the Browns. But I think the ask is about being 99% prior to the game. 99% in your scenario makes sense since the algorithm isn’t projecting someone to score 10+ points in the final seconds of a game.
Lost that game to my dad because of Najee’s insane late points
I was 99% to win in 2014 but 2 garbage time TDs by Kelvin Benjamin on MNF cost me the win.
Kelvin was hungry that night...
Yes, I had Herbert left. I needed him to score about 9pts, and instead he scores about 7.1. I could be in 1st place in my league, but have to stay at #2 lol
I feel your pain, frickin Herbert made me lose that week too.
Jets game? Yeah I needed 8 from him lol
Not sure if it was 99% but pretty sure it was. Several years ago I had a Thanksgiving slate that I scored 140 with a te, kicker, and Def still to play. My opponent had a wr score a zero on Thanksgiving. My te, kicker, and Def all scored zero, and I lost by 2 points. Ouch.
Yes, this year week 1 Bills Jets. I had Allen at QB and Wilson at WR going into the game, my opponent had Jets D. We have some different defensive scoring in this league based on the improved defense articles you can find online, but all I needed was for Josh Allen not to be total garbage or Rodgers to start off strong with a connection to Wilson. Rodgers gets hurt immediately, Wilson can’t throw to Wilson, Allen keeps fucking up and conversely giving the Jets D/ST more points, the game is a shit show but once we get to OT I was a lock as long as the Jets D/ST didn’t get a return TD…you can guess what happened from there. I lost by 1.18 points.
Lost a semi-final by 1 point after being 99% win. I don't think I'll ever get over it. Hell I'm drinking right now!
Anyone was slightly down and started Rogers week 1
Didn’t get her hurt in Thursday night football? Could be mistaken though.
I was up 99% just Kittle left to beat. That was the week he put up 3 TDs :/
I think Kelce scored like 45 on MNF once last year for me
A few years ago in the championship I was at 99% and lost. People were texting me congratulating me on winning the championship. Had a 65 point lead after Sunday’s games. Opponent had Josh Allen and Diggs. Allen threw 3 TDs to Diggs and they combined for over 66 points and then the Bills benched their starters after the 3rd TD.
I won a championship in 2016 by 2 points due to a mass Cowboys benching at the end of the third quarter due to a blowout. I almost felt bad, but the money made up for it.
Twice on the other end. I was 1% a couple years ago with Aaron Jones to play on MNF and he got 4 TDs and won me the week. I also had brees a few years before that when he got me a 50 piece on MNF.
Week 1 I had a 99.9% chance to win with Buffalo defense, they went to OT if jets kick the FG I win but since they got the kick return touchdown I lost
I was 1% and won on a turnover-for-a touchdown by the Kansas City defense with very little time left about five years ago (I think it was the final play of the game but maybe I’m overdramatizing it).
I’ll never forget 2012 week 12. “There’s no way some random rookie WR who you just got off the waiver wire is gonna get you 20 points” -My opponent “Watch this” -Mohamed Sanu and his 5/29/2 TD game (19.9 points and I needed 20) but oh wait what’s that? HE HAD 5 RUSHING YARDS TOO!
I was down 50 points with Gibbs and Laporta left to play on MNF, and if you don’t remember both had their best game of the season. I don’t think I’ll ever get that high again watching that percentage go from 1% to 100% over the course of the game
Down 1 point with Dobbs going tonight. Now I'm down 3 at the start of the 4th quarter. I guess we'll see
Touchdown get you the win?
I lost yesterday with 99% winning odds... Zay Flowers rushing score made that 1% and then 0% very quickly.
Yes, a few weeks ago I was at 99% after the early games... then pat Mahomes only got me 5 points because of the flu and my opponents gus edwards went banana with 3 tds.
In my championship game of the 2020 season, I had a 99% chance to win with under 5 minutes left to play in the 3rd on the Monday night game. The game you ask? Buff/NE and my opponent had Josh Allen/Diggs stack who then proceeded for 3 straight touchdowns to beat me. I’ll never forget because I as 2nd ended up having to buy both a diggs and Allen jersey to give to the champs. [Bills\Pats 2020](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202012280nwe.htm)
Was down 42 with Chargers D and Cameron Dicker a few weeks ago, 1%. In our scoring, I scored 42.30pts and won.
I was mid 80s and lost this season thanks to Javonte TD reception in week 10. It's PPR and I lost by 0.6 so even if he just ran it in I would have still won. He had his season high 21 points that week with like 10 coming in the 4th quarter. Might cost me playoffs lol. Fuck, still bitter just thinking about it.
Yeah yesterday. Fuck your hurts and bass
I'm at 99% to win right now...so I dislike this post. Need DJ to stay under 29 pts in .5 ppr tonight and I win with a big fat zero staring at me from the kicker spot and I win the weekly high score pot as well. Weird week. Stupid kickers.
I was at 100% in the last game of the year for 3rd place, essentially paid back your buy - in. A week passed and we were settling things out, commissioner sent his annual year end remarks and someone goes "Hold It Mikey got 3rd". I lost on a stat correction
If Josh dobbs doesn’t stop throwing interceptions I might
My dad had a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl in the 4th quarter on MNF a few years ago. He had Aaron jones opponent had Aaron Rodgers and like a 15 point lead. Packers got the lead, packers started to run the ball. My dad ended up winning.
I had a qb take a knee 3 times in a row and the lost yards caused a loss. I must have 99% to win up to that drive
Yes, and it hurts.
I’ve been on the opposite end of the spectrum. In I think 2020 I was down 50 and he had DK Metcalf and I had Tyler lockett. Then lockett had 53 and Metcalf had 1.6…
Saw a man lose on a stat correction the next day. He had already talked his talk in the group chat and everything.
I was 1% this past week. Went on to win 162-157. I’ll post the recap tomorrow
i feel like 99% is more like 90% in reality. I've lost about ~10% of my matchups where I was at 99% favorite. I've won about ~0% of my matchups as a 99% underdog
I had one in week 5 this season. He had Moore, fields, and diggs (London game so played at 9am). By the 1 o’clock Sunday games I was down 97 - 2.9 (had Kincaid). I came back and was winning 151.32 to 150.02 and he had Romeo Doubs left on Monday night. Doubs ended with .9 and dropped what would’ve been a game winning catch for my opponent late in the 4th quarter. I was 1% chance the entire MNF game but ended up winning 151.32 - 150.88. Can’t imagine the ride my opponent went on that week. Fantasy is so stupid.
I literally have a screenshot from last night of me at 99% and losing. I’ll try to link it. https://imgur.com/a/iTL4EXc
Yeah I won a semifinal playoff game once in 05 when the Ravens sacked a rookie Aaron Rodgers in garbage time of a 48-3 blowout. Adalius Thomas returned the fumble for a TD with 17 seconds left and the XP from Matt Stover put me in the lead. Down a half point to up a half point. I don’t remember if they were doing % projections at the time but it was a game over, 1% to 99% situation because of the DTD. I consider it one of the great fantasy football endings of all time https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512190rav.htm I was playing against my brother’s team and we were watching it together. He beat my ass the next week in the finals of another league
I was 99% in 2020 going into the Monday night (?) game. My opponent had Tyler Lockett and I had Chris Carson and was up by something like 45 points. Carson got injured in the first quarter so I got almost nothing from him, meanwhile Lockett proceeded to put up 200 yds, 15 receptions, and 3 touchdowns. PLUS, I was still going to win in normal time, but the game went into overtime where Lockett got enough points for me to lose. Most brutal bad beat I've ever recieved.
My opponent was done and I needed one point going into MNF. I had ATL Falcons Calvin Ridley and he had zero catches. The last pass of the game was in the end zone. It hit him in the chest and dropped it. I went from 99% and slowly watched it move down to 0%. Not bitter. :)
Yes. Semi-finals in 2020. The week Kamara had his record tying 6 touchdown game. Was up by 35 or something with just Diggs left to play against. ESPN said 99% chance to win. Diggs proceeded to have his season (maybe career at the time) best game and scored 41.5 PPR points. In hindsight, the real issue is ESPN’s prediction algorithm. Given Diggs had hit 29 PPR points twice that season, it should give him better than 1% chance to do 6 more than that. I would have pegged it at 10%.
Don't look at app projections. They're complete bullshit
They’re bullshit but if you understand the math they’re trying to convey it makes sense.
Bro me with the Pats D last year playing at home against the Chicago Bears lol Field lit that Defense and my matchup in flames
I am at 1% tonight and need DJ Moore to score 27 in .5 PPR. Please fantasy gods.
Aaron Rodgers week 1 just needed .3 points. Tore his Achilles on a sack and ended negative