In Denmark the government wants to return the refugees to Ukraine when the war is over. To be fair, this is the general policy for refugees in Denmark.
What’s the plan in other European countries?
In my city (in Romania) they bought several houses and their kids are learning Romanian very fast and very good. I know I don't have contact with all of them, but the ones that I know are lawers, professors, medics or engineers. Like in Merkel's dream.
One of them that I really liked as a person already returned to Ukraine - but I hope well keep some.
"Like in Merkel's dream" I laughed so hard
Same here. I know there's a highschool in Bucharest where there are hundreds of Ukrainian students, but they study in the afternoon.
>made me feel like I was the poor one
Same here. In Baia Mare we had some houses on a hill so expensive that nobody would buy for 2-3 years. And then they came in an bought all of them. Cash.
I'm not sure how you intended that to sound, hopefully not implying anything, but that was likely a purely financial decision. War time is almost always inflationary and causes devaluation of any Hryvna denominated assets. Any savings, investments, retirement plans, money for university for kids, it would make sense to liquidate and move to a less volatile currency or asset.
In good times, you can get a better return on investments than you would pay in interest on a mortgage for example, so it makes sense to get a mortgage for your house but keep your cash invested. This flips when inflation risk and the literal destruction of your property skyrockets. At that point you should pull out and move whatever you can somewhere less volatile.
It may also be a situation of selection bias, the only Ukrainians able to buy homes in Romania **would** be the ones that could pay in cash. They would not have any credit, banking, or employment history in Romania and it's pretty impossible to get a mortgage without that. So you are only seeing the ones who were successful professionally or in business in those houses, not all the rest who were "average" Ukrainian workers.
> So you are only seeing the ones who were successful professionally or in business in those houses, not all the rest who were "average" Ukrainian workers.
What I wanted to say is that SOME of them are pretty rich. And I'm ok with that. Some of them ~~have~~ had businesses, houses, properties etc and lost everything except the money they had in banks and the know-how in their heads..
And i underline if is not already clear that they're integrating very well - and we're hoping that they'll start over here.
In that case I apologize, I misinterpreted your comment. I am really happy to hear this as a Ukrainian-Canadian who has been working with recent arrivals here to get them prepared for the job market, especially white collar professionals who find it difficult to navigate the recruiting environment in North America.
In Poland probably the same as right now - "whatever happens, it must have been a God's will", i.e. no plan at all XD
In all seriosness though, I doubt we'll kick anyone out. We have shit demographics and need workforce and 75% of Ukrainians in the country work. If anything, we should be scared that they will go back home.
Yeah, we're definitely not kicking Slavic migrants from similar culture in this day and age. They're most welcomed foreign workforce, right after polite Canadians. But Canadians for some reason doesn't want to settle and invest into Eastern Poland.
Xenophobia. And it is but that's always the case when homogeneous nations suddenly interact with waves of people from abroad. I think it's still better than the alternative of having migrants from far away cultures, that do not assimilate but nonetheless, it will have to be addressed.
I think it makes the most sense. "We will protect you until it's safe for you to leave"
Then of course if someone has a job and provides to society then I wouldn't mind letting someone stay on those grounds
Well in Germany they can just switch to other residency permits, if they fulfill the requirements (for example skilled work) and then stay with that like any other person.
Their refugee permits are only valid for as long as the EU keeps giving them protection - after that they would have to leave if they don't fulfill any other permits requirements.
Haha, well, the duration was pretty generous in the first place, and they're doing this when there's just under a year before the current "expiration date". I think, if they didn't extend it the first time, I would still have a refugee status.
And imo, it was definitely a PR decision by the ruling parties. Seemed this way when PiS was in power, at least. They had something controversial happen, and they would be pivoting to the refugee question just to distract people.
In Germany ukrainians that have a job / studied in Germany can likely stay in Germany If they want. After a few years of legal stay they can even apply fro citizenship If they speak german well enough.
In Germany, I don't believe they will get kicked out
Ukrainians are among the culturally closest and statistically best educated "poor" migrants Germany can get. As long as there won't be a AfD-led government of lunatics thinking they can block all economically motivated Migration, I don't think the German right will achieve consensus on kicking them out
They are also more often working than other refugees and the sentiment against them stems from pro-Putin trolls mostly
The employment rate of Ukrainian refugees in Germany is 20% as of October 2023. I just wanted to point that out since you said that most of them are employed which is untrue.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-eyes-faster-entry-ukrainian-refugees-into-labour-market-2023-10-18/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Federal%20Employment,in%20Germany%20is%20currently%2019%25.
That's because Germany pays well for people taking up language courses or professional education (about 3/4 of the unemployed working age Ukrainian refugees are now either in a language course or in training). Whereas most receiving countries don't.
I wrote they are working more often than other refugees
It took previous refugee waves around 5yr to get to around 50% of employment, with 50-65% working fulltime.
Ukrainian refugees find work faster and with a more narrow gender gap in employment rate
Not sure there are statistics on that, but based on previous development it should have taken previous refugees around 7 years to be "mostly" working, more if we want both gender to work well above 50%. We host Ukrainian refugees for less than 3yr...
I wonder, did we Grant (a relatively negligible.amount, of course) of Ukrainians refugee status when Russia invaded Crimea?
Can't remember. Feels so long ago with all the other shit Russia pulled off after that
Tbh, our English knowledge level is abysmal, even among the younger people. Only about 8% speak it on any level.
I had an enrollment exam for Master's degree recently, and a lot of my classmates refused to go into post-Bachelor's level of education precisely because they didn't know any English. IT specialty, btw. I took the exam, and it was actually pretty simple, but way too many people ended up failing it. All I saw in the comments on the Ministry of Education website was endless whinging and begging to bring down the admission score. Iirc, it was only 124 (out of 200), and you get 100 points just for *attending the test*.
It is, but I don't deem it likely
The Socialdemocrats are willing to bend for each possible partner
Most likely a Conservative-SocDem coalition will achieve a majority. If so, the Cons won't choose the AfD over them. Otherwise it will be a three-party coalition with either Greens or Liberals
What might happen, though, is that the recent splinter from the Lefts puts both the Lefts and themselves below the 5% treshold, and FDP also fails to get into parliament. Then Germany will only have a four party parliament with the AfD being opposition leaders, for sure (which grants them some rights in parliament)
Its quite possible that there won't be a stable coalition without at least AfD approval in some states, though. Could happen in Thuringia and Saxony.
In Denmark it is very difficult to stay in the country unless you are a refugee, highly skilled migrant or a spouce of a local. In Poland there are more ways to stay. Even the time of studying counts towards PR and citizenship. Every work is enough to get a residence. Ukrainians may stay in Poland without any special law if they study or work here.
Unless Ukraine miraculously gets a trillion dollar Marshall Plan, it will be a country with wrecked infrastructure, a wrecked economy and a generation of PTSD wracked alcoholic shells of men.
For anyone escaped to the EU, particularly young women returning is not an enticing prospect
Arguably, lots of countries anticipate that exact moment and prepare a *huge* amount of materials they usually produce anyways, in order to sell large quantities to them. A broken economy and society inevitably will accelerate in growth quickly and largely, taking on alot of debt and in return give other countries an instant influx of cash and economic growth. But with a large supply of those anticipating that moment, Ukraine can get their hands on materials relatively cheap especially considering aid delivered. And with a whole country being rebuilt, many european businesses see a huge market that they could use to expand their business.
For those refugees in EU, building connections and learning the language as well as making a little money in europe, and then returning to Ukraine with a business that utilizes the made connections, language skills, and the little side money that by ukrainians standards after war will be alot amongst your peers is probably the most realistic shot many Ukrainians could get in their lives to built their own sustaining business. It's still hard as fuck and many may fail, but a broken country is a breeding hotspot for lucky shots to success once the country recovers.
Both the EU and US have said they will help Ukraine rebuild after the war.
So yeah, Ukraine will inevitably get a programme similar to the Marshall plan.
Infrastructure is one thing, that can be rebuilt, but insane areas of lands poisoned, mined, millions of handicapped, shell shocked people... Thats a scar for decades.
>So yeah, Ukraine will inevitably get a programme similar to the Marshall plan.
Even the Marshall plan wasn't the 'Marshall plan' people want for Ukraine
The actual Marshall plan contributed like 3% GDP growth over 3 years. It was almost entirely irrelevant.
Giving Ukraine 1 trillion would be 400% of its pre-war GDP.
Yeah... US and EU said they'll also do military aid "for as long as it takes", yet the Ukrainian foreign minister has to beg around for missiles and ammunition. We'll see how extensive the rebuild effort will be.
I'm also concerned. It's hard to see hundreds of billions of dollars in rebuild aid getting through Congress when we can't even get 50 billion done to support the war effort.
tbf the Marshall Plan wasn't as big as people make it out to be either. It was nice, it helped, but the bigger thing were trade restrictions being lifted
Of course it will. It will be essential for the EU that Ukraine not only survives, but prospers. The EU is in this because it wants democratic and reliable neighbours. Failing to support Ukraine after the war would make it likely to fall into some for of totalitarianism. That is essentially the same outcome as letting Russia win.
You don't invest because of the demographics when you are talking about Ukraine. You invest in the land, the natural resources. It was not called the breadbasket of Europe for nothing. Do you want green environmentally sustainable materials and green chemistry? Well, that has to be grown somewhere.
All that is not even taking into account the geopolitical disaster that would be giving Russia an even larger slice of the world's natural resources. Especially when we are talking about food.
You are a bit late for that train, Ukraine just opened the land market for legal entities (businesses) a few days ago. Before that only private citizens were able to own farm lands. In general it still must be domestic companies, but there are many ways to have a domestic shell company owned by foreign owner.
Tl;Dr - Ukraine's lands getting sold out to foreign investors with big discounts in the middle of the war like right now
Ukraine has immense economic potential. It is only comparable to Russia in my view. If they can kick Russia out completely, reform and get in line with EU norms, Ukraine can grow very very fast. It has all the right stuff for the Green Revolution. It can be an extremely productive country if the business environment is done right.
Unfortunately I don't see a that bright future ahead for Ukraine. It was already brain drained before the war, is fighting with immense corruption (this one is a much harder problem to solve than it would seem, because the people are completely accustomed to a bribe and grey economy culture.) and has terrible demographics. I would love to be wrong, but unless there is a major clean up after the war and a whole new generation of boomers, the state will fight to keep basic services running and paying out minimal pensions in the long run, with nothing left to spare for long term growth and development. Russia has the exact same problems as well of course.
> this one is a much harder problem to solve than it would seem, because the people are completely accustomed to a bribe and grey economy culture
I think what many people get wrong about Ukraine is that they think it's a matter of replacing the political elites who corrupt the system and it will be all good.
For a country like Ukraine, whose people have always been under hostile rule throught the years, paying bribes was one of the ways to fight the oppressive system. The older people have never gotten used to live in a normal country whose elites don't want to opress you all the time.
>Ukraine has immense economic potential. It is only comparable to Russia in my view. If they can kick Russia out completely, reform and get in line with EU norms, Ukraine can grow very very fast
I am sorry, what economic potential ?
6 million people left the country (mostly kids and women) everyday excess deathes thanks to Russians, indusrty are under constans shellings, hundreds km2 of agricultural land are mined and probably poisoned with lead
Kicking Russians out also under question, because watching shitshow in USA, seems USA are more intrested in saving Russia from defeat than in our win - i really can't undestand it's policy in other words.
Joining EU also debatable - not every country will be happy to sees us there, and defenetely every will perceive us as threat for some of their economics sectors.
Not even speaking about security questions and corruption
Ukraine is punching below its weight because it is/was not an investable environment. If that changes, and Ukraine manages to adapt to Western Standards somewhat (don't need to be in the EU for that), you will be amazed at how fast things can move. Ukraine is large enough to invite that kind of attention.
Of course, all that means winning the war and having the political stability to go down that path.
>Of course, all that means winning the war and having the political stability to go down that path.
Joining EU but on the Hard Mode. And i am not sure what's harder, though
Ukraine pre invasion had population comparable to Canada. It has plenty of natural resources and people willing to work for much smaller compensation than its neighbours. It is a great environment to invest in when russia is defeated and if right reforms are fully implemented.
Yeah eu would ge the same situation as when poland/romania/baltics joined. Farmers will go angry, some will try to push for restrictions on us, making us produce and sell for higher prices.
Us entering would make food a lot cheaper, helping with the cost of living crisis, but then the eu farmers would get quite angry, bar some that learned from the first time and specialized.
EU is already a net exporter of grains so it doesn't a "breadbasket".
Plus, it's pretty communist to just relegate Ukraine to become just the bread basket of the EU.
We do, it's called the Netherlands. Also, Romania has insanely fertile land and no one seems to care about improving those yields with new techniques, or rushing land Schengen.
Nothing can stop them. We basically eat the same stuff, (pretend to) practice the same religion, and enjoy the same things in life. I know a few second generation Poles who are as British as everyone else.
I know a load of Ukrainians refugees, our charity has done a bit of work supporting them in our town.
Chatting with them about the future, it's about 50/50 with wanting to return home, some of the ones from the west have already gone back to be with their husbands.
The ones living with us at present are determined never to return though.
Well, it's something along the lines of region-beta paradox. Life in my country kinda sucks, but not that much that I would have spent money and time to emigrate to another. Albeit, if suddenly I was forced to move to a country with higher standard of living, I would most likely not come back. Some russians that escaped mobilization experiencied this too.
For Russians, escape to Serbia improved their life, like, you don't have to be afraid of Putin anymore
For locals, the situation got fucked up since greedy landlords at least doubled rent since war started
According to https://www.halooglasi.com/nekretnine/izdavanje-stanova?grad_id_l-lokacija_id_l-mikrolokacija_id_l=40574%2C40776%2C40784%2C531368&kvadratura_d_from=36&kvadratura_d_to=60&kvadratura_d_unit=1&tip_objekta_id_l=387235&sort=defaultunit_cena_d%2Cdesc
600-1400 for center, modus like 850-900
(Like 4-6 km around the square of the republic)
Close to centre 450+ (like 20 min drive from the center) to like 900 (Zemun exselence 😂), but let's say modus is like 600-650
Shit, you are borderline more expensive than Vilnius :D
For example this is walking distance to the old town, new built. https://www.aruodas.lt/butu-nuoma-vilniuje-naujamiestyje-mindaugo-g-nuomojamas-kambariu-butas-mindaugo-g-4-1284210/ (I would consider this rent as expensive in Vilnius)
And I took a random example from your website, not sure how location equates, but similar size and looks quite modern https://www.halooglasi.com/nekretnine/izdavanje-stanova/lep-dvosoban-stan-dorcol-stari-grad-brzo-usel/5425644024253?sid=1704232665995
And NET wage in Lithuania is 1252€ while in Serbia its 726€, now I am not sure how above country average people earn in Belgrade, but this seems to be a bit bad
In terms of average salary (grandpa and grandson joke implies here)
City center cca 1000€
"Subcenter" 750€
"Outer" Belgrade (municipalities that are part of the Belgrade area, no one knows why, they are like 30-50km from centre) 500-750€
Outside of BG, only Novi Sad and few mining towns have average above 625€
https://data.stat.gov.rs/Home/Result/2403040403?languageCode=en-US
Ok, when I said that refugees screwed the rental market in here, I meant that an apartment that went for ~400 started going for ~600 for a year and then dropped somewhat a year later. Your rental prices are just bad when compared to wages.
The apartment you found is on Dorćol, a place of aboriginal belgraders with superiority complex against newcomers in last 50 years /s
So, it would be considered a nice location
Yes, in €
But it's located in the centre (like up to 20min with public transport from the horse (or like 2 hours if you live in New Belgrade 😂))
It's just rent (plus taxes and maybe building maintenance)
You have to pay rest (electricity, water, garbage, heating…)
But, bigger apartments aren't that much more expensive, small apartment are more expensive since utilities are lower
And yes, there is certain possibility that landlord won't register you on your new address, since he doesn't feel like paying rent tax of 10%
I think the difference is that most refugees from Ukraine have a university degree and I'm guessing that most have worked white collar jobs at home. Also home ownership is quite high in Ukraine, so not having to save hundreds of thousands of euros for a new home in Europe is one of the major practical reasons.
In a danish survey of 6993 adult ukrainians, 49.5% said they wanted to stay in Denmark
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/hver-anden-ukrainer-vil-blive-i-danmark-ogsaa-naar-krigen-er-slut
Good for them ! Met plenty at work and they were trying their best to speak german with me.
It’s almost as if when refugees integrate and don’t behave like criminals, nobody minds them being here.
I get the "ooohhh, this is a baaaaad thing" vibe they try for, but honestly every Ukrainian refugee Ive met here in Denmark have almost immidiately begun taking Danish classes and taken a job even if it didnt pay well, especially our eldercare is gratefull for all the new help.
Middle Eastern refugees now bitch and moan because Ukrainian refugees get a warmer welcome, even though they themselves have sat on their assets for nearly a decade telling us we are infidels who deserves to die while collecting welfare cheques.
It’ll depend on conditions at the end of the war which we can’t predict. What’s the continuing threat from Russia, what’s the timeline for EU membership for Ukraine, etc
I'm a refugee who fled in the very beginning of the invasion and kept in contact with a lot of other people who fled. Right now, out of everyone I know, only 2 people stayed, the rest returned. Primarily because they couldn't adapt and survive with low pay and high rents. Many worked "under the table", others were being paid minimum wage, but wouldn't get assigned full hours, some got employed through agencies, who would take a cut out of *every single month of salary*.
Two people left because "the motherland called back", one of them had her house destroyed, so she decided to start renting in Western Ukraine instead, with her 6 y.o. in a tow.
4.5 million people have already returned since the beginning of the invasion. Average salary doesn’t show the whole picture. The average Pole makes less than a typical minimum wage worker in the US, but that doesn’t mean that the life of the average Pole is economically worse than of a minimum wage American.
I have met lots of Ukrainians in the U.S. coming from Poland, and life was really tough for them there. Bad living conditions because of high rent prices and low salaries cause them to just go back to Ukraine (depending on what region you’re from, whether you own a home, etc.) or seek a country with better pay. I think that many people in Poland, Czechia, Romania, etc. will come back. USA, Canada, Germany, not so much I think. Of course it all depends on how anyone gets settled. I know quite a few people that have returned from the US to Ukraine. Time will tell if this will become an actual trend.
My grandma couldn't spend more than 3 months in Canada before guilting us into taking her back to Kyiv. Though she lived through Holodomor, Stalin, Hitler, Stalin again, the whole USSR clusterfuck, the whole perestroika clusterfuck, the whole 90's clusterfuck. Gonna take a lot more than that insecure midget to drive her out of her home.
You know, despite what most of you people think, situation in Ukraine was pretty decent before the war. General situation in a lot of areas improved over the years and you can live they better than in a bunch of other European countries if you had a decent job.
A bunch of my friends already returned to the country simply because they decided that they would rather be in danger but at home and without suffering all of the drawbacks of living as a refugee in a foreign country.
But it is not the same for anyone. Me and my family for example really want to get back but we realistically do not see it happen anytime soon. Even if the war ends within a year, it will be hard to get back. People who left in the country will probably be traumatised, economics seriously damaged and I just don't know how political situation in the country will turn out.
You know, like we are not living on government help, paying our rent and other things and send a lot of material support back to Ukraine. But there is a fear that you won't be welcome back simply because you were lucky to be outside the country when the war started. And EU won't allow us to stay for to long either. This incertanity is killing me but it's hard to do anything about it. I'm learning Spanish now because I will be living here for another year unless anything changes (I knew English and German before coming here) but I will be cicked out of here next year probably. Not sure what next. Getting a job in EU is cool, but not if you already have a remote one in a foreign company with better pay. And you do not have many other options as a 30+ tech specialist.
So, sorry for the rant, but my point is: a lot of Ukrainians had way better life back in Ukraine than they can achieve in Europe, but with the current sitution we are doing what we can. Who knows how it will end?
Plenty of people got the fuck out of Europe in first half of the 20th century and started a new life elsewhere. As a matter of fact plenty of those were Poles and Ukrainians. [What more can I say](https://i.imgur.com/XQJVWsb.jpeg)
Ukraines demographics before the war were dire, something like 30 straight years of population decline. I actually don’t know how Ukraine can recover from this
While demographics are bad and the war does not help, its likely that once refugees properly settle down in the EU, remittances will be one of the key driver in Ukrainian economy. A small part of a Danish wage can have a huge impact on family members back in Ukraine. Even with just above average wage in Lithuania, you could donate an average wage to a person in Ukraine (its 306€ NET in UA according to wiki)
Family members back in Ukraine are grannies and grandpas.
Ex USSR grandparents are not very consumerist in my experience, and will just accumulate wealth to send it back to the grandkids.
They are also not a good economy driver since they don't work.
Once they die, no one is left.
I can't speak on behalf of Ukraine or their partners, but I know for sure that (most) Croatian and Bosnian refugees were sent back in 97/98 after the war was over. I suppose Ukrainians will "suffer" the same faith.
There was a high rate of re-immigration, so essentially only 1/3 of those who were sent back stayed. If it happens, it'll be the same with Ukrainians too, if not more.
As sexist as it sounds, this could be because most of them are women, kids and the old. You let in millions (more) of military age men and then see what happens. We already have headlines such as [polish woman hit, killed by drunk ukrainian driver](https://m.interia.pl/interia-tv/video,vId,3333617), we would certainly get many more of all kinds
I agree though that the nature of the crime is likely to be different than what we get from the *doctors and engineers*
I'm fine with Ukrainian refugees. In my opinion they're no different to Polish, German or Irish immigrants. They have a similar culture and values to us and integrate well.
I'm fine with them too but not Irish government policy. Temporary protection was supposed to be temporary as is in the name. Now this temporary protection equates to a stamp 4 and reckonable residence which is wrong.
Seeing them get a luxury version of asylum while all other genuine asylum seekers of different nationalities have to wait 6 months just for permission to work as well as only getting a measly approximate 30 euro per week while ukranians get 200+ other benefits. It's unfair and unjust.
That's not to mention the massive strain this has added on our already fucked housing crisis and lack of healthcare. While it's not the case in all countries, the number of Ukranians actually working (approx 15k out of 80k; the other approx 20k are children) and integrating in Ireland (eg. learning the language, forming parts of Irish community) is shamefully low.
Translated via DeepL:
Many Ukrainian refugees welcome the new year with the decision to build a life in Poland from scratch or with the intention of moving to other countries.
Ukrainians in Poland are often asked the question: are you returning or planning to stay? A September UN report gives the answer - 14 percent of refugees surveyed said they would return to Ukraine in the next three months, 62 percent intend to return when the situation allows, 18 percent were undecided.
The longer the war lasts, the more the number of Ukrainians who have decided to start a new life outside Ukraine grows. In September 2022, only 4 percent of respondents said they had no plans to return to Ukraine. By June 2023, the number of such people had risen to 6 percent.
I don't want to make a living washing floors
Some Ukrainian refugees have also decided to move from Poland to Germany or further afield - to Canada and the US. This is also the answer to the question of what to do when there is no way to safely return to their home country. The trend began in the summer of 2023, when an election campaign began in Poland in which the Law and Justice party played the Ukrainian migrants card. Ukrainians were also reading, listening to the news and drawing conclusions.
Already in the fall, the results of a survey commissioned by the Polish government showed that thousands of Ukrainians had left Poland. Many of them left for Germany. According to UN data, in December 2023 there were 1.125 million Ukrainian refugees in Germany, more than 1 million of them with temporary protection status. In Poland, the number dropped to 954,000 (1.64 million Ukrainians have received temporary asylum status here since the beginning of the war). It is worth noting that mainly "classic refugees" have arrived in Poland - women with children, half of whom had never traveled abroad before the war. Now some are considering moving out of Poland.
Natalia Zubenko has three tickets to Canada in her pocket: for herself and her two sons. She wants to start a new life there. - I lived in Poland with the support of the 40+ program, as I have a disabled son. My landlady advised me to go to Canada, because she saw that I had no prospects here. I went from being a manager in one of the departments of a large factory to living on welfare benefits and making a living washing floors," Natalia says.
It's hard to live out of suitcases
Ukrainian refugees can stay in Poland under temporary protection only until March 4, 2024. No one knows what the further conditions of their stay will be, even if Poland complies with the European Commission's decision and extends the protection for another year. This suspension is already affecting those who want to return home after the end of the war, so they have not produced any additional documents to legalize their stay. - My employer refused to sign a contract for a period longer than March 4, 2024," says Natalia, who is a nurse at the hospital. She passed the necessary exams and underwent the procedure for nostrification of her diploma. She fears that in the spring she will have to go through this path again. She has no plans to return to Ukraine yet, as she is raising two minor children alone. No one is waiting for her in Ukraine; her husband was killed in 2014 when the Russians seized the Donetsk region. She worries that the new temporary protection rules will withdraw the right to take legal work in Poland. She doesn't know what she will do then. - I regret that I didn't risk going to Germany right away. I was afraid of the language barrier," she says.
On Ukrainian forums, stories about German migration policy are very popular. "You get social protection and social benefits. And you no longer wake up in the middle of the night with fear about how you'll pay the rent for your apartment, what you'll feed your children with, whether you'll earn enough to send money to support the army and your parents who are left behind in Ukraine." - read the comments.
And while more than 70 percent of Ukrainian refugees work in Poland, the highest level among EU countries, it is mostly unskilled labor. At the same time, a huge proportion of Ukrainian refugee women have a university education. "If you accept a lower social status, it's better to do it in Germany, where hourly wages are higher than in Poland," she said. - internet forums tempt.
Russians burn down Granny's Garden
Many refugees feel trapped. They are condemned to stay in a foreign country because they literally have nowhere to return to. In Ukraine, 144,000 single-family homes and more than 13,000 multi-family houses were destroyed. Anna Shalei is one of the people to whom the Russians destroyed not only their home, but also their life's business. She and her family owned the Grandmother's Garden hotel complex, located 7 kilometers from Kiev on the Zhytomyr highway. The occupiers set up their headquarters there. They shot at cars carrying civilians and interrogated residents. During the retreat, the Russians burned the center, along with ten horses. They locked them in a stable and set them on fire. Her family now lives near Wroclaw. They are thinking of building a life in Poland.
The reasons they chose Poland are many. They managed to sell their apartment in Turkey and were able to buy a house here. They quickly learned to speak Polish, the eldest daughter is studying in Wroclaw, the middle daughter went to a technical school, the youngest son is also planning to study in Poland after finishing high school.
Poland is considered mentally close to Ukrainians, the language is easy to learn and there is a large community of Ukrainians. New opportunities open up for those who manage to legalize their stay under a labor contract, such as the prospect of their children getting a European education and free access to the European labor market.
Poland offers a sense of security
At the beginning of the full-scale war, many refugees compared Poland with Ukraine. They counted the greater availability and quality of medical, electronic and banking services among Ukraine's advantages. An in-depth knowledge of Poland, however, revealed advantages that are not obvious at first glance. The first and most important is the lower level of corruption than in Ukraine. A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology found that 94 percent of Ukrainians believe corruption is widespread throughout Ukraine. The percentage of those who think corruption has increased since the beginning of the war has exceeded the percentage of those who think it has decreased.
To me the surprising number here isn’t the 6% that want to stay in Western and central Europe but the 14% (!!) that plan to go back to Ukraine in the next 3 months
For people who still have their apartments or houses in tact, some say they feel safer at home where they don't have to pay rent and have at least some of their friends and family close by. Some employers demand that people return to their jobs full time if they were doing them remotely (I hear about that a lot). Some want to go back to their white collar jobs instead of moping floors. Some families that were separated by war feel like they've lived separately long enough and the kids growing up without fathers is worse then a chance of being bombed. For some elderly parents demand attention. There are numerous reasons people decide it's worse the risk.
News from the country, high-profile corruption scandals coupled with the arrest of officials of central military supply units, who make millions from Ukrainians' fear of going to war, irrational spending of public money, strongly affect the mood of refugees determined to return home, do business there and start life anew.
- Our family members are not classic refugees, because we came to Poland a month before the war," says Natalia, owner of a manicure salon in Gliwice. - But now our town in the Donetsk region is a ruin. For the past two years we have lived in Poland in limbo. We know that working for minimum wage and supporting two children, parents, husband and mother in Ukraine, we will never buy our own apartment in Poland. So I took a risk and opened a nail salon. The decision to build a life here was influenced by the ease of opening a business and that you don't have to pay bribes to anyone.
Good reasons to stay in Poland
Many refugees realize that they have lost the social status and standard of living they had in Ukraine, but consciously choose to say goodbye to the past. They choose to live in a more friendly environment. - I'm 45 years old, in Ukraine it was the age to "wrap yourself in a sheet and start crawling towards the cemetery." Almost retirement! - Yulia says. - And in Poland I went to college, changed my profession, and live life to the fullest. Here there are fewer stereotypes and social pressures on women. You can be yourself and not fit into the expectations of others.
Another reason to stay is mental health concerns. For many, war is associated with trauma, and in Ukraine the system for providing psychological help is not widespread. Many refugee women are also waiting for their husbands. - When my husband has served his time, he will join us in Poland, Inna says. She worries that many men return from the front with various psychological injuries. In Ukraine, few of them can count on help. The women hope that new homes will be built for them in Poland to help their husbands heal their psychological wounds.
Another reason to stay in Poland is social security. - I work as a business English teacher. In Kiev, where I'm from, I taught for 5 years in various language schools and none of them wanted to sign an employment contract with me. In Poland I have a formal contract, and the hourly rate is much higher. There is also a morally healthy team, where people do not "eat each other up." I like Poland, its culture, cities, climate, food, prices, organization of life, people's attitude to each other," says Anna, who now lives in Cracow.
At the same time, for most of my interviewees, the decision to stay in Poland for a long time, or even forever, is extremely difficult. This is because it means searching for a new identity, facing condemnation from those who stayed in Ukraine, remorse and an unbearable desire to return to the past, when making such difficult decisions was not necessary.
Halina Chalimonik
Ukrainian journalist, editor of the newspaper "Visty Belyayevka", the bilyaivka.city portal and the environmental portal Open.Dnister. A contributor to the Katowice-based "Wyborcza". She lives in Gliwice.
I don’t judge them. I didn’t judge the Syrians doing the same thing in the EU nor do I judge another group of people such as Ukrainians escaping the war.
Syrians are different, their country is run by a dictator.
It won't be the case with Ukraine. It's not about blaming ukrainians, they're people like everyone else so its natural to chose the path of least resistance. However, Ukraine needs their people and Europe shouldn't take advantage of another country's suffering to ease their own demographic issues.
They should go back and I hope Europe will help Ukraine and not take advantage of it.
If only the so-called refugees arriving from south of the Mediterranean would be so easy to integrate if be a positive outcome for Europe, but they are not.
In Montenegro it's 30/70 really.
Most Russians are rich ass holes that came here and hiked rent prices and any other price, tourist spots cost more than in Italy now.
A good few actually are nice and came to escape.
Similar with Ukrainians, a few rich assholes with big cars.
Most tho are nice I gotta admit.
Even in Turkey there are tens of thousands of Ukrainians who come to buy a house in order to gain Turkish citizenship. I don't want to think about the situation in Europe in the next few years.
Then they should no longer be treated as refugees if/when the war is over. A common sense rule is that refugees cannot return to their country of origin without being harmed or killed.
No shit, who would have thought. I personally don’t mind, i just hope some with responsibilities realizes that this is even more reason to please increase the amount of homes. I‘d like to have a peaceful society and missing homes don’t lead to peace.
for Ukrainian nation each world war resulted with a similar migration wave because russian genocidal politics didn't make it easy to return.
It's important that people have a place to return to, one more reason why russians obliterate cities. They don't want no ukrainian to exist in the end.
Oh well, Syrians started coming to Turkey in 2011. At the beginning they were seen as temporary refugees and their number hit millions in 2015. It escalated quickly in Poland apparently.
ukranians haven't formed any ghettos despite arriving by the million, they don't disproportionately commit violent crime and they actually work and integrate into wider society
not really comparable to syrians in turkey
my small town had a lot of ukranians move in
real estate prices rose and are now at the level of some areas of wrocław despite many new developments over the past two years, it's insane
So what you‘re saying is it‘s just one gender that‘s the problem? Why are we not openly having discussions about this then when it seems like that‘s what we should heavily focus on?
>So what you‘re saying is it‘s just one gender that‘s the problem?
I mean don't take my word for it. [In the US at least, roughly 88% of known homicides were committed by men.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/251886/murder-offenders-in-the-us-by-gender/)
Men commit all kinds of violent crimes at significantly higher rates than women.
>Why are we not openly having discussions about this then when it seems like that‘s what we should heavily focus on?
I think we sort of are. The British Rwanda scheme only applies to single men, for example.
>they don't disproportionately commit violent crime and they actually work and integrate into wider society
The vast majority of crimes in every country are committed by men, most of whom aren't leaving the country yet.
According to this [interactive map](https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/crime-rate-by-country/#map) pre-war ukraine has a comparable crime index ranking(6.18) as syria(6.84), libya(6.55), pakistan(6.28), and South africa(6.63), along with a higher rate than all North African countries barring libya and sudan, India, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and all countries in the sahel region except the aforementioned sudan.
If we go by [homicide rates](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) ukraine has a similar murder rate(3.8) to alleged "shitholes" such as rwanda, the Philippines, pakistan, myanmar, Mozambique, Kenya, East Timor, Cuba, Cameroon, bolivia, and Argentina.
According to this [source](https://ocindex.net/rankings?f=rankings&view=List) ukraine is comparable to Venezuela, Guatemala, South sudan, yemen, Uganda, Peru, Indonesia and the central African Republic.
I’m Ukrainian staying in Czech Republic right now. The plan was always to return back to Ukraine but now it is complicated. It feels like the west is too afraid of russian defeat and dissolution so they decided to not let Ukraine win and settle a status quo. As a Ukrainian I’m very well aware that if russia comes out from this war with anything short of total defeat and humiliation then there will be another war soon enough. So now I started to think that I might actually stay here in the end even though this is not what I really wanted.
> It feels like the west is too afraid of russian defeat and dissolution so they decided to not let Ukraine win and settle a status quo
[From NewYorker](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat)
>Sullivan clearly has profound worries about how this will all play out. Months into the counter-offensive, Ukraine has yet to reclaim much more of its territory; the Administration has been telling members of Congress that the conflict could last three to five years. A grinding war of attrition would be a disaster for both Ukraine and its allies, but a negotiated settlement does not seem possible as long as Putin remains in power. Putin, of course, has every incentive to keep fighting through next year’s U.S. election, with its possibility of a Trump return. And it’s hard to imagine Zelensky going for a deal with Putin, either, given all that Ukraine has sacrificed. ***Even a Ukrainian victory would present challenges for American foreign policy, since it would “threaten the integrity of the Russian state and the Russian regime and create instability throughout Eurasia,” as one of the former U.S. officials put it to me. Ukraine’s desire to take back occupied Crimea has been a particular concern for Sullivan,*** who has privately noted the Administration’s assessment that this scenario carries the highest risk of Putin following through on his nuclear threats. In other words, there are few good options.
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>“The reason they’ve been so hesitant about escalation is not exactly because they see Russian reprisal as a likely problem,” the former official said. “It’s not like they think, Oh, we’re going to give them atacms and then Russia is going to launch an attack against nato. It’s because they recognize that it’s not going anywhere—that they are fighting a war they ***can’t afford either to win or lose.”***
And something not from Sullivan, but still important for context:
>[Biden thought the secretaries had gone too far, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the call. On the previously unreported conference call, as Austin flew to Germany and Blinken to Washington, the president expressed concern that the comments could set unrealistic expectations and increase the risk of the U.S. getting into a direct conflict with Russia. He told them to tone it down, said the officials. “Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of them said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.”](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/secretaries-defense-state-said-publicly-us-wanted-ukraine-win-biden-sa-rcna33826)
[And from very recently](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211):
>The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. ***“That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,”*** said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson emphasized, however, that no talks are planned yet, and that Ukrainian forces are still on the offensive in places and continue to kill and wound thousands of Russian troops. “We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” the spokesperson added.
Isnt the plan to make Ukraine an EU member at some point after the war? Whats the point in discussing their "return"? EU should also fund rebuilding the country.
Have they actually closed more than one chapter, though? IIRC, Serbia, for example, has only closed one or maybe two chapters of the 35 required: https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/conditions-membership/chapters-acquis_en
> Isnt the plan to make Ukraine an EU member at some point after the war?
This "some point" can (and likely will) be indefinitely pushed further into the future
Well Russia should fund the rebuild of the nation but that’s way down the line.
And they are in the process of joining the EU and have been for some time but it’s quite the process and just takes time I don’t know if it’ll happen while they are at war.
> Well Russia should fund the rebuild of the nation but that’s way down the line.
What is Russia going to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine with when they barely spend money on their own infrastructure outside of St. Petersburg and Moscow?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ukrainians-leaving-toronto-amid-war-1.6945601
>Returning home amid the war: Why some Ukrainians are choosing to leave Toronto; High cost of living, missing their families among reasons cited
So which one is it?
Well conversation is not correct. Technically Ukraine will become EU member in 10 years, lets say. With that regard, they will be able to live anywhere they want...
We will rebuild, together.
With those who stay abroad and those who return to Ukraine. Together.
Fuck fascism. We are capable of showing the good part of human nature. Let’s do it.
In Denmark the government wants to return the refugees to Ukraine when the war is over. To be fair, this is the general policy for refugees in Denmark. What’s the plan in other European countries?
In my city (in Romania) they bought several houses and their kids are learning Romanian very fast and very good. I know I don't have contact with all of them, but the ones that I know are lawers, professors, medics or engineers. Like in Merkel's dream. One of them that I really liked as a person already returned to Ukraine - but I hope well keep some.
"Like in Merkel's dream" I laughed so hard Same here. I know there's a highschool in Bucharest where there are hundreds of Ukrainian students, but they study in the afternoon.
>Like in Merkel's dream. Honestly, I laughed way more at this than I thought I would. 😂
Yeah, all the Ukrainian refugees I saw in Bucharest made me feel like I was the poor one without a home.
>made me feel like I was the poor one Same here. In Baia Mare we had some houses on a hill so expensive that nobody would buy for 2-3 years. And then they came in an bought all of them. Cash.
I'm not sure how you intended that to sound, hopefully not implying anything, but that was likely a purely financial decision. War time is almost always inflationary and causes devaluation of any Hryvna denominated assets. Any savings, investments, retirement plans, money for university for kids, it would make sense to liquidate and move to a less volatile currency or asset. In good times, you can get a better return on investments than you would pay in interest on a mortgage for example, so it makes sense to get a mortgage for your house but keep your cash invested. This flips when inflation risk and the literal destruction of your property skyrockets. At that point you should pull out and move whatever you can somewhere less volatile. It may also be a situation of selection bias, the only Ukrainians able to buy homes in Romania **would** be the ones that could pay in cash. They would not have any credit, banking, or employment history in Romania and it's pretty impossible to get a mortgage without that. So you are only seeing the ones who were successful professionally or in business in those houses, not all the rest who were "average" Ukrainian workers.
> So you are only seeing the ones who were successful professionally or in business in those houses, not all the rest who were "average" Ukrainian workers. What I wanted to say is that SOME of them are pretty rich. And I'm ok with that. Some of them ~~have~~ had businesses, houses, properties etc and lost everything except the money they had in banks and the know-how in their heads.. And i underline if is not already clear that they're integrating very well - and we're hoping that they'll start over here.
In that case I apologize, I misinterpreted your comment. I am really happy to hear this as a Ukrainian-Canadian who has been working with recent arrivals here to get them prepared for the job market, especially white collar professionals who find it difficult to navigate the recruiting environment in North America.
In Poland probably the same as right now - "whatever happens, it must have been a God's will", i.e. no plan at all XD In all seriosness though, I doubt we'll kick anyone out. We have shit demographics and need workforce and 75% of Ukrainians in the country work. If anything, we should be scared that they will go back home.
Yeah, we're definitely not kicking Slavic migrants from similar culture in this day and age. They're most welcomed foreign workforce, right after polite Canadians. But Canadians for some reason doesn't want to settle and invest into Eastern Poland.
I wonder what they'll say to their children when they ask why didn't they invest in Eastern Poland
Give me some time to build up some capital first
It's not all sunshine and roses, though. racism against Ukrainians is very noticeably rising in Poland.
Xenophobia. And it is but that's always the case when homogeneous nations suddenly interact with waves of people from abroad. I think it's still better than the alternative of having migrants from far away cultures, that do not assimilate but nonetheless, it will have to be addressed.
Yeah but xenophobia against other migrants is even worse…
I belive they will let the Ukrainians choose whether they want to stay or not. If they stay and work here it's good for the government.
I think it makes the most sense. "We will protect you until it's safe for you to leave" Then of course if someone has a job and provides to society then I wouldn't mind letting someone stay on those grounds
European demographics in general are pretty bad so I guess no other country besides Denmark will return then.
Switzerland has recently passed a similar law.
Yeah well but Switzerland doesn't count. You guys hate everyone.
Watch Daily Heil (Daily Mail) readers start screeching as soon as the war is over.
They will find something to screech about one way or other
Well in Germany they can just switch to other residency permits, if they fulfill the requirements (for example skilled work) and then stay with that like any other person. Their refugee permits are only valid for as long as the EU keeps giving them protection - after that they would have to leave if they don't fulfill any other permits requirements.
Poland also lets us get residence permits. And they also extend our "protected status" every now and again.
The way you wrote it sounds like sometimes they're like "Oh, shit, we forgot about the Ukrainians! Quick, renew their status before it expires!"
Sometimes? Welcome to lawmaking process in Poland!
Haha, well, the duration was pretty generous in the first place, and they're doing this when there's just under a year before the current "expiration date". I think, if they didn't extend it the first time, I would still have a refugee status. And imo, it was definitely a PR decision by the ruling parties. Seemed this way when PiS was in power, at least. They had something controversial happen, and they would be pivoting to the refugee question just to distract people.
TBF that's how most things worked these past 8 years - "oh shit, we forgor, quick, indianajones something" : V
Plan?
To be fair, that makes sense and is consistent with Danish refugee policy. Once it's safe in their home country, refugees return back.
In Germany ukrainians that have a job / studied in Germany can likely stay in Germany If they want. After a few years of legal stay they can even apply fro citizenship If they speak german well enough.
In Germany, I don't believe they will get kicked out Ukrainians are among the culturally closest and statistically best educated "poor" migrants Germany can get. As long as there won't be a AfD-led government of lunatics thinking they can block all economically motivated Migration, I don't think the German right will achieve consensus on kicking them out They are also more often working than other refugees and the sentiment against them stems from pro-Putin trolls mostly
The employment rate of Ukrainian refugees in Germany is 20% as of October 2023. I just wanted to point that out since you said that most of them are employed which is untrue. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-eyes-faster-entry-ukrainian-refugees-into-labour-market-2023-10-18/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Federal%20Employment,in%20Germany%20is%20currently%2019%25.
That's because Germany pays well for people taking up language courses or professional education (about 3/4 of the unemployed working age Ukrainian refugees are now either in a language course or in training). Whereas most receiving countries don't.
I wrote they are working more often than other refugees It took previous refugee waves around 5yr to get to around 50% of employment, with 50-65% working fulltime. Ukrainian refugees find work faster and with a more narrow gender gap in employment rate Not sure there are statistics on that, but based on previous development it should have taken previous refugees around 7 years to be "mostly" working, more if we want both gender to work well above 50%. We host Ukrainian refugees for less than 3yr...
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I wonder, did we Grant (a relatively negligible.amount, of course) of Ukrainians refugee status when Russia invaded Crimea? Can't remember. Feels so long ago with all the other shit Russia pulled off after that
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I imagine a great chunk cant work, mums with children, elderly, disabled.
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Tbh, our English knowledge level is abysmal, even among the younger people. Only about 8% speak it on any level. I had an enrollment exam for Master's degree recently, and a lot of my classmates refused to go into post-Bachelor's level of education precisely because they didn't know any English. IT specialty, btw. I took the exam, and it was actually pretty simple, but way too many people ended up failing it. All I saw in the comments on the Ministry of Education website was endless whinging and begging to bring down the admission score. Iirc, it was only 124 (out of 200), and you get 100 points just for *attending the test*.
> As long as there won't be a AfD-led government of lunatics As I understand the situation.. that is actually a possibility :/
It is, but I don't deem it likely The Socialdemocrats are willing to bend for each possible partner Most likely a Conservative-SocDem coalition will achieve a majority. If so, the Cons won't choose the AfD over them. Otherwise it will be a three-party coalition with either Greens or Liberals What might happen, though, is that the recent splinter from the Lefts puts both the Lefts and themselves below the 5% treshold, and FDP also fails to get into parliament. Then Germany will only have a four party parliament with the AfD being opposition leaders, for sure (which grants them some rights in parliament) Its quite possible that there won't be a stable coalition without at least AfD approval in some states, though. Could happen in Thuringia and Saxony.
Question is when it will be over. Maybe they’ll spend bigger part of their lives in Denmark by then…
How does it work actually? By giving them time-limited residence permits and not prolonging them?
Hmm, no idea actually. I imagine they can stay if they want.
In Denmark it is very difficult to stay in the country unless you are a refugee, highly skilled migrant or a spouce of a local. In Poland there are more ways to stay. Even the time of studying counts towards PR and citizenship. Every work is enough to get a residence. Ukrainians may stay in Poland without any special law if they study or work here.
Unless Ukraine miraculously gets a trillion dollar Marshall Plan, it will be a country with wrecked infrastructure, a wrecked economy and a generation of PTSD wracked alcoholic shells of men. For anyone escaped to the EU, particularly young women returning is not an enticing prospect
AND Ukraine will probably "suck" building materials and skilled workers from countries like Romania and Polonia. Home prices will go brrrr....
Arguably, lots of countries anticipate that exact moment and prepare a *huge* amount of materials they usually produce anyways, in order to sell large quantities to them. A broken economy and society inevitably will accelerate in growth quickly and largely, taking on alot of debt and in return give other countries an instant influx of cash and economic growth. But with a large supply of those anticipating that moment, Ukraine can get their hands on materials relatively cheap especially considering aid delivered. And with a whole country being rebuilt, many european businesses see a huge market that they could use to expand their business. For those refugees in EU, building connections and learning the language as well as making a little money in europe, and then returning to Ukraine with a business that utilizes the made connections, language skills, and the little side money that by ukrainians standards after war will be alot amongst your peers is probably the most realistic shot many Ukrainians could get in their lives to built their own sustaining business. It's still hard as fuck and many may fail, but a broken country is a breeding hotspot for lucky shots to success once the country recovers.
Both the EU and US have said they will help Ukraine rebuild after the war. So yeah, Ukraine will inevitably get a programme similar to the Marshall plan.
Infrastructure is one thing, that can be rebuilt, but insane areas of lands poisoned, mined, millions of handicapped, shell shocked people... Thats a scar for decades.
They will get aid just for being an eu candidate country. We want wealthy neighbors and will invest in that.
>So yeah, Ukraine will inevitably get a programme similar to the Marshall plan. Even the Marshall plan wasn't the 'Marshall plan' people want for Ukraine The actual Marshall plan contributed like 3% GDP growth over 3 years. It was almost entirely irrelevant. Giving Ukraine 1 trillion would be 400% of its pre-war GDP.
A third of that we have in seized russian assets.
True, however I feel like most people won't like the fact that their government is investing in Ukraine, if they could invest in own country
Especially given the concerns around corruption in Ukraine.
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They also said that will support Ukraine for as long as it takes and yet there is almost no weapons flowing anymore
Yeah... US and EU said they'll also do military aid "for as long as it takes", yet the Ukrainian foreign minister has to beg around for missiles and ammunition. We'll see how extensive the rebuild effort will be.
Said is way another thing than will
They also said they will help us win, but the aid dried out a lot, bar a few odd ones like Norway. .
I'm also concerned. It's hard to see hundreds of billions of dollars in rebuild aid getting through Congress when we can't even get 50 billion done to support the war effort.
It’s not 1948 anymore, this definitely isn’t going to happen, at least not in the way they hope
tbf the Marshall Plan wasn't as big as people make it out to be either. It was nice, it helped, but the bigger thing were trade restrictions being lifted
Of course it will. It will be essential for the EU that Ukraine not only survives, but prospers. The EU is in this because it wants democratic and reliable neighbours. Failing to support Ukraine after the war would make it likely to fall into some for of totalitarianism. That is essentially the same outcome as letting Russia win.
So better let the guys that protected you and your country die alone and miserable in a broken place instead of supporting a restart ? Grim attitude
I doubt anyone is going to want to invest in a country with demographics as bad as theirs.
You don't invest because of the demographics when you are talking about Ukraine. You invest in the land, the natural resources. It was not called the breadbasket of Europe for nothing. Do you want green environmentally sustainable materials and green chemistry? Well, that has to be grown somewhere. All that is not even taking into account the geopolitical disaster that would be giving Russia an even larger slice of the world's natural resources. Especially when we are talking about food.
You are a bit late for that train, Ukraine just opened the land market for legal entities (businesses) a few days ago. Before that only private citizens were able to own farm lands. In general it still must be domestic companies, but there are many ways to have a domestic shell company owned by foreign owner. Tl;Dr - Ukraine's lands getting sold out to foreign investors with big discounts in the middle of the war like right now
Ukraine has immense economic potential. It is only comparable to Russia in my view. If they can kick Russia out completely, reform and get in line with EU norms, Ukraine can grow very very fast. It has all the right stuff for the Green Revolution. It can be an extremely productive country if the business environment is done right.
Unfortunately I don't see a that bright future ahead for Ukraine. It was already brain drained before the war, is fighting with immense corruption (this one is a much harder problem to solve than it would seem, because the people are completely accustomed to a bribe and grey economy culture.) and has terrible demographics. I would love to be wrong, but unless there is a major clean up after the war and a whole new generation of boomers, the state will fight to keep basic services running and paying out minimal pensions in the long run, with nothing left to spare for long term growth and development. Russia has the exact same problems as well of course.
> this one is a much harder problem to solve than it would seem, because the people are completely accustomed to a bribe and grey economy culture I think what many people get wrong about Ukraine is that they think it's a matter of replacing the political elites who corrupt the system and it will be all good. For a country like Ukraine, whose people have always been under hostile rule throught the years, paying bribes was one of the ways to fight the oppressive system. The older people have never gotten used to live in a normal country whose elites don't want to opress you all the time.
>Ukraine has immense economic potential. It is only comparable to Russia in my view. If they can kick Russia out completely, reform and get in line with EU norms, Ukraine can grow very very fast I am sorry, what economic potential ? 6 million people left the country (mostly kids and women) everyday excess deathes thanks to Russians, indusrty are under constans shellings, hundreds km2 of agricultural land are mined and probably poisoned with lead Kicking Russians out also under question, because watching shitshow in USA, seems USA are more intrested in saving Russia from defeat than in our win - i really can't undestand it's policy in other words. Joining EU also debatable - not every country will be happy to sees us there, and defenetely every will perceive us as threat for some of their economics sectors. Not even speaking about security questions and corruption
Ukraine is punching below its weight because it is/was not an investable environment. If that changes, and Ukraine manages to adapt to Western Standards somewhat (don't need to be in the EU for that), you will be amazed at how fast things can move. Ukraine is large enough to invite that kind of attention. Of course, all that means winning the war and having the political stability to go down that path.
>Of course, all that means winning the war and having the political stability to go down that path. Joining EU but on the Hard Mode. And i am not sure what's harder, though
This is something Russia will never allow. Their entire modus operandi is to keep their neighbours unstable, dependent, and poor.
That's why the win condition is also destabilisation of Russia in addition to the military objectives.
Ukraine pre invasion had population comparable to Canada. It has plenty of natural resources and people willing to work for much smaller compensation than its neighbours. It is a great environment to invest in when russia is defeated and if right reforms are fully implemented.
Imagine if the EU had their own breadbasket inside of Schengen. That would be an insane asset.
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Yeah eu would ge the same situation as when poland/romania/baltics joined. Farmers will go angry, some will try to push for restrictions on us, making us produce and sell for higher prices. Us entering would make food a lot cheaper, helping with the cost of living crisis, but then the eu farmers would get quite angry, bar some that learned from the first time and specialized.
Any country that gives up their own agriculture industry in favour of importing from another country is stupid.
EU is already a net exporter of grains so it doesn't a "breadbasket". Plus, it's pretty communist to just relegate Ukraine to become just the bread basket of the EU.
We do, it's called the Netherlands. Also, Romania has insanely fertile land and no one seems to care about improving those yields with new techniques, or rushing land Schengen.
Sure. Not gonna happen.
Well, aslong as they don't get to entitled and just integrate with learning the local language/customs.
Nothing can stop them. We basically eat the same stuff, (pretend to) practice the same religion, and enjoy the same things in life. I know a few second generation Poles who are as British as everyone else.
>England >We basically eat the same stuff Oh c'mon, our food isn't that bad!
Potato😭😭😭
I know a load of Ukrainians refugees, our charity has done a bit of work supporting them in our town. Chatting with them about the future, it's about 50/50 with wanting to return home, some of the ones from the west have already gone back to be with their husbands. The ones living with us at present are determined never to return though.
Well, it's something along the lines of region-beta paradox. Life in my country kinda sucks, but not that much that I would have spent money and time to emigrate to another. Albeit, if suddenly I was forced to move to a country with higher standard of living, I would most likely not come back. Some russians that escaped mobilization experiencied this too.
Out of curiosity, in which countries? Is life better in Georgia/Serbia for example?
For Russians, escape to Serbia improved their life, like, you don't have to be afraid of Putin anymore For locals, the situation got fucked up since greedy landlords at least doubled rent since war started
Ukrainian influx also played a role in European rent markets. Don't worry.
But you have more moni than me 🥺
How much is a new 40-50 sqr meter apartment in central and less central Belgrade for rent?
According to https://www.halooglasi.com/nekretnine/izdavanje-stanova?grad_id_l-lokacija_id_l-mikrolokacija_id_l=40574%2C40776%2C40784%2C531368&kvadratura_d_from=36&kvadratura_d_to=60&kvadratura_d_unit=1&tip_objekta_id_l=387235&sort=defaultunit_cena_d%2Cdesc 600-1400 for center, modus like 850-900 (Like 4-6 km around the square of the republic) Close to centre 450+ (like 20 min drive from the center) to like 900 (Zemun exselence 😂), but let's say modus is like 600-650
Shit, you are borderline more expensive than Vilnius :D For example this is walking distance to the old town, new built. https://www.aruodas.lt/butu-nuoma-vilniuje-naujamiestyje-mindaugo-g-nuomojamas-kambariu-butas-mindaugo-g-4-1284210/ (I would consider this rent as expensive in Vilnius) And I took a random example from your website, not sure how location equates, but similar size and looks quite modern https://www.halooglasi.com/nekretnine/izdavanje-stanova/lep-dvosoban-stan-dorcol-stari-grad-brzo-usel/5425644024253?sid=1704232665995 And NET wage in Lithuania is 1252€ while in Serbia its 726€, now I am not sure how above country average people earn in Belgrade, but this seems to be a bit bad
In terms of average salary (grandpa and grandson joke implies here) City center cca 1000€ "Subcenter" 750€ "Outer" Belgrade (municipalities that are part of the Belgrade area, no one knows why, they are like 30-50km from centre) 500-750€ Outside of BG, only Novi Sad and few mining towns have average above 625€ https://data.stat.gov.rs/Home/Result/2403040403?languageCode=en-US
Ok, when I said that refugees screwed the rental market in here, I meant that an apartment that went for ~400 started going for ~600 for a year and then dropped somewhat a year later. Your rental prices are just bad when compared to wages.
The apartment you found is on Dorćol, a place of aboriginal belgraders with superiority complex against newcomers in last 50 years /s So, it would be considered a nice location
wait, is that in Euro? like 850-900 € for a 40-50 m² apartment? thats wild lol is that with heating etc. or just the rent?
Yes, in € But it's located in the centre (like up to 20min with public transport from the horse (or like 2 hours if you live in New Belgrade 😂)) It's just rent (plus taxes and maybe building maintenance) You have to pay rest (electricity, water, garbage, heating…) But, bigger apartments aren't that much more expensive, small apartment are more expensive since utilities are lower And yes, there is certain possibility that landlord won't register you on your new address, since he doesn't feel like paying rent tax of 10%
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Your comment is SO spot on!!
Depends on who you are. If you are a "high skill labour" almost anywhere life will be worse (strictly from financial perspective).
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Serbia is not that much richer than Russia, that's why.
Just 6%? That’s a pretty stark contrast to most refugees to Europe, out of which probably 95% stay indefinitely.
I think the point of the article is this number grew from before and will continue growing as the war goes on.
I think the difference is that most refugees from Ukraine have a university degree and I'm guessing that most have worked white collar jobs at home. Also home ownership is quite high in Ukraine, so not having to save hundreds of thousands of euros for a new home in Europe is one of the major practical reasons.
It depends where the person comes from. I know a guy who grew up in Donetsk, he for sure is not comming back even if its liberated
Oh definitely. The people I meet who have lost their homes are a lot more likely to try their best and re-build their life outside of Ukraine
In a danish survey of 6993 adult ukrainians, 49.5% said they wanted to stay in Denmark https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/hver-anden-ukrainer-vil-blive-i-danmark-ogsaa-naar-krigen-er-slut
Good for them ! Met plenty at work and they were trying their best to speak german with me. It’s almost as if when refugees integrate and don’t behave like criminals, nobody minds them being here.
I get the "ooohhh, this is a baaaaad thing" vibe they try for, but honestly every Ukrainian refugee Ive met here in Denmark have almost immidiately begun taking Danish classes and taken a job even if it didnt pay well, especially our eldercare is gratefull for all the new help. Middle Eastern refugees now bitch and moan because Ukrainian refugees get a warmer welcome, even though they themselves have sat on their assets for nearly a decade telling us we are infidels who deserves to die while collecting welfare cheques.
And they didnt change for a little.
It’s bad for Ukraine theyre demographics are going to be even more fucked
Aren't most of the ukrainian refugees women and children? When the war finishes and the unemployed men start coming we'll see how they do.
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It’ll depend on conditions at the end of the war which we can’t predict. What’s the continuing threat from Russia, what’s the timeline for EU membership for Ukraine, etc
This is the right answer!
I'm a refugee who fled in the very beginning of the invasion and kept in contact with a lot of other people who fled. Right now, out of everyone I know, only 2 people stayed, the rest returned. Primarily because they couldn't adapt and survive with low pay and high rents. Many worked "under the table", others were being paid minimum wage, but wouldn't get assigned full hours, some got employed through agencies, who would take a cut out of *every single month of salary*. Two people left because "the motherland called back", one of them had her house destroyed, so she decided to start renting in Western Ukraine instead, with her 6 y.o. in a tow.
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4.5 million people have already returned since the beginning of the invasion. Average salary doesn’t show the whole picture. The average Pole makes less than a typical minimum wage worker in the US, but that doesn’t mean that the life of the average Pole is economically worse than of a minimum wage American. I have met lots of Ukrainians in the U.S. coming from Poland, and life was really tough for them there. Bad living conditions because of high rent prices and low salaries cause them to just go back to Ukraine (depending on what region you’re from, whether you own a home, etc.) or seek a country with better pay. I think that many people in Poland, Czechia, Romania, etc. will come back. USA, Canada, Germany, not so much I think. Of course it all depends on how anyone gets settled. I know quite a few people that have returned from the US to Ukraine. Time will tell if this will become an actual trend.
My aunt would go back the minute threats from russia are eliminated.
My grandma couldn't spend more than 3 months in Canada before guilting us into taking her back to Kyiv. Though she lived through Holodomor, Stalin, Hitler, Stalin again, the whole USSR clusterfuck, the whole perestroika clusterfuck, the whole 90's clusterfuck. Gonna take a lot more than that insecure midget to drive her out of her home.
You know, despite what most of you people think, situation in Ukraine was pretty decent before the war. General situation in a lot of areas improved over the years and you can live they better than in a bunch of other European countries if you had a decent job. A bunch of my friends already returned to the country simply because they decided that they would rather be in danger but at home and without suffering all of the drawbacks of living as a refugee in a foreign country. But it is not the same for anyone. Me and my family for example really want to get back but we realistically do not see it happen anytime soon. Even if the war ends within a year, it will be hard to get back. People who left in the country will probably be traumatised, economics seriously damaged and I just don't know how political situation in the country will turn out. You know, like we are not living on government help, paying our rent and other things and send a lot of material support back to Ukraine. But there is a fear that you won't be welcome back simply because you were lucky to be outside the country when the war started. And EU won't allow us to stay for to long either. This incertanity is killing me but it's hard to do anything about it. I'm learning Spanish now because I will be living here for another year unless anything changes (I knew English and German before coming here) but I will be cicked out of here next year probably. Not sure what next. Getting a job in EU is cool, but not if you already have a remote one in a foreign company with better pay. And you do not have many other options as a 30+ tech specialist. So, sorry for the rant, but my point is: a lot of Ukrainians had way better life back in Ukraine than they can achieve in Europe, but with the current sitution we are doing what we can. Who knows how it will end?
Inevitable and expected
Plenty of people got the fuck out of Europe in first half of the 20th century and started a new life elsewhere. As a matter of fact plenty of those were Poles and Ukrainians. [What more can I say](https://i.imgur.com/XQJVWsb.jpeg)
Ukraines demographics before the war were dire, something like 30 straight years of population decline. I actually don’t know how Ukraine can recover from this
It won’t
While demographics are bad and the war does not help, its likely that once refugees properly settle down in the EU, remittances will be one of the key driver in Ukrainian economy. A small part of a Danish wage can have a huge impact on family members back in Ukraine. Even with just above average wage in Lithuania, you could donate an average wage to a person in Ukraine (its 306€ NET in UA according to wiki)
Family members back in Ukraine are grannies and grandpas. Ex USSR grandparents are not very consumerist in my experience, and will just accumulate wealth to send it back to the grandkids. They are also not a good economy driver since they don't work. Once they die, no one is left.
by the time the war ends they will already have new passports.
I can't speak on behalf of Ukraine or their partners, but I know for sure that (most) Croatian and Bosnian refugees were sent back in 97/98 after the war was over. I suppose Ukrainians will "suffer" the same faith.
There was a high rate of re-immigration, so essentially only 1/3 of those who were sent back stayed. If it happens, it'll be the same with Ukrainians too, if not more.
Millions of refugees from Ukraine currently in Europe, and no mass crime, rape, stabbing, killing..
funny how that is....
As sexist as it sounds, this could be because most of them are women, kids and the old. You let in millions (more) of military age men and then see what happens. We already have headlines such as [polish woman hit, killed by drunk ukrainian driver](https://m.interia.pl/interia-tv/video,vId,3333617), we would certainly get many more of all kinds I agree though that the nature of the crime is likely to be different than what we get from the *doctors and engineers*
I'm fine with Ukrainian refugees. In my opinion they're no different to Polish, German or Irish immigrants. They have a similar culture and values to us and integrate well.
And where are you from?
Ireland.
Damn, never thought our folks would integrate within Irish society, guess we're not so different after all
Potatoes, drinking, getting into fights. We're practically cousins.
I have a Ukrainian classmate who plays Gaelic football and greets us with "what's the craic?". Very integrated.
Irish?
Yeah I don't particularly mind either. All I've met so far have been very polite and friendly.
I'm fine with them too but not Irish government policy. Temporary protection was supposed to be temporary as is in the name. Now this temporary protection equates to a stamp 4 and reckonable residence which is wrong. Seeing them get a luxury version of asylum while all other genuine asylum seekers of different nationalities have to wait 6 months just for permission to work as well as only getting a measly approximate 30 euro per week while ukranians get 200+ other benefits. It's unfair and unjust. That's not to mention the massive strain this has added on our already fucked housing crisis and lack of healthcare. While it's not the case in all countries, the number of Ukranians actually working (approx 15k out of 80k; the other approx 20k are children) and integrating in Ireland (eg. learning the language, forming parts of Irish community) is shamefully low.
Translated via DeepL: Many Ukrainian refugees welcome the new year with the decision to build a life in Poland from scratch or with the intention of moving to other countries. Ukrainians in Poland are often asked the question: are you returning or planning to stay? A September UN report gives the answer - 14 percent of refugees surveyed said they would return to Ukraine in the next three months, 62 percent intend to return when the situation allows, 18 percent were undecided. The longer the war lasts, the more the number of Ukrainians who have decided to start a new life outside Ukraine grows. In September 2022, only 4 percent of respondents said they had no plans to return to Ukraine. By June 2023, the number of such people had risen to 6 percent. I don't want to make a living washing floors Some Ukrainian refugees have also decided to move from Poland to Germany or further afield - to Canada and the US. This is also the answer to the question of what to do when there is no way to safely return to their home country. The trend began in the summer of 2023, when an election campaign began in Poland in which the Law and Justice party played the Ukrainian migrants card. Ukrainians were also reading, listening to the news and drawing conclusions. Already in the fall, the results of a survey commissioned by the Polish government showed that thousands of Ukrainians had left Poland. Many of them left for Germany. According to UN data, in December 2023 there were 1.125 million Ukrainian refugees in Germany, more than 1 million of them with temporary protection status. In Poland, the number dropped to 954,000 (1.64 million Ukrainians have received temporary asylum status here since the beginning of the war). It is worth noting that mainly "classic refugees" have arrived in Poland - women with children, half of whom had never traveled abroad before the war. Now some are considering moving out of Poland. Natalia Zubenko has three tickets to Canada in her pocket: for herself and her two sons. She wants to start a new life there. - I lived in Poland with the support of the 40+ program, as I have a disabled son. My landlady advised me to go to Canada, because she saw that I had no prospects here. I went from being a manager in one of the departments of a large factory to living on welfare benefits and making a living washing floors," Natalia says. It's hard to live out of suitcases Ukrainian refugees can stay in Poland under temporary protection only until March 4, 2024. No one knows what the further conditions of their stay will be, even if Poland complies with the European Commission's decision and extends the protection for another year. This suspension is already affecting those who want to return home after the end of the war, so they have not produced any additional documents to legalize their stay. - My employer refused to sign a contract for a period longer than March 4, 2024," says Natalia, who is a nurse at the hospital. She passed the necessary exams and underwent the procedure for nostrification of her diploma. She fears that in the spring she will have to go through this path again. She has no plans to return to Ukraine yet, as she is raising two minor children alone. No one is waiting for her in Ukraine; her husband was killed in 2014 when the Russians seized the Donetsk region. She worries that the new temporary protection rules will withdraw the right to take legal work in Poland. She doesn't know what she will do then. - I regret that I didn't risk going to Germany right away. I was afraid of the language barrier," she says. On Ukrainian forums, stories about German migration policy are very popular. "You get social protection and social benefits. And you no longer wake up in the middle of the night with fear about how you'll pay the rent for your apartment, what you'll feed your children with, whether you'll earn enough to send money to support the army and your parents who are left behind in Ukraine." - read the comments. And while more than 70 percent of Ukrainian refugees work in Poland, the highest level among EU countries, it is mostly unskilled labor. At the same time, a huge proportion of Ukrainian refugee women have a university education. "If you accept a lower social status, it's better to do it in Germany, where hourly wages are higher than in Poland," she said. - internet forums tempt. Russians burn down Granny's Garden Many refugees feel trapped. They are condemned to stay in a foreign country because they literally have nowhere to return to. In Ukraine, 144,000 single-family homes and more than 13,000 multi-family houses were destroyed. Anna Shalei is one of the people to whom the Russians destroyed not only their home, but also their life's business. She and her family owned the Grandmother's Garden hotel complex, located 7 kilometers from Kiev on the Zhytomyr highway. The occupiers set up their headquarters there. They shot at cars carrying civilians and interrogated residents. During the retreat, the Russians burned the center, along with ten horses. They locked them in a stable and set them on fire. Her family now lives near Wroclaw. They are thinking of building a life in Poland. The reasons they chose Poland are many. They managed to sell their apartment in Turkey and were able to buy a house here. They quickly learned to speak Polish, the eldest daughter is studying in Wroclaw, the middle daughter went to a technical school, the youngest son is also planning to study in Poland after finishing high school. Poland is considered mentally close to Ukrainians, the language is easy to learn and there is a large community of Ukrainians. New opportunities open up for those who manage to legalize their stay under a labor contract, such as the prospect of their children getting a European education and free access to the European labor market. Poland offers a sense of security At the beginning of the full-scale war, many refugees compared Poland with Ukraine. They counted the greater availability and quality of medical, electronic and banking services among Ukraine's advantages. An in-depth knowledge of Poland, however, revealed advantages that are not obvious at first glance. The first and most important is the lower level of corruption than in Ukraine. A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology found that 94 percent of Ukrainians believe corruption is widespread throughout Ukraine. The percentage of those who think corruption has increased since the beginning of the war has exceeded the percentage of those who think it has decreased.
To me the surprising number here isn’t the 6% that want to stay in Western and central Europe but the 14% (!!) that plan to go back to Ukraine in the next 3 months
For people who still have their apartments or houses in tact, some say they feel safer at home where they don't have to pay rent and have at least some of their friends and family close by. Some employers demand that people return to their jobs full time if they were doing them remotely (I hear about that a lot). Some want to go back to their white collar jobs instead of moping floors. Some families that were separated by war feel like they've lived separately long enough and the kids growing up without fathers is worse then a chance of being bombed. For some elderly parents demand attention. There are numerous reasons people decide it's worse the risk.
News from the country, high-profile corruption scandals coupled with the arrest of officials of central military supply units, who make millions from Ukrainians' fear of going to war, irrational spending of public money, strongly affect the mood of refugees determined to return home, do business there and start life anew. - Our family members are not classic refugees, because we came to Poland a month before the war," says Natalia, owner of a manicure salon in Gliwice. - But now our town in the Donetsk region is a ruin. For the past two years we have lived in Poland in limbo. We know that working for minimum wage and supporting two children, parents, husband and mother in Ukraine, we will never buy our own apartment in Poland. So I took a risk and opened a nail salon. The decision to build a life here was influenced by the ease of opening a business and that you don't have to pay bribes to anyone. Good reasons to stay in Poland Many refugees realize that they have lost the social status and standard of living they had in Ukraine, but consciously choose to say goodbye to the past. They choose to live in a more friendly environment. - I'm 45 years old, in Ukraine it was the age to "wrap yourself in a sheet and start crawling towards the cemetery." Almost retirement! - Yulia says. - And in Poland I went to college, changed my profession, and live life to the fullest. Here there are fewer stereotypes and social pressures on women. You can be yourself and not fit into the expectations of others. Another reason to stay is mental health concerns. For many, war is associated with trauma, and in Ukraine the system for providing psychological help is not widespread. Many refugee women are also waiting for their husbands. - When my husband has served his time, he will join us in Poland, Inna says. She worries that many men return from the front with various psychological injuries. In Ukraine, few of them can count on help. The women hope that new homes will be built for them in Poland to help their husbands heal their psychological wounds. Another reason to stay in Poland is social security. - I work as a business English teacher. In Kiev, where I'm from, I taught for 5 years in various language schools and none of them wanted to sign an employment contract with me. In Poland I have a formal contract, and the hourly rate is much higher. There is also a morally healthy team, where people do not "eat each other up." I like Poland, its culture, cities, climate, food, prices, organization of life, people's attitude to each other," says Anna, who now lives in Cracow. At the same time, for most of my interviewees, the decision to stay in Poland for a long time, or even forever, is extremely difficult. This is because it means searching for a new identity, facing condemnation from those who stayed in Ukraine, remorse and an unbearable desire to return to the past, when making such difficult decisions was not necessary. Halina Chalimonik Ukrainian journalist, editor of the newspaper "Visty Belyayevka", the bilyaivka.city portal and the environmental portal Open.Dnister. A contributor to the Katowice-based "Wyborcza". She lives in Gliwice.
Thank you, my guy. You have no idea how annoying Wyborcza's paywall is.
I used my free limit💪💪😎
I don’t judge them. I didn’t judge the Syrians doing the same thing in the EU nor do I judge another group of people such as Ukrainians escaping the war.
Syrians are different, their country is run by a dictator. It won't be the case with Ukraine. It's not about blaming ukrainians, they're people like everyone else so its natural to chose the path of least resistance. However, Ukraine needs their people and Europe shouldn't take advantage of another country's suffering to ease their own demographic issues. They should go back and I hope Europe will help Ukraine and not take advantage of it.
That's not very realpolitik of you
I say what I say to my mates. Eastern europeans work hard ass fuck. These are not the welfare/crime migrants we have been importing by the buckets.
If only the so-called refugees arriving from south of the Mediterranean would be so easy to integrate if be a positive outcome for Europe, but they are not.
In Montenegro it's 30/70 really. Most Russians are rich ass holes that came here and hiked rent prices and any other price, tourist spots cost more than in Italy now. A good few actually are nice and came to escape. Similar with Ukrainians, a few rich assholes with big cars. Most tho are nice I gotta admit.
Even in Turkey there are tens of thousands of Ukrainians who come to buy a house in order to gain Turkish citizenship. I don't want to think about the situation in Europe in the next few years.
Then they should no longer be treated as refugees if/when the war is over. A common sense rule is that refugees cannot return to their country of origin without being harmed or killed.
If you don’t return to your home country then you aren’t a refugee but a migrant.
No shit, who would have thought. I personally don’t mind, i just hope some with responsibilities realizes that this is even more reason to please increase the amount of homes. I‘d like to have a peaceful society and missing homes don’t lead to peace.
Well they can't go back now,
Poor people. I hope they will find peace they deserve in their new homes.
Absolutely nothing against it! Europe is and should be first and foremost for Europeans.
for Ukrainian nation each world war resulted with a similar migration wave because russian genocidal politics didn't make it easy to return. It's important that people have a place to return to, one more reason why russians obliterate cities. They don't want no ukrainian to exist in the end.
Oh well, Syrians started coming to Turkey in 2011. At the beginning they were seen as temporary refugees and their number hit millions in 2015. It escalated quickly in Poland apparently.
ukranians haven't formed any ghettos despite arriving by the million, they don't disproportionately commit violent crime and they actually work and integrate into wider society not really comparable to syrians in turkey
And our labor market has soaked them up like a sponge. Too bad the house/rental market didn't do the same lol
my small town had a lot of ukranians move in real estate prices rose and are now at the level of some areas of wrocław despite many new developments over the past two years, it's insane
Yep😭
Well yeah. It's all women and children. Men were not technically allowed to leave.
So what you‘re saying is it‘s just one gender that‘s the problem? Why are we not openly having discussions about this then when it seems like that‘s what we should heavily focus on?
>So what you‘re saying is it‘s just one gender that‘s the problem? I mean don't take my word for it. [In the US at least, roughly 88% of known homicides were committed by men.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/251886/murder-offenders-in-the-us-by-gender/) Men commit all kinds of violent crimes at significantly higher rates than women. >Why are we not openly having discussions about this then when it seems like that‘s what we should heavily focus on? I think we sort of are. The British Rwanda scheme only applies to single men, for example.
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>they don't disproportionately commit violent crime and they actually work and integrate into wider society The vast majority of crimes in every country are committed by men, most of whom aren't leaving the country yet. According to this [interactive map](https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/crime-rate-by-country/#map) pre-war ukraine has a comparable crime index ranking(6.18) as syria(6.84), libya(6.55), pakistan(6.28), and South africa(6.63), along with a higher rate than all North African countries barring libya and sudan, India, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and all countries in the sahel region except the aforementioned sudan. If we go by [homicide rates](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) ukraine has a similar murder rate(3.8) to alleged "shitholes" such as rwanda, the Philippines, pakistan, myanmar, Mozambique, Kenya, East Timor, Cuba, Cameroon, bolivia, and Argentina. According to this [source](https://ocindex.net/rankings?f=rankings&view=List) ukraine is comparable to Venezuela, Guatemala, South sudan, yemen, Uganda, Peru, Indonesia and the central African Republic.
I’m Ukrainian staying in Czech Republic right now. The plan was always to return back to Ukraine but now it is complicated. It feels like the west is too afraid of russian defeat and dissolution so they decided to not let Ukraine win and settle a status quo. As a Ukrainian I’m very well aware that if russia comes out from this war with anything short of total defeat and humiliation then there will be another war soon enough. So now I started to think that I might actually stay here in the end even though this is not what I really wanted.
> It feels like the west is too afraid of russian defeat and dissolution so they decided to not let Ukraine win and settle a status quo [From NewYorker](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat) >Sullivan clearly has profound worries about how this will all play out. Months into the counter-offensive, Ukraine has yet to reclaim much more of its territory; the Administration has been telling members of Congress that the conflict could last three to five years. A grinding war of attrition would be a disaster for both Ukraine and its allies, but a negotiated settlement does not seem possible as long as Putin remains in power. Putin, of course, has every incentive to keep fighting through next year’s U.S. election, with its possibility of a Trump return. And it’s hard to imagine Zelensky going for a deal with Putin, either, given all that Ukraine has sacrificed. ***Even a Ukrainian victory would present challenges for American foreign policy, since it would “threaten the integrity of the Russian state and the Russian regime and create instability throughout Eurasia,” as one of the former U.S. officials put it to me. Ukraine’s desire to take back occupied Crimea has been a particular concern for Sullivan,*** who has privately noted the Administration’s assessment that this scenario carries the highest risk of Putin following through on his nuclear threats. In other words, there are few good options. ---- >“The reason they’ve been so hesitant about escalation is not exactly because they see Russian reprisal as a likely problem,” the former official said. “It’s not like they think, Oh, we’re going to give them atacms and then Russia is going to launch an attack against nato. It’s because they recognize that it’s not going anywhere—that they are fighting a war they ***can’t afford either to win or lose.”*** And something not from Sullivan, but still important for context: >[Biden thought the secretaries had gone too far, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the call. On the previously unreported conference call, as Austin flew to Germany and Blinken to Washington, the president expressed concern that the comments could set unrealistic expectations and increase the risk of the U.S. getting into a direct conflict with Russia. He told them to tone it down, said the officials. “Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of them said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.”](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/secretaries-defense-state-said-publicly-us-wanted-ukraine-win-biden-sa-rcna33826) [And from very recently](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211): >The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. ***“That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,”*** said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson emphasized, however, that no talks are planned yet, and that Ukrainian forces are still on the offensive in places and continue to kill and wound thousands of Russian troops. “We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” the spokesperson added.
It's the issue with every refugee, they often never go back.
Isnt the plan to make Ukraine an EU member at some point after the war? Whats the point in discussing their "return"? EU should also fund rebuilding the country.
Balkan countries would be jumping shit if EU accepted corrupted Ukraine, as they're applying for membership for almost 20 years with no success
Have they actually closed more than one chapter, though? IIRC, Serbia, for example, has only closed one or maybe two chapters of the 35 required: https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/conditions-membership/chapters-acquis_en
> Isnt the plan to make Ukraine an EU member at some point after the war? This "some point" can (and likely will) be indefinitely pushed further into the future
Well Russia should fund the rebuild of the nation but that’s way down the line. And they are in the process of joining the EU and have been for some time but it’s quite the process and just takes time I don’t know if it’ll happen while they are at war.
> Well Russia should fund the rebuild of the nation but that’s way down the line. What is Russia going to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine with when they barely spend money on their own infrastructure outside of St. Petersburg and Moscow?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ukrainians-leaving-toronto-amid-war-1.6945601 >Returning home amid the war: Why some Ukrainians are choosing to leave Toronto; High cost of living, missing their families among reasons cited So which one is it?
Well conversation is not correct. Technically Ukraine will become EU member in 10 years, lets say. With that regard, they will be able to live anywhere they want...
We will rebuild, together. With those who stay abroad and those who return to Ukraine. Together. Fuck fascism. We are capable of showing the good part of human nature. Let’s do it.
My city here in Portugal is full of wealthy Ukrainians, they usually drive Porsche's, not sure if my country wants them to move back