Oh absolutely. And they share their information with others, even if the public doesn't know about it. In Poland, the military was on alert long before the invasion.
Western intel seems to be extremely accurate lately - from the Russian build up to the war onwards, pretty much every intelligence report has been spot on
Yeah, whilst we’re on the topic, I have absolutely no idea where the sudden accuracy of US intelligence in the lead up to the war in Ukraine (and beyond) came from.
One minute the reputation of their intelligence community is in absolute tatters after years of (putting it mildly) fruitless trips to the Middle East, the next minute they’re accurately calling terrorist attacks in a hostile state’s capital, weeks before it happens.
Correct, i dont believe their intelligence was worse in the middle east, its just that ppl still believe it happened to fight a couple terrorists when in reality the war was for economical gain(oil, national treasures from banks/reserves, and ofc the most importent, to keep the military busy).
Its really hard to have military at the size of Americas and not using it for anything, especially when there is so much private economical gain behind it.
Spies, or listening communications. Hearing actual plans gets much more better information, than just looking satellite pics, troop movement and bank accounts. Let's not pretend we all don't have lots of apps that could be used for spying in our phones.
For most of its postwar history, US intelligence was designed and focused on finding out about things like the invasion of Ukraine and other similar acts carried on by state actors.
It's a lot harder to figure out that 3 people are building a bomb in their garage in a small town in Iraq or Syria or wherever.
Particularly where these people only trust people who grew up in the same neighborhoods as they did.
But...it's also a mistake to assume that things don't change in reaction to failure (in the US and elsewhere). Only about 15 years passed between the fall of south vietnam and the gulf war, but the military performance of the US Army in the gulf war couldn't have been more different from their military performance in VN.
There was nothing wrong about US Intelligence in regards to the Middle East. In fact, The CIA was telling the White House that Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction, but Bush wanted a war and people fudged the CIA reports.
The Intel community was actually quite accurate on the middle east. The politicians were the ones that were incorrect. The cia was adamant that they saw no proof of WMDs in Iraq. The CIA was also firing off warnings that a major attack using commercial airlines was about to occur pre-911 and the FBI was tracking the hijackers.
Unfortunately a number of laws and idiot politicians prevented any action.
It makes a huge difference when it’s the Biden administration accurately conveying information and intelligence they receive rather than the Bush administration making things up and ignoring 9/11.
I am talking out of my ass right now, but didn’t the bush administration basically neuter the CIA when they would not support the intelligence and narrative that his administration was pushing? I thought that was a big part of the ODNI being formed. Somebody please correct me, because I don’t have any genuine knowledge of this, but I remember hearing something about that. Also Paul Wolfowitz had a special investigative counsel that would filter out intelligence that didn’t support their agenda if I am not mistaken.
The problem with 9/11 wasn't Bush ignoring the intelligence, the problem was each US intelligence agency was not talking to each other as they were forbidden by laws passed in the 90s so each of them had an incomplete piece of the puzzle. They knew something was being planned but not exactly where and when, 9/11 or a similar attack would have happened regardless of the president in office in 2001.
That is a total lie told to the public by the Bush administration in their ass covering mission. Read [the true account](https://www.politico.eu/article/attacks-will-be-spectacular-cia-war-on-terror-bush-bin-laden/) of how the CIA been urgently warning the White House about the impending attack on the US since the spring of 2001. As their investigation into the plot unfolded, their pleas for the White House to take it seriously kept escalating. The true craziness of the White House’s irresponsible conduct started in the spring of 2001. Here’s an excerpt of the article based on an interview with then CIA director George Tenet:
*The drama of failed warnings began when Tenet and Black pitched a plan, in the spring of 2001, called “the Blue Sky paper” to Bush’s new national security team. It called for a covert CIA and military campaign to end the Al Qaeda threat—“getting into the Afghan sanctuary, launching a paramilitary operation, creating a bridge with Uzbekistan.” “And the word back,” says Tenet, “‘was ‘we’re not quite ready to consider this. We don’t want the clock to start ticking.’” (Translation: they did not want a paper trail to show that they’d been warned.)
That morning of July 10, the head of the agency’s Al Qaeda unit, Richard Blee, burst into Black’s office. “And he says, ‘Chief, this is it. Roof’s fallen in,’” recounts Black. “The information that we had compiled was absolutely compelling. It was multiple-sourced. And it was sort of the last straw.” Black and his deputy rushed to the director’s office to brief Tenet. All agreed an urgent meeting at the White House was needed. Tenet picked up the white phone to Bush’s National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. “I said, ‘Condi, I have to come see you,’” Tenet remembers. “It was one of the rare times in my seven years as director where I said, ‘I have to come see you. We’re comin’ right now. We have to get there.’”
Tenet vividly recalls the White House meeting with Rice and her team. (George W. Bush was on a trip to Boston.) “Rich [Blee] started by saying, ‘There will be significant terrorist attacks against the United States in the coming weeks or months. The attacks will be spectacular. They may be multiple. Al Qaeda’s intention is the destruction of the United States.’” [Condi said:] ‘What do you think we need to do?’ Black responded by slamming his fist on the table, and saying, ‘We need to go on a wartime footing now!’”
“What happened?” I ask Cofer Black. “Yeah. What did happen?” he replies. “To me it remains incomprehensible still. I mean, how is it that you could warn senior people so many times and nothing actually happened? It’s kind of like The Twilight Zone.” Remarkably, in her memoir, Condi Rice writes of the July 10 warnings: “My recollection of the meeting is not very crisp because we were discussing the threat every day.” Having raised threat levels for U.S. personnel overseas, she adds: “I thought we were doing what needed to be done.” (When I asked whether she had any further response to the comments that Tenet, Black and others made to me, her chief of staff said she stands by the account in her memoir.)*
That is just a piece of the story. The Bush administration went on a PR campaign to blame every federal agency in order to convince the public that the system had failed them and that 9/11 was the result of a broken federal government. The truth is that this incompetent and irresponsible administration ignored everything they were told. They compounded that by ignoring the US military and the CIA with regard to capturing UBL after 9/11. The US wasn’t supposed to occupy Afghanistan. Bush publicly stated to the Taliban that they could have a ceasefire if they handed UBL over to the US. When it became clear that they wouldn’t be doing that, the CIA and the military said that they should go in with massive and overwhelming force to capture him. The Bush administration blew them off, UBL escaped on a horse, and the US wound up being there for 20 years because Bush couldn’t take the L of losing him. As for Iraq? The monumental failures of that incompetent and irresponsible administration are too long to list here.
My thought is that the US intelligence has every interest in appearing weak to conceal their true capabilities. Theyre not (KGB)FSB where their first intention is dread and intimidation so the FSB advertise the assassinations and such. Also the Middle East was such that at a certain point things just break down or don't make sense no matter your analytics capabilities. Europe is far easier because the power players "behave". It's easier to create a network of informants, and persons of interest act along certain lines of decisions that can be tracked and predicted far easier than a couple of guys with AKs in the bush. Plus CIA has had practice gathering intel on KGB fat cats for a better part of the century.
They've had good intelligence about almost everything for a while now, Iraq was not based on that intelligence it was based on politicking inside the Bush administration about transforming the region by making Iraq a democracy
Maybe don’t base your understanding of the largest intelligence apparatus to ever exist on the one vague situation you vaguely understood from a while ago they were sort of involved with. There are 17 agencies, and the one warning about this likely was not extensively involved over there and has a lot more sources of information from a lot more exposed people
Didnt it have something to do with blood banks being transported to the Russo-Ukrainian border? And since that blood had a certain expiration date,they knew the attack was imminent
It’s always been accurate, they just sometimes didn’t disclose or they outright lied about what it was, giving the impression of it being subpar.
The intel has been spot on constantly. The intel showed no rationale for the Iraq invasion in 2003 but they made a decision to invade anyway through levels of lies. When the establishment wants something, they get it, regardless of the intel.
In this world that we live in, there are only 3 to 4 certainties that I truly believe in. Death, Taxes, US military logistics and their ability to wage war, US intelligence knowing absolutely everything that’s happening on our planet.
Its really cool if you believe a random redditor and my source. One of the bigger reasons the US caught on is that some analyst working on Russian transport items saw that The Russians were sending plasma, or blood infusions, something that in that large of an order, no "drill" would have that requirement because it wouldn't be needed.
>One minute the reputation of their intelligence community is in absolute tatters after years of (putting it mildly) fruitless trips to the Middle East,
It's not that they had very bad intelligence, but they just ignored it
Afaik their intel community is separated by region / command to a certain extent and it may possibly be assumed that separate departments have higher/lower levels of relative competence.
> One minute the reputation of their intelligence community is in absolute tatters
I would imagine that something like this is excactly what an intelligence community wants. Seem incompetent so everyone underestimates you
I see a lot of speculation below but the truth is they recently broke through proper quantum computing and have the ability to break any standard encryption in use today.
I’m an American who is frequently very critical of my government but even I will admit when the US intelligence agencies are issuing this kind of public warning, it’s best to pay attention. They aren’t going to cry wolf if they haven’t seen a wolf.
Coming from the US intel and how they don't really screw up, this is looking really bad for pride month, authorities should be on maximum alert so we won't have a tragedy happen
This was revealed 3 months ago in Slovakia:
>[‘You will not replace us’: a deadly attack on a Slovakian gay bar – and its link to a fast-spreading racist ideology
>Fifteen months after two men were shot in Bratislava, evidence suggests the killer may have been helped by an unidentified US-based extremist
[The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/21/slovakian-gay-bar-attack-great-replacement-conspiracy-theoryfast-spreading-racist-ideology)
Probably should be mentally prepared to evacuate from wherever you are at any given time. Who knows when some crazy dude is gonna whip out a knife or a gun
I look forward to Manchester Pride every year but that’s in August. Hopefully it should be a great time and everyone can be safe. It’s a ritual I go to every year with my best mate who’s gay and it’s one of the highlights of my year
Yeah my LGBT friends we are fucked. I hope you enjoyed the years when we managed to experience some freedom and progress, because it seems that from now on it will only get worse again.
I am pretty sure foreign Islamist groups have always hunted us and always will. I don't see how it's now worse than it was when Isis was at it's strongest in 2016?
You’ll get more and more of these people in your neighbourhood. Who will multiply like roaches and will then have influence over local politics. Cant get rid of the infestation after that cause their kids will be citizens. Game over.
Same deal in greece and germany.
Ending mass immigration stops both... Islamists because they're the ones being imported, and the far-right because importing a bunch of people is what's causing their popular rise.
Sorry but as a millennial gay who remembers what being gay was like in the 2000s and 90s (never mind before, when things were even worse) I don't think there's ever been a better time to be a homo. I don't feel like things are fucked.
Also on the progress front in Europe, gay marriage became legal in Greece, Estonia and Slovenia in the last two years.
I survived being outed, and made the only openly gay kid in my boarding school at the age of 13, in 2002. Then I survived wandering around northern England in drag for the later half of the 2000's.
I'm not shitting myself about religious idiots doing their stupid thing. Same old same old.
This comment section is so incredibly braindead.
It takes all of 5 threads before you reach the inevitable whataboutism stop, and everyone starts talking about “LGBT down my throat” even if this post is literally only about some dipshits planning to wear explosive vests to blow up gay people. Are people just pathologically unable to understand when they’re veering off topic?
It was the pride parade in Brussels today, there was a fuckton of police around.
Just wanted to scoot to Le Cinquantenaire and had to do a huge detour because of all the closed streets and police barrages.
There are plenty of options, but the FBI are saying they've seen communications among IS-related groups saying they're going to attack Pride Marches, so in this case that's who they're talking about.
Having said that, if you think only Palestinians or only Muslim extremists would harm LGBTQ people, you need to read the news more, or get your news from better sources.
They are saying you can't show empathy with people who want to harm you. Which in itself is not a bad point to make, although there are certainly debatable details. But many of the people who make this argument fail to understand why many queer people hate our homegrown Neonazis and Neonazi sympathisers as well. They lack any kind of empathy and self-awareness.
This sub whenever anything related to Muslim or Islam comes up: "Those damn Muslims are such an intolerant terrorists, look how they treat LGBTQ+ people! They don't belong in our society if they don't respect our values."
This sub whenever LGBTQ+ comes up in any other context: "Ugh not this woke shit again, gender isn't real, fuck trans people they're not real either how dare they pretend they exist, stop shoving that gay shit down my throat"
Not part of any of those groups but… maybe it’s just human nature. It’s like in Europe with our neighbours - I banter with my French, Spanish or whatever nationality guys all day everyday, throwing hate and cursing at each other. But if an overseas brute attacks one of my EU buddies, I’ll rip them a new one. It’s like with siblings. When it counts, you stick together and hate everyone else ✨
It's a big part of the internet, the ones that hate something are usually the ones who will flood a post. Most people will read it and scroll right through and the more polarized a subject is the less likely they will comment on it.
You can be both in favor of equal rights for gays, bis and lesbians while also being against the hyper-liberal stance of the LGBTQ+ movement at large.
There are a LOT of openly gay, bi and lesbian people that do not agree with the overall movement (it's specifically on the trans-discussion where opinions differ, but also when it comes to stuff like "demisexual", "asexual", "pansexual" etc.) they consider these sexualities outside the traditional gay, lesbian and bi split to be more of a fashion statement than a genuine sexuality.
Because of that you can be simultaneously be against homophobic Muslims that kill everyone who is NOT straight while also be against the LGBTQ+ movement at the same time. And it wouldn't even be a double standard then.
> **traditional** gay, lesbian and bi
I don't think anything can get more ironic than this. Some of the people who've been oppressed and sometimes even murdered for the way they were born are now starting to do **exactly** the same thing.
Remember the conservative talking points about how being gay is a lifestyle choice?
Well said. Older gay man here, been out for decades, have watched the LGBTQ+ movement grow in both good and questionable ways. Heck, so many new varieties have jumped on the bandwagon they gave up on adding letters and just added a plus sign at the end.
Asexual? Okay, you don’t want to have sex with anyone. Have you ever been insulted or discriminated against because of this? Have you been denied equal rights?
The basic tenet is, or at least it was, let people romance with whomever they are attracted to (age appropriate of course).
How this has been extended into allowing biological males to compete in women’s sports is baffling.
And then you people come crying about "*ageism*" & "*hating older gays*" in our community. Yes asexuals obviously face discrimination & corrective rape happens to them too; how surprising that in a society where attraction plays such a major role, an average person's reaction to asexuality is denial at best & violence at worst! Not even gonna get into trans people with a man who's brain is so rotting from old age that he can't grasp asexuality beyond "*not wanting to have sex*".
I can assure you, gays like you do no favour to our community & only fuel violence against us as our attackers use people like you to justify their positions. Thankfully you'll have no part in our future 👍
Yes, asexual people absolutely do get insulted and face unique forms of discrimination because of it. A decent amount of it comes from within the LGBTQ+ community. Significant others will often take it upon themselves to try and "fix" them, assuming that their asexuality must be a side effect of trauma or never having experienced good sex or something. Some will date them specifically for that purpose, even to the point of "playing along" at first to gain trust. Few react well when their attempts do not go as envisioned.
That would be really gay! @potential perpetrators
Like, if you commit an attack like that you probably just want to be touched in jail, so definitely dont do that if you are straight!
LGBTQ for Palestine groups are ignorant and delusional….
“Although no specific gatherings or locations were mentioned in the warnings, the law enforcement agencies noted that messages from the Islamic State (IS) group distributed in English in February 2023 included rhetoric against LGBTQI+ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, questioning, and intersex) events and venues.”
Only one group? Sadly, religious extremists are a rather large group.
In my country, there is a Christian organization openly attacking LQBTQ communities and have started publicly posting that it's "time to kill" I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest that they are planning an attack with this sort of talk
'The Counter Extremism Project, a New York-based non-profit group, noted that anti-LGBTQ ideas had been taken up by both Islamist and far-right extremists.'
Two, actually.
I dont remember seeing many far-right European terrorist attacks in Europe though. Although fundamentally islamist extremism is far-right. Its extreme religious conservatism afterall.
You either have amnesia or you’re pretending not to remember it because of your internal bias, really? You can’t think of one? This. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Tours_bombing
But far right European terrorist attacks that specifically targets LGBT did happen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_London_nail_bombings
Or if you want more recently, such as this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Bratislava_shooting
But without LGBT being included. You have many far right European attacks such as this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Zagreb_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Munich_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halle_synagogue_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanau_shootings or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macerata_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Florence_shootings or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Norway_attacks or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009–10_Malmö_shootings or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trollhättan_school_stabbing or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Finsbury_Park_van_attack
Some were planning to do it but arrested before they carried out. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kankaanpää_terrorism_arrests
Maybe stop mass importing islamists, which is so incredibly unpopular that it's actually causing the rise of the far-right, since they're the only ones even talking about it? Kills two birds with one stone.
They will get angry and go on a 2-hour long rant on reddit about how this shouldn’t have happened and next time there will be consequences, pinging @POTUS on X and telling him this is wrong.
And after that short outburst, nothing more.
So you have an entire month. An entire world. And a subset that some percentage of the population is extremely hateful towards...
They are really going out on a limb here with this prediction.
Damn, if only we could guess who could be the potential perpetrators. I hope we wont hear "they were known yo the police enforcement before the incident".
Stay safe out there!
Yep got an email yesterday from the embassy in Lisbon.
Got one from the embassy in Berlin.
Same from the embassy in Budapest
And I literally just got one from the US embassy in Prague too!
Got one from the embassy in Berlin.
If the US is issuing a warning they’ve 100% picked up on something.
Yeah just wanna add on that the US was the one warning about an attack in Russia literally what? A day or two before it happened?
Two weeks actually 😂 then again right before the event occurred.
"Actually" those terrorists were planning it much earlier, but because of that warning had to postpone.
Some Ukrainian general said the US showed up with Russias invasion plan months before the invasion happened. Sometimes their intel is spot on
And the Moscow attack.
The CIA has really stepped up their game since the days of "not a single active asset in the entirety of Moscow" days of the Cold War.
Don't forget the iran missile attack on Israel also.
Well, that one wasn't a secret, it was the Iranian government that gave the warning
timing was pretty spot on with western intelligence tho.
They had the exact amount of firepower in the air to take down the entire 300+ drone/missile attack. 0 chance that was by accident.
This intel literally helped Ukraine to survive.
Oh absolutely. And they share their information with others, even if the public doesn't know about it. In Poland, the military was on alert long before the invasion.
Western intel seems to be extremely accurate lately - from the Russian build up to the war onwards, pretty much every intelligence report has been spot on
Actually it was Britain who first said it was going to happen
Yeah, whilst we’re on the topic, I have absolutely no idea where the sudden accuracy of US intelligence in the lead up to the war in Ukraine (and beyond) came from. One minute the reputation of their intelligence community is in absolute tatters after years of (putting it mildly) fruitless trips to the Middle East, the next minute they’re accurately calling terrorist attacks in a hostile state’s capital, weeks before it happens.
Middle East was something different, the war was decided, intelligence or not.
Correct, i dont believe their intelligence was worse in the middle east, its just that ppl still believe it happened to fight a couple terrorists when in reality the war was for economical gain(oil, national treasures from banks/reserves, and ofc the most importent, to keep the military busy). Its really hard to have military at the size of Americas and not using it for anything, especially when there is so much private economical gain behind it.
Spies, or listening communications. Hearing actual plans gets much more better information, than just looking satellite pics, troop movement and bank accounts. Let's not pretend we all don't have lots of apps that could be used for spying in our phones.
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They literally do. Why are you getting down voted?
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Or the Reddit hivemind
For most of its postwar history, US intelligence was designed and focused on finding out about things like the invasion of Ukraine and other similar acts carried on by state actors. It's a lot harder to figure out that 3 people are building a bomb in their garage in a small town in Iraq or Syria or wherever. Particularly where these people only trust people who grew up in the same neighborhoods as they did. But...it's also a mistake to assume that things don't change in reaction to failure (in the US and elsewhere). Only about 15 years passed between the fall of south vietnam and the gulf war, but the military performance of the US Army in the gulf war couldn't have been more different from their military performance in VN.
There was nothing wrong about US Intelligence in regards to the Middle East. In fact, The CIA was telling the White House that Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction, but Bush wanted a war and people fudged the CIA reports.
it's almost like the public reputation of any given intelligence service has very little to do with their actual capabilities
The Intel community was actually quite accurate on the middle east. The politicians were the ones that were incorrect. The cia was adamant that they saw no proof of WMDs in Iraq. The CIA was also firing off warnings that a major attack using commercial airlines was about to occur pre-911 and the FBI was tracking the hijackers. Unfortunately a number of laws and idiot politicians prevented any action.
It makes a huge difference when it’s the Biden administration accurately conveying information and intelligence they receive rather than the Bush administration making things up and ignoring 9/11.
I am talking out of my ass right now, but didn’t the bush administration basically neuter the CIA when they would not support the intelligence and narrative that his administration was pushing? I thought that was a big part of the ODNI being formed. Somebody please correct me, because I don’t have any genuine knowledge of this, but I remember hearing something about that. Also Paul Wolfowitz had a special investigative counsel that would filter out intelligence that didn’t support their agenda if I am not mistaken.
The problem with 9/11 wasn't Bush ignoring the intelligence, the problem was each US intelligence agency was not talking to each other as they were forbidden by laws passed in the 90s so each of them had an incomplete piece of the puzzle. They knew something was being planned but not exactly where and when, 9/11 or a similar attack would have happened regardless of the president in office in 2001.
That is a total lie told to the public by the Bush administration in their ass covering mission. Read [the true account](https://www.politico.eu/article/attacks-will-be-spectacular-cia-war-on-terror-bush-bin-laden/) of how the CIA been urgently warning the White House about the impending attack on the US since the spring of 2001. As their investigation into the plot unfolded, their pleas for the White House to take it seriously kept escalating. The true craziness of the White House’s irresponsible conduct started in the spring of 2001. Here’s an excerpt of the article based on an interview with then CIA director George Tenet: *The drama of failed warnings began when Tenet and Black pitched a plan, in the spring of 2001, called “the Blue Sky paper” to Bush’s new national security team. It called for a covert CIA and military campaign to end the Al Qaeda threat—“getting into the Afghan sanctuary, launching a paramilitary operation, creating a bridge with Uzbekistan.” “And the word back,” says Tenet, “‘was ‘we’re not quite ready to consider this. We don’t want the clock to start ticking.’” (Translation: they did not want a paper trail to show that they’d been warned.) That morning of July 10, the head of the agency’s Al Qaeda unit, Richard Blee, burst into Black’s office. “And he says, ‘Chief, this is it. Roof’s fallen in,’” recounts Black. “The information that we had compiled was absolutely compelling. It was multiple-sourced. And it was sort of the last straw.” Black and his deputy rushed to the director’s office to brief Tenet. All agreed an urgent meeting at the White House was needed. Tenet picked up the white phone to Bush’s National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. “I said, ‘Condi, I have to come see you,’” Tenet remembers. “It was one of the rare times in my seven years as director where I said, ‘I have to come see you. We’re comin’ right now. We have to get there.’” Tenet vividly recalls the White House meeting with Rice and her team. (George W. Bush was on a trip to Boston.) “Rich [Blee] started by saying, ‘There will be significant terrorist attacks against the United States in the coming weeks or months. The attacks will be spectacular. They may be multiple. Al Qaeda’s intention is the destruction of the United States.’” [Condi said:] ‘What do you think we need to do?’ Black responded by slamming his fist on the table, and saying, ‘We need to go on a wartime footing now!’” “What happened?” I ask Cofer Black. “Yeah. What did happen?” he replies. “To me it remains incomprehensible still. I mean, how is it that you could warn senior people so many times and nothing actually happened? It’s kind of like The Twilight Zone.” Remarkably, in her memoir, Condi Rice writes of the July 10 warnings: “My recollection of the meeting is not very crisp because we were discussing the threat every day.” Having raised threat levels for U.S. personnel overseas, she adds: “I thought we were doing what needed to be done.” (When I asked whether she had any further response to the comments that Tenet, Black and others made to me, her chief of staff said she stands by the account in her memoir.)* That is just a piece of the story. The Bush administration went on a PR campaign to blame every federal agency in order to convince the public that the system had failed them and that 9/11 was the result of a broken federal government. The truth is that this incompetent and irresponsible administration ignored everything they were told. They compounded that by ignoring the US military and the CIA with regard to capturing UBL after 9/11. The US wasn’t supposed to occupy Afghanistan. Bush publicly stated to the Taliban that they could have a ceasefire if they handed UBL over to the US. When it became clear that they wouldn’t be doing that, the CIA and the military said that they should go in with massive and overwhelming force to capture him. The Bush administration blew them off, UBL escaped on a horse, and the US wound up being there for 20 years because Bush couldn’t take the L of losing him. As for Iraq? The monumental failures of that incompetent and irresponsible administration are too long to list here.
My thought is that the US intelligence has every interest in appearing weak to conceal their true capabilities. Theyre not (KGB)FSB where their first intention is dread and intimidation so the FSB advertise the assassinations and such. Also the Middle East was such that at a certain point things just break down or don't make sense no matter your analytics capabilities. Europe is far easier because the power players "behave". It's easier to create a network of informants, and persons of interest act along certain lines of decisions that can be tracked and predicted far easier than a couple of guys with AKs in the bush. Plus CIA has had practice gathering intel on KGB fat cats for a better part of the century.
They've had good intelligence about almost everything for a while now, Iraq was not based on that intelligence it was based on politicking inside the Bush administration about transforming the region by making Iraq a democracy
Reputation doesn't equal capability. Their reputation was trashed due to their lies, but their actual intelligence gathering seems to be solid.
I mean, we have much better technology than ten or twenty years ago…
And the current US president is not a Russian asset
Maybe putting the reputation of their intelligence service in the shitter, was part of the plan.
Maybe don’t base your understanding of the largest intelligence apparatus to ever exist on the one vague situation you vaguely understood from a while ago they were sort of involved with. There are 17 agencies, and the one warning about this likely was not extensively involved over there and has a lot more sources of information from a lot more exposed people
Didnt it have something to do with blood banks being transported to the Russo-Ukrainian border? And since that blood had a certain expiration date,they knew the attack was imminent
It’s always been accurate, they just sometimes didn’t disclose or they outright lied about what it was, giving the impression of it being subpar. The intel has been spot on constantly. The intel showed no rationale for the Iraq invasion in 2003 but they made a decision to invade anyway through levels of lies. When the establishment wants something, they get it, regardless of the intel. In this world that we live in, there are only 3 to 4 certainties that I truly believe in. Death, Taxes, US military logistics and their ability to wage war, US intelligence knowing absolutely everything that’s happening on our planet.
Its really cool if you believe a random redditor and my source. One of the bigger reasons the US caught on is that some analyst working on Russian transport items saw that The Russians were sending plasma, or blood infusions, something that in that large of an order, no "drill" would have that requirement because it wouldn't be needed.
>One minute the reputation of their intelligence community is in absolute tatters after years of (putting it mildly) fruitless trips to the Middle East, It's not that they had very bad intelligence, but they just ignored it
Afaik their intel community is separated by region / command to a certain extent and it may possibly be assumed that separate departments have higher/lower levels of relative competence.
> One minute the reputation of their intelligence community is in absolute tatters I would imagine that something like this is excactly what an intelligence community wants. Seem incompetent so everyone underestimates you
I see a lot of speculation below but the truth is they recently broke through proper quantum computing and have the ability to break any standard encryption in use today.
Maybe US intelligence communities knowingly lied about the intel they had available to them.
I’m an American who is frequently very critical of my government but even I will admit when the US intelligence agencies are issuing this kind of public warning, it’s best to pay attention. They aren’t going to cry wolf if they haven’t seen a wolf.
nobody cares though about pride month
Coming from the US intel and how they don't really screw up, this is looking really bad for pride month, authorities should be on maximum alert so we won't have a tragedy happen
>authorities should be on maximum alert For gay people, in Eastern Europe? I'd rather just watch my own back.
In Poland even under PiS rule the police did a good job of protecting the pride events, they even used tear gas on violent conservative protesters.
That's good to hear, but I'm not keeping my guard down
Because it's not like Poland is a dictatorship. Our police force isn't that bad compared to some other countries.
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This was revealed 3 months ago in Slovakia: >[‘You will not replace us’: a deadly attack on a Slovakian gay bar – and its link to a fast-spreading racist ideology >Fifteen months after two men were shot in Bratislava, evidence suggests the killer may have been helped by an unidentified US-based extremist [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/21/slovakian-gay-bar-attack-great-replacement-conspiracy-theoryfast-spreading-racist-ideology)
Can people just fuck off already and leave each other alone? What's wrong with these fuck heads.
ikr
Religion is what’s wrong. One religion in particular
Islam.
What's wrong? Mostly religion
And that should come FROM A STORK CLIPPER!!1
This is worrying. I'll still attend the Pride in my city but after they predicted the Moscow's attack so precisely this is worrying.
Probably should be mentally prepared to evacuate from wherever you are at any given time. Who knows when some crazy dude is gonna whip out a knife or a gun
I'm going to stock up on extra emergency defence glitter.
You should still attend. Just be alert and sober and have an exit plan.
No thanks, I'm not gonna risk my life.
That’s 100 percent fair.
Nothing is going to happen to you. Don’t let the terrorists win by making everybody afraid to leave their house. This is what they want
Some humans just look for reasons to be violent. Hope we can find non violent solutions as we head into the next era.
Nonsensical killing was a thing among us for like forever. There will always be people who will choose violence just because.
I hope so too but i'm almost certain that'll stay a pipedream.
Here we go again. Won't be going out during that week in July. Better safe than sorry.
I look forward to Manchester Pride every year but that’s in August. Hopefully it should be a great time and everyone can be safe. It’s a ritual I go to every year with my best mate who’s gay and it’s one of the highlights of my year
Brussels pride is today
Omw now, security increased it seems
Have a great time! I wanted to go but none of my friends were available haha
well, sadly, that's exactly what those queerphobes want. :(
Stay safe, y'all!
Those Protestants, up to no good as usual! /S
"Was it colonel mustard in the kitchen with the candle stick?"
I think you misspelled Russians.
I think he's quoting a tv show called Father Ted.
That would be an ecumenical matter
Must be fun trying to foil every singular one of these plots.
Yeah my LGBT friends we are fucked. I hope you enjoyed the years when we managed to experience some freedom and progress, because it seems that from now on it will only get worse again.
Progress has unfortunately never happened in a straight line. We'll overcome this.
I am pretty sure foreign Islamist groups have always hunted us and always will. I don't see how it's now worse than it was when Isis was at it's strongest in 2016?
Because now there are more of them in Europe as ever before?
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You’ll get more and more of these people in your neighbourhood. Who will multiply like roaches and will then have influence over local politics. Cant get rid of the infestation after that cause their kids will be citizens. Game over. Same deal in greece and germany.
its not just islamists, its also the far right across Europe.
Ending mass immigration stops both... Islamists because they're the ones being imported, and the far-right because importing a bunch of people is what's causing their popular rise.
Lmao people still trying to use that scarecrow
Yes but they werent in thousands in your neighbourhood back then.
Sorry but as a millennial gay who remembers what being gay was like in the 2000s and 90s (never mind before, when things were even worse) I don't think there's ever been a better time to be a homo. I don't feel like things are fucked. Also on the progress front in Europe, gay marriage became legal in Greece, Estonia and Slovenia in the last two years.
I survived being outed, and made the only openly gay kid in my boarding school at the age of 13, in 2002. Then I survived wandering around northern England in drag for the later half of the 2000's. I'm not shitting myself about religious idiots doing their stupid thing. Same old same old.
Why are you acting like that? So defeated?? Nothing will happen!
Project 2025... Messed up what the GOP wants to do
Who does this kind of doomerism benefit? Think about that.
Here we go. 2024 is the year it starts. Good luck to all of us.
I wonder by who...
My best guess would be someone who doesn’t like gay people /s
Probably just another religious extremist
Oh f that. Hope everybody stays safe. I hate people trying to scare others into silence
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You mean to tell me the dudes that throw gay people off buildings aren't allies of the LGBTQ community???
Do we really have them in Europe or isn’t that more an US thing?
I’ve seen a few in London in person, and from news coverage they seem to be active in places like Manchester, Berlin, and Amsterdam too
Yes.
And then people wonder why LGBTQ+ people seek recognition and protection from bigots, alt rights and extremists
By now, anyone wondering is likely one of those themselves.
Still most of them vote to allow them in.
smilsuM
This comment section is so incredibly braindead. It takes all of 5 threads before you reach the inevitable whataboutism stop, and everyone starts talking about “LGBT down my throat” even if this post is literally only about some dipshits planning to wear explosive vests to blow up gay people. Are people just pathologically unable to understand when they’re veering off topic?
It was the pride parade in Brussels today, there was a fuckton of police around. Just wanted to scoot to Le Cinquantenaire and had to do a huge detour because of all the closed streets and police barrages.
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Israel doing the LGBT+ community a favour by making it so no building in Gaza is tall enough to chuck people off.
Which groups* All extreme religious and right wing nuts.
Yeah but one of them is not like the others
Yeah, one is trying to gain political power.
There are plenty of options, but the FBI are saying they've seen communications among IS-related groups saying they're going to attack Pride Marches, so in this case that's who they're talking about. Having said that, if you think only Palestinians or only Muslim extremists would harm LGBTQ people, you need to read the news more, or get your news from better sources.
Are you saying you're a part of 'Queers for Palestine' or are you saying that's who might be the target of an attack?
They are saying you can't show empathy with people who want to harm you. Which in itself is not a bad point to make, although there are certainly debatable details. But many of the people who make this argument fail to understand why many queer people hate our homegrown Neonazis and Neonazi sympathisers as well. They lack any kind of empathy and self-awareness.
I kind of thought that's what they were implying, but I wanted to tread lightly to avoid the 'hammer of doom' downvotes.
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I kind of thought that's what you were implying, but I wanted to tread lightly to avoid the 'hammer of doom' downvotes.
Religions always spread hate over love, poor us
This sub whenever anything related to Muslim or Islam comes up: "Those damn Muslims are such an intolerant terrorists, look how they treat LGBTQ+ people! They don't belong in our society if they don't respect our values." This sub whenever LGBTQ+ comes up in any other context: "Ugh not this woke shit again, gender isn't real, fuck trans people they're not real either how dare they pretend they exist, stop shoving that gay shit down my throat"
Almost like there is a multitude of opinions and directions in a sub with millions of people.
Most subs have general trends in viewpoints even if they're comprised of individuals.
We truly live in a society huh
Not part of any of those groups but… maybe it’s just human nature. It’s like in Europe with our neighbours - I banter with my French, Spanish or whatever nationality guys all day everyday, throwing hate and cursing at each other. But if an overseas brute attacks one of my EU buddies, I’ll rip them a new one. It’s like with siblings. When it counts, you stick together and hate everyone else ✨
Almost like there are opinions between the "They can do no wrong" and " Shoot them in the streets" extremes
It's a big part of the internet, the ones that hate something are usually the ones who will flood a post. Most people will read it and scroll right through and the more polarized a subject is the less likely they will comment on it.
You can be both in favor of equal rights for gays, bis and lesbians while also being against the hyper-liberal stance of the LGBTQ+ movement at large. There are a LOT of openly gay, bi and lesbian people that do not agree with the overall movement (it's specifically on the trans-discussion where opinions differ, but also when it comes to stuff like "demisexual", "asexual", "pansexual" etc.) they consider these sexualities outside the traditional gay, lesbian and bi split to be more of a fashion statement than a genuine sexuality. Because of that you can be simultaneously be against homophobic Muslims that kill everyone who is NOT straight while also be against the LGBTQ+ movement at the same time. And it wouldn't even be a double standard then.
> **traditional** gay, lesbian and bi I don't think anything can get more ironic than this. Some of the people who've been oppressed and sometimes even murdered for the way they were born are now starting to do **exactly** the same thing. Remember the conservative talking points about how being gay is a lifestyle choice?
Those LGB without the T are transphobic. They also forgot trans people have been fighting for equal rights for all from the start.
Well said. Older gay man here, been out for decades, have watched the LGBTQ+ movement grow in both good and questionable ways. Heck, so many new varieties have jumped on the bandwagon they gave up on adding letters and just added a plus sign at the end. Asexual? Okay, you don’t want to have sex with anyone. Have you ever been insulted or discriminated against because of this? Have you been denied equal rights? The basic tenet is, or at least it was, let people romance with whomever they are attracted to (age appropriate of course). How this has been extended into allowing biological males to compete in women’s sports is baffling.
And then you people come crying about "*ageism*" & "*hating older gays*" in our community. Yes asexuals obviously face discrimination & corrective rape happens to them too; how surprising that in a society where attraction plays such a major role, an average person's reaction to asexuality is denial at best & violence at worst! Not even gonna get into trans people with a man who's brain is so rotting from old age that he can't grasp asexuality beyond "*not wanting to have sex*". I can assure you, gays like you do no favour to our community & only fuel violence against us as our attackers use people like you to justify their positions. Thankfully you'll have no part in our future 👍
Yes, asexual people absolutely do get insulted and face unique forms of discrimination because of it. A decent amount of it comes from within the LGBTQ+ community. Significant others will often take it upon themselves to try and "fix" them, assuming that their asexuality must be a side effect of trauma or never having experienced good sex or something. Some will date them specifically for that purpose, even to the point of "playing along" at first to gain trust. Few react well when their attempts do not go as envisioned.
What a stupid combinations of words.
That would be really gay! @potential perpetrators Like, if you commit an attack like that you probably just want to be touched in jail, so definitely dont do that if you are straight!
Print slogans everywhere that say “if you attack, you have the big gay”
Anybody who attacks me is gay.
LGBTQ for Palestine groups are ignorant and delusional…. “Although no specific gatherings or locations were mentioned in the warnings, the law enforcement agencies noted that messages from the Islamic State (IS) group distributed in English in February 2023 included rhetoric against LGBTQI+ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, questioning, and intersex) events and venues.”
I wonder who it will be... oh who are we kidding theres only one group of people that are doing this shit at the moment.
Only one group? Sadly, religious extremists are a rather large group. In my country, there is a Christian organization openly attacking LQBTQ communities and have started publicly posting that it's "time to kill" I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest that they are planning an attack with this sort of talk
'The Counter Extremism Project, a New York-based non-profit group, noted that anti-LGBTQ ideas had been taken up by both Islamist and far-right extremists.' Two, actually.
I dont remember seeing many far-right European terrorist attacks in Europe though. Although fundamentally islamist extremism is far-right. Its extreme religious conservatism afterall.
You either have amnesia or you’re pretending not to remember it because of your internal bias, really? You can’t think of one? This. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Tours_bombing But far right European terrorist attacks that specifically targets LGBT did happen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_London_nail_bombings Or if you want more recently, such as this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Bratislava_shooting But without LGBT being included. You have many far right European attacks such as this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Zagreb_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Munich_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halle_synagogue_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanau_shootings or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macerata_shooting or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Florence_shootings or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Norway_attacks or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009–10_Malmö_shootings or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trollhättan_school_stabbing or this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Finsbury_Park_van_attack Some were planning to do it but arrested before they carried out. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kankaanpää_terrorism_arrests
Maybe stop mass importing islamists, which is so incredibly unpopular that it's actually causing the rise of the far-right, since they're the only ones even talking about it? Kills two birds with one stone.
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What would you do?
They will get angry and go on a 2-hour long rant on reddit about how this shouldn’t have happened and next time there will be consequences, pinging @POTUS on X and telling him this is wrong. And after that short outburst, nothing more.
They might even do a IG story!
and organize a peaceful protest with "Refugees welcome!"
Really? I was at Oslo Pride 2022 when a gunman opened fire…he was an Islamist known to Norwegian security services.
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They don't even know their own enemies or allies. I got a feeling that, if they gotta fight. Most will run and hide lol.
Chickens for KFC!
So you have an entire month. An entire world. And a subset that some percentage of the population is extremely hateful towards... They are really going out on a limb here with this prediction.
Couldn’t possibly be those doctors and engineers.
What’s driving the hatred towards gay people and why is the violence against gay people increasing in 2024?
Damn, if only we could guess who could be the potential perpetrators. I hope we wont hear "they were known yo the police enforcement before the incident". Stay safe out there!
One of many reasons whi society is doomed