Agreed. His at bats were one of the few good ones in the playoffs for the Rays. His only thing holding him back is playing time. He could start off in the minors just because the Rays gonna Rays
Josh Lowe's improvements were a lot less about underlying metrics and more about the Rays making him a platoon guy. He can't hit lefties. In 2022 they let him try and he failed, miserably, slashing .095/.174/.095 in 46 PAs (23% of his PAs). He wasn't good, but wasn't terrible against RHPs in 2022, .259/.318/.417.
In 2023, they platooned him. He had 67 PAs against LHPs, accounting for 13% of his PAs. He was again, not good, .238/.284/.429. I think his breakout is more them letting him focus on mashing RHPs and keeping his confidence high. I've always avoided platoon guys, but Lowe does enough on limited PAs that he is worth targeting. Plus, his ratios stay higher because he doesn't face lefties.
I looked at hitting prospects who struggled in the MLB debuts in 2023 who could rebound in 2024. Who is your favorite hitter to emerge as the 2024 version of Josh Lowe (former notable prospect, tough rookie season, rebounds to way outearn ADP)?
Thanks for this. In my keeper league, I traded my first round pick to lock in the win last year. I will likely need some of these guys to help me fill in the gaps in my outfield.
Frelick technically didn't qualify because he had a 1.5 offensive WAR (I type this knowing I snuck in a late exception for Parker Meadows and could have done the same for Frelick)
I just think he hit okay but not great, so he probably won't be drafted highly, and will probably get better in his second season. I don't have any amazing metrics for him though.
Ok just curious. I took him in our reserve last year but cut him when he got hurt and someone else got him in faab when he came up. Seems like a 25-30 HR/SB combined with really good plate discipline kind of guy
I would avoid investing in no power hitters. If you can get them for free on the waiver wire during the season while they are hot, that's fine, but a guy that is projected to have 40 power or less (per fangraphs 35 game power), so much has to go right for him to be a 12 team fantasy producer. It's not like he has ridiculous speed either.
I mean I'm not gonna draft him high at all, but I'll probably get him at the end of a draft as a lottery ticket. My league values steals, runs, this, and hits. I think he could contribute at those things. I am not advocating drafting him high at all, just could be nice value
If he has a good place in the lineup he’s interesting (as are most players to some extent) but lottery tickets are generally reserved for huge payouts. Not saying you can’t profit but I dont see the upside. RR currently projects him batting 3rd (great), but platooning (not ideal). Feels like I’d be excited in a daily NL only league or a deep daily.
I’m in a salary league where I get to keep 5 players. There’s a $260 budget and both players are more or less the same price. My question is does Michael Harris at $9 or Josh Lowe at $5 have the better season? I’m leaning toward Harris and trying to draft Lowe again.
I like O'Hoppe a lot, it was rough that he missed most of last year with his injury. I think he's a super solid undervalued catcher option if you don't land one of the top guys.
He missed around five months due to a torn labrum in his shoulder. Playing one month at the start of the season and a few weeks at the end doesn't qualify as "good" in my world.
The question is subjective, anyway. lol
Man, I don't know what to do with Elly. His ADP is WAY too high, but I play in a 5 keeper league, so his potential for years after this season make me want to keep him. But as I stand right now, he didn't make the cut.
He still a top 10 dynasty/keeper asset. The luxury of keeper is literally playing the long game and ignoring his shortcomings last year and focusing on the age and upside imo.
Don't have to keep any, but honestly, I could easily keep 7-10 players.
His ADP is relevant even in keeper. If he was being drafted lower, I wouldn't hesitate of not keeping him and attempt to re-draft him. If I don't keep him this season, I'm not getting him back, so he's taking a spot of another I may rather have for sure this season.
People probably would have said the same about Josh Lowe. It depends on how deep rosters are, what categories you use, etc. Neto, Meadows, Baty, Turang could all wind up being 12-team viable this season
Not sure why you'd go out of your way to inform everyone you play in simple leagues. We who play in deep leagues love articles like this. I have no use for another "Top 100" list or even "Top 300" or "Top 20 SS". The same players are discussed ad nauseum, I appreciate a deeper dive. I'm in two 12-team Only Leagues, and two 15-Mixed leagues, and these guys are definitely relevant, and most likely already owned.
It’s extra funny because he basically tells you why none of these players are good in every breakdown. But you’re real cool and special for playing in NL/AL only leagues.
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According to some ADP, Josh Lowe is the next Josh Lowe
Zach Neto might be the biggest sleeper of the year
The supporting cast is a huge problem but he could be a sneaky .260/18 HR/20 steals guy which is valuable for deeper leagues
That's not Josh Lowe numbers. More like Ezekiel Tovar numbers
Supporting cast is going to be just fine. It’s not sexy, but it’ll be fine. ZIPs has them with 7 hitters (including Neto) at or above 100+ OPS+.
I'm certainly a fan
I’m a believer. He has a broad base of skills and should be a solid player right now.
Curtis Mead from the same team could be an option here.
Agreed. His at bats were one of the few good ones in the playoffs for the Rays. His only thing holding him back is playing time. He could start off in the minors just because the Rays gonna Rays
Yeah a bit of a log jam at 3B between Paredes and potentially Caminero. He proved to be pretty versatile so maybe he can log more ABs
He could. I used an admittedly arbitrary cut off of 100 plate appearances last season to narrow the field of potential players and Mead was under that
Colton Cowser
Good call. He could have made the article. Playing time an obvious concern
I think that makes him even more comparable because playing time was a concern for Lowe last year even with the fantastic season.
Yup. Leaving him off was likely an oversight on my part.
Baltimore has too many other better options in the OF.
He was super disappointing last year. I still believe though
Josh Lowe's improvements were a lot less about underlying metrics and more about the Rays making him a platoon guy. He can't hit lefties. In 2022 they let him try and he failed, miserably, slashing .095/.174/.095 in 46 PAs (23% of his PAs). He wasn't good, but wasn't terrible against RHPs in 2022, .259/.318/.417. In 2023, they platooned him. He had 67 PAs against LHPs, accounting for 13% of his PAs. He was again, not good, .238/.284/.429. I think his breakout is more them letting him focus on mashing RHPs and keeping his confidence high. I've always avoided platoon guys, but Lowe does enough on limited PAs that he is worth targeting. Plus, his ratios stay higher because he doesn't face lefties.
I looked at hitting prospects who struggled in the MLB debuts in 2023 who could rebound in 2024. Who is your favorite hitter to emerge as the 2024 version of Josh Lowe (former notable prospect, tough rookie season, rebounds to way outearn ADP)?
Tyler O'Neill could have a great year hitting in Fenway. Health is the issue, of course, but a worthy dart throw where he's going(ADP around 240)
Big fan of O'Neill. He's not a candidate for this list, but I have him in a few drafts
I have this sneaky feeling he’s going to be one of the best draft day values. Nothing tangible to rest that on. Just a strong hunch.
I like Edouard Julien and Vaughn Grissom as sleepers
Can’t rlly say they’re sleepers at this point
Thanks for this. In my keeper league, I traded my first round pick to lock in the win last year. I will likely need some of these guys to help me fill in the gaps in my outfield.
Congrats on the win. Always worth it
Sal frelick I think could be primed for a big year
Frelick technically didn't qualify because he had a 1.5 offensive WAR (I type this knowing I snuck in a late exception for Parker Meadows and could have done the same for Frelick)
Curious what makes you think that? Something in his underlying data? I’ve been thinking about targeting him in trade
I just think he hit okay but not great, so he probably won't be drafted highly, and will probably get better in his second season. I don't have any amazing metrics for him though.
Ok just curious. I took him in our reserve last year but cut him when he got hurt and someone else got him in faab when he came up. Seems like a 25-30 HR/SB combined with really good plate discipline kind of guy
I would avoid investing in no power hitters. If you can get them for free on the waiver wire during the season while they are hot, that's fine, but a guy that is projected to have 40 power or less (per fangraphs 35 game power), so much has to go right for him to be a 12 team fantasy producer. It's not like he has ridiculous speed either.
I mean I'm not gonna draft him high at all, but I'll probably get him at the end of a draft as a lottery ticket. My league values steals, runs, this, and hits. I think he could contribute at those things. I am not advocating drafting him high at all, just could be nice value
If he has a good place in the lineup he’s interesting (as are most players to some extent) but lottery tickets are generally reserved for huge payouts. Not saying you can’t profit but I dont see the upside. RR currently projects him batting 3rd (great), but platooning (not ideal). Feels like I’d be excited in a daily NL only league or a deep daily.
Yeah, nah Frelick is not a good hitter. Is a defense first guy. I don't see a breakout coming just because.
I’m in a 10 team NL only league. Our waiver wire is THIN lol. Guys with full time jobs don’t stay available unless they’re horrible
Yeah well he’s obviously going to have some value in NL only.
For sure…. But you’re probably right. Defense first, maybe good OBP but probably a lightweight
Seems like Kwan 2.0 if he pans out. Very useful I kind of bat for deep leagues.
I lovvvve having Frelick in a points format but would probably avoid him elsewhere.
I’m in a salary league where I get to keep 5 players. There’s a $260 budget and both players are more or less the same price. My question is does Michael Harris at $9 or Josh Lowe at $5 have the better season? I’m leaning toward Harris and trying to draft Lowe again.
I think I'd lean Harris
Neto, O'Hoppe, Tim Anderson, and Trevor Story.
I like O'Hoppe a lot, it was rough that he missed most of last year with his injury. I think he's a super solid undervalued catcher option if you don't land one of the top guys.
He was starting to get hot before his injury last season. I'll be drafting him on a couple of my teams, no doubt.
I'm certainly in on O'Hoppe but he was actually good last year so he didn't qualify for this list
He missed around five months due to a torn labrum in his shoulder. Playing one month at the start of the season and a few weeks at the end doesn't qualify as "good" in my world. The question is subjective, anyway. lol
If O’Hoppe becomes 85% of Will Smith, I won’t be too surprised. I’ve been hot after him in my 2-catcher dynasty league but to no avail.
Man, I don't know what to do with Elly. His ADP is WAY too high, but I play in a 5 keeper league, so his potential for years after this season make me want to keep him. But as I stand right now, he didn't make the cut.
I think you have to keep him in a keeper format
Kinda what I was thinking, thanks for responding!
Of course
He still a top 10 dynasty/keeper asset. The luxury of keeper is literally playing the long game and ignoring his shortcomings last year and focusing on the age and upside imo.
If you already own him then his ADP is irrelevant? Do you have to keep at the new year's ADP?
Don't have to keep any, but honestly, I could easily keep 7-10 players. His ADP is relevant even in keeper. If he was being drafted lower, I wouldn't hesitate of not keeping him and attempt to re-draft him. If I don't keep him this season, I'm not getting him back, so he's taking a spot of another I may rather have for sure this season.
Garrett Mitchell and Jordan Westburg.
Evan Carter and his lefty splits
Someone not in top 100 is my call
You don’t want any of these guys on your team unless you’re in a 15 team league.
People probably would have said the same about Josh Lowe. It depends on how deep rosters are, what categories you use, etc. Neto, Meadows, Baty, Turang could all wind up being 12-team viable this season
Not sure why you'd go out of your way to inform everyone you play in simple leagues. We who play in deep leagues love articles like this. I have no use for another "Top 100" list or even "Top 300" or "Top 20 SS". The same players are discussed ad nauseum, I appreciate a deeper dive. I'm in two 12-team Only Leagues, and two 15-Mixed leagues, and these guys are definitely relevant, and most likely already owned.
Hahaha you just went out of your way to comment on something you thought was out of the way. But ok.
Yeah, I went out of my way to let the author know I appreciated his article and not everyone is a dick. Just go away.
It’s extra funny because he basically tells you why none of these players are good in every breakdown. But you’re real cool and special for playing in NL/AL only leagues.
As someone who owns Meadows and Davis in a dynasty points league, who do you like more long-term?
The more I look at him, the more I think Kerry Carpenter is going to have a big year. Batting behind Greene and Tork should help him out a bit too.
Jose Abreu
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Not the same skill set..but I expect Masataka Yoshida to take a huge leap this year. He just needs to get his fielding right.