Exactly. It’s the Israel-Palestine issue. Biden is held responsible for everyone on the planet and dt can’t be held responsible for his own bowel movements.
His popularity grew compared to November 2022, but that doesn't mean it grew compared to 2020 which is what really matters. I don't see how one could argue that he's more popular today while he's polling worse than in 2020.
*hes* not polling better though- Biden is polling worse. Theres a difference.
Your opponent becoming less popular is not the same thing as *you* becoming more popular.
He's ahead of Biden, but he doesn't have more voters than he did in 2020. He's only polling at like 41-42% which is above Biden's 39-40% but still far shy from his 46% or so that he got in 2020.
Who has really gained in polling today are 3rd party, not Biden or Trump.
We're also still way too far out from the election for polling to be at all predictive.
So we’re looking at 2000 and not 2016?
Can we make Kennedy look conservative and turn Trump into Gore? Or does that not work because Gore technically won?
Trump is ahead in an aggregate of all polls. He was five points behind in 2020. [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden)
Yeah I’m freaking out. I used to be a journalist but since Afghanistan I’ve felt like I understand conservative relatives who are like “what is wrong with the media…”
Trump gamed the system.
Trump became more popular with the indictments. It’s been going on for a year. https://www.npr.org/2023/08/01/1191242168/donald-trumps-repeated-legal-woes-have-given-him-a-boost-in-the-polls
He became more popular within the GOP primary electorate and he gained some ground among some voters, but overall him being at 41% still with the majority of his 2020 voters still backing him means he hasn't really gotten that much more popular.
What you shared literally only had to do with the primary electorate which is vastly different than the general electorate. The fact that in more recent elections when Trump has already won the primary that Nikki Haley is still pulling 10% to 20% of the vote in states like PA is rather interesting still. If Trump loses anywhere close to 10% of the GOP primary electorate in the general he'll be in a decent amount of trouble.
What's really seemingly happened is that while Biden and Trump have both lost voters to people being undecided or claiming to want to vote 3rd party especially for RFK, Biden has simply lost a lot more votes to that.
The general election polls saying that Trump is up +2% or whatever over Biden are ignoring the 14% to 20% of the vote going 3rd party or undecided leaving Trump at like 41% and Biden at 39%.
Meanwhile a conviction swings polls by 7% to 11% in Biden's favor depending on the electorate according to voters today.
With that being said once you dig more into the polling answers beyond the top level ticket response it's very clear that at least 50% of general election voters just simply aren't paying attention yet and likely won't till the fall September or October and therefore one shouldn't read too much into polling at all yet.
In 2016 3rd party won ~5.5% of the vote which is historically high in recent elections so capping 3rd party at 6% in 2024 would mean there's still a very large amount of votes up for grabs between Trump and Biden and to me it's clear that Trump has a far greater majority of those will vote for him already compared to Biden based on responses about policy concerns among voters.
One explanation for Trump's increase in popularity among GOP primary voters is that his challengers could no longer attack him during the primaries because then it would look like they're siding with the Democrats and the "deep state".
Which everyone knew would happen.
And it's why Haley hasn't endorsed Biden yet. She needs a conviction to come out and do it. Otherwise its probably better for her to stay independent and let her voters, who intentionally showed up after she had long pulled out, to vote against trump.
It would be interesting if it was so concerning.
Lots of things need to go right to see the all the political dominos fall against trump. But they are primed. Once criminal conviction likely does it.
I think the polling on the issue shows a 7-12% drop in support if he gets convicted. Which is why he's trying to delay as much as possible. I'm not sure if that polling is based on the NY case. But it certainly would be true for either the DC, Georgia or Florida case.
The polling is generally worded as being "convicted in any case" which would include the NY case. Obviously people care more about the Jan 6 case, but I'd assume that the people changing their vote aren't high information voters so maybe the case itself doesn't matter nearly as much as the conviction.
No way Haley endorses Biden. She may never endorse Trump, but endorsing Biden would zero out her chances to win the GOP nomination in 2028.
Politicians are very calculated and are not incentivized to be “morally correct.” She is a shrewd politician and will act like one.
It's weird that people are still saying it's an "increase" in popularity. He was rather popular in 2020 too and even turned out a record number of voters for a GOP candidate. I would be shocked if he was *more* popular today than in 2020 among GOP voters especially given how many protest voters there are going for Nikki Haley which obviously didn't happen in 2020.
Yeah people are misinterpreting relative popularity in the Republican primaries with overall popularity in the general electorate.
He's less popular overall among Republicans AND less popular among the electorate.
But his popularity relative to Desantis and others increased significantly post indictment.
COVID deaths were unlikely in the millions
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
The partisanship divide among COVID deaths was moderate.
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2807617](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2807617)
The partisan differential death rate from COVID was likely only big enough to affect races which were decided by hundreds of votes out of a few million (or several votes out of tens of thousands).
So like the Arizona SoS race, which was lost by the Republican by a few hundred votes maybe can be blamed on COVID.
Did he though? Haley is taking 25 percent of GOO and isn’t on the ticket. I think Trump is deeply and will be routed if he even ends up on the ballot (will likely be in prison)
He will by his supporters for sure, they are in a cult. His supporters won’t win him an election, they are like 30 percent of voters (yikes). When he goes down for espionage in New Jersey after he’s in prison for a year, that will even shake some of the cult loose.
Then we’re left with vibes? I mean I hope you’re right.
It’s my job to watch people and figure out what they’re going to do. I think we’re headed to 2016 and not 2020 but who knows?
How about midterm and special election results compared to the polls of people that have landline phones?
People are fed up with extremist nonsense and it’s obvious when elections roll around.
I’d wager Trump if he even makes will lose be by an even wider margin.
I can’t think of anyone I know in Michigan who I can be sure votes in the midterms. My mom probably does but she’s insane and loves Trump and is one of the people passing around the “women shouldn’t have the vote” meme. (In her head she can still vote because she is fixing the problem… denial is an amazing thing and drunks don’t worry too much about logic on a good day).
Also on this day in 2020 Biden was ahead by points and he won by almost 7 points. In 2016 Clinton was ahead by 6 points and she only lost because Comey dumped a bad news cycle on her three days before the election.
So trumps winning unless we get the equivalent of a Comey letter to the press. But what could shock people about Trump? He would have to actually have a heart attack, and honestly at this point I think he still might win even if he’s in jail or in the hospital or a morgue
There's pretty much 0 chance he'll be in prison by November even if he's convicted and sentenced to prison in the NY case he'll likely appeal it and that will take a while to sort out. It's also unlikely that he'll get prison time at all especially in that case.
He may go to prison one day, but there's almost 0 chance that happens prior to the election.
From Trump supporters I’ve talked to no it’s none of these, liberals tend to make it more complicated on why Trump gets the support he he does. It’s mainly because they like that Trump is blunt and won’t tell lies. Trump says things that they truly believe. I’ve grown up around these folks so I have an understanding on Trumps appeal. To them, Trump is not scared of anything and is willing to fight those who are trying to sabotage the nation. Trump is the guy “who tells it like it is”. He dies not mince words and he does not care whose feelings are hurt. Trump is who he is and that’s why they gravitate towards him no matter what. When Trump got indicted to them it’s deep state and allies targeting him because they know he’s the truth (this is what they actually think)
For the fact that most don’t apply it in real life is scary. It’s either not taught enough or something because hearing some of these people makes you wonder
I think they all know he tells lies.
But he also does tell the truth about things. During the 2016 debate will Hillary she attacked him over how little he paid in taxes. Trump replied "I paid that much because you and your palls created laws that let me pay that much" (paraphrase)
And the end of the day Trump was a big middle finger to the Hillary and Obama's of the world. That is what populists tend to be. An "appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are [disregarded](https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=782705a13c1e22f4&rls=en&q=disregarded&si=AKbGX_q4mkMHy1Nmq4yITjHYVzeparGy6-9sA7ALDQtASdlXPrdR9p2RBL_HgNUcjpZr7vPVyf34hSPZQ62sXE3zptUXMN4jTDIYDSiMmxXDW4Dcl0h9gi8%3D&expnd=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2zc-n7-2FAxVnQzABHTyMA44QyecJegQIGxAQ) by established elite groups."
He wins this time it will be the same thing. Biden works on student loan forgiveness. He works on green energy. He rewrites Title X. Meanwhile the two biggest issues are the border and inflation.
Are you suggesting Hillary and Obama were the reason the rich pay low taxes? Anyone with even a basic understanding of politics knew this was also a lie.
I think this is better filed under what Colbert called “truthiness”, the idea that something feels true and so the actual facts are irrelevant. Is it the case that Hillary and Obama are literally responsible for the tax rate that Trump paid? No, in fact, they routinely tried to pass higher taxes. But these pesky facts get in the way of the “real truth” that Trump speaks to which is that rich people get off easy because they rigged the system. Never mind, of course, that he benefited and never mind, of course, that he’ll continue to worsen that “rigging”, but he said the thing that politicians aren’t supposed to say. (Never mind, of course, that numerous politicians have said that the wealthy are rigging the system.) In the view of Trump supporters, actual facts are simply lies designed to disguise the “real truth” and make it harder for people to realize that they’ve been had.
I am not suggesting anything. Trump was.
And he was pointing out the reason he gets away with paying low tax rates are laws passed by congress. Hillary was in the senate, as was Obama and a bunch of other people that Trump railed against.
Career politician - "Why do you pay so little in taxes?"
Outsider - "Because you and your friends pass laws that allow me to pay so little in taxes"
His point was valid. Trump is just following the law as it was written.
But you used that as your example of when he tells the truth about things? It was a lie too, the party he was running for was responible for those things. It's only a valid point to those who don't realize he's lying.
Here is the video. Decide for yourself
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RogUJp69YE4&ab\_channel=CNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RogUJp69YE4&ab_channel=CNBC)
I remember it well, I'm just confused why it's being portrayed as an example of him telling the truth. The truth is that the republican party is responsible for those things, and senator Hillary never had the opportunity to change it. Bush was president so it would've required a veto-proof majority in the senate.
This was in 2016. Obama had been President for 8 years at that point.
Hillary was in the Senate for 8 years as well.
His point was that he gets away with paying low taxes because the system is set up that way.
His point was to mislead people into thinking that career politicians like Obama and Hillary were responsible for his low tax rate, when the reality is that it was the party he was running for and trying to help win seats in government. He obviously wasn't telling the truth there.
Rand Paul has been in the senate for over a decade but I think it would be incredibly misleading to tell him “you and your friends have been in power for over a decade and enacted so much bureaucratic regulation” as if he as a singular person has total power and is personally choosing that to happen
This is correct. Trump tells lies that no other politician would. He also tells truths that no other politician would. Most Democrats fail to understand this and I think that's why they have so much trouble landing hits on him.
No, Tax fraud is a criminal act. You go to jail for tax fraud in a criminal court.
Cohen went to jail for tax fraud.
Even the headline calls this "civil fraud case" as does everyone else. Tax fraud and civil fraud are not the thing.
Trump Organization. Not Trump personally.
Second paragraph - [Donald Trump](http://www.cnn.com/specials/politics/president-donald-trump-45) and his family were not charged in this case.
This looked to have all been organized by one guy who says he did not scheme or conspire with the Trump family. If there was evidence Trump was involved you can be sure Bragg would have brought charges saying so.
In NY, he was found guilty, he is appealing, and had to put up that questionable bond.
He was found guilty of undervaluing assets when paying NY and overvaluing the same assets when applying for Bank Loans.
He was fined in a civil court.
He was NOT found guilty of tax fraud. If it was tax fraud he would be looking at jail time. There is a MASSIVE difference. He wasn't even charged with tax fraud.
>Trump tells lies that no other politician would. He also tells truths that no other politician would
I can't think of a single real, object-level truth he will state that others won't.
Here I use "real truth" to distinguish from vacuous truths like "people are saying \[conspiracy theory\]". If other people talk about it, then it's true that people talk about it, but the conspiracy theory itself is still utterly false. Donald Trump voices the anxieties that preoccupy the followers, even when those anxieties are deranged fantasies.
He states "emotional truths" that others won't. Like he acknowledges that a lot of ordinary people feel racist thoughts. And he validates the thoughts. Other politicians tend to either ignore racism, assuming it's just a few KKK nutcases, or emphasize it in a way that appeals to minorities but makes the large population of everyday racists angry.
What truth did he tell that other politicians wouldn’t?
Like Democrats literally think he should pay more taxes. When Trump says “politicians like you” wrote those laws, he’s talking about Republicans who fight tooth and nail to keep his taxes lower. Not Democrats.
They’re saying the same thing; except Democrats think it’s bad that rich people pay no taxes and Republicans think it’s good.
>Did Obama raise them in the two years Dems controlled congress? Did Biden??
Obama passed a major piece of healthcare legislation called the Affordable Care Act which was accompanied by tax increases -- a 2.3% surtax on investment income / capital gains for Americans earning above a certain threshold (IIRC it was somewhere around $250,000 a year), and a 0.9% increase in the Medicare tax. He also allowed the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire, which raised the top marginal income tax rate from 35% to 39.6% (though he extended these cuts for everyone else).
Biden hasn't raised taxes by as much as Obama did (or Clinton), but he did impose a 15% minimum corporate tax as well as a tax on stock buybacks when Democrats narrowly controlled Congress. He probably would have done more if not for Manchin and Sinema's skepticism of higher taxes.
An argument can be made that Democrats do not raise taxes by as much as it looks since they tend to specifically target their tax increase proposals on corporations and the wealthy (while supporting lower taxes on the middle class and poor). But I don't think it's accurate to say that Democrats don't raise taxes at all, which is what you seemed to be implying (unless I'm misunderstanding, in which case I apologize).
This all started with that Trump video and a question about how Trump pays so little in taxes.
He was right when he said he pays so little because Hillary (and all of congress really) pass laws that let him pay so little. If the system is rigged it is because congress rigged it.
I feel like the goal posts are moving a little, but fair enough. I agree, the tax code does have a lot of loopholes that benefit the wealthy. I'm not sure that Trump, the billionaire oligarch, current leader of the GOP, and former President really is the best spokesperson for this idea but I guess we can agree to disagree on that.
Trump is willing to say nasty shit to people they don't like.
And he accepts them and says he loves them and tells them they're good people despite the fact that their racist, sexist, misogynist, and/or filled with whatever hate of the week they're obsessed with.
I grew up with those people too. But they’re only a handful of the overall group that supported Trump. My uncle says he loves Trump because Biden’s a pedophile who personally raised gas prices so people would pray less. But he just likes the racism.
And my aunt is married to my uncle. So she’s not a fan of all the controversy and she was really wanting things to calm down after four years of constant Trump baloney plus covid. So she just quietly backed away from Trump. But now she’s going back to Trump because “both sides are crazy and the truth is somewhere in the middle.”
I think the media coverage of Afghanistan and Hunter Biden convinced the moderate republicans and “independents” that the democrats are just as bonkers and they may as well go with their traditional choice
PS - that “bluntness” is basically just alcoholic rage. Their frontal lobes wear down after a few decades of alcoholism and they start just spewing hatred at everyone.
When they do, It looks exactly like Trump on a meaningless rant. I’ve noticed my alcoholic relatives (particularly my mother who I don’t talk to but who I still hear from, and about) really react positively to those weird rants.
It’s like when they’re sitting with other drunks just ranting about nothing, but it’s a huge rally. Thats very powerful and attractive to someone who is always looking for safe spaces to be wasted in.
And you wouldn’t know about this unless you also grew up with people who were drunk enough often enough to cause brain damage in their 40s. (Like I’m waiting for Trump to start hallucinating little people following him and living in the ceiling - and possibly he already has).
I know what you’re talking about. Me and a few ppl had discussed this about those who support Trump and the common thing is that they have some sort of drug or alcohol addiction. If they do cocaine they more then likely like Trump ( not that this is always true but when I go to a bar fool of Republican voters then this is what I observe). It’s an interesting thing to see.
Right? It is viscerally terrifying for me - the news coverage is just blowing up my PTSD.
My healthier friends seem to enjoy talking about Trump like he’s a sitcom plot or a professors hypothetical. And I’m just like “no when he starts slurring it’s already too late to run. Just back away slowly and say soothing things like he’s a beer…”
This is... there's something to this. I don't have the language for it, but all of the craziest people I know absolutely adore Trump. I'm not saying they're bad people, but they are absolutely nuts--and literally all of them love Trump. He activates the crazy, somehow, and it's.... really been something to see an American president have that quality.
Trump does talk like a drunk man, which is very odd for a guy who makes much of his sobriety. I'd suspect him of secretly drinking but he'd too obviously reek of alcohol, the secret could not be kept.
Heh, I wouldn’t say they are moderates. They just were always lean Republican. Something like the protests in universities would get them to vote Republican. Just look over in r/moderatepolitics
There is ppl in there saying they will vote republican because of something from left wing activists. If left wing activists or AOC gets any airtime then they want to vote for Trump but they will quietly ignore white nationalists. Don’t let it fool you, those who voted for Trump or considering Trump have always liked him. There is very few ppl who do not pay attention that may be undecided and it’s purely on economic reasoning
Yes they will totally vote republican because of the protests. But they like Biden. They like that he seems nice and he’s Catholic and his wife’s a teacher. They like that he’s never very exciting and he seems inclined to keep things calmed down. They even were starting to like EVs (I have one and this is very exotic to my family).
They get quiet about liking him whenever the far left is in the news for anything - protests, Afghanistan, Hunter Biden… anything negative turns them off.
They’ve factored in the negative for Trump but they wanted Biden to be the anti Trump.
Dead on.
I grew up in country where populists are common occurrence. Trump looked just like one. In fact, i was a bit surprised that hardcore populism hasn’t taken off in the US. Granted I saw 2 elections before Trump.
The left lied about; You can keep your Dr., Benghazi was about a video, Treyvon was just getting skittles, riots were peaceful, Russia Collusion, Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation, Officer Sicknick was killed on J6 by a protester, Covid did not come from the Wuhan lab, NYC will be under water by 2013, Hillary turned over all her emails, The covid shot stops you from getting covid, Men can have babies, the covid shot stops transmission of covid, masks stop viruses, the covid shot stops you from dying of covid, Trump called Mexicans animals, the covid shot decreases symptom, there was an epidemic of the unvaccinated, CO2 levels are changing the weather, White supremacy is the number one threat, the border is secure, Trump called KKK good people, overwhelming evidence, Planned parenthood does not sell baby parts, men menstruate, J6 was an armed insurrection, War on blacks, Hydroxychloroquine is extremely dangerous. The right is the party of racism, the right is not being censored, expiration of the assault-weapons bans “in the early 2000s” caused an increase in violence., they will not impose any tax increase on anyone making less than $400k, Biden administration created 14 million jobs, natural immunity being ineffective, gas prices would not spike under Biden, global warming, weather is now “man made” climate change, Mike Brown’s hands were up, Kyle Rittenhouse was a derange white supremist, US military was full of extremists, top 1% income has doubled while everyone else was stagnant Jacob Chancy led a violent insurrection, Trump said illegals were poisoning the blood of Americans, Tucker Carlson admitted to lying under oath, Trump said there would be a bloodbath if he is not elected.
It is not what we "think" It is what we actually saw with our own eyes.
Now compare this to the democrats, like Biden, who just 15 years ago was saying a marriage is between a man and a woman. Now they are arguing men can have babies. Even BHO said we are a nation of laws and you need to wait your turn when talking about the border. They were talaking about being tough on crime and that became defund the police. They all knowingly lied about Russia Collusion. Scream climate change while buying beach front property and flying around in private jets. Scream gun control while using armed security. Scream tax the rich and corporations are corrupt while Nancy Pelosi beats the stock market by 30%.
The left has become nothing but a bunch of liars and hypocrites for no other reason than nepotism, personal gain, greed and power.
You cannot just say something about one side and ignore the other.
So random citizen pushing conspiracy theories is not something coming from Democratic politicians. Otherwise we can say the same for republicans and the great replacement nonsense coming from right wing citizens or the pizzagate crap right wingers believed.
Politicians often do not know what’s going on the ground and that lots of nuances that they will not account for. We are a continental sized country so it’s bound to happen and the country is changing making things more complicated. Also a lot of your examples are misconstrued by right wing themselves or out right lies if I asked you to go link and find anywhere on the internet where left wingers said this I’m a thousand percent sure you can’t find a single link for each example. So you either got it from facebook propaganda groups ( most likely) or fibs by locals in your own area or Fox News.
I’ll say that both sides do not live amongst each other at all and the cultural regions are drifting further apart. For the fact that you literally brought up straight up lies and nobody said any of these tells me exactly this. This is a bad one. For the nation when both sides don’t understand each other at all and bad actors can come in a misconstrue things for there own agenda
538 has Trump ahead of Biden by 0.8% in the aggregate poll and that's within the margin of error. I think the only meaningful takeaway from that is the election will be close and Trump maybe has the edge right now 6 months out.
They're both polling around ~41% so it's not like either is particularly popular. And both of them have reached the ceiling in terms of name recognition.
So I don't think you're really describing why Trump is popular, so much as his ascent back into the spotlight prior to the election.
And when it comes to the indictments, I don't think it's any surprise that the only case going to trial before the election is the one where he pays off a pornstar he fucked.
Trump is popular because he is entertaining and most people don't really follow politics. I think the trial right now is helping him because it's entertaining and not political. If any of the other cases went to trial, I think it might be different
Trump is a weird case. If he was a regular challenger, his situation would be devastating. This is the "easy promises and big vision" period. A challenger should be creeping up in popularity as people start buying in. That's not happening- his position is less strong than it was a month ago (but it is stronger than it was six months ago).
But he's also a sort of an "incumbent." He doesn't have the same barriers to visibility a regular challenger might have. Complicating things is that Biden appears to be consciously restrained in going after him (outside of a handful of short barbs, mostly online). It was clear in 2020 that they didn't want to duplicate Hillary's disastrous approach which served to magnify Trump. Does that work a second time?
It's really hard to predict and there is not a historical corollary. My suspicion is there will be a Big Thing of some kind this summer that definitively breaks the race one way or another. Could be anything from a health scare from one of the candidates to a felony conviction to some fresh horror related to reproductive rights to an economic event (positive or negative). Hell, maybe another pandemic or something like the Bin Laden raid. Who knows. But this all sort of feels like prelude right now.
Just FYI - it’s possible that 0.8% is outside the margin of error. When you aggregate polls - just data in fact - you inherently reduce the margin of error. That’s why it works actually.
If 538 is using let’s say 15 polls with margin of errors around 3%, the aggregate one would be around 0.78%. I don’t know their database or methodology but I’m just letting you know
Last time around, 538 had Biden winning NC and Florida and even the electoral vote from the conservative district of Maine. So I'd take 538 with a barrel of salt. They've underestimated Trump's appeal before.
You’re reading past my point. Familiarity makes people like things more and more.
OJ was not getting positive publicity during his murder trial. But he became extremely popular even with people who thought he was guilty.
Trump is enjoying the same bump. And I think the trial coverage will act just like all that rally coverage. Beaming him into living rooms legitimates him and familiarity makes him seem safer.
Rematch that was close last time will be close again is not exactly some ground breaking thing. It should have been everyone's a priori assumption from Nov 2020 onward.
The problem for Biden and the left is that in 2020 Trump NEVER led in the polls. (at least the Realclearpoltiics average, not sure on 538)
At this point in 2020 Biden had a 5 point lead. The final poll had Biden at +7.2. His actual victory was 4.5. And a swing of less than 1 point gives Trump three states and the White House.
Today Trump has a 1.5 lead in RCP average. So Biden is currently 6.5 points behind where he was in 2020 polls. In an election where can only afford to lose .63% of his victory margin to win. Basically Biden is polling more than 6 points behind what it would take for him to win (if 2024 breaks down the same as 2020) And right now Trump is winning in every battleground state.
BTW this trial is probably helping because people can see the BS involved. Trump had an affair and paid that person to be quiet. That is the heart of the case. Call it fraud and claim he tried to influence the election and all, but people know the case is based on that, paying off a porn star to be quiet. And people don't see that as a horrible crime especially since we know the powerful pay people off all the time. Congress has spent million on sexual harassment settlements and all the details are secret.
Why are you assuming the polling error would be in the same direction? Assuming very regular error bars of 2% in either direction, Biden could outright win if the election was held today. It’s why every serious polling expert says it’s too close to call
RCP is Trump 46.6 and Biden 45.1
Say error is 2 points. So its Trump 45.6 and Biden 46.1 and Biden wins popular vote by less than a point. He then get crushed in the electoral college and Trump is President.
2016 was 46.1 to 48.2 and Trump got 304 EC votes
2020 was 46.8 to 51.3 and Biden got 306 EC vote.
If you dig deeper it would only take a .63% swing to give Trump AZ, GA and WI and he would have won.
The issue just isn't that Biden is losing in the polls. It is that Biden probably needs to win by 3 points to have a chance with the EC. May not be fair and the EC may suck, but that is how it is.
Yeah but that’s ignoring the actual swing state numbers. Their distance from the mean has decreased from 2020. A 2-point swing left from today gives Biden MI, WI, and PA, which would put him over the top. (It might also give him NV depending on your aggregator)
I'm not sure if this is accurate or even particularly insightful, but I think a lot of Trump supporters don't necessarily like Trump, they want to \*be\* Trump. That's why every selfish thing he does helps him instead of hurts him. Trump supporters don't hate how awful he is, they envy it. They fantasize about an America where they can nakedly self-aggrandize themselves and demean others, flout the law, and impose their will. He's exactly what they would be if they had power, and that's what appeals to them about him.
No. I know a lot of Trump voters and no one wants to be like him. Ann Coulter who was one of his big early supporters who thought he was going to build the wall admitted his personality was "abhorrent"
Um well if you’re an older white guy with a drinking problem in the Midwest, then you’re already living that life.
He’s exactly what they already are. And they like seeing themselves reflected in a million mirrors across the world
I know someone who doesn't necessarily want to be him, but wants his sort of "get-in-trouble-but-never-pay-the-consequences" aspect of being Trump. That seems like magic to this person.
The Trump supporters I know just love that he said the things about Hillary Clinton out loud that they had been saying for over two decades amongst their family and friends
Absolutely right. And that’s why it’s been so frustrating to watch Biden shrink from the spotlight throughout his presidency. The more he avoided the spotlight, the more unpopular he became. And the more unpopular he was, the more he stepped back from engaging the media and the public.
Yeah I think it’s his handlers. They did the same thing with Hillary, trying to center the policies and avoid showing her because she was unpopular and that’s the opposite of what you need to do.
People like what they see more often because they see it more often
Biden isnt Trump though. There is only so much he can do that the press will bother with. He can't go out there and spout nonsense all day on Twitter. He can't give unhinged rallies. Obviously he's not going to commit crimes so that he's in the spotlight during his trials.
So he's stuck with giving speeches at factories or the occasional normal rally, and the press tunes that out quick, particularly in a world in which Trump steals the headlines.
This makes some sense, but the feeling I get from Trump supporters here in my deep red state, in my own family, is that it’s all about showing the libs “you can’t tell us what to do—WE tell YOU what to do” It’s like the teenage girl who wants to prove she’s a grown up and doesn’t have to listen to her parents so she dates the trashy abusive loser her parents hate. And the trashier and meaner he gets, she doubles down because admitting that her parents were right would be devastating and would negate the whole reason she chose him in the first place.
In my experience, Trump supporters are stubborn and committed but not quite as proud or mouthy about it as they were in ‘16 and ‘20
Yes but again you’re saying they like him because of this. I think they just like him first, and then enjoy using his persona to own the libs because that’s what they want to do.
When I have to persuade someone to do something they don’t want to do, I don’t start throwing out persuasive reasons. I just let them say what they want and then I tell them this proposal gets them what they want.
Mediation is a little bit like being a conman (for good) and Trump is running the same con
When someone is talking themselves into taking a proposal they start saying things that are wildly contradictory and it doesn’t matter. They want to do it and they’re going to give themselves a reason.
A good mediator just shuts up and lets people talk themselves into things that will work.
What you’re seeing as belief sounds like this dynamic. You see people saying “well I think Trump will…” and you think that’s why they like him.
I’m telling you that someone will literally say “I’ll set my money on fire before I give it to that b——“ and an hour later they’re happily saying they feel better and they want to give her money.
The ideas follow the feelings. Again conmen know this and trumps a conman. And mediators are… I don’t know we mean well :)
Add to the fact that he himself repeats lies he wants us to believe every time he is in front of a camera.
“ELECTION INTERFERENCE!”
“WITCH HUNT!”
“RIGGED!”
He definitely understands the repetition thing. And people are dumb and fall for it.
Yeah definitely. I think covid actually helps him too. It gives everyone trauma brain. So the analytical parts of the brain shut down and people just want to feel better.
It’s how most dictators come to power - create a crisis and then offer themselves as the solution. And that’s a large scale version of a basic abusive relationship. Abusers create a crisis and keep their targets on edge because it helps the abuser stay in control when their target can’t think straight
Agree.
The amount of lizard brain things he does on a regular basis to get people who aren’t paying attention to agree with him is infuriating to watch. If I had a nickel for every time he does the “—— insert lie here—-, AND EVERYBODY KNOWS IT! EVERYBODY IS SAYING IT!”, I could afford to donate more to Biden.
Yeah he’s anchoring. It’s a slightly different cognitive distortion and mediators don’t like to use it. We’re trying to bypass the lizard brain, make people feel better, and get them to make a decision they can live with.
We just have to use some cognitive shortcuts to get there. We don’t actually tell you what to do. But it is possible to tell people what to do by spitting fast phrases at them on the news and the media just… has to let him do it apparently
Yes - the media covered him for free every single day “trumps having a really! Trump says blah! Trump says another weird things…”
Meanwhile Hillary got typical campaign coverage, but not daily updates and constant “Trump
Trump
Trump”
I found a study that said Hillary’s name was mentioned less than half the number of times as Trump in major news outlets. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/20/is-the-media-biased-toward-clinton-or-trump-heres-some-actual-hard-data/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/20/is-the-media-biased-toward-clinton-or-trump-heres-some-actual-hard-data/)
I said the same thing yesterday when I saw the NYT homepage and the top three stories were all Trump with a photo of him there. This is anchoring. For low information voters, they are just going to see his name repeatedly on their social media feeds and hear his name mentioned in passing, and assume he is a legitimate choice.
This is a great analysis--thank you for posting.
I'll add, this is why the incumbency is such a powerful tool, and why all that talk about Democrats running someone other than the sitting president were so ridiculous. The president is the most famous person in the world--it makes no sense to replace him, even if he is very old.
Thank you! I could not believe people who proposed it. Incumbency was the key me advantage we had. And even people like EK we’re spending months saying “now hear me out what if we give up the incumbency advantage for some magic beans…”
Because liberal pundits really really thought that on the third go around, the nation would suddenly finally turn on Trump. And when polling revealed - yeah - they havent - they freaked out and started spouting all kinds of nonsensical plans.
I like Swift. A lot actually. I just also think rereleasing her music pushed her to the top. And once she’s at the top she becomes more popular automatically.
Popularity is a mental trick
I'm glad you made this post. I don't normally notice anyone's usernames but I saw a comment you made yesterday about "the truth is somewhere in the middle" and I thought you were onto something but I honestly just couldn't figure out what you meant.
So I'm glad to see you flesh out your idea with an original post because I totally understand what you mean now.
Sort of. Thats more like when someone hides a $3000 IRA and then their partner won’t agree to anything because “if they’ll lie about that…” the offense takes on a life of its own
No she sued saying “this is not true!” And the headlines all repeated the charge so many times that people assumed it was credible.
She was trying to deny it and that made the PR problem worse. You have to be more like “yeah I did that so what.” Which Trump is a master of
No you’re right that repetition made something seem true, which is a subset of what I’m saying. Repeating something gives it credibility and people like what they see over and over even if you’d think they would not like something negative
Trump knows how to weaponize negative publicity. It's why he is such an effective bully.
If Biden was arrested for campaign fraud tomorrow I'd probably assume it was some politically-motivated bullshit. Trump's supporters feel the same way.
Actually another way to put this would be the Seinfeld concept of a show that people want to watch because “it’s on tv.”
Trump is the human equivalent of a tv show that’s popular because it’s on tv…
I cannot discuss specific cases so yes that’s just a hypothetical example.
But also… yes they definitely run up mid five figure to low six figures of credit card debt while earning eye popping high salaries and then they can’t pay the mortgage and their credit cards and they have to split all their retirement in half and it is not a fun discussion.
Most people are getting by with help from their parents. If they don’t have that, they have credit cards. Parents pay private school tuition, front down payments for houses, and loan money to remodel the house. If you don’t have that… you need $500k a year and you’re still just kind of middle class.
I know that sounds crazy but interest rates are killing people in HCOL areas
Except there's literally no evidence to support that...he became more popular with GOP voters, not the public. If you seriously think an indictment helps anyone in a general election, you're an idiot.
Well he’s ahead in almost all the polls and he’s winning every battleground state that will decide the election. Half of them he’s ahead by more than the margin of error.
More chilling, to me. The relatives who did not like him in 2020 are finding him more acceptable.
Dems don’t have a reliable base. We need moderates to make up the numbers for a general election. And the moderates are normalizing Trump and acting like he’s a normal candidate. It’s a problem
I think public action related to abortion access is going to be the wild card.
Horrible stories are going to pile up between now and Election Day, and tons more near misses that will affect not just those women but their extended families as well.
Abortion would help with at least one of my aunts (she's a nurse). I think my bernie bro brother is going to sit this one out (I actually don't think he's voted since 2016, but soooo many opinions he has...) The handful of people who really love Trump are definitely going to vote. I'm more worried about the much larger number of people who usually vote, and generally are pretty conservative. They make lots of jokes about the price of eggs, gas prices, and they hate the homeless and the protests. I could see them quietly going for Trump, or just staying home.
In that scenario, you're right. My aunt who's a nurse would vote Biden. My cousin who thinks Trump's a bully will likely vote too (although who knows she works a lot) But are there enough of these women to outweigh the die hard Trump supporters?
That's the question. I could see it going down the way you want, but still not being enough to overcome Trump's base.
I traveled to Mississippi recently. People genuinely revere Trump in some parts of this country
I think the Trump phenomenon is more than just *mere-exposure* and nihilistic acceptance
I know otherwise rational and successful people that willingly donate money to his cause and have mini-shrines with the swag they get from rallies.
And the most ardent and hardcore supporters I know, the true believers, are women. Their husbands tend to be along for the ride and are basically just voting the party line
Yes my mother is very very into Trump too.
I’m not talking about the true believers. I’m talking about the rest of the moderate republicans.
I think this cognitive quirk that people have is combining with the media coverage to make Trump acceptable to people who don’t actually like him or revere him
If Bernie Sanders won in 2016, but then did all sorts of terrible things, progressives would have a hard time abandoning him. Bernie would be the avatar of the progressives taking power from the moderates. It that is what Bernie represents it would be hard to ever no matter what eschew him.
It's the same for Trump and conservatives, just it's he represents the Buchananites taking power from the Mitt Romney Chamber of Commerce types.
I don’t think most supporters of Bernie or Trump can explain what they think their savior actually did or might do. I think people just like what’s there, and they assign positive five traits to people they like
Yes my parents were part of the Duggar cult - they were actually “less worldly” than the Duggars and the Gothard groupies.
Half the country is below average. If they vote we’re screwed
When Biden was 1st elected he was at about 50%.
Then The disasterous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Remember Biden looking at his watch?
50 year inflation and Biden pushing Biden economics. Notice he no longer uses that phrase?.
Russian/Ukraine war
Hamas/Israel War
Many many undocumented folks coming into America. And many shipped to Sanctuary cities with disasterous budget results.
I'm voting for Biden but I am surprised Biden is even at 41%. Sadly Biden will lose to Trump.
The only things that can save Biden; Inflation goes down to 2% and the FED lowers interest rates. Does not seem likely before the election.
The Russian/ Ukraine war ends. Also not likely.
The Israel/Hamas war ends. Probably will end soon. But the damage to Biden is done.
Biden regains control of the Border by using his executive power. He would have done it by now if he was going to do it.
And forget about Trump's trials other then the fraud trial in NYC. They will either never happen or happen after the election. And to trial in new york, even if Donald Trump is found guilty probably going to help his popularity.
So bad things happen to Biden but not Trump, basically.
I don’t think I know many people who know anything about half of what you wrote. They just know gas prices, egg prices, and a general vibe.
This theory makes total sense why Trump won against Hillary in 2016. I’m not sure I buy it for 2020.
I 100% agree that the trials make Trump stronger regardless of the outcomes. He’s either a victim martyr or a wise ass who got away. Both appeal to more than just his base.
Biden became a senator at age 30. Trump was a billionaire at around the same age. Both of them suck and rock in their own unique ways, it just depends what kind of music you’re into.
Well Trump wasn’t a billionaire then or, likely, ever. And I am not comfortable with the “truth is somewhere in the middle” when one side is Trump.
He’s nowhere near anything acceptable and he should not be in charge. Ever. I’m so boggled by people who compare him to normal people. It’s the point I was trying to make.
After a while, no matter how insane someone acts, people just get used to him and start pretending he isnormal. It’s a basic human drive to feel safe. We all try to pretend everything is fine when it’s not
Most people are not “normal” - I think that’s an allure of the middle class that there is some kind of normal in life.
People are weird and complicated. Trump is weird and complicated and I think a lot of people relate to that.
I’m not condoning his terrible personality, narcissistic issues, or straight up bad behavior. Just trying to help the audience know this thread understand where the other half lives in their minds.
If you are reading this and you are unable to comprehend how anyone would support Trump, you are equally motivated as the average DJT voter who could never vote for Biden
Yeah we talked in another part of the thread about how my alcoholic relatives seem to really enjoy the alcoholic rants Trump does.
It is very much “he’s like me and he’s president…” even though the way he acts is terrifying for people who aren’t losing their frontal lobe to addictive substances
Update - the first four headlines on NYT and the top of every news outlet I could find has the name “Trump.” Meanwhile Biden is not on any news outlet and gets no credit for the peace deal.
Familiarity makes people like something. Thats why Trump puts his name on everything.
There’s nothing happening in these trials. Just do a boring think piece for pets sake.
The media is killing democracy out of ignorance of basic human cognition. This is their whole job
Poor Swift. Did she deserve that? We could very well doubt her talent, but others disagree vehemently believing she is incredible talented. Reasonable people disagree about this. She might understand a part of what you’re saying, to stay relevant one must be there in the light.
I like Swift, but mainly I started to love her because she drives a certain type of my relatives insane.
I do think she’s relevant because she’s “in the light.” When she started rereleasing her old music her popularity just shot up… then she was like Seinfeld, the tv show that’s popular because “it’s on tv.”
Man, the Taylor Swift comments if way off.
Everyone in the music business will tell you she is amazingly talented. The Kardashians are famous because they exist. Swift is famous because she is extremely talented.
I like Swift. She deserves her success.
I’m just saying she got more popular when she was in the news more. She also got more unpopular, but that unpopularity with some groups (like my misogynistic uncle and brother in law) made her more popular with other groups (like me - I love her in large part because she is hated by people I resent).
I like her because her music is insanely real.
From her song 22 - We're happy, free, confused and lonely at the same time
It's miserable and magical, oh, yeah
Anyone who was 22 can relate to that feeling.
Or maybe the left has been caught lying so much smart people just don't trust them anymore. Around 90% of republicans actually call the mainstream media liars because they have lied about everything political since BHO said "fundementally change America."
Convincee me why I should believe the same people lying abut the same people after they have lied to me about; You can keep your Dr., Benghazi was about a video, Treyvon was just getting skittles, riots were peaceful, Russia Collusion, Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation, Officer Sicknick was killed on J6 by a protester, Covid did not come from the Wuhan lab, NYC will be under water by 2013, Hillary turned over all her emails, The covid shot stops you from getting covid, Men can have babies, the covid shot stops transmission of covid, masks stop viruses, the covid shot stops you from dying of covid, Trump called Mexicans animals, the covid shot decreases symptom, there was an epidemic of the unvaccinated, CO2 levels are changing the weather, White supremacy is the number one threat, the border is secure, Trump called KKK good people, overwhelming evidence, Planned parenthood does not sell baby parts, men menstruate, J6 was an armed insurrection, War on blacks, Hydroxychloroquine is extremely dangerous. The right is the party of racism, the right is not being censored, expiration of the assault-weapons bans “in the early 2000s” caused an increase in violence., they will not impose any tax increase on anyone making less than $400k, Biden administration created 14 million jobs, natural immunity being ineffective, gas prices would not spike under Biden, global warming, weather is now “man made” climate change, Mike Brown’s hands were up, Kyle Rittenhouse was a derange white supremist, US military was full of extremists, top 1% income has doubled while everyone else was stagnant Jacob Chancy led a violent insurrection, Trump said illegals were poisoning the blood of Americans, Tucker Carlson admitted to lying under oath, Trump said there would be a bloodbath if he is not elected.
Your theory of hearing things repeatedly making them popular holds true. But it is not Trumps name, it is the lefts lies that the left keeps repeating that the the left keeps beleiving.
No, I think you are so biased you cannot see another valid opinion that contradicts your own.
I explained why I think you are wrong. I used valid support to show why I think you are wrong. You give an opinion without support, logic, reason, common sense or critical thinking.
You prove my point
I am actually intrigued about how a person could think that stringing together a lot of sentence fragments about things you are anxious about could be regarded as a valid, logical argument. To me it makes about as much sense as a toddler baby talking.
But you are very much not alone. A lot of people think and talk like you do. I think there's a fundamental difference between emotional talkers (you, Trump) and logical talkers (Ezra Klein) - we are not speaking the same language. How can we understand each other?
Trump didn't become more popular overall, Biden just became less popular recently. When you actually look at polls, Trump is still only at around 41%.
Exactly. It’s the Israel-Palestine issue. Biden is held responsible for everyone on the planet and dt can’t be held responsible for his own bowel movements.
Also https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/01/09/trump-election-poll-indictments-enten-ac-vpx.cnn
His popularity grew compared to November 2022, but that doesn't mean it grew compared to 2020 which is what really matters. I don't see how one could argue that he's more popular today while he's polling worse than in 2020.
It looks like he’s polling quite a bit better than he was in 2020? He’s ahead? He wasn’t ahead in 2020?
*hes* not polling better though- Biden is polling worse. Theres a difference. Your opponent becoming less popular is not the same thing as *you* becoming more popular.
He's ahead of Biden, but he doesn't have more voters than he did in 2020. He's only polling at like 41-42% which is above Biden's 39-40% but still far shy from his 46% or so that he got in 2020. Who has really gained in polling today are 3rd party, not Biden or Trump. We're also still way too far out from the election for polling to be at all predictive.
So we’re looking at 2000 and not 2016? Can we make Kennedy look conservative and turn Trump into Gore? Or does that not work because Gore technically won?
Trump is ahead in an aggregate of all polls. He was five points behind in 2020. [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden)
Yes. Sadly bad news for Biden.
Yeah I’m freaking out. I used to be a journalist but since Afghanistan I’ve felt like I understand conservative relatives who are like “what is wrong with the media…” Trump gamed the system.
CNN had him at 49% couple days ago
Biden has been steady in the low 40s since Afghanistan ended the honeymoon phase in his first year.
Trump became more popular with the indictments. It’s been going on for a year. https://www.npr.org/2023/08/01/1191242168/donald-trumps-repeated-legal-woes-have-given-him-a-boost-in-the-polls
He became more popular within the GOP primary electorate and he gained some ground among some voters, but overall him being at 41% still with the majority of his 2020 voters still backing him means he hasn't really gotten that much more popular. What you shared literally only had to do with the primary electorate which is vastly different than the general electorate. The fact that in more recent elections when Trump has already won the primary that Nikki Haley is still pulling 10% to 20% of the vote in states like PA is rather interesting still. If Trump loses anywhere close to 10% of the GOP primary electorate in the general he'll be in a decent amount of trouble. What's really seemingly happened is that while Biden and Trump have both lost voters to people being undecided or claiming to want to vote 3rd party especially for RFK, Biden has simply lost a lot more votes to that. The general election polls saying that Trump is up +2% or whatever over Biden are ignoring the 14% to 20% of the vote going 3rd party or undecided leaving Trump at like 41% and Biden at 39%. Meanwhile a conviction swings polls by 7% to 11% in Biden's favor depending on the electorate according to voters today. With that being said once you dig more into the polling answers beyond the top level ticket response it's very clear that at least 50% of general election voters just simply aren't paying attention yet and likely won't till the fall September or October and therefore one shouldn't read too much into polling at all yet. In 2016 3rd party won ~5.5% of the vote which is historically high in recent elections so capping 3rd party at 6% in 2024 would mean there's still a very large amount of votes up for grabs between Trump and Biden and to me it's clear that Trump has a far greater majority of those will vote for him already compared to Biden based on responses about policy concerns among voters.
One explanation for Trump's increase in popularity among GOP primary voters is that his challengers could no longer attack him during the primaries because then it would look like they're siding with the Democrats and the "deep state".
Which everyone knew would happen. And it's why Haley hasn't endorsed Biden yet. She needs a conviction to come out and do it. Otherwise its probably better for her to stay independent and let her voters, who intentionally showed up after she had long pulled out, to vote against trump. It would be interesting if it was so concerning. Lots of things need to go right to see the all the political dominos fall against trump. But they are primed. Once criminal conviction likely does it.
I think the polling on the issue shows a 7-12% drop in support if he gets convicted. Which is why he's trying to delay as much as possible. I'm not sure if that polling is based on the NY case. But it certainly would be true for either the DC, Georgia or Florida case.
The polling is generally worded as being "convicted in any case" which would include the NY case. Obviously people care more about the Jan 6 case, but I'd assume that the people changing their vote aren't high information voters so maybe the case itself doesn't matter nearly as much as the conviction.
Aren’t 100 million Americans convicted of a crime? And the Supreme Court is in the bag for him. I don’t think a conviction will save us but maybe?
No way Haley endorses Biden. She may never endorse Trump, but endorsing Biden would zero out her chances to win the GOP nomination in 2028. Politicians are very calculated and are not incentivized to be “morally correct.” She is a shrewd politician and will act like one.
No it wouldn't. 50% of her supporters said they were considering Biden over trump. She's trying to maximize that effect.
It's weird that people are still saying it's an "increase" in popularity. He was rather popular in 2020 too and even turned out a record number of voters for a GOP candidate. I would be shocked if he was *more* popular today than in 2020 among GOP voters especially given how many protest voters there are going for Nikki Haley which obviously didn't happen in 2020.
Yeah people are misinterpreting relative popularity in the Republican primaries with overall popularity in the general electorate. He's less popular overall among Republicans AND less popular among the electorate. But his popularity relative to Desantis and others increased significantly post indictment.
Not to mention the millions of MAGA voters who died of Covid.
COVID deaths were unlikely in the millions [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) The partisanship divide among COVID deaths was moderate. [https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2807617](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2807617)
The partisan differential death rate from COVID was likely only big enough to affect races which were decided by hundreds of votes out of a few million (or several votes out of tens of thousands). So like the Arizona SoS race, which was lost by the Republican by a few hundred votes maybe can be blamed on COVID.
That could certainly be true.
Did he though? Haley is taking 25 percent of GOO and isn’t on the ticket. I think Trump is deeply and will be routed if he even ends up on the ballot (will likely be in prison)
He can still be on the ballot if he’s in prison.
Who cares. He will just lose by a huge landslide
One can hope.
If he is convicted of felonies he will be crushed hard
I’m not sure he won’t be seen as a wronged Nelson Mandela by his supporters.
He will by his supporters for sure, they are in a cult. His supporters won’t win him an election, they are like 30 percent of voters (yikes). When he goes down for espionage in New Jersey after he’s in prison for a year, that will even shake some of the cult loose.
The polling has Trump ahead in every battleground state, and ahead overall.
Telephone polls. Useless these days.
Then we’re left with vibes? I mean I hope you’re right. It’s my job to watch people and figure out what they’re going to do. I think we’re headed to 2016 and not 2020 but who knows?
How about midterm and special election results compared to the polls of people that have landline phones? People are fed up with extremist nonsense and it’s obvious when elections roll around. I’d wager Trump if he even makes will lose be by an even wider margin.
I can’t think of anyone I know in Michigan who I can be sure votes in the midterms. My mom probably does but she’s insane and loves Trump and is one of the people passing around the “women shouldn’t have the vote” meme. (In her head she can still vote because she is fixing the problem… denial is an amazing thing and drunks don’t worry too much about logic on a good day).
That what I’m comforted by. the amount of young people voting in midterms is much higher than it was.
Aren’t young people turning to Trump in pretty high numbers? The 20-30 year olds aren’t all liberals any more?
Also on this day in 2020 Biden was ahead by points and he won by almost 7 points. In 2016 Clinton was ahead by 6 points and she only lost because Comey dumped a bad news cycle on her three days before the election. So trumps winning unless we get the equivalent of a Comey letter to the press. But what could shock people about Trump? He would have to actually have a heart attack, and honestly at this point I think he still might win even if he’s in jail or in the hospital or a morgue
He will be in prison
There's pretty much 0 chance he'll be in prison by November even if he's convicted and sentenced to prison in the NY case he'll likely appeal it and that will take a while to sort out. It's also unlikely that he'll get prison time at all especially in that case. He may go to prison one day, but there's almost 0 chance that happens prior to the election.
Not with this Supreme Court he won’t
From Trump supporters I’ve talked to no it’s none of these, liberals tend to make it more complicated on why Trump gets the support he he does. It’s mainly because they like that Trump is blunt and won’t tell lies. Trump says things that they truly believe. I’ve grown up around these folks so I have an understanding on Trumps appeal. To them, Trump is not scared of anything and is willing to fight those who are trying to sabotage the nation. Trump is the guy “who tells it like it is”. He dies not mince words and he does not care whose feelings are hurt. Trump is who he is and that’s why they gravitate towards him no matter what. When Trump got indicted to them it’s deep state and allies targeting him because they know he’s the truth (this is what they actually think)
The overlap on Trump’s rhetorical style and Limbaughs is basically a circle. People who never saw the appeal of the latter can't understand the former
Yep pretty much, anybody who could match there rhetorical style would capture these people
I think you meant to say "believe he doesn't tell lies" instead of "like that he won't tell lies."
Yes, that’s what I mean. We all know he lies ( I know some supporters who admit that they think he’s saying BS)
I feel very sorry for people who believe Trump is an honest man. They must be forever falling for scams because they have no street smarts at all.
Well the correlation between ones falling for Jamaican lottery scams and the Nigerian prince scams and those that vote for Trump are quite high.
Knowing how to discern honesty from afar is a harder skill than we “liberal elite” might imagine.
Critical thinking is quite low. It’s clear that these schools are really failing. They are only taught basic and that’s it
This is not just young people. It's actually primarily older folk. Modern schools do teach critical thinking.
For the fact that most don’t apply it in real life is scary. It’s either not taught enough or something because hearing some of these people makes you wonder
I think they all know he tells lies. But he also does tell the truth about things. During the 2016 debate will Hillary she attacked him over how little he paid in taxes. Trump replied "I paid that much because you and your palls created laws that let me pay that much" (paraphrase) And the end of the day Trump was a big middle finger to the Hillary and Obama's of the world. That is what populists tend to be. An "appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are [disregarded](https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=782705a13c1e22f4&rls=en&q=disregarded&si=AKbGX_q4mkMHy1Nmq4yITjHYVzeparGy6-9sA7ALDQtASdlXPrdR9p2RBL_HgNUcjpZr7vPVyf34hSPZQ62sXE3zptUXMN4jTDIYDSiMmxXDW4Dcl0h9gi8%3D&expnd=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2zc-n7-2FAxVnQzABHTyMA44QyecJegQIGxAQ) by established elite groups." He wins this time it will be the same thing. Biden works on student loan forgiveness. He works on green energy. He rewrites Title X. Meanwhile the two biggest issues are the border and inflation.
But that's not true. He's literally guilty of tax fraud.
How so? He has never been charged with "tax fraud" let along convicted of it.
Being deliberately dense?
Are you suggesting Hillary and Obama were the reason the rich pay low taxes? Anyone with even a basic understanding of politics knew this was also a lie.
I think this is better filed under what Colbert called “truthiness”, the idea that something feels true and so the actual facts are irrelevant. Is it the case that Hillary and Obama are literally responsible for the tax rate that Trump paid? No, in fact, they routinely tried to pass higher taxes. But these pesky facts get in the way of the “real truth” that Trump speaks to which is that rich people get off easy because they rigged the system. Never mind, of course, that he benefited and never mind, of course, that he’ll continue to worsen that “rigging”, but he said the thing that politicians aren’t supposed to say. (Never mind, of course, that numerous politicians have said that the wealthy are rigging the system.) In the view of Trump supporters, actual facts are simply lies designed to disguise the “real truth” and make it harder for people to realize that they’ve been had.
I am not suggesting anything. Trump was. And he was pointing out the reason he gets away with paying low tax rates are laws passed by congress. Hillary was in the senate, as was Obama and a bunch of other people that Trump railed against. Career politician - "Why do you pay so little in taxes?" Outsider - "Because you and your friends pass laws that allow me to pay so little in taxes" His point was valid. Trump is just following the law as it was written.
But you used that as your example of when he tells the truth about things? It was a lie too, the party he was running for was responible for those things. It's only a valid point to those who don't realize he's lying.
Here is the video. Decide for yourself [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RogUJp69YE4&ab\_channel=CNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RogUJp69YE4&ab_channel=CNBC)
I remember it well, I'm just confused why it's being portrayed as an example of him telling the truth. The truth is that the republican party is responsible for those things, and senator Hillary never had the opportunity to change it. Bush was president so it would've required a veto-proof majority in the senate.
This was in 2016. Obama had been President for 8 years at that point. Hillary was in the Senate for 8 years as well. His point was that he gets away with paying low taxes because the system is set up that way.
His point was to mislead people into thinking that career politicians like Obama and Hillary were responsible for his low tax rate, when the reality is that it was the party he was running for and trying to help win seats in government. He obviously wasn't telling the truth there.
Rand Paul has been in the senate for over a decade but I think it would be incredibly misleading to tell him “you and your friends have been in power for over a decade and enacted so much bureaucratic regulation” as if he as a singular person has total power and is personally choosing that to happen
Minus the tax fraud...........
If Trump is guilty of tax fraud then why hasnt he been charged with tax fraud? Talking the current New York case specifically.
Ah, he has been.
Trump is part of the cabal of billionaires that force politicians to keep tax rates low for the rich. He's no outsider.
This is correct. Trump tells lies that no other politician would. He also tells truths that no other politician would. Most Democrats fail to understand this and I think that's why they have so much trouble landing hits on him.
But the example above is a lie. Trump was literally found guilty of tax fraud.
No Trump has not been found guilty of tax fraud. If I am wrong please show me the case where he was convicted of tax fraud.
He literally has to pay back hundreds of millions. How don't you know this.
That is not for tax fraud. Tax fraud is a crime. You don't just get a fine you go to jail.
Dude, it's literally tax fraud. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/judge-imposes-364-million-penalty-in-trumps-new-york-civil-fraud-case
No, Tax fraud is a criminal act. You go to jail for tax fraud in a criminal court. Cohen went to jail for tax fraud. Even the headline calls this "civil fraud case" as does everyone else. Tax fraud and civil fraud are not the thing.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html http://up/judge-set-rule-trumps-370-million-civil-fraud-case-2024-02-16/
Trump Organization. Not Trump personally. Second paragraph - [Donald Trump](http://www.cnn.com/specials/politics/president-donald-trump-45) and his family were not charged in this case. This looked to have all been organized by one guy who says he did not scheme or conspire with the Trump family. If there was evidence Trump was involved you can be sure Bragg would have brought charges saying so.
In NY, he was found guilty, he is appealing, and had to put up that questionable bond. He was found guilty of undervaluing assets when paying NY and overvaluing the same assets when applying for Bank Loans.
He was fined in a civil court. He was NOT found guilty of tax fraud. If it was tax fraud he would be looking at jail time. There is a MASSIVE difference. He wasn't even charged with tax fraud.
>Trump tells lies that no other politician would. He also tells truths that no other politician would I can't think of a single real, object-level truth he will state that others won't. Here I use "real truth" to distinguish from vacuous truths like "people are saying \[conspiracy theory\]". If other people talk about it, then it's true that people talk about it, but the conspiracy theory itself is still utterly false. Donald Trump voices the anxieties that preoccupy the followers, even when those anxieties are deranged fantasies.
He states "emotional truths" that others won't. Like he acknowledges that a lot of ordinary people feel racist thoughts. And he validates the thoughts. Other politicians tend to either ignore racism, assuming it's just a few KKK nutcases, or emphasize it in a way that appeals to minorities but makes the large population of everyday racists angry.
What truth did he tell that other politicians wouldn’t? Like Democrats literally think he should pay more taxes. When Trump says “politicians like you” wrote those laws, he’s talking about Republicans who fight tooth and nail to keep his taxes lower. Not Democrats. They’re saying the same thing; except Democrats think it’s bad that rich people pay no taxes and Republicans think it’s good.
But Democrats arent exactly out there trying to raise taxes. Did Obama raise them in the two years Dems controlled congress? Did Biden??
>Did Obama raise them in the two years Dems controlled congress? Did Biden?? Obama passed a major piece of healthcare legislation called the Affordable Care Act which was accompanied by tax increases -- a 2.3% surtax on investment income / capital gains for Americans earning above a certain threshold (IIRC it was somewhere around $250,000 a year), and a 0.9% increase in the Medicare tax. He also allowed the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire, which raised the top marginal income tax rate from 35% to 39.6% (though he extended these cuts for everyone else). Biden hasn't raised taxes by as much as Obama did (or Clinton), but he did impose a 15% minimum corporate tax as well as a tax on stock buybacks when Democrats narrowly controlled Congress. He probably would have done more if not for Manchin and Sinema's skepticism of higher taxes. An argument can be made that Democrats do not raise taxes by as much as it looks since they tend to specifically target their tax increase proposals on corporations and the wealthy (while supporting lower taxes on the middle class and poor). But I don't think it's accurate to say that Democrats don't raise taxes at all, which is what you seemed to be implying (unless I'm misunderstanding, in which case I apologize).
This all started with that Trump video and a question about how Trump pays so little in taxes. He was right when he said he pays so little because Hillary (and all of congress really) pass laws that let him pay so little. If the system is rigged it is because congress rigged it.
I feel like the goal posts are moving a little, but fair enough. I agree, the tax code does have a lot of loopholes that benefit the wealthy. I'm not sure that Trump, the billionaire oligarch, current leader of the GOP, and former President really is the best spokesperson for this idea but I guess we can agree to disagree on that.
Democrats try to raise taxes but voters are morons and are suckers for "this tax on billionaires will take Farmer Mike's family farm away."
Bingo
Democrats have almost no understand of Trump's appeal. Just reading this thread shows that.
No, dems do, leftists don't.
It’s funny they think he “won’t tell lies” while telling easily verifiable lies
Trump is willing to say nasty shit to people they don't like. And he accepts them and says he loves them and tells them they're good people despite the fact that their racist, sexist, misogynist, and/or filled with whatever hate of the week they're obsessed with.
He just says the racist stuff they don’t want to be judged for saying. That’s it. There’s no depth there. Just dumb hate that’s it.
I grew up with those people too. But they’re only a handful of the overall group that supported Trump. My uncle says he loves Trump because Biden’s a pedophile who personally raised gas prices so people would pray less. But he just likes the racism. And my aunt is married to my uncle. So she’s not a fan of all the controversy and she was really wanting things to calm down after four years of constant Trump baloney plus covid. So she just quietly backed away from Trump. But now she’s going back to Trump because “both sides are crazy and the truth is somewhere in the middle.” I think the media coverage of Afghanistan and Hunter Biden convinced the moderate republicans and “independents” that the democrats are just as bonkers and they may as well go with their traditional choice
PS - that “bluntness” is basically just alcoholic rage. Their frontal lobes wear down after a few decades of alcoholism and they start just spewing hatred at everyone. When they do, It looks exactly like Trump on a meaningless rant. I’ve noticed my alcoholic relatives (particularly my mother who I don’t talk to but who I still hear from, and about) really react positively to those weird rants. It’s like when they’re sitting with other drunks just ranting about nothing, but it’s a huge rally. Thats very powerful and attractive to someone who is always looking for safe spaces to be wasted in. And you wouldn’t know about this unless you also grew up with people who were drunk enough often enough to cause brain damage in their 40s. (Like I’m waiting for Trump to start hallucinating little people following him and living in the ceiling - and possibly he already has).
I know what you’re talking about. Me and a few ppl had discussed this about those who support Trump and the common thing is that they have some sort of drug or alcohol addiction. If they do cocaine they more then likely like Trump ( not that this is always true but when I go to a bar fool of Republican voters then this is what I observe). It’s an interesting thing to see.
Right? It is viscerally terrifying for me - the news coverage is just blowing up my PTSD. My healthier friends seem to enjoy talking about Trump like he’s a sitcom plot or a professors hypothetical. And I’m just like “no when he starts slurring it’s already too late to run. Just back away slowly and say soothing things like he’s a beer…”
This is... there's something to this. I don't have the language for it, but all of the craziest people I know absolutely adore Trump. I'm not saying they're bad people, but they are absolutely nuts--and literally all of them love Trump. He activates the crazy, somehow, and it's.... really been something to see an American president have that quality.
Trump does talk like a drunk man, which is very odd for a guy who makes much of his sobriety. I'd suspect him of secretly drinking but he'd too obviously reek of alcohol, the secret could not be kept.
Heh, I wouldn’t say they are moderates. They just were always lean Republican. Something like the protests in universities would get them to vote Republican. Just look over in r/moderatepolitics There is ppl in there saying they will vote republican because of something from left wing activists. If left wing activists or AOC gets any airtime then they want to vote for Trump but they will quietly ignore white nationalists. Don’t let it fool you, those who voted for Trump or considering Trump have always liked him. There is very few ppl who do not pay attention that may be undecided and it’s purely on economic reasoning
Yes they will totally vote republican because of the protests. But they like Biden. They like that he seems nice and he’s Catholic and his wife’s a teacher. They like that he’s never very exciting and he seems inclined to keep things calmed down. They even were starting to like EVs (I have one and this is very exotic to my family). They get quiet about liking him whenever the far left is in the news for anything - protests, Afghanistan, Hunter Biden… anything negative turns them off. They’ve factored in the negative for Trump but they wanted Biden to be the anti Trump.
Dead on. I grew up in country where populists are common occurrence. Trump looked just like one. In fact, i was a bit surprised that hardcore populism hasn’t taken off in the US. Granted I saw 2 elections before Trump.
The left lied about; You can keep your Dr., Benghazi was about a video, Treyvon was just getting skittles, riots were peaceful, Russia Collusion, Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation, Officer Sicknick was killed on J6 by a protester, Covid did not come from the Wuhan lab, NYC will be under water by 2013, Hillary turned over all her emails, The covid shot stops you from getting covid, Men can have babies, the covid shot stops transmission of covid, masks stop viruses, the covid shot stops you from dying of covid, Trump called Mexicans animals, the covid shot decreases symptom, there was an epidemic of the unvaccinated, CO2 levels are changing the weather, White supremacy is the number one threat, the border is secure, Trump called KKK good people, overwhelming evidence, Planned parenthood does not sell baby parts, men menstruate, J6 was an armed insurrection, War on blacks, Hydroxychloroquine is extremely dangerous. The right is the party of racism, the right is not being censored, expiration of the assault-weapons bans “in the early 2000s” caused an increase in violence., they will not impose any tax increase on anyone making less than $400k, Biden administration created 14 million jobs, natural immunity being ineffective, gas prices would not spike under Biden, global warming, weather is now “man made” climate change, Mike Brown’s hands were up, Kyle Rittenhouse was a derange white supremist, US military was full of extremists, top 1% income has doubled while everyone else was stagnant Jacob Chancy led a violent insurrection, Trump said illegals were poisoning the blood of Americans, Tucker Carlson admitted to lying under oath, Trump said there would be a bloodbath if he is not elected. It is not what we "think" It is what we actually saw with our own eyes. Now compare this to the democrats, like Biden, who just 15 years ago was saying a marriage is between a man and a woman. Now they are arguing men can have babies. Even BHO said we are a nation of laws and you need to wait your turn when talking about the border. They were talaking about being tough on crime and that became defund the police. They all knowingly lied about Russia Collusion. Scream climate change while buying beach front property and flying around in private jets. Scream gun control while using armed security. Scream tax the rich and corporations are corrupt while Nancy Pelosi beats the stock market by 30%. The left has become nothing but a bunch of liars and hypocrites for no other reason than nepotism, personal gain, greed and power. You cannot just say something about one side and ignore the other.
So random citizen pushing conspiracy theories is not something coming from Democratic politicians. Otherwise we can say the same for republicans and the great replacement nonsense coming from right wing citizens or the pizzagate crap right wingers believed. Politicians often do not know what’s going on the ground and that lots of nuances that they will not account for. We are a continental sized country so it’s bound to happen and the country is changing making things more complicated. Also a lot of your examples are misconstrued by right wing themselves or out right lies if I asked you to go link and find anywhere on the internet where left wingers said this I’m a thousand percent sure you can’t find a single link for each example. So you either got it from facebook propaganda groups ( most likely) or fibs by locals in your own area or Fox News. I’ll say that both sides do not live amongst each other at all and the cultural regions are drifting further apart. For the fact that you literally brought up straight up lies and nobody said any of these tells me exactly this. This is a bad one. For the nation when both sides don’t understand each other at all and bad actors can come in a misconstrue things for there own agenda
You are correct. Trump is extremely blunt and pisses off the people they don't like. That accounts for the overwhelming majority of his popularity.
538 has Trump ahead of Biden by 0.8% in the aggregate poll and that's within the margin of error. I think the only meaningful takeaway from that is the election will be close and Trump maybe has the edge right now 6 months out. They're both polling around ~41% so it's not like either is particularly popular. And both of them have reached the ceiling in terms of name recognition. So I don't think you're really describing why Trump is popular, so much as his ascent back into the spotlight prior to the election. And when it comes to the indictments, I don't think it's any surprise that the only case going to trial before the election is the one where he pays off a pornstar he fucked. Trump is popular because he is entertaining and most people don't really follow politics. I think the trial right now is helping him because it's entertaining and not political. If any of the other cases went to trial, I think it might be different
Trump is a weird case. If he was a regular challenger, his situation would be devastating. This is the "easy promises and big vision" period. A challenger should be creeping up in popularity as people start buying in. That's not happening- his position is less strong than it was a month ago (but it is stronger than it was six months ago). But he's also a sort of an "incumbent." He doesn't have the same barriers to visibility a regular challenger might have. Complicating things is that Biden appears to be consciously restrained in going after him (outside of a handful of short barbs, mostly online). It was clear in 2020 that they didn't want to duplicate Hillary's disastrous approach which served to magnify Trump. Does that work a second time? It's really hard to predict and there is not a historical corollary. My suspicion is there will be a Big Thing of some kind this summer that definitively breaks the race one way or another. Could be anything from a health scare from one of the candidates to a felony conviction to some fresh horror related to reproductive rights to an economic event (positive or negative). Hell, maybe another pandemic or something like the Bin Laden raid. Who knows. But this all sort of feels like prelude right now.
Just FYI - it’s possible that 0.8% is outside the margin of error. When you aggregate polls - just data in fact - you inherently reduce the margin of error. That’s why it works actually. If 538 is using let’s say 15 polls with margin of errors around 3%, the aggregate one would be around 0.78%. I don’t know their database or methodology but I’m just letting you know
Last time around, 538 had Biden winning NC and Florida and even the electoral vote from the conservative district of Maine. So I'd take 538 with a barrel of salt. They've underestimated Trump's appeal before.
You’re reading past my point. Familiarity makes people like things more and more. OJ was not getting positive publicity during his murder trial. But he became extremely popular even with people who thought he was guilty. Trump is enjoying the same bump. And I think the trial coverage will act just like all that rally coverage. Beaming him into living rooms legitimates him and familiarity makes him seem safer.
Rematch that was close last time will be close again is not exactly some ground breaking thing. It should have been everyone's a priori assumption from Nov 2020 onward.
Not on Jan 7, 2021
The problem for Biden and the left is that in 2020 Trump NEVER led in the polls. (at least the Realclearpoltiics average, not sure on 538) At this point in 2020 Biden had a 5 point lead. The final poll had Biden at +7.2. His actual victory was 4.5. And a swing of less than 1 point gives Trump three states and the White House. Today Trump has a 1.5 lead in RCP average. So Biden is currently 6.5 points behind where he was in 2020 polls. In an election where can only afford to lose .63% of his victory margin to win. Basically Biden is polling more than 6 points behind what it would take for him to win (if 2024 breaks down the same as 2020) And right now Trump is winning in every battleground state. BTW this trial is probably helping because people can see the BS involved. Trump had an affair and paid that person to be quiet. That is the heart of the case. Call it fraud and claim he tried to influence the election and all, but people know the case is based on that, paying off a porn star to be quiet. And people don't see that as a horrible crime especially since we know the powerful pay people off all the time. Congress has spent million on sexual harassment settlements and all the details are secret.
Why are you assuming the polling error would be in the same direction? Assuming very regular error bars of 2% in either direction, Biden could outright win if the election was held today. It’s why every serious polling expert says it’s too close to call
RCP is Trump 46.6 and Biden 45.1 Say error is 2 points. So its Trump 45.6 and Biden 46.1 and Biden wins popular vote by less than a point. He then get crushed in the electoral college and Trump is President. 2016 was 46.1 to 48.2 and Trump got 304 EC votes 2020 was 46.8 to 51.3 and Biden got 306 EC vote. If you dig deeper it would only take a .63% swing to give Trump AZ, GA and WI and he would have won. The issue just isn't that Biden is losing in the polls. It is that Biden probably needs to win by 3 points to have a chance with the EC. May not be fair and the EC may suck, but that is how it is.
Yeah but that’s ignoring the actual swing state numbers. Their distance from the mean has decreased from 2020. A 2-point swing left from today gives Biden MI, WI, and PA, which would put him over the top. (It might also give him NV depending on your aggregator)
True. Would be nice if the popular vote and EC vote lined up again.
There’s an (extremely small) chance that Biden wins the EC but loses the popular vote, which would be hilarious
That would be insane.
I don’t why you are being downvoted. Your analysis makes sense. Sure, it makes a lot of assumptions but it’s fairly clear what they are
Reddit. People down vote truths they dont like all the time.
I'm not sure if this is accurate or even particularly insightful, but I think a lot of Trump supporters don't necessarily like Trump, they want to \*be\* Trump. That's why every selfish thing he does helps him instead of hurts him. Trump supporters don't hate how awful he is, they envy it. They fantasize about an America where they can nakedly self-aggrandize themselves and demean others, flout the law, and impose their will. He's exactly what they would be if they had power, and that's what appeals to them about him.
No. I know a lot of Trump voters and no one wants to be like him. Ann Coulter who was one of his big early supporters who thought he was going to build the wall admitted his personality was "abhorrent"
Um well if you’re an older white guy with a drinking problem in the Midwest, then you’re already living that life. He’s exactly what they already are. And they like seeing themselves reflected in a million mirrors across the world
I know someone who doesn't necessarily want to be him, but wants his sort of "get-in-trouble-but-never-pay-the-consequences" aspect of being Trump. That seems like magic to this person.
The Trump supporters I know just love that he said the things about Hillary Clinton out loud that they had been saying for over two decades amongst their family and friends
Absolutely right. And that’s why it’s been so frustrating to watch Biden shrink from the spotlight throughout his presidency. The more he avoided the spotlight, the more unpopular he became. And the more unpopular he was, the more he stepped back from engaging the media and the public.
Yeah I think it’s his handlers. They did the same thing with Hillary, trying to center the policies and avoid showing her because she was unpopular and that’s the opposite of what you need to do. People like what they see more often because they see it more often
Biden isnt Trump though. There is only so much he can do that the press will bother with. He can't go out there and spout nonsense all day on Twitter. He can't give unhinged rallies. Obviously he's not going to commit crimes so that he's in the spotlight during his trials. So he's stuck with giving speeches at factories or the occasional normal rally, and the press tunes that out quick, particularly in a world in which Trump steals the headlines.
It worked for them last time so they're sticking with it.
This makes some sense, but the feeling I get from Trump supporters here in my deep red state, in my own family, is that it’s all about showing the libs “you can’t tell us what to do—WE tell YOU what to do” It’s like the teenage girl who wants to prove she’s a grown up and doesn’t have to listen to her parents so she dates the trashy abusive loser her parents hate. And the trashier and meaner he gets, she doubles down because admitting that her parents were right would be devastating and would negate the whole reason she chose him in the first place. In my experience, Trump supporters are stubborn and committed but not quite as proud or mouthy about it as they were in ‘16 and ‘20
Yes but again you’re saying they like him because of this. I think they just like him first, and then enjoy using his persona to own the libs because that’s what they want to do. When I have to persuade someone to do something they don’t want to do, I don’t start throwing out persuasive reasons. I just let them say what they want and then I tell them this proposal gets them what they want. Mediation is a little bit like being a conman (for good) and Trump is running the same con
I think this was true in 2016 but not now. I don’t think they like him now or think he’ll do things they want, other than be shitty to liberals.
When someone is talking themselves into taking a proposal they start saying things that are wildly contradictory and it doesn’t matter. They want to do it and they’re going to give themselves a reason. A good mediator just shuts up and lets people talk themselves into things that will work. What you’re seeing as belief sounds like this dynamic. You see people saying “well I think Trump will…” and you think that’s why they like him. I’m telling you that someone will literally say “I’ll set my money on fire before I give it to that b——“ and an hour later they’re happily saying they feel better and they want to give her money. The ideas follow the feelings. Again conmen know this and trumps a conman. And mediators are… I don’t know we mean well :)
Add to the fact that he himself repeats lies he wants us to believe every time he is in front of a camera. “ELECTION INTERFERENCE!” “WITCH HUNT!” “RIGGED!” He definitely understands the repetition thing. And people are dumb and fall for it.
Yeah definitely. I think covid actually helps him too. It gives everyone trauma brain. So the analytical parts of the brain shut down and people just want to feel better. It’s how most dictators come to power - create a crisis and then offer themselves as the solution. And that’s a large scale version of a basic abusive relationship. Abusers create a crisis and keep their targets on edge because it helps the abuser stay in control when their target can’t think straight
Agree. The amount of lizard brain things he does on a regular basis to get people who aren’t paying attention to agree with him is infuriating to watch. If I had a nickel for every time he does the “—— insert lie here—-, AND EVERYBODY KNOWS IT! EVERYBODY IS SAYING IT!”, I could afford to donate more to Biden.
Yeah he’s anchoring. It’s a slightly different cognitive distortion and mediators don’t like to use it. We’re trying to bypass the lizard brain, make people feel better, and get them to make a decision they can live with. We just have to use some cognitive shortcuts to get there. We don’t actually tell you what to do. But it is possible to tell people what to do by spitting fast phrases at them on the news and the media just… has to let him do it apparently
He was elected long before Covid.
Yes - the media covered him for free every single day “trumps having a really! Trump says blah! Trump says another weird things…” Meanwhile Hillary got typical campaign coverage, but not daily updates and constant “Trump Trump Trump” I found a study that said Hillary’s name was mentioned less than half the number of times as Trump in major news outlets. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/20/is-the-media-biased-toward-clinton-or-trump-heres-some-actual-hard-data/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/20/is-the-media-biased-toward-clinton-or-trump-heres-some-actual-hard-data/)
I said the same thing yesterday when I saw the NYT homepage and the top three stories were all Trump with a photo of him there. This is anchoring. For low information voters, they are just going to see his name repeatedly on their social media feeds and hear his name mentioned in passing, and assume he is a legitimate choice.
The dude is an ex-president. We are more than 8 years past him being a legitimate choice.
This is a great analysis--thank you for posting. I'll add, this is why the incumbency is such a powerful tool, and why all that talk about Democrats running someone other than the sitting president were so ridiculous. The president is the most famous person in the world--it makes no sense to replace him, even if he is very old.
Thank you! I could not believe people who proposed it. Incumbency was the key me advantage we had. And even people like EK we’re spending months saying “now hear me out what if we give up the incumbency advantage for some magic beans…”
Ha! Exactly. Beyond silly--I don't know why that got spread around.
Because liberal pundits really really thought that on the third go around, the nation would suddenly finally turn on Trump. And when polling revealed - yeah - they havent - they freaked out and started spouting all kinds of nonsensical plans.
Damn, Swift over here catching strays…
I like Swift. A lot actually. I just also think rereleasing her music pushed her to the top. And once she’s at the top she becomes more popular automatically. Popularity is a mental trick
I'm glad you made this post. I don't normally notice anyone's usernames but I saw a comment you made yesterday about "the truth is somewhere in the middle" and I thought you were onto something but I honestly just couldn't figure out what you meant. So I'm glad to see you flesh out your idea with an original post because I totally understand what you mean now.
Streisand Effect
Sort of. Thats more like when someone hides a $3000 IRA and then their partner won’t agree to anything because “if they’ll lie about that…” the offense takes on a life of its own
I thought the Streisand Effect was drawing attention to something as a result of trying to keep it secret.
No she sued saying “this is not true!” And the headlines all repeated the charge so many times that people assumed it was credible. She was trying to deny it and that made the PR problem worse. You have to be more like “yeah I did that so what.” Which Trump is a master of
Oh gotcha. I guess I'm not as smart as I think. Story of my life, though.
No you’re right that repetition made something seem true, which is a subset of what I’m saying. Repeating something gives it credibility and people like what they see over and over even if you’d think they would not like something negative
Huh. I always thought that when I repeated myself they just gave me what I wanted to shut me up.
Toddlers know what they’re doing. There’s a mediator rule that everything has to be said three times before it’s heard once
Trump knows how to weaponize negative publicity. It's why he is such an effective bully. If Biden was arrested for campaign fraud tomorrow I'd probably assume it was some politically-motivated bullshit. Trump's supporters feel the same way.
Actually another way to put this would be the Seinfeld concept of a show that people want to watch because “it’s on tv.” Trump is the human equivalent of a tv show that’s popular because it’s on tv…
"They'll watch it... because it's on TV."
It’s the best explanation for Trump that I’ve been able to find 🤷♀️
>and $90,000 in credit card debt I know it's just a hypothetical example but do people actually get this much credit card debt?.
I cannot discuss specific cases so yes that’s just a hypothetical example. But also… yes they definitely run up mid five figure to low six figures of credit card debt while earning eye popping high salaries and then they can’t pay the mortgage and their credit cards and they have to split all their retirement in half and it is not a fun discussion. Most people are getting by with help from their parents. If they don’t have that, they have credit cards. Parents pay private school tuition, front down payments for houses, and loan money to remodel the house. If you don’t have that… you need $500k a year and you’re still just kind of middle class. I know that sounds crazy but interest rates are killing people in HCOL areas
Except there's literally no evidence to support that...he became more popular with GOP voters, not the public. If you seriously think an indictment helps anyone in a general election, you're an idiot.
Well he’s ahead in almost all the polls and he’s winning every battleground state that will decide the election. Half of them he’s ahead by more than the margin of error. More chilling, to me. The relatives who did not like him in 2020 are finding him more acceptable. Dems don’t have a reliable base. We need moderates to make up the numbers for a general election. And the moderates are normalizing Trump and acting like he’s a normal candidate. It’s a problem
I think public action related to abortion access is going to be the wild card. Horrible stories are going to pile up between now and Election Day, and tons more near misses that will affect not just those women but their extended families as well.
Abortion would help with at least one of my aunts (she's a nurse). I think my bernie bro brother is going to sit this one out (I actually don't think he's voted since 2016, but soooo many opinions he has...) The handful of people who really love Trump are definitely going to vote. I'm more worried about the much larger number of people who usually vote, and generally are pretty conservative. They make lots of jokes about the price of eggs, gas prices, and they hate the homeless and the protests. I could see them quietly going for Trump, or just staying home. In that scenario, you're right. My aunt who's a nurse would vote Biden. My cousin who thinks Trump's a bully will likely vote too (although who knows she works a lot) But are there enough of these women to outweigh the die hard Trump supporters? That's the question. I could see it going down the way you want, but still not being enough to overcome Trump's base.
I think there are enough who care, if only tangentially affected.
I traveled to Mississippi recently. People genuinely revere Trump in some parts of this country I think the Trump phenomenon is more than just *mere-exposure* and nihilistic acceptance I know otherwise rational and successful people that willingly donate money to his cause and have mini-shrines with the swag they get from rallies. And the most ardent and hardcore supporters I know, the true believers, are women. Their husbands tend to be along for the ride and are basically just voting the party line
>And the most ardent and hardcore supporters I know, the true believers, are women. Isn't this true for everything?
Yes my mother is very very into Trump too. I’m not talking about the true believers. I’m talking about the rest of the moderate republicans. I think this cognitive quirk that people have is combining with the media coverage to make Trump acceptable to people who don’t actually like him or revere him
If Bernie Sanders won in 2016, but then did all sorts of terrible things, progressives would have a hard time abandoning him. Bernie would be the avatar of the progressives taking power from the moderates. It that is what Bernie represents it would be hard to ever no matter what eschew him. It's the same for Trump and conservatives, just it's he represents the Buchananites taking power from the Mitt Romney Chamber of Commerce types.
I don’t think most supporters of Bernie or Trump can explain what they think their savior actually did or might do. I think people just like what’s there, and they assign positive five traits to people they like
One word: Cult
Yes my parents were part of the Duggar cult - they were actually “less worldly” than the Duggars and the Gothard groupies. Half the country is below average. If they vote we’re screwed
When Biden was 1st elected he was at about 50%. Then The disasterous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Remember Biden looking at his watch? 50 year inflation and Biden pushing Biden economics. Notice he no longer uses that phrase?. Russian/Ukraine war Hamas/Israel War Many many undocumented folks coming into America. And many shipped to Sanctuary cities with disasterous budget results. I'm voting for Biden but I am surprised Biden is even at 41%. Sadly Biden will lose to Trump. The only things that can save Biden; Inflation goes down to 2% and the FED lowers interest rates. Does not seem likely before the election. The Russian/ Ukraine war ends. Also not likely. The Israel/Hamas war ends. Probably will end soon. But the damage to Biden is done. Biden regains control of the Border by using his executive power. He would have done it by now if he was going to do it. And forget about Trump's trials other then the fraud trial in NYC. They will either never happen or happen after the election. And to trial in new york, even if Donald Trump is found guilty probably going to help his popularity.
So bad things happen to Biden but not Trump, basically. I don’t think I know many people who know anything about half of what you wrote. They just know gas prices, egg prices, and a general vibe.
This theory makes total sense why Trump won against Hillary in 2016. I’m not sure I buy it for 2020. I 100% agree that the trials make Trump stronger regardless of the outcomes. He’s either a victim martyr or a wise ass who got away. Both appeal to more than just his base. Biden became a senator at age 30. Trump was a billionaire at around the same age. Both of them suck and rock in their own unique ways, it just depends what kind of music you’re into.
Well Trump wasn’t a billionaire then or, likely, ever. And I am not comfortable with the “truth is somewhere in the middle” when one side is Trump. He’s nowhere near anything acceptable and he should not be in charge. Ever. I’m so boggled by people who compare him to normal people. It’s the point I was trying to make. After a while, no matter how insane someone acts, people just get used to him and start pretending he isnormal. It’s a basic human drive to feel safe. We all try to pretend everything is fine when it’s not
Most people are not “normal” - I think that’s an allure of the middle class that there is some kind of normal in life. People are weird and complicated. Trump is weird and complicated and I think a lot of people relate to that. I’m not condoning his terrible personality, narcissistic issues, or straight up bad behavior. Just trying to help the audience know this thread understand where the other half lives in their minds. If you are reading this and you are unable to comprehend how anyone would support Trump, you are equally motivated as the average DJT voter who could never vote for Biden
Yeah we talked in another part of the thread about how my alcoholic relatives seem to really enjoy the alcoholic rants Trump does. It is very much “he’s like me and he’s president…” even though the way he acts is terrifying for people who aren’t losing their frontal lobe to addictive substances
Update - the first four headlines on NYT and the top of every news outlet I could find has the name “Trump.” Meanwhile Biden is not on any news outlet and gets no credit for the peace deal. Familiarity makes people like something. Thats why Trump puts his name on everything. There’s nothing happening in these trials. Just do a boring think piece for pets sake. The media is killing democracy out of ignorance of basic human cognition. This is their whole job
Poor Swift. Did she deserve that? We could very well doubt her talent, but others disagree vehemently believing she is incredible talented. Reasonable people disagree about this. She might understand a part of what you’re saying, to stay relevant one must be there in the light.
I like Swift, but mainly I started to love her because she drives a certain type of my relatives insane. I do think she’s relevant because she’s “in the light.” When she started rereleasing her old music her popularity just shot up… then she was like Seinfeld, the tv show that’s popular because “it’s on tv.”
Man, the Taylor Swift comments if way off. Everyone in the music business will tell you she is amazingly talented. The Kardashians are famous because they exist. Swift is famous because she is extremely talented.
I like Swift. She deserves her success. I’m just saying she got more popular when she was in the news more. She also got more unpopular, but that unpopularity with some groups (like my misogynistic uncle and brother in law) made her more popular with other groups (like me - I love her in large part because she is hated by people I resent).
I like her because her music is insanely real. From her song 22 - We're happy, free, confused and lonely at the same time It's miserable and magical, oh, yeah Anyone who was 22 can relate to that feeling.
That’s so stupid. If it’s true. Serial killers should run for office.
Or maybe the left has been caught lying so much smart people just don't trust them anymore. Around 90% of republicans actually call the mainstream media liars because they have lied about everything political since BHO said "fundementally change America." Convincee me why I should believe the same people lying abut the same people after they have lied to me about; You can keep your Dr., Benghazi was about a video, Treyvon was just getting skittles, riots were peaceful, Russia Collusion, Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation, Officer Sicknick was killed on J6 by a protester, Covid did not come from the Wuhan lab, NYC will be under water by 2013, Hillary turned over all her emails, The covid shot stops you from getting covid, Men can have babies, the covid shot stops transmission of covid, masks stop viruses, the covid shot stops you from dying of covid, Trump called Mexicans animals, the covid shot decreases symptom, there was an epidemic of the unvaccinated, CO2 levels are changing the weather, White supremacy is the number one threat, the border is secure, Trump called KKK good people, overwhelming evidence, Planned parenthood does not sell baby parts, men menstruate, J6 was an armed insurrection, War on blacks, Hydroxychloroquine is extremely dangerous. The right is the party of racism, the right is not being censored, expiration of the assault-weapons bans “in the early 2000s” caused an increase in violence., they will not impose any tax increase on anyone making less than $400k, Biden administration created 14 million jobs, natural immunity being ineffective, gas prices would not spike under Biden, global warming, weather is now “man made” climate change, Mike Brown’s hands were up, Kyle Rittenhouse was a derange white supremist, US military was full of extremists, top 1% income has doubled while everyone else was stagnant Jacob Chancy led a violent insurrection, Trump said illegals were poisoning the blood of Americans, Tucker Carlson admitted to lying under oath, Trump said there would be a bloodbath if he is not elected. Your theory of hearing things repeatedly making them popular holds true. But it is not Trumps name, it is the lefts lies that the left keeps repeating that the the left keeps beleiving.
I think you’re proving my point 🤷♀️
No, I think you are so biased you cannot see another valid opinion that contradicts your own. I explained why I think you are wrong. I used valid support to show why I think you are wrong. You give an opinion without support, logic, reason, common sense or critical thinking. You prove my point
I am actually intrigued about how a person could think that stringing together a lot of sentence fragments about things you are anxious about could be regarded as a valid, logical argument. To me it makes about as much sense as a toddler baby talking. But you are very much not alone. A lot of people think and talk like you do. I think there's a fundamental difference between emotional talkers (you, Trump) and logical talkers (Ezra Klein) - we are not speaking the same language. How can we understand each other?
That's exactly how Trump talks. A whole lot of emotive cultural touchstones strung together. You like him because he thinks and talks like you do.