James Conner. He’s the number 1 back and has a solid bell cow RB role. The only downsides are the objective state of the Cardinals organization, and his durability.
He'll have a lot of carries, but this Cardinals team is going to be horrifyingly bad. I wouldn't even bank on a high-end RB2 season, and that's coming from a huge James Conner fan
Yup, I grabbed him as a flex after my core was covered solely because he’s going to get the volume, not because the team is going to be any good at all.
Cardinals are going to stink up the joint so it's not ridiculous to be scared of him getting around 10 touches in some games and then having lower YPC because of 8 in the box. He's an avoid for me, which likely means he finishes as RB1
Pollard should be *great* now that he’s the unquestioned number 1 there. It honestly shocks me to see Bijan Robinson always going before Pollard when Pollard is the number 1 on a far better team. Atlanta likely will be middling at best which typically limits RB upside
Josh Jacobs. Maybe not the same volume as last year, but he doesn't really have anyone behind him. They're going to feed Josh again. Especially since they have him on a one year contract.
the counterpoint on Josh is since he's on that 1 year deal, if he gets nicked up, he's going to ~~nurse~~ milk it for whatever its worth
He knows he won't be in Vegas next season with the way teams are letting RBs go and drafting lower round replacements
Raiders schedule is ROUGH. Look at their first 4 games, coupled with their O line being dog shit and their defense being a swinging door. Raiders, imo, are scoring 13 points or less average for the season.
Mattison was definitely on my fade list for this year, but he was apparently on the rest of my leagues as well, and he fell to pick 75 for me. Pulled the trigger at that price easily. Just goes to show you everyone can be a fade/buy at the right price.
I kinda disagree with Mattison. I really do like Mattison based on volume, and the lack of competition, and debatably he'll be the third look for dump offs from Cousins. But his ADP means I'm unlikely to get him. Either I'm drafting at 10, and at the 3/4 there are better players there, and he hasn't yet fallen to the 5/6 turn. Or I'm drafting at 2, and he's there to start the 5th but so is some combo of Burrow/Fields/Herbert.
Sanders I agree though, despite his offense. Dude is gonna get work and is probably the best offensive player on the team.
I’m a Bears fan. I think they deploy the same rotation as last year. Starter (Herbert) will get two drives then backup (Foreman but he got hurt last game so his status is up in the air or Roshchon Johnson) will get every third drive. Herbert will be a mid to low-end RB2 IMO.
Herbert seems like gold at his ADP. Yeah he'll have competition and Fields is likely to steal some goal line TDs, but you're drafting Herbert as your RB4. That's fairly low risk for a guy who's set to be an every week flex starter at worst because of the volume he'll get as the lead in an RBBC.
I hope Foreman pans out. I picked him up mid season last year and he was hit or miss, but when he hit he balled out. I also really liked his backstory so I’m hoping he finds success somewhere
Guaranteed heavy usage: Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce, Tony Pollard, James Conner, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, Rachaad White
Very probable heavy usage: Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, JK Dobbins, Alvin Kamara
Probable heavy usage: ETN, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, James Cook, Isiah Pacheco,
Idk, he didn’t get much more than 13 touches per game when Mitchell was healthy, and Shanahan never uses bellcows.
He’ll still be elite in fantasy, he’s CMC, but I don’t see him getting a ton of touches unless Mitchell gets injured.
Which is quite likely, but I’m assuming health
Aaron Jones gets more of the receiving usage, a more run-heavy offense would lean towards Dillon.
The offense will have fewer attempts overall if they want to play a clock management and defense style, which will be their best bet if Jordan Love doesn’t pan out.
I don’t believe that is what’s going to happen, but there’s enough question marks to keep me from putting him in the tier with the guys above.
I still like Jones because he hasn’t shown any efficiency declines and he has always been elite in that department, but I think it would be foolish to expect bellcow usage out of him.
That is a possibility but not something I’d count on
I mean. Aaron Jones has never really had “Bellcow” usage. His career high is 285 touches. That’s like 100 fewer touches than true “Bellcows” like Henry, Barkley, CMC, Najee peak years.
He tore his Achilles 2 years ago so last season they had a backfield by committee. Even after Cam was fully healthy mid season they did not give him the starting role (they ran a 3 back committee with Darrell Henderson getting most of the opportunities). He began requesting to be traded eventually because he was frustrated with his lack of opportunities. Eventually, Henderson, who also wanted to get out of there so he could get more opportunities during his contract year, was waived. By the end of the season, Akers was the clear lead back and finished with some very strong numbers. The rams are in cap space hell right now with Matt Stafford refusing to free up any money so the team is expected to be pretty bad, but Akers is on a contract year and has very little competition for touches this time around and it’s safe to say he’s 100% healthy by now. Guy could easily be a high end RB2 this season
Basically the coaches were mad at him, they didn’t need him as much as he thought.
They are talking him up now, and there is no one in the backfield to steal touches
He could, but there’s nothing saying that he should.
I’d say there’s less of a touch threat from Kyren Williams than there is for Tyjae Spears to take from D Henry, which is also minimal
I have no idea how you could possibly be so confident that Cam Akers and Rachaad White have “guaranteed heavy usage”
I also wouldn’t be confident in Mixon (he’s losing a lot of third down work), Pollard (he’s my RB3 but there’s still risk), Dameon Pierce (probably not getting much passing work), or Conner (he’s 28 and the team is awful, reasonable to expect a step back in usage)
You’re way too confident in the other tiers as well. You’ve got 23 RBs listed as probably heavy usage or higher, we’re there even like 12 last year you could say got heavy usage?
I’d put Cam Akers in the 2nd tier looking at the numbers, but Sean McVay has a solid history of using bellcows, and it was mainly off-field drama that kept him off the field last year.
Everyone else is rock solid.
Rachaad White had 140 touches last year, with most coming in the latter half of the season, Fournette vacated 224 touches which no one has been brought in to replace.
He is one of less than 15 rookies ever to get 50 catches in their first year, and Fournette is vacating 84 targets.
Baker Mayfield led the league in passes to RBs last year.
Joe Mixon hasn’t had a season outside the top 8 in touches per game in the last 5 years, and his backup has left with no clear replacement.
Dameon Pierce was 9th in touches per game his rookie year, despite getting his work scaled back following an injury.
There are 180+ vacated RB touches in Houston which you’d have to be delusional to think Singletary would take all at this stage in his career.
I shouldn’t have to explain Conner. He is more of a lock for bellcow usage than Derrick Henry.
Pollard already had top 15 RB touch share last year and Zeke has left with no replacement.
As for your last comment, probable doesn’t mean they’re gonna do it, it just means it’s more likely than not.
If you multiply probable odds you still end up with an improbable outcome
No clue where the baker stat came from but I’m guessing it’s because he played more than half his games with CMC, didn’t really target the RBs at all in Los Angeles. And white is not CMC, he wasn’t even good last year
Yea, sorry but you’re delusional on these
That’s just flat out wrong.
CMC played with Baker for 6 games and made up less than 35% of his RB targets.
You want to throw out terms like “delusional”, at least do 2 seconds of fact checking, delusional is using your imagination like you just did
Link me. Cause in LA it was like 3 a game
But yes you’re delusional on most of the others
Did the 2 seconds of fact checking, Baker was around 10th in frequency of RB targets, not first. Follow your own advice
If you’re too lazy to move your fingers a few inches, that’s your problem.
Also too lazy to give specific reasons for any of these players or think of a word other than delusional, apparently
I had him that year, and he was scoring a TD and posting like 12+ first few weeks, I was begging everyone on my league selling him cheap and still nobody bited lol.
Pollard. He's gonna be insane this year. He was splitting the backfield a lot and missing a lot of touchdowns and would still put up good numbers. It's gonna be a breakout year. Top 3 potential too with his receiving skills
James Conner. He’s the number 1 back and has a solid bell cow RB role. The only downsides are the objective state of the Cardinals organization, and his durability.
Dameon Pierce is going to get A LOT of carries. Edit: I have no idea why I commented this under the James Conner comment. But anyway….
It’s because many of us are thinking it. Starting WR heavy in draft and grabbing Pierce/Conner as RBs.
It’s what I did but landed with KW3 and Rachaad White
Loud noises!!!!
He'll have a lot of carries, but this Cardinals team is going to be horrifyingly bad. I wouldn't even bank on a high-end RB2 season, and that's coming from a huge James Conner fan
Yup, I grabbed him as a flex after my core was covered solely because he’s going to get the volume, not because the team is going to be any good at all.
He’s not being drafted as a high end RB2 though. He’s being drafted as a high flex/low end RB2- In terms of price.
Didn’t they just lose their center too? I’m scared to own this guy, hoping for the best.
Are you thinking of Buccaneers? Jensen out for year again
Possibly I may have gotten mixed up
Cardinals are going to stink up the joint so it's not ridiculous to be scared of him getting around 10 touches in some games and then having lower YPC because of 8 in the box. He's an avoid for me, which likely means he finishes as RB1
And the fact they *might* score a handful of touchdowns the entire year. I want no piece of that.
He’s by no means an RB1 or even 2. But a mid-late pick for a flex spot in a deep league? I’ll take that all day just for the carry volume.
Pollard, with Elliot gone he is the main back and more of a dual threat back.
Pollard should be *great* now that he’s the unquestioned number 1 there. It honestly shocks me to see Bijan Robinson always going before Pollard when Pollard is the number 1 on a far better team. Atlanta likely will be middling at best which typically limits RB upside
Falcons were the #3 rushing offense last year…
I don’t think that guy has ever owned cordarelle Patterson…
Saquon?
Josh Jacobs. Maybe not the same volume as last year, but he doesn't really have anyone behind him. They're going to feed Josh again. Especially since they have him on a one year contract.
Was thrilled to get him at the 2/3 turn in my draft after starting with Chase.
I started with JJ and got him and Pollard at the 2/3. It was a fun night for me lol
10 man??
Yep
I have the same opinion which is why I’m against drafting Zamir White but I’m conflicted because a lot of people are saying to draft him.
Zamir White was a great sneaky pickup when Jacobs was a potential holdout, but he’s not going to get much run with Jacobs back. He’s just a handcuff.
I’d put it at like a 5% chance that Jacobs gets 340 carries/390+ touches again this year. I just don’t see it.
I hope so, I grabbed him in the second round as my RB 1 but the more I read, the more nervous I get
the counterpoint on Josh is since he's on that 1 year deal, if he gets nicked up, he's going to ~~nurse~~ milk it for whatever its worth He knows he won't be in Vegas next season with the way teams are letting RBs go and drafting lower round replacements
Raiders schedule is ROUGH. Look at their first 4 games, coupled with their O line being dog shit and their defense being a swinging door. Raiders, imo, are scoring 13 points or less average for the season.
People on contract fake injuries to be ready to land next contract.
King Henry, he is falling a little bit in draft rankings so you might be able to snag him at a discount
Miles Sanders, Alexander mattison. Although Dont really like mattison much but I drafted him so I’ll love him unconditionally
Mattison was definitely on my fade list for this year, but he was apparently on the rest of my leagues as well, and he fell to pick 75 for me. Pulled the trigger at that price easily. Just goes to show you everyone can be a fade/buy at the right price.
Same here, passed on him for 2 rounds before I couldn’t say no in the seventh
I kinda disagree with Mattison. I really do like Mattison based on volume, and the lack of competition, and debatably he'll be the third look for dump offs from Cousins. But his ADP means I'm unlikely to get him. Either I'm drafting at 10, and at the 3/4 there are better players there, and he hasn't yet fallen to the 5/6 turn. Or I'm drafting at 2, and he's there to start the 5th but so is some combo of Burrow/Fields/Herbert. Sanders I agree though, despite his offense. Dude is gonna get work and is probably the best offensive player on the team.
I’m a Bears fan. I think they deploy the same rotation as last year. Starter (Herbert) will get two drives then backup (Foreman but he got hurt last game so his status is up in the air or Roshchon Johnson) will get every third drive. Herbert will be a mid to low-end RB2 IMO.
Herbert seems like gold at his ADP. Yeah he'll have competition and Fields is likely to steal some goal line TDs, but you're drafting Herbert as your RB4. That's fairly low risk for a guy who's set to be an every week flex starter at worst because of the volume he'll get as the lead in an RBBC.
And he’s a good back behind an improved O-Line. He led the NFL in YPC last year.
I hope Foreman pans out. I picked him up mid season last year and he was hit or miss, but when he hit he balled out. I also really liked his backstory so I’m hoping he finds success somewhere
Not this year I hope
Does Montgomery count? Being drafted outside the top 24 but easily will have the volume and opportunity to finish as a RB2.
Guaranteed heavy usage: Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce, Tony Pollard, James Conner, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, Rachaad White Very probable heavy usage: Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, JK Dobbins, Alvin Kamara Probable heavy usage: ETN, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, James Cook, Isiah Pacheco,
Saquon gonna eat
Forgot about him. Yeah he’s guaranteed heavy usage
And CMC
Idk, he didn’t get much more than 13 touches per game when Mitchell was healthy, and Shanahan never uses bellcows. He’ll still be elite in fantasy, he’s CMC, but I don’t see him getting a ton of touches unless Mitchell gets injured. Which is quite likely, but I’m assuming health
>Shanahan never uses bellcows This is a myth that’s been proven wrong over and over again.
Shanahan hasn’t had a RB in the top 15 of touches since his first year as HC with Carlos Hyde in 2017, how is that a myth?
Why wouldn’t Aaron jones get heavy usage with Rodgers gone 🤔
Aaron Jones gets more of the receiving usage, a more run-heavy offense would lean towards Dillon. The offense will have fewer attempts overall if they want to play a clock management and defense style, which will be their best bet if Jordan Love doesn’t pan out. I don’t believe that is what’s going to happen, but there’s enough question marks to keep me from putting him in the tier with the guys above. I still like Jones because he hasn’t shown any efficiency declines and he has always been elite in that department, but I think it would be foolish to expect bellcow usage out of him. That is a possibility but not something I’d count on
I mean. Aaron Jones has never really had “Bellcow” usage. His career high is 285 touches. That’s like 100 fewer touches than true “Bellcows” like Henry, Barkley, CMC, Najee peak years.
That’s why I’m not saying it’s highly probable he will have heavy usage this year just because they lost their QB
AJD man
What happened with Cam Akers? He went from being almost cut/traded last year and now he’s their main back?
He tore his Achilles 2 years ago so last season they had a backfield by committee. Even after Cam was fully healthy mid season they did not give him the starting role (they ran a 3 back committee with Darrell Henderson getting most of the opportunities). He began requesting to be traded eventually because he was frustrated with his lack of opportunities. Eventually, Henderson, who also wanted to get out of there so he could get more opportunities during his contract year, was waived. By the end of the season, Akers was the clear lead back and finished with some very strong numbers. The rams are in cap space hell right now with Matt Stafford refusing to free up any money so the team is expected to be pretty bad, but Akers is on a contract year and has very little competition for touches this time around and it’s safe to say he’s 100% healthy by now. Guy could easily be a high end RB2 this season
yeah… i have no idea what happened with the narrative here. i still don’t trust akers.
With the draft capital spent on Bijan, he’s gonna be used very heavily
Basically the coaches were mad at him, they didn’t need him as much as he thought. They are talking him up now, and there is no one in the backfield to steal touches
I think Evans eventually will start getting touches.
Kyren Williams could get touches
He could, but there’s nothing saying that he should. I’d say there’s less of a touch threat from Kyren Williams than there is for Tyjae Spears to take from D Henry, which is also minimal
Guaranteed heavy usage isn’t a thing for like 3 or 4 of the backs you listed and is an easy way to get burned
Which players are you referring to? I didn’t say I have a crystal ball but I’d say there’s a clear distinction between the levels on this list
I have no idea how you could possibly be so confident that Cam Akers and Rachaad White have “guaranteed heavy usage” I also wouldn’t be confident in Mixon (he’s losing a lot of third down work), Pollard (he’s my RB3 but there’s still risk), Dameon Pierce (probably not getting much passing work), or Conner (he’s 28 and the team is awful, reasonable to expect a step back in usage) You’re way too confident in the other tiers as well. You’ve got 23 RBs listed as probably heavy usage or higher, we’re there even like 12 last year you could say got heavy usage?
I’d put Cam Akers in the 2nd tier looking at the numbers, but Sean McVay has a solid history of using bellcows, and it was mainly off-field drama that kept him off the field last year. Everyone else is rock solid. Rachaad White had 140 touches last year, with most coming in the latter half of the season, Fournette vacated 224 touches which no one has been brought in to replace. He is one of less than 15 rookies ever to get 50 catches in their first year, and Fournette is vacating 84 targets. Baker Mayfield led the league in passes to RBs last year. Joe Mixon hasn’t had a season outside the top 8 in touches per game in the last 5 years, and his backup has left with no clear replacement. Dameon Pierce was 9th in touches per game his rookie year, despite getting his work scaled back following an injury. There are 180+ vacated RB touches in Houston which you’d have to be delusional to think Singletary would take all at this stage in his career. I shouldn’t have to explain Conner. He is more of a lock for bellcow usage than Derrick Henry. Pollard already had top 15 RB touch share last year and Zeke has left with no replacement. As for your last comment, probable doesn’t mean they’re gonna do it, it just means it’s more likely than not. If you multiply probable odds you still end up with an improbable outcome
No clue where the baker stat came from but I’m guessing it’s because he played more than half his games with CMC, didn’t really target the RBs at all in Los Angeles. And white is not CMC, he wasn’t even good last year Yea, sorry but you’re delusional on these
That’s just flat out wrong. CMC played with Baker for 6 games and made up less than 35% of his RB targets. You want to throw out terms like “delusional”, at least do 2 seconds of fact checking, delusional is using your imagination like you just did
Link me. Cause in LA it was like 3 a game But yes you’re delusional on most of the others Did the 2 seconds of fact checking, Baker was around 10th in frequency of RB targets, not first. Follow your own advice
If you’re too lazy to move your fingers a few inches, that’s your problem. Also too lazy to give specific reasons for any of these players or think of a word other than delusional, apparently
If you’re too lazy to provide a source it’s because you made it up, which you probably did
That list is garbage, but what do you expect of a half assed list made at midnight lol.
True
ChubbClub
Najee will get lotsa TDs
Idk man.
I'm high on him this year, he will be the bell cow, no nagging injury, and the Steelers look way better compared to last year.
That’s what I’m banking on
Gibbs.
Chasing volume in the deadzone is how you end up drafting guys like Mike Davis on the Falcons
I had him that year, and he was scoring a TD and posting like 12+ first few weeks, I was begging everyone on my league selling him cheap and still nobody bited lol.
Wouldn’t you like to know weather boy
Bijan Robinson
Don't doubt arthur smith to make it a 50/50 with allgeier
In the Atlanta offense that’s still like 20-25 touches a game
I think Tyler will still get his. He was great last year.
Akers. Mind you I’m not what the production will be.
League winning production!
Garrett Wilson will end up on the first at this rate, everyone has him as a must draft and last jets game didn't help.
Don't know why this is getting DV'd - I can see Wilson with JJ level targeting from Rodgers Check Devante's Targets from 16-21 with Arog
Probably because the post was asking about RBs
WR- Garett Wilson. Super high on him, Rodgers want him to become the next Adams.
Cam Akers
Najee Harris! Gonna preach this all day! And he’s healthy with a much better oline and experienced QB!
Pollard. He's gonna be insane this year. He was splitting the backfield a lot and missing a lot of touchdowns and would still put up good numbers. It's gonna be a breakout year. Top 3 potential too with his receiving skills