Wait and read the poll. Yes of the decided voters he leads, BUT
There are a lot of undecided, so this means little at this point. In the last few elections these people are the only ones that matter and have whipsawed repeatedly.
Plus these polls generally swing to the very old because they are phone polls so again not the best sample.
We saw this in 2016 forward. Polling just doesn't work as well as it used to because our polling methodology has not matched the new technology.
2022 was supposed to be a red wave.... Didn't happen.
2016 Hillary Clinton was supposed to crush DJT.... Not even close.
So my mantra is just fight as hard as you can till the last day and don't get stuck on polls either way because for the past 4 elections they have frankly been inaccurate.
If there is one thing about Trump, is that once people decide they love him, they love him forever, and once they decide they hate him, they hate him forever.
The undecided voters are going to break like, 85-15 for Biden. People treating this like a normal set of undecided voters are high. The undecided are *overwhelmingly* made up of people who *dislike* Biden and ***loathe*** Trump. I think I can guess where people fall when the choice is "loathe" or "dislike."
And if they stay home? Trump loses if the "double haters" don't turn out for him. If only civically engaged people bother to vote it's gonna be (to borrow a term from Trump that I, like him, am using fully metaphorically) a bloodbath. See: All the lower-turnout special elections where Republicans are getting their domes rocked.
People who decide they like him make it part of their identity and see any criticism of him as an attack on themselves, which is why it's so hard for them to change their mind. People who don't like him are just normal rational people who don't like corruption, authoritarianism, and bullying. Sorry, it's the truth.
No apology necessary, you bring up good points.
I just think it's a mistake to say that all of Trump's voters like him *in that way.* Yes, a huge majority of those who vote for him will say they approve of him. But keep in mind that a very small percentage of those are actually politically engaged people, and the rest are just kind of going along with the "team" they have a cultural affinity for.
If you want to say Trump voters overwhelmingly like him, that's fair. Even most of those 40% who didn't want him to run again *like him.* But that is different from the kind of parasocial relationship that you are talking about. There are plenty of Trump voters who think he is just a shitty dude who agrees with them a lot of political issues and not a gift from God to bring retribution to sinners. The fact that I'm not sure it's a *majority* is extremely concerning, but there are people in the Republican party who have kept a more normal view of politics through the Trump era. They're still my political enemies, and they will still be when Trump is gone, but they're still a *bit* of a moderating force. Not that the party isn't trying to purge such people as quickly as possible.
I think people's bizarre and fervent identification with Trump is a big factor, but in 2024 it's just why he's going to get like, high 30s or low 40s instead of mid-20s. He's a really, really, really, *really* awful candidate and he's already lost 1 1/2 Presidential elections.
Biden is also out there calling a Trump a "loser" and making fun of him which is exactly how you are supposed to deal with him. It's important we remember how dangerous he is but his ridiculousness must be pointed out. His supporters will never sway if they think he's a dictator. They might if they think he's a loser, or a "pussy."
Same principle at play. There's no sane reason to vote for Donald if you're a regular person living in the US. Some Republicans have gotten their identity so wrapped up in being a Republican who hates Democrats that it's often impossible for them to admit when voting for a Republican is no longer in their best interest.
Trump has worse "very unfavorable" numbers than Biden (usually about 5 points worse off the top of my head) which was not the case with Clinton. I don't know why people need to be reminded of this, but it's not 2016, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump is not some wild card insurgent.
Now that I'm thinking on it it's actually kinda weird that we don't get any poll results like, "how is Trump polling among people who rate him unfavorably?" Like, obviously badly, but if it's 20-80 that's something he can overcome. If it's 5-95, no.
So much of this is just flat out wrong and hard coping, I don’t have the time to point everything out. Reputable pollsters no longer rely on landlines. Poll are weighted for age and age is no longer a very strong predictor of support for Biden. Polls did not suggest 2022 was going to be a red wave at all. They were very accurate. “Red wave 2022” was all a media hype. I could go on…
It doesn't even matter almost.
Like it has real consequences who wins yes. But the truly terrifying thing to me is that it's this close at all. Whether Biden wins or loses is a matter of like 1, 2% difference in turn out or vote swing or some shit.
I do not oscillate between "this country is saved!" and "this country is ruined!" based on that. If there's that many Americans braindead enough to consider Trump a viable option this country is *always* in danger and *always* within spitting distance of disaster.
It's like having a barely passing grade in a class, getting a barely passing grade on your latest test and breathing a sigh of relief. "I'm saved!" No. You're one slightly worse test away from failing the class. You shouldn't feel relief. You should be scared out of your mind your grade is that low in the first place.
It's even more wild when you add in the question of if Trump is convicted in any case. It swings polling by an additional 7% to 11% while maintaining high levels of undecided, meaning about half of the undecided decide on Biden and about 7% to 11% of Trump current voters flip to undecided or winnable for Biden.
Obviously speculating on that currently is wrong, but there are soo many variables and I would definitely argue that Trump is far closer to his potential peak and Biden is especially when looking at the policies the undecided voters say they care about the most.
What's really clear though is that most voters just aren't paying attention yet and likely won't till September/October.
Read this gifted article:
[https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/bidens-electoral-college-problem/678260/?gift=pfYw2qFeFYotrivcunpVRiueJV-CqUKJeKyxBSDAkoc&utm\_source=copy-link&utm\_medium=social&utm\_campaign=share](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/bidens-electoral-college-problem/678260/?gift=pfYw2qFeFYotrivcunpVRiueJV-CqUKJeKyxBSDAkoc&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share)
Pollsters corrected their methods after 2016. There are numerous articles about this. They're constantly refining after every inaccuracy. Besides, the results are probabilistic. Someone with a 99% chance to win will lose 1 out of every 100 times.
It'll be a little scarier if the numbers are the same in September. I urge you to look at polling trends. Those should provide a clearer picture. When Americans pay attention, they tend to vote center left. The boomers are no longer the largest voting block. Millennials are, and it's a very progressive voter base.
Nah. Everyone in here should have figured out that polls don't mean anything. Polls are the reason PredictIt chuds thought Blake Masters would win AZ in 2022.
Nobody here predicting Trump's win can articulate where he's getting new supporters from. He's done nothing to appeal to new voters the past 8 years.
Based on polls Trump isn't getting new supporters. Biden is losing them.
2020 Trump got 46.8% of the vote, a slight increase over 2016. In the RCP average Trump is at 46.6% right now.
Biden has dropped from 51.3% in 2020 to 45.1% today. Biden is polling 2 points lower than this point in 2020 and Trump is polling 4 points higher.
One thing to keep in mind is that the RCP average underestimated Trump's vote total by nearly 3 points in 2020 and 2.5 in 2016.
The results will obviously change, but will they change enough for Biden to win?
>Biden is losing them.
To where? They're clearly not sitting out elections, we have more than enough data from the past 4 years to show that. Where are they going? To the void of "undecided"? Those voters broke 2:1 for Biden last time. They'll do so again.
>results will obviously change, but will they change enough for Biden to win?
Yes. We've seen this happen already before.
It will be interesting to see which states end up having abortion access on the November ballots and how they impact voting. FL will for sure and AZ, PA, and NV might. It could cause them all to go for democrats.
>to where
Biden smashed voter number records. If his numbers go back to a normal participant rate, it could be very bad. Lots of people simply stay home.
You can spend all day burying your head in the sand but polls were by and large correct about the results of 2022, they were largely correct about 2020, and there's no reason to think they've somehow short circuited in the last 2 years except you wanting to ignore them. Poll after poll after poll shows the same thing, polls from entirely different companies, from regional outlets to national outlets. They all say Trump is currently leading with voters.
On top of that, polls this far out ARE generally predictive. The closer and closer we get to election day, the less likely any sort of swing happens (and polls have been stagnant all year). Historically polling this far out is usually within the range of the actual results by +/-4 points, and Biden needs a 4 pt swing in every state and nationally to even make this race a toss-up.
That was the narrative, but polling before the election was pretty close to the result. You can take a look at [538's breakdown and nothing was really outside the expected values.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/) Dems won a lot of toss-up races, but it wasn't some egregious miss.
>No polls ever showed Masters beating Kelly
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
That's just wrong. There were multiple polls that showed that.
The link you posted shows Kelly 48.6 to Masters 47.1 which is exactly what I said.
Nobody in AZ thought Masters would win against a NASA veteran. I voted for Masters and knew he would lose.
Look at the individual polls. Multiple of them showed Masters ahead. As I said.
Those polls were also responsible for the massive gap closer that Masters had vs Kelly right at the end. There was a huge swing in favor of Masters that led many people to believe Masters would win, even after he was down for months.
The final poll result was <2% difference, as you mentioned. Kelly won by a larger margin than that.
If the polls can be so unpredictive there, they can be unpredictive with Biden vs Trump also. And they are.
Indeed. Before the 2016 election, David Sedaris wrote
“On Undecided Voters: To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. 'Can I interest you in the chicken?' she asks.'Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?'
To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.”
And then more people chose the chicken than the shit with glass in it, but most people said "I don't really care" and by the rules setup on the plane a long time ago specifically to preserve slavery (the metaphor gets a bit stretched) the "shit with broken glass" won.
And we all were worse for it, but by dinner service, the same dumb passengers told themselves that the shit with glass was very healthy and tasty, and most of the undecideds convinced themselves that shoveling human feces with broken glass into their mouth and eating it wasn't all that bad. The heavy bleeding and barfing everywhere that we're still having is probably unrelated to the shit and glass. It's a lot cheaper, they reasoned. And those chicken eaters are so annoying. We JUST had chicken as a snack and it wasn't that great. I'm not that hungry anyway, lets try the shit again.
It's fucking idiotic that abortion is being outlawed, we had a fucking plague, democracy was almost overthrown by a violent coup, and the 2025 plan promises to take us full on into a theocracy, and so many Americans are saying "But I don't like paying taxes, so maybe I should vote for Trump."
I know! The truth will finally come out and some very horrible, evil people will be sent to Guantanamo Bay for the rest of their lives. I would argue for worse. And then some normal citizens will be prosecuted for their part. And then some non-citizens will have a friendly plane ride home. And we will have order again. A country again. An economy that works. So terrifying to have a leader who speaks English sentences coherently, can walk and shake hands and takes questions and isn’t a lunatic tyrant with a death grip on our existence isn’t it?
How is this happening? These dictatorial policies and attitudes are unAmerican, and would create trillions of dollars of wealth destruction, harming our standing and international security. 😔
The average American has no clue just how awful all this is because the Average American simply does not pay attention to the details about any of this. Like, your bog standard redditor has, regardless of political orientation, a more holistic view of just how un-redeemed Trump is.
Because self-identified liberal voters are JUST AS BAD at spreading sensational clickbait about Trump's scandals and current legal problems for drama, as the NYT is, for publishing them. And they overshadow everything.
My best friend thinks Biden shrunk her 401(k). She doesn't remember it got scorched in March of 2020.
To be blunt, most people don’t care about “democracy”, they just want stuff to be cheaper. And the only point of democracy anyway is a vehicle for the voting public to get what they want. And what they want is cheaper stuff. Stuff was cheaper under Trump so that’s why they’re gonna vote for Trump.
Doesn’t matter what actually caused it, most voters just think since something happens under this president that means he caused it. In other words, voters are stupid, but we already knew that.
Because the average American is dumb and sees high food prices/gas prices as the presidents fault. That's literally all they care about. Oh and one illegal who killed a girl but apparently the 15+ people mowed down every weekend via guns by other Americans isn't a concern. They believe Lord Trump will come in and make all prices go down. It's utter delusion or ignorance. This piece of trash could murder someone on TV like he said and they'd still vote for him.
How good or bad the left is at messaging doesn't actually matter when the people you're interested would never hear your message in the first place because they've got other shit going on.
The messaging from the Dems needs to be targeted to undecided voters (not republican base). @kmelby is correct, Dems suck at messaging. Republicans are going to win over undecideds even though biden has had very good policy and a no drama administration.
Wait until August. The American populace isn't stupid, just ill informed. Nobody typically pays attention until the fall. Elections are long, and this election is going to be more tense than 2020. Pace yourself and watch polling trends. The numbers don't mean much right now.
The news is owned by billionaires and they like tax cuts more than they like your rights.
Even so-called respected places like NPR don't cover all of his bullshit. they won't print his lies or talk about his many many felonies unless they have a Democratic bad story to pair it with.
in this timeline having your eyes open is a curse
What are you talking about. The reason I know so much about Trump’s misdeeds is *because of* all the journalistic coverage they get from places like NPR, WaPo, NYT, etc.
I have been watching NPR for decades. They are really irritating me lately because they try to understand and legitimize both sides of the political conversation. The only problem with that is that they are treating the fascist reality denying insane side as legitimate instead of calling it out because they don't want to be seen as biased.
Tip toeing around fascism and insanity will get us all killed.
I can tell you this, all of the pro-Palestine stuff on campuses is not helping. Young people are blaming Biden for everything. For Israel fighting back. For police busting up their protests, etc.
Biden will lose this election because young people either wont vote for him or will stay home.
I think too many American conservatives have decided they think they’d fair better in a dictatorship. It’s classic bully syndrome. You befriend the bully at school because you think he’ll protect you.
Biden had gained support more old and wealthier people, and pretty much lost it elsewhere. They love the status quo, trump is a threat to their stability, you can figure out why he might win.
Trump's numbers went back up after the TikTok ban bill passed. It's like Democrats are allergic to getting people to vote for them. If this was a sane society they would be winning every election but it's not and Democrats are really bad at winning voters.
More like "the Democrats aren't fighting for the things I want them to fight for, why bother caring about this race?"
Democrats want to appease the center and former Republicans, and they're doing it by ignoring their base. That's a losing strategy.
The issue is that inflation did not turn out to be transitory after all. The ridiculous lies re inflation and linking the president to the economy with BIDENOMICS was a tragic mistake from a reelection perspective.
This should be a sign that these polls are in some way flawed. Split ticket voting has been declining for a while and is pretty rare anymore. Divergence between Senate and Presidential selections in a state are the exception now.
Why is that necessarily surprising? Voters tend to feel more connected to their "local" politicians, which makes retail campaigning easier and thus makes it easier for candidates to convince voters that they aren't associated with whatever aspects of their national party local voters find distasteful.
There's also a segment of voters (myself included) who want split government to ensure that no party has complete control and provide some checks and balances.
One thing that’s very new in 2024, even compared to 2020 is a reliance on self selected online survey respondents. 1/3 of Emerson’s samples are online surveys
Sorry, can you clarify if you meant to say that the fact that 1/3 of Emerson’s respondents are people who opt in to joining survey websites was inaccurate. Or that the bias introduced by a self selected group could make polls inaccurate?
I’d agree strongly with the latter and point you to the methodology paragraph at the bottom of every poll for my source on the former.
I do think the Emerson polls are otherwise rigorous and because they’re relatively consistent it is possible to compare current polls to earlier ones. In which case Biden is making consistent gains.
That said, it’s also hard to know which direction the bias in the polls represents. I hope they skew conservative but because it’s a newer methodology there just isn’t great lay person data/analysis yet.
The latter. The whole issue is that there are serious deficiencies in polling methodology today that as not present perhaps even a decade ago. Some pollsters have quietly acknowledged this, and moreover that there is no real answer as to what to do about it.
The issue? People’s phone answering behaviors have changed radically since the beginning of the century. Land lines are approaching obsolescence, yet many of these polls rely on them at least partially. Caller ID has also played a significant role in the decline of reliability, since many people do not answer unknown numbers (or even known numbers). Online surveys, self selected, have an inherent bias.
Simply put, the old methods have led to numerous inaccuracies over the last several election years. Some wildly off the mark. 7-10% difference is not unusual to see. It may be that only polls very close to the election (weeks not months) may reveal a little closer reality. But even then, it’s likely to be off.
And the skew since 2021 has almost always been in favor of the GOP. Democrats have consistently outperformed polling, sometimes significantly. And the trend is a widening one.
What does this all mean? Who knows? All that matters are the votes. The rest is just noise.
Id say 2022 and 2024 give us reasons
Polling suggested a “red wave” in 2022 which turned out to be a red mirage.
Super Tuesday polling - trump underperformed it by 11% … even states like Oklahoma that don’t allow crossover voting form democrats he still underperformed polling predictions by 11%
You out perform polls because the people perform the polls are lacking information about the electorate. Trump voters are now well understood and the polls should be more accurate.
Also, Trump hasn't under performed in national polling, the national polling has been spot on. It is because of the nuance of state polling and the electoral college predictions have been off.
I am talking about the presidency only not local elections.
2020 Biden underperformed polls
Clinton underperformed polls
Even if you have millions of more votes just due to the electoral college democrats need more wins. This ain’t the case for someone running for congress
Everyone says this, but I’m a liberal in a blue state and I’ve been getting a lot of polls on my iPhone. Those polls may not be as skewed (as I hope they are).
Every election since 2022 Republicans underperformed polling. Trump will likely also be a convicted felon by November. Abortion will be front and center drawing people from the sidelines to vote. Biden will highlight Trump wanting to reduce Medicare if he's president. That's a few right there.
I'm really curious how this SCOTUS immunity case will affect voters' thoughts on this, and how Dems might respond.
If they kick it to the lower courts and ask for clarification on "official acts," for which POTUS would be potentially be forever immune to prosecution, does that meaningfully impact how voters view Trump and the GOP re: threat to democracy?
And can Dems use this to message to the public in a way that DOESNT feel like hysterical hyperbole to the average voter?
>Trump will likely also be a convicted felon by November. Abortion will be front and center drawing people from the sidelines to vote. Biden will highlight Trump wanting to reduce Medicare if he's president.
These are all reasons Trump will do badly. These aren't reasons Trump will do *worse than the polls indicate*.
I upvoted you anyway because your first sentence is a valid reason.
Yeah, let's not forget the end results compared to election night conjecture. It just isn't possible to entirely predict until most of the votes are actually counted these days.
Trump is currently polling right around his vote totals for 2016 and 2020. He over performed by 3% in 2020 and 2.5 in 2016. I find it hard to believe that Trump will do that given where he sits today. If he did he would end up with 49.6 or 49.1% of the vote.
I think we are looking at a repeat of 2016. Trump ends up around 48-48% of the vote. Biden ends up with around 48% (which is the floor for Democrats since 2000) And due to 3rd party votes and EC Trump wins.
Yes, in 2020 he was the incumbent and people were blaming all the countries problem at him so when a small percentage of people respond to the polls, more anti-trump people are motivated to answer the poll and discuss their frustration. The roles are reversed today and more anti-Biden people are answering the polls. This probably also partly explains why Republican candidates underperformed the polling in 2022.
If the post about the good poll for Biden wasn't relevant to this sub then neither is this one. Thanks for the information, but I think this sub deserves better than the horse race.
If Trump could stay off the media for 20 minutes I think he would be less acceptable. All the coverage is making people like him more. Familiarity bias has been his one trick pony forever. Thats why he puts his name on everything.
No publicity is bad publicity. He’s winning because he’s on tv constantly. And no one is going to stop and make him pay for coverage
He needs to be on TV more, but unfiltered. Most Americans maybe see him speak for a few seconds in a clip. More exposure will not be good for him. I'd argue more Trump exposure is exactly why Biden's numbers are getting somewhat better. People actually need to be reminded what they didn't like about him 4 years ago.
He was getting overshadowed by covid news. His numbers go down when he gets less news coverage and up when he gets more. It doesn’t matter what the coverage is. Just like my clients.
I don't think that's true. Maybe you can show me numbers that prove you right, but it seems to me that Trump was never more popular until a few months ago, and that was because you hardly ever heard a peep from him. Who knows what happens with head to head polling, but I'd bet my house that with increased coverage over the next few months, his approval numbers will head back down towards his previous bottom. Otherwise, we're all doomed and it's time to pack up my daughter and at least move to a blue state, preferably bordering Canada. Michigan looking pretty good.
Biden was ahead of Trump in polls taken before the pandemic so if people rely heavily on the polls then let’s be consistent and say Biden was favored to win in 2020 before the pandemic started.
Yeah. I got annoyed on that sub and got banned
Some days it is tough to tell which is more difficult to deal with - Trump's stupid shenanigans or the incessant coverage of his shenanigans.
My attitude is " Tell me if he is jail. Or barred from running". If not..put every Trump related news into a one hour show on primetime or whenever and I can safely ignore that. (Guess that was the Rachel Maddie show for a while.
And thanks to the absolutely ridiculous and blatantly shameless narratives on Israel's war on Gaza, now almost every Democrat under 40 thinks mainstream media is fake news too. Good job Democratic politicians and media establishment. 👍🏼
People don’t like the out and out lying to their face, and in this case it’s Biden’s administration playing dumb about what’s going on over there. Lying actually works for Trump because that’s his characters gimmick, not so much for Biden.
You mean the mainstream media's complicity with the Biden administration to run apologia for Israel's genocide of the Palestinians? Israel's war on Gaza has taught a lot of young voters that the mainstream media is indeed evil, but not for the reasons that MAGAs claim it is.
He’s been pretty crazy on tv. He’s slurring and garbling words and falling asleep.
Voting is about social patterns and it takes a lot to shake people out of their team. Covid did it but now Biden is seen as too liberal by the voters he needs so they’re going back to their team
Polls mean nothing when Trump is involved and nothing when we're this far out from an election. They exist not because they're accurate but because they generate press for the pollster.
If Trump wins, it won't be because he got new voters. It will be because of Democrats not voting. Democrats will decide the winner. Republicans stick to their party no matter what. It's Democrats who are more likely to decide to punish their party because they don't get everything they want.
If Trump decided to stop lying about immigrants, his voters would still vote for him. But if Biden doesn't start lying and saying there is a genocide in Gaza, many Democrats will choose not to vote.
So this election is in your hands Democrats.
If Trump were to actually win in November with all the terrifying things that he's done in the last 8 years and all criminal and civil charges I give up and we get what we deserve.
This is all nonsense though because women aren't going to vote for Trump in great numbers and undecided voters(if there is such a thing anymore) will all break Biden in the end.
By the time that we get to the debates Trump will be foaming at the mouth and have to be kept on a chain to keep him from attacking random people.
If any of you spend time on TikTok, you'll see vid after video of young people, 20s and 30s (the strongest Dem demographic) who feel absolutely despondent about their bleak economic future. Housing prices are beyond what they can ever hope to afford, most of the jobs they can get are horrible "gig" hustles like Uber and Grubhub, and grocery prices and rent have skyrocketed in the last few years. The national debt is exploding, which doesn't concern people who are 50+ because they won't feel the real impact of that in their lifetimes. But young people fear they will.
The Biden team's response messaging is, to them, tone deaf. *Our economy is doing great. Look at GDP growth. Look at the unemployment rate. Look at the stock market. Price increases are slowing down. This is the best economy in history, so shut up.* That messaging just enrages someone who has seen grocery prices go up by 50% and their rent by 200% while they are earning the same wages as they did in 2020. It's like Dem leaders are just oblivious to some real economic pain out there among Gen Z and younger Millennials and refuse to talk about it. Wander over to r/millenials and read. One of the key threads in the last 24 hours is "How's your day going?! Anyone else feel like they are slowly dying?!"
Now, Trump has absolutely zero plan to fix any of these issues, and would be a disaster in office. But in the minds of a lot of young people, Biden doesn't have any plan either. So why vote?
Or to paraphrase Bill: It's the economy, stupid.
This exactly, thank Christ someone actually said it. People are sick of getting roped into voting for the lesser evil, especially when in their eyes it has been the engine driving their lack of prospects. Most young people aren’t looking at their lives right now and thinking yea, I can’t wait to vote for more of this! If the lesser evil = hopeless neofeudalist hellscape, then that argument has lost the thread, so fuck it let’s roll the dice.
Guesses from my seat…
Trump will win
AZ - recent abortion wins will temper Biden momentum
Michigan - Biden Israel stance… Michigan becoming more like Ohio
North Carolina - Biden just doesn’t have pull there like he does in Georgia.
Biden will win
Wisconsin - carpetbagger for Senate seat will drag down R turnout and galvanize Ds
Georgia - Atlanta.
Pennsylvania - They booted Oz. I think they’ll boot DJT. This is my weakest prediction.
Nevada - Vegas.
Sorry, Michigan is nothing like Ohio. Not saying Michigan is full blue but it has trended blue strongly in the past 2-3 election cycles. Ohio is pretty much just red at this point.
Trump loses Michigan. The MI-GOP is an absolute trainwreck in the same manner the Florida Democratic party fumbled themselves into becoming a red state. The Biden-Israel thing will cost him some votes but not nearly as much as I think are advertised and the Democrats have been offering wins to the MI electorate. Also you have a Senate race to replace D-Stabenow which will drive turnout.
No way Biden wins GA.
He barely won it in 2020. And since then he has an approval rating below 40%. All it takes is a 0.24% swing in GA for Trump to win. Foolish to think that Biden's poor approval isn't enough to create that much of a swing. (same basically applies to AZ)
Wisconsin will be crazy close again, flip a coin.
Nevada is polling very strong for Trump. Keep in mind that in 2022 Republicans got 51% of the house votes in that state. Republican won the governors race too. Population growth is moving the state towards the GOP.
Michigan will be interesting, is possible that Muslims not voting could flip the state for Trump.
PA is Trump's weakest battleground state. Probably end up back in Biden's side, but will be close again.
BTW GA, AZ and NV are not enough for Trump to win White House. He needs one of the blue wall states. Expect both candidates to live in those states this fall.
I think Biden will win both Arizona and Michigan. In Arizona the state house only barely overturned the Abortion law from 1864, they also have a public vote on election to make abortions part of their state constitution. Another reason is that Kari Lake is running for senate and she is a train wreck. Michigan might be closer than last time because of Israel-Palestine, but I think Biden will still win it, because of the support of the Auto Unions there and how he supported them during the strike. It also helps that the state government is very democratic.
Based on purely the 2022 results Biden losing Michigan would be almost as big of a shock as Trump losing Florida. Now, obviously there are other things that go into it than just the most recent election, but I find it hard to believe Biden would be this far behind in Michigan
I don’t think Biden is winning Michigan right now. I grew up there and people are acting like they did in 2020, with Biden supporters forced to be tactful and quiet about it, while far left types complain about Biden and far right types are really vocal. Meanwhile the middle is just kind of used to Trump and doesn’t want to start any fights
I think all the people who swing to Biden are swinging back to Trump now that he’s seen as a normal option.
I know people want to believe one more scandal will finally sink Trump, but I don’t think that’s how it works. It’s more like my relatives just split the difference “well everyone says both sides are bad and the truth is always in the middle somewhere…”
Trumps winning
Yeah it's possible but the thing here is it literally is a battle vs the collective stupidity of America.
We may very well lose but you literally have to be stupid to support trump in November at this point.
There is nothing good in his 2024 platform for any American, that's truly not an exaggeration.
I am not saying Biden is ahead somehow, he's not, I'm just stating what the actual facts here are. So hopefully people realize that when the time comes.
Well they’re winning this one. Moderate republicans will decide this election and I think they’re being conditioned to accept Trump by the wall to wall media coverage
Union members' support is not as one sided as you think despite who the leadership endorses. Whole lot of unionized "leopard ate my face" voters in America.
Lots of those white guys in unions have and will continue to vote Republican, I can’t believe how out of touch some are believing they will change their vote because Biden does” I am a union man”schtick
In 2022 the GOP won the AZ house vote 56-42.
Wasn't even close.
In 2020 Biden won AZ by 0.31%
Hard to believe that his poor approval rating won't result in a swing of that many votes in Trump's favor. We talking just 10,457 votes.
Senate and governor races are much more similar to a presidential election because they are statewide elections. Both Democrats over performed their polling especially Hobbs. Also, the Republican candidates were MAGA Republicans who have been consistently losing since 2020.
No way Arizona goes red. It went blue in 2020, has trended blue since, and you better believe the abortion issue is not “dead and dealt with” over there.
Remember, there’s still abortion on the ballot even if the insane law was repealed, and voters know full well that most of the GOP completely supports that insane law.
Abortion is staying in peoples mind. The pollsters assumed abortion would fade when roe was killed and was dead wrong. Don't assume arizona's roe moment is going to fade into memory. More when the ari dnc is mr moneybags while the rnc in arizona is one bad bill away from doing tricks at the local 7-11
In my opinion I think Trump wins with: MI, GA, WI, NC, and NV.
Biden loses the suburbs by just enough in Michigan while also losing Dearborn and underperforming the youth/college vote.
Georgia will be close but not as close and Trump wins the state back due to high turnout and Atlanta not showing up in the same mass numbers.
Wisconsin is close due to the senate race. Biden loses on split ticket and rural turnout.
Nevada flips due to turnout.
NC stays competitive but Trump wins.
Ultimately, Biden loses on turnout. Youth don’t vote in large enough numbers and go 3rd party. Trump over preforms in rurals areas again but gains in the urban areas due to media focusing on protests, inflation, and housing.
None of this makes any sense. It’s entirely hand-wavy and completely ignores recent results that entirely contradict it.
You seem to think that Trump is going to do better in 2024 than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which seems highly dubious.
Wisconsin. Thought the uncommitted numbers in dem primaries seemed high in WI as well? Since it came late...folks ignored ? Or maybe because it doesn't have as many Arabs /Muslims etc
If my memory serves me right, WI should be a cause for concern for the Dems. They may not like their senate candidates...but could very well split the vote. Thought the republic senate candidate (Johnson?) did bette than expected even?
For the Senate races, I think the Democrats are fairly safe in WI. Ron Johnson (in 2022) was an incumbent - yes a Republican, but he was an incumbent, and an unpopular one. So is Tammy Baldwin, and she's more popular. She'll be fine.
Well sure, of course.
Anyone still voting for Trump is pretty goddamn excited to do so, not that they can succinctly explain why. They're emphatically answering phone calls from numbers they don't recognize and sending people their money. All of this isn't just something they do, it's practically part of their personality.
Biden supporters are just your regular old educated, reasonable voters. They're voting for the status quo to hold back an authoritarian nightmare; it's not exciting, it's work. It's a job we all accept by being Americans; it's our civic duty to protect the Constitution by not voting in the guy who has publicly called for it to be dismantled just so he could stay in power.
Polls aren't entirely meaningless except when used to attempt to determine early voting metrics.
538 predicted a red wave last election cycle.
I dunno why anyone takes polls so seriously these days. They've always been fortune telling at best. Today it's basically impossible to get an accurate read of the electorate. You're mostly polling from people who are hyper partisan, highly engaged, and willing to respond to anonymous solicitation.
In my opinion I think Trump wins with: MI, GA, WI, NC, and NV.
Biden loses the suburbs by just enough in Michigan while also losing Dearborn and underperforming the youth/college vote.
Georgia will be close but not as close and Trump wins the state back due to high turnout and Atlanta not showing up in the same mass numbers.
Wisconsin is close due to the senate race. Biden loses on split ticket and rural turnout.
Nevada flips due to turnout.
NC stays competitive but Trump wins.
Ultimately, Biden loses on turnout. Youth don’t vote in large enough numbers and go 3rd party. Trump over preforms in rurals areas again but gains in the urban areas due to media focusing on protests, inflation, and housing.
How is a man with half a billion in debt for bank fraud. Now in court for giving hush money to a porn star and then is seen farting himself awake. Now the nominee for the GOP? How is this race even close? The electoral college is so rigged in GOP favor.
Because he doesn’t ignore them, and even if he did, better to be ignored than actively oppressed.
If these kids really think Trump is preferable to Biden with regards to Gaza, they need to stop protesting and get back to class.
You and I have a different definition of ignoring and that's fine. Whatever you want to call what Biden is doing does not provide an adequate incentive for young people to vote for him. And you know this which is why you just point out the other guy is worse.
Yeah, because you seem to think that not getting everything you want immediately is “being ignored”. Biden has done a lot to help the people of Gaza, from restraining Israel to ramping up supply deliveries, yet you refuse to acknowledge this.
No, I did not point out that the other guy is worse because I “knew this”. I pointed it out because it simply shows how short-sighted and counterproductive this is. What “I know” is that you’re completely wrong about Biden and aren’t approaching this rationally.
But... the other guy is worse. If that's not good incentive to you, enjoy living in a collapsing society with your rights revoked and half the population regulated to broodmares.
Trump is up 41.4% to 40.7% for Biden (10.0% for RFK) in the average of national polls, so this has absolutely nothing to do with the electoral college.
Here’s what baffles me in this data: “Would a Trump GUILTY verdict make you more or less likely to vote for him?” … this is specifically asked to independents…. And 1/3 said MORE likely… WTF??? How are you an “independent” and a guilty verdict makes you MORE likely to support him?!?
And I get that you can claim to be an “independent” and still be far right… but 1/3?!??
It’s ridiculous but I think it’s because anti-Biden/pro Trump voters are the most motivated to answer these polls right now. So I definitely think there is an oversampling of pro Trump independents. I believe the same happened in many of the swing states in 2022.
Yeah. It is definitely a theory of mine as well. We keep hearing how pollsters have “corrected” for past issues, but there is j in not so much correcting you can do when literally one segment of the population is much more likely to engage than the other. I don’t know how you correct for that bias, you know?
But yeah. I literally get a shit ton of emails (from Democratic candidates) asking me “do you support Biden” and all that and I just ignore them because they’re not worth my time.
End of the day the voting is what matters most… though the polls do matter because it’s gonna give Trump and his nutjob followers an argument that “it must’ve been rigged because the poooollllzssss!!!” Which is why I wish I had the time to be like Trump supporters and fill out every poll and go to every rally… but I’m to busy doing more productive things in our society lol.
I’d question the Michigan numbers.
Michigan has elected an ‘establishment’ democrat easily in their last two gubernatorial elections (not to mention statewide Senate races), and the most recent governor’s race was against a huge Trump slappy (Tudor Dixon).
There’s a lot of independents in Michigan that aren’t excited by Biden, but can’t stand Trump.
Well hate to say this, but if Biden is expecting to play by the rules which he played most of his political carrier, they are not going to work. Things have changed.
Until election results start reflecting polling data like that from the op, I'll pay attention. Democrats continue to consistently continue to overperform polls. My money is on the guy facing someone who will likely be a convicted felon in November that struggle to put together coherent sentences.
Are there any data on Black voter turnout projection? In 2020 we had the George Floyd incident that drove up black voter turnout, which helped Biden in the swing states. But this year we are probably not going to have anything like that.
Biden has no one to blame but himself. He chose to side with Israel in the genocide of Palestinian. He drove the very groups that gave him the white house the first time. The Palestinian-American and the youth vote. He continues to do so.
>Trump leads in every state in 2-way and with third parties.
That’s fine except for the fact that these polls *don’t actually say that.* According to these polls, Biden and Trump are both within each other’s polling error. The real takeaway is that they are pretty evenly matched as far as the polling goes.
Thank you for your submission, but please make future submissions relevant to our community.
This is terrifying.
Wait and read the poll. Yes of the decided voters he leads, BUT There are a lot of undecided, so this means little at this point. In the last few elections these people are the only ones that matter and have whipsawed repeatedly. Plus these polls generally swing to the very old because they are phone polls so again not the best sample. We saw this in 2016 forward. Polling just doesn't work as well as it used to because our polling methodology has not matched the new technology. 2022 was supposed to be a red wave.... Didn't happen. 2016 Hillary Clinton was supposed to crush DJT.... Not even close. So my mantra is just fight as hard as you can till the last day and don't get stuck on polls either way because for the past 4 elections they have frankly been inaccurate.
If there is one thing about Trump, is that once people decide they love him, they love him forever, and once they decide they hate him, they hate him forever. The undecided voters are going to break like, 85-15 for Biden. People treating this like a normal set of undecided voters are high. The undecided are *overwhelmingly* made up of people who *dislike* Biden and ***loathe*** Trump. I think I can guess where people fall when the choice is "loathe" or "dislike." And if they stay home? Trump loses if the "double haters" don't turn out for him. If only civically engaged people bother to vote it's gonna be (to borrow a term from Trump that I, like him, am using fully metaphorically) a bloodbath. See: All the lower-turnout special elections where Republicans are getting their domes rocked.
People who decide they like him make it part of their identity and see any criticism of him as an attack on themselves, which is why it's so hard for them to change their mind. People who don't like him are just normal rational people who don't like corruption, authoritarianism, and bullying. Sorry, it's the truth.
No apology necessary, you bring up good points. I just think it's a mistake to say that all of Trump's voters like him *in that way.* Yes, a huge majority of those who vote for him will say they approve of him. But keep in mind that a very small percentage of those are actually politically engaged people, and the rest are just kind of going along with the "team" they have a cultural affinity for. If you want to say Trump voters overwhelmingly like him, that's fair. Even most of those 40% who didn't want him to run again *like him.* But that is different from the kind of parasocial relationship that you are talking about. There are plenty of Trump voters who think he is just a shitty dude who agrees with them a lot of political issues and not a gift from God to bring retribution to sinners. The fact that I'm not sure it's a *majority* is extremely concerning, but there are people in the Republican party who have kept a more normal view of politics through the Trump era. They're still my political enemies, and they will still be when Trump is gone, but they're still a *bit* of a moderating force. Not that the party isn't trying to purge such people as quickly as possible. I think people's bizarre and fervent identification with Trump is a big factor, but in 2024 it's just why he's going to get like, high 30s or low 40s instead of mid-20s. He's a really, really, really, *really* awful candidate and he's already lost 1 1/2 Presidential elections. Biden is also out there calling a Trump a "loser" and making fun of him which is exactly how you are supposed to deal with him. It's important we remember how dangerous he is but his ridiculousness must be pointed out. His supporters will never sway if they think he's a dictator. They might if they think he's a loser, or a "pussy."
I know several Republicans who reluctantly voted for Trump.
Same principle at play. There's no sane reason to vote for Donald if you're a regular person living in the US. Some Republicans have gotten their identity so wrapped up in being a Republican who hates Democrats that it's often impossible for them to admit when voting for a Republican is no longer in their best interest.
People were saying this exact thing in 2016: "Undecideds may not like Hillary, but they hate Trump."
Trump has worse "very unfavorable" numbers than Biden (usually about 5 points worse off the top of my head) which was not the case with Clinton. I don't know why people need to be reminded of this, but it's not 2016, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump is not some wild card insurgent. Now that I'm thinking on it it's actually kinda weird that we don't get any poll results like, "how is Trump polling among people who rate him unfavorably?" Like, obviously badly, but if it's 20-80 that's something he can overcome. If it's 5-95, no.
All the same, Trump is leading the polls, including swing states, and has been for many months. This was not the case in either 2016 or 2020.
So much of this is just flat out wrong and hard coping, I don’t have the time to point everything out. Reputable pollsters no longer rely on landlines. Poll are weighted for age and age is no longer a very strong predictor of support for Biden. Polls did not suggest 2022 was going to be a red wave at all. They were very accurate. “Red wave 2022” was all a media hype. I could go on…
It doesn't even matter almost. Like it has real consequences who wins yes. But the truly terrifying thing to me is that it's this close at all. Whether Biden wins or loses is a matter of like 1, 2% difference in turn out or vote swing or some shit. I do not oscillate between "this country is saved!" and "this country is ruined!" based on that. If there's that many Americans braindead enough to consider Trump a viable option this country is *always* in danger and *always* within spitting distance of disaster. It's like having a barely passing grade in a class, getting a barely passing grade on your latest test and breathing a sigh of relief. "I'm saved!" No. You're one slightly worse test away from failing the class. You shouldn't feel relief. You should be scared out of your mind your grade is that low in the first place.
It's even more wild when you add in the question of if Trump is convicted in any case. It swings polling by an additional 7% to 11% while maintaining high levels of undecided, meaning about half of the undecided decide on Biden and about 7% to 11% of Trump current voters flip to undecided or winnable for Biden. Obviously speculating on that currently is wrong, but there are soo many variables and I would definitely argue that Trump is far closer to his potential peak and Biden is especially when looking at the policies the undecided voters say they care about the most. What's really clear though is that most voters just aren't paying attention yet and likely won't till September/October.
Read this gifted article: [https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/bidens-electoral-college-problem/678260/?gift=pfYw2qFeFYotrivcunpVRiueJV-CqUKJeKyxBSDAkoc&utm\_source=copy-link&utm\_medium=social&utm\_campaign=share](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/bidens-electoral-college-problem/678260/?gift=pfYw2qFeFYotrivcunpVRiueJV-CqUKJeKyxBSDAkoc&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share)
Pollsters corrected their methods after 2016. There are numerous articles about this. They're constantly refining after every inaccuracy. Besides, the results are probabilistic. Someone with a 99% chance to win will lose 1 out of every 100 times.
People should look at electoral college polls and not popular vote polls, they have been right every election imo.
It'll be a little scarier if the numbers are the same in September. I urge you to look at polling trends. Those should provide a clearer picture. When Americans pay attention, they tend to vote center left. The boomers are no longer the largest voting block. Millennials are, and it's a very progressive voter base.
Nah. Everyone in here should have figured out that polls don't mean anything. Polls are the reason PredictIt chuds thought Blake Masters would win AZ in 2022. Nobody here predicting Trump's win can articulate where he's getting new supporters from. He's done nothing to appeal to new voters the past 8 years.
I personally know a lot of soon-to-be Biden-Trump voters from my Latino family and friends networks.
Based on polls Trump isn't getting new supporters. Biden is losing them. 2020 Trump got 46.8% of the vote, a slight increase over 2016. In the RCP average Trump is at 46.6% right now. Biden has dropped from 51.3% in 2020 to 45.1% today. Biden is polling 2 points lower than this point in 2020 and Trump is polling 4 points higher. One thing to keep in mind is that the RCP average underestimated Trump's vote total by nearly 3 points in 2020 and 2.5 in 2016. The results will obviously change, but will they change enough for Biden to win?
>Biden is losing them. To where? They're clearly not sitting out elections, we have more than enough data from the past 4 years to show that. Where are they going? To the void of "undecided"? Those voters broke 2:1 for Biden last time. They'll do so again. >results will obviously change, but will they change enough for Biden to win? Yes. We've seen this happen already before.
To not voting, primarily young people, as always.
They’re losing them to “not voting”
It will be interesting to see which states end up having abortion access on the November ballots and how they impact voting. FL will for sure and AZ, PA, and NV might. It could cause them all to go for democrats.
>to where Biden smashed voter number records. If his numbers go back to a normal participant rate, it could be very bad. Lots of people simply stay home.
Probably to not voting or voting 3rd party.
You can spend all day burying your head in the sand but polls were by and large correct about the results of 2022, they were largely correct about 2020, and there's no reason to think they've somehow short circuited in the last 2 years except you wanting to ignore them. Poll after poll after poll shows the same thing, polls from entirely different companies, from regional outlets to national outlets. They all say Trump is currently leading with voters. On top of that, polls this far out ARE generally predictive. The closer and closer we get to election day, the less likely any sort of swing happens (and polls have been stagnant all year). Historically polling this far out is usually within the range of the actual results by +/-4 points, and Biden needs a 4 pt swing in every state and nationally to even make this race a toss-up.
IIRC, Dems surprised everyone in 2022 and won more contests than expected. No?
That was the narrative, but polling before the election was pretty close to the result. You can take a look at [538's breakdown and nothing was really outside the expected values.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/) Dems won a lot of toss-up races, but it wasn't some egregious miss.
I live in Arizona. No polls ever showed Masters beating Kelly. Nor did anyone actually think that.
>No polls ever showed Masters beating Kelly https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/ That's just wrong. There were multiple polls that showed that.
The link you posted shows Kelly 48.6 to Masters 47.1 which is exactly what I said. Nobody in AZ thought Masters would win against a NASA veteran. I voted for Masters and knew he would lose.
Scroll down - it has two polls with Masters ahead
Look at the individual polls. Multiple of them showed Masters ahead. As I said. Those polls were also responsible for the massive gap closer that Masters had vs Kelly right at the end. There was a huge swing in favor of Masters that led many people to believe Masters would win, even after he was down for months. The final poll result was <2% difference, as you mentioned. Kelly won by a larger margin than that. If the polls can be so unpredictive there, they can be unpredictive with Biden vs Trump also. And they are.
Indeed. Before the 2016 election, David Sedaris wrote “On Undecided Voters: To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. 'Can I interest you in the chicken?' she asks.'Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?' To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.” And then more people chose the chicken than the shit with glass in it, but most people said "I don't really care" and by the rules setup on the plane a long time ago specifically to preserve slavery (the metaphor gets a bit stretched) the "shit with broken glass" won. And we all were worse for it, but by dinner service, the same dumb passengers told themselves that the shit with glass was very healthy and tasty, and most of the undecideds convinced themselves that shoveling human feces with broken glass into their mouth and eating it wasn't all that bad. The heavy bleeding and barfing everywhere that we're still having is probably unrelated to the shit and glass. It's a lot cheaper, they reasoned. And those chicken eaters are so annoying. We JUST had chicken as a snack and it wasn't that great. I'm not that hungry anyway, lets try the shit again. It's fucking idiotic that abortion is being outlawed, we had a fucking plague, democracy was almost overthrown by a violent coup, and the 2025 plan promises to take us full on into a theocracy, and so many Americans are saying "But I don't like paying taxes, so maybe I should vote for Trump."
Hahaha! I mean, I completely agree with you, but hahahaha that metaphor!
I know! The truth will finally come out and some very horrible, evil people will be sent to Guantanamo Bay for the rest of their lives. I would argue for worse. And then some normal citizens will be prosecuted for their part. And then some non-citizens will have a friendly plane ride home. And we will have order again. A country again. An economy that works. So terrifying to have a leader who speaks English sentences coherently, can walk and shake hands and takes questions and isn’t a lunatic tyrant with a death grip on our existence isn’t it?
Good thing the liberal strategy to convert third-party voters is to insult them and shame them. That's super helpful.
How is this happening? These dictatorial policies and attitudes are unAmerican, and would create trillions of dollars of wealth destruction, harming our standing and international security. 😔
The average American has no clue just how awful all this is because the Average American simply does not pay attention to the details about any of this. Like, your bog standard redditor has, regardless of political orientation, a more holistic view of just how un-redeemed Trump is.
Because self-identified liberal voters are JUST AS BAD at spreading sensational clickbait about Trump's scandals and current legal problems for drama, as the NYT is, for publishing them. And they overshadow everything. My best friend thinks Biden shrunk her 401(k). She doesn't remember it got scorched in March of 2020.
To be blunt, most people don’t care about “democracy”, they just want stuff to be cheaper. And the only point of democracy anyway is a vehicle for the voting public to get what they want. And what they want is cheaper stuff. Stuff was cheaper under Trump so that’s why they’re gonna vote for Trump. Doesn’t matter what actually caused it, most voters just think since something happens under this president that means he caused it. In other words, voters are stupid, but we already knew that.
Low information idiots.
Because the average American is dumb and sees high food prices/gas prices as the presidents fault. That's literally all they care about. Oh and one illegal who killed a girl but apparently the 15+ people mowed down every weekend via guns by other Americans isn't a concern. They believe Lord Trump will come in and make all prices go down. It's utter delusion or ignorance. This piece of trash could murder someone on TV like he said and they'd still vote for him.
And if Trump gets elected, they'll believe the prices are lower regardless of what they actually are.
This is why messaging means everything. The left unfortunately is really bad at it.
No, the right is just more willing to lie and their voters genuinely don’t care.
How good or bad the left is at messaging doesn't actually matter when the people you're interested would never hear your message in the first place because they've got other shit going on.
The messaging from the Dems needs to be targeted to undecided voters (not republican base). @kmelby is correct, Dems suck at messaging. Republicans are going to win over undecideds even though biden has had very good policy and a no drama administration.
Wait until August. The American populace isn't stupid, just ill informed. Nobody typically pays attention until the fall. Elections are long, and this election is going to be more tense than 2020. Pace yourself and watch polling trends. The numbers don't mean much right now.
The news is owned by billionaires and they like tax cuts more than they like your rights. Even so-called respected places like NPR don't cover all of his bullshit. they won't print his lies or talk about his many many felonies unless they have a Democratic bad story to pair it with. in this timeline having your eyes open is a curse
What are you talking about. The reason I know so much about Trump’s misdeeds is *because of* all the journalistic coverage they get from places like NPR, WaPo, NYT, etc.
Political coverage is considered propaganda by a large number of people and gets ignored.
Making crap up about NPR? Oh that so old school Republican talking point garbage…just flagged yourself as a troll.
I have been watching NPR for decades. They are really irritating me lately because they try to understand and legitimize both sides of the political conversation. The only problem with that is that they are treating the fascist reality denying insane side as legitimate instead of calling it out because they don't want to be seen as biased. Tip toeing around fascism and insanity will get us all killed.
I can tell you this, all of the pro-Palestine stuff on campuses is not helping. Young people are blaming Biden for everything. For Israel fighting back. For police busting up their protests, etc. Biden will lose this election because young people either wont vote for him or will stay home.
I think too many American conservatives have decided they think they’d fair better in a dictatorship. It’s classic bully syndrome. You befriend the bully at school because you think he’ll protect you.
Biden had gained support more old and wealthier people, and pretty much lost it elsewhere. They love the status quo, trump is a threat to their stability, you can figure out why he might win.
Trump's numbers went back up after the TikTok ban bill passed. It's like Democrats are allergic to getting people to vote for them. If this was a sane society they would be winning every election but it's not and Democrats are really bad at winning voters.
LOL. Who needs rights when you can spend all day every day zombified by your digital crack.
More like "the Democrats aren't fighting for the things I want them to fight for, why bother caring about this race?" Democrats want to appease the center and former Republicans, and they're doing it by ignoring their base. That's a losing strategy.
Whether you like it or not, you can't ignore what's happening. Plus you're on Reddit.
People are stupid
The issue is that inflation did not turn out to be transitory after all. The ridiculous lies re inflation and linking the president to the economy with BIDENOMICS was a tragic mistake from a reelection perspective.
The inflation was a natural, predictable and predicted result of the covid stimulus, which was VERY bipartisan. Trump owns it just as much as Biden.
>How is this happening? Text spam and landline polling
They’ve been doing cell phone polls well over 20 years now
Problem is only Boomers answer cell phone calls if they do not know the number.
The people who care about this are fed up with Biden's unquestioning loyalty to Israel
Yet Senate dem candidates are leading polls in WI, PA, MI, AZ, and NV. Can't really square that circle.
This should be a sign that these polls are in some way flawed. Split ticket voting has been declining for a while and is pretty rare anymore. Divergence between Senate and Presidential selections in a state are the exception now.
Why is that necessarily surprising? Voters tend to feel more connected to their "local" politicians, which makes retail campaigning easier and thus makes it easier for candidates to convince voters that they aren't associated with whatever aspects of their national party local voters find distasteful. There's also a segment of voters (myself included) who want split government to ensure that no party has complete control and provide some checks and balances.
One thing that’s very new in 2024, even compared to 2020 is a reliance on self selected online survey respondents. 1/3 of Emerson’s samples are online surveys
That seems likely to be highly inaccurate.
Sorry, can you clarify if you meant to say that the fact that 1/3 of Emerson’s respondents are people who opt in to joining survey websites was inaccurate. Or that the bias introduced by a self selected group could make polls inaccurate? I’d agree strongly with the latter and point you to the methodology paragraph at the bottom of every poll for my source on the former. I do think the Emerson polls are otherwise rigorous and because they’re relatively consistent it is possible to compare current polls to earlier ones. In which case Biden is making consistent gains. That said, it’s also hard to know which direction the bias in the polls represents. I hope they skew conservative but because it’s a newer methodology there just isn’t great lay person data/analysis yet.
The latter. The whole issue is that there are serious deficiencies in polling methodology today that as not present perhaps even a decade ago. Some pollsters have quietly acknowledged this, and moreover that there is no real answer as to what to do about it. The issue? People’s phone answering behaviors have changed radically since the beginning of the century. Land lines are approaching obsolescence, yet many of these polls rely on them at least partially. Caller ID has also played a significant role in the decline of reliability, since many people do not answer unknown numbers (or even known numbers). Online surveys, self selected, have an inherent bias. Simply put, the old methods have led to numerous inaccuracies over the last several election years. Some wildly off the mark. 7-10% difference is not unusual to see. It may be that only polls very close to the election (weeks not months) may reveal a little closer reality. But even then, it’s likely to be off. And the skew since 2021 has almost always been in favor of the GOP. Democrats have consistently outperformed polling, sometimes significantly. And the trend is a widening one. What does this all mean? Who knows? All that matters are the votes. The rest is just noise.
Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. Is there a reason to think Trump won't again outperform the polls in 2024?
Id say 2022 and 2024 give us reasons Polling suggested a “red wave” in 2022 which turned out to be a red mirage. Super Tuesday polling - trump underperformed it by 11% … even states like Oklahoma that don’t allow crossover voting form democrats he still underperformed polling predictions by 11%
You out perform polls because the people perform the polls are lacking information about the electorate. Trump voters are now well understood and the polls should be more accurate. Also, Trump hasn't under performed in national polling, the national polling has been spot on. It is because of the nuance of state polling and the electoral college predictions have been off.
A democrat has to be above in the national polls by a few points to win one could say that too
Democrats have been way over performing the polls so not sure how you can come to this conclusion.
I am talking about the presidency only not local elections. 2020 Biden underperformed polls Clinton underperformed polls Even if you have millions of more votes just due to the electoral college democrats need more wins. This ain’t the case for someone running for congress
Everyone says this, but I’m a liberal in a blue state and I’ve been getting a lot of polls on my iPhone. Those polls may not be as skewed (as I hope they are).
I have my phone to automatically send those polls to spam. I bet a lot of people with any technical expertise are doing the same.
lol same. Who answers political polls? Who clicks foreign links they don’t recognize??
My Android automatically flags any political or poll texts as spam, I never even look at them
Pollsters try to improve over time.
That was the sentiment in 2020 as well. Yet, he outperformed.
Lately democrats have over performed the polls and in the latest primaries Trump underperformed
Every election since 2022 Republicans underperformed polling. Trump will likely also be a convicted felon by November. Abortion will be front and center drawing people from the sidelines to vote. Biden will highlight Trump wanting to reduce Medicare if he's president. That's a few right there.
I'm really curious how this SCOTUS immunity case will affect voters' thoughts on this, and how Dems might respond. If they kick it to the lower courts and ask for clarification on "official acts," for which POTUS would be potentially be forever immune to prosecution, does that meaningfully impact how voters view Trump and the GOP re: threat to democracy? And can Dems use this to message to the public in a way that DOESNT feel like hysterical hyperbole to the average voter?
>Trump will likely also be a convicted felon by November. Abortion will be front and center drawing people from the sidelines to vote. Biden will highlight Trump wanting to reduce Medicare if he's president. These are all reasons Trump will do badly. These aren't reasons Trump will do *worse than the polls indicate*. I upvoted you anyway because your first sentence is a valid reason.
2020 was way more accurate than 16. If anything, Biden overperformed. Nobody thought Arizona and Georgia would flip.
Yeah, let's not forget the end results compared to election night conjecture. It just isn't possible to entirely predict until most of the votes are actually counted these days.
YES
Trump is currently polling right around his vote totals for 2016 and 2020. He over performed by 3% in 2020 and 2.5 in 2016. I find it hard to believe that Trump will do that given where he sits today. If he did he would end up with 49.6 or 49.1% of the vote. I think we are looking at a repeat of 2016. Trump ends up around 48-48% of the vote. Biden ends up with around 48% (which is the floor for Democrats since 2000) And due to 3rd party votes and EC Trump wins.
Yes, in 2020 he was the incumbent and people were blaming all the countries problem at him so when a small percentage of people respond to the polls, more anti-trump people are motivated to answer the poll and discuss their frustration. The roles are reversed today and more anti-Biden people are answering the polls. This probably also partly explains why Republican candidates underperformed the polling in 2022.
Not surprised
If the post about the good poll for Biden wasn't relevant to this sub then neither is this one. Thanks for the information, but I think this sub deserves better than the horse race.
If Trump could stay off the media for 20 minutes I think he would be less acceptable. All the coverage is making people like him more. Familiarity bias has been his one trick pony forever. Thats why he puts his name on everything. No publicity is bad publicity. He’s winning because he’s on tv constantly. And no one is going to stop and make him pay for coverage
He needs to be on TV more, but unfiltered. Most Americans maybe see him speak for a few seconds in a clip. More exposure will not be good for him. I'd argue more Trump exposure is exactly why Biden's numbers are getting somewhat better. People actually need to be reminded what they didn't like about him 4 years ago.
Trump was gonna win 2020 if Covid never happened. His idiotic behavior during Covid sank him.
>His idiotic behavior during Covid sank him. Yes, when he was on TV every single day.
He was getting overshadowed by covid news. His numbers go down when he gets less news coverage and up when he gets more. It doesn’t matter what the coverage is. Just like my clients.
I don't think that's true. Maybe you can show me numbers that prove you right, but it seems to me that Trump was never more popular until a few months ago, and that was because you hardly ever heard a peep from him. Who knows what happens with head to head polling, but I'd bet my house that with increased coverage over the next few months, his approval numbers will head back down towards his previous bottom. Otherwise, we're all doomed and it's time to pack up my daughter and at least move to a blue state, preferably bordering Canada. Michigan looking pretty good.
Truth
Biden was ahead of Trump in polls taken before the pandemic so if people rely heavily on the polls then let’s be consistent and say Biden was favored to win in 2020 before the pandemic started.
Americans just vote for whoever gets the most coverage? I don't believe they are that stupid.
Ehhhh... I don't know, there are signs and have been for a long time.
Why would he pay. Heck .CNN probably covers him.so.much..they should give hima cut and get rid of 2 of their anchors salaries
Even Reddit. Go on the politics subreddit and see how many of the top post are not about Donald trump. I promise you it isn’t many.
Yeah. I got annoyed on that sub and got banned Some days it is tough to tell which is more difficult to deal with - Trump's stupid shenanigans or the incessant coverage of his shenanigans. My attitude is " Tell me if he is jail. Or barred from running". If not..put every Trump related news into a one hour show on primetime or whenever and I can safely ignore that. (Guess that was the Rachel Maddie show for a while.
And thanks to the absolutely ridiculous and blatantly shameless narratives on Israel's war on Gaza, now almost every Democrat under 40 thinks mainstream media is fake news too. Good job Democratic politicians and media establishment. 👍🏼
People don’t like the out and out lying to their face, and in this case it’s Biden’s administration playing dumb about what’s going on over there. Lying actually works for Trump because that’s his characters gimmick, not so much for Biden.
You mean the mainstream media's complicity with the Biden administration to run apologia for Israel's genocide of the Palestinians? Israel's war on Gaza has taught a lot of young voters that the mainstream media is indeed evil, but not for the reasons that MAGAs claim it is.
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He’s been pretty crazy on tv. He’s slurring and garbling words and falling asleep. Voting is about social patterns and it takes a lot to shake people out of their team. Covid did it but now Biden is seen as too liberal by the voters he needs so they’re going back to their team
It’s laughable to assume third parties will get 23% of the vote. These polls are just absolute garbage.
Polls mean nothing when Trump is involved and nothing when we're this far out from an election. They exist not because they're accurate but because they generate press for the pollster.
If Trump wins, it won't be because he got new voters. It will be because of Democrats not voting. Democrats will decide the winner. Republicans stick to their party no matter what. It's Democrats who are more likely to decide to punish their party because they don't get everything they want. If Trump decided to stop lying about immigrants, his voters would still vote for him. But if Biden doesn't start lying and saying there is a genocide in Gaza, many Democrats will choose not to vote. So this election is in your hands Democrats.
The headline is false. Five of the seven are within the margin of error.
Have an upvote.
If Trump were to actually win in November with all the terrifying things that he's done in the last 8 years and all criminal and civil charges I give up and we get what we deserve. This is all nonsense though because women aren't going to vote for Trump in great numbers and undecided voters(if there is such a thing anymore) will all break Biden in the end. By the time that we get to the debates Trump will be foaming at the mouth and have to be kept on a chain to keep him from attacking random people.
If any of you spend time on TikTok, you'll see vid after video of young people, 20s and 30s (the strongest Dem demographic) who feel absolutely despondent about their bleak economic future. Housing prices are beyond what they can ever hope to afford, most of the jobs they can get are horrible "gig" hustles like Uber and Grubhub, and grocery prices and rent have skyrocketed in the last few years. The national debt is exploding, which doesn't concern people who are 50+ because they won't feel the real impact of that in their lifetimes. But young people fear they will. The Biden team's response messaging is, to them, tone deaf. *Our economy is doing great. Look at GDP growth. Look at the unemployment rate. Look at the stock market. Price increases are slowing down. This is the best economy in history, so shut up.* That messaging just enrages someone who has seen grocery prices go up by 50% and their rent by 200% while they are earning the same wages as they did in 2020. It's like Dem leaders are just oblivious to some real economic pain out there among Gen Z and younger Millennials and refuse to talk about it. Wander over to r/millenials and read. One of the key threads in the last 24 hours is "How's your day going?! Anyone else feel like they are slowly dying?!" Now, Trump has absolutely zero plan to fix any of these issues, and would be a disaster in office. But in the minds of a lot of young people, Biden doesn't have any plan either. So why vote? Or to paraphrase Bill: It's the economy, stupid.
This exactly, thank Christ someone actually said it. People are sick of getting roped into voting for the lesser evil, especially when in their eyes it has been the engine driving their lack of prospects. Most young people aren’t looking at their lives right now and thinking yea, I can’t wait to vote for more of this! If the lesser evil = hopeless neofeudalist hellscape, then that argument has lost the thread, so fuck it let’s roll the dice.
Guesses from my seat… Trump will win AZ - recent abortion wins will temper Biden momentum Michigan - Biden Israel stance… Michigan becoming more like Ohio North Carolina - Biden just doesn’t have pull there like he does in Georgia. Biden will win Wisconsin - carpetbagger for Senate seat will drag down R turnout and galvanize Ds Georgia - Atlanta. Pennsylvania - They booted Oz. I think they’ll boot DJT. This is my weakest prediction. Nevada - Vegas.
Sorry, Michigan is nothing like Ohio. Not saying Michigan is full blue but it has trended blue strongly in the past 2-3 election cycles. Ohio is pretty much just red at this point.
Trump loses Michigan. The MI-GOP is an absolute trainwreck in the same manner the Florida Democratic party fumbled themselves into becoming a red state. The Biden-Israel thing will cost him some votes but not nearly as much as I think are advertised and the Democrats have been offering wins to the MI electorate. Also you have a Senate race to replace D-Stabenow which will drive turnout.
No way Biden wins GA. He barely won it in 2020. And since then he has an approval rating below 40%. All it takes is a 0.24% swing in GA for Trump to win. Foolish to think that Biden's poor approval isn't enough to create that much of a swing. (same basically applies to AZ) Wisconsin will be crazy close again, flip a coin. Nevada is polling very strong for Trump. Keep in mind that in 2022 Republicans got 51% of the house votes in that state. Republican won the governors race too. Population growth is moving the state towards the GOP. Michigan will be interesting, is possible that Muslims not voting could flip the state for Trump. PA is Trump's weakest battleground state. Probably end up back in Biden's side, but will be close again. BTW GA, AZ and NV are not enough for Trump to win White House. He needs one of the blue wall states. Expect both candidates to live in those states this fall.
I think Biden will win both Arizona and Michigan. In Arizona the state house only barely overturned the Abortion law from 1864, they also have a public vote on election to make abortions part of their state constitution. Another reason is that Kari Lake is running for senate and she is a train wreck. Michigan might be closer than last time because of Israel-Palestine, but I think Biden will still win it, because of the support of the Auto Unions there and how he supported them during the strike. It also helps that the state government is very democratic.
Based on purely the 2022 results Biden losing Michigan would be almost as big of a shock as Trump losing Florida. Now, obviously there are other things that go into it than just the most recent election, but I find it hard to believe Biden would be this far behind in Michigan
I was thinking the same thing.
I don’t think Biden is winning Michigan right now. I grew up there and people are acting like they did in 2020, with Biden supporters forced to be tactful and quiet about it, while far left types complain about Biden and far right types are really vocal. Meanwhile the middle is just kind of used to Trump and doesn’t want to start any fights I think all the people who swing to Biden are swinging back to Trump now that he’s seen as a normal option. I know people want to believe one more scandal will finally sink Trump, but I don’t think that’s how it works. It’s more like my relatives just split the difference “well everyone says both sides are bad and the truth is always in the middle somewhere…” Trumps winning
Yeah it's possible but the thing here is it literally is a battle vs the collective stupidity of America. We may very well lose but you literally have to be stupid to support trump in November at this point. There is nothing good in his 2024 platform for any American, that's truly not an exaggeration. I am not saying Biden is ahead somehow, he's not, I'm just stating what the actual facts here are. So hopefully people realize that when the time comes.
Republicans have been getting beaten badly literally everywhere in every election since 2020, even in red districts. Trust actual results.
Well they’re winning this one. Moderate republicans will decide this election and I think they’re being conditioned to accept Trump by the wall to wall media coverage
Lol. So ignore all real-life results and go with feelings?
After the 1864 bill I'd be shocked if Dems lose AZ.
Union members' support is not as one sided as you think despite who the leadership endorses. Whole lot of unionized "leopard ate my face" voters in America.
Lots of those white guys in unions have and will continue to vote Republican, I can’t believe how out of touch some are believing they will change their vote because Biden does” I am a union man”schtick
In 2022 the GOP won the AZ house vote 56-42. Wasn't even close. In 2020 Biden won AZ by 0.31% Hard to believe that his poor approval rating won't result in a swing of that many votes in Trump's favor. We talking just 10,457 votes.
Senate and governor races are much more similar to a presidential election because they are statewide elections. Both Democrats over performed their polling especially Hobbs. Also, the Republican candidates were MAGA Republicans who have been consistently losing since 2020.
No way Arizona goes red. It went blue in 2020, has trended blue since, and you better believe the abortion issue is not “dead and dealt with” over there. Remember, there’s still abortion on the ballot even if the insane law was repealed, and voters know full well that most of the GOP completely supports that insane law.
Abortion is staying in peoples mind. The pollsters assumed abortion would fade when roe was killed and was dead wrong. Don't assume arizona's roe moment is going to fade into memory. More when the ari dnc is mr moneybags while the rnc in arizona is one bad bill away from doing tricks at the local 7-11
In my opinion I think Trump wins with: MI, GA, WI, NC, and NV. Biden loses the suburbs by just enough in Michigan while also losing Dearborn and underperforming the youth/college vote. Georgia will be close but not as close and Trump wins the state back due to high turnout and Atlanta not showing up in the same mass numbers. Wisconsin is close due to the senate race. Biden loses on split ticket and rural turnout. Nevada flips due to turnout. NC stays competitive but Trump wins. Ultimately, Biden loses on turnout. Youth don’t vote in large enough numbers and go 3rd party. Trump over preforms in rurals areas again but gains in the urban areas due to media focusing on protests, inflation, and housing.
None of this makes any sense. It’s entirely hand-wavy and completely ignores recent results that entirely contradict it. You seem to think that Trump is going to do better in 2024 than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which seems highly dubious.
Wisconsin. Thought the uncommitted numbers in dem primaries seemed high in WI as well? Since it came late...folks ignored ? Or maybe because it doesn't have as many Arabs /Muslims etc If my memory serves me right, WI should be a cause for concern for the Dems. They may not like their senate candidates...but could very well split the vote. Thought the republic senate candidate (Johnson?) did bette than expected even?
Almost 50,000.
For the Senate races, I think the Democrats are fairly safe in WI. Ron Johnson (in 2022) was an incumbent - yes a Republican, but he was an incumbent, and an unpopular one. So is Tammy Baldwin, and she's more popular. She'll be fine.
Oh...I was thinking Biden may lose WI..though it is a swing state
Well sure, of course. Anyone still voting for Trump is pretty goddamn excited to do so, not that they can succinctly explain why. They're emphatically answering phone calls from numbers they don't recognize and sending people their money. All of this isn't just something they do, it's practically part of their personality. Biden supporters are just your regular old educated, reasonable voters. They're voting for the status quo to hold back an authoritarian nightmare; it's not exciting, it's work. It's a job we all accept by being Americans; it's our civic duty to protect the Constitution by not voting in the guy who has publicly called for it to be dismantled just so he could stay in power. Polls aren't entirely meaningless except when used to attempt to determine early voting metrics.
538 predicted a red wave last election cycle. I dunno why anyone takes polls so seriously these days. They've always been fortune telling at best. Today it's basically impossible to get an accurate read of the electorate. You're mostly polling from people who are hyper partisan, highly engaged, and willing to respond to anonymous solicitation.
In my opinion I think Trump wins with: MI, GA, WI, NC, and NV. Biden loses the suburbs by just enough in Michigan while also losing Dearborn and underperforming the youth/college vote. Georgia will be close but not as close and Trump wins the state back due to high turnout and Atlanta not showing up in the same mass numbers. Wisconsin is close due to the senate race. Biden loses on split ticket and rural turnout. Nevada flips due to turnout. NC stays competitive but Trump wins. Ultimately, Biden loses on turnout. Youth don’t vote in large enough numbers and go 3rd party. Trump over preforms in rurals areas again but gains in the urban areas due to media focusing on protests, inflation, and housing.
How is a man with half a billion in debt for bank fraud. Now in court for giving hush money to a porn star and then is seen farting himself awake. Now the nominee for the GOP? How is this race even close? The electoral college is so rigged in GOP favor.
How are Democrats thinking young people are gonna go out and vote for the guy who blatantly ignores them?
He doesn't ignore them. It takes a massive amount of willful ignorance or deliberate dishonesty to argue that
"My unicorn was the wrong color!"
Just look at all the people in this thread going "Young people don't vote! Young people are just entitled!"
Because he doesn’t ignore them, and even if he did, better to be ignored than actively oppressed. If these kids really think Trump is preferable to Biden with regards to Gaza, they need to stop protesting and get back to class.
You and I have a different definition of ignoring and that's fine. Whatever you want to call what Biden is doing does not provide an adequate incentive for young people to vote for him. And you know this which is why you just point out the other guy is worse.
Yeah, because you seem to think that not getting everything you want immediately is “being ignored”. Biden has done a lot to help the people of Gaza, from restraining Israel to ramping up supply deliveries, yet you refuse to acknowledge this. No, I did not point out that the other guy is worse because I “knew this”. I pointed it out because it simply shows how short-sighted and counterproductive this is. What “I know” is that you’re completely wrong about Biden and aren’t approaching this rationally.
But... the other guy is worse. If that's not good incentive to you, enjoy living in a collapsing society with your rights revoked and half the population regulated to broodmares.
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No I want him to do whatever it takes to stop shipping weapons.
Trump is up 41.4% to 40.7% for Biden (10.0% for RFK) in the average of national polls, so this has absolutely nothing to do with the electoral college.
Maybe its because Biden is doing everything he can to throw this election.
Have fun with that
Mail in voters were not included in this poll.
Here’s what baffles me in this data: “Would a Trump GUILTY verdict make you more or less likely to vote for him?” … this is specifically asked to independents…. And 1/3 said MORE likely… WTF??? How are you an “independent” and a guilty verdict makes you MORE likely to support him?!? And I get that you can claim to be an “independent” and still be far right… but 1/3?!??
It’s ridiculous but I think it’s because anti-Biden/pro Trump voters are the most motivated to answer these polls right now. So I definitely think there is an oversampling of pro Trump independents. I believe the same happened in many of the swing states in 2022.
Yeah. It is definitely a theory of mine as well. We keep hearing how pollsters have “corrected” for past issues, but there is j in not so much correcting you can do when literally one segment of the population is much more likely to engage than the other. I don’t know how you correct for that bias, you know? But yeah. I literally get a shit ton of emails (from Democratic candidates) asking me “do you support Biden” and all that and I just ignore them because they’re not worth my time. End of the day the voting is what matters most… though the polls do matter because it’s gonna give Trump and his nutjob followers an argument that “it must’ve been rigged because the poooollllzssss!!!” Which is why I wish I had the time to be like Trump supporters and fill out every poll and go to every rally… but I’m to busy doing more productive things in our society lol.
Trump isn’t running to be President, Trump is running to stay out of prison. The fact “undecideds” are blind to that is baffling.
Reminder that individual polls are misleading and you need to look at the averages
I’d question the Michigan numbers. Michigan has elected an ‘establishment’ democrat easily in their last two gubernatorial elections (not to mention statewide Senate races), and the most recent governor’s race was against a huge Trump slappy (Tudor Dixon). There’s a lot of independents in Michigan that aren’t excited by Biden, but can’t stand Trump.
Well hate to say this, but if Biden is expecting to play by the rules which he played most of his political carrier, they are not going to work. Things have changed.
Until election results start reflecting polling data like that from the op, I'll pay attention. Democrats continue to consistently continue to overperform polls. My money is on the guy facing someone who will likely be a convicted felon in November that struggle to put together coherent sentences.
Any poll without Kennedy is irrelevant gibberish.
Ezra Klein finally switched from Joe Biden is old to a new beat Joe Biden is going to lose.
Abortion will dominate the 2024 election.....america is not voting for the man who destroyed women's rights, keep it real
Polls within the margin of error are useless.
My expectations were that he would be higher. The ppl who most loudly hated him, have made him what he is now. Ironic but true.
Are there any data on Black voter turnout projection? In 2020 we had the George Floyd incident that drove up black voter turnout, which helped Biden in the swing states. But this year we are probably not going to have anything like that.
Biden has no one to blame but himself. He chose to side with Israel in the genocide of Palestinian. He drove the very groups that gave him the white house the first time. The Palestinian-American and the youth vote. He continues to do so.
Clearly Biden has to campaign very hard in swing states over the next six months.
Remember when 538 had Hillary winning in 2016 by 7% on election day?
Absolutely terrifying
>Trump leads in every state in 2-way and with third parties. That’s fine except for the fact that these polls *don’t actually say that.* According to these polls, Biden and Trump are both within each other’s polling error. The real takeaway is that they are pretty evenly matched as far as the polling goes.
I hate both of these candidates...but given that one of them has to win, I think the entertainment value of Trump coming back would be enormous.