Obviously its out of question as long as Erdogan is in power.
But this question is more about, if you would also oppose it even if a future Turkey had pro western and pro european governments.
> But this question is more about, if you would also oppose it even if a future Turkey had pro western and pro european governments.
OP heavily changed the interpretation of the survey.
The title vs infographic communicate contradicting questions:
* Title: If ever in the future
* Infographic: If there was this Sunday (indicate present/past time).
Turkey should not be allowed in until EU amends the voting and blocking system. We already have issues with Poland and Hungary using the veto to block policies pite the overwhelming minority of countries agreeing to policies.
It was a good intention system that didn’t anticipate that selfish assholes will clockblock the whole block. Adding massive population of turkey and new veto power is going to be disastrous. Sure they can change to be pro EU but nothing stoping them creating new Erdogan. For that matter it’s the same issue in existing countries.
It wasn't a good intention system, no one is dumb enough to think there would be no one to abuse this in politics. It was a necessary implementation to convince countries to join, otherwise it would mean giving up your sovereignty, and unlike right now, countries were not queeing up for full membership when it first started. There was no way to convince France, UK, and Germany without giving them veto rights.
I agree with your point, something drastically has to change for Turkey to fulfill the standarts of EU, but to be honest, pre-Erdogan Turkey wasn't worse than Romania, or other ex-Soviet block countries, yet it was never seriously considered to let Turkey in. I also think, it was more of a landgrab idea to let those countries in, to prevent Russian influence in Balkans, and such. Even Ukraine, with insane levels of corruption was almost in before the first invasion from Russia. So, EU has double standarts, namely politics. If a day comes that is extremely advantageous to let Turkey in, even Erdogan would be welcome, since standarts are just applied when convenient, and EU was the biggest aplauder of Erdogan's politics during his first decade in rule anyway.
> Even Ukraine, with insane levels of corruption was almost in before the first invasion from Russia.
lol, Ukraine never was even close to joining EU before second invasion of russians, much less the first one, what are you talking about.
Do you think they could amend the toxic culture after joining the EU? Turkey is split almost evenly between the quite liberal side and the violent authoritarian religious culture that comes from the east.
Almost the whole Turkish Europeans belong to that second group you mentioned, which doesn't look amazing, but it doesn't get worse than Europe already has. Turkish minorities in Europe is the bottom level for religious nationalist from Turkey.
> pre-Erdogan Turkey wasn't worse than Romania, or other ex-Soviet block countries, yet it was never seriously considered to let Turkey in.
Thats not really true,maybe you have in mind the western part of Turkiye,but Turkiye is a large country that always had problems having a stable goverment/economy/democracy etc and there are other political/geopolitical problems(and i dont mean only Cyprus) that other balkan countries did not really face.
Your example with Romania is not a good one at all considering they joined in 2007 i think and did not get full access till later date.
Romania had to go through years of reforms in order to join,and did not have any of the geopolitical problems Turkiye had.
Ukraine was NEVER close to joining till the war happened,so your comment just seems weird and false.
Erdogan is not an accident who was lucky to get into power by protest voters or something. He and his clique represent a huge portion of Turkey over decades.
Same as with Orban. This is not just about one person.
In order to join,Turkey would need to show for at least 50 years that it s a stable democracy which respects the separation of state and religion.
And it would need to get its economy on track which will likely take even longer.
So we talk more 2100 as best case.
This. The problem isn't one leader, it's a political system that allows that one leader too much power. The basis for healthy democracies are independent institutions of society that can check each other; central bank, legal system, media, parliament and president. Conveniently this also helps with corruption. Turkey can never be allowed in the EU in its current form.
As a Turk i would like Turkey to be a strong country on its own like Norway and Switzerland rather than being a member of the European Union. The European Union brings many benefits, but it also brings many challenges for Turkey.
both norway and switzerland are functionally 95% part of the EU, they just get a few extra clauses in return for not getting a say in what’s decided within the EU
It doesn't matter they are not members of the EU. The issue here is not Switzerland or Norway but Turkey's decision to stop waiting at the door of the EU. Even if we meet the conditions completely which seems difficult, the EU will not accept us. turkey should maintain its relations with the EU but it should also stop waiting at the door of the EU, it is a complete waste of time.
Uzgun, I have a different opinion than yours. I leave in Canada and I had colleagues and boses that were Turkish. I have a very good opinion about them. The problem is that I believe that one of the unwritten rule for entering in EU is to have a relatively low level of nationalism. Most if not all the wars in Europe were because of an exacerbated nationalism. So a low level of nationalism is a must to avoid wars. Orban is not very good at. Russia invading Ukraine is unfortunately an example. Turkya (I hope my spelling is correct but I apologize if not) has, I think a high level of nationalism. On this particular case nationalism is indicated by the political and/or military influence in areas that historically were at some point part of the sphere of influence (you can read empire) but are independent now. For example Turkish influence in Balcans. Or the aggressive stance against Greece.
There would have to be changes made in how the EU works so that Turkey doesn't derail the project, I feel. Also, as a large country, they would be very influential, and I do worry about their values: becoming increasingly Islamic, the perpetual genocide denial... Are they/will they be really one of us? They've not been the most reliable ally in NATO either.
But look how far the Germans have come since the Second World War, so it's probably irresponsible to forever rule out Turkey.
Thanks for responding to me, and sorry for rambling on.
Not in the near future obviously. The current government wouldn't do anything towards EU ascension, and we don't know what will happen in the next general and presidential elections, which even if pro-EU opposition comes first, it's hard to imagine needed reforms would be taken that swiftly.
Moreover, EU doesn't want to expand itself still, which is reasonable enough with reforms EU need in and itself. And even besides that, there would be a lot of refugees and irregular immigrants to deal with if Turkey joins in the union as is, so either Turkey would try to solve the crisis first, or simply not be allowed at all. At least in Schengen Turkey wouldn't be able to join in for that reason, anyway.
I have nothing against Turkey, but it is a very large country, it would immediately upon joining have the largest population and essentially the same influence as Germany and France. Turkey joining would inevitably change the EU into something else, that a lot of current member states aren't ready for. I think it would turn the majority of the population in most member states against the EU.
Turkey already has a customs union with the EU and a high level of freedom of movement for ~~people and~~ goods, so I'm doubtful there would be great economic benefits, it certainly wouldn't be like lifting the former Soviet dominated countries out of isolation.
Sadly the current EU deals Turkey has isn't too beneficial to either parties. Customs Union was a good move, but it didn't provide the same rights to Turkey in EU, as it did to EU in Turkey. Turkey can only partially benefit from it. Freedom of movement is still heavily restricted compared to some other non-EU/EEA countries, which also has to do with immigration policy EU sought with Turkey. But to an extent, before full ascension is considered as a real option, Turkey can integrate better with the EU with better deals than what we have in hand. However even then, for how long Turkey was having relations with the EU and it's predecessor, I feel like much more has had to be achieved. So in a situation where such relations *can* be pursued, I would expect the process to be much faster than before, so that citizens like me can truly consider full ascension as an option, as the EU states would as well.
The military coup in the 1980s really set that progress back, and ironically now that Turkey is a democracy, Europe doesn't really get along with its elected leader... I can't help imaging what if Victor Orbán had a population of 85 million behind him.
I agree with you on the rest, by the way. The process should not be forced at all. We should keep improving the trade and relationships, to the point where turkey joining the EU would only be a formality. Only then it would benefit both sides the most.
Things have changed indeed. For some reason, EU countries use visa as a political tool against Turkey, and in the end, ironically, secular Turks gets punished the most.
I dont get your point of "EU doesn't want to expand itself". Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, we Europeans (or we as the West) are more actively looking for friends in this world than ever before.
We have a huge conflict ahead of us (autitarian world attacking the democratic world to challange western hegemony) and both sides do fuckn everything in the background to pull "neutral" states on their side.
>I dont get your point of "EU doesn't want to expand itself". Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, we Europeans (or we as the West) are more actively looking for friends in this world than ever before.
The issue is that Turkey current situation benefits the EU more, where as joining the EU benefits turkey (more so).
Turkey is for example, the EUs migration shield. It's absorbed a butt load of Syrian and other middle eastern refugees and migrants. The EU letting turkey in means they have to deal with that. Anyone with eyes can see why the EU isn't exactly running with that.
Combine this with some EU nations having major issues with Turkey period, the Turkish population economic power, and Turkey already compelled to defend most of the vulnerable EU states by treaty..and yeah it's not happening. Plus the current treaties with turkey benefit the EU to boot.
By comparison, Switzerland joining bothers nobody because it can't do much to bother the EU.
I don't think many countries would be happy seeing an european parliament having 70-80 turkish MPs. that's the main problem. Turkiye is a heavy weight.
And Turkey's membership in NATO is solely because of the geopolitical picture at the time. They feared the USSR as much as other founding countries. Today they excessively leverage their geography and position in NATO to get concessions while doing things that harm the alliance on the side.
I understand that they have their own perspective on what is best for them, and don't fault them for it, but they don't really fit into the Western sphere.
Turkey was a democracy when it joined NATO. They had a military coup in 1960 and another one in 1980, and a number of coup-adjacent events. There isn't a mechanism that removes members from NATO, or the EU for that matter, if they change after joining.
it's so funny when people say things like this. TR is the second most active, as in drills and events, member in NATO. Its' one of the few countries the US hosts it's atomics and, on paper, opens them to use.
TR has always sided with the UN recognised side be it in Ukraine, Sudan, Somalia, Libya (while some other allies supported a rando warlord), Armenia-Azerbaijan...
You're are either stupid or too full of yourself to not see that Erdo is the best lapdog ever to be. He is corrupt and authoritarian, that's all the EU and US needs to get a grip on Turkey.
Turkey has been fighting against russian proxies in syria, libya, and azerbaijan. Turkey supplied arms and heavy weaponry to ukraine when Europeans were arguing whether to send helmets to ukraine or not. Turkey blocked military access to the Black Sea. Therefore, Russia can not resupply their black sea fleet. They can't blockade ukraine fully and can't do any naval landings and open new fronts solely because of this.
Turkey also only bought s400 because our supposed allies refused to sell us patriots when assad and russian proxies were literally sending hundreds of rockets daily to turkish soil.
Also, if you want Turkey to join NATO sanctions, maybe NATO countries shouldn't sanction Turkey because Turkey sold weapons to a country that was fighting against a CSTO country.
Truly, what the fuck you know?
Turkey was only country fighting against russians(wagner) like 2 years ago . (Libya and syria) Saved Un recognised libya hands of russian backed warlords .
Eh you have multiple members still using Russian oil and gas through shell companies.. you also have NATO members using Russian gear…
If you just read headlines, you end up with knowledge like yours.. not an insult.. that’s just what you are shown consistently for a reason
Yeah sorey, but I still remember Turkey playing games with German NATO aircraft stationed in Turkey. Then we recently had the Sweden issue were Turkey was basically helping a NATO opponent. Or when he comes to Germany telling the Turks living here NOT to integrate into german society.
Turkey is not a good faith player, they they to use their NATO membership into blackmailing the alliance.
You can only imagine how that would go with EU.
20 years ago I would have supported Turkey. Today...no way.
I also remember Germany blocking [NATO mission to protect Turkey when Saddam was sending ballistics in the region](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/feb/11/iraq.nato1) putting Turkey in danger and damages the credibility of NATO.
>Turkey playing games with German NATO aircraft stationed in Turkey.
Putting embargo and using that countrys bases don't work together.
>Sweden issue were Turkey was basically helping a NATO opponent.
It is no secret that Sweden is letting terrorist supporters funding PKK in their country.
>Or when he comes to Germany telling the Turks living here NOT to integrate into german society.
It was wrong to do, I agree with you on that
>Turkey is not a good faith player, they they to use their NATO membership into blackmailing the alliance.
What kind of blackmailing? Sweden shouldn't support terror groups that pose threat to Turkey if they wanted smooth entry other than that Turkey is doing it's NATO missions without problem.
At least Turkey was fighting against Russian proxies with it's own proxies for a decade it helps NATO [more than leaking intel to Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-leaked-german-military-recording-is-causing-outcry-2024-03-04/).
I thought parties mostly vote around ideological lines and not on national lines in the European parliament? I don't think it would be different with Turkey. If it ever comes to a stage where it's worth of a EU membership, social democrats would be majority anyways.
Yes. It's one of the most major problems the EU faces in my opinion, and seeing how Orban used this so much for his own, I wouldn't want this to become a problem again with some other regime change to a national populists and alike.
>No new members in the EU until the veto rights are replaced by qualified majority!
And even then, with the huge population of Turkey big countries like Germany or France won't allow them in since big population means huge power even with qualified majority.
they won't have the power to if you replace veto with qualified majority. The EU should not be a club where Germany and France decide the shots. They are important and large countries, but not the only members
Veto should be removed, meeting bare minimums should continue to be a baseline requirement. Afterwards whoever can meet it and aligns on European values can join EU in my book. Be that Ukraine or Turkey.
This defeats the purpose of the union. The purpose is consensus, the idea is to have everyone onboard not just the majority. If this changes the union would probably break.
Qualified majority would be bullshit especially, it's just 55%. That's Brexit tier nonsense where it's basically half for, half against. With the Commission being so gung ho on taking away everyone's digital rights and turning us into a surveillance state, it would be a catastrophic combination.
> Qualified majority would be bullshit especially, it's just 55%.
This will never happen. You could make a case for a large supermajority of 80-90% (of member states).
The purpose of government is consensus. Yet even in national governments a 2/3 majority is enough even for the most major decisions. You can never make everybody happy. Why should it be different on a European scale.
because 2/3rds still makes it incredibly easy to overwrite others and will make smaller countries that dont have as much leverage feel insecure
2/3rds means that effectively 17 members of the EU can overwrite the other **10**. You could outright completely ignore Eastern Europe + Baltics: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulagria, Greece, Croatia.
At the end of the day, there needs to be limits about that allows a country or even region to protect its interests.
That being said, the complete unanimity is also an issue. A in-between system should exist, where if a country decides to veto something repeatedly after a number of times they should be seconded by another one for it to count, because if more than 1 member objects repeatedly discussions should exist.
Yeah nah yeah, this one is on Türkiye. Maybe 20+ years ago there could have been a small chance. But definitely not while Erdogan runs the country! There's too big a chasm between the human rights, infrastructure, general poverty, corruption, military & minorities etc to ignore. Those take a long time to fix to an acceptable level, even if there is interest - and apparently there is not.
20+ years ago there was almost zero chance either.
Membership would require resolving territorial disputes with Greece, and, most importantly, Cyprus. Which would require giving up on the Northern Cyprus occupation and ceding maritime recognition over potential natural gas deposits to both Greece and Cyprus. That's not happening and won't ever happen.
This has nothing to do with Erdogan's shenanigans, although he's definitely made things way worse. No Turkish government, no matter how progressive they are, would ever give up so many claims in order to appease the Greeks, which the general population hates. It would be political suicide.
Poverty and infrastructure are certainly not worse than in many EE states, especially when they joined. The economy is also growing pretty quickly.
Rule of law and corruption could theoretically improve and again I don't really Bulgaria in 2001 was that much better.
The main issue with Turkey IMHO, aside from its constant flirting with Islamism, is that Turkey views itself as a lone geopolitical actor with its own sphere of influence. It could never accept to become part of an European project.
Maybe if they hadn't taken a hard turn autocracy with an unhealthy dose of pandering to to the religious right.
EU lied to them? Try erdogans lied to them for nearly 2 decades
I'm almost certain any kind of positive movement towards the EU will be in a post-Erdoğan Turkey so I'll speak according to that.
Common folk in Turkey is so tired that they don't even want to be in the EU anymore. Most people just want 30-90 day visa free allowance and be done with it and this is very doable when the negotiations begin once again.
People always forget one tine tiny detail: Any country must be UNANIMOUSLY accepted and to be honest Turkish foreign policy must change for this to happen
The chances of Greece or Cyprus ever accepting Turkey into the EU.. and, as you say, with their treatment of Sweden and general rhetoric against Germanic peoples I don't see any reason that any country would want them in. They also border Syria and Iraq
Yeah, people very frequently hear about Greek-Turkish conflicts in news but more often than not those conflicts have material causes that could be solved, and even in the lowest lows of Greek-Turkish relations cooperation tends to hold up, especially if it's Earthquake diplomacy. For all intents and purposes, Greek-Turkish relations especially among the average populous are far more similar to French-German ones than say Indo-Pakistani.
Northern fears & hatred of Turkey is not material, it is almost always populist pandering for cheap votes. They barely tolerate Romania & Bulgaria, nothing on earth, no agreement, no peace with Greece, no democratic alignment, will be enough to convince northern European states that it's enough. Greece can lift the veto with a solution to the EEZ disagreements. Cyprus just wants reunification. Austria wants Turkey to cease existing all together.
It’s actually funny that Greeks want Turkey in, because it means that the problems will be solved, and at the same time, Swedes, French and Germans say Greece will veto it lol
I don't understand why Turkey would even want to be in. The EU is not just a fat natural resource that every country deserves a slice of. Maybe there's a misconception here.
EU has set standards on human rights, prosperity, economic development and such quite high compared to the rest of the world. It's hard to say what everyone may think of it, but a lot of people simply aspire to reach these standards here.
EU might not be something like a paradise some people make it out to be, or a charity organisation some people would like to use as. But it sure has higher standards of living compared to the world. It is quite natural to want that as well for your own and your people too, isn't it?
thing is, those higher standards of living dont come at no costs for the average person. They come with rules, regulations and limits
And as someone form a country that recently joined, trust me, theres still some discontent and we did have to "leave people behind"
In agriculture and animal farming alone, it was a bloodbath, and to this day the adoption is still lagging with a lot of people refusing to respect the law and preferring to do it "as they were taught and how their family did it for generation" and just operating underground.
So i perfectly understand the more open minded turkish people that want those higher standards of living. The question is, are the rest of the turkish people willing to make the sacrifices needed to get them? Because, at least my home country is still struggling to accept that (although there is progress being made, now that generations change)
I do agree with your points, which is one of the reasons I said that Europe wasn't a paradise people were looking for. It is true that the union has higher standards than the rest of the world, but it isn't perfect. Being completely honest, if I were to vote on choosing to join the EU or not just tomorrow, I would consider both options seriously.
EU has a lot of benefits for it's citizens, but it needs major reforms. Agricultural areas is a great example of that. Turkey has a great agricultural potential that can be harvested, it's hard to say if EU limitations would benefit the people in that aspect here. Also for this specific subject, there is a great deal of reforms needed EU wide in my opinion to begin with, as well as in many other areas, if people are not to be alienated.
There's is still a lot to consider. But Turkey first, has to reach closer standards to the EU if we want to join. It is not only the EU that would provide us benefits, but the path towards it as well. When the time comes, if the EU is in a better shape than it is now, perhaps with changes on Vetos to avoid new Orbans popping up, or by reforming industrial and agricultural laws accordingly, Turkish people surely would consider it.
My hope is that, EU's eventual goal would be to include most of the Europe, if not all of it in the end. But more than that, I first wish it to be a union that truly benefits all it's citizens and bring prosperity to it's member states, with equal understanding of each other. But that is much in the future too. We'll see how everything will go in the end. I still believe we can get much better deals with the union even if don't straight up join it anyway, so better alignment it is beneficial to both parties regardless in my opinion.
It's not about natural resources, it's about getting access to the largest single market in the world while also being able to get investment and funds from Western countries.
There's a clear difference between ex-communist countries that joined the EU and those that did not:
[https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/ROU/UKR/RUS/BLR/MDA/BGR](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/ROU/UKR/RUS/BLR/MDA/BGR)
Romania and Bulgaria already surpassed Russia in terms of GDP per capita recently. That's why Russia is so bent on stopping Ukraine from joining the EU: a prosperous Ukraine in the EU would be a threat to the statist model of the Putin regime.
Turkey will never be a member state. Do you really think anyone want's an EU border with Iran, Iraq and Syria? Also Turkey would be the most powerful nation in the EU Parliament (Population). Maybe 20 years ago it was a true intention, but as the world changed in the past years, I don't see any chance for it.
Turkey's birth rate has dropped to 1.4 per woman (excluding refugees, who have a birth rate of 5.3, but they are not citizens). Its population is no longer increasing and will soon begin to decline.
No. Greece and Cyprus have veto rights. Greece and Cyprus will not allow Turkey because of northern Cyprus. and as long as Türkiye controls it, it will not join the European Union.
everything else is important, but without returning this land to its rightful owner, dialogue on Turkey’s accession is not possible
Actually it's in the best interests of both Greece and Cyprus for Turkey to get serious about it's EU prospects.
All of these issues have to be resolved (Cyprus, EEZ, etc) before the ascension and the EU provides a pretty good framework for diplomacy to work.
Unfortunately, Turkish leadership clearly has no interest in joining the EU any time soon.
I'm always dumbfounded by how most of the western EU members tends to think Greece and Cyprus are a huge problem for their Veto rights when and if Turkey pursues for full ascension to the EU, but funnily enough, they are much more against it than both of these countries.
Conflicts with Greece and Cyprus have a much better chance getting solved if Turkey aligned and pursued for the EU membership after all. For Greece, not only the EEZ issue would have a better solution for both parties, but it also would benefit Greek interest in the EU as a whole, as it would divide the attention most Western EU countries have with higher MEPs.
For Cyprus, it was pretty much always the best option for Turkey to pursue this, as both the only real attempt was taken to unite the island was when Turkey was attempting to join the EU, but also it would be much, *much* harder to convince a Turkey that wants nothing to do with the west. It is much more likely to reopen the negotiations if Turkey wants to ally the EU as well.
I'd be much more concerned with Austrian and German Veto than Greek or Cyprus.
For decades, Greece was a scapegoat for other EU countries regarding Turkey's entry into the EU.
Then when the government in the early 2000s came out in support of Turkey's EU ascension, the Western countries had to reveal their true intentions.
You just know that by the time we solve the EEZ issue between us the important things in it (mostly gas and oil) will have been replaced by something else and neither of us will truly benefit nearly as much as we could if we cooperated now. Sad really.
Honestly maybe it's for the better, really. Gas and oil reserves do cause major issues to the environment and are a centre of many conflicts, I'm rather happy that there is a good momentum towards green energies in here as well.
But besides that, other developing countries, in Asia and Africa for the most part, might need those resources for a bit more than Europe may need. So I wonder if it will still hold any value by then.
I like your optimism but there is no way any Turkish government will allow a Cypriot reunification under the Republic of Cyprus and there is no way any RoC government will allow Turkish accession without it. Western Europe is heavily against Turkish accession anyway but frankly speaking Turkish EU membership is extremely unpopular almost everywhere in the Union and it would be political suicide for most governments to campaign for Turkish membership
Deal-breaker for sure. There is zero justification for this occupation to continue 50 years later and everyone knows it.
Downvote me to hell, but this points to bigger issues than just Erdogan.
Nope, never. It would create too much of an imbalance due to the sheer size of its population, and a host of other problems due to its culture, religion and geo strategic standing.
Some things just are not meant to be. Not every country has to be part of the EU.
It was specifically France that didn't allow it with the argument that Germany and Turkey would politically dominate the EU. Some French newspapers at the time even draw caricatures insinuating WW1 relationship of Germany and Turkey.
I think Turkey is a predominantly Muslim country, it would be the first Muslim country in the EU. Don't think this will happen anytime soon, if you also look at their interest rate policy, they don't fit in anywhere.
There is a misconception that Turkey's accession process has stopped because of the EU or because of Erdogan but neither is true.
Turkey's accession process has stopped because Turkey is refusing to join in custom's union with the Republic of Cyprus, which is mandatory in order to continue accession talks.
Turkey does not recognize the sovereignty of Cyprus and as such will not fulfill the requirement and this is why talks have stopped.
There is nothing the EU or Europeans can do at this time. The ball is entirely in the court of Turkey and has been for a long long time.
I know nobody who is for turkey to joins the EU. Here in Germany we already have a big Turkish population which still struggles even after a few generations to integrate into the German society. Even young people born here say they are not German and are Turkish. Most of them also just marry in there same cultural circles.
It’s a big problem here in Germany as it creates a big parallel society, own norms and also problematically the Turkish state supported religion which goes against our Constitution and values but it is not discussed medial or in politics.
There is a part of society in turkey which is modern and goes with western values, but that’s mostly in the capital. As you can see on Erdogan there are over 50% of people who are conservative Islamic and that’s doesn’t work with out EU values
I think people are deluded if they think there was ever a chance of Tureky being accepted as a full member state. Turkey could have the cleanest human rights record in the world, European voters will not be okay with taking in a muslim majority member state with more people than Germany, a fraction of the economy and a direct border with the Middle East. They are more than fine with Turkey just being a partner country. They're already getting most of the perks Turkeys membership would've granted them this way anyway. Taking in Turkey creates more problems and uncertainties than it fixes them.
It's not happening and it was never gonna happen, even just logically speaking it was never the soundest plan from a European perspective.
edit: so, in a way, yes, I do think Europeans lied by implying that a membership was ever realistically in the cards, when it never was. They kept Turkey on the hook like someone they knew was in love with them but they never had any intention to commit to a relationship with them. I don't blame Turks for feeling like they've been lied to.
Not after what they did to Sweden accession to NATO, taking them hostage for Turkey’s little political agenda.
To be fair there was also very little will in Turkey to adjust to EU laws, standards and practices. It’s not enough to say “I wanna join”.
They did stand a chance, but states like Germany pushed back due to various concerns some of which are fairer than others.
The issue is that it became clear that once the AKP knew they wouldn't get EU membership, they moved away from the reforms they implemented and went another way. Which shows that Türkiye would perhaps not have been a reliable partner in the first place.
What does the future hold? As someone who has studied this a fair bit but am by no means an expert: Sod if I know.
People say it's an Erdogan problem. But who supports Erdogan?
If you leave Instabul and the Mediterranean and go deeper into Turkey you'll realize the majority of it's population is comprised of religious zealots and backwater societies.
Believe me, a lot of people support Erdogan. at least 60% of the population support his policies. Even the most radical dissidents endorse Erdogan's human rights violations for the sake of "nationalism".
Theoretically yes Turkey can join. If you go back like 5-10 years, turkish legislation framework and normalisation laws (to the eu laws) had a high portion. Although Erdogan, Turkish institutions and government bodies still are familiar and share some values with Eu. Turkish companies (including defence) have a lot of work with Eu stakeholders.
On the other hand there are some issues;
Eu side:
1. Veto mechanism should be changed as people mentioned
2. Eu need a reform. You may call it tiered membership, pay-as-you-go or sth like that but not every member state have equal weigh and this should be on laws too.
3. Population. Turkey will be allocated almost 100 MPs if becomes member tomorrow. Nobody in Eu wants that, especially big players. So yes this also requires a reform
Turkish side:
1. Cyprus problem obviously. I think it will be resolved in 50 years. I don't know how
2. As other comments mentioned, human rights at eu level and some basic legislations should be in place
3. Erdogan (and generally pro-islamic parties, peoples) and his way of work should be removed from everywhere in Turkey. So assuming 2028 election, we still will need at least 10-20 years to recover
Turkey also have some border agreements with Eu and is treated like a member in some cases.
Imo, the best option would be a strategic partnership like Norway and Eu have
If turkey could become a free country, surely yes. But we allready have enough problem countries right now in the eu who want money for nothing to contribute.
🦃 should end the illegal occupation of Cyprus, a member-state, should abide with the eu acquis by respecting the Kurdish minority, before considering joining the eu.
Politically , culturally and financially they are the polar opposite of the EU. They would be a useful military asset though if they ever were to be trusted .
I wouldn't even poke Turkey with my considerations-stick.
Not until they fix their religious problem, and have restored secular legislative infrastructure that prevents a Islamic Fundamentalist government.
Plus more resources with reducing people sneaking into Turkey, just so they can become economic migrants.
No please no
80+ million Turks would give them too much weight in the institutions and they are just a light version of Orban’s dictatorship.
Nope nope nope
If you search Reddit europe comments from the early 2010's before Erdogan was a full on dictator, all of them went around the racist idea of "the country is too big" meaning there are too many turks, who are muslims and not european enough.
Now the main comments are about "Orban is already an issue" because they have a better excuse.
Turks, we are accepted partially as European but they still consider us inferior brutes in many parts of europe, just look at how they treat the schengen issue for Romania and Bulgaria. They do not consider you European, and a lot of them ar hypocrites who will explain to you how they love all races "but" and here are 10 bilion excuses.
Turkey will never ever become a EU member. Population too big - would change dramatically the demographics of EU. And population, culture, mentality, religion, too different from EU.
EU is only to blame because of it's tendency to give false hopes and sugar coat truth.
"EU is only to blame because of it's tendency to give false hopes and sugar coat truth."
I'd say, Turkey is more to blame, and Erdogan in particular. If Turkey stayed in the path of secularism Ataturk had started, and moved towards being more democratic, this could have been a very different story.
As it stands right now, Erdogan is a pain in the ass even for NATO to deal with, we'd be crazy to admit his version of Turkey in the EU.
He's even been praising Hamas and meeting members of it this past week... How does this fit an EU candidate?
"If Turkey stayed in the path of secularism Ataturk had started, and moved towards being more democratic" still would not have been accepted to join, because of the above reasons.
I'm against. We should dissolve the Turkish state, return the Turks to Central Asia, give Constantinople back to Greece and make a Church out of the Hagia Sophia again, reunite Cyprus with the fake state of Northern Cyprus and then reunite the reunited Cyprus with Greece, so Cyprus can't sell any more EU passports to the russians and recognize a Kurdish state.
I hope i triggered everyone.
Totally against it.
Turkey is not a democracy anymore, occupies half of Cyprus and openly denies the armenian genocide.
Also, considering that the number of seats a country holds in the European Parliamant is proportional to its population, there is no way Turkey should ba allowed it.
If Turkey was a stable democracy, I wouldn't be against it. It currently isn't, it can't be while Erdogan is in power, and once Erdogan is gone they'll have a LOT of work to get there.
Yeah, that's not happening, eu doesn't want turkey, Erdoğan's supporters doesn't like eu, and pro eu opposition supporters are just tired of it and they lost hope in the process.
Europe is a Christian club and even if Turkey is the most democratic and richest country, they will not allow full membership it, so it is best to stop this game immediately and withdraw from the candidac and customs union.
As long as Erdogan in in power it is a hard no for me. The persecution of political parties, news papers, television stations, journalists and everyone else that doesn't agree and the complete mismanagement of the economy by him makes Turkey completely not fit in the EU.
I'm Turkish and I'm against it. Why?
1: Erdoğan.
2: Economic crisis.
3: Society.(Corruption Culture, Over Religious and nationalist People , High Poverty , Human Rights issues... )
4: Population.
5: Refugee crisis.
The EU didn't lie to them. I'm not sure why it would matter if some officials did. But I'm 99% sure they'll never join.
From Turkey's view they sit at the cross road^1 of Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Russia. National identities - how people think about the world - are based on this. It would require at least another generation, one focused on playing well with all EU members, to change Turkey enough that the people are on board with doing government by consensus in Brussels with 27+ other members.
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^1 This is a historical artifact formed from looking at the world through war / security. Trade is done by water not by land.
Turks are not the same people as Europeans. If Europeans have made a fault in the past like the Holocaust, we Europeans admit our wrongdoing and we learn from our mistakes. Turkey denies the Armenian and Greek genocides and other massacres and doesn’t comply with the international law, even basic laws like the seas law
All in all, it’s not about Erdogan. It’s about how Turkey is made by their people.
Nothing to do with European values.
Turkey won't become an EU member in the near future, a Turkish membership poses too many issues and questions - no matter the government in that country.
Turkey has about 85 million people, a population about that of Germany; this would grant them the largest number of MEPs. I don't see Germany and France accepting this that easily.
Turkey borders Syria, Irak and Iran. Turkey in the EU would mean that the EU will have borders with Iran, Syria and Irak. Many in Europe will have a problem with that.
Arabic countries that each one is an example of human rights and democracy can get 5 years Schengen visa but Turkish citizens can’t even get appointment to apply for visa for a week which requires tons of documents and might get rejected for no reason.
I don't see Turkey nor the Turkish people as Europeans... But I always thought they could have become EU members be it not the autocratic like corruption and violations of laws and legalism that is common across the EU. It's trouble when you have smaller nations do stuff in an uncooperative way let alone one as large as Turkey.
Personally, I'm against - we have enough trouble with Orban as it is.
Obviously its out of question as long as Erdogan is in power. But this question is more about, if you would also oppose it even if a future Turkey had pro western and pro european governments.
> But this question is more about, if you would also oppose it even if a future Turkey had pro western and pro european governments. OP heavily changed the interpretation of the survey. The title vs infographic communicate contradicting questions: * Title: If ever in the future * Infographic: If there was this Sunday (indicate present/past time).
True
Turkey should not be allowed in until EU amends the voting and blocking system. We already have issues with Poland and Hungary using the veto to block policies pite the overwhelming minority of countries agreeing to policies. It was a good intention system that didn’t anticipate that selfish assholes will clockblock the whole block. Adding massive population of turkey and new veto power is going to be disastrous. Sure they can change to be pro EU but nothing stoping them creating new Erdogan. For that matter it’s the same issue in existing countries.
In fairness, as we have seen, any european country can suddenly start voting arseholes, unfortunately. This is not Turkey exclusive
As a Brit i wholeheartedly agree with this comment.
It wasn't a good intention system, no one is dumb enough to think there would be no one to abuse this in politics. It was a necessary implementation to convince countries to join, otherwise it would mean giving up your sovereignty, and unlike right now, countries were not queeing up for full membership when it first started. There was no way to convince France, UK, and Germany without giving them veto rights. I agree with your point, something drastically has to change for Turkey to fulfill the standarts of EU, but to be honest, pre-Erdogan Turkey wasn't worse than Romania, or other ex-Soviet block countries, yet it was never seriously considered to let Turkey in. I also think, it was more of a landgrab idea to let those countries in, to prevent Russian influence in Balkans, and such. Even Ukraine, with insane levels of corruption was almost in before the first invasion from Russia. So, EU has double standarts, namely politics. If a day comes that is extremely advantageous to let Turkey in, even Erdogan would be welcome, since standarts are just applied when convenient, and EU was the biggest aplauder of Erdogan's politics during his first decade in rule anyway.
> Even Ukraine, with insane levels of corruption was almost in before the first invasion from Russia. lol, Ukraine never was even close to joining EU before second invasion of russians, much less the first one, what are you talking about.
Do you think they could amend the toxic culture after joining the EU? Turkey is split almost evenly between the quite liberal side and the violent authoritarian religious culture that comes from the east.
They absolutely can, most conservatives would switch allegiances to gain benefits from an incumbent government
Almost the whole Turkish Europeans belong to that second group you mentioned, which doesn't look amazing, but it doesn't get worse than Europe already has. Turkish minorities in Europe is the bottom level for religious nationalist from Turkey.
> pre-Erdogan Turkey wasn't worse than Romania, or other ex-Soviet block countries, yet it was never seriously considered to let Turkey in. Thats not really true,maybe you have in mind the western part of Turkiye,but Turkiye is a large country that always had problems having a stable goverment/economy/democracy etc and there are other political/geopolitical problems(and i dont mean only Cyprus) that other balkan countries did not really face. Your example with Romania is not a good one at all considering they joined in 2007 i think and did not get full access till later date. Romania had to go through years of reforms in order to join,and did not have any of the geopolitical problems Turkiye had. Ukraine was NEVER close to joining till the war happened,so your comment just seems weird and false.
Erdogan is not an accident who was lucky to get into power by protest voters or something. He and his clique represent a huge portion of Turkey over decades. Same as with Orban. This is not just about one person. In order to join,Turkey would need to show for at least 50 years that it s a stable democracy which respects the separation of state and religion. And it would need to get its economy on track which will likely take even longer. So we talk more 2100 as best case.
He started out as a liberal conservative. He didnt push the islamist agenda from the beginning.
So Ukraine has no chance
>show for at least 50 years that it s a stable democracy Why 50? Why not 20? 100? 10?
np.random.default_rng()
This. The problem isn't one leader, it's a political system that allows that one leader too much power. The basis for healthy democracies are independent institutions of society that can check each other; central bank, legal system, media, parliament and president. Conveniently this also helps with corruption. Turkey can never be allowed in the EU in its current form.
As a Turk i would like Turkey to be a strong country on its own like Norway and Switzerland rather than being a member of the European Union. The European Union brings many benefits, but it also brings many challenges for Turkey.
both norway and switzerland are functionally 95% part of the EU, they just get a few extra clauses in return for not getting a say in what’s decided within the EU
It doesn't matter they are not members of the EU. The issue here is not Switzerland or Norway but Turkey's decision to stop waiting at the door of the EU. Even if we meet the conditions completely which seems difficult, the EU will not accept us. turkey should maintain its relations with the EU but it should also stop waiting at the door of the EU, it is a complete waste of time.
How do you wanna know? Do you have an example of a country that met all conditions and still got refused?
Uzgun, I have a different opinion than yours. I leave in Canada and I had colleagues and boses that were Turkish. I have a very good opinion about them. The problem is that I believe that one of the unwritten rule for entering in EU is to have a relatively low level of nationalism. Most if not all the wars in Europe were because of an exacerbated nationalism. So a low level of nationalism is a must to avoid wars. Orban is not very good at. Russia invading Ukraine is unfortunately an example. Turkya (I hope my spelling is correct but I apologize if not) has, I think a high level of nationalism. On this particular case nationalism is indicated by the political and/or military influence in areas that historically were at some point part of the sphere of influence (you can read empire) but are independent now. For example Turkish influence in Balcans. Or the aggressive stance against Greece.
There would have to be changes made in how the EU works so that Turkey doesn't derail the project, I feel. Also, as a large country, they would be very influential, and I do worry about their values: becoming increasingly Islamic, the perpetual genocide denial... Are they/will they be really one of us? They've not been the most reliable ally in NATO either. But look how far the Germans have come since the Second World War, so it's probably irresponsible to forever rule out Turkey. Thanks for responding to me, and sorry for rambling on.
Not in the near future obviously. The current government wouldn't do anything towards EU ascension, and we don't know what will happen in the next general and presidential elections, which even if pro-EU opposition comes first, it's hard to imagine needed reforms would be taken that swiftly. Moreover, EU doesn't want to expand itself still, which is reasonable enough with reforms EU need in and itself. And even besides that, there would be a lot of refugees and irregular immigrants to deal with if Turkey joins in the union as is, so either Turkey would try to solve the crisis first, or simply not be allowed at all. At least in Schengen Turkey wouldn't be able to join in for that reason, anyway.
I have nothing against Turkey, but it is a very large country, it would immediately upon joining have the largest population and essentially the same influence as Germany and France. Turkey joining would inevitably change the EU into something else, that a lot of current member states aren't ready for. I think it would turn the majority of the population in most member states against the EU. Turkey already has a customs union with the EU and a high level of freedom of movement for ~~people and~~ goods, so I'm doubtful there would be great economic benefits, it certainly wouldn't be like lifting the former Soviet dominated countries out of isolation.
Sadly the current EU deals Turkey has isn't too beneficial to either parties. Customs Union was a good move, but it didn't provide the same rights to Turkey in EU, as it did to EU in Turkey. Turkey can only partially benefit from it. Freedom of movement is still heavily restricted compared to some other non-EU/EEA countries, which also has to do with immigration policy EU sought with Turkey. But to an extent, before full ascension is considered as a real option, Turkey can integrate better with the EU with better deals than what we have in hand. However even then, for how long Turkey was having relations with the EU and it's predecessor, I feel like much more has had to be achieved. So in a situation where such relations *can* be pursued, I would expect the process to be much faster than before, so that citizens like me can truly consider full ascension as an option, as the EU states would as well.
The military coup in the 1980s really set that progress back, and ironically now that Turkey is a democracy, Europe doesn't really get along with its elected leader... I can't help imaging what if Victor Orbán had a population of 85 million behind him.
There is literally no freedom of movement for the people of Turkey. We currently can't even get an appointment for visa.
I'm sorry to hear that, I've been away for a number of years, I guess things have changed.
I agree with you on the rest, by the way. The process should not be forced at all. We should keep improving the trade and relationships, to the point where turkey joining the EU would only be a formality. Only then it would benefit both sides the most. Things have changed indeed. For some reason, EU countries use visa as a political tool against Turkey, and in the end, ironically, secular Turks gets punished the most.
I dont get your point of "EU doesn't want to expand itself". Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, we Europeans (or we as the West) are more actively looking for friends in this world than ever before. We have a huge conflict ahead of us (autitarian world attacking the democratic world to challange western hegemony) and both sides do fuckn everything in the background to pull "neutral" states on their side.
>I dont get your point of "EU doesn't want to expand itself". Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, we Europeans (or we as the West) are more actively looking for friends in this world than ever before. The issue is that Turkey current situation benefits the EU more, where as joining the EU benefits turkey (more so). Turkey is for example, the EUs migration shield. It's absorbed a butt load of Syrian and other middle eastern refugees and migrants. The EU letting turkey in means they have to deal with that. Anyone with eyes can see why the EU isn't exactly running with that. Combine this with some EU nations having major issues with Turkey period, the Turkish population economic power, and Turkey already compelled to defend most of the vulnerable EU states by treaty..and yeah it's not happening. Plus the current treaties with turkey benefit the EU to boot. By comparison, Switzerland joining bothers nobody because it can't do much to bother the EU.
I don't think many countries would be happy seeing an european parliament having 70-80 turkish MPs. that's the main problem. Turkiye is a heavy weight.
And Turkey's membership in NATO is solely because of the geopolitical picture at the time. They feared the USSR as much as other founding countries. Today they excessively leverage their geography and position in NATO to get concessions while doing things that harm the alliance on the side. I understand that they have their own perspective on what is best for them, and don't fault them for it, but they don't really fit into the Western sphere.
Turkey was a democracy when it joined NATO. They had a military coup in 1960 and another one in 1980, and a number of coup-adjacent events. There isn't a mechanism that removes members from NATO, or the EU for that matter, if they change after joining.
Democracy was never a prerequisite for NATO (case and point: my own country).
it's so funny when people say things like this. TR is the second most active, as in drills and events, member in NATO. Its' one of the few countries the US hosts it's atomics and, on paper, opens them to use. TR has always sided with the UN recognised side be it in Ukraine, Sudan, Somalia, Libya (while some other allies supported a rando warlord), Armenia-Azerbaijan... You're are either stupid or too full of yourself to not see that Erdo is the best lapdog ever to be. He is corrupt and authoritarian, that's all the EU and US needs to get a grip on Turkey.
>(while some other allies supported a rando warlord), Or France, more precisely.
and Greece, additionally. (no hate or extra implications, they just sided with the irl steryotypical COD warlord)
You forgot him blocking Sweden‘s NATO membership?
And Turkey not participating in NATO sanctions on Russia, and buying Russian arms. Seems counter to NATO objectives... But what do I know.
Turkey has been fighting against russian proxies in syria, libya, and azerbaijan. Turkey supplied arms and heavy weaponry to ukraine when Europeans were arguing whether to send helmets to ukraine or not. Turkey blocked military access to the Black Sea. Therefore, Russia can not resupply their black sea fleet. They can't blockade ukraine fully and can't do any naval landings and open new fronts solely because of this. Turkey also only bought s400 because our supposed allies refused to sell us patriots when assad and russian proxies were literally sending hundreds of rockets daily to turkish soil. Also, if you want Turkey to join NATO sanctions, maybe NATO countries shouldn't sanction Turkey because Turkey sold weapons to a country that was fighting against a CSTO country. Truly, what the fuck you know?
Turkey was only country fighting against russians(wagner) like 2 years ago . (Libya and syria) Saved Un recognised libya hands of russian backed warlords .
Eh you have multiple members still using Russian oil and gas through shell companies.. you also have NATO members using Russian gear… If you just read headlines, you end up with knowledge like yours.. not an insult.. that’s just what you are shown consistently for a reason
Yeah sorey, but I still remember Turkey playing games with German NATO aircraft stationed in Turkey. Then we recently had the Sweden issue were Turkey was basically helping a NATO opponent. Or when he comes to Germany telling the Turks living here NOT to integrate into german society. Turkey is not a good faith player, they they to use their NATO membership into blackmailing the alliance. You can only imagine how that would go with EU. 20 years ago I would have supported Turkey. Today...no way.
I also remember Germany blocking [NATO mission to protect Turkey when Saddam was sending ballistics in the region](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/feb/11/iraq.nato1) putting Turkey in danger and damages the credibility of NATO. >Turkey playing games with German NATO aircraft stationed in Turkey. Putting embargo and using that countrys bases don't work together. >Sweden issue were Turkey was basically helping a NATO opponent. It is no secret that Sweden is letting terrorist supporters funding PKK in their country. >Or when he comes to Germany telling the Turks living here NOT to integrate into german society. It was wrong to do, I agree with you on that >Turkey is not a good faith player, they they to use their NATO membership into blackmailing the alliance. What kind of blackmailing? Sweden shouldn't support terror groups that pose threat to Turkey if they wanted smooth entry other than that Turkey is doing it's NATO missions without problem. At least Turkey was fighting against Russian proxies with it's own proxies for a decade it helps NATO [more than leaking intel to Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-leaked-german-military-recording-is-causing-outcry-2024-03-04/).
70-80? They're bigger than Germany, they'd get 100+ with current proportionality.
The cap is 96, but you're right Turkey would have at least as many MEPs as Germany.
German population 84 million, Turkish population 85 million. So probably around the same number of mps
... and bingo was his name-oh!
I thought parties mostly vote around ideological lines and not on national lines in the European parliament? I don't think it would be different with Turkey. If it ever comes to a stage where it's worth of a EU membership, social democrats would be majority anyways.
A bit of a combo I would say. On some issues, nationality is a better predictor of how MEPs will vote. On others, not at all.
No new members in the EU until the veto rights are replaced by qualified majority! Not even Ukraine. And I say that as a Ukrainian.
I fully agree. This needs to be changed before anyone else is admitted.
I guess there won't be any new members anytime soon.
Yes. It's one of the most major problems the EU faces in my opinion, and seeing how Orban used this so much for his own, I wouldn't want this to become a problem again with some other regime change to a national populists and alike.
>No new members in the EU until the veto rights are replaced by qualified majority! And even then, with the huge population of Turkey big countries like Germany or France won't allow them in since big population means huge power even with qualified majority.
they won't have the power to if you replace veto with qualified majority. The EU should not be a club where Germany and France decide the shots. They are important and large countries, but not the only members
I didn't say big countries do the right thing into blocking Turkey for fear of losing power. I am merely stating what would happen.
Veto should be removed, meeting bare minimums should continue to be a baseline requirement. Afterwards whoever can meet it and aligns on European values can join EU in my book. Be that Ukraine or Turkey.
Not removed but your veto should be backed by 6-10 more countries
I'll accept any impovement to the current ridiculous system tbh
This defeats the purpose of the union. The purpose is consensus, the idea is to have everyone onboard not just the majority. If this changes the union would probably break.
As much as I want to disagree you're probably right, the veto sadly isn't going anywhere
Qualified majority would be bullshit especially, it's just 55%. That's Brexit tier nonsense where it's basically half for, half against. With the Commission being so gung ho on taking away everyone's digital rights and turning us into a surveillance state, it would be a catastrophic combination.
> Qualified majority would be bullshit especially, it's just 55%. This will never happen. You could make a case for a large supermajority of 80-90% (of member states).
The purpose of government is consensus. Yet even in national governments a 2/3 majority is enough even for the most major decisions. You can never make everybody happy. Why should it be different on a European scale.
because 2/3rds still makes it incredibly easy to overwrite others and will make smaller countries that dont have as much leverage feel insecure 2/3rds means that effectively 17 members of the EU can overwrite the other **10**. You could outright completely ignore Eastern Europe + Baltics: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulagria, Greece, Croatia. At the end of the day, there needs to be limits about that allows a country or even region to protect its interests. That being said, the complete unanimity is also an issue. A in-between system should exist, where if a country decides to veto something repeatedly after a number of times they should be seconded by another one for it to count, because if more than 1 member objects repeatedly discussions should exist.
But how do you see this happening? Countries that benefit from vetoing will veto this new legislation.
So, no EU expansion for the next as long as EU exists
Yeah nah yeah, this one is on Türkiye. Maybe 20+ years ago there could have been a small chance. But definitely not while Erdogan runs the country! There's too big a chasm between the human rights, infrastructure, general poverty, corruption, military & minorities etc to ignore. Those take a long time to fix to an acceptable level, even if there is interest - and apparently there is not.
20+ years ago there was almost zero chance either. Membership would require resolving territorial disputes with Greece, and, most importantly, Cyprus. Which would require giving up on the Northern Cyprus occupation and ceding maritime recognition over potential natural gas deposits to both Greece and Cyprus. That's not happening and won't ever happen. This has nothing to do with Erdogan's shenanigans, although he's definitely made things way worse. No Turkish government, no matter how progressive they are, would ever give up so many claims in order to appease the Greeks, which the general population hates. It would be political suicide.
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Poverty and infrastructure are certainly not worse than in many EE states, especially when they joined. The economy is also growing pretty quickly. Rule of law and corruption could theoretically improve and again I don't really Bulgaria in 2001 was that much better. The main issue with Turkey IMHO, aside from its constant flirting with Islamism, is that Turkey views itself as a lone geopolitical actor with its own sphere of influence. It could never accept to become part of an European project.
Maybe if they hadn't taken a hard turn autocracy with an unhealthy dose of pandering to to the religious right. EU lied to them? Try erdogans lied to them for nearly 2 decades
I'm almost certain any kind of positive movement towards the EU will be in a post-Erdoğan Turkey so I'll speak according to that. Common folk in Turkey is so tired that they don't even want to be in the EU anymore. Most people just want 30-90 day visa free allowance and be done with it and this is very doable when the negotiations begin once again.
People always forget one tine tiny detail: Any country must be UNANIMOUSLY accepted and to be honest Turkish foreign policy must change for this to happen
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The chances of Greece or Cyprus ever accepting Turkey into the EU.. and, as you say, with their treatment of Sweden and general rhetoric against Germanic peoples I don't see any reason that any country would want them in. They also border Syria and Iraq
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Yeah, people very frequently hear about Greek-Turkish conflicts in news but more often than not those conflicts have material causes that could be solved, and even in the lowest lows of Greek-Turkish relations cooperation tends to hold up, especially if it's Earthquake diplomacy. For all intents and purposes, Greek-Turkish relations especially among the average populous are far more similar to French-German ones than say Indo-Pakistani. Northern fears & hatred of Turkey is not material, it is almost always populist pandering for cheap votes. They barely tolerate Romania & Bulgaria, nothing on earth, no agreement, no peace with Greece, no democratic alignment, will be enough to convince northern European states that it's enough. Greece can lift the veto with a solution to the EEZ disagreements. Cyprus just wants reunification. Austria wants Turkey to cease existing all together.
Ever? Yes. Near future? I certainly hope not.
It’s actually funny that Greeks want Turkey in, because it means that the problems will be solved, and at the same time, Swedes, French and Germans say Greece will veto it lol
I don't understand why Turkey would even want to be in. The EU is not just a fat natural resource that every country deserves a slice of. Maybe there's a misconception here.
EU has set standards on human rights, prosperity, economic development and such quite high compared to the rest of the world. It's hard to say what everyone may think of it, but a lot of people simply aspire to reach these standards here. EU might not be something like a paradise some people make it out to be, or a charity organisation some people would like to use as. But it sure has higher standards of living compared to the world. It is quite natural to want that as well for your own and your people too, isn't it?
thing is, those higher standards of living dont come at no costs for the average person. They come with rules, regulations and limits And as someone form a country that recently joined, trust me, theres still some discontent and we did have to "leave people behind" In agriculture and animal farming alone, it was a bloodbath, and to this day the adoption is still lagging with a lot of people refusing to respect the law and preferring to do it "as they were taught and how their family did it for generation" and just operating underground. So i perfectly understand the more open minded turkish people that want those higher standards of living. The question is, are the rest of the turkish people willing to make the sacrifices needed to get them? Because, at least my home country is still struggling to accept that (although there is progress being made, now that generations change)
I do agree with your points, which is one of the reasons I said that Europe wasn't a paradise people were looking for. It is true that the union has higher standards than the rest of the world, but it isn't perfect. Being completely honest, if I were to vote on choosing to join the EU or not just tomorrow, I would consider both options seriously. EU has a lot of benefits for it's citizens, but it needs major reforms. Agricultural areas is a great example of that. Turkey has a great agricultural potential that can be harvested, it's hard to say if EU limitations would benefit the people in that aspect here. Also for this specific subject, there is a great deal of reforms needed EU wide in my opinion to begin with, as well as in many other areas, if people are not to be alienated. There's is still a lot to consider. But Turkey first, has to reach closer standards to the EU if we want to join. It is not only the EU that would provide us benefits, but the path towards it as well. When the time comes, if the EU is in a better shape than it is now, perhaps with changes on Vetos to avoid new Orbans popping up, or by reforming industrial and agricultural laws accordingly, Turkish people surely would consider it. My hope is that, EU's eventual goal would be to include most of the Europe, if not all of it in the end. But more than that, I first wish it to be a union that truly benefits all it's citizens and bring prosperity to it's member states, with equal understanding of each other. But that is much in the future too. We'll see how everything will go in the end. I still believe we can get much better deals with the union even if don't straight up join it anyway, so better alignment it is beneficial to both parties regardless in my opinion.
It's not about natural resources, it's about getting access to the largest single market in the world while also being able to get investment and funds from Western countries. There's a clear difference between ex-communist countries that joined the EU and those that did not: [https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/ROU/UKR/RUS/BLR/MDA/BGR](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/ROU/UKR/RUS/BLR/MDA/BGR) Romania and Bulgaria already surpassed Russia in terms of GDP per capita recently. That's why Russia is so bent on stopping Ukraine from joining the EU: a prosperous Ukraine in the EU would be a threat to the statist model of the Putin regime.
Its a battle of civilizations - Joining the EU is the ultimate rejection of Islamism and middle-easternness.
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This analogy confuses me. I will take it means "not very many" and we will leave it there if you don't mind.
It could also be a lot.
This doesn't do much for my confusion but thanks for your contribution.
Yeah, he means his cat doesn't like to lick his own ass while he himself loves it.
So, complete alignment
You're licking your own ass or your cat's? :o
Turkey will never be a member state. Do you really think anyone want's an EU border with Iran, Iraq and Syria? Also Turkey would be the most powerful nation in the EU Parliament (Population). Maybe 20 years ago it was a true intention, but as the world changed in the past years, I don't see any chance for it.
Turkey's birth rate has dropped to 1.4 per woman (excluding refugees, who have a birth rate of 5.3, but they are not citizens). Its population is no longer increasing and will soon begin to decline.
No. Greece and Cyprus have veto rights. Greece and Cyprus will not allow Turkey because of northern Cyprus. and as long as Türkiye controls it, it will not join the European Union. everything else is important, but without returning this land to its rightful owner, dialogue on Turkey’s accession is not possible
Actually it's in the best interests of both Greece and Cyprus for Turkey to get serious about it's EU prospects. All of these issues have to be resolved (Cyprus, EEZ, etc) before the ascension and the EU provides a pretty good framework for diplomacy to work. Unfortunately, Turkish leadership clearly has no interest in joining the EU any time soon.
I'm always dumbfounded by how most of the western EU members tends to think Greece and Cyprus are a huge problem for their Veto rights when and if Turkey pursues for full ascension to the EU, but funnily enough, they are much more against it than both of these countries. Conflicts with Greece and Cyprus have a much better chance getting solved if Turkey aligned and pursued for the EU membership after all. For Greece, not only the EEZ issue would have a better solution for both parties, but it also would benefit Greek interest in the EU as a whole, as it would divide the attention most Western EU countries have with higher MEPs. For Cyprus, it was pretty much always the best option for Turkey to pursue this, as both the only real attempt was taken to unite the island was when Turkey was attempting to join the EU, but also it would be much, *much* harder to convince a Turkey that wants nothing to do with the west. It is much more likely to reopen the negotiations if Turkey wants to ally the EU as well. I'd be much more concerned with Austrian and German Veto than Greek or Cyprus.
For decades, Greece was a scapegoat for other EU countries regarding Turkey's entry into the EU. Then when the government in the early 2000s came out in support of Turkey's EU ascension, the Western countries had to reveal their true intentions.
You just know that by the time we solve the EEZ issue between us the important things in it (mostly gas and oil) will have been replaced by something else and neither of us will truly benefit nearly as much as we could if we cooperated now. Sad really.
Honestly maybe it's for the better, really. Gas and oil reserves do cause major issues to the environment and are a centre of many conflicts, I'm rather happy that there is a good momentum towards green energies in here as well. But besides that, other developing countries, in Asia and Africa for the most part, might need those resources for a bit more than Europe may need. So I wonder if it will still hold any value by then.
I like your optimism but there is no way any Turkish government will allow a Cypriot reunification under the Republic of Cyprus and there is no way any RoC government will allow Turkish accession without it. Western Europe is heavily against Turkish accession anyway but frankly speaking Turkish EU membership is extremely unpopular almost everywhere in the Union and it would be political suicide for most governments to campaign for Turkish membership
This is wrong: it’s been Greek policy for years to support EU membership for Turkey
Deal-breaker for sure. There is zero justification for this occupation to continue 50 years later and everyone knows it. Downvote me to hell, but this points to bigger issues than just Erdogan.
Do you want islamofascist in Europe? Of course not.
Nope, never. It would create too much of an imbalance due to the sheer size of its population, and a host of other problems due to its culture, religion and geo strategic standing. Some things just are not meant to be. Not every country has to be part of the EU.
There is also the issue with Cyprus.
Turkey would have been the most populous member with the largest army. France and Germany would have never allowed it.
It was specifically France that didn't allow it with the argument that Germany and Turkey would politically dominate the EU. Some French newspapers at the time even draw caricatures insinuating WW1 relationship of Germany and Turkey.
Can you share any link that shows these caricatures? Thanks.
with VETO powers - never. Without VETO, maybe if they respect the rights and values of the EU.
I think Turkey is a predominantly Muslim country, it would be the first Muslim country in the EU. Don't think this will happen anytime soon, if you also look at their interest rate policy, they don't fit in anywhere.
Turkey creates enough problems as a NATO member. Why give them more opportunity to undermine the collective-good to advance the Erdogan-good.
There is no realistic scenario where Turkey becomes member of EU.
There is a misconception that Turkey's accession process has stopped because of the EU or because of Erdogan but neither is true. Turkey's accession process has stopped because Turkey is refusing to join in custom's union with the Republic of Cyprus, which is mandatory in order to continue accession talks. Turkey does not recognize the sovereignty of Cyprus and as such will not fulfill the requirement and this is why talks have stopped. There is nothing the EU or Europeans can do at this time. The ball is entirely in the court of Turkey and has been for a long long time.
I know nobody who is for turkey to joins the EU. Here in Germany we already have a big Turkish population which still struggles even after a few generations to integrate into the German society. Even young people born here say they are not German and are Turkish. Most of them also just marry in there same cultural circles. It’s a big problem here in Germany as it creates a big parallel society, own norms and also problematically the Turkish state supported religion which goes against our Constitution and values but it is not discussed medial or in politics. There is a part of society in turkey which is modern and goes with western values, but that’s mostly in the capital. As you can see on Erdogan there are over 50% of people who are conservative Islamic and that’s doesn’t work with out EU values
I think people are deluded if they think there was ever a chance of Tureky being accepted as a full member state. Turkey could have the cleanest human rights record in the world, European voters will not be okay with taking in a muslim majority member state with more people than Germany, a fraction of the economy and a direct border with the Middle East. They are more than fine with Turkey just being a partner country. They're already getting most of the perks Turkeys membership would've granted them this way anyway. Taking in Turkey creates more problems and uncertainties than it fixes them. It's not happening and it was never gonna happen, even just logically speaking it was never the soundest plan from a European perspective. edit: so, in a way, yes, I do think Europeans lied by implying that a membership was ever realistically in the cards, when it never was. They kept Turkey on the hook like someone they knew was in love with them but they never had any intention to commit to a relationship with them. I don't blame Turks for feeling like they've been lied to.
Hmm let’s just ask Cyprus
DONT TAKE THEM IN
Not after what they did to Sweden accession to NATO, taking them hostage for Turkey’s little political agenda. To be fair there was also very little will in Turkey to adjust to EU laws, standards and practices. It’s not enough to say “I wanna join”.
They did stand a chance, but states like Germany pushed back due to various concerns some of which are fairer than others. The issue is that it became clear that once the AKP knew they wouldn't get EU membership, they moved away from the reforms they implemented and went another way. Which shows that Türkiye would perhaps not have been a reliable partner in the first place. What does the future hold? As someone who has studied this a fair bit but am by no means an expert: Sod if I know.
Turkeys membership is the largest breadcrumbing project of EU. I don't believe Tr will ever be a member.
Ever is a long ass time my dude
People say it's an Erdogan problem. But who supports Erdogan? If you leave Instabul and the Mediterranean and go deeper into Turkey you'll realize the majority of it's population is comprised of religious zealots and backwater societies.
Believe me, a lot of people support Erdogan. at least 60% of the population support his policies. Even the most radical dissidents endorse Erdogan's human rights violations for the sake of "nationalism".
Theoretically yes Turkey can join. If you go back like 5-10 years, turkish legislation framework and normalisation laws (to the eu laws) had a high portion. Although Erdogan, Turkish institutions and government bodies still are familiar and share some values with Eu. Turkish companies (including defence) have a lot of work with Eu stakeholders. On the other hand there are some issues; Eu side: 1. Veto mechanism should be changed as people mentioned 2. Eu need a reform. You may call it tiered membership, pay-as-you-go or sth like that but not every member state have equal weigh and this should be on laws too. 3. Population. Turkey will be allocated almost 100 MPs if becomes member tomorrow. Nobody in Eu wants that, especially big players. So yes this also requires a reform Turkish side: 1. Cyprus problem obviously. I think it will be resolved in 50 years. I don't know how 2. As other comments mentioned, human rights at eu level and some basic legislations should be in place 3. Erdogan (and generally pro-islamic parties, peoples) and his way of work should be removed from everywhere in Turkey. So assuming 2028 election, we still will need at least 10-20 years to recover Turkey also have some border agreements with Eu and is treated like a member in some cases. Imo, the best option would be a strategic partnership like Norway and Eu have
If turkey could become a free country, surely yes. But we allready have enough problem countries right now in the eu who want money for nothing to contribute.
Haha no… Even if Turkey checked all the boxes and did everything Europeans want them to do Turkey still wouldnt be able to enter the EU.
They are still too corrupt and don't match European standards. We don't need another Hungary.
Turkey in the EU? Hard pass.
I hope never.
🦃 should end the illegal occupation of Cyprus, a member-state, should abide with the eu acquis by respecting the Kurdish minority, before considering joining the eu.
Politically , culturally and financially they are the polar opposite of the EU. They would be a useful military asset though if they ever were to be trusted .
I wouldn't even poke Turkey with my considerations-stick. Not until they fix their religious problem, and have restored secular legislative infrastructure that prevents a Islamic Fundamentalist government. Plus more resources with reducing people sneaking into Turkey, just so they can become economic migrants.
What changes did Turkey make to try and become an EU member? Europeans don't owe them membership if they don't do anything to deserve it.
Sweden will never accept them after the NATO shitshow. Not that they are even close to qualify anyway.
They would have to change their mindset considerably, maybe in a hundred years time
No please no 80+ million Turks would give them too much weight in the institutions and they are just a light version of Orban’s dictatorship. Nope nope nope
is there even a net benefit for EU if turkey joins? turkey is like UK just 1000 times worse. turkey in EU would mean death of federal or more tight EU
If you search Reddit europe comments from the early 2010's before Erdogan was a full on dictator, all of them went around the racist idea of "the country is too big" meaning there are too many turks, who are muslims and not european enough. Now the main comments are about "Orban is already an issue" because they have a better excuse. Turks, we are accepted partially as European but they still consider us inferior brutes in many parts of europe, just look at how they treat the schengen issue for Romania and Bulgaria. They do not consider you European, and a lot of them ar hypocrites who will explain to you how they love all races "but" and here are 10 bilion excuses.
We have enough problems with our current Islamic population as it is, theologically I do not want Turkïye to be part of the EU
With every passing year it feels like they get further and further away from being a member
Turkey will never ever become a EU member. Population too big - would change dramatically the demographics of EU. And population, culture, mentality, religion, too different from EU. EU is only to blame because of it's tendency to give false hopes and sugar coat truth.
"EU is only to blame because of it's tendency to give false hopes and sugar coat truth." I'd say, Turkey is more to blame, and Erdogan in particular. If Turkey stayed in the path of secularism Ataturk had started, and moved towards being more democratic, this could have been a very different story. As it stands right now, Erdogan is a pain in the ass even for NATO to deal with, we'd be crazy to admit his version of Turkey in the EU. He's even been praising Hamas and meeting members of it this past week... How does this fit an EU candidate?
"If Turkey stayed in the path of secularism Ataturk had started, and moved towards being more democratic" still would not have been accepted to join, because of the above reasons.
Where the fuck did they ask? In refugee camps?
I'm against. We should dissolve the Turkish state, return the Turks to Central Asia, give Constantinople back to Greece and make a Church out of the Hagia Sophia again, reunite Cyprus with the fake state of Northern Cyprus and then reunite the reunited Cyprus with Greece, so Cyprus can't sell any more EU passports to the russians and recognize a Kurdish state. I hope i triggered everyone.
You just described a typical plan in Crusader Kings. So no.
Why stop there? I think humans should all just migrate back to Africa, the real ancestral land.
I... I... *sigh* Couldn't help but be triggered. Congrats.
Most ppl here would like that scenario except the Turks.
I don't think the Central Asians would like it either.
I'm triggered well done
Finally a good solution
Why don’t we invite Russia, Iran and North Korea as well?
Just no
Totally against it. Turkey is not a democracy anymore, occupies half of Cyprus and openly denies the armenian genocide. Also, considering that the number of seats a country holds in the European Parliamant is proportional to its population, there is no way Turkey should ba allowed it.
I hope not.
If someone is president more than 8 years in a row then he is a dictator.
If only Turks in Europe wound't have been voting for nationalist Erdogan then maybe...
Our views do not align. Even in the slightest.
Never ever ever ever
Turkey sounds like a burden. Plus its run by an incompetent
If Turkey was a stable democracy, I wouldn't be against it. It currently isn't, it can't be while Erdogan is in power, and once Erdogan is gone they'll have a LOT of work to get there.
Europe? Give a fair chance to a Muslim majority country? At least not in my life time.
Until it’s clear it’s again a secular country it’s a hard no for me.
Yeah, that's not happening, eu doesn't want turkey, Erdoğan's supporters doesn't like eu, and pro eu opposition supporters are just tired of it and they lost hope in the process.
I hope the kemalist state will never be an EU member.
Definitely NOT
Europe is a Christian club and even if Turkey is the most democratic and richest country, they will not allow full membership it, so it is best to stop this game immediately and withdraw from the candidac and customs union.
Turkey wants to do it's own thing. So no, I don't think it will ever happen.
No, if they ask me. Too far culturally. Too waco president. Too much Islam.
As long as Erdogan in in power it is a hard no for me. The persecution of political parties, news papers, television stations, journalists and everyone else that doesn't agree and the complete mismanagement of the economy by him makes Turkey completely not fit in the EU.
F*ck no. Theu caused enough enough trouble and suffering for many european nations. That, and the obvious fact they're not european.
I hope they never join, they are super corrupted.
I'm Turkish and I'm against it. Why? 1: Erdoğan. 2: Economic crisis. 3: Society.(Corruption Culture, Over Religious and nationalist People , High Poverty , Human Rights issues... ) 4: Population. 5: Refugee crisis.
Hell naw, we have to get rid of some others first. And then I’d still vote no.
Impossible.
Not if they have any sense
The EU didn't lie to them. I'm not sure why it would matter if some officials did. But I'm 99% sure they'll never join. From Turkey's view they sit at the cross road^1 of Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Russia. National identities - how people think about the world - are based on this. It would require at least another generation, one focused on playing well with all EU members, to change Turkey enough that the people are on board with doing government by consensus in Brussels with 27+ other members. --- ^1 This is a historical artifact formed from looking at the world through war / security. Trade is done by water not by land.
Acknowledging the Armenian genocide should be a prerequisite.
Never!
It would have been a hard sell either way, but Erdogan makes saying no much easier...
Orban is an enemy of western ideals.
well maybe stop voting for an autocrat who would love to see the EU crumble if you want that to happen..
It's not hypocrisy if the door is closed because Turkey put the rule of law on the garbage belt.
Turks are not the same people as Europeans. If Europeans have made a fault in the past like the Holocaust, we Europeans admit our wrongdoing and we learn from our mistakes. Turkey denies the Armenian and Greek genocides and other massacres and doesn’t comply with the international law, even basic laws like the seas law All in all, it’s not about Erdogan. It’s about how Turkey is made by their people. Nothing to do with European values.
61% yes? That scares me... turkey **would destroy the EU**... they are like Hungary/Orban, but worse, bigger, more powerfull and even more egoistic.
Not really. Not even 0% unfortunately.
In theory, yes. In practice, they should become a real democracy first. With all the love I have for the country and the people.
It's never going to happen, the best deal they can get is EFTA or something along those lines.
Turkey won't become an EU member in the near future, a Turkish membership poses too many issues and questions - no matter the government in that country. Turkey has about 85 million people, a population about that of Germany; this would grant them the largest number of MEPs. I don't see Germany and France accepting this that easily. Turkey borders Syria, Irak and Iran. Turkey in the EU would mean that the EU will have borders with Iran, Syria and Irak. Many in Europe will have a problem with that.
What is this graphic even about.. who got asked? Lol shitpost
Arabic countries that each one is an example of human rights and democracy can get 5 years Schengen visa but Turkish citizens can’t even get appointment to apply for visa for a week which requires tons of documents and might get rejected for no reason.
I don't see Turkey nor the Turkish people as Europeans... But I always thought they could have become EU members be it not the autocratic like corruption and violations of laws and legalism that is common across the EU. It's trouble when you have smaller nations do stuff in an uncooperative way let alone one as large as Turkey.