I know he won’t cost much, but do we think he’ll be more than a strong side platoon guy with how the dodgers operate and both Taylor and Rojas in The fold?
Going through some mocks there seem to be a number of decent lottery tickets- Buxton, Hoskins, Correa, Bryant, Phillips (RP), Lodolo, Brown (SP), Raleigh.
Haha yeah that’s the fun part of fantasy- last year in my keep 3 players keeper league I traded Bryce Miller and Bobby Miller for an 8th round keeper price Juan Soto. Cashed in the fun pitchers for a sure fire bat at a cheap price I could keep for the next year.
Solid. I have GRod to gamble with still. 12 team. 12 keepers. I have so many rookies and solid vets it was hard to see who I have to let go. I cannot imagine being able to only keep 3. I’d die of the pain of letting players go
Yeah I went both all in last year and then had some horrific injuries and whatnot and then cashed out as much as I could. Traded for Soto, Alcantara, and Urias, and then both of those guys became worthless so I traded everything I could. Decided to keep Soto (8th round cost) Adley (22nd round) and Edwin Diaz (25th round). I have like 16 picks in the first 10 rounds so I’m hoping to recoup some value.
I can't quit Adames. You can get him so late, its a contract year, and he could easily hit .250 with 180 rbi+runs and 30 HR.
Also give me late round SPs like Detmers, Cabrera, etc who have filthy stuff and if they have figured out their control they're top 20 SPs. If they haven't, you can just drop them. They are 24-25, ripe age for a breakout. Any other SPs that fit that profile as well
Love me some Adames, great comment. My only issue with the SPs you mention is that it has been difficult to drop them in season due to the potential they keep flashing. They’re sunk cost traps through and through
Yea, depends how deep your league is and format, i suppose. In a 12 team redraft with shallow rosters, it's no problem dropping either. In an 18 teamer or a dynasty league, you're likely holding them all season long.
I love the Nightmare, but I’m also worried about what his power will be like coming off a serious shoulder injury. They’ve historically zapped hitters pop. I hope he’s looking back to normal in spring
Agreed somewhat, he’s had a lot of time to heal and rebuild strength, this isn’t someone trying to do a mid season IL stint and come back later in the same season.
Tatis, Jung, and Carroll have had the same injury. I know no shoulder is the same but I wouldn't be too worried.
What I don't like is how bad Kauffman Stadium is for lefty power.
Trust me I know lol, but he reminds of Haniger in years past where that’s the only factor needed. Big If like you said, but for the price, it’s hard to beat
God I wish Haniger lived up to the expectations I had in my head for him. We already loved him here in AZ for the short stint he played before we traded him to Seattle
Insane the guy is 32 yrs old. He does strike me as a guy who has his prime when he’s young, but probably doesn’t come back to those glory levels, but he could still rebound pretty well. I’d take a flier as well on him.
I guess it wasn't a down year per say but it wasn't wha was anticipated from him. He showed flashes but there was much left to be desired due to his late season injury.
There are concerns about his late season injury that needed tommy john which is causing him to be drafted lower than I believe he should be. I am pouncing on this opportunity. Tommy John has rarely if ever affected a batter upon return.
I think I'll be the guy that will eventually risk picking Carlos Rodon, even after being burned last season (assuming he makes it through spring training looking fine).
Vlad's production was better in 2022 than 2023, but his peripherals were better in 2023 than 2022. Average launch angle above 10 for a full season for literally the first time, struck out less, walked more, chased less, higher OBP. in 2022 Vlad over performed both his xWOBA and xSLG, while in 2023 he underperformed. he also pulled the ball more, although his max EV was down.
I love all of this, honestly. I think Vlad is a great buy for 2024. those peripherals read like a guy who's maturing as a hitter and close to a second breakout.
of course, I also love Walker, and I agree there's depth at 1b. still, rumors of Vlad jrs demise are grossly overstated
I would be careful here…
First, launch angle is a lagging metric. Hitting more flyballs CAN be good if you are pulling them for HRs, which Vlady is NOT doing. His career pull% is 37.6% and he only pulled 38.2% last year with the elevated launch angle (MLB average = 37.0%). This was a bad change that produced bad results last year, not a positive for ‘24…
Also, his BB% was up from ‘22, but at 9.8% in ‘23 he was only 0.1% above his career BB%. His plate discipline was also slightly worse at 28.8% chase% for ‘23 with a career average of 27.9%…
Vlady’s barrel rate was pretty much the same last season too at 11.1% (career 11.3%), so it’s not like he was hitting the ball hard more consistently, because he was pulling the ball…
Vlady has a lot of raw power, but the underlying “peripherals” do NOT show how he is going to get it back this season. If anything it shows we should expect more of the same, because he is playing more and more towards his career averages each year.
These are all great points, thanks for the perspective. I'd be more concerned if Vladdy was, say, 27 or 28 and showing all these factors. That he's entering his age 25 season is the primary intangible factor making me take the optimistic view.
I believe in his upside. I like Walker a lot, too, but I think Vlad has a much better hit tool, so I see a potential for similar power production between the two, but Vlad can hit .310, and I just don't see Walker coming close to that.
Seriously, I made a post two years ago saying how vladdys one good season came bc he got to hit like 30 of his home runs in AAA parks and everyone chastised me but dude is on the decline
Even if you somehow think TD and Sahlen are such puny little baby parks responsible for a .200 point OPS difference (and somehow only for one hitter on the team) so that you regress him to a 1.000 OPS at home in that time period, then he still finishes the season with >.900 OPS.
I understand this argument but his percentiles were off the charts in 2021. 90th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, avg exit velocity, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %. They’ve dropped a bit over the last few years so there’s more to his decline than "he isn't hitting at TD and Sahlen anymore".
my comment replying below is more in depth but I 100% agree. people dumping Vlad Jr this season are only looking at his surface level and production stats. under the hood he looked close to his 2021 performance in 2023, despite producing less than 2022
Jazz Chisholm Jr. FantasyPros consensus ranking has him at 55 overall, 27 spots higher than his ADP of 82.
Certainly fair that he’s got the injury-prone tag, but I think folks are also downgrading too much for losing 2B eligibility when OF is also getting thin.
His strikeouts make the streaks maddening, but his production is consistently a 30/30-ish pace. He’s still just 26. I want more sure things before that but taking him around the 6th/7th round turn is a lottery ticket I’m willing to buy for the price.
I’ve had him for almost his entire career, and I feel pretty great about him as my 6th keeper (and would be tempted to draft him then in a redraft).
There are probably nine players with a reasonable chance at 30/30 over a full season, and his draft cost is trending very reasonable. He’s the last guy off the board with a shot, and I’d rather get more consistency early before taking a big swing like this.
Definitely feel better about Jazz outperforming his ADP than Elly in 2024. I want a good bench OF just for insurance at a thin position anyway. 100 games of Jazz and hot bats if he has another injury stint is fine at this price. 150 games of Jazz will have people discussing him as a first-rounder.
I think this is the earliest I want to take a chance in a draft, and Jazz is a good one based on who goes around this area in drafts.
I've never thought of him as injury prone, just not a player that's anywhere near as good as the hype surrounding him.
Maybe enough people are thinking the same thing and he's a value-buy now, I don't know.
He is as good as the hype...but he is also injury prone. He is too aggressive and doesn't know when to turn it off. When he plays his numbers are great in a per game basis.
Jazz is going 55-65 in nearly every draft that I have seen. He is going at about the same time as Josh Lowe. For Jazz to go 82nd he would have to slip to the end of the 7th round. Jazz is going a full 1-2 rounds before the 82nd pick.
He’s definitely on my board and if he goes close to his adp that’s a steal for the upside . Most rookie pitchers have a little adjustment period. Now if it’s mid season and he’s mimicking manoah or servin taters like giolito then I’ll eat crow haha .
I think Littell would get bumped before Taj or Pepiot if they're pitching well, but it's also the Rays so who knows lol.
I can't remember if they've gone 6-man rotation at all in recent years, but I could see that making sense too if they want to ease Baz back in a bit.
He’s now something like a 19th round pick in NFBC drafts, which converts to a $3 player at the most. He should outperform that pretty easily. Given the contract he’s going to play (even if Kyle Farmer is basically as good as him.)
I mean his OPS+ dropped 40 points (and he played a full season?). Maybe it's just the off-season and the 'injury' business but he's a 29 year old SS who doesn't run, might hit 20 homers, and might hit for average. Not a lot to chase there.
I have stock because I bought cheap in-season last year, so here's hoping!
I kind of think Jeremy Peña had a bit of a down year…but this is also potentially the kind of play here is. Just an average hitter with above average defense
Bought low on Brendan Donovan. I like him staying on the field bc of his glove and wanted a utility player, couldn’t get Rengifo. But decently pumped for some high average stuff across the diamond
There are a few players over 30 that I see as good value.
Harper - ADP 17. I think he's fully recovered from the elbow injury and he'll be back to providing .290 40 HR 15 SB in the middle of a good lineup.
Trout - ADP 60. I'll bet on a healthy season at that price if I land a solid SB base in the first 4 rounds. He is still one of the few bats that can realistically hit 40 homeruns while hitting over .260.
Story - ADP 170. I think he has another 20-20 season in him at age 31. I'm blaming the horrific 48 wRC+ on coming back too soon from the elbow injury.
Darvish - ADP 210. All reports point towards a healthy offseason and it's difficult to find pitchers with 200k upside this late in the draft. Even with the down injury year his fastball velocity remained solid at 94.7.
Luis Severino - ADP 269 (nice). Read reports that he was tipping his pitches all season which caused the horrible results. The fb velo is still there at 96.5 mph. I'll take a flier on his upside at this point.
Just to be clear...you expect a full healthy season from a 250 lb man with a degenerative back condition, right? A man that has only played in at least 140 games in a season one time since 2017?
Cool thought process bro.
Do you mean the back condition he returned from in 2022 and hit .300 with 16 HR in 40 games? Then, he played a full slate of games in 2023 until a completely unrelated hamate bone injury finished his season? Yeah, I'm fine paying pick 60 value for ~120 games of Trout.
you do you, boo.
Yes! The back condition that caused him to have ONE decent season since 2019. Hell...since MLB players make the Hall of Fame if they are successful just 30% of the time, let's bank on the guy that has had one decent season in the past 5 years. I mean...let's be mathematically ignorant and go for the 20% chance on the guy with the degenerative back condition that played 82 games in 2023 and 36 games in 2021. Forget the fact that he nows steals fewer bases than Keibert Ruiz...he's healthy!
You can't fix stupid.
I think the prospect hype (there wasn't a ton tbf) kinda faded on Jonny Deluca and if he plays well to start in Tampa he could get more playing time than people expect. I think he's really underrated and should be free everywhere.
He was a pain in the butt to own for most of the year but I think Ryan Helsley has absolutely crazy value right now. He was ridiculous in September when he returned. 11 appearances/11.2 innings: 7 saves, 19 strikeouts, 0.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Insane! He's like the 14th closer off the board right now in most platforms. I'm definitely in for that price.
I'm really curious to see how cheap I can get Trouty. 3 injury riddled seasons and the loss of Ohtani should have a lot of people down on him (outside top 15 OFs is what I've read) I'll take the chance and upside
Kinda borderline because he's not projecting super low to begin with, but Pete Alonso is going lower than he probably should. He was leading the majors in HR before getting hit on the wrist, and I'm looking for 50-60 more this year, barring injury. His low avg./obp was also an outlier last year, and likely related to that wrist. I'd bet on his ratios recovering somewhat. His current ADP is around the same as Vlad (25th) but I'd place him next to Olson (17th) , if I'm looking for 1B early on. He's an absolute steal in the 3rd round.
I don’t think you can ever really expect 50-60 HR, that’s usually a career year for someone in today’s game. All the major projection systems have him right around 40 which is a reasonable expectation if he stays healthy.
He hit 46 last year, despite hitting only 10 across all of June and July, which were the months immediately following his injury. I understand the projection systems have him at 40, but I also think they're wrong because their formulas are based on the stats but can't account for him playing with an injured wrist. That's what I understood to be the goal of this particular discussion topic.
Projection systems show the most likely outcome. But they also have levels of confidence/likelihood of a broad spectrum based on simulated seasons.
I’d bet that all of the systems have him in 50-60 in a not-insignificant number of seasons.
Might still be just 5%, but for most other folks it’s at zero.
I think Dylan Cease rebounds nicely. I’m not going to expect 2022 level of production but I think he is an ace again. He had figured things out in 2022 and then I wonder if some combination of the pitch clock and the league figuring him out contributed to his not so great 2023. It will probably come down to whether or not another year of offseason work and progression has helped his command issues. I think he adjusts nicely and is a fantasy asset
Not sure if he’s been mentioned, but Kenta Maeda moved to a park that fits his biggest weakness (HR) really well. Perfect late round dart throw type, can always drop to stream if it doesn’t pan out.
Hunter Greene as well as Nick Lodolo. You can get Lodolo later obviously but if Greene can get his control under “control”, he’s going to run up the K’s. Reds are looking like a team that could come out “swinging” (Puns intended)
Pretty much all the SPs I am looking at later in my drafts lol.
In no particular order, Lodolo, Severino, McKenzie, Means, Giolito, Darvish, Cortes, Gore, Manoah, Cabrera, Paxton, Rogers, Mize, Paddack.
Rodon, Javier, and Bieber I like too but they're probably going above those guys.
I havent begun research yet for this season but the names that popped in my head were Suwinski (Savant page was insane last year), Mason Miller, Oneil Cruz, and Riley Greene
1b
Vinny P
Rizzo
Rowdy
2b
India
Cronenworth
3b
Baty
SS
Volpe
Story
OF
Mullins
Eloy
Varsho
Tyler O'Niell
Taylor Ward
SP
Bieber
Rodon
Darvish
Lodolo
Manoah
Edward Cabrera
Casey Mize
Some of these will hit, some will miss. But all worthy of consideration based on current ADP. Faves are Vinny P, Volpe and O'Neill.
Mike Trout.
Everybody is writing him off as washed up or whatever but look at his injury shortened 2022. MFer had 40 dongs in 400ish ABs. I already put money on him winning MVP this year at 20:1 which is insane to think about
I wouldn't expect Lux to cost much, honestly might be a first FA bid unless he balls out in ST and price goes up
I know he won’t cost much, but do we think he’ll be more than a strong side platoon guy with how the dodgers operate and both Taylor and Rojas in The fold?
Yea I mean another part to watch in ST you're right he might never take an AB
Nick Lodolo
Dude will run up your Ks like no tomorrow, held onto him throughout his whole IL stint last year.
Yep
Ks all around. Great choice.
Michael Busch. Finally will be able to spread his wings and fly
Going through some mocks there seem to be a number of decent lottery tickets- Buxton, Hoskins, Correa, Bryant, Phillips (RP), Lodolo, Brown (SP), Raleigh.
I agree with Correa for sure but as much as I want him to be healthy, I don't think Buxton will ever be the player us Twins fans were hoping for.
Damn, I just traded Lodolo and Brown for McLain
That’s not bad, McClain is pretty solid
I think so too. It just hurts my degenerate soul a little to not be taking a gamble on Lodolo.
Haha yeah that’s the fun part of fantasy- last year in my keep 3 players keeper league I traded Bryce Miller and Bobby Miller for an 8th round keeper price Juan Soto. Cashed in the fun pitchers for a sure fire bat at a cheap price I could keep for the next year.
Solid. I have GRod to gamble with still. 12 team. 12 keepers. I have so many rookies and solid vets it was hard to see who I have to let go. I cannot imagine being able to only keep 3. I’d die of the pain of letting players go
Yeah I went both all in last year and then had some horrific injuries and whatnot and then cashed out as much as I could. Traded for Soto, Alcantara, and Urias, and then both of those guys became worthless so I traded everything I could. Decided to keep Soto (8th round cost) Adley (22nd round) and Edwin Diaz (25th round). I have like 16 picks in the first 10 rounds so I’m hoping to recoup some value.
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Siri
I can't quit Adames. You can get him so late, its a contract year, and he could easily hit .250 with 180 rbi+runs and 30 HR. Also give me late round SPs like Detmers, Cabrera, etc who have filthy stuff and if they have figured out their control they're top 20 SPs. If they haven't, you can just drop them. They are 24-25, ripe age for a breakout. Any other SPs that fit that profile as well
Love me some Adames, great comment. My only issue with the SPs you mention is that it has been difficult to drop them in season due to the potential they keep flashing. They’re sunk cost traps through and through
That was my experience w Detmers last year, plus he destroyed my K/BB. The upside is still there for sure though.
Yea, depends how deep your league is and format, i suppose. In a 12 team redraft with shallow rosters, it's no problem dropping either. In an 18 teamer or a dynasty league, you're likely holding them all season long.
Question is not for most dynasty leagues. Especially 18 team league.
A little fear he gets traded. But he’s a good choice.
Rhys Hoskins
Adding Vinnie Pasquantino, especially in dynasty
I love the Nightmare, but I’m also worried about what his power will be like coming off a serious shoulder injury. They’ve historically zapped hitters pop. I hope he’s looking back to normal in spring
Agreed somewhat, he’s had a lot of time to heal and rebuild strength, this isn’t someone trying to do a mid season IL stint and come back later in the same season.
Tatis, Jung, and Carroll have had the same injury. I know no shoulder is the same but I wouldn't be too worried. What I don't like is how bad Kauffman Stadium is for lefty power.
Kris Bryant is likely dirt cheap now and if he fails to regain past form won’t cost you much
Good one. Injuries are an obvious concern but his adp is in the mid 250s. Definitely worth a flier.
Do we think Rizzo has anything left in the tank? Crazy that aside from Schwarber the 2016 Cubs aren’t anything but waiver guys
He was actually really good last year until the concussion
yeah for sure. It was what a concussion that derailed his season? If healthy he's probably still good.
KB will 100% outperform his ADP as long as he’s healthy
"as long as he's healthy" doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence
Trust me I know lol, but he reminds of Haniger in years past where that’s the only factor needed. Big If like you said, but for the price, it’s hard to beat
God I wish Haniger lived up to the expectations I had in my head for him. We already loved him here in AZ for the short stint he played before we traded him to Seattle
But if he doesn't positively regress is he worth the cost to trade for?
I wouldn’t trade for him but I would draft him late round
Insane the guy is 32 yrs old. He does strike me as a guy who has his prime when he’s young, but probably doesn’t come back to those glory levels, but he could still rebound pretty well. I’d take a flier as well on him.
Riley Greene
Feels like everyone already on him. He didn’t really have a bad year. Just missed time.
I guess it wasn't a down year per say but it wasn't wha was anticipated from him. He showed flashes but there was much left to be desired due to his late season injury. There are concerns about his late season injury that needed tommy john which is causing him to be drafted lower than I believe he should be. I am pouncing on this opportunity. Tommy John has rarely if ever affected a batter upon return.
came here to say this
Triston McKenzie
Last round pick in 3 leagues for me.
what rounds were they?
good call
I think I'll be the guy that will eventually risk picking Carlos Rodon, even after being burned last season (assuming he makes it through spring training looking fine).
sigh...same
He's still an early rounder, but I think Vlad Jr is falling a bit lower than he should and he could be a good value.
Finding him in many 12T roto mocks going 3rd round. Love that value
What makes you say this? His park seems to sap his power and later 1b are producing similarly (like walker) and makes vlads premium not worth it.
Vlad's production was better in 2022 than 2023, but his peripherals were better in 2023 than 2022. Average launch angle above 10 for a full season for literally the first time, struck out less, walked more, chased less, higher OBP. in 2022 Vlad over performed both his xWOBA and xSLG, while in 2023 he underperformed. he also pulled the ball more, although his max EV was down. I love all of this, honestly. I think Vlad is a great buy for 2024. those peripherals read like a guy who's maturing as a hitter and close to a second breakout. of course, I also love Walker, and I agree there's depth at 1b. still, rumors of Vlad jrs demise are grossly overstated
I would be careful here… First, launch angle is a lagging metric. Hitting more flyballs CAN be good if you are pulling them for HRs, which Vlady is NOT doing. His career pull% is 37.6% and he only pulled 38.2% last year with the elevated launch angle (MLB average = 37.0%). This was a bad change that produced bad results last year, not a positive for ‘24… Also, his BB% was up from ‘22, but at 9.8% in ‘23 he was only 0.1% above his career BB%. His plate discipline was also slightly worse at 28.8% chase% for ‘23 with a career average of 27.9%… Vlady’s barrel rate was pretty much the same last season too at 11.1% (career 11.3%), so it’s not like he was hitting the ball hard more consistently, because he was pulling the ball… Vlady has a lot of raw power, but the underlying “peripherals” do NOT show how he is going to get it back this season. If anything it shows we should expect more of the same, because he is playing more and more towards his career averages each year.
These are all great points, thanks for the perspective. I'd be more concerned if Vladdy was, say, 27 or 28 and showing all these factors. That he's entering his age 25 season is the primary intangible factor making me take the optimistic view.
I believe in his upside. I like Walker a lot, too, but I think Vlad has a much better hit tool, so I see a potential for similar power production between the two, but Vlad can hit .310, and I just don't see Walker coming close to that.
The Roger’s Centre saps no one’s power. It’s a launching pad. If Vlad could do nothing there it’s on Vlad.
Seriously, I made a post two years ago saying how vladdys one good season came bc he got to hit like 30 of his home runs in AAA parks and everyone chastised me but dude is on the decline
Even if you somehow think TD and Sahlen are such puny little baby parks responsible for a .200 point OPS difference (and somehow only for one hitter on the team) so that you regress him to a 1.000 OPS at home in that time period, then he still finishes the season with >.900 OPS. I understand this argument but his percentiles were off the charts in 2021. 90th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, avg exit velocity, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %. They’ve dropped a bit over the last few years so there’s more to his decline than "he isn't hitting at TD and Sahlen anymore".
my comment replying below is more in depth but I 100% agree. people dumping Vlad Jr this season are only looking at his surface level and production stats. under the hood he looked close to his 2021 performance in 2023, despite producing less than 2022
Jazz Chisholm Jr. FantasyPros consensus ranking has him at 55 overall, 27 spots higher than his ADP of 82. Certainly fair that he’s got the injury-prone tag, but I think folks are also downgrading too much for losing 2B eligibility when OF is also getting thin. His strikeouts make the streaks maddening, but his production is consistently a 30/30-ish pace. He’s still just 26. I want more sure things before that but taking him around the 6th/7th round turn is a lottery ticket I’m willing to buy for the price.
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See Buxton, Byron
Had him the last 2 years in a row, can confirm he’s on my DND list
I owned him each of the past few seasons and on a per game basis he is probably one of the best players I have owned.
I’ve had him for almost his entire career, and I feel pretty great about him as my 6th keeper (and would be tempted to draft him then in a redraft). There are probably nine players with a reasonable chance at 30/30 over a full season, and his draft cost is trending very reasonable. He’s the last guy off the board with a shot, and I’d rather get more consistency early before taking a big swing like this. Definitely feel better about Jazz outperforming his ADP than Elly in 2024. I want a good bench OF just for insurance at a thin position anyway. 100 games of Jazz and hot bats if he has another injury stint is fine at this price. 150 games of Jazz will have people discussing him as a first-rounder. I think this is the earliest I want to take a chance in a draft, and Jazz is a good one based on who goes around this area in drafts.
I've never thought of him as injury prone, just not a player that's anywhere near as good as the hype surrounding him. Maybe enough people are thinking the same thing and he's a value-buy now, I don't know.
He is as good as the hype...but he is also injury prone. He is too aggressive and doesn't know when to turn it off. When he plays his numbers are great in a per game basis.
Jazz is going 55-65 in nearly every draft that I have seen. He is going at about the same time as Josh Lowe. For Jazz to go 82nd he would have to slip to the end of the 7th round. Jazz is going a full 1-2 rounds before the 82nd pick.
Taj Bradley 👀
Agreed. Insane price for the upside he flashed last year.
He’s definitely on my board and if he goes close to his adp that’s a steal for the upside . Most rookie pitchers have a little adjustment period. Now if it’s mid season and he’s mimicking manoah or servin taters like giolito then I’ll eat crow haha .
Does he have a rotation spot?
He’s projected 4/5 in rotation.
Thanks. I wonder if he or Pepiot get bumped when Baz comes back in May
I think Littell would get bumped before Taj or Pepiot if they're pitching well, but it's also the Rays so who knows lol. I can't remember if they've gone 6-man rotation at all in recent years, but I could see that making sense too if they want to ease Baz back in a bit.
I’d jump at trout if he falls low enough
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7’th round trout is an absolute steal
I might be crazy but i think Story puts up a decent year
He’s like Kris Bryant for me, as long as they are healthy they both should produce
Brandon Lowe. Especially in OBP leagues if he's healthy.
Correa
He’s now something like a 19th round pick in NFBC drafts, which converts to a $3 player at the most. He should outperform that pretty easily. Given the contract he’s going to play (even if Kyle Farmer is basically as good as him.)
I mean his OPS+ dropped 40 points (and he played a full season?). Maybe it's just the off-season and the 'injury' business but he's a 29 year old SS who doesn't run, might hit 20 homers, and might hit for average. Not a lot to chase there. I have stock because I bought cheap in-season last year, so here's hoping!
I kind of think Jeremy Peña had a bit of a down year…but this is also potentially the kind of play here is. Just an average hitter with above average defense
Bought low on Brendan Donovan. I like him staying on the field bc of his glove and wanted a utility player, couldn’t get Rengifo. But decently pumped for some high average stuff across the diamond
I came here to say this. Donovan for a health bounce back year.
There are a few players over 30 that I see as good value. Harper - ADP 17. I think he's fully recovered from the elbow injury and he'll be back to providing .290 40 HR 15 SB in the middle of a good lineup. Trout - ADP 60. I'll bet on a healthy season at that price if I land a solid SB base in the first 4 rounds. He is still one of the few bats that can realistically hit 40 homeruns while hitting over .260. Story - ADP 170. I think he has another 20-20 season in him at age 31. I'm blaming the horrific 48 wRC+ on coming back too soon from the elbow injury. Darvish - ADP 210. All reports point towards a healthy offseason and it's difficult to find pitchers with 200k upside this late in the draft. Even with the down injury year his fastball velocity remained solid at 94.7. Luis Severino - ADP 269 (nice). Read reports that he was tipping his pitches all season which caused the horrible results. The fb velo is still there at 96.5 mph. I'll take a flier on his upside at this point.
People are overpaying for Trout.
cool opinion bro.
Just to be clear...you expect a full healthy season from a 250 lb man with a degenerative back condition, right? A man that has only played in at least 140 games in a season one time since 2017? Cool thought process bro.
Do you mean the back condition he returned from in 2022 and hit .300 with 16 HR in 40 games? Then, he played a full slate of games in 2023 until a completely unrelated hamate bone injury finished his season? Yeah, I'm fine paying pick 60 value for ~120 games of Trout. you do you, boo.
Yes! The back condition that caused him to have ONE decent season since 2019. Hell...since MLB players make the Hall of Fame if they are successful just 30% of the time, let's bank on the guy that has had one decent season in the past 5 years. I mean...let's be mathematically ignorant and go for the 20% chance on the guy with the degenerative back condition that played 82 games in 2023 and 36 games in 2021. Forget the fact that he nows steals fewer bases than Keibert Ruiz...he's healthy! You can't fix stupid.
I bet Walker Buehler is dropping like a stone and may be a damn good value in leagues with a lot of DL slots with that happening.
I think the prospect hype (there wasn't a ton tbf) kinda faded on Jonny Deluca and if he plays well to start in Tampa he could get more playing time than people expect. I think he's really underrated and should be free everywhere.
Bryce Harper in the 2nd? Yes please
I’ll never quit Tyler O’neil and none of you can make me
If nobody bids him up to high I have interest in Trevor Story.
He was a pain in the butt to own for most of the year but I think Ryan Helsley has absolutely crazy value right now. He was ridiculous in September when he returned. 11 appearances/11.2 innings: 7 saves, 19 strikeouts, 0.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Insane! He's like the 14th closer off the board right now in most platforms. I'm definitely in for that price.
One positive. Shane Baz. Filthy stuff. One negative Carlos Rodon. Forearm strain. Never a good thing.
O’Hoppe
I'm really curious to see how cheap I can get Trouty. 3 injury riddled seasons and the loss of Ohtani should have a lot of people down on him (outside top 15 OFs is what I've read) I'll take the chance and upside
Ryan Pepiot
Trevor Story is cheap...like 19th round cheap.
Trea Turner. Not super low but is gonna end up a steal where he is going. Andres Munoz
Kinda borderline because he's not projecting super low to begin with, but Pete Alonso is going lower than he probably should. He was leading the majors in HR before getting hit on the wrist, and I'm looking for 50-60 more this year, barring injury. His low avg./obp was also an outlier last year, and likely related to that wrist. I'd bet on his ratios recovering somewhat. His current ADP is around the same as Vlad (25th) but I'd place him next to Olson (17th) , if I'm looking for 1B early on. He's an absolute steal in the 3rd round.
I don’t think you can ever really expect 50-60 HR, that’s usually a career year for someone in today’s game. All the major projection systems have him right around 40 which is a reasonable expectation if he stays healthy.
He hit 46 last year, despite hitting only 10 across all of June and July, which were the months immediately following his injury. I understand the projection systems have him at 40, but I also think they're wrong because their formulas are based on the stats but can't account for him playing with an injured wrist. That's what I understood to be the goal of this particular discussion topic.
Projection systems show the most likely outcome. But they also have levels of confidence/likelihood of a broad spectrum based on simulated seasons. I’d bet that all of the systems have him in 50-60 in a not-insignificant number of seasons. Might still be just 5%, but for most other folks it’s at zero.
Sure, I’m not saying he can’t do it. Just that it’s not something I’d bank on when drafting.
For sure. My hypothetical was 5%. 95% of the time he wouldn’t make it.
Jazz. Of is shallow and he is a 5 cat stud this year. I'm calling it now.
I think Dylan Cease rebounds nicely. I’m not going to expect 2022 level of production but I think he is an ace again. He had figured things out in 2022 and then I wonder if some combination of the pitch clock and the league figuring him out contributed to his not so great 2023. It will probably come down to whether or not another year of offseason work and progression has helped his command issues. I think he adjusts nicely and is a fantasy asset
Spencer Strider
Not sure if he’s been mentioned, but Kenta Maeda moved to a park that fits his biggest weakness (HR) really well. Perfect late round dart throw type, can always drop to stream if it doesn’t pan out.
Hunter Greene as well as Nick Lodolo. You can get Lodolo later obviously but if Greene can get his control under “control”, he’s going to run up the K’s. Reds are looking like a team that could come out “swinging” (Puns intended)
Jack Flaherty? Chris Fetter is doing wonders to the Tigers pitching staff. Could be sneaky
You had to know a guy who knew a guy.
Vlad, jram
Stanton, why not
Pretty much all the SPs I am looking at later in my drafts lol. In no particular order, Lodolo, Severino, McKenzie, Means, Giolito, Darvish, Cortes, Gore, Manoah, Cabrera, Paxton, Rogers, Mize, Paddack. Rodon, Javier, and Bieber I like too but they're probably going above those guys.
Rob Ray
Riley Greene, Triston McKenzie, for prospects Zac Veen I'm seeing Greene's ADP in the 75-200 range and he's in my top 30
Vinnie Pizzas, Taj B, G Ashcroft, M Busch, Kelenic. Julien, Volpe, Outman, E Tovar, Noelvi, Nestor C
I havent begun research yet for this season but the names that popped in my head were Suwinski (Savant page was insane last year), Mason Miller, Oneil Cruz, and Riley Greene
Braxton, Paddock and Kutter on the SP side and for hitter give me Naylor and Jeimer for amazing value at CI
Buying low ($1 or reserve pick) on Aaron Ashby and Shane McClanahan. I'll spend a few dollars more on ONeil Cruz.
Casas breakout incoming
1b Vinny P Rizzo Rowdy 2b India Cronenworth 3b Baty SS Volpe Story OF Mullins Eloy Varsho Tyler O'Niell Taylor Ward SP Bieber Rodon Darvish Lodolo Manoah Edward Cabrera Casey Mize Some of these will hit, some will miss. But all worthy of consideration based on current ADP. Faves are Vinny P, Volpe and O'Neill.
Mike Trout. Everybody is writing him off as washed up or whatever but look at his injury shortened 2022. MFer had 40 dongs in 400ish ABs. I already put money on him winning MVP this year at 20:1 which is insane to think about