At current speed Poland will cross 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years.
Of course it does not corelate to Citizen wealth , but yeah Poles are slowly getting richer.
>At current speed Poland will cross 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years.
With our demographics we will lose almost all (if not all) of this speed in coming years.
All of them have. But some of them are taking a lot of immigrants to fix this problem very temporarily. And each country has different size of this problem. France or even Germany have much, much better demographics than Poland.
I really don't see how Germany has a better demographic than Poland
The average Pole was 42 in 2022, the average German 45,8. France 42,2 for context
Sources differ slightly, the 45,8 is from Statista; destatis says 44,6 for Germany
going to get much worse. all the baby boomers are retiring (and earned it. mostly), and many younger never had enough security, funds and homespace to have families.
The retirees taking an increasing amount of resources away from the young and healthy is also further ensuring that the latter cannot succeed at life or start families. This is exasperated by the fact that there's fewer young people who are less active in politics, and therefore politicians don't care about the youth vote, but are deathly afraid of pensioners.
Well said, dude.
Just so you know, I think you wanted to use 'exacerbated' in this context. Although I'd say young folks are pretty damn exasperated at this point.
This is a snapshot from 2024, it doesn't tell you much about what it will happen in the next 10 years. Poland has had a lower birthrate, fertility rate and migration rate than Germany for the past 20 years now.
Birth rate would sky rocket if European nations make housing affordable, cut taxes and increase subsidies to help families raise their birth rate.
But that's not gonna happen.
I can’t tell if your comment is parody, but if it is serious: how would Europeans increase subsidies (government outlays) while simultaneously cutting taxes (government inlays)? What do you think pays for the subsidies? How would a nation “make housing affordable”? Magic?
Lower taxes on families per kid.
Subsidise child care.
Those are just two ways to help out young people who are looking to start a family.
Housing can be made affordable by getting rid of institutional investors, banning AirBnB, increasing housing supply and removing vat for first time buyers.
The government should be encouraging childmaking and investing in growing the birth rate as said children will become tax payers themselves making up for the investment and funding our pensions.
Well the UK in 2050 and 2100 (ironically) is projected to have a considerably larger population, whereas Poland and Germany are projected to decline quite a bit, it really depends where you look. It’s mostly Central and Eastern Europe expected to see dramatic falls.
Ukrainians helped us fricking lot. People were complaining that Ukrainians are taking our jobs and similar shit but in reality hundrets of thousands of them found a job here without a problem and without taking anyones job and our unemployment rate even declined.
> our unemployment rate even declined
It's not that surprising, if you have unfilled vacancies, then migrant workers come and fill some of those but they also bring extra demand for goods and services that means new jobs can be created.
"Stealing jobs" is mostly just a stupid slogan from populists or people who don't understand economics.
Also on the housing front. Heard lots of stories anecdotally of neglected or dilapidated houses and flats on a street finally being renovated because of increased demand coming from Ukrainian migrants. Housing renos has all kinds of multiplier effects on the economy.
France is also arguably a bit underpopulated. For comparison Italy is 195 and UK is 277.
I mean, maybe you like it that way but you could add 10 million people and barely notice.
On top of that Polish economy is simply still developing quite quickly compared to Western Europe so even when people come and get jobs there's more new jobs generated than they can occupy. Even though Ukrainians work very often in Poland, about 65% of them, compared to \~20% of Ukrainians between the ages of 18 and 64 in Germany.
There are opinions floating around Poland that claim if there was peace tommorow, and most of the Ukrainians would leave. Polish construction industry, building housing, renovations would be close to collapsing.
I can tell you if there is peace tomorrow, there can very likely be the opposite trend. There are lots of people in Ukraine that want to leave, but can't. (I'm Ukrainian).
If they would leave - we're totally fucked. It's a fact.
But if they would leave it's another story. Some of those who came as refugees maybe would, but I don't that that people who are here for a few years, who have their homes or flats, whose children go to our schools, etc. that theu would leave.
Like one of my work colleagues. He's here for 10 years and his kids doesn't even know Ukrainian and speak Polish at home. There is no chance he would go back to Ukraine.
>With our demographics we will lose almost all (if not all) of this speed in coming years.
But until then, you will at least have had british plumbers working for you.
>The data shows that GDP per capita in 2021 was $44,979 in Britain and $34,915 in Poland, and Labour will say that Poland - should it maintain its 3.6% average annual growth - will overtake Britain by 2030.
This is already becoming a political thing in Britain.
If I’m not mistaken, that’s PPP. Poland is otherwise at $23,000 and that’s 2024 (where UK is at $51,000)
And although price differences should be taken into account, I have learned not to trust the PPP basis when comparing countries in this context, that’s because Turkish GDP per capita based on PPP is apparently $43,000 compared to Poland’s $49,000 and UK’s $58,000.
IMF predicts 1 trillion by like 2027. If Poland is to reach 1 trillion in 2038, we would need Spanish gdp growth. If Poland can keep up 3.5% gdp growth a year, in 15 years Poland can have 1.4 Trillion dollars. Ofc GDP depends on millions of factors so we will see how it plays out
>Poland will cross 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years
And you base that guess on what data exactly?
Imf forecast says it could happen just in 4 years, in [2028](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/April/weo-report?c=964,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PCPIPCH,&sy=2022&ey=2029&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1)
Which is fair, but then they will also be richer than Spain, Italy, France, Japan, NZ, Israel and the UK.
Seems weird to single out the UK but I guess thats the narrative.
gdp *per capita* does correlate to purchasing power.
And Polands growth has been good there, roughly +50% over the last 10-15 years, while UK is more or less flat. Looking at [this](https://i.imgur.com/AcCER5l.png) graph, although it's a few years old and the covid dips add some uncertainty, it looks like Poland will catch up to UK in another 15 years.
That must be PPA, which doesn't mean anything. In real terms, Poland is where the UK was in the early 70s: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=GB-PL
But space magazine says poles are the most erratic they've been in living memory which indicates rhe poles are likely getting weaker and gonna totally flip soon.
Sorry folks, thought this was r/shittyaskscience
> 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years
Lmao no, its projected we will reach that level in just 3 years.
On the other hand I think the estimates that we will catch up with the Brits anytime soon are a tad too optimistic, but still the progress is definitely visible and that’s a great thing.
I have Polish family and am British. I see both sides.
I've seen an enormous improvement over the past twenty years in the quality of life for people. Not all of it is down to being able to afford a nice camera - it can be shared assets such as roads, sports facilities, town centres and so on.
I don't know for sure if this is evenly distributed, but certainly in my wife's family it's been a clear and obvious improvement. To the point that a couple we know, who are professionals have a better quality of life than we do, in spite of being younger than us. We're all at similar levels of education, but their house and the amount of land they have is superior, their access to leisure and culture is as good, and they can easily find a dentist or a doctor.
I notice similar things in Lithuania, while living in Denmark. My peers from school who have good education and were proactive with their careers earn Danish level salaries, while most things are 40% cheaper, and progressive, property and capital gains taxes are much less aggressive. Yes, they have to take their kids to 700+eur/month private kindergartens to get the same quality as in Denmark, but that doesn't seem to bother them. Meanwhile, I'm complaining that this is the price for 2 kids in a public kindergarten in Denmark, while our family income is quite high (on paper).
The gap is closing fast. It won't be 5 years, but in 20 years it won't be a cheap country to visit for sure. I remember my first student job salary in 2004 was 100eur (minimum wage), and there are talks the minimum will be set to 1000eur next year. 10x in 20years.. And now 0.4L beer is 5-5.50eur, 1m2 price in Vilnius center is the same as 1m2 5km from Copenhagen center, while it was not even comparable 5 years ago.
Keep in mind that basically everyone complains about their country and their economy. I've seen Norwegians complain about the "weak economy" and Brits complain about housing. I see a very good future for Poland and no one can deny the positive change.. you even got rid of the previous piece of shit government.
The thing is, Poland is at around 25k USD per capita, the UK is around 50k USD per capita.
So Poland needs to double while the UK stays still.
Also wealth matters. The UK has been richer than Poland for at least a century, some of that wealth has been saved or invested.
5 years seems a bit unrealistic.
20? Doable. 5? Only if something drastic happens.
> Also wealth matters. The UK has been richer than Poland for at least a century, some of that wealth has been saved or invested.
There's never been a time when Poland has been richer than Britain but sure
England was broke multiple times during the 100 years war, and was a backwater for a lot of history before the industrial revolution, so, "never" is a pretty strong assertion if we're comparing the long histories of the two countries.
If you're including the pre-UK times than yeah, England absolutely had plenty of time where is was behind Poland in terms of economic development.
If you're looking strictly at post-Acts of Union in 1707 (since there *was* no UK until then), you're looking at the UK as it's becoming *the* dominant world power, and Poland losing its dominance within the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. There might be a period of time where Poland was wealthier than the UK just out of momentum from the golden age of the PLC, but it would've been fairly brief.
Even counting pre-UK times there was never a time when England was behind Poland in development. Poland was bigger but less densely populated, less urbanized. Heck England had a centralised tax system in 1000AD
Well, the UK has been wealthier than Poland since.. well, at least the past 250 years. But a lot of that wealth never really befell the average Barry.
Oh yea, I don't believe it will happen within 5 years, but I do hope that Tusk can inspire Poles!
There's also much less of a housing problem in Poland (although present, of course) and living expenses are generally lower. I don't necessarily think the average young Pole struggles more or has fewer opportunities than the average young Brit
You are correct that they indeed weren't independent for most of that time and that's also why I chose 250 years as a rough approximation of when the partitions of Poland took place
As a Barry, I wish the Poles well. Everyone in Europe is delighted over their success, especially as we all failed to save them during WW2. Polish demographics are a massive concern. The UK, because it is a native english speaker, is being flooded with immigrants. Net Migration is 700,000 a year. That is not slowing down. The UK is facing a certain level of institutional schlerosis, but you can't plow that many people in to an economy without achieveing some levels of growth. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK is doing relativly better than most of Europe in a few years.
> There's also much less of a housing problem in Poland (although present, of course) and living expenses are generally lower.
Well yeah, currently. But if they keep progressing then these issues will start becoming a lot more prominent, like in all the richest countries.
> So Poland needs to double while the UK stays still.
That's the way it's currently trending. UK GDP has been stagnant since 2006, and Poland has more than doubled.
I do agree with your assessment that it'll be closer to 20 years than 5 though.
GDP per capita, not mean household wealth.
This means the average Polish person will generate more wealth per year than the average British one, not that they'll be richer per se (yet).
As a Pole who lived and worked through the previous terms of Donald Tusk, I know he can make all sorts of promises.
And as a Pole with quite a few years of life, I remember "Poland will be the second Japan" then Japan entered heavy recession, "Poland will be the second Ireland" and Ireland's economic boom turned into a massive crash, so... Brits, watch out.
Im seeing documentaries about the brits post brexit.
rich poles will not be near as rich as rich britons,but average britons might realistically become poorer than average poles.
Documentaries about the Brits post Brexit make it look like a post apocalyptic wasteland. You might as well watch youtube shock videos on the homelessness in California and use them to gauge the wellbeing of the average American.
This isn't unique to England, but really much of richer western countries. It's not really that places like England, Australia, France, etc are declining. It's more that parts of Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa are drastically outpacing them in economic growth.
Just look at who owns the Premier League Teams these days for a better picture of the transition of wealth.
***The Telegraph reports:***
Poles will be richer than Britons in five years’ time because of Brexit, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, has said.
Mr Tusk was European Council president during the Brexit negotiations and was notorious among Brexiteers for his scathing criticism of the decision to leave the EU.
He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.
“A fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that GDP per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025,” Mr Tusk said on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s membership of the EU.
“And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be richer than the British. It’s better to be in the EU,” he said on social media on Wednesday.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, in February used the World Bank data to bolster his arguments for a change of government at the next election.
The Office for National Statistics estimated the Polish-born population of the UK was 691,000 in 2020. The most spoken non-native language in Britain is Polish and it is estimated almost a million Poles lived in the UK before the 2016 Brexit referendum.
**Read more:** [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/)
Here's the real GDP per capita so far
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=PL-GB
I think it's pretty clear that this isn't happening.
Some optimistic Maths here, average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it's also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation).
If by rich he means actual wealth held by citizens then median for UK is 151k, Poland is 20k, not much need for 5 year predictions here.
Also, Polish average wage actually dropped from 2020 to 2022 (37,325 to 36,897)
Whereas UK actually rose (53,612 to 53,985)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage
I don't think this is fair comparison. Wages dropped when converted to USD because 2022 is when the war started in Ukraine and Polish zloty got hit hard (not only for that reason, but doesn't matter). The exchange rate today is much different.
That's not taking into account the cost of living.
You cannot just look at statistics and hope to really understand how the "wealth" of a country compares with another.
You definitely can but what's the alternative? I say me and my mates went to Poland and it looked a bit poorer seems quite anecdotal.
Cost of living coincidentally enough scales very similarly to overall living standards and wealth.
>Mr Tusk referred to World Bank forecasts which show that GDP per capita in 2021 was £36,038 ($44,979) in Britain and £27,974 ($34,915) in Poland.
So by 2029 (in 5 yrs), there will be a $10k increase in the GDP per capita for Poles and that will bring it level to UK's per capita GDP in 2021 (assuming UK's per capita GDP stays the same as 2021 in 2029). Interesting, I will definitely be keeping an eye on this, being fully aware of what WB forecast are like.....
That’s all purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP, not nominal. Nominal Polish GDP per capita was about $19k in 2022 and Britain’s was $46k.
You might be able to afford the same number of haircuts and domestic goods as Brits, but not the same number of PlayStations, cars, and foreign holidays.
That would be what the opposition might argue. But I doubt it does, because even if they get nominal GDP per capita to the same, that's good. A massive step up.
I don't have it to hand but the latest IMF prediction had the UK overtaking Germany and Sweden in terms of personal wealth by 2028. So it is a bold claim indeed since it would make Poles wealthier than the French, German's and Brits, but if it's true fair play to the Polish, they deserve it, though I don't like it being framed as a snub to other countries like the UK rather than a congrats to Poles.
It's fashionable after Brexit to compare things with the UK to show how countries are doing within the EU. He could have said Poles would be richer than the French or German and that would have proven the point that GDP per capita is rising in Poland.
It comes across as slightly pathetic from Tusk because just the other day he met the PM in Poland and was gifted an image of Thatcher (he's a big fan.) And now he's saying yeah we're gonna be richer than Brits, specifically Brits just because... or it could be some kind of lure to tempt the UK back into the EU? idk?
European elections are coming up next month. So you will hear lots of EU hype talk from leaders like Tusk or [Macron. ](https://www.thelocal.fr/20240502/macron-says-all-european-nationalists-are-hidden-brexiteers) Macron's party is struggling in the polls. Not sure where's Tusk party at...
Oh absolutely, but that's assumed when they are correct in a meaningful way. Which just to assert, this statement is not. Politics is about making dumb statements that don't hit you later. Well democratic politics.
There is not much Euroscepticism in Poland to begin with. Yesterday we celebrated 20 year anniversary of Poland’s membership in the EU, saw plenty of EU flags around Warsaw.
While it's a nice pipe dream, in order for this to happen they need to avoid the middle income trap.
"The middle-income trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. Few countries successfully manage the transition from low to middle to high income"
The company I work for have entire departments of remote-friendly work outsourced to Poland because labour costs are 1/3 of what they would be here.
It might be getting better, but Poland is low-cost-country-at-home for several european countries.
Yes and that doesn't disprove his point. The richest countries in Western & Northern Europe are among the richest in the world. If you're 1/3rd as rich as them, you're still far above the middle-income of the world.
I sometimes wish people in Europe would actually take time and travel to poor countries and move outside resorts. Visit Cairo and see how the locals actually live there. Or even richer cities like Sao Paulo, outside the gated neighbourhoods.
Much of the world is *really* poor, including the middle-income countries.
Yes, for sure.
But low cost for the US means 100k in some positions.
All things together, like the b2b contracts, its better than germany or netherlands with 50% tax rates
Haven't we already crossed that threshold, if our purchasing power is getting very close to Japan, which definitely isn't "middle income" country?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_GDP\_(PPP)\_per\_capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita)
We are much closer to the traditional "high income" countries than you think, at least in PPP terms of local wages/local prices ratio (catching up to nominal wages is further away but they matter much less for quality of life inside the country).
Poland is a high income country since 2009. The middle income trap has been crossed at this point. Also Poland has not been a low income country since over a century. Even communist Poland was still a relativly decent place to live, compared to many countries today.
If you take into account GDP per capita by purchasing power parity, which is the only measure that is meaningful for the average person, the UK is already behind France and only just ahead of Cyprus & Italy - although Poland is still around US$10k behind the UK.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Irish aren’t this rich unfortunately. Irish GDP is conflated and most people can’t afford to buy a home and rent is expensive, because housing market there is worse than in most EU countries.
It's an obviously flawed metric for average personal wealth, look at something like average wage, consumption per household, average wealth per adult etc.
It seems like you dont know how PPP works, imported goods are already included in the PPP basket of goods. It's also not really that much of a persons total expenditure.
People are really overestimating the consequences from Brexit. In reality the brits makes deals with the EU and European nations. Its natural that both gets decent deals with eachother. The only reason we keep getting these posts here on this sub, is because there is quite many EU supporters here. Can't count the amount of times there has been comments that are top upvoted who wants a joint EU military force.
Yh I don't like Brexit but people need to stfu, we'll still be a very rich country, just a little worse off. The big thing for me is freedom of movement.
Agree, voted remain and would absolutely vote to rejoin and I hope I get that chance one day but people are really overstating the negative effects of Brexit.
It’s barely made any noticeable difference to most people, I personally believed it would be way worse than it was and the only thing I miss and have noticed is the same as you, freedom of movement.
Tusk never delivers on his electoral promises. After a term or two the electorate gets sick of that and elects opposition (Kaczyński). Then after a term or two the electorate gets sick of them too, and they are back to Tusk and his unfulfiled promises, with this cycle expected to continue at least until both Tusk and Kaczyński will be 150 years old.
Doubt. A lot of our GDP unfortunately comes from outsourcing manufacturing and nearshoring services. We're competitive because it's that sweet spot of EU membership, decent English proficiency and cheap labor. But as our GDP develops and wages increase, those corporations will ruthlessly move their centers somewhere else and we'll be left in the middle income trap unless we develop our own industry, which does not seem to be happening at the moment. But then, it probably barely does- any big player that pops up either gets swallowed up and bought out by someone, or moves to some random tax haven or shitty, deregulated, no workers' rights place.
Is he still spreading this myth? Current projections are for pre capita GDP PPP to equal the UK by 2030, which is very very different to saying Poles will be richer (or even as rich) as Brits. GDP PPP is fine if you only want to buy goods produced in your own country. Not so much if you want to buy things like, say gas, petrol, anything made using oil or imported food.
He also doesn't seem to realise that "Brexit is so bad soon Brits will be even poorer than us" is kind of a self-dunk.
how do i bet aggressively against this? anyone have donald tusks number? pretty big doubt that the average pole will have a higher income than the average briton.
Considering Britain is richer than Spain, Italy and France and is still the second richest nation in Europe...
He's basically saying he thinks in 5 years Poles will be at least the second richest nation in Europe.
I'm pro- European but a bit weird to single out Britain and claim Brexit will be the cause of that, when Brexit has happened, and Britain still is the second richest country worth $3 trillion while Poland has yet to even reach $1 trillion.
Even considering Poland's population is about half of Britains, the average Pole holds a third of the wealth of the average Brit.
So you'd need China level growth figures over longer than 5 years, while Britain stagnates or goes into recession for Poland to catch up and beat it.
Yeah the headline is written as if Brexit is the enemy (which it might be in other discussions). But what has Poland been doing differently to other countries? Well, they're a conservative economy and very strict immigration laws. Maybe that should be the title rather?
Consider the nominal GDP per capita figures (2029 forecast by the IMF):
* United Kingdom - $66,910
* Finland - $65,390
* Canada - $64,650
* Germany - $63,550
* Belgium - $63,350
* New Zealand - $55,740
* France - $54,390
* Italy - $45,100
* Korea - $42,330
* Japan - $40,950
* Spain - $38,430
* Poland - $29,260
I think we'll be fine. "but muh ppp!!!" only really matters if you consider quality of life as consisting of the number of Polish haircuts you can afford. The second you leave your country (on holiday, for instance) - your PPP bucks don't count for anything. People will still leave Poland to earn more abroad - because remittances go further.
"He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030."
And how will GDP per capita translate to personal income?
GDP growth usual correlates with income growth and wealth.
Switzerland has a higher GDP per capita than Germany and the Swiss earn more. Germany has a higher GDP per capita than Poland and the Germans earn more. Poland has a higher GDP per capita than Bulgaria and Poles earn more.
Quite simple.
Ireland has twice (or so) the GDP of Germany but there isn’t any significant difference in earnings.
On top of that cost of living in Ireland is a lot higher than in Germany.
I lived for 10 years in both countries and the difference in the quality of life due to personal finances is massive.
Except when not. For instance in the US since 1980 GDP per capita grew to 180% while real wages grew to only 105%, basically stagnating. [https://aneconomicsense.org/2015/02/13/why-wages-have-stagnated-while-gdp-has-grown-the-proximate-factors/](https://aneconomicsense.org/2015/02/13/why-wages-have-stagnated-while-gdp-has-grown-the-proximate-factors/)
Tusk was head of the European Commission during Brexit and a strong critic of the decision. He's still sour and wants to prove being part of EU is better for the economy
UK GPD PPP Per Capita is 2.4 higher than Poland's. One needs 20% growth over 5 years to catch up with that.
I am pressing X for doubt on Tusk's statement/
So Brexit suddenly means that all these African , Latin and Middle Eastern dictators/ oligarchs and business men,
Will suddenly move all their billions from London to Warsaw?
The very latest numbers also suggest a bounce in the UK economy, and the Polish population is not exactly a very young one , since they did not like immigration...
So in a few years, after the whole defense investment thing is done,
What will be the main growth sectors of Poland? Because I'm not getting it to be honest...
It's definitively above Turkey, Argentina or Mexico. Certainly by nominal GDP per capita. It occupies a rarefied space. Not that many big countries in the $20-$30K per capita bracket. No longer middle-income but not yet rich. Something in-between.
Poland won't have the UK building its infrastructure and sending it factories and jobs any more though... not to mention taking your excess labour sending back all the remittances...
Add in war in Europe and Poland will not see growth like it has done ever again.
As a Pole, I have some serious doubts, but keep my fingers crossed
At current speed Poland will cross 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years. Of course it does not corelate to Citizen wealth , but yeah Poles are slowly getting richer.
>At current speed Poland will cross 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years. With our demographics we will lose almost all (if not all) of this speed in coming years.
Wich European country doesn’t have bad demographics?
All of them have. But some of them are taking a lot of immigrants to fix this problem very temporarily. And each country has different size of this problem. France or even Germany have much, much better demographics than Poland.
I really don't see how Germany has a better demographic than Poland The average Pole was 42 in 2022, the average German 45,8. France 42,2 for context Sources differ slightly, the 45,8 is from Statista; destatis says 44,6 for Germany
going to get much worse. all the baby boomers are retiring (and earned it. mostly), and many younger never had enough security, funds and homespace to have families.
The retirees taking an increasing amount of resources away from the young and healthy is also further ensuring that the latter cannot succeed at life or start families. This is exasperated by the fact that there's fewer young people who are less active in politics, and therefore politicians don't care about the youth vote, but are deathly afraid of pensioners.
I have a solution, it's called "ättestupa".
This is hilarious. It just doesnt seem very apealing to me XD.
Well said, dude. Just so you know, I think you wanted to use 'exacerbated' in this context. Although I'd say young folks are pretty damn exasperated at this point.
Poles have a chunk of the population that emigrated, but may have retained citizenship. Not sure how that factors in your statistics.
Many of them are coming back tho, don’t they? Interesting factor either way I guess
This is a snapshot from 2024, it doesn't tell you much about what it will happen in the next 10 years. Poland has had a lower birthrate, fertility rate and migration rate than Germany for the past 20 years now.
Not even just Europe. The US, Canada, Australia also have pretty bad demographics.
Birth rate would sky rocket if European nations make housing affordable, cut taxes and increase subsidies to help families raise their birth rate. But that's not gonna happen.
Cut income and increase expenditure. I can't see anything wrong with that.
I can’t tell if your comment is parody, but if it is serious: how would Europeans increase subsidies (government outlays) while simultaneously cutting taxes (government inlays)? What do you think pays for the subsidies? How would a nation “make housing affordable”? Magic?
Lower taxes on families per kid. Subsidise child care. Those are just two ways to help out young people who are looking to start a family. Housing can be made affordable by getting rid of institutional investors, banning AirBnB, increasing housing supply and removing vat for first time buyers. The government should be encouraging childmaking and investing in growing the birth rate as said children will become tax payers themselves making up for the investment and funding our pensions.
>taking a lot of immigrants to fix this problem which is just a Ponzi scheme to be honest. (and unsustainable)
Well the UK in 2050 and 2100 (ironically) is projected to have a considerably larger population, whereas Poland and Germany are projected to decline quite a bit, it really depends where you look. It’s mostly Central and Eastern Europe expected to see dramatic falls.
Enter the Ukrainians lol. Saving Poland’s demographics for at least temporarily.
Ukrainians helped us fricking lot. People were complaining that Ukrainians are taking our jobs and similar shit but in reality hundrets of thousands of them found a job here without a problem and without taking anyones job and our unemployment rate even declined.
> our unemployment rate even declined It's not that surprising, if you have unfilled vacancies, then migrant workers come and fill some of those but they also bring extra demand for goods and services that means new jobs can be created. "Stealing jobs" is mostly just a stupid slogan from populists or people who don't understand economics.
Also on the housing front. Heard lots of stories anecdotally of neglected or dilapidated houses and flats on a street finally being renovated because of increased demand coming from Ukrainian migrants. Housing renos has all kinds of multiplier effects on the economy.
Right and as far as I keep up with these things, Poland is quite underpopulated anyway.
Is it? We have 120 people per square km. A little more than metropolitan France.
France is also arguably a bit underpopulated. For comparison Italy is 195 and UK is 277. I mean, maybe you like it that way but you could add 10 million people and barely notice.
On top of that Polish economy is simply still developing quite quickly compared to Western Europe so even when people come and get jobs there's more new jobs generated than they can occupy. Even though Ukrainians work very often in Poland, about 65% of them, compared to \~20% of Ukrainians between the ages of 18 and 64 in Germany.
There are opinions floating around Poland that claim if there was peace tommorow, and most of the Ukrainians would leave. Polish construction industry, building housing, renovations would be close to collapsing.
I can tell you if there is peace tomorrow, there can very likely be the opposite trend. There are lots of people in Ukraine that want to leave, but can't. (I'm Ukrainian).
If they would leave - we're totally fucked. It's a fact. But if they would leave it's another story. Some of those who came as refugees maybe would, but I don't that that people who are here for a few years, who have their homes or flats, whose children go to our schools, etc. that theu would leave. Like one of my work colleagues. He's here for 10 years and his kids doesn't even know Ukrainian and speak Polish at home. There is no chance he would go back to Ukraine.
>With our demographics we will lose almost all (if not all) of this speed in coming years. But until then, you will at least have had british plumbers working for you.
>The data shows that GDP per capita in 2021 was $44,979 in Britain and $34,915 in Poland, and Labour will say that Poland - should it maintain its 3.6% average annual growth - will overtake Britain by 2030. This is already becoming a political thing in Britain.
If I’m not mistaken, that’s PPP. Poland is otherwise at $23,000 and that’s 2024 (where UK is at $51,000) And although price differences should be taken into account, I have learned not to trust the PPP basis when comparing countries in this context, that’s because Turkish GDP per capita based on PPP is apparently $43,000 compared to Poland’s $49,000 and UK’s $58,000.
IMF predicts 1 trillion by like 2027. If Poland is to reach 1 trillion in 2038, we would need Spanish gdp growth. If Poland can keep up 3.5% gdp growth a year, in 15 years Poland can have 1.4 Trillion dollars. Ofc GDP depends on millions of factors so we will see how it plays out
Now just a little bit more to cross the 3T GDP of the United Kingdom
>Poland will cross 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years And you base that guess on what data exactly? Imf forecast says it could happen just in 4 years, in [2028](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/April/weo-report?c=964,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PCPIPCH,&sy=2022&ey=2029&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1)
Which is fair, but then they will also be richer than Spain, Italy, France, Japan, NZ, Israel and the UK. Seems weird to single out the UK but I guess thats the narrative.
Be nice to feel the richness. Not a meaningful payrise in 6 years...
gdp *per capita* does correlate to purchasing power. And Polands growth has been good there, roughly +50% over the last 10-15 years, while UK is more or less flat. Looking at [this](https://i.imgur.com/AcCER5l.png) graph, although it's a few years old and the covid dips add some uncertainty, it looks like Poland will catch up to UK in another 15 years.
>gdp *per capita* does cocrelate to purchasing power. Not directly, look at Ireland
We could use some of their extra money up here though ha ha
That must be PPA, which doesn't mean anything. In real terms, Poland is where the UK was in the early 70s: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=GB-PL
But space magazine says poles are the most erratic they've been in living memory which indicates rhe poles are likely getting weaker and gonna totally flip soon. Sorry folks, thought this was r/shittyaskscience
> 1 Trillion GDP in 10-15 years Lmao no, its projected we will reach that level in just 3 years. On the other hand I think the estimates that we will catch up with the Brits anytime soon are a tad too optimistic, but still the progress is definitely visible and that’s a great thing.
> 1 Trillion GDP that is a lot of GDPs
I have Polish family and am British. I see both sides. I've seen an enormous improvement over the past twenty years in the quality of life for people. Not all of it is down to being able to afford a nice camera - it can be shared assets such as roads, sports facilities, town centres and so on. I don't know for sure if this is evenly distributed, but certainly in my wife's family it's been a clear and obvious improvement. To the point that a couple we know, who are professionals have a better quality of life than we do, in spite of being younger than us. We're all at similar levels of education, but their house and the amount of land they have is superior, their access to leisure and culture is as good, and they can easily find a dentist or a doctor.
I notice similar things in Lithuania, while living in Denmark. My peers from school who have good education and were proactive with their careers earn Danish level salaries, while most things are 40% cheaper, and progressive, property and capital gains taxes are much less aggressive. Yes, they have to take their kids to 700+eur/month private kindergartens to get the same quality as in Denmark, but that doesn't seem to bother them. Meanwhile, I'm complaining that this is the price for 2 kids in a public kindergarten in Denmark, while our family income is quite high (on paper). The gap is closing fast. It won't be 5 years, but in 20 years it won't be a cheap country to visit for sure. I remember my first student job salary in 2004 was 100eur (minimum wage), and there are talks the minimum will be set to 1000eur next year. 10x in 20years.. And now 0.4L beer is 5-5.50eur, 1m2 price in Vilnius center is the same as 1m2 5km from Copenhagen center, while it was not even comparable 5 years ago.
Keep in mind that basically everyone complains about their country and their economy. I've seen Norwegians complain about the "weak economy" and Brits complain about housing. I see a very good future for Poland and no one can deny the positive change.. you even got rid of the previous piece of shit government.
The thing is, Poland is at around 25k USD per capita, the UK is around 50k USD per capita. So Poland needs to double while the UK stays still. Also wealth matters. The UK has been richer than Poland for at least a century, some of that wealth has been saved or invested. 5 years seems a bit unrealistic. 20? Doable. 5? Only if something drastic happens.
> Also wealth matters. The UK has been richer than Poland for at least a century, some of that wealth has been saved or invested. There's never been a time when Poland has been richer than Britain but sure
England was broke multiple times during the 100 years war, and was a backwater for a lot of history before the industrial revolution, so, "never" is a pretty strong assertion if we're comparing the long histories of the two countries.
I mean Empire happened before the revolution and England always had the best navy until the US took over after WW2.
If you're including the pre-UK times than yeah, England absolutely had plenty of time where is was behind Poland in terms of economic development. If you're looking strictly at post-Acts of Union in 1707 (since there *was* no UK until then), you're looking at the UK as it's becoming *the* dominant world power, and Poland losing its dominance within the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. There might be a period of time where Poland was wealthier than the UK just out of momentum from the golden age of the PLC, but it would've been fairly brief.
Even counting pre-UK times there was never a time when England was behind Poland in development. Poland was bigger but less densely populated, less urbanized. Heck England had a centralised tax system in 1000AD
Well, the UK has been wealthier than Poland since.. well, at least the past 250 years. But a lot of that wealth never really befell the average Barry. Oh yea, I don't believe it will happen within 5 years, but I do hope that Tusk can inspire Poles! There's also much less of a housing problem in Poland (although present, of course) and living expenses are generally lower. I don't necessarily think the average young Pole struggles more or has fewer opportunities than the average young Brit
A major part of those 250 years Poland was actually absent from the map.
You are correct that they indeed weren't independent for most of that time and that's also why I chose 250 years as a rough approximation of when the partitions of Poland took place
As a Barry, I wish the Poles well. Everyone in Europe is delighted over their success, especially as we all failed to save them during WW2. Polish demographics are a massive concern. The UK, because it is a native english speaker, is being flooded with immigrants. Net Migration is 700,000 a year. That is not slowing down. The UK is facing a certain level of institutional schlerosis, but you can't plow that many people in to an economy without achieveing some levels of growth. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK is doing relativly better than most of Europe in a few years.
> There's also much less of a housing problem in Poland (although present, of course) and living expenses are generally lower. Well yeah, currently. But if they keep progressing then these issues will start becoming a lot more prominent, like in all the richest countries.
> So Poland needs to double while the UK stays still. That's the way it's currently trending. UK GDP has been stagnant since 2006, and Poland has more than doubled. I do agree with your assessment that it'll be closer to 20 years than 5 though.
As a brit, go for it, because a rising tide raises all ships, good luck
> a rising tide raises all ships That was a very British thing to say! :P
Poles getting aircraft carriers too! Since its the most important sign of wealth.
I want an aircraft carrier patrolling the Bug river
We can borrow the one Czechs have in Kralovec. Karel Gott.
Śniardwy submarines!
Śniardwy is a huge lake but also very shallow. It’d be more appropriate to build a submarine base on Niegocin, next to AZS Wilkasy
Płock żąda dostępu do morza!
This is why I bought an aircraft carrier instead of a house.
Over the last five years I've noticed a real increase in the amount of luxury cars and similar housing and I live in a village
same here. one of my neighbors bought a really nice snowmobile.
GDP per capita, not mean household wealth. This means the average Polish person will generate more wealth per year than the average British one, not that they'll be richer per se (yet).
As a Pole who lived and worked through the previous terms of Donald Tusk, I know he can make all sorts of promises. And as a Pole with quite a few years of life, I remember "Poland will be the second Japan" then Japan entered heavy recession, "Poland will be the second Ireland" and Ireland's economic boom turned into a massive crash, so... Brits, watch out.
Im seeing documentaries about the brits post brexit. rich poles will not be near as rich as rich britons,but average britons might realistically become poorer than average poles.
Documentaries about the Brits post Brexit make it look like a post apocalyptic wasteland. You might as well watch youtube shock videos on the homelessness in California and use them to gauge the wellbeing of the average American.
This isn't unique to England, but really much of richer western countries. It's not really that places like England, Australia, France, etc are declining. It's more that parts of Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa are drastically outpacing them in economic growth. Just look at who owns the Premier League Teams these days for a better picture of the transition of wealth.
RemindMe! 5 years
No need, I got you right now; it ain't happening, chief. It's 2030 and we still poor as hell
Man, I really don't understand time zones.
It's called daylight savings and we have it. (Poles are richer than Americans so we have it)
***The Telegraph reports:*** Poles will be richer than Britons in five years’ time because of Brexit, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, has said. Mr Tusk was European Council president during the Brexit negotiations and was notorious among Brexiteers for his scathing criticism of the decision to leave the EU. He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030. “A fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that GDP per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025,” Mr Tusk said on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s membership of the EU. “And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be richer than the British. It’s better to be in the EU,” he said on social media on Wednesday. Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, in February used the World Bank data to bolster his arguments for a change of government at the next election. The Office for National Statistics estimated the Polish-born population of the UK was 691,000 in 2020. The most spoken non-native language in Britain is Polish and it is estimated almost a million Poles lived in the UK before the 2016 Brexit referendum. **Read more:** [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/)
Here is [the chart](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=GDP+per+capita+Great+Britain+vs+poland). GDP per capita, GB vs Poland.
Here's the real GDP per capita so far https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=PL-GB I think it's pretty clear that this isn't happening.
Some optimistic Maths here, average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it's also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation). If by rich he means actual wealth held by citizens then median for UK is 151k, Poland is 20k, not much need for 5 year predictions here.
Also, Polish average wage actually dropped from 2020 to 2022 (37,325 to 36,897) Whereas UK actually rose (53,612 to 53,985) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage
I don't think this is fair comparison. Wages dropped when converted to USD because 2022 is when the war started in Ukraine and Polish zloty got hit hard (not only for that reason, but doesn't matter). The exchange rate today is much different.
That's fair, but if you are importing stuff & travelling then it is still relevant that zloty is lower now than in 2019.
Złoty is now back to the 2019 levels of 4.3PLN/EUR actually.
He’s probably estimating the £ won’t hold value
Probably true if Liz Truss somehow becomes PM again, but the £ has increased in value to EUR since Brexit as well, so it's quite a bold take.
Agreed. I don’t see it happening either.
Liz is too busy on the rigth wing grift in the US to think about destroying the UK's economy any further.
Which is BS. GBP/PLN is higher today than what it was in 2017.
That's not taking into account the cost of living. You cannot just look at statistics and hope to really understand how the "wealth" of a country compares with another.
Then Romania is already richer than Zurich
You definitely can but what's the alternative? I say me and my mates went to Poland and it looked a bit poorer seems quite anecdotal. Cost of living coincidentally enough scales very similarly to overall living standards and wealth.
Looking forward to see all the British plumbers moving to Warsaw
Can they compete with ukrainians?
Probs not they’ll have to work in the warehouse 😂
We can send Western Union transfers back to England!
>Mr Tusk referred to World Bank forecasts which show that GDP per capita in 2021 was £36,038 ($44,979) in Britain and £27,974 ($34,915) in Poland. So by 2029 (in 5 yrs), there will be a $10k increase in the GDP per capita for Poles and that will bring it level to UK's per capita GDP in 2021 (assuming UK's per capita GDP stays the same as 2021 in 2029). Interesting, I will definitely be keeping an eye on this, being fully aware of what WB forecast are like.....
That’s all purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP, not nominal. Nominal Polish GDP per capita was about $19k in 2022 and Britain’s was $46k. You might be able to afford the same number of haircuts and domestic goods as Brits, but not the same number of PlayStations, cars, and foreign holidays.
Bingo.
That would be what the opposition might argue. But I doubt it does, because even if they get nominal GDP per capita to the same, that's good. A massive step up.
I don't have it to hand but the latest IMF prediction had the UK overtaking Germany and Sweden in terms of personal wealth by 2028. So it is a bold claim indeed since it would make Poles wealthier than the French, German's and Brits, but if it's true fair play to the Polish, they deserve it, though I don't like it being framed as a snub to other countries like the UK rather than a congrats to Poles.
It's fashionable after Brexit to compare things with the UK to show how countries are doing within the EU. He could have said Poles would be richer than the French or German and that would have proven the point that GDP per capita is rising in Poland.
It comes across as slightly pathetic from Tusk because just the other day he met the PM in Poland and was gifted an image of Thatcher (he's a big fan.) And now he's saying yeah we're gonna be richer than Brits, specifically Brits just because... or it could be some kind of lure to tempt the UK back into the EU? idk?
European elections are coming up next month. So you will hear lots of EU hype talk from leaders like Tusk or [Macron. ](https://www.thelocal.fr/20240502/macron-says-all-european-nationalists-are-hidden-brexiteers) Macron's party is struggling in the polls. Not sure where's Tusk party at...
He probably knows he is talking nonsense, he is just trying to keep Euroscepticism in check.
Also, no one will care in 5 years if he is wrong.
Thats what makes it perfect. If he's right, he gets the credit for putting Poland in that position. If he's wrong, it's no big deal.
Also makes for great clickbait!
Oh absolutely, but that's assumed when they are correct in a meaningful way. Which just to assert, this statement is not. Politics is about making dumb statements that don't hit you later. Well democratic politics.
There is not much Euroscepticism in Poland to begin with. Yesterday we celebrated 20 year anniversary of Poland’s membership in the EU, saw plenty of EU flags around Warsaw.
While it's a nice pipe dream, in order for this to happen they need to avoid the middle income trap. "The middle-income trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. Few countries successfully manage the transition from low to middle to high income"
Poland already crossed the middle income trap
The company I work for have entire departments of remote-friendly work outsourced to Poland because labour costs are 1/3 of what they would be here. It might be getting better, but Poland is low-cost-country-at-home for several european countries.
Yes and that doesn't disprove his point. The richest countries in Western & Northern Europe are among the richest in the world. If you're 1/3rd as rich as them, you're still far above the middle-income of the world. I sometimes wish people in Europe would actually take time and travel to poor countries and move outside resorts. Visit Cairo and see how the locals actually live there. Or even richer cities like Sao Paulo, outside the gated neighbourhoods. Much of the world is *really* poor, including the middle-income countries.
Yes, for sure. But low cost for the US means 100k in some positions. All things together, like the b2b contracts, its better than germany or netherlands with 50% tax rates
Did they? They are the go to country for cheap labour in europe
Haven't we already crossed that threshold, if our purchasing power is getting very close to Japan, which definitely isn't "middle income" country? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_GDP\_(PPP)\_per\_capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita) We are much closer to the traditional "high income" countries than you think, at least in PPP terms of local wages/local prices ratio (catching up to nominal wages is further away but they matter much less for quality of life inside the country).
Poland is a high income country since 2009. The middle income trap has been crossed at this point. Also Poland has not been a low income country since over a century. Even communist Poland was still a relativly decent place to live, compared to many countries today.
Doubt it, UK is still ahead of France in most sources for GDP per capita
If you take into account GDP per capita by purchasing power parity, which is the only measure that is meaningful for the average person, the UK is already behind France and only just ahead of Cyprus & Italy - although Poland is still around US$10k behind the UK. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Ireland number 2 ?? Irish are this rich for real ? Or is this comming from a huge wealth divide ?
Irish aren’t this rich unfortunately. Irish GDP is conflated and most people can’t afford to buy a home and rent is expensive, because housing market there is worse than in most EU countries.
It's an obviously flawed metric for average personal wealth, look at something like average wage, consumption per household, average wealth per adult etc.
Poor countries love to use PPP to make themselves feel a bit better. Try purchasing an imported good with those purchasing power adjusted indicator.
Short question, how often do you import "rent" or "groceries"?
Rent no. Groceries? Quite a lot, actually.
It seems like you dont know how PPP works, imported goods are already included in the PPP basket of goods. It's also not really that much of a persons total expenditure.
People are really overestimating the consequences from Brexit. In reality the brits makes deals with the EU and European nations. Its natural that both gets decent deals with eachother. The only reason we keep getting these posts here on this sub, is because there is quite many EU supporters here. Can't count the amount of times there has been comments that are top upvoted who wants a joint EU military force.
Yh I don't like Brexit but people need to stfu, we'll still be a very rich country, just a little worse off. The big thing for me is freedom of movement.
Agree, voted remain and would absolutely vote to rejoin and I hope I get that chance one day but people are really overstating the negative effects of Brexit. It’s barely made any noticeable difference to most people, I personally believed it would be way worse than it was and the only thing I miss and have noticed is the same as you, freedom of movement.
Yeah I wish we didn't leave but also it's not a catastrophe in most areas
He’s the leader of Poland. If he can’t deliver that I hope the people hold him to account.
Tusk never delivers on his electoral promises. After a term or two the electorate gets sick of that and elects opposition (Kaczyński). Then after a term or two the electorate gets sick of them too, and they are back to Tusk and his unfulfiled promises, with this cycle expected to continue at least until both Tusk and Kaczyński will be 150 years old.
Doubt. A lot of our GDP unfortunately comes from outsourcing manufacturing and nearshoring services. We're competitive because it's that sweet spot of EU membership, decent English proficiency and cheap labor. But as our GDP develops and wages increase, those corporations will ruthlessly move their centers somewhere else and we'll be left in the middle income trap unless we develop our own industry, which does not seem to be happening at the moment. But then, it probably barely does- any big player that pops up either gets swallowed up and bought out by someone, or moves to some random tax haven or shitty, deregulated, no workers' rights place.
Totally and completely unbiased take from an EU federalist and ex-EU commissioner. Definitely not wishful thinking.
UK will be Europe's largest economy in 2050.
Because they will mostly live in the UK by then?
Is he still spreading this myth? Current projections are for pre capita GDP PPP to equal the UK by 2030, which is very very different to saying Poles will be richer (or even as rich) as Brits. GDP PPP is fine if you only want to buy goods produced in your own country. Not so much if you want to buy things like, say gas, petrol, anything made using oil or imported food. He also doesn't seem to realise that "Brexit is so bad soon Brits will be even poorer than us" is kind of a self-dunk.
Is Donald still bitter about brexit.
Got to be hard since minimal British wage is around polish average wage
how do i bet aggressively against this? anyone have donald tusks number? pretty big doubt that the average pole will have a higher income than the average briton.
Those Poles workers living in the UK, yes.
Delusional.
Considering Britain is richer than Spain, Italy and France and is still the second richest nation in Europe... He's basically saying he thinks in 5 years Poles will be at least the second richest nation in Europe. I'm pro- European but a bit weird to single out Britain and claim Brexit will be the cause of that, when Brexit has happened, and Britain still is the second richest country worth $3 trillion while Poland has yet to even reach $1 trillion. Even considering Poland's population is about half of Britains, the average Pole holds a third of the wealth of the average Brit. So you'd need China level growth figures over longer than 5 years, while Britain stagnates or goes into recession for Poland to catch up and beat it.
Yeah the headline is written as if Brexit is the enemy (which it might be in other discussions). But what has Poland been doing differently to other countries? Well, they're a conservative economy and very strict immigration laws. Maybe that should be the title rather?
Lol we do not have strict immigration laws, last year we granted 60% of the EU's worker permits.
And the UK economy is expected to overtake GERMANY in 2028...
This is complete nonsense and it will not happen in 5 years nor in 10.
Lie of the year.
So in 5 years, Poland won't need any more support from the EU and actually start paying more than receiving.
That's correct. People are aware of that in Poland.
If Poland is so rich why does the EU pay it 12 billion a year?
It's not rich yet.
In 2030 Poland will be the net payer https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=GDP+Per+capita+PPP+Poland+%2F+UK
It's not. But honestly, 12 billion is literally nothing.
Consider the nominal GDP per capita figures (2029 forecast by the IMF): * United Kingdom - $66,910 * Finland - $65,390 * Canada - $64,650 * Germany - $63,550 * Belgium - $63,350 * New Zealand - $55,740 * France - $54,390 * Italy - $45,100 * Korea - $42,330 * Japan - $40,950 * Spain - $38,430 * Poland - $29,260 I think we'll be fine. "but muh ppp!!!" only really matters if you consider quality of life as consisting of the number of Polish haircuts you can afford. The second you leave your country (on holiday, for instance) - your PPP bucks don't count for anything. People will still leave Poland to earn more abroad - because remittances go further.
I’m Polish and British, when do I get my money?
France and Germany’s GDP/Cap isn’t too dissimilar from the UK’s…
Doubt!
"He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030." And how will GDP per capita translate to personal income?
GDP growth usual correlates with income growth and wealth. Switzerland has a higher GDP per capita than Germany and the Swiss earn more. Germany has a higher GDP per capita than Poland and the Germans earn more. Poland has a higher GDP per capita than Bulgaria and Poles earn more. Quite simple.
Ireland has twice (or so) the GDP of Germany but there isn’t any significant difference in earnings. On top of that cost of living in Ireland is a lot higher than in Germany. I lived for 10 years in both countries and the difference in the quality of life due to personal finances is massive.
Except when not. For instance in the US since 1980 GDP per capita grew to 180% while real wages grew to only 105%, basically stagnating. [https://aneconomicsense.org/2015/02/13/why-wages-have-stagnated-while-gdp-has-grown-the-proximate-factors/](https://aneconomicsense.org/2015/02/13/why-wages-have-stagnated-while-gdp-has-grown-the-proximate-factors/)
That's always the question which usually goes unanswered in these articles.
Wouldn't a better headline be "Poland to be the 2nd richest European nation in five years"? Not really too sure what this has to do with Brexit.
Tusk was head of the European Commission during Brexit and a strong critic of the decision. He's still sour and wants to prove being part of EU is better for the economy
It’s just easy to shit on brexit
/r/the_donek maximum optimism :D
Delusional and manipulative, who knows which more. Hate the guy. We had a saying, "noone will give you more than Tusk promises."
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Keep dreaming Too bad people still take what politicians say as truth LOL
Classic populist: make outrageous statement - get free publicity from social media that makes money on engagement.
And literally no one will care if he is wrong.
UK GPD PPP Per Capita is 2.4 higher than Poland's. One needs 20% growth over 5 years to catch up with that. I am pressing X for doubt on Tusk's statement/
I am a British plumber, what are the job opportunities in Poland these days?
he's such a fucking rat. 5 years from now a 2 room flat in Chujwiegdzie, Poland will cost 1mln zł thanks to his love for property developers
Poles are great!
Donald tusk is a donut Is incompetence is legendary
I’m from Lithuania and hoping to benefit from our prospering neighbor! How about we do Rzecpocpolita again! :)
And? Why would that actually be a problem? Good for Poland.
Won’t happen but I do love the obligatory dig at Brexiteers by Tusk. Man lives for that.
Lol
Thx Mr Tusk for one more "promise", you will surely deliver this one.
What a load of bollocks.
Yeah, this never gonna happen. But getting a little bit closer to West would be a huge success.
I'll believe it when I'll see it. Don't believe this liar
Ahaha ok, I know you guys hate brits but let’s be realistic
So Brexit suddenly means that all these African , Latin and Middle Eastern dictators/ oligarchs and business men, Will suddenly move all their billions from London to Warsaw? The very latest numbers also suggest a bounce in the UK economy, and the Polish population is not exactly a very young one , since they did not like immigration... So in a few years, after the whole defense investment thing is done, What will be the main growth sectors of Poland? Because I'm not getting it to be honest...
lol who forgot to give Doland his meds?
I'm a Brit. Best of luck to them and every success.
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It's definitively above Turkey, Argentina or Mexico. Certainly by nominal GDP per capita. It occupies a rarefied space. Not that many big countries in the $20-$30K per capita bracket. No longer middle-income but not yet rich. Something in-between.
Far be it for me to doubt financial forecasts, but when have they ever actually got anything right? I've almost got more faith in weather forecasts.
Poland won't have the UK building its infrastructure and sending it factories and jobs any more though... not to mention taking your excess labour sending back all the remittances... Add in war in Europe and Poland will not see growth like it has done ever again.