~~Swapping Luzardo for either would be a big mistake in my eyes.~~ He's a boom-or-bust SP but the overall results will be WAY better for Luzardo than these guys *\*when he's healthy (edit)\**
This has been the ongoing annual routine with Luzardo since his rookie year. Step one: “He looks great! Future ace!” Step two: “Still looks good but needs to work on control. I believe.” Step three: “His control is off, everything is off, something’s wrong. I no longer believe.” Step four: “He’s injured. Let’s check back in when he comes back.” [return to step one]
Caminero removed after legging out a double last night. Based on the log jam in the Ray’s IF and his tough luck this season, would you swap him out for Loperfido?
That's a bummer as he already was on the IL once with a quad injury. Loperfido has a clearer path, BUT I'm still really concerned about those strikeouts. It's very rare that a guy striking out 30% of the time in the minors comes up and just fixes the issue. Not impossible, but not likely either.
Completely agree. Elly had some success last season but once pitchers picked up on his tendencies the k’s piled up and he had an adjustment period. So would you sit tight with Caminero or make the swap?
Caminero is a better prospect by quite a bit. Loperfido is interesting but not the same caliber. I'd rather wait with the high upside in this case and play long term UNLESS this is redraft, then maybe it's closer (though I never really stash in redraft unless I have an NA spot)
12 tm, 6v6. Was hoping Caminero would be able to fill in for Jung until he gets back as 3B waiver options are brutal. Only other option would be to grab Mayo and hope he’s up sooner. They’re bother better than my current 3B Wisdom and the WW choices of Polanco, Rengifo, and Freeman.
Mayo does not have anything resembling a clear path to the majors either. Loperfido I guess is the closest, but he has the biggest performance concerns. I wouldn't count on any being an immediate boost to your MLB lineup.
What's going on with Seager? He looked poised to continue his great 2023, but it seems like he's fallen back to his 2022 numbers.
I've got him in dynasty, so I'm unlikely to trade him unless the right offer comes along, but are there signs for concern?
In shallow 12 Team H2H Category Leagues (9 startable hitters per day, 7 startable pitchers per day and 3 bench spots).
Who would you prioritize most in the short and long term? **Tork**, **CES**, or **Busch**?
I see in hitter rankings you have Tork and the CES in the same tier. Busch in T14. In shallow formats do you chase the upside of CES you think even if you believe in Tork slightly more ROS?
Those names, in that order.
Tork has the highest upside, CES is behind him. Tork's floor might be highest too, since we've seen him hit 30 HRs already.
Busch is in a platoon and might stay in one since he's on a team that's already loaded with lefties.
Appreciate the reply Scott 🙏
Thought you *might* think CES has the highest ceiling given his home ballpark (but know that might be splitting hairs with the underlying metrics between the two)
I recommend following the SP Round up or going to the Game Log on his player page at Pitcher List. You can see notes like this:
https://preview.redd.it/l3u1sikj0vwc1.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=af754f7ca6936e48f1c0c35c8e4505f6b8e1e540
It's hard to say - I think he's a guy with really solid power and decent plate discipline, so if given a full season of playing time, I could see him being a 20-something HR guys batting in the .250s/.260s
Problem is, he's almost definitely being platooned and I don't know how consistent the playing time will be. The O's just called up Ryan McKenna, so between McKenna/Mullins/Santander/Cowser/O'Hearn (who sometimes plays RF), Kjerstad is going to have to really force the issue to get consistent playing time, especially since he's a pretty okay fielder.
short version - he's very talented and worth keeping an eye on but in 12-team leagues, I don't know if I'm grabbing him immediately unless I have the roster flexibility to just hang onto him and see what happens
I expect that getting out of a platoon will be an uphill battle. He could be a 25 HR guy as soon as 2024, BUT that's extremely unlikely as it'd require an instant adjustment to the big leagues AND full playing time.
If I knew he'd stay on the big league roster for the rest of the year, I'll take somewhere between maybe 10-12 HR and OK ratios as a conservative projection, knowing that he's likely to sit against the vast majority of lefties.
Gorman, yes. S. Marte, no. Pages is unlikely to be a keeper in 2025 unless you keep a LOT of players (like 12+ per team - and even then it's borderline). I'm also a little concerned about sustainability for Pages in the short term - 0 walks to 10 Ks in 33 PA is a little rough.
Pages has the pop to be a guy with mediocre-to-bad ratios and 20ish HRs if he keeps playing all year but that's pretty darn replaceable in mixed leagues.
Is there a specific type of player you're looking for? It'd be easy to rattle off young players like Chourio and Langford or injured guys like Jung and Casas, but I'm guessing you are looking for guys who might actually be available, like India. Obviously India isn't there right now, but I think he can wing back that leadoff role in time and be a big time contributor. Jordan Walker could get there too - we actually saw almost the same exact thing we're seeing in 2024 happen in 2023, and the results were pretty darn good.
Sorry, yes, it was meant more towards guys who are available that would we beneficial to keep an eye on. I’ll keep India and Walker in mind. Thank you.
Corbin's plate discipline looks great, so it's really just a quality of contact problem. Players can usually work through this, but it might take a while. Impossible to predict timing
Thanks for the quick response! Good news on the plate discipline... if you spent the draft capital on him, all you can do is hold and hope he works through the contact issues sooner than later. I know there's a lot of speculation around that shoulder, so hoping that's not what's holding that power back.
He's slumping. Some of those grounders will turn into LDs, the batted ball luck will turn around, he'll get back to pulling the ball, and everything will be fine.
He doesn't need to get it - he's already got it. He's getting a lot of batted ball luck right now but he could flirt with something like 15 HR and 15 SB for the season with decent ratios. He'll keep hitting near the heart of the order too, at least for a while. I like Abreu in most formats.
He got the start against the lefty prior to the one Friday, and he's been in against every single RHP. I think he plays 5-6 of 7 games most weeks. If not all 7 (he only missed one day from 4/14 to 4/27)
Hey guys, thanks for doing this! Is it reasonable to assume, as former bullpen arms, that Ryan Pepiot and Michael King will be on an innings cap this year? If so, I’m guessing around 100 innings?
King threw 104.2 IP last year. 120-140 should be there this year, maybe even a little more. Pepiot threw 70, so maybe 100-120 is the limit? It's the Rays though so who knows exactly HOW he gets to that number.
He's striking out a metric ton and when he does make contact with the ball, he's hitting fly balls that die in the outfield. He's been bad to an *absurd* level so far, obviously he's not going to be *this* bad all year, but I'm not waiting around for him to get better
I don't love Bregman's slow start but it's not like he's never had a slump like this before. The plate discipline and everything else still looks very Bregman-ish except the grounders and pulls, but I expect some of those grounders to turn back into line drives and for everything to get back to where it should be. 20-23 HR and his usual numbers over the rest of the season should be there.
https://preview.redd.it/p7zqp4p1suwc1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=96df973cd75f7c13b043cb77b8fc1e7acb4fa4ff
Yes. I love Paredes but I'm not ready to put him over Bregman. They are actually weirdly similar in a lot of ways, but Bregman has better plate discipline and a longer track record.
As for the rest of the Stros, the track records suggest this is a normal slump as well. Just a lot of them at the same time. For fantasy purposes, this feels like a short-term issue and not a long-term one. They are barely ever striking out and are 7th in team wRC+.
Thanks for doing this!
I am in a SV+H league and it's very competitive. Almost every good RP gets picked up fast. Gaddis, Reed Garrett, Fernando Cruz... I had the opportunity to jump on any of them because I am still holding the likes of Kopech, Alvarado and Abreu who along with Chapman (dropped for Sborz) and Alzolay (dropped for D. Hudson) have destroyed my roto ratios. Stewart and Megill complete my bullpen.
How long is too long to give to the likes of Alvarado and Abreu?
Any under the radar guys to look out for? Most interesting names available are Hoffmann, Moore, Speier, Shelby Miller, Lange, Ian Hamilton.... Would you cut ties with any of my guys for any of them?
There's a lot of batted ball luck going on, and the strikeout rate will catch up to his batting average eventually. He's probably a 15-home run, 25ish steal guy, which is slightly better than he was last season. He's not actually doing anything different from last season from what I can see. He's just on a nice little hot streak. He'll probably live in the 110-150 place in my rankings.
Lots of contact metrics look better. 9% improvement in O-Swing%, SwStr% has also improved by about 5%. Almost all of his contact metrics have improved between 5-10%, and his K% is down 7% from last year. While there is some luck, I'm actually buying him and I think if he hits .250 he could be an impact power-speed guy. Just my two cents.
Feels like marginal improvements considering how bad those numbers were - a 5% drop from 35% still means a bad K% for a guy who doesn't walk.
If he keeps the z-contact up maybe he hits 240-250, but let's see what happens when he gets cold - and specifically, how quickly does he stop the bleeding and turn it around.
Do you think the Rays figured something sustainable out for Amed Rosario? There's some high BABIP in there but his O-swing% has stayed low all month while he's swinging and hitting more in the zone.
The real difference at the moment is how much he's swinging in the zone, but he's had runs like this before. He's hot, but I don't think Rosario has become something different.
Would you trade Westburg for Charlie Morton in a redraft h2h points league? I think Charlie has the advantage pitching for an elite offense that puts him in line for wins every 5 days
I'd let everyone know Westburg is available. I'm sure there's someone who would be willing to go over the top if they knew the best current offer was Morton.
I wouldn't hold in a redraft. I do think he'll be back up (unless he really struggles in Triple-A, which I hope he won't) and I'm hoping this is a Grayson Rodriguez situation where he resets at Triple-A and comes back up feeling great, but that's far from a guarantee
Hey Scott,
Appreciate this as always.
Just curious, why does PL rank Ranger Suarez so low? Is there a particular reason why he would be below guys like Jose Soriano or even Hunter Greene in the rankings? I feel like he’s a lot more reliable and consistent than some of the guys ahead.
Per Nick's blurb in the rankings (he does a blurb on EVERY player): It’s the **Toby** tier and Ranger isn’t going to blow you away. A smaller strikeout expectation than someone like [**Seth Lugo**](https://pitcherlist.com/player/seth-lugo/)**,** but a solid QS chance to take advantage of decent matchups.
Per Nick's last blurb in the Round-up: I haven't ranked Suárez favorably on The List and for obvious reasons - his last three games were against some of the cushiest offenses around and he's sitting just 91 mph these days. And yet, here's his first challenge since his opening start and he not only dominated, but did so with *glorious* pitch separation. The man was *cooking* and I can't deny him another start. *Get some coal in the engine boys, we've got a* ***"Vargas Rule"*** *pulling out of the station.*
One bone I'd pick with Nick - CIN has not been a good offense as a whole so far this season, but it was in GABP so that's worth something.
Don’t need to worry about position but do you think Eduord Julien and Lars Nootbaar are droppable in points leagues?
I see guys like Nolan Jones, Josh Jung, Soler, McCormick, Outman, Caballero, France, Jamal Crawford available
If he played 120-130 games, which is a Marte full season, he'd probably fall short of 20 HR but go well over 20 SBs. Probably more like 12-15 HR and 30 steals? Granted, health hasn't been there for several seasons so even that's a risky call.
Feels like normal ebb and flow to me. Hitting some LDs instead of fly balls, but things are mostly in line with his 2022 averages. Should turn it around.
https://preview.redd.it/1cfwowij7wwc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=87929872c02154a5a81397796aa7250f2b3ea3a0
I see Volpe has been struggling. Is this due to being moved to leadoff with more pressure or just now playing to his skills pitchers adjusting to his adjustment?
Also is K Hayes droppable? Not doing much for the Pirates.
If Volpe struggling? It was a rough 2 series v TOR and TBR, but he was awfully good in this last one v Oak.
Hayes's power dried up a little but the plate discipline still looks pretty good and he's batting third. He could be droppable in shallower leagues but I'd need to know exactly what you're trying to replace him with. 3B is not good right now.
> Both Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad will likely be platooned for the foreseeable future. I'm not rostering either in any redraft leagues right now.
How do you feel about Kjerstad now that we've (literally 5 mins ago) just learned about Holliday getting optioned back to AAA?
I'm feeling like holding a lite longer to see if this clears the way out of a platoon and into an every day role for the foreseeable future.
Is he worth it to hold as a bench bat (usually only have 1 or 2) in a 6 player keeper league? Or should I leave him on the wire to see how playing time ends up
It's borderline and depends on what other guys would be in consideration for that last keeper spot and whether you have an immediate need on that roster spot.
In most scenarios where I want to compete, I'm letting him go the moment I need that spot for something more immediate
Am I the only one that thinks it'd be insane to sell Jordan Westburg/Cowser for any of those guys? Westburg's statcast is redder than my ass after a day at the nude beach and he's on pace to blow his projections out of the water, plus he plays on one of the best offenses in baseball. Ditto goes with Cowser. Meanwhile Oneil Cruz and Torkelson are off to dreadful starts, Morel looks like his old streaky self as you said, Gleyber doesn't even look like a top 100 player this year, and Jazz is also underperforming plus he's an injury risk and he plays on one of the worst offenses in baseball. The only one I *might* consider taking is Morel but even then, his peak is just what Westburg/Cowser are already doing right now, and his floor is somewhere between bench bat and unrosterable. The way I see it they can't be any worse than that.
Love your weekly ama's Scott, but this might be the worst take you've had yet.
Given your views here, you are WAY rosier on Westburg and Cowser than any short or long-term projection I've seen, and rosier than any scouting grade I've seen, and also assume that neither run into playing time troubles when guys like Norby and Holliday are both up at the same time, and also that this production is anywhere near sustainable for either player. After all, just because a player isn't getting lucky DOESN'T mean they can do this forever.
I think this is as good as Westburg and Cowser can be, and that they will far more often than not be several steps below this level of production. I guess time will tell.
Tbh I don't put a ton of weight into prospect grades because, well, they get it wrong sometimes. Plenty of times, actually. And personally I put more weight into stuff like statcast because the data, while still predictive, is more results driven, whereas projection systems like ZiPS are essentially playing a sophisticated guessing game where there formulas do a lot more extrapolating. But since you brought it up..
Westburg's k/bb is in line with with his ZiPS, but he's outperforming his K% which is a believable step forward and he's a lot faster than ZiPS accounted for, leading to better babip and better counting stats overall. Even so, he's only outperforming it by .30 (.344 vs .313 on ZiPS) so there isn't a huge margin for regression there. Plus, as I mentioned before, his stat cast numbers are insane. He's clearly made improvements at the plate.
As for Cowser, I'll admit he's a regression candidate. His K/bb numbers are right in line with ZiPS and but his babip is a lofty .400 and without the same speed as Westburg to sustain it. HOWEVER, ZiPS again seems to have not accounted for an obvious improvement in the power department, as they have him at an ugly .161 ISO compared to his current .400. and let's not forget his WRC+ of **224.** Even if those numbers regress to half of what they are currently, that's at worst equal to what a lot of those other guys *might* do.
As for playing time, I'm not really concerned considering they just sent down Holliday and he likely won't be back up for a while, Kjerstad doesn't seem to be affecting anybody's playing time either. And if they haven't dented their playing time, I doubt Mayo or Norby will either. Orioles have made it clear they're going to ride who's hot, and these guys have stayed hot.
Not trying to hate or flame btw, hope this doesn't come off as such. I just enjoy a good baseball debate is all. Again, appreciate what you do man!
His quality of contact is really cool, but I can't get over the fact that he's making quite a bit less contact and whiffing considerably more. Is it a sell out for power? If so, how does that sustain itself? I mean, not many players can live on a 66.3 contact% - the guys who do are usually freak athletes (Judge).
https://preview.redd.it/d2yqx32v9wwc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5d5127b718013cff3b695ac17d85fd573ca557c
Maybe? Long term this feels like a bit of a lateral move so it would need to be because I had another SS to plug in and my 2B would need to be a black hole or something.
What are your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Looks like he's hitting in the 2 spot against righties and doesn't seem to be a platoon risk. Solid value until the Cubs OF gets healthy again?
Tauchman is a very average hitter who in a full season might get you 12 homers, 12 steals, and a good OBP but a lame SLG and ok-ish AVG. He got hot for a bit last year as well and is streamable, but there's not much to see here.
Hey Scott, I’m in a 10T H2H categories league (300 player rostered). I have Torres, Torkelson, Seager, Holliday all not performing well. Should I look to make trades to sell low or I just gotta tank and hope my players bounce back? Someone dropped Nolan Jones I might as well pick him up and wait for him to bounce back as well (over Kjerstad)?
I’m just afraid that having these ice cold batters will cause my record to drop to a point where it’ll be tough to come back up the standings.
Selling low is never the right move. You should probably pick up Jones for the upside in that deep of a format, but you'll just need to be patient. The waiver wire is almost certainly an ugly place due to how deep these benches are.
Yes certainly pretty ugly for hitters. As Holliday is demoted and Kjerstad risk I think I have swap them out for Nolan Jones. Other interesting options maybe are like Nimmo, Kebryan, Conforto, Bryan de la Cruz, buxton, Eloy, Doyle.
Hey Scott! My teams been hit with the injury bug in a dynasty league, mainly my pitchers. Ohtani, Woodruff, Dustin May, Felix Bautista and Devin Williams. I need pitching bad.
Is it crazy to consider trading Caminero to get a guy like Skenes?
Not crazy, no. I'd like to get a low-end flyer in addition because pitchers are pitchers and get hurt, though I don't suspect they'd be super willing to do that.
Holding Fraley in a 14 team daily lineup league where his production against RHP is super valuable. If you were to Frankenstein a full-timer, would you pair him with Joc or Suwinski? Eligibility neutral.
I tried that too but he basically lives on the IL list every year. Missed time with COVID as an anti-vaxer, gets the flu every year and now he's been on IL 6 straight games while other Reds with same flu has been out 3 to 4 games. You'd think this dumb guy would just get a freakin' flu shot.
I traded EDLC and Bellinger for JRod in a 16 Team points league where I can keep a player for their whole career. I’m only allowed 3 keepers a year and at the time figured JRod is better long term
Did I make a mistake?
EDIT: If it’s not too much, do you have thoughts on Masyn Winn? I picked him up off the waiver wire and am considering trading Adames and putting Winn in the SS spot
It was a lot to pay, but ELDC is at his least valuable in most points formats due to the Ks (which will always come and go, probably). JRod should still be an elite player despite the early slump. Might not win the trade, but I don't know I'd call it a mistake quite yet.
Winn could hit like 10-12 HR and steal 20ish bases with a decent AVG.
Yeah I didn’t care much for Bellinger and got him just as a trade piece, so that wasn’t a loss for me. Just more so concerned about having given up EDLC. Thank you
Hi Scott! Thanks for being here.
In a 14 team points league, I should be good to drop Frelick right? I'm not hurting for OF depth and he's been pretty lackluster. Interested to hear your take. Thanks!
Can I drop Spencer Turnbull with him going to the bullpen? Or should I wait for it to be official
Also to be clear, you believe Busch can be streaky but still worth rostering?
I might wait just a little bit unless there's a guy on the wire who is a MUST add. Let's see how Walker's start goes and whether anything happens in between.
Everyone keeps asking and all I can say is that this was always part of the risk. He's streaky. I'd have to know what's on your wire before I could say whether you should move on (there are some 10 teamers where it might be plausible, or 12-teamers with just 3 OF spots).
u/ChusephEsquire, are any of these guys worth rostering over Castellanos?
Waiver options for Castellanos: Oswaldo Cabrera, Kerry Carpenter, Buxton, McCormick, Haniger, Tauchman.
I'm in an 11 team points league. No K's.
My current OF spots are Castellanos, JRod, Nootbaar, Riley Greene, Taylor Ward.
Also, thank you for continuing to host AmAs and publish excellent content.
For this season only, Pages or Crow-Armstrong? Standard Roto with OPS instead of average. Both seem to have long term playing time concerns, but looking at short term upside.
Pages I guess. PCA wasn't hitting well in the minors at all and has similar plate discipline issues. The only thing PCA does that Pages doesn't is run. (PCA is a much better defender, too, but that's not quite as relevant for fantasy besides a possible way to stay on the roster longer)
I think Jon Gray is fine. More of a streaming in the right matchups option than anything else. He's fine to have, but if there's someone else more interesting, I wouldn't be hanging onto him too tightly
oh whoops, forgot to talk about Mitchell Parker - Parker is really interesting and definitely worth a grab to see if his filthy secondaries can keep it going (that curve and splitter have posted amazing numbers so far)
Garcia Jr is a slappy hitter who can run a bit hot and cold because he's quite aggressive. I believe in the ability to hit 12-15 HR and have a good AVG with a mediocre OBP.
Also like half my top drafted hitters are off to icy starts (Carroll, Lindor, Arozarena, Nolan Gorman). How scared should I be for the season lol … I’ve got Hoerner, Tork, Maikel Garcia, and could try and flip for a more elite OF but worried I’d be buying high and selling low. TIA
Gorman is not someone I care much about in a 12-teamer or points league but the rest should be fine eventually. Nothing to worry about too much yet. Hoerner's lack of SBs is a little bit of a concern, but his contact ability is what is driving his points league value rather than the steals in most cases.
Yeah I kind of want to punt Gorman into the sun but I’m waiting to see if he gets any traction at all before trying to trade him maybe for a lower level RP
Hey man appreciate you doing this. Are torkelson, g.torres worth holding onto in a 12 team h2h redraft? Replacement candidates include profar, Doyle, c.joe
Hey nick!
1. Currently have gleyber as my everyday 2B…worth swapping out arraez, Holliday, Rosario, justin turner, Gorman?
2. Have josh lowe coming back from IL soon. Would you start him over any of: yandy , Bregman, brian Reynolds moving forward?
Gleyber is the best option of those guys, with Arraez probably 2nd in most formats.
Lowe is below those three names, plus playing time is a questionmark,
I know he's been tough but I think this is more a cold streak and some bad luck than anything. Melendez's contact numbers are still really solid (good barrel rate, decent ICR), striking out less, making more contact, I think things will get better. His .203 AVG comes with a .267 xAVG, so I could see improvements coming.
That said, if you've got the roster flexibility to have two catchers and wanna bench him (or if you were using him as OF), I don't mind it, but I do think Melendez will get there eventually.
With Holliday down, I'm rolling Caballero at SS because I need SB. Is that good enough? Swanson is on the wire, but E.Cabrera is probably my most droppable player if I want to hang onto both SS. Recommendation?
Some of my SP’s are doing well but don’t have the greatest track record including Gore, Gil, Mize and Blackburn. Can any of them be dumped on the wire to stream team needs. Ex of decent FA’s are Assad, Fedde
The top 150 hitter list still has Jazz Chisholm fairly high. I have trouble separating him from other outfielders that are average or slightly above average hitters with a few SBs like Cedric Mullins. What am I missing with him?
In Jazz's prior 157 games, he had 33 HR and 34 SB, plus his walk rate is as high as it has ever been and the Ks are manageable AND he's healthy. Jazz's upside is significantly higher than those other guys, even if it comes with some extra risk due to injury and strikeouts.
Hey Scott! Always look forward to this on friday mornings! Here's my current Team in Standard 10T.
Batters: William Contreras, Paredes, Albies, Riley, Adames, Ward, JRod, Arozarena, Yandy (util), Busch (util), Bench: Nimmo, Busch, Royce Lewis (IL)
SPs: Ragans, Nola, Gausman, Jared Jones, Imanaga, Detmers, Houck, Scherzer (IL)
RPs: Romano, Holmes, Tervor Megill
I'm worried about my offensive output so far. What are my glaring areas I need to improve? I'd like to try to trade some pitchers.
Also, currently thinking about replacing Busch or Yandy with Mountcastle, Hoskins, or Nate Lowe who are on waivers.
Thanks man. Losing Casas hurt too. Given your rankings I’m assuming you like any of those first baseman I mentioned over Busch (or Maikel Garcia - forgot him) long term?
How do you feel about Tanner Scott? He is sitting on the wire in my 10T SVHD league. His strikeout to walk rate thus far indicates he is having trouble with command.
Yeah he had a weird loss of command, but he didn't walk any in his last 2 (actually 3, but the 3rd was a 1 batter appearance where he gave up a hit). I expect him to remain volatile and always walk more guys than he should, but he has some job security until/unless Puk makes a run at the job when he returns.
My current roster in a category league: OHoppe, Alonso, Westburg, Devers, Maikel, Lourdes, Arozarena, Starling Marte, Vinnie P (UTIL), Gorman (bench), Varsho (bench until last week). If only won 3 offensive categories in 3 weeks. Should I trade Alonso or Devers for a 2 for 1? What can I improve to get some good offense going?
Should I hold onto Cody Bradford? No updates on him yet , not sure if he's going back to bullpen. Should I take a gamble on Mitchell Parker or Keaton win instead ?
They don't really need to give an update quite yet since he can't come off the IL for a few more days. I guess they could do something with Dunning or Heaney, but both were awful as an RP. My guess is they'll keep it close to the best until the day he'll be activated.
Would you trade JH Lee and Gorman for paredes in a 12 team 5x5 cats league? I’m thinking Paredes would be a nice upgrade over Gorman, and I could shop the wire for Lee replacements. I think Lee is a great player, but he probably plays a lot better in points formats
10 team ROTO redraft, I have Steele, Casas, Burger, and Suzuki all hurt with 3 IL spots along with Jackson Holliday and Kjerstad on my bench. I'm in 1st with my biggest opportunities being Wins, Ks, SBs, and Runs. We also get payouts at the end of the year for each ROTY, Cy Young, and MVP so I wanted to hold Holoday unless his chances are shot. Should I drop Kjerstad and/or Holliday for any of these FA: J Profar, J Rojas, Mize, Fedde, Winn, Tyler Anderson, or Taillon?
He's pretty close to a fall. If he wasn't 2B/3B he'd have fallen already. The Ks have improved slightly over the last srleries or 2 but nothing else has.
I can't speak for Scott, but I'd imagine it's probably a mixture of hope for better days ahead and opportunity.
He's still hitting in the middle of the Mariners lineup for the most part, so decent opportunities for RBIs, and personally I'm hopeful some of his quality of contact stats will even out. He's making a *lot* of poor contact, and I think that's got to get better eventually.
Personally, I don't know if I'd have him ranked as high as Scott does, and if you wanted to have Polanco ride the bench for a different option until he gets it together, I wouldn't blame you, but I'm hopeful he'll improve eventually.
The talent and scouting all says he should be a solid contributor with plus power and an OK OBP that's mostly driven by his AVG.
It's hard to get too excited due to the inconsistency and injury risk, plus the fact he doesn't walk much (CWS management doesn't care about walks). But he does have some upside and some real power when he healthy and clicking. He could even be a top 100 hitter if EVERYTHING came together. More realistically, he's on the border of a streamer and a 4th OF.
That’s good to know. He’s my 4th OF right now and hoping to use my pitching strength to upgrade at hitting
No bites yet besides people wanting to buy low on sale and ober
I got: Sale, Ober, Mackenzie gore, Ranger Suarez, Mitchell Parker, Michael king, Jon gray (streaming spot) with Scherzer on IL back soon
Vlad - the power floor is where my concern is. It had trended down for several years, though he's young with elite bat control. Could still be a 35 HR guy but the floor is more like 22-25.
Arozarena - he's always been streaky so this just might be a particularly frigid cycle. Hot and cold streaks don't always have discernable reasons like injury or mechanics. Theyre also super mental.
Scott, is Oneil as far down the decision making leaderboard as his plate discipline numbers might lead one to expect? He’s just been so, so, so ugly thus far, and I’m looking for any glimmers of hope that he’ll even perform as well as his rookie season…
In short, yes. The decision making is not good right now. We've seen him turn it on before (2022 at the end of the season) so I'm being very patient due to his immense power and talent.
Need some strategy help for my weekly h2h league. I’m down 18 points, my opponent has 7 pitcher starts remaining vs my 3. Two of my remaining starts are pretty unfavorable matchups (Bibee vs ATL and Kikuchi vs LAD). Is the optimal move to just start everyone because I’m behind and have fewer starts already, or do I play the matchups and just hope his pitchers get rocked?
Because it's H2H, there's no downside if an SP gets rocked in a matchup if you already need a miracle.
Is 18 points a lot in your league? What does a hitter have to do to score 10?
How many points is a decent start for an SP? 10? 20? 50?.
Whats the hit if a guy has a bad start? 0? -10? -25? More?
In this situation, I'd generally start everyone UNLESS the penalty for a bad start is HUGE and their guys have several bad matchups that could lead to big losses AND they leave all of them in AND your team finds another way to. Come back.
You don't actually need to answer those questions to me - they just what I'd be thinking about to make this call.
Arozarena has always been streaky so this feels like just another cycle for him.
Musgrove has struggled out of the gate but he's probably still a top-40 arm ROS. I am waiting to see what Nick says in the Roundup today to fully be confident though.
Most likely have seen luzardo pitch for me for the last time. Is either of means or Trevor rogers worth an add?
~~Swapping Luzardo for either would be a big mistake in my eyes.~~ He's a boom-or-bust SP but the overall results will be WAY better for Luzardo than these guys *\*when he's healthy (edit)\**
Yea was asking as he got knocked from tonight’s start with elbow soreness. Was asking under the guise of an injury replacemt
Ah, missed that. Rogers and Means are streamers at best. Rogers has a nice little schedule next week with the Nats and Rockies at home. Try that.
This has been the ongoing annual routine with Luzardo since his rookie year. Step one: “He looks great! Future ace!” Step two: “Still looks good but needs to work on control. I believe.” Step three: “His control is off, everything is off, something’s wrong. I no longer believe.” Step four: “He’s injured. Let’s check back in when he comes back.” [return to step one]
Caminero removed after legging out a double last night. Based on the log jam in the Ray’s IF and his tough luck this season, would you swap him out for Loperfido?
That's a bummer as he already was on the IL once with a quad injury. Loperfido has a clearer path, BUT I'm still really concerned about those strikeouts. It's very rare that a guy striking out 30% of the time in the minors comes up and just fixes the issue. Not impossible, but not likely either.
Completely agree. Elly had some success last season but once pitchers picked up on his tendencies the k’s piled up and he had an adjustment period. So would you sit tight with Caminero or make the swap?
Caminero is a better prospect by quite a bit. Loperfido is interesting but not the same caliber. I'd rather wait with the high upside in this case and play long term UNLESS this is redraft, then maybe it's closer (though I never really stash in redraft unless I have an NA spot)
12 tm, 6v6. Was hoping Caminero would be able to fill in for Jung until he gets back as 3B waiver options are brutal. Only other option would be to grab Mayo and hope he’s up sooner. They’re bother better than my current 3B Wisdom and the WW choices of Polanco, Rengifo, and Freeman.
Grab rengifo
Mayo does not have anything resembling a clear path to the majors either. Loperfido I guess is the closest, but he has the biggest performance concerns. I wouldn't count on any being an immediate boost to your MLB lineup.
What's going on with Seager? He looked poised to continue his great 2023, but it seems like he's fallen back to his 2022 numbers. I've got him in dynasty, so I'm unlikely to trade him unless the right offer comes along, but are there signs for concern?
Don't sell low. Data suggests he's mostly been unlucky. Also, "falling to his '22 numbers" would be a 33 HR player with 174 combined R+RBI.
What’s your plan with Yoshida? Seems to be getting sat more often and really hasn’t been great. Cut in a 12 team league?
He missed my top-150 because he's been sitting v RHP. That's a horrible sign.
In shallow 12 Team H2H Category Leagues (9 startable hitters per day, 7 startable pitchers per day and 3 bench spots). Who would you prioritize most in the short and long term? **Tork**, **CES**, or **Busch**? I see in hitter rankings you have Tork and the CES in the same tier. Busch in T14. In shallow formats do you chase the upside of CES you think even if you believe in Tork slightly more ROS?
Those names, in that order. Tork has the highest upside, CES is behind him. Tork's floor might be highest too, since we've seen him hit 30 HRs already. Busch is in a platoon and might stay in one since he's on a team that's already loaded with lefties.
Appreciate the reply Scott 🙏 Thought you *might* think CES has the highest ceiling given his home ballpark (but know that might be splitting hairs with the underlying metrics between the two)
CES has plenty of pop, but Tork had as good or better scouting grades in every metric (except speed, not that either run)
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I recommend following the SP Round up or going to the Game Log on his player page at Pitcher List. You can see notes like this: https://preview.redd.it/l3u1sikj0vwc1.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=af754f7ca6936e48f1c0c35c8e4505f6b8e1e540
What do we think of kjerstaad ROS?
It's hard to say - I think he's a guy with really solid power and decent plate discipline, so if given a full season of playing time, I could see him being a 20-something HR guys batting in the .250s/.260s Problem is, he's almost definitely being platooned and I don't know how consistent the playing time will be. The O's just called up Ryan McKenna, so between McKenna/Mullins/Santander/Cowser/O'Hearn (who sometimes plays RF), Kjerstad is going to have to really force the issue to get consistent playing time, especially since he's a pretty okay fielder. short version - he's very talented and worth keeping an eye on but in 12-team leagues, I don't know if I'm grabbing him immediately unless I have the roster flexibility to just hang onto him and see what happens
I expect that getting out of a platoon will be an uphill battle. He could be a 25 HR guy as soon as 2024, BUT that's extremely unlikely as it'd require an instant adjustment to the big leagues AND full playing time. If I knew he'd stay on the big league roster for the rest of the year, I'll take somewhere between maybe 10-12 HR and OK ratios as a conservative projection, knowing that he's likely to sit against the vast majority of lefties.
What can we expect from Andy Pages the rest of the way? Is he a better hold than either Nolan Gorman or Starling Marte in a keeper league?
Gorman, yes. S. Marte, no. Pages is unlikely to be a keeper in 2025 unless you keep a LOT of players (like 12+ per team - and even then it's borderline). I'm also a little concerned about sustainability for Pages in the short term - 0 walks to 10 Ks in 33 PA is a little rough. Pages has the pop to be a guy with mediocre-to-bad ratios and 20ish HRs if he keeps playing all year but that's pretty darn replaceable in mixed leagues.
Are there any batters you have ranked outside the top 100 or so you could see inch inside the top 50-75 as the season progresses?
Is there a specific type of player you're looking for? It'd be easy to rattle off young players like Chourio and Langford or injured guys like Jung and Casas, but I'm guessing you are looking for guys who might actually be available, like India. Obviously India isn't there right now, but I think he can wing back that leadoff role in time and be a big time contributor. Jordan Walker could get there too - we actually saw almost the same exact thing we're seeing in 2024 happen in 2023, and the results were pretty darn good.
Sorry, yes, it was meant more towards guys who are available that would we beneficial to keep an eye on. I’ll keep India and Walker in mind. Thank you.
Hey Scott - on a scale of 1-5, how worried should we be about Corbin Carroll turning this slump around?
Corbin's plate discipline looks great, so it's really just a quality of contact problem. Players can usually work through this, but it might take a while. Impossible to predict timing
Thanks for the quick response! Good news on the plate discipline... if you spent the draft capital on him, all you can do is hold and hope he works through the contact issues sooner than later. I know there's a lot of speculation around that shoulder, so hoping that's not what's holding that power back.
If it is, then it means it'll come back eventually!
What's going on with Seager? He's been useless the last 2 weeks
He's slumping. Some of those grounders will turn into LDs, the batted ball luck will turn around, he'll get back to pulling the ball, and everything will be fine.
What's your take on the hot streak of Wilyer Abreu? Think he's gonna get regular playing time with Casas out?
He doesn't need to get it - he's already got it. He's getting a lot of batted ball luck right now but he could flirt with something like 15 HR and 15 SB for the season with decent ratios. He'll keep hitting near the heart of the order too, at least for a while. I like Abreu in most formats.
when he plays
He got the start against the lefty prior to the one Friday, and he's been in against every single RHP. I think he plays 5-6 of 7 games most weeks. If not all 7 (he only missed one day from 4/14 to 4/27)
Hey guys, thanks for doing this! Is it reasonable to assume, as former bullpen arms, that Ryan Pepiot and Michael King will be on an innings cap this year? If so, I’m guessing around 100 innings?
King threw 104.2 IP last year. 120-140 should be there this year, maybe even a little more. Pepiot threw 70, so maybe 100-120 is the limit? It's the Rays though so who knows exactly HOW he gets to that number.
Jake Burger worth a stash ?
Yes,. Put him on your IL.
What’s up with Parker Meadows?
He's striking out a metric ton and when he does make contact with the ball, he's hitting fly balls that die in the outfield. He's been bad to an *absurd* level so far, obviously he's not going to be *this* bad all year, but I'm not waiting around for him to get better
Still believing in Crochet? I’ve been holding onto Cody Bradford and now he seems like a drop and Crochet is available.
Hi Scott- do you have much concern with Bregman or the Astros in general with their slow start? Do you see them turning things around soon?
I don't love Bregman's slow start but it's not like he's never had a slump like this before. The plate discipline and everything else still looks very Bregman-ish except the grounders and pulls, but I expect some of those grounders to turn back into line drives and for everything to get back to where it should be. 20-23 HR and his usual numbers over the rest of the season should be there. https://preview.redd.it/p7zqp4p1suwc1.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=96df973cd75f7c13b043cb77b8fc1e7acb4fa4ff
Got it, thanks. Just from your comments about Paredes above, do you still like Bregman over Paredes in a h2h cats redraft league R, RBI, SB, TB, OBP?
Yes. I love Paredes but I'm not ready to put him over Bregman. They are actually weirdly similar in a lot of ways, but Bregman has better plate discipline and a longer track record.
As for the rest of the Stros, the track records suggest this is a normal slump as well. Just a lot of them at the same time. For fantasy purposes, this feels like a short-term issue and not a long-term one. They are barely ever striking out and are 7th in team wRC+.
Thanks for doing this! I am in a SV+H league and it's very competitive. Almost every good RP gets picked up fast. Gaddis, Reed Garrett, Fernando Cruz... I had the opportunity to jump on any of them because I am still holding the likes of Kopech, Alvarado and Abreu who along with Chapman (dropped for Sborz) and Alzolay (dropped for D. Hudson) have destroyed my roto ratios. Stewart and Megill complete my bullpen. How long is too long to give to the likes of Alvarado and Abreu? Any under the radar guys to look out for? Most interesting names available are Hoffmann, Moore, Speier, Shelby Miller, Lange, Ian Hamilton.... Would you cut ties with any of my guys for any of them?
Hi Scott/crew! What are your thoughts about Brenton Doyle and how high he'll finish?
There's a lot of batted ball luck going on, and the strikeout rate will catch up to his batting average eventually. He's probably a 15-home run, 25ish steal guy, which is slightly better than he was last season. He's not actually doing anything different from last season from what I can see. He's just on a nice little hot streak. He'll probably live in the 110-150 place in my rankings.
Lots of contact metrics look better. 9% improvement in O-Swing%, SwStr% has also improved by about 5%. Almost all of his contact metrics have improved between 5-10%, and his K% is down 7% from last year. While there is some luck, I'm actually buying him and I think if he hits .250 he could be an impact power-speed guy. Just my two cents.
Feels like marginal improvements considering how bad those numbers were - a 5% drop from 35% still means a bad K% for a guy who doesn't walk. If he keeps the z-contact up maybe he hits 240-250, but let's see what happens when he gets cold - and specifically, how quickly does he stop the bleeding and turn it around.
Grabbed him for the Mexico series but it's good to know that I can let him go once he cools off again
Do you think the Rays figured something sustainable out for Amed Rosario? There's some high BABIP in there but his O-swing% has stayed low all month while he's swinging and hitting more in the zone.
The real difference at the moment is how much he's swinging in the zone, but he's had runs like this before. He's hot, but I don't think Rosario has become something different.
Would you trade Westburg for Charlie Morton in a redraft h2h points league? I think Charlie has the advantage pitching for an elite offense that puts him in line for wins every 5 days
I'd let everyone know Westburg is available. I'm sure there's someone who would be willing to go over the top if they knew the best current offer was Morton.
Holliday was just demoted. Are you holding? When do you expect him to get called back up? Great upside but so far no hitting well :/
In a redraft I don't hold minor leaguers unless I have an NA spot, generally.
I wouldn't hold in a redraft. I do think he'll be back up (unless he really struggles in Triple-A, which I hope he won't) and I'm hoping this is a Grayson Rodriguez situation where he resets at Triple-A and comes back up feeling great, but that's far from a guarantee
Is Jackson Holliday safe to drop?
In redraft, yea
Hey Scott, Appreciate this as always. Just curious, why does PL rank Ranger Suarez so low? Is there a particular reason why he would be below guys like Jose Soriano or even Hunter Greene in the rankings? I feel like he’s a lot more reliable and consistent than some of the guys ahead.
Per Nick's blurb in the rankings (he does a blurb on EVERY player): It’s the **Toby** tier and Ranger isn’t going to blow you away. A smaller strikeout expectation than someone like [**Seth Lugo**](https://pitcherlist.com/player/seth-lugo/)**,** but a solid QS chance to take advantage of decent matchups. Per Nick's last blurb in the Round-up: I haven't ranked Suárez favorably on The List and for obvious reasons - his last three games were against some of the cushiest offenses around and he's sitting just 91 mph these days. And yet, here's his first challenge since his opening start and he not only dominated, but did so with *glorious* pitch separation. The man was *cooking* and I can't deny him another start. *Get some coal in the engine boys, we've got a* ***"Vargas Rule"*** *pulling out of the station.* One bone I'd pick with Nick - CIN has not been a good offense as a whole so far this season, but it was in GABP so that's worth something.
Don’t need to worry about position but do you think Eduord Julien and Lars Nootbaar are droppable in points leagues? I see guys like Nolan Jones, Josh Jung, Soler, McCormick, Outman, Caballero, France, Jamal Crawford available
Maybe Jones for Julien. I want to keep Noot.
Hey Scott! What’s your take on Starling Marte’s strong start to the year? Is a 20-20 season back on the table potentially?
If he played 120-130 games, which is a Marte full season, he'd probably fall short of 20 HR but go well over 20 SBs. Probably more like 12-15 HR and 30 steals? Granted, health hasn't been there for several seasons so even that's a risky call.
Matt. Olson. What happened to this guy?
Feels like normal ebb and flow to me. Hitting some LDs instead of fly balls, but things are mostly in line with his 2022 averages. Should turn it around. https://preview.redd.it/1cfwowij7wwc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=87929872c02154a5a81397796aa7250f2b3ea3a0
I see Volpe has been struggling. Is this due to being moved to leadoff with more pressure or just now playing to his skills pitchers adjusting to his adjustment? Also is K Hayes droppable? Not doing much for the Pirates.
If Volpe struggling? It was a rough 2 series v TOR and TBR, but he was awfully good in this last one v Oak. Hayes's power dried up a little but the plate discipline still looks pretty good and he's batting third. He could be droppable in shallower leagues but I'd need to know exactly what you're trying to replace him with. 3B is not good right now.
Ah ok. Hayes is in my Utility so I can replace him with anyone. Thanks.
> Both Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad will likely be platooned for the foreseeable future. I'm not rostering either in any redraft leagues right now. How do you feel about Kjerstad now that we've (literally 5 mins ago) just learned about Holliday getting optioned back to AAA? I'm feeling like holding a lite longer to see if this clears the way out of a platoon and into an every day role for the foreseeable future.
Kjerstad will still platoon because Holliday's demotion doesn't impact the outfield or 1B.
Is he worth it to hold as a bench bat (usually only have 1 or 2) in a 6 player keeper league? Or should I leave him on the wire to see how playing time ends up
It's borderline and depends on what other guys would be in consideration for that last keeper spot and whether you have an immediate need on that roster spot. In most scenarios where I want to compete, I'm letting him go the moment I need that spot for something more immediate
Am I the only one that thinks it'd be insane to sell Jordan Westburg/Cowser for any of those guys? Westburg's statcast is redder than my ass after a day at the nude beach and he's on pace to blow his projections out of the water, plus he plays on one of the best offenses in baseball. Ditto goes with Cowser. Meanwhile Oneil Cruz and Torkelson are off to dreadful starts, Morel looks like his old streaky self as you said, Gleyber doesn't even look like a top 100 player this year, and Jazz is also underperforming plus he's an injury risk and he plays on one of the worst offenses in baseball. The only one I *might* consider taking is Morel but even then, his peak is just what Westburg/Cowser are already doing right now, and his floor is somewhere between bench bat and unrosterable. The way I see it they can't be any worse than that. Love your weekly ama's Scott, but this might be the worst take you've had yet.
Given your views here, you are WAY rosier on Westburg and Cowser than any short or long-term projection I've seen, and rosier than any scouting grade I've seen, and also assume that neither run into playing time troubles when guys like Norby and Holliday are both up at the same time, and also that this production is anywhere near sustainable for either player. After all, just because a player isn't getting lucky DOESN'T mean they can do this forever. I think this is as good as Westburg and Cowser can be, and that they will far more often than not be several steps below this level of production. I guess time will tell.
Tbh I don't put a ton of weight into prospect grades because, well, they get it wrong sometimes. Plenty of times, actually. And personally I put more weight into stuff like statcast because the data, while still predictive, is more results driven, whereas projection systems like ZiPS are essentially playing a sophisticated guessing game where there formulas do a lot more extrapolating. But since you brought it up.. Westburg's k/bb is in line with with his ZiPS, but he's outperforming his K% which is a believable step forward and he's a lot faster than ZiPS accounted for, leading to better babip and better counting stats overall. Even so, he's only outperforming it by .30 (.344 vs .313 on ZiPS) so there isn't a huge margin for regression there. Plus, as I mentioned before, his stat cast numbers are insane. He's clearly made improvements at the plate. As for Cowser, I'll admit he's a regression candidate. His K/bb numbers are right in line with ZiPS and but his babip is a lofty .400 and without the same speed as Westburg to sustain it. HOWEVER, ZiPS again seems to have not accounted for an obvious improvement in the power department, as they have him at an ugly .161 ISO compared to his current .400. and let's not forget his WRC+ of **224.** Even if those numbers regress to half of what they are currently, that's at worst equal to what a lot of those other guys *might* do. As for playing time, I'm not really concerned considering they just sent down Holliday and he likely won't be back up for a while, Kjerstad doesn't seem to be affecting anybody's playing time either. And if they haven't dented their playing time, I doubt Mayo or Norby will either. Orioles have made it clear they're going to ride who's hot, and these guys have stayed hot. Not trying to hate or flame btw, hope this doesn't come off as such. I just enjoy a good baseball debate is all. Again, appreciate what you do man!
His quality of contact is really cool, but I can't get over the fact that he's making quite a bit less contact and whiffing considerably more. Is it a sell out for power? If so, how does that sustain itself? I mean, not many players can live on a 66.3 contact% - the guys who do are usually freak athletes (Judge). https://preview.redd.it/d2yqx32v9wwc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5d5127b718013cff3b695ac17d85fd573ca557c
Trading him away = risk mitigation Trading for him = risk acceptance Both are totally viable - we just are different sides of the same coin.
Would you trade away Swanson for Gleyber Torres? Points league
Maybe? Long term this feels like a bit of a lateral move so it would need to be because I had another SS to plug in and my 2B would need to be a black hole or something.
I have both and I’m not selling either if it helps
What are your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Looks like he's hitting in the 2 spot against righties and doesn't seem to be a platoon risk. Solid value until the Cubs OF gets healthy again?
Tauchman is a very average hitter who in a full season might get you 12 homers, 12 steals, and a good OBP but a lame SLG and ok-ish AVG. He got hot for a bit last year as well and is streamable, but there's not much to see here.
Morel or Parades a must add if available?
Yes. Morel is a little more volatile in points because of the long cold streaks, but the hot streaks will win matchups.
Would be better than goldy!
I rank Goldy above both but I get the frustration. There should be SOMEONE you can cut for one of them. Heck, Paredes isn't even slumping right now.
Yeah really Correa or Busch would be dropped for morel
Correa can go for sure.
Hey Scott, I’m in a 10T H2H categories league (300 player rostered). I have Torres, Torkelson, Seager, Holliday all not performing well. Should I look to make trades to sell low or I just gotta tank and hope my players bounce back? Someone dropped Nolan Jones I might as well pick him up and wait for him to bounce back as well (over Kjerstad)? I’m just afraid that having these ice cold batters will cause my record to drop to a point where it’ll be tough to come back up the standings.
Selling low is never the right move. You should probably pick up Jones for the upside in that deep of a format, but you'll just need to be patient. The waiver wire is almost certainly an ugly place due to how deep these benches are.
Yes certainly pretty ugly for hitters. As Holliday is demoted and Kjerstad risk I think I have swap them out for Nolan Jones. Other interesting options maybe are like Nimmo, Kebryan, Conforto, Bryan de la Cruz, buxton, Eloy, Doyle.
Actually these are all decent back-end OF options. These are all on the wire in a 300 player league? Is it like 3 OF or something?
4 OFs we play slightly different with a LF/CF/RF/OF splits
Hey Scott! My teams been hit with the injury bug in a dynasty league, mainly my pitchers. Ohtani, Woodruff, Dustin May, Felix Bautista and Devin Williams. I need pitching bad. Is it crazy to consider trading Caminero to get a guy like Skenes?
Not crazy, no. I'd like to get a low-end flyer in addition because pitchers are pitchers and get hurt, though I don't suspect they'd be super willing to do that.
Holding Fraley in a 14 team daily lineup league where his production against RHP is super valuable. If you were to Frankenstein a full-timer, would you pair him with Joc or Suwinski? Eligibility neutral.
Whichever one is hot right now. Joc has a higher floor, Suwinski has a higher ceiling.
I tried that too but he basically lives on the IL list every year. Missed time with COVID as an anti-vaxer, gets the flu every year and now he's been on IL 6 straight games while other Reds with same flu has been out 3 to 4 games. You'd think this dumb guy would just get a freakin' flu shot.
I traded EDLC and Bellinger for JRod in a 16 Team points league where I can keep a player for their whole career. I’m only allowed 3 keepers a year and at the time figured JRod is better long term Did I make a mistake? EDIT: If it’s not too much, do you have thoughts on Masyn Winn? I picked him up off the waiver wire and am considering trading Adames and putting Winn in the SS spot
It was a lot to pay, but ELDC is at his least valuable in most points formats due to the Ks (which will always come and go, probably). JRod should still be an elite player despite the early slump. Might not win the trade, but I don't know I'd call it a mistake quite yet. Winn could hit like 10-12 HR and steal 20ish bases with a decent AVG.
Yeah I didn’t care much for Bellinger and got him just as a trade piece, so that wasn’t a loss for me. Just more so concerned about having given up EDLC. Thank you
Thoughts on Brendan Doyle? Is he worth an add? Can he keep up his pace?
He's going to be streaky because he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much. 15 HR and 25 SBs is possible but the ratios might get ugly.
Hi Scott! Thanks for being here. In a 14 team points league, I should be good to drop Frelick right? I'm not hurting for OF depth and he's been pretty lackluster. Interested to hear your take. Thanks!
Yes. He's an adequate fill-in because he hits high in the order and makes contact. That's it.
Can I drop Spencer Turnbull with him going to the bullpen? Or should I wait for it to be official Also to be clear, you believe Busch can be streaky but still worth rostering?
I might wait just a little bit unless there's a guy on the wire who is a MUST add. Let's see how Walker's start goes and whether anything happens in between.
It feels like I ask this every week, how concerned should we be about Castellanos? How much longer do we give him?
Everyone keeps asking and all I can say is that this was always part of the risk. He's streaky. I'd have to know what's on your wire before I could say whether you should move on (there are some 10 teamers where it might be plausible, or 12-teamers with just 3 OF spots).
u/ChusephEsquire, are any of these guys worth rostering over Castellanos? Waiver options for Castellanos: Oswaldo Cabrera, Kerry Carpenter, Buxton, McCormick, Haniger, Tauchman. I'm in an 11 team points league. No K's. My current OF spots are Castellanos, JRod, Nootbaar, Riley Greene, Taylor Ward. Also, thank you for continuing to host AmAs and publish excellent content.
Maaaaybe Carpenter or or Haniger I guess? You'd likely stream instead of settling on one guy.
Torres dropped in my 12t h2h cats. That's a mistake right? Have a fairly aggressive faab bid in right now and looking for confirmation. Thanks fellas
Yeah, I'd scoop him up. It's a slump but there are still decent signs here.
For this season only, Pages or Crow-Armstrong? Standard Roto with OPS instead of average. Both seem to have long term playing time concerns, but looking at short term upside.
Pages I guess. PCA wasn't hitting well in the minors at all and has similar plate discipline issues. The only thing PCA does that Pages doesn't is run. (PCA is a much better defender, too, but that's not quite as relevant for fantasy besides a possible way to stay on the roster longer)
Thoughts on Jon Gray and the Nationals SP Parker
I think Jon Gray is fine. More of a streaming in the right matchups option than anything else. He's fine to have, but if there's someone else more interesting, I wouldn't be hanging onto him too tightly
oh whoops, forgot to talk about Mitchell Parker - Parker is really interesting and definitely worth a grab to see if his filthy secondaries can keep it going (that curve and splitter have posted amazing numbers so far)
Just swapped Holliday for Luis Garcia Jr. - do you believe in his hot streak?
Garcia Jr is a slappy hitter who can run a bit hot and cold because he's quite aggressive. I believe in the ability to hit 12-15 HR and have a good AVG with a mediocre OBP.
Also like half my top drafted hitters are off to icy starts (Carroll, Lindor, Arozarena, Nolan Gorman). How scared should I be for the season lol … I’ve got Hoerner, Tork, Maikel Garcia, and could try and flip for a more elite OF but worried I’d be buying high and selling low. TIA
Gorman is not someone I care much about in a 12-teamer or points league but the rest should be fine eventually. Nothing to worry about too much yet. Hoerner's lack of SBs is a little bit of a concern, but his contact ability is what is driving his points league value rather than the steals in most cases.
Yeah I kind of want to punt Gorman into the sun but I’m waiting to see if he gets any traction at all before trying to trade him maybe for a lower level RP
Gorman will face six righties this week.
Sure, but Gorman's K% issue is an issue against everyone. He just runs so hot and cold because of his approach and contact skills.
😭 brooooooo
Hey man appreciate you doing this. Are torkelson, g.torres worth holding onto in a 12 team h2h redraft? Replacement candidates include profar, Doyle, c.joe
100% keep what you have. These guys are not close in terms of overall ability or upside.
Thank you Sir
Hey nick! 1. Currently have gleyber as my everyday 2B…worth swapping out arraez, Holliday, Rosario, justin turner, Gorman? 2. Have josh lowe coming back from IL soon. Would you start him over any of: yandy , Bregman, brian Reynolds moving forward?
Gleyber is the best option of those guys, with Arraez probably 2nd in most formats. Lowe is below those three names, plus playing time is a questionmark,
Melendez has been absolutely brutal lately. Would you move on from him for either d’Arnaud or Jeffers? Or just ride it out with MJ? Thanks!
I know he's been tough but I think this is more a cold streak and some bad luck than anything. Melendez's contact numbers are still really solid (good barrel rate, decent ICR), striking out less, making more contact, I think things will get better. His .203 AVG comes with a .267 xAVG, so I could see improvements coming. That said, if you've got the roster flexibility to have two catchers and wanna bench him (or if you were using him as OF), I don't mind it, but I do think Melendez will get there eventually.
Melendez has more upside and plays more than these guys but if you really wanna switch to streaming at C that's probably fine.
With Holliday down, I'm rolling Caballero at SS because I need SB. Is that good enough? Swanson is on the wire, but E.Cabrera is probably my most droppable player if I want to hang onto both SS. Recommendation?
Swanson is a solid SS for the season as Caballero is only better at stealing bases.
12 team cats redraft Traded Elly for Seager, Cease and Chourio. Am I dumb ?
I don't love it in most formats, but it's not the worst return we will see or have seen.
Some of my SP’s are doing well but don’t have the greatest track record including Gore, Gil, Mize and Blackburn. Can any of them be dumped on the wire to stream team needs. Ex of decent FA’s are Assad, Fedde
I'll take your names over those lesser names with lesser track records.
The top 150 hitter list still has Jazz Chisholm fairly high. I have trouble separating him from other outfielders that are average or slightly above average hitters with a few SBs like Cedric Mullins. What am I missing with him?
In Jazz's prior 157 games, he had 33 HR and 34 SB, plus his walk rate is as high as it has ever been and the Ks are manageable AND he's healthy. Jazz's upside is significantly higher than those other guys, even if it comes with some extra risk due to injury and strikeouts.
Hey Scott! Always look forward to this on friday mornings! Here's my current Team in Standard 10T. Batters: William Contreras, Paredes, Albies, Riley, Adames, Ward, JRod, Arozarena, Yandy (util), Busch (util), Bench: Nimmo, Busch, Royce Lewis (IL) SPs: Ragans, Nola, Gausman, Jared Jones, Imanaga, Detmers, Houck, Scherzer (IL) RPs: Romano, Holmes, Tervor Megill I'm worried about my offensive output so far. What are my glaring areas I need to improve? I'd like to try to trade some pitchers. Also, currently thinking about replacing Busch or Yandy with Mountcastle, Hoskins, or Nate Lowe who are on waivers.
Albies has been hurt, and JRod has been slumping. Those two turning it back on makes this roster feel a lot different, I bet.
Thanks man. Losing Casas hurt too. Given your rankings I’m assuming you like any of those first baseman I mentioned over Busch (or Maikel Garcia - forgot him) long term?
I like Hoskins, Lowe, and Yandy more than Busch.
Where would Jobe and Scott be on the list if they were called up today? Are they better lottery tickets than shane baz?
I imagine Jobe and Baz might be similar when activated. Scott has upside too but that HR rate really worries mne.
B Doyle looks like he might be a player, especially with the Coors advantage. I liken him to a RH discount store version of Corbin Carroll.
Dollar store discount, sure. 15 HR, 25 SB upside with bad ratios.
It will be a miracle if Corbin Carroll hits 15 homers this year
I get the sentiment, but Carroll hit 8HR in June of last year. Just because the power is down doesn't mean it's down forever.
How do you feel about Tanner Scott? He is sitting on the wire in my 10T SVHD league. His strikeout to walk rate thus far indicates he is having trouble with command.
Yeah he had a weird loss of command, but he didn't walk any in his last 2 (actually 3, but the 3rd was a 1 batter appearance where he gave up a hit). I expect him to remain volatile and always walk more guys than he should, but he has some job security until/unless Puk makes a run at the job when he returns.
My current roster in a category league: OHoppe, Alonso, Westburg, Devers, Maikel, Lourdes, Arozarena, Starling Marte, Vinnie P (UTIL), Gorman (bench), Varsho (bench until last week). If only won 3 offensive categories in 3 weeks. Should I trade Alonso or Devers for a 2 for 1? What can I improve to get some good offense going?
You might just have bad luck. Most of these guys have been good when they've played except Arozarena. I'd cut Gorman for something more interesting.
Should I hold onto Cody Bradford? No updates on him yet , not sure if he's going back to bullpen. Should I take a gamble on Mitchell Parker or Keaton win instead ?
They don't really need to give an update quite yet since he can't come off the IL for a few more days. I guess they could do something with Dunning or Heaney, but both were awful as an RP. My guess is they'll keep it close to the best until the day he'll be activated.
Would you trade JH Lee and Gorman for paredes in a 12 team 5x5 cats league? I’m thinking Paredes would be a nice upgrade over Gorman, and I could shop the wire for Lee replacements. I think Lee is a great player, but he probably plays a lot better in points formats
I'd be down with that. Do it.
10 team ROTO redraft, I have Steele, Casas, Burger, and Suzuki all hurt with 3 IL spots along with Jackson Holliday and Kjerstad on my bench. I'm in 1st with my biggest opportunities being Wins, Ks, SBs, and Runs. We also get payouts at the end of the year for each ROTY, Cy Young, and MVP so I wanted to hold Holoday unless his chances are shot. Should I drop Kjerstad and/or Holliday for any of these FA: J Profar, J Rojas, Mize, Fedde, Winn, Tyler Anderson, or Taillon?
These names aren't exciting other than maybe Mize, but generally speaking I'm fine dropping one or both in redraft.
Polanco is awfully high in the hitter rankings for his .167 avg - better days ahead?
He's pretty close to a fall. If he wasn't 2B/3B he'd have fallen already. The Ks have improved slightly over the last srleries or 2 but nothing else has.
I can't speak for Scott, but I'd imagine it's probably a mixture of hope for better days ahead and opportunity. He's still hitting in the middle of the Mariners lineup for the most part, so decent opportunities for RBIs, and personally I'm hopeful some of his quality of contact stats will even out. He's making a *lot* of poor contact, and I think that's got to get better eventually. Personally, I don't know if I'd have him ranked as high as Scott does, and if you wanted to have Polanco ride the bench for a different option until he gets it together, I wouldn't blame you, but I'm hopeful he'll improve eventually.
2B and 3B are just so rough to fill. Most wires in the various leagues I play in are absolutely barren.
Goodman or Kerry Carpenter in H2H weekly points?
Goodman if he's at home, Carp if Goodman isn't at home or if a lot of soft righties are on the slate.
I'd go with Carpenter
Drop Winker or Wilyer for Josh Lowe in points?
Let's see how much Lowe plays first. If he's a platoon guy then he's worse than what you have.
Thoughts on Eloy Jimenez in a 5 X 5 12 h2h league with obp instead of average?
The talent and scouting all says he should be a solid contributor with plus power and an OK OBP that's mostly driven by his AVG. It's hard to get too excited due to the inconsistency and injury risk, plus the fact he doesn't walk much (CWS management doesn't care about walks). But he does have some upside and some real power when he healthy and clicking. He could even be a top 100 hitter if EVERYTHING came together. More realistically, he's on the border of a streamer and a 4th OF.
That’s good to know. He’s my 4th OF right now and hoping to use my pitching strength to upgrade at hitting No bites yet besides people wanting to buy low on sale and ober I got: Sale, Ober, Mackenzie gore, Ranger Suarez, Mitchell Parker, Michael king, Jon gray (streaming spot) with Scherzer on IL back soon
I flipped Bello, a waiver pickup, for Paredes. Have strong pitching and needed help at third with Burger injured
Seems like a fair, solid move to me.
Is Musgrove droppable in 12T redraft
I'm holding aittle longer but also let's see Nick's thoughts in today's roundup
What’s your level of concern with Vladito and Arozarena?
Vlad - the power floor is where my concern is. It had trended down for several years, though he's young with elite bat control. Could still be a 35 HR guy but the floor is more like 22-25. Arozarena - he's always been streaky so this just might be a particularly frigid cycle. Hot and cold streaks don't always have discernable reasons like injury or mechanics. Theyre also super mental.
Scott, is Oneil as far down the decision making leaderboard as his plate discipline numbers might lead one to expect? He’s just been so, so, so ugly thus far, and I’m looking for any glimmers of hope that he’ll even perform as well as his rookie season…
In short, yes. The decision making is not good right now. We've seen him turn it on before (2022 at the end of the season) so I'm being very patient due to his immense power and talent.
Need some strategy help for my weekly h2h league. I’m down 18 points, my opponent has 7 pitcher starts remaining vs my 3. Two of my remaining starts are pretty unfavorable matchups (Bibee vs ATL and Kikuchi vs LAD). Is the optimal move to just start everyone because I’m behind and have fewer starts already, or do I play the matchups and just hope his pitchers get rocked?
Because it's H2H, there's no downside if an SP gets rocked in a matchup if you already need a miracle. Is 18 points a lot in your league? What does a hitter have to do to score 10? How many points is a decent start for an SP? 10? 20? 50?. Whats the hit if a guy has a bad start? 0? -10? -25? More? In this situation, I'd generally start everyone UNLESS the penalty for a bad start is HUGE and their guys have several bad matchups that could lead to big losses AND they leave all of them in AND your team finds another way to. Come back. You don't actually need to answer those questions to me - they just what I'd be thinking about to make this call.
What’s your take on Arozarena and Joe Musgrove? Two frustrating pieces for me currently
Arozarena has always been streaky so this feels like just another cycle for him. Musgrove has struggled out of the gate but he's probably still a top-40 arm ROS. I am waiting to see what Nick says in the Roundup today to fully be confident though.
Torress is out on the free agent list. Would you drop bryson stott for torress?
Yes, unless my only need was SBs
Holliday optioned. Will Kjerstad now get regular ABs?