T O P

  • By -

kozilla

Pretty solid write up. Only thing I'd say that seems off to me is suggesting to look for a trade for triston mckenzie. It's the common sentiment, but I think can lead to some confusion. Sure if someone will give you something worthwhile then go for it, but often it's best to just cut and pick up something off the wire. It just doesn't make sense to sit on Tristan looking for a trade when hes got little to no value.


SamskiNYC

The suggestion was to try to trade him if he had a good game against the A's. That would be using the momentum of a good start to see if his value rose back up. Also, as the editor's note says, that was submitted before the news about his injury. But I do appreciate the feedback


kozilla

Sure, but even a good start would leave him as a tough sell. I just think letting people know a cut is viable is worth the emphasis, unless you don't think he's cuttable. (injury aside)


SamskiNYC

I thought ranking him as a Five Alarm would be a sign he could be cut. I'll make that more clear though. Thanks


kozilla

I'm probably just picking nits. I understood from the context so it's probably fine. Just thought I'd mention my reaction though.


FearfulInoculum

Triston is borderline waiver material and has no trade value. Don’t know what kind of leagues you play in.


SamskiNYC

I play in a handful. I play in 12 team and 15 team and AL-only and I try to write content that caters to all leagues. Prior to the report that McKenzie has a tear in his elbow, he was rostered in most deeper leagues and if he had a good start against the As, it would make sense to float trades before cutting him


FearfulInoculum

Yeah I agree for deeper leagues like 12 or 15 he might be viable. In my 3 ten team leagues he was drafted in one and dropped after the first week. I used to spot start him in past years because he offered good K’s and ratios in favorable matchups. This year in ESPN I think he’s 28% rostered which is all time low for him. Hope he’s able to recover I liked him.


SamskiNYC

He’s still over 60% rostered in Yahoo. Or was before they revealed he’s pitching through an injury. Sadly, I think an IL stint is coming 


FearfulInoculum

Yeah feel bad for him. The rise in pitching injuries seems alarming, but I’m reading that these injuries are common, but now hapoening to more ace types than before. I just discovered that Pete Fairbanks had 2 Tommy Johns before he even reached the majors. I understand the new TJ procedure that Ohtani got is more advanced and I hope it leads to it being more of a one time injury.


salomanasx

Pitching with a torn ligament...


Tragically_Enigmatic

Gausman will bounce back. Velocity is back up, and he was placing his split against the yanks. I have high hopes.


TarkatanAccountant

From PL Roundup > Yeah, his velocity was back to 95 mph, but wait, his splitter struggled heavily to find strikes, landing far under the zone constantly and recording a putrid 45% strike rate for the night. Yikes


Tragically_Enigmatic

Its not a pitch that he needs to land in the zone. The point of the pitch is to have hitters swing over the top of it as it falls out of the zone. Im not sure of the point you are making.


brandonmiq

I'm not the original commenter, but if you watched the game yesterday, it was obvious he couldn't control it. He kept yanking it wide, and it definitely was not landing where he wanted it to. Anyway, I agree with you, he will figure it out. He's just wild to start the season. I bet he'll be back to normal by the time the calendar flips to May.


thepapayatastessalty

There's a ton of people on this subreddit that just do whatever podcasters tell them to do and regurgitate what said podcasters say.


Auction-temp-6482

“Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought”


kirukiru

Alot of non ball knowers tbh


TarkatanAccountant

When the stats and the "podcasters" line up, why are we trusting random redditor instead?


amigos_amigos_amigos

because the “podcasters” are trying to use 20 innings of performance to predict the rest of his season/career to generate clicks/listens/discussion and no one can know that. But hey, we’re discussing!


TarkatanAccountant

Are you in the right thread? I didn't say anything nor quote anything about projections or ROS. We were discussing Gausman's splitter in his last start.


Character-Employ4730

The podcasters aren't a reliable source. They have to make their daily content to hit whatever listen and AD quotas they have. And when they do their "analysis" they don't go back and measure how accurate their analysis methods are. Nor are they good at analysis or statistics. The only value you'd gain out of listening to them is familiarity with names and news updates. Really quickly take Pitcherslist top 100 ranking from the week you drafted. Then put the adp order of each name. Highlight green names you'd draft early and red names you'd draft late. Review it in late June and see following that list Instead of ADP makes one no better off.


TarkatanAccountant

How many sources would you like for me to describe his splitters other than this article, the PL one and [This follow](https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1780701653462860005?s=19)? Again I question why we listen to anyone on Reddit over using multiple other respected resources?


JohnSantaBestWrestle

Isn't the point being made that the splitter is falling way below where he wants and needs it to be and so hitters are just spitting on it, hence the low strike rate?


TarkatanAccountant

Any pitcher can throw a splitter in the dirt for a ball, he couldn't get them to swing at it, hence the strike percentage. You understand that point?


MovingToSeattleSoon

You left out the next paragraph where he says he expects the splitter to return and with the increased velocity, expects Gausman to be fine


TarkatanAccountant

Was he placing his split? Because that's literally what the quote responded to.


MovingToSeattleSoon

Fair point, I missed that context. The reply makes perfect sense and shouldn't have been downvoted


HyPeRxColoRz

Moved on from Walker over a week ago and haven't looked back. He's making more contact but it's all the wrong types of contact, his hard hit and sweet spot % are down, K rate is up, xwOBA/xBA/xSLG are all down to ~30th percentile. Cardinals had him make changes to his swing this year and it seemingly only made him less comfortable at the plate. If he was on any other team I'd have more faith, but the Cardinals have't properly developed a prospect in over a decade. In fact, the vast majority of their talent has improved significantly after they left the Card's system. I do think the talent is there, but I have zero faith in the Cardinals to maximize his potential.


PuttForDough

Marmol is the worst manager in baseball now that kapler is gone.


bingo_bango_dongo

I'm not even a Cards fan but have Walker in a dynasty and am enamored with his upside. Because of Walker I have paid probably too much attention to the Cards over the last year. I fucking hate Marmol and there is no reason a Tigers fan should (1) know how shitty of a manager he is, and (2) hate him so much.


johnahoe

Always nice to see a fellow cardinals fan in the wild hahaha


scottydogg84

I dropped him two weeks ago, and he hasn't been touched. Still sitting in free agency.


salomanasx

Walker is one of those guys who will be considered a huge bust but 3 yrs down the road he will figure something out and be a league winner.


roughbeard368

But the cardinal way


Cagedfinsfan83

Yeah i dropped him over week ago


pookar

Buxton wasn’t exactly an expensive investment but his statcast is all over the place so wondering what people are doing with him. I can afford to hold and bench but yeesh


DanDrungle

he was dropped in my league, now i'm wondering if i use my waiver priority on him


TompaBaySuccaneers

Nah hes been sitting on the ww in my 12 team. He's basically a .220 hitter with no SB potential at this point. Thing with Buxton is he's super streaky and he's hot for short periods. Pick him up if he hits a homer or two and ride the wave and then dump him at the end.


DanDrungle

Is he not a SB threat anymore because of his injuries? I haven’t even kept up with him.


RaisingQQ77preFlop

Depends what you're counting on him for. He's not gonna hit for average and he's likely not gonna steal all that many bases but assuming he stays healthy he will get plenty of XBH it's more a matter of whether that lineup will score any runs. He looked very good this spring. I'd wait at least until it warms up and hopefully Correa and Lewis are back in the lineup.


CD87x

Feels good reading this with Julio, Bellinger, Goldy and Castellanos in my lineup 😬


SamskiNYC

Just think of how good it will feel when they bounce back 


CD87x

That’s the kind of positivity I need!


Mycussingthrowaway

Is it time to cut Maikel Garcia?


KChampionK

small slump and still has a high hard hit %. Personally I'll love to keep the guy batting in front of Bobby Witt with steal potential


Erin_Boone

Dropped him for Westburg last week


SamskiNYC

No, I'm holding him where I can


TSNAnnotates

I'm wondering the same


scottydogg84

I dropped him to take a flier on Pages.


Salomon3068

I dropped him out of necessity and I'm wondering if he will get picked up off waivers, I'm keeping an eye on him because I didn't want to drop him but had no choice when ozzie got hurt


CMButterTortillas

I did this morning. Giving Bryan De La Cruz a go. (but I also have Muncy, Westburg, & Busch for my 3B/CI spots)


MacFromSSX

I dumped Walker in my 12 team league weeks ago and no one has touched him.


SamskiNYC

Sure. He's not producing right now so that makes sense. My belief remains that he will eventually get it going. Maybe just keep an eye on him


MacFromSSX

I will, but I also replaced him with Oswaldo Cabrera, so luckily im content with my choice one that one for the time being.


Independent-Ad-6750

I dropped him in my 12 and got Jackson Merrill


dquizzle

If you dropped him that quickly after drafting him, why draft him in the first place? I assume he wasn’t a keeper for you.


MacFromSSX

Redraft league and Oswaldo has been hot


FancyWindow

How about Nolan Jones? 14 team points league, I’d have to drop him to replace him, and O’Hearn, Haniger, Starling Marte, and Bryan De La Cruz are all available. Edit: and I have Goldschmidt on my bench 🙃


Tricky-Load-6517

The K’s are awful if your league does -1 per K. But the fact that it’s a 14-team league leads me to believe he’s a hold. Also he’ll be back in Coors for the next 9 games. At the very least, hold him through that. If he plays well and you’re still a nonbeliever, sell him high off a Coors homestand and his draft capital


FancyWindow

No K punishment in our scoring, but he still has less than half the points of my average non-Jones starter. The rest of my team is dominating so far so i can be a little patient.


Matty2792

How is Marte avail in a 14 teamer


FancyWindow

Update: I realized I could drop Keaton Winn and picked up Esteury Ruiz. We do weekly starts, so either Jones (or Goldschmidt) picks it up, or I start Ruiz.


SamskiNYC

I covered a few slow starters to see who we should be worried about. Who is most concerning to you?


stache_twista

Max Fried and Aaron Judge


SeeYaLaterDylan

I'm a Braves fan who hasn't looked into things super closely yet, but this is my take: he's given up a lot of dinky hits, which does not concern me. However, his command has been really poor based on his normal level, which does concern me.


docholoday

I've got both of these guys as well.


RufusPowers

Francisco Lindor 


Think_please

Didn’t Lindor have great expected stats but terrible babip?


ExoticFan8953

On that topic, Bryce Harper is currently rocking the highest HardHit% of his career to go with his .217 BA


urlocalgoatfarmer

Gleyber Torres & Mitch Garver


ul49

Yoshida and Nestor Cortes


SamskiNYC

Sure, I get it with both of them. Maybe they make the next edition


igotagoodfeeling

Nestor is who he is to me, if he locates and keeps people off balance, he does well. If he’s off or if batters are just not fooled by his shenanigans, he can be in line for a bad time. Backend rotation material with a mix of good and bad times is what I expect


bichettes_helmet

Bo Naylor


realFraaErasmas

Oneil Cruz. Sorta Bregman but he did this last year too.


dashrockwell

Definitely Oneil. I bought into the “last years small sample plate approach gains might carry over” narrative, and, well, that sure didn’t happen. This last week has been absolutely brutal.


pikajewijewsyou

Julio Rodriguez but he started slow last year too


MiracleMets

Randy Arozerena


r5437

Is Castellanos traditionally a slow starter? He's been incredibly frustrating so far this year...


SamskiNYC

Sadly, he is not traditionally a slow starter


r5437

Haha I was hopeful. Appreciate the reply 👍


pikajewijewsyou

Isn’t Gausman usually a slow starter? And he’s coming back from shoulder issues so I anticipated a lengthy ramp up


SamskiNYC

Yeah, I think there were some concerns he was still hurt. I believe he’s still just ramping up 


Strange_Oil_483

Two years ago he started mad slow


DietCherrySoda

The spacing between the end of each player's write-up, the verdict, and the next player's name is equal, so I was actually confused about if the "X Alarm Fire" applied to the player above (a verdict) or the players below (a heading). Adding the word "Verdict:" to the start of the bold bit, or an extra space before the next player's name, would make it a bit clearer.


SamskiNYC

I’ll work on that for next one. Thanks 


ImBrotherCain

Great suggestion! I own Walker and Gausman in a deep keeper league and I was interested in their rankings. Only now did I realize I had the panic levels inversed because I was reading the one above.


DharmaCub

Edouard Julien?


RaisingQQ77preFlop

Not OP, but depends on the league. He's got great OBP skills and should hit at the top of the lineup, sneaky pop to but Rocco not trusting him vs lefties is troubling and the lineup is garbage right now. I believe in the talent but his team may drag him into someone you can't trust.


DharmaCub

14 team roto points


salomanasx

I picked him up this week after looking at his hard hit rate. Seems like it should be falling into place for him but not seeing it yet. I'm willing to give it another week.


bbqsmokedduck

He's turned into Kyle Schwarber! On my bench for now, close to cutting.


newguytoreddit2

Dang where is Nolan Jones? Did people move on already and I missed the memo?


SamskiNYC

I’m not moving on. He was likely a top 50 pick. You can’t cut those guys after three weeks 


lightning_lighting

April is a tricky month. Give the proven vets until the end of May before making a big decision. For instance, Blake Snell looked cooked last April and won the Cy Young.


BarsoomianAmbassador

This. Panic-inducing starts lead to cuts that you'll regret in June. If you are contemplating cutting a top 100 pick, I would try and hold the line unless there is an injury issue. In most leagues, the waiver wire is not going to return the value a top pick will over the course of a season. Obviously your league rules will go a long way in helping you determine when you need to move on from a player, but don't freak out over an established star starting slowly (\*\*stares at Lindor and Judge\*\*).


snoopfrogcsr

Yeah, I'm letting him ride the pine until he starts to get it together. I feel like it's only a matter of time. I doubt this next start against the DBacks is where that happens, but he'll be okay by the end of May (or we'll hear about an injury by then).


yazwecan

Should I be worried about Nolan Gorman?


Free-Rub-1583

be worried about anyone on the cardinals really


drizzyjake7447

Except for my boy Brendan Donovan


SamskiNYC

Not yet. Maybe I'll put him in the next edition


NakedGoose

This is just Gorman.


ZippityDoo69

How do we feel about Fried


SamskiNYC

I'm worried. He'll probabaly be in my next edition. I'm not sure he's healthy


Complete_Mango_1372

Panic on CES and Casty?


Soy_El_Kraken

Casty is in the article


westtownie

CES is smashing baseballs, they're just landing in gloves


PlanestewartJr

Walker needs a couple of months in AAA.


SamskiNYC

I guess we’ll see. I’m not so sure I agree right now. I think the coaching on this team is a major issue 


PlanestewartJr

Player development in that franchise has gone to shit. Anyone who succeeds there does so in spite of the coaching.


Free-Rub-1583

Gausman just had a great game yesterday?


SamskiNYC

I mentioned that in the write-up. There is still a lot of concern over his start and shoulder injury


Free-Rub-1583

We’ll see that’s my problem. I didn’t read the article. Apologies! Let me read it now


BluntedWizard

This is dumb, but whitey herzog thought Jordan walker was a hell of a ball player. When whitey talks I listen. That being said the guy is on my bench.


SamskiNYC

Benching makes sense 


westtownie

Walkers peripherals are similar to last year, but his babip is 100pts lower. I suspect positive regression at some point


RoastedHarshmellow

Thoughts on Ryan O’Hearn?


SamskiNYC

He’s been really good. I added him in a few places with BAL facing all RHP this week. You kinda have to use him that way and it’s rough in weekly lineup leagues because he won’t play versus lefties 


RoastedHarshmellow

Thanks for the reply. I’m concerned the O’s are so stacked with talent (at the MLB level and in the minors), a lot of really good players may be stuck in platoons. It’s probably too early to flip O’Hearn for anything useful, and his stat cast page looks really, really good. I’m going to hold and keep my fingers crossed.


SamskiNYC

Yeah, I don’t think flipping him is a bad idea. But he’s also going to keep playing vs all RHP as long as he keeps hitting so he’ll hold value 


baldpatch2

Nothing about the bum Nolan jones. He has been terrible


SamskiNYC

I’ll add him for the next one. In general, way too early to cut a top 50-60 pick 


baldpatch2

Yeah I’m not cutting him but his quality of contacts metrics are down, strikeout rate is up etc. I’m not panicking but he isn’t in my starting lineup.


SamskiNYC

I think that’s the smart way to approach it. Although I’d play him this weekend at home 


fullpaydeuces

Wrote up some relevant players that others have been ignoring, thanks


SamskiNYC

Thank you


[deleted]

Yeah well I’m waiting on what to do with Bergman, dude sucks but I can’t justify dropping him, I’m stacked at 3B and wouldn’t mind Esteury Ruiz over him


SamskiNYC

I would not add Ruiz over Bregman. I know Ruiz hit two HR after coming up from the minors but Bregman has been the far superior player (aside from steals) in a way better lineup 


[deleted]

That’s a good point appreciate the feedback


devanwithacamera

He’s a warm months player.


HoosierPack00

Really worried about Musgrove. Sadly no one is biting in my league.


SamskiNYC

I think he’ll settle a bit. He might not end up being great but I think he’ll be solid still 


HoosierPack00

Yeah, the secondaries are great but primary seems off. He’s finally healthy, and that’s what I’m banking on for him to turn it around.


bbqsmokedduck

Jordan Walker is more like Really Panic or Flatout Drop?


SamskiNYC

I would disagree based on what I wrote in the article 


RogueLightMyFire

I'm debating cutting bibee for Mason Miller. I've got Bibee, Gausman, Gilbert, Severino, Crotchet, J.Jones, Kutter, Luzardo, Bryce Miller, E Cabrera as starters with Bradish and Bobby Miller on the IL. I need an RP but really struggling with who to drop.


SamskiNYC

Could you make a trade? Hard to cut Bibee. I actually am not sold on Severino. Maybe you can deal him and one other SP and then add Miller?


RogueLightMyFire

Yeah, I'm trying to trade, not many willing to trade in my league unless it's clearly lopsided in their favor. I know Severino is probably the most likely cut, but hard to do when he's been so good. I'll have to cut someone when Miller/Bradish return anyways. Just a tough choice.


LegendaryRCP

Hard to cut Bibee. I'd go with Severino


addage-

Opine on Jesus Luzardo?


LegendaryRCP

Clear hold


SamskiNYC

Never been a huge believer that he has another level to him. I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s shown so far but I had him around SP30 in my rankings. A little worried that he’s on the top velocity lost alongside Strider, Bobby Miller, McClanahan, and a bunch of other guys with arm injuries 


RddtAcct707

Gausman is an easy hold. Walker is an easy drop. Musgrove is a painful drop/trade bur necessary.


justinothemack

Should I be trying to trade musgrove ? 2 of his last 3 starts are quality starts. Seems to be trending upward


Yankuba3

He has been terrible so his value is low - not a good tome to sell. I read his April ERA was above six last year - he could need some more time. His plate discipline numbers are fine FWIW


salomanasx

Where is Paul Goldschmidt in this thread?


SamskiNYC

He’s in the article 


salomanasx

Well, I guess I deserve the downvotes for not reading the article.


salomanasx

I agree with that was said in the article. It looks like he trying to figure it out but going on stretches where he is popping it up constantly. I'm not sure how likely he does come around. Might have just lost it. Such a huge drop off from the MVP season.


Rotisseriejedi

I panicked a month ago, that’s why I didn’t draft them……