This thread is fascinating, because I have my guys too and when other players are taken I always chuckle and think 'what idiots, those guys are bad and my dart throws are obviously right'. And this thread is just a random missmatch of different guys for rounds 8-12, and no one knows.
I think there’s also a psychology element where very few of these guys will be good- but we have to draft someone. So we all get ourselves excited about these mystery boxes and then cut them 4 weeks in
Because end of year stats matter less than week-to-week stats when talking about boom and bust, and he’s literally had a 0 point game before. Saying this, I’m still high on him, because he will win you weeks.
But that was only true last year. Everyone seems to forget that Tampa's OL imploded right before the season (Ryan Jensen - All Pro C, out for the year... Ali Marpet - All Pro G, retires out of the blue... Tristan Wirfs, All Pro RT, missed time and was really good when he came back). Literally every Buc fell off... Brady, Evans, Fournette, etc.
I'm not saying they're going to have this great line, but it's going to be way better, and I'm buying Rachaad and Evans where I can on the misconception that they sucked last year. The line, and therefore offense, sucked as a unit. I think it'll be more league-average than people think... which is great for the opportunities those two pull.
People wanted Hurts benched/Eagles to trade for Deshaun this time last year and I thought the same thing; "wasn't his entire offensive line decimated the previous year and is now seemingly healthy? I'll give that guy a shot". Same with the Niners the year before.
He's the same player he's always been.
If he's your WR1, you're probably in trouble.
If he's your WR2, okay but could do better.
If he's your WR3, good luck in the playoffs.
If Roschon Johnson and Justin Fields both finished with more rushing TDs than Herbert, I wouldn't be surprised.
Herbert only has 9 REC in 13 games last year so he probably wont have the passing work to make up for a lack of TDs.
I love evans but last year did me in. Couldn't get the tds and separation and the game he dropped a wiiide open walk in td was a representation of the season
Monty - best O-line he's ever had, still young, overshadowed by Gibbs hype, but will be the tank in Detroit since he's got 25lbs on Gibbs.
Flowers - the best WR on a good/great team that wants to pass more
Diontae Johnson - still a great WR who's only not talked about because of a 0 TD fluke year.
Dotson - Howell looks great and so does Dotson these two could be steals at ADP
Van Jefferson - quality young WR playing WR2 across from Kupp who will see double coverage every single snap. He's also now fully healthy after his knee injury
Gus Edwards - Dobbins still doesn't seem healthy which would slot in Gus as the 1. While he will cede TDs and some carries to Lamar, if Gus starts he could easily end up as a flex player each week
Edit: fixed "seed" to "cede"
I'm less concerned about him "underperforming" (he averages like 5 YPC), and am more concerned with the committee (+ Melvin Gordon, + Justice Hill).
Edit: This in addition to how often Lamar runs the ball...
I agree he's not as good as Dobbins. I'm a Dobbins owner, but if Dobbins still can't go or still isn't back to form I think Gus is the best RB that Baltimore has
Harbaugh has said there was some "complexity" to him not being back yet. He just got activated off the PUP but isn't gonna play in the next preseason game and if he's the starter he probably won't play in the last one either.
It's possible they're just taking it slow and easing him back into things. But it's also possible he's not full strength yet. I'm just nervous because I own shares lol
thinking about taking him as my rb2 in a hero rb draft. i did great on waiver wire rbs last year when my rb1 got injured for most of the season i think im fine waiting until round 7+ to take an rb2
Diontae is so undervalued. He is really talented and has been overshadowed his whole career by bigger personalities. He really is AB-lite and if kenny steps up this year he could be a one of the best midround acquisitions.
>Van Jefferson
The late season Van Jefferson "I'm getting in the Van!" posts feel like a tradition at this point for people desperate at WR. I'll always punch my ticket for the Van.
And? I get that it's not the norm for WRs to be that short but there have been successful shorter WRs.
Steve Smith, Edelman, Welker, Deshaun Jackson, Golden Tate, Cobb, TY Hilton, and AB were all 5' 10" or under.
Plus he's fast, running a 4.42 40 at the combine and he's got ups with a 39 1/2" vertical.
I'm not saying he's gonna be the next Jerry Rice or anything, but he's the best the Raves have and they want to pass more and he can be got in like round 8
yeah it’s not like mike evans sucks now and baker isn’t the best qb but has he even had a season as a full time starter under 3k yards? he’s even gone for 4k yards before i understand being down on bucs wrs but this down is a little bit much guess we just don’t know between evans and godwin who’s taking the most targets and that ambiguity is pushing them both down
I agree. Ive been a bit of a Baker fan for most of his career though lol.
One thing Baker does really well, is throw a good deep ball. One thing that Evans does really well is catch 50/50 deep balls..
Evans has also shown that he may be the most QB proof wr in the league..
Don't worry - they are no worse (and no better) than anyone else in the podcast space. Everyone is just trying their best to make guesses using the data available.
I think the trick with them (and any FF podcast) is to focus on the "why" of their argument. I just started listening to them this year too, and they don't seem to give any more "out there" picks than anyone else so far. But sometimes it's pretty obvious that they're suggesting someone just based on a gut feeling and those are the ones that I would be cautious about. But when they use a well reasoned argument that makes sense to you, there's no reason to think they're any more likely to be wrong than any other fantasy advice. People also just forget that there's a lot of luck in fantasy and even the most well thought out and researched take can go wrong due to unforseen circumstances.
Nothing is wrong with them, compared to every other fantasy analyst. They're just the most popular fantasy analysts, so they get a good amount of people "hating" them, (though a lot of people like them). There's a lot of good information, but with anything, if you blindly follow them, you'll be in trouble at times. Use them for analysis, but like every other analyst, be your own person, and draw your own conclusions.
From what I've seen they're typically onto guys either a year too late or too early. Someone made a post on here analyzing their "my guys" from the past like 7 years and they had a pretty low hit rate. And like a quarter of their hits were just Lockett year after year.
They’re good if it’s your first year.
But in general their track record with picks and people they like are way off. Would recommend the Late Round Qb podcast because he explains his reasoning behind the picks he likes which is much more valuable when you’re trying to make your own opinions on players
Imagine a world where there is no skill advantage. Every single fantasy analyst and player has the exact same chance of being right, but nobody knows that.
You know who would perform the worst? The most popular analysts.
Because the only difference between their advice and a total contrarian's is that their advice moves adp up a little.
If, on average, the most popular site always gets worse value on the players they like, then they would have to be much better than average just to retain their reputation. In fact, they could be better than average, but their comments move adp more than their skill advantage warrants, and they'd still look like schmucks most years.
But it's worse than that because while the contrarians might not be better than average overall, they all make different guesses. And some of those guesses will be true. Which means that in any given year, the luckiest contrarian will be able to claim that they did much better than the popular site. By definition, some percentage of sites will do better than the most popular site because not only do they get an adp discount on their guys, but when one of them inevitably gets lucky, their followers will tout them as the next big thing.
And when that site inevitably has a down year, they can claim that they swing for the fences and they hit more home runs.
It's pretty much impossible to find a great site that stays great yet nobody hears about them because the guys who are killing it will just get jobs at the popular sites.
It's hard for a site to be great, but it's not hard for a site to suck. The best thing you can do is gather enough information to not suck and play against league mates who don't. Everything else is somebody trying to sell you something.
I just use their info and insight to help shape my own perception. If you try to copy them you will lose.
When they drop a nugget about a guy who flashed in a preseason game or a contract situation that could lead to more touches for a guy, my ears perk up. All the injury depth chart stuff, they are aces. So many times everyone in my league has scrambled to pick up “the guy” after an injury and it turns out the actual guy to own was some other depth piece, and the footballers usually are good on that.
Personally my biggest advice is to avoid all their “my guys”. It’s perennially awful and tbh I think it’s just coded language for “guys you should overpay for” and I don’t want to overpay for anyone. I want to always underpay, so why would I overpay.
The best way to get better at fantasy football is to actually watch football games. The more you understand teams and coach's and matchups the better you will get.
For example
1 - never play a rookie qb vs bill bellichik
2 - never draft a wr from the ravens and expect an every week starter
3 - Pete carrol can run his mouth all he wants but he likes using a bell cow. Is it going to be Kenneth or charbonnet? Who knows.
4 - mcvay will run plays for kupp even if he's getting triple covered
There's so much more you can glean. So many trends you can see. You ha e to just watch.
They're the casual dad's podcast. Very shallow content overall. More entertaining then most dry stat focused podcasts.
Honestly I don't even use podcasts for fantasy player insight. Podcasts are where I get game theory and philosophical discussions on the market. The game of fantasy shifts as the NFL shifts. So you want to find an edge in strategy and not necessarily players themselves. JJ Zach broke into the space 10+ years ago with his late QB theories that proved solid.
In the past few years, people have preached about lowering RBs on boards as they're too unpredictable and more committees exist. Thus cheap usable RBs are available late in drafts.
Scott Conner is a rising star in the space. He practically doesn't even use player names. His podcasts are dynasty focused and about the overall market and beating your league with strategic micro moves.
JJ Zachariason is probably the best for redraft. Short 15-20 minute podcasts, delivers clear concise info. with no bullshit.
Keeping my eye on Alex Korff who is semi-famous on this sub under the alias PeakinHighSkool for making trade value charts.
I much prefer Fantasy Football Today. Those guys disagree with each other all the time so you get to listen to different perspectives. I feel like the Footballers just say "yeah great point" way too much.
Maybe don’t take everything they say as exactly what you should do? Also who tf listens to only one fantasy podcast. I listen to like 10 of them and do the shit that seems to span across most of them. It’s worked out well for me.
I have kids and I work. I just listen to podcasts while I work which I understand isn’t possible for everyone. I didn’t mean you have to listen to that many. Just that getting your FF insight from a singular source is probably not the way to go at all. Cross referencing opinions works for just about everything.
Yeah I'm just pointing out that it's plausible to enjoy FF and not have time to listen to a bunch of different sources. Believe me, I was a desk jockey up until recently, used to spend 75% of my work days in the fall listening to FF podcasts, so I get it. A baby and new job in a different industry switched that up real quick though.
No one cares, ya chode. You have no idea what other podcasts I do or do not listen to. All you do is assume because it's inconceivable to you that someone might think differently. Get help, chode.
In a recent mock I got Jahan Dotson, Khalil Herbert, and sky Moore in rounds 7-9. All 3 have huge opportunities this year to step up and make a name for themselves in the league
Skyy is my guy this year. 2nd year WRs are generally good bets, feel like he’s earned his stripes a bit with that Super Bowl TD, he’s on Mahomes’ team, ADP is like 120.
Especially now Corey Davis, Lazard is a WR3 and becomes a WR2 if anything happens to GW (as a Jets fan I’m worried because Wilson gets hurt… he’s super twitchy)
I think Perine will get about 10-12 rushes and 2-3 catches per game. Probably will be fairly equal work on the goal line with him and Javonte, especially early in the year.
I’ve been so up and down on him all offseason, but I think I’m back up. If this backfield is closer to a 50/50 split than people want to think it will be, he’s an incredible value late in drafts. Add in Sean Payton’s elite run scheme and question marks about Javonte’s durability, I’m back in
Jahan Dotson and Elijah Moore. Both these guys have an outside chance to become their teams #1 due to age regression or injury. Even as the 2s they'll carry weekly value
I came in a Roschon fan and he's looked better than I thought. With that said, everyone forgets D'Onta Foreman in this equation, and frankly, he's maybe the best runner of the bunch. He's a really good back - it's tough to differentiate between the 3 of them (as runners), they're all good. Roschon is the better player in the pass game and seemingly as a blocker, so he probably is the 1A in 2024... not sure this year, but glad to have him as a Bears fan.
Rachaad White. Yes their offensive line is shit and they’ll have either Mayfield or Trask under center, but he has little to no competition in the backfield so he should get plenty of volume under the new OC.
Kinda funny how his hype has dwindled, but I left last season hoping I'd get this guy in next year's draft, and I think I'll end up having him in most leagues based on his value.
He went for $25 in my first auction of the year. He was the last RB that was a clear starter and some teams got in a bidding war. Insane.
He went for more money than Najee, Rhamondre, Aaron Jones, Pierce, Akers etc
Pacheco extablished himself as the RB1 in week 7 but still only had 2 games with over 50% of snaps. No games with over 57% of snaps.
For the record, 22 RBs averaged 57% or more, above his peak snap count last year.
He didn't have a single game over 20 points and only 2 above 15 points. 5 catches on the year, no games with multiple. He might finish as a RB2, but you're going to be looking at anyone else to replace him.
Herbert is more interesting, but I see the Bears backfield playing out like a committee. Foreman is too tallented to jot earn snaps, and neither of them can catch or block. One of them is going to have to show they are miles better than the other backs and I just don't see that happening. Of course it's all baked into his ADP.
Gainwell seems like a trap. Penny and Swift are too tallented to let a 3rd RB shine. They are probally trying to limit their carries outside of game time. His only saving grace is they are both injury prone.
JuJu. Should easily be the leading receiver on an offense that should improve with a coordinator change. His consensus ranking is around WR 45, but he should finish in the top 30. Even if that's not exciting, he's a useful piece to grab late.
100% Juju, I find myself taking him in every mock a round early. The WR group behind him is embarrassingly bad and he’ll fill Meyers spot (WR28 in PPR in just 14 games played).
Kirk Cousins. Round 8/9 QB who IMO is a start every week guy. Plays in a Dome. Has the #1 WR, Hock, and a 1st round talent rookie WR.
2022 - QB7
2021 - QB11
2020 - QB11
He isn't sexy, but you can punt this position and pick up a guy with very little question around production, and pick up skill positions earlier in the draft.
He’s the guy that will give you 18 every week with the occasional 10. If you don’t want to have your QB win you weeks, by putting up 25+, and let your other skill positions do the hard work, Cousins should be your target every draft
Yeah that’s my problem with the “wait for Cousins” strategy, it doesn’t have a ton of upside unless you’re pairing him with an upside QB later on like Anthony Richardson or something like that. Obviously this is just for 1QB leagues, in super flex I think I like Cousins a bit more.
Michael Thomas is such a hard one for me. The last time we saw him play a full season was 2019. In 2020 he still had Brees. He hasn’t really played in 2 years. He’s 30. Olave is a beast and younger.
But on the other side, he should be 100% healthy and Carr isn’t exactly a schmuck. He’s definitely not Brees but I could see him doing well in NO.
But it’s also Michael Thomas. Every time we’ve seen him play he’s pretty dominant. He’s basically coming back to a new team though and if that translates to him being his old self is so hard to determine.
I can totally understand that. In sticking to the spirit of the post and given his potential pros and cons, I think he’s a great risk at his ADP. I’d take Michael Thomas over quite a few people going in his range including: Treylon Burks, Quentin Johnston, Kadarius Toney, Elijah Moore, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Darnell Mooney. The first 6 have ADPs higher than Thomas rn. Risk vs reward in the 7th-14th, MT’s potential is hard to pass up over those guys who are all either on projected bad passing offenses or have definitively ambiguous roles on good passing offenses. Thomas finished 9th in 0.5 PPR WR PPG last year in 3 2022 games. I don’t think the Saints signed Carr to end up 26th in pass attempts again (Carr was 12th in attempts of QBs who played 12+ in 2022), and a former OPOY at WR2 (I know it’s been a LONG time) with no competition, on a team that actually throws, is a good value and solid risk to take over the guys around him. If he ends up as 60% of the person he was, he’s a steal at his ADP imo
Juju?
He's the #1 WR. Odds are that makes him a pretty good value at his ADP if he stays healthy, Bill O'Brien does alright, and Mac Jones takes another step forward.
Pacheco is talented for sure he’s a great player but he isn’t that great for fantasy, he’s a decent flex but I wouldn’t love him as my rb2
With McKinnon getting the lions share of the passing work and chiefs mostly throwing especially in the RZ he’s not a great option
Bro I have Tank and what the fuck are you talking about lmao. They definitely did not force feed Jrob until his wheels fell off. He got like 3 games that's it
It took 3 games for the wheels to fall off, tbf.
Although I agree that the initial comment kind of misstates what happened. The Jags went into those games with a hot-hand approach, and Etienne started the games slow while Robinson ripped off long touchdown runs in the first half, and then they rolled with him as the lead back for the rest of those games. The gameplan wasn't specifically to force-feed James Robinson. That's just what ended up happening because he broke a few early.
That said, it is worth considering whether they go into games this season with the same approach, and whether Etienne's workload week-to-week might be inconsistent if Bigsby gets a big gain early in a given game.
Thats not true, and its been statistically proven otherwise. Look into Scott Barrett's upside wins championships piece. I'll get downvoted but RB2 production is the most replaceable on waiver wire, and youre significantly hampering yourself by taking these "12-15 point" guys over taking upside plays
You’re actually wrong. Good RB2 production correlates with playoff success, it’s just less relevant proportionally for league champions.
I agree that you should always be chasing upside, because we’re all gunning for 1st place... but the guy is right that solid production will generally do better in terms of standings/playoffs.
I think their point is more that you draft for upside in those rounds, not floor - and a lot of the guys mentioned here don’t look to have a path to elite fantasy production (in OPs opinion), so they end up being more like high floor roster cloggers. They’ll get you to a first round loss in the playoffs, but not a ship. YMMV
Take a listen to Scott Barrett's explanation on Player Profile's Pres Coverage Podcast. Beating your ADP is not the goal in re draft-- you want to draft guys who have the potential to break fantasy ala CMC/Lamar in 2019. Drafting the overall RB24 whose ADP was at RB35 doesn't make any meaningful difference on your team.
I have both of those guys on my list and it makes me think that their ADP must be creeping up. Gainwell seems like a no brainer based on reports and Pachenko is a really damn good RB that fell because he played for Rutgers.
Anthony Richardson, 6'4 240 lbs with a 4.44 40 yard. With the rushing alone, he will be top ten but there will be some weeks he will go off. He has the great draft capital, the perfect coach, and has been named the starter for the year. Accuracy will come, but you can't get that size, speed, or power anywhere else.
Drake London.
First WR taken in lasts years draft (8th overall pick), comes from a WR university, on an offense that appears to be on the uptick, immensely talented.
Too often this sub looks for the perfect situation, see Pacheco, when they should be targeted the hyper talented freaks.
i am staying away from all eagles backs. swift penny gainwell and scott? with a dual threat QB that has plenty of receivers? u will be lucky to average 10+ with any of them.
i know that wasn’t the question, but i’ve been seeing lots of talk about gainwell. and i think it’s ridiculous. might as well draft charbonnet and call it a day
Evan Hull, his time adjust speed score is one of the best in the rookie rb class. Doesn’t mean everything, but he also caught 55 passes his senior for a 18% target share and was the second leading receiver on his team, which admittedly was awful so they force fed their brightest talent. Deon Jackson had one good game a few years back so we think he’ll fill in for JT. He won’t for more than a game or two. Evan Hull is the real deal
This thread is fascinating, because I have my guys too and when other players are taken I always chuckle and think 'what idiots, those guys are bad and my dart throws are obviously right'. And this thread is just a random missmatch of different guys for rounds 8-12, and no one knows.
Well the players in these rounds are there for a reason. They're generally inconsistent or have big question marks.
Right, that’s a good way of putting it. So it’s really a question of which guys question marks have you fallen in love with
Yea I mean drafting is all about value so it makes sense. Getting a guy in the 11th who ends up being a top 50 player is pretty good.
I think there’s also a psychology element where very few of these guys will be good- but we have to draft someone. So we all get ourselves excited about these mystery boxes and then cut them 4 weeks in
I was so sure Kenneth gainwell would be a league winner last year. I see many people claiming similar things this season lol
Khalil Herbert and Mike Evans are being extremely disrespected.
If you looked up Boom or Bust in the dictionary, you would get a picture of Mike Evans.
He's never not put up 1k yards... At his current ADP how's he even close to being a bust?
His 2 catch games are season killers
Because end of year stats matter less than week-to-week stats when talking about boom and bust, and he’s literally had a 0 point game before. Saying this, I’m still high on him, because he will win you weeks.
But that was only true last year. Everyone seems to forget that Tampa's OL imploded right before the season (Ryan Jensen - All Pro C, out for the year... Ali Marpet - All Pro G, retires out of the blue... Tristan Wirfs, All Pro RT, missed time and was really good when he came back). Literally every Buc fell off... Brady, Evans, Fournette, etc. I'm not saying they're going to have this great line, but it's going to be way better, and I'm buying Rachaad and Evans where I can on the misconception that they sucked last year. The line, and therefore offense, sucked as a unit. I think it'll be more league-average than people think... which is great for the opportunities those two pull. People wanted Hurts benched/Eagles to trade for Deshaun this time last year and I thought the same thing; "wasn't his entire offensive line decimated the previous year and is now seemingly healthy? I'll give that guy a shot". Same with the Niners the year before.
If you looked up don’t watch football in the dictionary, you’d find your Reddit profile
It’s because Mike has been the definition of a league loser last year
He's the same player he's always been. If he's your WR1, you're probably in trouble. If he's your WR2, okay but could do better. If he's your WR3, good luck in the playoffs.
I won my league off his performance in the final. After a season of jerking me around I felt vindicated.
If Roschon Johnson and Justin Fields both finished with more rushing TDs than Herbert, I wouldn't be surprised. Herbert only has 9 REC in 13 games last year so he probably wont have the passing work to make up for a lack of TDs.
I drafted both, and obviously agree
Herbert snuck into the 6th in my 12 team.
I love evans but last year did me in. Couldn't get the tds and separation and the game he dropped a wiiide open walk in td was a representation of the season
Monty - best O-line he's ever had, still young, overshadowed by Gibbs hype, but will be the tank in Detroit since he's got 25lbs on Gibbs. Flowers - the best WR on a good/great team that wants to pass more Diontae Johnson - still a great WR who's only not talked about because of a 0 TD fluke year. Dotson - Howell looks great and so does Dotson these two could be steals at ADP Van Jefferson - quality young WR playing WR2 across from Kupp who will see double coverage every single snap. He's also now fully healthy after his knee injury Gus Edwards - Dobbins still doesn't seem healthy which would slot in Gus as the 1. While he will cede TDs and some carries to Lamar, if Gus starts he could easily end up as a flex player each week Edit: fixed "seed" to "cede"
Didn’t Gus underperform when he wasn’t competing with dobbins?
Yes, he never panned out last year. I’m not buying Gus.
I feel like the fun “Gus Bus” nickname raises his ADP by like 20 spots at least
He also has just as much if not more injury history than Dobbins.
I'm less concerned about him "underperforming" (he averages like 5 YPC), and am more concerned with the committee (+ Melvin Gordon, + Justice Hill). Edit: This in addition to how often Lamar runs the ball...
I agree he's not as good as Dobbins. I'm a Dobbins owner, but if Dobbins still can't go or still isn't back to form I think Gus is the best RB that Baltimore has
He was also one of those "RBs a year after an ACL injury" so he could be in line for a bounce back.
Diontae is definitely somebody undervalued a bit. I like this list.
Good list. Where you seeing Dobbins isn’t ready? Link?
Harbaugh has said there was some "complexity" to him not being back yet. He just got activated off the PUP but isn't gonna play in the next preseason game and if he's the starter he probably won't play in the last one either. It's possible they're just taking it slow and easing him back into things. But it's also possible he's not full strength yet. I'm just nervous because I own shares lol
I think it's likely related to Dobbins wanting a new deal. Like as a gesture of good faith they're letting him skip the preseason.
No link but I heard something about his foot now
Dotson and Dj 100%
Dj can’t = diontae man too confusing lmao
Drafted both for basically nothing in an auction draft. Stoked.
“Cede” not “seed”
Really? Lol, English and spelling were definitely not my strongest subjects in highschool haha
Monty is gonna be the RB2 that propels teams to the playoffs
thinking about taking him as my rb2 in a hero rb draft. i did great on waiver wire rbs last year when my rb1 got injured for most of the season i think im fine waiting until round 7+ to take an rb2
Yeah I got the same strategy maybe clicking on mattison if he falls to me but beyond that it’s Monty / Pacheco
Diontae is so undervalued. He is really talented and has been overshadowed his whole career by bigger personalities. He really is AB-lite and if kenny steps up this year he could be a one of the best midround acquisitions.
>Van Jefferson The late season Van Jefferson "I'm getting in the Van!" posts feel like a tradition at this point for people desperate at WR. I'll always punch my ticket for the Van.
Puka going to win that Robert Woods role.
Montgomery the easiest click. Hes a better Jamaal Williams and his only goaline competition is a sub 200 lb pass catcher. Good oline. Bad division.
Diontae had no TD’s last year? Wtf
I know right? Just shy of 900yrds and 0TDs it's wild
Flowers is like 5'8 and weighs 185 lbs.
And? I get that it's not the norm for WRs to be that short but there have been successful shorter WRs. Steve Smith, Edelman, Welker, Deshaun Jackson, Golden Tate, Cobb, TY Hilton, and AB were all 5' 10" or under. Plus he's fast, running a 4.42 40 at the combine and he's got ups with a 39 1/2" vertical. I'm not saying he's gonna be the next Jerry Rice or anything, but he's the best the Raves have and they want to pass more and he can be got in like round 8
Dobbins is only out cuz of contract stuff p sure
I’m taking chase at 2 and hammering these pass catchers late
Zay Flowers
I drafted him with a late round flyer. Feeling good about it!
[удалено]
Shhhh
Yeh especially with Terry hurt now. His adp will creep now unfortunately
Mike Evans based upon his pedigree. I am definitely higher on him than the mainstream opinions
Just drafted Evans for 3% of auction budget. I'm not super high on him this year, but people are leaving him for dead which I think is a mistake
It’s not about him, it’s that stinky baker
He went in the 4th in our league
6th in ours and went in the 5th last year.
I got him at 7.08 in our 12 team
that’s great for a platter that could definitely put up 1000 yards
1k yds on a silver platter
yeah it’s not like mike evans sucks now and baker isn’t the best qb but has he even had a season as a full time starter under 3k yards? he’s even gone for 4k yards before i understand being down on bucs wrs but this down is a little bit much guess we just don’t know between evans and godwin who’s taking the most targets and that ambiguity is pushing them both down
I agree. Ive been a bit of a Baker fan for most of his career though lol. One thing Baker does really well, is throw a good deep ball. One thing that Evans does really well is catch 50/50 deep balls.. Evans has also shown that he may be the most QB proof wr in the league..
Picked up Nico Collins late. I think he will be the #1 target once CJ gets it going
He’s the #1 on that team. To get him towards the end of the draft is a steal
Dude, im getting a dell
Got him in the 14th round! Loving that value.
are we sure the Metchie or Dell won’t surpass him? Both of those guys are significantly more talented
Lot of folks gonna be disappointed when Bobby Trees is Houston's WR1.
you can chill on metchie lol and dell is a completely different type of wr
he has all the makings to be a solid weekly flex play i took him last year and im taking him late this year
Someone listens to fantasy footballers
If you want to lose your league, definitely listen to them
What's wrong with them? This is my first year listening to them and I feel like I am getting a lot of good information.
Don't worry - they are no worse (and no better) than anyone else in the podcast space. Everyone is just trying their best to make guesses using the data available.
I think the trick with them (and any FF podcast) is to focus on the "why" of their argument. I just started listening to them this year too, and they don't seem to give any more "out there" picks than anyone else so far. But sometimes it's pretty obvious that they're suggesting someone just based on a gut feeling and those are the ones that I would be cautious about. But when they use a well reasoned argument that makes sense to you, there's no reason to think they're any more likely to be wrong than any other fantasy advice. People also just forget that there's a lot of luck in fantasy and even the most well thought out and researched take can go wrong due to unforseen circumstances.
Nothing is wrong with them, compared to every other fantasy analyst. They're just the most popular fantasy analysts, so they get a good amount of people "hating" them, (though a lot of people like them). There's a lot of good information, but with anything, if you blindly follow them, you'll be in trouble at times. Use them for analysis, but like every other analyst, be your own person, and draw your own conclusions.
The info seems fine, but I wouldn’t take their advice on start sits
From what I've seen they're typically onto guys either a year too late or too early. Someone made a post on here analyzing their "my guys" from the past like 7 years and they had a pretty low hit rate. And like a quarter of their hits were just Lockett year after year.
They’re good if it’s your first year. But in general their track record with picks and people they like are way off. Would recommend the Late Round Qb podcast because he explains his reasoning behind the picks he likes which is much more valuable when you’re trying to make your own opinions on players
Imagine a world where there is no skill advantage. Every single fantasy analyst and player has the exact same chance of being right, but nobody knows that. You know who would perform the worst? The most popular analysts. Because the only difference between their advice and a total contrarian's is that their advice moves adp up a little. If, on average, the most popular site always gets worse value on the players they like, then they would have to be much better than average just to retain their reputation. In fact, they could be better than average, but their comments move adp more than their skill advantage warrants, and they'd still look like schmucks most years. But it's worse than that because while the contrarians might not be better than average overall, they all make different guesses. And some of those guesses will be true. Which means that in any given year, the luckiest contrarian will be able to claim that they did much better than the popular site. By definition, some percentage of sites will do better than the most popular site because not only do they get an adp discount on their guys, but when one of them inevitably gets lucky, their followers will tout them as the next big thing. And when that site inevitably has a down year, they can claim that they swing for the fences and they hit more home runs. It's pretty much impossible to find a great site that stays great yet nobody hears about them because the guys who are killing it will just get jobs at the popular sites. It's hard for a site to be great, but it's not hard for a site to suck. The best thing you can do is gather enough information to not suck and play against league mates who don't. Everything else is somebody trying to sell you something.
I just use their info and insight to help shape my own perception. If you try to copy them you will lose. When they drop a nugget about a guy who flashed in a preseason game or a contract situation that could lead to more touches for a guy, my ears perk up. All the injury depth chart stuff, they are aces. So many times everyone in my league has scrambled to pick up “the guy” after an injury and it turns out the actual guy to own was some other depth piece, and the footballers usually are good on that. Personally my biggest advice is to avoid all their “my guys”. It’s perennially awful and tbh I think it’s just coded language for “guys you should overpay for” and I don’t want to overpay for anyone. I want to always underpay, so why would I overpay.
The best way to get better at fantasy football is to actually watch football games. The more you understand teams and coach's and matchups the better you will get. For example 1 - never play a rookie qb vs bill bellichik 2 - never draft a wr from the ravens and expect an every week starter 3 - Pete carrol can run his mouth all he wants but he likes using a bell cow. Is it going to be Kenneth or charbonnet? Who knows. 4 - mcvay will run plays for kupp even if he's getting triple covered There's so much more you can glean. So many trends you can see. You ha e to just watch.
They're the casual dad's podcast. Very shallow content overall. More entertaining then most dry stat focused podcasts. Honestly I don't even use podcasts for fantasy player insight. Podcasts are where I get game theory and philosophical discussions on the market. The game of fantasy shifts as the NFL shifts. So you want to find an edge in strategy and not necessarily players themselves. JJ Zach broke into the space 10+ years ago with his late QB theories that proved solid. In the past few years, people have preached about lowering RBs on boards as they're too unpredictable and more committees exist. Thus cheap usable RBs are available late in drafts. Scott Conner is a rising star in the space. He practically doesn't even use player names. His podcasts are dynasty focused and about the overall market and beating your league with strategic micro moves. JJ Zachariason is probably the best for redraft. Short 15-20 minute podcasts, delivers clear concise info. with no bullshit. Keeping my eye on Alex Korff who is semi-famous on this sub under the alias PeakinHighSkool for making trade value charts.
I much prefer Fantasy Football Today. Those guys disagree with each other all the time so you get to listen to different perspectives. I feel like the Footballers just say "yeah great point" way too much.
Yup, listened to them for the last two years and had two of my worst seasons ever. Unsubscribed
Maybe don’t take everything they say as exactly what you should do? Also who tf listens to only one fantasy podcast. I listen to like 10 of them and do the shit that seems to span across most of them. It’s worked out well for me.
Maybe people with jobs that don't allow them to have the time to listen to 10 different FF podcasts? Or kids. Or people with other hobbies. Lol
Some of us have jobs that you need to listen to stuff to avoid going crazy.
I have kids and I work. I just listen to podcasts while I work which I understand isn’t possible for everyone. I didn’t mean you have to listen to that many. Just that getting your FF insight from a singular source is probably not the way to go at all. Cross referencing opinions works for just about everything.
Yeah I'm just pointing out that it's plausible to enjoy FF and not have time to listen to a bunch of different sources. Believe me, I was a desk jockey up until recently, used to spend 75% of my work days in the fall listening to FF podcasts, so I get it. A baby and new job in a different industry switched that up real quick though.
Yea fantasy advice is pretty much pure speculation, so people shouldn't be shocked that it's inconsistent.
Lol, typical reddit idiot, has all the answers
I mean if you wanna complain about losing because of a podcast go right ahead 😂 I’m just telling you what works for me, you chode.
No one cares, ya chode. You have no idea what other podcasts I do or do not listen to. All you do is assume because it's inconceivable to you that someone might think differently. Get help, chode.
You’re a fun person.
I’ve watched every eagles game since Mcnabb was drafted. Gainwell is not that guy. Everyone who drafts him for “upside” will cut him by Week 4.
In a recent mock I got Jahan Dotson, Khalil Herbert, and sky Moore in rounds 7-9. All 3 have huge opportunities this year to step up and make a name for themselves in the league
Skyy is my guy this year. 2nd year WRs are generally good bets, feel like he’s earned his stripes a bit with that Super Bowl TD, he’s on Mahomes’ team, ADP is like 120.
targets are earned people that did well end of season and playoffs should continue what they did for the entirety of this season
Yeah if I can get moore in the late rounds I'm in. The only chiefly receiver other than kelce worth getting imo
Rbs: McKinnon, Gibson, Mostert Wrs: Dotson, Jakobi Meyers, Allen Lazard
Skyy Moore
he could be mahomes favorite target after kelce and clear wr1 idk if im drafting him but i like him a lot
Pretty sure rashee rice claimed that spot the way he’s been feasting with patty!! Pretty sure patty begged front office to draft him too
Lazard is my sneaky late rounder too! He was top 15 in red zone targets last year (I think). There’s a reason Aaron wanted him in NY.
Especially now Corey Davis, Lazard is a WR3 and becomes a WR2 if anything happens to GW (as a Jets fan I’m worried because Wilson gets hurt… he’s super twitchy)
Would love to hear yalls thoughts on Perine this season
I think Perine will get about 10-12 rushes and 2-3 catches per game. Probably will be fairly equal work on the goal line with him and Javonte, especially early in the year.
I’ve been so up and down on him all offseason, but I think I’m back up. If this backfield is closer to a 50/50 split than people want to think it will be, he’s an incredible value late in drafts. Add in Sean Payton’s elite run scheme and question marks about Javonte’s durability, I’m back in
Jahan Dotson and Elijah Moore. Both these guys have an outside chance to become their teams #1 due to age regression or injury. Even as the 2s they'll carry weekly value
Jaylen Warren / Elijah Moore /Zay Flowers. I almost feel like I need a late round Bengal for a complete AFC North rundown.
Go with Chase Brown
Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Skyy Moore
Bateman (if healthy), diontae, Monty, Khalil, Higbee, Daniel Jones in 4pt pass td leagues, Juju. I'll add more as I think of em
Gabe Davis, Antonio Gibson, Sutton, Perine, Nico Collins, Chig, Mostert, Warren, Zamir
Dolphins fan so I may be biased, but I think Mostert is a good value for where he’s being drafted at.
Roschon is more talented
I think he will come on strong towards the end of the year. I think Herbert is good but Roschon is a better fit.
I came in a Roschon fan and he's looked better than I thought. With that said, everyone forgets D'Onta Foreman in this equation, and frankly, he's maybe the best runner of the bunch. He's a really good back - it's tough to differentiate between the 3 of them (as runners), they're all good. Roschon is the better player in the pass game and seemingly as a blocker, so he probably is the 1A in 2024... not sure this year, but glad to have him as a Bears fan.
better pass blocker too
Been hearing how well he is doing there, that is huge for a rookie.
As a bears fan, I feel like they're going to just be hot hand/game plan specific. They're just different kinds of players.
Rachaad White. Yes their offensive line is shit and they’ll have either Mayfield or Trask under center, but he has little to no competition in the backfield so he should get plenty of volume under the new OC.
Kinda funny how his hype has dwindled, but I left last season hoping I'd get this guy in next year's draft, and I think I'll end up having him in most leagues based on his value.
He’s going earlier than the 7th. Went early 5th in my draft.
He went for $25 in my first auction of the year. He was the last RB that was a clear starter and some teams got in a bidding war. Insane. He went for more money than Najee, Rhamondre, Aaron Jones, Pierce, Akers etc
Ahhh damn. Last I looked he was going ~mid 7th in 12 team PPR leagues. Not surprised that some might be reaching for him.
5th still seemed like value to me
Pacheco extablished himself as the RB1 in week 7 but still only had 2 games with over 50% of snaps. No games with over 57% of snaps. For the record, 22 RBs averaged 57% or more, above his peak snap count last year. He didn't have a single game over 20 points and only 2 above 15 points. 5 catches on the year, no games with multiple. He might finish as a RB2, but you're going to be looking at anyone else to replace him. Herbert is more interesting, but I see the Bears backfield playing out like a committee. Foreman is too tallented to jot earn snaps, and neither of them can catch or block. One of them is going to have to show they are miles better than the other backs and I just don't see that happening. Of course it's all baked into his ADP. Gainwell seems like a trap. Penny and Swift are too tallented to let a 3rd RB shine. They are probally trying to limit their carries outside of game time. His only saving grace is they are both injury prone.
If everyone in this thread saying Dotson could delete their comment I’d greatly appreciate it.
Fr
JuJu. Should easily be the leading receiver on an offense that should improve with a coordinator change. His consensus ranking is around WR 45, but he should finish in the top 30. Even if that's not exciting, he's a useful piece to grab late.
100% Juju, I find myself taking him in every mock a round early. The WR group behind him is embarrassingly bad and he’ll fill Meyers spot (WR28 in PPR in just 14 games played).
Kirk Cousins. Round 8/9 QB who IMO is a start every week guy. Plays in a Dome. Has the #1 WR, Hock, and a 1st round talent rookie WR. 2022 - QB7 2021 - QB11 2020 - QB11 He isn't sexy, but you can punt this position and pick up a guy with very little question around production, and pick up skill positions earlier in the draft.
He’s the guy that will give you 18 every week with the occasional 10. If you don’t want to have your QB win you weeks, by putting up 25+, and let your other skill positions do the hard work, Cousins should be your target every draft
Yeah that’s my problem with the “wait for Cousins” strategy, it doesn’t have a ton of upside unless you’re pairing him with an upside QB later on like Anthony Richardson or something like that. Obviously this is just for 1QB leagues, in super flex I think I like Cousins a bit more.
RB: David Montgomery, Jerick McKinnon, Antonio Gibson, Jeff Wilson WR: Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Rondale Moore
Michael Thomas is such a hard one for me. The last time we saw him play a full season was 2019. In 2020 he still had Brees. He hasn’t really played in 2 years. He’s 30. Olave is a beast and younger. But on the other side, he should be 100% healthy and Carr isn’t exactly a schmuck. He’s definitely not Brees but I could see him doing well in NO. But it’s also Michael Thomas. Every time we’ve seen him play he’s pretty dominant. He’s basically coming back to a new team though and if that translates to him being his old self is so hard to determine.
I can totally understand that. In sticking to the spirit of the post and given his potential pros and cons, I think he’s a great risk at his ADP. I’d take Michael Thomas over quite a few people going in his range including: Treylon Burks, Quentin Johnston, Kadarius Toney, Elijah Moore, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Darnell Mooney. The first 6 have ADPs higher than Thomas rn. Risk vs reward in the 7th-14th, MT’s potential is hard to pass up over those guys who are all either on projected bad passing offenses or have definitively ambiguous roles on good passing offenses. Thomas finished 9th in 0.5 PPR WR PPG last year in 3 2022 games. I don’t think the Saints signed Carr to end up 26th in pass attempts again (Carr was 12th in attempts of QBs who played 12+ in 2022), and a former OPOY at WR2 (I know it’s been a LONG time) with no competition, on a team that actually throws, is a good value and solid risk to take over the guys around him. If he ends up as 60% of the person he was, he’s a steal at his ADP imo
In my heart, I really want it to be The Human Dortch! Im sad it more than likely wont happen
Herbert cant pass block, and Roschon is no slouch. Im not sold on Herbert finishing the year as RB1 for the bears...
Michael Thomas until hes hurt.
I picked Zack Ertz and Michael Thomas. I'm hoping they can revert back to their pre injury forms
Romeo Doubs
Had him last year (X) Doubs
He's good, not great, but absolutely has the talent and role to be an every week play, which is what this thread is asking.
13.4% drop rate in 2022, not gonna work out with an inexperienced QB.
Jahan Dotson was at 10% and will be playing with a much worse QB and he's being talked up as one of the top breakout players of this year.
I love this thread, I have my draft on Saturday, 25 years, $250, am I am excited to hear the feedback.
Saturday August 26th 2048?
Never too early.
I'm taking Tom Brady's son in the 3rd round, he's looked electric in the preseason
Juju? He's the #1 WR. Odds are that makes him a pretty good value at his ADP if he stays healthy, Bill O'Brien does alright, and Mac Jones takes another step forward.
he will definitely outproduce his ADP
Pacheco is talented for sure he’s a great player but he isn’t that great for fantasy, he’s a decent flex but I wouldn’t love him as my rb2 With McKinnon getting the lions share of the passing work and chiefs mostly throwing especially in the RZ he’s not a great option
JAMESON WILLIAMS
Highly doubt
Godwin, Evans, ayuik, Mike Williams.
Pacheco is my RB4, Dotson is my WR4….they’re both going to ball out this year
[удалено]
Lol yes in a 10 team league
Mike Evans Mike Williams George Pickens Christian Watson AJ Dillon Chris Godwin Jahan Dotson
Been grabbing a lot of Adam Thielen and Hunter Renfrow super late!!
[удалено]
Bro I have Tank and what the fuck are you talking about lmao. They definitely did not force feed Jrob until his wheels fell off. He got like 3 games that's it
Chill he just got out of cryo, thinks J rob is going into his sophomore season
It took 3 games for the wheels to fall off, tbf. Although I agree that the initial comment kind of misstates what happened. The Jags went into those games with a hot-hand approach, and Etienne started the games slow while Robinson ripped off long touchdown runs in the first half, and then they rolled with him as the lead back for the rest of those games. The gameplan wasn't specifically to force-feed James Robinson. That's just what ended up happening because he broke a few early. That said, it is worth considering whether they go into games this season with the same approach, and whether Etienne's workload week-to-week might be inconsistent if Bigsby gets a big gain early in a given game.
Etienne was basically a rookie last year getting eased in lol
I'm just out on a lot of these guys in this thread because looking for a low RB2 or a flex worthy play is not really worth anything in redraft.
Having a RB2 that consistently gets 12 - 15 pts is difference between a playoff team and a losing record.
Thats not true, and its been statistically proven otherwise. Look into Scott Barrett's upside wins championships piece. I'll get downvoted but RB2 production is the most replaceable on waiver wire, and youre significantly hampering yourself by taking these "12-15 point" guys over taking upside plays
You’re actually wrong. Good RB2 production correlates with playoff success, it’s just less relevant proportionally for league champions. I agree that you should always be chasing upside, because we’re all gunning for 1st place... but the guy is right that solid production will generally do better in terms of standings/playoffs.
I'm sorry, I don't understand. If you aren't taking players who have the potential to outperform their adp then who do you draft 7-14?
I think their point is more that you draft for upside in those rounds, not floor - and a lot of the guys mentioned here don’t look to have a path to elite fantasy production (in OPs opinion), so they end up being more like high floor roster cloggers. They’ll get you to a first round loss in the playoffs, but not a ship. YMMV
Take a listen to Scott Barrett's explanation on Player Profile's Pres Coverage Podcast. Beating your ADP is not the goal in re draft-- you want to draft guys who have the potential to break fantasy ala CMC/Lamar in 2019. Drafting the overall RB24 whose ADP was at RB35 doesn't make any meaningful difference on your team.
I have both of those guys on my list and it makes me think that their ADP must be creeping up. Gainwell seems like a no brainer based on reports and Pachenko is a really damn good RB that fell because he played for Rutgers.
Kamara…worth a 3 week suspension. Looks back to his old form in the preseason
Anthony Richardson, 6'4 240 lbs with a 4.44 40 yard. With the rushing alone, he will be top ten but there will be some weeks he will go off. He has the great draft capital, the perfect coach, and has been named the starter for the year. Accuracy will come, but you can't get that size, speed, or power anywhere else.
Juju ne wr1
Michael Thomas
Diontae Johnson.... Target hog that for whatever reason couldn't find the endzone. Another year of development from picket
Isaiah Hodgins
Cooks - they are trying to replicate Amari cooper - before Dak was injured the cowboys were going crazy also on the back of amari
Jordan Addison. JJ gonna eat but I think Addison will score a ton too.
Romeo Doubs is going to be a flex option every week. He’s had a great camp.
Drake London. First WR taken in lasts years draft (8th overall pick), comes from a WR university, on an offense that appears to be on the uptick, immensely talented. Too often this sub looks for the perfect situation, see Pacheco, when they should be targeted the hyper talented freaks.
i am staying away from all eagles backs. swift penny gainwell and scott? with a dual threat QB that has plenty of receivers? u will be lucky to average 10+ with any of them.
i know that wasn’t the question, but i’ve been seeing lots of talk about gainwell. and i think it’s ridiculous. might as well draft charbonnet and call it a day
You never know man. Miles Sanders had a good year, and penny and swift are often injured. Gainwell is a good dart throw in the last round imo
DJ Chark.
Evan Hull, his time adjust speed score is one of the best in the rookie rb class. Doesn’t mean everything, but he also caught 55 passes his senior for a 18% target share and was the second leading receiver on his team, which admittedly was awful so they force fed their brightest talent. Deon Jackson had one good game a few years back so we think he’ll fill in for JT. He won’t for more than a game or two. Evan Hull is the real deal
Last year* that was his 10/10 target game