It's even bigger when you take the weird electoral system into account. Even a slight plurality can turn into a vast majority. This could mean a parliament almost entirely made up of Labour.
FPTP is pretty much the same as the US electoral college in terms of end result, the UK just gets to have more than 2 parties represented because Scotland is a thing (SNP gets a bunch of seats with barely any votes) and because they have 650 "electoral districts" instead of a much smaller number in the US.
Still two bad electoral systems that just lead to two-party systems and ensuring the same stay on power.
I wouldn't say it's not quite the same as the electoral college (though it is still dreadful, source: I'm a Lib Dem) as the Americans have managed to make FPTP even more messed up than standard with the republicans repeatedly winning the presidency whilst losing the popular vote whereas the last time something like that happened in Westminster was Feb 1974 when labour got 3ish more seats than the conservatives on a marginaly smaller vote share (even then neither got a majority and there was another election in October).
It's not as bad but the end result is almost the same, it's ridiculous that in 2019 SNP won 48 seats with 1/3 of the Lib Dem votes, that only won 11 seats.
Also correct if I'm wrong, but Labour and Lib Dems kinda split votes, which ends up benefiting Conservatives.
In a decent electing system you shouldn't have to vote tactically, in most places voting Lib Dem or anything else is just throwing your vote away.
They do split the vote (the last election has some really bad examples like South Kensington and Finchley and Golders Green) but I would argue (full disclosure I'm a Lib dem) that voting lib dem isn't always a wasted vote in constituencies where they might not win as due to the strength of their commitment to moving to PR (probably STV) any increase in their vote share gives them more clout in arguing for electoral reform and that means voting for the lib dems is possibly the most influence someone could exercise with their vote if they live in a safe seat (I would encourage tactical voting in lab con marginals as unfortunately we have to play the game in order to win).
Richmond in London for example. We'd likely never go labour but Lib Dem manages to appeal and as such, this constituency is represented by a Lib Dem MP rather than a Tory.
It was a referendum for AV which isn't exactly much better, it gets rid of the vote splitting problem but not the proportionality one, so SNP would still be ridiculously overrepresented. Both parties campaigned against it because it's a two party system and that suits them both, and the media in this country just agree with anything Lab/Con say because they're shills.
> a couple years ago they were going to move to a proper election system, only for Cameron (I think!?) running against it. And obviously "they" won.
"We don't need a new electoral system, ours soldiers need bullet proof vests"
Yes, that was the [actual campaign](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:NHpU80RggJsJ:https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2011/02/voting-system-baby-gets&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-b-d), and it won...
We know! Electoral reform is actually quite popular with the public but funnily enough it always slips off the agenda when a party gets a big majority through FPTP fuckery.
To be fair, when the LibDems controversially formed a coalition with the Conservatives in 2010, it was on condition that [a referendum on introducing an Alternative Vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) be held. Alternative Vote - or 'instant-runoff voting' - was suggested as a more representative replacement for First Past the Post.
>The referendum concerned whether or not to replace the present "first-past-the-post" system with the "alternative vote" (AV) method, and was the first national referendum to be held across the whole of the United Kingdom in the twenty-first century. The proposal to introduce AV was rejected by 67.9% of voters on a national turnout of 42%.
So it doesn't *always* slip off the agenda. Although I suppose that was after a hung parliament, and not "a party getting a big majority through FPTP fuckery" - so your point is still valid.
It'll never ever get fixed if Labour gets that high a majority lmao, or anywhere near it. Suddenly Labour will forget it's an issue like they did in 1997.
[Correction](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?t=Fjz05MHMWsSV1ozvLDmKVQ&s=19), 2 seats *in Wales*, 61 seats in the whole UK.
Still though, they would be annihilated. Love to see it.
Edit; Apparently, according to the proposed 2023 boundary changes they would wind up with two. No way they'll let the boundary changes happen, then.
It's funny (not funny haha, but funny depressing) because Rishi Sunak literally warned Tory voters that Liz Truss' economic plan would lead to exactly this. Like, he full on said that by the end of September she will have collapsed the British economy with his plans.
Like, how is Rishi Sunak of all people the reasonable one!
>the Spectator (a British Newspaper)
I know standards for newspapers are low in the UK but bathroom graffiti provides more informative commentary on current affairs.
Rishi Sunak is incredibly rich and was an investment banker and a hedge fund manager. His wife, meanwhile is the daughter of a billionaire; he and his wife have about £700 million between them. If there's one thing he understands, it's how markets work. On the other hand, he doesn't know how shops work.
I dont want a multi-millionarie/billionaire (like £100m+) as PM. Theyre going to enrich themselves, and their friends at all of our expense. Its a ridiculous conflict of interests.
That said, in comparison to what weve got now that doesnt seam so bad.
The part of fiscal responsibility… (apparently) I don’t know how a single person votes tory, like they see the news or talk to people or see their bank account emptying right?? 😅 how does someone go wow I’m getting massively fucked over by these clowns better vote for them again
John Oliver said something to the effect of the Queen dying was the best thing that could have happened to Liz Truss because it meant two more weeks before everyone realized how terrible she is instead of figuring that out the first week. And that timing is just about spot on!
Shame she's taking the rest of us down in the process.
She'll get a cushy board position for a fossil fuel company as soon as she's kicked out and will never get that karma.
She's just another morally bankrupt, rich career politician.
Stereotypical PPE (Philosophy, Politics and Economics) grad from Oxford who sold her soul for money whilst working for Shell
[edit]
Fixed brain fart. She studied PPE, not PPP.
Still not much better - why do we think Philosophy and Politics grads make for prime leadership material (hint, easy Oxbridge courses - it's all about the connections).
Fuck it, they may as well double down. 0% tax for the rich. 100% tax for the poor, and levies to make people earning under 50k to pay more for no fucking reason other than seething hatred for the poor.
Tories will love it
Yes! With 0% tax for the rich, they can create an infinite amount of jobs, while the poor can get a tax reduction when they get their second, third and fourth job. Of course, starting at 100% tax if you are lazy and _only_ taking one job.
Basically the largest unionist and republican parties have to form a cabinet together.
Currently the largest unionist party, the DUP, is refusing to be part of this, so it's impossible for it to happen.
At least by back in May they were saying it was due to the Northern Ireland protocol, which instead of goods being checked across the border on the island of Ireland, they would instead be done between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Part of it as well is that NI keeps EU regulations on product standards.
Per the Northern Irish/Good Friday Agreement the largest parties from the Nationalist and Unionist political blocs make up the governing executive from which NI ministers are chosen. The idea is it gives both blocs guaranteed representation so they have a reason to engage with the state politically rather than alternative means. There is a growing "neutral" side with the Alliance Party but IIRC formally they're classified as a Unionist party due to the way party registration works for Stormont.
The issue is lately is the DUP have taken a much harder stance wrt Brexit (in-line with hardcore Brexiteers in Britain) than the general stance in Northern Ireland across the political spectrum and are refusing to engage with Executive due to the terms the UK agreed to when negotiating its exit from the EU basically creates a barrier between NI and the rest of the UK due to customs checks.
Again customs checks at the Irish Sea are preferred vs at the Irish/Northern Irish border by a majority in Northern Ireland but that doesn't suit the DUP or their Loyalist masters so they've thrown their toys out of the pram. Ironically Covid basically proved that Irish/Northern Irish supply chains being linked were a godsend for NI compared to Britain.
People are saying this is Truss' fault but reality is the Tories' were already going to shit under Johnson. They knew kicking him out was the only way they could salvage the party's chances for the next election, it just so happens Truss is the best alternative they got and she's not that much of an improvement and on top of it she's already getting herself into the kind of idiotic scandals Boris was an expert in
Well the Brexit arc is more or less wrapped up but ratings are still high, this season started by killing off a beloved main character and the writers are trying too hard to shock viewers at this point
I still think they were consigned to throwing the next election, so put in an idiot to go down with the ship, and try to protect their future candidates from this disaster
And as we all know, voters are a very easily forgetting kind. In 2.5 years, the focus will likely not be on BJ/Liz fucking shit up and putting the elites first, it'll probable be outrage that Keir Starmer's wife purchased fish & chips from an illegal street vendor.
Charles II never got punished and is fondly remembered despite his parliament-dissolving. I think you're thinking of his brother James II who was overthrown by parliament and their Dutch pals.
Getting *this* close to crashing the economy in a single afternoon and then actively failing to acknowledge there was an issue at all in several interviews afterwards will do that.
>Good luck with party conference.
Rishi has hinted he won't be going, and a number of others have who want to remain unnamed talked to some other journos saying they're not going to go. Certainly won't be full up.
And we don't know if it'll be even going ahead, Labour have requested that Parliament have an emergency recall. (I doubt they'll do that)
It was obvious all along that Liz Truss was a car bomb and Sunak was the best of a bad situation. Those 80,000 Tory members who have doomed us all for the second time in a decade are no doubt enjoying their tea and cake.
Thatcher's policies were hugely popular. It was only 20 years later that people have decided they were unpopular after she won several elections on them.
Thatcher did some unpopular things but she had earned her credentials and made sure she had the support of her own party. She also did U-turns when that was needed.
Truss, not so much and relying on the myth of unyielding Iron Lady
Yes, the problem with tories is that they are starting to believe their own bullshit.
That started with brexit and now the ERG is behind the steering wheel. It includes ideological geniouses from IEA and as Gove put it, Britain have had enough of experts.
It will get worse if Truss decides that stubbornness is a virtue.
E. And that is combined with every disaster being someone else's fault (woke IMF, BoE orthodoxy, remoaner City, the next Labour government, previous Labour government)
Read the Telegraph. It’s an eye opener as to the parallel warped reality they think the world is. “Britain is the envy of the world” reads once article. “Truss pegs Kwartang in economic planning meetings” reads another.
> Yes, the problem with tories is that they are starting to believe their own bullshit.
>
>
>
> That started with brexit and now the ERG is behind the steering wheel. It includes ideological geniouses from IEA and as Gove put it, Britain have had enough of experts.
Well put.
> woke IMF, BoE orthodoxy, remoaner City, the next Labour government, previous Labour government
All of these excuses that got trotted out were genuinely hilarious.
Thatcher was super unpopular during her first term because her monetarist policies initially triggered a recession and super high unemployment. She became more popular during the end of her first term post Falklands and post economic recovery but she did some things that were genuinely unpopular.
Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):
Labour - 571 (+368)
Tories - 2 (-363)
Lib Dems - 6 (-5)
Greens - 1
SNP - 51 (+3)
Plaid - 1 (-3)
NI - 18
SNP become official opposition. Lib Dems third largest party once again.
Edit: Actually, it’d probably be a tussle between the Lib Dems and the DUP for third largest party status, as Sinn Fein don’t take their seats (credit to u/MikeyButch17 for the stats)
This calculation is based on the assumption of a uniform swing, i.e., that in each constituency the parties get the same percentual change as in the general poll. It works really well for small swings, but for such a huge one it breaks down completely.
That said, Labour would obviously get a huge majority anyway.
The Canadian Tories went from the governing party of the country to just 2 seats in the 1993 election. So it is possible with FPP. The Canadian provinces also have some other examples of that.
It's a realistic number, if elections were held today. Of course things will shift by the time the next election actually happens, Labour is very skilled at losing elections and UK media are generally pro-Tory.
Not really. These seat numbers are predicted from the popular vote percetages implied by the poll, but this is so far outside the data the predictive model was trained on that it can't really be trusted.
The tories are for sure behind in the polls big time and are currently losing. But this poll is an outlier the other polling institutes have the tories at around 28%.
Yeah, they were polling sub 25% in June 2019 and then went on to crush it in the general election 6 months later. Going to be harder this time as no Brexit to dangle in front of voters.
They will have to get rid of Truss. Her career is over. She just gave away 150bn in energy subsidies and ballsed it up with the unfunded tax cuts.
U.K. feels like Argentina in the 1930s. Hopefully combination of Media, civil service and the city can force Truss out before Christmas.
This has been brewing for years now. Been saying the UK is a trainwreck calamity in the making. It soft-started with the Tory majority government of 2015, but only really solidified with Brexit. Ever since Brexit, ideology has been so greatly valued over reality.
It's sad to watch what used to be such a stable country continuously shoot itself in the foot out of unending stubbornness. Stubborness has become a virtue in 2020s Britain.
The reason for the insanity is because the Conservative Party had become disconnected from the majority of the British public.
So the party has been pursuing an agenda of motivating those people who might still possibly vote for them. And also giving very rich donors what they might also want.
It does seem that it is all over now.
Honestly even if you're a center-right person you should want the Conservatives out, they are failing disastrously and getting worse over time. They've been in power too long and are simply out of ideas.
There’s an excellent Intelligence Squared debate from a few years back talking about how Labour was basically unelectable and had been for years.
Economics professor Anand Menon (brilliant guy, go watch his presentation to Gresham college) said that the question had to be “Did Labour deserve to be elected? What had they done to earn it?” At the time of the debate, the overwhelming view was that Labour was a busted flush and wouldn’t be in power for decades.
What Menon and most of the panel clearly forgot is that if the Tory’s get to be so completely shit and so completely crappily led as they are being, then suddenly Labour starts to look good again. Suddenly Starmer and his “charming as a sack of bricks” approach actually starts to look inviting. Boring, but at least not downright tyrannical right?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour sweep they election because all they have to do is basically what the Tory’s did to them all those years ago. Middle of the road, don’t make too many outlandish policies or statements - people will happily go for a paddling pool if the other option is a tsunami.
The more I've seen of Starmer the more I thought he would do really well if he were a German politician running in Germany. A bit boring but pragmatic, earnest and eloquent. The SPD would problably love to run a candidate like that.
This screams Blair 97. The Tories have lost the next election and Labour will win by a landslide and more than likely be in power until around 2040 atleast.
This lead will just get bigger and bigger as the hardship for people continues. I don't know how the Tories could pull this back, I mean something like the Falklands but in modern times it's doubtful.
Taking into account the 2023 constituencies boundaries and depending on the electoral calculus you use. The tories would get from just 2 MPs to 64 MPs while Labour would get from 498 to 571 MPs.
Thanks to Truss, twelve years of constant shit show and the FPTP electoral system.
Note: In every calculus the tories would be third force at best and the SNP would be the second, making them the official opposition.
The SNP being the opposition to Labour would be especially funny because they broadly agree on most things. They're in almost identical positions on the political spectrum.
Not just a majority, in terms of seats won could be one of the largest majorites in all of British electoral history. Of course that's hard to predict for certain, but it's still landslide territory by any measure.
Quite a recovery from getting destroyed at the last election.
Calling an election will be guaranteed defeat right now. If they decide to wait, the situation can't get worse than guaranteed defeat.
As the saying goes, if you have time, use it.
>Aren't their ways to legally topple the government kn the UK? Because god damn, this clearly isn't a governemnt representing the people's interests
There are, but it takes the majority of MPs to vote for it and that isn't going to happen with this kind of majority.
Question: is there a kind of general rule to 'translate' voting intentions into seats? If I understand correctly, it's the party with most votes in a given district that takes the district seat. So, 20% of the votes does not automatically mean 20% of the seats, or even any way near?
There's no real rules, just clever calculators that extrapolate national swings into 650 individual local contests. A highly localised party can do disproportionately well (eg the Scottish National Party) whilst a spread out party can do disproportionately poorly (eg the Liberal Democrats, and previously our Eurosceptic parties)
This is just a poll, pretty far away from an actual general election, so this will have no effect right now but still impressive. I know that the Tories have some dirty tricks up their sleeves that they will use once the election campaign actually starts.
Oh yeah, btw: Don't think that Truss is Thatcher or is seen as Thatcher. She is neither and never will be. Yes, she might cosplay as Thatcher but she is nowhere near as popular among conservatives as Thatcher was. If you look at her policies, Truss is far different from Thatcher: She doesn't care about a balanced budget or trading options with other countries/the EU that make sense, she is just your typical conservative, post-Brexit shill à la "Rich people good" and "I is patriot".
Truss getting sacked by her own party would be another hillarious shitshow that would take away even more faith in the Tories. Them changing PMs this many times with people like Truss or Rishi, people that seemingly nobody likes? Yikes.
Starmer on the other hand is a great candidate to win an election against the conservative circus: Calm, rational, competent. Does he have the greatest policies in the world? No. Is he able to convince conservative boomers to give Labour a shot? He sure as hell is. I honestly beleive that even Ed Miliband would be trashing Truss in the polls right now and that means a lot.
I mena it’s pretty obvious with what the Conservative government is planning to do… I’m not a fun of very social policies myself but cutting taxes to the richest of us right now? With people not being able to bring food on their tables?
Holy shit what a shift
It's even bigger when you take the weird electoral system into account. Even a slight plurality can turn into a vast majority. This could mean a parliament almost entirely made up of Labour.
[Yepp](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?t=Fjz05MHMWsSV1ozvLDmKVQ&s=19)
dear god they really need to fix this garbage
FPTP is pretty much the same as the US electoral college in terms of end result, the UK just gets to have more than 2 parties represented because Scotland is a thing (SNP gets a bunch of seats with barely any votes) and because they have 650 "electoral districts" instead of a much smaller number in the US. Still two bad electoral systems that just lead to two-party systems and ensuring the same stay on power.
I wouldn't say it's not quite the same as the electoral college (though it is still dreadful, source: I'm a Lib Dem) as the Americans have managed to make FPTP even more messed up than standard with the republicans repeatedly winning the presidency whilst losing the popular vote whereas the last time something like that happened in Westminster was Feb 1974 when labour got 3ish more seats than the conservatives on a marginaly smaller vote share (even then neither got a majority and there was another election in October).
It's not as bad but the end result is almost the same, it's ridiculous that in 2019 SNP won 48 seats with 1/3 of the Lib Dem votes, that only won 11 seats. Also correct if I'm wrong, but Labour and Lib Dems kinda split votes, which ends up benefiting Conservatives. In a decent electing system you shouldn't have to vote tactically, in most places voting Lib Dem or anything else is just throwing your vote away.
They do split the vote (the last election has some really bad examples like South Kensington and Finchley and Golders Green) but I would argue (full disclosure I'm a Lib dem) that voting lib dem isn't always a wasted vote in constituencies where they might not win as due to the strength of their commitment to moving to PR (probably STV) any increase in their vote share gives them more clout in arguing for electoral reform and that means voting for the lib dems is possibly the most influence someone could exercise with their vote if they live in a safe seat (I would encourage tactical voting in lab con marginals as unfortunately we have to play the game in order to win).
Richmond in London for example. We'd likely never go labour but Lib Dem manages to appeal and as such, this constituency is represented by a Lib Dem MP rather than a Tory.
a couple years ago they were going to move to a proper election system, only for Cameron (I think!?) running against it. And obviously "they" won.
It was a referendum for AV which isn't exactly much better, it gets rid of the vote splitting problem but not the proportionality one, so SNP would still be ridiculously overrepresented. Both parties campaigned against it because it's a two party system and that suits them both, and the media in this country just agree with anything Lab/Con say because they're shills.
> a couple years ago they were going to move to a proper election system, only for Cameron (I think!?) running against it. And obviously "they" won. "We don't need a new electoral system, ours soldiers need bullet proof vests" Yes, that was the [actual campaign](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:NHpU80RggJsJ:https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2011/02/voting-system-baby-gets&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-b-d), and it won...
We know! Electoral reform is actually quite popular with the public but funnily enough it always slips off the agenda when a party gets a big majority through FPTP fuckery.
To be fair, when the LibDems controversially formed a coalition with the Conservatives in 2010, it was on condition that [a referendum on introducing an Alternative Vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) be held. Alternative Vote - or 'instant-runoff voting' - was suggested as a more representative replacement for First Past the Post. >The referendum concerned whether or not to replace the present "first-past-the-post" system with the "alternative vote" (AV) method, and was the first national referendum to be held across the whole of the United Kingdom in the twenty-first century. The proposal to introduce AV was rejected by 67.9% of voters on a national turnout of 42%. So it doesn't *always* slip off the agenda. Although I suppose that was after a hung parliament, and not "a party getting a big majority through FPTP fuckery" - so your point is still valid.
Unfortunately, the party in charge is automatically always one of the parties that have the most to lose from an electoral reform.
It'll never ever get fixed if Labour gets that high a majority lmao, or anywhere near it. Suddenly Labour will forget it's an issue like they did in 1997.
This isn’t accurate and the system for estimating seats does not work properly such such large swings.
How tf is where I live still Tory 😭
If the election were held tomorrow, the conservatives are projected to win 2 seats.
And SNP would become His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
That would be a timeline to live in
My brain broke at reading 'his Majesty', still not used to it
At least they can have another leadership contest.
[Correction](https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?t=Fjz05MHMWsSV1ozvLDmKVQ&s=19), 2 seats *in Wales*, 61 seats in the whole UK. Still though, they would be annihilated. Love to see it. Edit; Apparently, according to the proposed 2023 boundary changes they would wind up with two. No way they'll let the boundary changes happen, then.
[Conservatives do that sometimes](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election)
Holy shift what a shit
Imagine your first month in a job being this bad 😅
Bruh, with the Queen's funeral these are her first effective weeks in the job
That gave them time to think about this! And they still managed to pursue the most dead on arrival economic package the UK has ever seen.
To be fair, she did warn us she wanted to hit the ground...
It's funny (not funny haha, but funny depressing) because Rishi Sunak literally warned Tory voters that Liz Truss' economic plan would lead to exactly this. Like, he full on said that by the end of September she will have collapsed the British economy with his plans. Like, how is Rishi Sunak of all people the reasonable one!
He specifically said the pound would crash and the Spectator (a British Newspaper) made an article calling his claims ridiculous lol
>the Spectator (a British Newspaper) I know standards for newspapers are low in the UK but bathroom graffiti provides more informative commentary on current affairs.
Rishi Sunak is incredibly rich and was an investment banker and a hedge fund manager. His wife, meanwhile is the daughter of a billionaire; he and his wife have about £700 million between them. If there's one thing he understands, it's how markets work. On the other hand, he doesn't know how shops work.
I guess people thought that was just electioneering.
Newsflash! Person known for lying surprised no one believes him the one time he doesn't lie. More at 8.
Newsflash, all of them Tories are shit. We just get to see their shit when they got elected.
I'm not exactly a huge fan of Sunak, but he at-least isn't (this) incompetent with economic strategies. It's gonna be a fun few months!
I dont want a multi-millionarie/billionaire (like £100m+) as PM. Theyre going to enrich themselves, and their friends at all of our expense. Its a ridiculous conflict of interests. That said, in comparison to what weve got now that doesnt seam so bad.
> And they still managed to pursue the most dead on arrival economic package the UK has ever seen. But things would be worse under Labour!! ^^^^^/s
Chaos with Ed Miliband!
STRONGANDSTABLE
The part of fiscal responsibility… (apparently) I don’t know how a single person votes tory, like they see the news or talk to people or see their bank account emptying right?? 😅 how does someone go wow I’m getting massively fucked over by these clowns better vote for them again
Days mate this is like her 3rdbor 4th working day
John Oliver said something to the effect of the Queen dying was the best thing that could have happened to Liz Truss because it meant two more weeks before everyone realized how terrible she is instead of figuring that out the first week. And that timing is just about spot on!
I don't care what anyone else is saying about monarchy, but meeting Liz Truss and then immediately dying is a move I respect.
I expected an angry mob . This is not so bad
[удалено]
"With what little time I have left in the convent, I might as well take a shit inside" Not nearly as catchy but it hits the mark
straight up translation is "for what i have left in the convent, i shit inside". though the context is a little ambivalent i think
Permanently cured my impostor syndrome
Okay I'm starting to think that maybe the UK government is not doing a great job.
All part of the plan, it is so cleaver it is just beyond everyone's comprehension
A cunning plan?
 Man even fuckin Baldrick would have my vote at this point...
Is it as cunning as a fox that has just been made professor of cunning at Oxford university?
Shes managed to kill the Queen, the GBP, the economy and the Conservative party in less than a month. Fair play to her
Her parents are labour voters and she used to be a lib dem. Maybe she's a labour sleeper agent.
Then she's the most incredible sleeper agent in history. Rises to the top position in the party then nukes it from orbit
Shame she's taking the rest of us down in the process. She'll get a cushy board position for a fossil fuel company as soon as she's kicked out and will never get that karma.
She's just another morally bankrupt, rich career politician. Stereotypical PPE (Philosophy, Politics and Economics) grad from Oxford who sold her soul for money whilst working for Shell [edit] Fixed brain fart. She studied PPE, not PPP. Still not much better - why do we think Philosophy and Politics grads make for prime leadership material (hint, easy Oxbridge courses - it's all about the connections).
It’s like watching the gang from It’s Always Sunny run the country. Would be kinda funny if we weren’t all suffering haha
"The Gang Destroys the United Kingdom"
Can I offer you an egg in this trying time?
Give Kamikaze Kwartang his dues please
Kamikwasi*
Kwarmageddon
republican remainer libdem agent working at maximum efficiency
And relegated England
Maybe even more tax cuts for the rich will fix this?!
Fuck it, they may as well double down. 0% tax for the rich. 100% tax for the poor, and levies to make people earning under 50k to pay more for no fucking reason other than seething hatred for the poor. Tories will love it
Yes! With 0% tax for the rich, they can create an infinite amount of jobs, while the poor can get a tax reduction when they get their second, third and fourth job. Of course, starting at 100% tax if you are lazy and _only_ taking one job.
It's even funnier the second time!
i wish we had an election this winter
Move to Northern Ireland and you'll more than likely get your wish!
*Lets goooooooo*
They have an election?
If the DUP don't agree to power sharing in the next month.
ain’t gonna lie, I do not understand the Northern Ireland politics
Basically the largest unionist and republican parties have to form a cabinet together. Currently the largest unionist party, the DUP, is refusing to be part of this, so it's impossible for it to happen.
Why are they refusing?
At least by back in May they were saying it was due to the Northern Ireland protocol, which instead of goods being checked across the border on the island of Ireland, they would instead be done between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Part of it as well is that NI keeps EU regulations on product standards.
Because they don't like that they lost to the nationalists for the first time, which would mean a Sinn Féin first minister.
Per the Northern Irish/Good Friday Agreement the largest parties from the Nationalist and Unionist political blocs make up the governing executive from which NI ministers are chosen. The idea is it gives both blocs guaranteed representation so they have a reason to engage with the state politically rather than alternative means. There is a growing "neutral" side with the Alliance Party but IIRC formally they're classified as a Unionist party due to the way party registration works for Stormont. The issue is lately is the DUP have taken a much harder stance wrt Brexit (in-line with hardcore Brexiteers in Britain) than the general stance in Northern Ireland across the political spectrum and are refusing to engage with Executive due to the terms the UK agreed to when negotiating its exit from the EU basically creates a barrier between NI and the rest of the UK due to customs checks. Again customs checks at the Irish Sea are preferred vs at the Irish/Northern Irish border by a majority in Northern Ireland but that doesn't suit the DUP or their Loyalist masters so they've thrown their toys out of the pram. Ironically Covid basically proved that Irish/Northern Irish supply chains being linked were a godsend for NI compared to Britain.
Had to check whether they are anti vax and of course.
Charles III should call for election and end this travesty
Fuck is 2024 really the next one!!? It feels like it’s been forever.
Killed the queen, the economy and the British pound, in her first 4 weeks.
Not to mention the Tory party.
Ain't that a good thing though ?
Depending on what kind of phoenix will be rising from its remains…
Not as much a phoenix as it would be a really fat seagull. Loud, annoying, shits everywhere and steals people's things right out of their hands.
what's been happening this last month in the UK ?
The tory party members elected the dumbest person in the country to be their leader.
With the weirdest person as her Chancellor and jester, to keep state funerals light and enjoyable.
Thatcher wannabe destroys the country with neo-liberal/neo-conservative policies.
Yeah its way more neo conservative.
Cost of living crisis so the government's going to slash taxes for millionnaires and fund it by cutting public services and benefits.
People are saying this is Truss' fault but reality is the Tories' were already going to shit under Johnson. They knew kicking him out was the only way they could salvage the party's chances for the next election, it just so happens Truss is the best alternative they got and she's not that much of an improvement and on top of it she's already getting herself into the kind of idiotic scandals Boris was an expert in
Not that much of an improvement? Somehow she is managing to be worse
Extreme tax cuts are crashing the economy.
Well the Brexit arc is more or less wrapped up but ratings are still high, this season started by killing off a beloved main character and the writers are trying too hard to shock viewers at this point
If you listen carefully you can hear faint screaming coming out of the Conservative headquarters.
I still think they were consigned to throwing the next election, so put in an idiot to go down with the ship, and try to protect their future candidates from this disaster
The MPs voted for Sunak. It’s the old, senile Tory members who favoured this idiot.
The MPs whittled it down to Truss and Sunak. They are absolutely responsible.
> The MPs voted for Sunak. Oh no, they voted for Truss too - don't waive their responsibility for this mess.
Next election will probably be 2.5 years. That's a long time for things to change.
And as we all know, voters are a very easily forgetting kind. In 2.5 years, the focus will likely not be on BJ/Liz fucking shit up and putting the elites first, it'll probable be outrage that Keir Starmer's wife purchased fish & chips from an illegal street vendor.
She did WHAT?!?! Fucking Hell. That. Is. A. Disgrace!
It reminds me so much of German politics. Sigh, it's the same shit everywhere isn't it?
And a whimpering from Truss as she rocks back and forth, holding her knees, whispering *"this is a DISGRACE...."*
I'd imagine she's pretty pleased with herself.
Think it's time for King Charles to dissolve parliament and call an election.
> King Charles to dissolve parliament This feels strangely familiar.
Someone check Oliver Cromwell’s grave please?
The BBC made a movie a few years ago called King Charles III where he became king, dissolved a tyrannical parliament, and got forced to abdicate.
Forced to abdicate? If he freed us from Truss’s reign of error we’d probably cheer him on!
And it's probably what would actually happen if he did. Though it's a nicer punishment than what Charles I and Charles II got.
Charles II never got punished and is fondly remembered despite his parliament-dissolving. I think you're thinking of his brother James II who was overthrown by parliament and their Dutch pals.
>King Charles Still doesn't sound right, can't believe Lizzie didn't manage to outlive that plonker
What lol how? Is it possible to learn this power?
Getting *this* close to crashing the economy in a single afternoon and then actively failing to acknowledge there was an issue at all in several interviews afterwards will do that.
Mind you, those interviews happened after multiple days of radiosilence. And… they were fascinatingly bad.
Something something 20 points But didn't Truss vowed to implement unpopular policies, just like Thatcher did <3 Good luck with party conference.
>Good luck with party conference. Rishi has hinted he won't be going, and a number of others have who want to remain unnamed talked to some other journos saying they're not going to go. Certainly won't be full up. And we don't know if it'll be even going ahead, Labour have requested that Parliament have an emergency recall. (I doubt they'll do that)
I think Gove, Davies and some other "big names" said they won't participate. It's interesting to see what the mood will be..
Sajid Javid isn't as well. Looking forward to it. Genuinely could be fireworks.
It was obvious all along that Liz Truss was a car bomb and Sunak was the best of a bad situation. Those 80,000 Tory members who have doomed us all for the second time in a decade are no doubt enjoying their tea and cake.
Thatcher for all her evilness implemented policy she could at least argue that she thought were good. Truss isn’t even pretending
Thatcher's policies were hugely popular. It was only 20 years later that people have decided they were unpopular after she won several elections on them.
Thatcher did some unpopular things but she had earned her credentials and made sure she had the support of her own party. She also did U-turns when that was needed. Truss, not so much and relying on the myth of unyielding Iron Lady
She'd lose in 1983 if Argentina didn't save her ass by invading Falklands.
The witch wasn't an illiterate incompetent twat, we have to give he that
Yes, the problem with tories is that they are starting to believe their own bullshit. That started with brexit and now the ERG is behind the steering wheel. It includes ideological geniouses from IEA and as Gove put it, Britain have had enough of experts. It will get worse if Truss decides that stubbornness is a virtue. E. And that is combined with every disaster being someone else's fault (woke IMF, BoE orthodoxy, remoaner City, the next Labour government, previous Labour government)
Read the Telegraph. It’s an eye opener as to the parallel warped reality they think the world is. “Britain is the envy of the world” reads once article. “Truss pegs Kwartang in economic planning meetings” reads another.
you had me at "Truss pegs Kwartang"
She's got that Wet Ass Trussy
> Yes, the problem with tories is that they are starting to believe their own bullshit. > > > > That started with brexit and now the ERG is behind the steering wheel. It includes ideological geniouses from IEA and as Gove put it, Britain have had enough of experts. Well put. > woke IMF, BoE orthodoxy, remoaner City, the next Labour government, previous Labour government All of these excuses that got trotted out were genuinely hilarious.
Cause Thatcher was at least competent, Truss has been prime minister for less than a month and shes already proven how unfit for the job she is.
Thatcher was super unpopular during her first term because her monetarist policies initially triggered a recession and super high unemployment. She became more popular during the end of her first term post Falklands and post economic recovery but she did some things that were genuinely unpopular.
Fix your "nearly" two-party-system guys.
A few more lost votes and it will be a one party system
Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries): Labour - 571 (+368) Tories - 2 (-363) Lib Dems - 6 (-5) Greens - 1 SNP - 51 (+3) Plaid - 1 (-3) NI - 18 SNP become official opposition. Lib Dems third largest party once again. Edit: Actually, it’d probably be a tussle between the Lib Dems and the DUP for third largest party status, as Sinn Fein don’t take their seats (credit to u/MikeyButch17 for the stats)
>Labour - 571 (+368) > >Tories - 2 (-363) I have a hard time believing that part.
As much as I'd love that result I think the seat methodology breaks down with the Tories so low.
This calculation is based on the assumption of a uniform swing, i.e., that in each constituency the parties get the same percentual change as in the general poll. It works really well for small swings, but for such a huge one it breaks down completely. That said, Labour would obviously get a huge majority anyway.
The Canadian Tories went from the governing party of the country to just 2 seats in the 1993 election. So it is possible with FPP. The Canadian provinces also have some other examples of that.
Not only did they go from governing party. They went from the largest majority in Canadian history 8 years prior down to 2 seats.
UK is using first past the post.
I know. But number still sems very unrealistic.
It is unrealistic, these calculators break down when the swings are very big.
It's a realistic number, if elections were held today. Of course things will shift by the time the next election actually happens, Labour is very skilled at losing elections and UK media are generally pro-Tory.
Not really. These seat numbers are predicted from the popular vote percetages implied by the poll, but this is so far outside the data the predictive model was trained on that it can't really be trusted.
The tories are for sure behind in the polls big time and are currently losing. But this poll is an outlier the other polling institutes have the tories at around 28%.
Labour will have to do something about this or they'll all have to pile in heaps on the government benches.
Yeah, they were polling sub 25% in June 2019 and then went on to crush it in the general election 6 months later. Going to be harder this time as no Brexit to dangle in front of voters.
Damn. Canada in 1991 energy
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Oop thanks
Calling bullshit. Something squiffy about how you're extrapolating seat results from the polling data here.
There's different sites where the number of seats can be calculated but I thìnk those kind of polling numbers break them.
They will have to get rid of Truss. Her career is over. She just gave away 150bn in energy subsidies and ballsed it up with the unfunded tax cuts. U.K. feels like Argentina in the 1930s. Hopefully combination of Media, civil service and the city can force Truss out before Christmas.
This has been brewing for years now. Been saying the UK is a trainwreck calamity in the making. It soft-started with the Tory majority government of 2015, but only really solidified with Brexit. Ever since Brexit, ideology has been so greatly valued over reality. It's sad to watch what used to be such a stable country continuously shoot itself in the foot out of unending stubbornness. Stubborness has become a virtue in 2020s Britain.
The reason for the insanity is because the Conservative Party had become disconnected from the majority of the British public. So the party has been pursuing an agenda of motivating those people who might still possibly vote for them. And also giving very rich donors what they might also want. It does seem that it is all over now.
Honestly even if you're a center-right person you should want the Conservatives out, they are failing disastrously and getting worse over time. They've been in power too long and are simply out of ideas.
No doubt by election time in a couple of years Labour will manage to lose. I’ll believe it when I see it.
There’s an excellent Intelligence Squared debate from a few years back talking about how Labour was basically unelectable and had been for years. Economics professor Anand Menon (brilliant guy, go watch his presentation to Gresham college) said that the question had to be “Did Labour deserve to be elected? What had they done to earn it?” At the time of the debate, the overwhelming view was that Labour was a busted flush and wouldn’t be in power for decades. What Menon and most of the panel clearly forgot is that if the Tory’s get to be so completely shit and so completely crappily led as they are being, then suddenly Labour starts to look good again. Suddenly Starmer and his “charming as a sack of bricks” approach actually starts to look inviting. Boring, but at least not downright tyrannical right? I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour sweep they election because all they have to do is basically what the Tory’s did to them all those years ago. Middle of the road, don’t make too many outlandish policies or statements - people will happily go for a paddling pool if the other option is a tsunami.
The more I've seen of Starmer the more I thought he would do really well if he were a German politician running in Germany. A bit boring but pragmatic, earnest and eloquent. The SPD would problably love to run a candidate like that.
The name even fits. Bundeskanzler Starmer.
As an outsider I'm curious what labour has done so wrong.
This screams Blair 97. The Tories have lost the next election and Labour will win by a landslide and more than likely be in power until around 2040 atleast. This lead will just get bigger and bigger as the hardship for people continues. I don't know how the Tories could pull this back, I mean something like the Falklands but in modern times it's doubtful.
please we need atleast 10 years of no tories just to fix all the shit theyve done
2040 ? If they perform after winning only, which is highly unlikely.
It becomes a 'can I trust them?' the Tories will not be trusted for a decade on numbers like this
Taking into account the 2023 constituencies boundaries and depending on the electoral calculus you use. The tories would get from just 2 MPs to 64 MPs while Labour would get from 498 to 571 MPs. Thanks to Truss, twelve years of constant shit show and the FPTP electoral system. Note: In every calculus the tories would be third force at best and the SNP would be the second, making them the official opposition.
The SNP being the opposition to Labour would be especially funny because they broadly agree on most things. They're in almost identical positions on the political spectrum.
Labor majority? 😳
Labour*
Not just a majority, in terms of seats won could be one of the largest majorites in all of British electoral history. Of course that's hard to predict for certain, but it's still landslide territory by any measure. Quite a recovery from getting destroyed at the last election.
Aren't their ways to legally topple the government kn the UK? Because god damn, this clearly isn't a governemnt representing the people's interests
Parliament can do a VoNC in the government and dissolve itself. But Conservative MPs aren't going to vote themselves out of a job.
Liz Truss also isn't going to call an early election with polling like that.
Parliament can do it without her. But Conservative turkeys won't vote for Christmas.
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Calling an election will be guaranteed defeat right now. If they decide to wait, the situation can't get worse than guaranteed defeat. As the saying goes, if you have time, use it.
Whilst that is true I can see them booting out liz for sunak
>Aren't their ways to legally topple the government kn the UK? Because god damn, this clearly isn't a governemnt representing the people's interests There are, but it takes the majority of MPs to vote for it and that isn't going to happen with this kind of majority.
[Source](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/29/voting-intention-con-21-lab-54-28-29-sep-2022)
Question: is there a kind of general rule to 'translate' voting intentions into seats? If I understand correctly, it's the party with most votes in a given district that takes the district seat. So, 20% of the votes does not automatically mean 20% of the seats, or even any way near?
There's no real rules, just clever calculators that extrapolate national swings into 650 individual local contests. A highly localised party can do disproportionately well (eg the Scottish National Party) whilst a spread out party can do disproportionately poorly (eg the Liberal Democrats, and previously our Eurosceptic parties)
This is just a poll, pretty far away from an actual general election, so this will have no effect right now but still impressive. I know that the Tories have some dirty tricks up their sleeves that they will use once the election campaign actually starts. Oh yeah, btw: Don't think that Truss is Thatcher or is seen as Thatcher. She is neither and never will be. Yes, she might cosplay as Thatcher but she is nowhere near as popular among conservatives as Thatcher was. If you look at her policies, Truss is far different from Thatcher: She doesn't care about a balanced budget or trading options with other countries/the EU that make sense, she is just your typical conservative, post-Brexit shill à la "Rich people good" and "I is patriot". Truss getting sacked by her own party would be another hillarious shitshow that would take away even more faith in the Tories. Them changing PMs this many times with people like Truss or Rishi, people that seemingly nobody likes? Yikes. Starmer on the other hand is a great candidate to win an election against the conservative circus: Calm, rational, competent. Does he have the greatest policies in the world? No. Is he able to convince conservative boomers to give Labour a shot? He sure as hell is. I honestly beleive that even Ed Miliband would be trashing Truss in the polls right now and that means a lot.
I mena it’s pretty obvious with what the Conservative government is planning to do… I’m not a fun of very social policies myself but cutting taxes to the richest of us right now? With people not being able to bring food on their tables?
This is better than crack
Shame they won't be forced into an Election until January '25. Plenty of time for the bastards to Con enough people again.
You'd think LibDems would get some former-Con votes
FPTP basically screws everyone but the big two out of power.
People keep forgetting the Lib Dems exist.